WEBVTT - When will space be cheap? (featuring Zach Weinersmith) 0:00:04.240 --> 0:00:06.640 Often in sci fi people will be like, well, water 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:08.959 is going to be really valuable, and it's worth remarking 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:10.480 if you're in a place where you have to pay 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:13.000 huge amounts of money for clean drinking water, that's not 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.160 a good situation. You'd rather not do that. You're absolutely right. 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:19.160 If the economy already exists, than fine. Or as you say, 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:21.600 with California, I get frustrated, not with you. 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:28.080 But with the entire state as an idea, as an ethos. Oh, 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:30.640 this is two Virginias against one Californian. It's not fair. 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:31.400 It's not fair. 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:45.440 Hi. 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.040 I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist, and I'm pleased to 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:50.840 say that particle physics is still cheaper than going to space. 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.640 Hello, I'm Kelly wider Smith. I study parasites and space, 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:56.800 and there are parasites. You just got to pick up 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:58.640 some roadkill and you could see some parasites. It is 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:00.560 super cheap investment. 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:05.959 What about the space based parasite research industry shouldn't be 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:08.679 good at space to explore tapeworms in space? 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:10.920 I think that's a bad faith argument, Daniel. 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:12.639 Oh wow, I don't think there's. 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:14.080 A lot of money to be made from parasites in 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:14.880 space right now? 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:16.920 All right, so you're turning down that grant. 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:19.160 Then for now? Yeah, if you want to pay me 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.040 to think about what parasites women accidentally bring with us 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:25.039 to space, I'm taking money from just about anyone. 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.039 All right there, it is okay, send your money to Kelly. 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:29.800 Folks for space parasites. 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:30.280 Whoop? 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:32.279 Is it a science fiction movie? Is it a grant? 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:33.600 Who knows? We'll find out. 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:35.920 Could be both Porqueolo's dose. 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:41.319 Exactly. And so today on the podcast, we have a 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.080 special guest to come on and talk to us about 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:48.160 everything that's happening recently in launching two space industries and 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.040 trying to boost a space economy, trying to get humans 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:54.559 off this planet and live out in the cosmos. Kelly, 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:55.680 who is today's guest. 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.000 He's a real cutie pie, and you're gonna get a 0:01:58.040 --> 0:01:59.920 taste of what it's like to live in the Winersmith 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.720 how Zach likes to go on long soliloquies where I 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:05.360 interject every once in a while by saying no, Nope, 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:08.280 that's wrong, And so welcome to our life, listeners, You're 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:10.359 going to get a little taste of the Wadersmith household. 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:13.480 All right, And so today's episode is in response to 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:16.760 a question from Kay Gilbert, a listener who wrote to 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:20.640 us asking specifically for an update about what's going on 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:22.760 in space. Here's Kay's question. 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.280 I learned a lot from doctor Katrine Whitson now please 0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:29.520 invite Zach Wienersmith so he and Kelly can give us 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:34.240 an update on soonish, specifically the first section on space 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:37.520 travel becoming cheaper, because that seems to be the most 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:41.400 nowish since they wrote the book. Many more nations are 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:47.000 developing active space exploration programs and sending astronauts to the ISS. 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:51.600 Commercial spaceflight is still in the startup phase, but shows 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:55.920 a lot of potential and inexpensive CubeSats have made it 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.680 possible for almost anyone with an interest to launch a 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:02.160 satellite into lower Earth oad orbit. Of course, that just 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:06.640 makes usable orbits more crowded messes with astronomy and greatly 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:10.800 increases the amount of space junk. I'm especially interested in 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:14.200 what Kelly and Zach learned about space economics when writing 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:16.799 A City on Mars. Thanks all right. 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:19.160 I love this question because it means like, Wow, this 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:22.400 person really read both of your books and thought about it. Yeah, 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:24.880 and now they're coming to you for an accounting of 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:27.360 what's going on now. You are forever on the hook 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:29.760 on these topics, Kelly, you have to stay current forever. 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:32.560 You know. It does actually feel that way. I keep 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:34.560 trying to move on to the next book project, and 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.160 then I keep getting interview requests from people who are like, oh, 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:38.760 what do you think about this new thing? And I'm like, 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:40.760 I don't check the news. What new thing? And then 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:42.440 I got to check the news. But it's okay because 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:43.120 it's fascinating. 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:44.760 Kelly's so popular, Booty. 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:48.080 Oh, you know, you'd be stressed if you weren't getting 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.840 your other work done. But I do like getting to 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:51.600 talk about space. 