WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 9 NFL Game (Ep. 374) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:03.160 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:05.800 your bets. It is me Joey P joe P Zapia, 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:07.680 and it's time to look ahead for the games in 0:00:07.760 --> 0:00:10.560 week and nine in the NFL. Some really good value 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:15.120 last week early on, we nailed the Cincinnati Bengals. We 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:18.040 also nailed the under on the Jets Giants, which wasn't 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:21.079 too hard, but still we nailed that one anyway, and 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:23.040 a few other gems. A few things did not go 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:25.560 our way, but that's okay. That's the nature of the Beast. 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:28.080 We're always going to be here making sure we celebrate 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:31.080 the w's and well take responsibility for the ls. That's 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:33.120 also a big part of this and to help us 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:35.680 get through week nine and see if there's some early 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.360 value this week, Pat fitz Morris and Sam Hoppen joined 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.600 me as always here on the program. Gentlemen, let's jump 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:44.320 right into it. Before we get to some of the 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:46.680 pieces this week that we want to take some early 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:48.720 looks on, I want to remind everybody we've got a 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:52.159 new giveaway for you, a one year subscription to our 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:55.760 premium Betting Pros for free. You can win this. All 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.760 you have to do is drop a comment below, subscribe 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:00.520 to the Betting Pros YouTube check and all. That's it. 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.720 That's all you gotta do and click those notifications so 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:04.600 you know if you are the big winner of the 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:07.800 one year free premium upgrade to our Betting Pros product, 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:11.520 don't forget with BP bets smarter, not harder. So let's 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:13.679 do that. Let's bet smart here, and let's start with 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:17.319 Thursday night football, always a fun place to start. I 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:20.319 guess we're gonna get Mitchell Trubisky for this game. I 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:22.759 don't know, it's early, so we'll not sure what we're 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.360 gonna figure out here. But Will Levis we are going 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.600 to get again in Week nine in the NFL. Will 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:30.640 Levis somehow was the cheap coat unlocking DeAndre Hopkins. Who'd 0:01:30.640 --> 0:01:33.680 have thought the number for this game, gentlemen, is thirty six. 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:37.760 Right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers are three point favorites at 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:41.160 home against Tennessee. If you like Tennessee for the upset 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:44.520 plus one thirty that's available as well. Pat let's take 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:47.600 a look at this game here. I know Levis exceeded 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:51.080 all expectations the Pittsburgh Steelers. The injury to Kenny Pickett 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.320 really kind of ruined that opportunity for them to win 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:55.120 at home against Jacksonville. So what do you make out 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:56.720 of this early line that you see so far? 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:00.960 I can't in good conscience take these dealers here, Joe, 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:02.760 like they've just burned me too many times. And I 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:05.000 thought it was such a good spot for them coming 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:07.480 out of the by against the Jaguars. I thought they 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:10.160 would circle the wagons and have their act together, and 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:13.480 that really wasn't the case. So are they going to 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:17.360 write the ship in three days? I'm skeptical, But at 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:20.320 the same time, I also worry that the encore for 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:24.480 will Levis won't go as well as the debut. So 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:27.040 I'm not sure if I see any value here to 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:30.320 either side. But I've already bet the under. I think 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.519 we could see one of the lowest totals of the 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.000 year in this game. It's thirty six and a half 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:37.560 was the open. I think it's going to continue to 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:39.160 go down, so I wanted to grab it at thirty 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:42.040 six and a half. I think it goes down to 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:46.360 thirty six, maybe thirty five and a half before kickoff 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:47.000 on Thursday. 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:49.839 Yeah, the under is my early lean on this one, 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.480 as well, Sam, maybe they can petition to wear the 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:56.040 Oilers jerseys every week. Maybe that's the thing for Will Levis. 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:58.280 If I was in that's what I'd be doing. What 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:00.359 about you here in this one, Sam? Do you think 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:02.320 the Unders a way to go? You think maybe just 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:04.800 keep rolling with Bill Levis and Hopkins and the Titans 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:05.640 on the money line. 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:08.440 I think that if you're going to back the Titans, 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:11.120 the money line is the way to go, because you're 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.680 sort of betting into the variance of Will Levis, not 0:03:15.000 --> 0:03:17.519 you know, totally knowing what he is at this point. 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.120 It was kind of weird. Vraybel came out. 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:23.280 This morning and said that Levis was the starter, but 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:25.679 then I think he said that he was going to 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:28.799 be the starter if Tannehill couldn't go. So I don't 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.480 know if that's him trying to lead on that Tannehill 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:35.160 is maybe healthier for the trade deadline that's coming tomorrow. 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:39.960 But I do think that the Titans, again in this 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.360 spot with a thirty six point total, are an incredible 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:46.120 teaser leg seizing him out to eight and a half. 