Speaker 1: Hey, it's Tiger Territory host Cody Stapenhagen joining us right
Speaker 1: now from The Athletic. But first we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about an article that hits all teams. Cody, great to
Speaker 1: have you on, and I wanted to spend some time
Speaker 1: on the homework that you did and put into a
Speaker 1: great article on what's going on with the strike zone
Speaker 1: and how the ABS system affects that. So can you
Speaker 1: lay it out and then we'll also get our guys
Speaker 1: and just turn this into more of a discussion like
Speaker 1: KP and crats to reply.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 3: I mean everyone in baseball is obviously talking about the
Speaker 3: ABS right now, and I feel like a lot of
Speaker 3: the discussion has just gone to is this good?
Speaker 2: Is this bad?
Speaker 3: How do we feel about the challenges? How are we
Speaker 3: using the challenges? And almost overlooked is something that was
Speaker 3: kind of laid out in the impetus of MLB going
Speaker 3: to the ABS, which is that the strike zone has changed.
Speaker 3: The rule book strike zone and the ABS strike zone
Speaker 3: are two different things. Most notably, we now base the
Speaker 3: strike zone on a percentage of player's height, which has
Speaker 3: several interesting ripple effects. Number one, how our umpire's supposed
Speaker 3: to know what the bottom or top of the zone is.
Speaker 3: How do you look at someone and know what twenty
Speaker 3: seven percent of their height looks like? And to some degree,
Speaker 3: pictures are dealing with the exact same thing. They no
Speaker 3: longer have those set easy visual cues just below the
Speaker 3: shoulders or the hollow of the kneecap to know the
Speaker 3: top and bottom of the zone. Now a lot of
Speaker 3: pitchers are basing their cues more off the catcher anyway,
Speaker 3: but some are doing some homework to know in advance
Speaker 3: what zones look like on certain guys. Now with this,
Speaker 3: the top of the zone is smaller, and the walk
Speaker 3: rate has risen quite significantly. It's nine point nine percent.
Speaker 3: To some degree, MLB expected that they saw a very
Speaker 3: similar trend in triple A. But nine point nine percent now,
Speaker 3: I know it's early, I know it's April. That'd be
Speaker 3: the highest walk rate in more than seventy years, guys,
Speaker 3: And if you exclude the short and twenty twenty season,
Speaker 3: the walk rate hasn't been nine since the year two thousand,
Speaker 3: So let's say pretty shit rise and walks. There may
Speaker 3: be some more ripple effects to come as everyone continues
Speaker 3: adjusting to the abs and basically, what's a new strike
Speaker 3: zone In.
Speaker 4: The research, have you seen any numbers that would indicate, well,
Speaker 4: this is going to be the norm or will there
Speaker 4: be a regression back to the mean of the amount
Speaker 4: of walks with that walk rate spiking? Obviously we don't know.
Speaker 4: You're not not a fortune teller, but is there something
Speaker 4: that would indicate, Okay, well, everyone will figure it out,
Speaker 4: including the pictures, including the umpires, and we'll get back
Speaker 4: to it. Or is this the new norm?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I think to some degree it's the new normal. Will
Speaker 3: it be this extreme? Who knows. But right now, the
Speaker 3: best evidence we have is what happened in Triple A
Speaker 3: last year, a full ABS challenge system from start to finish,
Speaker 3: and the walk rate jumped, you know, more than a
Speaker 3: percentage point. So there's reason to suggest this is what happens.
Speaker 3: Triple A has experimented with different iterations of the ABS
Speaker 3: over the past few years. Walker right is stabilized a
Speaker 3: little bit as this has gone on, but it's still
Speaker 3: much higher than it was pre ABS. Some of the
Speaker 3: trends we're seeing at the MLB level right now kind
Speaker 3: of reflect what's happened in Triple A, where the overall
Speaker 3: percentage of pitches in the zone is lower. As a
Speaker 3: result of that, the swing rate from hitters is lower.
