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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action, all right. Here we go throwing.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash Toto.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabary.

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Speaker 3: You want to pall.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is up? Everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm

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Speaker 3: your host, Chris Raybund. It's NFL Week sixteen. We have

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Speaker 3: anytime touchdowns for you for every game on the Saturday

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Speaker 3: Sunday and Primetime Sunday Night Monday Night football slates. Momentarily,

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Speaker 3: I will be joined by Sean Kerner and Jill Gallant,

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Speaker 3: and we're gonna run through each game and give our

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Speaker 3: touchdown bets. But first, if you want to tell some

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Speaker 3: of these bets, just look for the quick slip link

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Speaker 3: in the podcast and video description or go to Action

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Speaker 3: network dot com slash bet. Now, before we get into

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Speaker 3: the touchdowns, I'll toss it over to myself for a

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Speaker 3: word from our sponsor. The Action Network podcast has teamed

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Speaker 3: bucks to get two hundred back in bonus bets. If

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Speaker 3: your bet wins, the crown is yours. All right, Fellas,

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Speaker 3: we hit on a few of these last week. Javonte Williams,

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Speaker 3: Dallas got her Drake may Ady, Mitchell, Juwan Jennings, Gunner Helm.

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Speaker 3: So those are some nice hits there, got sat football

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Speaker 3: at that time of year, Kerner. Eagles at Commanders, This

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Speaker 3: is a luck rankings game. The Commanders, I know, are

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Speaker 3: the unlucky side in this one. Who are you looking

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Speaker 3: at in Eagles Commanders on Saturday.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm gonna do something crazy here. And not

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Speaker 4: only am I not taking somebody that's like ten to

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Speaker 4: one or higher, I'm actually taking somebody that's minus odds

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Speaker 4: with Saquon Barkley at minus one twenty.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, you know he's having a down year.

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Speaker 4: But as I wrote up in my tears piece, you know,

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Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago, he has a really good

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Speaker 4: schedule here to close out the season. And now he

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Speaker 4: has you know, a touchdown in back to back games.

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Speaker 4: One was on a toush push play where they kind

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Speaker 4: of ran a trick play where they pitched it to

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Speaker 4: him and he ran for you know, fifty two yard touchdown,

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Speaker 4: and then last week they gave him a rush attempt

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Speaker 4: on the two yard line. So he's starting to see

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Speaker 4: touchdowns on plays that he would normally be phased out

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Speaker 4: of on the Eagles. So I think he's try up here,

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Speaker 4: and this is a good matchup against the Commanders, despite

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Speaker 4: you know, the Commanders being a luck rankings play. You know,

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Speaker 4: I'm I'm projecting Barkley closer like minus one thirty five here,

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna just take the easy route here and

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Speaker 4: take him at minus one twenty. Now on the other side,

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Speaker 4: I am going to take an eight to one play here,

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Speaker 4: more of a long shot. I'm going to go with

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Speaker 4: my guy Ben Sennett here. This is just a brutal

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Speaker 4: matchup for the Commanders. I mean, it's gonna be hard

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Speaker 4: pressed for them to put up many points here, but

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Speaker 4: that's that's already being factored in in this market. So

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Speaker 4: this is just about on talent on my end, because

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Speaker 4: he was a you know, second round pick last year.

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Speaker 4: He's been stuck behind zach Ertz. But with Ertz out,

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Speaker 4: you know, this is time for him to step up,

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Speaker 4: potentially similar to what we saw with you know, Dallas

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Speaker 4: Godder and Trey McBride in the past, you know, having

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Speaker 4: to back up zach Ertz. So John Bates last week

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Speaker 4: did operate as a lead tight end, but Sennate still

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Speaker 4: had you know, a pretty solid forty percent routes around rate.

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Speaker 4: And I think over these last few weeks it's really

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Speaker 4: you know, evaluation time for them. So I wouldn't be

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Speaker 4: shocked if he sees a bit more playing time here.

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Speaker 4: And I do think he still has a ton of upside,

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Speaker 4: so I like sprinkling on him here at plus eight hundred.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Senate and Koson Yankov split the zach Ertz row,

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Speaker 3: but it was like Senate seventy five twenty five and

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Speaker 3: Yankov hasn't practiced I.

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Speaker 1: Believe, this week, so he was just ruled out. Yeah, Okay, okay,

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Speaker 1: minutes ago.

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Speaker 3: Yeah oh wow, okay, yeah, so so Sid I could

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Speaker 3: get the full zach Ertz compliment of snaps there. You

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Speaker 3: know that, you know, eighty percent route rate, So I

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Speaker 3: like that one. Next up, Jill Saturday Football Packers Bears

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Speaker 3: divisional matchup, had some Bears receivers just ruled out. Looks

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Speaker 3: like Burden is gonna miss this one. And I mean,

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Speaker 3: the Packer's always got guys on the injury report, so

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Speaker 3: won't even mention those.

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Speaker 1: But who who we look it at in Packers Bears.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, this is a bit of the landmine game from

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Speaker 6: it injury standpoint, but could be some opportunity given the

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Speaker 6: fact that just some uncertainty as well. But on the

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Speaker 6: Packer's side, I'll start with don Tavian Wicks. He's around

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Speaker 6: plus four to twenty five. Like he said, there's just

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Speaker 6: a lot of injuries right now, and maybe even cause

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Speaker 6: for reinjury. I find a lot of the time with

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Speaker 6: some of these guys like Christian Watson, like he did

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Speaker 6: practice this week as of Thursday night, but you know

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Speaker 6: he he might still be a little bit hurt. Jayden

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Speaker 6: Reid only practiced once this week. Josh Jacobs didn't practice

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Speaker 6: at all. So I just think if Watson is out

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Speaker 6: or limited and Matthew Golden still hasn't really picked up

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Speaker 6: his role in this offense, Don Wicks is kind of

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Speaker 6: who we want here. The Bears plays still a lot

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Speaker 6: of man coverage. Wix's historically just been much better versus

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Speaker 6: man defense. For example, he scored both of his touchdowns

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Speaker 6: this season against man coverage when they played the Lions

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Speaker 6: last time, right, So, and they play man coverage at

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Speaker 6: the top right in the league. So Don Tavian Wicks

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Speaker 6: is who I would look for as a packer for

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Speaker 6: the Bears. I'm gonna go with Caleb Williams. He's around

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Speaker 6: plus four to twenty five. He's got three rushing touchdowns

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Speaker 6: this year, and he loves to make things happen on

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Speaker 6: the run. When you watch him, like it's like he's

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Speaker 6: allergic to throwing from the pocket. Like he just shows

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Speaker 6: a lot of scrambling ability. Nineteen red zone carries that's

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Speaker 6: third for all NFL quarterbacks. So I think the Bears

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Speaker 6: are still gonna lean on the run heavy in this matchup.

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Speaker 6: I think this sets up perfectly for Kleb to get

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Speaker 6: out of the pocket run one in if DeAndre Swift

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Speaker 6: and Kyle mong and I are having just such an

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Speaker 6: effective game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, don Wicks.

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Speaker 3: I mean these Packers receivers, it's someone new pops almost

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Speaker 3: every game. And yeah, yeah are dealing with some injuries there,

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Speaker 3: so wouldn't be surprised if Wicks pops again. Chiefs at

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Speaker 3: the Tennessee Titans. No Patrick Mahomes of course, with the Chiefs,

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Speaker 3: they look pretty banged up as well, So I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: go with Kareem Hunt here at plus one eighty five.

