1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Runch you by Bank of America Mary Lynch with virtual reality, 2 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: Virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: VI of a mL dot Com slash VR, Mary Lynch, 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner, and Smith Incorporated. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 7 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 8 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg Future. Slat down, futures up, 9 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: nine equities churning. But look at the doubt twenty one thousand, 10 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: five to eight, and you weren't in a market because 11 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: the market, the economy, it was terrible. Things are terrible. 12 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: On Friday, you read four dooming gloom articles to get 13 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 1: you through the terrible weekend, to get to the terrible 14 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,279 Speaker 1: Monday where Drew Madis the stock market goes up again 15 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: because in your wonderful days a U B S with 16 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 1: more Harris you were right, then, you're right now It's 17 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: a resilient American economy. Can you link your g d 18 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: P optimism right over to the stock market Uh No, 19 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: but I think it's reflecting it. I mean, I think 20 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: when you look at the world today, you see a 21 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: moderate growth environment with moderate inflation, very low interest rates, uh, 22 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,839 Speaker 1: and very low volatility in the economy itself. And so 23 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: you know, when you look at the equity market, for example, uh, 24 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: you know, there's less volatility around everything. So you know, 25 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: you that's why the multiple I think keeps going up 26 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: is because people are like, well, you know, I'm not 27 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: gonna get six percent in terms of nominal growth. I'm 28 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: gonna get four. But I know it's a solid for 29 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 1: as opposed to six percent us OUR minus four. Let's 30 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: let's go back to original drumatics before we get to 31 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: the markets here, and that is the idea of justifying 32 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: two point eight or three percent g d P. Is 33 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: it a consumer we misjudge? Do we get an investment 34 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: buoyancy or does trade light up like a candle because 35 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: of dollar dynamics. What's gonna be the partial differential that 36 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: makes that happen. Well, so I think the consumer is 37 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: going to have a lot to do with it. Uh. 38 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: And I think we're going to see that investment cycle 39 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: begin because I think the thing that's being misjudged and misunderstood. 40 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: The most uh, and that everyone is getting wrong is 41 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: that productivity. Productivity is cyclically low. This is not a 42 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: structural story. This is a cyclical story and it's been 43 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 1: persistent because of the low rate environment we've been in. 44 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 1: This is a really important comment, folks. Let's dive deeper 45 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 1: into this. And this goes back to how any number 46 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: of Nobel laureates and frankly people that are truly acclaimed 47 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: thinking about efficiency of capital, efficial see of labor. In 48 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: this technological overlay, everybody focuses on technology. It's structural. The 49 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: world's gonna come to an end. You're saying, yeah, that's there, 50 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 1: but no, it's about a cyclical Dejanet Yellen force low 51 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: productivity because she kept rates low. I wouldn't say she 52 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: forced it, but if you think about what low rates 53 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: have done, low rates have effectively allowed companies that perhaps 54 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: should have gone out of business to stay in business. Uh. 55 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: And so every year that goes by, where that occurs, 56 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: and you have companies that should be getting churned because 57 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: they're they're cost of financing what they're trying to do. Uh. Oh, 58 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: come on, look at the free lunch. Well, they're staying 59 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: in business. And what that's doing is is it's taking 60 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: a percentage of the U S workforce and growing percentage 61 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: of the US workforce and keeping them at firms that 62 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: are not productive. They're not being churned out, and so 63 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: we're not getting the turnover in the labor market that 64 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: puts people to their most efficient use and best use. 65 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: So it's not good for the employees. It hurts their 66 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: wages actually because low productivity firms can't afford to pay 67 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: better um, but they can if they're staying in business. 68 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 1: A greater and greater percentage of the York's US workforce 69 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: is working at these firms that are not productive, and 70 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: then we wonder why US productivity is. But then the 71 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: review this These are really important comments, folks, whether you 72 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 1: agree or not with Mr Madison that life the first 73 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 1: order condition for the FED is to provide financial stability 74 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 1: at lowered rates to save the banks, except we all 75 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 1: know the story the second order condition. Are these knock 76 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: on effects of the first order condition? What's the lead 77 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: knock on effect right now of Bill Gross's financial repression 78 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: or the idea of looking at a negative two year 79 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 1: yield since time real to year yield since time began. 80 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 1: What's the key second order effect? Uh, A very low 81 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: level of economic volatility, which is bad for the economy 82 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: we need as a country. The US has always thrived 83 00:04:56,120 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: in creative destruction. UH. And without creative destruction, we do 84 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 1: not get to our efficient operating level. And there's another 85 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:08,840 Speaker 1: reason why perhaps productivity might be too low, which is 86 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: that we are not operating at the right UH. If 87 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: you think of the economy as an engine where we 88 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 1: don't have the RPMs up high enough with the within 89 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: within the r p ms of the U S economy, 90 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: how many rate rises changes the oil in the tank? 91 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: So maybe we've got a Velveolin moment? Can we does 92 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: Velveolan sponsor us under the under the star under the 93 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 1: Texico sign something like that? But but but that was 94 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: a Midwest moment, folks, excuse me there. But the basic 95 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: idea we got to get the oil in the engine. 96 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:40,359 Speaker 1: How many rate increases does it take to get the 97 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: oil in the engine? I think you have to get 98 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 1: to a more normal level. I also think the balance 99 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: sheet has something to do with it. So I don't 100 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: have the answer for that because I think it's a 101 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: mix of the two. But I do think the FED 102 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: is moving in the right direction, which is towards higher 103 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 1: FED funds rates, towards normalizing the balance sheet. Uh. And 104 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: I would say that, you know, one of the things 105 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 1: that concerns me is this idea that the balance sheet 106 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: is going to remain excessively enlarged for an extraordinary period 107 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: of time and that we don't have to return to 108 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: kind of a more historically normal size balance sheet. I 109 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: think in the end, the FED will have to retreat 110 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: from that and move back towards a more normal balance sheet, 111 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: which is somewhere in the order of six to seven 112 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: percent nominally. How long is it gonna take? Because when 113 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: I spoke with the President Caplain of the Dallas FED, 114 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: he kept moving his hand. For those of you who 115 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 1: can see this on radio, I'm moving my hand down, 116 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: and he was moving it out years. I mean, he 117 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: was on the edge of decades. Are you suggesting this 118 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: is all gonna happen a lot quicker? I think it's 119 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: going to take a decade. On the balance sheet, uh. 120 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: And on interest rates, I'm not sure we'll have a 121 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: decade before the next before the next downturn. But I 122 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 1: do think we've got a few years, and I think 123 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: by the time we get there, we will have rates 124 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: in a more reasonable place. What what does what does 125 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: the low I want to do? The MetLife angle, the 126 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: institutional angle here in our next section, but in this section, 127 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 1: what does this world we're in that we've created do 128 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: for investors and savers mean? Forget about somebody who wants 129 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: to buy six thousand shares of Amazon to make a 130 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: quick hitoff whole foods to mom and pop out there, 131 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: what does this environment mean? Well, for people who are 132 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: approaching retirement, they're saving more. And so this is something 133 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: that we've looked at a lot. If you look at 134 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 1: ten year yields versus savings rates, the relationship is not linear, 135 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: meaning that below a certain interest rate, people save more, 136 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: and above a certain interest rate people save more. When 137 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: it's above it, they're saving because they think the economy 138 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: is going to go into recession. There's this fear out there. 139 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: Below a certain interest rate, there the fear is that 140 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to have enough for 141 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: retirement to actually meet their their income needs and retirement, 142 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 1: so they save more. So in order to kind of 143 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: get people to save less and to boost economic spending 144 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: in the economy, you actually need to move rates up. 145 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: Well maybe that's a paradox and the paradox to take 146 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: it back to econ one oh one. But there's a 147 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: lot of ducks. But how how many rate increases are 148 00:07:55,280 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: we too normal? Within this really interesting general discussion. I 149 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: mean I would say three. I think he would be 150 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: on the verge of normal with another three or so. Yes. Uh, 151 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: you know historically the FED saw anything below one is abnormal. Uh, 152 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: and then obviously the crisis happened, they went to zero. Um. 153 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: I think once you're above one, you're in a better spot. Uh. 154 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: You know, something on the closer to three in my 155 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: mind is better than two. But I'll take two and 156 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: kind of pinch. You know what's great Aboutdrew maddisas he 157 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 1: brings the entire entourage from MetLife with him, including a 158 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: general council. He's gonna need his general counsel. And the 159 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: next section as we talk about UH insurance portfolios and 160 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 1: actual reial assumption, something I know he spends a lot 161 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 1: of time on as well. We got a little geeki 162 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: there for Global wall Streets where with Drew Maddis of MetLife, 163 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: drew insurance companies of all flavors, including his venerable is 164 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 1: the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company have to worry about meeting 165 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: the actuarial assumption that has been challenging since his financial 166 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: crisis began. Is there light at the end of at 167 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: the extraally real tunnel? Well, I mean, you know, with 168 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,319 Speaker 1: you know, we haven't had rates move up to the 169 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 1: way we would have liked. My forecast for the end 170 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,959 Speaker 1: of year tenure is to seventy five. I still think 171 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: we can get there. You know, if you look at 172 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: it from a kind of a monthly move perspective, you're 173 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: looking at eight basis points a month, which is not unreasonable, 174 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: particularly given some of the moves we've seen around some 175 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: of the bigger events. Uh. But yes, it's challenging, and 176 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: that's why we have, uh, you know, we have a 177 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: very solid um team. We have hundreds of people met 178 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 1: Life Investment Management working uh to kind of you know, 179 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: hit our hit our targets. Uh, and we have a 180 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: lot of expertise in areas that that kind of enable 181 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,199 Speaker 1: us to invest in places you know that that can 182 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: help us as well. So um, you know, uh, you know, 183 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: higher rates would be helpful, but you know, we can 184 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: we can get through without them, our bonds and stocks 185 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: correlated right now? Uh? You know, um, yes, but I 186 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: think you know, fundamentals are actually now beginning to be 187 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: the driver. So one of the things we've created is 188 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 1: as a proprietary index of um of fundamental activity. And 189 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: what we see is that fundamentals now are driving things, 190 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: not kind of the shock factors anymore. Uh. And so 191 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 1: we watch this index that we've created to give us 192 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: a sense of whether that's beginning to move or not. Uh. 193 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: And right now, at least our fundamental index is telling 194 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 1: us that fundamentals are driving things. And then we have 195 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: actually underlying fundamental indicase for credit, real state, uh, the consumer, 196 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: and all of those are suggesting pretty much a goldilocks 197 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: not too hot, not too cold environment. I like the 198 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 1: goldilocks ideas of goldilocks in the oil patch. I meant 199 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: three seven percent Bob Moon saying it's two move. We 200 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: had to readjust from a hundred down to forty at 201 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: one point, I would suggest we cleared most of the market, right. Uh. 202 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: You know, I think so, I think you know, the 203 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: you know, the the key really for me when when 204 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: we think about oil, uh, in the context of the 205 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: U S at least is it um because the US 206 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,679 Speaker 1: has become this kind of swing producer. Whatever we thought 207 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: the peak oil price was that you could get to 208 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: maybe ten or fifteen years ago, that number has got 209 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: to be lower. And so when you look at the 210 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 1: average price that you can expect over the next ten years, 211 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 1: it's something divided by two, right, and so uh, it's 212 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: you know, it's lower than it would have been if 213 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 1: you asked the same question fifteen or twenty years ago. 214 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: And for me, that's the key feature of kind of 215 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: the U S oil revolution. Dumas thank you so much, 216 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: with met Life, their chief market strategist. It's a huge responsibility, 217 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 1: folks to try to gauge equities, bonds, currencies, commodities and 218 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: economics across the liabilities of any given insurance company. There, 219 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 1: what short term it that life? Five years? We have 220 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 1: a very long run perspective. Come on, give me an answer. 221 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 1: What short term? Ten years? You're trying to get on fired? Yeah, 222 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: well we're not. The General Council's hanging on every syllable. 223 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: Five of years. I mean, seriously, five years a short 224 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,719 Speaker 1: term for an insurance company. We we make investments, We 225 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: are a liability driven investor, and that means we make 226 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 1: investments for the long term. There he is with the 227 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: c y a answer. Drew Maddis of MetLife, thank you 228 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: so much worldwide. This is Bloomberg right now with as 229 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 1: William Priest for a brief time, as we await a 230 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: conversation with a Secretary of Treasury. William Priest wrote an 231 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: iconic book. It was instantly classic and has stayed that 232 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: that's hard to do on shareholder yield. A number of 233 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 1: years ago. This would be the measurement and cash flow, 234 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: which would we see more of in the next five 235 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: or ten years, dividend growth or share buybacks, which has 236 00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: the high ground now in terms of use of cash. 237 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: I think what's gonna happen is, first of all, you 238 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: have to take one step back and say should I 239 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: reinvest or should I return capital? What's critical to that 240 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: is can you earn a premium over your cost of capital? 241 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 1: If you can indeed reinvest at a premium over your 242 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: cost of capital, you should reinvest or require But for 243 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: many companies, particularly large ones, that's almost impossible. So they 244 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: will return much of that cash to the owners of 245 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,079 Speaker 1: the business, and they will do that either through cash 246 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: buy backs or debt paid down. From a tax standpoint, 247 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: buy backs are favorite. Wall Street doesn't always treat buy 248 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: backs with the same value. It depends on the reason. 249 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: If the reason for the buy back is to get 250 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: management paid because earnings for share or hire and they 251 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 1: get a bonus, that's a misuse of cash flow. But 252 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 1: in theory they are identical. So and and if you 253 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: don't want to talk about this bill, we know each 254 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 1: other so well that if you want to step aside 255 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: on this, IBM is financial engineering. They basically did William 256 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: Priest one oh one the first four pages of their 257 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: annual report for years and years and years and years, 258 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: and then the show game broke? Did you own IBM? 259 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 1: As they were financially engineering their way to oblivion. We 260 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: have been negative on IBM for years. They had an 261 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: up quarter. Why have been negative? No revenue growth? No 262 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: revenue growth from umpty ump quarters. Uh, there are too 263 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: many games you can play with a counting, and many 264 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: many years ago, it was uh, Louis when lou rock 265 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: Hiser Show was on, LOUI asked me a question. Because 266 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: I'm I'm a CPO. My background includes that at one 267 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: point I was an accountant. We won't hold that against you. Well, 268 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: he asked me a question. It was one of the 269 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 1: great straight lines I was ever given. Uh And he said, Bill, 270 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: being an accountant and being a c p A is 271 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: a helpful and being a security analyst or portfolio management. 272 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: And I basically said, well, Lou, you know, accounting is 273 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 1: a lot like a bathing suit. What it reveals is interesting, 274 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: but what it conceals is vital. And I think accounting 275 00:14:56,440 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: is a way to obfuscate truth. And it's gotten worse 276 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: and worse as you've gone through time. These sensors just 277 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: gagged me here at surveillance. So I can't respond, okay 278 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: to that. Mr Rukeyser could respond to that, and in 279 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: the modern day even Luu Keiser couldn't respond to the 280 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: bathing suit priest analogy? Am I doing? Okay? John? Yeah, 281 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 1: that whole really you got the shovel on. Think the 282 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: whole ever deeper? Okay? But IBM, seriously here you look 283 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: at the IBM pages. Everybody thinks it's c P A 284 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: c F A one oh one. And you're saying the 285 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: revenue growth isn't there? Amazon has revenue growth than God is. 286 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: Mr Bezos did he read William priest, I have no idea. 287 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: Why not Why can't you look at why can't you? 288 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: You should? Well, well, who do we have on yesterday? Uh? 289 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: That was wonderful about this. Uh David Rubinstein saying he 290 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: made the same mistake you made, and you know, the 291 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: underestimated Bezos she got revenue growth of Amazon. Does that 292 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 1: count towards shareholder yield? I think at the end of 293 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: the day, you're going to look at does the entity 294 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 1: generate cash flow? All businesses are driven ultimately by their 295 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: ability to generate cash flow. Now, we have a definition 296 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: for free cash flow, which essentially indicates that the definition 297 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: that we use, it's the cash available for distribution to 298 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: shareholders after all planned capitals, adpenditures, and all cash taxes. 299 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 1: So what Bezos has done is essentially say, you know what, 300 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: I can reinvest my capital at a higher than my 301 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: cost of capital, which has been true in this era 302 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: we've been in where the cost of capital is following 303 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: year after year after year. So this is the money question, folks. 304 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: This is critically important as well. This is so important. 305 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: He's got a game going and like Brian Roberts ad Comcast, 306 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: someday you shift Comcast brilliantly shifted from CAPEX development over 307 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: to use the cash to shareholders to great advantage. Do 308 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: you believe Jeff Bezos can shift from revenue high return 309 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 1: new businesses to a more mature business X number of 310 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: years down the road. I jury is out, but I 311 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 1: would say probably can. But right now he just looks 312 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: at He is a major disruptor in business today. You 313 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,120 Speaker 1: don't want to be on the other side of what 314 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: he's doing. It's too disruptive. Brunt you by Bank of 315 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: America Mary Lynch. With virtual reality, virtually everything will change. 316 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: Discover opportunities in a transforming world be of a mL 317 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: dot Com, slash VR, Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. 318 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to our viewers around the world, our listeners on 319 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Grady as well. I'm joined by the seventy seventh 320 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 1: Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Monition. Here uh the Gaylord 321 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,479 Speaker 1: Resort a South Washington. See. Thank you very much. Thank you. 322 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 1: You become familiar with the idiosyncrasies of this town, the 323 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: strange customs you're about to become familiar with another, that 324 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: is the semi regular debate about the debt limit. When 325 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: are we going to get it. How how soon is 326 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: that debate going to happen? Follow Let me just say 327 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: we're already having the discussion on it, and I don't 328 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: think it's a debate. Let me be clear. I think 329 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: everybody realizes we need to raise the debt ceiling. The 330 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: government debt is the most important credit in the world 331 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: and where the reserve currency. So this is just a 332 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: little bit of a process. That's the government process of 333 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 1: how we go about and one of the things I 334 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 1: think we think about over time is changing this process. 335 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 1: It should be once we've spent the money that the 336 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 1: debt limit goes along with the commitment to spend. Is 337 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 1: it the beginning of September when you think we we 338 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 1: hit that limit? Is it later in the month. Do 339 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: you have a specific date at this point? We constantly 340 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: review these numbers internally. UM, I don't want to give 341 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: exact projections. As I've said, I've encouraged Congress to act 342 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: before they leave for the summer, but we do have 343 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 1: enough money to get us through September and case they 344 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: don't back in January. Before you were confirmed, you spoke 345 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: against prioritization of debt payments. Now that you've been on 346 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 1: the job, You're familiar with the office and the way 347 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: things work here in Washington. Do you still feel that way? 348 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: Are you against prioritization? Let me just say I think 349 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: that the Congress should raise the debt ceiling so that 350 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 1: we don't have to talk about prioritization. That's really the focus. 351 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: We should be paying our bills when they're due, and 352 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 1: we shouldn't put the government at risk. There hasn't been 353 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: what I would call a course of consensus around this issue. 354 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: And a few others within the administration. There were some 355 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: of your colleagues who are calling for a clean raise 356 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: of the debt limit, through others who think it should 357 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: be tethered to spending cuts. What's it going to take 358 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,680 Speaker 1: to get to unanimity on this issue? And others within 359 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 1: the within the administration. Well, I think we have a 360 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: general understanding within the administration and we're clear on that, 361 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 1: and we're working with Congress. This is really up to 362 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 1: Congress to raise the debt limit, and again it's something 363 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 1: I'm confident that they'll do. Before we get to a point. 364 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 1: That's critical on the issue of unanimity is the White 365 00:19:58,119 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 1: House saying there is a date by which we will 366 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 1: a tax reform proposal from the White House. Are you 367 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: speaking with one voice on that issue? Well, I think 368 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 1: we've been pretty consistent and saying we're working every week 369 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: very closely with the House and the Senate to have 370 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 1: a joint plan when we come out, and the idea 371 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: is to get us all on the same page. So 372 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:22,120 Speaker 1: when we release the combined plan, it's gonna get passed, 373 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: and it's going to get passed by the House and 374 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: the Senate and the President will sign it. And it's 375 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: our focus to get that done this year. It's critical 376 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: to the economy and we're working every day to get 377 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: that done. What's your relationship like with lawmakers on Capitol Hill? 378 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:35,919 Speaker 1: How have you found that being new to watching, being 379 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: new to this job. I think we're very good relationships 380 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: and uh, I think it's a team effort. I think 381 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: the good news is we understand what we want to do. 382 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 1: We want to get growth in this country. We want 383 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: to have tax reform. It hasn't been done in thirty years. 384 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: It's critical. We want to simplify personal taxes, we want 385 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: to create a middle income tax cut, and we want 386 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,639 Speaker 1: to make business taxes competitive. We have one of the 387 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: highest tax rates in the world, old with worldwide taxes 388 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 1: and deferral, which leads to trillions of dollars left off shore. 389 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: You bring up growth. I must say that's the thing 390 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: of this conference. I talked to maybe a half dozen 391 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 1: economists to every day, and almost without exception, they disagree 392 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: with the projections that you have that we can attain 393 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 1: three or four percent and growth in the near tow 394 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 1: to medium term. What are you seeing that they're not? Well? Again, 395 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: I just want to put this in perspective. When Obama 396 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: came into office, he was projecting over four economic growth. 397 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 1: We obviously haven't tag necked. We've had one of the 398 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 1: lowest growth rates in modern history, and we're just not 399 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 1: going to be satisfied with two percent growth. We're gonna 400 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,439 Speaker 1: work every day in this administration and do everything we 401 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 1: possibly can to unlock the economic capital to create jobs, 402 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: to create better wages, and get growth above three percent. 403 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: We're committed to doing that. You're here among and talking 404 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 1: to foreign investors. Let me ask you about Siphias. You've 405 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: said your decisions on foreign investment are based largely on 406 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: national security. That's the cornerstone. Would you be in favor 407 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: of an economics benefit test it for investment in the 408 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: U S Well, let me just say they're not largely 409 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: on national security. They're completely on national security, and no 410 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: I I favor sifious to be for national security. There's 411 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 1: other things we can do to make sure that we 412 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 1: are economically competitive. But the US is one of the 413 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,199 Speaker 1: freest trading markets in the world. It's one of the 414 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: freest investment markets in the world. We welcome foreign investors 415 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 1: to invest here, and we just want to make sure 416 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: we get treated the same way abroad. That's really our focus. 417 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,440 Speaker 1: You've talked about a strong dollar and a dependable dollar. 418 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 1: Not to get into the semantics here, but what's the 419 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: difference between the two. How do you define a dependable dollar. Well, again, 420 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 1: the dollar is the reserve currency the world. Um, Again, 421 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,960 Speaker 1: it's not our focus where the dollar is in the 422 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: short term. There's obviously certain negative aspects of a strong 423 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 1: dollar as it relates to our exports. But on the 424 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 1: other hand, the strong dollar is a vote of confidence 425 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: in the US economy and the Trump administration, similarly to 426 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: what is going on with the stock market. So this 427 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: is one of the most important economic investment opportunities the 428 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: US and we're seeing a lot of attractions here and 429 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: that's a lot about what this conference is today on 430 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: the issue of investment. A few months back, you're talking 431 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 1: to a colleague of mine out in l a at 432 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 1: the Milk and Conference, and you suggested that ultra long 433 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 1: bonds absolutely made a sense. Do you still believe that? 434 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: Are you walking back from that a little bit in 435 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 1: la I'm not. I'm not walking back again. It's something 436 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: that we're very seriously considering. UM. I do think it's 437 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: a tool that the government should strongly consider, and we're 438 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 1: reaching out through the Borrowing Committee and investors to to 439 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 1: see what the demand is. I mean, what we don't 440 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 1: want to do is create a program that's a completely 441 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: one off program. We want to see if it would 442 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: be an important part of our borrowing capabilities. In the past, 443 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: people in your position have been advisors to the President 444 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: on picking future chairs of the Federal Reserve? Has the 445 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 1: presidents solicited your advice on who the next FED chair 446 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,639 Speaker 1: should be? Well on all the financial regulatory positions. Gary 447 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: Koon and I are working very closely together in making 448 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 1: recommendations to the President so that he he and I 449 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 1: have have interviewed all the people and have made joint 450 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: recommendations to the President. What do you think constitutes a 451 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: good FED chair? In other words, broadly speaking, what do 452 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 1: you what do you think the president should be looking 453 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,160 Speaker 1: for gonna in a FED share this next turn, Well, 454 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: let me just say we haven't made any decisions yet 455 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: on the FED chair um whether we're gonna have a 456 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 1: new one or we're not going to have a new one, 457 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 1: and uh, we'll be working closely together with the President 458 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: as we consider all the issues. What is your relationship 459 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: like with that, Mr Cone? We we hear so much 460 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: about the palace intrigue, reports of division or discord within 461 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,439 Speaker 1: within the White House. What's your sense of how the 462 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,400 Speaker 1: economic team is working, how it's working together. I think 463 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 1: the Economic team couldn't be working better together. And that's 464 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 1: a combination of myself, Gary Cohne, Wilbert Ross, It's Bob 465 00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:54,080 Speaker 1: Leitheiser on trade, it's mcmilvany on the budget. We meet constantly, 466 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: and Uh, I think we couldn't be working together. As 467 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: it relates to Gary and I, he and he and 468 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,080 Speaker 1: I have known each other for a very long in 469 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 1: period of time and we're worked together very closely in 470 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 1: the past otto warm beer has passed away from the 471 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: twenty two year old student who was in North Korea 472 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 1: from more than a year. The President has passed along 473 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: his condolences and said that he's reaffirming his opposition to 474 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,880 Speaker 1: the policies of the North Korean regime. What more can 475 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: you do? We've seen the Treasury Department deploy and implement 476 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,440 Speaker 1: sanctions against North Korea. As you react to this news 477 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 1: and think about steps forward, are there more tools in 478 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 1: the Treasury Department's tool kit when it comes to sanctions. Well, 479 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 1: let me first say it's a it's a very unfortunate situation, 480 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 1: and I also pass on my condolences to his family. Uh. 481 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,399 Speaker 1: He was treated very poorly and nobody should be treated 482 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 1: like that. And as we've said before, we are firmly 483 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: committed at Treasury to use all our powers to put 484 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 1: sanctions on North Korea and work with our allies to 485 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: stop what they're doing. And that's the missile testing, the 486 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: nuclear testing. Um this is something we're working very closely 487 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,840 Speaker 1: with our allies on. I spoke with your predecessor about sanctions. 488 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,679 Speaker 1: It was something he was very we sted in and 489 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,479 Speaker 1: worked hard to raise the status of that's a policy 490 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 1: tool implementing sanctions in the in the realm of national security. 491 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: Do you see your sanctions policy as an extension of that. 492 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: Are you doing anything differently than Secretary louis doing when 493 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 1: it comes to sanctions, Well, let me just comment. You know, 494 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 1: sanctions have been around for a long period of time, 495 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:23,120 Speaker 1: and specifically post nine eleven. They are a very important 496 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 1: tool for policy makers. So we will continue to use 497 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 1: sanctions to the maximum amount that we can. And I 498 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 1: constantly meet with Secretary Tillerson and Secretary Matters and at 499 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,479 Speaker 1: the National Security Council. This is one of the tools 500 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 1: we talk about and all of our foreign policy objectives. 