Speaker 3: I think as everyone comes to know the zone, whether
Speaker 3: that's catchers, batters, pitchers, umpires, they might there may be
Speaker 3: some adjustment, but in at least the short term, it
Speaker 3: could mean even more walks as hitters increasingly learn to
Speaker 3: lay off the high pitch, that high fastball that can
Speaker 3: be unhittable from certain pitchers. And so maybe the question
Speaker 3: that's still unanswerable is if hitters really learned to lay
Speaker 3: off that pitch, what does that mean for the art
Speaker 3: of pitching. Or I think we're already seeing slide up
Speaker 3: tick and sinkers and change ups, pitchers going a little
Speaker 3: more east west, and what will that look like for
Speaker 3: the game. I think these are some of the many
Speaker 3: questions that kind of come up and that it's going
Speaker 3: to take some time, probably multiple seasons to fully answer.
Speaker 5: Yeah, these are more comments than I'll ask Kratzy a question.
Speaker 5: But I feel like the strike zone was always defined
Speaker 5: in the rule book, right, but it was very arbitrary
Speaker 5: to what the umpire decided to call. So I'm a
Speaker 5: huge fan, I'm also pro hitter that there is a
Speaker 5: defined strike zone. Now, even though you know, when you're
Speaker 5: sitting back there catching crats, you can't really, you know,
Speaker 5: estimate what's you know, twenty six point seven percent of
Speaker 5: their body height. But I could also imagine you're probably
Speaker 5: not back there Kratzy setting up a target right at
Speaker 5: the hall of the knees. It becomes more of a
Speaker 5: feeling when you're back there. But I also think this
Speaker 5: just kind of highlights how good umpires are, you know,
Speaker 5: and I think for a long time, when we talked
Speaker 5: about this in our production meeting, I think they're just
Speaker 5: finally being held accountable. There's a repercussion for them to
Speaker 5: kind of just call whatever they feel like to strike,
Speaker 5: but when they have a defined strike zone that they
Speaker 5: can actually lock into, these guys are pretty good. And
Speaker 5: I think it's been great for the game. I know
Speaker 5: it's a little bit more challeng for pitchers and maybe
Speaker 5: there's an adjustment for pictures, but I love the fact
Speaker 5: that it's implementing the game. I think it's added a
Speaker 5: layer of entertainment. I've been at a couple of games
Speaker 5: covering the Blue Jays, and when that happens instantaneously, you
Speaker 5: can kind of feel this people holding their breadth in
Speaker 5: the stadium and anticipation of what the call is going
Speaker 5: to be, whether it's for the team or against the team.
Speaker 5: But it's just added this extra layer of entertainment. But Gratzy,
Speaker 5: maybe you could speak on it when you're back there
Speaker 5: as a catcher. It's it's more of a feeling you
Speaker 5: have catching than actually setting your glove at you know,
Speaker 5: like measuring the top of the zone or the bottom
Speaker 5: of the zone. You're kind of just setting up a target.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're setting up a target. But I also want
Speaker 4: to know, like are some catchers like setting the hitter
Speaker 4: up like given like a I know that was I
Speaker 4: know that was in the zone, but I kind of
Speaker 4: caught it bad to set the hitters up. There's there's
Speaker 4: a lot of gamesmanship. And I love how Cody you
Speaker 4: you highlighted the fact that the walk rate is up,
Speaker 4: but the fact that how are you so supposed to know?
Speaker 4: How are you supposed to know what that percentage is?
Speaker 4: And through the different stuff that you looked at, is
Speaker 4: it still the top of the zone? You talked about
Speaker 4: the top of the zone. But we've had three or
Speaker 4: four catchers on the show and they've all said the
Speaker 4: same thing. I just don't know where the top of
Speaker 4: the zone is. And did you hear that or have
Speaker 4: you heard that from umpires too?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I personally haven't spoken to any umpires based on
Speaker 3: the sense that's out there Ken Rosenthal what some others
Speaker 3: have reported, I think umpires certainly share the similar feeling.