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Speaker 3: I think I just don't know how the Chiefs are

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Speaker 3: going to get time for Gardner Minshew to throw the

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Speaker 3: ball down the field in this matchup. Probably a bad

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Speaker 3: weather game too, so I'm not really keen on the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs scoring too much. I think this could be a

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Speaker 3: big letdown game for them, But if they get in close,

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Speaker 3: I still think it's going to be Kareem Hunt. I

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Speaker 3: know Pacheco saw kind of an up ticket in usage

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Speaker 3: last week, but I mean he ran like eleven times

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Speaker 3: for twenty one yards. Hunt still has some contract extentives

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Speaker 3: for different scrimmage yards and things like that, so I

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Speaker 3: think Hunt still is going to get the ball and

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Speaker 3: he's the best bet on the Chiefs to score as

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Speaker 3: he is has been most weeks at plus one eighty five,

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Speaker 3: and then for the Titans, Tony Pollard at plus one forty.

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Speaker 3: He's starting to come on down the stretch as the

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Speaker 3: Titans are starting to play with more neutral game script.

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Speaker 3: So started to see it a couple of weeks ago

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Speaker 3: against the Browns, and then you know, even last week

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Speaker 3: didn't have as much neutral game script. But he's had

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Speaker 3: enough to get in the end zone. Fourteen carries, one

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Speaker 3: hundred and four yards and a touch. The week before

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Speaker 3: he had two on twenty five carries, and those are

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Speaker 3: his two most high volume games since early in the year,

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Speaker 3: since since October. So I think that they want to

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Speaker 3: lean on Pollard to close out the season and like

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Speaker 3: the matchup because the Chiefs they're three point favorite. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: three point favorites in this spot. This is not the

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Speaker 3: same Chiefs team. Banged up offensive line, banged up at receiver,

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Speaker 3: no Mahomes. We'll see who goes on defense. I saw

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Speaker 3: Jones just popped up on the injury report. Mc duffy's

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Speaker 3: got a knee, so there could be some opportunities even

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Speaker 3: multiple for powered here to get his third straight game

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Speaker 3: with a touchdown. Next up, we got the Minnesota Vikings

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Speaker 3: at the New York Giants.

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Speaker 1: I guess they're just giving.

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Speaker 3: You all the luck sides, Sean, because I believe the

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Speaker 3: Giants are another one plus three. I guess that's gone

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Speaker 3: down a plus two and a half at some spots

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Speaker 3: at home against the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: Who do we like here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a team predictive analytics game then, so

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Speaker 4: I'm happy to take this game. Also happy to stick

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Speaker 4: with Jordan Mason this week at plus one ninety. I was,

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Speaker 4: of course on him last week plus two ten and

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Speaker 4: he was in on a few goal in plays, and

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Speaker 4: that first one I was like, Okay, they're for sure

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Speaker 4: going to give it to CJ. Ham here, and they

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Speaker 4: you know, it was a play action rollout where JJ

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Speaker 4: McCarthy ran it himself. He was wide open, he did

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Speaker 4: the gritty running into the end zone. And then the

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Speaker 4: next time they were in the same exact spot, I

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Speaker 4: was like, Okay, now they're for sure going to give

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Speaker 4: it to c J.

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Speaker 5: Ham.

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Speaker 4: Wish they did. So we saw our one CJ. Ham

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Speaker 4: touchdown for the season, So this week I'm expecting them

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Speaker 4: to actually give it to Jordan Mason. In that same

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Speaker 4: exact spot, and this is just a great matchup against

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Speaker 4: the Giants run defense. You know, we've been picking on

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Speaker 4: this defense all year when it comes to running back.

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Speaker 4: So I like the spot for him. I like, you know,

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Speaker 4: for Minnesota to keep you know, putting up points. So

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Speaker 4: I'm projecting him closer to plus one sixty five. So

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Speaker 4: like getting him here at plus one ninety. And on

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Speaker 4: the other side, I'm going to go with Isaiah Hodgens

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Speaker 4: at plus six hundred. You might not know it because

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Speaker 4: he's only gone for two catches in eight yards of

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Speaker 4: past two games, but he's averaging a ninety routes run

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Speaker 4: rate the past two weeks, so he's out there. You know,

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Speaker 4: Darius Slayton and Wandale Robinson. He's never gonna be a

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Speaker 4: high volume guy, but you know, when they do get

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Speaker 4: in the red zone, he is a bigger target at

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Speaker 4: six three, so you know, I think if he does

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Speaker 4: see targets, they're typically going to be you know, sort

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Speaker 4: of in the red zone area. So and he did

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Speaker 4: score a touchdown a few weeks ago, so I think

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Speaker 4: he's a sneaky bet here at plus six hundred. I'm

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Speaker 4: projecting him culture at plus five to twenty.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Hodgens definitely, that's what he's there for. I mean

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Speaker 3: they Kafka, you know, brought him back. They had him

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty three and Kafka was the OC and

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Speaker 3: that was his role, you know, catch touchdowns in the

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Speaker 3: red zone.

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Speaker 5: All right.

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Speaker 3: Next up we have the Tampa Bay Bucks going to Carolina,

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Speaker 3: big game against the Panthers. Baker Mayfield been a lot

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Speaker 3: better Joe with Mike Evans Chris Godwin on the field.

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Speaker 1: Who do we like in this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: I think last week when we were doing the Thursday

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Speaker 6: Night Football parlay and you gave out Mike Evans coming

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Speaker 6: off of injury. I was a little iffy about it

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Speaker 6: because it was a round plus one seventy. But after

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Speaker 6: that game, I've seen enough. You were on the right track.

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Speaker 6: Because he only played fifty five percent of snaps in

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Speaker 6: Week fifteen, he still led the team with twelve targets

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Speaker 6: and an end zone target. So Mike Evans I love

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Speaker 6: him to score a touchdown on this Panthers defense this week.

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Speaker 6: It's my favorite touchdown bet of the week. Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 6: clearly favors him as a top target in this offense.

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Speaker 6: He can excel versus zone or man coverage. Now, the

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Speaker 6: Panthers do play a lot of his own, but last

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Speaker 6: season versus Carolina under a lot of the same defensive structure,

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Speaker 6: he cooked them for like three touchdowns, twenty catches, two

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Speaker 6: hundred yards. They're thirtieth the defense of dvo Wa versus

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Speaker 6: wide receiver ons this year, like we've seen outside wide

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Speaker 6: receivers like Juwan Jennings, Chris Olave, Davonte Adams. They've all

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Speaker 6: had big games on this secondary over the last three weeks.

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Speaker 6: So I'm likely laddering them for two touchdowns as well,

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Speaker 6: around fourteen to one. So that's my first bet that

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Speaker 6: I like from this game. On the Panthers side, I'm

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Speaker 6: gonna take Bryce Young. He's around plus seven hundred, really

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Speaker 6: seeing his scramble rate take off over the last month.

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Speaker 6: Thirty percent of his total scrambles this season have come

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Speaker 6: in just the last three games. So he's facing a

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Speaker 6: Bucks defense that blitz is at the sixth highest rate

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Speaker 6: in the NFL, and his scramble rate takes a massive

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Speaker 6: jump when being blitzed, and the Bucks run defense. Obviously

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Speaker 6: they're pretty strong on the inside with Vitavea, but they've

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Speaker 6: been beaten on outside runs from quarterbacks lately, like Tyler

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Speaker 6: Schuck when he scored twice, one of those was on

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Speaker 6: an outside run. Josh Allen, he ran for three touchdowns

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Speaker 6: on this defense. One of them is on the outside.

