WEBVTT - The Coronavirus and Inequality

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day

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<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week Carol Masser along with Kaylee Lines.

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<v Speaker 1>And we do want to get into the latest on

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<v Speaker 1>the virus because we've had a bunch of headlines. Certainly

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<v Speaker 1>today we know Europe is seeing more cases and getting

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<v Speaker 1>into another shutdown, if you will. Astro Zenica saying it's

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine candidate produced a robust immune response and elderly people,

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<v Speaker 1>Jane Jay saying the first batches of its shot could

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<v Speaker 1>be available in January. So there's a lot going on.

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<v Speaker 1>So back with us for our daily check on COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen and with his perspective, Dr Sandra Galaia he's Dina

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<v Speaker 1>Professor at Boston University School of Public Health. He's author

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<v Speaker 1>of Pained Uncomfortable Conversations about the Public's health, and he

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<v Speaker 1>joins us once again on the phone from Boston. Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Galay and nice to have you here with Kayley and myself.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you, um well, Thank you Carol, Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>Kayley for having me again. I am doing as well

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<v Speaker 1>as can be adjusted for coronavirus times, I know. Tell me,

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<v Speaker 1>tell us what Boston is like right now. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think Boston right now is a little bit anxious. I

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<v Speaker 1>think I feel like we are and everybody is on

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<v Speaker 1>the edge of their seat. We're seeing cases slowly creep up.

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<v Speaker 1>They're going up, they go down, but the general slow

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<v Speaker 1>increase in trend. And I think the mayor and the

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<v Speaker 1>governor have been appropriately increasingly cautious, and the and the

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<v Speaker 1>urging all citizens to be careful, and I think businesses

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<v Speaker 1>have been doing the same. So I think it's a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of a balancing act between knowing that cases

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<v Speaker 1>are slowly trending up, but taking precautions to double down

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<v Speaker 1>on the on the things that we are all doing,

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<v Speaker 1>wearing masks and being careful with test thing with contact

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<v Speaker 1>racing to avoid these cases from becoming another surge. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's in the greater city of Boston. Dr GLA. But

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<v Speaker 1>what about at Boston University. How is the university, How

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<v Speaker 1>are your students, how are you handling this? Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>actually quite quite remarkable how well we are doing in

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<v Speaker 1>the university. And obviously the university is it's vulnerable to

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<v Speaker 1>changes in the city around it. But we have had

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<v Speaker 1>a fairly low case positivity in tool right now, which

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<v Speaker 1>about point two percent, which is two per thousand, while

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<v Speaker 1>in Brookline around it we're about two percents, almost tenfold more.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think the reason for that is that within

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<v Speaker 1>the university we have a very big university, but you're

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<v Speaker 1>able to control things a little bit more. We test

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<v Speaker 1>all our students twice a week or once a week,

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<v Speaker 1>depending on their contact. We have very sophisticated and robust

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<v Speaker 1>contact racing that if somebody tests positive, we talk to

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<v Speaker 1>them right away, we isolate them, we isolate their contact.

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<v Speaker 1>So in some respects, the universe like a city within

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<v Speaker 1>a city, but one where you have a lot more control.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have been so far touched with doing well.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there is a lot of anxiety I have

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<v Speaker 1>and a lot of us have about whether the larger

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<v Speaker 1>city will end up affecting the university, and obviously, if

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<v Speaker 1>it does, will have to change course as to what

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<v Speaker 1>we're doing. But so far, the university, frankly, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>safer place to be than the than the city around. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>It's kind of interesting, right, I think, you know, center

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<v Speaker 1>that as we've opened up all kinds of educational systems, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, from K through you know, of course going

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<v Speaker 1>into colleges and universities, I think we've had some success

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<v Speaker 1>stories and then we've had certainly some problem areas, especially

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to college sports reopening. I mean, do

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<v Speaker 1>you still feel like it's important that we continue to

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<v Speaker 1>reopen educational areas and keep them open. Yeah, And I

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<v Speaker 1>think the answer is yes. But it's a it's a

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<v Speaker 1>qualified yes. It's a it's qualified by two things. Number

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<v Speaker 1>one is that I don't think opening some that means

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<v Speaker 1>opening and sort of going to back to business as

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<v Speaker 1>usual like it was October. Opening means having a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of precautions in place. Everybody wearing masks, people are being

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<v Speaker 1>careful not to go into work if they're sick, self attestation,

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<v Speaker 1>everyday systems of testing, simple systems of isolating people who

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<v Speaker 1>have positive tests, isolating their contact, and the entire really

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<v Speaker 1>the entire range of efforts to mitigate the virus. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think yes, with those measures in place, I think

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<v Speaker 1>the second caveat to the yes is that we simply

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<v Speaker 1>need to have the humility to say today on October

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<v Speaker 1>the answer should be yes. But I don't know what

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<v Speaker 1>the answer should be tomorrow October, which is a bit unnerving,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, as as you can both appreciate. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think simply if the data change, we should change. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think we as a university, I think we as

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<v Speaker 1>a city, as a state, as a country, should have

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<v Speaker 1>the humility to realize that that the virus may become

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<v Speaker 1>bigger than us, and we we need to change what

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<v Speaker 1>we're doing. Well, I have to look ahead then further

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<v Speaker 1>into to fall into the winter. Dr Elia. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it's pretty bad right now, we're seeing record cases, and

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<v Speaker 1>then when it is dark and cold, no one wants

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<v Speaker 1>to be outside. Everyone is forced inside. Are you bracing

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<v Speaker 1>yourself for that? M hm, yeah, I am man. I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose the big question for the winter is as people

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<v Speaker 1>are all forced inside, will they continue to congregate inside,

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<v Speaker 1>which is which we know is what's driving most of

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<v Speaker 1>the cases. And here in Massachusetts, analyzes show very clearly

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<v Speaker 1>that a lot of the case spread comes from indoor

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<v Speaker 1>house parties and gatherings where people are not being careful

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<v Speaker 1>with protective equipment. So the question is are people going

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<v Speaker 1>to go inside and in the congregate, which is then

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<v Speaker 1>going to result in viral spread. The truth is, Carol

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<v Speaker 1>and Kyley, if if each of us stayed inside, just

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<v Speaker 1>on our couch, without contacting anybody, then there will be

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<v Speaker 1>no spread of coronavirus. So it really depends on what

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<v Speaker 1>we do by being inside. If we are inside, taking precautions,

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<v Speaker 1>will be fine. But if being inside means congregation broadly

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<v Speaker 1>what we saw happen in the Southern States in the summer, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So happened in Southern states in the summer as things

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<v Speaker 1>got hot, people went inside where there's air conditioning, and

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<v Speaker 1>there was all sorts of congregation which resulted in the

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<v Speaker 1>spread of the virus. So I think it really depends.

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<v Speaker 1>But but the answer to your question, am I looking

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<v Speaker 1>at aggrehensively is unqualifiedly yes, Dr Galiah. You know, Charlie

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<v Speaker 1>Pellett was just talking about we also check in with

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<v Speaker 1>the folks and the teams over at Johns Hopkins. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've often seen people come out and say, well, there's

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<v Speaker 1>more cases of COVID nineteen because we're doing more testing. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>is that true or that's not the case. No, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not the case. I heard non Professor Sharpstein talk about

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<v Speaker 1>this and the clip and he's still is right, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not the case. I mean, there's no question we're doing

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<v Speaker 1>more testing and as a result, you do find more cases.

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<v Speaker 1>But there's plenty of evidence that this is a real

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<v Speaker 1>rise in cases. Is not just do the testing. We're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing a rise in all age groups. And the professor

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<v Speaker 1>Sharstein noted, we are seeing a rise in hospitalizations. If

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<v Speaker 1>it was simply due to testing and do the testing

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<v Speaker 1>of healthier people, there would not be a rise in hospitalizations. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's a really smart point, right, And I also

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<v Speaker 1>think about the cases that do end up in the hospital.

