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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Saturday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt to follow me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros to follow Betting Pros, bet MGM, the offer

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Speaker 1: and the Tel sponsor this podcast ten bucks one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty bucks automatically in your account with a new

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Speaker 1: account with that promo code Juice one fifty when you

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Speaker 1: set up for a new account at bet MGM.

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Speaker 2: And today maybe a good day to do it.

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Speaker 1: I've got six bets going today for you, guys, six,

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Speaker 1: so we're going to get right to it. I told

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Speaker 1: you it was going to be a little bit heavier

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Speaker 1: than normal. We've gone two and two, but a winning

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Speaker 1: day because of the one unit play one one in one,

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Speaker 1: winning day because of the one unit play and one

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Speaker 1: and two down the Juice. Slightly losing day, but the

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Speaker 1: one unit on the under for Dallas again that Dallas

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Speaker 1: under at home comes and that has been absolute cash

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Speaker 1: cow for us here on the Daily Juice. It's been

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Speaker 1: a ton of fun betting that and winning on that.

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Speaker 1: Consistently winning on that. That was a lot of fun.

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Speaker 1: We had that. We talked a little bit about the

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Speaker 1: under unduel and Beid points yesterday on the Discord channel.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully you guys grabbed onto that.

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Speaker 1: He scored what sixteen points on that game, so never

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Speaker 1: even close to the twenty five and a half the

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Speaker 1: number that went out. That was an automatic underplay, so jump.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys jumped on that. So a good day

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Speaker 1: overall for me. But one in two officially on the pod.

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Speaker 1: But the one unit hit cut Cash is again for us.

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Speaker 1: So we've been doing well with these one unit bets.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually not gonna do that today because I've got

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Speaker 1: so many things in play I'm not going to attach

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Speaker 1: a one unit play to any of them. But I'm

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Speaker 1: going to run through the bets here and well, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to go as in depth as I normally

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Speaker 1: do because I don't want to be spending a ton

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Speaker 1: of time on every single one of these bets, and

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Speaker 1: you don't really want me to blabber on for on

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Speaker 1: and on about all these bets. So let's start with

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Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby. Congratulations, Happy welcome to Derby Day. Okay,

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Speaker 1: have a mint Julip for me, grab all and Elijah

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Speaker 1: Craig old fashioned, I'll be doing all of this. Here

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Speaker 1: are the bets. Okay, So if you want to have

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Speaker 1: some fun, my daughter has a bet that she has

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Speaker 1: put out that she likes a lot, and it's the two,

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Speaker 1: the ten in the nineteen sorry three, so the three,

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Speaker 1: the ten in the nineteens. You're gonna have some fun

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Speaker 1: with that three ten nineteen. I don't know that's gonna

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Speaker 1: come in, that's gonna hit or not, but that's just

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Speaker 1: a fun. What is official, however, and again these are

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Speaker 1: not my bets, so I'm sorry if the numbers on

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Speaker 1: the math is a little bit wonky. We're just gonna

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Speaker 1: do this for our accounting sake. This bet might wind

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Speaker 1: up costing a little bit more than this. But let's

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Speaker 1: just assign a quarter unit to this bet. Okay, a

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Speaker 1: quarter unit. It is a two dollars exacta. It's the

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Speaker 1: six horse, the twelve, the sixteen, the nineteen with the

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Speaker 1: three and the ten. Okay, so we're talking about having six, twelve, twelve,

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Speaker 1: sixteen or nineteen to win the race, and then second

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Speaker 1: place will be the.

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Speaker 2: Three or the ten.

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Speaker 1: Okay. That is a two dollars exacta. It is it

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Speaker 1: should be about you know, eight different bets if I'm

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Speaker 1: doing this correctly, but I'm not always a horse better.

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Speaker 2: So that's a bet that was given to me.

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Speaker 1: I'm making it official. I am placing this wager. We

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Speaker 1: hit this from the same person, guy named Sean Alvarez,

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Speaker 1: who's a great horse handicapper here in town Aaron, Vegas.

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Speaker 1: He gave this to me yesterday on my other show.