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:53.880 Well, it's a great book, and so all the attention 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:57.160 is very worth it. So let's invite onto the podcast 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.400 the other Weeeners, Smith, who will join our conversation about 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.360 the future of the space economy. 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:09.800 All right, on today's show, we have the second best 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:13.920 Wiener Smith, Zach. He is the cartoonist behind Saturday Morning 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:17.120 Breakfast Cereal. He has three eighths of a physics degree 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:21.200 and he is a wonderful co author. Welcome to the show, Zach. 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:24.080 I do forgot two times. Hugo nominee. 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:26.120 Oh and one time winner and. 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.719 One time winner, but really the nomination is the true honor. 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:30.960 You also didn't get the Eisner, right. 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.120 I have twice not gotten the Eisner. 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:35.880 Actually I have many times. 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:39.200 Well, Zach was shortlisted. It's a slightly different. 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:42.520 I officially didn't live twice. That's right on the record. 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:45.520 Well, three eighths of a physics degree. I wonder at 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:47.239 what point you can round that up to one. 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:54.360 Not three eighths or ten. He also has a literature degree. 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.320 Yes, yes, that's true. 0:04:56.440 --> 0:04:58.520 Well, since we're going to be talking about physics and 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:00.480 space and all sorts of stuff, I think we need 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:02.880 to hear more about your credentials. Zach, tell us why 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:05.080 you didn't push that over the line to five eighth 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:06.560 So a physics degree, that's. 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:09.560 A good question. I actually had a like semester where 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.520 I felt like I had to choose. My comics career 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.600 was starting to go well. So I had already gotten 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:18.599 a degree in literature, and I went back for physics. 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:19.880 A well worn path from literature. 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:22.839 This was really weird because usually it's the other way around. 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:25.240 My last semester and I got like old bees, which 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:28.159 like if it's your second time in college. You know, 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:30.240 you're not like an undergraduate who doesn't know what they 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:32.320 want to do yet you really should be doing perfect. 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:34.240 And it was just that, like I was now managing 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:36.080 at a comic career that was getting bigger and bigger, 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:37.920 it seemed like the right path was to just kind 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:39.880 of like do comics that I could teach myself whatever 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:42.120 I wanted the side. And then things have gotten ever 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:46.320 busier and mestically self teach, which is in theory faster 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.279 the university, although I suppose professors have some role earlier. 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:54.040 So cartooning has stolen another physicist from us. 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:57.440 Yeah, there's quite a few lists. 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:00.800 But you're right about self teaching. I mean, I tell 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:03.800 my grad students to really pay attention in classes because 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.240 it's the last time somebody's going to spend all their 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:08.880 time trying to teach you something. After that, it's basically 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.240 like you in a textbook. That's how I learned something new. 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:13.080 I think it's the only way to get real depth, 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:14.799 and you can only get so much from another person. 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:16.240 You got to really sit with it. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.440 All right, Well, then consider this your pahd final example. 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:21.640 If you do well today, we can round who. 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:23.120 Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoah. I think you can give him 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:25.479 a bachelor's but he doesn't get a PhD. 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:30.120 How about a pod since the podcast, I can't. 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:32.400 Lurd my pod over him if he has one too. 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:38.480 My career fantasy is to get an honorary degree from anywhere, 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.000 just so I can say. That didn't seem that hard. 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.320 So Daniel, when we had your wife on the show, 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:47.880 it was very clear that you two are like supportive team. 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.880 Zach and I are competing over everything everything. 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:55.679 I believe in a free market, I think the best 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:56.880 spouse should win. 0:06:58.320 --> 0:06:59.160 And she's winning. 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.479 Wow. Well, we're not here to do Wiener Smith Merrick. 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:07.520 They as fun as that might be. We're here to 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:10.360 talk about space and whether we can access it and 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:13.440 whether you guys want to continue to throw a wet 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:17.200 blanket over the prospects of space colonization. You've been writing 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.400 about this for quite a while. Your first book, Sooni 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.160 Ish talked about space elevators and how they might be 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:24.600 a terrible idea, and then you wrote a whole book 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:27.400 about how we might not be ready to colonize Mars 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:29.440 and space, and the listener wants to know, are you 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:33.840 guys still bearish on space or have things changed? So 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:37.600 give us some background here, Why is space so hard 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:38.600 and expensive? 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:41.360 Yeah, so there's a lot of angles on that, but 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:43.920 I think the probably place to start is just literally 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:47.400 the access to space, meaning like getting up and fast. 