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Speaker 2: co slash audio. All right, wellcome to hoops tonight. You're
Speaker 2: at the volume. Hay Friday, everybody. I hope all of
Speaker 2: you guys have had a great week. We have a
Speaker 2: very special guest today, my friend Sam's Fondiari, who covers
Speaker 2: the Warriors with the Light Years podcast. They the Warriors
Speaker 2: have played twenty games with Jimmy Butler. They have a
Speaker 2: little bit of a break here before they play against
Speaker 2: the New Orleans Pelicans tonight and I'm expecting Steph Curry
Speaker 2: to make his return. But I thought it was a
Speaker 2: great time for us to just kind of zoom out
Speaker 2: and take a look at the early returns of Jimmy.
Speaker 1: Butler with the Warriors.
Speaker 2: I was talking about this on the radio the other day,
Speaker 2: But the Warriors and the Lakers to me, have undergone
Speaker 2: such complete turnover in their play style and what they're
Speaker 2: capable of over the course of the time since the
Speaker 2: deadline that we almost have to completely reevaluate them and
Speaker 2: what they're capable of. And I could think of nobody
Speaker 2: better than Sam. First of all, how are you, man?
Speaker 2: It's been a long time since we've done a pod together,
Speaker 2: but I'm looking forward to this. It's gonna be fun.
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm good overall, good of recording this. After the
Speaker 1: Heat game, that was an emotional game. I don't know
Speaker 1: how else to put it. It felt like a big
Speaker 1: one and then it felt pretty deflating. But overall, it's
Speaker 1: been good in Warriors Land since they made the Jimmy
Speaker 1: Butler trade. Technically twenty one games. He sat one of them,
Speaker 1: but I'll take sixteen and five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. He did sit out one of them.
Speaker 2: I was joking with you last night because I've watched
Speaker 2: quite a bit of Heat lately, just because they've had
Speaker 2: a few national TV games and we've covered him on
Speaker 2: the show a little bit, and they've been so lifeless.
Speaker 2: And then last night they just had it. They had
Speaker 2: the verb and you said to me, and it's like
Speaker 2: you and I every time we've talked about the game,
Speaker 2: we've always been just drawn to just competitiveness and competitors
Speaker 2: and that nasty streak, And like you were, like, you
Speaker 2: know what, I got handed to the to the Heat.
Speaker 2: They wanted it like they they they clearly this meant
Speaker 2: something to them, and they went after they got it done.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to me, if you don't understand how
Speaker 1: good Bam out of Bio is, throw that game on.
Speaker 1: He guarded Jimmy Butler, which like how many starting centers
Speaker 1: can just you know, you can decide, you know from
Speaker 1: opening tip, we're gonna have you guard the other team's
Speaker 1: star wing. It's like him and Draymond and Lo and Behold,
Speaker 1: those are two guys who tend to punch above their
Speaker 1: weight in the playoffs. Every year they make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: So yeah, you know, hat tip to them heat culture.
Speaker 1: It's a real thing. Even if I was wondering if
Speaker 1: it was a real thing after they went on a
Speaker 1: losing streak when they lost Jimmy, It's still a real thing.
Speaker 1: Kat Riley is a Hall of Famer for a reason.
Speaker 2: So we've had twenty games. I you know, I think
Speaker 2: the experience of being a true fan in basketball is
Speaker 2: really unique. I've been kind of embracing it because I
Speaker 2: know when Lebron retires, I'm going to struggle with that
Speaker 2: because I like, I won't really have that type of
Speaker 2: fanhood anymore because I live in twos on Arizona. I
Speaker 2: don't really have a team, so to speak, And when
Speaker 2: Lebron retires, I just won't have that kind of like
Speaker 2: sentimental attachment to anything. And so rooting for Luka doncicch like,
Speaker 2: actually rooting for Luka Doncicic has given me such a
Speaker 2: unique experience, like learning about him as a basketball player.
Speaker 2: I think, I think truly rooting for a player you
Speaker 2: just learn so much. And so you've I've been truly
Speaker 2: rooting for Jimmy Butler. Now for twenty games. What has
Speaker 2: that experience been like? What have you been surprised by
Speaker 2: what have you really loved about his game? Just talk
Speaker 2: a little bit about what that's been like.
Speaker 1: I mean, he was one of my favorite non Warriors
Speaker 1: over the last decade. I always found myself rooting for
Speaker 1: the Heat in the playoffs, you know, Eastern Conference. I
Speaker 1: have no attachment to anyone, and I just love the
Speaker 1: way they play, and you know, he's had some memorable
Speaker 1: playoff modes, so I felt like I knew him. But
Speaker 1: to your point, it's just not the same as when
Speaker 1: you're watching every game opening tip to the end, and
Speaker 1: so the things that jump out to me are like
Speaker 1: I thought he would be a good fit on the
Speaker 1: Warriors because there's such a premium on IQ and ball
Speaker 1: movement in passing, and it's gone like five levels above
Speaker 1: what I thought it would be. I thought there'd also
Speaker 1: be a little friction because he's traditionally been a little
Speaker 1: of an ISO player and the Warriors are traditionally not
Speaker 1: that type of team, and it's been the complete opposite.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's like essentially playing like Andrea Gudala, but
Speaker 1: with the ability to get to the rim and the
Speaker 1: free throw line. So that's been surprising. Other than that,
Speaker 1: I don't know that the other aspects of it have
Speaker 1: necessarily been that surprising. We've gone through kind of the
Speaker 1: ebbs and flow of how he asserts himself. He's an
Speaker 1: interesting player in the fact that he has a superstar
Speaker 1: impact on the game, Like when you look at all
Speaker 1: the advanced metrics, he always grades out as one of
Speaker 1: the ten to fifteen best players just in terms of
Speaker 1: impacting winning, But he's not really an offensive superstar. You
Speaker 1: think of those playoff moments where he scored forty plus
Speaker 1: and you think he's more of kind of your traditional
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go get a bucket type of guy, and
Speaker 1: that's been the thing that watching him more, it's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: there'll be moments he does it, but that's really not
Speaker 1: his game at all. So I guess that's kind of
Speaker 1: been the other surprising thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's fascinating because I think you could
Speaker 2: make the case that the war are best equipped to
Speaker 2: pull superstar level winning impact out of Jimmy Butler in
Speaker 2: this phase of his career. You sent me some numbers earlier,
Speaker 2: and we're gonna talk about it with uh with Jonathan
Speaker 2: Kaminga here in a little bit, But just some of
Speaker 2: the difference and on off numbers between him with kaminga
Speaker 2: versus a guy like Gie Santos, where it's like crisp
Speaker 2: quick decision making that all fits within the flow of
Speaker 2: what they do in their five out offense, versus a
Speaker 2: guy that like has more of a specific lane that
Speaker 2: he thrives in and if things are operating in that lane,
Speaker 2: then he looks super impactful. But when it gets outside
Speaker 2: of that, he can struggle. And like I think with
Speaker 2: Jimmy's versatility, there is a downside, and I think we
Speaker 2: saw a little bit of it last night in the
Speaker 2: sense that, like, if you with that without Steph, if
Speaker 2: he's entirely out of the picture because he's injured, you're
Speaker 2: not gonna get twenty five and eight from him every night.
