1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 2: All right, here we. 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: Go spreading the court ten seconds of eating, so just 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: go show the under the basket. 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 2: Under the basket, it's the truit for the wind God 6 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: big a miracle. 7 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 3: I chuck the water. 8 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot. Welcome to the 9 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. I'm 10 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: your host Jim Root, joined by the rest of the 11 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 2: Three man Weave crew, Kai McEwan and Matt Cox. We 12 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 2: are your midweek Wednesday hosts on BBOC, here stepping in 13 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,599 Speaker 2: for Stuckey and the Fellas. Every Wednesday, of course, we'll 14 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 2: be dropping a new episode talking all things betting in 15 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 2: the world of college basketball. Today's episode we get your 16 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 2: your standard format here. We're going to talk key games 17 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 2: of the week, some a trash man pick of the week, 18 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,959 Speaker 2: the worst game out there, and of course, Matt, we're 19 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 2: tipping off with live dogs of the week where at 20 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 2: least had a little bit of bounce back this week 21 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 2: after a nightmarish week prior. We all hit on Texas 22 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 2: A and M outright consensus. The three of us all 23 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: agreed Texas A and M at Auburn, that's a money 24 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 2: linebacker and they basically led by double digits the whole way. 25 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 2: That's nice. Got that out of the way. Oregon State 26 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 2: and Portland got trounced sadly, but hey, one out of 27 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 2: three with these close to plus three hundred will take them, 28 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 2: or at least some of the times it's up there. 29 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 2: That's not so bad. All right, let's get into what 30 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 2: I'm considering for this week. I think it's a lot 31 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 2: heavier Thursday for money line dogs and it is Wednesday. 32 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: That's just the sense I got as I looked through it. 33 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: But we'll start with two on Wednesday that at least 34 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 2: intrigued me. Southern Illinois plus six at Bradley in the 35 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,279 Speaker 2: Missouri Valley to teams near the top of that league. 36 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 2: And then Maine plus seven Bryant. Maine has been pretty 37 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: solid this year, a lot better than in the past, 38 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 2: and Brian is a very erratic, high variance type of 39 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: team given the amount of threes they take. I'll go 40 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 2: to you first. Here, are you looking at either of 41 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 2: these games an in state Illinois battle or something out 42 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 2: east in the America East. 43 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 4: You know, the Bradley game worries me. 44 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 5: Jim Bradley is really good at home, really really really 45 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 5: good at home. They're nine to two, gets to spread 46 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 5: this season. Whatever makes Puria such a special place, I 47 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 5: don't know, but a nice town. They don't lose often 48 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 5: here now something ILLINOI is certainly a very very good team, 49 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 5: but I think I would more so be willing to 50 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 5: back them at their place versus at Bradley, So. 51 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 4: Staying off that one. 52 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 5: As for Maine, I do think they're a much better 53 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 5: home team as well, but this Brian team has been 54 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 5: anything but certain. I'm also going to stay away from 55 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 5: this one, Jim. From an outright perspective, Jim. 56 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 3: I almost pulled the trigger on Siu. The early early 57 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 3: early peak aheadlines are out for Wednesday at Bello. Line 58 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 3: has this Bradley minus six so right aligne with kem 59 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 3: Pom and Bryant basically at seven and a half, so 60 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 3: on par with. 61 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 4: The Kampond projections there. 62 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 3: I kind of like SYU with this value, just think 63 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 3: it could turn into a slog sw You can do 64 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 3: that to Radley, and as good as Bradley's been, I 65 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 3: think they are not immune to scoring droughts, something you 66 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 3: want to fade if you're looking to pick on him. 67 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:17,519 Speaker 3: As a money line dog here. I kind of like 68 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 3: my Seluki's Kai. I kind of like him here as 69 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 3: a money line dog. Yeah, in section I might, I 70 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 3: might on the official list. I have him on the 71 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 3: fridge right now. Though. 72 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 2: It's two themes that play similar, like very defensive, minded, athletic, 73 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 2: gritty tough. I mean that's kind of uh, what's the 74 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:35,119 Speaker 2: word I'm looking. 75 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 4: For, engraved embedded, Yeah. 76 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 2: Emblematic, That's what I'm looking for. Emblematic of this league 77 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: as a whole, Missouri Valley and so that could lead 78 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 2: to the dog hanging around. But I agree, I'm not 79 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 2: actually backing any I'm not backing Siu. I'm going to 80 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 2: take Maine. I've been kind of a believer in mark 81 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: Wood all year. They got a big victory over UMass 82 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 2: loll earlier this season, as Kai mentioned, that was at home. Bradley. 83 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: Seems like there's something off about them. They're not, excuse me, Bryant. 84 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 2: Something off with Bryant in the America East. I thought 85 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 2: they would be a dominant top two team and they're 86 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 2: barely hanging around. Their talent level is way better than 87 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 2: a lot of the other squads in the league, but 88 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 2: they're just inconsistent. They don't seem like they have a 89 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 2: true pecking order chemistry thing figured out, which is always 90 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 2: concerning when you bring in as much talent to the 91 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,119 Speaker 2: portal as they did. Its all back Maine half spread, 92 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 2: half money line. I think I'll go with their Thursday though. Guys, 93 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 2: a whole lot of candidates, I think, And I'm curious 94 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 2: if you came up with any more on Wednesday or Thursday. 95 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 2: But I'll just fly through five that I listed. I 96 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 2: ended up playing two of them. We'll talk about that 97 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 2: at the end. But Towson is plus six at Hofstra 98 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 2: thousands one six straight. They're already thrashed Hofstra by twenty 99 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 2: one once this year, so perhaps a matchup antidote sort 100 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 2: of thing. Washington State plus five at USC TJ bomba 101 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 2: back for Washington State. They have the size to defend. However, 102 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 2: USC has had a full week off to prepare, so 103 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: perhaps that is a mitigating factor. Michigan plus six at 104 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 2: north Western Jet Howard's back. Michigan needs to stay above 105 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 2: five hundred overall if they have any hope of making 106 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 2: the NCAA tournament, so kind of a backs against Wall game. 107 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 2: UTEP plus seven at Tennessee. You tept a very defensive 108 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,559 Speaker 2: minded squad, and then the opposite of that Right State 109 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 2: plus eight at Youngstown. This could be a shootout total 110 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 2: one sixty one, big time fireworks scoring in that one. 111 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 2: Maybe a little tougher to figure out the outcome, Matt, 112 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 2: you first, that's five of them? You like any of those? 113 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 2: Do you like any others that I did not mention? 