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<v Speaker 1>Are they how severe are they and how are we

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<v Speaker 1>or what we have we learned about treating those cases

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<v Speaker 1>because we have been fighting the virus now for six

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<v Speaker 1>or seven months, well we've learned quite a bit actually,

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<v Speaker 1>And when you look at mortality you'll see that mortality

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<v Speaker 1>per person is quite a bit down. In fact, we're

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<v Speaker 1>about one quarter of the case mortality um that we

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<v Speaker 1>had in the first way, which was in March and April.

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<v Speaker 1>Largely that because we've gotten better at treating the disease

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<v Speaker 1>in hospital. We've learned how it manifests, we've learned when

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<v Speaker 1>to oxygenate went to north so we are getting much

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<v Speaker 1>better at dealing with an hospital mother doesn't change the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that if there is a really big surge, it

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<v Speaker 1>may overwhelm hospitals and I see, which is what one

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<v Speaker 1>always worries about. But on a case by case basis,

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<v Speaker 1>COVID is now much less fatal than it was when

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<v Speaker 1>we first learned about that six seven months ago. So

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<v Speaker 1>we're making progress on the therapy portion of this dr calia.

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<v Speaker 1>But of course we are still all eyes looking on

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<v Speaker 1>the race for a vaccine, astra Zenica, seeming to have

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<v Speaker 1>good news out overnight finding it worked for older population specifically,

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<v Speaker 1>which we know are the most vulnerable in this. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's not just about getting a vaccine that works and

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<v Speaker 1>gets approved. You have to scale it, you have to

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<v Speaker 1>distribute it. How far away are we from me actually

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<v Speaker 1>being able to get a shot in my arm. Yeah, well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's the question we all want to know.

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<v Speaker 1>I think most people who have following this carefully are

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<v Speaker 1>expecting announcements from several of the of the Phase three

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<v Speaker 1>trials in the next month. I think we'll have announcement

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<v Speaker 1>the next month or two that that some of these

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<v Speaker 1>Phase three trials are ready to move forward and then

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<v Speaker 1>go to market. But of course the scale up and

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<v Speaker 1>the manufacture and getting it to the people who need

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<v Speaker 1>it in some way that first gets it to people

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<v Speaker 1>who are at higher risk is going to be the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest question. And I think, you know, Carol, for you

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<v Speaker 1>and me to get it in the arms, how much, sure,

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<v Speaker 1>but probably we are. We should not be first in line.

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<v Speaker 1>The people should the first in line are people who

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<v Speaker 1>are elderly, people who hire the risk people, the groups

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<v Speaker 1>that have been suffering disproportionately from this virus. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to require a real logistical effort, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>and hope that we will do this in such a

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<v Speaker 1>way that is done equitably that the people who have

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<v Speaker 1>borne the greatest burden of COVID niting are the wants

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<v Speaker 1>to get vaccinated first. Well, and that's what I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is so much of the work you've done, um

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Galleia, you know, and I think about the people.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, one of the things the virus laid there

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<v Speaker 1>right is the inequities out there in um certain populations,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of minority population, certainly blacks within the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you hopeful that we will make sure that that

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<v Speaker 1>gets distributed to those people who are the most vulnerable,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, who might not be closest to the health

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<v Speaker 1>care facilities or you know, we've seen the stories you

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<v Speaker 1>know already before. Are you hopeful? Are you do you

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<v Speaker 1>have any kind of certainty that the vaccine will get

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<v Speaker 1>to those people? Well, hope in certainty are different matters.

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<v Speaker 1>I am, I am, I am, I am. I am

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<v Speaker 1>hopeful simply because I think there's been so much attention,

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<v Speaker 1>so much conversation, including through shows like yours, to this issue,

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<v Speaker 1>that I think it has risen in our consciousness and

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<v Speaker 1>it has become clear to everybody it is important that

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<v Speaker 1>we do this right. It is fair that we do

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<v Speaker 1>this right. There have been reports. National Academy Medicine recently

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<v Speaker 1>had a report of a commission that articulated some very

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<v Speaker 1>clear principles about how we should distribute vaccines. So I'm

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<v Speaker 1>hopeful that the administration will be sensitive to and responsive

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<v Speaker 1>to these guidelines and implement the distribution in a way

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<v Speaker 1>that is fair and bright and reasonable. And I do

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<v Speaker 1>not think, by the way, that that has to come

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily at the expense of getting the vaccine out quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>It is simply a matter of how we treage and

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<v Speaker 1>how we create algorithms for vaccine delivery. It's not just

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<v Speaker 1>about the vaccine though, Dr Galia, right. I mean, there's

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<v Speaker 1>a reason that all of these communities have been more,

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<v Speaker 1>it's hit them harder. You've done a lot of work

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<v Speaker 1>on health inequality. You think we do a better job

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<v Speaker 1>of this coming out of this and just quickly just

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<v Speaker 1>going back to hope. I hope so because if if

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<v Speaker 1>we if we don't have learn from this moment about

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<v Speaker 1>how torow some some of thecent equities, truly, twenty will

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<v Speaker 1>have been a year wasted. Yeah, gosh, um, I always

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<v Speaker 1>love when we get some time with you, as Sandra,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Dr Sandra Glea din at the

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<v Speaker 1>Boston University School of Public Health. Check out his book

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<v Speaker 1>Paining Uncomfortable Conversations about the public's Health. This is Bloomberg

0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:26.960
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Michael, you're

0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:30.840
<v Speaker 1>with us. I'm hoping on the phone from Miami. That's okay,

0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:33.400
<v Speaker 1>Hey listen, it's our New World Order. Um, good to

0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.520
<v Speaker 1>have you here with us. As Kaylee said, uh, this

0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:39.480
<v Speaker 1>is a store. It's just bananas. So tell us a

0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.680
<v Speaker 1>little bit about how this came to your attention. Well,

0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.320
<v Speaker 1>we were investigating the whole issue of chemicals that go

0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:48.640
<v Speaker 1>into making narcotics um and we wanted to find out

0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:51.200
<v Speaker 1>where they were coming from because these are chemicals that

0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:53.440
<v Speaker 1>are in the global market. They are used for many

0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:57.520
<v Speaker 1>legal things, but they're also critical for making narcotics. And

0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:01.040
<v Speaker 1>one leave that we had to investigate the chemists going

0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:04.760
<v Speaker 1>into Columbia via Ecuador. Ecuador sort of a transit point

0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:07.920
<v Speaker 1>for the supplies that are needed to make cocaine and

0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:10.959
<v Speaker 1>also transit point to get cocaine out to the world

0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:14.200
<v Speaker 1>from Columbia because of its strategic location. So that's kind

0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:16.520
<v Speaker 1>of how it started. And I basically went there and

0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.920
<v Speaker 1>began to interview police and people in the in the industry,

0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:23.160
<v Speaker 1>in the government, and that's how I came upon this story.

0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.439
<v Speaker 1>It's fascinating. Jill, come on in on us. I think

0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:28.160
<v Speaker 1>we've got your line nice and clear. Now this is

0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:31.920
<v Speaker 1>just a wild story. Yeah, And and just major prompts

0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:35.880
<v Speaker 1>to UH, to Mike and Cam Simpson for the reporting

0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:39.640
<v Speaker 1>on the story. Cam had a very similar story, um,

0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:41.400
<v Speaker 1>just a couple of weeks ago. And and this is

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 1>almost a continuation of it because what we're really looking

0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:49.640
<v Speaker 1>at here are US companies that are caught up in

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:53.880
<v Speaker 1>the international drug trade effectively. And it's not in the

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.480
<v Speaker 1>same ways that you would think of of like you know,

0:12:56.840 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 1>distributing cocaine or anything like that. It's really about the

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:05.240
<v Speaker 1>raw ingredients, and in this case it's this Texas company, Tetra,

0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 1>and and Mike give us a sense how big of

0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:09.920
<v Speaker 1>a portfolio does Tetra have in terms of all the

0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:15.000
<v Speaker 1>various chemicals that makes yeah well. Tetra specializes in supplying

0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.559
<v Speaker 1>the chemicals that go into sort of the liquids that

0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.000
<v Speaker 1>you need to drill an oil well or to do fracking.

