Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey P joe P Zapia,
Speaker 1: and it's time to look ahead for the games in
Speaker 1: week and nine in the NFL. Some really good value
Speaker 1: last week early on, we nailed the Cincinnati Bengals. We
Speaker 1: also nailed the under on the Jets Giants, which wasn't
Speaker 1: too hard, but still we nailed that one anyway, and
Speaker 1: a few other gems. A few things did not go
Speaker 1: our way, but that's okay. That's the nature of the Beast.
Speaker 1: We're always going to be here making sure we celebrate
Speaker 1: the w's and well take responsibility for the ls. That's
Speaker 1: also a big part of this and to help us
Speaker 1: get through week nine and see if there's some early
Speaker 1: value this week, Pat fitz Morris and Sam Hoppen joined
Speaker 1: me as always here on the program. Gentlemen, let's jump
Speaker 1: right into it. Before we get to some of the
Speaker 1: pieces this week that we want to take some early
Speaker 1: looks on, I want to remind everybody we've got a
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Speaker 1: don't forget with BP bets smarter, not harder. So let's
Speaker 1: do that. Let's bet smart here, and let's start with
Speaker 1: Thursday night football, always a fun place to start. I
Speaker 1: guess we're gonna get Mitchell Trubisky for this game. I
Speaker 1: don't know, it's early, so we'll not sure what we're
Speaker 1: gonna figure out here. But Will Levis we are going
Speaker 1: to get again in Week nine in the NFL. Will
Speaker 1: Levis somehow was the cheap coat unlocking DeAndre Hopkins. Who'd
Speaker 1: have thought the number for this game, gentlemen, is thirty six.
Speaker 1: Right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers are three point favorites at
Speaker 1: home against Tennessee. If you like Tennessee for the upset
Speaker 1: plus one thirty that's available as well. Pat let's take
Speaker 1: a look at this game here. I know Levis exceeded
Speaker 1: all expectations the Pittsburgh Steelers. The injury to Kenny Pickett
Speaker 1: really kind of ruined that opportunity for them to win
Speaker 1: at home against Jacksonville. So what do you make out
Speaker 1: of this early line that you see so far?
Speaker 2: I can't in good conscience take these dealers here, Joe,
Speaker 2: like they've just burned me too many times. And I
Speaker 2: thought it was such a good spot for them coming
Speaker 2: out of the by against the Jaguars. I thought they
Speaker 2: would circle the wagons and have their act together, and
Speaker 2: that really wasn't the case. So are they going to
Speaker 2: write the ship in three days? I'm skeptical, But at
Speaker 2: the same time, I also worry that the encore for
Speaker 2: will Levis won't go as well as the debut. So
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I see any value here to
Speaker 2: either side. But I've already bet the under. I think
Speaker 2: we could see one of the lowest totals of the
Speaker 2: year in this game. It's thirty six and a half
Speaker 2: was the open. I think it's going to continue to
Speaker 2: go down, so I wanted to grab it at thirty
Speaker 2: six and a half. I think it goes down to
Speaker 2: thirty six, maybe thirty five and a half before kickoff
Speaker 2: on Thursday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the under is my early lean on this one,
Speaker 1: as well, Sam, maybe they can petition to wear the
Speaker 1: Oilers jerseys every week. Maybe that's the thing for Will Levis.
Speaker 1: If I was in that's what I'd be doing. What
Speaker 1: about you here in this one, Sam? Do you think
Speaker 1: the Unders a way to go? You think maybe just
Speaker 1: keep rolling with Bill Levis and Hopkins and the Titans
Speaker 1: on the money line.
Speaker 3: I think that if you're going to back the Titans,
Speaker 3: the money line is the way to go, because you're
Speaker 3: sort of betting into the variance of Will Levis, not
Speaker 3: you know, totally knowing what he is at this point.
Speaker 4: It was kind of weird. Vraybel came out.
Speaker 3: This morning and said that Levis was the starter, but
Speaker 3: then I think he said that he was going to
Speaker 3: be the starter if Tannehill couldn't go. So I don't
Speaker 3: know if that's him trying to lead on that Tannehill
Speaker 3: is maybe healthier for the trade deadline that's coming tomorrow.
Speaker 3: But I do think that the Titans, again in this
Speaker 3: spot with a thirty six point total, are an incredible
Speaker 3: teaser leg seizing him out to eight and a half.
Speaker 3: You know you've got the wrong teaser aspect of this.
Speaker 3: I don't see a situation where the Steelers are blowing
Speaker 3: out this Titans team.
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna go to Germany for a big
Speaker 1: game here. This was a fun one. The Cads City
Speaker 1: Chiefs coming off a very tough loss here, they are
Speaker 1: six and two. They'll take on the six and two
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. So fifteen and a half is the number
Speaker 1: for this one. Miami on the money line is plus
Speaker 1: one twenty five. But as one would imagine, the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs two and a half point favorites. Now, Sam
Speaker 1: in this game yesterday, obviously it was a little rough
Speaker 1: sledding there for Patrick Mahomes. He was ill, he was
Speaker 1: playing through it. He did not look quite like himself,
Speaker 1: I think, in this game. But no excuses. It was
Speaker 1: not a good loss for them on the road against Denver.
Speaker 1: Now you got to travel from Denver, you gotta go
Speaker 1: all the way to Germany. What kind of impact you
Speaker 1: think this has on Kansas City and on this line
Speaker 1: potentially as the week goes on.
Speaker 3: I think the line's about right. I made this Kansas
Speaker 3: City three and a half, and after thinking about it more,
Speaker 3: I think Kansas City being on the other side of
Speaker 3: three makes a lot more sense for me. The early
Speaker 3: lean I have is to bet the under. I mean
Speaker 3: this is these are two teams that are have some
Speaker 3: great offenses. But I've talked a lot about recently how
Speaker 3: well the Chiefs defense has been playing. The Dolphins defense
Speaker 3: is getting a little better. They got Jalen Ramsey back
Speaker 3: this past week. And again, Miami hasn't played a great schedule.