Speaker 2: That's not necessarily a level he can get to any more.
Speaker 2: But within within the context of Steph being available, he's
Speaker 2: more than capable of lifting these bench units. And they've
Speaker 2: been really good this year with Steph off the floor
Speaker 2: with Jimmy on like, they've been astonishingly good. I want
Speaker 2: to say the net rating is almost plus twenty per
Speaker 2: one hundred possessions. They're killing teams. In that context, it
Speaker 2: is a little bit of a different journey, and I
Speaker 2: think there's some like if I was playing Devil's advocate
Speaker 2: on the trade, I would say, over the course of
Speaker 2: the rest of this year and next year, when Steph
Speaker 2: misses time, this team is going to look rough because
Speaker 2: of the fact that Jimmy is not necessarily the guy
Speaker 2: that can scale up in that specific ability. But ultimately
Speaker 2: that doesn't matter because this team isn't accomplishing anything unless
Speaker 2: Steph is healthy and available anyway, and in that context,
Speaker 2: his versatility is a superstar trade and it does pull
Speaker 2: everything together. You mentioned the Andre Gudala piece to me,
Speaker 2: where you see so much of that is just like
Speaker 2: his nose for the ball and his ability to make
Speaker 2: reads in screening situations, when to slip or when to curl,
Speaker 2: when to do all these little different things. One of
Speaker 2: the things from watching Jimmy very closely with the Warriors
Speaker 2: that stood out to me is he's one of the
Speaker 2: best people in the league at high pointing the basketball.
Speaker 2: So like in a lot of the switching that teams
Speaker 2: use against Golden State, he'll end up with these like
Speaker 2: inside seals and they'll float the ball up and he
Speaker 2: just gets it every damn time. And that has allowed
Speaker 2: him to kind of like manufacture pressure on the rim
Speaker 2: off the ball, which has been a big part of
Speaker 2: his like spacing alongside of Steph. And so think like
Speaker 2: I think the part that is you mentioned it is
Speaker 2: pressure to the rim, and that's really the key his
Speaker 2: superstar trait offensively that he's bringing, and it's coming through
Speaker 2: all these different things as a read and react player,
Speaker 2: Ceiling posting, ISOs, all that kind of stuff. He applies
Speaker 2: real consistent night to night rim pressure next to Steph,
Speaker 2: and that is unlocking a lot of that offensive upside.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And and to your point on the IQ. The
Speaker 1: game then also sticks in my mind from a defensive standpoint,
Speaker 1: is the one against the Milwaukee Bucks. It's called a
Speaker 1: week ago. Now, Steph sat that game. You know, they
Speaker 1: just lost to the yokch list Nuggets, just an all
Speaker 1: round bad loss, Like you shouldn't lose those games at home, right,
Speaker 1: And then so then they go play Milwaukee and they
Speaker 1: sit Steph because he's kind of banged up, and so
Speaker 1: you know, you think it's gonna be lost, and it's
Speaker 1: the opposite. And that was probably Draymond Green's like best
Speaker 1: defensive game of the year. He took Jannis completely out
Speaker 1: of it. And the first thing Draymond said in postgame
Speaker 1: is it's easier for me to do that and ignore
Speaker 1: help obligations when I have someone like Jimmy, who you know,
Speaker 1: can just say I got you, I'll take care of that.
Speaker 1: You just you meet him in half court, you take
Speaker 1: them one on one, that sort of defensive stuff, and
Speaker 1: that's something they've been missing for literally since they had
Speaker 1: you know, Andre Goodal or Andrew Bogan and just like this,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of embarrassment of riches and terms of
Speaker 1: like high IQ defenders. They finally have someone who can
Speaker 1: organize them and get them going in addition to Draymond,
Speaker 1: and so yeah, to your point, like he does fit
Speaker 1: exactly what the Warriors need and fits exactly perfectly next
Speaker 1: to Steph and Draymond on both sides of the ball. Honestly, now,
Speaker 1: it puts a lot of pressure on the other pieces
Speaker 1: around them, because I like the way that three man
Speaker 1: construct works. But I'm also not naive to the fact
Speaker 1: that there are certain weaknesses that need to be masked
Speaker 1: by younger legs, by shooting, by defense, some other things there.
Speaker 1: And that's kind of really where my focus in the
Speaker 1: Warrior season is for the rest of the way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we're going to talk about that concept
Speaker 2: in a minute. But like there's a certain amount of
Speaker 2: this with the Warriors that is theoretical. But what to
Speaker 2: me is not theoretical is Steph, Jimmy and Draymond. Like
Speaker 2: I know what I'm going to get out of the
Speaker 2: three of them in the playoff context. It feels like
Speaker 2: a like a known commodity to me. You know, I
Speaker 2: remember when you're talking about the defense the I remember
Speaker 2: a lot of that has tense he surrounding this deal
Speaker 2: with Andrew Wiggins, and part of the reason why it
Speaker 2: was like when they won the title, it was Andrew
Speaker 2: Wiggins who was picking up Luca full court and applying
Speaker 2: all that ball pressure. It was Andrew Wiggins who was
Speaker 2: picking up Jason Tatum full court and playing him into
Speaker 2: the tough series that he had in the NBA Finals.