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Speaker 6: So like, I'm not gonna pretend like Bryce Young is

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Speaker 6: gonna get tush pushed into the end zone, but he

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Speaker 6: can scramble outside of the pocket and that is kind

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Speaker 6: of where it sets up for him. So this is arguably, like, again,

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Speaker 6: don't want to do the legacy game thing with Trevor

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Speaker 6: Lawrence like we were doing, but this is probably the

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Speaker 6: biggest game of his career.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take him at seven to one. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it makes sense.

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Speaker 1: Bucks love to blitz.

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Speaker 3: I'm surprised that low sixth I would think it would

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Speaker 3: be right behind the Vikens up there at number two

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Speaker 3: Jets at Saints. This is a kind of a crapshoot

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Speaker 3: game where I think he can go with a little

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Speaker 3: bit off the board here. For the Jets, I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: go with Jeremy Rucker, the backup tight end who will

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Speaker 3: get the start here at plus five thirty. Just got

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Speaker 3: the contract extension so they could be trying. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they don't have anything to play for. They could be

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Speaker 3: trying for a little positive pr You know, you just

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Speaker 3: gave the guy a contract extension.

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Speaker 1: Try to get him in the end zone here.

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Speaker 3: He'll get to start at tight end for the injured

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Speaker 3: Mason Taylor and then for the Saints. Going with Kevin

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Speaker 3: Austin Junior, expect him to be called up again to

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Speaker 3: play the role that Devon Veiway will vacate because he's

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Speaker 3: gonna be out. He's already ruled out when once Veiway

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Speaker 3: went down, it wasn't Pettis who saw an increase in

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Speaker 3: snaps at all. Pettis was essentially Chris o'lave's direct backup,

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Speaker 3: and Austin was the one who saw a big increase

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Speaker 3: in snaps and essentially took those snaps that Veyley left behind.

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Speaker 3: So expecting him to do that again kind of a

291
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Speaker 3: long shot here because Tyler Schuck will probably end up

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Speaker 3: just running it in anyway. But I gotta go with

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Speaker 3: Kevin Austin here. I think he's interesting, kind of a

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Speaker 3: sleeper pick who will get could get close to ninety

295
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Speaker 3: of the routes if they give him that full Veylay role.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes there.

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Speaker 3: Probably will go with a little more heavy personnel this week,

298
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Speaker 3: but still expect Austin to be that number two or

299
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Speaker 3: three receiver with Tipton and Olave Chargers at the Dallas Cowboys,

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Speaker 3: this is an interesting game. If the Cowboys are essentially eliminated,

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Speaker 3: the Chargers keep on winning these close games, what are

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Speaker 3: we looking at for charges Cowboys?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So for the Chargers, I'm going to have to

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Speaker 4: go justin Herbert here at six to one. And you know,

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Speaker 4: it was crazy how just days after having surgery and

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Speaker 4: has broken left hand, Herbert rushed ten times for sixty

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Speaker 4: six yards and he kept like landing on it like

308
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Speaker 4: I thought he reinjured it. But I wasn't shock. Last

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Speaker 4: week he dialed back a ton only rushed twice for

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Speaker 4: zero yards, which I expected him to really dial back,

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Speaker 4: but I would assume, you know, he really hasn't had

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Speaker 4: any setback so far, so his hand's probably starting to

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Speaker 4: feel a lot better, might be trending closer to one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent. Maybe not all the way there this week,

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Speaker 4: but I think we'll probably start to see him turning

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Speaker 4: back to his typical scramble rate here, especially in you know,

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Speaker 4: high leverage goal to go type situation. So I think

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Speaker 4: we're getting some sneaky diye here at six to one.

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Speaker 4: He only has one rushing touchdown this year. He's rushed

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Speaker 4: for multiple touchdowns in all but one season so far

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Speaker 4: in his career, so I think it's a good time

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Speaker 4: to buy low on him in this market. I'm projecting

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Speaker 4: closer to five to one here, and then yeah, for

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys side, I'm going to go George Pickens at

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Speaker 4: plus one eighty. Like you said, they're elimited, they have

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Speaker 4: nothing to play for, but Pickens has millions of dollars

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Speaker 4: to play for right now, because you know, he's cooled

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Speaker 4: off the last couple of games. He's had some really

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Speaker 4: bad plays on film that I think have cost him

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Speaker 4: significantly on his upcoming you know massive contract that he's

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Speaker 4: playing for. So I think, you know, the last few

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Speaker 4: weeks he's gonna have to step up, and I think

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Speaker 4: he does here. I'm actually I'm projecting clser to plus

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Speaker 4: one twenty. This is actually one of the top values

335
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Speaker 4: in our prop tool right now, and they're still you know,

336
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Speaker 4: their slight favorites at home. This could be a shootout,

337
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Speaker 4: So I think we're getting pretty good value here on

338
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,600
Speaker 4: Pickens at plus one eighty.

339
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Charger fans are going no setbacks. The

340
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 3: entire offensive line has been a setback, so Herbert might

341
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Speaker 3: have to scramble just because that offensive line.

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Speaker 1: Is just, I mean, it's it's terrible.

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Speaker 3: So like that, Herbert call Jill Bills at the Browns

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Speaker 3: wind cold weather kind of game here in Cleveland should

345
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Speaker 3: be interesting. Bill's are good. Bills tend to be good

346
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Speaker 3: though in that kind of weather. But what are you

347
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Speaker 3: looking for? Bill's Browns?

348
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Speaker 4: Uh?

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Speaker 6: I just wouldn't say before we start. I'd be remiss

350
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Speaker 6: if I didn't say that the Cowboys technically.

351
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Speaker 2: Are not eliminated. Yeah they are.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to think that, I know, I know

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Speaker 1: where we're going.

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Speaker 2: We're damn alright, all right.

355
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Speaker 1: They couldn't be eliminated though by the time the game

356
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Speaker 1: gets underwear.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely all right.

358
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Speaker 6: So last week, Ravon, you remember we were really high

359
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Speaker 6: on Gabe Davis in that matchup and he ended up

360
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:40,280
Speaker 6: getting scratched because Josh Palmer got elevated. Well, why don't

361
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 6: we just go back to Josh Palmer though, because Josh

362
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Speaker 6: Palmer's back. Brandon Cooks is expected back. Josh Palmer is

363
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Speaker 6: around five to one. I know Kerner will get behind

364
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Speaker 6: a Josh Palmer touchdown. Bet we kind of know the

365
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 6: pecking order now with this Bill's office, and Kean Coleman

366
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,399
Speaker 6: is still like seeing his snaps go down. Palmer weeds

367
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 6: the team in target chair against man defenses this year.

368
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,399
Speaker 6: That's what the Browns play, and four red zone targets.

369
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Speaker 6: He almost connected four score against the Patriots last week.

370
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Speaker 6: Denzel Ward not practicing so far, he could be out

371
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 6: this week as well. So the Browns defense is allowed

372
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Speaker 6: an outside wide receiver to score on them in four

373
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Speaker 6: straight games. Five touchdowns allowed to wide receivers in that span.