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:50.360 And so I would say you can make a pretty 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:52.240 good case that the main reason is expensive is because 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:55.080 rockets kind of suck. The main reason we use them 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.200 to go to space is we have no other method. Right, 0:07:57.280 --> 0:07:59.760 So if you look at a rocket sitting on a pad, 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:03.720 it's something like eighty percent propellant meaning fuel and oxidizer 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:06.240 stuff that gets burned on the way up. It's something like, 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.679 depending on what you're doing, say sixteen to nineteen percent, 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:14.400 the like machine that historically you discard during the process, 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:17.400 although SpaceX has change that. And then at the very 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:20.760 top you have the firing, which is depending on again 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.560 on what you're doing, one to three percent, say of 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:25.960 the total mass, and that's what goes to space. And 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:28.360 you say, why is it so awful? Why is the 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:31.560 ratio so terrible? And you know, of course you could say, 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:33.080 well if this planet were a little bigger, may we 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:35.679 just couldn't do it. The example we like to use 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:37.680 is like if you had to take a road trip 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:41.440 from Alaska to Buenos Aires, you would gas up once 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:43.800 in a while. If you had to bring all the 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:46.920 gas you needed for the entire trip at the beginning, 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:50.080 you would look like a flea on like a gas tanker. Right, 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:52.520 And the main problem you're going to face is that 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:54.960 the first, say gallon of gas is mostly going to 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.480 move gas. There are gallons of gas you're going to 0:08:57.520 --> 0:09:00.480 literally move the entire time, and finally we use up 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:02.839 at the end. The most efficient way to do it, 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:05.280 and this gets us to space elevators would be of 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:08.360 like a magic pixie just dropped the drop of gas 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:10.440 you need in whenever you needed it, so you never 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:13.600 had to carry any mass of gas. Because that's most 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:15.000 of what a rocket is doing. This is why we 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:17.280 have staging, right, That's why a rocket burns up a 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.080 bunch of propellant and then just drops off a hunk 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:22.360 into the ocean, or if it's SpaceX, drops off a 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:23.800 hunk that lands itself. 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.080 Well, if you have magic pixies as an option, we 0:09:26.080 --> 0:09:27.280 can solve lots of problems. 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:27.679 Not just. 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:32.480 That opens up the door, that's. 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:34.880 Right, you know, space elevator in a certain sense wouldn't 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:36.959 be the magic pixie. Right. So space elevator is like 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.240 a cable or a ribbon that dangles from something up 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.200 in space, and there are different ways to do that, 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:44.600 but basically you can just visualize this cable that goes 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:48.079 up like a beanstalk, and you climb it. And the 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.400 nice thing about that is you just expend the energy 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:53.880 to you know, climb one more foot, right, so you 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:56.720 can beam the energy that goes up. Most of like 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.839 your efforts are going into fighting gravity in the sense 0:09:59.880 --> 0:10:01.959 of just getting up the next step instead of carrying 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:03.200 oldest propellant, right. 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:05.559 Yeah. And I think space elevators are hard for people 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:08.160 to grow because it feels like it's floating and if 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:10.640 you stand on it's going to fall down, and there's 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:13.720 some complex orbital physics there. But essentially the argument is 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:15.800 it's like a ladder. Right. It's a lot easier to 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:18.000 climb a ladder one hundred feet than it is to 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:21.480 jump ondred exactly, right, Yeah, And it takes a lot 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:24.319 of energy because the ladder is supporting you as you go. 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:27.600 Up, that's right. And there's been lots of hopes to 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:30.440 get around the rocket problem, right, yeah, classic one of 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.880 you read Jules Verne's First Spin on the Moon is 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:33.920 do you remember what they do? 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:34.800 I don't know. 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:36.640 They shooting a gun. There's actually a whole kind of 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:39.240 comedy bit about Americans with guns. It's the Baltimore Gun 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:41.319 Club and they shoot it and it's like a good 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:44.400 introductory physics thing because it's like, I think we calculated 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:46.360 it either for Sunnish or a city on Mars where 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.680 it's like the initial g's are like twenty thousand to 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:51.959 actually get to the Moon with the spaceship they're launching, 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:53.240 so the humans would go flat. 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:55.719 Oh I seem it's like a cannon. They fire you 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:56.839 out of a canon into the moon. 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:58.839 Literally, it's just a giant cannon. Yeah. 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.080 Yeah, yeah, it was a gun that came up with 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:02.880 the proposal. But anyway, the book is called From the 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:03.720 Earth to the Moon. 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:04.480 Oh I'm sorry. 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:06.600 Yes, well that's not so outlanders these days. If you've 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:09.320 seen those spin projects, whether they like spin something up 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:12.360 and then literally launch it into space, it's like good 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:15.160 for some payloads, but enough for people. Yeah, the gun. 