1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: Consequences are coming right quick, with missile firings in the 2 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: East China see and now supposedly military operations surrounding Taiwan. 3 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 2: In the last few days, China flew seventy two airplanes 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: across the midline of the Taiwan Straight. 5 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:20,319 Speaker 3: How would the world respond if China invaded Taiwan? That 6 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 3: question is increasingly on the minds of leaders around the world. 7 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 3: President Biden said last year that the United States would 8 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 3: consider using military force to defend Taiwan. 9 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 4: Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan 10 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 4: if it comes to that, Yes, you are. 11 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 5: That's the commitment we made. 12 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 3: That drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which sees Taiwan 13 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 3: not as an independent entity but a part of China 14 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 3: that will one day be united with the mainland. The 15 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 3: terms of Taiwan's relationship with China is the central issue 16 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 3: in the closely watched presidential campaign underway there. The front 17 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 3: runner right now among several candidates is Taiwan's current Vice 18 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 3: president le Chinda of the Democratic Progressive Party It's known 19 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 3: as the DPP. Lai is hoping to succeed president, saying 20 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:17,759 Speaker 3: when she can't run again because of term limits. He's 21 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: taken a firmer stance on Taiwan's independence than some of 22 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 3: the other candidates. 23 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 5: We are willing to cooperate with China to advance peace 24 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 5: and prosperity. However, antier China relong states the force against Taiwan. 25 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 5: We must strengthen our military capacity and stand shoulder to 26 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 5: shoulder which democracies to effectively deter the traits from China. 27 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 3: That's lie. Speaking to Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Joel Weber, he 28 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 3: recently sat down with the Vice president for several wide 29 00:01:57,760 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 3: ranging interviews in Taiwan. 30 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: That's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve this 31 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of its 32 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: prosperity and keep Beijing away? 33 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 3: Joel and Bloomberg's deputy Taipei Bureau chief, Cindy Wang, are 34 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 3: here with me to talk about what's at stake for 35 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 3: Taiwan and the heavy burden the next president will face. 36 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 3: I'm west Kosova today on the big take an election 37 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 3: for Taiwan's future. Cindy, There's this very important presidential election 38 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 3: coming up in Taiwan, and of course all presidential elections 39 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 3: are important, but this one seems to have extra significance. 40 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 3: Why are people paying so close attention to this one? 41 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right. I think when people talk about Taiwan 42 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 6: these days, the first question that comes to people's mind 43 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 6: would be where there be a war across the Taiwan Strait. 44 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 6: So the key question that everybody wants to note about 45 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 6: Taiwan is how it's going to handle China. And well, 46 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 6: China probably invade Taiwan sometime and that concerns everybody, especially 47 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 6: because Taiwan is the very important tech cup that has 48 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 6: this world famous se conductor industry. So I think this 49 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 6: election is especially important because it's all about war, and 50 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 6: that's also what many people in Taiwan are worried about 51 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 6: right now. So people here are also anxious to know 52 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 6: whether the next president of Taiwan will be able to 53 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 6: handle the tricky relationship with China and how he can 54 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 6: or she can help Taiwan reduce the risk of war. 55 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 6: And right now it looks like the ruling party DPP's 56 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 6: presidential candidate lighting that he's a front runner and most 57 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 6: of the polls now and if DPB wings again, it 58 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 6: would be the first time in Taiwan that a political 59 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 6: party could govern for a third term, and that would 60 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 6: probably mean more people in Taiwan now see themselves as 61 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 6: a Taiwanese and that's going to send a very strong 62 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 6: signal to China because there is a risk that China's 63 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 6: nationalism will be so high that it could increase the 64 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 6: chance of a war across the strait. 65 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 3: Jolis Cindy said, the current vice president, like Chanda, is 66 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 3: the front runner in the race, and you went to 67 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 3: Taiwan to go speak to him, tell us about him. 68 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 1: Well, I can't imagine a more complicated geopolitical situation than 69 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 1: the one that's in Taiwan. And I think coming to 70 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: the situation from the US, there's this outsider vibe that 71 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: I think I brought to it, which was I'm just 72 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: going to drop into this place and I just expected 73 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: there to be this cloud of China that was over everything. 74 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 1: It was actually kind of surprised that that's not how 75 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 1: it felt. It felt like everyone going about their normal 76 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: lives and then all of a sudden there would be 77 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: reminders of that presence. And I think Lie actually is 78 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: a pretty good embodiment of that. He's an incredibly calm, 79 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: mild mannered or at least that's what he wants to project. 80 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: He was a doctor originally and entered politics actually in 81 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety six and has sort of risen through the 82 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: Taiwanese political apparatus as a member of the DPP, which 83 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: has always been pro Taiwan, pro democracy. So he views 84 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: himself as really a democratic candidate. And as much as 85 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: we want to talk about war and this war sentiment, 86 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: and that is one of the defining elements of this 87 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 1: I think presidential election, he will frame it around democracy 88 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 1: and that he wants to be a continuity candidate with 89 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 1: the previous administration, which obviously he's the vice president of. 90 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: But there's a lot of questions that accompany that because 91 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: he has a very interesting backstory, and again it speaks 92 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 1: to how complicated of a geopolitical situation Taiwan represents. 93 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 3: Cindy. What does it mean when we say that Lie 94 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 3: wants to be a continuity candidate. 95 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 6: So Vice person Lai has been known for his provocative 96 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 6: comments in the past. He's known to the Taiwanese public 97 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 6: as a strong advocate for Taiwan independence. So that's the 98 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 6: impression that he left to most people in Taiwan here. 99 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 6: So he has this kind of track record. He said 100 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 6: many times in the past that he would be like 101 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 6: a pragmatic independence worker. Things like that, and that kind 102 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:43,919 Speaker 6: of provocative comments. 103 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 4: Really worried people and worry Beijing and US as well 104 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 4: as people are worried that he may try to change 105 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 4: the status quo, and that's something that nobody has a 106 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 4: stake with Taiwan would like to see at a moment. 107 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 6: So soli Is now has a very very important task. 108 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 6: Is he has to prove to everyone, to the US, 109 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 6: to China and even to people in Taiwan that he 110 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 6: is going to be a very steady pair of hands. 111 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 6: He will not change the status quo. He has to 112 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 6: maintain the status quote that Present Thai has maintained over 113 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 6: the past almost eight years. So we asked him during 114 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 6: our sitdown interview with him, whether there would be a 115 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 6: romance to Taiwan independence, whether he would consider change the 116 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 6: name of Taiwan. So his answers to all those questions 117 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 6: are no, there isn't going to be any change. Currently 118 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 6: the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China, 119 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 6: and he said because Present Thai has used the name 120 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 6: Republic of China Taiwan to unite the Taiwanese people, and 121 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 6: that's the name he will continue to use. 122 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 3: Joels Cindi says, people watch very carefully how Liai describes Taiwan, 123 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 3: and China certainly does too, and that's true of everyone. 124 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 3: The way talks about itself, The way China describes Taiwan 125 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 3: is really at the heart of this whole question. 126 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: Right, and there's this status quo that a lot of 127 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: the parties involved are trying to maintain, and everyone watches 128 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: their words very carefully, me included me most of all. Actually, 129 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: probably right when you read about this stuff, you got 130 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: to be exacting and that was reflected actually in my 131 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: interviews with Lai. He speaks decent English, but he actually 132 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: chose to speak mainly in Chinese, I think out of caution, basically, 133 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: to be super mindful of the words that were coming 134 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: out of his mouth. There are a couple of times 135 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: that he opted to speak in English, but I think 136 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: default setting for him was in Chinese because of the 137 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 1: importance of getting his message right. And that shows you 138 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: what the stakes really look like here. So what really 139 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: comes down to here is Taiwan in the eyes of 140 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: Beijing is viewed as a breakaway province and under this 141 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: one Chin a policy that has become sort of the 142 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: driving principle of beijing geopolitical goals. They view everything Taiwan 143 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: included as part of a greater China and will be 144 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: absorbed at a future date. What that future date is, 145 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: no one really knows. Taiwan wants it to be never 146 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: and wants the status quo to remain where they are 147 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: a democratically independent sovereign entity. So that's the ultimate tension 148 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: here is can Taiwan preserve this democratic DNA that has 149 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: really been the foundation of its prosperity and keep Beijing away? 150 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 6: I think status quo is really the key thing here. 151 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 6: I think every party which has a stake in Taiwan 152 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 6: all wants to preserve this status quo, although they may 153 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 6: have different interpretation about the status quo. Some polls in 154 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 6: Taiwan show that at least three fours of Taiwan's popular 155 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 6: supports status quo. They don't want to be independent, they 156 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 6: don't want to unification with China either, but they want 157 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 6: the status quo to go on. Since US and Taiwan 158 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 6: cut ties about like four decades ago, so US switched 159 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 6: ties to Beijing and recognized Beijing is China, and then 160 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 6: from that moment on US stop recognizing Taiwan as a 161 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 6: sovereign country. Instead, there is an ambiguity that acknowledged that 162 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 6: China's idea that there is only one China and that's 163 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 6: represented by People's Republic of China. But it just leaves 164 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 6: the entity of Taiwan undecided. So that's the tricky thing 165 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 6: about the US One China policy. So even though US 166 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 6: President Joe Biden has that four times that it would 167 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 6: defend Taiwan, this ambiguity that US officially didn't recognize Taiwan 168 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 6: as a country, so it can't really call Taiwan as 169 00:10:59,160 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 6: a nation. 170 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: I think the other thing to keep in mind there 171 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: is it's almost like everything just feels like it's on 172 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: a hair trigger, and what everyone is fearful of is provoking, 173 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: and what I think Beijing does is attempt to continue 174 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: to push the envelope. There's a medium line in the 175 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: middle of the Taiwan's rate. They've crossed it. They've fired 176 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: missiles over Taiwan, They've done a partial naval blockade in 177 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: response to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit a year ago. 178 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: So all of these things sort of challenge the status quo, 179 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 1: and the moment that Taiwan or the US were to 180 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: respond in a way that might be a little too impulsive. 181 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: For instance, Beijing will use that as an indication of 182 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: change to the status quo and maybe escalate the situation. 183 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:52,959 Speaker 3: Joel, you asked Lie how Taiwan feels about the support 184 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 3: it gets from the rest of the world. 185 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: Do you feel that the international community treats Taiwan justly? 186 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 5: I sing so. I sing so because Taiwan security is 187 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 5: a globo yishu and the piece in the Indo Pacific 188 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 5: region benefit all the country. 189 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: I think that answer reflects just how complicated of a 190 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 1: situation Taiwan's in with its diplomatic relationships around the world. 191 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: There are official allies that Taiwan has thirteen of them, 192 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: thirteen countries recognized Taiwan as a country and an ally, 193 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: but that number is dwindled in recent years as China's 194 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: flipped a couple of them, and right now, actually Vice 195 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 1: President Lae is in transit through the US to visit 196 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: an official ally Paraguay. Paraguay happens to be a supplier 197 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: of beef to Taiwan. If you go to Taipei or 198 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: anywhere in Taiwan. Beef noodle soup is one of the 199 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: dishes that is phenomenal. A lot of the beef in 200 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: beef noodle soup comes from Paraguay. That gives you a 201 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: sense of what they're going to talk about when live 202 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 1: shows up. Is like the importance of this relationship between 203 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 1: Paraguay and Taiwan. Right, But to go through the US, 204 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: he can't have a round trip ticket that puts him 205 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 1: in the US. He has to transit through here to 206 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: get to Paraguay. So he goes through New York on 207 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,680 Speaker 1: the way and then he goes through San Francisco on 208 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: the way back. And that's all not to inflame China. 209 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 1: So all of these diplomatic relationships that Taiwan has comes 210 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: down to this sensitivities with China. And there's these official 211 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 1: allies that Taiwan has, but there's also these unofficial ones. 212 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: And part of what the current administration President Sai with 213 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: Vice President Lai have done is really tried to lean 214 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: into this informal, unofficial friendship of like minded democracies they'll 215 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: call it. So Japan is a huge part of that. 216 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: Australia is a part of that. South Korea could be 217 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,439 Speaker 1: part of that. And then looking at Europe, which has 218 00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: suddenly looked to Taiwan because of Ukraine, I think to say, wow, 219 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: here's a place that we should also be supporting. And 220 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 1: then of course the US. So there's this patchwork quilt 221 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 1: that Taiwan hopes has its back, and as you say, 222 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: Lie has to transit through the US bocanically stop there. 223 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 3: Like you would never see the president or vice president 224 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 3: of Taiwan visiting Joe Biden at the White House. 225 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: Not only would you not see Lie visiting DC, you 226 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 1: won't see the president or the Vice president go to Taiwan. 227 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: And that's why when former Speaker of the House Nancy 228 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: Pelosi showed up, it escalated the situation, and I think 229 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: a year later, we're still in the aftermath of that, 230 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: and that's one of the reasons why everyone's watching this election. 231 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 3: More from Joel's interview with Lie when we come back, Joel, 232 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 3: we've been talking about how carefully everyone speaks about the 233 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 3: relationship between Taiwan in China, and Lie has really pushed 234 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 3: those boundaries a little bit. When you talk to him, 235 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 3: how did he talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China. 236 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: So I think the foundation of Lie's candidacy and what 237 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: he says in the interview is really about this idea 238 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: of maintaining the status quo. And because he is this 239 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: continuity candidate, he's the current vice president, the current president. 240 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: President sign can't run because of term liaments, so he's 241 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: continuing the DPP's policies, which is basically, we're willing to 242 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: have a dialogue with Beijing. The door is open, only 243 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: Beijing doesn't see it that way. Beijing, as an opening 244 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: bid to any conversation, would want Taiwan to recognize that 245 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: it is part of Greater China, and that is a 246 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: non starter for Lie. And it also speaks to sort 247 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: of how fractured the rest of this race looks like 248 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: and what the opposition parties might be willing to do. 249 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 3: And you spoke to Lii about this, and here's what 250 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 3: he had to say. 251 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:15,479 Speaker 7: Well, Jensa, this election is about choosing between two roads. 252 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 7: One way is to continue engaging and cooperating closely with 253 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 7: the international community while deepening our democracy. The other choice 254 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 7: is to accept the one China principle and stand together 255 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 7: with China. I believe the US will continue to support 256 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:35,479 Speaker 7: us on the first path one means. 257 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 6: So Lie is talking about, of course, the US, and 258 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 6: he believes that US will want him to continue the 259 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 6: path to work with the international community, including the US, 260 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 6: while the opposition candidates would probably go down to the 261 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 6: other side. They wanted to increase the dialogue and exchanges 262 00:16:55,760 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 6: with China. So the key issue for this present election 263 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 6: is about how people should decide how Taiwan should deal 264 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,679 Speaker 6: with China going forward. 265 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 3: Joe, when you spoke to lie about how he would 266 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 3: lead the country, what did he say? What is his platform? 267 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 1: Well, there's a formal answer to that which has got 268 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 1: these four principles that are effectively speak to how he 269 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: will continue president size policies. I think the foundation, though, 270 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 1: is that he really wants to have Taiwan as a democracy. 271 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 5: I have the confidence that if we go on the 272 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 5: right path to strengthen our sybil and national defense capability 273 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 5: and extend shoulder to shoulder with democracies, I think we 274 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 5: will go through this complicated situation. And I always say 275 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 5: peace is our destination, democracy is our campus. We have two. 276 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 5: We have no choice to navigate brevity through this complicated situation. 277 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: I mean he won best legislator in Taiwan when he 278 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: was on a more local level. And the foundation of 279 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 1: the DPP is this is a democracy right. So part 280 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 1: of how this election is being framed is that Lie 281 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 1: says voting for me is voting for democracy. The opposition 282 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 1: candidates will say, if you're voting for Lie, you're voting 283 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 1: for war. If you're voting for us, you're voting for peace. 284 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: And so those are sort of the ultimate tensions that 285 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: are kind of playing out here. 286 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,920 Speaker 3: And what does he say about those charges that vote 287 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 3: for him is a vote for war. 288 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 1: He does not want to provoke China full stop. So 289 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: for him, he wants to be ready to defend and 290 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 1: he said that to us. One element of that is 291 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: that the current administration has extended conscription, which in Taiwan 292 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: had been four months. So if you're an adult male, 293 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: you had to do a four month tour of duty 294 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: with the military. That's been extended to a year. That's 295 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: been controversial because it speaks to the fact that Taiwan 296 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: needs to be able to defend itself. And one of 297 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,360 Speaker 1: the things, like us is we would want the US 298 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:24,920 Speaker 1: to come to our back, but we need to be 299 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,640 Speaker 1: able to defend ourselves. 300 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,640 Speaker 5: We don't want to be enemies. We can be throwned 301 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 5: and we love to see China can enjoy democracy and 302 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 5: freedom just like us as long as layo is parity 303 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 5: and dignity, although is always open. We are willing to 304 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 5: cooperate with China to advance peace and prosperity. However, a 305 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 5: tier China relungstates the force against Taiwan. We must strengthen 306 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 5: our mini try capacity and the stand shoulder to shoulder 307 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 5: with democracies to effectively deter the straits from China and 308 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 5: to secure stability in the inter Pacific region. 309 00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 6: So Light previously said that to avoid war, Talan has 310 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 6: to be prepared for war. So I think people here 311 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 6: usually cite soon that's ancient Chinese military strategy saying that 312 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 6: the best strategy would be to stop your enemy from 313 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 6: doing anything stupid. 314 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 4: So that's why. 315 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 6: Not only just why, but also the KNT and the 316 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 6: opposition candidates as well. They all support the idea that 317 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 6: talent should be fat the deterrence so that that could 318 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 6: stop China from having the idea to invade Taiwan and 319 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 6: also have to let China think twice about the massive 320 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 6: consequence they may have. Should one day they wanted to 321 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,199 Speaker 6: invade Taiwan. Joe. 322 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 3: We've talked about how Taiwan's chip making capability is one 323 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 3: of its most important assets and one of the things 324 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 3: that the rest of the world would potentially want to 325 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 3: protect if China decided to move in. But TSMC, the 326 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 3: big chip maker, is now building plants in the US. 327 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 3: Is that considered a good thing or a bad thing 328 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 3: for Taiwan's security? 329 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: That is a strategic imperative for the US. If all 330 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 1: of the world's advanced chip making resides solely in Taiwan 331 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,640 Speaker 1: and there were an escalation of tensions in Taiwan or 332 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 1: just open warfare, the world could be set back years. 333 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: I mean, we take away these chips, you're living in 334 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: a world that looks like nineteen eighty two. 335 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 2: Right. 336 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 1: It's a scary thought. It's also really scary for the 337 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 1: US military because those advanced chips are what the US 338 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: would need to power its military. So from a US perspective, 339 00:21:55,520 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: it's really important that some of TSMC's operations be on 340 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 1: short and that's reflected of these fabrication plants fabs that 341 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: are being built in Arizona. That is sort of an 342 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: opening bid for perhaps more chip making that could move 343 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: out of Taiwan. Already, TSMC has an operation in Japan, 344 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: they're flirting with Germany. So there's this idea that maybe 345 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: there could be more chip making outside of Taiwan. Now 346 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 1: that becomes really complicated in Taiwan because there's a fear 347 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: that if all this advanced chip making moves out of Taiwan, 348 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: would anyone come to Taiwan's aid, should tensions escalate in 349 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: China invade if the chip making isn't happening in Taiwan, 350 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 1: do you need Taiwan? And that is a really really 351 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 1: difficult question that is part of this election as well. 352 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 3: Cindy, what do Lie and the other candidates say about 353 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 3: this question of exporting chip making capability to other countries. 354 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 6: Yeah, we asked Lied about this question during our terview, 355 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 6: and Lie things it's actually a good thing that Taiwan, 356 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 6: especially TSMC, could set up its plans overseas because that 357 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 6: shows the expansion of Taiwan's economic strengths, and that shows 358 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 6: Taiwan's significance and the global tax supply chain tawand Pan. 359 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 7: Taiwan's semiconductor industry has attracted attention from around the world, 360 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 7: but this industry is built on cooperation. For example, in Taiwan, 361 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 7: we are focused on IC design, IC production, packaging and testing. 362 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 7: Our processes are focused in the manufacturing space. However, our 363 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 7: equipment comes from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. As 364 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 7: a result of the semiconductor industry consists of a shared 365 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,119 Speaker 7: supply chain from across democracies. 366 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 6: Tany and he also believes that that's Taiwan's responsibility to 367 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 6: give back to the international community. So when we ask 368 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 6: him during the interview if TSMC going to set up 369 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 6: another plan in the US in the future, will he 370 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,479 Speaker 6: stopped that His ansor is literally no, because he thinks 371 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 6: that's just a positive development to show Taiwan's significance to 372 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 6: the wall. 373 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: All of this speaks to an element in the election 374 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: that you could think of as American skepticism, which is, 375 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 1: if chip making moves out of Taiwan, does the US 376 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:30,120 Speaker 1: actually have Taiwan's back. The other element that Lie brought up, 377 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: which I thought was fascinating, was even though the chip 378 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: making moves to the US, Taiwan has this ecosystem that's 379 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 1: been built over decades and the US doesn't have that 380 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 1: same ecosystem. So those chips that are going to get 381 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: made in Arizona on behalf of Apple and Nvidia and 382 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: whoever else. Those chips are going to go back to 383 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 1: Taiwan and basically be assembled into other things or elsewhere. Right, 384 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: So it speaks to sure, US might get some chips 385 00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: out of this, but they're going to get made and 386 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: then ships somewhere else to get assembled into the final 387 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 1: product that Americans buy as consumer goods. 388 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 3: Cindy, How do regular people in Taiwan feel about this? 389 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 3: Do they think it's a good idea to export chip making? 390 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 6: I think that's really a controversial topic in Taiwan now, 391 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 6: and I believe some people saying it's a good idea, 392 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 6: just like Vice President Lai said, will other people would 393 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:31,920 Speaker 6: also agree with the opposition camp's idea that it's probably 394 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 6: the US trying to get the chip industry out of Taiwan. 395 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 6: In case of emergency or conflict, then US probably won't 396 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 6: really need to centrop to Taiwan or defend Taiwan and 397 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 6: not helping this. Just a while ago, we see former 398 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 6: US President Trump said. 399 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 2: Remember this, Taiwan took Smart Brilliant, they took our business away. 400 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 2: We should have stopped them. We should have text them, 401 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 2: we should have tariffed them. 402 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,239 Speaker 6: So that again probably proved to some Taiwanese. Let just 403 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 6: totally fit into this US skepticism theory that US didn't 404 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 6: really try to help Taiwan for its own benefit after 405 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 6: the break. 406 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 3: How do people in Taiwan see the relationship with China, Joe. 407 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 3: We've talked about how some people are making comparisons between 408 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 3: Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan, and that a 409 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 3: lot of people see this election is important in part 410 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,320 Speaker 3: because the next president may have to deal with an 411 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,959 Speaker 3: escalation of tensions with China. What is Lie's view on 412 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 3: what Taiwan needs to do if war with China is 413 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:50,680 Speaker 3: a real risk. 414 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: I think it's imperative that Taiwan and Lie not provoke China, 415 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 1: and so that will be the first thing. One of 416 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 1: the other people that we talked to was actually the 417 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: Foreign Minister, and the Foreign Minister said, China likes to 418 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,640 Speaker 1: draw red lines and bluster and one of the things 419 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,440 Speaker 1: that the international community should do is recognize that and 420 00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 1: not take that beat. So I think, first and foremost 421 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: it's imperative that LIE to keep the status quo, not provoke, 422 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 1: but should it happen. He's made clear that Taiwan will defend. 423 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 6: Itself when we as lie. During the interview what he 424 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 6: learned from the Russian Ukraine War, he acknowledged that talent 425 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 6: securities of international concern and we will not be provocative 426 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 6: and try to avoid war as much as possible. 427 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 7: Means democracy is a universal value, irrespective of borders. President 428 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 7: Zelenski rallied his people to resist Russia's invasion. They are 429 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 7: protecting not only their country, their land, and their people. 430 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 7: They are also fighting on behalf of our democratic values. 431 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 5: Anyway, would also it's a how. 432 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 7: Colade Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has led us to 433 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 7: see that dictatorships are inherently unpredictable. We must make the 434 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:13,640 Speaker 7: best preparations for a worst case scenario and any way, 435 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,439 Speaker 7: we also see that President Zelenski's courage, as well as 436 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:23,120 Speaker 7: the support they sought internationally, all contributed to Ukraine's resistance 437 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 7: against the Russian invasion. We have a deep understanding that 438 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,919 Speaker 7: we must avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. There are 439 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 7: no winners in war. Peace is priceless. From the war 440 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 7: in Ukraine, we see that we must do all we 441 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 7: can to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. 442 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 3: Tenzin Cindy, What do you people in Taiwan think about 443 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,719 Speaker 3: this risk of war? Is this a topic of conversation 444 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 3: that comes up a lot. 445 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 6: I think on the surface, the life in Taiwan are 446 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 6: pretty normal, just like when Joel visited US. We took 447 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 6: Joel to the Nine Markets and you can see that 448 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 6: the nine markets are packed with the food vendors and 449 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 6: pack withst tourists not only from Taiwan but also from 450 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 6: around the world. So businesses is very usual in Taiwan. 451 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 6: And the other day when I try to book a restaurant, 452 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 6: I still need to like there's a long queue for 453 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 6: Taiwan's famous thing, Tayphoon restaurant, things like that. So on 454 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 6: the surface, everything looks very normal in Taiwan. But I 455 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 6: think under the surface something started to change, especially after 456 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 6: the Russian Ukraine War started. I think people here started 457 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 6: to realize that war is not impossible. One of my 458 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 6: friends who is from a wealthy family, they're talking about 459 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 6: buying passports from some smaller countries, probably like some countries 460 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 6: in the Caribbean Sea or even in EU. If you 461 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 6: invest a certain amount of money, so that kind of 462 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 6: options have take rooted in some Taiwanese people's minds, especially 463 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 6: those people from the wealthy families, because they probably have 464 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 6: more to lose. They're thinking about contingency plan for themselves 465 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 6: and even for their kids. And in the campaign, there 466 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 6: are some other issues like a slow in economy, stagnant wages, 467 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 6: high housing costs, and repeated delayed in the transition to 468 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 6: renewable energy. But really the tension with China is the 469 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 6: biggest issue in the presidential election, so that overshadows everything else. 470 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 3: Does China have a preferred candidate in this race? What 471 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 3: do they think of Lie as a possible president of Taiwan. 472 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 6: Certainly China doesn't like Lie. So there was an anodote 473 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 6: about Light. He went to Shanghai in twenty fourteen, and 474 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 6: he made really strong comments about Taiwan independence. According to 475 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 6: one of the person who was in Live's delegation at 476 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 6: that time, he said Light immediately picked up that question 477 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 6: by saying Tawan independence was the consensus among the Taiwanese people. 478 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 6: That's still vividly remembered by many of us in Taiwan, 479 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 6: and some people in his delegation. Even Jokin said afterwards 480 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 6: that they'll worry whether they will be able to leave 481 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 6: Shanghai after his comments on taiwan independence. 482 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 1: Just to understore that significance lies the only Taiwanese politician 483 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 1: to make bold statements about Taiwanese independence on Chinese soil. 484 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: That shows you how much Beijing does not like him. 485 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 6: As to the other opposition candidate, the one that's probably 486 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 6: the most China friendly is Terry Gould. That's the founder 487 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 6: of Foxhound Technology Group. He hasn't really declared his bid 488 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 6: for presidential candidacy yet, but it's widely suspected that he 489 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:49,240 Speaker 6: probably will do that. And the reason why he is 490 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 6: the most China friendly one is because he has said 491 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 6: an an opinion piece to The Washington Post that he 492 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 6: called for Taiwan to immediately start a top with China 493 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 6: under the One China Framework, and he also blamed current 494 00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 6: leader the President tai and Vice President Lie for bringing 495 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 6: Taiwan to the brink of war. So people expected that 496 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 6: Perry Gill would declare his bid for the presidential candidate 497 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 6: as an independent, and if that's true within opposition split 498 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 6: among three candidates, that's probably going to increase present lives 499 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,720 Speaker 6: chance as a presidential candidate Joe. 500 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:36,560 Speaker 3: So where do things go from here? 501 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 1: So the election is going to actually be in January, 502 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,240 Speaker 1: so we have several months for this to play out, 503 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: and then once we know who's won the election, the 504 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 1: new president actually won't take office until May, so we 505 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 1: have a lot of time. But it does speak to 506 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 1: also the turbulence of Taiwanese politics. The last election, the 507 00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,680 Speaker 1: current president side was not in the lead and then 508 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 1: dramatically took over the lead and won in a landslide. 509 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: So while Lie is currently ahead in the polls, it's 510 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 1: an election and anything can happen. 511 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:13,680 Speaker 6: One thing to remember though, Lie currently has a support 512 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 6: rating of under forty, so that means at least sixty 513 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 6: percent of people who are not supportive of Lie. So 514 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 6: if there is any way that a position campaign they 515 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 6: can try to consolidate behind one candidate, then that could 516 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 6: be the only way that they could lead over vice 517 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,920 Speaker 6: person Lie beat him and be elected next January. 518 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 1: A way to think about what unfolds over the next 519 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 1: couple of months is you've got Lie, who's a former 520 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:52,200 Speaker 1: kidney doctor, the TPP candidate former surgeon. You've got the 521 00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 1: KMT candidate who's a former detective and then you've got 522 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 1: Fox Con founder Terry Woe, who's a billionaire. So you've 523 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 1: got a doctor, a surgeon, a detective, and a billionaire 524 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 1: walking into an election. Who wins. The world is going 525 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 1: to be watching this election come January. Obviously, Taiwan's invested 526 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,840 Speaker 1: in this outcome. Beijing is watching it, the US is 527 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:22,760 Speaker 1: watching it, Europe's watching it. The global economy might hinge 528 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 1: in the balance of who's elected president, So the stakes 529 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:28,879 Speaker 1: for this election could not be higher. 530 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 3: Joel Cindy, thanks so much for speaking with me, Thanks 531 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 3: for having us, Thanks for listening to us here at 532 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,640 Speaker 3: The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. 533 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:44,520 Speaker 3: For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, 534 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 3: or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 535 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,920 Speaker 3: Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg 536 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,279 Speaker 3: dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is 537 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 3: Vicky Virgalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Our producers 538 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:03,520 Speaker 3: are Michael Fole and Mowberrow. Philde Garcia is our engineer, 539 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 3: with additional production support from Nielli Haramio Plata and Jill Namazzi. 540 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 3: Our original music was composed by Leo Sidron. I'm West Kasova. 541 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 3: We'll be back tomorrow with another big take.