0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:24.160
<v Speaker 1>And this particular ingredient, which is called calcium chloride, is

0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>one of the one of the things that goes into

0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 1>these fluids that are really critical for finishing oil wells.

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:32.079
<v Speaker 1>They also sell it to all kinds of crazy stuff

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:36.199
<v Speaker 1>like de icing roads, UH, keeping dust down on tennis courts,

0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:39.920
<v Speaker 1>processing cheese, drying out cheese astistic. It's an agent that

0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.640
<v Speaker 1>drives stuff out. So they're among the biggest producers in

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.440
<v Speaker 1>the world in this particular chemical, and they started to

0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of expand sales around the world into other markets

0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.320
<v Speaker 1>because the oil industry was sort of getting weaker for

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.720
<v Speaker 1>them over the last several years, and they started shipping

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.520
<v Speaker 1>and selling some of this stuff into South America and

0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 1>that's how it got diverted um into the hands of

0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:05.319
<v Speaker 1>the of the cocaine labs. UH should know that the

0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry one thing, you know, they haven't been accused

0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:12.760
<v Speaker 1>of any crime, but their product has been just flooding

0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 1>into this market somehow um for for years and they

0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:19.800
<v Speaker 1>haven't really been able to stop it or even known

0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:22.240
<v Speaker 1>about it. So bring that bring us up to speed

0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.600
<v Speaker 1>in terms of what we know about how this unfolds

0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:31.120
<v Speaker 1>in South America. Well, so the chemicals actually manufactured in

0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 1>Finland and sold to Tucher sells it to a single

0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:38.800
<v Speaker 1>supplier distributor in Lima, Peru. So once it gets to Lima,

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.080
<v Speaker 1>it goes out into the local market there and they

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 1>that supplier does what they want with it, they resell

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 1>it wherever they want and we don't really know exactly how,

0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:52.480
<v Speaker 1>but basically buyers working on behalf of the cocaine traffickers

0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:55.240
<v Speaker 1>in Colombia are just buying this stuff up who bring

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.920
<v Speaker 1>it up by the ton by the truckload and finding

0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.040
<v Speaker 1>ways to smuggle it all the way up to Columbia. Uh.

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 1>There are laws in place that are supposed to stop this,

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:06.480
<v Speaker 1>but it just doesn't work and there's just too much

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 1>and you know it keeps getting through. Michael, I have

0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 1>to hop in here first. I have to commend you

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 1>on this story. It had me at the edge of

0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.800
<v Speaker 1>my seat, and the kicker of it, I think is

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 1>one of the best parts. You say, this is a

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 1>US company who knows you informed them that it's booming.

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Exports to Peru are being used for cocaine production. They

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.160
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't tell you anything any action that they plan to take.

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:32.320
<v Speaker 1>How much of the onus is on them and how

0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 1>much is it on these governments? Well, they say they're

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:39.320
<v Speaker 1>complying with all the laws. They're using license their customer

0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:41.920
<v Speaker 1>and Peru that's buying it all is licensed to do

0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.440
<v Speaker 1>business in Peru, which is true technically, UM they say

0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 1>their customers, says Sweares, they're not going to break any laws,

0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 1>which means they're not going to sell it to Cernarco's UM.

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.200
<v Speaker 1>But the point is massive volunce that this has been

0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.160
<v Speaker 1>going into that market at the same time that the

0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:01.800
<v Speaker 1>United Nations and other UH international organizations have been warning

0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:05.800
<v Speaker 1>that this product is being diverted in Peru UH to

0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>agents for cocaine traffickers. UH. So there's been plenty of

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:12.600
<v Speaker 1>warnings out there. We found it without having to look

0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.480
<v Speaker 1>too hard, and all, you know, all I had to

0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:17.280
<v Speaker 1>do was go to actually go to Ecuador and start

0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.080
<v Speaker 1>interviewing the police because they have a special unit it

0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:23.840
<v Speaker 1>does nothing but but sees illicit chemicals coming through the

0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:26.000
<v Speaker 1>country to try to keep them from getting to the traffickers.

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:29.240
<v Speaker 1>And the more I talked to the more this this

0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.720
<v Speaker 1>brand name kept coming up, and you know, they and

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:36.200
<v Speaker 1>so it just became an endemic thing. So this company

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.280
<v Speaker 1>when I when I asked them about that, that's basically

0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:40.520
<v Speaker 1>what they said, we comply with the laws. And I said, well,

0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:42.960
<v Speaker 1>now that I've told you, UM, what are you gonna

0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 1>do about it? And they just they would, they declined

0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:50.880
<v Speaker 1>to comment any further interesting And so calcium chloride is

0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:55.560
<v Speaker 1>ultimately the chemical that we're talking about in in this application, Mike.

0:16:55.720 --> 0:17:01.000
<v Speaker 1>And that's also pretty basic chemical that know, lots of

0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:05.639
<v Speaker 1>people make other than tetra. Uh. And what's happened when

0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:11.440
<v Speaker 1>when the narcos get their hands on products other than tetras. Well, yes,

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.040
<v Speaker 1>I was a curious part of this reporting. Uh. One

0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:17.159
<v Speaker 1>of the police officers in Ecuador I interviewed about this.

0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:19.879
<v Speaker 1>He's a he's an expert, he's a chemical engineer, and

0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:23.240
<v Speaker 1>he told me that UH, Tetra makes the purest and

0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:26.679
<v Speaker 1>best quality calcium chlorid that does its job best. And

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:30.679
<v Speaker 1>he said he knows this because they arrested some of

0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:34.320
<v Speaker 1>the smugglers and interrogated them and they said, yeah, this

0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:36.359
<v Speaker 1>is sort of a brand of choice. And the fact

0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:39.920
<v Speaker 1>once I bought a truckload of of calcium florid made

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 1>in China and the my client, the narcotics lab, said

0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't we want this stuff, it's horrible. Bring us Tetra.

0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:51.280
<v Speaker 1>So they even, you know, it's sort of has become

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:55.119
<v Speaker 1>the brand of choice for all these uh, these labs

0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.200
<v Speaker 1>because of its quality. Well, this is a great story

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:00.760
<v Speaker 1>and I highly recommend that every and check it out

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:02.919
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com. I'll put it out on Twitter

0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:06.320
<v Speaker 1>and and as Joel mentioned, UH they have done a

0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:09.000
<v Speaker 1>bunch of coverage in the magazine. They did another story

0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:12.600
<v Speaker 1>on heroin UH and the US companies that are making

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.680
<v Speaker 1>kind of the hidden agreement ingredient in heroin. So there's

0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:18.320
<v Speaker 1>some great, great coverage on the drug trade and US

0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:20.440
<v Speaker 1>companies that are caught up in this story. Though. Check

0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 1>it out by Mike Michael Smith. He's Bloomberg News uh

0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:27.040
<v Speaker 1>P and I reporter and he joined us on the

0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:31.160
<v Speaker 1>phone from Miami along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber.

0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:34.080
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week Carol Master along with

0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:38.480
<v Speaker 1>kay Ley Lines. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:41.920
<v Speaker 1>Master on Bloomberg Radio. All right, you are listening to

0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.800
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week Carol Master along with Kaylee Lines on

0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:47.320
<v Speaker 1>this Monday. One of our top stories today about President

0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:50.000
<v Speaker 1>g opening up a meeting in Beijing this week to

0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 1>map out the next phase of economic development. It's the

0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:56.159
<v Speaker 1>country's fourteenth five year plan. It's expected to include a

0:18:56.160 --> 0:19:00.399
<v Speaker 1>focus around technological innovation and economic self for lines, and

0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.159
<v Speaker 1>that includes China having access to the latest and greatest

0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:05.919
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to semi conductors. As our Bloomberg New

0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.320
<v Speaker 1>Economy Editorial director Andy Brown writes in his weekly column,

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:13.000
<v Speaker 1>this is China's economic choke point. I love this story.

