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Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank

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Speaker 1: you all for being here. So I have some polling

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Speaker 1: data that I think you liked hear, and then I

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Speaker 1: want to get to the main topic to discuss. But

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Speaker 1: on the polling data, a poll from Equis Research came out. Now,

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Speaker 1: this is a liberal polling firm that specializes in American

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Speaker 1: Hispanics and the Hispanic vote.

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Speaker 2: And they're not the most accurate.

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Speaker 1: They did estimate that Trump was going to lose the

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Speaker 1: Hispanic vote in swing states by eighteen points in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, and he only lost them by ten points.

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Speaker 1: So it's not a great firm, but they put out

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Speaker 1: some data that I think is important because no one

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Speaker 1: else has put it out so far. So I want

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Speaker 1: you to take it with a grain of salts, but

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Speaker 1: understand it's important. It may be like, you know, liberal wishcasting,

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Speaker 1: but they're the only ones asking this question as we

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Speaker 1: go into the twenty twenty six election. So the poll

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Speaker 1: looks at Latinos that voted for Biden in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: and then Trump in twenty twenty four. So the first

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Speaker 1: first part of the poll is they looked at Latinos

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Speaker 1: that back from twenty twenty twenty four, and they find

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Speaker 1: that they are less likely to show up in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six than Latinos that voted for Harris. Now, that

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be shocking because Trump's support came from younger men,

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Speaker 1: it came from people without college degrees, people who don't

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Speaker 1: vote as often lower pensity voters, so it's not surprising

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Speaker 1: that they're not showing up in huge numbers like maybe

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Speaker 1: college educated Latinos are, or Latino senior citizens or women.

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Speaker 1: The Pole also finds so that Latinos disapprove of Trump's

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Speaker 1: tariffs and is handling of the economy. Now, once again,

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Speaker 1: that's also not surprising because it's in line with every

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Speaker 1: other poll. People feel like the tariffs are attacks and

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Speaker 1: that you know, the media has been pushing this idea

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Speaker 1: that there's a recession around the corner that they're wishing

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Speaker 1: into existence, and they're all affected by it. Everyone's affected

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Speaker 1: by it because they're nervous and they're uncertain. Nonetheless, the

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Speaker 1: Pole states that disapprove for Trump's for Trump's handling the

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Speaker 1: economy has not transferred over to broad support for the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: And this is where it gets really interesting. The poll

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Speaker 1: found that among Latinos who voted for Trump in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, only eight percent say they're committed to voting

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Speaker 1: for Democrats in twenty twenty six. In the House and Senate.

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Speaker 1: Among Biden defectors, those are Latinos that voted for Biden

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty and then Trump in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: the numbers who are committed to voting for Democrats are

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Speaker 1: at thirty one percent. Another twenty percent say they're undecided.

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Speaker 1: That means one in three Latinos who consistently voted for

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Speaker 1: Democrats up till twenty twenty four are saying they're switching

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Speaker 1: back to the Democratic Party. That may seem like a

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Speaker 1: high number, and it's decently high, especially if you're in

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Speaker 1: a heavily Latino district that barely voted for Trump, like

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Speaker 1: Nelly Poe in New Jersey's ninth district or Gave Vasquez

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Speaker 1: in New Mexico's second. But it's not where Democrats really

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Speaker 1: want to be. Democrats were always expecting some kind of

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Speaker 1: revival with their former voters who took a chance on Trump.

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Speaker 1: After all, like the consequence of being an incumbent and

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Speaker 1: being in office is you actually have to achieve something,

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Speaker 1: and there's always an area, a gray area of disappointment

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Speaker 1: with all voters, for all candidates, whether it doesn't matter

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Speaker 1: if you're Obama or Biden or Trump. There's always going

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Speaker 1: to be someone who supported you who feels disappointed in you.

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Speaker 1: And that's just the name of the game, and every

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Speaker 1: elected official has that. But that being said, Democrats really

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Speaker 1: needed to get to a space where they were winning

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Speaker 1: a majority of Biden Trump Latinos and they're nowhere near

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Speaker 1: that number, which means maybe we've hit a new floor

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Speaker 1: of support for Latinos who back Republicans, and that the

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Speaker 1: growth we saw in twenty twenty four is basically here

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Speaker 1: to stay.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I've had several analysts on the show, you know, Zachary

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Speaker 1: Denini said the same thing, and other data scientists have

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Speaker 1: sat there and said that they expected Republicans support among

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Speaker 1: Latinos to continue to grow and basically some of the

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Speaker 1: changes that we saw in red states like Texas and

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Speaker 1: Arizona and blue states like California, New York, New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: and Illinois could be here to stay. Very important data

