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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Nolman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: You know we do it all here, folks. We provide

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Speaker 1: the best in sports betting data, insights, analysis across the board,

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Speaker 1: across our award winning app, across our award winning website,

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Speaker 1: across all the shows we do on at Action Network HQ,

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Speaker 1: our Twitter handle, and on this podcast right now, the

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Speaker 1: Favorites with my bff, my companion, MIKEA Padre, professional beattar,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter whill Chat chat Chat. I wanted a five

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Speaker 1: a week, so bad, so bad. No, it's all, It's

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Speaker 1: all me. I would I wouldn't love the blame Chad.

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Speaker 1: The minute he took the Eagles and screwed for Lette.

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Speaker 1: I said what I always said, Chad, if you're new

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Speaker 1: to the show, chat is slightly cursed. And as soon

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Speaker 1: as you said the Eagles, we know, we knew, when

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Speaker 1: we knew that that was doomed. But I walked into

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Speaker 1: the firepit whether and I took it anyway, And that's

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Speaker 1: on me. So it is my faults. Uh. To remind

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Speaker 1: people this is how the show works. Tuesday's Simon and

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Speaker 1: I go through the entire NFL slate. We talked about

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Speaker 1: our leans, what we're thinking about Thursday, we narrow it

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Speaker 1: down and we try to come up with our five

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Speaker 1: favorite picks that we will put on on Sunday. Along

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Speaker 1: the way, you will get the Simon says, which means

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Speaker 1: you've got to pick this game right away. Last week,

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Speaker 1: Simon says, Cincinnati Bengals. Didn't matter that it was plus

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Speaker 1: six and a half, didn't matter, it was plus six.

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Speaker 1: We love the Bengals. Um, it worked out pretty well.

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Speaker 1: You're also referring to our final five picks. We went

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Speaker 1: three and two. We ended taking the Broncos plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half on Thursday night. We love the Bengals

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Speaker 1: at plus six and a half. We who else did

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Speaker 1: we take? Already? Find? What was that? Titans? We love

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Speaker 1: the Titans. So we started off three and now early

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Speaker 1: games we were three and now we took the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: We love the Eagles, and we never wavered off the Eagles. Okay,

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Speaker 1: don't make this a chat thing. We did not waver up.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying that's why I blamed myself. I should have

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Speaker 1: known better. You should have known better. We also do

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Speaker 1: Scooch Roulette in honor of Simon's predecessor, Bob Scucci, the

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Speaker 1: great bookmaker from the Stardust and Boyd Gaming, who was

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Speaker 1: the original co host of this show. Um. He and

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Speaker 1: I used to go ahead to head every week. He

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Speaker 1: would choose the game, I would choose a game. This

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Speaker 1: past week, Simon chose the Packers. I chose the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: He won. We got so much to unpack. We're going

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Speaker 1: to go through the entire slate. Um. We ended up

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Speaker 1: losing on the Eagles and the Niners. Um. That's one

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Speaker 1: of the things I want to talk about, the Packers

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Speaker 1: and the Niners. So, uh, we do the show on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: you talk about how much you love the Packers. You

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Speaker 1: didn't care what the line was, you love the Packers.

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Speaker 1: Every Thursday we do a segment called Sharp Calls, because

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Speaker 1: between Tuesday and Thursday, you will get calls from your

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Speaker 1: buddies who are professional betters, critiquing what we discussed. Sometimes

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Speaker 1: they're with you, sometimes they are against you. This week

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Speaker 1: they hated the Packers, they loved the Washington football team,

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Speaker 1: but they also called you about the Niners, saying they

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Speaker 1: like the Niners when we had said we liked the Colts.

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Speaker 1: We stuck to our guns on the packers. We turned

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Speaker 1: our back on our principles on the Colts and chose

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Speaker 1: the Niners. Tell me what happened? Why did we stick

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Speaker 1: with one and that's stick with the other. Do this

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Speaker 1: while I sip my decaf English breakfast tea on a damp,

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Speaker 1: cold day with a just a splash of vanilla soy creamery.

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Speaker 1: Uh So, I try to be as humble as I

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Speaker 1: can on this show, Chad. It's hard. It's hard to

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Speaker 1: be the humble when you're this bad looking. Um, How

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Speaker 1: can I say this? So? I say at the time,

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Speaker 1: there are maybe fifty guys and all of America that

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Speaker 1: do this for real, that bet on NFL with a

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Speaker 1: betting syndicate or they bet with a firm. They're legit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I know Twitter makes you think there's hundreds of us

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Speaker 1: grown out of trees. There isn't. I'm telling you there's

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Speaker 1: a very small group of it. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: I'm the only guy I knew that got hired at

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Speaker 1: this position in my twenties. Okay, now I'm in my

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Speaker 1: thirties so it doesn't sound as cool. But in my

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Speaker 1: twenties it was a big deal. Okay, A lot of

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Speaker 1: these guys will get the job I have until late thirties,

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Speaker 1: early forties. So I know I'm young, and I know

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Speaker 1: that a lot of the guys that listen to the

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Speaker 1: show that are pros that work for these other groups.

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Speaker 1: They're always gonna have opinions. So when a guy like

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Speaker 1: Hank calls me up and he's giving me a ship

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Speaker 1: about my Green Bay pick, that's not a big deal. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Like that's pros are gonna be on different sides. We

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Speaker 1: screw with each other at the time. That's why I

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Speaker 1: wasn't so staunch and switching that green Baby pick like

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Speaker 1: I like that pick. I felt good about it. The

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Speaker 1: Colts one again, there might be fifty people out there

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Speaker 1: to do what I do. One of these groups something

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Speaker 1: I'm not close with at all. They apparently hit a

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Speaker 1: book in Vegas, they hit a book in Colorado, and

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Speaker 1: they hit a bunch of books in New Jersey, all

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Speaker 1: in the forty niners. Okay, so this was obviously one

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Speaker 1: of these group's biggest bets of the year. I might

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Speaker 1: love my number, but one of the biggest things I

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Speaker 1: learned in life is you got to be open to

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Speaker 1: other people. You can't be a know it all, especially

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Speaker 1: in this business. Okay, There's always gonna be people that

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Speaker 1: know more than you. It doesn't matter how good your

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Speaker 1: system is, how how much you're on fire. I need

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Speaker 1: to if if another group this is their biggest bet

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Speaker 1: of the year and I know they're legit, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take that every time. Okay, And yeah, I feel like

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Speaker 1: an idiot. Okay, I was spot on my love for

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Speaker 1: the Colts. It was a good number. Everything I thought

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Speaker 1: was right. I think Jimmy G's a fraud. He was

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Speaker 1: a fraud in that game. But when a group like

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Speaker 1: that is coming in so heavy and they're hitting out

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Speaker 1: multiple books and multiple states, who the hell am I

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Speaker 1: to say, No, these guys are wrong. They will never

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Speaker 1: be the case. I'm always gonna go with that group

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Speaker 1: if I know it's one of the biggest bets of

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Speaker 1: the year. So I stepped in it. That was a

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Speaker 1: really stupid play by me where I should trust my number.

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Speaker 1: But it's just because I just know it is. These

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Speaker 1: guys know more than me, So I have to be

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Speaker 1: open to these things. Even though I think I'm really

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Speaker 1: good and I know I'm really good at what I do.

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Speaker 1: I always have to pay respect to these guys who've

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Speaker 1: come before me. I've done this for a long time,

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Speaker 1: so I hate that I did a chat, but I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't change it. I would have to do it again

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Speaker 1: because that's that's how I'm gonna make money long term,

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Speaker 1: is listening to these other guys. You know how you

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Speaker 1: stay great, Simon Wow, stay humble, keep grinding, Recognize there's

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Speaker 1: always a potentially new, interesting, different, better way to do

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Speaker 1: the job. What you're doing today isn't necessarily going to

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Speaker 1: work tomorrow, by the way. That's how we do it

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Speaker 1: every single day, every single day. But we thought work

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Speaker 1: last week is probably not gonna work the week after.

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Speaker 1: That's actually what the fun part is. You get to

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Speaker 1: be invented every single time. Yeah, Like you're always updating,

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Speaker 1: Like you'll never see going my way to talk bad

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Speaker 1: about other sports betters. Like I'm never going on Twitter

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Speaker 1: and seek out someone saying you're doing this wrong or whatever,

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Speaker 1: because it's just a waste. I don't really know pros

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Speaker 1: that do that. You always need to be updating, look

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Speaker 1: at things different, Like I got nothing against Wong teasers.

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Speaker 1: Long teasers clearly work that he wrote that book like

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Speaker 1: ten years ago. How much is the NFL changed in

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Speaker 1: ten years? So yeah, I I do want teasers. Other

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Speaker 1: times I go against the rules just because how is

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Speaker 1: anything the same it was ten years ago in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: It's just not key numbers have changed dramatically. We've talked

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Speaker 1: about it. Six has become one of the most key

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Speaker 1: numbers in all football. It's lying in at a higher

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Speaker 1: rate than seven is. That's a big deal. So always

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Speaker 1: be updating. Um, that's my biggest thing to people. It's

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Speaker 1: like I look at things differently, Like remember last year

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Speaker 1: the super Bowl. We talked about at the time. I

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Speaker 1: try to explain to people in in the super Bowl, Okay,

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Speaker 1: billions of dollars are being bet, so a plus three

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Speaker 1: in the super Bowl is much different than a plus

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Speaker 1: three in Week six. And if you view them as

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Speaker 1: the same thing, you're already way behind the gauge. Okay,

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Speaker 1: there is nothing comparable about a plus three in the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl and a plus three in Week six. Even

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Speaker 1: if the math works out to you that it is,

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Speaker 1: they're very different. They should be treated differently. Again, billions

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Speaker 1: of dollars of me and bet on the super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: maybe a couple of million if they're lucky, Like, who's

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Speaker 1: bet on the Giants Carolina Panthers plus three game? Nobody?

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Speaker 1: That's a different thing in the Super Bowl plus three.

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Speaker 1: So that's my whole thing is I just want people

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Speaker 1: to think different, and that's what I feel like. People

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Speaker 1: like the show we're trying to get people look at

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Speaker 1: football differently. You're the Steve Jobs Sports betting think different. Listen,

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Speaker 1: speaking of plus six, let's get to the games, right.

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Speaker 1: We got a full slate Thursday night football. Green Bay

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Speaker 1: Packers at Arizona Cardinals game open to three. Davante Adams,

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Speaker 1: now unlikely to play star receiver for the Packers on

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Speaker 1: the COVID nineteen reserve list. Obviously he's He's Aaron rodgers

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Speaker 1: biggest weapon. The Cardinals have continued to defy what we

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Speaker 1: thought they were. The Packers have played better the past

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Speaker 1: two weeks against admittedly two really bad teams. What do

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Speaker 1: we make of this? I look at this at minus six.

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Speaker 1: I see how well the Cardinals are playing. I see

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Speaker 1: the way Kyler Murray is making plays. I see the

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Speaker 1: way Aaron Rodgers is when he's under pressure, and know

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Speaker 1: that he's without his best receiver, I still like it.

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Speaker 1: At minus six. I know this is this is such

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Speaker 1: a hard game, because you know it is. I love

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Speaker 1: taking dogs. You're getting Aaron Rodgers is a big dog

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Speaker 1: here against you know, Arizona. Yeah, everything you just said

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Speaker 1: just true. It's it's crazy how well they're playing. And again,

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Speaker 1: the Adams movement, to me, it was a big deal.

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Speaker 1: I have him and Chases my highest two greader wide

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Speaker 1: receivers this season. For me to move at a point

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Speaker 1: and a half for a wide receiver is incredibly rare.

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Speaker 1: That's that's how much Adams means this team. So I did.

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Speaker 1: I liked that three. I thought that was a good number.

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Speaker 1: I moved to four and a half. Now that's at six.

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Speaker 1: That means to me, I'm gonna put a half value

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Speaker 1: on green Bay. Yeah, I leaned towards green Bay. But

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Speaker 1: I don't feel like you're getting that much crazy value

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Speaker 1: here because everything you just said so true. I don't

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Speaker 1: know how Ray and Rodgers is gonna do on third down.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't have a safety blanket Adams. It's there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of unknown there where Arizona. It kind of feels

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Speaker 1: like we know what they are. They're a legit team.

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Speaker 1: And Kyler Murray is just the ultimate difference maker. This

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Speaker 1: guy is so slippery, so smart. It doesn't matter their

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Speaker 1: coach might be an idiot. It's it's all working for

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Speaker 1: Arizona right now. I mean they literally have not lost

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Speaker 1: this season, So, um, we can be on opposite side chairs.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna force you take Green Bay, but to me,

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Speaker 1: that's where the value is in this line. It's plus

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Speaker 1: six with them. This is not like Look the last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks, we've taken teams on Thursday nights as

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Speaker 1: part of our best five, and um, I don't see

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Speaker 1: this being one of them. The thing that I worry

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Speaker 1: about what the Packers is they're starting to get more

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Speaker 1: and more love from the market because of what they

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Speaker 1: did at the Bears and because of what they did

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Speaker 1: to the Washington football team, and before that, they had

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Speaker 1: barely beaten the Bengals, and before that they had looked

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Speaker 1: like a team that was struggling mightily in the first

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Speaker 1: three games of the year, including losing in the first game.

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Speaker 1: So uh, Aaron Rodgers is getting pressured like crazy. I

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Speaker 1: watched a lot of this game this past week. He

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Speaker 1: was constantly getting pushed out of the pocket and not

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Speaker 1: looking good doing it. I I was nervous about that

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Speaker 1: cover most of the game. Um so yeah, I'm comfortable

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Speaker 1: with the Cardinals at minus six. And like people talked

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Speaker 1: about how lucky green Bay got, we talked about they

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Speaker 1: were the worst red zone team. They had given up

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Speaker 1: the most touchdowns on football. They're not that bad. It

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Speaker 1: was gonna come down to a medium and that's what

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Speaker 1: happened in that game. Like this, the the Washington football

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Speaker 1: team coudn't score the red zone. That's why green Bay cover.

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Speaker 1: That's pretty simple. But yeah, that's that's a fair statement.

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Speaker 1: They're they're probably a little overvalued right now, just because

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Speaker 1: what they've done last two weeks. A good tea. I

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Speaker 1: did my own little version of of a TikTok meme.

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Speaker 1: There are you on the TikTok? I'm not. I'm a

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Speaker 1: guy in my mid thirties that you know, doesn't doesn't

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Speaker 1: care to check out what teenagers are doing chat mhm,

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Speaker 1: what's funny you think of it that way? I, as

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Speaker 1: a media professional, think about it as the new frontier.

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Speaker 1: Here's an interesting game, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns. If

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Speaker 1: you go to Action Network right now, there's a story

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Speaker 1: the week eight games we bet right away. There were

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Speaker 1: two games listed. We're gonna get to both of them.

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Speaker 1: The first one the Steelers as underdogs. They were actually

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Speaker 1: listed as three and a half point underdogs. Uh that

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Speaker 1: there was concerned people wanted to bet them right away

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Speaker 1: because they were afraid wise guys would come in and

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Speaker 1: take the Steelers and you lose the hook. Steelers a

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half plus four some places getting

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Speaker 1: almost all the bets right now. There's reason to believe

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Speaker 1: the Steelers in the right side here. Yeah, but it's again,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a game where if Baker is playing actually

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Speaker 1: really like the Steelers because he's rushing back, that's not good.

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Speaker 1: That's not good for them. So if this is Baker,

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Speaker 1: I got no issues taking the Steelers here. It's case Keenum.

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Speaker 1: I'm not as much in love with it he had.