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Speaker 1: So I'm giving it to you guys because I am

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Speaker 1: making it. And if you want some action on the derby,

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Speaker 1: two dollars exacta, how you say it at the counter?

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Speaker 1: I want a two dollars exacta A six twelve, sixteen,

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Speaker 1: nineteen bet with three and ten. Okay, so you're boxing,

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Speaker 1: you're busy grabbing the three and the ten to come

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Speaker 1: in second place with the winning horse to be the six, twelve,

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Speaker 1: sixteen or nineteen horse.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: That is the first quarter unit bet for the Kentucky Derby,

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Speaker 1: the only bet officially for the Kentucky Derby. For accounting sake,

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Speaker 1: let's make it for a half a unit. So what

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Speaker 1: are we doing with the other quarter unit?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: Got to get it to a half a unit so

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Speaker 1: we can play it out. I am taking the bait.

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Speaker 1: I am going to throw a hail Mary on Michael

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Speaker 1: Chandler to lose to Tony Ferguson. Big favorite, Chandler is younger.

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Speaker 1: Chandler is the guy the company wants to win the fight.

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Speaker 1: Michael Chandler has lost his last two fights. However, Michael

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Speaker 1: Chandler does not like getting hit. Look, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Gonzala, Sorry,

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Speaker 1: Tony Ferguson is a warrior. He's really pissed off and

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Speaker 1: really mad. He's lost his last three fights. A lot

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Speaker 1: of people are saying he's done. I don't know, man.

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Speaker 1: You put the elites, the greats, backs against the wall

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Speaker 1: and they've got to prove something. I mean, for all

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Speaker 1: the talk that Tony Ferguson has done this week about

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Speaker 1: the company and not paying fighters what they're worth, Look,

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Speaker 1: the line is disrespectful. Okay, he should not be a

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Speaker 1: three to one dog. This is a much closer fight

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Speaker 1: than that. In my opinion, this is a value bet.

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Speaker 1: I might be dead wrong. You're gonna see everyone take Chandler.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw a quarter unit down. Nothing too serious,

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Speaker 1: but at plus three hundred, Tony Ferguson to beat Michael

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Speaker 1: Chandler that's where the other quarter unit is going. Take

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Speaker 1: Ferguson plus three hundred to win against Michael Chandler. Now

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Speaker 1: the main event. I was gonna bet Jeleis Olivera, but

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Speaker 1: this weight controversy has me totally off the fight, completely

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Speaker 1: off of it. It's too crazy the fact that Olivera

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Speaker 1: can win the fight and not keep his belt. He's

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Speaker 1: already lost his belt. What does that do to a

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Speaker 1: fighter psychologically? He weighed in at one fifty five twice

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Speaker 1: before going to the main scale, where he waited at

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Speaker 1: one fifty five and a half. Which scale was wrong

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Speaker 1: the one he was using in the back or the

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Speaker 1: one that was being used officially. It's really strange. But

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Speaker 1: he missed weight, so Gaetschee can win and win the belt.

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Speaker 1: Ferguson camp sorry, Olivera cannot win the belt, so he

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Speaker 1: will become the number one contender. He will then go

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Speaker 1: and fight, most likely Connor McGregor for the belt. If

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Speaker 1: that's how it goes down. I still like Olvera to

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Speaker 1: win the fight. I don't think it was a major.

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Speaker 1: It's not like a major miss on the weight cut.

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Speaker 1: He's not like at one to sixty. But he came

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Speaker 1: in at one fifty five and a half. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what to do with the fight. Weightcut misses are

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Speaker 1: a big deal. We've never seen a champion miss weight

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Speaker 1: and get stripped like this in the UFC, so there's

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Speaker 1: no real precedent here. I lean Olivera not going to

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Speaker 1: bet it officially, just don't know what to do with it.

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Speaker 1: So those are the place for the UFC now other

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Speaker 1: combat sports. Canelo Alvarez up against a live fighter in Bevel. Look,

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Speaker 1: this dude has gone the distance his last six fights

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Speaker 1: gone through decisions. This dude is going to be tough.

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Speaker 1: He is a better version of Triple G. He can hit.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't have great knockout power however, though, but he's

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Speaker 1: a guy who wants to stand in the pocket in

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Speaker 1: exchange fight and exchange firefights. He wants to hit and

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Speaker 1: he's willing to be hit. Canelo tends to play with

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Speaker 1: his food a little bit. Okay, So if you want

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Speaker 1: to lay the minus two to ninety on this fight

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Speaker 1: to go more than ten and a half rounds, you

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Speaker 1: can want the fight to go in the distance, you

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Speaker 1: can bet that too. It's minus two fifteen you want

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Speaker 1: to bet on that. I don't see this fight ending

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Speaker 1: other than potentially a knockout for Canelo in the later

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Speaker 1: rounds round ten, eleven, twelve, definitely possible. It's what happened

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Speaker 1: with Covialev where where basically Canelo was taking a break

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Speaker 1: for the first where he's it's coasting for the first

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Speaker 1: five rounds, picked it up a little bit and then

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Speaker 1: started to hurt to the body with Coviallev and then

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Speaker 1: he finally was able to hit him into the body

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Speaker 1: and it got Covialev's attention, and when he went to

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Speaker 1: do it again, Covilev dropped the hands. Canelo came over

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Speaker 1: the top, hit, knockout, bam, fight over. Okay, that could

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Speaker 1: happen here with this fight, but this fight is for

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Speaker 1: bibbls WBA one seventy five pound belt. Nothing on the

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Speaker 1: line for Canelo here. If Canelo wins, however, coming up

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Speaker 1: in September here in Vegas for Mexican Independence Weekend, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see Canelo triple G three win here is a

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Speaker 1: big deal.

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Speaker 2: A draw. The only way.

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Speaker 1: The Canelo does not win this fight is if he

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Speaker 1: winds up with a draw or knocked out. I don't

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Speaker 1: believe Bibble could knock out Canelo. Okay, I just don't

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Speaker 1: believe it's possible. Canelo has never been knocked down in

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Speaker 1: his career. I don't believe this is the guy that's

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Speaker 1: going to do it with the punching power that he has. However,

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Speaker 1: this is where the triple G draw comes in. If

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see Canelo lose a fight on the cards,

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Speaker 1: it will be ruled a draw. Canelo Alvarez is worth

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Speaker 1: too much money here to Vegas. He cannot lose a

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Speaker 1: decision here in Vegas. Cannot happen. Okay, So plus eighteen

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Speaker 1: hundred is a great flyer bet. In my mind, could

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Speaker 1: be plus two thousand by the time you get to

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Speaker 1: the fight time. I don't mind it not making it official,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's a horrible bet. If Bibble's

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Speaker 1: gonna get to the cards and maybe win, it will

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Speaker 1: be ruled a draw. However, the official play is Canelo

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Speaker 1: Alvarez by decision at minus one forty. It's way too

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Speaker 1: juicy to bet ham. You want to put them in

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Speaker 1: a in a parlay today, Fine, you go ahead and

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Speaker 1: do that parlay. Canelo is gonna win the fight, okay,

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Speaker 1: So you want to go ahead and do that. Canelo

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Speaker 1: will be in everyone's parlays. The books are going to

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Speaker 1: be massive fans for Bivil. I just think the one

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Speaker 1: thing people are gonna bet, they're gonna bet by knockout.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna bet the under. I don't know if they're

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Speaker 1: going to come in and bet by decision, but it's

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Speaker 1: minus one forty. That's not that bad for a half

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Speaker 1: a unit. Play Canelo by decision over Bivil at minus

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Speaker 1: one forty for a half a unit. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: go to hockey before we end with basketball. The Panthers

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Speaker 1: and the Washington Capitals. Look, I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: a lot of goals here in this. Sorry, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: So this is excuse me, SI that this is going

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Speaker 1: to be Colorado in Nashville. Sorry, I switched that up.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna bet the over six and a half

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Speaker 1: in that we're we're betting Colorado and the Nashville Predators.