114 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 2: Hit me with it? 115 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 4: I like too. 116 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 3: I really like Tousing here. Yeah, this just is a 117 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 3: spot where I think Tousing are undervalued. When Holden was 118 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 3: out and obviously with a little bit of inflated value 119 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 3: off of the monstrous or with the Charleston game fresh 120 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 3: in the rearview, obviously shot the Whites out there. 121 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, Hopes was very good. I just think Toousand's actually better. 122 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 3: So you're getting potentially the better team here at a 123 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 3: probably a plus one seventy five, you know, maybe up 124 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 3: to two to one. Price serve money line dog. I 125 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 3: like Tawson and I also love Right State. There's whispers 126 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 3: Kuy that I'm going to permeate throughout the the O zone. 127 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 3: Youngstown sell sell sell really why they don't guard anything? 128 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 3: Transition to very porous. I think their offense has been awesome, 129 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 3: but their offense is highly reliant on their ability to 130 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 3: score in transition. Calhoun's talks about this. He's like, yeah, man, 131 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 3: we're awesome in transition, but you get us out of transition, 132 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 3: they can us play a half core game. Not that 133 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 3: Right State's the best at doing that, right But I'm 134 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 3: taking a really good coach here in Scott Naggi, the 135 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 3: perennial powerhouse at this conference. At an all time low point, 136 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 3: this number should be close to like plus two twenty five, 137 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 3: maybe two fifty even hopefully knock on wood. I just 138 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 3: think Youkxtown's little bit of fader right now. So that's 139 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 3: why I angle with that one. I got two on 140 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 3: the slate. 141 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 5: Scary one there, I think Right State, I mean talking 142 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 5: about not defending Right State. Well, yeah, Young sound good 143 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 5: home team. But yeah, I'm staying away with that one. 144 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 5: Respect your your take there. I'm taking Towson for sure. 145 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 5: You know, I do think the first game was indicative 146 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 5: of just how this team can dominate Hawstra. In fact, 147 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 5: they swept them last year as well. It's possible, as 148 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 5: Pat Scary just has the manual on speedy claxon his 149 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 5: Hofstra Pride, and I agree Tasend was arguably, I think 150 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 5: not even arguably the favorite to win the Clone Hill 151 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 5: in the preseason. They're certainly playing more to that level. 152 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 5: So I think you're getting some nice value here at 153 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 5: plus six or a money line. And then I'm taking 154 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 5: Michigan as well. Jim, Again, Michigan a team that did 155 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 5: beat Northwestern as well at their place. I think this 156 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,119 Speaker 5: team is more than talented enough to do it again 157 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 5: in Chicago in Evanston, not a super strong home court, 158 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 5: and Michigan off that really terrible loss to Penn State, 159 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 5: should be slightly undervalue, should be hungry to get back 160 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 5: into way and column stick them around an attorney picture. 161 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you, Kay, I'm taking Michigan. I think 162 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 2: that's a really good spot for them. Jet Howard back healthy, 163 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 2: hopefully giving them a little more offensive juice. And while 164 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 2: I do respect Northwestern, this year, the home court is 165 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 2: tough for them, it's not as strong and Kuy's you 166 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 2: pointed out on another show that we work on. Northwestern's 167 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: defense hasn't been as dominant as it was in the 168 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 2: non con. So with that in mind, Michigan's pick and 169 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 2: roll defense still a little concerning in this one against 170 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: Buie and adij But I think Michigan is at some 171 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 2: point going to get motivated enough to really start playing 172 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 2: up to their talent. Dickinson especially. I mean he's coming 173 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 2: off a really, really poor game. So the other one 174 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 2: I'm taking is Wazoo. Matthew, I was surprised you didn't 175 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 2: join me here. Yeah, your Koug's they are three hundred 176 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 2: and sixty first nationally. In luck for ken Pond, they're 177 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 2: way better than that ten and thirteen record indicates lost 178 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 2: a lot of close games. I think they can hang 179 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 2: with USC, and while there's less of a risk of 180 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 2: a UCLA win hangover because it's been a week for USC, 181 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 2: that is still the last game they played, and perhaps 182 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 2: they're not quite as amped for Washington State as they 183 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 2: were for their crosstown rival there. All right, so quick recap, 184 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 2: although I guess I'll open it to you guys, any 185 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 2: other ones you are looking at that I did not 186 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 2: mention matt Workai. 187 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,319 Speaker 4: I got nothing, Jim, nothing, Matthew, no great filter. 188 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 2: Jim. 189 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 3: You scoured the earth and you brought back the best 190 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 3: diamonds for US US from so thank you for doing so. 191 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 2: You know, I do what I can. I'm glad that 192 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 2: the filtration process worked as expected. I am taking Maine, 193 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 2: Washington State, and Michigan. I'm going to continue splitting those 194 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 2: between spread and money line because I want to have 195 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,599 Speaker 2: a chance at the cover but also the upside of 196 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 2: the money line. 197 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 5: Kay, what about you, Towson and Michigan for me, two 198 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 5: six point dogs per ken Pun. 199 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 4: We'll see where the actual spreads lie. 200 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 3: I was center right stay for me. I just don't 201 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 3: trust Michigan at this point. I'm just probably sick of 202 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 3: that team, and I think the Right State is a 203 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 3: great dog to send into battle with my fade Youngstown angle. 204 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 2: So let's go right, Yes, that's out in the Penguins, 205 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 2: shocking jarring, sad to see him, scary, such disrespect to 206 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 2: the Penguins, the home Penguins in their home igloos to 207 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 2: tough team to beat. All right, let's move on to 208 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: the next section. That would be blowout city. This has 209 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 2: been a house of horrors for us. I will say 210 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 2: we're struggling to find the blowouts. But I think we 211 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 2: said every week be careful of these picks, like we're 212 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 2: not even endorsing them that strongly because it's hard to 213 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 2: find blowouts in league play. There's a lot of feisty dogs. 214 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 2: That said, guys, I love the first one here, Liberty 215 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 2: minus fourteen at Austin p on Thursday. These are two 216 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 2: teams just skyrocketing in different directions. Liberty is obliterating league 217 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 2: competition like shooting up advanced analytical rankings. They've won six 218 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 2: straight games by eleven or more. On the other hand, 219 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 2: kai Austin p has lost six straight games by eleven 220 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 2: or more. They are descending into the depths. I'm actually 221 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 2: surprised that this is only fourteen per ken Pond because 222 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: there's almost a three hundred rank gap between them in 223 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 2: ken Pom's actual rankings. There it's mostly tempo, it's gonna 224 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 