501 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 1: I don't know if you've opened your mail from yesterday, 502 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: but a number of Congressman, Republicans Democrats wrote you about 503 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: Rose and Potential Investing are becoming a controlling investor of 504 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 1: SITCO given the status of that company, raising concerns about 505 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 1: what that might mean for sanctions, having a company with 506 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 1: so much infrastructure in the U S under Russian control? 507 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: Are you concerned about that as well? Well? First of all, 508 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: I do read my math because again late yesterday, Um, 509 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: you know I can't comment on any specific cases and Siphius, 510 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 1: but I can assure them and I can assure others. 511 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 1: I take my role as chair of Cephius very seriously. 512 00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 1: We will use Ciphius solely for the purposes of protecting 513 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: our national security, and any transaction that's within our jurisdiction 514 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 1: we will look at very careful. Like just the last 515 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 1: question here about an op ed that Gary Code and 516 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: Aatrian McMaster read for The Wall Street Journal on the 517 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 1: arena seeing the world community as less of a community, 518 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 1: as a place where countries are competing against one another 519 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 1: in that space. What's what's the what's the role of 520 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 1: multi ladder institutions. Oh, I think there's a significant role. 521 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's a lot of common objectives 522 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 1: that we have. I think whether it's the World Bank, 523 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 1: whether it's the I m F or or others, there's 524 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 1: definitely a role for us, working with our allies with 525 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,920 Speaker 1: these institutions to to create fixes for problems around the world. 526 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: I think, as you know, kind of we've been worked 527 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: being with the Greeks on the dead crisis. They are 528 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 1: we're pleased that we've come to an agreement, or the 529 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 1: Europeans have come to an agreement. Then I worked closely 530 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 1: with the I m F and with our partners. Although 531 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: this is primarily a European issue, we wanted to make 532 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 1: sure that this was done. And uh, we're very pleased 533 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 1: with the I m f S role in those negotiations, 534 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 1: sectual menation. Thank you very much, The seventy seventh Secretary 535 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: of the Treasury back to you. This is a great pleasure, 536 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 1: great great pleasure. This is truly one of the nation's leaders. 537 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: I'm trying to get your kids to learn a multiplication, 538 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: label tables and actually get through trigonometry in high school. 539 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 1: Here's what you need to know. He was what was 540 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 1: called a Westinghouse scholar. This is a few years ago, 541 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: before Princeton, before this, before that, everybody who was cool 542 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 1: didn't want to do what you and I did, which 543 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 1: is a lot of science and a lot of math, 544 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 1: and you took a trophy in high School's a Westinghouse scholar. 545 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 1: It's like the movie October Sky. It's a nerd on 546 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: the block. How did you get through the social impact 547 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 1: of math and science where everybody said what Tom Layton did, 548 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 1: that's not cool. Well, I just love math and science, 549 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 1: so I had a lot of fun doing it and uh, 550 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 1: there are a few other kids. At the time, there 551 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 1: were there were a few others, but there was also 552 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: that social tension of that's not cool what Tom Layton 553 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 1: of acomy is doing. That's not cool. Yeah, no, that's true, 554 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 1: and we we faced that same challenge today. I think 555 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 1: in terms of what is emphasized and um, it is 556 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 1: a challenge I think for the country with with within 557 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 1: this and within your public service. Along with the success 558 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 1: of acama ie and and what you've done in the 559 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 1: the internet is the idea of the rigor of mathematics. 560 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: How do we help kids get through the tough moments 561 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 1: the rigor where you're looking at signed, co sign, tangent 562 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 1: and there's other three functions on the other how do 563 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 1: we get through the rigor? You know? I think one 564 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: key is to make math be interesting. I and to 565 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 1: show kids what it can be used to do. Uh, 566 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 1: you know, take search, that's all math, and you know, 567 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 1: I think when you expose it to kids in the 568 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 1: right way, show them the magic of math, of power 569 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: of math, that goes a long way to increasing interest. 570 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,120 Speaker 1: Later on. Tom Layton, of course, is a co founder 571 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 1: of Amy Technologies in the Internet, in video and all 572 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 1: a lot of the nuts and bolts of how what 573 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 1: we take for granted happens every day. I've got about 574 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: eight themes to go with you, but I'm gonna go 575 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,480 Speaker 1: right now to the M and A market of Silicon Valley, 576 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 1: which is we extrapolate out valuations of tech up starts. 577 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 1: This didn't happen when ak am I was around. You 578 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 1: didn't get money come in and then they'd say it's 579 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 1: a forty two billion dollar company, and that's the vogue 580 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: right now. How did this begin to happen? Like with Uber? 581 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 1: How do we extrapolate Uber into an umpteen billion dollar company? Well, 582 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 1: we act shliakam I went through that. Did you go through? 583 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: We did? We started and in nine did one of 584 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: the largest I p O s ever and did get 585 00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 1: a very high got up to about thirty five billion 586 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:18,800 Speaker 1: shot chart Luncher. Yeah. And then of course reality does 587 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 1: set in and during the bubble bursting had a tremendous crash. 588 00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 1: We've lost you know, seven one in value and you 589 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 1: know managed through a lot of hard work from very 590 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 1: talented employees to survive that and then grow into a 591 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 1: very profitable, uh and fast growing company today. Yeah, the 592 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 1: rate to return folks off the tobacco of two thousand. 593 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 1: One of them is jaw dropping and really speaks. It's 594 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 1: pretty much a linear function of of double digit excellence 595 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: and shareholder return. I guess I got to go to 596 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 1: the video question. I perceived video on the Internet as 597 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 1: a kid's domain. Kids love it. We all know that. 598 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I get all the statistics. Do adults want video? Oh? 599 00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 1: I think so. And you know, kids grow up and 600 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: you to doing some of the same things as when 601 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 1: they were kids. So we see the video coming over 602 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: the top as being increasing. Uh And ultimately I think 603 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 1: in the long run, most all video will be over. 604 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 1: I P. It'll be over, I P. But within the 605 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: video that you're the backbone of, there's got to I 606 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 1: get the generational shift that the young kids today on YouTube, etcetera. 607 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 1: Will use video more. Do you see evidence now that 608 00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 1: adults want video? In journalism, it's a real debate. Yes. 609 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 1: Now you see the video traffic and share substantially increasing. 610 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 1: We see the traffic on akama I, you know, growing 611 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 1: at very substantial rates. And I do think and you 612 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,120 Speaker 1: talk to the world's major broadcasting executives, and I think 613 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 1: now they all believe that the large majority of video 614 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 1: watching across you know, the globe will be digital and 615 00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 1: that includes adults. Of course, how do you retain employees today? 616 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 1: I don't know what the headcount is it ACoM, but 617 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,479 Speaker 1: you got the young upstarts gonna they think they know 618 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: everything and you're like, yeah, please is come on? How 619 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:05,600 Speaker 1: do you retain that that constructive ego of those bright 620 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 1: kids today? Well, we work hard to make OKAM would 621 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 1: be a great place to work. Part of that is 622 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:15,240 Speaker 1: having a really innovative culture with teamwork. You know, it's 623 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,000 Speaker 1: what matters that Akama is the quality of the idea, 624 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,240 Speaker 1: not the rank of the person who said it. Uh, 625 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 1: you know, and that really is very helpful and to 626 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,560 Speaker 1: grow innovation. And you get a lot of innovation from 627 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: folks coming out of school, uh, you know that have 628 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,240 Speaker 1: fresh ways of looking at things, and that's that's vital 629 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 1: for engineering and mathematics is a is an area where 630 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 1: you love to start projects and you keep them going 631 00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 1: way too long. How do you do with Christiansen talks 632 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 1: about which is disrupt the failed projects? How do you 633 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 1: get rid of failed projects? That it's always hard to 634 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 1: shut something down and you know we're we're not perfect 635 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,560 Speaker 1: aut it either. But you know, in order to be 636 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,560 Speaker 1: able to continue to fund innovation or new ideas, you 637 00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:01,840 Speaker 1: do have to terminate objects that you know, at one 638 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,440 Speaker 1: point seemed like they had a lot of promise but 639 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,680 Speaker 1: no longer do and that you've invested in you say, okay, 640 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 1: that one didn't work out. You know, innovation is always 641 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 1: a high risk endeavor and most ideas are not going 642 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,960 Speaker 1: to work out, and you do need the discipline to 643 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,399 Speaker 1: shut him down when it's when that becomes clear. One 644 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 1: final question, did ad more Rick Over come over for dinner? 645 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,359 Speaker 1: Your father knew ad Rick Over? This is for those 646 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,439 Speaker 1: of you younger, this was an extraordinary and unique individual. 647 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,879 Speaker 1: How every navy did ad more Rick Over come over 648 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,919 Speaker 1: for dinner? Yes, many times, and he was an extraordinary 649 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 1: human being. He was wound up like a top. He 650 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 1: made the submarines go, didn't he? He did? And uh, 651 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: you know, I had the benefit of growing up in 652 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,919 Speaker 1: a home where science was really important. My dad worked 653 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 1: very closely with add more rick Over and uh, you know, 654 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 1: very hard working man. This has been great. Thomas Layton 655 00:34:52,640 --> 00:35:03,920 Speaker 1: back and I thank you so much thanks for listening 656 00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:08,319 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 657 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:13,760 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 658 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,399 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David Gura is at 659 00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:22,359 Speaker 1: David Gura. Before the podcast, you could always catch us worldwide. 660 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:36,880 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio. Runt You by Bank of America Mary Lynch. 661 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:42,640 Speaker 1: With virtual reality, virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in 662 00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:47,280 Speaker 1: a transforming world. VI of a mL dot Com slash Vr, 663 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 1: Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated