WEBVTT - Tech Giants Lift Stocks as Trump Casts Doubt on New Tariff Pause 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.720 Weekdaily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:18.800 ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:23.760 today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:27.800 as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:31.760 Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:34.120 Hey, now to the ominous tone when it comes to 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.560 the macro. As US consumer sentiment slides to one of 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:40.400 the lowest readings on record, and his economists anticipate President 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.880 Trump's trade war makes a US recession almost a coin flip. 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:47.080 We had to Washington, DC into Bloomberg's Michael McKee. He's 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:50.440 a Bloomberg TV and Radio international economics and policy correspondent. 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:54.120 He's live in our DC bureau right now. Mike, you're 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:56.640 wrapping up the meetings that I am at. The imath 0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:00.520 I want to get from you just the general consensus, 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.800 the general tone, the vibes, for lack of a better term. 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:04.240 But before that, I. 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:05.800 Want to bring up the umish data that we got 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:07.679 earlier today and really what it told us. 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:08.720 What was the signal there? 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.000 Well, the signal is the same as it was with 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.039 the preliminary numbers. These were a little bit better, but 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:18.480 they basically say Americans don't think the economy is in 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:21.279 good shape and they're worried about where it's going from here. 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:25.360 The question always is with these sentiment surveys is do 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:27.520 they translate that into action? 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:29.200 Do they start pulling back? 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:34.000 The inflation expectations number is certainly not good, little bit 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:37.720 better by a basis point than they were in the 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:41.360 preliminary but they're still very high. And if Americans are 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:44.280 worried about prices going up and they are worried about 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.480 the economy, they might pull back on their spending. And 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:50.080 then you've got a demand problem that slows the economy 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:54.040 at a time when tariffs might be something of a 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:58.320 shock on the supply side and push up inflation. 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:00.000 And that's the nightmare scenario. 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:01.160 So you. 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:05.280 Can sort of game out bad news from this report 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:07.360 if you want to go far enough. 0:02:07.560 --> 0:02:10.280 All right, So when do you just kind of speculate 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:12.160 that it's going to turn into bad actions? I mean, 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.880 is there a reading mic that you say, Okay, we're there. 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:18.160 People are definitely holding back and it doesn't look good. 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.079 Well, you'll have to look at the consumer spending numbers, 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.160 both the retail sales numbers and of course the spending 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.320 numbers that come at the end of the month. But 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:27.399 there was a study downe a couple of years ago 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:31.919 by Danny Blanchflower, you know, well, he's an economics professor 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.560 up at Dartmouth College that shows there is a strong 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:39.800 correlation between big drops in consumer confidence and recessions. 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:41.960 And I have been at. 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.000 The other end of his emails where he's been saying lately, 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.239 I told you, and this is what's going to happen. 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:50.919 So we shall see if that does indeed prove out. 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:54.040 Okay, I promised we'd talk about the vibes don in Washington. 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:56.440 You've been there the entire week. I'm sure the weather 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:59.880 has been great, spring like nice in Washington right now. 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:01.560 What about the vibes though? 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:04.720 What's the takeaway from the Spring IMF meetings and really 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.040 everyone that you've run into, everyone you've heard from. 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:09.760 I think everybody just wants to get out of this town. 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:15.400 As the talk, as you say, no matter what comes up, 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:19.360 it all ends up back on tariffs and what the 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:22.200 US role in the global economy is going to be 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:27.000 going forward. And the problem for everybody besides just the 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:31.960 basics of tariffs are bad for economics, is that the 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:35.760 uncertainty caused by the presidents waffling around on tariffs and 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:39.960 what they're going to be is really paralyzed everybody. Countries 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:42.960 are trying to figure out how they can defend themselves 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:47.040 and the protect their economies from tariffs, but they don't 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.040 know what the tariffs are actually going to be, what 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:52.040 they'll be applied upon, when they'll be applied. So it's 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:54.360 very hard for anyone to get a clear idea of 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:56.840 where we go from here. And of course we're all 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.760 in this echo chamber where that's all what gets talked about. 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.560 I think people may be glad when this event is over. 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:05.800 Well that's interesting too, Like I do wonder when the 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:09.160 echo chamber, like we just kind of are in this vacuum, 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:13.960 we're like bad, bad, bad. Having said that, Bloomberg did 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:18.480 their own survey of economists and they basically are saying 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:20.120 a couple of things. They say, the US economy set 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:22.800 to expand one point four percent this year, what and 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.720 a half percent next year? Not great compared with two 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:28.359 percent one point nine percent in the last month's poll, 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:32.000 the median respondent now sees a forty five percent chance 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:33.960 of a downturn in the next twelve months. That's up 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:37.240 from thirty percent in March. You're the expert here. I 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:39.839 know it's all just numbers. I know it's just a survey, 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:42.919 but you go back a few months, we really weren't 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:45.719 talking us recession, and now it's part of the narrative. 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:50.280 Yeah, I feel like we're playing family feud here. The 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:54.479 survey reflects basically the feeling on Wall Street and among 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:59.320 almost all economists that a recession is not necessarily likely, 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:02.120 but the odds of it have gone up significantly, and 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:04.400 a lot of it is going to depend on what 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:09.920 consumers do. We also see the beginnings of a real 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.039 slowdown in business investment. We saw that in some of 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:15.880 the categories of durable goods. We had a big durable 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:20.839 goods number yesterday based on Boeing sales, but machinery sales, 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:26.680 machinery orders, computer orders, things like that fell during the month. 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:29.440 So if businesses are pulling back, and FED officials tell 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:31.960 us that that's what they're hearing as well, then the 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:36.000 odds go up significantly that recession could occur. 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:38.360 It wouldn't take much to tip us into what. 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:40.360 How big of a grain of salt should we take 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:43.440 surveys or not surveys such as this, but what economists 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:46.039 think will happen. And I think back to what two 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.480 three years ago at this point, Mike, when pretty much 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:51.120 everyone was saying we'd be in recession and that didn't 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:51.839 end up happening. 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:56.280 Well, I think the difference this time is economists know 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.200 that this is sort of an impossible situation to be in. 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:01.480 And I've talked to a lot of them this week 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.440 who all say that I'm lucky because I get to 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.479 be an economist who doesn't have to make a forecast. 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.520 They get paid, they get paid for making forecasts, and 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:13.520 they don't have a whole lot of good data to 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:16.800 make a forecast upon, so it's very difficult for them 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:20.799 to know whether this forty five percent is a good 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:25.040 strong number or not. I think as we go along 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:28.520 and get more hard data, they'll refine their views. But 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:31.400 for right now, I think they're being They're just being 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:35.080 cautious because the odds are the story is lining up 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:37.880 that we could go into recession, but it doesn't necessarily 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:39.160 mean that's going to happen. 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:41.200 Right, and at least putting out some numbers, right, They're 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:42.800 not saying well, we could go this way or we 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:44.120 go this way. I mean, it's like kind of an 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:47.599 interesting environment, as you know with corporate earnings, where we're 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:51.000 getting some CEOs or some c suite. We keep bringing 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:52.880 up United Airlines, but I think there's a few others 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:54.480 where are saying well, it could go this way, or 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.159 it could go this way, depending on the tariffs and 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:01.520 depending on the US economy. Mike the Fed speak, you 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:05.360 caught up with Fed Governor Waller. I'm just curious how 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:07.239 you were thinking about what we were hearing. We're getting 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:09.360 ready to go right into a quiet period when it 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:11.320 comes to the FED as well. 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:13.360 Yeah, this is going to be an uneventful one and 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:17.200 an uneventful FED meeting because they don't know they're not going. 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:18.880 To make any change at the main meeting. 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:21.440 The question then becomes how fast do we get enough 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:25.600 data for them to make a decision. Waller said that 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:28.520 he wouldn't expect anything until we get June data, which 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:29.760 comes out in July. 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:31.960 Which would put the next move. 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:34.800 Perhaps it wouldn't be in June, it would be maybe 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:38.480 the July thirtieth meeting, or even September seventeenth, and I 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:42.240 think that Waller is leaning towards the fall before you 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:47.040 have enough data to show what's going on, because companies 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:49.640 are going to move slowly on all of this. If 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:53.239 their input prices don't go shooting up, but just start 0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:55.520 to rise, maybe they'll eat a little bit of it to. 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:56.960 Keep share of business. 0:07:57.280 --> 0:08:00.000 And if the economy slows, they may be a little 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.400 more reluctant to let people go because it was so 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:05.320 hard to find them before. So we'll have to see 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:08.120 how the data play out. They know they'll be behind 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.440 the curve, but there isn't much else they can do 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:11.720 about it at this point. 0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:14.720 We got anecdotes from the Beige Book this week. We 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:17.840 know the data that the Federal Reserve looks at as 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:19.400 they go into their quiet period. 