Speaker 3: They've played the Giants, the Panthers, Patriots, and the Eagles
Speaker 3: in the last four weeks so and they lost that
Speaker 3: game against the Eagles. But I do think both of
Speaker 3: these teams traveling abroad for the first time I remember
Speaker 3: the last time either of these teams were abroad, but
Speaker 3: doing so with Patrick Mahomes again coming off of the illness,
Speaker 3: that offense took a little bit of a step back
Speaker 3: for sure. So I leaned the under here. Fifteen and
Speaker 3: a half is a lot, and there's a chance we
Speaker 3: could see some fireworks. But I think that all of
Speaker 3: those factors contribute to this going under.
Speaker 1: Pat This one, to me is an individual game. I'm
Speaker 1: looking for individual props here because I'm kind of where
Speaker 1: Sam is. I think the Lions just feel right for
Speaker 1: this well. They're giving Miami enough respect and also Kansas
Speaker 1: City as well. But what are your thoughts on this one?
Speaker 1: Do you see any early value?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean not really on either side. And we've
Speaker 2: seen the Dolphins establish this pattern where they beat up
Speaker 2: on lesser teams and then wilt against the like super
Speaker 2: Bowl caliber teams, and I don't know if we'll get
Speaker 2: that same script. The Chiefs really did not play well
Speaker 2: against the Broncos. That's an understatement, I think, and so
Speaker 2: maybe it's a good bounce back spot for them against
Speaker 2: a team that has not handled quality well. But I
Speaker 2: don't really want to bet the Chiefs here at this number.
Speaker 2: I will be looking at the travel itineraries shoe to
Speaker 2: see if anyone makes the dubious decision to fly over
Speaker 2: on Friday, and if they do, I'm going to be
Speaker 2: betting against that team. But hopefully these teams are going
Speaker 2: to be a little smarter than that. We've seen that
Speaker 2: happen with the late rivals in the past usually get
Speaker 2: their lunch eaten in the overseas game. I'm a little
Speaker 2: on the opposite side of the total lough. I kind
Speaker 2: of think we're going to see fireworks in this game.
Speaker 2: Like when I saw this at fifty and a half,
Speaker 2: I My inclination was to think that was a little
Speaker 2: low of where I thought it was gonna be. I
Speaker 2: thought we'd see something closer to fifty two. So Sam
Speaker 2: could be right. The last four Chiefs games have played
Speaker 2: under but I do think we're gonna see points in
Speaker 2: this game. I kind of think it goes over.
Speaker 1: Sam.
Speaker 4: You had something to add here, Yeah, a couple things.
Speaker 3: The Chiefs had five turnovers this past week against the
Speaker 3: big Broncos. I don't think that holds up against the Dolphins.
Speaker 3: I could be wrong, but I do think the Dolphins
Speaker 3: are going out to Germany today Monday, and the Chiefs
Speaker 3: are going out there later this week, so it could
Speaker 3: be something for you to consider their pet.
Speaker 1: There you go. Look at that. Pat's already clicking on
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Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. Poor Kirk Cousins, you know, just when things
Speaker 1: were going better for the Vikings. It's tough, man, It's
Speaker 1: tough to be a Vikings fan. Thirty seven and a
Speaker 1: half is this number as they travel with Jaron Hall
Speaker 1: likely to play quarterback here against the Atlanta Falcons. Now,
Speaker 1: the Falcons secondary did not play well this past week
Speaker 1: against the Titans, and I don't want to talk too
Speaker 1: much about that, but look, we'll see what the health
Speaker 1: is of Desmond Ritter. Tarol Heineke did come in and
Speaker 1: play in that game. So these are two four and
Speaker 1: four teams. I'm not sure where we stand with them,
Speaker 1: but Atlanta is a four and a half point favorite
Speaker 1: in this game. The number for the Vikings plus one
Speaker 1: point eighty pat This one kind of scares me because
Speaker 1: I know it's like, Okay, we're losing our quarterback, we're
Speaker 1: losing all these things, and then we're going on the road.
Speaker 1: But you know, the Falcons have been kind of an
Speaker 1: enigma all year. I would not be shocked here looking
Speaker 1: at this money line and the plus one eighty if
Speaker 1: the Vikings just won this game. Outright, I'd like to
Speaker 1: hear a little positive news here for some practices about Hall.
Speaker 1: But what do you think here? What do you make
Speaker 1: of this one? Any early value?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we get our first possible battle of the
Speaker 2: backup quarterbacks on Thursday, and we get our second one
Speaker 2: in the early window with this one, because we don't
Speaker 2: know what the status is for Desmond Ridder, like there
Speaker 2: were reports that he was being checked for concussion, but
Speaker 2: we don't know whether it was play related or injury related,
Speaker 2: and whether we're going to see Ridder or Heineke getting
Speaker 2: the start this week. But the Falcons do get their
Speaker 2: second straight game against a non first round rookie quarterback
Speaker 2: making his NFL debut. Didn't go so well for them
Speaker 2: last week, with Will Levis torching that secondary as you mentioned,
Speaker 2: Joe and beating the Falcons twenty eight twenty three.
Speaker 3: So.
Speaker 2: I can't bet either side. I'm not willing to take
Speaker 2: the points or lay the points. But six of the
Speaker 2: Falcons eight games have gone under the total this year.
Speaker 2: Seven of the Vikings eight games have gone under the total.
Speaker 2: We've got at least one and maybe two backup quarterbacks
Speaker 2: playing in this game. Thirty eight seems pretty optimistic for
Speaker 2: that total, So I've already hit the under on this one,
Speaker 2: and I think this is another game we see go
Speaker 2: down in the total as the weekend goes along.
Speaker 1: So many backup quarterbacks, second certing quarterbacks, third string quarterbacks
Speaker 1: even that have made their appearances this year. Sam thirty
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Again Les Patt's point, it feels
Speaker 1: like another one where maybe the under is the early
Speaker 1: lock in here.
