WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 10 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:12.120 Check it down man Now Down Now Thursday morning, November 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:16.840 eight to Beat in the Book podcast, Megapod Time Skill 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:20.880 Alexander on the show today week ten Lines in the NFL. 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:23.920 The show brought you by the score x dot Com 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:27.720 th h E S c O r e x dot com. 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:29.760 It's that secret football stock parking thing I've been talking 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:32.040 about for years. It is finally here, a hundred percent 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.159 free to start a league with you and your friends. 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:35.920 And when you sign up, your entered into the score 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:38.120 x Main League and win five thousand dollars. But more 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:40.040 to the point for everybody who listens to this show, 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:42.559 if you enter promo code Gil that's Gilt with two 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:44.760 l's on sign up and you're the top beating the 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:46.880 Book score excer. At the end of the regular season, 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:49.360 you are going to be on the megapod for wild 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:53.000 Card weekend with Me, Marco and Ace to discuss your 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:56.279 NFL trading prowess. We look forward to that again. It's 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:59.480 the score x dot com. To find all the download links, 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:01.600 Megan happened. We'd love for you to be the guy. 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.320 By the way, I tweeted out the current standings. Those 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.319 are on my Twitter at Beating the book. It is 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:09.120 very competitive, not too late to join to try to 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.880 compete with those at the top. Right now on the 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:14.480 show today, as usual, the staples of the show on 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:17.280 my right, from wage to Talk thirty nine years into 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:22.240 business Marco to Angelo. Good morning, Marco, I'm doing very well. 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:24.840 How are you? As the real question? You doing good? 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:31.559 Last week was one of those weeks of the super 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.080 Contest in Classic where I share an entry. I was 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.160 four and one in gold I was five and oh 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:38.960 and I picked up all of one game. It was 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:42.400 such a it was such a everybody did well kind 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:44.000 of week in the NFL. This is a very funny 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:48.120 week because lots of huge lines like eight different lines 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:50.560 of a touchdown or more in the NFL will get 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:53.000 into it momentarily. On my left is always on the show. 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:55.960 Out of the sports betting diaspora. Ace, what's happening? Man? 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:58.760 Never better, bro. I got coming off a terrible Sunday 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:01.840 in the NFL. That was my worst week of the year. 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:05.720 I mean just everything went went wrong, you know. Fortunately 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:07.800 I didn't give out two month volume, didn't bet a 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.480 lot of volume, but I just could not win for 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:12.880 nothing on Sunday. Are you allowed to talk? About that 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:14.560 boxing thing you were just talking about off air. You're 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.120 not allowed to talk about it. Yeah, yeah, absolutely mentioned 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:19.160 it to the people. Mention it to the people. Yeah. 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:23.440 They're now that the UFC signed the deal with h ESPN, 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:26.600 they're asked to produce more content and obviously you know 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:31.320 the UFCS, UFC's embraced sports betting and wants to start 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:35.720 create more content covering it from that aspect um. And 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:39.000 they they're creating a new show for ESPN plus that 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:40.919 they asked me to be a part of. And we're 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.519 actually with the next pay per view UFC that's coming 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.040 up the first week of December. Um, will be the 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:49.200 first episode that we that airs. Um. You know, I'm 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.560 just coming on to probably do a segment and cover 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:54.520 it from the Vegas angle. UM. But I'm just glad 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:56.960 to be asked to do it. You know, thousands of 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:00.440 people covered the sports. So I'm just congratulations out to me, 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:04.520 Congratulations to you. I'm excited. No, that's awesome. Uh, thankfully 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:06.359 or hopefully they don't listen to this podcast, because the 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:08.280 second they do, you are out. They're gonna be like 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:16.519 this guy camp life right years Pat, Because I built 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:19.840 the reputation that's I just mess it with you. Congratulations 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:21.880 for real. Couldn't be happy this week and last week 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:23.800 at the Truths of the Truth. Man, I'm two and 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.520 seven on on best Bets for the podcast this year. 