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:20.760 How do they look though. 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:22.720 At company earnings? Because we're going to hear from some 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:26.360 big ones next week. Are they watching what companies like 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:29.960 large megacap tech public companies are telling investors? 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:34.359 Sure, And of course they're always talking to the CEOs 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:37.959 of companies, especially the bank presidents in their districts. They 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:41.120 don't particularly care I think about what the earnings per 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:45.200 share is, but the guidance is what's giving the Fed 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:47.280 some kind of clue as to what's going on. And 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.680 when you have what Delta and American pulled their guidance, 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:55.920 and you mentioned United setting up two scenario guidance that 0:08:56.840 --> 0:08:58.600 suggests that the businesses are. 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:00.600 Going to sit on the sidelines for a while. 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.840 And if that's the case, then the economy slows because 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:05.720 it doesn't get the stimulus from investment. 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:09.160 Are we seeing any shift? Next week is a big 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.640 week when it comes to the job market, right, we 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:14.480 get the monthly read from the government on Friday, That's 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:16.200 what we'll be talking about one week from now, and 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:17.720 then we get obviously some lead. 0:09:17.600 --> 0:09:21.360 Ups to jolts action coming earlier, a little. 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.000 Bit of other stuff. So I am how important is 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:27.160 it when I feel like it's almost getting to the point. Yes, 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:29.440 we know the Fed obviously is on inflation watch, but 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.559 people are kind of maybe debating are they gonna have 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:35.600 to start watching the labor market more for signs of weakness, 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:39.480 signs of growth slowing down? So I'm just curious how 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:41.680 important the numbers are next week. I know they're always important, 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:43.240 but are they a little bit more important. 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:47.160 Next week, I think it'll be a little more interesting, 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.079 but not necessarily more important. You know, Chris Waller said 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:53.320 yesterday to me that he thinks that unemployment is going 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:55.600 to be a more important indicator of where the economy 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:59.000 is going than inflation, because his belief is inflation's a 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.920 one time move, but if you start seeing people getting 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.000 laid off, that tends to pick up speed. The thing 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:10.040 about this week coming up the April numbers is we 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:13.800 don't have a clear picture of how the job cuts 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:17.920 the president has forced on the federal government are playing out. 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:18.120 Yet. 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:21.040 We don't really know how many people have been fired. 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:23.040 I'm not sure all the people who've been fired know 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:27.160 they've been fired. And we don't have a great idea 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:31.200 yet of what the spillover into the contracting world is now. 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.800 So there should be some impact, It should be noticeable, 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:36.559 but is it going to be big enough to make 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:37.240 a difference. 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:38.600 Probably not. 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:42.720 And the longer term, immigration has come to a stop, 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:45.440 and so the labor market should start to fall, which 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:49.520 changes the denominator on the unemployment rate and could keep 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:52.800 the unemployment rate from moving up as quickly. So this 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:56.400 week or this coming week, it'll be interesting to see 0:10:56.720 --> 0:10:58.840 what clues we get out of this, But it won't 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:01.000 be determinative it anyway, because they're not going to move 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:02.120 in May. 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.040 Mike, just twenty seconds, Tourston slockout with the note today 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:08.240 about US trade between China and China, trade between China 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.680 and the US collapsing, could see empty shells COVID, Like, 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:12.760 how big of a deal would that be if that happens? 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:13.760 Just twenty seconds. 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:16.320 Oh, if that happens, that'll be a big deal because 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.600 that's the kind of thing that Americans notice right away, 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.840 not only prices, but the availability of goods. 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:24.240 So that's something to be concerned about. 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:27.520 We'll see if the numbers continue on those container ships 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:27.920 coming in. 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.360 Yep, funny, not funny. The hunt for toilet paper and 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:33.400 so much more. We all remember it all too, Michael mcgae. 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:35.320 You Ward in the basement. I know that about you. 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:37.280 So we're all going over to the masterhousehold if we 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:37.959 run out of TP. 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:41.760 Michael McKee he is, of course TV and radio international 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:44.680 Economics and Policy correspondent, coming up, the CFO of Huntington 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:45.280 Bank Shares. 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:50.360 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast Catch us 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.440 Live Weekday afternoons from two to five These during listen 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:57.040 on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:59.520 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:03.079 Huntington Bank Shares reported earnings last week, some analyst noting 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:05.920 how the regional bank based in Ohio seemed to be 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:09.280 more optimistic about growth than its peers for the first quarter, 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.920 the bank being on earnings and interest margin and more. 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:16.000 It also approved a one billion dollar share buy back. 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:19.280 The stock rally three percent on that release, but the 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:22.360 stock overall year to date is down about eleven percent. 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:26.200 In our weekly check in on cfo's chief financial officers 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:30.080 back with us as Zach Wasserman. He's Senior executive VPCFO 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:32.840 of Huntington Bank Shares. It is the holding company of 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:36.439 the consumer and business regional bank, Huntington National Bank. It's 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:38.520 got locations and a handful of states we'd like to 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:41.440 remind you Ohio, Minnesota, North and South Carolina, and a 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:44.920 few more. And Zach joining us from Columbus, Ohio. Also 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.400 with us is Nita Trentman, senior editor at Bloomberg News, 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.080 the author of the CFO Briefing Newsletter, which you can 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:54.040 get at Bloomberg dot com. Slash CFO briefing. It comes 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:57.120 out a new one every Sunday, and Zach is among 0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.800 those featured in the newsletter out on Sunday. Zach, you know, welcome. 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:02.319 Good to have you both, Zach, We want to get 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.839 right to it. Great to have you here. I think 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:08.280 we talked with you in about mid March last go round, 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:12.200 and that was before so called Liberation Day. What's changed 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:14.880 as a result of what we've got from the White 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:20.000 House and the volatility and uncertainty that has followed. 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:22.400 Yeah, well, it's triving to be back with you, and 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.600 certainly it's been an eventful first start of the start 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:29.000 of the second quarter here, but for us, it's continued 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:32.000 business as usual for the most part. We had, as 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.320 you noted, a really strong first quarter. It was, frankly, 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:37.760 in my finance career, within the top five of any 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.240 quarter I've ever been a part of. You know, Revenues 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:43.199 growing ten percent, earnings per share up twenty percent, with 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:47.120 really strong customer acquisition trends, and great credit quality. So 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.040 a lot of momentum actually carrying into the second quarter, 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:52.520 you know, without being said. One of the ways we 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:56.840 characterized the sentiment right now on our earnings call was 0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:00.720 cautious optimism. You know, certainly more uncertain the today than 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.960 was the case earlier in the year. With that being said, 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.160 we're still seeing growth, you know. Indication of that is 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:12.600 loan pipelines. Our forward projection of likely loan closings actually 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:16.080 higher in the first two weeks of the second quarter 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:17.800 here from the from the end of the first quarter. 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:22.240 So still seeing that come through, notwithstanding a bit more uncertainty, 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:22.880 for sure. 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.240 Given that you have a regional focus, what would you 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:28.680 say is the biggest potential impact from tariff policy on 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.440 your business? We talk about some of the bigger banks, 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.840 and certainly you know that the issues around M and 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:36.760 A and sort of a pause when it comes to 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:40.280 IPOs that have been pulled that affects their capital markets business. 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:43.040 But that's not necessarily where where you guys are playing. 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.200 What are the biggest risks based on what's happening in 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:46.480 Washington to your business. 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:47.320 It's a great question. 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:49.400 It's a great question, Tim, and I think you know, 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:52.520 for the most part, it is the uncertainty itself. You know, 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:57.520 we're seeing somewhat delays in the decision making process that 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:01.680 affects loan activity in our regional bank, for example. I 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.400 was just talking with our key executive there mentioned that 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.520 the loan closing process is taking about six days longer, 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.320 about ten percent longer maybe than would historically have been 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.160 the case. We're seeing some of our segments that are 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:17.320 that really service companies who are keyed to durable goods, 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.560 particularly those that you know where they have a foreign 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:24.560 supply chain, that we're seeing some impacts in. We do 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:28.040 have an m and a advisory business that supports middle market, 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:31.720 largely private companies, and we're seeing somewhat slower deal closing 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.800 process there. So you know, we're seeing to some to 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:38.520 read those impacts and that if that uncertainty continues, we 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:42.440 would expect to see that those impacts continue and probably magnify. 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:46.200 So absolutely we'd like to see a resolution of some 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:48.560 of these uncertainty. With that being said, as I know, 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:52.400 even my first answer, we are seeing generally growth. You know, 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.160 loans for us into the first quarter grew two percent 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:57.480 from the end of last year, and our forecast for 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:00.320 Q two the quarter in right now is we're one 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.360 to two percent growth. So overall still seeing growth, but 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:07.040 at the margin, you know, some of those impacts I'm Zach. 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.840 To follow up on that. One of the themes in 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:13.400 the upcoming edition of the briefing will be controlling the controllables, 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:15.280 which is a theme that is coming up in many 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:18.760 earning scolls that we're seeing these days, coming in wondering 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.400 from your perspective, like, if you're looking at your business, 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.960 what are the items that you can actually control? 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.480 Yeah, it's a great question, Nina, and I think, you know, 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:30.240 I think one of the things that's critical for us, 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:33.560 and to some degree, situations like this really reveal which 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:37.200 companies are managed the most rigorously. And we always think 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:41.560 about multiple scenarios and scenario planning with contingent actions, and 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.720 so to some degree, you know, this scenario that's playing 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:47.120 out right now is part and partial to the way 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.520 we manage the company all the time, always thinking about 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.280 what could potentially come to pass and how we'll pull 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:55.280 the levers of the business to maintain you know, strong 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:58.200 relative performance in any of them. With that being said, 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.840 you know, I always think about three things. Firstly, the 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:06.639 key pillars of financial strength for the bank, capital, liquidity, 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:10.440 and credit, and uh, you know, those are the things 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.000 that under all circumstances we want to have strength in 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:15.920 and you know, in an environment like this, we we 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.320 know how we will operate to maintain those those areas 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:23.159 of strength. Now, the second is the growth orientation of 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:25.479 the firm. What are the goals that we're putting out 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:28.439 to the organization. Where do we want folks focused, and 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:32.520 what's the pace of our investments into key growth initiatives. 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:34.760 And then the last thing is how can we be 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:39.240 consistent with our customer base. You know, fundamentally one of 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:41.919 the most important things for a bank is to be 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:45.720 there for the for our customers through all cycles. And 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:50.440 so for us that consistency of customer interaction, consistency of underwriting, 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.040 and really making sure that for the customers we're always 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:54.520 there to support them. 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:57.240 Right, Just wondering, actually you pointed out the importance of 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:00.600 credit and liquidity in the current situation. If we go 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:04.160 back a few weeks time, basically, ever since the April 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:06.640 two terrorifts were announced, we've seen a strong sell off 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:10.639 in US assets. We've seen investors questioning sort of the 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.600 stability of the US financial system, and we're also seeing 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:18.280 corrects emerging around institutions here in the US with with 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.919 questions around the rule of law. Do you process so 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:24.359 I'm wondering from a from a CFO perspective, how do 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:27.960 you think about those impacts to your business now and 0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:29.760 also for the longer term. 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.680 Yeah, it's a it's a great question. Look, I think 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.399 to some degree, we see ourselves as a as a 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:38.919 bastion of strength at times when there is those kind 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:41.800 of uncertainties, you can count on us. As I know 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.600 it just just a minute ago. Our decision making criteria 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:46.200 are going to be are we going to be consistent? 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:50.000 We're there to provide advice and counsel to our to 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:52.640 our customers. IM it's this time. I mean, to some degree, 0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:56.800 this actually is a time that that bankers relish. And 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.600 don't get me wrong, no one wants uncertainty and potential 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:03.320 challenges to the economic environment. But this is the time 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:06.919 when we really prove our worth to our customers. We 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.880 help them think through how are they going to address 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:14.119 potential challenges to their supply chain, how are they going 0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:17.680 to continue to address the level of interest rates which 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:22.280 have clearly risen it And if inflation does re emerge 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:25.000 and begin to reaccelerate, how are they going to address that? 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.280 So it really is a sort of go back to 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:30.879 the core focus on customers, focus on their best interests, 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:34.960 and really help them to be ready amongst this potential uncertainty. 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:36.640 Hey, one thing I want to ask you, just to 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:40.879 follow up Zach on Nina's question, and especially when it 0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:42.840 comes to the rule of law, we are living in 0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:45.720 an environment where it's being tested. We're seeing a consolidation 0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.000 of power by the president in the White House. We 0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:50.440 have a story this morning that is among our most 0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:52.720 read on the Bloomberg about a state judge in Wisconsin 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:56.240 arrested by federal agents after an investigation into whether she 0:19:56.280 --> 0:20:00.919 obstructed officials trying to detain an undocumented in and I 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:03.600 guess whether that was legal or illegal. The point is, 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:07.119 we're living in a very different at this point, it 0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:09.520 feels like the United States of America. So how do 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:12.959 you think about it As a CFO. We're looking to 0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:16.240 our leaders trying to understand the way forward, and how 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:18.280