Speaker 3: What do you think it probably is? I mean, this
Speaker 3: is just a shame with what's happened at Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 3: I know that he's been the butt of jokes in
Speaker 3: the past, especially in a primetime games, but he was
Speaker 3: having a pretty good season this year and over the
Speaker 3: last couple of games had probably his one of the
Speaker 3: best games of his career in primetime last week. But
Speaker 3: I can't touch this game without knowing what the Vikings
Speaker 3: are going to do. I don't think Jared Hall is
Speaker 3: a feasible option at quarterback, and I know he's not
Speaker 3: a first round pick, but he's definitely not on the
Speaker 3: level of Will Levis, who got taken at the beginning
Speaker 3: of the second round. So I think there's an opportunity
Speaker 3: for the Vikings to go after a Colt McCoy, a
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz like some one of these veteran guys who
Speaker 3: I think can keep the offense at a higher floor
Speaker 3: than what Hall would bring. So I'm staying away from
Speaker 3: the game. I think it under is probably the best
Speaker 3: bet right now, but this is.
Speaker 4: It just it really sucks.
Speaker 1: I think the under is the safest one too. And
Speaker 1: I will say this, of all the games we've talked
Speaker 1: about so far, just sort of like the early one
Speaker 1: with Tennessee, this one to me even more so the
Speaker 1: way Ritter has struggled. If he comes back or not,
Speaker 1: we'll see what Heineke does of this offense if he
Speaker 1: gets more of an opportunity. But and a half, it
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like by the time we get to Sunday
Speaker 1: that number is gonna still be available. This feels like
Speaker 1: it's going to continue to go down. Seattle is gonna
Speaker 1: travel to Baltimore, Baltimore six and two handling their business,
Speaker 1: Seattle eking out a victory here in dramatic fashion. They
Speaker 1: are gonna be five and a half point underdogs heading
Speaker 1: to Baltimore this week. Forty three is the number plus
Speaker 1: two hundred on the Seattle side on the money line, Sam,
Speaker 1: your thoughts on this contest here? Does Baltimore really handle Seattle,
Speaker 1: because theoretically they should, but sometimes that's not always gone
Speaker 1: the way.
Speaker 4: I don't think so.
Speaker 3: I made this Baltimore by four and a half when
Speaker 3: I was first going through the games.
Speaker 4: I struggle with this one. This is gonna be a
Speaker 4: fantastic matchup.
Speaker 3: I think the Seattle defense has played a little bit
Speaker 3: better than what their actual actual personnel dictates. They haven't
Speaker 3: allowed a positive EPA per play since week four. Again, granted,
Speaker 3: the offense hasn't played that great either. They haven't had
Speaker 3: a positive EPA per play since then, either. But I
Speaker 3: do think that Gino Smith has really grown into some
Speaker 3: of the deep ball passing he's had. I think that's
Speaker 3: where you can attack this Ravens secondary. This is a
Speaker 3: lower total obviously not as low as as some of
Speaker 3: the games we've already talked about, but I think with
Speaker 3: that in consideration, I'm taking the points with the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Pat your thoughts on this one. Forty three is the
Speaker 1: number here. Sam likes the Seattle side in the five
Speaker 1: and a half. You think they can keep it close.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So the Seahawks are for one on one against
Speaker 2: the spread in their last six games. They are on
Speaker 2: an upward trajectory, but some are the Ravens. They're rolling.
Speaker 2: They've won three straight and they've won them all by
Speaker 2: at least a touchdown. Plus we have a West Coast
Speaker 2: team going out east for an early kickoff. I tend
Speaker 2: not to like betting the West Coast teams under those circumstances,
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I'm not really leaning strongly to
Speaker 2: either side, although I like the Ravens as a slightly
Speaker 2: better percentage play. Perhaps I'm more inclined to go with
Speaker 2: the under here. The last twelve Seahawks games, eight of
Speaker 2: them have played under, and for the Ravens, twelve of
Speaker 2: their last eighteen games have played under plus. Nine of
Speaker 2: the last ten Ravens home games have played under. Opponents
Speaker 2: just don't score a lot at M and T Banks Stadium,
Speaker 2: So I think I'm gonna bet the under here and
Speaker 2: layoff the side.
Speaker 1: Bears are coming off a Sunday night loss here to
Speaker 1: the Chargers. They are two and six, so we don't
Speaker 1: know if they can have justin fields for this game.
Speaker 1: Right now, the number is seven heading into New Orleans again,
Speaker 1: New Orleans seven point favorites, and this one Derek Carr's
Speaker 1: been airing the ball out lately, that's for sure. Forty
Speaker 1: one and a half is the number for this one.
Speaker 1: If you like the Bears in the upset, it's plus
Speaker 1: two forty five over on betting pros. So Pat, let's
Speaker 1: talk about this. Do you want to lock in this
Speaker 1: seven now in anticipation of fields not playing or do
Speaker 1: you want to potentially wait this one out and see
Speaker 1: if there's any change and then a field's return this week.
Speaker 2: I think I want to sit this one out, Joe.
Speaker 2: We have talked about the vexing unpredictability of the New
Speaker 2: Orleans Saints this year. They have been my bete noir
Speaker 2: as far as betting, my betting bet noir. Yeah, like
Speaker 2: I just and we've seen the Bears like they haven't
Speaker 2: been good all year, but the two wins they have
Speaker 2: been very convincing blowouts of the Commanders and Raiders. So
Speaker 2: the big wild card obviously the status of Justin Fields,
Speaker 2: and I'm disinclined to make a bet either way on
Speaker 2: whether he comes back or not. So I'm just gonna
Speaker 2: sit this one out and let someone else try to
Speaker 2: pick the Saints correctly because I just can't say them.
Speaker 1: Are you as vexed as pat is on this one?
Speaker 4: Yes, I am.
Speaker 3: I The Saints offense has actually looked pretty good. Obviously,
Speaker 3: had the sort of a stinker against the Jaguars on
Speaker 3: Thursday Night Football a couple of weeks ago, but there
Speaker 3: they have so many great weapons on offense, and I
Speaker 3: don't see how this Bears defense is able to stop that,
Speaker 3: even if Derek Carr, you know, goes back into his shell.
Speaker 3: So I think laying seven points against the or with
Speaker 3: the Saints, I guess it is tough. I think I'd
Speaker 3: rather again combine them with the Titans, like I mentioned
Speaker 3: earlier in a teaser leg.
Speaker 1: All right, so teasing in around there, Let's go to
Speaker 1: the next one here, Arizona and Cleveland. Cleveland really had
Speaker 1: a lot of opportunities to win that game in Seattle,
Speaker 1: and they just couldn't take advantage of those opportunities. They
Speaker 1: are now four and three. They are gonna head back
Speaker 1: home here with the Arizona Cardinals. Now I doubt we
Speaker 1: get Kyler Murray back in this when it seems to
Speaker 1: be like we're gonna wait another week for him. Cardinals
Speaker 1: are one and seven. The Cardinals always keep these you
Speaker 1: know games. They have a tendency to continue to compete,
Speaker 1: which is always a dangerous thing for some of these lines.
Speaker 1: The number is seven here Cleveland being the favorite at home.
Speaker 1: Thirty eight and a half is the total plus two
Speaker 1: to fifty for Arizona. Sam When you're taking a look
Speaker 1: here at this one, do you think Cleveland handles this
Speaker 1: one in the seven points very easily or do you
Speaker 1: think this could be a struggle for them.
Speaker 3: I think it could be a struggle. I mean, this
Speaker 3: offense still looks out of sorts. They have a really
Speaker 3: great game plan against the Seahawks this past week with
Speaker 3: the screen game they got working, but their defense is
Speaker 3: looking not like the historical defense we were expecting. Both
Speaker 3: Zadarias Smith and Alex Wright left the game this past week,
Speaker 3: as did corternerback Greg Newso the Arizona offense isn't getting
Speaker 3: much better, but I just don't trust the Cleveland offense
Speaker 3: to move the ball enough to win by more than
Speaker 3: seven points, even against the Cardinals defense. So I think again,
Speaker 3: with the lower total, I'm taking Arizona with the points pad.
Speaker 1: Do you trust the Cleveland defense though, to get a
Speaker 1: score in this game and maybe make this seven a
Speaker 1: little bit more comfortable than we realize?
Speaker 2: I think that could happen, And despite some of the injuries,
Speaker 2: I think I'm still inclined to bet on the Browns
Speaker 2: defense because of how deep that unit is and how
Speaker 2: many impact guys they have in that unit as game
Speaker 2: and effort the Cardinals have been giving us every week.
Speaker 2: They have lost five straight games and all of those
Speaker 2: losses have been by seven or more points, and on
Speaker 2: the road this year zero to four, and all of
Speaker 2: those losses had been by nine or more points. So
Speaker 2: I think I'm going to take the Browns at home here,
Speaker 2: even laying a touchdown or more.
Speaker 1: Battle of two three and four teams here. The Houston
Speaker 1: Texans at home two and a half point favorites against
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Also, three and four forty is
Speaker 1: the number for this one. Again, not a very inspiring
Speaker 1: total necessarily plus one twenty six for the Bucks on
Speaker 1: the money line. Now, the Bucks did hang close, So
Speaker 1: on Thursday Night Football last week, Bobby and I did
Speaker 1: nail that one on the nine and a half. They
Speaker 1: covered that bad boy. This one is a tighter margin here,
Speaker 1: two and a half. Pat When you're looking at this one,
Speaker 1: do you see any early value potentially with the Bucks
Speaker 1: in Houston or do you think Houston gets back home
Speaker 1: and gets back right after disappointing loss to the Panthers.
Speaker 2: I think I do see a little early value with
Speaker 2: the box show. And I know that the Texans toast
Speaker 2: stubbing against the Panthers upset some people, but some of
Speaker 2: us thought the Texans were maybe coming into that game
Speaker 2: a little overvalued in the betting markets, and some of
Speaker 2: us took the Panthers in the points. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: think Sam and I might have been on different sides
Speaker 2: of this one last week.
Speaker 1: And Erickson was on that Carolina Panthers side. He was
Speaker 1: talking about this on Friday, talking about the showing up there,
Speaker 1: and I understand, you know, team's coming off by you think, Okay,
Speaker 1: you know the Houston's played well, But Sam, when you're
Speaker 1: looking at this one too, is the right way to go.
Speaker 1: Just straight for the Tampa Bay money line and plus
Speaker 1: one twenty six here.
Speaker 3: If you want to bet back the Bucks, sure, I
Speaker 3: mean this is this one. I didn't really have a
Speaker 3: good leanod because again I think the Texans aren't as
Speaker 3: good as I thought they were.
Speaker 4: I didn't catch much of the much of this game.
Speaker 3: I need to go back and rewatch it just to
Speaker 3: see what happened in the Texans offense because they were
Speaker 3: in a perfect spot against the Panthers, and so I
Speaker 3: do think the Texans again should be able to have
Speaker 3: some success through the air. I do think the under
Speaker 3: on this game is in play just because both of
Speaker 3: these teams love to run a halfback dive on first
Speaker 3: and ten and it just sets them back right away.
Speaker 3: So I'm hoping that Texans win because I like this team.
Speaker 3: I love what Demiko Ryins has been doing. But from
Speaker 3: a side perspective, I'm not touching it right now.
Speaker 1: New England Patriots at home, coming off a game another
Speaker 1: loss to the Miami Dolphins. There again, they competed, they
Speaker 1: kept it interesting at least towards the end minus three.
Speaker 1: Though they are favorites at home against the Washington Commanders,
Speaker 1: who constantly play up and down to their competition. So
Speaker 1: another weird, dangerous spot. They're so competitive against the Eagles
Speaker 1: and another teams. You watch them play and you just
Speaker 1: trying to figure out, how do you not just wiping
Speaker 1: the floor with the Giants? I don't know. Forty is
Speaker 1: the number for this one plus one thirty for the
Speaker 1: upset on the Washington bunny line? Sam, what do you
Speaker 1: make out of this one?
