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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us prow read enough. They're all for running a

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Speaker 2: game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Twid sixteen, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's

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Speaker 3: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous a mount.

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Speaker 2: Of the planet. Nobody kicks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 3: drilled bibused. How on earth did that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Monday's Michael Liba joining me is

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Speaker 1: always would be my co host, my friends and colleagues PJ.

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Speaker 1: Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and together the three of us

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Speaker 1: will handicap a pretty pivotal week upcoming in the soccer calendar.

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Speaker 1: We've got Arsenal and City and a huge title race

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Speaker 1: six pointer on Wednesday, four round of sixteen matches in

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Speaker 1: the Champions League. We'll touch a little on Europa League

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Speaker 1: including Barcelona and United, and then we'll get out of here.

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Speaker 1: We're recording this before the Super Bowl, which Anthony informs

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Speaker 1: me features the Eagles and the Chiefs. So that's fun.

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Speaker 1: But we've got our own super Bowl and that's on Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: and that's featuring Arsenal and City. The odds on Bet

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Speaker 1: three to you come to us via Bet three six five,

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Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Remember sign up with promo

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Speaker 1: code Action to get Bet three six fives exclusive offer

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game,

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Speaker 1: get two hundred free BJ. This is a huge game

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Speaker 1: for you. It is your team. Arsenal plus one ninety

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Speaker 1: at home, they're underdogs to man City coming off a

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Speaker 1: thrashing of aston Villa there plus one twenty five on

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Speaker 1: the road. Perhaps all is well at the ETI hadn't

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Speaker 1: after all the draws plus two sixty Arsenal coming off

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Speaker 1: a lost to Everdon. Then they drew with Brentford in

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Speaker 1: a game I don't even think they deserve.

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Speaker 2: To get a point out of Oh stop?

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Speaker 1: Whatever is the market kind of overlooking the gunners off

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Speaker 1: those two performances?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is just a classic cell high

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Speaker 4: spot on City in a bylow spot on Arsenal. I

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Speaker 4: really don't think that the Gunners should be underdogs because

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Speaker 4: first off, these are teams just played in the FA Cup.

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Speaker 4: What was that two weeks ago on a Friday Arsenal

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Speaker 4: rolled out you know, not entirely their B team, but

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Speaker 4: a lot of second choice players of all City. Remember

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Speaker 4: it was at the ETI had and Pet played a

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Speaker 4: pretty much a full strength squad and City did absolutely

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Speaker 4: nothing in the entire match.

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Speaker 2: They had just zero point three to two.

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Speaker 4: Expected goals and an expected threat of point six y's

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Speaker 4: eight two penalty box shots and oh both those came

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Speaker 4: after Thomas Party came off the pitch in favor of

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Speaker 4: the Congo, who's already now at lone at Crystal Palace.

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Speaker 4: So yes, Arsenal has not played well the last few matches.

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Speaker 4: They were out played by Everton and then for large

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Speaker 4: stretches was outplayed by Brentford, even though they got screwed

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Speaker 4: on the set piece goal that var just forgot to

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Speaker 4: draw the line where.

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Speaker 2: It should be.

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Speaker 4: So that was fun. But no, I mean Arsenal. This

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Speaker 4: is Arsenal at home. They've been unbelievable there this season

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Speaker 4: plus one point four expected gold differential for ninety minutes,

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Speaker 4: while City when they've played the Big Six away from home,

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Speaker 4: they haven't played too well. Like if you go back

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Speaker 4: and look, they played Liverpool when Liverpool was pretty far

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Speaker 4: down and at their lowest, Liverpool outplayed them or outpraded

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Speaker 4: them on expected goals two point one to one. Really,

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Speaker 4: the only time they've actually beaten the team on expected

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Speaker 4: goals was against Chelsea, who was at their low point

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Speaker 4: after the World Cup as well. They got out played

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Speaker 4: obviously by United and then they recently just got out

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Speaker 4: played by Spurs, So I'm not so sure that they

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Speaker 4: should be a favorite here. I get it, they just

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Speaker 4: beat asked and they created a bunch of expected goals,

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Speaker 4: but the game state kind of changes when you score

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Speaker 4: off a set piece goal in the third minute, So

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Speaker 4: I'd like to see how that match would play out

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Speaker 4: if Villa didn't concede inside the first three minutes. So

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Speaker 4: I will be playing Arsenal. I do have them projected

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Speaker 4: at plus one fifty and City at plus one seventy seven,

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Speaker 4: so I think the line should actually be flipped. I

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Speaker 4: don't really think Arsenal should be an underdog here, so

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Speaker 4: I'm wrong with my gunners. John Obett plus one oh five.

