1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Sarah Hunt of Valpine 10 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: saxon Words, writing, it may take a couple of months 11 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 2: to see the real world effect of the trading slow 12 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: down caused by the tariff situation. It's hard to believe 13 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 2: this all started only four weeks ago. Sarah, good Morning, 14 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 2: Good Morning said the same thing yesterday was a month gone. 15 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: This has been brutal, hasn't it. 16 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 3: It has been quite a lot to happen in a 17 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:57,959 Speaker 3: short period of time. And I think you know I've 18 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 3: talked about this before. I think market participates are so 19 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 3: used to immediate effects and immediate information flow that we 20 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 3: don't all remember that this all takes time to play 21 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 3: out through the economy. So this only started four weeks ago. 22 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 3: The actual effects of that are not even close to 23 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 3: being seen, And all you're seeing right now is the 24 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 3: ancillary effects that are people are worried about. 25 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 2: Equity markets have recovered at the index level on the 26 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,839 Speaker 2: S and P five hundred, policies haven't changed too much. 27 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: What kind of changes people expect them and how quickly? 28 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: Well, I think this is the big question. Right So, 29 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 3: you had a really decent earning season for the most part. 30 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,199 Speaker 3: You had a number of companies call out the problems. 31 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 3: You had a number of issues, but the capex was strong, 32 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 3: the AI story stays intact. That was very helpful I 33 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 3: think for markets, and that was very important. But now 34 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 3: we get back to Okay, now what's going to happen 35 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 3: in trade? And we still don't know, And I think 36 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 3: that is the sooner we can get any kind of 37 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 3: clarity on that, the better. But right now I think 38 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 3: that that just leaves us in a tough position risk 39 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 3: reward wise. 40 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: If someone were on the US Central Bank, they might 41 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: be really happy that we have so rarely mentioned the 42 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: FED on a day when the two day meeting is 43 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: starting and they do have to come out with some 44 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: prognostications tomorrow. I am wondering how much of a possible 45 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: put this is later in the year if the FED 46 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: were to cut rates more significantly. That's what John and 47 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: Emory were hearing yesterday from Chris Harvey of Wells Fargo. 48 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: Are reaffirming the seven thousand level. Do you buy that well? 49 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 3: I think that the Fed's in a tough place for 50 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 3: all the reasons that have been discussed right we have 51 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 3: still some inflationary pressures. The labor market's holding up, the 52 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 3: earnings are holding up, the economy is holding up pretty well. 53 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 3: The question is going to be if you start to 54 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 3: see deterioration in that labor market, and we certainly have 55 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 3: heard anecdotally layoffs from different companies. Some of it is 56 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 3: specific to them, some of it is just general industry 57 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 3: and a lack of hiring. And I think if that 58 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 3: starts to catch up, you could see those cuts. But 59 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,839 Speaker 3: because of the other issues and the price is paid 60 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 3: index and where you're seeing inflation, I think it's very 61 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 3: difficult to bake in as much as we're baking in 62 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: right now. 63 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: To be fair, I'm trying to figure out if we've 64 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: learned anything that basically companies have been coming in with momentum, 65 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: they have done pretty well if you take a look 66 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: at the earnings as a whole. Mohammad al Aaran was 67 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: saying that the raw data is showing that momentum is 68 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: sort of pretty robust heading into this, and then you 69 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: have a FED that has quite a lot to potentially cut. 70 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: If there is some sort of cheriation of the data, 71 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:10,839 Speaker 1: is that enough for you to see this as more 72 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: than just a bear market rally. 73 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 3: Well, I think it really is going to depend on 74 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 3: a number of things. One of them is getting some 75 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 3: certainty because we're still seeing a lot of pull forward 76 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 3: because people don't know, so people are still buying ahead, 77 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 3: not just companies pulling an inventory, but individuals making choices. 78 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,119 Speaker 3: That makes the data look very good in the near term. 79 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 3: And the question is is it going to soften at 80 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 3: the end of the year the hard data, not the 81 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 3: survey data. So if that starts to be a problem 82 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 3: and the FED can cut, I think that's going to 83 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 3: be helpful. But where markets are right now on the 84 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 3: equity side, I think it's a little difficult to see 85 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 3: how you can really get that next leg up unless 86 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 3: you think that there is a path forward that doesn't 87 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 3: have so much uncertainty and chaos, and I don't think we. 88 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 4: Know that yet. 89 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 5: Well, the whole point of the Trump administration they've talked 90 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 5: about is game theory, strategic uncertainty. But what if we 91 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 5: end where Trump started ten percent around the world, sixty 92 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 5: percent on China? How would the market digest that? 93 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 3: It would be probably some relief in that, to be fair, 94 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 3: because the numbers were so much higher. And I think 95 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 3: that that's part of that game theory. I'm going to 96 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 3: throw out a bunch of numbers and where we're going 97 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: to end up somewhere lower. But in the interim, you 98 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 3: are seeing some people getting stuck trying to figure out 99 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 3: do I pay for things at that level? Do I 100 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 3: cancel this? You've seen a lot of cancelations, and you've 101 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 3: got a big freight market and an ocean freight market 102 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 3: that's in a chaotic state right now. So sorting that 103 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:23,280 Speaker 3: out is going to take some time. And unless there's 104 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 3: a path on the other side of that where people 105 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 3: feel comfortable, I think it's going to be difficult. 