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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We prepare to spend some time with Don Levy knowing

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Speaker 2: that there is a huge conversation not only in New York,

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Speaker 2: but here in Washington, DC and in political circles around

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Speaker 2: the country about the New York mayoral race. The name

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Speaker 2: mom Donnie gets people worked up for better or worse.

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Speaker 2: And when you look at the polling numbers in the

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Speaker 2: mayoral race, there's a reason why I'm Donnie is way

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Speaker 2: out ahead in this four way contest. According to the

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Speaker 2: latest from Siena. This is the Siena Research Institute at

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Speaker 2: Sienna University, and our good friend Don Levy. I'm Donnie

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Speaker 2: forty six percent, a twenty two point advantage over Cuomo

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Speaker 2: twenty four percent, Curtis Sliwa fifteen percent, Eric Adams nine percent.

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Speaker 2: So you know how this goes, And then you consider

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Speaker 2: what President Trump has been saying about this well, guess what.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the President is onto something here, because if in

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Speaker 2: fact he did get Eric Adams to drop out and

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Speaker 2: Curtis slee would to drop out, this becomes a real contest.

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Speaker 2: The big if, as Don writes, is what would happen

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Speaker 2: if both Sliwa.

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Speaker 3: And Adams were to drop out of the race.

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Speaker 2: And he's with us right now, back by popular demand,

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Speaker 2: the director of the Siena Research Institute at Siena University

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Speaker 2: America's pollster Don Levy. Mister Levy, welcome back. It's great

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Speaker 2: to see you. What are the numbers look like when

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Speaker 2: you get to to drop out?

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Speaker 4: Well, fabulous to be with you, Joe. It's it's a race.

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Speaker 5: If kurrent me or Adams and Curtis LEEO were to

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Speaker 5: drop out right now, former Governor Cuomo gets about seventy

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Speaker 5: seven percent of both of those candidates votes if indeed

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Speaker 5: they do drop out, and suddenly we've got a race

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Speaker 5: that's forty eight for Mom Donnie and forty four for

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Speaker 5: Governor Cuomo if indeed it's a two way race, and

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Speaker 5: enormous if.

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Speaker 4: But in that.

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Speaker 5: Hypothetical race, that's what would happen. So what we're seeing

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Speaker 5: is that voters who currently favor either Adams or Sliwa.

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Speaker 5: They are much more inclined to go with Cuomo than

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Speaker 5: they are to move over to Mondanni. Despite the fact

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Speaker 5: that Mannanni currently in that four way race that you

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Speaker 5: point out, has an enormous twenty two point lead.

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Speaker 4: He leads with young voters, he leads.

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Speaker 5: In the vote rich boroughs of Manhattan and Brooklyn, and

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Speaker 5: right now, even amongst the black voters, a former real

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Speaker 5: bastion of votes for Governor Cuomo, the governor of the

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Speaker 5: former governor, does no better than pull even with Mandani,

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Speaker 5: even amongst black voters in New York City.

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Speaker 3: Fascinating.

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Speaker 2: Now, you call this the big if scenario for a reason.

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Speaker 2: We don't know that this is going to happen, but

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Speaker 2: don I bet your phone's been ringing. This pole is

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Speaker 2: going to put pressure on Curtis Leeway and Eric Adams,

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Speaker 2: who was reportedly talking to President Trump about an ambassadorship.

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Speaker 2: What are you hearing in response to these numbers.

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Speaker 5: Well, absolutely, those numbers are our eye catching. Certainly, it

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Speaker 5: points out that mister Montoni has a ceiling, if you will,

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Speaker 5: he gets forty six percent in a four way he

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Speaker 5: only gets forty eight percent in.

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Speaker 4: A two way, So that big if is truly a

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Speaker 4: big if.

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Speaker 3: But can it happen?

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Speaker 5: And indeed, even if both of those candidates were to

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Speaker 5: decide to drop out, time is quite short.

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Speaker 4: They could very well.

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Speaker 5: Still be on the ballot and still pull some votes

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Speaker 5: even if they say to their voters, please don't vote

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Speaker 5: for me.

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Speaker 4: Currently, both Adams and Slee will say they're in the race.

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Speaker 4: They're not anywhere near an endorsement of former Governor Cuomo.

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Speaker 5: So it remains a certainly something that we're all wanting

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Speaker 5: to talk about, but it doesn't seem to be reality

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Speaker 5: at least today on September to tenth.

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Speaker 2: That's okay, that's right, but we've got some time, as

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Speaker 2: you're suggesting.