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Speaker 4: I really I don't think they should be a underdog.

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Speaker 4: I think City still has problems.

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Speaker 1: I kinda like to draw here for a couple of reasons. One,

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Speaker 1: two really good defenses, two teams that do a lot

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Speaker 1: of the same things well, and I just don't think

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Speaker 1: either team would be that upset with getting a point

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Speaker 1: out of this match. I think City, had City had

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Speaker 1: Arsenal not drop two points over the weekend, it would

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Speaker 1: be a different story. But now the calculus kind of

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Speaker 1: changes a little bit, and City can play more of

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Speaker 1: a big picture view of this game and say, all right, well,

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Speaker 1: let's just there are three or three points back. I

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Speaker 1: know Arsenal's got a game in hand, but if we

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Speaker 1: kind of just stay here and bet on ourselves to

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Speaker 1: have the better stretch run, that's not a terrible tactic,

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Speaker 1: let's say so. I think Anthony's bett kind of plays

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Speaker 1: into this a little bit, or at least where he's looking.

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Speaker 1: I think that this is going to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a a snoozer. That used to be the

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Speaker 1: cliche with these one of these two teams, not Arsenal City,

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Speaker 1: but when one versus two would play prior to the

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Speaker 1: classics between City and Arsenal, over the past few years

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Speaker 1: that we would say, ah, you know, these these games

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Speaker 1: often times end up being slugfests and kind of boring,

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Speaker 1: and both teams play pragmatically, and then it's stopped that

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Speaker 1: that trend kind of stopped for a couple of seasons,

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Speaker 1: and I think we're going to actually head back towards

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Speaker 1: that and see two teams. So I like to drop

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Speaker 1: plus two sixty. I don't hate an exact score of

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Speaker 1: like maybe nil mil. You'll get a good number because

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Speaker 1: people will expect us some goals. That's where I'm looking here.

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Speaker 1: I'll probably be on the drug.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. II lean toward the under at two and a half.

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Speaker 3: It's a little bit dicey, but you know, two and

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Speaker 3: three quarters if we get there. I really like the under.

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Speaker 3: This Arsenal attack has shown some signs of weakness in

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Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks, and I think that we're

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Speaker 3: going to continue to see that with Jesus being out.

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Speaker 3: I know Bjay mentioned last week that he thought in

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Speaker 3: Katya was better. I would strongly disagree, and I think

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Speaker 3: you're kind of seeing that a little bit. The thing

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Speaker 3: that concerns me is, like, we know what we're getting

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Speaker 3: from Arsenal like they've been playing pretty much the same

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Speaker 3: eleven for the last pretty much all season. You know,

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Speaker 3: sub one guy here or there, But we don't know

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Speaker 3: what we're going to get from the city from a

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Speaker 3: lineup perspective, Like he played a back three today with

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Speaker 3: a ton of attackers on the field, Rodri Gundigan double pivot,

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Speaker 3: Rico Lewis benched and then played you know, three in

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Speaker 3: front of them, three in front of Roder and Gundigan

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Speaker 3: and then Holland up top. I think we may see

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Speaker 3: the same, But then you're asking a lot of you

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Speaker 3: of your wide center backs to guard flanks, and you're

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Speaker 3: asking a lot of you know guys like you know,

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Speaker 3: Marees to track back and defend or Debryna if he

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Speaker 3: depending on where he ends up in that formation, Grealish

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Speaker 3: getting back defensively. Like there's a lot of question marks

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Speaker 3: about it. Pep can really get away with being that

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Speaker 3: aggressive on the road at Arsenal now if he wants

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Speaker 3: to go full tilt and try to outscore them. I

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Speaker 3: obviously don't like my under in that situation. So this

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Speaker 3: is going to be one of those games where I

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Speaker 3: kind of have to wait a little bit until we

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Speaker 3: get closer to game time and potentially even lineups. Let

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Speaker 3: the market settle, because I'm not quite sure where we'll

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Speaker 3: end up on this one. But in terms of just

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Speaker 3: like where I am on both of these teams, you know,

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Speaker 3: if you listen to this show every week, you know

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Speaker 3: that I'm still believe that Arsenal is not good enough

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Speaker 3: to be more than a goal better than their opponents

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Speaker 3: per ninety, which they've been in the first half. I

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Speaker 3: think regression comes there, but City's attack has been pretty

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Speaker 3: lackluster overall too. They had a good game today over

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Speaker 3: three expected goals over two and a half non penalty

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Speaker 3: good showing. Definitely was an an inspired performance, which you know,

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Speaker 3: I guess we could have expected after a couple of

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Speaker 3: you know, Pep kept challenging them and tinkering the lineup.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, I I struggle with this match.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna feel forced to bet at We've got

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Speaker 3: Champions League on the same time, it'll be a great

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Speaker 3: day for the Triple box. But uh yeah, I kind

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Speaker 3: of agree with Leebov's angle too, though, Like a draw

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Speaker 3: isn't a bad result for either.