106 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 2: Place you brought up the Federal Reserve, the FED, last 107 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: mount of March nineteenth. March nineteenth is a lifetime ago, 108 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 2: and think about the response to that meeting. I remember 109 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: the Davish interpretation, just the very idea they saw any 110 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: kind of inflation bump as one off. Then the out 111 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 2: years of twenty six twenty seven, inflation comes back down. 112 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 2: Super Dovish market is absolutely ripped. And you and I 113 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 2: remember having a conversation about a more hawkish interpretation, this 114 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 2: idea that they saw a deceleration in growth and yet 115 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 2: they didn't increase their outlook for interest rate cuts. And 116 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 2: I wonder if the more hawkish interpretation becomes that much 117 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 2: more relevant in the months to come, not oft this meeting, 118 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 2: but next one when they have to put out fresh 119 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 2: full cast ale over again. 120 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 1: Stagflation is a central bank's nightmare. Stagflation is what a 121 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 1: lot of people are talking about. Are stagflationary likes trends 122 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 1: at a point when that's what we're seeing on the 123 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: margins communicated in the data like yesterday's ism services, how 124 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: do they respond to that in a way that somehow 125 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 1: is constructive for this market. Given the fact that stagflation 126 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 1: really is one of the difficult things that a central 127 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: bank has to deal with they don't have perfect tools 128 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: to counter that. 129 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 2: I think what the equity market would like to hear 130 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 2: is Governor Waller his words from cham and Pal. How 131 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 2: likely is that. 132 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 3: I think that's a bit difficult at this juncture. So 133 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 3: I think that it would be you'd need to see 134 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 3: some real data changes before you could get that shift 135 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 3: in tone from one to the other. And I'm not 136 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 3: sure that that is anything we're going to see in 137 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 3: certainly not this week, I don't think, and into the 138 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 3: next month we'll see. 139 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 1: How concerned are you that there appears to be not 140 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: necessarily a shadow FED, but some sort of countervailing force 141 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: on the FOMC that's creating a question around political I 142 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 1: don't want to say interference, but political clouds hovering around 143 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve. 144 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 3: I think that we've seen it very often that you've 145 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 3: got this argument between politics and the FED. And I 146 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 3: don't know that this is any worse except that it 147 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,799 Speaker 3: has been. You now have a president who's actually willing 148 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: to say something out loud in that way. I don't 149 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 3: think that the FED acts in a political way. I 150 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 3: think that they are going to continue to do what 151 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 3: they think they need to do for the economy, but 152 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 3: it makes it far more difficult, and it makes the 153 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 3: bar a little bit higher if someone's pushing on you 154 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 3: to do something that you don't necessarily want to do 155 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 3: and you don't want to look like you're capitulating. So 156 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 3: I think that there is an issue there. 157 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: Have you even watching the press conference tomorrow? 158 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 2: Always okay? 159 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: So what are you hoping to hear? 160 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 3: I'm expecting to hear not a whole lot and a 161 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 3: dance again between that inflation, but the dance between inflation 162 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 3: and the labor market, right, because that's the tension that 163 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 3: they're going to keep calling out. The labor market still 164 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 3: looks pretty good until you start to see that. Solten, 165 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 3: I think it's hard to say anything that is specific 166 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 3: about what I'm going to do. I'm going to do 167 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 3: X if Y happens. So I think I'm looking to 168 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 3: hear more of that dance and to see if there's 169 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 3: any changes on the margin. 170 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 2: Can you just pretend it's going to be really exciting 171 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 2: for us? Super exciting? 172 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 3: Absolutely? I can't wait. 173 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 2: Live coverage one point thirty tomorrow afternoon on Blimback TV. 174 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 2: I'm blimberk ridio it studying. That's the prim of Sara. 175 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 2: Let's build on some of this. We've been trading on 176 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 2: retric the prospective deals negotiations. When does the substance stots 177 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 2: to Matt, so, what does a deal actually look like? 178 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 3: I think the problem is that because we don't have substance, 179 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 3: we can't make those plans out right. I don't know 180 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 3: what the substance looks like. And I think that's the 181 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 3: biggest problem is that there isn't a specific absolute I 182 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 3: know we're looking for this ask, I know we're looking 183 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,239 Speaker 3: for that, and once we get that, we'll have a deal. 184 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 3: It still continues to be amorphous, and that's why people 185 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 3: are struggling, both on the corporate side and on the 186 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 3: investment side. 187 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 5: Or given how integrated the US and Canada are the economies, 188 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 5: if this meeting actually does go south, how negative could 189 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 5: that be for the equity market? 190 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 3: I think it could be pretty negative, just because it 191 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 3: is one of the like, this is somebody that we 192 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 3: shouldn't necessarily be fighting with, right, this is a country 193 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 3: that we've had a long series of negotiations and agreements with, 194 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 3: So to put this on footing that becomes very negative. 195 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 3: I think would be more of an outlook for how 196 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 3: that's going to go elsewhere than it would be as 197 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 3: much about the US Canada relationship. But I also think 198 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 3: that that is an important relationship and you don't want 199 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 3: to see that go south. And I think that's that 200 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,679 Speaker 3: would be very I think that would be very negative. 201 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 5: Do you know, to Jonathan's point to Tyler earlier, do 202 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 5: you know what a win would be for the United 203 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:38,239 Speaker 5: States when it comes to Canada and trade. 204 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 6: Well. 205 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 3: I think this has been the problem throughout this last 206 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 3: couple of weeks, where we hear about a memorandum of 207 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 3: understanding or we hear about a trade framework of a framework, 208 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 3: is that there isn't a clear picture for what winning 209 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 3: really looks like. So not knowing what those parameters are, 210 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 3: it's hard to game out what the odds are that 211 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 3: those parameters are acceptable. 212 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: And of course it's also a dynamic type of picture, 213 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: as many of the executives have talked about, with the 214 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 1: market playing a leading role. Julian Emmanuel of evercore is 215 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 1: I came out and said that because the market had 216 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: performed so much better over the past nine trading days, 217 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 1: it gave President Trump the room to actually talk more 218 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: tough talk with respect to tariffs, and that would lead 219 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,679 Speaker 1: to a pullback, and it sort of has this range 220 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: that he's playing with to try to use the market 221 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: to understand what his potential guidelines are. How much do 222 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: you think about that from an investing standpoint? 223 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 3: I think that that is exactly the problem that the 224 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,080 Speaker 3: investment world tries to react so quickly and the real 225 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 3: world cannot. That we're already over something that hasn't happened 226 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 3: yet on equity markets, and I think that that's one 227 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 3: of those reasons that I don't disagree with him. I 228 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 3: think that there is an absolute case to be made 229 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 3: for the fact that a recovery in financial markets means 230 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 3: that you take that as see, we can get through this. 231 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 3: And part of that recovery was backing off to begin 232 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 3: with and moving it ninety days, and the other part 233 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 3: of that recovery was earnings. But how much are those 234 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 3: earned things going to flow through continuously through the next 235 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 3: several months, because we don't know where they're going. And 236 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 3: to Cameron's point, earlier margins are really going to be 237 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 3: in question because the costs picture is unclear, because the 238 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 3: supply chain is unclear, So we're already discounting something that 239 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 3: hasn't even happened, and we've already decided it's okay. 240 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: Over the past couple of decades, there's been this focus 241 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: on Wall Street about getting faster and getting a time 242 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 1: edge on other people, getting closer to electricity sources, that 243 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: you can respond to information more quickly to everybody else. 244 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: Has this been the death of that that getting information 245 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: first is not any kind of advantage whatsoever, and that 246 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 1: everybody has to shift to another frame of reference when 247 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: it comes to investing that is longer term, more patient, 248 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: more I don't know, private, something else that is not 249 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: sort of high frequency trading. 250 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 3: I think you're dead on right now because I think 251 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 3: that the absolute chaos and uncertainty that we're living through, 252 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 3: rightly or wrongly for the end outcome, makes that information 253 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 3: not as important because you don't know which way should 254 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 3: really direct things. FED meetings. Even before this, you could 255 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 3: watch the reaction to what the FED said, and that 256 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 3: markets would be up and down and up and down 257 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 3: in the same hour because people couldn't figure out which 258 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 3: way we were actually going. And now I think you've 259 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 3: just put that on steroids, and you've added other types 260 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 3: of information to that, not just what the FED things, 261 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 3: but what's happening both in the economy and what the 262 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 3: administration wants to do, So getting a piece of information 263 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 3: first is not necessarily directionally easily interpreted. 264 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 2: Let's just say that Friday's a great example of that. 265 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 2: We had the poor director from Los Angeles, Jan Soroka 266 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 2: and Gene told us what was happening with trade volumes 267 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 2: as of this week, that we had a thirty percent 268 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 2: roll off in bookings of arrivals. And we'll sit around 269 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 2: the table and we're like, Okay, what happens next. And 270 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 2: there's a big debate about what happens next and over 271 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 2: what timeline and what it should mean for markets, because 272 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 2: markets might not even respond to it, they might just 273 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 2: shake it all off. On the prospective deals and the horizon, 274 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 2: which gives you a forward look of better economic data 275 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 2: around the corner, how are we going to trade bad 276 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 2: data in the next couple of months If the President 277 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 2: is still going around saying deals, deals, we're going to 278 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 2: close lots of deals. 279 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 3: I think that there is a point at which that 280 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 3: rhetoric no longer is as effective. And because this is 281 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 3: also recent again, we're talking about a four or five 282 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 3: week period now, since we even started. The rhetoric has 283 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 3: been very effective. But the longer you go without having 284 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 3: something done, the less you can goose things with saying 285 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 3: it's going to be done. It's going to be done, 286 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 3: and the more problematic it becomes when when those goods 287 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 3: are not coming over or going back, and you've got 288 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 3: not the right things, are not situated in the right 289 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 3: way to get those trade flows started again. 290 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: This is the window everyone's talking about. The window. No 291 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 2: one really knows how big it is, but this is 292 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 2: ultimately it. Ultimately you have to show something otherwise eventually 293 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 2: you get that bad data and this market will have 294 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: to try it on it. 295 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: Eventually those ships will not have gotten here with those goods, 296 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: and eventually retailers will have to adjust and the pricing 297 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 1: ramifications will happen, and potentially layoffs will happen. And this 298 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: is the reason why Jane Fraser of City Group yesterday 299 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: at the Melkon conference was talking about this gap between 300 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 1: hard data and soft data and how it has to 301 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: close even though people say that it could persist, and 302 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: which way it's going to close is not clear, and 303 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: I really mean that because it could close to the 304 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 1: upside or it could close to the downside. 305 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 2: The President likes to wanka negotiations to the extreme, which 306 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 2: is why it goes out there with some pretty flamboyant 307 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 2: statements at time. The Europeans have been quite reserved through 308 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 2: all of this over the last several weeks. This just 309 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 2: drops this report that the EU is targeting one hundred 310 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 2: billion euros of US goods with Taris IV talks fail, 311 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 2: just setting up the talks in a different way from 312 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 2: the European side over the coming weeks. 313 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 5: The fantastic scoop from our colleagues over in Europe. What 314 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 5: you see here playing out is a caarden stick approach 315 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 5: now from Brussels. Last week was in the Financial Times 316 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:42,319 Speaker 5: they were looking at fifty billion euros worth of purchases 317 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 5: of US goods like soybeans, like LNG. And now what 318 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 5: they're saying, if we don't get a deal, we are 319 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 5: going to go after one hundred billion. 320 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 6: Euros worth of US goods. 321 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 5: What I find so interesting right now about the Europeans 322 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 5: is they don't come up a lot in conversations I 323 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 5: have with administration officials. It's all about Japan, or India 324 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 5: or South Korea. What's going on with Canada. We're going 325 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 5: to meet with China at some point. Europe it seems 326 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 5: to be silent. 327 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: At the same time, the trade chief in Europe came 328 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 1: out this morning and talked about how if you tally 329 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 1: up all the goods that could potentially have some reciprocal 330 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 1: tariffs on them from under President Trump, it would equal 331 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: six hundred and twenty two billion dollars worth. So they're 332 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: writing down on pieces of paper, calculating like something's not adding. 333 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: So we're going to have to come out here with 334 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: a threat, and maybe that's what predicated this discussion this morning. 335 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 2: Stock's responding to that headline. We're down by about three 336 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 2: quarters to one percent, just an extra inch lower on 337 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 2: the screen on the S and P. Five hundred. Stock's 338 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 2: a little softer. Sarah, thank you. I'm going to see 339 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:47,479 Speaker 2: you as always, Sarah Hunt. There a vampire Saxon Woods 340 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 2: turn back to policy, taxes and tariffs and focus with 341 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary Scale Busts and testifying before Congress today and 342 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: tomorrow joining us now, Congressman Frenchhill, how if they House 343 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 2: Financial Services Committee, Congressman, our good friend, welcome back to 344 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 2: the program, sir, talk us through and just frame if 345 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 2: you can your approach to these hearings over the next 346 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 2: few days. 347 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 7: What do you want to hear you bet well, Jonathan, 348 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 7: great to be with you this morning. Secretary Investment comes 349 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 7: to both the House Appropriations Committee and House Financial Services 350 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 7: today for the first time as Treasury Secretary, and I 351 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 7: think you'll see questions about the President's economic policy. He's 352 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 7: put his policy as the centerpiece of deregulation, right sizing regulation, 353 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 7: making sure that the American businesses and families don't have 354 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 7: a big tax increase at the end of the year, 355 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 7: and using a trade strategy that encourages investment in the 356 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 7: United States, foreign direct investment in the US, and more 357 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 7: fairness for American products and services abroad. 358 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 6: I think all. 359 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 7: Those things will be subjects of questions in both committees. 360 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 2: You, of course, French represent the home state of Walmart. Congressman, 361 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 2: what do they want to hear of the next twenty 362 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 2: four Ultimately what is the company CINCA. 363 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 7: Well, all my constituents, including Walmart, have made it very 364 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 7: clear to President Trump and to their trade associations who 365 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 7: interned have made it very clear to the White House 366 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 7: they want resolution and certainty as about to what the 367 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 7: care of strategy is and as it relates to imported 368 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 7: goods that would be found in Walmart or a department store, 369 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 7: those decisions have to be made pretty promptly or you're 370 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 7: going to see, in my judgment, impact on what's on 371 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 7: store shelves this fall and even this summer, and you're 372 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 7: going to see price increases this summer potentially as well. 373 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 7: I think that message was delivered quite clearly by American 374 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 7: retail businesses principally. 375 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 5: Well, the message was delivered, But is there understanding you 376 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 5: got from Walmart from your other constituents that they received 377 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 5: an optimistic tone from this White House about where the 378 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 5: future of trade is actually going to end up. 379 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 7: Well, this is something that we've continued to talk about 380 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 7: on this show in Congress, which is what is the strategy. 381 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 7: You have a China strategy, you have a trade fairness 382 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 7: and reciprocity strategy. You have a bring business back to 383 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,679 Speaker 7: the US strategy. Sometimes those things are in conflict and 384 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,199 Speaker 7: they're tough to do all at once. That's why I 385 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 7: think that the idea of let's square things away at 386 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 7: USMCA with Canada and Mexico, Let's make sure we're on 387 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 7: the same page with Japan Korea and the European Union. 388 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 6: Those are first and foremost. 389 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 7: I think that will help us then get the best 390 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 7: kind of leverage we can as we work on the 391 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 7: toughest nut in the group, which is how do we 392 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 7: have trade fairness and in China's mercantilistic trade policy around 393 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 7: the world. 394 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 5: Congressman though, did Walmart though, leave that meeting in the 395 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 5: Oval Office feeling like the President heard them and that 396 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 5: they're listening to their concerns. 397 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 7: Well, from the reports I've got, the answer was yes. 398 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 7: I mean President Trump worked very hard in his first 399 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 7: term to make sure that consumers were not immediately impacted 400 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,679 Speaker 7: by his tariff negotiations, as he attempted to design a 401 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 7: teriff strategy that would bring jobs back to the US 402 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 7: and foreign direct investment back to the US, but not. 403 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 6: Hit consumer pocket boats directly. 404 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 7: And so I think that was the message that was delivered, 405 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 7: and from what I've heard, I think he got that 406 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:24,680 Speaker 7: and heard that message quite clearly. 407 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,199 Speaker 5: Do you have a sense, and maybe you're going to 408 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,239 Speaker 5: get this from the Treasury Secretary this week of a 409 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 5: timeline on when all these negotiations would actually come to fruition. 410 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 7: Well, as I've said, based on talking to my constituents, 411 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 7: whether they're big European, Mexican or Canadian relationships that we 412 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 7: have in Arkansas, or a big global company like Walmart. 413 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 7: So the sooner that we have clarity and certainty to hear, 414 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 7: the better for business planning. 415 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 6: I think that's good for business outlook. 416 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 7: And I think that's good for the American economies to 417 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 7: have certainty. Nobody questions the desire to have better tree 418 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 7: Maid fairness, improve USMCA, stop dump goods from coming into 419 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 7: Canada and Mexico and into the North American market. Those 420 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 7: are all worthy goals, But the question is we need 421 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 7: realistic strategies to achieve them, and we've got to make 422 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 7: sure that we can clearly communicate that to the American people. 423 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: Congressman, there also is this question of how feasible it 424 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: is to get some sort of tax deal, one of 425 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: the other prongs of Secretary Bestin's goal through Congress at 426 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 1: a time where there are a number of red lines 427 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 1: that need to be crossed. That's expanding the deficit, potentially 428 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: cutting Medicare and Medicaid in order to get no tax 429 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: on tips and some of the other sweeteners. How feasible 430 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: do you think that it is to get some sort 431 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 1: of consensus among your colleagues on that. 432 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 7: Well, we've had seven of our committees now report their 433 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 7: reconciliation plans. Next week you'll see Agriculture, Energying, Commerce, Ways 434 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 7: and Means conduct their work. These are important committees. They 435 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 7: have the bulk of the savings in those committees to 436 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:57,679 Speaker 7: be debated among members. 437 00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 6: And then what is that tax plan. 438 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 7: Trump has absolutely been leading in private meetings with Secretary Johnson, 439 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 7: with Speaker Thune, with Ways and Means, Chair Smith, and 440 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 7: Chair mccuthrie at Energy and Commerce, and so I think 441 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 7: we're going to find that right spot where we can 442 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 7: hold Republicans together and meet the President's objectives for reconciliation. 443 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 7: But the next two weeks are very very important. 444 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, That's why I was going to ask Congressman, how 445 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: quickly does something need to get passed for there to 446 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: be a positive spin at a time where there's a 447 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 1: three legged stool and one of the legs is really 448 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 1: remaining in quested, or actually two of them are the 449 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 1: trade policy as well as what gets actually passed. How 450 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,199 Speaker 1: quickly does it have to get passed for there to 451 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: be a change in tone, certainly among polls. 452 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 6: Well, I think it's important. We've tried to. 453 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 7: We've put a premium on the House under Mike Johnson's leadership, 454 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 7: of getting the tax and spinning reform plan through the 455 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 7: House as soon as possible, and you've seen, as I said, 456 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 7: seven of our committees have already done our reconciliation work. 457 00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,719 Speaker 7: In the next two weeks we hope to complete it. 458 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 7: I think that sends the message to the Senate that 459 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 7: the House is serious, the House has the votes. We 460 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 7: want to get President Trump's spending and tax priorities through 461 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 7: the Congress, and that I believe will be send the 462 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 7: right signal both to the economy, to planning, and be 463 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 7: a key plank as you noted in the President's Economic 464 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 7: Policy Congressman. 465 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 5: But you know, of course we're going to need pay fers, 466 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 5: and our audience is keen to know where you stand 467 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 5: on this issue. Do you think stock buyback tax could 468 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 5: be on the table when it comes to reconciliation package. 469 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,439 Speaker 7: I think the stock buyback tax is a dumb idea. 470 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,919 Speaker 7: It was a dumb idea when Chuck Schumer offered it. 471 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 7: You're hurting individual caareholders, You're you're hurting payment pension plans, 472 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 7: So I don't think that's something that should be used. 473 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 7: I think it hurts economic growth, and I think it 474 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 7: hurts individual family investments in their pension funds and in 475 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 7: their individual accounts. 476 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 2: At You'll plump best. Congressman, Thank you, sir, as always 477 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 2: appreciate it. Congristman French Show great, A hey from you, sir, 478 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Media stocks falling after President Trump 479 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 2: threatened one hundred percent tariff on movies produced overseas. Jason 480 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 2: Pass and I have city writing investors have viewed Netflix 481 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 2: as immune to tariff risks that may no longer be true. 482 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 2: Jason joins US now for more. Jason, welcome to the program. Circuits, 483 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 2: get your thoughts. Another shaka, another shock to ultimately deal 484 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 2: with in process without much detail or clarity about what 485 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 2: happens next. Just how exposed you think Netflix actually is? 486 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 4: Well, I think if one hundred percent tariff went through, 487 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 4: I think they would be very exposed. 488 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 6: I suspect that what. 489 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 4: Trump is really trying to do is just nudge more 490 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 4: production into the US, and there we estimate that US 491 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,199 Speaker 4: production costs are maybe thirty five percent higher than overseas, 492 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 4: and so will that will limit that will limit the 493 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 4: damage I think to Netflix. 494 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 5: So, Jason, you think that this is a max most 495 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 5: approach and that Trump is not actually going to implement 496 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:04,719 Speaker 5: one hundred percent tariff. 497 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 4: Well, look, there's there's a lot of questions on the 498 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 4: street about whether even has the legal authority to impose 499 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 4: one hundred percent tariff. There's a law in the books 500 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 4: called the Burman Act, which says you can't impose tariff's 501 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 4: on intellectual property. In Trump's tweet, he cited national security 502 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 4: concerns related to the production of movies, so he's going 503 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 4: to try and get around it. That sort of raises 504 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 4: all sorts of legal questions. So I think, like Trump 505 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 4: always does, he's just trying to get maximum leverage early 506 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 4: on in the negotiation. But I think the ultimate goal 507 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 4: is to nudge more production on US soil. 508 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 5: And he has Governor Newsom coming out and talking about it. 509 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 5: He has industry leaders coming out and talking about it. 510 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 5: He said yesterday is going to have a meeting with 511 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 5: all of them. What would a federal tax credit for 512 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 5: the industry mean? 513 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 6: Well, it would, I mean it would. 514 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 4: It depends how large the tax credit is, but ultimately, 515 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 4: you know, the text credit would have to be large 516 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 4: enough to more than offset the production savings that the 517 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 4: media companies enjoy by producing overseas. So if you had, 518 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,400 Speaker 4: if you had let's assume my thirty five percent numbers, right, 519 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:11,719 Speaker 4: if you had a tax incentive that was larger than 520 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 4: the thirty five percent, you could see production moved to 521 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 4: the United States and it would actually be an earnings 522 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,199 Speaker 4: positive for these media companies. If it's smaller than that, 523 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 4: it would be a negative to earnings, but would boost 524 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 4: employment and sort of help the overall US economy. 525 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 1: Jason, not to get philosophical, but what does it mean 526 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: to be produced to the United States? Is that a 527 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 1: clear concept to you? 528 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 6: No, it's not a clear concept. 529 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 4: I mean a lot of these movies and TV shows, 530 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 4: you know, have a hybrid approach, and so every production 531 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 4: is different. It's not black and white like something that's manufactured, 532 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 4: and so it's it's a gray area, very very tough 533 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 4: in my seat to analyze with precision. 534 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 6: But I think the broad. 535 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 4: Goal is just get a larger percentage, let's call it 536 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 4: that produced in the United. 537 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 2: States, Jason, a tax break sufficient to which that what 538 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 2: makes it so much more expensive to produce content in 539 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 2: this country? 540 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 4: Well, mostly it's labor costs. I mean, that's the main thing. 541 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 4: And then a lot of the overseas markets are providing 542 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 4: tax incentives as well, so you've got a twin benefit 543 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 4: if you produce overseas tax credits and lower labor costs. 544 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 2: And that should have them with the pricing of the 545 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 2: overall product as well. Jason, I think we wanted to 546 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 2: finish on that with you just how immune and insulated 547 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 2: as a company n Netflix going up against the prospect 548 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 2: of an economic downturn. I know we haven't seen it 549 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 2: in the hard data just yet, but how we should 550 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 2: we be? 551 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,120 Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't think particularly worried. 552 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 4: You know, Netflix's advertising revenues are you know, call it 553 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 4: one or two percent of the overall revenues. I think 554 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 4: they'll be able to grow AD revenues even if we 555 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 4: see an AD recession, just because they're in such a 556 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 4: nascent you know, part of their arc in terms of 557 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 4: moving into the ad market. 558 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 6: In terms of subscriptions. 559 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 4: You know, when we run the math, Netflix is still 560 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 4: the cheapest app service out there for video on a 561 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,439 Speaker 4: dollar per minute consumed, so it's it's probably half the 562 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 4: cost of a company like Disney on a per per 563 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,400 Speaker 4: minute consumed. It's probably one fifth the cost of streaming 564 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 4: services like Paramount or Max or Peacock on a per 565 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 4: minute consumed, So I think reasonably inflated from recession risk. 566 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 2: Interesting. I appreciate the frame, and Jason, thanks for your 567 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 2: time this morning's sir, Jason passin there of city, Jonathan 568 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 2: Pingle of UPS, writing, we see a worsening growth and 569 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 2: inflation trade of facing the FORMC. We expect no changes 570 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 2: to the policy stance. Jonathan joins us. Now for more, 571 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 2: Jonathan Wike to the program, Sir, You're certainly not alone 572 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,639 Speaker 2: expecting no change tomorrow. Most people expect no changes. What 573 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 2: happens after that? This came from Janhatsis of Goldman. He said, 574 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 2: we expect enough evidence to accumulate for a fight July. Jonathan, 575 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 2: do you think we'll have enough evidence fight July to 576 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 2: make that kind of cool? I? 577 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 6: No. 578 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 8: I mean so, first of all, I actually have a 579 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 8: lot of sympathy for Yan's forecast the moment where ours 580 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:17,119 Speaker 8: isn't isn't that much different from his based on what 581 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 8: I've seen, But I'm expecting that the May data looks okay, 582 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 8: and it's really going to be sort of June, July 583 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 8: August data that's released July August, September that makes the 584 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:35,479 Speaker 8: case for rate cuts at the September meeting. But you know, 585 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 8: it's one of those things where you know your previous 586 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,359 Speaker 8: speakers were talking about it. We think you're going to 587 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 8: start to see some of the inflation impacts in next 588 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 8: week's CPI report. I just think the labor market's going 589 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,400 Speaker 8: to lag a little bit. I think that's really what's 590 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 8: going to drive the fence calculus over rate policy eventually 591 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 8: if it's weak enough. 592 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 6: Anyway. 593 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:56,879 Speaker 1: That goes to the part of the question, Jonathan, has 594 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,919 Speaker 1: the damage already been done? Is there already enough more 595 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,360 Speaker 1: moving down the pipeline to cause some sort of near 596 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 1: term inflationary surge at the same time as a downward 597 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,439 Speaker 1: kind of pressure on the overall economic growth trajectory. 598 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 8: I mean, I think that's right least. I don't think 599 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,760 Speaker 8: it's like a discrete jump at the moment. But you know, 600 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,440 Speaker 8: if all terriffs went away, I would not snap back 601 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 8: my GDP forecast to where we were, and we would 602 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 8: not snap back our inflation forecast where we were. But 603 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 8: I think you're at a crucial sort of four or 604 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,919 Speaker 8: five months juncture here where every month it lasts longer, 605 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 8: the more the economic damage is going to be done. 606 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 8: And you know, as I've sort of been trying to 607 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 8: tell people, you know, if the bulk of these terrors 608 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 8: stay in place for the bulk of the year, I mean, 609 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 8: the bulk of the economic damage is going to be done. 610 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 1: There's a larger question here about if there is some 611 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: sort of trade resolution and there is some sort of 612 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 1: better tone in markets, could there be an inflationary shock 613 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 1: in addition to pretty solid growth. I mean, we've been 614 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: talking about sagflationary types of winds, but a lot of 615 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 1: the companies and their earnings reports portrayed a pretty positive 616 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 1: pact chop in terms of economic growth. Is there an 617 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 1: upside risk for a federal reserve that has to be 618 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 1: cautious about how quickly they cut rates? 619 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 8: Well, I think that's exactly the kind of trade off 620 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 8: they're facing, is that they don't know. I mean, equities 621 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 8: of rally back pretty impressively actually following the draw down 622 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 8: after the April second announcements. So that's exactly the challenge 623 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 8: for the Fed and Chuir Powell, we expect on Wednesday 624 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 8: is going to say how the dual legs of the 625 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,640 Speaker 8: mandate might be intentioned. If growth holds up fine, this 626 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 8: is a FED that could be on hold for a 627 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 8: long time. Or if the inflation trade off is bad 628 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 8: and often growth is fine, maybe even put hikes back 629 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 8: on the table. I think though, one of the questions 630 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 8: I think they're going to face those if the labor 631 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 8: market weaken sufficiently, I think they're going to end up 632 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 8: asking themselves, what are the points are the tools? 633 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 6: Because at some. 634 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 8: Point there might not be anything to restrain, right, if 635 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 8: the labor market's weak enough, you know, what are you 636 00:29:58,840 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 8: trying to restrain? 637 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 6: Right? 638 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 8: I mean, if it's slackening the economy for you due 639 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 8: to the negative growth impacts, it sort of calls into 640 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 8: the question the role of its restrictive monetary policy in 641 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 8: the first place. 642 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 6: So, you know, it is a. 643 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 8: Really tough spot for the FED, and it's gonna and 644 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 8: the potential outcomes depend a lot on really uncertain data forecasts. 645 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 1: I just want to carry that through. Are you saying 646 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 1: that at a certain point, if there's an inflationary impulse 647 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 1: at the same time as we can in growth, there's 648 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: not really much of this FED can do that. It's 649 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: kind of out of tools. 650 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, in a way. 651 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 8: I mean, you know, they'll have other questions to ask, 652 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 8: like is there credibility being called in a question? Or 653 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 8: longer run inflation expectations becoming unanchored higher. 654 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 6: But you know, when we were roaring out of the. 655 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 8: Pandemic, you know, there was a role for higher rates 656 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:53,959 Speaker 8: to play in restraining the supply demand mismatch. I mean, 657 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 8: aggregate demand and the layer market were just surging. I 658 00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 8: mean there was a role for rates to play in 659 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 8: that growth. If growth is contracting, or the labor markets contracting, 660 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 8: or the unemployment rates rising rapidly, monetary policy doesn't really 661 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 8: need to be there. 662 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 6: To make it rise faster. 663 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,280 Speaker 8: You know, if non farm payroll employment tips negative, they 664 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 8: don't need to make it more negative, you know. So 665 00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 8: there might be a point at which the usefulness of 666 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 8: the tools become an important question. 667 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 2: Johnath than can we do psychology? Does legacy have a 668 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,120 Speaker 2: role to play? Does the legacy of chairman poll have 669 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 2: a role to play over the next twelve months when 670 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,479 Speaker 2: he knows after this he's out, he's done. 671 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 8: I think the legacy struck me in March because it 672 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 8: became clear in March when you looked at the SEP 673 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 8: that this was a chair who no longer expected to 674 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,360 Speaker 8: get inflation back to two percent on a sustainable basis 675 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 8: during his current term. Now, I think history could be 676 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 8: written a number of different ways, because if I look 677 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 8: at the incoming data on the ECI, the recent inflation data, 678 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 8: average hourly earnings, I think it looks like they are 679 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 8: on track to nail the soft landing. So whether this 680 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 8: next surge is a fault of you know, if history 681 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 8: writes this as a fault of the chair or the 682 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 8: tariffs or the next FED chair, I mean, that remains 683 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 8: to be seen, and I think we'll have to see 684 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 8: how it plays out. But I have been struck. 685 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 6: You know. 686 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,600 Speaker 8: I do think the FMC was getting close to nailing 687 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 8: the soft landing, but at this point I think it's 688 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 8: probably going to escape Chair Powell's term. 689 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 2: This situation certainly gets hout of That's for show. Jonathan 690 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 2: Pinglely you ps, Jonathan, thank you. This is the Bloomberg 691 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:40,920 Speaker 2: Savenants podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, anchient politics. 692 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 2: You can watch the show live on bloombag TV weekday 693 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 2: mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to 694 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 695 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 2: and as always, on the bloom Black Terminal and the 696 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.