Speaker 3: The top of the zone was seemingly altered a little
Speaker 3: bit more than the bottom of the zone. There have
Speaker 3: been some mysteries at the bottom of the zone two.
Speaker 3: But if you look at the data of just what
Speaker 3: pitches are getting challenged the most, it's pretty interesting. The
Speaker 3: bottom of the zone is where the most challenges are.
Speaker 3: So does that tell you no one knows the bottom
Speaker 3: of the zone, or does that tell you everyone's pretty
Speaker 3: confident in the bottom of the zone, so they're going
Speaker 3: to challenge Where the least challenges have occurred is up top,
Speaker 3: which actually I personally tend to think means batters aren't
Speaker 3: quite sure what the top is. Catchers aren't quite sure
Speaker 3: where the top is. There's still a degree of mystery
Speaker 3: up top. I think talking to pitchers for sure, that's
Speaker 3: what got mentioned the most, just the uncertainty of that
Speaker 3: how batters are reacting the pitches up top. I think
Speaker 3: I think that's what everyone is kind of talking about
Speaker 3: the most. And to be clear, these things weren't necessarily complaints.
Speaker 3: I think the large consensus in the game, as you
Speaker 3: point out, Kevin, like, people tend to like the ABS.
Speaker 3: But I do think it's important to note it's not
Speaker 3: just like, all right, the ABS is here, people tend
Speaker 3: to like it. It's good like there are small little
Speaker 3: ripple effects that are that are coming out. When you
Speaker 3: fundamentally change the strike zone, you fundamentally changed the game.
Speaker 4: You talked about the areas. Is there a pitch that
Speaker 4: has been challenged more often?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 4: Is there are more sliders challenged or more fastballs challenged splitters?
Speaker 4: Is there one pitch that sticks out as an outlier
Speaker 4: that's challenged more ya right.
Speaker 3: Now in terms of just the sheer volume, it's forcing fastballs,
Speaker 3: But that makes sense. Forcing fastball are still the most
Speaker 3: commonly thrown pitch. So I'm not a good enough mathematician
Speaker 3: to break down each percentage of pitches they're game challenge,
Speaker 3: but I think it's probably telling. The second and third
Speaker 3: most commonly challenged pitch are the sinker and the slider
Speaker 3: pitches kind of with later horizontal movement that maybe that
Speaker 3: are going, you know.
Speaker 2: Out of the zone.
Speaker 3: I think that's selling sinkers for sure. I mean, again,
Speaker 3: a commonly thrown pitch, but some of these sinkers these
Speaker 3: days that are moving the width of the plate and
Speaker 3: have hard late movement. Combine that with pitchers, they're using
Speaker 3: sinkers a little bit more often. I think maybe that's
Speaker 3: been kind of the toughest pitch to pick up for batters, umpires, pitchers,
Speaker 3: catchers alike.
Speaker 5: What have you seen with the Tigers in terms of
Speaker 5: how successful they have been. Are they using it more
Speaker 5: offensively defensively? And have you had conversations with players or
Speaker 5: even aj about kind of the strategy that they've actively
Speaker 5: come up with how to use their challenges.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. I mean the Tigers, I think, like
Speaker 3: most teams but maybe not quite every team, are pretty
Speaker 3: focused on using it in leverage situations. Right if there's
Speaker 3: a chance to flip account big time, to go from
Speaker 3: a strikeout to a walk, or if they're runners on base,
Speaker 3: that's a good time to use it. Is an oo
Speaker 3: pitch in the first inning with no one on base
Speaker 3: really the best time to deploy your challenge. Look, you
Speaker 3: better be sure, and that's probably the overwhelming point, like
Speaker 3: you better be sure or if you're not quite sure,
Speaker 3: you better be using it in a situation where there
Speaker 3: is something at stake. The Tigers have been pretty good
Speaker 3: at challenges, I think most notably Dylan Dingler has been phenomenal.
