1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: Single best idea, We'll get right to it, and I say, 3 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 2: what an eventful August. It has become part of that 4 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 2: is synthesizing what's going on. In my litmus paper this morning, 5 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: the key point on my Bloomberg launchpad was a ten 6 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: year real yield. We are now down at the bottom 7 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: of the range one point eighty five percent, and any 8 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: movement down would be a huge ye. It was a 9 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 2: major theme for me today and that centers around the 10 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: growth bet here's Paul Dunovan of UBS. 11 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 3: Well, it does. 12 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: Mean I think that the bond market is focusing more 13 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 1: on the growth concerns. So to the extent that one 14 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: believes in the far sighted ability of bond traders, then 15 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: you know that's a signal of worries about the future. Personally, 16 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: I told my face in the far fight's ability of 17 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: economists so betrayed us. But you know whatever, So there's 18 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: an element there. As you're seeing that compression of the 19 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 1: real yield, it does at the margin help with the 20 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: sustainability of government financing because if the real yield is 21 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: coming down, what that is telling you is that you know, 22 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 1: tax revenues relative to indust rate costs are sort of shifting. 23 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: The revenue does a little bit better relative to the 24 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 1: industrate cost. Fairly marginal thing, but it does help, particularly 25 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: with a deficit as large as the United States now 26 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: has and with the debt level that it has. 27 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 2: Paul Donovan of UBS and Uproar in the last three 28 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 2: four or five days over President Trump's firing of the 29 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: BLS Commissioner, Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway speaking with William Beach, 30 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: the former commissioner. He's been a good friend of the 31 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: show back decades. We spoke with Erica Groshan, who was 32 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 2: there before William Beach. She said very good things about Beach. 33 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 2: But Erica Grosshen here on what the next BLS commissioner 34 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 2: should do. 35 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 3: I think the next BLS commissioner should follow in the 36 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:16,359 Speaker 3: steps of all of the preceding BLS commissioners, and that 37 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 3: really starts with the very first BLS commissioner, Carol Wright. 38 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 3: And we're talking about eighteen eighty four, and I want 39 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 3: to read you what he said about about the commitment 40 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 3: that he thought was the BLS was making to the 41 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 3: American people. He said BLS would be devoted to and 42 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 3: I quote, the fearless publication of the facts, regardless, without 43 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 3: regard to the influence those facts may have upon any 44 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 3: party's position or any partisan's views. That was eighteen eighty four, 45 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 3: and that, I think is what we're looking for. Someone 46 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 3: with the technical chops and the commitment that all the 47 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 3: previous BLS commissioners have had. 48 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 2: Erica Groshen there now at Cornell and of course with 49 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: all of her work at BLS and before that the 50 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 2: New York Fed. On podcasts, we're just stunned by the 51 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 2: podcast response across the nation on Apple, on Spotify, and 52 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 2: on YouTube podcast Thank you. It's single best I do