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:16.600 Would work if your payload was like a hunk of 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.200 iron or like some some fluid or something. But yeah, 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:21.120 with like delicate, little splatty humans. 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.040 It's no good, all right, So getting off of Earth 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:28.360 is hard. Rockets are bad. Space elevators are problematic for 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:30.880 other reasons. We can dig into that in another episode. 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.640 Why do we want to lift stuff from Earth? I mean, yeah, 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:35.880 there's lots of stuff in space. Why don't we just 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:37.920 like build stuff in space for space? 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:40.480 So if you want to get stuff somewhere in space 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:42.200 to build with, you got to say to yourself, well, 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:44.400 where am I getting it? You don't have a lot 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:47.040 of options. It turns out you have the Moon, but 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:48.679 you know, the Moon is still pretty far away. It's 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:49.920 hard to get to and then you have to like 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:52.040 somehow land on the Moon and then boost off, which 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:54.160 takes a lot of energy less than doing it on Earth, 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:56.400 but a lot. Notably, this is true for the Moon 0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:58.719 and Mars. You don't have a thick atmosphere, which is 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.160 very helpful when you'd like to land in right, you 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:03.720 visualize Neil Armstrong in the Lunar Lander. There's no wings 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:06.240 on it because there's no reason, and so that makes 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:09.120 it more complicated. You could alternatively, like go to get asteroids. 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:11.280 You know, people usually think when we say that we're 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:13.760 talking about the belt, and I think enthusiasts would say 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.679 that is ultimately the goal, but like for a plausible 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:19.720 ish scenario, we're actually talking about near Earth asteroids that 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:22.520 have a lot of unlikely characteristics, so like they have 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:25.680 to be high and valuable stuff usually called platinum group metals, 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.599 that's the really hot stuff, and ideally they should be 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:30.400 sort of locking velossity with the Earth, by which I 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.880 just mean as the Earth is moving, the asteroid comes 0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:34.960 in such a way that it like is not going 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:36.800 too fast with respect to us, So you can imagine 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:38.520 like the Earth is going well way the asteroids going 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:39.840 to the other. Trying to catch it is going to 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.560 be a dangerous business. That's all really hard and well 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.480 beyond our current capacity. So we usually say, you know, 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:47.840 if you go up to geosynchronous, which is about twenty 0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:50.440 four thousand miles high, you can make money pretty much 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:55.000 anywhere in that shell, by data transmission, by remote sensing, 0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:58.480 by navigation, by doing stuff for militaries. Outside that shell, 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.040 there's not a lot of value financial sense. There is 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.520 obviously all sorts of cool science value, but there's not 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:04.719 a lot of value beyond that. 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.320 It's funny when I first invited Zach on the show, 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:08.600 He's like, I don't know that I'm going to have 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:12.200 a lot to say. And I had thought like, oh, 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.559 maybe it should just be Daniel and Zach on this episode. 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:15.840 And then Zach was like, all right, I don't think 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:17.079 I'm gonna have anything to say it. I was like, 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.240 all right, we'll see. But anyway, this is an interview 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.160 of Zach, so I will continue to let Zach. 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:23.720 Go for it. 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.280 Well, I guess, as an audience member to this, I 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:29.520 might be a little bit skeptical about that. I mean, 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:32.080 I buy the argument that there's not much in space 0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:33.960 you want to bring back down to Earth. I mean, 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.720 I think people often think, ooh, platinum asteroid, that would 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:39.560 be worth seventy five quad trillion dollars if I could 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.320 bring it back here and sell it off bit by bit, 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:45.160 And obviously that's ridiculous, But still catching stuff in space 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:46.920 for building in space. I know we don't have the 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:50.120 technology now, but is it impossible to imagine that we 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.000 could never catch an astroid? I mean, I saw it 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:53.600 happen on for all mankind. 0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:58.120 Yes, yes, yes, obviously at some point we'll have the 0:13:58.160 --> 0:13:59.800 technology to do that. I have no doubt about that. 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.640 None of this is anti gravity. There's no forbidden physics. 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:04.880 It's just engineering. The way I think about that is 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:08.040 essentially what you're implicitly doing. There's assuming some kind of 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.480 space economy, right, You're wishing it into existence, and then 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:14.000 it's justified. But it's kind of like saying, well, once 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:16.920 we have a on the bottom of the Marianna's trench, 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:21.040 my French bottom Chicken Sandwich company will really be valuable. 