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Speaker 1: set will have a lot more as the election comes forward,

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Speaker 1: but this is the first poll to look at this

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Speaker 1: crucial group and you know, you may not think this

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Speaker 1: is a huge win for Republicans. It's certainly not a

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Speaker 1: home run, but it is not a home run for Democrats,

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Speaker 1: especially the numbers that they were hoping to get to. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So for the main topic of this episode, I asked

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Speaker 1: you guys several months ago if you wanted me to

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Speaker 1: hit on politics from abroad, especially in Europe, and you

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Speaker 1: said yes. So that's what I'm gonna do today. The

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Speaker 1: UK has had a series of major political upheavals in

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Speaker 1: the last few months that the American media has ignored,

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Speaker 1: but you should pay attention to. First, and possibly the

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Speaker 1: most consequential piece of information is that the former leader

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Speaker 1: of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin, announced that he intends

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Speaker 1: to create his own new far left party called Your Party.

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Speaker 1: The new party will have a host of far left positions,

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Speaker 1: especially related to the Israel and Palestine conflict. Now, if

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Speaker 1: you don't remember Jeremy Corbyn, he was the leader of

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Speaker 1: the Party of the Labor Party for four and a

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Speaker 1: half years and he was one of the most viscerally

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Speaker 1: anti Semitic mainstream candidates in all of Europe and the

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Speaker 1: Labor Party did terribly under his leadership. Throughout his political career,

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Speaker 1: Corbin has supported things like overturning convictions of Islamic terrorists

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Speaker 1: who bombed the Israeli embassy in London. He supported the

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Speaker 1: Iranian regime. He stood next to speakers at an event

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Speaker 1: where they call the BBC Zionist liars. It was so

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Speaker 1: bad that the UK Human Rights watchdog group so that

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Speaker 1: the Labor Party was responsible for quote, unlawful acts of

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Speaker 1: harassment and discrimination during Corbyn's four and a half years

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Speaker 1: as the party leader. This is at a time when

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Speaker 1: activist within the Labor Party said things like all Jews

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Speaker 1: in Israel should be relocated to the US. That they

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Speaker 1: also said that the creation of Israel is what Hitler

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Speaker 1: really wanted and that Jews were really responsible for the

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Speaker 1: Atlantic slave trade. Corbin was kicked out of the Labor Party,

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Speaker 1: but you can tell that who his new coalition is

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Speaker 1: based on the people who've been saying they're going to

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Speaker 1: join your party, and they're all Muslim MPs. They're all

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Speaker 1: Muslim members of Parliament. Other policies championed by your party

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Speaker 1: will include wealth redistribution, nationalizing industries, and actions against climate

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Speaker 1: change basically your standard socialism. Now your party doesn't have

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Speaker 1: a lot of support, especially not compared to Nija Faraj's

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Speaker 1: Reform UK, but they're eating away at Labor parties already

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Speaker 1: falling numbers. A Fine Out Now poll from July seventeenth

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Speaker 1: has Reform UK this is the Nigel Faraj new nationalist

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Speaker 1: populist party at thirty four percent, The Conservatives are known

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Speaker 1: as the Tories, are at seventeen percent, and Labor is

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Speaker 1: tied with your party at fifteen percent. Remember, Labor is

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Speaker 1: the one the last election, so being tied for fourth

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Speaker 1: or third is not where you want to be. Other

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Speaker 1: left wing parties like the Liberal Democrats and Greens are

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Speaker 1: also losing support to Korbyn's party. The growing instability among

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Speaker 1: the left is worrying Labor leaders as their poll number sink.

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Speaker 1: A July twenty twenty five poll from YUGA found that

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Speaker 1: Labour's unfabrile writing is sixty six percent and their favorable

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Speaker 1: writing is only twenty three percent. That's worse than both

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Speaker 1: the Conservatives and the Reform UK leaders numbers. Labor leaders

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Speaker 1: are asking themselves a question, do they try to tack

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Speaker 1: to the center and even the right, especially on issues

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Speaker 1: like immigration to win over former voters who are moved

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Speaker 1: over to Nijel Faraj, Or do they move to the

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Speaker 1: far left to keep Jeremy corbynet Bay and basically win

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Speaker 1: over some liberal Democrats and some green voters. In the

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Speaker 1: midst of all this news from the far left are

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Speaker 1: the ongoing protests against mass immigration throughout the country, and

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Speaker 1: there's a reasonable question of whether things are getting so

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Speaker 1: bad that we may expect to see violence break out

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Speaker 1: in multiple cities. With me to discuss as the British

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Speaker 1: journalist who knows what's happening in the mother country, and

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Speaker 1: he'll be up to discuss.