0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:16.399
<v Speaker 1>Andy joins us from our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio along

0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:19.960
<v Speaker 1>with Kayley, who's also back there. Uh Andy, Um, you know,

0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:21.960
<v Speaker 1>we've been talking a lot about the semi conductor area,

0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:24.360
<v Speaker 1>and I think this is just an interesting way when

0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.800
<v Speaker 1>we look at kind of what China needs, certainly going

0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.000
<v Speaker 1>forward as it tries to be a mite when it

0:19:30.040 --> 0:19:34.480
<v Speaker 1>comes to the world of technology. Exactly right. You talked

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:36.960
<v Speaker 1>about the five year Plan, the fourteen five year plan.

0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:39.560
<v Speaker 1>We're expecting something like one point four trillion dollars to

0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.480
<v Speaker 1>be devoted to technology, of which quite a bit is

0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:46.360
<v Speaker 1>going to be an effort to develop semi conductors. Don't

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:49.679
<v Speaker 1>think that they've already spent about two hundred billion dollars

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.960
<v Speaker 1>already trying to make advanced chips and they haven't actually

0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:56.440
<v Speaker 1>mastered it yet. And that in real terms, by the way,

0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:59.800
<v Speaker 1>to a billion dollars is actually more than the United

0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:04.160
<v Speaker 1>States spent on the Moon shot, the Apollo moon shot.

0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:07.600
<v Speaker 1>It's quite a lot of money. I have to feel

0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:10.240
<v Speaker 1>bad for semis and semi companies here, right, They've just

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:13.080
<v Speaker 1>been pawns in this battle between the US and China

0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:14.920
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to trade, when it comes to everything,

0:20:15.480 --> 0:20:19.840
<v Speaker 1>they are just so uh. They go with the fluctuations

0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:23.640
<v Speaker 1>and geopolitics. I mean, how can we feasibly get out

0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:25.920
<v Speaker 1>of the circle. How do you diversify the supply chain

0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.040
<v Speaker 1>so that either one of these countries can operate and

0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:31.560
<v Speaker 1>use chips without needing to interfere with the other. It's

0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:33.959
<v Speaker 1>a real problem, not just for the chip companies. As

0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:37.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, UM China is the biggest market. Their output

0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:41.000
<v Speaker 1>goes to China. It's a problem for them because if

0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:45.399
<v Speaker 1>they lose the China market, they lose the revenue that

0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:48.840
<v Speaker 1>they need to develop new chips. And as I said

0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:53.720
<v Speaker 1>in the in my newsletter, you know um uh Moore's

0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:56.280
<v Speaker 1>law states that you know, every couple of years you

0:20:56.359 --> 0:21:00.480
<v Speaker 1>double the number of transistors on a chip. The investment

0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:05.600
<v Speaker 1>required to do this, uh is enormous. So if you

0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:10.960
<v Speaker 1>actually choke US semiconductors off from the largest customers, you're

0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:15.120
<v Speaker 1>going to severely limit their ability to innovate. And that's

0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:17.840
<v Speaker 1>as an implication not just for those companies, but for

0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:20.680
<v Speaker 1>the entire U S economy we do with all those

0:21:20.680 --> 0:21:23.760
<v Speaker 1>five G I phones, right, So, you know, Andy, we

0:21:23.800 --> 0:21:26.440
<v Speaker 1>talked so much about how the US needs China, China

0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:29.320
<v Speaker 1>needs the US. I mean, this is really um a

0:21:29.359 --> 0:21:33.400
<v Speaker 1>great example of it in many ways. Correct. It is um.

0:21:33.440 --> 0:21:37.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, China is the largest supplier of electronic goods

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:42.040
<v Speaker 1>and the United States has um the best technology. UM

0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:45.960
<v Speaker 1>it it is, you know, it's it's it's a technological

0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:49.520
<v Speaker 1>problem for the Chinese leadership. I mean, here you are

0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:54.159
<v Speaker 1>right on the edge of a huge revolution UH in

0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:58.800
<v Speaker 1>technology powered by five G by you know, quantum computing

0:21:59.440 --> 0:22:04.040
<v Speaker 1>UM uh and and the precondition of this is that

0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:08.360
<v Speaker 1>you have semi conductors. China actually imports its Its biggest

0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:12.560
<v Speaker 1>import item is semi conductors, not oil. Um and and

0:22:12.600 --> 0:22:16.560
<v Speaker 1>the most advanced use US technology. It's it's a political

0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.520
<v Speaker 1>problem to China wants to say, you know, we are independent,

0:22:19.560 --> 0:22:22.640
<v Speaker 1>we we ah, we we control our own destiny. We're

0:22:22.640 --> 0:22:25.040
<v Speaker 1>not going to get pushed around by anybody. But actually,

0:22:25.359 --> 0:22:29.200
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to semi conductors, they are getting pushed around.

0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:32.440
<v Speaker 1>The United States is pretty much crippled Huawei, which is

0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:37.600
<v Speaker 1>China's technology leader. Right, So what about though, what Andy,

0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:39.880
<v Speaker 1>what China can do? Because I think about you write

0:22:39.880 --> 0:22:42.439
<v Speaker 1>about this, you know, the supply of rare earth's. You know,

0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:46.720
<v Speaker 1>will China use that as kind of a weapon or

0:22:46.760 --> 0:22:50.040
<v Speaker 1>a leverage to get the US to do what it

0:22:50.119 --> 0:22:52.520
<v Speaker 1>wants to do or you know what, how do you

0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 1>see that playing out? It's very difficult for them to

0:22:56.040 --> 0:23:00.800
<v Speaker 1>pull that lever. They really need foreign investment right now

0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:05.800
<v Speaker 1>in the economy. Uh, and you know, taking a hardline

0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:10.520
<v Speaker 1>against for instance, a you know, an apple would send

0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:14.520
<v Speaker 1>entirely the wrong signal to the entire foreign investment community.

0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 1>So they're really reluctant to do that. Um, you know,

0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:20.960
<v Speaker 1>they don't really have much option except to keep plugging

0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:24.160
<v Speaker 1>away and trying to catch up. And the problem there

0:23:24.400 --> 0:23:26.760
<v Speaker 1>is that it's not just a question of money. Money

0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:29.720
<v Speaker 1>actually doesn't get you there. China has spent way more

0:23:29.720 --> 0:23:33.280
<v Speaker 1>money than South Korea and in subsidies in Taiwan has

0:23:33.320 --> 0:23:38.400
<v Speaker 1>and of course the industry is concentrated in those two places. Um,

0:23:38.440 --> 0:23:41.200
<v Speaker 1>it's really about experience in the end, and that's something

0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:44.000
<v Speaker 1>that you can't buy. Right. Well, so then how quickly

0:23:44.040 --> 0:23:46.679
<v Speaker 1>can China make this happen and hold their own in this?

0:23:46.840 --> 0:23:49.679
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the story of China is one of just

0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:52.320
<v Speaker 1>a rapid growth trajectory, both in terms of economic growth

0:23:52.359 --> 0:23:56.720
<v Speaker 1>but also in their technological capacity. Um So, I feel

0:23:56.720 --> 0:23:58.159
<v Speaker 1>like we've come to have a lot of faith in

0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:00.400
<v Speaker 1>just the speed in which China can get things. Is done.