Speaker 3: He was entering yesterday I think nine for eleven, so
Speaker 3: he's been really accurate behind the plate. He's flipped a
Speaker 3: big count this past week at the plate, going from
Speaker 3: a walk to extend an inning. So Dylan Dingler has
Speaker 3: actually been one of the stars of the challenge system
Speaker 3: so far.
Speaker 4: Must be the American League Central because I think Ryan
Speaker 4: Jeffers at one point had ten successful I think out
Speaker 4: of twelve or something like that, but eight of them
Speaker 4: were for strikeouts. So just to your point, they want
Speaker 4: to do it in leverage counts. Do you see obviously,
Speaker 4: April seventeenth, we are very new into ABS, but based
Speaker 4: on the success of it, or based on the how
Speaker 4: it's been taking, do you see a tweak that or
Speaker 4: what your what's your nostradamus tweak that you think might
Speaker 4: happen with ABS. We had a guest on the other
Speaker 4: day that was like, they're going to go to full
Speaker 4: robo umpires at one point, and I'm forgetting who it was,
Speaker 4: and I was like, what, No, I don't want that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is interesting that, given there's been a positive
Speaker 3: response so far, does that make like full robo bumps
Speaker 3: more likely.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think maybe, But I also think it's
Speaker 3: worth noting that right now, fans seem to like the
Speaker 3: Challenge system. Players seem to like the Challenge system. Even
Speaker 3: umpires don't totally hate the Challenge system. So if you
Speaker 3: have something that's working pretty well and adds that little
Speaker 3: extra element of strategy and suspense even to the game,
Speaker 3: I'm not sure they should touch it. And I say
Speaker 3: that as someone who's kind of been like, well, if
Speaker 3: you have the technology to get calls right, why wouldn't
Speaker 3: you use it all the time. But right now, the
Speaker 3: Challenge system has been kind of fun, kind of interesting,
Speaker 3: Like the strategy behind it that we were just talking about.
Speaker 3: I almost wonder if they should leave it there now.
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to change anything mid season,
Speaker 3: but some of the strike zone stuff we were talking about,
Speaker 3: I wonder if that will eventually change previously or in
Speaker 3: the rule book, the strike zone is still defined as
Speaker 3: a three dimensional object and the ABS zone is like
Speaker 3: a pane of glass, two dimensional, hung in the middle
Speaker 3: of the plate. So can they perfect this technology where
Speaker 3: they can implement the three D strike zone and it's
Speaker 3: a little different, Or if the walk rate really becomes
Speaker 3: a problem, is it as simple as to say, all right,
Speaker 3: let's raise the top of the zone a little bit,
Speaker 3: get it back a little bit more like it used
Speaker 3: to be. That might be the most obvious solution if
Speaker 3: they were to tweak things down the line.
Speaker 5: You laid out your research and you you talked about
Speaker 5: the top of the zone, and obviously the research shows that.
Speaker 5: But have you had conversations with pictures within the organization
Speaker 5: kind of expressing their frustration with not really knowing where
Speaker 5: the top of the strike zone is? Or is this
Speaker 5: all based off.
Speaker 3: Of research, Yeah, based on conversations with Tiger's pictures, some
Speaker 3: other pictures around the league. My colleague Zach Miselle spoke
Speaker 3: to a a couple of pictures with the Guardians, with
Speaker 3: the Royals, and I wouldn't frame it so much as frustration,
Speaker 3: but it's more just like kind of talking out the uncertainty. Yeah,
Speaker 3: players definitely said like the top of the zone is
Speaker 3: the one that everyone is still figuring out.
Speaker 4: What about the fear of time of game pace of games?
Speaker 4: Have you heard that? Because I think we had the
Speaker 4: number from the minor leagues and I think it's still
Speaker 4: on par with that. But is their fear of pace
Speaker 4: of game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, no one told me that on the record, but
Speaker 3: just conversation ends I've had since the start of spring training,
Speaker 3: that thought has definitely come up. Walks are up, which
Speaker 3: again MLB kind of new walks we're going to raise
Speaker 3: a little bit. Is that going to impact the pace
Speaker 3: of play? Which improving the pace of play has been
Speaker 3: such a good thing for the game over the past
Speaker 3: few seasons. I do think that's a real question. If
Speaker 3: the pace of play right now is pretty stable, or
Speaker 3: at least close to where it was before, then maybe
Speaker 3: it's not an issue. But if the walker rate continues
Speaker 3: to be a concern, if hitters start laying off more
Speaker 3: pitches and the walker rate keeps going up, at what
Speaker 3: point does that become an issue. I certainly think that's
Speaker 3: a really important thing to keep an eye on.
Speaker 5: So over the last couple of years, the Tigers have
Speaker 5: kind of been the alpha of that division, and we've
Speaker 5: come to expect a certain thing from the Detroit Tigers.
Speaker 5: Is there a reason to panic or is this just
Speaker 5: kind of some early season not playing their best baseball
Speaker 5: right now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fine to say alpha of the division. They
Speaker 3: haven't won the divisions in ten years. They've been a
Speaker 3: playoff team in the past two years. But you know,
Speaker 3: fumbled away of the division lead last year, and then
Speaker 3: in terms of their start to the season, it's kind
Speaker 3: of have been all over the place. They had a
Speaker 3: really rough road trip in Minnesota. They lost four in
Speaker 3: a row. They started four and nine. They weren't really
Speaker 3: playing a clean or good brand of baseball. They weren't
Speaker 3: pitching that well. And then they got back home and
Speaker 3: they won six in a row. They beat the Royals
Speaker 3: in three consecutive one run games, terrific comeback. A long
Speaker 3: day at the park yesterday that had multiple delays. They
Speaker 3: won that on a col Keith walkoff single. So a
Speaker 3: really good home stand. Now they're ten to nine. Now
Speaker 3: everyone is feeling a little bit better, I think most
Speaker 3: notably to pitching. The starting pitching in particular starting to
Speaker 3: come along strung together really six consecutive really strong starts.
Speaker 3: I think pitching and a clean brand to play is
Speaker 3: huge for the Tigers. They have enough offense, but it's
Speaker 3: gonna take elite pitching, I think for them to win
Speaker 3: this division, And at least over the past week we
Speaker 3: started to see more signs of that.
Speaker 4: Who do you think makes the next step for the
Speaker 4: rest of the season. Do you think it's Flairty or
Speaker 4: do you think it's Kaider Mantaro who I thought was
Speaker 4: going to take the next step and then he kind
Speaker 4: of you know, they got Framburgh, so it kind of
Speaker 4: not that he took a back seat. He's still in
Speaker 4: the rotation, but you saw what he did in the WBC,
Speaker 4: you know, and then you're like, oh no, Like obviously
Speaker 4: it's all small sample size, but one of those two
Speaker 4: guys really needs to step up for this team if
Speaker 4: they want to make the run that they're planning on making,
Speaker 4: and that's why they're keeping Trek Scrugle to win the
Speaker 4: World Series. They need a third guy to step up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. You know this in spring when people
Speaker 3: are saying, well that the Tigers have the best rotation
Speaker 3: in the American League, that conversation was less dependent on
Speaker 3: Trek Scougle and from Rivaldez, who are really good, you
Speaker 3: have a pretty good idea what you're gonna get, and
Speaker 3: more dependent on Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, even justin Verlander.
Speaker 3: Verlander's on the il right now. Montero's been really impressive
Speaker 3: in his place. If and when Verlander gets back healthy,
Speaker 3: what does that even mean for Montero? Like, I don't
Speaker 3: know if these things tend to figure themselves out. All
Speaker 3: it takes is someone else tweaking a muscle and maybe
Speaker 3: Montero's in the rotation for another month. He's been really good.
Speaker 3: He's been really impressive. He's commanding his stuff better than ever.
Speaker 3: Flaherty's coming off a really good start after a couple
Speaker 3: of rough ones. But I would throw Casey Myes in
Speaker 3: that conversation too. Myes has looked pretty good so far
Speaker 3: at this season. He's had one start where his splitter
Speaker 3: was terrific and good as ever. He had a little
Speaker 3: bit of a rough start in Minnesota, and then this
Speaker 3: past homestand had had one where he was pretty good.