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Speaker 2: Next with me on.

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Speaker 1: This episode is Freddie Gray. He is the deputy editor

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Speaker 1: of The Spectator and the editor of the American Spectator.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for being here, Freddie.

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Speaker 2: Good after day runs. Lovely to be with you.

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Speaker 1: So, Freddie, what I told my listeners from the get

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Speaker 1: go is this new party called Your Party by former

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Speaker 1: Labor leader Jeremy Corbin, that it kind of had a

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Speaker 1: very messy announcement, but polling have showed that he will

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Speaker 1: eat heavily into the labor numbers. He's at fifteen percent

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Speaker 1: in the most recent more in common poll eat at

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Speaker 1: Liberal Democrat numbers. When the Labor Party is looking at

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Speaker 1: where they stand in the nation as a whole, right now,

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Speaker 1: are they saying, let's move to the left to win

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Speaker 1: over those voters, or should we move to the center

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Speaker 1: to stop Nigel Farage from continuing to surge in the polls?

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Speaker 2: Well, the Labor Polity is in an extremely peculiar and

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Speaker 2: bad position considering what a position of strength it was

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Speaker 2: in just a year ago. They won a huge majority.

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Speaker 2: But they won a huge majority in a rather sort

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Speaker 2: of freakish election because you had reform on the right

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Speaker 2: doing very well and the Conservatives doing pretty badly. I mean,

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Speaker 2: historically the worst of the Conservatives ever done. But the

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Speaker 2: right vote was especially was pretty much split, and so

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Speaker 2: therefore Labour got a huge majority with actually not that

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Speaker 2: big a share of the electorate, and they have had

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Speaker 2: a disastrous year. I think it's objectively fair to say

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Speaker 2: you talk to Labor people, they would admit that it's

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Speaker 2: been a disastrous year. And what happened to the Conservative

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Speaker 2: Party is it seems going to happen to Labor, which

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Speaker 2: is a threat, an insurgent threat from the extreme end

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Speaker 2: of the party. The left in this case, which is

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Speaker 2: Jeremy Corbyn and Zara Sultana. Who are these two? I mean, well,

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Speaker 2: your listeners probably might know about this, but Jeremy Corbyn

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Speaker 2: was blindsided by the announcement. He didn't even know that

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Speaker 2: this party has been having been Labor leader of the

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Speaker 2: Labor Party, and it took him about twenty four hours

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Speaker 2: to confirm that, yes, he was doing this. But nobody

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Speaker 2: quite knows if this party is real. It's a bit

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Speaker 2: like Elil Muss's America Party. It's sort of a lot

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Speaker 2: of excitement about it. A lot of people think it

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Speaker 2: makes sense and then it happens where it isn't like

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Speaker 2: Elon muss America Party. Is I think it is a

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Speaker 2: serious threat. You think it's a serious threat for Labor, Yes,

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Speaker 2: I mean so Labor this week recognized or said that

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Speaker 2: they would recognize Palestine at the UN. And that is

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Speaker 2: purely because of concerns. Not purely that's too cynical. That

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Speaker 2: is largely driven, I would say by it concerns about

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Speaker 2: internal dissent over the issue. Kirstarma does not want to

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Speaker 2: be anti Israel at all. He became leader because he

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Speaker 2: campaigned against anti Semitism of the Labor Party under Jeremy Corbyn,

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Speaker 2: and so he has found himself boxed in by two

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Speaker 2: hundred or so MPs who wrote a letter demanding that

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Speaker 2: Labor recognized the state of Palestine, and so they have

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Speaker 2: come up with this extraordinary fudge this week, which is

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Speaker 2: to say we will recognize the state of Palestine. If

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Speaker 2: there is no ceasefire and if aid doesn't reach the

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Speaker 2: Palestinians and if Harmas does not return Hosedges, we will

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Speaker 2: recognize the state of Palestine, which is odd because even

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Speaker 2: if you're very pro Palestinian, it's essentially saying you have

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Speaker 2: to keep suffering and dying and we will recognize you

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Speaker 2: as the state. But if Israel suddenly declares ceasefire floods

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Speaker 2: the zone with humanitarian aid, we'll go back to not

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Speaker 2: recognizing Palestine's the state. So it's completely incoherent, and it's

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Speaker 2: because they're terribly torn with this issue and they have

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Speaker 2: this threat from the left with Jeremy Colbyn and sorrow Sultoma.

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Speaker 1: Well, let me ask about Nigel Farage's It's funny because

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Speaker 1: Reform UK is not a big party. They've won a

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Speaker 1: total of seven elections since they really launched a year ago,

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Speaker 1: a year and a half ago, I guess, and already

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Speaker 1: two of their members have defected, but one was pushed

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Speaker 1: out and onee deffected.