2: be a slow game, so there's not as many possessions 225 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 2: for it to bear out. But I think with the 226 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 2: form there in Liberty just deconstructs this Austin PE team. 227 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, is conducive to blowouts, the fourth highest blowout percentage 228 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 5: in the country this season and the conference play. Twenty 229 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 5: percent of these games are over nineteen points side of 230 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 5: over nineteen points. That's because mostly because they have Liberty 231 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 5: in this conference, who is dominant best defense by a 232 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,719 Speaker 5: mile in this league. The difference between Liberty and the 233 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 5: second best team defensively, I can't even calculate it. It'd 234 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 5: be difference between like the first and one hundredth team 235 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 5: in the country. This season overall, and Austin P's office 236 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 5: has been terrible, dead last in this conference and they've 237 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 5: been hurt. They've been really, really hurt Sean Robinson, Stonecroll 238 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 5: both in and out of lineup. There's no consistency. I 239 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 5: agree with this pick here, Liberty blowing them out. 240 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been sort of I don't buy Liberty guy, 241 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,839 Speaker 3: Like Liberty is like this holy crap top forty fringe team. 242 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 3: But I am super in on the fade Austin P thing. 243 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 3: To me, it's like you can draw the line from 244 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 3: stone Caroalwell going out to their demise. They basically won 245 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,839 Speaker 3: two whatever games and then they've been disastrous ever since. 246 00:11:57,920 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 3: Right I got beaten back to back games because Lipscomb. 247 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 3: It's been a slow and a slow and very steady 248 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 3: demise sense, so I think they keep falling even farther. 249 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 3: There's just not a lot of talent here, especially with 250 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,559 Speaker 3: those injuries. I mean, even Paiez has been like, you know, 251 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 3: James is like not starting them and starting them. It 252 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 3: just seems like it's nothing's working. It's a throw your 253 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 3: hands up, this is all failure. 254 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, given where it's at fourteen, I bet with those injuries, 255 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 2: it's probably up closer to sixteen seventeen. I would live 256 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 2: up to eighteen here. I think the plane is just 257 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 2: evisceratum Matt, nice job muting there, not. 258 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 4: Good try missing me, but wow tough. 259 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 2: Yeah. No, this spread will be higher than fourteen. I'm 260 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 2: almost sure of it. And that's okay. I'm okay with that. 261 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: I'd leah higher than that. The other one I wanted 262 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 2: to bring up, not as giant of a spread, not 263 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: as like a great team versus bad team. But Arizona 264 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: State MAT has lost four straight games. That's rather shocking 265 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 2: for a team that was definitely in the nca tournament picture. 266 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 2: They've maybe fallen outside of the field at this point. 267 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 2: Now they're hosting Oregon State, who's won two of their 268 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 2: last three, maybe riding a little bit high. Do you 269 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 2: think this is a potential get right with home blowout 270 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 2: and make statement to committee type of game for the 271 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 2: Sun Devils. 272 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 3: Yes, and if they're smart I think you look at 273 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 3: that sixty six, next youre naming kem pom, you pull up, 274 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 3: you know, then what are they in the net right now? 275 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 3: I think they're looking at their analytic metrics at least 276 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:18,719 Speaker 3: they should and say crap. But now we're going to 277 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 3: be back to this malicious territory. We got a juice 278 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 3: shows all we you know, all we can. Oregon State 279 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 3: comes to town. You don't give me any opportunities to 280 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:27,959 Speaker 3: lay on, you know, to lay the wood pretty heavy. 281 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna let up here ky, at 282 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 3: least the shouldn't if they're smart. So yeah, I think 283 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 3: you get that motivational angle. Plus the spot got laying 284 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 3: doublegence with the Sun Devils doesn't give me a ton 285 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 3: of excitement with the form they're in, but I kind 286 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 3: of think they do smack organ State, which is basically 287 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 3: a JV team talent wise. 288 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, well that plus this is a five point game 289 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 5: in Corvallis. Plus Oregon Steak can really muck games up. 290 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 5: I don't feel confident in the double digits spread. No 291 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 5: organ State's lost by this many points four or five 292 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 5: times in league play. It's very possible for them to 293 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 5: get blown out, but I'm not sure it's gonna states 294 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 5: team to do it. I'll probably sit this one out. 295 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair. I think the angle and we're going 296 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 2: to discuss this angle a little bit. In the spotlight 297 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 2: section is looking at these bubble teams that need to 298 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 2: improve metrics and how much that filters through into their performances. Again, 299 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 2: we'll discuss that again at the end of the pod. 300 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 2: Stick around for more talk on that. All right, let's 301 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 2: move on to our next section, But before we do, 302 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 2: college basketball season is in full swing, so get in 303 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: on the action with the King of Sportsbooks. Sign up 304 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 2: with BETMGM using bonus code action and receive first bet 305 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 2: insurance up to one thousand dollars. Visit betmgm dot com 306 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 2: for terms and conditions. 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In New York, call or 323 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 2: text the Tennessee Redline at eight hundred and eight eight 324 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 2: nine nine seven eight nine are called one eight eight 325 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 2: eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. 326 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 2: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your 327 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 2: gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario 328 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 2: at one eight six six five three one twenty six 329 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 2: hundred to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports 330 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 2: betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah and other 331 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 2: states where prohibited promotional offers not available in Nevada and 332 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 2: New York. All right, we're talking power game of the 333 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 2: week now, guys, Oh, I could feel it's time to 334 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 2: hit the big ones. The big khun is of Wednesday 335 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 2: and Thursday, and it's pretty much all Wednesday, guys. Mid 336 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 2: Major has a little bit more going on on Thursday, 337 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 2: but we're starting with Wednesday. Providence at Xavier initial spread here, 338 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 2: Xavier land four at home, a huge one. These teams 339 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 2: are among the three way tie a top to Big East, 340 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 2: along with Marquette and Kind. None of those four teams 341 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 2: have won on the road at one of the other four, 342 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 2: so like the top teams in the Big East have 343 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 2: all held serve at home. That would certainly lead you 344 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 2: towards a potential Xavier bet here. I know it's four 345 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 2: points Providence hangs around. How do you feel about this game? 346 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 5: I'm leaving Xavier here, Jim for my money. The way 347 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 5: better team than Providence and no disrespect to the Friars. 