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:48.560 You know you've got the wrong teaser aspect of this. 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:52.920 I don't see a situation where the Steelers are blowing 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:56.000 out this Titans team. 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:58.280 All right, we're gonna go to Germany for a big 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:00.240 game here. This was a fun one. The Cads City 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:03.200 Chiefs coming off a very tough loss here, they are 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:04.720 six and two. They'll take on the six and two 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:07.119 Miami Dolphins. So fifteen and a half is the number 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:08.920 for this one. Miami on the money line is plus 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:12.000 one twenty five. But as one would imagine, the Kansas 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:14.360 City Chiefs two and a half point favorites. Now, Sam 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:18.520 in this game yesterday, obviously it was a little rough 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:21.280 sledding there for Patrick Mahomes. He was ill, he was 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.719 playing through it. He did not look quite like himself, 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:25.760 I think, in this game. But no excuses. It was 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:27.640 not a good loss for them on the road against Denver. 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:30.560 Now you got to travel from Denver, you gotta go 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:32.760 all the way to Germany. What kind of impact you 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:35.640 think this has on Kansas City and on this line 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:36.839 potentially as the week goes on. 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:41.640 I think the line's about right. I made this Kansas 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:43.880 City three and a half, and after thinking about it more, 0:04:44.000 --> 0:04:47.080 I think Kansas City being on the other side of 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:50.320 three makes a lot more sense for me. The early 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:52.440 lean I have is to bet the under. I mean 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:55.520 this is these are two teams that are have some 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:59.159 great offenses. But I've talked a lot about recently how 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:02.279 well the Chiefs defense has been playing. The Dolphins defense 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:04.440 is getting a little better. They got Jalen Ramsey back 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:10.480 this past week. And again, Miami hasn't played a great schedule. 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:14.359 They've played the Giants, the Panthers, Patriots, and the Eagles 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:17.359 in the last four weeks so and they lost that 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:21.000 game against the Eagles. But I do think both of 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:25.520 these teams traveling abroad for the first time I remember 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.240 the last time either of these teams were abroad, but 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:32.320 doing so with Patrick Mahomes again coming off of the illness, 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:35.719 that offense took a little bit of a step back 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:39.280 for sure. So I leaned the under here. Fifteen and 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:41.800 a half is a lot, and there's a chance we 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:46.599 could see some fireworks. But I think that all of 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:48.800 those factors contribute to this going under. 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:51.880 Pat This one, to me is an individual game. I'm 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:54.440 looking for individual props here because I'm kind of where 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.320 Sam is. I think the Lions just feel right for 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.080 this well. They're giving Miami enough respect and also Kansas 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.480 City as well. But what are your thoughts on this one? 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:02.960 Do you see any early value? 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:07.240 Yeah, I mean not really on either side. And we've 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:10.599 seen the Dolphins establish this pattern where they beat up 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.640 on lesser teams and then wilt against the like super 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:17.160 Bowl caliber teams, and I don't know if we'll get 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:21.920 that same script. The Chiefs really did not play well 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.599 against the Broncos. That's an understatement, I think, and so 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:26.719 maybe it's a good bounce back spot for them against 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:30.120 a team that has not handled quality well. But I 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:32.920 don't really want to bet the Chiefs here at this number. 0:06:33.800 --> 0:06:36.400 I will be looking at the travel itineraries shoe to 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.520 see if anyone makes the dubious decision to fly over 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:41.120 on Friday, and if they do, I'm going to be 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:43.760 betting against that team. But hopefully these teams are going 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:46.039 to be a little smarter than that. We've seen that 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:50.640 happen with the late rivals in the past usually get 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:54.920 their lunch eaten in the overseas game. I'm a little 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:57.200 on the opposite side of the total lough. I kind 0:06:57.200 --> 0:06:59.000 of think we're going to see fireworks in this game. 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:01.119 Like when I saw this at fifty and a half, 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:04.520 I My inclination was to think that was a little 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:06.560 low of where I thought it was gonna be. I 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:09.920 thought we'd see something closer to fifty two. So Sam 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.080 could be right. The last four Chiefs games have played 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:14.640 under but I do think we're gonna see points in 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:16.480 this game. I kind of think it goes over. 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:16.800 Sam. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.280 You had something to add here, Yeah, a couple things. 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.520 The Chiefs had five turnovers this past week against the 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:26.280 big Broncos. I don't think that holds up against the Dolphins. 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:29.520 I could be wrong, but I do think the Dolphins 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:33.440 are going out to Germany today Monday, and the Chiefs 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.880 are going out there later this week, so it could 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:39.280 be something for you to consider their pet. 