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Speaker 2: That gives a lot of question over.

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Speaker 1: His ability to lead the most popular party and keep

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Speaker 1: it together, because you, I mean, to do the reforms

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Speaker 1: he's talking about, you would.

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Speaker 2: Need a strong leader.

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Speaker 1: And Farage is definitely positively the most consequential living British

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Speaker 1: politician right now, already in his career. But he can

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Speaker 1: he really lead to people believe that he could lead

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Speaker 1: the country.

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Speaker 2: It's that's the question that everybody's asking on the rights

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Speaker 2: of British politics at the moment. I mean, it's odd

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Speaker 2: because you talk to concerns and they will say, yes,

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Speaker 2: we're in big trouble. Reform are doing so well, but

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Speaker 2: they are going to emplay. They're going to blow up. Look,

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Speaker 2: they're already fighting like rats in a sack. I had

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Speaker 2: you know Niger Farrage. He's a great TV guy, he's

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Speaker 2: a great communicator, but he's not really serious about being

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Speaker 2: Prime minister, et cetera, et cetera. They say all this,

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Speaker 2: and it's true to a certain extent. I think Farage

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Speaker 2: is a bit of an enigma. But it's certainly true

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Speaker 2: that the party keeps having fallouts and squabbles and so on,

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Speaker 2: and yet they're leading the poll. Polls just gets bigger

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Speaker 2: or bigger and bigger. They are now on course. You know,

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Speaker 2: if the polls are correct, they would win a general

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Speaker 2: election tomorrow. And I at the moment, I cannot see

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Speaker 2: how they are stopped. And they have this Trump like

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Speaker 2: momentum of it doesn't matter. You can have a major

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Speaker 2: scandal about reform, you know, a corruption scandal, and you

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Speaker 2: probably will and the electorate would just say no, that's

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Speaker 2: the leads again. Just the hatred of the two policies

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Speaker 2: is so intense that the labor and the conservative polity

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Speaker 2: is so intense in this country it's hard to exaggerate.

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Speaker 2: And they deserve it, you know. I think everybody agrees

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Speaker 2: that the labor and Conservatives deserve to be disinfranchised and disinboweled.

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Speaker 2: Some people would say, yeah.

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Speaker 1: I saw my friend Ann Coulter on GBN News a

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Speaker 1: few days ago. She was on with Nigel and he

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Speaker 1: is not as I hate seeing the word far right,

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Speaker 1: but as as nationalist as I think some Americans especially

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Speaker 1: would hope that he would be because he was talking

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Speaker 1: about she was talking about deportations, and he was not

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Speaker 1: super firm on it. He's become more firm, but there

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Speaker 1: have been times where he was pretty much like, no,

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Speaker 1: we can't do mass deportations, and now he's like, oh,

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Speaker 1: maybe we could do some master deportetions of illegals.

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Speaker 2: I think he's moving to the right.

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Speaker 1: Is it that he just the last man standing or

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Speaker 1: does he genuinely is he a weather vane for the

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Speaker 1: mood of the country.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think, funnily enough, I saw An called it

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Speaker 2: this morning and and we were discussing reform as well.

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Speaker 2: I think it's interesting. There are some Conservatives now who

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Speaker 2: are very despondent about their leader, Kemmy Badendock, who's been

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Speaker 2: a bit of a failure, been a bit of a

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Speaker 2: disaster about and yeah, they think they think that there's

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Speaker 2: the the opening for them. There's this is a small

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Speaker 2: section of the party but quite an influential section of

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Speaker 2: the Conservative body. They think the space that's opening up

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Speaker 2: to them is to the right of Nigel Faraj. Because

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Speaker 2: Farage is trying to professionalize his party. He has this chairman,

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Speaker 2: Zia Yusuf, who was he seemed to quit and then

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Speaker 2: he came back and no one knows what's going on

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Speaker 2: there but za Yusif is a It was.

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Speaker 1: It was like the announcement of the KORbin Party. He

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Speaker 1: quit but no one knew it, and he came back

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Speaker 1: without anyone knowing.

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Speaker 2: Remember it was it was, it was. It was farstical,

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Speaker 2: even by the standards of British politics. But their use

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Speaker 2: of is obviously a he's a Muslim and he's a

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Speaker 2: you know, he seems pretty conservative about immigration and so on,

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Speaker 2: but he is he doesn't want the party to be

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Speaker 2: the sort of toxic what he would regard as the

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Speaker 2: toxic anti immigrant party. They want to be anti immigration,

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Speaker 2: anti illegal immigration particularly, but they don't want to be

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Speaker 2: anti immigrant and they think that they are finding the

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Speaker 2: new center ground. And if you look at some of

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Speaker 2: their bust ups that they've had with this MP called

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Speaker 2: Rupert Lowe, that was partly because Elon Musk kept retweeting

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Speaker 2: Rupert low and not Nigel Flowers was part of the reason,

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Speaker 2: but it was also because Rupert Lowe was considered a

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Speaker 2: bit too right wing, a bit too toxic.