348 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 5: I don't I frankly don't know how they're this good 349 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 5: credit at Cooley. I suppose credit. I guess a unique 350 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 5: combination of players, plus Bryce Hopkins really developing into an 351 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 5: All Conference player. But I just think Xavier top to bottom, 352 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 5: has more talent. I think they have way more offensive juice, 353 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 5: and I think they're a little bit better coach. Know, 354 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 5: if it's to the coolie again, I think Sean Millers 355 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 5: don a great job with Xavior And if it's four points, 356 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 5: I think it's a little short. 357 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 4: I think they can get the job done here. 358 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 3: Matt, I'm with if your four seams way too short 359 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 3: via kemp Pom, We'll see what it actually opens up. 360 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 3: I would wager five, maybe even six, hopefully not because 361 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 3: I'm looking to back the. 362 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 4: X here as well. I yeah, this could be Cooley's 363 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 4: best team ever. 364 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 3: Like that's on the heels of last season, which was 365 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 3: mostly you know, the analytic numbers clearly depicted that as 366 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,239 Speaker 3: more of a mirage, although they was a very impressive year. 367 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 3: They've had really good teams in the past, and this 368 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 3: might be his best team. And I don't know kind 369 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:32,400 Speaker 3: with you, I think it's just an awesome coolly coaching job. 370 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 3: I don't fully buy the talents like next level elite, 371 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 3: even though Hopkins has been kind of a difference maker. 372 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 3: I think x is just a more complete, well rounded team. Jim, 373 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 3: I worried about their defense. Sometimes they do the old Matador, 374 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 3: you know, go right by us type of thing, and 375 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 3: then the Zach Fremantle angle. 376 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 4: I know he's dicey as well, so I don't. 377 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,120 Speaker 3: I still like x but there are some some some 378 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 3: concerns that can that worry me. 379 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, I make this probably around five. So if you 380 00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 2: give me Matt, you're talking six, maybe north of that 381 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 2: at six and a half. Like Cooley as an underdog 382 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 2: is fantastic ro dog. He's like a sixty percent shot 383 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,640 Speaker 2: through his whole career at Providence. So if you give 384 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 2: me more points to possessions, I'll probably lean towards Cooley. 385 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 2: But I do think Xavier wins. Like if you want 386 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 2: to if you're thinking like money line type stuff, you 387 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,919 Speaker 2: want a team that feels safe ish, it would be Xavier. 388 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 2: Just from a pure numerical value sense. As this ticks up, 389 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 2: I want to take a look at Cooley all right. 390 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 2: Tennessee at Florida. Next game, Tennessee minus eight per mister 391 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 2: Pomeroy at the Gators Florida in one of the hardest 392 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,360 Speaker 2: schedule stretches you will find. They just played at Kansas State, 393 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 2: now at Tennessee, then they got Alabama and at Kentucky 394 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 2: coming out like just as ridiculous as you can find. 395 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 2: Get like two to three one seeds in there. Kansas 396 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 2: State up in that two seat competition as well. Kentucky's 397 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 2: surging at this stage. Not an easy place to play. 398 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,239 Speaker 2: All that said that, where do we land on this one? 399 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 2: Tennessee just looked invincible against Texas. Florida got boat raced 400 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 2: by camp of State. They have struggled against higher level 401 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 2: competition dating back to the Yukon game. Getting back to 402 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,239 Speaker 2: their trip to Portland. Are they able to stand up 403 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 2: here against the balls and what feels like a monster 404 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 2: game for Todd Gold in his first season. 405 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 3: I think this game stays within like the high teens. 406 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 3: I just think it's gonna be tough to really bury 407 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 3: Florida because they play They're playing a little bit I think, 408 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 3: and more conservative. I know their last two games did 409 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 3: play the seven three possessions, surprising, but you know the 410 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 3: last one has case State was what one hundred and 411 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 3: fourteen on the total. I think Florida has really leaned 412 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,640 Speaker 3: into there. We're going to play low games, right, low 413 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 3: scoring games, defense, you know, that's how that's our path 414 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,439 Speaker 3: to victory. I think that type of blueprint keeps this 415 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 3: game within the cover range because it's gonna be such 416 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 3: a big spread given how good Tennessee's been kai even 417 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 3: as the Florida guy here on this podcast, I'm not 418 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 3: going to back the Gators. I do think this is 419 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 3: probably one that stays around the number of the whole time. 420 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 3: It's hard for me to back Tennessee on the road 421 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 3: in this spot against Florida, but hard for me to 422 00:19:58,320 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 3: trust Floor his offense. 423 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 4: So the under the right play. 424 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,199 Speaker 5: Yeah, my number will probably in towards Florida, and I 425 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 5: will ignore it because I don't think this Gators team 426 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 5: can compete with Tennessee. 427 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 4: They're not going to score. 428 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 5: Tennessee's defense is way too good. Florida's offense is not good. 429 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 5: They cannot shoot. It's a big deal against Tennessee, and 430 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 5: Castleton's not going to get anything. Plaves is a big 431 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,959 Speaker 5: dude himself. But also Tennessee's other front court pieces are 432 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 5: big and strong, and their middle defense is really, really, 433 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 5: really good. I don't see how Florida keeps this close. 434 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 5: I'm probably taking Tennessee or nothing here, Jim. 435 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked about crock pottings a little before. With 436 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,719 Speaker 2: the way Virginia plays slow and just methodically pulls you apart, 437 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 2: there's a chance Tennessee gets up eighteen to two and 438 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 2: it's more than a crock potting. But I think worst 439 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 2: case for the Valls, they give up fifty points to 440 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 2: Florida and find their way to sixty five against a 441 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 2: really good Gators defense. But that offense is abysmal and 442 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,400 Speaker 2: it's just only getting worse. And Tennessee just you don't 443 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 2: hit permeanter shots against them. It can't shoot. It's going 444 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 2: to be a struggle for the Gators. Unfortunately, it'd probably 445 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 2: be Tennessee or nothing for me. And that one Gators 446 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 2: aren't getting any closer to the bubble breaking news. By 447 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 2: the way, as we are on the pod here, Matt, 448 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 2: you mentioned Fremantle being dicey. He is out at least 449 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:20,680 Speaker 2: a month reported confirmed, So Xavier going to be short handed, 450 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 2: get it, Zach Fremantle broken hand, So Fremantle out for 451 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 2: quite a while. That affects that Xavier handicap certainly doubt 452 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 2: it's up around five or six at this stage. Without 453 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 2: him not as deep in the front court, got to 454 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 2: play a little bit smaller, a lot of minutes for 455 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 2: Jack Nungee Ed Cooley on the road. Road Dog is 456 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 2: starting to be at least slightly more appealing there, all right. 