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.960 There you go. Look at that. Pat's already clicking on 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:44.160 the Betting Pros app right now. I could feel it going. 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:46.280 Don't forget to make all your picks count too. Join 0:07:46.320 --> 0:07:49.360 our NFL contest bettingpros dot Com slash NFL Contest. It's free, 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:51.320 it's fun. You don't even have to make wagers. You 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:53.120 just got to make picks. Just make five a week, 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:55.080 one hundred on the season, and the winner is a 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:57.720 Jackson Smith and jigbu Jersey We're also giving away weekly 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:02.400 prizes monthly prizes BP the Upgrades FP Upgrades. We're also 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:05.679 giving away gift cards to our Fantasy pros and Betting 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:08.120 pro shops. So have some fun, make some picks, compete 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:11.760 against us at bettingpros dot com, slash NFL Contest, or 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:13.880 just click on the community tab on your VP app 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:17.440 and join the NFL Contest there as well. Next one here, 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:21.040 Minnesota Vikings. Poor Kirk Cousins, you know, just when things 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.680 were going better for the Vikings. It's tough, man, It's 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:25.520 tough to be a Vikings fan. Thirty seven and a 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.640 half is this number as they travel with Jaron Hall 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:30.600 likely to play quarterback here against the Atlanta Falcons. Now, 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:34.240 the Falcons secondary did not play well this past week 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:35.960 against the Titans, and I don't want to talk too 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:40.000 much about that, but look, we'll see what the health 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:42.280 is of Desmond Ritter. Tarol Heineke did come in and 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:44.280 play in that game. So these are two four and 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:46.480 four teams. I'm not sure where we stand with them, 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.080 but Atlanta is a four and a half point favorite 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:52.000 in this game. The number for the Vikings plus one 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.680 point eighty pat This one kind of scares me because 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:57.959 I know it's like, Okay, we're losing our quarterback, we're 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:00.720 losing all these things, and then we're going on the road. 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:02.160 But you know, the Falcons have been kind of an 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:05.439 enigma all year. I would not be shocked here looking 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:07.240 at this money line and the plus one eighty if 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:09.280 the Vikings just won this game. Outright, I'd like to 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.680 hear a little positive news here for some practices about Hall. 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:13.959 But what do you think here? What do you make 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:15.560 of this one? Any early value? 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:18.760 Yeah, so we get our first possible battle of the 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:22.160 backup quarterbacks on Thursday, and we get our second one 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.280 in the early window with this one, because we don't 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:26.880 know what the status is for Desmond Ridder, like there 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.800 were reports that he was being checked for concussion, but 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:35.240 we don't know whether it was play related or injury related, 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:38.160 and whether we're going to see Ridder or Heineke getting 0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:41.240 the start this week. But the Falcons do get their 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:45.760 second straight game against a non first round rookie quarterback 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:48.600 making his NFL debut. Didn't go so well for them 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:52.840 last week, with Will Levis torching that secondary as you mentioned, 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:55.679 Joe and beating the Falcons twenty eight twenty three. 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:56.439 So. 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:02.160 I can't bet either side. I'm not willing to take 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:05.920 the points or lay the points. But six of the 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.600 Falcons eight games have gone under the total this year. 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.680 Seven of the Vikings eight games have gone under the total. 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:14.720 We've got at least one and maybe two backup quarterbacks 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.600 playing in this game. Thirty eight seems pretty optimistic for 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.280 that total, So I've already hit the under on this one, 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:22.120 and I think this is another game we see go 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:25.840 down in the total as the weekend goes along. 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:30.040 So many backup quarterbacks, second certing quarterbacks, third string quarterbacks 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:33.680 even that have made their appearances this year. Sam thirty 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.360 seven and a half. Again Les Patt's point, it feels 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:39.000 like another one where maybe the under is the early 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:39.600 lock in here. 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:43.080 What do you think it probably is? I mean, this 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:46.199 is just a shame with what's happened at Kirk Cousins. 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:49.440 I know that he's been the butt of jokes in 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:51.600 the past, especially in a primetime games, but he was 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.480 having a pretty good season this year and over the 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.360 last couple of games had probably his one of the 0:10:57.400 --> 0:11:00.280 best games of his career in primetime last week. But 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:04.680 I can't touch this game without knowing what the Vikings 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:06.760 are going to do. I don't think Jared Hall is 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:11.120 a feasible option at quarterback, and I know he's not 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:13.559 a first round pick, but he's definitely not on the 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:17.280 level of Will Levis, who got taken at the beginning 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:21.720 of the second round. So I think there's an opportunity 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:25.800 for the Vikings to go after a Colt McCoy, a 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:28.600 Carson Wentz like some one of these veteran guys who 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:33.480 I think can keep the offense at a higher floor 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:36.920 than what Hall would bring. So I'm staying away from 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:39.240 the game. I think it under is probably the best 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:41.760 bet right now, but this is. 