374
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Speaker 6: So let's stick Josh Palmer, who's kind of like, you know,

375
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Speaker 6: he doesn't have a huge average depth of target, you know,

376
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Speaker 6: I feel like this is kind of the week where

377
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Speaker 6: he could get a score here at five to one

378
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,639
Speaker 6: on the brown side. I was debating on whether or

379
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 6: not I was going to go with Judkins two touchdowns here,

380
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 6: but I think we just have to keep going with

381
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 6: Harold Fannon. He's around three to one. I think you

382
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:35,840
Speaker 6: got to stick with him. He's the top target on

383
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 6: the Browns no matter who is that quarterback. In four

384
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 6: games with Shader Sanders as the starter, he's scored in

385
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 6: two of them, leads the team in targets per run

386
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,679
Speaker 6: two ed zone targets. To put that in perspective, like

387
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 6: Fannin has ran the same amount of Browns as Jerry

388
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,119
Speaker 6: Judy in that span, but nearly doubles him in target

389
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 6: share in first three targets.

390
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Speaker 2: So he, to me, is the passing offense.

391
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Speaker 6: So I'm going to tell Harold Fannon at plus two

392
00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 6: eighty and Josh Palmer at five to one.

393
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this is this game is such a

394
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Speaker 3: mind fuck because I could see like we'll be on

395
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:08,679
Speaker 3: Palmer this week, and Palmer will be the.

396
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Speaker 1: Guy to get scratched.

397
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 3: Like they're like they're gonna they're gonna have to scratch

398
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 3: and Mkole Hardman practiced, so they're gonna have to scratch

399
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 3: like one or two of those guys every week. I'm

400
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,639
Speaker 3: thinking it will be probably maybe Cooks this week. I

401
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 3: bet you Davis will be active, but Coleman or Cooks

402
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 3: I think are at risk of getting scratched this week.

403
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 1: And for the Browns probably.

404
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 3: A good thing not going with Judkins because it's starting

405
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 3: to get weird, like they went with Cravy on Williams

406
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 3: for short yardage go on, and Rockett Sanders was active,

407
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,719
Speaker 3: so he was the guy that scored their first touchdown

408
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 3: of the year, I think the first touchdown of twenty

409
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,639
Speaker 3: twenty five on the on the red zone slate at least.

410
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 3: So it's just hard to predict for them, But yeah,

411
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 3: Fannin is just absolute monster, maybe the best rookie tight

412
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 3: end of them all. Bengals Dolphins, Quinn, you were getting

413
00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 3: to start from Miami, gotta go with Greg do at

414
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:06,399
Speaker 3: six to one for Miami, yours backup quarterback probably going

415
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 3: to rely on the tight end, and who's he probably

416
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 3: been throwing to on that scout team on the you know,

417
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 3: second team, Greg Dosag, Greg Dosiic has been the backup

418
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 3: and now you know Waller is on the injury report.

419
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: I suspected he would be.

420
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 3: I know he ended up going back in and catching

421
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 3: a couple of touchdowns against the Steelers. But it is

422
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,160
Speaker 3: a short week and with the Dolphins kind of sitting

423
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 3: here out of the picture, they could take it easy

424
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 3: with Wallar here. So I wouldn't be surprised if Dosag

425
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 3: sees a lot of run in this one. He's his

426
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: route rate is starting to go up anyway over the

427
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 3: last couple of games had a sixty two games ago,

428
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: so I think it could get back to that point

429
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 3: with viewers at quarterback here and the Bengals have been

430
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 3: the worst team in the league at defending tight ends,

431
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 3: giving up the most touchdowns by a landslide over second place.

432
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 3: And for Cincinnati Tanner Hudson seven to one. I feel

433
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 3: like this is a very Kerner type of game here

434
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 3: because I known would probably be on both these guys

435
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 3: Tanner Hudson seven to one, No off banged up, Drew

436
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 3: Sample banged up and Hudson when he gets snaps, they're

437
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 3: usually in the red zone. So even though he doesn't

438
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 3: get many snaps, if you look at the overall snap rate,

439
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 3: they usually come in high leverage situations. That's why we've

440
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 3: seen him catch a couple of these random touchdowns already

441
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 3: this year. So love him at seven to one in

442
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 3: a game he actually could see a bit of an

443
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 3: uptick in his usage rate on all parts of the field.

444
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: Kerner.

445
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 3: We got the Cardinals and the Falcons. Jacoby Brissett still

446
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 3: plugging away the Cardinals. I mean, their running back room

447
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,919
Speaker 3: is just decimated. Maybe they'll get some receivers back who

448
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 3: we're looking at for Falcons at Cardinals.

449
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is a game where both teams are

450
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 4: officially mathematically eliminated. And you know, for the Falcons, I'm

451
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 4: gonna go with my guy Tyler al Joe here at

452
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 4: plus one fifty has eight touchdowns this year, So this

453
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 4: is the kind of market you want to invest in them.

454
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 4: But you know, the Falcons, they have a team toll

455
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 4: around twenty five, which is, you know, one of the

456
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 4: higher ones of the week. And you know Algier always

457
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,679
Speaker 4: has touch on upside since he tends to mix in

458
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 4: you know, heavily run the goal line. And with their

459
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 4: season over, it would make sense for them to sort

460
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 4: of limit the Jon Robinson's workload. I mean, the worst

461
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 4: thing they could do is have him suffer an injury

462
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 4: where his you know, Week one status next year is

463
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 4: in question. So I think we could see a little

464
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 4: bit more Algier work. Not that you know, he's unimportant either,

465
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 4: but I think he's sneaky here at plus one fifty

466
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 4: in this spot. And then on the other side, I'm

467
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 4: gonna get crazy here, I'm gonna go with Corey Kiner

468
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 4: at plus nine hundred. You know, damn knights on ir

469
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 4: So Michael Carter should be the workhorse back here, but

470
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 4: Kiner's kind of a sneaky guy. You know, he was

471
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:04,959
Speaker 4: undrafted free agent by the Niners earlier this year, and

472
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 4: he looked pretty good in preseason. He rushed twelve times

473
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 4: for sixty eight yards, so just under a six yards

474
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 4: per rush average. And you know, last week he saw

475
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 4: two carries for loving yards. So he's he's shown promise

476
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 4: in the very limited work he's seen as a rookie.

477
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 4: So you know, the Cardinals out of it, it wouldn't

478
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 4: kill them to give him some, you.

479
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 5: Know, extra work here.

480
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 4: And I guess corner our prop tool he was twenty

481
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 4: five to one earlier in the week somewhere, and that

482
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 4: would have been like a Jehar Jordan because he's the

483
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 4: ja Yeah, because he's the number three back. Like I'm

484
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 4: not saying he's gonna like dominate the workload. But if

485
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 4: you know, Michael Carter would be the fifth Cardinal back

486
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 4: to suffer in game injury this this week, you know

487
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 4: he would be the one to step up or de

488
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 4: Mercado's probably the you know, the passing down back and

489
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 4: maybe the backup, but I think Kiner could take over.

490
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 4: And again, he's flashed a ton of upsides. So even

491
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 4: though he's kind one that's probably closer where I have it,

492
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 4: I have him, you know, closer to plus eight hundred,

493
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 4: this is still just a very volatile situation. He's the

494
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 4: type of player that benefits from that volatility, so similar

495
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 4: to Jordan last week at much much lower odds.

496
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 5: Of course.