457 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,439 Speaker 2: Last one to talk about in power Game of the 458 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 2: Week here Bedlum. It's a big one Bedlam on Wednesday. 459 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:52,199 Speaker 2: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. Sooner's three point home favorite, per 460 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 2: mister Pomeroy. A lot of wild games between these two 461 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 2: in the past. This is a massive game for bubble purposes. 462 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 2: Both of them are probably the next four out territory. 463 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 2: They're not right on the cut line, but they're close. 464 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 2: Oklahoma just picked up a monster win against Alabama, has 465 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 2: them actually a lot closer to the field chance they're 466 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,199 Speaker 2: even in right now. Both these teams could really use 467 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 2: a victory here, Kai, How do you see this one 468 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 2: shaping up in Oklahoma? 469 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 5: Game one was a disaster for the Sinners. They lost 470 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 5: by sixteen. It was a really poor shooting display four 471 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 5: for fifteen from deep. I tend to think that reverses 472 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 5: in this one. Oklahoma States defense is legit it's that good. 473 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 5: But owe you at home. They're just as good as 474 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 5: the Oklahoma State team csay, not all the way back 475 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 5: quite yet for Okay State. He might come off the bench, 476 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,400 Speaker 5: but certainly on a minute'scount, I lean towards ou here 477 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 5: in such a heated rivalry, especially with the one loss 478 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 5: already on the resume. Matt against this Cowboys team. 479 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, then you confidently in his first matchup fell forget 480 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 3: about it just starting, and that quickly erode in neither 481 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 3: team I can get a read on. I think two 482 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,199 Speaker 3: of my least profitable teams betting on or against all season. 483 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 4: I want to back in Oklahoma again, just not super 484 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 4: excited to do so. 485 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 3: Jim, when you just beat Alabama by freaking twenty five 486 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 3: or whatever, I do think that's not great. And that 487 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 3: was also as many people on Twitter pointing out a 488 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 3: pretty awesome matchup advantage for Oklahoma with how with how 489 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 3: Alabama defends, and how i OUs kind of inverted forwards 490 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 3: and mobile versatile forwards can exploit how they defend. So maybe, oh, 491 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 3: you reminds us all that they're just a well coached 492 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 3: but ultimately not that talented team. And I think the 493 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:30,400 Speaker 3: Pokes might actually sleep them here. 494 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, the talent is centered in a couple places like 495 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 2: Grant Sherfield went bananas against against Alabama. That's one of 496 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 2: their most talented guys. If he's on like that, they're 497 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 2: really tough to stop. Oklahoma State is eight and three 498 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 2: against the spread at home, not nearly as effective on 499 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 2: the road, so maybe you get them in more of 500 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 2: a downspot here. I actually perceived Oklahoma as a lot 501 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,959 Speaker 2: better at home too, but they're only four six and 502 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 2: one against the number at home. Some early season struggles 503 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 2: against Sam Houston and Pine Blow in South Alabama really 504 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 2: bringing those numbers down. But in league play against higher competition, 505 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 2: they've been solid at home, so I kind of lean 506 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 2: towards the Sooners in that home spot revenge bounce back. 507 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 2: It feels like these two teams are even enough that 508 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,439 Speaker 2: they'll split, but that's not altogether a reason until late three, 509 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 2: so hard to get involved in that one. So nothing 510 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 2: on Thursday for Power Game of the Week, which means 511 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 2: we're going to move right on into Mid Major Game 512 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,919 Speaker 2: of the Week. The big one is on Thursday, but 513 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 2: we're going to start Wednesday. That is New Mexico at 514 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 2: Utah State. Huge one in the Mountain West. Here, KII 515 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 2: are bracketology nerds. We know how much Utah State needs 516 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 2: this for their attorney resume. They've got good metric type ratings, 517 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 2: but they have no Q one wins and two Q 518 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 2: four losses. It's almost impossible to get into the field 519 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 2: with that combination. Meanwhile, New Mexico sits and sitting a 520 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 2: lot prettier, probably like the eight nine territory. Very athletic 521 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,439 Speaker 2: team could give Usta State problems that way. How do 522 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,120 Speaker 2: you perceive this game plan out? Yeah? 523 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 5: I love this New Mexico team. They're fantastic, they're electric. 524 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 5: Love their guard play. Having said that, Utah State very 525 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 5: very tough place to play, the Spectrum Center, that home 526 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 5: court really is something to reckon with. I think that 527 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 5: might be the difference here in this game. Spread around 528 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 5: three is probably gonna be right. I'm probably gonna stay 529 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 5: off it, but I would lean towards the home team here. 530 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:27,680 Speaker 5: Just some special magic theory in that venue. Matthew, Yeah, 531 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,479 Speaker 5: kind of a minor note. I think Donovan Dent is 532 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 5: out for this game. I know his numbers aren't eye popping. 533 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:33,919 Speaker 5: I watched him play like. This guy is awesome he's. 534 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,159 Speaker 3: Like the ultimate for this leveo so athletic, he's the 535 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,480 Speaker 3: He's just he's the cheat code you in a bucket, 536 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 3: lay go get us one. Like he's almost like more 537 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 3: effective than Howis and Mashburn and doing that, but just 538 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 3: something to do. I think he does kind of matter 539 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 3: in that regard, But nothing. 540 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 2: From me here has struggled. 541 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 4: I'll take mash for in the house over Dent, thanks. 542 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 3: Enough. 543 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,760 Speaker 2: He's going to be awesome next year and the year 544 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 2: following Dent. He's right now. He's kind of like the 545 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 2: erratic freshman off the bench guard. But Utah State against 546 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,359 Speaker 2: San Diego State, Boise, Nevada, I think they've struggled with 547 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 2: the length in athleticism of those teams, and New Mexico 548 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 2: brings that a little bit, particularly at the three through 549 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:17,439 Speaker 2: five spots. Utah State beautiful offense, but it's tough for 550 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 2: them to manufacture great shots against those high level athleticism teams. 551 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,440 Speaker 2: But it's tough home court. So I am, once again torn, 552 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 2: can't give a super strong recommendation on that one. All right, guys, 553 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,879 Speaker 2: let's talk Thursday. I have a very strong take in 554 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 2: this one. Hopefully you'll agree. Forward Atlantic minus one at UAB. Mathematically, 555 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 2: this is the toughest test left on FAU schedule, the 556 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 2: only game at fifty percent or below of win probability. Now, 557 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 2: UAB is a hard team to crack right now. Jelly 558 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 2: Walker has not been playing. Apparently it's a pain tolerance thing, 559 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 2: so at any point he could be out there and 560 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 2: good to go. He's been cleared by doctors and kay. 561 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 2: The Blazers looked a lot better over the weekend after 562 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 2: suspending Tiberer and Jvian Davis. It seemed like they kind 563 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 2: of circle the Wagtiggins and I had a lot more 564 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 2: going for them there. Now they take on FAU. If 565 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 2: you also has to go to Charlotte on Saturday, what 566 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:08,120 Speaker 2: are you looking at with this game? 567 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,719 Speaker 5: I love this FAU squad by far the best men 568 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 5: major in the country. 