Speaker 2: And like, I think there's a certain amount of like
Speaker 2: Jimmy's not gonna be as good as Andrew at just
Speaker 2: guarding the other team's best player every night. But I
Speaker 2: think there's two elements to that that have kind of
Speaker 2: allowed it to work anyway. One Moody's been more ready
Speaker 2: for that than that. I think people realized, like you
Speaker 2: talked about this a lot in the time leading up
Speaker 2: to the trade, and you were spot on on this,
Speaker 2: and like again, like there's a there was a lot
Speaker 2: of negativity surrounding the Jimmy trade leading up to it,
Speaker 2: and you were consistent, he's Jimmy fucking Butler. Just go
Speaker 2: get him and we figure out the rest later. And
Speaker 2: one of the things that you kept talking about at
Speaker 2: the time was we need to clarify the rotation. And
Speaker 2: it has an a lot of ways clarified the rotation
Speaker 2: because Moses Moody has stepped into that role and it's
Speaker 2: been consistent. He hasn't had to worry about getting his
Speaker 2: minutes janked with he's had this role every single night.
Speaker 2: He's taking that specific responsibility. And where Jimmy is better
Speaker 2: than Andrew Wiggins on the defensive end of the floor
Speaker 2: is playmaking just all of these like little things as
Speaker 2: like peeling off and gambling and like making plays in
Speaker 2: passing lanes where he's a little bit more of an
Speaker 2: instinctual defensive playmaker than Andrew Wiggins. And the bottom line is, statistically,
Speaker 2: the defense has been better. They've been the second best
Speaker 2: defense in the league over a twenty one game span.
Speaker 2: Now that's a fourth of the season, and so I
Speaker 2: think that's relatively undeniable at this point. I want to
Speaker 2: talk about these role players though for a minute, because
Speaker 2: I agree with you, like we when we know what Steph,
Speaker 2: Jimmy and Draymond are. Let's start really quickly before we
Speaker 2: get into like kaminga. Are you happy and confident in
Speaker 2: Pods and Moody as the two other guys in that lineup.
Speaker 1: Throwing GP two as well? Yeah, it's look they were.
Speaker 1: They were not particularly good against Miami and to a
Speaker 1: lesser degree, Atlanta in these stephless games, but in general
Speaker 1: they have kind of fit the bill when we've had Steph, Jimmy,
Speaker 1: and Draymond operational where they have a scaled down roll
Speaker 1: where their responsibility is really just to you know, in
Speaker 1: Moody's case, pure three and D player, right, you're guarding
Speaker 1: the ball. He's had some excellent games against like Jalen Brunson,
Speaker 1: for example, who could be a very tough cover and
Speaker 1: kind of your quit essential like, oh, if you can't
Speaker 1: guard the ball, he's going to dice you up, right,
Speaker 1: like that type of guy and then ability to hit shots.
Speaker 1: Because they're young players, they're a little consistent as well
Speaker 1: at that and that's for me, one of the bigger
Speaker 1: concerns that the Warriors is shot making outside of Steph
Speaker 1: Curry Moses Moody is I want to say, a thirty
Speaker 1: eight percent three point shooter on the season. The shot
Speaker 1: looks pretty, it looks like it's going in every time,
Speaker 1: but you know, end of the day, he's not Klay Thompson.
Speaker 1: So and very few players are, to be fair, but
Speaker 1: it's like it is very much the young player thing
Speaker 1: where it's four for six one night, zero for six
Speaker 1: the next night, and that type of stuff in the
Speaker 1: playoffs could be really scary, particularly with how much the
Speaker 1: three point shot is, you know, important in a playoff context.
Speaker 1: And let's be honest, like how little shooting from the
Speaker 1: outside they're gonna get from Draymond and Jimmy. I know
Speaker 1: Draymond's been a better three point shooter last year and
Speaker 1: a half, but he's probably not gonna hit five threes
Speaker 1: in a game. He's probably not gonna take ten threes.
Speaker 1: Most of his threes are kind of you know, end
Speaker 1: of shot clock bailout possession type of of threes. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of pressure on Moses Moody to fill.
Speaker 1: I don't want to say the role Klay Thompson phil
Speaker 1: because that's just unrealistic, but like to fill the role
Speaker 1: that someone like a Harrison Barnes or Andrew Wiggins did
Speaker 1: where if they're left alone in the corner, they hit it.
Speaker 1: You know, if they're left you know, if you're if
Speaker 1: you're sending two at the ball because you have Steph Curry,
Speaker 1: Draymond's getting downhill, then you have a man shading towards
Speaker 1: towards Jimmy someone's open, not someone who's open will be
Speaker 1: Moses Moody or Brandon Pajemski. And this applies actually even
Speaker 1: more so for Pods. He just does more things than
Speaker 1: shoot the ball. They have to be able to hit
Speaker 1: those shots. So that's kind of my number one worry
Speaker 1: with them. But to your point on the defensive side,
Speaker 1: I actually feel pretty comfortable with this team if they
Speaker 1: have a healthy version of Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: being able to get those young guys in position to succeed,
Speaker 1: and I think they're ready for the moment.
Speaker 2: Defensively, if someone asked me what the biggest swing factor
Speaker 2: is for the Warriors and the postseason. It's just those
Speaker 2: guys making shots. I mean, I thought the Bucks game
Speaker 2: was such a perfect example that they put Brook Lopez
Speaker 2: on Gary Payton down the stretch and he just sits
Speaker 2: his ass right underneath basket and they're gapping off of
Speaker 2: Pods and the two of them, Pods on the right
Speaker 2: wing and Gary on the left wing, get two just
Speaker 2: completely uncontested threes in crunch time. They make them both
Speaker 2: and it ends up being a big part of how
Speaker 2: they win. And like there's a certain amount of like
Speaker 2: to your point, Like, even though Andre Gudala never had
Speaker 2: the reputation of being like this knockdown shooter, it always
Speaker 2: felt like he made the big ones that he needed
Speaker 2: to make in that corner.