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:29.160 I can't put it any other way. I mean, truth 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.560 be told. I I document everything, my bets on my head. 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.760 You know. I'm I've been a decent NFL year. I 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:38.119 just my best bets. I just can't win, man, I don't. 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:39.680 I don't know what it is. Let me let me 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:42.320 introduce the guests. Let me introduce the guests. We're very 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:44.400 happy for you, though. I am very happy for you. 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:46.760 First time on the show, first time on the show, 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:49.160 and has been here in uh in Vegas all these years, 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:53.360 twenty years in sports broadcasting, hosting sports talk radio. I 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:58.080 played golf with him Super Contest weekend last year and 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:00.800 uh he tried everything possible to get me into uh 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:03.360 lots of trouble. So I appreciate him for that. He's 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.640 now hosting sports X Radio over at seven twenty k 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:08.800 d w N here in Las Vegas. Ladies and gentlemen, 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.000 Ken Thompson, thank you Ken for doing this. Alexander. I 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:14.880 appreciate you and anything you know, doing anything with a 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:18.560 Sir Marco always always solid. But you guys do a 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:20.560 great job. We can week down to step in for 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.320 Brady Cannon. Then I feel honored. Yeah, Brady, who was 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.400 on the first week of this year's podcast. Brady's always 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:28.680 on a week one. He's kind of a tradition. So 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:30.360 I asked Brady, and Brady was like, no, but I 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:32.440 got Ken right here. Brady couldn't do it on short notice, 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:35.400 so we appreciate you stepping in. Let's begin, gentlemen, with 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:39.240 the Monday night game. Monday Night. Oh, they don't get 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:43.400 any worse than this. Giants at San Francisco can I'm 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:46.159 gonna start with you. I'm not even gonna elaborate. Usually 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:49.000 I go through a whole litany of stats. Uh, suffice 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:51.160 it to say the Giants are coming off of by 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.400 their one in seven. Eli Manning is still their quarterback. 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:58.000 San Francisco coming off extra rest here. When last we 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.200 saw them, they were playing on a Thursday night where 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:04.599 they completely destroyed the Oakland Raiders. Uh you're Oakland Raiders. 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:07.360 Sorry to lead with that, Ken. San Francisco is two 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.320 and seven. The Niners are three point favorites here Nick 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:14.760 Mullins was the starter that day when two sixty two 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:17.880 three touchdowns note pics a one fifty one point nine 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:23.120 passer rating, just a completely outlying pro debut. Amazing performance. 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:25.640 But you couldn't have a worse game in terms of 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:29.680 fan interest. From a betting standpoint, any value here are 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:31.600 you betting this? And if so, which way? Yeah? I 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:33.400 am betting it actually, And you know what I'm gonna 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:35.360 look at. I looked at both sides and the Giants 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.960 coming off of by always intriguing. Even on the team's 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.880 one and seven, I'm looking at this team saying, you 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:42.800 know what, we got eight games to go. We're not 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:46.200 making the postseason, but let's go out. Let's make Beckham health, 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:49.200 you know, happy, Let's uh throw the ball around. Let's 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:51.360 try and get some protection on the offensive line, which 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:54.359 has been you know, just absolutely pathetic. I mean between 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.719 them and of course watching the Raiders like I do 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.600 every week, watching those offensive lines, it's just been tough 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:03.640 to even watch football, you know, with that low uh, 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.039 you know, just percentage of being able to block one 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.520 on one and uh, you know, when I watched this 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.279 Giant team, they just don't they just don't have it, 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:13.360 but coming off to buy, you know they're gonna go 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:15.600 up against Mullins. They've got film on him. Now. Look, 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:18.240 I followed Mullens's career at Southern Miss. The kids got 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.440 talent in a wide open offense, and I think the 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:22.400 kid can make it. But it's a big game for 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:24.479 him because he's going to get the start over Bethard. 