569 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 4: They're awesome. 570 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 5: Had pleasure of watching them on TV the other day. 571 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 5: This UAB team, if Jilly Walker is in, I actually 572 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 5: leaned their way. They should have won this first matchup. 573 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,120 Speaker 5: They were up late, up six points late under four 574 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 5: to play at FAU. Very impressive effort. I do think 575 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 5: the Davis and Brewer subtractions are an indeed addition, probably 576 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 5: some chemistry issues folded into there. But Matt, if Jelly 577 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 5: is out again, I cannot take U a B. In fact, 578 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 5: probably an FAU if that was the case. 579 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 3: I'm teking f FA Regardi shim all the way on 580 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 3: my ass. This is like the you get this win 581 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 3: and you feel really good about your atlart Like not 582 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 3: like it's a lock, but man, this is you're kind 583 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,679 Speaker 3: of the last big hurrah for It reminds me of 584 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,400 Speaker 3: the San Francisco who do they play last year when 585 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 3: they got their big when late in the year that 586 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 3: kind of felt like it's slif. I think it was 587 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 3: the WCC tournament, but it feels like this is the 588 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 3: big milestone win for a program that's never been in 589 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 3: the tournament, that's been never been this good. 590 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 4: They need this one, so I think they get it. 591 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,240 Speaker 2: I do. Yeah, I'm all in with them too, Matt. 592 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,880 Speaker 2: That was my angle on this. I just think they're 593 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 2: better and UAB, while they did look sharper without Davis 594 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 2: and Brewer, I think that's part of what would make 595 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 2: them a tough matchup is the Langthon athleticism and Davis's 596 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 2: physicality and the paint FAU rocks, Like if you haven't 597 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 2: watched them. If you're listening to this pod. They are 598 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 2: seven guards and wings that can create their own shot, 599 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,280 Speaker 2: plus two dominant centers that they rotate, and so they've 600 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 2: got four shooters on the floor at all times, four 601 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 2: guys that can run a pick and roll at all times, 602 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 2: and they always have one guy that can score with 603 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 2: his back to his basket, can protect the rim. It's 604 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 2: just such a fun blend of players that go nine 605 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 2: deep with that and everybody's dangerous. Yeah, I just I 606 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: think FAUS has kind of figured things out and they 607 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 2: get up for their biggest games. Kaid of the result 608 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 2: at home is a little, a little concerning. I think 609 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 2: the fact that u AB kind of almost had them 610 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 2: beat at FAU is alarming. But I'm still riding with them, 611 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 2: ryding with the Owls, I would. 612 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 3: I mean, they did go to the tournament twenty two 613 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 3: thousand and two. I've forgot about that since was their 614 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 3: second tournament's appearance. 615 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 4: That's what I was going to say. 616 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 5: Also, maybe is desperate for this game. They need this too, 617 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 5: so I don't know, this is their biggest game of 618 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 5: the season remaining, So there's there's angles on both sides here. 619 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 2: All right from the top of the mid major world 620 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 2: to the very bottom. And the trash man pick of. 621 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 4: The week, the trash man pick of the week. I'm 622 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 4: the trash man. Just throw me the trash, your garbage, 623 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 4: and you know it. Totally unreliable, undependable in it. That's it. 624 00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:44,240 Speaker 4: You've been told off. 625 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 3: How do you like that? 626 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 4: Good? 627 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 2: It's LU at Merrimac. Merrimack is an eleven point favorite. 628 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 2: They are taking on the worst team in the country 629 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,959 Speaker 2: for Ken Palm three hundred and sixty third, very very bottom, 630 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 2: definitely a bottom three team anyway you slice it. This 631 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,400 Speaker 2: LU squad is bleak, front court is bad, turned over 632 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 2: their roster right before the season because of a late 633 00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 2: questionable coaching change. And then Matt on the other side 634 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 2: of Merrimack, who had a streak of sixteen straight games 635 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 2: that went under the total. So you have that against 636 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,719 Speaker 2: one of the worst teams. How do you get excited 637 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 2: about this game? 638 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 4: Well, you don't, Jim. 639 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 3: Part of me is I like not following a few 640 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 3: teams or like conferences like these low majors, and you 641 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 3: look at spreads after kind of feeling ignorant. 642 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 4: I almost think it's actually works in your favor. Here 643 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 4: like a LU. 644 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 3: I know they're terrible, but like plus eleven, like Merrimack's 645 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 3: been awful too, Like, why are we not taking plus 646 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 3: eleven here? 647 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 4: No? Stupid? 648 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 2: Good luck? 649 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 5: Hi, okay, good luck. I'll need it for sure. I 650 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 5: don't think it's necessarily stupid, but it's worth noting. LU 651 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 5: is one of the worst DATS teams in the country. 652 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 5: Like their spreads are huge every game, They're still five 653 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:53,479 Speaker 5: and thirteen against the spread. 654 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 4: It's pretty dire now. 655 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 5: Merrimack plays so slow that it might just be impossible 656 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 5: for the blue team out. They've beaten two teams this 657 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 5: year by twelve and that's it. That's the highest margin 658 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 5: of victory for them this year is twelve points, So 659 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 5: that's about what the spread is at. I bet it 660 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 5: might be even higher than eleven. Now gett zone. You 661 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 5: look at LU stats pretty good, really small sample size, 662 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:19,720 Speaker 5: but currently ninetieth percentile on points per possession. I doubt 663 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 5: that stays the course against Merrimack. Their zone is a 664 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 5: bit different. They definitely forced turnovers and LU is literally 665 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 5: the worst offensive and defensive team in the NEEC Right now, 666 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 5: I wouldn't take LU against anybody. 667 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where I Land. I think you can make 668 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 2: a lot of cases for LAU in the sense that 669 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,480 Speaker 2: Merrimack is one of the worst offenses in the country 670 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 2: and you're gonna lay double digits with them. They're one 671 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 2: of the worst rebounding teams both ways in the country, 672 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 2: and you're gonna lay double digits with them. They've scored 673 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 2: seventy points twice this season, both were in losses. They 674 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 2: have not scored seventy to win. They only scored by 675 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 2: strangling you or the only win by strangling you. Does 676 00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 2: that really play up for an eleven point favorite. I 677 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 2: don't know, But Matt, I just I can't do it. 678 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: I can't do it with lu I can't get on 679 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:04,360 Speaker 2: board with those Sharks. 