Speaker 3: I think I'm going with Washington and probably the money line.
Speaker 3: At first glance, I didn't really see much value in this.
Speaker 3: I made the game exactly what it is right now.
Speaker 3: But looking a little bit deeper into it, the Patriots
Speaker 3: defensive weakness is through the air. They get a thirty
Speaker 3: percent pressure rate on defense, and obviously we know the
Speaker 3: biggest weakness for Washington is Sam Howell taking sacks. So
Speaker 3: I think with the way that offense is clicking, I'm
Speaker 3: enticed to take again Washington with a little bit of
Speaker 3: variance and hoping they come away with that victory.
Speaker 1: Pat do you see things the same way here as Sam?
Speaker 1: In this game against Washington and New England.
Speaker 2: I'm inclined to trust Sam, but I'm probably just gonna,
Speaker 2: you know, cheerlead for him, while I don't bet this
Speaker 2: game at all, because like, I can't trust the Commanders.
Speaker 2: You said it, Joe, Like, how how does this team
Speaker 2: play the Eagles so tough twice and then get completely
Speaker 2: stopped by the Chicago Bears. And meanwhile, we've got the
Speaker 2: Patriots who went one in four in October one and
Speaker 2: four against the spread in October, but the one win
Speaker 2: was against the Bills at home, So like, if they
Speaker 2: can beat the Bills at home, they can't handle business
Speaker 2: against the Washington Commanders. I just I can't trust either
Speaker 2: of these teams.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to about this one. Now. This one
Speaker 1: is very interesting coming up next because you have the
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers at two and five. This is kind
Speaker 1: of I don't want to be dramatic, but this is
Speaker 1: kind of their season here. I can go to two
Speaker 1: and six, this is done. It's over the Los Angeles Rams,
Speaker 1: another team that you know, we just try to keep
Speaker 1: trying to figure out. This is going to be their
Speaker 1: second consecutive road game for them as well. The Packers
Speaker 1: are still three and a half three point favorites in
Speaker 1: this one. The numbers thirty nine and a half plus
Speaker 1: one forty four of the Rams on the money line. Pat,
Speaker 1: I feel like the wrong team is favorite in this game.
Speaker 1: But I can't make a logical cojin argument as to
Speaker 1: why the Rams should be favored, except for the fact
Speaker 1: that if Matthew Stafford is healthy enough to play, that
Speaker 1: this should be a game that the Rams go out
Speaker 1: there and handle their business against frankly an offense in
Speaker 1: Green Bay that has just not worked. Let's just call
Speaker 1: it what it is. So the question is the Matthew
Speaker 1: Stafford health. That's the thing that's holding us up. So
Speaker 1: do we want to jump on this game now and
Speaker 1: bet that Stafford's gonna soldier through this injury or do
Speaker 1: you want to wait and get more information and maybe
Speaker 1: miss some value.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the fence here, Joe, because on Sunday
Speaker 2: night this game was Packers by one and a half.
Speaker 2: And I saw your point about taking the Rams getting
Speaker 2: points in Green Bay when their offense has been functioning
Speaker 2: in a much higher level than the Packers offense of late.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, if Brett Rippen is the
Speaker 2: starter for the Rams as a warm weather team coming
Speaker 2: into LAMBA on what should be a pretty chilly Sunday
Speaker 2: afternoon next week. Like, I think the Packers are actually
Speaker 2: of value at anything a field goal or less if
Speaker 2: it's ripping starting. So man, Like, yes, I want to
Speaker 2: bet something now to try to get a beat on
Speaker 2: this game before we know more about Stafford's injury. But like,
Speaker 2: I don't know which way to go with this one,
Speaker 2: because you know, would feel wrong about the Packers if
Speaker 2: it was Stafford playing. It would feel wrong to have
Speaker 2: the Rams if it's ripping going into Green Bay. So man,
Speaker 2: I'm probably just gonna bite the bullet and lay off
Speaker 2: this one.
Speaker 1: This is a tricky situation here, and I'm stuck between
Speaker 1: Instead of two ferns, it's two Packer fans, So cheeseheads.
Speaker 1: Come on, Sam, are you gonna put the final nail
Speaker 1: on the coffin for the Packers here with the Rams?
Speaker 1: Or are you gonna wait this one out?
Speaker 3: Oh, We've already put the nail in the coffin. I
Speaker 3: know this is a football podcast. I've got the Bucks
Speaker 3: shirt shirt on today.
Speaker 1: Oh, you've already transitioned to NBA. I'm wearing the Bengal
Speaker 1: shirt from my Bengals money line pick that paid off
Speaker 1: big time. Let's go. They said San Fran wouldn't lose
Speaker 1: three games in a row. Sam and I say, hold
Speaker 1: my brock party. I say, just wait.
Speaker 3: We're already firing up the mock draft simulator seeing how
Speaker 3: many picks it'll take straight up to the number one
Speaker 3: spot for Caleb Williams. But onto analysis of this game,
Speaker 3: Jordan Rodrik of The Athletic did report this morning that
Speaker 3: the Rams are evaluating a number of options with Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 3: They're going to test his test his thumb out and
Speaker 3: how he can grip the ball throughout the week. I
Speaker 3: think the chillier conditions in green Bay, combined with the
Speaker 3: fact that the Rams have a bye following this game,
Speaker 3: keeps Stafford out of this game. But I honestly still
Speaker 3: kind of like the Rams. I mean, they've been running
Speaker 3: the ball a ton the past several weeks. Their passwright
Speaker 3: over expectation is deep in the negatives, I mean to
Speaker 3: a Falcons esque level, and the green Bay deep rush
Speaker 3: defense had its best performance against Minnesota this past week.
Speaker 3: But I think the Rams are just going to hand
Speaker 3: the ball off to the combination of Daryl Henderson and
Speaker 3: Royce Freeman, who have played pretty okay in the stead
Speaker 3: of Kyron Williams. So I think this is I mean again,
Speaker 3: the coffin is in or the nails in the coffin
Speaker 3: for the Packers already. I think the Rams honestly have
Speaker 3: a chance to steal this one, even if Stafford is out.
Speaker 4: I do.
Speaker 1: I like the three already with the Rams. Just give
Speaker 1: me the three in the Rams right now and we'll
Speaker 1: see how it goes. And if Stafford ends up, you know,
Speaker 1: clearing through and they think you can give it a go,
Speaker 1: then double down with it and take the Rams on
Speaker 1: the money line. That's how I look at this one.
Speaker 1: Indianapolis going against Carolina. Carolina gets their first victory, Indy
Speaker 1: coming off another l here they are now three and five.
Speaker 1: They're gonna still be road favorites though minus two and
Speaker 1: a half of the Colts here at minus one fifteen
Speaker 1: forty five is the number for this one. Carolina. Can
Speaker 1: they do it too? In a row? Plus one point
Speaker 1: thirty says if they can, Sam Hoppin, what do you say.
Speaker 4: This one's tough?
Speaker 3: I mean the Colts's road favorites is kind of stinky
Speaker 3: to me. I think that that said, Shane Steichen has
Speaker 3: been such an upgrade at coaching for the Colts obviously,
Speaker 3: you know, I think Frank Reich last year got jobbed
Speaker 3: a little bit. But man, if they had stuff with
Speaker 3: stuck with Jeff Saturday, I don't know what this team
Speaker 3: would have looked like. But in any case, I struggled
Speaker 3: to have a take on the side here. All of
Speaker 3: the Colts games this year have been points fest. They
Speaker 3: play super fast, they play well enough to move the ball.
Speaker 3: I do think the market has caught up to that
Speaker 3: a little bit with the total where it's at, so
Speaker 3: I think it's a little bit too high for me
Speaker 3: to go over, even though again the Panthers in their
Speaker 3: win only scored fifteen points. So this is just a
Speaker 3: complete stay away from me.
Speaker 4: All right? Pat?
Speaker 1: Are you running the other direction from Panthers and Colts too, Joe?
Speaker 2: The Saints are the one team, the first team that
Speaker 2: I don't want to touch. That just terrify me, and
Speaker 2: the Colts are the other like the other team I
Speaker 2: can't get right on. We're on the eve of Halloween here, Joe,
Speaker 2: and I think my Halloween horror would be betting Saints
Speaker 2: Colts games every week, so I'm glad we're not getting
Speaker 2: that matchup again. I'm not going to bet either side
Speaker 2: on the Colts. I don't like them as a road favorite.
Speaker 2: But the Colts have become one of the most predictable
Speaker 2: over teams in the National Football League. They've gone over
Speaker 2: the total in four of their last five. The average
Speaker 2: point total in Colts games this year is fifty four
Speaker 2: point three points, and six of the Colts eight games
Speaker 2: this season have played over fifty points. So I'll ride
Speaker 2: that trend and take the over here, even though you
Speaker 2: know the Panthers might need a little help getting that
Speaker 2: point total up, but maybe the Colts can oblige and
Speaker 2: put up thirty.
Speaker 1: Or all Right, this one's definitely a must watch game.
Speaker 1: You're gonna like this one. The Eagles seven to one
Speaker 1: are going to host the Dallas Cowboys of five and two.
Speaker 1: The Cowboys looked great, phenomenal game for them. They were
Speaker 1: rocking and rolling, Dak Prescott throwing the ball over to
Speaker 1: play Ceedee Lamb crushed that five and a half receptions
Speaker 1: over we talked about on Friday. Bobby, by the way,
Speaker 1: was four out of five out of his picks on
Speaker 1: Friday to great job at a him. Forty six is
Speaker 1: the number for this one plus one thirty five for
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Upset. I'm gonna keep this one easy, Pat
Speaker 1: for me. Give me the Eagles in the three right now,
Speaker 1: because I know the Cowboys look great. Everyone's talking about
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are back and all this stuff I said
Speaker 1: from before the season. During the season, even when people
Speaker 1: were concerned, I still think the Eagles are the class
Speaker 1: of the NFC by a long shot. I don't want
Speaker 1: to hear anybody tell me differently, so be careful because
Speaker 1: if you tell me differently, we might have to have words.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but what do you think here about
Speaker 1: this when the Cowboys and Eagles, Because I just want
Speaker 1: the Eagles in the three and just walk away from
Speaker 1: this one. I'm confident the Eagles at home are going
Speaker 1: to handle their business.
Speaker 2: At first Blush. I like the Eagles in the under Joe.
Speaker 2: But here's what scares me about this game. It's starting
Speaker 2: to look like pass coverage is a real achilles heel
Speaker 2: for the Eagles, and we saw that yesterday with the
Speaker 2: Commanders and Sam Howell, well, I'm not even sure if
Speaker 2: he's a good quarterback, yet just picked the Eagles apart, Like,
Speaker 2: if their pass rush does no get home, these Eagle
Speaker 2: cornerbacks cannot stay with wide receivers, and like, that's a
Speaker 2: big problem with Ceedee Lamb coming to town off a
Speaker 2: twelve catch, two touchdown game. So man, like, I think
Speaker 2: I'm gonna stay away from this one. I just like
Speaker 2: I can't back the Eagles when I was so horrified
Speaker 2: by their pass defense yesterday.
Speaker 1: You make a great point about that, and that is
Speaker 1: a good logical point. My point is a little bit
Speaker 1: more on the emotional side, Sam, which is I don't
Speaker 1: think the Dallas Cowboys have the mental and emotional fortitude
Speaker 1: to go into Philadelphia and win a football game. I
Speaker 1: just don't think they're that team. They have not shown
Speaker 1: me they're that team. Just because you beat the Rams
Speaker 1: this week does not necessarily change my opinion of that.
Speaker 1: What say you?
Speaker 3: I disagree. I think the Cowboys are in a great
Speaker 3: spot here. Pat mentioned the Eagles pass defense. Over the
Speaker 3: last four weeks. They've allowed a ten point four percent
Speaker 3: explosive pass rate that is thirtieth in the league. Meanwhile,
Speaker 3: over that same stretch of games, the Cowboys offense is
Speaker 3: first having a ten point seven percent explosive pass rate
Speaker 3: the Eagles. Excuse me, the Cowboys defense is still getting
Speaker 3: a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Eagles offensive
Speaker 3: line has has struggled a little bit lately. They're allowing
Speaker 3: a thirty to nine percent pressu rate over the last
Speaker 3: four weeks. The Dallas passing offense just looks great. I mean,
Speaker 3: Dak is out there dropping some dimes that touchdown pass
Speaker 3: to Jake Ferguson just over the defender's head. He's been
Speaker 3: playing exceptionally well. The Cowboys are starting to pass the
Speaker 3: ball a little bit more. I think they understand that
Speaker 3: the rushing offense is just not what they might have
Speaker 3: expected it to be. So I think Dallas can go
Speaker 3: into Philly and take the upset or at least cover
Speaker 3: the three points.
Speaker 1: Now, after all of that, I think I want to
Speaker 1: tease this and I want to take the Eagles by
Speaker 1: even more. That's what I think. That's what I think.
Speaker 1: Enough see everyone bet that they do this all the time.
Speaker 1: You start to lot cooking the Cowboys. They're looking good again.
Speaker 1: There's such a public team, and I was gonna go
Speaker 1: run and bet the Cowboys. Now stay with the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Let's see on Monday. If I'm right or wrong, then
Speaker 1: the Boys can hammer me. If I'm wrong, we'll see
Speaker 1: what happens. The New York Giants two and six will
Speaker 1: take on the Las Vegas Raiders. Three point underdogs going
Speaker 1: into Las Vegas are the Giants thirty eight and a
Speaker 1: half is the number for this one. The Giants on
Speaker 1: the money line plus one forty possibly Daniel Jones coming
Speaker 1: back here in this one. Sam, I know some of
Speaker 1: these games are pretty ugly.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: We've got two more left after this, one of which
Speaker 1: is much more exciting. So do you want to just
Speaker 1: fast forward through Giants Vegas? Or does something that appeals
Speaker 1: to you.
Speaker 4: Pass? I'd be like the Giants. Out of twenty seven.
Speaker 3: Success rate on Sunday, like almost three quarters of the
Speaker 3: plays got them further away from scoring.
Speaker 4: It was just so so bad.
Speaker 3: I know there was the rain, Tyrod getting hurt. Daniel
Speaker 3: Jones is clear to return. It sounds like he's going
Speaker 3: to play in this game. But I still think the Raiders'
Speaker 3: offense is pretty solid and they'll be able to move
Speaker 3: the ball. So give them the Raiders, I guess give me.
Speaker 1: The over on Saquon Barkley's carry total whatever that is,
Speaker 1: what the rushing attempts are over. That's how you bet
Speaker 1: this game. Pat, you see anything else, you'll like this?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I mean laying a field goal or more with the Raiders,
Speaker 2: Like give me the points every time against Josh McDaniels
Speaker 2: and the Raiders, Like, especially with Daniel Jones coming back?
Speaker 2: Will this be the first time all year where they
Speaker 2: have Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley health?
Speaker 1: Hear?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 1: First little while?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Healthy, that's a different question. Healthy since Week one maybe
Speaker 1: or two?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess. I guess early in the season. So
Speaker 2: I'll take the Giants and the points here. Like, I know,
Speaker 2: they haven't given us much reason for optimism yet. But
Speaker 2: I don't like the Raiders. It's a big favorite.
Speaker 1: Come on, I'm not a big favorite. They are they
Speaker 1: are the standard favorite. They are the home here's three points. There,
Speaker 1: you go too big to be fair enough? All right? Well,
Speaker 1: how about the three points that the Cincinnati Bengals are
Speaker 1: getting at home against the Buffalo Bills. Forty eight and
Speaker 1: a half is the number on this one plus one
Speaker 1: thirty for the Buffalo Bills. You know where I'm gonna go.
Speaker 1: I'm representing who Day, Let's go. Let's go a little
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals action. I picked the Bengals last week. I
Speaker 1: canna keep rolling with them. I think the Bengals are
Speaker 1: favorite for a reason in this game. I think the
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills, you clearly can see they missed certain of
Speaker 1: those missing pieces on defense. Joe Burrow looked by far
Speaker 1: the healthiest he has been getting out of sacks running
Speaker 1: around in the pocket. I think the rest of the
Speaker 1: AFC better get real worried here because the Bengals are
Speaker 1: getting back into this thing. So pat do you think
Speaker 1: they handle the Buffalo Bills here at home?
Speaker 2: Yeah, this line's really interesting joke because the Bengals do
Speaker 2: look like the Bengals again, and the Bills haven't really able.
Speaker 2: They haven't been able to get decisive wins against bad teams.
Speaker 2: They're last three games one score games against the Buccaneers, Patriots,
Speaker 2: and Giants. They lost the Patriots game and came within
Speaker 2: a whisker of losing that game to the Giants. I
Speaker 2: think when we look at the power rankings this week,
Speaker 2: like when Massy Peabody updates their ratings, it's gonna say
Speaker 2: that the value is with the Bills. But that's taking
Speaker 2: into account the entire body of work, where the Bengals
Speaker 2: were so out of sorts early in the season and
Speaker 2: now they are just humming again, and they're basically back
Speaker 2: where they were the last couple of years as valid
Speaker 2: Super Bowl contenders. So I can't blame you. I'm leaning
Speaker 2: towards the Bengals here as well.