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:26.520 Bethard's still a little bit banged up, but it's a 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:30.039 chance to show Shanahan that hey, I'm your number two 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:33.919 guy when Garoppolo comes back, so I think you know 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.640 you'll get his best effort. I looked at the weather, 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:41.520 sixty degrees around kickoff, no wind, giants off of by 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:43.240 going to air it out a little bit more try 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:45.599 and get back a more involved I really think that 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:47.600 this game has a chance to go over the forty 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:50.080 four points, even though the two average under forty two 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.640 between them. I'm looking at this game with great weather, 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:55.480 no wind coming into play. Normally the Bay Area around 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:57.640 this time, even Santa Clara, you're gonna get some win 0:06:57.760 --> 0:06:59.920 come into play. But it looks like a perfect fork 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:02.200 asked for points to be scored. And let's say so 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:04.160 when you got one and seven and two and seven. 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:06.760 They have nothing to loose. Throw the ball around, you know, 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.039 entertain the Monday night crowd because they don't have a 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:12.160 flex schedule like the Sunday night game. So entertain some people. 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:14.880 And uh Ogle Tree is still questionable with the hamstring, 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:16.600 so that hurts the Giants a little bit on defense 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:18.400 as well. But I'm gonna play over the total of 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:20.840 forty four in this game. Over the total forty four. 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:22.920 I lived at the Bear for twenty one years, and 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:27.120 I often said in my two decades there, that's the 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:30.520 area of the country that global warming helped the most. 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:33.680 It is much more mild, to your point, Ken Uh 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.200 this time of year than it ever was, say, ten 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.320 or fifteen years ago. It's very interesting how the climate 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.160 has changed there. This is in Santa Clara, obviously closer 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:45.520 to Silicon Valley, San Francisco as we speak. This is Uh. 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:47.640 The juice is moving a little on this. It's three 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:50.840 with extra juice. Consensus in favor of the home standing 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:53.600 Niners here and Nick Mullins is getting the start. It 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:56.840 was a Kyle Shanahan decision. It's almost as if C. J. 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.080 Bethard could have gone in this game. But chan A 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:03.160 hand is actually making the decision. It appears to go 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:05.680 with Nick Mullins. It's it's a little unclear, but it 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:08.840 sounds to me that way. Uh. Nick Mullins, though, Marko, 0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:10.840 if I go to you this because if I, if 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.760 I have gleaned anything from your talks through the years, Marco, 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:15.600 there's certain things that I like to call Marco is 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.520 ms and let me just guess that one of your 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:21.600 talking points here will be. This is different though, because 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.480 even though Mullins started that game, we didn't really know 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:28.160 he was starting till day of game, literally hours beforehand. 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.400 Here the Giants have had all the time to prepare 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.839 for him. Yeah, and I'm just gonna open this game 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:37.600 with saying, uh, one of the greatest movie lines of 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:41.800 all time from The Godfather. Just when I thought I 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:47.439 was out, they pulled me back in fucking giants him again. 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.079 It's a it's a Monday night game off the bias, 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:55.760 Ken said, but more importantly, whenever you're one in seven, Okay, 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:57.840 the season's over for him. We all know it's been 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:01.400 over for some time. But these are old professionals and 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:06.199 it's a standalone, nationally televised game on a Monday night 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:09.000 they don't want to be embarrassed again. If they're gonna 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:11.160 come to play, this is the game they come to play. 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:14.640 And as you said, yes, it's easier for a quarterback 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:18.199 you know, to go in there, you know, almost cold. 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.080 I mean they didn't tell anybody until you said hours 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:24.480 before then we saw that line move like crazy on 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:27.720 that Thursday night game. Now he's had a long time 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:30.480 to think about it. And is Keen pointed out too, 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.240 there's at least one game a film to look at. 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:37.000 I like the Giants in this spot, and I will 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.680 say that this probably will be if the Giants don't 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:42.720 find a way to get the money here in this one. 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.800 There's just no way that you can back them at 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:48.240 any point the rest of the season. This is the 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.600 type of game that if they're gonna show up, it's here. 