Speaker 1: If it's a big game, it was going in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, dude. And so like there's a certain amount
Speaker 2: of like Draymond was kind of like the one guy
Speaker 2: on the floor that you kind of had the ability
Speaker 2: to really help off of and feel like you were
Speaker 2: confident that he was going to miss more often than
Speaker 2: he made. And it just like you start to add
Speaker 2: that to two guys on the floor maybe a third
Speaker 2: guy on the floor. That's where it can get a
Speaker 2: little tricky. And so I do think that that's the
Speaker 2: weakness there. That said, I think you could make that
Speaker 2: same argument for some other teams around the league. I like, really,
Speaker 2: I think the only team you the only time I
Speaker 2: feel confident it is just going to make shots if
Speaker 2: they're open, as Boston like, they're gonna make shots, yeah,
Speaker 2: if they're open. But like I could see I see
Speaker 2: Oklahoma City potentially losing a playoff series missing threes. I
Speaker 2: see with like mediocre shooters getting left open. I see
Speaker 2: Denver potentially losing a series with the mediocre players hitting threes.
Speaker 2: The Lakers are another team that can put together groups
Speaker 2: with Dorian Finney, Smith and Rui where all five guys
Speaker 2: are shooters. But even then, it's like Austin Reeves is
Speaker 2: not the best catch and shoot guy in the world.
Speaker 2: Like there's a version of it where he can go cold.
Speaker 2: And so I think there's a certain amount of it
Speaker 2: where it's like, I think we can't overlook the fact
Speaker 2: that they're going to be a great defense that gets
Speaker 2: out in transition and that has Steph Curry and that yes,
Speaker 2: these guys are gonna have to knock down shots, but
Speaker 2: that's not necessarily a death sentence, if that makes sense. Now,
Speaker 2: as we go deeper into the bench, the Jonathan Camena
Speaker 2: experience I think has been uneven. I thought he was
Speaker 2: really good in his first game back. What was that Sacramento?
Speaker 2: If I remember correctly, I think it was He's really
Speaker 2: good in that game where everything was with an advantage,
Speaker 2: everything was towards the rim, everything was geared towards like
Speaker 2: playing in the flow. But one of the big difference
Speaker 2: difference is like when you sent me the numbers this
Speaker 2: morning with him versus Gie Santos, to me, like Jonathan
Speaker 2: Kaminga has the ability to make certain reads, particularly as
Speaker 2: a cutter. When he sees like a lane open up,
Speaker 2: he'll run to the front of the rim, and I
Speaker 2: think there is some value in that as a play finisher.
Speaker 2: But every other type of read and react situation on
Speaker 2: the court, he sorely lacks behind his teammates, and I
Speaker 2: think like there's a certain lack of ceiling with a
Speaker 2: guy like Gi Santo's, but there's a certain predictability as
Speaker 2: a catch and shoot guy and as a guy who
Speaker 2: crashes the offensive glass every time and as a guy
Speaker 2: who makes decisions in read and reacts situations and so like. Ultimately,
Speaker 2: I think there's a version of this where Jonathan Kminga's
Speaker 2: role could shrink considerably when they get into the postseason.
Speaker 2: How have you felt about their early returns with cominga
Speaker 2: alongside Jimmy and the crew, and how he fits both
Speaker 2: in the short and long term.
Speaker 1: I mean, and so two different questions. In the long term,
Speaker 1: I'm more bullish on him figuring it out, and he
Speaker 1: does do one specific thing that this older iteration of
Speaker 1: the Warriors really needs, which is he gets to the
Speaker 1: rim and he's hyper athletic. Look, they're an older team.
Speaker 1: Any any young player who can play above the rim
Speaker 1: and can beat their man with their first step is
Speaker 1: welcome on this team. In theory, he should also be
Speaker 1: a hyperactive defender that has not necessarily shown up. But
Speaker 1: we've seen tons of young wings with his physical profile
Speaker 1: who look lost defensively, and then around year five or six,
Speaker 1: it just clicks. Andrew Wiggins probably the most obvious example.
Speaker 1: He went from being kind of a you know, having
Speaker 1: a terrible reputation defensively in Minnesota to almost making, you know,
Speaker 1: an All NBA defensive teams, right, So it happens all
Speaker 1: the time on that end. You can't discount the physical tools.
Speaker 1: Now in the short term, month far less optimistic because
Speaker 1: to your point, we're ten games away from the playoffs,
Speaker 1: and you know, they don't have fifty games for him
Speaker 1: to figure it out. And the thing that pops to
Speaker 1: me when I watch him is he wants to occupy
Speaker 1: all the same spots on the floor that Jimmy Butler is,
Speaker 1: but Jimmy's better at him at everything, and so he
Speaker 1: hasn't figured out how to adapt to that. And because
Speaker 1: he's a young player, and to your point, I don't
Speaker 1: want to say feel is lacking, but he's just far
Speaker 1: less mature mentally in terms of reading the game than
Speaker 1: the other guys on the team. You know, probably the
Speaker 1: biggest advantage the Warriors have going into a playoff series
Speaker 1: is Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond will be a step ahead
Speaker 1: of almost every one of their opponents. That those are
Speaker 1: three of the five to seven smartest players in the NBA.
Speaker 1: What they lack in foot speed, they make up for
Speaker 1: a mental processing speed. So it means the other two
Speaker 1: guys have to know how to play off of that
Speaker 1: and kuminga combination of both being young and you know,
Speaker 1: maybe not as developed as the Warriors would have liked
Speaker 1: him to be in here for and let's just be realistic,
Speaker 1: he missed two plus months with an injury and he's
Speaker 1: trying to get integrated into a brand new team. That
Speaker 1: puts him in a really rough position. Particularly since he's
Speaker 1: not a shooter. You can't plug him in to Moses
Speaker 1: Moody's role where you know, Moses Moody offensively is essentially
Speaker 1: just gonna be, you know, standing in the corner. Most
Speaker 1: actions are finding him camping out in the weak side
Speaker 1: corner that if they help off of him, he gets
Speaker 1: a wide open three. That's not going to work for Kuminga.