497
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Carters are one of those teams that

498
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 3: they've been very unpredictable with their running back usage, Like

499
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 3: one week, Demricato will be the starting running back like

500
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,719
Speaker 3: early downs next week. Like even like the fact that

501
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 3: Michael Carter was such a workhorse last week, even with

502
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 3: Vam night out was kind of surprising. I mean, Michael

503
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 3: Carter had been more of the passing down back last

504
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 3: time Demricado went down, Demricatto was kind of the lead back.

505
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 1: And then I think.

506
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 3: Kinner actually ended up getting more carries in Deverriccado.

507
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: Last weeks.

508
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 3: I think he got two or two or yeah, two

509
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 3: and Demricotta only had one. So I wouldn't be surprised

510
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 3: if Kinner just starts the game.

511
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was a few weeks ago. Oh, they like

512
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 4: cut Michael Carter, then they re signed him. To the press,

513
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 4: They've they've been just doing some weird things with Michael

514
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 4: Carter specifically.

515
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 5: So yeah, who the hell knows?

516
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean all their backs.

517
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 3: Remember it was like Benson was the third down back

518
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: and then like that, that's what the whole Carter confusion

519
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 3: came in. And then Dericado was the lead back after

520
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 3: he had the fumble, and then now he's.

521
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 1: Like out of the it's it's it's totally weird.

522
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if any of the three of

523
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 3: them get the start in our the workhorse. So yeah,

524
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 3: Kiner at the longest odds makes a lot of sense.

525
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: Joe Jaguars going to Denver to face the Broncos who

526
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 3: keep finding ways to win games.

527
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: Who were looking at in Jaggs Broncos.

528
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 6: All right, So remember we took Nate Adkins last week

529
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 6: and I was like, a long shot is going to score? Well,

530
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 6: Michael Bandy scored and he only played two snaps. Yeah,

531
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 6: one route and the one route scored at twenty receiver.

532
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 6: And even little Jordan Humphrey scored last week. But little

533
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 6: Jordan Humphrey, he was like twelve to one. Now he's

534
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 6: around like six to one this week. So taking this

535
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 6: kind of roulette train here of what we're gonna do,

536
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 6: I'm gonna take Marvin Mims. He's around six to one. Obviously,

537
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 6: he hasn't scored as much this year compared to last year.

538
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 6: He's still an explosive weapon for the Broncos returning kicks.

539
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 6: He's still seeing a lot of deep targets as well.

540
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 6: He only has two less deep targets than Cortland Sutton

541
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 6: despite missing two games. And the Jaguars pass defense just

542
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 6: hasn't been really good this year. They play a lot

543
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 6: of his own third highest our target rate to wide

544
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 6: receivers thirteen touchdowns. So if Bonix is kind of playing

545
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 6: lights out like he's been, like especially last week where

546
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 6: we saw them have a ton of explosive plays on

547
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 6: that Packers defense, I think we're gonna see more passing

548
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 6: touchdowns this week. So I just think Marvin Mims it's

549
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 6: his turn this week. But if I say Marvin Mims,

550
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 6: then it'll be uh, you know, it'll be Adam Troutman.

551
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 6: You know, he'll score this week.

552
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 1: Every wide receiver scored for the Broncos last week except

553
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: Marvin Wims.

554
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, so now he's new Yeah all right, so

555
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 2: all right, this is the first time I've done that

556
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 2: this year.

557
00:26:58,480 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 5: It's the Adam Prentice.

558
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, come on, don't don't don't even get you,

559
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 3: don't get you.

560
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 6: There's so even like Mercedes Lewis is, it could could

561
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 6: end up with a target and on the couch.

562
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 2: Well, he was active like last week.

563
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: He's still on a roster.

564
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, well maybe.

565
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 5: Well I get the elevated one more time. They have

566
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 5: to sign him right now.

567
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 1: I think he's I think he's up.

568
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 3: He's not on a roster, so they had to have

569
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: cut him by now ran her out.

570
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 1: I don't think he ran her out while he was active.

571
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know he he actually played four games, so

572
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 3: they did sign him to the active roster that Vegas.

573
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: Game, but then they cut him. Yeah.

574
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 6: Well, the way she goes in the NFL, I guess,

575
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 6: all right, on the Broncos or part of me on

576
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 6: the Jaguars side. So I haven't done that this this

577
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 6: year on the show. I have not bet a guy

578
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 6: that had a true what I would call revenge game scenario.

579
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 6: And this is Tim Patrick at ten to one. This

580
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 6: is a full revenge game scenario with actually like data

581
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 6: that actually can support it instead of just oh, he

582
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 6: used to play on the team. Since Jacoby Myers has

583
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 6: come to the Jaguars, the Jaguars wide receiver rotation just

584
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 6: been completely in flux. What they do now is compared

585
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 6: to when he was with the Raiders. He used to

586
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 6: line up mostly in the slot. It was like a

587
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 6: sixty percent slot. Right now he's been lining up outside

588
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 6: him and Brian Thomas Junior over seventy five percent. So

589
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 6: as a result, Tim Patrick is now playing either outside

590
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 6: or sometimes in the slot. And over those last five games,

591
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 6: Patrick is the one with the highest targets run versus

592
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 6: man defenses, which is what the Broncos like to play

593
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 6: a lot for red zone targets on that stretch with

594
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 6: a touchdown, so he's probably going to avoid that. Patrick's

595
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 6: retained matchup on the outside because Myers, like I said,

596
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 6: is lining up mostly outside since he's come over to

597
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 6: the Jags. So perfect revenge game spot. Like remember like

598
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 6: he was pretty good touchdown He had a lot of

599
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 6: good touchdown moments as a Bronco, but then a couple

600
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 6: of injuries, you know, acl tours Achilles was kind of

601
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 6: out of the league for like two years and then

602
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 6: kind of had a nice little insurgence with Detroit last year.

603
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 6: Now is playing well with the Jaguars, so I love

604
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 6: him right now. I ten to one to score on

605
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 6: this Broncos defense.

606
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Tim Patrick is I think super sneaky

607
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: because Diami Brown isn't really a part of the offense anymore.

608
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 3: So it's you know, it's Parker, Washington and Patrick as

609
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 3: those you know, kind of sloted three four receivers now

610
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 3: for Jacksonville Pittsburgh at Detroit High total game in this

611
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: one for the Steelers, I'm going with Dk Metcalf at

612
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 3: plus one point eighty. The Lions just give up a

613
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 3: ton of touchdowns to wide receivers, and the Lions are

614
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 3: bold enough to play man coverage and I'll take Dk,

615
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 3: the big body in the red zone against man coverage

616
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 3: all day. But if they do kind of switch it

617
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: up and play zone, DK's also one of the better

618
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 3: receivers against zone coverage because you can just run away

619
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 3: from it.

620
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 1: And I like that.

621
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: The Steelers are kind of I mean, behind Metcalf, it's

622
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 3: just who Valdez Scantling the wind, Calvin Austin Scronic. I mean,

623
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 3: just a whole bunch of guys who probably you're probably

624
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 3: surprised are still in the league or you never knew

625
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: where in the league. So love that metcalf is just

626
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 3: set up to be a target hog in probably the

627
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: high scoring game that they will project to play this year.

628
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 1: So love him. And in a trailing game Script two.

629
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 3: And then for the Detroit Lions, gotta go with Shane

630
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 3: Zilstra here he has essentially taken over their starting tight

631
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 3: end role. Remember Laporta on ir brock Wright, same thing

632
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 3: they cut Ross Dwelly Ferkser was filling that role for

633
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 3: a minute, but Zilstra has been on the ir since

634
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 3: early in the year. He came off and he was

635
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 3: their top tight end in the red zone. Ran just

636
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: as many red zone routes as Isaac Teslaw last week.

