Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros
Speaker 1: NFL Podcast, brought to you by Bet MGM. I'm your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris and you can find me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris Adi. It is time for our early look
Speaker 1: at next week's lines, and with me to break it
Speaker 1: all down is Chris Jamino, director of Premium content over
Speaker 1: at Roto Grinders. You can find him on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Chris Jamino. That's g I M I n OL. Chris.
Speaker 1: Thanks a lot for coming on the show today. How's
Speaker 1: it going, Oh, it's going great.
Speaker 2: I've got minshew Mania and Live bet the Jaguars right
Speaker 2: at the end of that Denver game last week, so
Speaker 2: I ended up making a little bit of a what
Speaker 2: was a pretty bad week otherwise, So I'm ready to
Speaker 2: talk football.
Speaker 1: I'm a little encouraged to hear that you had a
Speaker 1: bad week because I had a terrible week and I
Speaker 1: had been going on a really good run and I'm
Speaker 1: hearing this, frankly from a lot of people. This week
Speaker 1: was just brutal, man. I mean, you know, I didn't
Speaker 1: I tried to stay away from the public whenever I could,
Speaker 1: but I found myself going with you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of the favorites that we're getting a lot of the
Speaker 1: numbers of bets backing, and it was just a brutal
Speaker 1: week for me. So I'm glad other than you managed
Speaker 1: to stalvage a little bit with the Jaguars Broncos game.
Speaker 1: I'm glad to hear that it was also a tough
Speaker 1: week for you, because it really I got my butt kicked.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie about it, but hopefully we can
Speaker 1: turn around here now. I want to say off the bat,
Speaker 1: how excited I am not to have to deal with
Speaker 1: the line on whatever game the Dolphins usually play because
Speaker 1: they're on a bye, because I think we're basically in
Speaker 1: historic territory here with the Finns and I never know
Speaker 1: how to properly analyze align with them. Are you with
Speaker 1: me there by the way that they've basically broken the
Speaker 1: NFL sports betting framework or what?
Speaker 3: No, I'm not.
Speaker 2: I think that their draw of opponents has just been
Speaker 2: brutal to start this season. I think that we're talking
Speaker 2: about some really good teams that they've seen so far. Now,
Speaker 2: I do think they're bad. I don't think they're historically bad,
Speaker 2: but they're definitely near the bottom. I mean, I look
Speaker 2: at this team over and I don't see a lot
Speaker 2: of redeeming qualities. But I don't know if I'm necessarily
Speaker 2: in agreement that this is some sort of historically bad team,
Speaker 2: at least not the very worst team you've seen. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, back in the day, there were some pretty
Speaker 2: bad Saints teams and stuff. So I don't know if
Speaker 2: this is the worst one ever.
Speaker 1: I think that's fair to me. I don't know, man,
Speaker 1: when I'm looking at them, I'm wondering where they're going
Speaker 1: to rank historically in terrible teams. And regardless, the bottom
Speaker 1: line is that every single week I see value in
Speaker 1: the line and I can't bring myself to pull the
Speaker 1: trigger on it. Which has been good, but I don't
Speaker 1: know how high the lines need to get for me
Speaker 1: to feel comfortable with them. But regardless, today you and
Speaker 1: I are going to go through each game. Now, we're
Speaker 1: going to be using the consensus odds over at bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com. That's an aggregation of the odds that are
Speaker 1: available on the market. As always, there are going to
Speaker 1: be differences at the various sports books, so shop around
Speaker 1: for the best odds. Also, if you want to see
Speaker 1: how some of the top sports betting experts are leaning
Speaker 1: on any given bet at any given time. Bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: Com is going to show you that too. All right, Chris,
Speaker 1: let's slide right in here with the Rams at the
Speaker 1: Seahawks on Thursday night. Now, this line, as far as
Speaker 1: I can tell, it has bounced around a ton. I
Speaker 1: think the early look at the Rams favored by at
Speaker 1: least a couple of points. I checked last night and
Speaker 1: the Rams were favored by one. But now these Seahawks
Speaker 1: are favored by one and the over under is forty nine.
Speaker 1: You have any major reaction to that line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this might be one of my favorite spots that
Speaker 2: I've looked at so far earlier in the week. I
Speaker 2: just think that the Rams are going to be undervalued
Speaker 2: at this point after the performance they had last week
Speaker 2: against Jameis Winston. You know, the defense definitely let them down.
Speaker 2: Marcus Peters got shredded for a long touchdown by Mike Evans.
Speaker 2: You know, there was just a lot of breakdowns and
Speaker 2: some turnovers that really made this team look pretty bad.
Speaker 2: I think that's probably what we're seeing here as the
Speaker 2: line fluctuates back and forth. But at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, if we're going to give the Seahawks favorite
Speaker 2: status here, then I'm definitely going to take the Rams
Speaker 2: on the money line straight up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I mean, look, when you're moving from
Speaker 1: minus one from the Rams to minus one from the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: it doesn't really do anything, you know, it's kind of
Speaker 1: a meaningless move when you're looking at the spread. But
Speaker 1: I do think that this is an overreaction to yesterday's game.
Speaker 1: I don't know what that was. I mean, it was
Speaker 1: shocking basically how bad the Rams defense was ripped apart
Speaker 1: by Jameis Winston. But really in the other end, I mean,
Speaker 1: maybe people are reading a bit too much into it.
Speaker 1: From the Seahawks side of it as well. They have
Speaker 1: a pretty convincing win over and admittedly bad Arizona team.
Speaker 1: I think the difference is that realistically, the Seahawks have
Speaker 1: not looked very good, and they didn't even look great
Speaker 1: yesterday against Arizona. They did get the defensive touchdown where
Speaker 1: Clowning made the great play on the screen, but you know,
Speaker 1: other than that, you know, I think they put up
Speaker 1: twenty seven points, So I think they put up twenty overall,
Speaker 1: not an overly impressive showing, so I'm inclined to agree
Speaker 1: with you. The total doesn't jump out at me, But
Speaker 1: for me, I'm definitely seeing value on the Rams here
Speaker 1: at the early number, and I don't know which way
Speaker 1: it's going to go because it really has bounced back
Speaker 1: and forth pretty quickly. Of course that there's in that game,
Speaker 1: there's not much more time for it to go. But
Speaker 1: either way, I agree with you. I certainly see value
Speaker 1: on the Rams. Let's move on to the Bills at
Speaker 1: the Titans. The Titans here are laying two and a
Speaker 1: half and the over unders at a pretty low thirty
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Obviously, there's a question mark right
Speaker 1: now around Josh Allen, who remains in the concussion protocol.
Speaker 1: You've got two strong defenses, and to be fair, I
Speaker 1: undersold the Bills defense completely. I thought the Pats were
Speaker 1: going to go up there and be able to cover
Speaker 1: that spread of seven. They really could have lost that
Speaker 1: game pretty easily. But what's the reaction here, Titans laying
Speaker 1: two and a half over under at thirty eight and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I like the Titans last week because I didn't think
Speaker 2: the type of offense that Atlanta I was bringing to
Speaker 2: the table you know, if you know, presuming that they
Speaker 2: could find a way to take the deep ball away
Speaker 2: from Julio and Ridley, then I thought that the Titans
Speaker 2: defense was going to be a good matchup for the Falcons,
Speaker 2: and I like the Titans last week. I don't think
Speaker 2: the same is true at all for Buffalo. If Josh
Speaker 2: Allen's back, right, I do think that you know, John
Speaker 2: Brown basically is a specialist in the deep ball, and
Speaker 2: you know, Malcolm Butler is just completely capable of being
Speaker 2: torched in any spot. I don't want to get to,
Speaker 2: you know, bogged down on rating a team based on
Speaker 2: one offensive matchup. I do really think that the biggest
Speaker 2: advantage for this game, of any side is going to
Speaker 2: be the Bills defense against this Titans offense. You know,
Speaker 2: the Falcons defense was missing a ton of characters last week.