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Speaker 1: So what my American answer doesn't know Rupert Lowe is

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Speaker 1: a member of Parliament for he was like to with

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Speaker 1: a Form UK party. He's very popular in his constituency

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Speaker 1: and he was probably the most concerned an immigration, fully

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Speaker 1: embracing mass deportations and all the rest of it. And

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Speaker 1: the leader of the Reform UK insisted that a year

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Speaker 1: ago he had bullied him, and he was ill said,

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Speaker 1: but there's really no evidence he was bullying him. It

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Speaker 1: does seem like it was kind of made up. It

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Speaker 1: was a year prior to he had not mentioned it

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Speaker 1: for a year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a sort of cooked top meat too

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Speaker 2: eat type.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a little strange. And then since then

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Speaker 1: another member of Reform has followed him and has also

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Speaker 1: said we need mass deportations, we know no immigration. James

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Speaker 1: I can't name his last name, but his first name

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Speaker 1: is Chance. He was in Reform UK. So then you're

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Speaker 1: just backstory for those who don't know.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so the two people who've left, the two MP's

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Speaker 2: have left, and you know they don't have many m pieces,

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Speaker 2: quite substantial that they've lost two. So they both left

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Speaker 2: because they sort of felt that the party wasn't really

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Speaker 2: representing the true anger of the British people. Was something

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Speaker 2: like that, and that shows to some Conservatives who now

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Speaker 2: think maybe they need to get rid of Kemmy Bayden.

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Speaker 2: I know you want to talk about her to say,

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Speaker 2: they're thinking, well, maybe the opportunity then is to team

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Speaker 2: up with people like Rupert Lowe and go really, really,

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Speaker 2: quite quite seriously to the right. Obviously that's going to

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Speaker 2: cause even more problems for the Conservative Party because a

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Speaker 2: lot of the Conservative electorate, the Conservative base are not

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Speaker 2: like that at all.

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Speaker 1: Well, okay, so let's talk about the Conservatives and Cammy.

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Speaker 1: Kemmy is somebody that I've always thought was a weak link.

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Speaker 1: I've always told my British Conservative friends, you like her

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Speaker 1: because she's a black woman, and you just don't want

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Speaker 1: to be called a racist. And that is really because

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Speaker 1: she's there's nothing remotely interesting. She's not that's right, she's

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Speaker 1: not a great speaker, she's not really to where the

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Speaker 1: base of the party is and or where the mood

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Speaker 1: of the country is. And they just said no, wait

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Speaker 1: and see. And now now the Tories, which is horrendous

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Speaker 1: in the last election, are even lower. They're pulling around

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent and most polls, which would be I mean,

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Speaker 1: they there are polls that they estimate the toy so sorry,

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Speaker 1: the Conservatives would go under thirty seats in the House

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Speaker 1: of Presenters, which would fundamentally make them a minor party

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Speaker 1: even smaller on a lib dam. Why does Keemy still

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Speaker 1: have her job? Well, it's very interesting.

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Speaker 2: Probably the reason she still has her job is because

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Speaker 2: the toys have killed so many leaders recently. They just

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Speaker 2: don't want to do it again. They can't face the

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Speaker 2: psychodrama of doing it again. They know that the public

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Speaker 2: thinks that they're a mess, and they think they'll look.

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Speaker 2: Like I said, there's some putting on it. Keeping up

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Speaker 2: appearances is part of it. But you're quite right to

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Speaker 2: your political antenna is absolutely right as ever, Ryan, that

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Speaker 2: I mean, Kemy is has been a complete failure so far.

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Speaker 2: She is not an impressive speaker, despite her reputation as

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Speaker 2: an impressive speaker. She's not tremendously bright, despite the fact

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Speaker 2: she constantly quotes for dis scrutin and people like that.

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Speaker 2: She she she is said to be, and I could

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Speaker 2: sort of vouch from it because she used to work

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Speaker 2: at the Spectator where I work. She's pretty lazy, said

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Speaker 2: not not overly across the detail, and she seems to

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Speaker 2: be nervous. I think the job is bigger than her

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Speaker 2: that The New Statesman, which is our rival magazine on

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Speaker 2: the left, did a very interesting profile of her last week.

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Speaker 2: It was called Kemy Isn't working and I mean it

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Speaker 2: was pretty devastating. I have to say it. A lot

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Speaker 2: of Tory quotes on and off the record saying pretty

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Speaker 2: much what all conservatives will say if you've talked to

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Speaker 2: them for long enough, that the party isn't working with her,

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Speaker 2: it's not going very well. And you know, my boss,

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Speaker 2: my editor, Michael Gove, he supports Kemmy still. He was

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Speaker 2: a politician himself as a minister and I had various

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Speaker 2: roles in the last government. And he thinks the problem

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Speaker 2: is more substantial. It's to do with the policy. The

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Speaker 2: policy itself needs to completely reform, regroup and so on.

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Speaker 1: Well, the problem not to be an American to talk

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Speaker 1: to tell you about British politics. This problem is is

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Speaker 1: there's two essential problems. Is one Bojo was Boris Johnson

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Speaker 1: was a personality without a plan, and the people who

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Speaker 1: made the plan for him fell by the wayside, especially

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Speaker 1: including his former wife. And then the second thing is

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Speaker 1: that Rishi Sunak was like the Lady macbeth of the

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Speaker 1: Conservative Party, willing to kill anybody until he assumed power.

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Speaker 1: And he's kind of like the American version of Paul Ryan.

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Speaker 1: I had to hear how much of a genius he

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Speaker 1: was and then he had to lead, and it was horrendous,

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Speaker 1: and you're like, where is this what genius are we

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Speaker 1: all supposed to be looking at right now? And that

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Speaker 1: is really the essential two problems of the last couple

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Speaker 1: of years of I mean, David Cameron comes out smelling

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Speaker 1: like roses in comparison to these two.

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Speaker 2: True, But I mean, now, kem you is so bad

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Speaker 2: that people are pining for Rishi because with Leaf he

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Speaker 2: was he was sort of hard working, you know, at

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Speaker 2: least he kind of. He wasn't very effective, he wasn't

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Speaker 2: very charismatic, he wasn't a great communicator, but he was

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Speaker 2: hardworking and he did have a he had a good

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Speaker 2: brain and he had.

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Speaker 1: Well they would sell for Teresa May May and her

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Speaker 1: dance moves at this point, okay, I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about one other thing in the in the UK right now,

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Speaker 1: which is the protest over mass immigration, because it does

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Speaker 1: feel from an outsider's perspective like it is boiling over. Now.

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Speaker 1: I know there's new laws in the UK which reduce

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Speaker 1: the amount of online content people can sit there and see,

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Speaker 1: but this feels like it's a genuine boiling point, like

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Speaker 1: it is in Ireland, where there is kind of no

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Speaker 1: going back if things aren't reformed, and things are only

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Speaker 1: going to get worse.

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Speaker 2: What is the actual mood of the country. The mood

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Speaker 2: of the country is quite feebrile. That you know that

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Speaker 2: it's outside these hotels where they put migrants up in

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Speaker 2: pretty comfortable luxury will be exaggerating but fairly luxurious by

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Speaker 2: the standards. Most people live in conditions on the taxpayer's

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Speaker 2: dime and it cost a huge amount of money. And

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Speaker 2: this is for people who've entered the country illegally, and

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Speaker 2: this drives people mad. It gets people very, very angry,

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Speaker 2: and understandably so. But I think the protest there was

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Speaker 2: these Southport murders last year where a terrible crime a

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Speaker 2: mad man who was of African origin but he was

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Speaker 2: in fact a British citizen. He murdered several girls in

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Speaker 2: a school while they were doing a dance class, and

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Speaker 2: obviously little girls being murdered is a very emotive subject.

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Speaker 2: Rightly so, and there were these protests and then the

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Speaker 2: process was sort of quickly categorized as a sort of

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Speaker 2: fun right uprising and they were anti immigrant, they were

434
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 2: explicitly anti immigrant, and unpleasant people said unpleasant things and

435
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 2: so on. But that then triggered this clampdown on speech

436
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,239
Speaker 2: ordered by Kis Darmer kiss Armer, the Prime Minister who

437
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 2: doesn't he's sort of has the power it is, but

438
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 2: he told judges to be particularly harsh in their sentencing

439
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 2: of people who got carried away in these anti immigrant protests.