637
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 3: So I was looking at t Slaw but then saw

638
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 3: that Zilstra has even longer odds.

639
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: And remember this is this same Shane Zilstro that.

640
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 3: Once upon a time did score three touchdowns in the

641
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 3: same game for the Detroit Lions.

642
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: So I think he's sneaky here.

643
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 3: At plus five fifty Steelers have had issues covering tight

644
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: ends as well this season Vegas at Houston. I mean,

645
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 3: the only good thing you could say about the Raiders, Sean,

646
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 3: I feel like you keep getting these weird like betting

647
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,959
Speaker 3: kind of games, Like teams coming off shutouts usually do

648
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 3: very well. So maybe the Raiders surprised some people here,

649
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 3: but they just were completely hapless against the Eagles. So

650
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 3: good luck trying to find a touchdown there.

651
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 1: Who you going?

652
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 5: Yeah?

653
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, So, I mean the Raiders aren't a team I

654
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 4: think we want to be investing too much in this market,

655
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,479
Speaker 4: especially against the Texans. I mean, this is just the

656
00:31:54,520 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 4: worst possible situation possible. Well, yeah, I think Nick was

657
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 4: telling me that was like one of the lowest expected

658
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: store scores in some time. That was brutal. But at

659
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: least Gino Smith is back, right, that should help. Just kidding,

660
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 4: but yeah, they're team totals ten and a half. They're

661
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 4: I get they're nine to one to get shut out.

662
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,719
Speaker 4: So this is just wild. So I'm gonna go with

663
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 4: Ashton Genty here at plus two thirty five. You know,

664
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,719
Speaker 4: he's probably the most likely player score if they do

665
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 4: score touchdown, So I'm just gonna go with him because

666
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 4: I'm I'm pretty much in line with this. I'm projecting

667
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 4: him right around plus two thirty, so some slight value here,

668
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 4: but no one else, literally, no one else I'm showing

669
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 4: any positive ev to score for the Raiders. But on

670
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 4: the Texan side, I have to stick with my guy

671
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 4: Jayden Higgins here at plus three thirty. Like, this is

672
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 4: a guy he's gonna be like plus two hundred every

673
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 4: week next year.

674
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 5: Everyone's gonna betting on him.

675
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 4: And here I am probably like four or five games

676
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 4: in a row not hitting on him to score. But

677
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 4: he's just showing too much value at plus three thirty

678
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 4: because his flaw the past you know, five weeks or so,

679
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 4: it's just he's not getting enough playing time. Typically he's

680
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 4: out there, you know for fifty five percent of c

681
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 4: J shrouds dropbacks. Well last week it went up to

682
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 4: sixty six percent, but you know, his target rate just

683
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 4: dropped a ton. So that's that's the thing that we

684
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 4: needed the most. This is the playing time. So now

685
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 4: that that's there, I think it's it's gonna all come

686
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 4: together for him eventually. And this is obviously, you know,

687
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 4: an easier matchup, so I think, you know, I'm projecting

688
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 4: him closer to plus two eighty five. I'm gonna stick

689
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 4: with my guy Jayden here at plus three thirty.

690
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 3: I can't believe he didn't go a jar Jordan. I mean,

691
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 3: who knows if he'll even be on the roster this week.

692
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 4: But yeah, iron it sounds like Chubb is gonna play,

693
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 4: uh and Windy Marx keeps missing practice, So I think

694
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 4: that'll help. If like Chubb's active and like Jordan's like

695
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 4: backing him up, you know, the market might back off

696
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 4: of him a bit, and you know, we might have

697
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,959
Speaker 4: some value. But yeah, I'm with you. I think if

698
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 4: Jordan's you know, on the roster and playing whatever his

699
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 4: odds are, he's probably showing some sly value at least.

700
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 6: I'm not sure, man, because right now he is plus

701
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 6: three thirty. I'm seeing at some spot maybe even plus one.

702
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: Oh my god, that that was like the Duri Duram

703
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 3: smythe was like plus four hundred. When I looked like

704
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 3: two days ago, It's like, yeah, that's like number two receivers.

705
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 6: Do you think they're pricing I think it's going to

706
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:29,800
Speaker 6: miss the game though. I think that's why.

707
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 4: Bolts maybe these touchdown the way they the way they

708
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 4: priced these. They don't really give you an edge by

709
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 4: locking in situations like this this early because they're just

710
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 4: going to price the best case scenario. Yeah, I think

711
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 4: once you get closer to kick off, like again, assuming

712
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 4: what he marks is out and Chubb is active, we

713
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 4: might see them bump him up to like plus five

714
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 4: fifty or something like that. So yeah, they're pricing him

715
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 4: at almost best case scenario right now.

716
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't know.

717
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,760
Speaker 3: You just scored last week, ye Ohno go away.

718
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:04,879
Speaker 4: And they know that people are gonna want to bet

719
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 4: on him, so they can't They can't offer him too

720
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 4: much higher than that right now. So I think if

721
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 4: anything is odds will probably go up, unless if Chubb's

722
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 4: rolled out, you know, then he'll drop to like plus

723
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 4: one fifty or something like that. So if if that

724
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 4: news breaks that, you know, both running backs, right, you

725
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 4: got to run and grab that.

726
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, they'll probably have to pivot to like okun buawe

727
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 3: after all. Yeah, all right, before we get into our

728
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 3: favorite Sunday anytime, touchdown, parlay and hit the primetime slates,

729
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 3: don't forget to sign up for Action Pro for real

730
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 3: time pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner, Joe Golant, myself,

731
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 3: and the entire Action Network team. Plus, you can access

732
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 3: our pro projections powered by Kerner and our predictive analytics team.

733
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: Just go to Action network dot com slash pro and

734
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 3: get twenty dollars off the annual price with the promo

735
00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 3: code POD twenty. That's Pod two zero. Don't miss out

736
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 3: on the best bets at the best prices. Visit Action

737
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 3: network dot com slash pro and use promo code po

738
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 3: D two zero for twenty dollars off a year of

739
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 3: Action Pro. All right, time for our favorite Sunday Anytime

740
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 3: Touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings. This will be for strictly

741
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:28,800
Speaker 3: these Sunday daytime slates and no primetime games, no Saturday games.

742
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 1: Kerner, start us off, who are you looking at?

743
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 4: Yeah? I'm gonna go George Pickens here at plus one eighty.

744
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 4: You know, he's really cooled off the last couple of weeks,

745
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 4: but you know, I think he's gonna have to step

746
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,240
Speaker 4: up these last few games. He's playing for that big

747
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 4: contract this upcoming offseason, so I think he bounces back.

748
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 4: I'm projecting him closer to plus one twenty, so he's

749
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 4: actually one of the top values in our prop tool

750
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 4: right now. So you're gonna go with Pickens as my

751
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 4: top play this week.

752
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 6: Jill whattally like, I'm gonna go with Mike Evans. I

753
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 6: think it's a favorable matchup. I think he's gonna play

754
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 6: way more than fifty five percent of snaps in his

755
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 6: second game back, so we're getting around plus one sixty

756
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 6: five at DraftKings.

757
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 2: I'll take that. Oh yeah.

758
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 3: Mike Evans one of my favorites of the week as well.

