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Speaker 1: Could you imagine talking about conference realignces backed up in

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Speaker 1: the little culture fall seas. It couldn't be us. Man.

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Speaker 1: We're jam packed high a top a rainy downtown Nashville, Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: on this Tuesday night, September twenty fourth, the Year of

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Speaker 1: Our Lord, twenty twenty four. We are proudly brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Academy Sports and Outdoors. And I have in

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Speaker 1: my hand right here actually the full Georgia versus Alabama preview.

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Speaker 1: We're going predictions tonight. It's Tuesday night. That's what we

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Speaker 1: do around here. I've got several more aside from that,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, this is one of the games of

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Speaker 1: the year. It's two of our biggest viewer bases. So

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Speaker 1: we're going really really deep no immunity on this game tonight.

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Speaker 1: I've got a brand new JP pole, we got some movement.

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Speaker 1: We got some teams that lost that didn't really drop

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Speaker 1: all that much, and we've got a team that won

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Speaker 1: that did drop like seven spots, so I'm sure that'll

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Speaker 1: go over well. I've got some big surprises and big disappointments,

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Speaker 1: because as it turns out, I talked about some of

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Speaker 1: them last week, but I did not get to all

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Speaker 1: of them, and to be honest with you, since then,

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Speaker 1: some teams have disappointed me even more so. We are

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Speaker 1: jam packed as we could possibly be. I mean to

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Speaker 1: the point where they may take us off the air

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Speaker 1: for overt jam pactedness. But in the meantime, they're watching

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Speaker 1: us in Frederick, Maryland, French Camp, Mississippi, Madison, Alabama, Tulsa, Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: home of Quick Trip. Just make sure that you're following

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Speaker 1: me on Instagram at Lake Kick Josh, And I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: tell you why number one, because that's where Friday Night

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Speaker 1: Lions airs. Number two. That's where I'll get you all

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Speaker 1: behind the scenes content on Saturday number three. There is

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Speaker 1: a rumor, and at this point it's just a rumor

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Speaker 1: floating around Tuscaloosa, that we're gonna be there Friday and Saturday,

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Speaker 1: which we will. That's not a rumor I can Jesse Colin,

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Speaker 1: I can confirm that. But there is a part two

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Speaker 1: and that's just rumor at this point that I may

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Speaker 1: be doing something down there Friday. Not a show, mind you,

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Speaker 1: although there will be crowd. That's as specific as I

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Speaker 1: can get. Stay tuned on Thursday. I may have you

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Speaker 1: more details on that, but we've done something special our

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Speaker 1: last two tour stops and the whole New Saturday Tour

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Speaker 1: will be down there, as will everybody else this weekend,

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Speaker 1: and so just be following at late kick Josh. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's dive into the show tonight. Happy you're here live.

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Speaker 1: Audience is growing by the second. Just make sure you're subscribed,

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Speaker 1: and let's do this thing. Okay. Georgia versus Alabama, Saturday Night,

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Speaker 1: Bryanton in a stadium, seven thirty Eastern, six thirty local

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Speaker 1: time kickoff. I pulled every string I could. I texted

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Speaker 1: James Span every thirty minutes until he finally put out

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Speaker 1: a forecast. We like, we think this game is going

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Speaker 1: to be dry. We think Hurricane Helen will have floated

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Speaker 1: innocently off to the east and we're good to go here.

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Speaker 1: So weather don't think is going to be a factor.

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Speaker 1: This is the first home underdog spot for Alabama since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and seven. Ryan Williams leads that team in

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Speaker 1: receiving right now. He was born in two thousand and seven,

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Speaker 1: so this is a pretty historic situation unfolding here. Even

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Speaker 1: when LSU and Joe Burrow came in there in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 1: they were like a five to six point dog. They won.

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Speaker 1: It's not that Bama hasn't lost at home, but they

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Speaker 1: haven't been an underdog at home since two thousand and seven.

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Speaker 1: These teams are a combined sixty two and one in

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Speaker 1: August and September since twenty seventeen. The whole focal point

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Speaker 1: to me from a broad perspective on this thing, and

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Speaker 1: the overarching perspective that extends just beyond the football game,

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Speaker 1: is how personal it is between these two programs, and

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Speaker 1: we've documented that several times on this show. I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's anyone better equipped to talk about it because

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Speaker 1: I grew up smack dab on the border of these

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Speaker 1: two states. But also, there are a lot of people

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Speaker 1: who are going to throw one in five one in five.

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Speaker 1: We Kirby's one in five in his time at Georgia

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Speaker 1: against Alabama. So that's the big talking point. Is he

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Speaker 1: one in five against Bama or is he one and

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Speaker 1: five against Saban? Cause Saban's gone now. So if it

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Speaker 1: was just a Saban problem, we'll find out pretty quickly,

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Speaker 1: won't we. That's why God has us play the football games.

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Speaker 1: So first thing I'm watching in this game. We got

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Speaker 1: an explosive offense in Alabama. We got a defense at

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Speaker 1: Georgia that really doesn't allow that sort of thing. They

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Speaker 1: don't stand for it. They don't allow it. Bama thirteen

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Speaker 1: touchdowns of twenty plus yards this season already, that's good

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Speaker 1: for second in all of FBS. Georgia forget about giving

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Speaker 1: up explosive touchdowns. They just haven't let anyone cross the

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Speaker 1: goal line yet. So it's pretty good. Pretty good. People

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Speaker 1: including me, have talked about how maybe there are parts

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Speaker 1: of this Georgia defense that aren't quite vintage. But I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what is vintage. Not letting the other teams score.

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Speaker 1: That's really the name of the game, isn't it. And

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Speaker 1: they haven't really let anyone do that. Number one pass

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Speaker 1: defense in the country. They've given up two plays period

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Speaker 1: of twenty plus yards. Now, this is September, albeit late September,

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Speaker 1: but still the first month of the season. So anything

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Speaker 1: we say about a team right now and part of

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Speaker 1: their profile, unless you've played Kent State's schedule, is largely

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Speaker 1: going to be made up of a bunch of world beaters.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think anyone looks at Bama's profile and says, well,

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Speaker 1: South Florida, Wisconsin boy powerhouse programs, nor do people look

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Speaker 1: at Georgia's stat profile and well Kentucky, Kentucky. I expect

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Speaker 1: them to be there in the end. Now, they did

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Speaker 1: play Clemson, so that's a very very legitimate opponent that

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Speaker 1: Georgia played in Week one. Here's the question as far

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Speaker 1: as the explosive play rate goes for Alabama, as far

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Speaker 1: as how important explosivity and verticality is in these games period,

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Speaker 1: always has been, even when these two play. Is a

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Speaker 1: player like Ryan Williams, player on the other side like

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Speaker 1: Arian Smith for Georgia, but for Alabama, a player like

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Speaker 1: Ryan Williams, what's his impact here? All of his impact

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Speaker 1: has been on big plays so far this year. That's wonderful.

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Speaker 1: You can call that feast or famine, boom or bust,

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Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. That's wonderful to have

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Speaker 1: and it means at any given point when he's on

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Speaker 1: the field, something electric could happen. But he's also seventeen

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Speaker 1: years old. And I don't know if you guys are

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Speaker 1: aware of that. Jesse, I've I've got it on good authority.

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Speaker 1: They haven't really talked much about Ryan Williams age on

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Speaker 1: the broadcasts only. They've mentioned it eighty three times so

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Speaker 1: far this year, So if you were in the kitchen

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Speaker 1: or you had it on mute, you may have missed it.

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Speaker 1: So he's seventeen years old. But here we'll talk for

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Speaker 1: a second. Georgia can try and get as physical with

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Speaker 1: him as anyone will all year. Georgia can put the

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Speaker 1: kind of attention and the kind of elite athleticism on

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Speaker 1: him at dB to the degree more so than anyone

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Speaker 1: will all year. So let's just say for argument's sake,

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Speaker 1: Georgia succeeds in what they want to do with Ryan Williams.

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Speaker 1: Well them. I look at a guy like Jeremy Bernard.

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Speaker 1: Kendrick Law is a guy I always have circled for

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Speaker 1: Alabama because I think, regardless of what his statuet says,

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Speaker 1: he possesses the ability to go off at any given point.

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Speaker 1: But you go back to the SEC Championship game last year,

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Speaker 1: Isaiah Bond bit Georgia. It was I think five catches

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Speaker 1: seventy nine yards. That's not going to get you to

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Speaker 1: the College Football Hall of Fame. It made a difference

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Speaker 1: in the game, though. What kind of guy steps up

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Speaker 1: to do that. Ryan Williams does or doesn't do his thing.

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Speaker 1: Who steps up to have that kind of day for

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Speaker 1: Alabama or does anyone step up to have that kind

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Speaker 1: of day for Alabama. Second thing that I'm focused on

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Speaker 1: here is this is a supreme gut check moment for

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Speaker 1: the Georgia offense. So there's a lot of excuse making

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Speaker 1: right now. I've watched every snap that George's played so

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Speaker 1: far this year, and I can look at him and

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Speaker 1: I can say man, no brock Bowers, no, Lad McConkey man.

