1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:09,799 Speaker 2: The current administration, the Biden White House is setting an 3 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 2: ambitious pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions over sixty percent 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: by twenty thirty five. Now whether that's feasible is obviously 5 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 2: in question. With Donald Trump said to dissolve US climate regulations. 6 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 2: Tom Sire of Galvani's Climate Solutions writes, twenty twenty five 7 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: is not about climate, It's about energy demand. Renewables should 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: be at the center of new energy built, no matter 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 2: your political persuasion, Tom, I'm pleased to say joins us 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,919 Speaker 2: now you're excited about the year ahead because of that idea. 11 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 2: I'm curious, have you talked to anyone in the incoming 12 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 2: Trump administration or of that party's persuasion that convinces you 13 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 2: that they see things similarly. 14 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 3: Well, I haven't talked to anybody directly in the administration. 15 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 3: I've talked to a bunch of Republicans in Congress and 16 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 3: Republicans who are advising the administration. I would say what 17 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 3: I'm seeing is what's driving energy is markets, costs, international competitiveness, 18 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 3: national security, and those are things. There's going to be 19 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 3: a lot of political talk. There is a lot of 20 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 3: political talk, the words drill, baby, driller, you know, renewed 21 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 3: part of the American conversation. But what we're really seeing 22 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 3: is the differential in costs. So if you look at 23 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 3: renewables are cheaper. Now, if you're following where natural gas is, 24 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,039 Speaker 3: and we're talking a lot about the more demand for 25 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,919 Speaker 3: electricity in the United States and around the world, renewables 26 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 3: are cheaper. What we're seeing is they're continuing to get 27 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 3: much cheaper at the same time that natural gas in 28 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 3: the United States. I don't know how closely you guys 29 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 3: follow it. It was three dollars in eighty six cents 30 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 3: and mcf this morning. That's almost double where it was. 31 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 3: And in fact, in Europe natural gas is twelve dollars 32 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 3: in eighty six cents in mcf. So when we talk 33 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: about exporting liquefied natural gas to Europe, it's because we 34 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: want to sell something that we can sell at three 35 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 3: dollars and eighty six cents for twelve dollars in eighty 36 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 3: six cents across the pond. Obviously, that's going to push 37 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 3: the cost of American natural gas up. So when we 38 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 3: really look at international competitiveness for the United States of 39 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 3: America in electricity. When we look at it in terms 40 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 3: of cars, what we can see is the markets, business 41 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 3: economics are driving us to clean energy. That's where we're going. 42 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 3: There's nothing political talk can do about it. That's what 43 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 3: the costs say. That's international competitives. That's how we're going 44 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 3: to win. 45 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 2: Okay, So the cost structure that you believe will make 46 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 2: the argument for us, which industries are going to make 47 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 2: that case to the White House, the incoming White House, 48 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 2: because they're looking at the energy industry, the oil production 49 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: and gas companies, and they're saying, you know, we're going 50 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 2: to move forward. We're going to go explore and look 51 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 2: for oil in all these different places, the Arctic wherever. 52 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 3: For all the industries, including AI that are demanding electricity, 53 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 3: they're going to want the cheapest electricity because that's what 54 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 3: it's a huge driver of how they compete internationally. And 55 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 3: the cheapest electricity is going to be renewable. That's true 56 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 3: here and it's true around the world. So when we 57 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 3: talk about the idea about moving back to fossil fuels, 58 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 3: the implication is somehow fossil fuels are cheaper. They're not cheaper, 59 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 3: they're already more expensive. In twenty twenty three, eighty six 60 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 3: percent of new electricity generation in the whole world was renewable. 61 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 3: They weren't doing it to be nice. It's all about 62 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: international competitiveness and national security. The sun is going to 63 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 3: keep shining, the wind is going to keep blowing, regardless 64 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 3: of what political people do. So this is something that's 65 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 3: going to be driven by business decisions, and honestly, I 66 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,839 Speaker 3: think the Trump administration will get behind it because that's 67 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 3: what's going to drive American competitiveness. 68 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: When I talk to Republicans, they say that they just 69 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: want the market to decide and they're above all in 70 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: for all energy across the spectrum. Do you think deregulation 71 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: that this Income administration talks about will help renewables as 72 00:03:57,840 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: well as much as it's going to help the fossils. 73 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 3: There's no doubt about it. There is no doubt why. 74 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: Moving Biden didn't lean into that, and the deregulation. 75 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 3: Well, I think he did lean into it. But I 76 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 3: think that this is a difficult problem because it's a 77 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 3: political problem, and it includes people on the left who 78 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:18,679 Speaker 3: want to make sure that everything we do in terms 79 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 3: of sighting and permitting is done perfectly. I think that 80 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 3: the Trump administration, because they really want to permit new 81 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 3: oil and gas drilling, are going to be pushing for 82 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 3: faster permits and lower oversight. And I think that if 83 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 3: that goes, including to renewables, what we're going to see 84 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 3: is an explosion of low cost, abundant renewable energy. That's 85 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 3: what we're going to see. 86 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: You say the US is short energy next year. 87 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 3: How how is that true? 88 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, We're the biggest crude producer in the entire world. 89 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 1: We have an abundance. We're an exporterer. 90 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 3: So if you look at so let's talk about crude 91 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 3: for a second. We produce thirteen and a half million 92 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 3: barrels of oil every single day. We're the biggest producer 93 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 3: of oil in the world. We're the biggest producer of 94 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 3: oil in the history of the world. If we do 95 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 3: everything that the Trump administration wants to do in terms 96 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 3: of Alaska opening up those lines, in more than five 97 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 3: years from now, we'll go from thirteen and a half 98 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 3: million barrels a day to fourteen Give me a break, 99 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 3: that's the big revolution. Thirteen and a half to fourteen 100 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 3: and five years. Mental points. No, it's hardly any change 101 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 3: and in the context of a world that uses one 102 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 3: hundred and two million barrels a day. So when you 103 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 3: really look at what's going on in this world, we're 104 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 3: going to have to produce a lot more electricity, and 105 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 3: that's something which is going to come from renewables. If 106 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:48,359 Speaker 3: you look at oil demand, the developed world has already 107 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 3: peaked its oil demand. China is going to be peaking 108 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 3: its fossil fuel demand in twenty twenty seven. That is 109 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 3: not something where demand is going to be growing. Electricity 110 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 3: demand is growing dramatically. Gasoline usage is either flat or 111 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 3: going down. 112 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: They're three mile. 113 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: Yes, tech companies are now going after their own electricity electricity. 114 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: I do think there's more for nuclear. 115 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 3: Look, the question in nuclear is simple. There's the question 116 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 3: about toxicity, nuclear waste. There's a question about making sure 117 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 3: you don't have a true disaster, which is what Free 118 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 3: Mile Island is normally associated with. And there's cost. And 119 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 3: there are two kinds of nuclear. But we're talking now 120 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 3: about fission, which is the kind of nuclear energy that 121 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 3: we've been using for decades and that France uses so 122 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 3: much of, and then we still use a lot of 123 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,799 Speaker 3: the question with fission has been every time that people 124 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 3: have tried to bring fishing on in the United States, 125 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 3: it hasn't been cheap. If you look at the last 126 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 3: nuclear plant to be brought up, it was brought up 127 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 3: in Georgia, and I honestly think it was something at 128 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 3: least four x the original cost, very very expensive energy. 129 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 3: In fact, that's energy that is very expensive versus renewables 130 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 3: that are very cheap. It's a little more. It's more 131 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 3: complicated that because you have to talk about base load energy. 132 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 3: But I'm just saying, if you look at nuclear energy, 133 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 3: the promise has been there for a long time that 134 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,559 Speaker 3: it would be abundant and cheap, but they've never gotten 135 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 3: it to be cheap. 136 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 2: So can these big tech companies get the energy they 137 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: need from renewable energy? I mean, is there enough of 138 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 2: that right now? Or there's no. 139 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 3: Question there's enough. The question about electricity, and particularly electricity 140 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 3: for AI, is it has to be available twenty four 141 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 3: to seven, three sixty five with absolute certainty, no interruptions, 142 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 3: no brain So the real issue here is how much 143 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 3: base load energy, stuff that you can definitely call on 144 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 3: at any time, do you need and where's that going 145 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 3: to come from? Can it come from batteries, Can it 146 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 3: come from hydro, can it come from nuclear, Can it 147 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 3: come from fossil fuels? And can it come from enhanced 148 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 3: geo thermal. There are a lot of different questions, There 149 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 3: are a lot of pull with different answers, and you know, 150 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 3: everybody's trying and everybody wants to get baseload energy that's 151 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 3: really cheap, and you know, we have some I have 152 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 3: some opinions about that, but the proof of the pudding 153 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 3: is going to be in the eating. Who can really 154 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 3: produce it? How much can they produce and can it 155 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 3: be completely reliable? 156 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 2: All right, Tom stars setting us up for a discussion 157 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 2: that we'll be having for the years to come. Tom, 158 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 2: appreciate your joining us today. Tom's great time to be 159 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 2: here with galvanized Energy.