Speaker 1: So to your point, if he can read the game
Speaker 1: at the speed the Warriors like to play, you could
Speaker 1: actually take advantage of them as a cutter, take advantage
Speaker 1: of the athleticism, the ball move stuff we've seen Warriors
Speaker 1: teams do for a decade. Right where you're just like,
Speaker 1: how does honestly GP two master this? Right? He can't
Speaker 1: really shoot the ball, I know, shoot the ball well now,
Speaker 1: but nobody guards him like he's a shooter. But he
Speaker 1: knows exactly how to play off of Stephan Draimon, and
Speaker 1: he always seems to find himself, you know, cutting baseline
Speaker 1: for a wide open layup or dunk. In theory, that's
Speaker 1: how Kumenga can thrive with this team. It just hasn't
Speaker 1: come to fruition. And I mean, maybe I'm a pessimist
Speaker 1: about it, but like ten games, and these are not
Speaker 1: games that they can just give him space either. They're
Speaker 1: like a half game out of being in the play in,
Speaker 1: so they need to treat every game like it's a
Speaker 1: real game, which leads to scenarios like the Atlanta game
Speaker 1: where he was playing poorly and he did not play
Speaker 1: more than four myths in the second half. How is
Speaker 1: he going to figure it out if he only plays
Speaker 1: four miss in the second half. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: the Warriors have to win games, so he's just I
Speaker 1: don't see how this solves itself in the short term.
Speaker 2: I'm so glad you brought up how much this sucks
Speaker 2: for Jonathan, because it really does. You know, there was
Speaker 2: so much pessimism surrounding whether or not a deal would
Speaker 2: actually get made at all in like late January, that
Speaker 2: it turned into a situation where it almost looked like, oh,
Speaker 2: it's Jonathan's time now, like this is about to go
Speaker 2: the other direction, and this is going to go towards
Speaker 2: we're leaning towards the future. Here are the keys, Jonathan.
Speaker 2: You're gonna get to do your thing for extended stretches
Speaker 2: of the game, have a long leash, get to make mistakes,
Speaker 2: and it radically flipped to now you're coming back. There's
Speaker 2: no way you have a starting spot. The only version
Speaker 2: of this where you contribute to the team is where
Speaker 2: you become this read and react player. And like I think,
Speaker 2: you know, I think you have to be good at
Speaker 2: one of two things to be a good offensive player
Speaker 2: around Steph, Jimmy and Raymond. You either have to be
Speaker 2: an excellent shooter or an excellent read and react player,
Speaker 2: and he's neither, and that just puts him into a
Speaker 2: really tough position accentuating his game. Because to your point
Speaker 2: about occupying all the same spots on the floor, your
Speaker 2: value as a basketball player is unique to your team.
Speaker 2: It has nothing to do with what your talents are
Speaker 2: in a vacuum. It's all theoretical in a vacuum on
Speaker 2: your team, it's what you can do within that group,
Speaker 2: and there's no version of this where he's going to
Speaker 2: be playing in the playoffs with neither of Jimmy or
Speaker 2: stuff on the floor, meaning the game is going to
Speaker 2: have to be predicated with him playing off of those guys,
Speaker 2: and it's just gonna be like again, when Jimmy has
Speaker 2: had success offensively without Steph, it's been this whirling dervish
Speaker 2: of these read and react guys, relocating, cutting, screening, slipping,
Speaker 2: all this kind of stuff around him, and that part
Speaker 2: has worked, but it's just not gonna work that way
Speaker 2: like in the postseason context when Jonathan Kaming is out there,
Speaker 2: He's not gonna be able to have the same kinds
Speaker 2: of opportunities he did before the deadline, And so it's
Speaker 2: just difficult, and honestly, I do feel bad for him,
Speaker 2: and like I do wonder what this does look like
Speaker 2: in the big picture, because Steph talked about it the
Speaker 2: other day, it seems to me like there's been an
Speaker 2: organizational commitment that they're trying this next year too, right,
Speaker 2: so it seems like this is a two year window,
Speaker 2: like we're going for it, We're gonna try to make
Speaker 2: this happen, and like you talk about ten games I
Speaker 2: don't necessarily see a version of this where he blossoms
Speaker 2: into that player next year either, And so I think
Speaker 2: this could be a challenging stretch for Jonathan in his career,
Speaker 2: and I'm really curious just to see how he adapts
Speaker 2: to it, because before the deadline he had leverage in
Speaker 2: the sense that he could go to the media and
Speaker 2: be like, what the hell are we doing here? Like
Speaker 2: we're not very good? Why am I not getting an
Speaker 2: opportunity to show what I can do? Like what's the deal?
Speaker 2: Whereas like, there is this clear, obvious championship ceiling with
Speaker 2: the Warriors now, and Jonathan has to find a way
Speaker 2: to kind of conform into that and it's just difficult.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he's kinda it's tough break. I don't
Speaker 1: know what else to say. Like the pre trade deadline Warriors,
Speaker 1: I love how you pointed out Jimmy Butler's defensive playmaking.
Speaker 1: I would say the number one thing they lacked on
Speaker 1: both ends of the floor was playmaking pre trade, and
Speaker 1: Jimmy addresses both those things. Now, he's not a perfect player,
Speaker 1: you know, like the perfect edition would have been the
Speaker 1: honest he also addresses both those things. Both it's literally
Speaker 1: higher ceiling, right. So but he you know now that
Speaker 1: he takes care of your wing playmaker, a guy who
Speaker 1: you can run a pick and roll for and ISO
Speaker 1: operate out of the post. Those were all the best
Speaker 1: places that Kuminga was starting to find success. I don't
Speaker 1: gonna say he's found total successor that's what he was
Speaker 1: starting to develop. And he's just he's not equipped at
Speaker 1: this point to be Harrison Barnes or Andrew Wiggins, who
Speaker 1: is who they need. Like in a perfect world, if
Speaker 1: he was ready to be the twenty fifteen Harrison Barnes
Speaker 1: who could hit open shots and knew how to play
Speaker 1: off of staff Igudala, Draymond Clay or Andrew Wiggins who's
Speaker 1: proven he could do that, and in many ways that
Speaker 1: is his ideal role. I think he would be starting games,
Speaker 1: and I know he would be closing games as that
Speaker 1: third front court player. But the SHOT's not there. He's
Speaker 1: also just a hesitant shooter. He's not three point sho
Speaker 1: that's not really his game. And you know he's not
Speaker 1: there defensively either. He's just kind of in a rough spot.
Speaker 1: It's easier to play gis aantos because gist aantos is
Speaker 1: those things even if it's you know, with a lower ceiling.
Speaker 2: The hesitance is almost like worse than the actual not
Speaker 2: making of the shot, because like defenses prey on that
Speaker 2: with short closeouts and they just bait on the fact
Speaker 2: that we don't even think you're gonna take it, like
Speaker 2: let alone, let alone knock it down. But I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, I talked earlier about like the runways that
Speaker 2: he operates on, like these gaps that appear around the
Speaker 2: rim where he'll just jet to the front of the rim.
Speaker 2: And the truth of the matter is is as the
Speaker 2: defenses get better, those runways just don't appear very often,
Speaker 2: and it becomes about playing in tight space and it
Speaker 2: becomes about making those decisions and split second processing speed
Speaker 2: and all that kind of stuff, and it's just it's
Speaker 2: just tough. Let's get zoom out a little bit more.
Speaker 1: Okay, So.
Speaker 2: Sixteen and four with Jimmy, we know that there have
Speaker 2: been a handful of impressive wins in there, but that
Speaker 2: they've played a relatively light schedule. Sure, as we go
Speaker 2: down the stretch of the season, they do have some
Speaker 2: big games, Like I know they have one against the Lakers,
Speaker 2: Do I think do they won more against the Thunder.
Speaker 2: I think they played. I think they played.
Speaker 1: They do not play the Thunder again. That they do
Speaker 1: have Denver at least one more time, and I think
Speaker 1: it gets they might. Yeah, I feel like they've played Houston.
Speaker 1: They do, actually, right, it's one of their last games.
Speaker 1: I swear they've played Houston four times this year. I
Speaker 1: felt like they played Houston three times. Yeah, there you go.
Speaker 1: They also have the Clippers at the end of the season,
Speaker 1: last game of the season. There's a very realistic chance
Speaker 1: that will literally decide you know, the seventh seed, six,
Speaker 1: six to seven, whatever it may be. So, yeah, they
Speaker 1: have a you know what sucks about this Steph injury
Speaker 1: is Atlanta and Miami looked like easy wins with Steph
Speaker 1: Curry and they drop both of those. Like this road
Speaker 1: trip really should have been where they picked up the
Speaker 1: easy wins. You got the Pelicans tonight, you got the Spurs,
Speaker 1: you got a reeling Grizzlies team. These are theoretically all
Speaker 1: very winnable games for the Warriors before they get into
Speaker 1: a tougher stretch of Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets, Sons who have
Speaker 1: life again, and Clippers and those type of teams.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and like the Suns Clippers games are gonna be
Speaker 2: the tougher ones because just having routed, I mean, we're
Speaker 2: familiar with rooting for playing team Sam, We've done it
Speaker 2: over the course of years.
Speaker 1: Nobody knows the playing better than you and me.
Speaker 2: We we like know that like those games against the
Speaker 2: higher leverage teams, who the hell knows who's gonna play
Speaker 2: in those games or the level of intensity, and like,
Speaker 2: it could end up being that those Sons, Clippers, the
Speaker 2: other play in type of teams are the ones that
Speaker 2: end up giving the tougher fights. But the point is,
Speaker 2: the bottom line is we're not gonna get to see
Speaker 2: this team play a good amount of you know, high
Speaker 2: leverage basketball before they're actually in the high leverage basketball.
Speaker 2: And so there's a certain amount of this that is
Speaker 2: theoretical just with what this team can or cannot do.
Speaker 2: So given that we're gonna take that and set it
Speaker 2: to the side that we all agree that a certain
Speaker 2: amount of this is conjecture. And I mean, I'm here's
Speaker 2: the thing. It's conjecture for every team in the league,
Speaker 2: but just a little bit more so for the Warriors
Speaker 2: because of the stuff that's gone down with the schedule
Speaker 2: and with Steph's injuries. So with the amount of information
Speaker 2: that you have, how are you feeling right now in
Speaker 2: terms of your level of optimism for this team a
Speaker 2: potential playoff run.
Speaker 1: Barely optimistic somewhere. I feel like they have a puncher's
Speaker 1: chance to get out of the West. I did not
Speaker 1: feel like they had a realistic chance to do anything
Speaker 1: the last two years. So they you know, are they
Speaker 1: the odds on favorite? No? Do I think the Vegas odds,
Speaker 1: which has somewhere like third or fourth most like it
Speaker 1: come out of the West, is accurate. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: they really could. I actually think the twenty or so
Speaker 1: games they've played with Jimmy are indicative of the type
Speaker 1: of team they are. They have the best defense in
Speaker 1: that span. I'm not gonna say they have the best
Speaker 1: defense in the league, but I do think they have
Speaker 1: a top five defense with Jimmy Butler, and I think
Speaker 1: that will translate in the playoffs. And they've been the
Speaker 1: ninth best offense. I would actually say that's probably even
Speaker 1: a little on the high side. I think they're somewhere
Speaker 1: around the tenth to twelfth best offense in the league,
Speaker 1: and so that's the kind of team you're talking about here.
Speaker 1: I think they can defend. They can keep themselves in
Speaker 1: most every matchup in the playoffs, and it really comes
Speaker 1: down to do they get enough shot making around Steph Curry.
Speaker 1: They've been they get a bunch of open threes for
Speaker 1: Moses Moody, for Brandon Pajemski, for Gary Payton, the second
Speaker 1: who looks reborn by the way, just overall as a player,
Speaker 1: he looks like he did during the title run, both
Speaker 1: defensively and offensively. For Kuminga, you know he's gonna get
Speaker 1: if the shot comes around in the next month, like
Speaker 1: they will give him wide open shots because of the
Speaker 1: way that they guard the Warriors, And so yeah, my
Speaker 1: question is do they have enough shot making? And then
Speaker 1: if the shot making does not come around, the size question,
Speaker 1: because they're gonna play small. They play well small, but
Speaker 1: like Moses Moody at power forward is very small, you
Speaker 1: know what I'm saying. Like they're playing Jimmy and Draymond
Speaker 1: and Moses Moody and Brandon Pajemski and Steph Curry. That's
Speaker 1: their best lineup right now. That's significantly smaller than their
Speaker 1: famous death lineups. Their death lineup was small because Draymond's
Speaker 1: too small to play center. But if you just accept
Speaker 1: that he's an anomaly of a human, they actually were
Speaker 1: not small. They had six seven guys with seven plus
Speaker 1: foot wingspans all across the perimeter. In some ways, it's
Speaker 1: like the makeup that the Lakers have where you're like, okay,
Speaker 1: there's no real center here. But I would not call
Speaker 1: them a small team. They're large across the perimeter. It's
Speaker 1: just a question if they can piece meal the center position.