0:24:01.040 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 1>Not the case for this specifically, Well, it's not because

0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:07.320
<v Speaker 1>it it isn't. I mean, if if you could poach talent,

0:24:07.480 --> 0:24:11.320
<v Speaker 1>if you could spend money and you know, build the capability,

0:24:11.359 --> 0:24:12.639
<v Speaker 1>it would be one thing. But you can't. I mean,

0:24:12.640 --> 0:24:17.119
<v Speaker 1>it's cumulative and and and experience can't be bought. For

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:20.920
<v Speaker 1>the for the foreseeable future, we're talking about ten twenty years,

0:24:21.400 --> 0:24:25.120
<v Speaker 1>China is going to be highly dependent on US technology

0:24:25.240 --> 0:24:29.760
<v Speaker 1>for a core part um of its of its of

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:33.879
<v Speaker 1>its development in semiconductors. And and that's the that's the

0:24:33.920 --> 0:24:38.879
<v Speaker 1>hard truth that Chinese leaders now face. And I do

0:24:39.000 --> 0:24:41.119
<v Speaker 1>think you know, longer term, and you write about this

0:24:41.119 --> 0:24:43.320
<v Speaker 1>as well, and we've talked about this is decoupling where

0:24:43.320 --> 0:24:47.719
<v Speaker 1>we have kind of two you know technology world, right,

0:24:47.880 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 1>one aligned with China and the other aligned with the US. Yeah,

0:24:51.080 --> 0:24:54.680
<v Speaker 1>people now talk about two supply chains, the blue supply chain,

0:24:54.720 --> 0:24:58.120
<v Speaker 1>the American one, the red supply chain, the Chinese one.

0:24:58.119 --> 0:25:00.160
<v Speaker 1>And of course, you know, if if that's the way

0:25:00.200 --> 0:25:02.119
<v Speaker 1>it's going to work out, the whole world is going

0:25:02.160 --> 0:25:04.480
<v Speaker 1>to be a loser. I mean, it's gonna it's gonna

0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:08.840
<v Speaker 1>raise costs, it's gonna undermine innovation. Um, and it will

0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:13.119
<v Speaker 1>cripple the ability, will undermine, will limit the ability of

0:25:13.720 --> 0:25:17.120
<v Speaker 1>US companies, semi conducted companies to innovate. Yeah, it's really

0:25:17.200 --> 0:25:21.159
<v Speaker 1>raining in globalization and the benefits of that. UM. Andy,

0:25:21.240 --> 0:25:23.399
<v Speaker 1>thank you as always always love to check in with you.

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Of course, are Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director Andy Brown

0:25:26.960 --> 0:25:30.119
<v Speaker 1>in his weekly column check it out at Bloomberg dot com.

0:25:30.160 --> 0:25:32.400
<v Speaker 1>But certainly one of the big stories is we continue

0:25:32.440 --> 0:25:35.720
<v Speaker 1>to watch China and doing its longer term planning uh

0:25:35.720 --> 0:25:39.080
<v Speaker 1>and what it will focus on in the next decade.

0:25:39.400 --> 0:25:44.360
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:25:44.440 --> 0:25:47.040
<v Speaker 1>it is Kaylee Lines about to be the biggest I

0:25:47.200 --> 0:25:50.080
<v Speaker 1>p O ever. I mean, this is just kind of wild.

0:25:50.720 --> 0:25:53.200
<v Speaker 1>Are Andy Brown, who we just talked to about China

0:25:53.200 --> 0:25:55.600
<v Speaker 1>in the semi area. He um, We've had him on

0:25:55.720 --> 0:25:58.240
<v Speaker 1>and he's talked about how this company is kind of

0:25:58.280 --> 0:26:00.960
<v Speaker 1>a cross between jpmorget and pay Power talking about Jack

0:26:01.040 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 1>mas Ant Group. It's expected to raise about thirty four

0:26:04.880 --> 0:26:07.760
<v Speaker 1>point five billion dollars through an I p O right

0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:10.600
<v Speaker 1>in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Uh And here's a little

0:26:10.600 --> 0:26:12.880
<v Speaker 1>perspective for you. That's about the same valuation as JP

0:26:12.920 --> 0:26:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Morgan Chase, four times larger than Goldman Sachs. How about that. Um,

0:26:17.359 --> 0:26:20.120
<v Speaker 1>let's get more on this company and why it's cornering

0:26:20.160 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 1>so much attention and its role in the global financial landscape.

0:26:22.800 --> 0:26:25.919
<v Speaker 1>Blueberg News Deals reporter Crystal sees with us. She's on

0:26:25.960 --> 0:26:27.879
<v Speaker 1>the phone in New York City. Crystal, good to have

0:26:27.920 --> 0:26:31.880
<v Speaker 1>you here with us. I mean, this is a blockbuster. Yeah,

0:26:31.920 --> 0:26:35.199
<v Speaker 1>it is the biggest IPO ever. We expected, you know,

0:26:35.240 --> 0:26:37.880
<v Speaker 1>a Ramco last year to be the biggest. It turned

0:26:37.920 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 1>out to be a twenty nine billion view and then

0:26:40.320 --> 0:26:42.760
<v Speaker 1>here we come sevy five billion. So this really would

0:26:42.760 --> 0:26:45.120
<v Speaker 1>be the biggest deal. It would be a monster deal.

0:26:45.720 --> 0:26:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Why do people want to invest in it? Where's the

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:52.080
<v Speaker 1>appetite coming from? So this this, this is the story

0:26:52.320 --> 0:26:56.160
<v Speaker 1>of a very much more player in the fintech space

0:26:56.200 --> 0:26:58.080
<v Speaker 1>and not only is it a fintech player, it is

0:26:58.119 --> 0:27:00.600
<v Speaker 1>a complition like you said, and it's a paper plus

0:27:00.640 --> 0:27:03.840
<v Speaker 1>the Venmore plus the JP Morgan. So really it has

0:27:03.880 --> 0:27:06.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of influence in China because there's somehow take

0:27:06.600 --> 0:27:10.240
<v Speaker 1>over the ships market. Ships of traditional blanks path Um

0:27:10.359 --> 0:27:14.639
<v Speaker 1>E Wallace is super popular in China, and Ali paid,

0:27:14.760 --> 0:27:19.040
<v Speaker 1>which is the product that and operate, is where it's

0:27:19.080 --> 0:27:23.360
<v Speaker 1>probably the biggest player in China. So I mean that's

0:27:23.440 --> 0:27:27.400
<v Speaker 1>on its own. Just to share volume that they process

0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:31.280
<v Speaker 1>gives them this valuation in this race that they can justify.

0:27:31.640 --> 0:27:33.960
<v Speaker 1>So Chrystal, is it a company that will continue to

0:27:34.040 --> 0:27:38.119
<v Speaker 1>dominate in China and in Asia specifically, or is it

0:27:38.280 --> 0:27:41.399
<v Speaker 1>something a company that we're going to see spread throughout

0:27:41.400 --> 0:27:47.240
<v Speaker 1>the globe. Ultimately, interestingly, forty of the use of proceeds

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:51.919
<v Speaker 1>is actually going to be used for um overseas payment extensions.

0:27:52.480 --> 0:27:57.400
<v Speaker 1>And although that's that sounds like they're expanding out of China,

0:27:57.600 --> 0:28:01.119
<v Speaker 1>it's still very much focused on Neese customers. What it

0:28:01.160 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 1>really means is that they will try to expand into

0:28:03.640 --> 0:28:08.399
<v Speaker 1>merchants in in in places where Chinese tourists like to visit,

0:28:08.640 --> 0:28:10.679
<v Speaker 1>Like you know, when you go to I guess like

0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:12.440
<v Speaker 1>the Hudson Yards when you would a pair as you

0:28:12.480 --> 0:28:15.600
<v Speaker 1>would see you would see the luxury stores with an

0:28:15.600 --> 0:28:19.840
<v Speaker 1>Alipay QR code. So um, that is that is what

0:28:19.920 --> 0:28:23.479
<v Speaker 1>there is what that's what their expansion is focusing on.

0:28:23.560 --> 0:28:26.879
<v Speaker 1>But it's very much so a China specific play, and

0:28:27.359 --> 0:28:30.080
<v Speaker 1>not even within Asia. It's very much a China pel player.