759
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 3: He scored in over half of his games that he

760
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 3: suited up with Baker Mayfield as his quarterback, So I

761
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 3: think Evans will get loose, might even get a couple

762
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 3: against the Panthers here, But I'm gonna go with d

763
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,399
Speaker 3: k Metcalf against the Detroit Lions. Should be in a

764
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 3: trailing game script indoors high scoring game. The Detroit Lions

765
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 3: have given up the second most touchdowns two opposing wide receivers,

766
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:42,240
Speaker 3: and we know it's the most likely steal a receiver

767
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 3: to catch a touchdown by far will be dk Metcalf.

768
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 3: Also starting to get some schemed up, you know, rush

769
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 3: attempts things like that as well, So like him at

770
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 3: plus one point eighty your parlay pickings, Evans Metcalf's. Those

771
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 3: are some good touchdown scoring widers. Was there eighteen to

772
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 3: one at Draft Kings That was our favorite anytime touchdown

773
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 3: parlay for the Sunday Daytime slate for Week number sixteen,

774
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 3: presented by DraftKings. All right, let's get into Sunday night football.

775
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:24,720
Speaker 3: Good matchup Patriots Ravens, Ravens the field goal favorite kerner.

776
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 1: Who do you like in past Ravens?

777
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, so on Sunday night, you know we're all be

778
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 4: raybon And no it's not be not that club booty,

779
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 4: but the club booty, Kishan Boody plus three twenty, sign

780
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 4: me up. I'm projecting him closer to plus two eighty here.

781
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 4: And you know this is a very crowded wide receiver

782
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 4: room in New England, but he tends to lead the

783
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 4: room every weekend routes run rate last week it was

784
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 4: right around ninety percent, and he does have a pretty

785
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 4: low target rate just you know, twelve percent of his

786
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 4: routes this season he is seeing a target, but they're

787
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 4: typically high value target, you know, downfield or in the

788
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 4: end zone. So he actually leads the Patriots with six

789
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 4: in zone targets, and this is a game where you

790
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 4: know they're a rare underdog. They're getting three points here

791
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 4: against the Ravens, so I'm expecting to a little bit

792
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 4: more aggressive just passing the ball downfield here, which sets

793
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 4: up perfectly for Booty here.

794
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, he is.

795
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 3: He's their number one receiver at the moment in terms

796
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 3: of the route rate because Gigs, I guess managing some

797
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 3: type of injury. That's what he said anyway, So his

798
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 3: route rate has been kind of declining.

799
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 1: We'll see if that continues. Joe, who were looking at

800
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 1: in Baltimore in New England.

801
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 6: I think Lamar Jackson is where we got to go.

802
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 6: Patriots do tend to play a little bit more man coverage.

803
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 6: That should set up for Lamar to ad more scrambling.

804
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 6: I also think we're getting a pretty good price here

805
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 6: around three to one at DraftKings, just because last week

806
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 6: I think the market cooled off on him going against

807
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 6: the Bengals.

808
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 2: He barely had to do anything. They pretty much shut

809
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 2: the team out.

810
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 6: So I think in this game, in a more competitive space,

811
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 6: I think at three to one, this is a great

812
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 6: I want to grab Lamar.

813
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Mark Andrews coming off a dud

814
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 3: against the Bengals, so maybe the market will be a little.

815
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: Cautious on him.

816
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 3: But I actually have this as you know, fair value

817
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 3: shown a little bit of value on Andrews because I

818
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,879
Speaker 3: still have his touchdown rate north to forty percent. Get

819
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 3: him at plus one fifty five here going up against

820
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 3: New England should be a higher scoring game.

821
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 1: New England's one of those teams that.

822
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 3: I guess, unlike the Bengals last week, can push the

823
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 3: Ravens to have to keep the foot their foot on

824
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 3: the gas or you know, play from behind. So I

825
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 3: think Andrews here is a good bet. You know, got

826
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 3: the extension and still that lead tight end over Isaiah

827
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 3: likely and still the best bet outside of Derrick Henry

828
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 3: on the Ravens to score a touchdown. So give me

829
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 3: some Mark Andrews in what could be could turn into

830
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 3: a shootout here, Parlay Kayshawn Boody, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews,

831
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 3: you get forty three to one odds.

832
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. The Philip Rivers.

833
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 3: I mean, Anthony Richardson just got activated or activated off

834
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 3: the the IR so that's interesting. But it looks like

835
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 3: a River's gonna get another start here, Turner, who are

836
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 3: looking at for Colts Niners Monday night?

837
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Michael Pittman junior here at

838
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 4: plus three sixty. And you know, Rivers nearly helped them

839
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 4: pull off the massive upset last week, but didn't look

840
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,760
Speaker 4: like you pushed the ball down field, was only averaging

841
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 4: like four point seven yards depth of target. But I

842
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 4: expect them alan on jt here in the short passing game.

843
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 4: So if they do happen to get in the red zone,

844
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 4: I do think Pittman will be one of his top

845
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 4: targets still, So I think we're getting some decent value

846
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:51,280
Speaker 4: here at plus three sixty. His odds typically aren't this high,

847
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 4: but I'm still projecting them closer to plus two to eighty,

848
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 4: even with you know, really downgrading their passing attack overall.

849
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: Here, all right, we're looking at in Colts Niners.

850
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 6: I mean, we might be getting a little crazy here.

851
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:09,959
Speaker 6: I think I'm gonna add a second Colts touchdown.

852
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:14,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, the guy that can't throw the football because

853
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 3: he's old.

854
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 1: Let's go with another one.

855
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:18,799
Speaker 6: Well, let's go with the guy who at least has

856
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 6: a shorter average depth of target. You know, like I'm

857
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 6: gonna take Tyler Warren here, He's a round plus two

858
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 6: fifty and mainly because uh, the Niners from a weakness standpoint,

859
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 6: they have allowed a lot of touchdowns and tight ends

860
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 6: this year nine touchdowns so far, that's bottom three in

861
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 6: the NFL. He did end up actually leading the team

862
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 6: in targets, even though I think he only finished with

863
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 6: like nineteen receiving yards total.

864
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 2: So I like Tyler Warren.

865
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 6: If I had to pick between the two of pittmanh

866
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,279
Speaker 6: and Warren, I'd probably pick Warren. But again, like I

867
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 6: feel like, right now we're just asking for a lot

868
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 6: if we're gonna get two colts pasting touchdowns, so at

869
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 6: least we're not trying to like pick up Philip Rivers

870
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 6: touchdown or anything like that right now.

871
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I mean, I guess you got to

872
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 3: take his over one and a half or is it

873
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 3: gonna be like half?

874
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 1: No, what's a half?

875
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 4: Well, Riley Leonard, let's say, like, you know, Ryley Leonard

876
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 4: has to come in.

877
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 5: That'll help. We could do our show.

878
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 4: We did that for actionally one time we took like, yeah,

879
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 4: Rivers under a half passing touchdown. But you know, both

880
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:19,399
Speaker 4: players a score for like six hundred to one.

881
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 2: We need that was the other one did that too?

882
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:22,359
Speaker 5: Yeah?

883
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Derek Carr, that was the parlot. Yeah, we

884
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 4: need bry Leonard to come in and save us.