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Speaker 4: Side, and let's not forget the last two matches Marsenaal.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna be a completely different approach, right because they've

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Speaker 4: played two teams that play very very deep, low blocks

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Speaker 4: and looked to counter them. You know, City's probably gonna

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Speaker 4: control the majority of the possession. And even if we

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Speaker 4: go back to last year, I know it wasn't you know,

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Speaker 4: things are obviously very different right now. But Arsenal really

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Speaker 4: did outplay City for a large stretch of that match

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Speaker 4: at the Emirates. They counted them really, really well, and

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Speaker 4: then Gabrielle got a dumb red card, they got a

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Speaker 4: phantom pen City got a phantom penalty, and then from

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Speaker 4: there the match got flipped on its head and Rodger

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Speaker 4: scored to win two one. But I think if you

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Speaker 4: see a similar game plan for Marsenal, who can sit deep,

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Speaker 4: who does defend well and transition in encounter City who Yeah, anthey,

185
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Speaker 4: I agree with you, it's gonna be a very interesting

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Speaker 4: approach this pepco like what he did against Tottenham, which

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Speaker 4: was a very defensive approach, very afraid of getting hurt

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Speaker 4: on the counter, or does he go very attacking. I

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Speaker 4: think he probably wasn't very afraid of aston Villa countering them,

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Speaker 4: So yeah, it will be interesting to see what he does.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, it's gonna be you know, I don't. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: Arsenal's in bad form, but it's just a completely different

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Speaker 4: style of play and a completely different opponent in City

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Speaker 4: where they're gonna you know, Arsenal's gonna have to play

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Speaker 4: more defensive, which they did a good job of in

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Speaker 4: the last meeting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and going back to that January meeting, like I

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Speaker 3: think that that game was headed way toward and under.

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Speaker 3: I mean it was gonna be a one nil Arsenal

200
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Speaker 3: work like until the penalty. So they did a really

201
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Speaker 3: good job of suppressing City shots, which is something Tottenham

202
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Speaker 3: just did, which is something that Arsenal did a good

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Speaker 3: job of in the FA Cup. So you know, if

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Speaker 3: if City's gonna have a lot of stale possession, I

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Speaker 3: think it's interesting that, you know, you look at the

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Speaker 3: under also. I mean at this point, like Brentford and

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Speaker 3: Everton did a really good job pressing, I thought, and

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Speaker 3: I don't know that City is at that level of

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Speaker 3: energy off the ball. They have not been the same

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Speaker 3: pressing team this year, so it'll be interesting. Of course

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Speaker 3: they're their dominant possession, but you know, with the impetus

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Speaker 3: being on the road favorite. This is an easy pass

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Speaker 3: for me. It's in terms of the side.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I don't know if City's on everdence level.

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Speaker 2: I agree.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to at least that day they weren't.

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Speaker 1: Let's move out to Champions League real quick. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: run through the odds, of course, for my friends at

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Speaker 1: bet three six five. City at the top as a favorite,

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Speaker 1: clear favorite plus one seventy five byrons plus six fifty

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Speaker 1: phg eight to one. Those two teams play each other

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Speaker 1: Liverpool Madrid Napoli all ten to one, Chelsea sixteen, Spurs eighteen,

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Speaker 1: Benfica twenty eight to one, Enter thirty three to one,

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Speaker 1: Milan fifty, Dortmund fifty Leipzig interesting long shot. They would

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Speaker 1: be what forty to one, fifty to one if they

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Speaker 1: weren't playing City. I think in round of sixteen they're

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Speaker 1: one hundred to one, Porto one hundred to one, Frankfurt

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Speaker 1: one hundred to one. I'm Bruges fifty to one. I

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Speaker 1: think Frankfurt interesting as well. Let's move on to uh

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Speaker 1: We'll start with Milan and Spurs. Anthony's Tottenham. This is

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Speaker 1: the inconsistent Bowl Milan's plus one fifty five at home

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Speaker 1: on the three way line, Spurs plus one eighty the

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Speaker 1: draw plus two thirty the two advanced line. Milan a

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Speaker 1: slight underdog plus one twenty five Spurs minus one seventy five.