Speaker 2: They were able to get shredded and give up, you know,
Speaker 2: get some big plays against that Atlanta defense. I do
Speaker 2: not think that will be the case against Buffalo. Buffalo
Speaker 2: specializes in preventing such big plays. So at the end
Speaker 2: of the day, I do you think Buffalo is at
Speaker 2: the advantage here? And I like them in the.
Speaker 1: Spot out of curiosity does the fact that Allen is
Speaker 1: in the concussion protocol, what do you do with that
Speaker 1: as a better Do you just wait and hold on,
Speaker 1: do you try to get in on it now and
Speaker 1: hope for the best, or how do you approach that well?
Speaker 2: I think I want to watch that game one more
Speaker 2: time because Matt Barkley to me looked way more competent
Speaker 2: than I ever saw him or thought of him before.
Speaker 2: And I think the same was true in the preseason
Speaker 2: when I saw Barkley operate this offense. So I really
Speaker 2: want to get a good look at how that offense
Speaker 2: looks with him. There could be some value. Here's what
Speaker 2: I'm saying is if the public doesn't think he's, you know,
Speaker 2: ready for prime time, ready to step in there and
Speaker 2: do the job, I really think the Bills would win
Speaker 2: this game on defense anyway, So as long as he's
Speaker 2: able to manage the game, I would still not be
Speaker 2: shying away from Buffalo, just purely on the presence of
Speaker 2: Matt Barkley. I don't think Josh Allen's that great of
Speaker 2: a quarterback either, so I don't know if the jump
Speaker 2: is as big as people would expect from Barkley to Allen.
Speaker 3: Maybe that's a hot take, but that's just how.
Speaker 1: I feel now. I mean, look from a fantasy perspective.
Speaker 1: You and I both do fantasy work. Of course, Allan
Speaker 1: is great because he provides you know, value with his
Speaker 1: rushing ability. But he is one of the least accurate
Speaker 1: passers in the NFL. There's no doubt about that. And
Speaker 1: when Barkley stepped in, yeah, he looked better overall than
Speaker 1: Alan did. Really in that game, he moved the ball
Speaker 1: relatively well considering he was thrown into the Lions then
Speaker 1: there against the Pats, But I agree, I don't expect
Speaker 1: it to have too much of an impact on the
Speaker 1: spread here, even though quarterbacks can Barkley again, with how
Speaker 1: he looked. You mentioned the preseason as well, and he
Speaker 1: looked fine against New England, I'm not sure it would
Speaker 1: have that big of an impact. Let's move on here
Speaker 1: to the Falcons at the Texans. The Texans here are
Speaker 1: laying four and a half and the over under his
Speaker 1: forty nine, two teams coming off really bad losses. The
Speaker 1: Falcons look kind of in disarray. The defense is really
Speaker 1: compromised without Ken O'Neil in there. How are you feeling
Speaker 1: about this when Texans laying four and a half at
Speaker 1: home over under forty nine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the total is definitely the thing I'd
Speaker 2: be looking at first here. I mean, I'm not so
Speaker 2: sure that I think the Falcons are that good of
Speaker 2: a team. They're one in three and they're just really
Speaker 2: really brutal on defense, and the Texans offense is probably
Speaker 2: capable of getting their share of the points in this game.
Speaker 2: The question is whether the Falcons can put up the
Speaker 2: points on the Texans, and that's why be looking at
Speaker 2: the It's a pretty good line at forty nine. I'm
Speaker 2: not excited to get the over on this, but I
Speaker 2: think if I was leading in anything right now, would
Speaker 2: be you know, can the Falcons get the job done
Speaker 2: against his Texans defense? And then then I would be interested,
Speaker 2: of course in the over.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean the Texans have been a little disappointing
Speaker 1: on offense, at least to me. I mean, I know,
Speaker 1: you know, the problems with the offensive line. Watson's holding
Speaker 1: the ball for way too long, so they aren't putting
Speaker 1: up the points. And you know, they've played some tough
Speaker 1: defenses here. They played the Jaguars, of course, where they
Speaker 1: weren't able to do much they played the Panthers, and
Speaker 1: the Panthers have a solid defense mostly against the pass,
Speaker 1: less against the run, which is sort of, you know,
Speaker 1: really goes against what the Texans can do. They don't
Speaker 1: run the ball that well with Hide and Duke Johnson.
Speaker 1: It's fine, but it's not their strength over here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I didn't have a strong lean when I first looked
Speaker 1: at this game. I mean, forty nine, it's around kind
Speaker 1: of where I expected to be in the four and
Speaker 1: a half is fine, but really I'm wondering whether the
Speaker 1: Falcons here are gonna kind of start really really tailing off,
Speaker 1: because I think they just cannot get it going. Yesterday,
Speaker 1: they you know, barely anything to Julio Jones. Ridley has
Speaker 1: basically been phased out at this point. Austin Hooper is
Speaker 1: having a great year, but they're really not going to
Speaker 1: be able to sustain an offensive philosophy dumping the ball
Speaker 1: off to Demonta Freeman constantly and going through Austin Hooper.
Speaker 1: So for me, I'm not quite as confident this. I
Speaker 1: really want to go back and watch yesterday's game, but
Speaker 1: it's something where I don't have a strong lean on
Speaker 1: it as of yet. But it has not moved as
Speaker 1: far as I can tell from the look aheadline, so
Speaker 1: I think this is probably in the end four and
Speaker 1: a half and over under forty nine is basically around
Speaker 1: where it's going to get up, give or take half
Speaker 1: a point. Let's move on here to a divisional matchup
Speaker 1: Ravens at the Steelers. The Ravens are currently minus four
Speaker 1: and the over under is at forty two and a half.
Speaker 1: Now we're recording this before the Monday night game, so obviously,
Speaker 1: if there are any significant developments on the Steelers side
Speaker 1: of the ball, the line could move. Two teams who
Speaker 1: know each other really well. They always battle out close.
Speaker 1: How are you feeling about this one? Ravens minus four
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Pittsburgh defense is a pretty good unit. But
Speaker 2: I still think that if we're talking about, you know,
Speaker 2: just a four point favorite for the Ravens, I think
Speaker 2: that overall there's still a much better team. If their
Speaker 2: defensive health improves at all, I would really like them
Speaker 2: in the spot at minus four. I certainly don't think
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh under Mason Rudolph's command is necessarily a strong
Speaker 2: team to.
Speaker 3: Be betting right now.
Speaker 2: I don't know what they are, yet I don't really
Speaker 2: have a strong take on whether or not they can
Speaker 2: cover a spread versus a team like the Ravens. But
Speaker 2: I think the Ravens underperformed this week, and I think
Speaker 2: that they might have otherwise been bigger favorites here. So
Speaker 2: minus four is something I would possibly be looking at here.
Speaker 1: I'm really surprised that the spread isn't higher. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, because it's not as if it came down
Speaker 1: when the Ravens just got their butts kicked by the Browns.
Speaker 1: I mean, it was kind of I think the look
Speaker 1: headline was relatively where it was. I think, if anything,
Speaker 1: it leaned a little bit closer towards the Ravens here.
Speaker 1: For me, I don't know. My initial gut on this
Speaker 1: is that there's going to be money that comes in
Speaker 1: on the Ravens that's going to push it a little
Speaker 1: bit higher and the over under. Neither one of these
Speaker 1: teams has a defense that is particularly good at this point.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Ravens, as you mentioned, are banged up,
Speaker 1: but you knew coming in that their defense was not
Speaker 1: going to be as strong as it has been in
Speaker 1: previous years, and I think that's showing itself to be
Speaker 1: true right now. Now. Whether or not the Steelers are
Speaker 1: able to move the ball against them, there's a whole
Speaker 1: nother question, but that's more about the Steelers offense. I
Speaker 1: think Mason Rudolph, who has not looked good, will get
Speaker 1: better as he gets more comfortable playing in the NFL.