680 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,120 Speaker 3: Only do you want to win? Was without their presumed 681 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 3: best player this year? So that all makes sense? 682 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,959 Speaker 4: Right? Yeah? Marco is a Maltics. How his name? 683 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, Malatics sharpshooter. 684 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, nothing makes sense, Nothing makes sense. 685 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 2: It's bleak. They've got a long rebuild ahead of them 686 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 2: or quick work in the portal this offseason. We'll see 687 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,240 Speaker 2: what mister Strickland can do. All right, Let's get to 688 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 2: our last section here. It is the spotlight on bubble battles. 689 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 2: I kind of alluded to this earlier, said we talked 690 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 2: about it. We discussed some bubble teams, the Oklahoma schools, 691 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 2: Utah State, Florida, Arizona State, and it just before we 692 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,840 Speaker 2: talk a couple more matchups. General question, Kai, do you 693 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 2: do you factor this in the idea that these teams 694 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,880 Speaker 2: are desperate, they need to increase their own metrics and 695 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 2: it's a little bit more important to them than a 696 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 2: team that's fighting for a one or two seed or 697 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 2: a team that's completely out of the tournament. As we 698 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 2: go down this here, is this something you're at least 699 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 2: going to have in the back of your mind when 700 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 2: you're handicapping. 701 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 5: Maybe it's a really good talking point for gambling shows, Jim. 702 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,880 Speaker 5: So it's something we'll probably bring up multiple times on 703 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 5: our own show. In reality, I don't know if it 704 00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 5: actually makes a difference. It's really hard to do a 705 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 5: data project on this and see if teams in these 706 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 5: situations actually play better. Theoretically they should And frankly though, Matt, 707 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 5: I think it's all talk. It's you guys, we really 708 00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 5: need this one. Well, okay, you're not gonna make your 709 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 5: team play better just by saying that, and hey, the 710 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,720 Speaker 5: other team doesn't want to lose either. They're college kids. 711 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 5: They want to win this game. That's right, kids, I said, kids, Matthew, Uh, 712 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 5: you know, I might consider Jim. I'm leaning towards that 713 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 5: team anyways, maybe just the deciding fact that push me 714 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 5: over the edge, but certainly not going to take a 715 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 5: team just solely based on that. 716 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll cherry pick it. I'll move the goal post. 717 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,120 Speaker 3: I'll tell you why it matters for teams I like, 718 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 3: and why it doesn't for teams I don't. So that's 719 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 3: put everyone out there here. He talks publicly about this stuff. 720 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 4: We'll do too. 721 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,520 Speaker 3: So just now that's I don't think there's any real 722 00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 3: true data that discerns this as a legit angle, but 723 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 3: it's always case by case and that you think it's 724 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 3: something worth being aware of for sure. 725 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 2: Here's my anecdotal sense of it. I think it matters 726 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,760 Speaker 2: more in games like the Arizona State one, where winning 727 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 2: by more is important than it does in games where 728 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:17,279 Speaker 2: it's a coin flip who's going to win, Like, I 729 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 2: don't think it adds to your motivation to win, But 730 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,319 Speaker 2: if you're late in a game where we're only we're 731 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 2: up seven and we could just you know, go to sleep, 732 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:28,000 Speaker 2: pull our starters for the last thirty seconds or in 733 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:29,879 Speaker 2: the final two minutes, we're up six and we want 734 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 2: to win by twelve. Like, I think there is something 735 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 2: to that extending the lead a little bit, because on 736 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,680 Speaker 2: the other side, if the game's already decided, the other 737 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 2: team's probably not going to be motivated to keep it 738 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,239 Speaker 2: to a six point deficit versus twelve. So if you 739 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,279 Speaker 2: do have something like that where it's a good team 740 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:48,839 Speaker 2: versus a lesser team that could potentially blow them out, 741 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 2: then I then I'll factor it in. But if it's 742 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,320 Speaker 2: a coin flip game, both teams are going to be 743 00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,359 Speaker 2: trying just as hard. No real edge in that. All Right, 744 00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 2: A couple that I want to just discuss here, big 745 00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 2: bubble game games on Wednesday and Thursday. We won't get 746 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 2: into the weekend. We'll leave that to Stuckey and Co. 747 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,440 Speaker 2: But Seaton Hall at Saint John's on Wednesday, both teams 748 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 2: definitely on the fringes of the at large discussion, not 749 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,960 Speaker 2: super in the mix right now, but they could get there. 750 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 2: I've got time and opportunities in the Big East KaiA. 751 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 2: Just in general, we won't even break down the matchup. 752 00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,400 Speaker 2: Which one of these do you prefer long term? The 753 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:22,800 Speaker 2: Pirates or the Red Storm. 754 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:27,680 Speaker 5: The Pirates, for sure, I believe in Holloway a little 755 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 5: bit more than Mike Anderson. I think the defense is 756 00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:33,320 Speaker 5: for real, and I do like the talent on the offensive, 757 00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 5: and especially if Alexis yetna ever comes back. Who knows 758 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 5: if he's ever going to played this season, But I 759 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 5: buy a hall more long term pash. Alexander's been out 760 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,239 Speaker 5: last couple of games for Saint John's and almost blew 761 00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 5: a game at Georgetown recently. 762 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:47,560 Speaker 4: Just not a team I trust this season. 763 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where I land Matt your question. Pitt at UNC, 764 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 2: they're getting seven per KEMPOM, Penn State at number one 765 00:35:55,560 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 2: perdue getting ten pits right there to be in Penn State, 766 00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,480 Speaker 2: Maybe you know one or two spots outside of the field. 767 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 2: Given some of the projections I've seen, which one of 768 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 2: these two road teams from the state of Pennsylvania is 769 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,800 Speaker 2: more likely to get a big win Pitt at UNC 770 00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 2: or Penn State at Purdue. 771 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:14,960 Speaker 4: I think Pitt. 772 00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 3: I think Jeff Cable goes back to his former duke 773 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 3: days as a player, puts on you know, puts his 774 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,760 Speaker 3: mind in that old you know, blue blood tobacco road rivalry. 775 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,319 Speaker 4: He gets his pit boys. I think they play well. 776 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:26,280 Speaker 4: The guards are awesome. 777 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 3: You could argue that with the erratic nature of UNC's backcourt, 778 00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 3: the better backcourt might be on Pitt's side just for 779 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 3: this one game. Certainly a good angle if you're looking 780 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 3: to find a dog here and in Penn State. You're right, Jimmy, 781 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 3: talk with this in the notes here. The matchup just 782 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 3: to two against them. They can spread you out and 783 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,879 Speaker 3: shoot it, but they've proven they can't stop the legiti 784 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:48,839 Speaker 3: big guys up proNT of those conference right, Penn State 785 00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,480 Speaker 3: until Shrewsbury find some resistance at the end. They're going 786 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,080 Speaker 3: to struggle against the Dickinsons and the tj ds and 787 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 3: the Eeds, et cetera. 