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Speaker 1: This is a classic Champions League matchup when you can

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Speaker 1: say neither one of these teams deserves. The fact that

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Speaker 1: one of these teams is going into the round or

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Speaker 1: the quarterfinals is a little bit of a shame because

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Speaker 1: of the way that they've played. But yet, you know,

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Speaker 1: you get in the hat.

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Speaker 2: That's all.

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Speaker 1: That's all you can ask for out.

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Speaker 2: Of your teams.

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Speaker 1: I kind of like Spurs here. I think that there's

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Speaker 1: kind of some fun narrative angles with Conte going back

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Speaker 1: to Italy here playing a style that should suit them,

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Speaker 1: with the kind of impetus being on Milan at home

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Speaker 1: to get ahead, I think that should play into their hands.

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Speaker 1: But it's so hard to trust either one of these teams.

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Speaker 1: Milan one two and three in their last six. That's

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Speaker 1: wind draw lost, Spurs, three wins, one draw for losses,

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Speaker 1: a win against City, losses to Arsenal City Leicester include

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Speaker 1: that Leicester game this weekend. It's just hilarious because it

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Speaker 1: looked like Spurs maybe we're about to start building something,

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Speaker 1: and the market would be like all right, like maybe

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Speaker 1: we can trust Spurs in the spot, but now look out,

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Speaker 1: Anthony anything here.

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Speaker 3: I would have loved Tottenham if I was smart, if

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Speaker 3: I were smart enough to bet it two weeks ago

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Speaker 3: when they were damn near plus a half. I would

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Speaker 3: love Tottenham plus a half in the spot. But as

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Speaker 3: a road slight underdog from a side perspective, no interest

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Speaker 3: in this match. It's funny, I tweeted on Saturday, like,

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Speaker 3: oh or Friday, you know, it's hard to see this

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Speaker 3: Milan team beating Spurs. And then Spurs went in and

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Speaker 3: put in a way worse performance than Milan did. But

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of question marks for both teams here.

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Speaker 3: First of all, Milan looks like they're getting some positive

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Speaker 3: injury news here. Tomory looks like he may be back.

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Speaker 3: Dennisair will be back. That's huge. I mean that's their

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Speaker 3: best defender and their best midfielder, their best ball stopper

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Speaker 3: in the midfield. Their defense is like falling off a

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Speaker 3: cliff in the last month, it's been terrible. Uh and

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Speaker 3: that's a huge red flag but like does Benissier, who's

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Speaker 3: their best deep line playmaker and their best ball winner,

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Speaker 3: improve their defense with to moryback two. They're also getting

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Speaker 3: bad goalkeeper play. Mec Manion's been out. The backup has

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Speaker 3: been really really bad at shot stopping and coming off

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Speaker 3: of his line and just making bad decisions. And now

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Speaker 3: Tottenham has a goalie problem. They have a midfield problem.

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Speaker 3: Benton Curves out for the season. They have a goalie

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Speaker 3: problem because Larise is out and I'm no Fraser Foster

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Speaker 3: fan at this point, and I don't think they're getting

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Speaker 3: They're not gonna get much out of him in terms

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Speaker 3: of plus shot stopping. So I mean, we know what

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Speaker 3: the Tottenham plan is. Uh, They're gonna sit deep and

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Speaker 3: they're gonna look the transition counter. And I think that

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Speaker 3: they are as a defense well shooted to do that

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Speaker 3: because they have, you know, defenders who are good without

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Speaker 3: the ball and good in defense and defending the penalty area.

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Speaker 3: Milan's not going to get transition, which is where they're

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Speaker 3: generally pretty good too, So I think this plays out

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Speaker 3: as a bit of a stalemate. I don't hate a draw,

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Speaker 3: don't hate an under same thing, But yeah, I mean

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Speaker 3: there's just so many question marks about these teams defensively

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Speaker 3: right now with the goalies.

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Speaker 2: I'll be j real quick.

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Speaker 1: I know you don't have much interest from a betting perspective.

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Speaker 1: This is the.