Speaker 1: But for me, both the numbers stood out to me.
Speaker 1: At the Ravens laying four seemed light, and I felt
Speaker 1: like the over under at forty two and a half
Speaker 1: also seemed light. Out of curiosity, do you have any
Speaker 1: feel on that over under? Is that about right where
Speaker 1: you think it should be?
Speaker 3: I mean, that's about right.
Speaker 2: Like I said, the defense for the Steelers is a
Speaker 2: pretty good unit, so I would not be expecting a
Speaker 2: ton of scoring in this game. That seems right to me.
Speaker 2: You know, It's worth noting that like this is going
Speaker 2: to be a very public side. Looks like tons of
Speaker 2: money rolling in on the Ravens already as a percentage,
Speaker 2: and the number of bets as well.
Speaker 1: So I'm just do you draw conclusions from that out
Speaker 1: of curiosity this early on in the week, because I'm.
Speaker 2: Not really I mean, I'm just pointing out that that's
Speaker 2: the trend is that the public side is probably going
Speaker 2: to end up being the Ravens side unless this line
Speaker 2: moves significantly. And I don't know, I just I don't
Speaker 2: love just like completely getting a lot of money on
Speaker 2: bets that are just like purely public that the books
Speaker 2: are knowing that they're going to need for their particular week.
Speaker 2: I mean, at the end of the day, that's just
Speaker 2: it doesn't seem like good process right to be that
Speaker 2: far against the book. I mean, the book definitely knows
Speaker 2: what they're getting into here.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, numbers like this scare me a little bit when
Speaker 1: I have a very strong feeling on it, because I
Speaker 1: feel like, exactly as you said, this strikes me as
Speaker 1: a number that I think that John Q. Public is
Speaker 1: going to look at it, and maybe the books are
Speaker 1: banking on the fact that the Ravens look so terrible
Speaker 1: against the Browns that they're not going to get all
Speaker 1: that much money. I don't really think that's necessarily going
Speaker 1: to be the case. I think a team like the Ravens,
Speaker 1: given how they performed early on and they lost a
Speaker 1: close game to the Chiefs, I think the public is
Speaker 1: still going to be on them. So when I see
Speaker 1: these numbers. They strike me as it's likely that the
Speaker 1: number of bets and you know, we'll see about the money,
Speaker 1: because that's more about the sharp betters. But the number
Speaker 1: of bets is going to be wrongly in favor of
Speaker 1: the Ravens, which makes me a little worried because that's
Speaker 1: how I initially lean, and you really don't lose money
Speaker 1: when you fade the public. So it is something that
Speaker 1: I think this line is certainly capable of moving, depending
Speaker 1: on how the money comes in. Let's move on here
Speaker 1: to the Patriots at the Redskins. The Patriots are currently
Speaker 1: laying fifteen and a half. Now, this was fourteen and
Speaker 1: a half when I checked yesterday. The over under is
Speaker 1: forty four and a half. Last I saw Jay Gruden
Speaker 1: decline to name a starter. If he does name Haskins,
Speaker 1: I would assume the spread it would probably jump in
Speaker 1: favor of the Patriots by maybe a point or something
Speaker 1: like that. And even though case Keenum did not look
Speaker 1: all that good. So Patriots on the road here at
Speaker 1: the Redskins laying fifteen and a half with a total
Speaker 1: of forty four and a half. How do you feel
Speaker 1: about that?
Speaker 2: Do you think the Patriots will score forty four points
Speaker 2: or forty five points, because I just have no confidence
Speaker 2: whatsoever in the Washington offense in the spot. Just just
Speaker 2: give me the under here until I can convince myself
Speaker 2: the Patriots are going to score more than whatever whatever
Speaker 2: the total is, because I really think shutout is well
Speaker 2: within the range of outcomes here for watching it.
Speaker 3: That will happen.
Speaker 2: But I mean, will they score ten points? I would
Speaker 2: not bet the over on ten I don't think. I
Speaker 2: really think that this defense is very good and the
Speaker 2: Washington offense is very bad.
Speaker 1: Yeah, don't sell it short. A shutout could legitimately happen here.
Speaker 1: I mean, especially if it's Haskins throwing themall. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: they were they allowed their first you know, offensive touchdown
Speaker 1: against the Bills, but they held them in check entirely.
Speaker 1: They faced a run of really bad opponents, Steelers perhaps
Speaker 1: being the exception in opening week. But that defense is
Speaker 1: one hundred percent legitimate. So, I mean, honestly, out of curiosity,
Speaker 1: if you are analyzing the game that way, which I
Speaker 1: think it's one hundred percent correct, what's wrong with the
Speaker 1: Pats laying fifteen and a half? I mean, the Pats
Speaker 1: are going to score you know, they had a tough
Speaker 1: Bills team and they scored sixteen and they looked terrible.
Speaker 1: I mean, do you think they're gonna probably wind up
Speaker 1: coming up putting up above twenty above, you know, twenty
Speaker 1: four or something like that here.
Speaker 2: Boy, you know, I just don't. I don't like to
Speaker 2: get involved with Patriots long. I don't know what it
Speaker 2: is about these Patriot lines when you're talking about like
Speaker 2: because in theory, when you see an NFL team getting
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, you're not supposed to like that.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's what I was saying with the
Speaker 1: Dolphins where I don't. I never like it, and so
Speaker 1: I'm always like, man, there's value here in the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: and that's why I meant like, I cannot take them. Look, Washington,
Speaker 1: they're not anywhere close to that at this point. But
Speaker 1: if they throw Haskins into there, and you know, the
Speaker 1: problem was Jay grun I think did this correctly. Okay,
Speaker 1: he did not throw Haskins into that Monday night game
Speaker 1: against the Bears, right because he would have gotten absolutely destroyed.
Speaker 1: Keenan was terrible in this game against the Giants. The
Speaker 1: Giants have a terrible defense. They threw them out there like, Okay,
Speaker 1: this is it. It's a weak defense, and he was awful.
Speaker 1: I mean that the Redskins really there was no Terry McLaurin,
Speaker 1: to be fair, but the Redskins could be approaching not
Speaker 1: Dolphin level, because I think Dolphins level is really bad,
Speaker 1: but they could be a team that you're gonna be
Speaker 1: seeing these spreads that are going to be pushing sixteen seventeen.
Speaker 1: And I agree, I don't really like to get involved
Speaker 1: in it, although I'll be honest, this one piques my
Speaker 1: interest a little bit. I think it's gonna rise, by
Speaker 1: the way. I think whatever happens, I think when this closes,
Speaker 1: it is going to be more like sixteen and a
Speaker 1: half or something like that. But we'll have to see.
Speaker 1: But you're saying, essentially you like the total at least
Speaker 1: on an initial glance, right, because you think essentially that
Speaker 1: Washington's going to have trouble scoring. And I think you're
Speaker 1: putting it probably on the Patriots, let's say, to be
Speaker 1: held under you know, thirty five or something like that, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know I would consider the total if
Speaker 2: I could get it, like without it rising substantially. And
Speaker 2: I was and I knew for sure Haskins was a QBA.
Speaker 2: Can I tell you a secret that I don't think
Speaker 2: anyone needs to know just yet, But I think I
Speaker 2: think Dwayne Haskins might not be good. No, like I
Speaker 2: think now after watching preseason and watching that performance last week,
Speaker 2: like the you know, the whispers are starting in my head,
Speaker 2: like this guy doesn't look that good.