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Speaker 1: He's had more time now. They played last week on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: so he's more time to kind of get used to

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Speaker 1: being the number one. I like that. For Cleveland. It

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Speaker 1: feels like the whole public's gonna coming really heavy on

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh just because Cleveland looked that great last Weekend's Denver,

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Speaker 1: But to me, this is Uh, this is one of

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Speaker 1: these all wait and see. If it's Baker, I got

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Speaker 1: no issue taking Pittsburgh, but if it's not, I would

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Speaker 1: stay away. Are you telling me right now that you

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Speaker 1: have the Browns power rated better with Case Keenum than

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield and injured and injured Baker Mayfield? So last

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Speaker 1: week I had it at three and a half when

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Speaker 1: Baker was the starter, they moved the two and a half.

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Speaker 1: I moved it just by a point to case Keenum

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Speaker 1: just because Baker has not been playing well, but frantas

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Speaker 1: to Baker, he's been hurt. So I do think Baker

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Speaker 1: is valued more, but for this, now that he's had

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Speaker 1: time underneath his belt to get reps. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: they're pretty much the same exact quarterback right now because

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Speaker 1: Baker is hurt and it's like he's hurting his team.

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Speaker 1: He's literally a hit away at any point to be

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Speaker 1: out of the game, like he's he barely got hit

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Speaker 1: that hard. He just landed on his shoulder last game

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Speaker 1: he was out, So it's two nerve wracking really back Baker,

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Speaker 1: do you see anything in the Steelers having some time

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Speaker 1: off that makes you think this team is getting better? Uh?

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Speaker 1: They're running the ball a little bit better. Uh, there

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Speaker 1: is value on them in an underdog spot A ra

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Speaker 1: ra Mike Tomlin spot, what ra ra Mike Tomlin spot?

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Speaker 1: We win the game with this cool bodies right here

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Speaker 1: to day, the game to day. I mean, I like

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Speaker 1: him with the points if it's Baker again, because I

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Speaker 1: just think it's a good matchup for them defensively, like

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get after him. That's that's

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Speaker 1: that's all the key right there, Like you can get

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Speaker 1: walk and pressure. Pittsburgh seems like they can win. But

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Speaker 1: Roethlisberger is so bad. I mean, it was a running

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Speaker 1: joke with us last week. You were like, I like

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Speaker 1: big Ben playing against a backup. I kept saying you,

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Speaker 1: big Ben is a backup. This guy is not a

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Speaker 1: starter in this league. So I don't really feel confident

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Speaker 1: back to them. But if I am back to them,

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Speaker 1: it's just because of that defense. There was a moment

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Speaker 1: of clarity. I remember that comment. It's really good, all right,

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Speaker 1: So this is not one that we're going to give

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Speaker 1: heavy consideration to. Last week, you told me that there

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Speaker 1: were two ugly, ugly dogs that we had to play,

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Speaker 1: and I refused to commit the Miami Dolphins at plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half and the New Year Football Giants

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Speaker 1: a plus three lo and behold, you were right about both. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I liked the Dolphins in the beginning to and for

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Speaker 1: some reason we walked away from them, and I can't

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Speaker 1: remember why. But the Dolphins are now on the road

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Speaker 1: at Matt Mitchell's Buffalo Bills. Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 1: The Bills so yo hey, and something south he making

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Speaker 1: it happen. Now the Bills are fourteen point favorites on

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Speaker 1: the road. I kind of feel like this is the past.

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Speaker 1: I know you're gonna bet every game and you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have an opinion on every game, but this doesn't feel

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Speaker 1: like I'm seeing a huge opportunity. Like again, I'd like

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Speaker 1: it better for it was that thirteen year thirteen and

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Speaker 1: a half of Buffalo coming off of by coming off

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Speaker 1: a loss. This is just a great spot for the

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Speaker 1: Bills just to dominate a team that's not that good.

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Speaker 1: But it's a little nerve wracking. Where I thought to

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Speaker 1: have played exactly how I expected to to play last week.

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Speaker 1: He played well at three yards passing four touchdowns against

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Speaker 1: the bad Atlanta defense. The Bills ain't that bad. And

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Speaker 1: at home, you know the weather inch isn't gonna be

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Speaker 1: great up there and in uh, Northern New York in

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Speaker 1: November or late late October. So yeah, that's fair. We

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Speaker 1: can pass on it. I do lean towards the Bills.

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Speaker 1: This is when the truck here plays out like this week.

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Speaker 1: You like the Bills. What do you haven't rated at thirteen?

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Speaker 1: So Inkle, you are getting value right now with Miami.

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Speaker 1: But I'm hoping pros will just come in and bet

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Speaker 1: this summer down so I can get maybe thirteen and

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Speaker 1: a half thirteen, uh with the Bills. What do you

338
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Speaker 1: like about two? I keep watching him and know you're

339
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Speaker 1: saying this. I feel like he's getting junkyards and junk touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I don't look at him and think there's a guy

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Speaker 1: I want to build my team around. He's got no

342
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Speaker 1: wire receivers and his old lines terrible. That's what I

343
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Speaker 1: don't want to get on chat too hard here, but

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Speaker 1: I'm sick. I can't take everyone in the league after

345
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Speaker 1: eight games or nine games of a guy being like, yeah, bust,

346
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Speaker 1: Like that guy's washed up, by the way, who I

347
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Speaker 1: would say he was a bust? Yeah, I'm just saying.

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Speaker 1: It's really like people all of a sudden are being like, uh,

349
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Speaker 1: Mac Jones, Yeah he's legit. You see him beat the

350
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Speaker 1: Jets twice? Wow? Mac Jones, Yeah, he's incredible. He he

351
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Speaker 1: played hard against the Cowboys and the Buccaneers. It's just

352
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Speaker 1: too much like we're too high, too low on these

353
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Speaker 1: kids when they come in so quick, like you need

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Speaker 1: you need, Like Josh Owen, Josh own at two three years,

355
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Speaker 1: I figure out what the hell was? We know he's legit.

356
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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones he sucked now for two three years. We

357
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Speaker 1: know what he is. He's terrible. So I feel like

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Speaker 1: I need more time with these quarterbacks. But you're fair

359
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Speaker 1: to say too has not been good. He hasn't been,

360
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Speaker 1: but you also have to look at the pieces around him.

361
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:14,719
Speaker 1: He has no real help. He's got a terrible old

362
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Speaker 1: line and terrible wide receivers. You know who turns out

363
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Speaker 1: was amazing the backup quarterback for the Buffalo Bills, Mitchell Troubinsky.

364
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Speaker 1: I don't know. We can talk about the Bears and

365
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Speaker 1: if you want. People are hating on them too hard.

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Speaker 1: Haven't they beaten the rate Las Vegas Raiders and the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Two teams are leading their divisions. I get a lot

368
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Speaker 1: of hate. We're not talking about the Bears yet, we

369
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Speaker 1: haven't got into the game. I know. I'm just saying

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Speaker 1: the Bears are getting crushed, and I feel like people

371
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Speaker 1: are underestimating how the Bears are good and bad. You

372
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Speaker 1: can't underestimate them both ways. They're either good. They're They're

373
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Speaker 1: either bad and we overestimated what they were, or they're

374
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Speaker 1: good and we're not giving them enough credit. I happen

375
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Speaker 1: to be on the side of I'm saying week the week,

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Speaker 1: people won't be like they're terrible the next week when

377
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Speaker 1: they beat a team like the Las Vegas Raiders, like

378
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Speaker 1: they're really good. I'm saying it's too much. But that

379
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 1: was a smash spot for the Bears. That was a

380
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Speaker 1: smashed spot for the Bears against the Raiders. Everyone in

381
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Speaker 1: the world knew they were going to win that game. Everybody.

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, This all of a sudden

383
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Speaker 1: became a very interesting game. The Falcons are three point favorites.