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:44.719 It just it really sucks. 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:47.000 I think the under is the safest one too. And 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:49.280 I will say this, of all the games we've talked 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.240 about so far, just sort of like the early one 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.319 with Tennessee, this one to me even more so the 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.360 way Ritter has struggled. If he comes back or not, 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:58.120 we'll see what Heineke does of this offense if he 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.480 gets more of an opportunity. But and a half, it 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:01.959 doesn't feel like by the time we get to Sunday 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:03.839 that number is gonna still be available. This feels like 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:06.400 it's going to continue to go down. Seattle is gonna 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:09.200 travel to Baltimore, Baltimore six and two handling their business, 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:13.079 Seattle eking out a victory here in dramatic fashion. They 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:15.120 are gonna be five and a half point underdogs heading 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.200 to Baltimore this week. Forty three is the number plus 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.800 two hundred on the Seattle side on the money line, Sam, 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:25.000 your thoughts on this contest here? Does Baltimore really handle Seattle, 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:28.160 because theoretically they should, but sometimes that's not always gone 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:28.520 the way. 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:30.040 I don't think so. 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:33.160 I made this Baltimore by four and a half when 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:35.000 I was first going through the games. 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:39.160 I struggle with this one. This is gonna be a 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:40.160 fantastic matchup. 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.400 I think the Seattle defense has played a little bit 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:47.400 better than what their actual actual personnel dictates. They haven't 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:52.280 allowed a positive EPA per play since week four. Again, granted, 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:56.360 the offense hasn't played that great either. They haven't had 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:59.840 a positive EPA per play since then, either. But I 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:04.320 do think that Gino Smith has really grown into some 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.360 of the deep ball passing he's had. I think that's 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:10.560 where you can attack this Ravens secondary. This is a 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:12.800 lower total obviously not as low as as some of 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:16.080 the games we've already talked about, but I think with 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:21.479 that in consideration, I'm taking the points with the Seahawks. 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:24.880 Pat your thoughts on this one. Forty three is the 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:28.000 number here. Sam likes the Seattle side in the five 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:29.360 and a half. You think they can keep it close. 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.439 Yeah, So the Seahawks are for one on one against 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:35.400 the spread in their last six games. They are on 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.000 an upward trajectory, but some are the Ravens. They're rolling. 0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:40.319 They've won three straight and they've won them all by 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:43.400 at least a touchdown. Plus we have a West Coast 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.760 team going out east for an early kickoff. I tend 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.840 not to like betting the West Coast teams under those circumstances, 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.199 So I don't know. I'm not really leaning strongly to 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.360 either side, although I like the Ravens as a slightly 0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:00.400 better percentage play. Perhaps I'm more inclined to go with 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:05.360 the under here. The last twelve Seahawks games, eight of 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.960 them have played under, and for the Ravens, twelve of 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:11.720 their last eighteen games have played under plus. Nine of 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.319 the last ten Ravens home games have played under. Opponents 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.880 just don't score a lot at M and T Banks Stadium, 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:19.680 So I think I'm gonna bet the under here and 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:21.400 layoff the side. 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:24.160 Bears are coming off a Sunday night loss here to 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:26.360 the Chargers. They are two and six, so we don't 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:27.880 know if they can have justin fields for this game. 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.960 Right now, the number is seven heading into New Orleans again, 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:34.640 New Orleans seven point favorites, and this one Derek Carr's 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:36.920 been airing the ball out lately, that's for sure. Forty 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:38.120 one and a half is the number for this one. 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:39.720 If you like the Bears in the upset, it's plus 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.440 two forty five over on betting pros. So Pat, let's 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:44.240 talk about this. Do you want to lock in this 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:47.560 seven now in anticipation of fields not playing or do 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:51.280 you want to potentially wait this one out and see 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.120 if there's any change and then a field's return this week. 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:56.080 I think I want to sit this one out, Joe. 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.000 We have talked about the vexing unpredictability of the New 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.760 Orleans Saints this year. They have been my bete noir 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:07.160 as far as betting, my betting bet noir. Yeah, like 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:09.840 I just and we've seen the Bears like they haven't 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.200 been good all year, but the two wins they have 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:15.680 been very convincing blowouts of the Commanders and Raiders. So 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:20.200 the big wild card obviously the status of Justin Fields, 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:23.800 and I'm disinclined to make a bet either way on 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.440 whether he comes back or not. So I'm just gonna 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:29.520 sit this one out and let someone else try to 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:31.680 pick the Saints correctly because I just can't say them. 