0:28:30.640 --> 0:28:33.359
<v Speaker 1>Well in Crystal, it's also a Chinese listing. I feel

0:28:33.359 --> 0:28:35.560
<v Speaker 1>like it's not lost on any of us, any of

0:28:35.640 --> 0:28:37.600
<v Speaker 1>us that this wasn't a US listing. They're not on

0:28:37.640 --> 0:28:39.240
<v Speaker 1>the NICE either, They're not on the Nasdaq. The I

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:42.000
<v Speaker 1>p oed in Hong Kong and Shanghai. I'm assuming in

0:28:42.040 --> 0:28:44.440
<v Speaker 1>large part that's because of the scrutiny Chinese listed firms

0:28:44.440 --> 0:28:47.000
<v Speaker 1>are under here in the US. But how significant is

0:28:47.000 --> 0:28:50.680
<v Speaker 1>it that this thing did not price in New York City. Yeah,

0:28:50.720 --> 0:28:53.200
<v Speaker 1>the biggest deal ever is not a US listing. Is

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:56.080
<v Speaker 1>also is a Chinese company that is listing in China

0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:59.280
<v Speaker 1>and Hong Kong. That the concurrent listing is interesting. This

0:28:59.400 --> 0:29:01.760
<v Speaker 1>has not been on before. Some companies have tried to

0:29:01.800 --> 0:29:04.880
<v Speaker 1>do a simultaneous listening, but and will be the first

0:29:04.920 --> 0:29:08.560
<v Speaker 1>thing to pull it off. But more importantly, and Ali

0:29:08.640 --> 0:29:11.920
<v Speaker 1>Pay and we Chad Pay we're under White House scrutiny.

0:29:12.000 --> 0:29:14.520
<v Speaker 1>Just last months, White House was trying to ban both

0:29:14.560 --> 0:29:18.120
<v Speaker 1>products in the US. So I think that just that

0:29:18.200 --> 0:29:21.240
<v Speaker 1>also explains why US is not a friendly environment for

0:29:21.280 --> 0:29:23.360
<v Speaker 1>this IPA. Yeah, are we expected to see an a

0:29:23.440 --> 0:29:26.960
<v Speaker 1>d R at any point? It could happen, but with

0:29:27.120 --> 0:29:29.880
<v Speaker 1>thirty five billion, I don't think that is the immediate

0:29:29.920 --> 0:29:32.800
<v Speaker 1>next step for them. So what what should we take

0:29:32.840 --> 0:29:35.360
<v Speaker 1>this as a signal? We have this massive company that

0:29:35.480 --> 0:29:37.680
<v Speaker 1>is going to have a market valuation bigger than JPMorgan

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:40.560
<v Speaker 1>not listed in the United States. Is this going to

0:29:40.600 --> 0:29:43.600
<v Speaker 1>be the future of Chinese technology companies? Are really Asian

0:29:43.640 --> 0:29:47.240
<v Speaker 1>technology to be companies avoiding US listings. There hasn't a

0:29:47.240 --> 0:29:51.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of talks about Chinese businesses going to you know,

0:29:51.800 --> 0:29:55.800
<v Speaker 1>focus on their domestic market, domestic capital markets going forward.

0:29:56.200 --> 0:29:58.840
<v Speaker 1>And we saw this last year or earlier this year

0:29:58.840 --> 0:30:02.560
<v Speaker 1>with Ali baba Uh doing this homecoming list thing, doing

0:30:02.560 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 1>a second listing in Hong Kong instead, although they were

0:30:04.800 --> 0:30:07.680
<v Speaker 1>already listed in the US. So we will continue to

0:30:07.720 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 1>see more of that um trying to capture Chinese customers.

0:30:11.520 --> 0:30:14.400
<v Speaker 1>After all, the products are only available in China almost

0:30:14.400 --> 0:30:18.040
<v Speaker 1>exclusively and having that consumer base and the investor base

0:30:18.120 --> 0:30:21.800
<v Speaker 1>that understand the product really does help with the valuation.

0:30:22.120 --> 0:30:24.520
<v Speaker 1>So what does a company like and Financial mean for

0:30:24.600 --> 0:30:27.600
<v Speaker 1>some of the established players, global banking players, whether it's

0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:30.480
<v Speaker 1>a JP Morgan, whether it's a Goldman, you know, whether

0:30:30.520 --> 0:30:33.880
<v Speaker 1>it's a European global banking giant. What does it mean

0:30:34.000 --> 0:30:38.120
<v Speaker 1>potentially the impact on them? It does look like a threat,

0:30:38.160 --> 0:30:43.160
<v Speaker 1>but it really isn't because I mean, for Stata, we

0:30:43.160 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>we don't really see and Financial or Alie pay or

0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:50.320
<v Speaker 1>we chap pay even being a popular, you know product globally.

0:30:50.360 --> 0:30:53.400
<v Speaker 1>First of all, it's very much the marketing is very

0:30:53.480 --> 0:30:55.800
<v Speaker 1>much focused on China. You have to have a Chinese

0:30:55.840 --> 0:31:00.000
<v Speaker 1>bank account to open UH, to open a ali pay

0:31:00.040 --> 0:31:04.080
<v Speaker 1>to ALP service. But also those JP Morgan's proto bus

0:31:04.120 --> 0:31:07.680
<v Speaker 1>this aren't going into China anytime soon because there's a

0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 1>very strict um regulation regarding banking licenses and all all

0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:16.640
<v Speaker 1>sorts of thin tag uh regulations that you need to

0:31:16.720 --> 0:31:20.280
<v Speaker 1>get permits from the Chinese government. So, I mean, it's

0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:24.400
<v Speaker 1>two very different worlds. Just looking at the evaluation and

0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:27.680
<v Speaker 1>the scale, it looks like we can we can say

0:31:27.720 --> 0:31:29.520
<v Speaker 1>that there would be some sort of competition, but at

0:31:29.560 --> 0:31:33.120
<v Speaker 1>the stage, like with the very segregated business environment in

0:31:33.200 --> 0:31:35.560
<v Speaker 1>both countries, like we don't. I don't really think that's

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:38.480
<v Speaker 1>like the top of mind competition, right, but you have

0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:40.360
<v Speaker 1>to go. But you have to think that those big

0:31:40.440 --> 0:31:44.760
<v Speaker 1>banks are certainly watching because the financial landscape is evolving

0:31:44.800 --> 0:31:48.840
<v Speaker 1>and disrupting pretty quickly. Um, thank you so much, Crystal.

0:31:48.920 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 1>See she's one of News deals reporters. She's joining us

0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:53.600
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City. Um, what is

0:31:53.640 --> 0:31:56.320
<v Speaker 1>expected to be the largest I p O. It feels

0:31:56.320 --> 0:31:57.920
<v Speaker 1>like we talked so much about a Ramco when it

0:31:58.000 --> 0:31:59.600
<v Speaker 1>was I p O and this one like just kind

0:31:59.600 --> 0:32:02.960
<v Speaker 1>of crypt behind us, and it's like significantly bigger. Six

0:32:03.040 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars, Carol, that's quite a chunk of change. Yeah,

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:07.960
<v Speaker 1>it is, and it is interesting that it's not it's

0:32:08.080 --> 0:32:12.200
<v Speaker 1>a listing over in China, that dual listing exclusively. I'm

0:32:12.240 --> 0:32:19.360
<v Speaker 1>brother journal. Yeah, but you let me drive, no, no, no, no,

0:32:20.400 --> 0:32:25.360
<v Speaker 1>drive home, honey, please, I'll do the riding drivel. I

0:32:25.480 --> 0:32:34.240
<v Speaker 1>want to drive, just drive, baby, it's the questions trying.

0:32:40.720 --> 0:32:44.000
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks.

0:32:44.040 --> 0:32:47.720
<v Speaker 1>We'll drying up down on Bloomberg Radio. It is time

0:32:47.800 --> 0:32:49.800
<v Speaker 1>for the drive to the clothes right here on Bloomberg

0:32:49.800 --> 0:32:51.880
<v Speaker 1>Business Week, Carol Master along with Kaylee Lines. We've just

0:32:51.920 --> 0:32:54.680
<v Speaker 1>got about eleven minutes left in today's trading session. Back

0:32:54.760 --> 0:32:56.800
<v Speaker 1>with us, and great to have back with us. As

0:32:56.880 --> 0:33:00.440
<v Speaker 1>Randy Watty's chief Investments strogist at O'Neil Global Advice Isiser's.