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Speaker 2: Easiest pass on the board.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's so much inconsistency with both these teams that, Yeah,

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Speaker 4: this is just there's so many better matches in the

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Speaker 4: Champions League.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just passing on this altogether.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps it's this one. PSG at home plus one sixty

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Speaker 1: two to Bayron Road favorite plus one forty five very

307
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Speaker 1: slight Road favorite, the draws plus two eighty Byron's minds

308
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Speaker 1: two hundred to advance PSG plus one fifty kind of

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Speaker 1: have talked a little bit in our league owned section

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Speaker 1: about PSG's injury issues and Bope, mess it looks like

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00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,960
Speaker 1: Neymar should be all right for this one. I don't

312
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Speaker 1: mind backing Byron here. This is just it feels like

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Speaker 1: a classic PSG Champions League spot where they just their

314
00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 1: journey just kind of ends, like you can almost always

315
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Speaker 1: see it coming with this team in this competition, and

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Speaker 1: it feels like this it just doesn't bode well. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's Byron here or nothing, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: I think most people will will be backing it to

319
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,760
Speaker 1: be a little more back and forth, considering that two

320
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:14,360
Speaker 1: attacks that we're looking at just unnamed value.

321
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Speaker 3: You're going the other way, Yeah, I'll be looking to

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Speaker 3: play PSG in the return leg for sure. I think

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Speaker 3: that they definitely present matchup advantages in this situation against

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Speaker 3: this Byron team. Like Byron as much as Nogosman tinkers

325
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Speaker 3: and like changes the plan and they do a lot

326
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Speaker 3: of different things. Like if you look on paper at

327
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Speaker 3: this team and you were to say, like where's Byron week,

328
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Speaker 3: and it would be that they can see quality shots.

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Speaker 3: I mean they just like are bottom five in the

330
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Speaker 3: Bundesliga and average shot xg per shot aloud, and they

331
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Speaker 3: tend to get broken open. And when you're playing in

332
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Speaker 3: bap Nymar and MESSI, that's like the worst possible nightmare

333
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:52,400
Speaker 3: scenario combination. And they're especially going to be favored in

334
00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,480
Speaker 3: the second leg depending on how the first leg plays out,

335
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Speaker 3: Like they're minus more than minus a half in the

336
00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,960
Speaker 3: in the second leg, Like that's just gonna be PSG time.

337
00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 3: I love that spot. But like in terms of we'll

338
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,680
Speaker 3: talk about that in a month. But like this matchup,

339
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 3: I mean it looks like Messi's out and BAP's out,

340
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 3: and like that's pretty much most of the PSD attack.

341
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:12,800
Speaker 3: I mean, they wanted to add depth in the transfer window,

342
00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:18,080
Speaker 3: they couldn't akatek and and Neymark can like be okay,

343
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,560
Speaker 3: but like there's just not all that much talent on

344
00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 3: this team. If you look at the eleven that they

345
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,760
Speaker 3: started at Monaco on Sunday, like or Saturday, it was

346
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 3: just not a team that is going to go toe

347
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 3: to toe with Byron in the Champions League. Now, I

348
00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 3: do think if we know anything about Gaultierras that he

349
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:35,120
Speaker 3: can he can set them up defensively and make them

350
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 3: a defend team and and kind of get at this

351
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 3: you know, pretty overvalued Byron attack. Still like at the

352
00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:43,640
Speaker 3: other end of the pitch, Byron is still not getting

353
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Speaker 3: the same quality of shots that they were getting when

354
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Speaker 3: they had Lewandowski, even though Mucila is amazing and like

355
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 3: you know, Gannabry is amazing. Like they have great attackers,

356
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 3: but they don't get the same vocal, central located shots.

357
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Speaker 3: And so I think when they play at elite other

358
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,920
Speaker 3: elite teams, you're going to see their defense, their attack struggle,

359
00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:01,440
Speaker 3: and you've kind of seen it. I mean when they

360
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,320
Speaker 3: played Dortmund they scored two goals, but they didn't take

361
00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 3: a shot until the fortieth minute. They finished with under

362
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,240
Speaker 3: one and a half expected goals. They played Leipzig, they

363
00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:13,159
Speaker 3: scored once on less than one expected goal. Like, if

364
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,560
Speaker 3: you're gonna play against the elite, elite, I think you

365
00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:20,720
Speaker 3: can see some flaws in this Bayern attack. So I

366
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,359
Speaker 3: like the under three point twenty five. I bet that

367
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,160
Speaker 3: three and a half if you found me in the app.

368
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 3: We bet that before the messy news, so it was

369
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,679
Speaker 3: even better afterwards. This is just classic, like, oh, it's

370
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,760
Speaker 3: gonna be back and forth. It's two great attacks, but

371
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,480
Speaker 3: it's the first lag and especially with PSG not having

372
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Speaker 3: their guns now, like they're gonna sit and they're gonna

373
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Speaker 3: try to keep this within a goal. If they get

374
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Speaker 3: within a goal, then they're alive to go to go

375
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Speaker 3: to Byron in a month and win it with the

376
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Speaker 3: talent they have.