Speaker 1: And so you know, like Denver, Denver is gonna be
Speaker 1: a rough matchup for them because Aaron Gordon's huge for
Speaker 1: a wing and he kind of takes away that wing
Speaker 1: advantage that they have. And then Jokic is Jokic, right, Like,
Speaker 1: those are my question marks for them, But like on
Speaker 1: the flip side, as great as Okac is now, the
Speaker 1: size isn't really as big of an issue. Okay, so
Speaker 1: he plays the same size guys. Obviously they're excellent. They
Speaker 1: had their record says it. So I don't know. I
Speaker 1: think they have a real they have a realistic chance.
Speaker 1: They do have exploitable flaws, but I think that's true
Speaker 1: of every team in the West. It's a very it's
Speaker 1: a very good Western conference. I'm not sure there's a
Speaker 1: great team in this conference.
Speaker 2: Yeah, or they're all great teams. That's the like relative
Speaker 2: Like that's the other thing too, is like you know,
Speaker 2: I was looking at it too, like like Oklahoma City
Speaker 2: might get Minnesota in the first round. What a shit
Speaker 2: end of the stick for going sixty to twelve to
Speaker 2: start the season. I was like, such a huge pain
Speaker 2: of the ass. The Yeah, I love the part the
Speaker 2: point you made about the size because like like just
Speaker 2: basically Andre Guidala is a bigger and more imposing athlete
Speaker 2: than either of Jimmy Butler.
Speaker 1: And Moses Moody.
Speaker 2: Just to give you an idea of like the difference
Speaker 2: in the physical profile of those teams. Like add Kevin
Speaker 2: Durant to the picture. It's an entirely different stratosphere of
Speaker 2: a play.
Speaker 1: Is the same size as Jimmy Butler, Clay played the two.
Speaker 1: Jimmy's kind of the four, you know, like that's what
Speaker 1: you need to know. Right there they were, they were
Speaker 1: big across the perimeter, and then Draymond's just kind of
Speaker 1: you know, it's once in a generation sixty six you
Speaker 1: could play a center. Dude.
Speaker 2: I this ultimately is why I view them as a
Speaker 2: legitimate puncher's chance threat. First of all, I like phase one,
Speaker 2: don't overthink it. It's Jimmy at step as Draymond put
Speaker 2: them in a playoff series. You mentioned the processing speed,
Speaker 2: even just the experience, the confidence, the level of comfortability
Speaker 2: they're gonna experience in those environments. You mentioned the defense
Speaker 2: to me, like like to me, the Lakers with the
Speaker 2: number one defense in the league for a few months,
Speaker 2: and they are a good defense. But with Luca, I
Speaker 2: look at them at their best as somewhere in that
Speaker 2: six to ten range as a defense, Like I don't
Speaker 2: actually think they have the level of imposition athletically that
Speaker 2: they can cause problems for teams at the level of
Speaker 2: a top five defense. I think Golden State does have
Speaker 2: that level of defense. That level of defense, to your point,
Speaker 2: will keep you in every game, and if you're in
Speaker 2: every game, there's a certain amount of like, if this
Speaker 2: guy makes a couple of shots, we end up winning it,
Speaker 2: you know, And as long as they generate enough quality ones,
Speaker 2: they've got a good chance. I'm glad you brought up
Speaker 2: the size. Ironically, I'm actually more worried, like I think
Speaker 2: Denver and the Lakers present different issues for Golden State
Speaker 2: with size, the Lakers with their just massive forwards that
Speaker 2: are just going to be picking on smalls all over
Speaker 2: the place in Denver with the Jokic problem. But I
Speaker 2: could also flip that around and I can go one
Speaker 2: of the most impressive teams against OKC and Boston this
Speaker 2: year has been Golden State. They've looked good at times
Speaker 2: in those matchups and have caused them real problems before
Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler came to town. And so when I look
Speaker 2: at it, like a big part of their punchers chance
Speaker 2: is like to me, they match up well with the
Speaker 2: top teams in the league, and there's a certain amount
Speaker 2: of this like with matchups they might not have to
Speaker 2: face both Denver and LA They might not have to
Speaker 2: face either of them. If things go a certain way,
Speaker 2: like you don't know how this could end up shaking out,
Speaker 2: like they could end up catching it.
Speaker 1: A dream scenario for the Warriors would be Lakers in
Speaker 1: Denver getting stuck together round one, just so it's right
Speaker 1: off the bat, one of them are eliminated.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly exactly, And that's the wildcard with the Western Conference.
Speaker 2: It's always so difficult the factor in. But like you mentioned,
Speaker 2: like to me, all the teams have flaws. I think
Speaker 2: we can all agree that the Thunder and the Celtics
Speaker 2: are a level above to a certain extent. I think
Speaker 2: it's a smaller level above than some other people think.
Speaker 2: Like I've I talked to people who think, and I'm
Speaker 2: sure you do too, that that think, Okay, Oklahoma City
Speaker 2: is just a runaway Western Conference favorite. I don't see
Speaker 2: it that way. I view them as a slight Western
Speaker 2: Conference favorite. I think that when you've got a rotation
Speaker 2: full of dudes who are twenty six and younger, they're
Speaker 2: gonna win a shit ton of games, like especially when
Speaker 2: they're talented, because they're just so young and so you know,
Speaker 2: indomitable as athletes in the regular sas.
Speaker 1: They don't come out looking tired on the third game
Speaker 1: and four nights the way the Warriors are Lakers might exactly.
Speaker 2: And by the way, even the Celtics have a certain
Speaker 2: amount of like age and fatigue in their in their rotation.
Speaker 2: That I think that that I think factors in. But
Speaker 2: but ultimately, ultimately all of these teams have exploitable flaws.
Speaker 2: All of them, to me, are beatable and so like.