0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:03.920
<v Speaker 1>He's with us on the phone in Washington, d C. Randy,

0:33:04.000 --> 0:33:07.400
<v Speaker 1>how are you. I'm good. I hope you and Kayleie

0:33:07.440 --> 0:33:09.760
<v Speaker 1>are are are healthy and safe in New York and

0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:12.560
<v Speaker 1>everybody's all right up there, Yeah, doing okay, thank you,

0:33:12.680 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 1>thank you. Um. We're watching the markets though, investors. Definitely,

0:33:17.000 --> 0:33:20.480
<v Speaker 1>it's a risk off trade kind of day. I think disappointments,

0:33:20.480 --> 0:33:23.320
<v Speaker 1>safe to say, concerns about those rising virus numbers that

0:33:23.400 --> 0:33:25.680
<v Speaker 1>you just mentioned, Randy, and then concerns that we haven't

0:33:25.680 --> 0:33:29.720
<v Speaker 1>gotten some kind of aid package through. Again. How do

0:33:29.840 --> 0:33:32.880
<v Speaker 1>you see the current trade right now? I mean I

0:33:33.040 --> 0:33:34.880
<v Speaker 1>would agree with the first two things you said what

0:33:34.960 --> 0:33:36.800
<v Speaker 1>you said. I would add a third, which we've talked

0:33:36.840 --> 0:33:39.840
<v Speaker 1>about previously, which is the election. The election is going

0:33:39.920 --> 0:33:42.720
<v Speaker 1>to be close. There's a lot of uncertainty about about

0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:45.120
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen. I think people again are nervous

0:33:45.240 --> 0:33:47.480
<v Speaker 1>that when we wake up on November four, we may

0:33:47.520 --> 0:33:50.600
<v Speaker 1>not know who who won the presidential election, and then

0:33:50.640 --> 0:33:51.960
<v Speaker 1>there's a question of how long is it going to

0:33:52.040 --> 0:33:56.640
<v Speaker 1>take to figure that out. Markets don't like uncertainty. Fiscal

0:33:56.720 --> 0:34:02.240
<v Speaker 1>stimulus uncertain election uncertain and COVID ramping up again another uncertainty.

0:34:02.560 --> 0:34:06.040
<v Speaker 1>I think all of that really gives investors a reason

0:34:06.160 --> 0:34:08.520
<v Speaker 1>to take profits after a heck of a run for

0:34:08.640 --> 0:34:12.360
<v Speaker 1>flows in March, Randy, what makes you most nervous? Is

0:34:12.400 --> 0:34:14.759
<v Speaker 1>it the prospect of a contested election or is it

0:34:14.880 --> 0:34:18.080
<v Speaker 1>the ultimate result? How do you think about a blue

0:34:18.120 --> 0:34:23.520
<v Speaker 1>wave or a second Trump presidency? Um? I mean historically, mathematically,

0:34:23.680 --> 0:34:26.759
<v Speaker 1>the market does a little bit better, uh, in the

0:34:26.920 --> 0:34:29.120
<v Speaker 1>in the first year of a second term president than

0:34:29.160 --> 0:34:31.360
<v Speaker 1>in the first year of a first term president. So

0:34:31.520 --> 0:34:33.759
<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of that is because normally if

0:34:33.800 --> 0:34:37.920
<v Speaker 1>an incumbent president loses, he or she loses because the

0:34:37.960 --> 0:34:41.320
<v Speaker 1>economy is weak, right, uh. I think what makes me

0:34:42.000 --> 0:34:44.680
<v Speaker 1>nervous is not the result of the election. It's the

0:34:44.760 --> 0:34:47.319
<v Speaker 1>idea that we could have an extended period of time

0:34:47.400 --> 0:34:50.880
<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty, not knowing who one I know there's been

0:34:50.960 --> 0:34:53.920
<v Speaker 1>some speculation from states like Michigan that it could take

0:34:54.000 --> 0:34:56.720
<v Speaker 1>him a week to to to to count all the votes,

0:34:56.880 --> 0:35:00.120
<v Speaker 1>and I think the market would not like that. Well, well,

0:35:00.200 --> 0:35:02.319
<v Speaker 1>so how do you or what are you thinking about

0:35:02.320 --> 0:35:04.680
<v Speaker 1>in terms of positioning ahead of the election because of that?

0:35:04.840 --> 0:35:08.120
<v Speaker 1>Or are you Randy, Well, well, you know, normally the market,

0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:11.520
<v Speaker 1>the market is actually following the script today. What's funny

0:35:11.560 --> 0:35:13.800
<v Speaker 1>is it hasn't been following the script up to this

0:35:13.960 --> 0:35:18.040
<v Speaker 1>point for the month. Normally, the market is down in September, October,

0:35:18.120 --> 0:35:21.399
<v Speaker 1>going into the election. After the election, starts to rally

0:35:21.480 --> 0:35:24.200
<v Speaker 1>in November and has a strong December. So what's really

0:35:24.280 --> 0:35:26.719
<v Speaker 1>unusual is the fact that the NASDAC and the SMP

0:35:26.840 --> 0:35:29.040
<v Speaker 1>are both up month to date and actually still are

0:35:29.640 --> 0:35:32.319
<v Speaker 1>going into today. Normal action is for investors to take

0:35:32.360 --> 0:35:36.120
<v Speaker 1>some profits off the table before the election occurs. Right,

0:35:36.160 --> 0:35:38.320
<v Speaker 1>And of course, in addition to the election, in addition

0:35:38.400 --> 0:35:40.879
<v Speaker 1>to stimulus, in addition to a pandemic, it is also

0:35:40.960 --> 0:35:43.960
<v Speaker 1>earning season. It's the biggest week of earnings. UH this week,

0:35:44.040 --> 0:35:47.160
<v Speaker 1>Randy fifteen trillion dollars in market cap reporting. Do we

0:35:47.360 --> 0:35:49.640
<v Speaker 1>care or is it all about those first three things?

0:35:49.719 --> 0:35:53.200
<v Speaker 1>I just mentioned we we do care. Earning season has

0:35:53.239 --> 0:35:58.120
<v Speaker 1>gone pretty well. The SMP has reported so far of

0:35:58.200 --> 0:36:01.320
<v Speaker 1>come in positive so ahead of x bigtations, thirteen have

0:36:01.400 --> 0:36:04.319
<v Speaker 1>coming below in one percent in line, I would say,

0:36:04.360 --> 0:36:07.399
<v Speaker 1>of note, forward estimates are not moving a great deal

0:36:07.560 --> 0:36:10.000
<v Speaker 1>right now. I think the thing that is most important

0:36:10.040 --> 0:36:13.000
<v Speaker 1>with earnings is that Q one and Q two of

0:36:13.120 --> 0:36:15.960
<v Speaker 1>next year are supposed to see a very large celeration

0:36:16.200 --> 0:36:18.920
<v Speaker 1>in earnings, especially Q two and next year, which is

0:36:19.280 --> 0:36:22.600
<v Speaker 1>projected to be by Wall Street analysts in earnings for

0:36:22.640 --> 0:36:24.640
<v Speaker 1>the S and P five hundred. And I think the

0:36:24.800 --> 0:36:28.440
<v Speaker 1>fear is are those numbers too high because this economy

0:36:28.520 --> 0:36:31.319
<v Speaker 1>is going to stall, because there is no fiscal stimulus yet,

0:36:31.360 --> 0:36:34.560
<v Speaker 1>and because the virus is ramping up again. Personally, the

0:36:34.680 --> 0:36:36.759
<v Speaker 1>thing I'm most troubled by, and you see it all

0:36:36.800 --> 0:36:40.000
<v Speaker 1>the time if you walk around Manhattan, is the hitlet

0:36:40.080 --> 0:36:42.880
<v Speaker 1>small business is taking and the number of small businesses

0:36:42.960 --> 0:36:45.320
<v Speaker 1>that are closing. We still have about eight percent of

0:36:45.400 --> 0:36:47.239
<v Speaker 1>the country out of work. You know, I think that

0:36:47.440 --> 0:36:49.960
<v Speaker 1>that's still a problem. Well, right, because as much as

0:36:50.040 --> 0:36:54.120
<v Speaker 1>we focus on the large cap and publicly held companies

0:36:54.239 --> 0:36:57.200
<v Speaker 1>Randy that ultimately the backbone is those small companies, and

0:36:57.360 --> 0:37:00.640
<v Speaker 1>ultimately if they come undone, which we have already seen

0:37:00.640 --> 0:37:03.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot come undone, if that continues and the trends

0:37:03.160 --> 0:37:09.040
<v Speaker 1>get worse, ultimately that will impact the big cap guys also, absolutely,

0:37:09.040 --> 0:37:11.080
<v Speaker 1>because it will affect consumers ability to spend, and that

0:37:11.440 --> 0:37:13.760
<v Speaker 1>that's one of the reasons we need a stimulus package

0:37:13.760 --> 0:37:15.440
<v Speaker 1>out of Washington. I think you know they owe it

0:37:15.480 --> 0:37:17.960
<v Speaker 1>too small small and mid sized businesses, and I think

0:37:18.000 --> 0:37:20.000
<v Speaker 1>the market and investors are frustrated that they haven't been

0:37:20.040 --> 0:37:23.080
<v Speaker 1>able to to come to some kind of agreement. So

0:37:23.239 --> 0:37:25.720
<v Speaker 1>talk to me about small caps. As looking crunching the numbers,

0:37:26.320 --> 0:37:28.520
<v Speaker 1>the Russell is down about four percent so far this year.

0:37:28.560 --> 0:37:30.120
<v Speaker 1>You've got the S and P up about five percent

0:37:30.239 --> 0:37:33.800
<v Speaker 1>this year. You've got the Nastack up about this year Russell.

0:37:33.960 --> 0:37:37.200
<v Speaker 1>Though the small cap names have had quite a rally,

0:37:37.719 --> 0:37:41.400
<v Speaker 1>up about six from that March low. Um, what's your

0:37:41.440 --> 0:37:42.920
<v Speaker 1>take on this group? What are you seeing is their

0:37:42.920 --> 0:37:47.760
<v Speaker 1>opportunity here? We think there is opportunity. Normally, small caps

0:37:47.880 --> 0:37:49.840
<v Speaker 1>are are more cyclical than some of than some of

0:37:49.920 --> 0:37:52.480
<v Speaker 1>the larger companies because they get a bigger portion of

0:37:52.560 --> 0:37:56.080
<v Speaker 1>their revenues from the US versus overseas. The fact that

0:37:56.200 --> 0:37:59.759
<v Speaker 1>small cap has started to pick up is actually quite positive.

0:38:00.160 --> 0:38:02.640
<v Speaker 1>It's actually quite positive sign for the market usually means

0:38:02.680 --> 0:38:05.799
<v Speaker 1>good things further ahead. I think investors, you know, are

0:38:05.840 --> 0:38:07.880
<v Speaker 1>starting to get more optimistic that there is going to

0:38:07.960 --> 0:38:11.799
<v Speaker 1>be a stronger economic recovery next year. I would note

0:38:12.200 --> 0:38:15.680
<v Speaker 1>small cap is greatly underperformed large cap the last couple

0:38:15.719 --> 0:38:18.840
<v Speaker 1>of years. Small cap used to trade out a premium

0:38:18.960 --> 0:38:21.480
<v Speaker 1>to large cap and now trades a kind of parody

0:38:21.560 --> 0:38:25.880
<v Speaker 1>to a discount. So on a relative valuation basis, right now,

0:38:26.000 --> 0:38:29.160
<v Speaker 1>small caps actually pretty cheap. So if you feel that

0:38:29.400 --> 0:38:31.640
<v Speaker 1>the economy is going to pick up next year, you

0:38:31.680 --> 0:38:34.160
<v Speaker 1>would want to start allocating some money going forward as

0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:36.800
<v Speaker 1>a small cap versus large Do you think the economy

0:38:36.840 --> 0:38:40.000
<v Speaker 1>is going to pick up next year? I think I

0:38:40.120 --> 0:38:42.480
<v Speaker 1>think it is going to pick up next year. My

0:38:42.680 --> 0:38:45.600
<v Speaker 1>question is when I am nervous that it's going to

0:38:45.640 --> 0:38:47.960
<v Speaker 1>be a tough winner, and I'm pretty nervous about Q

0:38:48.080 --> 0:38:51.040
<v Speaker 1>one earnings to be blunt. So then Randy call a

0:38:51.160 --> 0:38:54.520
<v Speaker 1>value rotation for me? When does it happen? I think

0:38:54.560 --> 0:38:56.800
<v Speaker 1>it's the second half of next year. For value to

0:38:56.880 --> 0:38:59.080
<v Speaker 1>get going, you really need two things to occur. You

0:38:59.160 --> 0:39:01.479
<v Speaker 1>need you need basic materials and energy to do better,

0:39:01.800 --> 0:39:04.399
<v Speaker 1>and you need you need financials, particularly banks to do better.

0:39:04.480 --> 0:39:07.240
<v Speaker 1>Now the curve has has steepened a little bit recently,

0:39:07.600 --> 0:39:10.160
<v Speaker 1>but you know, rates are still very very low. So

0:39:10.320 --> 0:39:12.360
<v Speaker 1>I think you've got to feel better about banks and

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:15.120
<v Speaker 1>about energy prices to get to get more bullish on

0:39:15.360 --> 0:39:17.160
<v Speaker 1>on value because there's such a big part of the

0:39:17.320 --> 0:39:19.879
<v Speaker 1>of the of the index. Until we start to see

0:39:19.920 --> 0:39:22.880
<v Speaker 1>those signs, we still want to stick with growth. And frankly,

0:39:22.960 --> 0:39:26.080
<v Speaker 1>we still like technology, all right. I know it's hard.

0:39:26.160 --> 0:39:28.120
<v Speaker 1>It's hard not to. I mean not just because it

0:39:28.200 --> 0:39:30.640
<v Speaker 1>just keeps trending high and higher, but even the stories,

0:39:30.680 --> 0:39:34.520
<v Speaker 1>the fundamental stories behind it, Randy, makes sense, right. I

0:39:34.640 --> 0:39:37.680
<v Speaker 1>think the key on technology is do you feel more

0:39:37.800 --> 0:39:40.719
<v Speaker 1>comfortable that technology companies next year are going to hit

0:39:40.800 --> 0:39:43.520
<v Speaker 1>their earnings estimates? Or let the overall S and P

0:39:43.680 --> 0:39:46.759
<v Speaker 1>is going to hit its earnings estimates. Right now, technology

0:39:46.840 --> 0:39:49.360
<v Speaker 1>as a group is forecast to have the same earnings

0:39:49.400 --> 0:39:51.359
<v Speaker 1>growth as the S and P. I think it has

0:39:51.360 --> 0:39:53.600
<v Speaker 1>a better chance of making those numbers. All right, good

0:39:53.640 --> 0:39:56.000
<v Speaker 1>stuff as always, Randy, Thank you so much for while

0:39:56.120 --> 0:39:59.960
<v Speaker 1>Randy Watt's chief investment strategies at O'Neil Global Advisors, joining

0:40:00.120 --> 0:40:02.719
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Washington, d C. Thanks so

0:40:02.840 --> 0:40:05.640
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0:40:05.719 --> 0:40:08.600
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0:40:08.680 --> 0:40:10.719
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0:40:10.760 --> 0:40:13.439
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