377
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I uh, I find this very interesting because do

378
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,159
Speaker 4: you guys want to take a quick guess how many

379
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,359
Speaker 4: time with Byron's lost this season in all competitions, Just

380
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 4: just quick guess four less once.

381
00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,000
Speaker 3: I think they've only lost once, right, yeah.

382
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 2: Augsburg, but that all one.

383
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, But if you go back to the champions like

384
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 4: I understand it was a long time ago, I'll understand Saudiomani.

385
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 2: Was healthy for that a portion.

386
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,600
Speaker 4: But they won every single match and the second leg

387
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 4: against Barcelona was very, very impressive.

388
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 2: It's a match I think we all think. I think

389
00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:16,120
Speaker 2: pretty much all of us were.

390
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 4: On Barcelona at that point, but Byron went in there,

391
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,119
Speaker 4: they created two expected goals, they beat them three to nothing,

392
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:28,119
Speaker 4: they created five big scoring chances against Now is one

393
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 4: of the best teams in the world. And I understand

394
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 4: they've drawn three times in the Bundesliga, but they've won

395
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 4: the expected goals battle in every single match outside of

396
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,879
Speaker 4: the Wolfsburg match, out of the World Cup break, and

397
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 4: if you go through PSG in the past in these

398
00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 4: type of champions like situations, I agree with you. Ay

399
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,720
Speaker 4: Galtier went with a three to five to two against

400
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 4: Monaco on Saturday, so he can very easily drop that

401
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:49,360
Speaker 4: into a five to three to two.

402
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 2: Play very very defensive.

403
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 4: And there's some interesting with the injury news on Messi

404
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 4: and and Boppe. They're trying to say, like there's some

405
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,640
Speaker 4: positive news they might be fully fit. I'm not really

406
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:04,159
Speaker 4: sure even if they aren't. Like we've seen it time

407
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 4: and time again from PSG. If those three on the

408
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 4: field together, they do very little to no defensive work.

409
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 4: So now you're trying to defend one of the best

410
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 4: attacking sides with a ton of great attacking wingers. I

411
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 4: understanding they don't out and out striker, but trying to

412
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 4: defend all of those wingers with seven eight outfield players

413
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 4: is a very, very difficult thing to ask, especially for

414
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 4: someone like Verazzi who's not entirely healthy right now. So

415
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 4: I have major major question marks about how PSG is

416
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 4: going to actually defend Bayern Munich.

417
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 2: It is the first leg.

418
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,679
Speaker 4: They'll probably play more defensive, but yeah, if Messi and

419
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 4: and Pope are out, then that's just troublesome. I don't

420
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 4: know how they're gonna I mean, obviously they have nam

421
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 4: Aar e gud Take has been decent in spots this season,

422
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,199
Speaker 4: but I mean, they played three teenagers against Monaca. Are

423
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 4: they're going to have to do that in this first

424
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,199
Speaker 4: leg against Bayron Munich. I'm that is just troublesome. So

425
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 4: I like Bayron on the money line. Uh, if you

426
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 4: follow in the app, you know that I bet it

427
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 4: right when the bop end news came out that he

428
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 4: was gonna be out.

429
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 2: So it's dropped quite a bit, but I do think

430
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 2: there's still some value environmenticure in this first leg on

431
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 2: the money line.

432
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 1: An interesting strategy here too would be like if PSG

433
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 1: loses too one or one nail, then maybe backing them

434
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: with the future to win win the entire tournament, right like,

435
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: because you know, like the way that this draw sets up,

436
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 1: you're already going to be without that that would require

437
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 1: them to eliminate Byron, So that's one of the favorites out.

438
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 1: And then yeah, Madrid and Liverpool they're they're playing each other. Uh,

439
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: and then you have teams like Benfica playing Bruise, so

440
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 1: you're getting a soft team coming through to the quarterfinals. Uh.

441
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 1: You could even Chelsea even Chelsea Dorton, Chelsea Doorman, right,

442
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:50,160
Speaker 1: so like that the yeah, yeah, so it's very very

443
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: open if you can get If you can get through Byron,

444
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 1: I think the numbers too short at eight to one

445
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 1: is what I'm trying to say. But if they do

446
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 1: fall behind, or if they even to win this leg,

447
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 1: then you can consider it because if they do get through,

448
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 1: if they come back and win and there they'll be

449
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 1: healthier for the second leg. The competition should really soften up.