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Speaker 1: They've won a couple of games. Now they've got I

385
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Speaker 1: think there're three and three on the year. Last second

386
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Speaker 1: win against Miami bad loss against Washington before that, they

387
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 1: beat the Jets before that. The Panthers are reeling. Man,

388
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: Sam Donald is just terrible and got benched, and we

389
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Speaker 1: love this team in the beginning of the year. This

390
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 1: is gonna be a pros Joe's game. Right now. The

391
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Speaker 1: money's coming in on the Panthers and the bets are

392
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Speaker 1: coming in on the Falcons. Yeah, you got no faith,

393
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Speaker 1: Like this is one of the few games I might

394
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Speaker 1: end up passing her. I'll just bet the Panthers because

395
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Speaker 1: I have to, because it's a good number. But he

396
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 1: looks lost, Sam Donald, Like he literally looks lost. He's

397
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 1: just throwing picks in a double coverage. It's just bad

398
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Speaker 1: and the same reason we like Miami last week, we

399
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Speaker 1: like to fade Matt Ryan. As soon as people started

400
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: believing in Matt Ryan, that's when we fade him, and

401
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 1: it worked out for us last week. I guess I'll

402
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 1: do it again this week. But now it's like this

403
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 1: probably wouldn'ta make my top ten bets. I I just

404
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Speaker 1: I hate it. It's ugly, ugly, ugly game where we

405
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Speaker 1: don't know what quarterback we're getting Sam Donald's, So how

406
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 1: can I really bet this and know what I'm getting.

407
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:38,400
Speaker 1: And the scary thing is you bet on the Falcons

408
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: and it's very possible that Sam Donald's backup comes in right,

409
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 1: and who actually, you know, could be better than Sam Donald.

410
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Speaker 1: I'm reading Man Mitchell's thing. I can't multitask what did

411
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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell say? He's it's actually a good a really

412
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Speaker 1: good point. A team favored by the touchdowner more this

413
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Speaker 1: season is undefeated. They have not lost, which is the

414
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Speaker 1: longest streak since I leave, like two thousand and five,

415
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Speaker 1: two thousand six, So basically this year, if you're just

416
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 1: some Joe Schmo and you've just been betting favorites money

417
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 1: lines and money line parlays, you're killing it. I mean,

418
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Speaker 1: this is the longest active streaks since two thousand and

419
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Speaker 1: five that a favorite seven or more points hasn't lost

420
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Speaker 1: straight up. So something to keep your eyeing. People out

421
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Speaker 1: there were way overdue for one of these big dogs

422
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Speaker 1: that went out right. Also, Matt Mitchell in our Slack

423
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Speaker 1: message to us both reminded us that everyone is left

424
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Speaker 1: in survivor pools, including us, because we took the Patriots

425
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Speaker 1: this past week and we will pick our new survivor

426
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 1: pool entrant on Thursday and we got lucky. Though a

427
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 1: couple of idiots took Carolina in ours. So a couple

428
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 1: of people try to be too smart and they got burned.

429
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 1: How many people are left in the survivor pool that

430
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 1: you and I are in? I want to say four k? Wow?

431
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: That many? Yeah? I mean we started with eight k though,

432
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 1: So even though it's been really chalky, half been knocked out.

433
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: And that's again people forget and they forget to put

434
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: their picks. You know. Oh boy, this, I don't know

435
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 1: how we do it. Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets.

436
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: Here's something really interesting. The look aheadline on this. I

437
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: don't know when this number is from. I don't know

438
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: if it's from preseason or whatever. Last week, Jets as

439
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 1: one point favorites at home and they are now ten

440
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 1: point underdogs. It's a perfect line because this was a

441
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: trap spot, and if Zach Wilson was playing in this game,

442
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 1: we would be all in on the Jets to win outright,

443
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: to cover everything. I got no idea what to do

444
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 1: with this number. I got no idea what to do

445
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: with this quarterback, some white guy. I think his last

446
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: name is white. So I love saying that joke. Uh,

447
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what to do there.

448
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 1: The Jets are They're terrible, the same reason we like

449
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: to them against Tennessee. It was just a complete spot

450
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 1: and they that's the only game they've covered in one

451
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: this year was that Jetskins Tennessee at home. So man

452
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 1: that I love this as a trap spot for this

453
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 1: banging team, but it's hard to do it now. Like

454
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on the nine and a half, whatever

455
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: the number is, I'm gonna betting it because it's the

456
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 1: Bengals are really good. But are there the top three,

457
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: top four team in all the NFL? Probably not, so

458
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 1: them blowing out the Jets was unlikely. But now the Jets,

459
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna be able to score.

460
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 1: So it's gonna be pretty easy for the Bengals to

461
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 1: beat them by a lot of points. So I don't know.

462
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna make it. Do it, Chad, but I'll

463
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: be betting the Jets. Unfortunately with a backup quarterback I

464
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: know nothing about it. Does it does present an interesting dilemma.

465
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: Right blindly you bet this number, you just do it,

466
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 1: Like Bangos are coming off the bet of the franchise

467
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: in the last what four or five years, that's the

468
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: biggest when the franchise the last four or five years. Yeah,

469
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 1: you almost have to bet the Jets here so gross.

470
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 1: I wish we make it one of where like Foxhold

471
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 1: bets or something. It's just something gross. I don't know

472
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 1: if we would call it. This is like, to me,

473
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: this is the grossest bet we've made this year. We've

474
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: had gross bets, but this, this is the grossest. It's

475
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: honestly irresponsible to ask people to commit to this. I

476
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: think you and I can think about it for Thursday,

477
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: and on Thursday, if we still think it's a Simon

478
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: says or a big balls or a hornet's nest, we

479
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: can layer it in there. But I'm hoping that over

480
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 1: the next seven eight games we find something that feels

481
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 1: a little bit more actionable for our listeners than bet

482
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: the fucking Jets. Now we have great lines as we

483
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 1: don't worry. We're not gonna force this one in because

484
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 1: right now we haven't found any game that we'd like.

485
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: We haven't every game we talked about. We want to pass.

486
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 1: That's true, that's true. We're getting there, though, don't worry.

487
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 1: I got a couple and now a word from our

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494
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496
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517
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520
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522
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523
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 1: to the show. Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts. Titans are

524
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: one or a half point favorites on the road at

525
00:26:55,400 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 1: Indie Simon says. Simon says, policy this podcast, pull your

526
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: car over. Bet on the Colts they will be and

527
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 1: all of my bets. Like again, I I joke all

528
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: the time my bets of the year, this might not

529
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: be one of those big bets. As soon as I

530
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 1: saw this line, I loved it. It's the perfect spot.

531
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: I love it so much. The Colts always beat Tennessee,

532
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: and they always beat them, especially at home, even when

533
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: even when Peyton left, even with Andrew luck and whatever

534
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 1: first set the next year, they always beat Tennessee at home.

535
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 1: Matchup wise, this is the dream. This is literally the dream.

536
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 1: The Colts run game is one of the best in football.

537
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 1: Tennessee has one of the worst run defenses. Their secondary

538
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 1: is still incredibly banged up. Everything that happened last week

539
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: with Kansas City, it wasn't about the Tennessee Titans, it

540
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: was about the Kansas City Chiefs. That was a Kansas

541
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 1: City Chiefs and meltdown. Uh that I watched that whole

542
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 1: game because I had a lot of ride on that

543
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: money line parlay we did with them in the Bengals,

544
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: and I needed I needed one of them to win

545
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 1: out right. Um and luckily they both came through, but

546
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 1: it's this is such a typical line when they hung this.

547
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: As soon as I saw this, I knew what they

548
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 1: were doing there. Like I love the books because they

549
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 1: lay these traps and they've been getting smacked around these

550
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,959
Speaker 1: sports books last four to five weeks. We're gonna talk

551
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 1: about there's a bunch of games that are get right

552
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: games for the sports books. Put this to the top

553
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 1: of the list. This is my favorite get right games

554
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: for the sports books. So you're gonna plus dog at

555
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: Home in the Colts, which, again, this is one of

556
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 1: these games where, like we told you last week, you

557
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: bet the Bengals to win the division like we like

558
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: we did, this is not one of those You're gonna

559
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: bet the Colts with us this week. You have to

560
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: bet the Colts win the division because this is one

561
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,719
Speaker 1: of these games I could flip the division. So I

562
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: love the Colts at this number. Yeah. But by the way,

563
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 1: that's the mistake I made last week, is I remember

564
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: you saying that very clearly, and I bet the Bengals

565
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: right away, and I forgot to bet them to win

566
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: the division. You didn't get a tend to one, so

567
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: I didn't get it oh God. And like as the

568
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: game was kicking off, I'm like, oh ship, and I

569
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: go to log in and I couldn't bet it. Yeah

570
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 1: they took it down. Yeah it's down a three to one,

571
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 1: two to one in certain books. Yeah, I know that

572
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 1: that's a miss buddy. Damn it. Well, I'll tell you

573
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: right now. You know what I did just do while

574
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 1: you were prattling away. I did go on to the

575
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 1: fandue lapse s where to God? And um, I bet

576
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 1: on the Colts plus one and a half, my man,

577
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: and you gotta sprinkle a little bit on the division,

578
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: little bit, little sprinkle of a taste, a little bit

579
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: of salt, a little bit of sesame seeds. You know,

580
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: you can do your little loan uh, your little um

581
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: you know everything bagel seasoning on this on this game.

582
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: I love it. So I'm guaranteeing people always go you guys,

583
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 1: switch your picks. I don't care if the greatest prone

584
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 1: the world calls me up like whoever and they say, no,

585
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: you have to take Tennessee not doing it. Love love,

586
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: love the cults. This week. The next thing, I know

587
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 1: you're gonna tell me you want to bet the Bears

588
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: plus three and a half at home against the Niners,

589
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: and I would do it. You know, why, do you know? Why?

590
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: Tell me Matt NIGGI has COVID. That's terrible San Francisco.

591
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: Forty Niners at Chicago Bears, no Bears at home? Baby,

592
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: We love the Bears at home. Maybe you guys will

593
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: reach out to me and say that we're walking to

594
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 1: a sharp trap here, but I don't care. I love

595
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: this number. I bet it when I opened at three

596
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: and a half. Four, I'll bet it again as long

597
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: as it stays above three. It's just a good, smart number.

598
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: The Bears here aren't as bad as they looked against Tampa.

599
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: That was just the worst possible matchup they could have.

600
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: And um, I mean what we said is so right.

601
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 1: Like we we were off the fort and Company of

602
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: the year. We bet they're under a season win totals.

603
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: We just didn't trust this Fort Anders team and we've

604
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: seen it. Like Jimmy g there's a reason they drafted

605
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: a QB third the third pick overall. He just ain't it.

606
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 1: So if it's Jimmy is a start. I got no

607
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: issue taking the Bears here plus three and a half.

608
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: All right? Well, um, I thought the Bears looked pretty heartless,

609
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: um and confused, and their defense is social distancing as

610
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 1: if it's April of and they can't seem to defend

611
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: anyone beyond five yards, and they were throwing punches and

612
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: really looks completely out of sorts. I don't even know

613
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: if Allen Robinson is still on the team, Like, honestly,

614
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: that's how ineffective he's been as a fan. It's so

615
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: disheartening to see. Now it's really bad. I'm not gonna

616
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: deny that it is really bad, but you have to

617
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: take this number. This is such a good bounce back

618
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 1: spot for this team. Okay, as here, I'm sure where

619
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: the Bears are, go the dogs, but don't coulm them up.

620
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 1: You know, it's absurd really that we would even have

621
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: to waste time comparing ourselves with that crime written red hole.

622
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: But give me what it's rated at for you three.

623
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 1: That's why if it got the two and a half, Like,

624
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be taking Bears moneyline, I'm not gonna

625
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 1: be taking the two and a half just because everything

626
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: you just said, this team they straight up gave up

627
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: last week. It was bad. I can't fall through there.

628
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: But just as a professional, I have to bet a

629
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: home dog in this position playing a four ninary scene

630
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: that's still getting so much public love even though they

631
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: have not done anything to earn it. This year. I mean,

632
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 1: I saw some stances like Shanahan's career winning winning percentages

633
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: fourty three, like the Yeah, so I might think he's

634
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: a genius and he's some great offensive coordinator, he's never

635
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: done it. And I got people's excuse for him. He's

636
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: never had a quarterback like he got Jimmy g to

637
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. That's all that is fair. I get

638
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 1: that argument. But at some point you have to start

639
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: putting this on to Kyle Shanahan. And at this point

640
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 1: I gotta do that. So I gotta know, is you're

641
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 1: taking this number, you are hating on Kyle Shanahan, who's

642
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: like the like the analytics geeks. God, both of us

643
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,719
Speaker 1: would give up. I mean, I you checked wouldn't give

644
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 1: up a child. I'd give up a lot of things

645
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: that are important to me to have him as my

646
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: head coach. So I'm kind of talking on both sides

647
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: of my mouth hating on the guy. But to me,

648
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 1: he's a million times better than Nick Sirianni. So I

649
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: would love to have him as my head coach. All right,

650
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 1: then we're gonna put him in the list. I am

651
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: happy to do it. I'm happy to root for the Bears.

652
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: Find reasons to root for the Bears. Give me the

653
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: Bears plus three and a half. We're putting them in

654
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 1: Baboo Eagles. However, Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions. We were

655
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: spot on about this Lions game last week. We said,

656
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: if we're gonna have to bet any one of these

657
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: teams that were double digit underdogs, we were going with

658
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: the Lions because, as you pointed out, this team does

659
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: not give up. They were down thirty four to three

660
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 1: two weeks ago, went for the two point conversion after

661
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: scoring a touchdown, then went for the onside kick. They

662
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: were calling time outs until the end and then long behold.

663
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: That's exactly what they did against the Rams, score first

664
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: on side kick, fake punt, steel possessions. It was like,

665
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: you know, Jared Goff interception by Jalen Ramsey, which to

666
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: me felt like the worst way for them to lose.

667
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 1: It was golf, like that's just you know, you root

668
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 1: so hard for the guy they have, like the such

669
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: a good player who probably thinks golf is such an

670
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 1: idiot do that at the end of the game that

671
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 1: hurt the last seem just not stop now, and they

672
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 1: deserve I think it comes our way though, for keeping

673
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 1: golf and not taking fields or mac Jones like we

674
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 1: know golf was. Um, there is no sicker feeling than

675
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: having the choice money line that first half and you're

676
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 1: up ten nothing and you still felt like you're gonna

677
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: lose that bet because it's Jared Golf and it's third

678
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: and three, and it feels like it's third and fifty,

679
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 1: Like I can't of the ball four yards sometimes. So man,

680
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: I hate Detroit. Um, there's such a ce saw team.

681
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: One week they'll play good, they'll come back, they'll play amazing.

682
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 1: The next week they will completely fall apart and do nothing.

683
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 1: It looks like a team that is oh and six.

684
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 1: So if we're going by that metric, this is a

685
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 1: down week for Detroit. For some reason. They cover and

686
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 1: then they don't cover. They cover them, they don't cover.

687
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 1: So I coming into this, I wanted to take Detroit. Like.

688
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: The Eagles suck. The Eagles defense is terrible. The Oakland,

689
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: I mean Las Vegas creators didn't have Darren Waller or Jacobs,

690
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: and to me, that was like, again, that's why I

691
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: couldn't fault you for a lot of love and Eagles.

692
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: That was such a smart number to take a team's

693
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 1: missing their two best offensive weapons. Eagles defense couldn't stop them.

694
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 1: They literally could not stop them that whole game. So yeah,

695
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 1: I look at this number. My first instincts is to

696
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 1: the fade the lines here and take the Eagles, who

697
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 1: are just a little bit not as terrible. But I mean,

698
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: this is just a good number. It's plus three, that's

699
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: what I had it as, don't have any crazy value.

700
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: But we'll see as the week goes on here. I

701
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: can't see this being one of our five. The Eagles

702
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 1: are such an interesting team. They come out and play

703
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: great in the first series every single week, and then

704
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 1: it's like they can't make a single adjustment off of

705
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 1: the adjustments that the defenses make. They just don't know

706
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 1: what to do. And then at the end of the game,

707
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 1: when it's sort of a free for all and the

708
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 1: other team has let up the gas a little bit,

709
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: that's when they can finally come back and play. That's

710
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 1: how you know that that whoever is calling the place,

711
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 1: and I think it is Sirianni doesn't know what the

712
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: funk he's doing. No, And there's something to this, like

713
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: I don't want to be an agis in person. I

714
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 1: hate saying like older guys should have these kind of jobs.

715
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 1: This feels like such a typical situation for this Eagles team,

716
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 1: where they got a young DC, they got a young

717
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: head coach. All the guys in this coaching group, we're

718
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 1: all a bunch of young guys. They completely seem like

719
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: they're out of their element here, like they just they're

720
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 1: just not into it. Where you see these other teams

721
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: they hire these guys who've been around the block. Yeah,

722
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: they might do some stupid old timey stuff, but they

723
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: just get it. They get football, they get certain things

724
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 1: and different schemes you need to run. So I do

725
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: look at this Egos team that that they might be

726
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 1: a one and done. This coaching staff. I love that

727
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: you're willing to support the old people. I'm all about

728
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: old people, man, I I I've learned. I've learned, especially

729
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 1: in the sports betting world, age truly is wisdom. There.

730
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 1: They might say some stuff you disagree with, you think

731
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: they're stupid, but if you just shut up, and listen.

732
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 1: You'll learn these guys usually know what they're talking about.

733
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: That's why they've been in this industry so long. So

734
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 1: that is definitely something I try to pass along to people,

735
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: is that you might think you have all the answers,

736
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:35,760
Speaker 1: and you might think you know what you're talking about,

737
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: you probably don't. I am more confident and less in

738
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 1: the need to prove it at fifty than I ever

739
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: was at thirty. That's fact. I'm always trying even even

740
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: when I made it, I'm still trying to prove it.

741
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: So it's definitely a different mindset. It is. It totally

742
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: is Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans. The Texas are

743
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half point dogs. They gave it a

744
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: go against the Cardinals. That was a game where in

745
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: the first half they tried so hard they really did.

746
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 1: Do we think to Rod Taylor is going to play

747
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: this week because that changes the calculus on this handicap

748
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: for sure. If he's playing, people guarantee you this is one.

749
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 1: I mean Chad's five. We you have to go look

750
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: back at the earlier year his splits with this team.

751
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 1: I think they have one more touchdown. He played only

752
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 1: a game and a half. They've only scored one more

753
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 1: touchdown in the six weeks he's been out. Then the

754
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 1: game and a half he played, he he he made

755
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 1: this offense go. And I would love for him to

756
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,280
Speaker 1: come back because that sparks some life into this team.

757
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: I love it if it stays at four team, when

758
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 1: he comes back in our contest or one of our five,

759
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 1: I love, love, love Houston in this position. But if not,

760
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: then we pass. Even though it's a massive, massive home underdog.

761
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,439
Speaker 1: I'm done lighting money off fire for Davis Mills. I can't.

762
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 1: I can't do it anymore. Hey, at least you got

763
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 1: his name right. Yeah, there we go, Like he he

764
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 1: paid me out for that Patriots game. He should have

765
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: won that game. I would forever been in love with

766
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 1: the guy. He didn't. I should have learned right then

767
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 1: and there. This guy is a complete joke. But no

768
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: can I will not be betting him as a big

769
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: dog again this week. Well tell me why speaking to

770
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 1: the Patriots because I don't want to spend too much

771
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 1: time on the Texas in the Rams. It's so weird though,

772
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: like a couple of years ago, we wouldn't have even

773
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: hesitated on a lot of these games. As dogs, the

774
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 1: Lions at three and a half um, the Taxans at

775
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,359
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half, Like it wouldn't even have been

776
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 1: a conversation the Jets, you know, say, what was Zach

777
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: Wilson like not even hesitating on some of these huge

778
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: home dogs. The calculus and all this has changed the

779
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 1: past few years a little bit. I mean I still

780
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: skew towards home dogs, but I've been trying to go

781
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 1: with the times here, Like the public is dominating, so

782
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 1: there's sometimes where it's like I'm getting crazy value I

783
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 1: but I need to take a step back and think

784
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: to myself, Man, they're just not covering. And that's what's

785
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: been happening this year. These these dogs just aren't covering

786
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 1: against these really chalk favorites. You're revolving. I adjust with

787
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:19,800
Speaker 1: the times, whatever has happened. I try to adjust with

788
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 1: what's happening. That's how you stay modern and relevant. I

789
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 1: learned that on TikTok, New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers.

790
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 1: The Chargers five and a half point favorites. They're off

791
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: of by they got slacked the last time we saw them,

792
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 1: which was a totally smashed spot for the Rabits. I

793
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,879
Speaker 1: think we you and I were aligned on that from

794
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 1: the second. No, we weren't. Actually I loved it. You

795
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: were afraid of it because you're a coward, and you're young,

796
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 1: and you don't have the confidence and wisdom of age.

797
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, professional coward. I take the Chargers all day here.

798
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 1: Of course, of course we love the Chargers here. Mac

799
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: Jones on the road after big fifty point when at

800
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 1: home against the Jets. I love the faded position here.

801
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 1: We take the Chargers not just because they're off of

802
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 1: bye but because this is probably peak peak value um

803
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 1: where everyone's just the public is just feeling great about

804
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 1: this Patriots team. So as long as it stays under

805
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 1: six six and a half, again we talked about that's

806
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 1: such a key number. We got no issue taking the

807
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 1: Chargers team. The only fear is the fourth down regression man.

808
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,479
Speaker 1: That was bad against the Ravens last time they played.

809
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 1: They could not get picked up a fourth down. So

810
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 1: it's always a little scary with back on the Chargers team.

811
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: But after a bye week and I get right spot

812
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 1: this because this is one of these we're probably betting

813
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 1: on comes Sunday. Yeah, I don't know why. Why wouldn't

814
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 1: everybody see this, Like, how is this not one of

815
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 1: those things that everyone is is gonna notice? Do you

816
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 1: know what I mean? It's it's a team that was

817
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:57,239
Speaker 1: pretty public and people were pretty excited about before they

818
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: lost to the Ravens. We we recognize what was happening. Um,

819
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:07,320
Speaker 1: the bets on the Chargers of the money, it feels

820
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 1: like the bookmakers made a bad line. That's it's a

821
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: good line. It's honestly, it's because the Patriots can run

822
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 1: the ball, and we've seen it with this Chargers team.

823
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 1: They can be rain on. So I get why they

824
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 1: hung it. I can see, Like again, I watched the

825
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 1: money come in on it. It seems a couple of

826
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:27,439
Speaker 1: pros have hit this with the Patriots. But I just again,

827
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 1: I think they're thinking themselves. You know what, The public's

828
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: gon overvalue the Chargers team because, like you just said it,

829
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 1: for that Ravens team, there are people's favorite team to

830
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. People are really hyping them up.

831
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 1: So um, it's it's a fair number to me, as

832
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 1: long as it's below six. Again, that's that's such a

833
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 1: key number nowadays, six is a key number. More games

834
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: landing on sixth and seven. It's the new six? Is

835
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 1: the new seven? It really is. The Jaguars finally won

836
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 1: a game. Uh. They are now on the road at

837
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 1: the reeling free losses in a row Seattle Seahawks. Jacksonville

838
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 1: Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks. Gino Smith. I saw us stat

839
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:06,840
Speaker 1: following at Action Network gags Q six and one against

840
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: the spread and primetime games in his career, which is

841
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:12,360
Speaker 1: amazing because I can't believe he's played seven primetime games.

842
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: Um uh, since he hasn't played a game in eight

843
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 1: years until this past year, until these past few weeks.

844
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 1: Three and a half points Seahawks at home? Oh, Gino

845
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: Smith the greatest West Virginia quarterback ever? Uh yeah, guys,

846
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: unbelievable against the spread? Hate this number? I hate. I

847
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 1: have to take the Jacks. Why are they doing this

848
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: to me? Chat? Why? Uh? Coming off a bye week,

849
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 1: Urbans had his time with the bar with that blonde girl. Okay,

850
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 1: they've had their downtime. Now they're getting right this week.

851
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do, Like, it's three and

852
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 1: a half too horrible teams? How do I not take

853
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 1: the ugly three and a half dog? The public will

854
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 1: be coming in heavy on Seahawks. Everyone hates the Jaguars,

855
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 1: hate that I have to bet the Jaguars. So I'm

856
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: not gonna make it anywhere like Foxhill any of that stuff,

857
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: because I can't do it anymore with the fans of

858
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 1: the show. But yes, Jags three and a half, Jags

859
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 1: money line, I'll be bet in all of it. We're

860
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 1: gonna have to go into the Foxhill with somebody, buddy, Oh,

861
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: it's coming up by far. The Jack Seahawks is the

862
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: corner TV game. Like I I thought there were no

863
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 1: bets on this Carolina Falcons game. Forget it, this Jack

864
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 1: Seahawks game. Nobody wants a piece of it. You're messing out.

865
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 1: I I really do think Jack a good spot here.

866
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: That's the most disgusting thing you've ever said to me,

867
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 1: and off the air you have said some pretty disgusting

868
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 1: things to me. I think this game might go higher.

869
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 1: Do you think it'll go above three and a half?

870
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: It could because like public is gonna come in, so

871
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 1: have you. Like, no one likes bend the Jaguars again.

872
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 1: Every time we take them. It's literally a hundred mentions

873
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 1: each time, people yelling at me because they just hate

874
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 1: betting the Jaguars. I get it, they're awful, but this

875
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 1: numbers over valued. We've seen the Seahawks team has yet

876
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 1: to win without Russell Wilson. So you're giving me three

877
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: and a half with an ugly dog. I gotta take it.

878
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 1: Buccaneers qb QT, Tom Terrific, Tom loves Tuddies visiting the Saints.

879
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: Saints are five point underdogs at home. This is a

880
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: dreadful team. Really, like you're you're seeing what a brilliant

881
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 1: coach Sean Payton is. Difference between Sean Payton and Kyle Shanahan.

882
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 1: Sean Payton, you're getting shitty quarterbacks. He's still finding ways

883
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: to win. Kyle Shannahan, you're getting shretty quarterbacks. He's getting

884
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: credit for his team looking good but not actually winning.

885
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints. If I've learned

886
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 1: anything in my life, this is the kind of time

887
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 1: you get everybody named Chat and you're hopping a foxhel

888
00:45:54,480 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 1: and you bet the Saints. Let's clide down into the foxhole.

889
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 1: We gotta bet this, buddy. Come on, you cannot be

890
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:10,720
Speaker 1: telling me we're jumping into the foxhole with Tom Hanks

891
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 1: and everybody else, and we're gonna try to save Jameis

892
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 1: Winston and the New Orleans Saints as home underdogs in

893
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 1: this spot. You've allowed no time for analysis or decision making.

894
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: Can we get serious now? Saints look absolutely horrible last night.

895
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 1: They couldn't do anything right. Tampa Bay just won by

896
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:32,479
Speaker 1: thirty odd points. They've never looked better. Tom's never looked better.

897
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: They're getting guys back this week. They're getting they should

898
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,919
Speaker 1: be getting a b back. Maybe Gronk will be back. Man.

899
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: The public is going to love, love, love, love love.

900
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 1: Tampa had this number three and a half. I saw

901
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:46,839
Speaker 1: it open. I think a four or four and a half.

902
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 1: Who sports books are gonna be getting hammered on this

903
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: Tampa line, So I get it. People. You've you've been

904
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 1: killing it the last three or four weeks, just absolutely

905
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 1: killing the sports books. This screams trap. Everything about this

906
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: line is a trap. Everyone's gonna have this in their

907
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 1: money line, parlay all third in their teasers across the zero.

908
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 1: They didn't care. Everyone's been Tampa this week. Chad, you

909
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: gotta just hold your nose and bet New Orleans here.

910
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: You gotta trust this number Tampa if they win this game.

911
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 1: They winning by a field goal. They're not blowing the

912
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 1: Saints team out. The Saints last year they matched up

913
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: so well both times against the Buccaneers. So everything that

914
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 1: the Saints do well in defense, it counteracts what this

915
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay team does well on offense. So love, love

916
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,439
Speaker 1: this number. As long as stays above four, I'm happy

917
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 1: to take it. Well, that's what I was gonna say, Like,

918
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers have not played a defense like this so

919
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 1: far this year. The Eagles, they were pretty much dominating

920
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 1: that game. The Dolphins are terrible. The Patriots are the

921
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: one team where they had a struggle. They didn't they

922
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 1: didn't cover the motion on the road though, That's what

923
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 1: we're about to go through it. It's on the road

924
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 1: is where we're seeing Tampa have trouble. They lost to

925
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 1: the Rams on the road. Uh, I think you're right. No,

926
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:08,320
Speaker 1: it is like I've had multiple people reach out to

927
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 1: me about that, and that was why I was so

928
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 1: heavy on Tampa last week. Now, it was just because

929
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 1: of the Baron matchup. They've just played really well at

930
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 1: home and on the road they play close, stinky games,

931
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 1: ugly games. I mean, we just talked about Eagles are

932
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,719
Speaker 1: horrible Eagles back door tough. So it's I don't think

933
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 1: the Saints are as terrible as the Eagles, so I

934
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: do again, I think you're getting a good number here people.

935
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: It's I I understand. It's That's why I try to

936
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,479
Speaker 1: tell people the less you watch a football the easier

937
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:36,799
Speaker 1: it is that bet this, because after watching that game

938
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 1: last night, it's really hard to convince people you have

939
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 1: to bet the Saints here, but you do. This is

940
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 1: a perfect spot to take this team. I love your courage.

941
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 1: I'm going in where the foxhol cover me, cover me.

942
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 1: Washington football team at Denver Broncos. The Washington football team

943
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 1: three point dogs. Gross, so gross. I don't know, like

944
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 1: made this line three or I think I'm at a

945
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,319
Speaker 1: two and a half. So I guess I could say

946
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: the values on the Washington football team. But I hate

947
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: this nine. Like if I'm gonna bet Teddy, I went

948
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 1: Teddy being underdog and I want to be a favorite

949
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 1: at home. And I feel like that was that there

950
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 1: gave everything Washington last week with the Green Bay they

951
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 1: couldn't even cover I mean bad, just a bad team.

952
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: So no no real feeling on this game. I'd probably

953
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 1: just stay away the other game that we wrote about

954
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 1: an Action network dot com. I wrote, I said, in

955
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: the beginning, we had two games from weekend that we

956
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 1: were betting right away. The Steelers against the Browns was one,

957
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 1: and we like the Steelers. The Cowboys at the Vikings

958
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 1: is the other, and we bet the Cowboys. What say you,

959
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings, You fools? Of course I

960
00:49:56,640 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: love the Vikings Vikings at Home as an underdog. You

961
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 1: bet this every time, people. I believe in Zimmer's career,

962
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:05,359
Speaker 1: it's hitting it over sixty seven front sixty seven percent.

963
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:09,239
Speaker 1: Clip Vikings at Home as a dog every prime time.

964
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: They're getting less than ten percent of the bet less

965
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:15,240
Speaker 1: ten percent of the money. Love love, love, love love again.

966
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 1: I'm telling you people, this is the trap week. They're

967
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: they're getting all their money back this week Las Vegas.

968
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:23,320
Speaker 1: They've they've been given it away to you in jobs.

969
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 1: This is a get right week for them. Everyone of

970
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: their grandma is gonna have their parley tied to this

971
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 1: bet on Sunday and night. Everyone's gonna end their night

972
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 1: with cowboys money line cowboys that cover this number. God,

973
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: I hate doing it. Um. If it wasn't for the Colts.

974
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 1: This would be my biggest bet of the week. I

975
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:43,240
Speaker 1: I love the Vikings. You're kidding me? Yeah, and again

976
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are undefeated a t S two. It's everything

977
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 1: just points to you. Take Minnesota here. Like again, I

978
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:52,359
Speaker 1: bet Cowboys went Super Bowl. I think they're a great team.

979
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,839
Speaker 1: Trap spot. This is a classic trap spot. They're gonna

980
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 1: be getting all the love and a prime time matchup here.

981
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:01,839
Speaker 1: So I can't tell you how much I do love

982
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: this Minnesota matchup. But is there other than this situation.

983
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: It's a great situation. Outside of the situation, you gotta

984
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 1: look at the analysis. Is there anything in the analysis

985
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 1: that says, oh yeah, this makes sense the Vikings like

986
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 1: takeaway any success the Cowboys had. Look at the bad

987
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: luck the Vikings have had a little bit of that. No,

988
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 1: they're a little bit of that. I mean the number

989
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 1: is if you want to get into it, it's honestly

990
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 1: about the run metrics with you know, Dalvi McCook at

991
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 1: home and this run style against this Cowboys team, which

992
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to run it on. Also the Cowboys,

993
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:39,720
Speaker 1: it's regression, like their turnover rate, it's absurd, like digs

994
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 1: every other game is how to pick six. That's just

995
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 1: not sustainable. We've never seen anything like that NFL history. Doc.

996
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 1: I know he's playing out of his mind. That's the

997
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 1: only fear in this matchup where all the stats point

998
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,760
Speaker 1: towards Doc like he's in an MVP season. His team's

999
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:55,400
Speaker 1: down by a touch inner two, you really don't have

1000
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 1: any fear because Dack's gonna come back. Like they have

1001
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 1: arguably the three best receivers on football. So if you're

1002
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 1: just looking at the math on paper, it's a good line.

1003
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 1: I had this line of two. It's two and a half. Now,

1004
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 1: that's that's a good number by the books, but man,

1005
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 1: it's it just screams trap. Everything I look at on

1006
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 1: paper that's just screams a trap. So I have to

1007
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 1: trust my sticks here and take this Minnesota team at home. Well,

1008
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 1: do you know, if for no other reason, I love

1009
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:26,359
Speaker 1: when we take the Minnesota Vikings so I can sing

1010
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:33,239
Speaker 1: We've got the Minnesota Vikings. I know it's our Thursday show,

1011
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 1: but I'll save it for Thursday. I'll save it. Chat

1012
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 1: is a heart out. I got a heart out. Dude.

1013
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 1: You're so media. Listen to you, You're so media. All

1014
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:46,879
Speaker 1: of a sudden. Last game on the board the Monday

1015
00:52:46,960 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: night game New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs. The

1016
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:06,240
Speaker 1: Giants are ten point underdogs against the get right Kansas

1017
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: City Chiefs. Every fiber in my body wants to fade

1018
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:12,400
Speaker 1: the Giants, like after a big win at home, not

1019
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 1: even a close one they blew out Carolina. But we

1020
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 1: can't do it, Chad, how do we keep how do

1021
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:19,840
Speaker 1: we how do we make money? Here? All we do

1022
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 1: is bet against the Chiefs. It's been serving us so

1023
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 1: well the last two years. We can't stop doing it. Yeah,

1024
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 1: there's nothing about me that wants to bet against that

1025
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,320
Speaker 1: wants to bet against the Giants here. It feels like

1026
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones obviously last week at home. There's always that story.

1027
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 1: Bet him on the road, bet against him at home.

1028
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 1: I'm never like a huge believer in those systems. I

1029
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 1: don't find there's anything tangible there um, But I do

1030
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 1: think this is the right spot for the Giants, Like

1031
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 1: they're just not They shouldn't be ten point underdogs. This

1032
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 1: Chiefs team that just isn't very good right now. That's

1033
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 1: the biggest thing that goes Who who the hell are

1034
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 1: the Chiefs to be fair by that many points. Um. Again,

1035
00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 1: we could get unlucky and they could have them melt

1036
00:53:57,640 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: down the Giants in the second half, just like Washington didn't.

1037
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 1: Washington did at home against his chief's team. But you

1038
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:04,800
Speaker 1: can't bet on that kind of stuff. You have to

1039
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:06,279
Speaker 1: bet on what you're looking at. If you're just looking

1040
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:09,760
Speaker 1: at pure numbers and value, this number at most should

1041
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:11,880
Speaker 1: be six. You're getting three and a half points of

1042
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: value with the Giants here. So yeah, I love the Giants.

1043
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 1: That's just the fear, like you just talked about. It's

1044
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 1: a stupid saying, but the numbers prove it out. He's

1045
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:24,439
Speaker 1: terrible at home. He's good on the road, Daniel Jones.

1046
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 1: So if I wasn't looking at those splits, i'd have

1047
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 1: no issues betterness. But you have to look at the

1048
00:54:29,960 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 1: data and he's just not good at home. So I

1049
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 1: do love this number, but it's not gonna be one

1050
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 1: of my bigger belts. All right. Well, we've narrowed down

1051
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:38,800
Speaker 1: the board quite a bit. We got a bunch of

1052
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:42,800
Speaker 1: games that we're gonna be looking at um as we

1053
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 1: head into Thursday. We're gonna keep an eye on the

1054
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 1: Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. We are gonna keep an

1055
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 1: eye maybe on uh, the Bengals and the Jets. Um

1056
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,439
Speaker 1: we love, Simon said, is go bet the Colts plus

1057
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 1: one and a half. I've already done that on FanDuel

1058
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 1: on my app while we recorded the show. We're gonna

1059
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 1: do the Bears plus three and a half. You know,

1060
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:15,360
Speaker 1: that's just what we're gonna doing. We still like the

1061
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:18,319
Speaker 1: Chargers minus five and a half. We're on the fence

1062
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 1: about the Eagles and Lines. I'm sure we'll pick that

1063
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:22,640
Speaker 1: one up. You're trying to convince me the jack to

1064
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 1: the right side. We both love the Saints against the

1065
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:28,440
Speaker 1: Bucks at home, the Vikes plus two against Dallas, and

1066
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 1: the Giants plus ten. It's gonna be harder to narrow

1067
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 1: this down than we think. Like you just reading off

1068
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,839
Speaker 1: the list, it feels like a really good sharp week.

1069
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 1: Like man, the public has had an incredible run your

1070
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 1: last three or four weeks. The books know what they're doing.

1071
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 1: They're laying traps. So I love the games you just

1072
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 1: read off Weligh in some traps, what's our scooch roulette? Pick?

1073
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 1: Time to take down the Hops? When all hope is lost,

1074
00:55:54,600 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 1: all this left is relief. Well, let's play Scott. You

1075
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 1: won last week. You had the packers eye of the Eagles,

1076
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 1: so you get to make your choice. I mean I

1077
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: like giving out layups. If people want to lay up,

1078
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:14,800
Speaker 1: take the Colts. It feels like the easiest bet on

1079
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 1: the board. This week. I'm gonna show some courage. I

1080
00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:24,480
Speaker 1: am gonna go with the New Orleans Saints. Wow. I

1081
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:27,759
Speaker 1: love it. As we discussed it, I loved it, loved it,

1082
00:56:28,040 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 1: loved it, loved it. You're taking the Colts plus one

1083
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 1: and a half against the Titans. I'm taking the Saints

1084
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: plus five against the Bucks. Let's road in Monds and

1085
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:41,760
Speaker 1: play some Scooch Roulette. That's what we're doing. On Thursday.

1086
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:45,279
Speaker 1: We will narrow down the slate even further, talk about

1087
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 1: the games that we liked that I just listed. We

1088
00:56:47,520 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 1: will give out our big balls better the week we

1089
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:51,359
Speaker 1: did not do that we gave out Simon says. We'll

1090
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:54,239
Speaker 1: talk about our money line round Robin Parlay. We will

1091
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 1: talk about survivor can't Wait. We'll talk about your lacrosse

1092
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:03,759
Speaker 1: career at West Virginia University for Simon Hunter. Hi m

1093
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 1: Chad Millman. This has been the favorite podcast from the

1094
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. Download it from Apple podcasts from Spotify,

1095
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts until Thursday. I Love you