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Speaker 1: So the first game was seven to two, second game

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Speaker 1: was two to one. I think Game three is going

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Speaker 1: to more resemble game number one. The line is six

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Speaker 1: and a half here, and look, if you shop around

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Speaker 1: to me, you get to find some better some better juices.

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Speaker 1: But you know at DraftKings right now, it's minus six

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Speaker 1: and a half, minus one twenty for Colorado in Nashville.

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Speaker 1: Most books across the country are kind of mimicking that

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Speaker 1: here where you're gonna pay a little juice to the

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Speaker 1: over six.

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Speaker 2: And a half.

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Speaker 1: But I think game three is going to be like

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Speaker 1: I mentioned, a resemblance of game number one. In the

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Speaker 1: regular season five four five four five two six two,

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Speaker 1: every game went over between Nashville and the Predators, and

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Speaker 1: some of the games were just blowout six to two win,

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Speaker 1: but then five to two win for the Predators at home,

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Speaker 1: Preds five to four at home. They won both games

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Speaker 1: at home. This game is at home here, I expect goals, goals, goals,

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Speaker 1: high flying scoring action between Colorado and Nashville. I'm going

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Speaker 1: over six and a half goal for Colorado and Nashville

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Speaker 1: at minus one twenty for a half a unit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's go to the NBA playoffs. Let's start with Washington, sorry,

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Speaker 1: with Boston and Milwaukee. The total is two thirteen. Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: at home to the under is twenty three and twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Boston on the road is twenty two and twenty and

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Speaker 1: one to the over. But they're one in five over

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Speaker 1: the last five games. Last two games, both against Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: have gone under. Milwaukee is an under machine against the

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Speaker 1: Eastern Conference, thirty six and twenty three to the under.

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Speaker 1: Boston is thirty and twenty eight, also to the under.

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Speaker 1: These teams play slow in the books are trying to

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Speaker 1: find a basement. The last seven games for the Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: Bucks have gone under. Okay, seven and seven games. We've

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Speaker 1: got a two thirty under by fifty one points, two

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Speaker 1: twenty five under by one point five and a half under,

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Speaker 1: by thirty and a half points under, two nineteen and

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Speaker 1: a half by five and a half to seventeen and

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Speaker 1: a half under, by one and a half, two eighteen under,

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Speaker 1: by twenty eight, two sixteen under by twenty one.

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Speaker 2: We're down here at two thirteen.

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Speaker 1: The books are trying to find the basement, and I

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Speaker 1: don't think we're there just yet. I think this game

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Speaker 1: goes under Milwaukee and Boston under two thirteen for a

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Speaker 1: half a unit. I do lean Boston plus two. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I do lean the Celtics to win Game three. But

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Speaker 1: Ghanas is still honest, so I'm not comfortable going ahead

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Speaker 1: and making it official. Make it unofficial there with Boston

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Speaker 1: plus two, but under is official under two thirteen for

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Speaker 1: Boston and Milwaukee for a half a unit. And we

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Speaker 1: will end this long podcast with Memphis at Golden State

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Speaker 1: seven seven. This is crazy to me. It's so heavy

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Speaker 1: two twenty two, twenty five and a half for Memphis

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Speaker 1: in Golden State. It's really interesting to look at this

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Speaker 1: because Golden State has been such a crazy under machine.

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Speaker 2: But Memphis plays so fast. I lean under in this game. Okay.

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Speaker 1: At home, Golden State twenty five seventeen and two to

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Speaker 1: the under. On the road, Memphis is twenty two, twenty

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Speaker 1: and one to the over seven and three. Though over

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Speaker 1: the last ten for Golden State have gone over five

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Speaker 1: and five for the last ten for Memphis have gone

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Speaker 1: over against the Western Conference Golden State thirty one twenty

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Speaker 1: six and two to the under. So I do lean

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Speaker 1: under at two twenty five and a half, but seven

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Speaker 1: is really heavy, Okay, Memphis. In game one of this series,

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Speaker 1: Memphis was catching two and a half points and they

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Speaker 1: lost by one. In game two, they were catching one

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Speaker 1: and a half and they won by five.