Speaker 1: Okay, look, everybody, okay, you have now heard it here first.
Speaker 1: Okay from Chris Jamino. You have heard it here. It's
Speaker 1: possible that Dwayne Haskins is not good. Okay, So look,
Speaker 1: don't go spreading it around because it's kind of a
Speaker 1: secret and he told you that in confidence, but it
Speaker 1: is possible that it could be true. Yeah, it's really
Speaker 1: funny the way the season has unfolded with Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1: You know, looking he didn't look great in this past game,
Speaker 1: but looking so much better given all the flak that
Speaker 1: the Giants got for him. So yes, if Haskins is
Speaker 1: named the starter, I'll be all over whatever it is
Speaker 1: in favor of the Patriots. But my guess is he's
Speaker 1: gonna go with Keenum here just to protect him, since
Speaker 1: Haskins looked completely completely unprepared to go up against an
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Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred ambler. All right, Chris, let's
Speaker 1: move on to our next game here, Cardinals at the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Now again, this is something where we have not yet
Speaker 1: seen the Bengals on Monday night, So this could move
Speaker 1: depending on a variety of factors. But as of right now,
Speaker 1: it's the Bengals are laying four and a half points
Speaker 1: and the over under is at forty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there could be some points scored tonight
Speaker 2: here in this game with the Steelers. I don't necessarily
Speaker 2: think all that or even most of that's going to
Speaker 2: come from the Bengals side, but I do think that
Speaker 2: shootouts tend to happen when there's two bad defenses facing
Speaker 2: offenses that can operate with efficiency, especially if there's a
Speaker 2: lot of play volume, and these are two new offenses
Speaker 2: that really want to get a lot of plays off,
Speaker 2: really want to be more involved in the past game
Speaker 2: right now, the opponents that the Cardinals and Bengals have
Speaker 2: faced have not maybe exposed the way that they both
Speaker 2: want to play when they're operating at their most efficient,
Speaker 2: And I do think that the over has a good
Speaker 2: chance of hitting here if in fact, these defenses are
Speaker 2: as bad as I think they are. Both teams in
Speaker 2: the bottom ten of positive play percentage per Sports Info Solutions.
Speaker 2: The Cardinals were eleventh before yesterday's game. I can't imagine
Speaker 2: they improved after that performance last week. So I'm expecting
Speaker 2: the offenses to be more efficient than they've been to
Speaker 2: start this season. And I would really be looking at
Speaker 2: the over here in this spot when I look at
Speaker 2: the way this shakes out, don't don't. I can't say
Speaker 2: I'm like loving it, but I do like it a
Speaker 2: little bit.
Speaker 1: No, I totally agree with you the over if anything
Speaker 1: stuck out to me on this one. I think both
Speaker 1: offenses are going to be able to move the ball.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Murray and the Arizona offense was
Speaker 1: not good against Seattle. I fully admit that, and Seattle
Speaker 1: doesn't have a great defense in my opinion, so it
Speaker 1: was a little bit of a negative factor. But certainly
Speaker 1: this is going to be against a Bengals team on
Speaker 1: a short week both offenses. I like what Zach Taylor
Speaker 1: has done with the Bengals offense and against Arizona you
Speaker 1: don't have to have a world beating offense to be
Speaker 1: able to put up a lot of points. And I
Speaker 1: think in the end, the Cardinals are probably going to
Speaker 1: come out They're going to do what they usually do,
Speaker 1: which is script the first couple of drives for Murray,
Speaker 1: and I think they're probably going to be able to
Speaker 1: put up points, So I agree early lean here would
Speaker 1: be over on the forty eight and a half. The
Speaker 1: Bengals laying four and a half. I don't really have
Speaker 1: a good feel for at this point. Even assuming nothing
Speaker 1: happens that strikes me as around the right number, I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna basically stay there. I don't think the
Speaker 1: sharps will necessarily favor one side or the other, so
Speaker 1: I think that's probably where we'll end up. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to the Jaguars at the Panthers. The Panthers here
Speaker 1: are laying three and a half and the over unders
Speaker 1: at forty one. Kyle Allen will start again. Not sure
Speaker 1: if we're gonna see Jalen Ramsey on the field. You
Speaker 1: know he missed this one with his back injury, but
Speaker 1: he's also said he's not sure whether or not he's
Speaker 1: gonna play another game for the Jaguars. So how about here,
Speaker 1: Panthers at home laying three and a half with an
Speaker 1: over under at forty one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if I was going to take a
Speaker 2: side on the total here, it would probably be on
Speaker 2: the underdog Jaguars against the Panthers. I actually don't have
Speaker 2: a lot of respect for what the Panthers are doing
Speaker 2: so far. I think they still need to prove it
Speaker 2: to me as far as what they can do as
Speaker 2: a team defensively. On offense, certainly they've got plenty of
Speaker 2: plenty of capability, but this would be a matchup where,
Speaker 2: you know, the Jaguars might have the tools to put
Speaker 2: a damper on Christian McCaffrey and maybe not allow him
Speaker 2: to just run completely wild. You know, you know, watching
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco move the ball a little bit wasn't that encouraging.
Speaker 2: And we've seen some negative signs from the Jaguars defense too,
Speaker 2: So I'm not saying that there's some end all be
Speaker 2: all type of a defensive unit here, But I you know,
Speaker 2: I don't really love either one of these sides. It's
Speaker 2: a pretty good line, but if I was going to
Speaker 2: lean one way, it would be towards the Jaguars because I, again,
Speaker 2: I don't have a lot of trust in what the
Speaker 2: Panthers are doing right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't really feel great about the spread. I mean,
Speaker 1: I want to look at Gardner Minchew and see how
Speaker 1: he actually came out because I know he's limping a
Speaker 1: little bit at the end of that game. It strikes
Speaker 1: me about right. For me, the total again is where
Speaker 1: I look a little bit. And you mentioned it. If
Speaker 1: you were going one way or the other, you probably
Speaker 1: might be looking at the other. That's where I'm looking
Speaker 1: at it, because I really I like Kyle Allen as
Speaker 1: more of a game manager. But the guy who threw
Speaker 1: four touchdown passes or whatever against the Cardinals, that's not
Speaker 1: what he is. Okay, He's going to be able to
Speaker 1: keep your team in the game. He's more accurate than
Speaker 1: Cam Newton was when you know he was being bothered
Speaker 1: by his foot or shoulder or whatever. In the end
Speaker 1: that it turned out to be and that's fine. But
Speaker 1: I don't see this as an explode of offense at all.
Speaker 1: And the Jaguars still have a relatively strong defense. I
Speaker 1: know Joe Flacco, as you mentioned, was able to move
Speaker 1: the ball pretty well, especially at the end, and on
Speaker 1: the other side of the ball. Look the Jaguars. You know,
Speaker 1: Minshew's got a little magic going. But the Panthers are
Speaker 1: tough against the pass. They really are. They're able to
Speaker 1: get to the quarterback a little bit, but they've got
Speaker 1: strong cornerbacks, especially Bradberry, they're a little vulnerable against the run,
Speaker 1: and so I think the Jaguars plan of attack, assuming
Speaker 1: that Leonard Fournett can carry the load once again, would
Speaker 1: be to probably control the game on the ground, which
Speaker 1: leads me to a low scoring thing. And with the Panthers,
Speaker 1: I mean, I had the one bet that I kind
Speaker 1: of nailed and had in really early this past week
Speaker 1: was the under on the Panthers game because I think
Speaker 1: that's how they really are going to play these games.
Speaker 1: They're going to play these tight, low scoring games and
Speaker 1: try to win it out with their defense and with
Speaker 1: managing it. So that's really how I would see that.