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Speaker 3: Curtis sleiwa.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, Eric Adams is one thing, and I

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Speaker 2: know that he's got a complicated relationship with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: People can read into that as they want. He did

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Speaker 2: hold an event last week saying no, we're staying in

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Speaker 2: the race, and that's what you say, and Leah drop

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Speaker 2: out of the race. Curtis Sleewa is a different factor here, though,

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Speaker 2: isn't he. I mean, he's the perpetual candidate for mayor.

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Speaker 2: He's got a whole makeover. He's dropped the beret.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't look like somebody who wants to end this fight.

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Speaker 3: What do you think?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, he's the Republican nominee, and I think he takes

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Speaker 5: a great deal of pride in that he's getting the

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Speaker 5: lion's share of Republican vote in New York City. Albeit

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Speaker 5: that's a small percentage across the Big Apple. But right now,

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Speaker 5: there really isn't any noise about Sliwa dropping out, even

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Speaker 5: you know, some of the few influencers who do have

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Speaker 5: slee He was aire Jack Cassimeteitis being one of them,

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Speaker 5: you know at grocery store, ty you know, Tycoon. He

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Speaker 5: is even saying that he's not personally trying to push

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Speaker 5: Sleuo out of the race. And remember this hypothetical two

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Speaker 5: rays has got two whiffs. Even if current mayor Adams

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Speaker 5: were to drop out, that's not enough votes, according to

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Speaker 5: our poll, to move Cuomo into a competitive position. He

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Speaker 5: needs both if simply Adams drops out and if he continues,

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Speaker 5: and if Cuomo does garner seventy seven percent of the

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Speaker 5: Adam vote, that doesn't even get him halfway to making

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Speaker 5: up this twenty two point gap that he currently suffers.

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Speaker 3: Well, so you just answered my next question.

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Speaker 2: They both got to drop to make this work, unless,

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Speaker 2: of course, things change on the ground. Really interesting story

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Speaker 2: in the New York Times, Don Levy, some of New

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Speaker 2: York's biggest business leaders convened a Tuesday morning event for

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Speaker 2: an urgent gathering in support of Andrew Cuomo, saying the

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Speaker 2: time to act is now. Some of the richest landlords

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Speaker 2: in this city got together in the Seagram Building at

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Speaker 2: the pool room.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: If you hang out in the pool room, Don, you

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Speaker 2: can tell us it's pretty exclusive. I understand to plot

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Speaker 2: the path to city Hall. What role will money play

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Speaker 2: in closing a four point gap if these two drop out?

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Speaker 4: Well, certainly I didn't get an invitation to that meeting.

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Speaker 5: You know, the one thing that our pool is telling

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Speaker 5: us is that there are a lot of New Yorkers,

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Speaker 5: the majority of New Yorkers, who feel as though Andrew

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Speaker 5: Cuomo would be an effective mayror.

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Speaker 4: Everybody knows who Andrew Cuomo is.

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Speaker 5: Everybody saw him as a longtime governor of the State

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Speaker 5: of New York, and actually more voters feel as he

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Speaker 5: would be effective than do mister MONTDONI, you know, a

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Speaker 5: small gap but that's where Cuomo's strength is. The second

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Speaker 5: place where Cuomo has some strength is of those voters

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Speaker 5: who feel as though crime is the number one issue.

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Speaker 4: Cuomo does particularly well.

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Speaker 5: But when you turn the table on affordability, as our

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Speaker 5: current governor was discussing a few minutes ago, that's where

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Speaker 5: mon Donnie has tremendous strength. Of those voters who feel

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Speaker 5: that affordability the costs of living is the number one issue,

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Speaker 5: that's where Mondannie does extremely well.

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Speaker 4: And it's I don't.

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Speaker 5: Really see right now how additional money flowing to Cuomo,

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Speaker 5: additional ads that would be generated by those dollars, is

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Speaker 5: going to bridge that gap right now. Currently, mister mon

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Speaker 5: Donnie has a positive favorability with voters, but Andrew Cuomo

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Speaker 5: has a negative favorability. Mondnnie is seen as inspirational. He's

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Speaker 5: seen as someone who cares about people like you. He's

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Speaker 5: seen as having good character. Despite the New Yorker's belief

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Speaker 5: that Andrew Cromo would be effective, he trails Mondani, and

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Speaker 5: he trails by quite a bit on issues like character, empathy,

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Speaker 5: and inspirational qualities.