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Speaker 2: They won a game.

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Speaker 1: So what are we doing with a seven point number here?

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Speaker 1: This seems to be a monster over reaction. And for

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Speaker 1: Golden State, they were fired by nine at home against Denver,

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Speaker 1: they won by four. Okay, at home against Denver, the

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Speaker 1: first two games they were laying six and laying seven.

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Speaker 1: They won by sixteen and they won by twenty. I

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Speaker 1: get that. But against Memphis this year at home, Memphis

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Speaker 1: is not gonna walk into this building and be someone

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Speaker 1: intimidated and be like, oh my gosh, I can't believe

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Speaker 1: we actually have to play on the road against you know,

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Speaker 1: against a you know, Golden State Warriors team is going

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Speaker 1: to just run through us, and we aren't gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to play the way we're normally, you know, expecting

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Speaker 1: ourselves to come out and play.

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Speaker 2: They played earlier in the year, real early on.

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Speaker 1: The twenty eighth of October, Memphis went to Golden State

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Speaker 1: laying Golden State laid six and they lost by three.

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Speaker 1: Memphis won the game outright, going on the road to them,

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Speaker 1: and then in the second game they laid five and

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Speaker 1: a half and they won by nine. But I just

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Speaker 1: think this Memphis team is live to win this game

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Speaker 1: and to be right there, plus seven, I'm taking the

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Speaker 1: dog here Memphis and job plus seven with their record

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Speaker 1: on the road twenty seven, sixteen and one ats for

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Speaker 1: the Memphis Grizzlies. If you want to talk about a

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Speaker 1: game in which I'm gonna say, like if I would

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Speaker 1: have made the one unit bet, this is the game

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Speaker 1: that I would have made it the one unit bet.

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Speaker 1: Memphis plus seven twenty seven sixteen and one ats. Now

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Speaker 1: Golden State at home, by the way is twenty five

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Speaker 1: seventeen and two, so they have a hell of a record. Two.

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Speaker 1: But I'll take the dog plus seven Memphis on the

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Speaker 1: road at Golden State for half a unit. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: running through the bets real quick again. Kentucky Derby bet

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Speaker 1: two dollars exacta. Take the six horse, twelve horse, sixteen horse,

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Speaker 1: and nineteen horse with the three and the ten okay

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Speaker 1: for a two dollars exacta for us for the Kentucky Derby,

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Speaker 1: We're going Canelo by decision. Mius won forty half a

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Speaker 1: unit Ferguson to upset Chandler plus three hundred for a

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Speaker 1: quarter unit flyer bet based on value under two thirteen

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Speaker 1: Boston and Milwaukee half a unit in minus one ten,

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Speaker 1: Memphis plus seven half a unit at minus one ten

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Speaker 1: and over six and a half goals for the Avalanche

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Speaker 1: and the Predators at minus one twenty discored bet conversation

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Speaker 1: coming up here today. We'll try to bring that back

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Speaker 1: probably next week when things kind of calm down a

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Speaker 1: little bit. But no discord conversation coming up here this

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Speaker 1: morning for a discord bet. We will bring that back

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Speaker 1: as soon as I ken, but I've had some busy

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Speaker 1: Saturday mornings i haven't been able to do that.

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Speaker 2: So crazy day.

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Speaker 1: That's why I'm giving you six plays, so many bets,

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Speaker 1: so many many fun sporting events.

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Speaker 2: All the way from the morning early with.

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Speaker 1: Ten am basketball, tenn AM hockey or sorry, tenam hockey,

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Speaker 1: TENNAM baseball, West Coast time one pm Eastern, all the

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Speaker 1: way through midnight with Combat Sports UFT two seventy four

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Speaker 1: Canelo versus Bivel Awesome, Awesome sports Day, one of the

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Speaker 1: best sports students had in a really long time. Have

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Speaker 1: fun with the have fun with the Derby minus Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Each every

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Speaker 1: morning it's Stale Jus Podcast. I was being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by BETAMGM