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:53.040 They've had two weeks to try to come up with 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:56.120 a game plan to fix that offense that has been 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:59.400 absolutely horrific. I'll go ahead and give him the shot. 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:03.480 I got the Giants winning this all right, little pre 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:05.480 flop bet for Marco on this one, Ace I won't 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:09.120 belabor at Giant San Francisco Monday night, obviously not what 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:11.720 they anticipated when they made this schedule, the folks over 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:15.800 at Monday Night Football didn't expect a combined three wins 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:17.480 between these two teams at that time. But they thought 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:20.360 Jimmy Garoppolo would be the quarterback for the Niners, and 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:23.000 they thought the Giants would actually be a credible football team. 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:26.720 Neither obviously the case right here. Yeah, bottom line is 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.400 one of our greatest assets, as better as the ability 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:32.440 to pass. I mean, you can't lose money you don't 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:34.840 put in the middle. And the bottom line is, if 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:37.760 you don't love a game, I mean really feel like 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:40.360 you have an edge, you're just gambling. And if you're 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:43.960 laying one ten to flip a coin, you're setting yourself 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:47.960 up for long term uh, you know, losing your bank 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:52.719 roll eventually. I mean, you just can't continue to practice 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:55.920 like that and expect good results. Um, and this is 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:57.960 one of those games. If you don't love going in, 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:00.360 there's no reason to put your money to on. You'll 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:02.679 find better spots to get down. You have a one 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:06.360 and seven team against the two and seventeen. Uh, you know, 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.880 three wins between them. Uh, here's what I can tell you. 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:12.560 Not in the groups that I provide accounts four touched 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:15.000 this game so far, but hit that I ship, uh 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.520 share info with He told me his guy's best San 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.360 Francisco minus three. Actually text me this morning and said, 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:22.640 you're not gonna if you like the San franc side. 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.480 By mid afternoon, you won't find threes. There'll be three 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.000 and a half or three minus twenty five. They're supposed 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:29.600 to hit it today, so if you see that happen, 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.720 his group hit it. Um, so obviously they like something 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.920 in San Francisco. But personally I don't like this game. Um. 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.400 I listening to Kenny, he kind of made sense. You 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:41.880 know you've got two teams not playing for much. Um, 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:43.880 it takes a little more effort to play defense. So 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:46.959 I see that for sure. Um. But for me, I 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:49.080 don't want to waste any of the listeners time, Like 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:52.120 I said, unless something strong comes in from sources other 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:55.120 than myself. Um, this is a pass for me. Yeah, man, 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:58.040 for me, this is exactly like that San Francisco Oakland game. 0:11:58.040 --> 0:11:59.959 And I said this on Visa on the Numbers game 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:02.760 uh Monday through Friday series SEXUM channel two A four, 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.800 where I said, hey, um, I'm not betting this pre flop. 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:07.840 I'm gonna watch a driver to which is exactly what 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:09.920 I did in a San Francisco Oakland game. Then you 0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:12.679 have the information right there where you're like, oh, Oakland 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:16.600 really does suck ass. So it was a live betting 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:18.920 tour to force on the Niners. It was just a 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:22.640 Niners flood the rest of that game. And that's how 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:24.400 I think you bet this game. I think you wait 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.960 to watch a little bit of it and then jump in. 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.200 That's how I'd prefer to bet it. Anyway. I'm with 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:31.680 you as no pre flop for me. Sunday night, gentlemen, 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:36.679 Dallas at Philadelphia, NFC East game between the reeling Cowboys 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.679 for at three and five and the Eagles here who 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.040 are very poised now in the NFC East with the 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.680 Redskins offensive line being decimated and the Giants being in 0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:50.320 the uh seller of the division to really recapture their 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:52.760 dominance of this division. Now, I do a guessing line 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.160 show on Monday, as you guys know, both on the 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:58.800 podcast and at Vison, and I guessed before I got 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.400 to see Dallas play tennis, see Marco. I guessed four 