Speaker 3: His fastball command was good, he made some big pitches
Speaker 3: and big spots even with runners on base. He pitches
Speaker 3: tonight against the Red Sox. I actually like what I'm
Speaker 3: seeing from Casey Mice and I would throw him at
Speaker 3: the top of that list.
Speaker 2: Hey, quick question, Cole Keith.
Speaker 1: So I saw the tweet about you know, sitting in
Speaker 1: front of his locker, talked about breathing.
Speaker 2: Can you elaborate on that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Cole Keith's soft to be a really good starts
Speaker 3: the year his third MLB season. We've seen flashes of
Speaker 3: good play from Cole in his first couple of years,
Speaker 3: but also some pretty long, prolonged droughts, most notably really
Speaker 3: bad starts to the season in both twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty five, he's hat a goal to correct that,
Speaker 3: to come out the gate hot, and he's done that.
Speaker 3: He's hitting above three hundred, had the walk off single yesterday.
Speaker 3: Talking to Colt about it, he kind of attributes the
Speaker 3: mental work more than the physical. He got big into
Speaker 3: breathing exercises, kind of inhaling through the nose, doing some
Speaker 3: things that you think can send more oxygen to his tissues.
Speaker 3: And so he's actually crediting that breathing exercises for why
Speaker 3: his swing speed is up and his average exit velocity
Speaker 3: is up. You guys can read a little bit more
Speaker 3: about that on the athletic But it's been kind of interesting.
Speaker 3: You see these guys, you know, their physical profile starts
Speaker 3: to change or their stat cast page starts to change,
Speaker 3: and sometimes you go talk to him and it's as
Speaker 3: simple as oh, yeah, like I started doing breathing exercises.
Speaker 2: Quick reply before we drop KP or kay. Any thoughts
Speaker 2: on that.
Speaker 5: Well, I mean it just reminds me of Loriano. Just
Speaker 5: loosen the grip in his fingers a little bit and
Speaker 5: he starts hitting the ball harder. So yeah, I mean
Speaker 5: from an educational standpoint, like grats he touched on, sometimes
Speaker 5: less is more and it sounds exactly what he's trying
Speaker 5: to do. When you breathe, you're a little bit more relaxed,
Speaker 5: the tensions off the bat starts to go through the
Speaker 5: zone a little bit more. So Yeah, I love when
Speaker 5: guys are open and honest about talking about that, because
Speaker 5: we spent a lot of time talking about these physical
Speaker 5: changes that need to be done in the cage and
Speaker 5: hitting your way out of it. Sometimes you need to
Speaker 5: step away from the physical aspect take some time mentally
Speaker 5: to work on things like that and you're seeing, you know,
Speaker 5: him reaping the benefits of it.
Speaker 4: I was definite I was breathing when I played, but
Speaker 4: it sounded more like this, Oh man, they're gonna send
Speaker 4: me down. Cole Keith doesn't have to worry about that,
Speaker 4: so good for him. He's he's he's locked up now.
Speaker 4: He possibly could have been going if they had changed
Speaker 4: in positions again, but fortunately they have. They haven't done that,
Speaker 4: so maybe those breathing actually sizes will continue to help him.
Speaker 1: Look for more on Cody's Twitter and and I think
Speaker 1: it would be a cool topic to bring up on
Speaker 1: Tiger Territory coming up on the next one too, So Cody,
Speaker 1: appreciate the time and great article and the athletic on
Speaker 1: the the abs.
Speaker 2: I love the combo. Just now and we'll catch you soon,
Speaker 2: Bud sounds good.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me, Gus.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Cody s David Hagen, and Kieren Stackley part
Speaker 1: of Tiger Territory, part of the FT Network all over
Speaker 1: Tiger's coverage all year long.
Speaker 2: Go check it out.