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Speaker 1: That allowed them to be very consistent and efficient last year,

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Speaker 1: and you don't just replace those kind of guys. Tate

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Speaker 1: Ratlet's going out against Kentucky. That's a huge deal. That's

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Speaker 1: a huge blow. They haven't been able to run the

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Speaker 1: ball overly effectively because teams don't really respect their pass

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Speaker 1: catching ability. Those are excuses. Here's the bottom line. Anytime

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Speaker 1: Georgia plays Alabama, it's a one game season. I watched

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Speaker 1: Bama barely get out of Jerdenhair Stadium by the skin

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Speaker 1: of their teeth last year on fourth and thirty one

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Speaker 1: with a win, and then they went and owned Georgia

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Speaker 1: the next week and won the game, so it's a

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Speaker 1: one game season. What I'm saying about that now, on

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Speaker 1: the flop side of that coin with Georgia is you

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Speaker 1: have the athletes to beat them. It's just about your

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Speaker 1: athletic profile. It doesn't even matter if there's not one

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Speaker 1: individual star. In totality, you ought to have the better

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Speaker 1: quarterback in this game because you're the one that's got

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Speaker 1: Carson Beck. You have recruited shot for shot with these guys,

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Speaker 1: and so you could be a little banged up. What

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Speaker 1: is depth about, Like, what is recruiting about if you

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Speaker 1: don't have the guys, whether the world knows their names

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Speaker 1: or not, to come into an environment like this and

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Speaker 1: step up to me. The reason george is so dangerous,

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Speaker 1: the reason they still may be the best team in

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Speaker 1: the country right now, if not one of the very best,

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Speaker 1: is the totality of athleticism on the roster. That's how

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Speaker 1: you win games like this. I almost enjoy watching teams

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Speaker 1: like that because it's almost anonymity outside of Carson Beck.

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Speaker 1: No one like a Nebraska fan randomly watching Georgia. They

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Speaker 1: know mikeel Williams probably maybe who's been out and will

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Speaker 1: return for this. In all likelihood, we hope and Carson

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Speaker 1: Beck that's who you know. It's a lot of anonymous guys,

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Speaker 1: but it's the G on the side of the helmet

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Speaker 1: and what that represents. Nine out of the twelve guys

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Speaker 1: in this VAMA secondary are either transfers or true freshmen.

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Speaker 1: So their biggest test so far from a pure passing standpoint,

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Speaker 1: has been like Western Kentucky Van Dyke went out early

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Speaker 1: in the Wisconsin game. No one's tested them. So it

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Speaker 1: may be that that athleticism in Bama's secondary is great,

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Speaker 1: and it may be that they're not vulnerable back there.

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Speaker 1: I'd be willing to guess there's some vulnerability back there,

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Speaker 1: and I'd be willing to guess that Carson Beck is

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Speaker 1: by far the best they will have faced so far.

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Speaker 1: Built to expose that and now number one, he can't

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Speaker 1: be under duress all night. But number two, someone's just

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Speaker 1: flat out got to step up, Like someone's gotta make plays.

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Speaker 1: Arian Smith I think went off one time against Bama

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Speaker 1: in that SEC Championship game. Just they've got the guys there.

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Speaker 1: Georgia is good enough at wide receiver. Whether guys have

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Speaker 1: come through so far in shining fashion this year, it's

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Speaker 1: a one game season. Now, there should be guys do

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Speaker 1: things against Alabama that to this point in the season

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Speaker 1: you haven't seen them do. That's the way the game

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Speaker 1: should play out, So I expect it to happen there.

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Speaker 1: And the other thing that I'll tell you this is

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Speaker 1: just me personally. I'm not Mike Bobo. But if you

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Speaker 1: throw if you throw some eighteen year old kids out

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Speaker 1: there in the secondary at me, I am going to

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Speaker 1: make sure they tackle on the perimeter. One of the

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Speaker 1: first things you'd have to prove to me when you

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Speaker 1: got young guys on the field at dB is not

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Speaker 1: whether they can cover my wide receivers. It's whether they

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Speaker 1: can tackle my guys out of the backfield. That's the

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Speaker 1: first thing that have to prove to me. Then once

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Speaker 1: you prove you can do that, well, then we'll settle

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Speaker 1: in and then we'll lick the index finger and we'll

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Speaker 1: flip to chapter two and chapter three and chapter four.

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Speaker 1: But dude, if you can't do that, if you can't

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Speaker 1: tackle me on the perimeter, number one is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a long night for you. Number two, that opens up

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Speaker 1: my interior run. And that should be ballgame. That should

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Speaker 1: be fundamental at that point for Georgia. As far as

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Speaker 1: running the ball goes, I think Alabama's gonna success running

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Speaker 1: the ball against Georgia. I think I think Justice Haynes

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Speaker 1: is a very very good tailback. Jam Jalen Milroe himself

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Speaker 1: is going to be a big time running threat and

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Speaker 1: always is in these kind of games. Right now, Alabama's

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Speaker 1: number one in the country in yards before contact per rush,

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Speaker 1: so that should not happen against Georgia. Georgia should get

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Speaker 1: hands on you pretty quickly. I wouldn't expect that to continue. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect Alabama to be pushing two fifty three

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Speaker 1: hundred yards on the ground. It's not that it's running

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Speaker 1: for enough and it's being consistent enough to where I'm

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Speaker 1: not in third and seven, I'm in third and three,

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Speaker 1: I'm in fourth and one. I can live with that.

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Speaker 1: I can deal with that. I think I've got the

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Speaker 1: offensive line if I'm Alabama that I trust in those spots.

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Speaker 1: But Kentucky ran for one seventy on Georgia. Now, Kentucky

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Speaker 1: had a little bit different game script. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Kentucky ever had visions of pushing the ball down the

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Speaker 1: field and Kentucky was a lot more content with we'll

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Speaker 1: dink it, we'll dunk it, We'll take our time and

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Speaker 1: hopefully that shortens the game and that plays into our

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Speaker 1: wheelhouse cause we don't have the athletes to match them.

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Speaker 1: I'm not totally sure that's the way Maama goes about it. However,

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Speaker 1: let's just workshop the theory for a second. Let's say

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Speaker 1: they did. Right now, my biggest concern if I'm a

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Speaker 1: Georgia fan, is I think I'm getting guys back. I

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Speaker 1: think that I'm getting a couple of guys back on

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Speaker 1: my defensive front that are gonna make a big difference.

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Speaker 1: Because I had three defensive linemen each play fifty snaps

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Speaker 1: a piece against Kentucky and the next guy played seventeen.

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Speaker 1: I had no rotational depth. I had no Georgia depth

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Speaker 1: that I would normally have, And if they sustained a

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Speaker 1: couple more drives, I'm probably gonna lose the game. But

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Speaker 1: they didn't because we're good enough defensively. However, I'm getting

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Speaker 1: those guys back. I don't know what their legs are

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Speaker 1: made of right now. If Bama sustains some stuff early

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Speaker 1: in the game and we get the halftime and they've

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Speaker 1: run two to one play advantage against us, time of possessions, whatever,

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Speaker 1: But the amount of plays that my guys have been

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Speaker 1: on the field for, if that's out of whack, doesn't

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Speaker 1: really matter what score is at that point. As long

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Speaker 1: as it's comparable, Bam. It can be down three, up three,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. It does not bode well for me

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Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter unless my strength and conditioning and

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Speaker 1: my rehabit, my medical has done the kind of miracles

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Speaker 1: that Georgia's folks can do and those guys are ready

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Speaker 1: to play twenty twenty five thirty snaps. If they're able

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Speaker 1: to do that, then that's wonderful. And what I'm saying

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Speaker 1: is a moot point. I don't take that for granted.

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Speaker 1: I don't just assume that that's an automatic. I've told

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Speaker 1: you before and I'll tell you again. I listen to

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Speaker 1: a lot of Kirby Smart. We've we've had him on

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Speaker 1: the show several times, We've spoken to him on off record.

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Speaker 1: I listened to most of his press conference. He is

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Speaker 1: honest about this stuff, and so I listened to him

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Speaker 1: give injury updates and when he says I'm hopeful they're

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Speaker 1: not hiding anything. They are hopeful Michael Williams can go.

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Speaker 1: I think he practiced yesterday, like I expect him to play.

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Speaker 1: I expect a couple of these other guys that have

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Speaker 1: been out to play at what level. It's not about

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Speaker 1: getting in the game. It's not whether you can get

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Speaker 1: them physically on the field. They're facing one of the

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Speaker 1: best teams in the country. Can they play to the

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Speaker 1: standard you need them to play? And Bama's gonna test it.

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Speaker 1: And Bama's happy to run on you and run on

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Speaker 1: you and run on you. In fact, it's what they

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Speaker 1: would prefer to do. I just wonder is that is

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Speaker 1: that able to be taken advantage of? And if it's not,

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Speaker 1: then we got a normal game on our hands. If

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Speaker 1: it is, then you've got a problem that maybe you

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Speaker 1: don't foresee as much so George's health is. It's an issue.

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Speaker 1: It's an issue for anybo. Bamas just got offensive line back,

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Speaker 1: so help has been an issue for them as well.

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Speaker 1: I think revenge matters a whole lot here. It's an

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Speaker 1: intangible there's no way to quantify it. I know a

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Speaker 1: lot of people don't even value talking about this. I

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Speaker 1: just know whether it's Saban or whether it's Kirby Smart

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Speaker 1: in the past with Saban or Kirby Smart when they've

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Speaker 1: lost a game. It's not that Kirby needs it. Kirby

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Speaker 1: Smart doesn't need it himself. But there's this little extra

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Speaker 1: there's this little extra injection of whatever that intangible is

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Speaker 1: it puts into your program when, especially when you're measuring

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Speaker 1: yourself to the guy in the other state and then

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Speaker 1: they beat you, everything's geared towards getting back and in

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Speaker 1: this case, you're going to get them in the regular season,

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Speaker 1: and who knows what down the road may hold. But

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Speaker 1: that along with staff continuity. At Georgia, there's not a

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Speaker 1: lot of staff turnover over there, like they've got the

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Speaker 1: same guys in the house largely that they have had

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Speaker 1: and I value that stuff, and there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of guys working together for the first time. At Alabama,

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Speaker 1: that's an edge to Georgia, there's no doubt about that.

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Speaker 1: Home fields an edge Forbama. Staff continuity is a big

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Speaker 1: edge to Georgia. The revenge factor is a big edge

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Speaker 1: to Georgia. I've heard a lot of what the Bama

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Speaker 1: folks have said, Bama players have said, don't love it.