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Speaker 2: Wow, this is really interesting. We've only got about thirty

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Speaker 2: seconds left here. Don but to your point, and you're

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Speaker 2: putting numbers on this overall support for some of the

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Speaker 2: things that Republicans and even Democrats criticize. Mondombi for rent freeze,

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Speaker 2: rent stabilized department seventy percent, support free buses there we

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Speaker 2: go sixty percent, increasing taxes on the wealthy sixty eight percent.

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Speaker 2: If Andrew Cuomo found himself in a head to head here,

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Speaker 2: he'd have to move to the left.

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Speaker 5: No, he would have to move to the left, and

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Speaker 5: he'd have to try to do pop the balloon that

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Speaker 5: is Mondomie's support.

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Speaker 4: There is a weakness there. Two thirds of New Yorkers

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Speaker 4: feel as.

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Speaker 5: Though it's unlikely that Mondamie, if elected, we'll get all those.

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Speaker 4: Programs across the finish line.

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Speaker 5: So I think that Clomo is going to run effectiveness realism.

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Speaker 5: I can get things done, I can keep you safe,

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Speaker 5: and I can accomplish things that actually can be done,

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Speaker 5: rather than just promising things that can't be done.

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Speaker 4: There's a bit of an opening forum there.

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Speaker 2: For ran Levy Research Institute. We missed you done. This

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Speaker 2: is Bloomberg. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll

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Speaker 2: have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: A crab on the menu last night for President Trump,

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Speaker 2: and most of the cabinet was there.

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Speaker 3: They packed in the motor cave.

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Speaker 2: Imagine if you were going to your neighbor's house, literally

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Speaker 2: your next door neighbor's house, and you got in the

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Speaker 2: car and drove there for dinner. That's what they did

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Speaker 2: last evening, despite the fact that the President says there

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Speaker 2: is literally no crime left in Washington, d C. The quote,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't have done this three months ago. Now it's

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Speaker 2: as safe as there is. Joe's Stone Crab. Maybe you've

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Speaker 2: been there. If you visited Washington, DC, you know they've

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Speaker 2: got The original was in Miami. I think there are

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Speaker 2: a couple around the country, but the one here in

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Speaker 2: Washington is like a block away from the White House,

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Speaker 2: and it's become a big maga hangout. It's a big

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Speaker 2: place to see and be seen and spend a lot

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Speaker 2: of money, a lot of bucks on expensive wine, steak

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Speaker 2: and crab.

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Speaker 3: They all rolled out last night.

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Speaker 2: The President was there, the Secretary of Defense, vice President,

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Speaker 2: the Secretary of State, to make a point that you

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Speaker 2: could walk outside freely and go spend a lot of

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Speaker 2: money at an expensive restaurant one block away from the

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Speaker 2: White House.

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Speaker 3: Here's the President on his way in.

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Speaker 6: I wouldn't have done this, said three months ago, four

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Speaker 6: months ago.

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Speaker 3: I certainly wouldn't have done it a year ago. Now,

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Speaker 3: this was one of the most unsafe cities.

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Speaker 4: In the country.

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Speaker 6: Now it's as safe as there is in the country home.

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Speaker 6: So we're here with cabinet members having dinner and everybody

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Speaker 6: should go out of Restaurants now are booming. People are

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Speaker 6: going out to dinner where they didn't go out for years,

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Speaker 6: and it's a safe city. And I just want to

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Speaker 6: thank the National Guard.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I just got to say this because I actually

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Speaker 2: live here. Washington, d C. Is one of the best

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Speaker 2: restaurant cities in the country. Wasn't always like that, but

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Speaker 2: it is now, and people go out. You can't even

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Speaker 2: get a seat in a restaurant. That's been the case

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Speaker 2: since I came back to town five years ago. Just

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Speaker 2: want to be clear about that, And yeah, sometimes the

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Speaker 2: wife and I go to Joe's. Stonecrab never had to

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Speaker 2: worry too much about security because again it's a block

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Speaker 2: from the White House. And there's a big question right

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Speaker 2: now about what comes next. Because, by the way, today

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Speaker 2: is the day that the thirty day federalization or whatever

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Speaker 2: we're calling it, the federal takeover of law enforcement here

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Speaker 2: in the District of Columbia expires, and the President promised

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Speaker 2: last evening to announce the next city. It won't be Chicago,

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Speaker 2: he said he's likely going to go to a red

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Speaker 2: state where he feels the presence of federal law enforcement

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Speaker 2: and National Guard troops are more welcome. So let's get

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Speaker 2: to the panel here about this little bit. Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: is with US Bloomberg Politics contributor of course, Republican strategist

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Speaker 2: and partner at Stone Court Capital, and we add the

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Speaker 2: voice of Afi at Heschol, director of External Affairs at

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Governors Association AFIRE. A. Welcome to our conversation. Rick,

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Speaker 2: It's great to have you. I bet Rick, you've been

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Speaker 2: to Joe's a couple of times here in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 2: Was that progress for the President to be able to

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Speaker 2: dine there last evening.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think for the President to go out to

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Speaker 7: any restaurant in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 3: Is progress.

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Speaker 7: I mean, other than the restaurant State Joint in his

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Speaker 7: old hotel, the Trump Hotel in his first term, this

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Speaker 7: is the first time he's been out to a restaurant

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Speaker 7: in Washington. So you know, I guess he was afraid

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Speaker 7: of the high crime, even though he has the biggest

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Speaker 7: security detail on the face of the earth, but he

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Speaker 7: felt safe enough to go. Glad he was there. It's

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Speaker 7: good for the restaurant business in Washington. It has been

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Speaker 7: relatively slow to recover from COVID, but as you point

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Speaker 7: out now, it's thriving, and we want to continue to

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Speaker 7: thrive because we think people would benefit themselves by coming

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Speaker 7: and visiting Washington and going in places like Joe's. I

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Speaker 7: would say Joe's in Miami has better stone crabs, but.

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Speaker 3: There's plenty to eat on the menu.

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Speaker 2: That's for sure. You know, we've come a long way

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Speaker 2: from McDonald's. Remember on the campaign trail, the President had

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Speaker 2: the apron on. He was hanging out the takeout window

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Speaker 2: there the drive through. He was making fries with the

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Speaker 2: he had a blast that day. You get a large

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Speaker 2: stone crab. I'm just looking at the market card here.

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Speaker 2: It was ninety four to ninety five last night. A

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Speaker 2: pound and a half Alaskan red king crab is one

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Speaker 2: hundred and seventy five dollars and they got everything.

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Speaker 3: So pull me in off the ledge here Ofira.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you dare go out to eat

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Speaker 2: in Washington, but it does kind of make you wonder.

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Speaker 2: It was Rick's right. That was the first time this

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Speaker 2: president has ever gone out to eat anywhere other than

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Speaker 2: his own hotel in Washington. Would he feel differently if

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Speaker 2: he want out more?

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Speaker 8: Well, I think you said that he had crab on

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Speaker 8: the menu, but I think there was I got a

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Speaker 8: space the reception that he got. You did that, Yes,

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Speaker 8: I had to go, and there was no love for

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Speaker 8: him at the US Open either. To make another pun,

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Speaker 8: I think the reception he's getting when he goes out

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Speaker 8: in public has not been great and kind of been

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Speaker 8: a reflection of how people are feeling about his agenda.

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Speaker 8: But to your point as well, I was going out

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Speaker 8: to restaurants in DC. This is a great food city,

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Speaker 8: but I know restaurant owners in this town have been saying, actually,

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Speaker 8: the presence of the National Guard here has been a

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Speaker 8: decrease on people feeling the ability to go out, and

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Speaker 8: so you know, the mission's over according to him. But

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Speaker 8: I think there obviously has work to do on public safety,

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Speaker 8: but I think the manner in which he's going about

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Speaker 8: it has proved a little unpopular.

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Speaker 2: Well, the mission is over, and so is the thirty

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Speaker 2: day period here. There appears to be no appetite in

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Speaker 2: Congress to extend this. It would take an Act of

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Speaker 2: Congress in some form of legislation. The Speaker says he

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Speaker 2: doesn't want want to do that. But Muriel Bowser, the

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Speaker 2: mayor of the city, is in a peculiar position here,

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Speaker 2: and she says that she'll continue to work with the

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Speaker 2: White House. What's this going to look like months from now?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think collaboration is always a good thing.

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Speaker 8: We want to see people working together, and that includes

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Speaker 8: with the president. I think governors also would welcome working

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Speaker 8: in tandem with the president. I think the difference here

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Speaker 8: is the president's taking on of this action without collaborating

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Speaker 8: and working together with folks state and local leaders who

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Speaker 8: know the place's best. And I think that is really

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Speaker 8: what's proved unpopular. I think state and local leaders know

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Speaker 8: exactly what they need to keep people safe, know what

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Speaker 8: kind of resources are necessary, and I think the way

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Speaker 8: he's been deploying the National Guard has kind of gone

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Speaker 8: against that.

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Speaker 2: Well, it looks like we're going to be going somewhere, Rick,

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Speaker 2: And we might find out today. A president told reporters

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Speaker 2: last evening is finalizing negotiations with a Republican run state

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Speaker 2: instead of going to Illinois. A lot of folks think

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Speaker 2: that might be Louisiana, where we would find New Orleans,

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Speaker 2: of course, for a crackdown. The Attorney General Pam Bondi

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Speaker 2: told Fox News last night they are a progressive city

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Speaker 2: into Chicago, and they don't want the President's help. That's

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Speaker 2: on them. So we're going to a city who wants

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Speaker 2: us there. What's going to happen next here with Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump following the DC experiment?

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Speaker 7: Rick, Yeah, Look, I mean it's as you described. We'll

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Speaker 7: wait and see. I doubt if it's going to be

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Speaker 7: too much of a surprise. I know the governor Louisiana

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Speaker 7: has been actually soliciting the President please come down here,

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Speaker 7: I mean, bring your truth. We'll have a gayl time

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Speaker 7: we'll go to Commander's palace. Maybe Donald Trump will dine

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Speaker 7: out one more time. And yet yeah, I mean, look,

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Speaker 7: the experiment worked in DC.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 7: Muriel Bowser, I think is the one to watch here,

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Speaker 7: not Donald Trump. She actually figured out how to handle

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump coming in, you know, and sort of mowing

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Speaker 7: down the the standards under which we thought the government

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Speaker 7: was going to interact with the DC community.

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Speaker 3: And now it's over.

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Speaker 7: I mean, ostensibly the speaker said, we're out of here,

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Speaker 7: no more reason to have an emergency. And in a

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Speaker 7: Republican administration, in a state like Louisiana, these troops, who

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Speaker 7: are America's best should be welcome with open arms, and

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Speaker 7: hopefully they'll have a nice impact on the New Orleans

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Speaker 7: crime scene or anywhere else they go, right, And I

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Speaker 7: think that the Bowers are example of not making it,

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Speaker 7: you know, a battle line in politics is a much

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Speaker 7: better approach to dealing with what is a very very

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Speaker 7: intrusive federal government.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I wonder if the National Guard troops were seeing right

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Speaker 2: now patrolling the streets of Washington will still be there tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: We'll have to wait and see how this unfolds. A

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Speaker 2: lot of them have been spending time picking up trash

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Speaker 2: and directing traffic.

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Speaker 3: From what we've seen.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Brendan and I agree, if the President's

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Speaker 2: going to New Orleans has got to go to Friday

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Speaker 2: lunch at galaswise, it's just this has really become a

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Speaker 2: very hungry program of FIRA. If it's not Illinois, You're

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Speaker 2: of course coming to us from your perch at the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Governors Association.

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Speaker 3: Is this a huge win for JB. Pritsker? Is this

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Speaker 3: another model of how to approach Donald Trump?

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Speaker 8: Well, I think JB. Pritzker used his voice end platform

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Speaker 8: to do what he said, which was protect the people

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Speaker 8: of Illinois. And I would remind people watching at home

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Speaker 8: the commander in chief of a national Guard is the governor,

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Speaker 8: not the President of the United States, which is why

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Speaker 8: I keep harping on this. If Governor Pritsker saw the

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Speaker 8: need to deploy the National Guard in Illinois, I think

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Speaker 8: that's one thing. But he was very clear that he

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Speaker 8: in no way made that request and did not want

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Speaker 8: that from the President, and so I think, yeah, victory

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Speaker 8: for him, and I frankly, I think the President of

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Speaker 8: the United States should continue respecting the authority of all

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Speaker 8: governors and how they choose to utilize their national guards.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you wonder, Rick, if we could get to a

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Speaker 2: position where you've got a governor with his national guard

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Speaker 2: standing off against troops that the president sent into a state.

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Speaker 2: The different cities or any city is different than Washington,

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Speaker 2: DC when it comes to this. Then again, we saw

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Speaker 2: what happened in LA. So how would that direct the

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Speaker 2: president from choosing the next spot to deploy these troops?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think go fair is right.

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Speaker 7: I mean, I think you want to respect the governor's rights.

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Speaker 7: And you know, it's nice to be on a program

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Speaker 7: with a Democrat who thinks states rights are a big issue.

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Speaker 7: I think they are too. And uh and I and

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Speaker 7: I applaud that approach. And again I think that that

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Speaker 7: that the last thing you want to do. And maybe

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Speaker 7: the Printzker example is the way to go. But it

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Speaker 7: didn't work for California and Gavin Newsom basically took the

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Speaker 7: same approach, don't come here, these are my troops, and

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Speaker 7: he got bowled over and he lost in court. And

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Speaker 7: so rather than fight that fight, you know, I think

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump, who wants to use crime as an issue politically, right,

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Speaker 7: that's what this is all about and and he's found

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Speaker 7: a mechanism to do that with government resources that ultimately

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Speaker 7: he can control.

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Speaker 3: And I think that Democrats have to.

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Speaker 7: Find a better way than to just, you know, look

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Speaker 7: like they're getting in this trap on crime again where

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Speaker 7: it's like, no, no, we're fine here.

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Speaker 3: You know in Chicago where fifty.

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Speaker 7: Four gun violations were counted last weekend. Nobody's going to

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Speaker 7: buy that at the ballot box. So don't give Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump too much room on crime, because he's going to

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Speaker 7: take it. And he's taken it right now.

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Speaker 2: We'll announce it probably tomorrow, he said when he came

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Speaker 2: out of Joe's stonecrab last night. We're working it out

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Speaker 2: with the governor of a certain state that would love

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Speaker 2: us to be there. It's New Orleans, right, Is that

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Speaker 2: what you're expecting you know better than me, Joe, Yeah, Well,

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Speaker 2: you've got a red state in the city with a

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Speaker 2: crime issue.

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Speaker 3: It seems like that might be the one.

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Speaker 2: As Rick mentioned, the governor of Louisiana has actually been

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Speaker 2: asking for it. That's the path of least resistance, it

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Speaker 2: seems to me.

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Speaker 3: If we're going to keep.

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Speaker 8: Doing this, right man, I remember there was CNN reporting

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Speaker 8: about this that there are several cities in bread states

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Speaker 8: that have higher crime Washington, DC, where maybe this approach

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Speaker 8: would be welcome.

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Speaker 2: Does that give the president credibility to go into a

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Speaker 2: city in a red state or a city with a

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Speaker 2: Republican mayor and make a stand here.

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Speaker 8: Well, again, I think this is up to local leaders.

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Speaker 8: So if the governor of Louisiana says he'd like to

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Speaker 8: work with the President in this manner, great, But I

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Speaker 8: would also go back to what Rich said. Governor Newsom

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Speaker 8: was actually successful in court suing President Trump over his

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Speaker 8: deployment of the National Guard into California. I think the

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Speaker 8: court system did agree with that that was an overreach.

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Speaker 2: Really interesting conversation Offiria Heskell and Rick Davis. Stay with

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Speaker 2: us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming

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Speaker 2: up after this.

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00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

440
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa. Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

441
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 2: Remarkable story overseas breaking out in Poland. This emerged late

442
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 2: yesterday as NATO fighter jets were forced to shut down

443
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 2: Russian drones, a swarm of Russian drones that violated Poland's

444
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: airspace just as Russia was attacking targets in Ukraine. NATO

445
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: officials Poland's military reporting this Wednesday a rare clash realizing

446
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 2: these were unmanned drones between Moscow and militaries from NATO.

447
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 2: We did hear from NATO's Secretary General Mark Ruda on

448
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 2: the Poland attack.

449
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 3: Let's listen to what he said.

450
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 9: The North Atlantic Council met this morning and discussed the

451
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 9: situation in light of Poland's request for consultations under Article

452
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 9: four of the Washington Treaty. Allies expressed solidarity with Poland

453
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 9: and denounced Russia's reckless behavior. A full assessment of the

454
00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 9: incident is ongoing. What is clear is that violation last

455
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 9: night is not an isolated incident.

456
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 2: Rudi said, Polish F sixteen's, Dutch F thirty five's Italian

457
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 2: a wax surveillance aircraft. We're all involved in responding to

458
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 2: the breach of Polish airspace. With US now to talk

459
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 2: about this and other hotspots in the world. As Michael Allen,

460
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 2: Managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, former Special assistant to

461
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 2: President George W. Bush in the national security sector. Michael,

462
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 2: it's great to have you here. We go again with

463
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 2: a new area of concern and realizing that Vladimir Putin

464
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 2: likes to push the line here a little bit, but

465
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 2: we're invoking in Article four. What does that mean for

466
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 2: the state of NATO and what did Vladimir Putin just do?

467
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 3: Well?

468
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 10: This is a very serious incursion by the Russians. I

469
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 10: think it is designed to test NATO's resolve, and we

470
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 10: also have to look at the context that we're in.

471
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 10: We are and seemingly Trump is more frustrated with the

472
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 10: Russians of late. We're looking at what does security guarantees

473
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 10: look like? Does that include a Western tripwire force inside

474
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 10: of Ukraine, something that Vladimir Putin has warned us against doing.

475
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,679
Speaker 10: And we're also apparently getting more serious about sanctions. So

476
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 10: I think what they're trying to do, Putin in particular,

477
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 10: is to warn us of the dangers of confrontation, to

478
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 10: intimidate us, and to fracture our resolve. That's got to

479
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 10: be what he's after right now, because I think he

480
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 10: feels rather defensive because he sees Trump seemingly realizing that

481
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 10: they're disrespecting the United States and turning on us.

482
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 11: The United States is part of NATO in theory, there

483
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 11: is a question lately as the US starts to pull

484
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 11: some of the security aid in Eastern European countries that

485
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 11: border Russia. But just how tight that resolve is. What

486
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 11: does Donald Trump do next?

487
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 3: I think this is where we're going to. The rubber's

488
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 3: going to meet the road.

489
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 10: You've heard Trump in years past insist that NATO begin

490
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 10: to pay their fair share. Trump won that at the

491
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 10: beginning of his term, so I think he's flipped a

492
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 10: little bit. I don't think he wants to get out

493
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 10: of NATO. Think he wants to see the Europeans step up.

494
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 10: He feels like this is something he's achieved already as

495
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,479
Speaker 10: part of his national security foreign policy. But this is

496
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 10: just the type of exigency that the Russians are trying

497
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 10: to test us with, which is, do far away items

498
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 10: or incursions or attacks? Does that implicate US national security?

499
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 10: Should it? Should American soldiers be involved in this type

500
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 10: of work. That's the type of debate he wants to

501
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 10: provoke here. Within the United States because he knows we

502
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 10: have sort of neo isolationist sentiment right now, doubting about

503
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 10: America's role.

504
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 3: In the world.

505
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,479
Speaker 2: The reaction from at least one Republican on Capitol Hill,

506
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 2: Joe Wilson of South Carolina, posted on x Russia is

507
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 2: attacking NATO ally Poland with Iranian drones less than a

508
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 2: week after the President hosted the Polish president at the

509
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,479
Speaker 2: White House. This is an act of war? Is that

510
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 2: how you see this?

511
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 4: No, I don't.

512
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 10: We need to see if this continues, and we need

513
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 10: to I mean, obviously we need to take it seriously.

514
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 10: But calling it an active war I think goes way

515
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 10: too far. I think we back up from that. It's

516
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 10: hard to there's no other place to go. That suggests

517
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 10: that we need to hit back militarily immediately. I don't

518
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 10: think that's right at all. Let's see if this is

519
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 10: part of a larger aggressive pattern. They have had minor

520
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 10: incursions in the past. I think this is the most

521
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 10: major of them. Let's see where this goes. There's no

522
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 10: doubt that people are signaling to the Russians today, easy,

523
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 10: be careful, don't provocus. You can't win this. But Let's

524
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 10: see if this continues.

525
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 11: Where do the Europeans go from this? Amigo Macron, Georgia Maloney,

526
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 11: Christian Friedrich Merrit I should say, what are they thinking

527
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 11: right now?

528
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 10: I think they're thinking. This renews the spirit and the

529
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 10: conviction that we developed at the beginning of the second

530
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 10: Trump administration that we really need to spend more, revitalize

531
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 10: our defense industrial base, and have greater agency over our

532
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 10: own security within Europe because Russia is aggressive. Even if

533
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 10: the United States isn't trying to back away from Europe,

534
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 10: which I think we are even under Trump, if not

535
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 10: getting out of data, I think they're thinking to themselves,

536
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 10: this is a serious situation. This is going to continue,

537
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 10: and we have got to pay more and do more

538
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 10: in service of our own security.

539
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 2: It sounds like the President is wondering exactly what this

540
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 2: means as well. He posted on truth Social what's with

541
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go exclamation point.

542
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: I don't know where we're going there, Michael, but there

543
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: are questions about where we're going with Israel as well.

544
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 2: After striking Doha targets in Doha yesterday, where the actual

545
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 2: negotiators were and the largest US base in the Middle

546
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 2: East is located. The President has made clear that he's

547
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 2: angry about it. He posted on truth Social not a

548
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 2: decision made by me. What does he do with Benjamin

549
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: NETANYAHUO on this one?

