Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: The current administration, the Biden White House is setting an
Speaker 2: ambitious pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions over sixty percent
Speaker 2: by twenty thirty five. Now whether that's feasible is obviously
Speaker 2: in question. With Donald Trump said to dissolve US climate regulations.
Speaker 2: Tom Sire of Galvani's Climate Solutions writes, twenty twenty five
Speaker 2: is not about climate, It's about energy demand. Renewables should
Speaker 2: be at the center of new energy built, no matter
Speaker 2: your political persuasion, Tom, I'm pleased to say joins us
Speaker 2: now you're excited about the year ahead because of that idea.
Speaker 2: I'm curious, have you talked to anyone in the incoming
Speaker 2: Trump administration or of that party's persuasion that convinces you
Speaker 2: that they see things similarly.
Speaker 3: Well, I haven't talked to anybody directly in the administration.
Speaker 3: I've talked to a bunch of Republicans in Congress and
Speaker 3: Republicans who are advising the administration. I would say what
Speaker 3: I'm seeing is what's driving energy is markets, costs, international competitiveness,
Speaker 3: national security, and those are things. There's going to be
Speaker 3: a lot of political talk. There is a lot of
Speaker 3: political talk, the words drill, baby, driller, you know, renewed
Speaker 3: part of the American conversation. But what we're really seeing
Speaker 3: is the differential in costs. So if you look at
Speaker 3: renewables are cheaper. Now, if you're following where natural gas is,
Speaker 3: and we're talking a lot about the more demand for
Speaker 3: electricity in the United States and around the world, renewables
Speaker 3: are cheaper. What we're seeing is they're continuing to get
Speaker 3: much cheaper at the same time that natural gas in
Speaker 3: the United States. I don't know how closely you guys
Speaker 3: follow it. It was three dollars in eighty six cents
Speaker 3: and mcf this morning. That's almost double where it was.
Speaker 3: And in fact, in Europe natural gas is twelve dollars
Speaker 3: in eighty six cents in mcf. So when we talk
Speaker 3: about exporting liquefied natural gas to Europe, it's because we
Speaker 3: want to sell something that we can sell at three
Speaker 3: dollars and eighty six cents for twelve dollars in eighty
Speaker 3: six cents across the pond. Obviously, that's going to push
Speaker 3: the cost of American natural gas up. So when we
Speaker 3: really look at international competitiveness for the United States of
Speaker 3: America in electricity. When we look at it in terms
Speaker 3: of cars, what we can see is the markets, business
Speaker 3: economics are driving us to clean energy. That's where we're going.
Speaker 3: There's nothing political talk can do about it. That's what
Speaker 3: the costs say. That's international competitives. That's how we're going
Speaker 3: to win.
Speaker 2: Okay, So the cost structure that you believe will make
Speaker 2: the argument for us, which industries are going to make
Speaker 2: that case to the White House, the incoming White House,
Speaker 2: because they're looking at the energy industry, the oil production
Speaker 2: and gas companies, and they're saying, you know, we're going
Speaker 2: to move forward. We're going to go explore and look
Speaker 2: for oil in all these different places, the Arctic wherever.
Speaker 3: For all the industries, including AI that are demanding electricity,
Speaker 3: they're going to want the cheapest electricity because that's what
Speaker 3: it's a huge driver of how they compete internationally. And
Speaker 3: the cheapest electricity is going to be renewable. That's true
Speaker 3: here and it's true around the world. So when we
Speaker 3: talk about the idea about moving back to fossil fuels,
Speaker 3: the implication is somehow fossil fuels are cheaper. They're not cheaper,
Speaker 3: they're already more expensive. In twenty twenty three, eighty six
Speaker 3: percent of new electricity generation in the whole world was renewable.
Speaker 3: They weren't doing it to be nice. It's all about
Speaker 3: international competitiveness and national security. The sun is going to
Speaker 3: keep shining, the wind is going to keep blowing, regardless
Speaker 3: of what political people do. So this is something that's
Speaker 3: going to be driven by business decisions, and honestly, I
Speaker 3: think the Trump administration will get behind it because that's
Speaker 3: what's going to drive American competitiveness.
Speaker 1: When I talk to Republicans, they say that they just
Speaker 1: want the market to decide and they're above all in
Speaker 1: for all energy across the spectrum. Do you think deregulation
Speaker 1: that this Income administration talks about will help renewables as
Speaker 1: well as much as it's going to help the fossils.
Speaker 3: There's no doubt about it. There is no doubt why.
Speaker 1: Moving Biden didn't lean into that, and the deregulation.
Speaker 3: Well, I think he did lean into it. But I
Speaker 3: think that this is a difficult problem because it's a
Speaker 3: political problem, and it includes people on the left who
Speaker 3: want to make sure that everything we do in terms
Speaker 3: of sighting and permitting is done perfectly. I think that
Speaker 3: the Trump administration, because they really want to permit new
Speaker 3: oil and gas drilling, are going to be pushing for
Speaker 3: faster permits and lower oversight. And I think that if
Speaker 3: that goes, including to renewables, what we're going to see
Speaker 3: is an explosion of low cost, abundant renewable energy. That's
Speaker 3: what we're going to see.
Speaker 1: You say the US is short energy next year.
Speaker 3: How how is that true?
Speaker 1: Yeah, We're the biggest crude producer in the entire world.
Speaker 1: We have an abundance. We're an exporterer.
Speaker 3: So if you look at so let's talk about crude
Speaker 3: for a second. We produce thirteen and a half million
Speaker 3: barrels of oil every single day. We're the biggest producer
Speaker 3: of oil in the world. We're the biggest producer of
Speaker 3: oil in the history of the world. If we do
Speaker 3: everything that the Trump administration wants to do in terms
Speaker 3: of Alaska opening up those lines, in more than five
Speaker 3: years from now, we'll go from thirteen and a half
Speaker 3: million barrels a day to fourteen Give me a break,
Speaker 3: that's the big revolution. Thirteen and a half to fourteen
Speaker 3: and five years. Mental points. No, it's hardly any change
Speaker 3: and in the context of a world that uses one
Speaker 3: hundred and two million barrels a day. So when you
Speaker 3: really look at what's going on in this world, we're
Speaker 3: going to have to produce a lot more electricity, and
Speaker 3: that's something which is going to come from renewables. If
Speaker 3: you look at oil demand, the developed world has already
Speaker 3: peaked its oil demand. China is going to be peaking
Speaker 3: its fossil fuel demand in twenty twenty seven. That is
Speaker 3: not something where demand is going to be growing. Electricity
Speaker 3: demand is growing dramatically. Gasoline usage is either flat or
Speaker 3: going down.
Speaker 2: They're three mile.
Speaker 1: Yes, tech companies are now going after their own electricity electricity.
Speaker 1: I do think there's more for nuclear.
Speaker 3: Look, the question in nuclear is simple. There's the question
Speaker 3: about toxicity, nuclear waste. There's a question about making sure
Speaker 3: you don't have a true disaster, which is what Free
Speaker 3: Mile Island is normally associated with. And there's cost. And
Speaker 3: there are two kinds of nuclear. But we're talking now
Speaker 3: about fission, which is the kind of nuclear energy that
Speaker 3: we've been using for decades and that France uses so
Speaker 3: much of, and then we still use a lot of
Speaker 3: the question with fission has been every time that people
Speaker 3: have tried to bring fishing on in the United States,
Speaker 3: it hasn't been cheap. If you look at the last
Speaker 3: nuclear plant to be brought up, it was brought up
Speaker 3: in Georgia, and I honestly think it was something at
Speaker 3: least four x the original cost, very very expensive energy.
Speaker 3: In fact, that's energy that is very expensive versus renewables
Speaker 3: that are very cheap. It's a little more. It's more
Speaker 3: complicated that because you have to talk about base load energy.
Speaker 3: But I'm just saying, if you look at nuclear energy,
Speaker 3: the promise has been there for a long time that
Speaker 3: it would be abundant and cheap, but they've never gotten
Speaker 3: it to be cheap.
Speaker 2: So can these big tech companies get the energy they
Speaker 2: need from renewable energy? I mean, is there enough of
Speaker 2: that right now? Or there's no.
Speaker 3: Question there's enough. The question about electricity, and particularly electricity
Speaker 3: for AI, is it has to be available twenty four
Speaker 3: to seven, three sixty five with absolute certainty, no interruptions,
Speaker 3: no brain So the real issue here is how much
Speaker 3: base load energy, stuff that you can definitely call on
Speaker 3: at any time, do you need and where's that going
Speaker 3: to come from? Can it come from batteries, Can it
Speaker 3: come from hydro, can it come from nuclear, Can it
Speaker 3: come from fossil fuels? And can it come from enhanced
Speaker 3: geo thermal. There are a lot of different questions, There
Speaker 3: are a lot of pull with different answers, and you know,
Speaker 3: everybody's trying and everybody wants to get baseload energy that's
Speaker 3: really cheap, and you know, we have some I have
Speaker 3: some opinions about that, but the proof of the pudding
Speaker 3: is going to be in the eating. Who can really
Speaker 3: produce it? How much can they produce and can it
Speaker 3: be completely reliable?
Speaker 2: All right, Tom stars setting us up for a discussion
Speaker 2: that we'll be having for the years to come. Tom,
Speaker 2: appreciate your joining us today. Tom's great time to be
Speaker 2: here with galvanized Energy.