788 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,680 Speaker 2: On this Sleep Yeah, I'm with you. I think it's 789 00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,960 Speaker 2: definitely Pitt. And the spread is lower for a reason, 790 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,440 Speaker 2: so it's indicating it's more likely. But Pitt's already won 791 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,000 Speaker 2: at Northwestern NC State and Syracuse like those are solid 792 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,239 Speaker 2: road winds, you know, Georgia Tech, Louisville, whatever, throw those out, 793 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,800 Speaker 2: but especially Northwestern NC State, those are tournament caliber teams, 794 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,160 Speaker 2: and Pitt's already won on the road at those places. 795 00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,799 Speaker 2: And meanwhile, Penn State has already played Perdue and they 796 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:22,359 Speaker 2: just really struggled with you have to send doubles to Edie. 797 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 2: I mean, every team has to, but Penn State is 798 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,120 Speaker 2: particularly small, and they weren't really able to take as 799 00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,319 Speaker 2: much advantage on the offensive end, spreading out. Barely got 800 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 2: over one point per possession against the boiler Makers. Not 801 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 2: a home game, not a true home game. That was 802 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,399 Speaker 2: at the Polestra, But now it's a true road game 803 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 2: at Mackie. I fear for what happens in the paint 804 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,600 Speaker 2: in that game. That's probably a blowout. All right, one 805 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,839 Speaker 2: more or two more? I guess to mention here on Thursday, Kay, 806 00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,560 Speaker 2: this one is actually a really big bubble battle. Both 807 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,520 Speaker 2: teams are in the mix and need it. Wisconsin at 808 00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:55,960 Speaker 2: Ohio State now is the seven point spread because of 809 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,080 Speaker 2: where these two land analytically, Ohio State way up there 810 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 2: in those projections, but the profiles are going in the 811 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 2: wrong direction for tournament likelihood. Who do you like here, 812 00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,120 Speaker 2: whether it's against the spread or just going forward for 813 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 2: a potential bid. 814 00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,120 Speaker 5: Going forward to Ohio State for sure, I've given up 815 00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:17,200 Speaker 5: on the Badgers here the spot of all spots against 816 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:21,000 Speaker 5: Illinois last game at home Cole Center should have been 817 00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,120 Speaker 5: a win, and they just peed down their legs. The 818 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 5: offense is a real issue. They cannot score. It's even 819 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,480 Speaker 5: with Wall on the floor. They struggle terrible on offense. 820 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:33,680 Speaker 5: It's a big problem. And Ohio State has legit, legit 821 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:35,839 Speaker 5: players on this team. I still think they can make 822 00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:39,399 Speaker 5: the tournament. Now seven points is a lot, but I'm 823 00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,400 Speaker 5: kind of done betting on Wisconsin until future. 824 00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,399 Speaker 4: Notice I told you was constant stinks. 825 00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 2: Guys. 826 00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,400 Speaker 4: I'm glad you finally came around to it. The issue 827 00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,239 Speaker 4: here is that I think they can. 828 00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 3: Compete with Ohio State with the Walhio states playing until 829 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,399 Speaker 3: Ohio State figures how what. 830 00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:52,000 Speaker 4: Their identity is. 831 00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 3: And again I we talked about how they kind of 832 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 3: lost it. So what I foresee here is a spot 833 00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:02,080 Speaker 3: where Wisconsin maybe competes with, if not shocks Ohio State 834 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,239 Speaker 3: on the road, and then they come back home and 835 00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,640 Speaker 3: I'm actually gonna bet the Purple kids kai On Sunday 836 00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,000 Speaker 3: Northwestern at Wisconsin. 837 00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,600 Speaker 5: I was gonna remind you of Wisconsin's non con Matt 838 00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:14,319 Speaker 5: lost by one to Kansas in overtime, beat usc beat 839 00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 5: Marquette away in overtime, beat Iowa away in overtime. 840 00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:19,600 Speaker 4: Wisconsin used to be good. 841 00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,719 Speaker 3: There was reason years ago. Years ago, Iowa was an asterisk. 842 00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,040 Speaker 3: Marquette was a great spot, great fine. 843 00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:27,640 Speaker 4: I don't know. 844 00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,879 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, Kansas was at the ballroom with the it's 845 00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:32,280 Speaker 3: the stupid Bahama saw to tourrments. 846 00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,920 Speaker 4: Now Wisconsin again. You can't ca have you at Marquette. 847 00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,160 Speaker 4: That's one of the best ones of the year. 848 00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:41,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, great Marquette rivalry. I guess maybe spot. Yeah, I 849 00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:42,120 Speaker 2: mean Wisconsin was. 850 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:42,560 Speaker 4: A great spot. 851 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,359 Speaker 3: We broke it down in this program was an excellent spot. 852 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:50,880 Speaker 3: It was an all time spots. 853 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,480 Speaker 2: Seven of eight. Behave children. I'm slapping you both on 854 00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,360 Speaker 2: the wrist. I'm tony Reality and time outing you mute 855 00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,120 Speaker 2: negative one point for both of the shows growing up. Yeah, 856 00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:00,480 Speaker 2: there you go. Yeah, both these teams are playing very, 857 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,560 Speaker 2: very poorly right now, and maybe you make a case 858 00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:05,239 Speaker 2: for one of them rallying, but I think it'll be 859 00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,319 Speaker 2: more whoever wins is just less bad right now. So, 860 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,839 Speaker 2: as Matt said, maybe you look to fade either one 861 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:15,040 Speaker 2: of them in the following game. Oregon is nine point 862 00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,879 Speaker 2: Dog at Arizona. They're not quite dead, but man, they've 863 00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,200 Speaker 2: got two Q three losses, poor metrics. They just need 864 00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:23,520 Speaker 2: to stack up wins. Last point to make here. As 865 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,120 Speaker 2: I said initially, I think some of the where a 866 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,520 Speaker 2: bubble team we need to improve. Metrics can matter when 867 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,000 Speaker 2: you are better, clearly better than the other team and 868 00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,000 Speaker 2: you can increase the margin. That would apply to Utah 869 00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:39,080 Speaker 2: hosting Stanford, the Zoo hosting LSU, and even Creighton, as 870 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,759 Speaker 2: great as they are analytically, pretty far down there in 871 00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:44,239 Speaker 2: the bubble picture because of the losses they took early 872 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,000 Speaker 2: in the year. They're at Georgetown, they have every incentive 873 00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,960 Speaker 2: to win that game by thirty. So Keevian eye on 874 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,360 Speaker 2: those some of those bigger spreads for favorites that potentially 875 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,960 Speaker 2: could improve their standing with big, big wins. That wraps 876 00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,919 Speaker 2: it up for us today, Fellas. That's it on our 877 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,680 Speaker 2: episode of Big Bets on Campus. Thank you to BETMGM. 878 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:08,000 Speaker 2: We're sponsoring the episode. You'll catch Stucky and Friends on 879 00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:12,319 Speaker 2: Friday going through their typical episode, but for now we 880 00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:24,000 Speaker 2: appreciate you tuning in and we'll see you next Wednesday. 881 00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:31,600 Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 882 00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,440 Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 883 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,600 Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler