Speaker 1: Consequences are coming right quick, with missile firings in the
Speaker 1: East China see and now supposedly military operations surrounding Taiwan.
Speaker 2: In the last few days, China flew seventy two airplanes
Speaker 2: across the midline of the Taiwan Straight.
Speaker 3: How would the world respond if China invaded Taiwan? That
Speaker 3: question is increasingly on the minds of leaders around the world.
Speaker 3: President Biden said last year that the United States would
Speaker 3: consider using military force to defend Taiwan.
Speaker 4: Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan
Speaker 4: if it comes to that, Yes, you are.
Speaker 5: That's the commitment we made.
Speaker 3: That drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which sees Taiwan
Speaker 3: not as an independent entity but a part of China
Speaker 3: that will one day be united with the mainland. The
Speaker 3: terms of Taiwan's relationship with China is the central issue
Speaker 3: in the closely watched presidential campaign underway there. The front
Speaker 3: runner right now among several candidates is Taiwan's current Vice
Speaker 3: president le Chinda of the Democratic Progressive Party It's known
Speaker 3: as the DPP. Lai is hoping to succeed president, saying
Speaker 3: when she can't run again because of term limits. He's
Speaker 3: taken a firmer stance on Taiwan's independence than some of
Speaker 3: the other candidates.
Speaker 5: We are willing to cooperate with China to advance peace
Speaker 5: and prosperity. However, antier China relong states the force against Taiwan.
Speaker 5: We must strengthen our military capacity and stand shoulder to
Speaker 5: shoulder which democracies to effectively deter the traits from China.
Speaker 3: That's lie. Speaking to Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Joel Weber, he
Speaker 3: recently sat down with the Vice president for several wide
Speaker 3: ranging interviews in Taiwan.
Speaker 1: That's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve this
Speaker 1: democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of its
Speaker 1: prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 3: Joel and Bloomberg's deputy Taipei Bureau chief, Cindy Wang, are
Speaker 3: here with me to talk about what's at stake for
Speaker 3: Taiwan and the heavy burden the next president will face.
Speaker 3: I'm west Kosova today on the big take an election
Speaker 3: for Taiwan's future. Cindy, There's this very important presidential election
Speaker 3: coming up in Taiwan, and of course all presidential elections
Speaker 3: are important, but this one seems to have extra significance.
Speaker 3: Why are people paying so close attention to this one?
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right. I think when people talk about Taiwan
Speaker 6: these days, the first question that comes to people's mind
Speaker 6: would be where there be a war across the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 6: So the key question that everybody wants to note about
Speaker 6: Taiwan is how it's going to handle China. And well,
Speaker 6: China probably invade Taiwan sometime and that concerns everybody, especially
Speaker 6: because Taiwan is the very important tech cup that has
Speaker 6: this world famous se conductor industry. So I think this
Speaker 6: election is especially important because it's all about war, and
Speaker 6: that's also what many people in Taiwan are worried about
Speaker 6: right now. So people here are also anxious to know
Speaker 6: whether the next president of Taiwan will be able to
Speaker 6: handle the tricky relationship with China and how he can
Speaker 6: or she can help Taiwan reduce the risk of war.
Speaker 6: And right now it looks like the ruling party DPP's
Speaker 6: presidential candidate lighting that he's a front runner and most
Speaker 6: of the polls now and if DPB wings again, it
Speaker 6: would be the first time in Taiwan that a political
Speaker 6: party could govern for a third term, and that would
Speaker 6: probably mean more people in Taiwan now see themselves as
Speaker 6: a Taiwanese and that's going to send a very strong
Speaker 6: signal to China because there is a risk that China's
Speaker 6: nationalism will be so high that it could increase the
Speaker 6: chance of a war across the strait.
Speaker 3: Jolis Cindy said, the current vice president, like Chanda, is
Speaker 3: the front runner in the race, and you went to
Speaker 3: Taiwan to go speak to him, tell us about him.
Speaker 1: Well, I can't imagine a more complicated geopolitical situation than
Speaker 1: the one that's in Taiwan. And I think coming to
Speaker 1: the situation from the US, there's this outsider vibe that
Speaker 1: I think I brought to it, which was I'm just
Speaker 1: going to drop into this place and I just expected
Speaker 1: there to be this cloud of China that was over everything.
Speaker 1: It was actually kind of surprised that that's not how
Speaker 1: it felt. It felt like everyone going about their normal
Speaker 1: lives and then all of a sudden there would be
Speaker 1: reminders of that presence. And I think Lie actually is
Speaker 1: a pretty good embodiment of that. He's an incredibly calm,
Speaker 1: mild mannered or at least that's what he wants to project.
Speaker 1: He was a doctor originally and entered politics actually in
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety six and has sort of risen through the
Speaker 1: Taiwanese political apparatus as a member of the DPP, which
Speaker 1: has always been pro Taiwan, pro democracy. So he views
Speaker 1: himself as really a democratic candidate. And as much as
Speaker 1: we want to talk about war and this war sentiment,
Speaker 1: and that is one of the defining elements of this
Speaker 1: I think presidential election, he will frame it around democracy
Speaker 1: and that he wants to be a continuity candidate with
Speaker 1: the previous administration, which obviously he's the vice president of.
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of questions that accompany that because
Speaker 1: he has a very interesting backstory, and again it speaks
Speaker 1: to how complicated of a geopolitical situation Taiwan represents.
Speaker 3: Cindy. What does it mean when we say that Lie
Speaker 3: wants to be a continuity candidate.
Speaker 6: So Vice person Lai has been known for his provocative
Speaker 6: comments in the past. He's known to the Taiwanese public
Speaker 6: as a strong advocate for Taiwan independence. So that's the
Speaker 6: impression that he left to most people in Taiwan here.
Speaker 6: So he has this kind of track record. He said
Speaker 6: many times in the past that he would be like
Speaker 6: a pragmatic independence worker. Things like that, and that kind
Speaker 6: of provocative comments.
Speaker 4: Really worried people and worry Beijing and US as well
Speaker 4: as people are worried that he may try to change
Speaker 4: the status quo, and that's something that nobody has a
Speaker 4: stake with Taiwan would like to see at a moment.
Speaker 6: So soli Is now has a very very important task.
Speaker 6: Is he has to prove to everyone, to the US,
Speaker 6: to China and even to people in Taiwan that he
Speaker 6: is going to be a very steady pair of hands.
Speaker 6: He will not change the status quo. He has to
Speaker 6: maintain the status quote that Present Thai has maintained over
Speaker 6: the past almost eight years. So we asked him during
Speaker 6: our sitdown interview with him, whether there would be a
Speaker 6: romance to Taiwan independence, whether he would consider change the
Speaker 6: name of Taiwan. So his answers to all those questions
Speaker 6: are no, there isn't going to be any change. Currently
Speaker 6: the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China,
Speaker 6: and he said because Present Thai has used the name
Speaker 6: Republic of China Taiwan to unite the Taiwanese people, and
Speaker 6: that's the name he will continue to use.
Speaker 3: Joels Cindi says, people watch very carefully how Liai describes Taiwan,
Speaker 3: and China certainly does too, and that's true of everyone.
Speaker 3: The way talks about itself, The way China describes Taiwan
Speaker 3: is really at the heart of this whole question.
Speaker 1: Right, and there's this status quo that a lot of
Speaker 1: the parties involved are trying to maintain, and everyone watches
Speaker 1: their words very carefully, me included me most of all. Actually,
Speaker 1: probably right when you read about this stuff, you got
Speaker 1: to be exacting and that was reflected actually in my
Speaker 1: interviews with Lai. He speaks decent English, but he actually
Speaker 1: chose to speak mainly in Chinese, I think out of caution, basically,
Speaker 1: to be super mindful of the words that were coming
Speaker 1: out of his mouth. There are a couple of times
Speaker 1: that he opted to speak in English, but I think
Speaker 1: default setting for him was in Chinese because of the
Speaker 1: importance of getting his message right. And that shows you
Speaker 1: what the stakes really look like here. So what really
Speaker 1: comes down to here is Taiwan in the eyes of
Speaker 1: Beijing is viewed as a breakaway province and under this
Speaker 1: one Chin a policy that has become sort of the
Speaker 1: driving principle of beijing geopolitical goals. They view everything Taiwan
Speaker 1: included as part of a greater China and will be
Speaker 1: absorbed at a future date. What that future date is,
Speaker 1: no one really knows. Taiwan wants it to be never
Speaker 1: and wants the status quo to remain where they are
Speaker 1: a democratically independent sovereign entity. So that's the ultimate tension
Speaker 1: here is can Taiwan preserve this democratic DNA that has
Speaker 1: really been the foundation of its prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 6: I think status quo is really the key thing here.
Speaker 6: I think every party which has a stake in Taiwan
Speaker 6: all wants to preserve this status quo, although they may
Speaker 6: have different interpretation about the status quo. Some polls in
Speaker 6: Taiwan show that at least three fours of Taiwan's popular
Speaker 6: supports status quo. They don't want to be independent, they
Speaker 6: don't want to unification with China either, but they want
Speaker 6: the status quo to go on. Since US and Taiwan
Speaker 6: cut ties about like four decades ago, so US switched
Speaker 6: ties to Beijing and recognized Beijing is China, and then
Speaker 6: from that moment on US stop recognizing Taiwan as a
Speaker 6: sovereign country. Instead, there is an ambiguity that acknowledged that
Speaker 6: China's idea that there is only one China and that's
Speaker 6: represented by People's Republic of China. But it just leaves
Speaker 6: the entity of Taiwan undecided. So that's the tricky thing
Speaker 6: about the US One China policy. So even though US
Speaker 6: President Joe Biden has that four times that it would
Speaker 6: defend Taiwan, this ambiguity that US officially didn't recognize Taiwan
Speaker 6: as a country, so it can't really call Taiwan as
Speaker 6: a nation.
Speaker 1: I think the other thing to keep in mind there
Speaker 1: is it's almost like everything just feels like it's on
Speaker 1: a hair trigger, and what everyone is fearful of is provoking,
Speaker 1: and what I think Beijing does is attempt to continue
Speaker 1: to push the envelope. There's a medium line in the
Speaker 1: middle of the Taiwan's rate. They've crossed it. They've fired
Speaker 1: missiles over Taiwan, They've done a partial naval blockade in
Speaker 1: response to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit a year ago.
Speaker 1: So all of these things sort of challenge the status quo,
Speaker 1: and the moment that Taiwan or the US were to
Speaker 1: respond in a way that might be a little too impulsive.
Speaker 1: For instance, Beijing will use that as an indication of
Speaker 1: change to the status quo and maybe escalate the situation.
Speaker 3: Joel, you asked Lie how Taiwan feels about the support
Speaker 3: it gets from the rest of the world.
Speaker 1: Do you feel that the international community treats Taiwan justly?
Speaker 5: I sing so. I sing so because Taiwan security is
Speaker 5: a globo yishu and the piece in the Indo Pacific
Speaker 5: region benefit all the country.
Speaker 1: I think that answer reflects just how complicated of a
Speaker 1: situation Taiwan's in with its diplomatic relationships around the world.
Speaker 1: There are official allies that Taiwan has thirteen of them,
Speaker 1: thirteen countries recognized Taiwan as a country and an ally,
Speaker 1: but that number is dwindled in recent years as China's
Speaker 1: flipped a couple of them, and right now, actually Vice
Speaker 1: President Lae is in transit through the US to visit
Speaker 1: an official ally Paraguay. Paraguay happens to be a supplier
Speaker 1: of beef to Taiwan. If you go to Taipei or
Speaker 1: anywhere in Taiwan. Beef noodle soup is one of the
Speaker 1: dishes that is phenomenal. A lot of the beef in
Speaker 1: beef noodle soup comes from Paraguay. That gives you a
Speaker 1: sense of what they're going to talk about when live
Speaker 1: shows up. Is like the importance of this relationship between
Speaker 1: Paraguay and Taiwan. Right, But to go through the US,
Speaker 1: he can't have a round trip ticket that puts him
Speaker 1: in the US. He has to transit through here to
Speaker 1: get to Paraguay. So he goes through New York on
Speaker 1: the way and then he goes through San Francisco on
Speaker 1: the way back. And that's all not to inflame China.
Speaker 1: So all of these diplomatic relationships that Taiwan has comes
Speaker 1: down to this sensitivities with China. And there's these official
Speaker 1: allies that Taiwan has, but there's also these unofficial ones.
Speaker 1: And part of what the current administration President Sai with
Speaker 1: Vice President Lai have done is really tried to lean
Speaker 1: into this informal, unofficial friendship of like minded democracies they'll
Speaker 1: call it. So Japan is a huge part of that.
Speaker 1: Australia is a part of that. South Korea could be
Speaker 1: part of that. And then looking at Europe, which has
Speaker 1: suddenly looked to Taiwan because of Ukraine, I think to say, wow,
Speaker 1: here's a place that we should also be supporting. And
Speaker 1: then of course the US. So there's this patchwork quilt
Speaker 1: that Taiwan hopes has its back, and as you say,
Speaker 1: Lie has to transit through the US bocanically stop there.
Speaker 3: Like you would never see the president or vice president
Speaker 3: of Taiwan visiting Joe Biden at the White House.
Speaker 1: Not only would you not see Lie visiting DC, you
Speaker 1: won't see the president or the Vice president go to Taiwan.
Speaker 1: And that's why when former Speaker of the House Nancy
Speaker 1: Pelosi showed up, it escalated the situation, and I think
Speaker 1: a year later, we're still in the aftermath of that,
Speaker 1: and that's one of the reasons why everyone's watching this election.
Speaker 3: More from Joel's interview with Lie when we come back, Joel,
Speaker 3: we've been talking about how carefully everyone speaks about the
Speaker 3: relationship between Taiwan in China, and Lie has really pushed
Speaker 3: those boundaries a little bit. When you talk to him,
Speaker 3: how did he talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China.
Speaker 1: So I think the foundation of Lie's candidacy and what
Speaker 1: he says in the interview is really about this idea
Speaker 1: of maintaining the status quo. And because he is this
Speaker 1: continuity candidate, he's the current vice president, the current president.
Speaker 1: President sign can't run because of term liaments, so he's
Speaker 1: continuing the DPP's policies, which is basically, we're willing to
Speaker 1: have a dialogue with Beijing. The door is open, only
Speaker 1: Beijing doesn't see it that way. Beijing, as an opening
Speaker 1: bid to any conversation, would want Taiwan to recognize that
Speaker 1: it is part of Greater China, and that is a
Speaker 1: non starter for Lie. And it also speaks to sort
Speaker 1: of how fractured the rest of this race looks like
Speaker 1: and what the opposition parties might be willing to do.
Speaker 3: And you spoke to Lii about this, and here's what
Speaker 3: he had to say.
Speaker 7: Well, Jensa, this election is about choosing between two roads.
Speaker 7: One way is to continue engaging and cooperating closely with
Speaker 7: the international community while deepening our democracy. The other choice
Speaker 7: is to accept the one China principle and stand together
Speaker 7: with China. I believe the US will continue to support
Speaker 7: us on the first path one means.
Speaker 6: So Lie is talking about, of course, the US, and
Speaker 6: he believes that US will want him to continue the
Speaker 6: path to work with the international community, including the US,
Speaker 6: while the opposition candidates would probably go down to the
Speaker 6: other side. They wanted to increase the dialogue and exchanges
Speaker 6: with China. So the key issue for this present election
Speaker 6: is about how people should decide how Taiwan should deal
Speaker 6: with China going forward.
Speaker 3: Joe, when you spoke to lie about how he would
Speaker 3: lead the country, what did he say? What is his platform?
Speaker 1: Well, there's a formal answer to that which has got
Speaker 1: these four principles that are effectively speak to how he
Speaker 1: will continue president size policies. I think the foundation, though,
Speaker 1: is that he really wants to have Taiwan as a democracy.
Speaker 5: I have the confidence that if we go on the
Speaker 5: right path to strengthen our sybil and national defense capability
Speaker 5: and extend shoulder to shoulder with democracies, I think we
Speaker 5: will go through this complicated situation. And I always say
Speaker 5: peace is our destination, democracy is our campus. We have two.
Speaker 5: We have no choice to navigate brevity through this complicated situation.
Speaker 1: I mean he won best legislator in Taiwan when he
Speaker 1: was on a more local level. And the foundation of
Speaker 1: the DPP is this is a democracy right. So part
Speaker 1: of how this election is being framed is that Lie
Speaker 1: says voting for me is voting for democracy. The opposition
Speaker 1: candidates will say, if you're voting for Lie, you're voting
Speaker 1: for war. If you're voting for us, you're voting for peace.
Speaker 1: And so those are sort of the ultimate tensions that
Speaker 1: are kind of playing out here.
Speaker 3: And what does he say about those charges that vote
Speaker 3: for him is a vote for war.
Speaker 1: He does not want to provoke China full stop. So
Speaker 1: for him, he wants to be ready to defend and
Speaker 1: he said that to us. One element of that is
Speaker 1: that the current administration has extended conscription, which in Taiwan
Speaker 1: had been four months. So if you're an adult male,
Speaker 1: you had to do a four month tour of duty
Speaker 1: with the military. That's been extended to a year. That's
Speaker 1: been controversial because it speaks to the fact that Taiwan
Speaker 1: needs to be able to defend itself. And one of
Speaker 1: the things, like us is we would want the US
Speaker 1: to come to our back, but we need to be
Speaker 1: able to defend ourselves.
Speaker 5: We don't want to be enemies. We can be throwned
Speaker 5: and we love to see China can enjoy democracy and
Speaker 5: freedom just like us as long as layo is parity
Speaker 5: and dignity, although is always open. We are willing to
Speaker 5: cooperate with China to advance peace and prosperity. However, a
Speaker 5: tier China relungstates the force against Taiwan. We must strengthen
Speaker 5: our mini try capacity and the stand shoulder to shoulder
Speaker 5: with democracies to effectively deter the straits from China and
Speaker 5: to secure stability in the inter Pacific region.
Speaker 6: So Light previously said that to avoid war, Talan has
Speaker 6: to be prepared for war. So I think people here
Speaker 6: usually cite soon that's ancient Chinese military strategy saying that
Speaker 6: the best strategy would be to stop your enemy from
Speaker 6: doing anything stupid.
Speaker 4: So that's why.
Speaker 6: Not only just why, but also the KNT and the
Speaker 6: opposition candidates as well. They all support the idea that
Speaker 6: talent should be fat the deterrence so that that could
Speaker 6: stop China from having the idea to invade Taiwan and
Speaker 6: also have to let China think twice about the massive
Speaker 6: consequence they may have. Should one day they wanted to
Speaker 6: invade Taiwan. Joe.
Speaker 3: We've talked about how Taiwan's chip making capability is one
Speaker 3: of its most important assets and one of the things
Speaker 3: that the rest of the world would potentially want to
Speaker 3: protect if China decided to move in. But TSMC, the
Speaker 3: big chip maker, is now building plants in the US.
Speaker 3: Is that considered a good thing or a bad thing
Speaker 3: for Taiwan's security?
Speaker 1: That is a strategic imperative for the US. If all
Speaker 1: of the world's advanced chip making resides solely in Taiwan
Speaker 1: and there were an escalation of tensions in Taiwan or
Speaker 1: just open warfare, the world could be set back years.
Speaker 1: I mean, we take away these chips, you're living in
Speaker 1: a world that looks like nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: It's a scary thought. It's also really scary for the
Speaker 1: US military because those advanced chips are what the US
Speaker 1: would need to power its military. So from a US perspective,
Speaker 1: it's really important that some of TSMC's operations be on
Speaker 1: short and that's reflected of these fabrication plants fabs that
Speaker 1: are being built in Arizona. That is sort of an
Speaker 1: opening bid for perhaps more chip making that could move
Speaker 1: out of Taiwan. Already, TSMC has an operation in Japan,
Speaker 1: they're flirting with Germany. So there's this idea that maybe
Speaker 1: there could be more chip making outside of Taiwan. Now
Speaker 1: that becomes really complicated in Taiwan because there's a fear
Speaker 1: that if all this advanced chip making moves out of Taiwan,
Speaker 1: would anyone come to Taiwan's aid, should tensions escalate in
Speaker 1: China invade if the chip making isn't happening in Taiwan,
Speaker 1: do you need Taiwan? And that is a really really
Speaker 1: difficult question that is part of this election as well.
Speaker 3: Cindy, what do Lie and the other candidates say about
Speaker 3: this question of exporting chip making capability to other countries.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we asked Lied about this question during our terview,
Speaker 6: and Lie things it's actually a good thing that Taiwan,
Speaker 6: especially TSMC, could set up its plans overseas because that
Speaker 6: shows the expansion of Taiwan's economic strengths, and that shows
Speaker 6: Taiwan's significance and the global tax supply chain tawand Pan.
Speaker 7: Taiwan's semiconductor industry has attracted attention from around the world,
Speaker 7: but this industry is built on cooperation. For example, in Taiwan,
Speaker 7: we are focused on IC design, IC production, packaging and testing.
Speaker 7: Our processes are focused in the manufacturing space. However, our
Speaker 7: equipment comes from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. As
Speaker 7: a result of the semiconductor industry consists of a shared
Speaker 7: supply chain from across democracies.
Speaker 6: Tany and he also believes that that's Taiwan's responsibility to
Speaker 6: give back to the international community. So when we ask
Speaker 6: him during the interview if TSMC going to set up
Speaker 6: another plan in the US in the future, will he
Speaker 6: stopped that His ansor is literally no, because he thinks
Speaker 6: that's just a positive development to show Taiwan's significance to
Speaker 6: the wall.
Speaker 1: All of this speaks to an element in the election
Speaker 1: that you could think of as American skepticism, which is,
Speaker 1: if chip making moves out of Taiwan, does the US
Speaker 1: actually have Taiwan's back. The other element that Lie brought up,
Speaker 1: which I thought was fascinating, was even though the chip
Speaker 1: making moves to the US, Taiwan has this ecosystem that's
Speaker 1: been built over decades and the US doesn't have that
Speaker 1: same ecosystem. So those chips that are going to get
Speaker 1: made in Arizona on behalf of Apple and Nvidia and
Speaker 1: whoever else. Those chips are going to go back to
Speaker 1: Taiwan and basically be assembled into other things or elsewhere. Right,
Speaker 1: So it speaks to sure, US might get some chips
Speaker 1: out of this, but they're going to get made and
Speaker 1: then ships somewhere else to get assembled into the final
Speaker 1: product that Americans buy as consumer goods.
Speaker 3: Cindy, How do regular people in Taiwan feel about this?
Speaker 3: Do they think it's a good idea to export chip making?
Speaker 6: I think that's really a controversial topic in Taiwan now,
Speaker 6: and I believe some people saying it's a good idea,
Speaker 6: just like Vice President Lai said, will other people would
Speaker 6: also agree with the opposition camp's idea that it's probably
Speaker 6: the US trying to get the chip industry out of Taiwan.
Speaker 6: In case of emergency or conflict, then US probably won't
Speaker 6: really need to centrop to Taiwan or defend Taiwan and
Speaker 6: not helping this. Just a while ago, we see former
Speaker 6: US President Trump said.
Speaker 2: Remember this, Taiwan took Smart Brilliant, they took our business away.
Speaker 2: We should have stopped them. We should have text them,
Speaker 2: we should have tariffed them.
Speaker 6: So that again probably proved to some Taiwanese. Let just
Speaker 6: totally fit into this US skepticism theory that US didn't
Speaker 6: really try to help Taiwan for its own benefit after
Speaker 6: the break.
Speaker 3: How do people in Taiwan see the relationship with China, Joe.
Speaker 3: We've talked about how some people are making comparisons between
Speaker 3: Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan, and that a
Speaker 3: lot of people see this election is important in part
Speaker 3: because the next president may have to deal with an
Speaker 3: escalation of tensions with China. What is Lie's view on
Speaker 3: what Taiwan needs to do if war with China is
Speaker 3: a real risk.
Speaker 1: I think it's imperative that Taiwan and Lie not provoke China,
Speaker 1: and so that will be the first thing. One of
Speaker 1: the other people that we talked to was actually the
Speaker 1: Foreign Minister, and the Foreign Minister said, China likes to
Speaker 1: draw red lines and bluster and one of the things
Speaker 1: that the international community should do is recognize that and
Speaker 1: not take that beat. So I think, first and foremost
Speaker 1: it's imperative that LIE to keep the status quo, not provoke,
Speaker 1: but should it happen. He's made clear that Taiwan will defend.
Speaker 6: Itself when we as lie. During the interview what he
Speaker 6: learned from the Russian Ukraine War, he acknowledged that talent
Speaker 6: securities of international concern and we will not be provocative
Speaker 6: and try to avoid war as much as possible.
Speaker 7: Means democracy is a universal value, irrespective of borders. President
Speaker 7: Zelenski rallied his people to resist Russia's invasion. They are
Speaker 7: protecting not only their country, their land, and their people.
Speaker 7: They are also fighting on behalf of our democratic values.
Speaker 5: Anyway, would also it's a how.
Speaker 7: Colade Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has led us to
Speaker 7: see that dictatorships are inherently unpredictable. We must make the
Speaker 7: best preparations for a worst case scenario and any way,
Speaker 7: we also see that President Zelenski's courage, as well as
Speaker 7: the support they sought internationally, all contributed to Ukraine's resistance
Speaker 7: against the Russian invasion. We have a deep understanding that
Speaker 7: we must avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. There are
Speaker 7: no winners in war. Peace is priceless. From the war
Speaker 7: in Ukraine, we see that we must do all we
Speaker 7: can to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 3: Tenzin Cindy, What do you people in Taiwan think about
Speaker 3: this risk of war? Is this a topic of conversation
Speaker 3: that comes up a lot.
Speaker 6: I think on the surface, the life in Taiwan are
Speaker 6: pretty normal, just like when Joel visited US. We took
Speaker 6: Joel to the Nine Markets and you can see that
Speaker 6: the nine markets are packed with the food vendors and
Speaker 6: pack withst tourists not only from Taiwan but also from
Speaker 6: around the world. So businesses is very usual in Taiwan.
Speaker 6: And the other day when I try to book a restaurant,
Speaker 6: I still need to like there's a long queue for
Speaker 6: Taiwan's famous thing, Tayphoon restaurant, things like that. So on
Speaker 6: the surface, everything looks very normal in Taiwan. But I
Speaker 6: think under the surface something started to change, especially after
Speaker 6: the Russian Ukraine War started. I think people here started
Speaker 6: to realize that war is not impossible. One of my
Speaker 6: friends who is from a wealthy family, they're talking about
Speaker 6: buying passports from some smaller countries, probably like some countries
Speaker 6: in the Caribbean Sea or even in EU. If you
Speaker 6: invest a certain amount of money, so that kind of
Speaker 6: options have take rooted in some Taiwanese people's minds, especially
Speaker 6: those people from the wealthy families, because they probably have
Speaker 6: more to lose. They're thinking about contingency plan for themselves
Speaker 6: and even for their kids. And in the campaign, there
Speaker 6: are some other issues like a slow in economy, stagnant wages,
Speaker 6: high housing costs, and repeated delayed in the transition to
Speaker 6: renewable energy. But really the tension with China is the
Speaker 6: biggest issue in the presidential election, so that overshadows everything else.
Speaker 3: Does China have a preferred candidate in this race? What
Speaker 3: do they think of Lie as a possible president of Taiwan.
Speaker 6: Certainly China doesn't like Lie. So there was an anodote
Speaker 6: about Light. He went to Shanghai in twenty fourteen, and
Speaker 6: he made really strong comments about Taiwan independence. According to
Speaker 6: one of the person who was in Live's delegation at
Speaker 6: that time, he said Light immediately picked up that question
Speaker 6: by saying Tawan independence was the consensus among the Taiwanese people.
Speaker 6: That's still vividly remembered by many of us in Taiwan,
Speaker 6: and some people in his delegation. Even Jokin said afterwards
Speaker 6: that they'll worry whether they will be able to leave
Speaker 6: Shanghai after his comments on taiwan independence.
Speaker 1: Just to understore that significance lies the only Taiwanese politician
Speaker 1: to make bold statements about Taiwanese independence on Chinese soil.
Speaker 1: That shows you how much Beijing does not like him.
Speaker 6: As to the other opposition candidate, the one that's probably
Speaker 6: the most China friendly is Terry Gould. That's the founder
Speaker 6: of Foxhound Technology Group. He hasn't really declared his bid
Speaker 6: for presidential candidacy yet, but it's widely suspected that he
Speaker 6: probably will do that. And the reason why he is
Speaker 6: the most China friendly one is because he has said
Speaker 6: an an opinion piece to The Washington Post that he
Speaker 6: called for Taiwan to immediately start a top with China
Speaker 6: under the One China Framework, and he also blamed current
Speaker 6: leader the President tai and Vice President Lie for bringing
Speaker 6: Taiwan to the brink of war. So people expected that
Speaker 6: Perry Gill would declare his bid for the presidential candidate
Speaker 6: as an independent, and if that's true within opposition split
Speaker 6: among three candidates, that's probably going to increase present lives
Speaker 6: chance as a presidential candidate Joe.
Speaker 3: So where do things go from here?
Speaker 1: So the election is going to actually be in January,
Speaker 1: so we have several months for this to play out,
Speaker 1: and then once we know who's won the election, the
Speaker 1: new president actually won't take office until May, so we
Speaker 1: have a lot of time. But it does speak to
Speaker 1: also the turbulence of Taiwanese politics. The last election, the
Speaker 1: current president side was not in the lead and then
Speaker 1: dramatically took over the lead and won in a landslide.
Speaker 1: So while Lie is currently ahead in the polls, it's
Speaker 1: an election and anything can happen.
Speaker 6: One thing to remember though, Lie currently has a support
Speaker 6: rating of under forty, so that means at least sixty
Speaker 6: percent of people who are not supportive of Lie. So
Speaker 6: if there is any way that a position campaign they
Speaker 6: can try to consolidate behind one candidate, then that could
Speaker 6: be the only way that they could lead over vice
Speaker 6: person Lie beat him and be elected next January.
Speaker 1: A way to think about what unfolds over the next
Speaker 1: couple of months is you've got Lie, who's a former
Speaker 1: kidney doctor, the TPP candidate former surgeon. You've got the
Speaker 1: KMT candidate who's a former detective and then you've got
Speaker 1: Fox Con founder Terry Woe, who's a billionaire. So you've
Speaker 1: got a doctor, a surgeon, a detective, and a billionaire
Speaker 1: walking into an election. Who wins. The world is going
Speaker 1: to be watching this election come January. Obviously, Taiwan's invested
Speaker 1: in this outcome. Beijing is watching it, the US is
Speaker 1: watching it, Europe's watching it. The global economy might hinge
Speaker 1: in the balance of who's elected president, So the stakes
Speaker 1: for this election could not be higher.
Speaker 3: Joel Cindy, thanks so much for speaking with me, Thanks
Speaker 3: for having us, Thanks for listening to us here at
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