450
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 2: Uh.

451
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 1: And that's kind of what the what I was saying

452
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 1: off the top with Leipzig, Right, it requires them a

453
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 1: one hundred to one to to beat City already, so

454
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: they've already done kind of the hardest part. And then

455
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 1: you're talking about City's gone when a Byron PSG has gone,

456
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: one of Liverpool and Madrid is gone. Uh, it's it's

457
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 1: gonna be wide open if one of these if there

458
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 1: is a little bit of chaos, uh in in the quarterfinals.

459
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 3: So you've got a napolete ticket, right, I do have

460
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 3: an It's just that is live and I think they're

461
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 3: overrated to now at like their serious prices.

462
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 2: You know, Frankfurt will come back from the grave.

463
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 3: And in a Champions League like this where like every

464
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 3: dominant team has a all the big boys have flaws.

465
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's why the league is more interesting than Champions League.

466
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 1: We'll get there in a little bit.

467
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:01,679
Speaker 3: Roman has already won it.

468
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Wednesday Dortmund Chelsea dortmun plus one fifty

469
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 1: at home Chelsea plus one e seven on the road

470
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 1: of the draws plus two thirty the two advanced Chelsea

471
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: minus won sixty three Dortmann plus one twenty. These odds,

472
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 1: of course for bet three six five last eight matches

473
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 1: for Chelsea two wins, four draws, two losses, eleven total

474
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 1: goals six four five against. Those six goals have come

475
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: on twelve and a half expected goals seven point six

476
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 1: allow expecta goles allowed, so a little little bit of

477
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 1: an overperformance on defense as well. But they didn't look

478
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 1: great against west Ham. I think west Ham is We've

479
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 1: talked about a very stout defense, So not not the

480
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: worst result in the world to get out of there

481
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 1: with the draw. Should Dortmund? Meanwhile, five on the spin,

482
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:51,959
Speaker 1: five wins on the spin since the World Cup, fifteen

483
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: goals scored five against ten point two expected goals created

484
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 1: in those five matches five and a half against this

485
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 1: this to win this lie, to win the tie over

486
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 1: two legs is going to require Chelsea to score because

487
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 1: Dortman is going to score. They've kind of shown us that, right.

488
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 1: Can you leg minus one sixty three on Chelsea to

489
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: advance here? I know, I think we all think that

490
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:16,199
Speaker 1: they're kind of due for some regression positively offensively. I

491
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: think Graham Potter will eventually figure it out. They kind

492
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 1: of look like Brighton Potters Brighton teams from eighteen twenty

493
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 1: four months ago when they were creating and just couldn't finish.

494
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: I don't hate a look at Chelsea on the three

495
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,199
Speaker 1: way line in the first leg to pull the upset,

496
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: but boy, I don't trust them over were two legs

497
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: to score enough to justify those odds. Anything for you, BJ, Yeah.

498
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 4: I don't hate to look at the over two and

499
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 4: a half goals in this match. So here's what's interesting

500
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 4: is that, so I am projecting two point nine two

501
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 4: goals for this one. But like you already mentioned, Chelsea

502
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 4: do for so much positive regression going forward. But the

503
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 4: Dortmand attack has been fantastic all season in the Bundesliga

504
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 4: and is only going to improve.

505
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 2: As we go along for the season.

506
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 4: So they're third in the Bundesliga non penaltic spect goals,

507
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 4: They've the second big second most big scoring chances, second

508
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 4: most box entries, and all of that is for a

509
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 4: majority of the season with Anthony modest as their main

510
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 4: out and out striker, which we've mentioned I don't know

511
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 4: five thousand times on this podcast. But now they have

512
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 4: Sebastian hall air A Demi is getting more involved in

513
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 4: the attack. So now a Chelsea team that I understand

514
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 4: Enzo Fernandez is good, but he doesn't make an entire team,

515
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 4: and you think he saw against west Ham that Chelsea

516
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 4: is still very, very vulnerable and transition defensively and especially

517
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 4: on set pieces as well. So I do think this

518
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:32,479
Speaker 4: is going to be a little bit of a back

519
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 4: and forth type match. And Dortmund has been pretty average

520
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 4: defensively in the Bundesliga as well, So with the Chelsea

521
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 4: attack having some positive regression going forward with it, with

522
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 4: the dormant attack already being great and already gonna be

523
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 4: even better going forward in this Like I mean, even

524
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 4: if you go through Dortmann's results and you look at

525
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 4: when they've played some of the best competition, they created

526
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 4: one point six against Byron, they had a great offensive

527
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 4: performance against Manchester City in both legs, So I think.