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.000 and a half in this game NFC East game. Usually 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:06.240 back in the day, this was always three points, but 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.720 Dallas kind of reeling. I said four and a half, 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.360 and Tim Fitzgerald over the South Point, who was filling 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.480 in for Christie this week, said to me six, and 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:17.800 I couldn't believe it. I was like, wow, Philadelphia by six, 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.439 like that seems really high. And then Dallas went ahead 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:24.440 and laid an egg, and it's seven now, and I 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.439 kind of get the seven now more than I did 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.520 the six. Then. Nonetheless, that's the consensus number. The Eagles 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.520 favored by a full touchdown over a Dallas team that 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:34.400 hasn't won a game on the road yet this year, 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.600 and Philly's got the extra rest here. How do you feel, 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:40.160 Marco about this one? I don't feel really good. It's 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:42.000 an ugly thing that we got to look at the 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.680 Cowboys two prime time games in a row, and you 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.120 talk about getting screwed by the schedule makers. You got 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.240 them off of a Monday night game, have to come 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.640 back on a short week play on Sunday against the 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.440 team that was on a by I mean, that's just 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.520 not supposed to happen. And it's a division in games, 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.679 so you know, I mean, it's added advantage to Philadelphia 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:06.599 in this spot. You look at it, you know, and 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:09.840 over the years, you know, when we talk about situational spots, 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.560 it's always been a good play to jump on a 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:16.240 team that you know, look bad on Monday Night football. 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:19.240 And once again Dallas looked bad. He really couldn't get 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:23.080 anything going, uh nothing in the second half. Why they 0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:27.080 quit running Zeke Elliott is beyond me. There's no reason 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.560 that they should have only ran the football nineteen times 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.160 in that game. You know, I know that they ended 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.520 up losing by two scores, but it was a tie 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:38.240 game into the third quarter. You're it's not like you're 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.960 playing catch up and you have to throw on every down. 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:43.760 They don't have the balance. And if this team doesn't 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:47.160 have balance on offense, they've got no shot. And since 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.440 they added a Marii Cooper, you would think it would 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:53.040 have made life even easier for Elliott because they do 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:57.160 have to uh worry about a past threat now with 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:01.200 having a big play receiver. Granted he was only into 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.480 the system for a week, but they made a you know, 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:07.720 an effort to go to him on Monday night. Maybe 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.600 almost too much. I look at this one, There's only 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.000 one way for me to play it. Even though Dallas 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.440 uh is still ranked number four defensively at five point 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:20.480 three yards per play, and uh, Philadelphia is at twenty 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:24.800 one with its six yards a play. Uh. Normally I 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.680 would take the better defensive team getting points, but I 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:29.360 think if you're gonna do this, the way to go 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:32.960 with it is tease, UH Philadelphia down, get them down 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.200 to minus one on the teaser. I don't see Dallas 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.000 going into Philadelphia and winning, but I'm not comfortable laying 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.960 the full touchdown, so I will have Philadelphia on teasers. 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:45.600 Agree with that. That's exactly what I would do with 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.040 this game, Philly on the tease, do not see Dallas 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.000 winning it. Marco, by the way, thank you for not 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:53.640 having two consecutive cursing outbursts. I appreciate that that was very, 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:55.960 very very passionate of you in that first game. I 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.760 have to tell you, Uh, I don't usually go after 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.840 announcer and ounce or cruise or anything like that, because 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:04.440 you know, we all make mistakes. We're all annoying at times, 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:06.920 for sure. But can I just say about Joe Testa 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:11.760 Tour and Jason Witten that I cannot deal anymore with 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:14.280 these guys that four yard passed. I mean, this is 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:16.920 like item number ten this year. But that four yards 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.400 slanting out that a Maori Cooper scored on did they 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.240 think that was picasso? Like? How many times do you 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.840 see a four yard slanting out? And they talked about 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:26.160 it like it was it gives the greatest play they'd 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:28.680 ever seen in their lives. It's driving me nuts anyway, 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:32.160 he see your thoughts here, Yeah, this is typical NFC East. 