550
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 10: Well, I think he's frustrated with Netanyahu because Trump feels

551
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 10: like he's getting closer to a hostage deal. He had

552
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 10: just put out a big tweet on Sunday afternoon saying

553
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 10: Israel's agreed to a certain stet of criteria. Now it's

554
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 10: Amas's turn, and I think he sees what Netanyahu is

555
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 10: doing is boat rocking. It's not that it should be

556
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 10: completely surprising that the Israelis are engaging and yet another

557
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 10: decapitation strike of a leadership target and a terrorist organization,

558
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 10: but this was a little bit surprising the timing of it.

559
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 10: All the United States is in the harness trying to

560
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 10: negotiate a good deal. I understand we had a terrorist

561
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 10: attack in Jerusalem authored by Hamas the day before the attack,

562
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 10: but still this just feels like it's something that's testing

563
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 10: the President's patience in a moment when Israel ought to

564
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 10: be looking of how are we going to settle this down?

565
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 10: But they're clearly not, at least Ninyas clearly not in

566
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 10: that frame of mind.

567
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 11: There are very few places in the Middle East where

568
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 11: sees bar negotiations actually happen with actual representatives of Hamas.

569
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 11: Doha is one of the very few places where that

570
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 11: can occur. Is this a message that a ceasefires ultimately

571
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 11: off the table or not doable?

572
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 10: It possibly, But there's another way to look at it too,

573
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 10: which is I think that the Israelis have been frustrated

574
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 10: throughout that they're negotiating with people who are in luxury

575
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 10: hotels in a far away city from Hamas. I think

576
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 10: they have felt that if they were negotiating with someone

577
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 10: inside of Gaza, who was suffering, who was under pressure,

578
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 10: who was dodging bullets and bombs, that they may be

579
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 10: more conditioned to compromise sooner than the political leadership who

580
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 10: have nothing to do with the wartime instruments inside of Gaza.

581
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 3: So maybe there's.

582
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 10: An argument in the medium term that as long as

583
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 10: you're taking hardliners off the chess board, maybe this will

584
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 10: be easier to get from A to B.

585
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 2: What do you make of the lack of notification that

586
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 2: the reporting from Axios makes you wonder that the US

587
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: actually saw Israeli aircraft on the move, inquired and we

588
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 2: were told the missiles.

589
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 3: Had already been launched. That's not the way this is

590
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 3: supposed to work, is it.

591
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 10: You would think that we would have had greater we

592
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 10: would have moved more in concert on this. These Raellis

593
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 10: must have known that Trump wasn't going to like this

594
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 10: very much, even if we don't like it. I didn't

595
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 10: like the suggestion of the United States saying we're going

596
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 10: to call Cutter and warn them this is coming to me.

597
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 10: That's not what it was appropriate in this type of stituation.

598
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 3: We shouldn't have expected that call.

599
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 4: Well.

600
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 10: I think now these Ralis are thinking it's smart that

601
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 10: we didn't do that call, because we can't necessarily trust

602
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 10: the White House to keep it to ourselves. I mean,

603
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 10: if they're telling us something in confidence and we're saying

604
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 10: we'll go call the targets of the of the bomb,

605
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 10: I don't know.

606
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 3: That doesn't feel right to me.

607
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 11: Should we be bracing for fallout from Iran from the

608
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 11: Hoho thies from Lebanon?

609
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 3: What are the ripple effects here?

610
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 10: So Iran I think is still trying to figure out

611
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 10: what weapons they do have. I know they're going to

612
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 10: bounce back sooner or later with their proxy forces. I

613
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 10: don't know that they're ready yet. I still think Hesbola

614
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 10: is on its back foot. If anything happens, I think

615
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 10: it would come from the Huthi. There might be a

616
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 10: longer term implication for bombing Doha that the Israelis will

617
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 10: have to press. But you know, as the Israelis are

618
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 10: fond of saying, they have seven fronts ongoing in the

619
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 10: wars within the Middle East and they have to keep

620
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 10: their enemy sort of on their back foot.

621
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's great to have you back, Michael. Don't be

622
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 3: a stranger.

623
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 2: Michael Allen always with interesting thoughts from Beacon Global strategies.

624
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington will point you to the

625
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 2: late edition to Balance of Power. Senator Mike Rounds will

626
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 2: be joining CREEDYE and I that starts at five pm

627
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 2: Eastern Time. Will distill what else has happened today in

628
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 2: the Capitol alongside Credi Goopta. I'm Joe Matthew. We'll see

629
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 2: it back here a couple hours only on Bloomberg TV

630
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 2: and Radio. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

631
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,360
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632
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633
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634
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