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Speaker 1: At all. If they can back it up, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: But they hear it in Athens. But I'll tell you

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Speaker 1: another thing that I cannot shape. I last year flew

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Speaker 1: up to Seattle, Washington. It's the first time I ever

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Speaker 1: saw Kaylen de Boor coach in person. He took on

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Speaker 1: Dan Lanning as an underdog and beat him. And then

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Speaker 1: they faced off again in Las Vegas a few months later,

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Speaker 1: and he took on Dan Lanning again as an underdog

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Speaker 1: and beat him. And I think you're aware of Landing's

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Speaker 1: last stop before he was at Oregon, And I think

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Speaker 1: you're pretty keenly aware of the kind of defense stylistically

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Speaker 1: schematically that Dan Lanning runs. Dbor's not face Kirby smart.

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Speaker 1: Debors faced the next best thing in an underdog role

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Speaker 1: twice and gotten the job done against him. And I

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Speaker 1: cannot shake it because I didn't make my decision on

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Speaker 1: this game until about forty five minutes ago. Colin, let's

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Speaker 1: take a look at what the model thinks. George is

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Speaker 1: favored by two and a half right now at FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: Our model has it right out of pick. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think the model had Alabama by two tenths of

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Speaker 1: a point. I simply went with home field here and

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Speaker 1: that idea that I couldn't shake out of my head

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Speaker 1: from last year of debor going up against Landing twice

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Speaker 1: and beating him. I think they're going to find a

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Speaker 1: way to get the job done here. So I'll take

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Speaker 1: Alabama to win the game outright, and that is a

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Speaker 1: coin flip in my mind. There's no money being waged

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Speaker 1: on this in my part. And the other thing that

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Speaker 1: I wanted to address is a couple of you have

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Speaker 1: said today, boy, with this expanded playoff, these games don't

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Speaker 1: mean anything. You have no idea what you're talking about

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Speaker 1: and don't need to be taken seriously, frankly, if you're

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Speaker 1: looking at this kind of game and saying it doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean anything because playoff. This game means something if it's

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Speaker 1: played and a playoff doesn't exist, or if a playoff

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Speaker 1: has thirty teams in it, because this game has this

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Speaker 1: added huge thick layer of meaning that has nothing to

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Speaker 1: do with college football's postseason. And you either get that

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Speaker 1: or you don't. But if you get it, you understand

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Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. You're just nodding your head. Yes,

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Speaker 1: there are playoff ramifications that aren't settled one way or another.

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Speaker 1: After this game goes final Saturday night. I'm just trying

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Speaker 1: to tell you that man made playoff notwithstanding, there's stuff

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Speaker 1: that's mattered in this sport for a lot longer than

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Speaker 1: that playoffs existed, promise, and that stuff's what will be

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Speaker 1: on display Saturday night. So come what may three or

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Speaker 1: four months down the road, I promise you, And I'm

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Speaker 1: as anti playoff expansion as it gets, but I promise

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Speaker 1: you there's meaning on this one. There's meaning. Your point

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Speaker 1: is taken, but I promise you there's a meaning on

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Speaker 1: this game. Tuscaloosa, Alabama will be lit on fire Saturday.

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Speaker 1: The tailgating scene will be wild. Academy sports and outdoors

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Speaker 1: will of course be well represented, just an ocean of Academy.

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Speaker 1: And I would encourage you if you're headed out anywhere

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Speaker 1: to tailgate this Saturday, or you just got to gear

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Speaker 1: up because fall sports are here, or you just want

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Speaker 1: to get a new jacket, you know, whatever the case

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Speaker 1: may be. I don't know what you're doing in your

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Speaker 1: personal life. I just want you to make sure you

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Speaker 1: visit Academy before you do it. And if you can't

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Speaker 1: get there in person. Academy dot Com can hook you up.

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Speaker 1: They've got everything you need and they make our show

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Speaker 1: free to you, and we appreciate them for that. And

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Speaker 1: they've been in they've been in the game with us

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Speaker 1: for quite a while, always had our backs, and we

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Speaker 1: would kindly, humbly, as we do on this show, ask

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Speaker 1: that you just check them out. All I've got to

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Speaker 1: do is get you in the door over there. Once

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Speaker 1: you get in the door, especially if you've never been

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Speaker 1: there before, your jaw hits the ground and you're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: they've got this here. I knew they had that. They've

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Speaker 1: got this here. That's it. That's the Academy experience. And

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Speaker 1: we appreciate them. All right, we got a long way

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Speaker 1: to go. On tonight's show, Who is Jesse? Is this

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Speaker 1: you posing as me in the live chat? Do you

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00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,399
Speaker 1: do that all the time? I didn't know you did that? Okay,

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Speaker 1: well here, just just so no one's freaked out. The

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Speaker 1: smiley face in the live chat, that's me. I can't

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Speaker 1: guarantee the next thing said under my name is me,

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Speaker 1: but good job, Jesse. What do you think have been

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Speaker 1: the biggest stories so far in the sport this year?

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Speaker 1: Could be negative? Could be positive. It surprised you, It

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Speaker 1: reinforced what you thought. I had a couple of things.

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Speaker 1: I think one of the biggest stories in college football

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Speaker 1: so far this year has been just what's happened in

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida. Have you really thought about this individually?

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Speaker 1: You've thought about Florida State? DJ Leanglalay is not at

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Speaker 1: all what they hoped to be at the quarterback position.

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Speaker 1: The entire concept that this team was just gonna seamlessly

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Speaker 1: roll over last year's results, even though personnel was gone,

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Speaker 1: but the standard was still going to remain. I kind

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Speaker 1: of believed in that. I predicted Florida State to be

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Speaker 1: a fringe playoff team. I predicted them in the playoff,

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Speaker 1: and they're not going to be that. Spoiler alert. They

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Speaker 1: finally won a game last week against Cal But that's

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Speaker 1: a big story because now it's taken the future and

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Speaker 1: it's put it in doubt what once was thought to

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Speaker 1: be certain, and that is Mike Norvell and Florida State.

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Speaker 1: They'll be at the table every year. Maybe they will,

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Speaker 1: but at the very least after this year, that confidence

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Speaker 1: is shaken a little bit. And then you'd love to

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Speaker 1: be in Gainesville laughing at him, but you can't because

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Speaker 1: they laugh right back at you because you're both in

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Speaker 1: the same boat with a huge leak that's been sprung.

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Speaker 1: And so Florida is going into the bye week now,

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Speaker 1: fortunately off a win against Mississippi State, so it doesn't

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Speaker 1: feel as gross as toxic. But the number one point

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Speaker 1: of conversation down there is who's gonna be our head

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Speaker 1: coach next year? It won't be Billion Napier. That's the

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Speaker 1: number one point of conversation right now. And in the interim,

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Speaker 1: you've got a recruiting class you're trying to hold together,

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Speaker 1: You've got a roster you're trying to hold together. The

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Speaker 1: whole quarterback situation has been unclear, and that's with the

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Speaker 1: toughest part of your schedule still to come. Then you

426
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 1: go down I ninety five are pretty good ways and

427
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: you get to Coral Gables. They're one of the best

428
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 1: teams in the country, at least we think they are,

429
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 1: And unlike Florida, Miami doesn't get tested repeatedly this year

430
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 1: with premier competition. Miami looks premiere. We think they're premiere,

431
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 1: and so you're sitting there and that bothers you. But

432
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,959
Speaker 1: then you also know, man, I sure do wish they

433
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: played Georgia. I wish they played filling the blank, filling

434
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 1: the blank, fill in the blank. Instead, Virginia Texas got

435
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 1: like Miami's got Virginia Tech. They go to Louisville at

436
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 1: Louisville's one of their biggest tests of the year. You

437
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 1: think Florida wouldn't sign up for that, absolutely and a heartbeat.

438
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: But just because you don't play a ton of elite

439
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: competition doesn't change the fact you could be elite. Miami

440
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: could be elite. So Miami's elevated like Miami's done what

441
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 1: they're supposed to do, and a lot of people doubted that. Ironically,

442
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: and if you pitched to them the Miami doubters that

443
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: Florida State was the one that was going to fall

444
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: off the cliff, they would have called you crazy. Miami

445
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: will elevate, Florida State will fall down the stairs. They

446
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 1: would have called you crazy. That's why no prediction in

447
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: this sport is actually crazy. And then not to be outdone,

448
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: I think the most underrated team in the country, UCF, Yes,

449
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 1: UCF welcomes Colorado this weekend and they're going to probably

450
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 1: get as much attention as they've gotten all year, not

451
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: from this show. We've been paying attention. We think UCF

452
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: is a top twenty team. The AP doesn't even think

453
00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 1: they're a top thirty five team. Translation, drugs, as we

454
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: talked about the other night, drugs the only explanation. So

455
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 1: the state of Florida at every stop is a story.

456
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: Is a big time story in college football right now,

457
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: another big story. The top of the SEC looks pretty

458
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: crazy right now. However, is the depth of the conference

459
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 1: what we thought it would be? Well, I would say

460
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 1: if you look at the JP pole right now to

461
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: be released a little bit later tonight, they have got one, two, three,

462
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 1: five of the top eight teams in the country, and

463
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 1: the AP would very closely match that. So five of

464
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: the top eight teams in the country. Now, if you're

465
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 1: judging this equally, if you're not using a different scale

466
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 1: for the SEC than every other conference, that's the end

467
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,199
Speaker 1: of the conversation. Like, if you've got five of the

468
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 1: eight best teams in the country, the rest of your

469
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: conference can be high school teams and you're still the

470
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: best conference in the country. However, these teams were expected

471
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: to be good. Missouri a little bit questionable right now.

472
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 1: I'll get to them in a second. But SEC. He

473
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: has five of the top six scoring defenses in the country.

474
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 1: Right now, they've got four of the top eleven scoring offenses.

475
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 1: Now you get to the second layer, and that's where

476
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: the question is. And I want to just wholeheartedly clap

477
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: for the top layer. I don't want to just skim

478
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 1: past that because it's ultra impressive what they are at

479
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: the top right now. Fan duel odds to win the

480
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: national title Georgia two, Texas three, Bama four, Ole Miss six,

481
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 1: Tennessee seven. Five of the top eight or five of

482
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 1: the top seven teams favor to win at all are

483
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 1: from the SEC. Playoff expansion is great. Huh oh man?

484
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: Can you just feel can you feel the equality bleeding

485
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: into the sport as we speak? Can you feel the

486
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: competitive balance? I can. It's like a breath of fresh

487
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 1: air in the room. Well, what about Oklahoma. Oklahoma's not

488
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 1: good and we thought they probably would be. Florida disaster

489
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: so far, Auburn disaster. So far. LSU is the shakiest

490
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: top fifteen team in the history of organized sport. Their

491
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 1: own fan base would agree with it. In fact, this

492
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 1: is one of those rare instances where I am not

493
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: being as harsh on a team with a number next

494
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: to their name as their own fan base, I will

495
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 1: get DMS saying stop taking it so easy on LSU.

496
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: It's a pretty wild situation right now. And then A

497
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 1: and M got a huge game against Arkansas this Saturday.

498
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 1: They've already got a loss on their resume, They've got

499
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: quarterback injury issues, and Missouri just flat out is not

500
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: as good right now as people expected. Although I will

501
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:39,959
Speaker 1: say I'm going to talk about him in just a second.

502
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 1: I still think there's a lot of upside that Brady

503
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: Cook could see. I still think that offense could scale up.

504
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 1: I'm not giving up on Missouri, but certainly don't think

505
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 1: that they've fulfilled on the potential folks thought they had.

506
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: So the SEC at the tops insane. It's almost like

507
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: there's no level too. It's like level one to level

508
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: three in the SEC right now. Bad quarterback play bad

509
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: quarterback play in college football so far. It's not just

510
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 1: an NFL Sunday thing. There's some bad quarterback play from

511
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 1: folks we experience or we expected more from so far

512
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: this year. Obviously, not to beat a dead horse but Oklahoma,

513
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 1: what we watched Saturday nights fresh in our mind with

514
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 1: Jackson Arnold was atrocious. There are many theories out there

515
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: as to why that could be. Certainly, you lose Jeff

516
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 1: Levy and you all of a sudden look totally differently.

517
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 1: And yes, yes, yes, like that. Jalen Daniels is dealing

518
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: with that at Kansas loses offensive coordinator and all of

519
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: a sudden things look much different. Yes, I'll grant you that,

520
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: But guys lose coordinators all the time. The truly transcendent,

521
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,479
Speaker 1: like top level guys, they just produce, they just perform.

522
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: Jackson Arnold hasn't. And so now as a result, they're

523
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 1: going to go with a backup who is another starter

524
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 1: against Auburn this week. We'll predict that game later. Dju

525
00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 1: again not to be a dead horse, not even close.

526
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: Looks like he has significantly regressed from the quarterback he

527
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: had been. Like, it's one thing to hype a guy

528
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: up and he matches his production from the last two

529
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 1: years and you hate on him, that's your fault. But

530
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 1: if you expect what he has been and he doesn't

531
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: even match that, that's that's the tougher pill to Swallow.

532
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: I just mentioned Brady Cook at Missouri. Brady Cook has

533
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: one game with two hundred and thirty plus passing yards

534
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: right now. That completion percentage sixty eight point seven percent.

535
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 1: It looks good. He has not been accurate enough. He

536
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: is missing guys that are open, and as a result,

537
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 1: they haven't taken off offensively. But I've seen him do

538
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,719
Speaker 1: it before. I think they can do it. He's got

539
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 1: one of the best receivers in the country. They're playing

540
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: with him too, so I'm not giving up on that.

541
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: It's just been disappointing so far. The Michigan situation. Obviously,

542
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: Davis Warren starts the season. Now it's alex Orgy. They're

543
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: out here winning games throwing for thirty two yards. That

544
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 1: kind of is what it is. That's not a shock

545
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 1: for anyone who followed, you know, Michigan in spring and

546
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: summer and fall. No one ever expected a prolific path attack,

547
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: even by the lowest of expectation levels, though it's been

548
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: pretty woof and notre Dame. Riley Leonard just can't throw

549
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: the ball. Riley Lennard comes in there and he's one

550
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: hundred and forty six pass yards per game. Right now,

551
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,239
Speaker 1: and they lost a game as a result of it.

552
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: They couldn't get separation against Northern Illinois. And they play

553
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 1: Louisville this Saturday, and he's going to be the second

554
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: best quarterback in that game in all likelihood. So bad

555
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: quarterback play has been a little disappointing to me. I'll

556
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 1: tell you something else that's just catching my eyes. We

557
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 1: move through this. The Big Ten balance of power is

558
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: starting to interest me a little bit because Ohio State

559
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: is the overwhelming top team odds wise in the conference

560
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: right now, and I don't have a problem with that.

561
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: I would make them that as well. I keep looking

562
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: at the next tier. So I'm wondering about Oregon, I'm

563
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: wondering about USC, I'm wondering about Penn State, because those

564
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: are three teams. USC is specially has a loss already.

565
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 1: I still think very highly of USC and I still

566
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 1: think that they can contend. They can be a challenger

567
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten. Oregon, certainly, I think can be

568
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 1: a challenger in the Big Ten. They needed a little

569
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 1: more runway to start the season, but I think they'll

570
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: be right there. Penn State, yeah, a little more reason

571
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: to question them cause the track records not there, but

572
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 1: I think they can also be a contender. And just

573
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 1: remember this about Ohio State before we place them up

574
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: on a pedestal that's not able to be reached. Do

575
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: not I don't know what the right word is. Don't

576
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: overblow the expectation level. I think the world of Ohio State.

577
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 1: I think I picked them to win the national title.

578
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: Don't just assume that since all these guys came back defensively,

579
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 1: they got way better. They were already good. They were

580
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: already really good. They are a really good defense. Now

581
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: just be careful thinking that they're all superheroes. They're not.

582
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: They're good college football players. They're really good. And with

583
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: Will Howard, don't just assume because you've always been able

584
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: to stretch the ball down the field vertically a lot,

585
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 1: don't just assume that's magically there. It may not be there.

586
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: So the thing about Ohio State is we will find

587
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: out because they play Oregon, they play Penn State, and

588
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: both of those games are on the road, and they

589
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 1: play Iowa as well. So I don't want to look

590
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 1: over this week's opponent at East Lansing, although I kind

591
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: of am, but they will be tested. So my point

592
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: there is when we get to, you know, November, do

593
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: we still feel the same way. Is it still Ohio

594
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: State and the field in the Big Ten or might

595
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: some of those other teams and who knows what Michigan

596
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: could do. I don't expect them to be in that conversation.

597
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: Which crazy things have happened Iowa, Illinois like Nebraska. I

598
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,239
Speaker 1: don't expect them to be in that conversation. But is

599
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: there a little different conversation going on in November? That's

600
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: that's my only question. All right, got plenty more games

601
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: to predict tonight? Where are we going this week in Colin? Well,

602
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: we are going to Tuscaloosa because quick trip is fueling

603
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: the whole New Saturday tour. It is our fifth stop. Ye,

604
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,239
Speaker 1: it's our fifth stop of the season. We look here,

605
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 1: here's one thing that doesn't bode well for Alabama at all.

606
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: Road teams are four and zero so far this year.

607
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: And I don't necessarily want to take credit for it,

608
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: But if Georgia wins that game Saturday, you better believe

609
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 1: I'm taking credit back in my home state for them winning. Now,

610
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: if if we shake that and we just return to normalcy,

611
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: which should be back and forth, well then good for

612
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: Alabama for breaking the curse, but right now it is

613
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: it is a road team sort of tour. But Quick

614
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,479
Speaker 1: Trip been given out free gas all year. Gave out

615
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: a tank this morning. And what did you do this morning?

616
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: You went and got some avocado toast, especially if your

617
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 1: management probably pay thirteen eighty five for it. Who cares

618
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: not your money? Well, I gave out free tanks of

619
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: gas courtesy of Quick Trip. I've been doing it randomly

620
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: on the socials, so make sure you're following on both

621
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: of those. And we're going to continue to do that

622
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: all year. All right, let's return to some game predictions.

623
00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: Let's take a sip from the nondescript water jug five

624
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 1: dollars if anyone can predict this next game, by the way,

625
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: because it's impossible. Oklahoma was disastrous at quarterback last Saturday,

626
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: as was Auburn. It makes all the sense in the

627
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: world that they play each other this Saturday, three point

628
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: thirty Eastern kickoff on ABC. It kind of feels like

629
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,959
Speaker 1: a season on the brink sort of game for both programs,

630
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: and the thing about it is one of them's got

631
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 1: to lose, so it's going to be really, really uncomfortable

632
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,479
Speaker 1: leading up to the game. It's uncomfortable for both someone's

633
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: gonna get that giant breath, someone's gonna finally be able

634
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: to release, and a little bit of the tension is

635
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: let out, but someone else is going to be really,

636
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: really dealing with it for the next week. After this,

637
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: we have, got, of course, a situation at Auburn, just

638
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: like at Oklahoma, where the quarterback position is very unsettled.

639
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 1: But I want to start with Oklahoma, and I want

640
00:32:56,800 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: you to answer me a question. If you can, I

641
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: would like for you to tell me does anyone know

642
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's offensive identity? Anyone know Oklahoma's offensive identity? Because when

643
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 1: Jeff Levy exited to go to Mississippi State and Dylan

644
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 1: Gabriel left to go to Oregon, it seems like that

645
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 1: offensive identity kind of went out the door with him,

646
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 1: and we certainly didn't learn anything. In fact, it looks

647
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 1: like we forgot more things when we were watching to

648
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 1: play Tennessee last week. And now Jackson Arnold's benched and

649
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: Michael Hawkins Junior is in the twenty twenty three to

650
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four stat comparisons with Oklahoma, which are on

651
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: your screen right now, are mind boggling. If you're listening

652
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: on podcasts, just imagine a whole bunch of really good

653
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: stuff in twenty twenty three and a whole bunch of

654
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: stuff in the one hundreds in twenty twenty four. Okay,

655
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: so that's the bad news. The good news is it's early.

656
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: That may not be good news, though it could just

657
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 1: mean a whole lot more like two months more of

658
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: the same. Oklahoma is a really good program, though, man,

659
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: or is it really? It's just going to go down

660
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: like this all year? Michael Hawkins Junior. When he came

661
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: in last week, I was standing on the field. I

662
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 1: felt that sudden jolt of energy around the stadium. You

663
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: gotta bottle that up. You gotta bottle it up. You

664
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 1: gotta take it on the road. He needs to get

665
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 1: them seventeen points in this game, I think because I

666
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: if I'm Oklahoma and I've watched the Auburn film, Auburn's

667
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 1: turned the ball over two times or more in half

668
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 1: a dozen straight games. At this point. I'm counting on

669
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,240
Speaker 1: them defensively in special teams. If I'm Oklahoma, I'm counting

670
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 1: on my guys to get me at least seven in aggregate.

671
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 1: So if I can get them seventeen, and I can

672
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 1: get seven more from somewhere. Twenty four better be enough.

673
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: Like I'm taking this defense on the road. I think

674
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: it travels. Auburn's been really, really discombobulated. I'm gonna roll

675
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: the dice that twenty four is good enough, and if

676
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,760
Speaker 1: it's not, oh well tip your captain, Hugh Freeze and Auburn.

677
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,479
Speaker 1: But if he can find seventeen offensively, so that's not tough.

678
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: Shouldn't be tough. If I can find seventeen, rest of

679
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: the team gives me seven, twenty four, is that good

680
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: enough for Oklahoma? It better be. Hugh Freeze this week

681
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 1: talking to the media down there at Auburn saying, I

682
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 1: don't think we need to change anything. See, they've been

683
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 1: talking to him about how something may be wrong with him,

684
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 1: something may be wrong with his scheme, with his system,

685
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: with the players, he has all different things, and to

686
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: his credit, he stood firm. He's saying, I just think

687
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: that if we don't continually give the ball to the

688
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 1: other team will be okay, We'll be fine. Like what

689
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: we're doing is the same thing we've done in one

690
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 1: with in the past at other stops. So no I'm

691
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: not really changing anything. I just kind of hope we

692
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: find an answer and not turn the ball over repeatedly.

693
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 1: He's right, because they've thrown eight interceptions in their two

694
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: losses this season. Eight in two losses. Peyton Thorn, Hank Brown,

695
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: they've both gotten their shot this year, and neither of

696
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: them lit the world on fire. My guess, and this

697
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: is just a guess, is that Peyton Thorn may get

698
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: the start Saturday. I don't even know what that's worth,

699
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: and that's certainly not final lives or anything like that.

700
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 1: But Tennessee, here's one ray of hope that I would

701
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: give you if I'm trying to sell you on Auburn. Here.

702
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: Tennessee did not score on long drives against Oklahoma last week.

703
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 1: They popped them explosively a couple of times. Auburn is

704
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,479
Speaker 1: sixth in the country somehow offensively in plays of twenty

705
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: plus yards, So they have explosive potential as long as

706
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: it's their guy that catches the ball or it's their

707
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: guy who holds onto the ball. There is a principle

708
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: in play here that's going to play into my pick.

709
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 1: In fact, Colin, let's go ahead and put the model

710
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: up and I'll tell you what FanDuel has. Fandel has

711
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 1: Oklahoma as a two and a half point road favorite

712
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: right now. Now. The model is right out of pick them,

713
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 1: same thing it did with Bama Georgia. It's right out

714
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: of pick them. I don't like true freshman quarterbacks on

715
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 1: the road behind a shaky offensive line. There are two

716
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 1: elements there. I don't like the offensive line. I don't

717
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 1: trust a quarterback I don't know anything about. And it's

718
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's first trip on the road period this year, much

719
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: less an SEC play, and they got a fairly beat

720
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: up wide receiver group as well. So it is certainly

721
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 1: for It is certainly through no credit to Auburn's offense

722
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 1: to this point this year that I have any confidence

723
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,439
Speaker 1: in them. I don't have confidence in one of them.

724
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: I just have a little bit less confidence in Oklahoma

725
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 1: going on the road with those sorts of elements in play.

726
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 1: So I want you to watch me. Close my eyes.

727
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 1: I'm taking Auburn to win the game. Eyes are closed,

728
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 1: hard is full. I'm taking Auburn to win the game.

729
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 1: And afterwards, I don't know, man, afterwards, it feels really

730
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: shaky for Oklahoma. Auburn, who knows it's one of these

731
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 1: teams could go on a run like you never know.

732
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: Let's just say I'm wrong. Let's say Michael Hawkins goes

733
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,280
Speaker 1: in there and they beat Auburn twenty seven to thirteen.

734
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 1: They could have the same kind of vibe that A

735
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: and M did around their backup going in and beating

736
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 1: Florida convincingly. So you never know. Don't be right in

737
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 1: teams off in September, Mema always warned me against that.

738
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,479
Speaker 1: Don't be doing that, as easy as it may seem

739
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 1: for both of these teams, do me a quick favor

740
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,320
Speaker 1: check and see. Just make sure you're subscribed to the

741
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 1: channel in the podcast feed, and if you're not, do

742
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 1: me another favor and please subscribe. That's it. It's free,

743
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: doesn't cost anything, doesn't sign you up for anything. It's

744
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 1: the best of both worlds because nothing happens to you

745
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 1: and it helps us. Uh, you know why not? Let's

746
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: go ahead. I need to post something here right quick,

747
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 1: and there we go. Just get the chaos started early tonight.

748
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 1: The JP Pole is out Week five edition. Should I yeah,

749
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 1: I'll make sure and explain it just so I can

750
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: say I did. This is not a ranking. It has

751
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 1: nothing to do with rankings. It's just who the model

752
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 1: would favor over hoops on a neutral field if they

753
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 1: played this week. That's it, that's all. It doesn't matter

754
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: if you haven't played anyone. You don't earn anything here.

755
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 1: You don't automatically drop if you lose, you don't automatically

756
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 1: rise if you win. No one cares. There are gonna

757
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 1: be teams that you've already beaten that you're still behind.

758
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: That is because, and only because the model would say, well,

759
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 1: that team that's rated higher would be favored against this

760
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 1: team if they played again. And even if you yell, well,

761
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 1: what does that matter if they already played the game.

762
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 1: What does that matter. If it doesn't matter to you,

763
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,800
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter to you. No one's arguing this should

764
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 1: be how the playoff committee operates. This is just how

765
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 1: an odds maker would see things. So with that in mind,

766
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot of change. Number one through five.

767
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 1: Texas is still number one, Georgia is still number two,

768
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 1: Ohio State three, Bama fourth. Tennessee did rise one spot

769
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,760
Speaker 1: to number five. There is not a massive gap between

770
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 1: these teams. I should have written all this down. I

771
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 1: will tell you between numbers one and five, there's a

772
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 1: six point gap or a little over six point gap

773
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 1: Texas and Tennessee right now, So it's a little tighter

774
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: at the top, frankly than it normally has been. That's good.

775
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: That's good because that means we don't have any kind

776
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: of title picture sorted out yet. Number six through ten,

777
00:39:55,640 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 1: Oregon actually stayed the exact same power rating wise, but

778
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: because Tennessee got bumped up, they fell quote unquote their

779
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: number six. Miami is seven, Ole Miss is eight, Penn

780
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 1: State is nine, Clemson is ten. None of those teams

781
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 1: moved more than one spot, so negligible difference in their

782
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 1: power rating. Here's where it gets fun. Eleven through fifteen,

783
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 1: USC it did not drop off much. USC dropped a

784
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 1: zero point four points, about a half a point downgrade

785
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: from their game at Michigan. Not a huge deal because

786
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 1: we thought Michigan would win the game. So USC eleven,

787
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,359
Speaker 1: Notre Dame is at twelve. I'm gonna come back to that,

788
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 1: LSUS thirteen, Utah's fourteen, Louisville's fifteen. That Utah rating is

789
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: a cam rising in the game rating, so they're playing

790
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: without him. We don't know when it'll be back. They

791
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 1: beat Oklahoma State without him. Just assume that Utah rating

792
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: is with the starting quarterback Baked m Okay. So Notre

793
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: Dame's at twelve, I think they're overrated. What are they rated? Well,

794
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 1: they're rated twelve. I dug in a little bit. It

795
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:07,760
Speaker 1: turns out odds makers even have Notre Dame rated higher

796
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 1: than we do. A lot of the books out there.

797
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 1: I mean, if you took the traders and you got

798
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: their raw numbers, have Notre Dame at like nine and ten,

799
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: not nine to ten, record wise nine or ten. So

800
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 1: if you disagree with that, you're not alone. I disagree

801
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 1: with that. I disagree with the model on it. I

802
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 1: would not if I were ranking teams, I wouldn't have

803
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 1: Notre Dame that high. Jesse, do we know where Notre

804
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 1: Dame is in the AP because off the top of

805
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 1: my head, I have no idea. You know what, don't

806
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 1: ey waste your time? So Notre Dame twelve. I think

807
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,280
Speaker 1: they're a little too high. But then again, we build

808
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 1: this thing to not value my opinion. It's just it

809
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: values data, hopefully properly. So sixteen through twenty, Kansas State

810
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: is at sixteen. They did not drop a long way,

811
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 1: and let me explain why. So they got boat raced

812
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 1: by Brigham Young in a game that we expected them

813
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 1: to lose, so we didn't get anything we didn't expect

814
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: per se in the outcome. How warped the score looked

815
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 1: was because Kansas State had a ton of turnover issues.

816
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 1: They outgained Brigham Young and lost by thirty one. So

817
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 1: you may say, well, what does it matter if they

818
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 1: outgained them, if they lost, it doesn't they lost the game,

819
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 1: it counts. What I'm saying is, if we're trying to

820
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 1: do a future facing, predictive based model, what you have

821
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 1: to ask yourself is is there a difference as it

822
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 1: relates to how you'll play from that point moving forward?

823
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,879
Speaker 1: Is there a difference in losing thirty eight to nine

824
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: and being outgained by two hundred yards versus losing thirty

825
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: eight to nine and outgaining your opponent by one hundred

826
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 1: or so and you were just well minus in the

827
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: turnover battle. The answer is yes, because, as it turns out,

828
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 1: for a team like Kansas State, it is well out

829
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,439
Speaker 1: of the range of their profile to play a game

830
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: like that. Chances translation chances are they're not going to

831
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 1: play a game like that again. Whereas if you just

832
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: got boat raced and you got thoroughly defeated in every

833
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: facet of the game, well that's a lot more do applicable.

834
00:42:58,600 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 1: Then you're just not as good a team as we

835
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: thought you were. MODEL did not downgrade Kansas State much.

836
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 1: In fact, it took them down about one and a

837
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: half points. That's about what they dropped, so it's not

838
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: that actually is a decent downgrade, but not a huge downgrade. Whereas,

839
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 1: like if I were ranking teams in the AP, they

840
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: would have plummeted after losing like that. This is just

841
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: about future facing predictability. Iowa State is seventeen. They're up

842
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,839
Speaker 1: four spots. UCF is right there at eighteen. They are

843
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: not even in the top thirty five in the AP.

844
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 1: They're insane. They will be mark my words, the AP

845
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,760
Speaker 1: will have UCF ranked in the not too distant future,

846
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 1: and then we'll say welcome to the party. Missouri's nineteen.

847
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: They dropped seven spots, even though they won last week.

848
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 1: A and M is twenty. Missouri. Their overall downgrade was

849
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 1: we downgraded them three point seventy five points. It's not

850
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: a good team right now. Not well, they're good, They're

851
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,319
Speaker 1: not a great team right now. I think that the

852
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: profile of the team is that of one that has

853
00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 1: a lot of room to scale up. So I'm not

854
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:02,360
Speaker 1: giving up on them. But at the same time, if

855
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 1: we're trying to do this thing as to how we

856
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: would rate these teams on a neutral field right now,

857
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 1: I mean, you guy, I know good andwell my Missouri

858
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: crowd does not believe that it would be a dogfight

859
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: Iowa State versus you, or UCF versus you. I disagree,

860
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna tell you why, because I just watched

861
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,839
Speaker 1: Vandy take you to overtime. So forget the preseason. At

862
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,799
Speaker 1: this point, we got four games of sample size. You

863
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 1: gotta wipe the preseason expectation. You got four games under

864
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 1: your belt. That's the team. It's not what the preview

865
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 1: magazine said, It's not what you thought amongst each other

866
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,839
Speaker 1: on the message board anymore. You are not a very

867
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 1: good team right now, but you could be. So I'm

868
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 1: advancing all of this because I know the feedback I'm

869
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 1: gonna get. That's why I was so demonstrative because last

870
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: week I really undervalued or underestimated how hard Missouri folks

871
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 1: would come at US and then twenty one through twenty five,

872
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 1: Iowa twenty one. I thought they'd bump up more. Actually,

873
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 1: but they bumped up one. Michigan is up two spots

874
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 1: to number twenty two. Now, I told you a couple

875
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, I thought Michigan had bottomed out at

876
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: twenty Where were they Jesse twenty four? I thought they

877
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 1: had bottomed out. I still agree with that. I think

878
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 1: now and through the rest of the season, Michigan will

879
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 1: hang out in the fifteen to twenty five range because

880
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 1: I don't think the ceiling of the team is any

881
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 1: higher than that. Where were we at twenty three? Oklahoma

882
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 1: dropped three spots models not ready to punt on them,

883
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,239
Speaker 1: downgraded them two and a half points. Not ready to

884
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 1: punt on him yet. And here's the other thing to watch. Normally,

885
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 1: if you bench your quarterback or you lose him to injury,

886
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:39,399
Speaker 1: normally there's a big downgrade there. Probably not at all.

887
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,800
Speaker 1: In fact, there may be a net upgrade because I

888
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 1: can also tell you a lot of those a lot

889
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 1: of those coaches on that staff kind of sort of

890
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: thought they wanted that dude to win the job. In

891
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 1: the spring anyway, because they didn't think that Jackson Arnold

892
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 1: had in the spring. So Oklahoma interesting case studies still

893
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:57,839
Speaker 1: there at twenty three. I need I need you guys

894
00:45:57,880 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 1: to pretend that you hear a drum roll in your

895
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 1: head because we beat the AP to the party with

896
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: UCF Jesse. I have no idea if either of these

897
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 1: teams are ranked. I know Rutgers isn't. I don't know

898
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 1: if Indiana is, but no one cares what the AP says.

899
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 1: Indiana has entered the JP pole. I think for the

900
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 1: first time ever. They are number twenty four. Hats off

901
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 1: to coach sig and number twenty five Rutgers, New Jersey's

902
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 1: college football team. Rutgers Greg Ciano has cracked the JP poll.

903
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 1: Rutgers is twenty five. Shame on you people in the AP.

904
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,360
Speaker 1: Shame on you. The one thing you're supposed to be

905
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 1: good at is East Coast bias and the one shot

906
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 1: you have to be East Coast bias to the bone

907
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:48,839
Speaker 1: in college football. You drop it fantastically and you don't

908
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 1: rank Rutgers, and the JP pole beats you to it.

909
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 1: Shame for shame. You know, Rutgers goes to USC in

910
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,799
Speaker 1: the not too distant future. So that's the JP pole.

911
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: Feel free to rip it apart, but as long as

912
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 1: you do, make sure you give me your reasoning and

913
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 1: make sure you understand what we're doing with the JP pole. Please,

914
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 1: none of the low hanging fruit. You already know. I'm

915
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: gonna have to deal with that with casuals who'd wander

916
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: by and just see it on social media. In fact,

917
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 1: I just took the liberty of posting that right before

918
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: we started the segment, and it's already got four hundred

919
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: and one replies. So I'll be wading through that cesspool

920
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 1: after the show. I do it because I love it.

921
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: They're watching us in Tempe, Arizona, Fairfax, Virginia, Fleming Island, Florida,

922
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 1: and Shepherd, Montana. Thank you guys so much. Let's take

923
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 1: a rare but not unprecedented second sip from the nondescript

924
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 1: water jug. It's that time of year for the voice,

925
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 1: and then we're gonna get right back into previews. Oh

926
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 1: it's the spot. So I mentioned Oklahoma, Auburn's pretty pretty unpredictable.

927
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 1: I got another one for you. Arkansas plays A and

928
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,240
Speaker 1: M this Saturday at three point thirty on East ESPN.

929
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:04,719
Speaker 1: It's the game in Arlington out there, and Hoomst is

930
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 1: going to start at quarterback for A and M. That

931
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 1: is a big topic of conversation right now. Connor Wegman

932
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 1: still seems doubtful to me. From everything I can hear

933
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: and I can read, he seems doubtful to me still. Therefore,

934
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: Marcel Reid, who went and won the game at Florida,

935
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 1: I think, is going to be the starter in this game.

936
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 1: And so that's the A and M side. Over on

937
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 1: the Arkansas side, there's this sneaky momentum that they're starting

938
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 1: to build. I got roasted unfairly over on the Arkansas board.

939
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 1: Trey Biddy has left the door open, and a bunch

940
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:38,439
Speaker 1: of trolls wandered in started torching us because they didn't

941
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,760
Speaker 1: think we focused on Arkansas enough in the game recap

942
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 1: the other day. Well, at the very least I would

943
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 1: argue that. But I do get your points. So let's

944
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 1: talk about Arkansas here, because you're one and eleven in

945
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 1: the last twelve against this team. So we're gonna have

946
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 1: to do some stuff that we haven't done in a

947
00:48:55,640 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: while here. Arkansas seems to have found itself offensively. The

948
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 1: good news. Bobby Petrino has rode into town and they

949
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 1: have found themselves offensively. We got some paper popper stats here.

950
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 1: They're sixteenth in rush yards per game. They got seventeen

951
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 1: rush touchdowns already, that second in the country. They got

952
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:18,280
Speaker 1: fifty passes of ten plus yards, that's eleventh in the country.

953
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: So there is, unlike some of these other teams we're

954
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 1: talking about, not a whole lot of guessing about what

955
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,959
Speaker 1: Arkansas is. So if I'm A and M, I better

956
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 1: be ready to tackle well because A and M right

957
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 1: now is eighty second and yards per rush allowed not

958
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 1: great if I'm about to face Arkansas. Arkansas is the

959
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: number one team in the country and tackles avoided on rushes,

960
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 1: so it is hard to bring them down. Jaquinnin Jackson

961
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: is a load. He's been hard to bring down at quarterback.

962
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: I mean, ark Arkansas has been hard to bring down.

963
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 1: So the explosive run thread is there. A and M's

964
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 1: allowed six rushes of twenty plus yards. It's how they

965
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 1: lost the Notre Dame game. It wasn't a but a

966
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 1: couple of explosives. It's kind of like the way Michigan

967
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 1: beat USC takes a couple of those explosive runs, and

968
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 1: especially when you've got that threat at the quarterback position,

969
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 1: it's always there, it's ever present as a threat. A

970
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 1: and M's got to win this game, and they've I

971
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:17,680
Speaker 1: think that they've got a couple of options here. The

972
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: first one is just win strength on strength, so you

973
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 1: run it, and your eighth in rush yards per game

974
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 1: in Arkansas's defense is fourteenth, so they feel good about

975
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,839
Speaker 1: the ability to stop the run. But your strength just

976
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: matches and exceeds their strength, and that's a great feeling

977
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 1: when you can do that. So that's one possibility. I'm

978
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: sure they explore that. But number two is Marcel Reid

979
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:43,479
Speaker 1: a quarterback just has a big day throwing the ball.

980
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 1: The profile of Arkansas, especially the secondary, is there are

981
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,319
Speaker 1: plays to be had there. A and M's got one

982
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 1: receiver though so far over one hundred yards, so I

983
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 1: mean Marcel Reid also fifty six percent passer, although there's

984
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 1: barely any stat profile about him right now. So if

985
00:50:59,880 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: you just has a big day throwing the ball, if

986
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:03,759
Speaker 1: A and M has some guys step up, Arkansas's ninety

987
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 1: eighth in the country and pass yards per game allowed,

988
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 1: so the plays are there to be had. Are you

989
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 1: the team that can make them? Turnovers and mistakes cost

990
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: Arkansas against Oklahoma State, turnovers and mistakes cost A and

991
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 1: M against Notre Dame. So they've each had a game

992
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 1: this year where they looked afterwards and they said, you know,

993
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 1: there are some correctable things here. There's some self inflicted

994
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 1: wounds here, not the least of which was giving the

995
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 1: ball to the other team. And if we just you know,

996
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: just cleaned that up. All right, Well, you each have

997
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: an opportunity this weekend out there in Arlington, Texas, Colin.

998
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 1: What does the model say? FanDuel right now has Texas

999
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,400
Speaker 1: A and M is a neutral site game. Texas A

1000
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:46,840
Speaker 1: and M is a three and a half point favorite.

1001
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 1: The model has A and M as a four and

1002
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 1: a half point favorite. What I'm thinking here is I

1003
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 1: love what Arkansas did last week. However, a lot of

1004
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 1: it was predicated result wise, off turn So if I

1005
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 1: get that again, Arkansas is gonna win this game. But

1006
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 1: if I don't get that, and I don't think it's predictive.

1007
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:07,439
Speaker 1: So if I don't get that and it's a straight

1008
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 1: up game, I think there's enough life that's been injected

1009
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 1: here with Marcel Reid. Yet I actually think A and

1010
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 1: M can win this game and cover it better talent profile,

1011
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 1: although you know Bowling Green was close with him. They

1012
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,360
Speaker 1: lost to Notre Dame. They had a better talent profile

1013
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 1: than both those teams, so they haven't they haven't played

1014
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 1: up to that talent profile necessarily. But good vibes coming

1015
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,279
Speaker 1: out of the Florida game, and there's a chance to

1016
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 1: get the season restarted here and restarted behind Marcel Reid.

1017
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 1: And then we'll make a decision when Connor Wagman comes back,

1018
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 1: if indeed he comes back later. I think it's Marcel

1019
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 1: Read's game this week, and I think A and M

1020
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 1: is gonna find a way to win and cover close game. Though,

1021
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,399
Speaker 1: don't feel a whole lot of comfort there. I can't

1022
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 1: believe it, Colin. I got to reach all the way

1023
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 1: over here. I stole this from Emily Proud. Well, if

1024
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 1: she donated it, she's not expecting it back. It's not

1025
00:52:55,840 --> 00:53:00,840
Speaker 1: like a stick of lip bumb It's just medical stuff,

1026
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:07,359
Speaker 1: taste horrible. Does the trick? What you doing Friday night? Well,

1027
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:09,239
Speaker 1: here's what I think you should be doing Friday night.

1028
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 1: I think that you should you should settle in and actually, Colin,

1029
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 1: let's let's actually start the video here because I want

1030
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 1: this to be baked into the video. Okay, so if

1031
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:23,280
Speaker 1: you're watching live, ignore all that. Virginia Tech plays Miami

1032
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:26,840
Speaker 1: Friday night, seven thirty kick off Eastern time on ESPN.

1033
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 1: This game lost all its luster. Man. I looked at

1034
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 1: this in the preseason and I thought I was really sneaky.

1035
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,879
Speaker 1: I was circling this one and I said, hmm hmm,

1036
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 1: could we go Miami on a Friday night and then

1037
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 1: go to Tuscaloosa on a Saturday night? And the answer is,

1038
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 1: of course we could. However, I didn't think the line

1039
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 1: was going to be eighteen and a half, and it

1040
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:49,839
Speaker 1: is at FanDuel right now. So here's how Friday night

1041
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 1: rolls around here. I'm in a city this weekend, it'll

1042
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:54,920
Speaker 1: be Tuscaloosa. And what we do is we let the

1043
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 1: Friday night games start and when halftime of this game

1044
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 1: hits over on Instagram at late kick, Josh, that's when

1045
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,760
Speaker 1: we'll do Friday night lines. So we're not even setting

1046
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 1: a time, We're letting the football dictate the time. So

1047
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 1: that's part one of what you should be thinking here.

1048
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 1: Part two is we have to rack our brains, and

1049
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,359
Speaker 1: we're not picking Miami to win. Anyone can do that.

1050
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 1: What we got to ask ourselves is if the craziest

1051
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 1: were to happen, and Virginia Tech were to just totally

1052
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:25,479
Speaker 1: get off the deck and upset Miami. Theoretically, how would

1053
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 1: that happen? And believe it or not, we did come

1054
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 1: up with a couple of things. The first thing is,

1055
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:33,839
Speaker 1: how about finding a way to start a game. They

1056
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 1: trailed Vandy seventeen to nothing and lost close. They trailed

1057
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 1: Rutgers fourteen to nothing and lost close. Imagine if you will,

1058
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:47,919
Speaker 1: the impact on team morale and energy if you did

1059
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 1: nothing more than just three to nothing. Just kick a

1060
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,440
Speaker 1: little field goal there, Just go up early. I know

1061
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 1: that doesn't seem like it's much to ask. It has

1062
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 1: been for Virginia Tech so far this year. Number two. Somehow,

1063
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:04,439
Speaker 1: some way, some coaches have to make their money here

1064
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 1: because you got to find a way to overcome the

1065
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 1: biggest mismatch to me in this game. And you've got

1066
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 1: to do this by not trailing by the way and

1067
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:13,440
Speaker 1: thus not putting yourself in a catch up mode where

1068
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 1: you've got to throw the ball. Miami leaves the country

1069
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 1: in sacks. They're top ten in pressure rate defensively, Virginia

1070
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:23,840
Speaker 1: Tech sad paper Pop one hundred and tenth in sacks

1071
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: allowed so far this year, So duress just constantly. Quarterback

1072
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 1: position been under duress here. And then number three, they

1073
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:35,240
Speaker 1: have to have a big game from their offensive line

1074
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 1: because right now they're sort of middling running the ball.

1075
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 1: They're forty seventh in rush yards per game, and Miami's

1076
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:43,920
Speaker 1: got a top six run defense. So if you're listening

1077
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 1: out there and you're trying to keep track of all this,

1078
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:51,200
Speaker 1: Miami's got a co Heisman favorite quarterback. They have got

1079
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 1: the probably, if not number one, really close to the

1080
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 1: number one pass rush unit in the country. They've got

1081
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 1: a top six run stop defense in the country. And

1082
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 1: if you think it's just because they've played an inferior schedule, okay,

1083
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 1: I won't be able to convince you otherwise. And then

1084
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:10,360
Speaker 1: number two, number three, number four, you just have to

1085
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 1: catch Miami feeling themselves. If Miami were to slip a

1086
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 1: little bit, if they were to, you know, start start

1087
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 1: relaxing a little bit. I'm not saying it'll happen, but

1088
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:25,280
Speaker 1: if it were to happen, wouldn't it be here, wouldn't

1089
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 1: it be coming off the win on the road at

1090
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 1: South Florida. Everyone's starting to pump you really, really good now,

1091
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:33,319
Speaker 1: and you've got a home game short rest, and there's

1092
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:36,320
Speaker 1: a team that you're favored by almost three touchdowns against

1093
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 1: they're coming to town, and is that not the time

1094
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 1: it would happen? Okay, I've tried as hard as I

1095
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 1: can to sell you on this, Colin. Let's take a

1096
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:46,960
Speaker 1: look at what the model thinks. FanDuel numbers minus eighteen

1097
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 1: and a half right now in favor of Miami. The

1098
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:52,880
Speaker 1: model thinks that's not high enough. We've got Miami minus

1099
00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:56,759
Speaker 1: twenty one. I agree. I'm taking Miami to win. I'm

1100
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 1: taking Miami to cover. It is a Rama Noddle Express

1101
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,920
Speaker 1: best bet. So we are laying this big number with

1102
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 1: Miami without a moment's hesitation because I think the matchup

1103
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:10,359
Speaker 1: is horrific for Virginia Tech. And it's Christapaul's birthday today,

1104
00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 1: so who knows? Who knows how many points that's worth

1105
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: in the next game. Speaking of which, since I just

1106
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 1: revealed it, we are, of course, all odds on the

1107
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 1: show are proudly presented by FanDuel Sportsbook, and there are

1108
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:27,720
Speaker 1: there are as we get later in the week. There

1109
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 1: are always profit boost tokens. I normally tell you about

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Speaker 1: it late in the week. But here's what you need

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Speaker 1: to know. What you need to know is they provide

1112
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1113
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 1: like we'll have some good stuff on Thursday night that

1114
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 1: no other show will have because FanDuel doesn't give it

1115
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 1: to any other show. It's really helpful, it's really informative,

1116
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 1: and we appreciate them for that. But also, if you

1117
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Speaker 1: want to go over there and sign up, there's a

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Speaker 1: way you can do it that helps us out. Number

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Speaker 1: one is just click on the QR code that's always

1120
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 1: on the screen. But there's also a link in the description.