885
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 3: Man, Michael, I mean I had to go look that

886
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:31,959
Speaker 3: up because I wasn't even like Michael. Pittman's a dot

887
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 3: is eight point two. Warrens is like five point eight,

888
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 3: but eight point two is a very tight end like

889
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 3: eight apt for Pittman too, So they had, uh, both

890
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 3: of those guys are woe a dot targets. They just

891
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 3: ran a very simple offense. You know, it was essentially

892
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 3: all won one personnel I think down to the number

893
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 3: three receiver got ninety percent of the snaps and so

894
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 3: we'll see if they switch it up. But either way,

895
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:56,760
Speaker 3: you know, Philip River.

896
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 5: Alec Pearce is the one that's cooked. Alec Pearce is

897
00:43:59,120 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 5: the one.

898
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 2: That Yeah, there's no doubt field targets going for him.

899
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 1: Yeah.

900
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we think we think we've seen crazier

901
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 3: things happen like Philip Rivers starting games period.

902
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna kind of bring us back down to

903
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: earth a little bit.

904
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 3: Let's let's go with some of a little more sensible

905
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 3: Juan Jennings plus one point fifty. This guy has just

906
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 3: been on a tear and it's really coincided with Brock

907
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 3: Purdy returning to the lineup. You know, with Purdy in there,

908
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 3: Jennings has really established himself as that true number one receiver.

909
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 1: And Purty is targeting.

910
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 3: Both Jennings and George Kittle more than Matt Jones did,

911
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 3: and you know, Christian McCaffrey a little bit less. So

912
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 3: that's good news for Jennings here. That means, you know,

913
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 3: they're he's getting the ball out and his touchdown rate

914
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 3: has increased with with Purdy at the helm. So love

915
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 3: Jennings against the Coats, they are one of the worst

916
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 3: defenses against wide receivers as well. We'll see what happens

917
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 3: with with Sauce, but remember Travarious Ward, he's on ir

918
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 3: This defense is really trending down word against the pass.

919
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 3: So I think that brought Purty keeps on row in

920
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 3: here with his number one receiver, Juwan Jennings, number two

921
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 3: receiver Ricky pearsall a little bit banged up, look like

922
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 3: he escaped major injury. And then the other guys really

923
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 3: aren't factoring in Perdy. It doesn't need to get to

924
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 3: like his third read. So Robinson, Kendrick, Boor and all

925
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,879
Speaker 3: those guys aren't really getting many targets, which is good

926
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 3: because it's a very concentrated target share. Under Purdy, it's

927
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 3: just Jennings, Kittle, McCaffrey and maybe pearsall every other every

928
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 3: few games. So give me some Juwan Jennings at plus

929
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,439
Speaker 3: one point fifty. You parlay him with Mike Pittman and

930
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 3: Tyler Warren and I guess Phil Rivers, but no, just

931
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 3: those three guys, Pittman, Warren, Jennings, you get forty one

932
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 3: to one odds at DraftKings. I'm really interested to see

933
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 3: if you add a Rivers element to that, what would happen?

934
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:03,879
Speaker 3: Because I might as well here if we're going with

935
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 3: Pittman and Tower Warren. No though Warren could guess get

936
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 3: like a scheme to rush at Tempter, yeah short yard

937
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:10,439
Speaker 3: or something like that.

938
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:12,879
Speaker 1: But uh yeah, what.

939
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 6: Do we think of the odds though? Of forty one

940
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 6: to one with having two Colts touchdown scores? Because I

941
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 6: feel like, don't like it now, I'll be honest, I

942
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 6: was like, I feel like we should be getting like

943
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 6: fifty to one at least even just to get Pittman

944
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 6: and Warren, you know, have fifty to one. But you

945
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 6: know the fact that like, I still like the parlay,

946
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 6: I still think Pittman and Warren could score, but I

947
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 6: just man, like, it was just I forgot what it

948
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 6: was like to watch a Philip Rivers throat and every

949
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 6: time it comes out of his hand, you're like, okay,

950
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 6: all right, he caught it.

951
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 3: Okay, would you rather Anthony Richardson start for this, for

952
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 3: their for these for these bets?

953
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 2: No, no, I thought, no, No.

954
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: I didn't think.

955
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 5: So.

956
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 4: He still doesn't have his full vision back, so I

957
00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 4: don't think that's even possible this week.

958
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 5: May be there a couple of weeks.

959
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,800
Speaker 3: Every throw he's ever made in the NFL looked like

960
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 3: he didn't have his full vision.

961
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 4: Like like, how do you think Riley Leonard feels in

962
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 4: all this? Like he's just like chop lever right now,

963
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 4: screw screwed under dame.

964
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 3: I mean, he has to have been pretty bad in

965
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,399
Speaker 3: practice for them to be going to these measures. Yeah,

966
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 3: like first Philip Rivers off the couch, then Anthony Richardson

967
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 3: with no like you know, psychops Anthony Richardson, like this

968
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 3: is just Riley Leonard must just be throwing picks every

969
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:30,919
Speaker 3: way and he's Jeff.

970
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:33,800
Speaker 2: No, don't don't.

971
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 1: Slander draft Driscoll like that.

972
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 3: Draft Driscoll has like numerous NFL starts to his name.

973
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 3: He might have even won a game. Well, he might

974
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:43,839
Speaker 3: even want to start.

975
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 2: For a while.

976
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 4: You're you're allowed to comp a guy before he starts

977
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 4: the game, like he might not. He might not start

978
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 4: a game in his entire career, but similar type type

979
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 4: of player. He has some good rushing upside. But yeah,

980
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,799
Speaker 4: there's a reason why he's you know, not in consideration

981
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 4: right now.

982
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 3: Jeff Driscoll. I'm looking it up now. Jeff Driscoll did

983
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 3: win the game as a starter. He's one in ten

984
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 3: all time.

985
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I knew it.

986
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 3: With more touchdowns and interceptions. Twelve touchdowns, nine picks, one

987
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 3: and ten record for Jeff Driscoll beat that Riley Leonard.

988
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 5: I bet he could.

989
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 3: I would hope so, but I don't think the code.

990
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 3: I don't think I can think so, given by what's

991
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 3: going on. But that's gonna do it for us here

992
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 3: on the Action Network Touchdown Podcast. We will add these

993
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 3: anytime Touchdown parlays to the Parway Express account and the

994
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 3: Action Network Gap, so be sure to follow Parlay Express

995
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 3: if you have not already down with the Action App.

996
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 3: If you have not, and have some fun with us

997
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 3: in some of these longer shots, and while you're looking

998
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:49,839
Speaker 3: at Parway Express, be sure to sign up for Action Pro. Again,

999
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:51,760
Speaker 3: it's the only way for you to get the best

1000
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 3: bets at the best prices, with immediate notifications when Action

1001
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,800
Speaker 3: experts post their picks and the lines do move, especially

1002
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 3: some of these crazy touchdowns, so you definitely want that

1003
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:02,359
Speaker 3: Action Pro.

1004
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 1: You can also find the quick slip.

1005
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 3: Links for these bets in the podcast and video description

1006
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 3: at actionnetwork dot com slash bet now as well. That's

1007
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:15,120
Speaker 3: Gonna Do It NFL Week sixteen touchdown show here on

1008
00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast presented by Draft Kings.

1009
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: Kerner is on X at the Underscarage Maker.

1010
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 3: Joe's at g Doug five thousand, g Dawg five zero

1011
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 3: zero zero, I'm at Chris Raybaund We're at those same

1012
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,759
Speaker 3: handles on the Action App. Until next time, Let's get

1013
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 3: this money