Speaker 1: The total again not high, it's only for to one,
Speaker 1: but I think in the end, if I lean one way,
Speaker 1: it would probably be on the under in this game.
Speaker 1: Bucks at Saints would be next game. Now, this has
Speaker 1: been bouncing back and forth a little bit. The Saints
Speaker 1: right now are laying four and a half points at
Speaker 1: home to the Bucks. It was when I checked last
Speaker 1: night four and a half. I checked this morning it
Speaker 1: was five and a half. I checked right before we
Speaker 1: came on, and it's back to four and a half.
Speaker 1: The over under is at forty eight. Both teams are
Speaker 1: coming off really really big time wins, the Saints relying
Speaker 1: on their defense to beat the Cowboys, the Bucks lighting
Speaker 1: it up against the Rams. As we talked about earlier,
Speaker 1: what's your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 3: Give me the Saints.
Speaker 2: I do not have faith that what we saw last
Speaker 2: week from Tampa Bay is something that you can expect
Speaker 2: with consistency. Jameis Winston has proven to be an inefficient
Speaker 2: quarterback and someone who doesn't even operate that well when
Speaker 2: the pockets clean. So if you know the Saints can
Speaker 2: do anything close to what they did against Dallas last
Speaker 2: night defensively, I mean just you know, I would I
Speaker 2: would easily easily easily shy away from thinking that the
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers or anywhere close to as good of
Speaker 2: a team as what the Saints can be, you know,
Speaker 2: even without Drew Brees right, like we've seen them come
Speaker 2: through with the game plan that's you know, really try
Speaker 2: to slow down these games and really turn it into
Speaker 2: you know, more of a grinded out type of a situation.
Speaker 2: And I don't think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers farewell in
Speaker 2: that scenario at all, especially not on the road. So
Speaker 2: I'm you know, my you know, to spread. If I
Speaker 2: can get three points, I would like that the best.
Speaker 2: If I can get better than that, even better, But
Speaker 2: you know otherwise, I'm just not like in love with
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay at all, And I would.
Speaker 1: Like the Saints for almost the same exact reasons. I
Speaker 1: really like the under here, okay, because I think the
Speaker 1: way you describe this is exactly right. I mean, James
Speaker 1: Winston's a little doctor Jackal and mister Hyde, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: you do not know how this team is gonna come
Speaker 1: out necessarily, and the Saints, as they showed yesterday, have
Speaker 1: a really really strong defense. It's going to be a
Speaker 1: divisional game, which means they're going to get up for it.
Speaker 1: And I don't expect the Bucks to be able to
Speaker 1: put up a ton of points in this game for
Speaker 1: basically exactly the reasons that you said. At the same time,
Speaker 1: I don't think these Saints are built to do that either.
Speaker 1: I mean, Bridgewater is basically out there to manage the games,
Speaker 1: to rely on the defense, and to win kind of close, close,
Speaker 1: you know, hard fought in the trenches type of game.
Speaker 1: So in the end, I also favor the Saints. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure I love it at four and a half.
Speaker 1: It's if you can get it closer. I think I
Speaker 1: would lean that way too. I do think the Saints
Speaker 1: are going to win, but the total for me because
Speaker 1: of that, because I think they're going to rely so
Speaker 1: much on their defense. At forty eight, I like the
Speaker 1: under there for basically the reasons that you described. Let's
Speaker 1: move on to Jets at Eagles. The Eagles are currently
Speaker 1: laying fourteen. It was at thirteen and a half, so
Speaker 1: it's moved a tiny bit since I checked early this morning,
Speaker 1: and the over under is at forty four and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: this sounds like Sam Darnold is probably not going to
Speaker 1: play in this game. He's progressing in the right direction.
Speaker 1: I think he's practicing either with no contact or something,
Speaker 1: but it looks a little bit more likely that he's
Speaker 1: going to be out this week. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel right now at Eagles laying fourteen in the over
Speaker 1: under at forty four and a half.
Speaker 3: Well, I certainly don't like the Jets.
Speaker 2: If Luke Falk's going to be involved here, I do
Speaker 2: you know, I think the line is probably about fair
Speaker 2: If that's the case, and that's so it looks like
Speaker 2: a Luke Falk line right now. But even so, like
Speaker 2: I'm like, I'm not interested in taking the Jets here,
Speaker 2: and I'm not interested in taking a team laying two
Speaker 2: touchdowns either, So I'm pretty much off this spread right
Speaker 2: now as it stands. I think the under would be
Speaker 2: the more interesting side here if you think the Jets
Speaker 2: defense is fairly you know, fairly capable of limiting what
Speaker 2: the Eagles can do on offense. I'm not one hundred
Speaker 2: percent sure of that, So I don't really love either
Speaker 2: side of this. It would be it would be the
Speaker 2: under if I had to take one gun to my head,
Speaker 2: but I just don't. I just don't really like this
Speaker 2: spot at all. I'm not really confident in who the
Speaker 2: Eagles are just yet as an offensive team, you know,
Speaker 2: Are they a team that can you know, light up
Speaker 2: a good defense for a bunch of points to the
Speaker 2: point where an over would hit. I'm not really confident
Speaker 2: of that at the moment. So that's where I would
Speaker 2: say the under is my favorite part of this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I basically agree with everything that you've laid out.
Speaker 1: I do think that if Donald were to play, although
Speaker 1: given the fact that he's not really where he needs
Speaker 1: to be, maybe I wouldn't. But I was thinking if
Speaker 1: Donald was totally cleared and he had a full week
Speaker 1: of practice and ready to go, I might the Jets
Speaker 1: in the spot because I do think that the Jets
Speaker 1: have a capable offense once you put Donald under center,
Speaker 1: and their defense CJ. Moseley has had an extra week
Speaker 1: to rest, so they're they're gonna end. Quinnin Williams will
Speaker 1: be back as well, so the defense is going to be,
Speaker 1: you know, much stronger than it looked the past couple
Speaker 1: of games. But if Lukewalk is out there, all bets
Speaker 1: are off. I mean, you know, you don't want to
Speaker 1: take a team laying fourteen points, but there's no way,
Speaker 1: as basically you aptly put it, there's just no way
Speaker 1: you can back Lukewalk no matter basically what he's getting
Speaker 1: the total. I agree, seems like the under would probably
Speaker 1: be the spot to go if you had to pick
Speaker 1: a choice, because I think Falk has such trouble moving
Speaker 1: the ball and you don't expect the Eagles to, you know,
Speaker 1: be able to put up thirty or anything like that.
Speaker 1: But as a general feeling, on this one, given that
Speaker 1: Donald is probably out, it's a stay away game for
Speaker 1: both of us, So I'm glad we're in agreement on
Speaker 1: that one. Bears at Raiders technically, but they are in London,
Speaker 1: so it's more like a neutral field. The Bears here
Speaker 1: are laying four and a half. The over under is
Speaker 1: at forty. Now this sounds like Mitchell Trubisky is almost
Speaker 1: certainly going to be out this week. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: if that's necessarily a downgrade to Chase Daniel. He looked
Speaker 1: pretty competent in their win over the Vikings. The Raiders
Speaker 1: are coming off an uber impressive win over the Cult,
Speaker 1: So in London, Bears lank four and a half over
Speaker 1: under at forty. How do you feel, man?
Speaker 2: I was my favorite bet of the week last week
Speaker 2: was the Raiders plus seven. I ended up making a
Speaker 2: bunch of money on that. Of course lost a bunch
Speaker 2: of other bets, But you know, at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, the Raiders take was a great take, and
Speaker 2: I really just felt like that was more because of
Speaker 2: what the Colts defense wasn't going to do in that game.