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:34.760 You know, these two teams know each other so well 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.720 at home field advantage usually doesn't mean much. You look 0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:41.080 at last season the road team one twice. Um. But 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.160 with that said, I was surprised the line was this 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:47.440 high as well. I mean slight power rating wise. I 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.160 had it lower, um like you did, and he just 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:51.760 of off the top of my head, it looked a 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.000 little bit too high. But the more you look into it, 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:57.120 I mean, Dallas hasn't won a single road game all year. Um. 0:16:57.160 --> 0:16:59.080 You know, you look at little things like that, and 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:02.640 you could see why and it was shaded a little higher. 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.280 You know, they haven't covered a road game all season. 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.440 In fact, they score about six almost a touchdown less 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.400 per game on the road, um than they do at 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.120 you know overall, um, so it's pretty hard to win 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:17.359 football games like that where I think the value lies 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:21.359 is on the total um and it sounds square, you know, 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.280 going over on a prime time game. But but here's why. 0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:27.080 When you look at this matchup, the only thing that 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.800 really sticks out is is defense. You know, you have 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:32.800 h two teams that are having a pretty good year 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.639 at least points around. Defensively, Dallas is third in the NFL, 0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:39.919 Philadelphia's fifth in the NFL. Both allound less than twenty 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:42.240 points a game. And then you look at the flip sign, 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:47.600 how are they offensively points scored? Dallas is phill least one. 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:50.560 So it looks like the perfect you know, situation for 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:54.920 a low scoring game. But those type of that type 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.040 of information factored into the betting line. In fact that 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:02.600 I I believe that it shaded because of that, meaning 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.680 this becomes the perfect storm for value on the over. 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:08.480 You know, you have the perception of the fact these 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.800 are two good defenses, um, so you're gonna shade the 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:15.119 line a little bit shorter on the total um. Uh. 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:17.600 And then a couple that with if they are really 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.760 good defenses, you know that that leads to turnovers, that 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:24.760 leads to short fields. It doesn't necessarily mean low scoring. UM. 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.240 So for me, I think there's some value on that over. 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:29.960 The only thing that scares me is it's prime time. 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.480 You know, if this was in Sunday afternoon, I definitely 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:36.879 be on the over. UM. I mean on the under. 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.439 But the fact that it's prime time scares me a 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:42.840 little bit, UM because you do see some things happen 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:46.480 late in in prime time games where it doesn't not 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.720 as much on a Sunday afternoon, and because of that, 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:52.200 sometimes the scoring gets out of hand late in the game. 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.760 But otherwise I think the uh, the the over is 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:56.680 good in this one. Uh. You know, forty three is 0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.960 where it's sitting right now. UM. I just think that's 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:01.800 the only way you could play it. I like Marco's 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:03.840 idea with tease in it. Dallas hasn't won a single 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.000 road game UM this year, and I think Philly is 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:10.560 better than their form. Poor record reflects, UM can't lay 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:12.840 the seven man. To me, it's it's got to be 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:15.320 the over past total tease game for me, you know, 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:18.080 me all I advocate is the teasers these days. I'm 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:20.480 all about that. Forty three is. In fact, the total 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.359 is the second lowest total on the board this weekend 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:26.760 in the NFL, A full touchdown higher than the single 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:30.040 lowest total, which is on the Buffalo Bill's Jets game, 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.439 which that thirty six and a half right now, A 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:36.879 curious line in that game that is coming down through 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:40.000 the key number of seven. Now that Josh McCown is 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:44.040 the quarterback and Sam Donald is not very peculiar move 0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:46.720