1121
00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 1: But if you don't feel like either of those, it's

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Speaker 1: just FanDuel dot com backslash CFB promotion. You'd still sign

1123
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Speaker 1: up the same way. It's just if you come in

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Speaker 1: through those kind of portals, they know we sent you

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Speaker 1: and it helps us. So, without further ado, we have

1126
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 1: added a second game to the Raminudele Express, proudly brought

1127
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 1: to you by Fandel. The first one was Kansas State

1128
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:22,040
Speaker 1: Minus five and a half. We already added that one.

1129
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 1: The other night, they're playing Oklahoma State. I like Kansas

1130
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 1: State by more than a touchdown in that one. I

1131
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 1: like Miami by three plus touchdowns Friday night. So we're

1132
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 1: taking Miami minus eighteen and a half and we will

1133
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 1: add several more best bets. The Model was out of

1134
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:41,880
Speaker 1: its mind last week. The picks went six and three. Like,

1135
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 1: the Picks won plenty, even with Baylor just selling out

1136
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 1: totally on us the Leans, which you can only get

1137
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 1: on Friday Night Lines. That's why I encourage you to

1138
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:53,840
Speaker 1: make sure that you're following on Instagram at Lake Kick Josh.

1139
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: Those things have gone like I think it's nineteen and four.

1140
00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 1: The Leans are nineteen and four against the spread over

1141
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 1: the past two weekends, just like some absurd number. And

1142
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 1: I'm not counting that as our record, but I think

1143
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:08,479
Speaker 1: it's worth noting because that's the entire purpose of Friday

1144
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:11,439
Speaker 1: Night Lines. I give you some opinion the model has

1145
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:13,800
Speaker 1: on games you're interested in. I just scroll through the

1146
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 1: live chat on Instagram Live and if you've never tuned in,

1147
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Speaker 1: that's what it's about. Sign up for FanDuel at FanDuel

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Speaker 1: dot com. Backslash CFB promotion must be twenty one plus

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Speaker 1: for twenty four to seven support in Massachusetts. Or call

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Speaker 1: one eight seven seven eight hope in Why or texts

1162
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:17,960
Speaker 1: h op E n Y in New York. All right,

1163
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 1: one more game to get to here. As my computer

1164
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 1: went to sleep on me. Uh, there is a game.

1165
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 1: It's one of the games of the weekend. Louisville plays

1166
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:29,360
Speaker 1: Notre Dame Saturday night. It's a seven point thirty kickoff

1167
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 1: on NBC. Anyone remember this game last year? Anyone have

1168
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 1: any recollection of this game last year? I know, I

1169
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 1: know my Louisville folks do. They were about a touchdown

1170
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 1: underdog in this game last year, and we predicted them

1171
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: to win outright, and they won outright, and everyone from

1172
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:48,680
Speaker 1: Louisville was feeling the show. They loved it. They were

1173
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 1: all in subscribe, subscribe, subscribe, and then they tuned in

1174
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:55,920
Speaker 1: and I said, congratulations. However, you're gonna lose to Pitt.

1175
01:00:56,600 --> 01:00:58,920
Speaker 1: And then they came after us with torch and pitchfork

1176
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 1: in hand and proceeded to go and lose to Pitt.

1177
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:05,240
Speaker 1: The model knows Louisville. It has known Louisville for a

1178
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:08,560
Speaker 1: long time. So I'm not saying that whatever we say

1179
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 1: right now is about to absolutely happen from our lips

1180
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 1: to the football field, but it probably will. So similar

1181
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 1: situation here as last year, Notre Dame best served attacking

1182
01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 1: Louisville through the air. That is certainly the vulnerability of

1183
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 1: Louisville's defense. However, Notre Dame can't throw the ball. They're

1184
01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:27,240
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighth and pass yards per game. They

1185
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 1: are eighteenth in rush yards per game, So that's wonderful.

1186
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 1: All week, all week at practice, they will preach what

1187
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 1: they should preach, and that is, we're Notre Dame. Our

1188
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:39,600
Speaker 1: best should beat their best. It's the same thing Michigan

1189
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 1: preached last week. Doesn't matter if they know the runs coming,

1190
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 1: our best should beat their best. Okay, Louisville is eighteenth

1191
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 1: in rush yards per game allowed, so it's a top

1192
01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 1: twenty run d unit. Is your best good enough to

1193
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:54,080
Speaker 1: overcome that? When they don't really have to respect Riley

1194
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:56,720
Speaker 1: Lennard's arm. That's the first question. Number two, I think

1195
01:01:56,760 --> 01:01:59,040
Speaker 1: Louisville wants a quarterback match up here because I think

1196
01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:02,120
Speaker 1: Louisville's got the better ques. There were a lot more

1197
01:02:02,160 --> 01:02:05,000
Speaker 1: headlines around Riley Lennard going to Notre Dame. Tyler Shuck

1198
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 1: is healthy. We all know the rule in college football

1199
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 1: don't lose to food, which means don't get beat by rice.

1200
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 1: And then the other rule is when Tyler Shuck's healthy,

1201
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 1: he's really good. Now he hasn't been healthy a lot,

1202
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 1: but this year, so far, so good. Eight passing touchdowns,

1203
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:24,160
Speaker 1: zero interceptions, about a sixty eight point four completion percentage.

1204
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: Louisville's pass offense has primarily been Jacorey Brooks, the Bama transfer.

1205
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:31,800
Speaker 1: Now I need them to spread the love around a

1206
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 1: little bit more. It's not that they've been absent any

1207
01:02:34,240 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 1: other playmaker, but he's been the most consistent for him.

1208
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:39,480
Speaker 1: Their eighteenth in pass yards per game, Notre Dame's defense

1209
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 1: pass defense eighteenth, so both of them, respectively that side

1210
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 1: of the ball eighteenth in the country. Louisville had a

1211
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 1: defensive touchdown and a special team's touchdown last week and

1212
01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:53,920
Speaker 1: get Georgia Tech. And that was nice because I think

1213
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:56,120
Speaker 1: they won thirty one nineteen. It was right there on

1214
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:58,880
Speaker 1: what the model thought the outcome would be points spread wise.

1215
01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 1: Louisville's third in pressure rate, So Notre Dame in pass

1216
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:08,160
Speaker 1: downs concerns me. If they can run the ball, stay

1217
01:03:08,160 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 1: ahead of the sticks, you know, stay on schedule, blah

1218
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 1: blah blah, they'll be okay. I just don't know if

1219
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 1: I have full confidence in that now. Louis is a

1220
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:19,280
Speaker 1: little bit different road team than they are a home team.

1221
01:03:19,560 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 1: This is a hornet's nest for Notre Dame to walk

1222
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:24,800
Speaker 1: into last year. It will be a welcoming environment for

1223
01:03:24,840 --> 01:03:26,920
Speaker 1: them this year. Colin Let's take a look at what

1224
01:03:26,960 --> 01:03:30,000
Speaker 1: the model thinks. FanDuel number is Notre Dame minus six

1225
01:03:30,040 --> 01:03:34,520
Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, so that's that's wonderful. The model

1226
01:03:34,680 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 1: is much higher on Notre Dame Notre Dame minus nine.

1227
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:42,120
Speaker 1: It's the same thing it tried to do last week

1228
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:47,600
Speaker 1: with USC and I went against the model, and I'm

1229
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:50,919
Speaker 1: going to kind of go against the model here. Not totally, though.

1230
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 1: I think the model is overrating Notre Dame a little bit,

1231
01:03:55,400 --> 01:03:58,680
Speaker 1: and I think Louisville's really good. I think Notre Dame

1232
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:01,800
Speaker 1: is going to squeak out win here. It is very

1233
01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 1: very tight, though, so anything over a field goal in pointspread,

1234
01:04:05,640 --> 01:04:08,240
Speaker 1: I take Louisville, so I will take Notre Dame to win.

1235
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 1: I'll take Louisville plus what is it, Jesse six and

1236
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 1: a half. And I know there's not a ton of

1237
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:15,920
Speaker 1: skill in doing that, but I'm not betting any money

1238
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 1: on this game, so it doesn't really matter. There's no

1239
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 1: consequence to the wallet will llacial consequence as we call that,

1240
01:04:22,200 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 1: and so I'm gonna look to thread the needle and

1241
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:28,840
Speaker 1: favorite wins dog covers. Everybody's happy and no one's happy

1242
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:31,280
Speaker 1: all at the same time. Quick reminder to you guys.

1243
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:35,600
Speaker 1: The Peate State Store is open again. Peytstatematerial dot com.

1244
01:04:35,880 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 1: The Chuggy Te's not so surprisingly are best seller so far.

1245
01:04:40,280 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 1: And look when you introduce a new mascot, that's what happens.

1246
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 1: The new mascot flies off the shelf like Moodang. That

1247
01:04:45,680 --> 01:04:49,240
Speaker 1: little baby hippo very overrated and she's gonna be a

1248
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:51,640
Speaker 1: full grown hippo. And I'm not too distant future, and

1249
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:56,200
Speaker 1: they aren't cute. Chuggy will be cute forever. Huggy will

1250
01:04:56,200 --> 01:04:59,439
Speaker 1: be here forever. Moodang will not. So put your faith

1251
01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:02,680
Speaker 1: in Chuggy and forget Moodang. Moodang is yesterday's news. No

1252
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:05,800
Speaker 1: one cares about Moodang anymore. She's done so, as is

1253
01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 1: the show. I thank you guys so much for watching.

1254
01:05:08,080 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 1: For direct column from producer Jesse, I'm Josh Baate. Take care.

1255
01:05:11,240 --> 01:05:13,880
Speaker 1: We'll see you back here Thursday night. Until then, cup

1256
01:05:13,920 --> 01:05:25,160
Speaker 1: Once sign up for FanDuel at FanDuel dot com. Backslash

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1265
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1266
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1267
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1268
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1269
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1270
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1271
01:06:20,400 --> 01:06:21,080
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