Speaker 2: I cannot say the same thing for the Bears defense
Speaker 2: in this spot. If Trubisky was there. I do think, unfortunately,
Speaker 2: that he is a slight upgrade at the quarterback position
Speaker 2: versus what you've gotten Chas Daniel. I realized Chase Daniel
Speaker 2: played well last week, but I've just seen a much
Speaker 2: larger sample size of him completely being inept on offense.
Speaker 2: And you know, it's overseas, so I don't really know
Speaker 2: what to expect from that point of view. But at
Speaker 2: the end of the day, when it's all said and done,
Speaker 2: I do not think the Raiders are going to be
Speaker 2: able to score in this spot, and that's where I
Speaker 2: think I might lean towards the under forty two. If
Speaker 2: you can get forty two, that'd be great. I think
Speaker 2: it was like you have forty right now. I don't
Speaker 2: think I would be as excited at that number, but
Speaker 2: I definitely don't think the Raiders are going to score.
Speaker 2: So it's either the Bears if you think they can
Speaker 2: clear that minus four and a half, or the under.
Speaker 2: But I'm I'm certainly not wanting anything to do with
Speaker 2: the Raiders here in this spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not scared off of the forty I mean,
Speaker 1: I get it. I wish it wasn't dropping like it
Speaker 1: was but right now at forty, I still lean towards
Speaker 1: the Bears. I completely agree, especially especially with the Raiders
Speaker 1: coming off such a big win. I believe they're coming
Speaker 1: off two road games, if I'm not mistaken, so this
Speaker 1: counts as their home game in London, and it's not
Speaker 1: a home game. They're basically another road game, and it's
Speaker 1: technically going to I don't even know what the time
Speaker 1: zone technically, I guess it's going to be, so I'm
Speaker 1: not even going to say that, but they're certainly not
Speaker 1: going to be on their usual schedule. I think it's
Speaker 1: going to be a really, really difficult thing to get
Speaker 1: up for this game. After their giant win. It can
Speaker 1: see a huge letdown when you saw what the Bears
Speaker 1: defense was able to do to that Vikings offense. I
Speaker 1: get it the Vikings have trouble passing the ball, but
Speaker 1: even just to totally stifle Dalvin Cook, I agree. I
Speaker 1: do not see the Raiders being able to put up
Speaker 1: many points, and with Chase Daniel, I don't necessarily see
Speaker 1: the Bears being able to put up a lot of points.
Speaker 1: So I still like the over under at forty. I'm
Speaker 1: totally with you. It was at even forty one, I
Speaker 1: felt like that was a much better number, But at
Speaker 1: forty I still lean that way, and with the spread
Speaker 1: four and a half. If I had to go one
Speaker 1: way or another, I'd lean the Bears. But again not
Speaker 1: not overly confident in it. But you and I are
Speaker 1: viewing this game the exact same way. We do not
Speaker 1: expect much of a showing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the ender is definitely the sharper side. I mean
Speaker 2: not you talked me into it. The under let's do
Speaker 2: what under forty?
Speaker 1: All right? Under forty. Let's hope it doesn't drop further
Speaker 1: than that. But if not, yeah, I'm totally good with it.
Speaker 1: I can't see the Raiders really putting up much of anything. Now,
Speaker 1: before we finish up with our last few games, I
Speaker 1: do want tomind everyone about our September contests where we're
Speaker 1: giving away a signed Alvin Mari helmet. Now, although this
Speaker 1: is our September contest, we're actually extending this one a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, so you can go hook and get
Speaker 1: your reviews in now. To be entered, all you need
Speaker 1: to do is leave a review for the show on
Speaker 1: iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review
Speaker 1: to contest at bettingpros dot com. It takes two seconds
Speaker 1: to do and you are automatically entered into this and
Speaker 1: all future contests. So go for it, all right, Let's
Speaker 1: move on here to Vikings at Giants. The Vikings here
Speaker 1: are currently laying five and a half with the over
Speaker 1: under at forty five and a half. How do you
Speaker 1: feel about that?
Speaker 2: Well, if the Giants are beating teams like the Redskins
Speaker 2: and the Buccaneers, color me fully unimpressed. And color me
Speaker 2: unimpressed by the idea that the Vikings couldn't pass on
Speaker 2: the Bears right because they weren't able to protect their
Speaker 2: quarterback and otherwise, I feel like the passing offense has
Speaker 2: upside comparatively, and that's where the Giants absolutely stink. They've
Speaker 2: got roasted by a number of teams in the passing
Speaker 2: games to start this season. And not to mention the
Speaker 2: fact that Dalvin Cook is a beast, one of the
Speaker 2: best in the league. I don't think the Giants are
Speaker 2: going to be able to slow him down either. If
Speaker 2: we're talking about a line of five and a half,
Speaker 2: that's basically you might as well be a touchdown. I'm
Speaker 2: still thinking the Vikings can clear that, so I actually
Speaker 2: like the Vikings minus five and a half. I think
Speaker 2: that they're going to crush.
Speaker 1: My early lean is, this is my favorite bet on
Speaker 1: the slate for sure. I think this is going to
Speaker 1: I think I feel bad for the Giants here. I
Speaker 1: think the Vikings are going to be mad. I think
Speaker 1: they are going to come out and they are going
Speaker 1: to pound Daniel Jones, who again, you know, the shine
Speaker 1: is off a little bit. He did not look great
Speaker 1: at all against the Redskins. You know, I know they
Speaker 1: were able to move the ball with Wayne Gollman, but
Speaker 1: he really, you know, he was not quite that impressive.
Speaker 1: You've got an angry Vikings team. I think they're going
Speaker 1: to put up a huge defensive performance. I think Cook
Speaker 1: is going to be able to do whatever Hee wants.
Speaker 1: I think they are going to use this game as
Speaker 1: a get right game for the passing game. You've already
Speaker 1: got Adam Thielen basically calling out the coaching sab saying
Speaker 1: we need to throw the ball. It's gonna be a
Speaker 1: little bit of a squeaky wheel type game. So my
Speaker 1: early lean on this is, Oh, I'm all over the Vikings.
Speaker 1: At it was at five I got in on it
Speaker 1: when it was five. It's at five and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: that's fine. I'd do it up to a touchdown at
Speaker 1: this point, and frankly, if it got to a touchdown,
Speaker 1: I don't even know. But again, this is one that
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous just because you just look
Speaker 1: at the line, right your first instinct and it's we
Speaker 1: have the exact same instinct, right, So chance we're both
Speaker 1: well informed guys, But chances are the John Q public
Speaker 1: is going to look at that line and they're also
Speaker 1: going to want the Viking. So it's it's a little
Speaker 1: surprising to me when I see a line that looks
Speaker 1: like it's going to entice the public to go one way,
Speaker 1: you know, because that suggests that that's what they want.
Speaker 1: But in the end, Vikings saying five and a half
Speaker 1: is something that I feel uber comfortable with.
Speaker 2: At the moment, this line will go up, and you
Speaker 2: just bet it now, because if you don't, then you're
Speaker 2: not going to get the number that you want here.