440
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 2: And so you've seen what Jade Vance has raised this

441
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 2: a few times. You've seen people in jail for things

442
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: that they've tweeted, and Donald Trump was made aware of

443
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 2: it this week, and kiss Armer, sitting next to Donald

444
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: Trump this week, kind of played it down and said, no, no,

445
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 2: we're not censoring anyone. That's just not true. And then

446
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 2: to add on top of it another layer of complexity,

447
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: you have this online safety bill that came in this week,

448
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: and it's rather clever because what it's made anybody who's

449
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 2: a bit worried about the hate speech element of it,

450
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 2: who thinks maybe censorship, they've made it all about pornography

451
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 2: and children. So if you say you're worried about it,

452
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 2: people go, oh, you're in favor of pornography for children,

453
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 2: are you? And no, let's the answer. Most people are

454
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 2: not in favor of pornography for children. Some people are.

455
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 2: They shouldn't do, but but they. But the point is

456
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 2: is that that you know, rather than doing a law

457
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: about online pornography, they also made it about hate and

458
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: so you know, you cannot access hateful content unless you

459
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 2: explicitly sign up for it, which you are unlikely to do.

460
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 2: So it's a I mean, there are serious free speech concerns.

461
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 2: And kirstinand has now twice in front of Donald Trump

462
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 2: said no, no, no, we have a proud tradition of

463
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 2: free speech and our country far older than you, you know,

464
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: sort of sort of patronizing tone, and and got away

465
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: with it to a certain extent that I do get

466
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 2: the impression that we would. Jordan seems to be raising

467
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 2: the America's concerns about that law. And I think the

468
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 2: Trump led Republican Party is fully aware that Kis Starmer

469
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 2: is not being honest when he says that there's no

470
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 2: censorship in Britain.

471
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a conversation American conservas are having, and a

472
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: number of our states do have anti abortion or anti

473
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 1: pornography laws for children, and there's all age verification. It's

474
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 1: attached to age verification, so you have to put in

475
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: your driver's license to go look at pornography. So we

476
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: don't have that same and we won't have any hate

477
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 1: speech laws in this country. But this all comes with

478
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 1: the like just weeks after the conversation over grooming gangs

479
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 1: and the and kre Stormer finally kicking and dragging doing

480
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: a national investigation into grimming gangs. So it does feel

481
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 1: like it's Domino's Like it's a domino effect that is just.

482
00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: Getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and one.

483
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: Thing is leading the mind of the public into the other.

484
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: It's not like in America, where well we have a

485
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 1: much shorter attention span, I think than the British public does,

486
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: but we can get distracted with Epstein or you know,

487
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 1: something else, and no one talks to tariffs anymore. No

488
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 1: one talks about this anymore because we're in the moment,

489
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: the conversion of the moment, the conversation of the British

490
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 1: moment constantly feels like it's leading up to anything. And

491
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 1: you've heard conversation. I've heard rumors, and I don't know

492
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 1: if any of it's true. So I wanted to ask you,

493
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: are is there a possibility of leading to like a

494
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 1: real violent riot in the UK over these migrants.

495
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 2: Yes, I think it's quite possible an incident could happen.

496
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 2: There's a lot of fear at the moment over the summer,

497
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 2: with the heat and so on. A violent incident could happen,

498
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 2: and it could sort of crescendo into something truly terrible,

499
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 2: a massive riot of some sort. I tend to think probably,

500
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 2: not probably, things will just muddle on. The British not

501
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,959
Speaker 2: very revolutionary in temperament. We've never had one, and so

502
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: we tend but there is certainly a deep well of

503
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:14,479
Speaker 2: anger that we saw last year with Southport, and we

504
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 2: could see again. And people feel to use an overword,

505
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 2: overused word, we feel gas lit. We feel we're told

506
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 2: we don't have any problem with we don't have any

507
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: free speech laws. We do have laws against free speech.

508
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 2: We you know, we are told that the boat's crisis

509
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 2: is being resolved, the small boat's illegal crossings by small boat.

510
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 2: We're told that they're deporting people by thousand, but and

511
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 2: yet everybody knows numbers are going up. So we we are.

512
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 2: It's interesting you say that about Americans having a less

513
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: ault retention. Man, I think we're just slightly down upstream, downstream.

514
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: Now you're downstream from us in terms of Internet culture,

515
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 2: and we are. We are sort of at a I say,

516
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen social media phase where everybody's

517
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 2: losing their minds. We're not quite your level of you know,

518
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: cotfal Post wherever America.

519
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 1: Is a phrennier. You just have ADHD at the moment.

520
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: So I mean we're very instprumental. The story at the

521
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: Internet clauses on people we too.

522
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: Have We're just we've got we're just entering ADHD properly

523
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: a the hdl FLA we're fall on.

524
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 1: In straight jackets. Well, Freddy, where can people go to

525
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: read more about what you write about and what you

526
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: talk about?

527
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 2: Well, I've run, so I run as we have Spectator

528
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: will which is our US edition. So for if you

529
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: want my obnoxiously British takes on American politics, you can

530
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 2: read them there. And then obviously Spectator dot co dot

531
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 2: UK is our British site for analysis on British politics,

532
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 2: but you can get it at the Spectator dot com

533
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 2: or Spectator dot co dot u K.

534
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 1: Well, thank you for dealing with my obnoxious American takes

535
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: on British politics.

536
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 2: But no I am at all, and I mean you'll

537
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 2: far more on the money than ninety eight percent of

538
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: British commentation. Well, the funny the good thing.

539
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: The funny thing is is that I'm one of the

540
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: few Americans who knows any about British politics. So that's

541
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: that makes it entertaining. But thank you for coming on

542
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 1: this podcast, and I enjoyed it and I hope to

543
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: have you on again soon. You're listening to It's a

544
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: Numbers Game with Ryan Grodski.

545
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 2: We'll be right back.

546
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: And now it's time for the ask Me anythink segment

547
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: of the podcast. If you want a part of the

548
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: Ask Me Anything segment, emai me Ryan at Numbers Game

549
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: podcast dot com. That's ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com.

550
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: I love getting these questions. I look forward to them

551
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: every week. Is actually the favorite part of the show.

552
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: This one comes from Robert diaz Arista. I hope I'm

553
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 1: pronouncing your last name correctly, so thank you for listening

554
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 1: to this podcast. As I Butcher everyone's last name, and

555
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 1: he says, Hi, Ryan, I really enjoy your podcast and

556
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 1: appreciate you taking questions. It really makes the data so

557
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: much more digestible. Trump won twenty eight percent of the

558
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: LGBT vote in twenty two twenty, almost doubling his share

559
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 1: from twenty sixteen and by far the best performance of

560
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: any Republican. Gay and lesbian Republicans like myself were optimistic

561
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: about twenty twenty four, and I was at a conference

562
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: for log Cabin Republicans in June, right before Biden dropped out,

563
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,479
Speaker 1: where Rick Ranow and Charles Moran and the log Cabin

564
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 1: who was the log Cabin president. We're showing data where

565
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 1: they said that they were going to exceed that number

566
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: and suggests that forty two percent was the new benchmark.

567
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 1: This obviously proved wishful thinking, but I was expecting us

568
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: to improve from twenty twenty. Instead, the vote share collapsed

569
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: to twelve percent. A lot of my friends talked it

570
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 1: down to now having derange liberals calling themselves queer as

571
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 1: they catch all and dilute the vote of the actual

572
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 1: LGBT voters. But I believe that they are mostly trying

573
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: to cope, and I've never seen any data to back

574
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: that up. Do you have any data that might answer

575
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: what happened? Okay, Robert, great question. So I will say

576
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,959
Speaker 1: this about the LGBT vote. I I hate using that acronym,

577
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 1: but of like gay and lesbian voters primarily the biggest

578
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: thing behind that twelve percent is exit polls that were

579
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: taken immediately after the election of the major institutions catalyst

580
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: Pew Research, David Shore Data. No one else even asked

581
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: how gays and lesbians voted, so they didn't look at

582
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: voter rolls and then try to match that with voting

583
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: intention and precinct results. So I don't believe that twelve

584
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: percent number because it's exit polls. And remember it's self identifying.

585
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: So think of your average let's say, gay Trump voter. Now,

586
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: there are a lot of you know, out and proud

587
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 1: gay Trump voters. I know quite a few of them,

588
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: but there are also a lot of them who don't

589
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: care to just make their gen their sexual preference, their personality.

590
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 1: So they may not have told a pollster leaving an

591
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: at exit site that they are gay. They may have

592
00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 1: not answered at all, or they may have just said right,

593
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: or they may have, you know, just left it alone

594
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: and not answered at all and left and didn't respond,

595
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: And the exit poles and the media aftermath were very incorrect.

596
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: Remember the exit poles right after the election also so

597
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 1: that Trump didn't gain much with the Latino vote, which

598
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: was clearly not true. So I wouldn't put that much

599
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: stock in that exit pole. I don't think that it's

600
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: I don't believe the twelve percent number. I don't believe.

601
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 1: I don't believe that he did worse, considering he did

602
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: better with basically every single group, and especially young voters.

603
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: And there's more young gay people than there are older

604
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: gay people. So I would chalk it up to that

605
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: that don't believe the exit pole numbers. It's probably not correct.

606
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 1: That's my best number for you, And until a major

607
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 1: firm study is how gays and lesbian's voted, I would

608
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 1: assume that they are that they voted to the right

609
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 1: of where they did in twenty twenty. Thank you so

610
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: much for listening to this episode. Please like and subscribe

611
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast wherever you get your podcasts,

612
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 1: and I will see you guys next time