Speaker 2: That's why I don't think it makes a ton of
Speaker 2: sense to hyper focus on any team's flaw, whether it's
Speaker 2: the Lakers in their center, if it's Denver in their
Speaker 2: lack of defense, or it's Golden State and their lack
Speaker 2: of shot making. It just I think I think all
Speaker 2: of these teams have a certain amount of law. So, okay,
Speaker 2: we have a couple more minutes, really quick, what does
Speaker 2: this summer look like? Let's just say, because I think
Speaker 2: there's a version of this where they get their ass
Speaker 2: kicked in the first round, where it could be a
Speaker 2: little bit more complicated. But let's say that they make
Speaker 2: a run to at least the second or third round,
Speaker 2: and they put up a really good fight and they
Speaker 2: end up losing. What does this summer look like for
Speaker 2: the Warriors in your opinion?
Speaker 1: I mean, the first decision is Jonathan Kuminga and then
Speaker 1: it's Domino's from there. I think if you are committed
Speaker 1: to Steph, Jimmy and Draymond, you have to use the
Speaker 1: summer to optimize the roster around their strengths and weaknesses.
Speaker 1: They kind of put this together on the fly. We've
Speaker 1: learned some things. This He's like, we've learned, Like this
Speaker 1: is exactly what they needed to turn Moses Moody into
Speaker 1: a real rotation player. You know, Brandon Pajemski looks really
Speaker 1: good next to him. He's probably back next year. Kuminga.
Speaker 1: I could see them coming away from the playoffs being like,
Speaker 1: he started figuring it out towards the end of it,
Speaker 1: and we really need his legs because Jimmy gonna miss
Speaker 1: twenty games, Steph's gonna miss twenty games, and it's just
Speaker 1: gonna be nice to have someone who can carry the
Speaker 1: load in November December those times. I could also see
Speaker 1: them being like, you know what, it's not happening. Let's
Speaker 1: see what sign and trade possibilities are out there. So
Speaker 1: I think it's all on the table right now. I
Speaker 1: think if you were to talk to them off the record,
Speaker 1: they would probably say the same thing. Their best case
Speaker 1: scenario is Kumika figures it out because it's one less complication.
Speaker 1: It's always easier to just keep someone in house than
Speaker 1: have to go out there and try to make a deal.
Speaker 1: So I think that's I think that's the first thing
Speaker 1: they have to figure out. From there. It's scaling the
Speaker 1: market for players who are probably under thirty, because you
Speaker 1: have an older core looking for more shot making, looking
Speaker 1: for more front court shot making. Specifically, Quinton Post has
Speaker 1: been an amazing find for them. I don't know how
Speaker 1: much he's gonna play in the playoffs, just because young
Speaker 1: big who doesn't really profile as a defender anyway. Hard
Speaker 1: to play those guys in the playoff. Finding another piece
Speaker 1: like that, I think that's where they go. There is
Speaker 1: also the you know, insane scenario where a Supermax player
Speaker 1: becomes available and they trade Jimmy because now they have
Speaker 1: the contract to match it. I do not think that'll happen,
Speaker 1: but I do think they would do it if they
Speaker 1: could get Giannis.
Speaker 2: So yeah, Giannis is the wild card that I could
Speaker 2: see him coming available this year.
Speaker 1: I'm just not betting on anything like that happening because
Speaker 1: it's so unlikely. But hey, I didn't have Luka Doncic
Speaker 1: getting moved at the dead of night on February first
Speaker 1: happening either, so I cannot rule anything out anymore. Yeah.
Speaker 2: One of the rare examples in NBA or in anything
Speaker 2: where the conspiracy theories make more sense than the reality
Speaker 2: of what happened exactly. This is my last question for you,
Speaker 2: mid level exception this summer, under the circumstances that we
Speaker 2: laid out, would you rather have a big that let's
Speaker 2: call it a versatile big that can does something really well,
Speaker 2: whether it's shoot the ball or protect the rims super well,
Speaker 2: something like that. Like let's just say, like, let's just
Speaker 2: take like a Miles Turner for example. Let's say like
Speaker 2: a guy like Miles Turner was available for the MLLE,
Speaker 2: which by the way, he might not be he probably
Speaker 2: won't be, or a shot creating like a perimeter ball
Speaker 2: handler type. What do you think is more important?
Speaker 1: Uh, give me a guy with positional size who can
Speaker 1: drain threes. Because I do agree with you. The Warriors
Speaker 1: have for years kind of like turn their nose up
Speaker 1: at like the sixth man bucket getter type, and I
Speaker 1: think on the net aggregate, they're right, those guys tend
Speaker 1: to be overvalued and overpaid. But games where Steph doesn't play,
Speaker 1: You're like, man, it'd be really nice to have. It'd
Speaker 1: be really nice to have like a you know, like
Speaker 1: a Lou Williams or someone like that, that type of player, Right,
Speaker 1: I do think it's more realistic for them to find
Speaker 1: like a Shake Milton or someone like that on a
Speaker 1: veteran minimum than an mL, whereas Mlee, I'm shooting for
Speaker 1: someone who's in my eight man playoff rotation. It's not
Speaker 1: someone who's spelling STEP's legs. So he plays sixty five
Speaker 1: games a year in a perfect world to get both.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think I think the way you laid
Speaker 2: it out is perfect. I think ultimately, if you're spending
Speaker 2: you know, twelve million dollars on a player, it needs
Speaker 2: to be someone that's in your playoff rotation.
Speaker 1: Like this is perfect, a perfect example. I was gonna say,
Speaker 1: like Danthony Melton was a perfect example of that because
Speaker 1: you know, great defender and he can hit open shots.
Speaker 1: But you know, didn't happen.
Speaker 2: Dude, do you think that it'd be interesting to see
Speaker 2: if he came back at some point because I think
Speaker 2: he was a really good fit h during the short
Speaker 2: bit that we got to see him. Sam, this is
Speaker 2: all all we have time for today. I sincerely appreciate
Speaker 2: you joining us. It's been awesome to hear your close
Speaker 2: perspective on the team. Will you just shout out light
Speaker 2: years tell everybody where they can find your stuff?
Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty simple. Search light Years any place you get
Speaker 1: a podcast, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, whatever it is. We are
Speaker 1: live after basically every game, additional content at outside of
Speaker 1: those postgame shows. Just check us out there and subscribe.
Speaker 2: It was good to see you, man, I'm looking forward
Speaker 2: to next time. Thank you all for supporting us and
Speaker 2: for supporting the show. I hope all of you guys
Speaker 2: have an incredible weekend and we will see you on Monday.
Speaker 1: What's up guys?
Speaker 2: As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
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