Speaker 2: You know, if you can get you a little bit
Speaker 2: of extra value right now, I agree with you that, like, yeah,
Speaker 2: maybe there's a little bit of hesitation because the line
Speaker 2: looks so soft, but maybe that's just true, maybe just
Speaker 2: pound because it's soft.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And again being on the public side, which I'm
Speaker 1: sure this is going to be, it's not always a
Speaker 1: bad thing. I mean, I remember the Rams against the
Speaker 1: Browns on Monday Night Football, which I saw the line
Speaker 1: at three and I was all over it. I mean
Speaker 1: right from the get go, and I knew it was
Speaker 1: going to be overwhelmingly public. But I couldn't get away
Speaker 1: from it because it didn't really matter, because that line
Speaker 1: just seemed way too small given what it was, and
Speaker 1: it was in the end, although it obviously could have
Speaker 1: been much closer at the end if the play calling
Speaker 1: had been a little different. But it's not. You don't
Speaker 1: have to run away from public bets. It just makes
Speaker 1: you a little nervous. But this one, I think you
Speaker 1: and I are both on the same side where we're like,
Speaker 1: I don't really care what the public's doing because we're
Speaker 1: all good with it. At the current spread, let's move
Speaker 1: on to the Broncos at the Chargers. The Chargers here
Speaker 1: are currently laying six and a half and the over
Speaker 1: under is at forty three and a half. That struck
Speaker 1: me both of those numbers as about right. I know,
Speaker 1: Bradley Chubb now is out for the season, so that
Speaker 1: takes a little bit of the shine off the Broncos defense.
Speaker 1: But how do you feel about that Broncos at the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Chargers laying six and a half over under at forty
Speaker 1: three and a half, I.
Speaker 2: Don't really feel comfortable betting the Chargers, you know, giving
Speaker 2: that many points right now. I mean I have trouble
Speaker 2: betting the Broncos too, But like the Chargers just seem
Speaker 2: every single year to show up and keep things closer
Speaker 2: than they should be, you know, giveaway spots that they
Speaker 2: shouldn't give away. Like I'm almost surprised they covered against
Speaker 2: the Dolphins last week because you know, the way that
Speaker 2: game started, it looked like it was going to be
Speaker 2: yet another Chargers situation where they underwhelmed in a spot
Speaker 2: they're supposed to come in and do something. Now that
Speaker 2: being said, they are in a quote unquote home game
Speaker 2: against the team that's owned four and giving up last
Speaker 2: second touchdown drives to a rookie. So when when I
Speaker 2: added all the factors together, is as little confident as
Speaker 2: I have in the Chargers, it would be towards the
Speaker 2: side of them controlling this game. And really having their
Speaker 2: way against the Broncos more so than not. But I'm
Speaker 2: not really in love with it.
Speaker 1: I've got no feel for this game because what you
Speaker 1: said about the Chargers is exactly right. So I first
Speaker 1: kind of look at this game and I'm like, you
Speaker 1: know what, this is a spot where the Chargers just
Speaker 1: lay an egg because this is what they do every
Speaker 1: single year. And the problem is, look, I like the
Speaker 1: Broncos this week laying three did the Jags, and you know,
Speaker 1: in the end, they just kind of threw up all
Speaker 1: over themselves, and I don't really have confidence and their
Speaker 1: ability to go up there and win this game or
Speaker 1: even necessarily keep it close. I think this is kind
Speaker 1: of a backbreaking loss for them in kind of what
Speaker 1: was their quote unquote last ditch effort to save their
Speaker 1: season even though they weren't going to go anywhere. But
Speaker 1: now they're owned four. So in the end, I basically
Speaker 1: have reasons on both sides of the ball to not
Speaker 1: like this line at all, like to not go one
Speaker 1: way or the other. So it is a game for
Speaker 1: me again, seems about right where the numbers are, and
Speaker 1: it's something where I don't really have a lean one
Speaker 1: way or another because I don't trust either team, So
Speaker 1: I think you and I will both just stay away
Speaker 1: from it and we'll both live to fight another day.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Packers at the Cowboys. A
Speaker 1: really interesting game here. The Cowboys here are laying three
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, it was four and a half
Speaker 1: when I checked on Sunday night before that Cowboys game
Speaker 1: wrapped up. I don't know whether or not there was
Speaker 1: money that came in or whether or not the books
Speaker 1: moved generally because of how the Cowboys looked in that game.
Speaker 1: But again, Packers at Cowboys, Cowboys are laying three and
Speaker 1: a half and the over under is at forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half. How do you feel there?
Speaker 2: I'm a little scared of both sides of this bet
Speaker 2: because I would generally like to favor the Cowboys at home.
Speaker 2: I would generally like to favor the under looking at
Speaker 2: how these two defenses have performed. But then you know,
Speaker 2: I'd be taking the under against two efficient quarterbacks, and
Speaker 2: that's not really how I want to live my life.
Speaker 2: So I won't live it that way, and I probably
Speaker 2: won't make that bet. So I'm wish you watch you here.
Speaker 2: I don't have a strong position, and I'm supposed to
Speaker 2: have a position on this, but you know, under forty
Speaker 2: seven and a half, I mean that could easily see
Speaker 2: situations where that goes over. Both these guys can completely
Speaker 2: come out firing, you know, deep touchdowns, accurate passes to
Speaker 2: great receivers. There's no real way for me to fall
Speaker 2: in love with the total side of this game. And
Speaker 2: then of course the spread. I mean we're talking about
Speaker 2: two three and one teams. I think it's a coin
Speaker 2: flip and this is this is like the exact kind
Speaker 2: of bet that I just don't want anything to do with.
Speaker 1: Yeah, first of all, you said, you know you should
Speaker 1: have a position or something like that. You don't have
Speaker 1: to have a position, man, I mean part of the
Speaker 1: time we look at stuff and that's exactly where it is.
Speaker 1: We don't like either side because the number is about
Speaker 1: where it needs to be, and I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think on the total, I lean a little bit
Speaker 1: towards the under here. And the reason is, really, look,
Speaker 1: both these teams have pretty solid defenses. The Packers in
Speaker 1: particular have a really really good pass defense, but they
Speaker 1: get gashed by the run. So I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a lot of Ezekiel Elliott here, and when you
Speaker 1: do that, I think it's going to be a little
Speaker 1: bit more of a control the clock type of game.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to lean on the run pretty heavily.
Speaker 1: I don't see Rogers being able to do a crazy
Speaker 1: amount here, So if I leaned anywhere, I kind of
Speaker 1: a little bit leaning towards the under not overwhelmingly. It's
Speaker 1: not one of my favorite bets or anything like that,
Speaker 1: even at this point, but with the spread in particular,
Speaker 1: I don't feel it. Man. I don't have a good
Speaker 1: sense of what the Packers are doing. I mean, they
Speaker 1: come out and they always look great on offense, and
Speaker 1: then they just don't score at all in the second half,
Speaker 1: So there wouldn't be a time where I would feel
Speaker 1: really comfortable with them. At the same time, they basically
Speaker 1: have a mini by here because of the fact that
Speaker 1: they played the Thursday night game and the Cowboys I
Speaker 1: have a little bit of a short week because they
Speaker 1: played on Sunday night. So in the end, it's something
Speaker 1: where if I had to choose a side, I think
Speaker 1: I would lean towards the Packers because I see this
Speaker 1: being as a really close game. So as long as
Speaker 1: that spread stays above the key number of three. I
Speaker 1: probably lean there, and I'd probably lean a little bit
Speaker 1: towards the under forty seven and a half, but not overwhelmingly.
Speaker 1: So let's move on to the Colts at the Chiefs Here,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs now are laying ten and a half. It
Speaker 1: was nine and a half when I first checked, and
Speaker 1: the over under at a pretty hefty fifty seven. You've
Speaker 1: got injuries on the Colts side of the ball. You've
Speaker 1: got Ty Hilton may or may not be able to
Speaker 1: suit up with that quad injury. You still got Mac
Speaker 1: who had a little bit banged up his ankle, was
Speaker 1: in and out of that game yesterday. It's unclear if
Speaker 1: Darius Leonard is gonna be able to play. So how
Speaker 1: do you feel here, Chiefs at home in primetime Sunday night?
Speaker 1: Ten and a half over under a fifty seven?
Speaker 3: Boy, I like that under a little bit.
Speaker 2: If the Colts are going to be missing Hilton again,
Speaker 2: those receives is just weren't able to get the job
Speaker 2: done against the Raiders no less, you know, like Deon Kane.