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:23.840 So I think this is why a lot of space 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:26.120 geeks are in the business of saying, we have to 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.200 build the city because it's existential. Kelly and I were 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:30.800 just talking about this. There's a guy we really like 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.160 named Winchell Chung who runs something called Project Row, which 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:35.720 kind of documents everything ever said about space travel. And 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:38.760 this idea calls mcguffinite, which is reference to the idea 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.080 in movies of a McGuff and like a certain something 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:45.640 everyone needs. You'll find that movies books everything for space colonization, 0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:49.920 they always positive mcguffinite. So like an avatar, there's an unobtainium, 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:55.760 like insanely stupid name, really hard to get them, which 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.600 is like a room temperature superconductor that somehow you can't 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:02.600 just make back home from the same elements. You have 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:06.440 to get it from like these poor natives. And the 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.000 way I think with this is like, I'm sorry to 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:09.840 be really boring about this, but it's like the whole 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:12.480 world is running on the same periodic table. There's not 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:14.520 like magic stuff you can get. There's no special in 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.240 between e elements or whatever anything like this. So I 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:18.720 don't know why you'd suppose you would find them, of 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.320 all places like on an asteroid or on Mars, where 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.440 you know you're just working from the same Giant Solar 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.040 System accretion disc that made the other planets. 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.120 I mean, from a physics point of view, there could 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:33.160 be additional stable, super heavy elements. It is positive, yeah, 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:36.320 so there might be very heavy elements that are stable. 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.840 It's called the island of stability. But you'd need some 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:42.520 pretty exotic physics to explain why it's created and existing asteroids, 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.000 and it's not here on Earth, and it's also long lived, 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:47.560 et cetera, et cetera. So you're right, Earth is mostly 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.200 made out of the same stuff as asteroids, and so'd 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.040 be pretty unusual that you could find something only in 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:54.960 asteroids to put in your chicken sandwich. 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:57.880 Yes, when we say island of stability, I thought physicists 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:00.560 meant like two millisecond. 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:10.520 Long lived is reli Okay, But isn't that the way 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.080 all economies get started? I mean, there used to be 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.680 no economy in California and then you know there was 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.120 a gold rush that we had him a guffn. All 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:22.960 economies do get started somehow, right, Your argument would essentially 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:24.840 suggest we can never have new economies. 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.760 Well, you know, so I say it this way, if, 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:30.760 as he promises, mister Musk wants to spend you know, 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:33.560 a trillion dollars or whatever and just plant a city 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:34.960 on Mars, you know, we have all sorts of other 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.280 concerns about that from other episodes you guys have done. 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:38.920 But I suppose he did it, Like I suppose you 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:40.840 woke up tomorrow and he had done it. Then maybe 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:42.680 there's an argument for some of this stuff. But that's 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.840 because you've made such a bad situation. Often in sci 0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:48.840 fi people will be like, well, water is going to 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:51.200 be really valuable, and it's worth remarking if you're in 0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:53.040 a place where you have to pay huge amounts of 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:55.720 money for clean drinking water, that's not a good situation, 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.240 you'd rather not do that. You're absolutely right if the 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.840 economy already exists and fine, or as you say, with California, 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:06.080 I get frustrated, not with you, of course, but. 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:09.960 With the entire state as an idea, as an ethos. Oh, 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.480 this is two Virginias against one Californian. It's not fair. 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:13.240 It's not fair. 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:16.040 I'm ancestrally from Texas, so I gave both of you 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:22.080 coastal leeds. My cost is filmed as it should be, is. 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:23.440 Near coast the Gulf of America. 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.000 Now, yeah, that's right, that's right. You can gas your 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:29.679 car up in the Gulf of America. So, you know, 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:32.480 often when we say this, I totally sympathize with not 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:34.720 wanting to be someone who's like, nah, dreams are dumb. 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:38.199 You know, people will say, well, if Columbus had thought that, 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:39.800 what would have happened, And first of all, I don't 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:41.879 want to say is probably fifty million people wouldn't have 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:42.600 been murdered. 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:46.840 But that side, we'd still have all of min in history, right, right, 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:47.280 you'd have. 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:51.080 A couple of nice things. But also, like Columbus shows 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.760 up and he gathers resources that are widely available in 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.359 part by the way, because those indigenous people had found 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:59.000 it and could tell them where it was willingly or otherwise, 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.679 that was generally true. Right, So like Theo's people who 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:04.360 show up in California, these settlers, they found the San 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:07.080 Fernando Valley. Right, you want to talk about value, and 0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:10.719