Speaker 1: Sam, Come on this plenty room on the train, Hop
Speaker 1: a board, let's go. We're going to Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: Look, this is gonna be some good, clean fun. We're
Speaker 3: gonna start our Sunday morning with a matchup between the
Speaker 3: two MVP favorite. It's gonna roll into the afternoon with
Speaker 3: Ravens at our Seahawks Ravens. Then we're gonna get a
Speaker 3: nice Mattine viewing with the Cowboys and Eagles, and then
Speaker 3: we're gonna wrap up our night with this Bill's Bengals.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's gonna be phenomenal. They have football.
Speaker 3: I'm on the Bengals though I took them at two
Speaker 3: and a half this morning. They were one and a
Speaker 3: half even earlier this morning, So getting a lot of
Speaker 3: steam here for the Bengals. But you mentioned it, Joe
Speaker 3: Burrow looks healthy. In weeks one through six, Joe Burrow
Speaker 3: took fifteen snaps from under center. In week eight alone,
Speaker 3: he took fourteen snaps from under center. His health is
Speaker 3: going to open up this offense so much more. Obviously,
Speaker 3: the Bills get some extra rest playing on Thursday Night
Speaker 3: Football the previous week, but they just don't look like
Speaker 3: the juggernaut that they used to be. Have had some issues.
Speaker 3: I think some of the decision making that Sean McDermott
Speaker 3: made in that game against Tampa Bay was very suspect
Speaker 3: and it kept the Buccaneers in that game to the
Speaker 3: point where if Chris Godwin turns around a little bit earlier,
Speaker 3: like they are losing that game and are you know,
Speaker 3: just even further behind the Dolphins. So I like the
Speaker 3: Bengals in this. I think the Bengals are just looking
Speaker 3: like they can make a real, real run here.
Speaker 1: All right, one more game Monday Night Football, because you know,
Speaker 1: the NFL loves to put these New York teams here
Speaker 1: on the standalone games. We've got to do it every week.
Speaker 1: It feels like I've got to have at least one
Speaker 1: of them. The Jets at four and three somehow won
Speaker 1: that football game. Don't ask me how I watched it.
Speaker 1: I watched the highlights twice. I still can't understand how
Speaker 1: that all happened. Four and three, they are two and
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs, though to the Chargers forty one
Speaker 1: and a half is the number plus one twenty five
Speaker 1: for the Jets side. Sam, We're giving the Jets a
Speaker 1: little too much credit here at this plus two and
Speaker 1: a half number here. I mean, look, I don't love
Speaker 1: the Chargers, and I never love the Chargers traveling across
Speaker 1: the country, and I never love the Chargers on primetime.
Speaker 1: And the more I'm saying these things out loud, the
Speaker 1: more I understand the line. But g whiz, I mean,
Speaker 1: should the Chargers go in there and just put up
Speaker 1: a bunch of points on the Jets at this point?
Speaker 4: They should?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think if the Chargers get out to
Speaker 3: an early lead, they should be able to salt this
Speaker 3: one away. The Jets lost more offensive linemen to injuries
Speaker 3: in Sunday's games. Center Connor McGovern and left guard West
Speaker 3: Schweitzer both got hurt. The Chargers pass runs rush hasn't
Speaker 3: been great this year, but the Jets are already allowing
Speaker 3: a pressure rate over forty percent. I think the Chargers
Speaker 3: defense run defense continues to be solid, so if they
Speaker 3: decide to shy away from Zach Wilson, that the Chargers
Speaker 3: rush defense will be able to hold them to feury yards.
Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean Justin Herbert is just stratosphere is
Speaker 3: better than Zach Wilson. I get the rest of the
Speaker 3: team is not as much up to stuff, and the
Speaker 3: Jets defense as a whole is pretty good, but I
Speaker 3: think Justin Herbert can can do some damage.
Speaker 1: Pat, well, Justin Herbert do damage? Or are we gonna
Speaker 1: somehow see the Jets sneak out another victory here? I'm
Speaker 1: at a loss with this one here with the Jets.
Speaker 2: That Jets defense is really really good. And you know,
Speaker 2: we know the Chargers tortured recent history. Heck, they're tortured
Speaker 2: long term history. I mean, it's just like really hard
Speaker 2: to back the Chargers when I saw that line against
Speaker 2: the Bears last week at eight and a half, and
Speaker 2: the Chargers give them credit, they took care of business,
Speaker 2: but they usually don't take care of business so easily.
Speaker 2: And meanwhile, you've got this Jets team that wants to
Speaker 2: play everyone close, whether it's a really good team or
Speaker 2: a bad team like the Giants. So man, I just
Speaker 2: like I'm not touching this game.
Speaker 4: I'm not touching.
Speaker 2: It's an interesting matchup, but I do not want to
Speaker 2: bet this game at all.
Speaker 1: This one feels like a live bet game. Or you
Speaker 1: get in there and you get a sense of what's
Speaker 1: going on in the first quarter and then you try
Speaker 1: to make an impulsive stand one way or another. That's
Speaker 1: what that's what this feels like to me. Especially it's
Speaker 1: fun because it's standalone, so it's a lot easier to
Speaker 1: do that because you've got no other games distracting you.
Speaker 1: So that's one that I'd be looking at. But again,
Speaker 1: as Sam pointed out, definitely you could start in the
Speaker 1: morning with your coffee and then and after dinner drink.
Speaker 1: By the time you get to Sunday night football and
Speaker 1: then maybe maybe Monday night you find something to do
Speaker 1: with the kids. I don't know, instead of having to
Speaker 1: watch the Jets. We'll see. But again, we want to
Speaker 1: hear from you. Drop your comments below and one of
Speaker 1: them just might win a one year premium upgrade to
Speaker 1: betting Pros. To make sure you drop those comments, tell
Speaker 1: us what you're in on for Week nine in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel for
Speaker 1: Betting Pros and click that bell for notification. Still it
Speaker 1: goes ding. That'll do it for us, but the story
Speaker 1: of the game goes on for Sam Hoppin and Pat Fitzmorris.
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Speaker 5: Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. Follow
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