Speaker 2: Five targets no catches I think was the number I saw.
Speaker 2: I don't know if he ended up getting win late
Speaker 2: in that game. But man, it just looks bad out
Speaker 2: there for the wide receivers on the Colts. And you know,
Speaker 2: you can't be expected for Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle
Speaker 2: to completely, you know, shred any kind of a defense level.
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs who are going to probably be playing
Speaker 2: with the lead so they'll be able to pin their
Speaker 2: ears back a little bit. I mean, the Cols offensive
Speaker 2: line is very good, so they have that working in
Speaker 2: their favor. But I just, you know, I can't see
Speaker 2: the Chiefs getting enough points to get over this total.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Colts, when they're operating efficiently on defense,
Speaker 2: they're a little bit tougher to get big plays on
Speaker 2: Saying that Patrick Mahomes can't get a big play on
Speaker 2: a team is like writing your own death certificate as
Speaker 2: far as the bets concerned. But if you asked me
Speaker 2: to take a side here on a Monday, which I
Speaker 2: am want to do right now, I'm taking the under
Speaker 2: because I think that's just a little bit too high
Speaker 2: for what the Colts can do on offense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know the number is so high. I
Speaker 1: just don't have a feel for it. I get exactly
Speaker 1: what you're saying the Chiefs at home in prime time,
Speaker 1: I think are going to put up a ton of
Speaker 1: points here, and whether or not, you know, the sort
Speaker 1: of like they did in this past game against the Raiders,
Speaker 1: whether or not the Colts can put up you know,
Speaker 1: points in garbage time, would make me a little iffy
Speaker 1: on the total. This is just not a game I
Speaker 1: want to go near. If anything, I would lean towards
Speaker 1: the under, because I do think that there's value in
Speaker 1: that number. But it would scare the bejeebas out of
Speaker 1: me because I just could see this sort of being
Speaker 1: a game where like, hey, it's looking good here, we're
Speaker 1: looking fine, and then just everybody going crazy and the
Speaker 1: ten and a half, I don't know, I really don't.
Speaker 1: I mean, with the injuries, I don't know if Hilton's
Speaker 1: going to be back, but it doesn't seem like that,
Speaker 1: and they're really again you talked about it. The problem
Speaker 1: is that they don't even have capable number twos or
Speaker 1: number three's who can kind of step in. It's mostly
Speaker 1: the tight ends and eric Gie Brown is showing that
Speaker 1: he was who we thought he was with the drops.
Speaker 1: He did score a touchdown yesterday, but still not enough
Speaker 1: to make me excited about them. So this is a
Speaker 1: game where I don't have a great feel for. But
Speaker 1: if I did go anywhere, it would probably be the
Speaker 1: under But I do I don't feel and I know
Speaker 1: you're not coming on strong on it, but I don't
Speaker 1: even lean in it as much as you do. I
Speaker 1: just feel like there's a game where as of right now,
Speaker 1: I really really don't want to go near for me.
Speaker 3: Don't get me wrong.
Speaker 2: I mean I lean the under here, but like you know,
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes, I mean, if you're I couldn't even completely
Speaker 2: rule out the idea of them getting to fifty seven
Speaker 2: on their own.
Speaker 1: Why that's not even a joke, right.
Speaker 2: I mean that, I mean, of course it's a completely
Speaker 2: complete outliers situation. But you know, the the bottom line
Speaker 2: is that you making under bets against Patrick Mahomes, especially
Speaker 2: if you know, all things being equal, the Coles offense,
Speaker 2: if it's operating the way it's supposed to operate, even
Speaker 2: with Brissette, can put up some points and the Chiefs
Speaker 2: defense is nothing to be scared of. So you know,
Speaker 2: it's this is definitely not one of my favorite spots.
Speaker 1: All right, So you're what you're basically saying is you're
Speaker 1: betting your mortgage on the under.
Speaker 3: Absolutely not got it. I mean, there is no.
Speaker 1: Way everybody heard it. Everybody heard it. Don't worry about it.
Speaker 1: He's got it, mortgage on the under. He's all in. Okay, great,
Speaker 1: Let's move on to our last game, the Monday night
Speaker 1: football game, Browns at the forty nine Ers. Forty nine
Speaker 1: ers here are currently laying three and a half and
Speaker 1: the over under is at forty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: A really nice bounce back game here for the Browns
Speaker 1: to beat the Ravens. They looked pretty good. They still
Speaker 1: have injuries in their secondary Jarvis Landry Is and the
Speaker 1: concussion protocol. But the forty nine ers are coming off
Speaker 1: a bye here and are at home. So forty nine
Speaker 1: Ers leanth three and a half over under at forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half. How do you feel We.
Speaker 2: Haven't seen the forty nine ers in some time, and
Speaker 2: suddenly we think that they're some kind of a fantastic team,
Speaker 2: and they've played well to start this season. But I
Speaker 2: think the Browns underplayed their potential in the first couple
Speaker 2: of weeks here we saw what they're capable of doing
Speaker 2: last week. I'm not saying they're going to go roll
Speaker 2: up forty on the forty nine ers here in this spot.
Speaker 2: But give me the Browns plus three and a half.
Speaker 2: I think that they are probably close to as good
Speaker 2: as we thought they were. They just had a couple
Speaker 2: of bad games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's I don't really disagree with that.
Speaker 1: When it was at three when I first checked, I
Speaker 1: didn't like it as much when it got past the
Speaker 1: key number. Yeah, I lean Browns. I don't feel great
Speaker 1: about it. And you know, teams coming off buys always
Speaker 1: give me, you know, make me a little scared because they,
Speaker 1: you know, especially with a guy like Shanahan who can
Speaker 1: have plenty of time to dream up creative plays and
Speaker 1: stuff like that, and their defense. You know, the thing is,
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm ready to make any conclusions
Speaker 1: about the forty nine ers defense because they've looked strong,
Speaker 1: but I really don't know if they actually are strong.
Speaker 1: So this could be something where the Browns have gotten
Speaker 1: right now with this game, because they they're obviously much
Speaker 1: more talented and should be better than they had looked
Speaker 1: prior to this past week. So this could be a
Speaker 1: game where they're going But you know, Monday Night cross Country.
Speaker 1: I'm a little iffy on it, but as of right now,
Speaker 1: I agree that as long as we're past the key
Speaker 1: number of three at worth three and a half, I
Speaker 1: do lean as well towards the Browns. So I like
Speaker 1: that we're in agreement there. Well, that is going to
Speaker 1: do it for today's show, Chris, it was great having
Speaker 1: you on. Please remind everyone where they can find more
Speaker 1: of you and your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're gonna want to check us out if you're
Speaker 2: playing dfs over at rodo grinders dot com. All the
Speaker 2: tools that you're going to need to set competitive and
Speaker 2: potentially week winning lineups. I think we've had a couple
Speaker 2: of guys get to the tippy top of the leaderboards
Speaker 2: already this season. We'd like you to come and join them.
Speaker 2: Of course, if you want to play some prop bets,
Speaker 2: we've got some tools on rotor Grinders to do that
Speaker 2: based on our player projections. And of course, if you
Speaker 2: are into betting the way that I suspect you are.
Speaker 2: If you're listening to this podcast, you want to check
Speaker 2: us out on the sharp Side app as part of
Speaker 2: the Better Collective Network. I think you can get some
Speaker 2: good information and participate in our gamification of being a
Speaker 2: betting leader amongst your peers. We were trying to turn
Speaker 2: it into the betting community over there, so go ahead
Speaker 2: and check us out on sharpside.
Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on and I hope
Speaker 1: we can do it again during the season.
Speaker 3: Sounds great. Thanks for having me all.
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