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:34.880 Are you as vexed as pat is on this one? 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:37.920 Yes, I am. 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:44.280 I The Saints offense has actually looked pretty good. Obviously, 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:47.600 had the sort of a stinker against the Jaguars on 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.560 Thursday Night Football a couple of weeks ago, but there 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.560 they have so many great weapons on offense, and I 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.120 don't see how this Bears defense is able to stop that, 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:02.280 even if Derek Carr, you know, goes back into his shell. 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:07.920 So I think laying seven points against the or with 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:10.360 the Saints, I guess it is tough. I think I'd 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:14.440 rather again combine them with the Titans, like I mentioned 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.040 earlier in a teaser leg. 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.040 All right, so teasing in around there, Let's go to 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.760 the next one here, Arizona and Cleveland. Cleveland really had 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:24.520 a lot of opportunities to win that game in Seattle, 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:27.120 and they just couldn't take advantage of those opportunities. They 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:28.880 are now four and three. They are gonna head back 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:30.880 home here with the Arizona Cardinals. Now I doubt we 0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:32.480 get Kyler Murray back in this when it seems to 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:34.920 be like we're gonna wait another week for him. Cardinals 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.000 are one and seven. The Cardinals always keep these you 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:39.320 know games. They have a tendency to continue to compete, 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:41.280 which is always a dangerous thing for some of these lines. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:44.760 The number is seven here Cleveland being the favorite at home. 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:46.520 Thirty eight and a half is the total plus two 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:48.680 to fifty for Arizona. Sam When you're taking a look 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:50.960 here at this one, do you think Cleveland handles this 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:53.760 one in the seven points very easily or do you 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:55.120 think this could be a struggle for them. 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:57.040 I think it could be a struggle. I mean, this 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:00.400 offense still looks out of sorts. They have a really 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.920 great game plan against the Seahawks this past week with 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:07.439 the screen game they got working, but their defense is 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:12.440 looking not like the historical defense we were expecting. Both 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:16.760 Zadarias Smith and Alex Wright left the game this past week, 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:21.600 as did corternerback Greg Newso the Arizona offense isn't getting 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:26.200 much better, but I just don't trust the Cleveland offense 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:30.480 to move the ball enough to win by more than 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.560 seven points, even against the Cardinals defense. So I think again, 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:40.520 with the lower total, I'm taking Arizona with the points pad. 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:42.879 Do you trust the Cleveland defense though, to get a 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:44.639 score in this game and maybe make this seven a 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:46.359 little bit more comfortable than we realize? 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.520 I think that could happen, And despite some of the injuries, 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:52.200 I think I'm still inclined to bet on the Browns 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.560 defense because of how deep that unit is and how 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:59.400 many impact guys they have in that unit as game 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.359 and effort the Cardinals have been giving us every week. 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:04.680 They have lost five straight games and all of those 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:06.919 losses have been by seven or more points, and on 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.119 the road this year zero to four, and all of 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:13.040 those losses had been by nine or more points. So 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:15.440 I think I'm going to take the Browns at home here, 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.880 even laying a touchdown or more. 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:20.960 Battle of two three and four teams here. The Houston 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:23.000 Texans at home two and a half point favorites against 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:25.639 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Also, three and four forty is 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.879 the number for this one. Again, not a very inspiring 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:31.879 total necessarily plus one twenty six for the Bucks on 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.199 the money line. Now, the Bucks did hang close, So 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:37.199 on Thursday Night Football last week, Bobby and I did 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:38.960 nail that one on the nine and a half. They 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:42.239 covered that bad boy. This one is a tighter margin here, 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:44.359 two and a half. Pat When you're looking at this one, 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:46.240 do you see any early value potentially with the Bucks 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:48.680 in Houston or do you think Houston gets back home 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.080 and gets back right after disappointing loss to the Panthers. 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:53.119 I think I do see a little early value with 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:57.480 the box show. And I know that the Texans toast 0:18:57.480 --> 0:18:59.840 stubbing against the Panthers upset some people, but some of 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:02.520 us thought the Texans were maybe coming into that game 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:05.720 a little overvalued in the betting markets, and some of 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:09.399 us took the Panthers in the points. So yeah, I 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.120 think Sam and I might have been on different sides 0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:12.280 of this one last week. 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:15.000 And Erickson was on that Carolina Panthers side. He was 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:18.280