528
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: This is a back and forth type match.

529
00:24:58,160 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 4: I do like over two and a half goals, which

530
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 4: you can find minus one oh five out there, so

531
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 4: I think we're gonna see some that positive aggression for

532
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 4: Chelsea and then the Dortman attack can definitely threaten this

533
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 4: Chelsea defense and transition.

534
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 1: Anthony anything for you real quick?

535
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a contrasting styles and it's gonna

536
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 3: be really interesting matchup. I mean, all four of these

537
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 3: matches this week I have projected pretty close to a

538
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 3: coin flip, So I am very much excited for this.

539
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 3: Like is not and I said this when the draw

540
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 3: came out, like it is not the best betting slate

541
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 3: in the world where I'm like chopping at the bit

542
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 3: to get down on like this team hammer Spot against

543
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 3: this team that I think is super overvalued or undervalued ever.

544
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: But this is an interesting tactical matchup because Chelsea wants

545
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 3: to play slow and Potter wants gain control. And you

546
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 3: know you talked about Brighton, Like what happened after Brighton

547
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 3: couldn't finish all their chances for a little while they

548
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 3: got good, But we also don't know what Chelsea is.

549
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I thought they played fine against west Ham,

550
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 3: and I aggregate they didn't really create much in the

551
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 3: second half, which is kind of concerning. They should have

552
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 3: had a penalty, but like should have had a penalty

553
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: in stoppage time on a bad chance doesn't mean like

554
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 3: oh should have won because you didn't really deserve it,

555
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 3: even though the call was obviously a handball. So it's

556
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 3: kind of tricky to say. But I think we don't

557
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 3: know what Chelsea is because they don't even know, Like

558
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 3: they're changing all these players in and like it could click,

559
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 3: could it clicked this week? I don't know. I'm kind

560
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 3: of skeptical, like this is the This is the easiest

561
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 3: passing on the board for me, because I don't really

562
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 3: know what we're getting from Chelsea. Dorman is finally getting

563
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 3: healthy too, but they're still kind of bad in transition.

564
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: I mean, their transition numbers are really poor this year.

565
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 3: They're bad defending set pieces, which is always a red

566
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 3: flag in these knockout tournaments. So like you can make

567
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: a case against for both teams. I don't really have

568
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 3: a strong opinion here. I will be interested in amount

569
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 3: a month when we get some more data on what

570
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 3: Chelsea looks like and what Dorman looks like with these

571
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:50,479
Speaker 3: teams being fully fit again and having new players, what

572
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 3: it will look like. Then these are the two teams

573
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 3: where like of the eight playing in this Round of

574
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 3: the sixteen. Playing in this round, I think in terms

575
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 3: of like, who is a team nobody's talking about that

576
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 3: could make a run, Probably these two and then and

577
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: then enter for me, like those are the three where

578
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 3: I'm like, oh, if things were to break, like this

579
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 3: team could be really dangerous in a year where there

580
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 3: is no dominant, dominant team at the top.

581
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:17,959
Speaker 1: Finally, on Wednesday, Club Bruges They're here, They're ready to party.

582
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: Plus three twenty at home hosting Benfica. Odds on on

583
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: the three way line minus one eighteen. The draw is

584
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 1: plus two seventy five to advance. Bruges plus three thirty

585
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 1: three Benfica minus five hundred. This is kind of what

586
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: I was talking about, how Leipsig with their draw taking

587
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: on City. It's that's why they're one hundred to one

588
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 1: and Benfica twenty eight to one, because they are playing

589
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: the worst team in the Round of sixteen in their matchup.

590
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna bet Bruges on the three way line

591
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: and maybe bet them to advance. But it comes down

592
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: to a lot of times, I think, because Benfica was

593
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 1: really impressive in that group stage and they've been good

594
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: in the Portuguese League. We know that they're better than Bruges,

595
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: but we're still talking about a team from the Portuguese league.

596
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: There's a team from the Belgian league. It's in Belgium.

597
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 1: I think there's enough pointing to Bruges at this number,

598
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 1: and I don't want to get too wrapped up in

599
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: what we saw at a Benfica in in the group stage.

600
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: Like I said, it was good, but the group stage

601
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 1: was so weird all over the place, so I'm not

602
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 1: I'm not too thrilled laying juice with Benfica. But Bja,

603
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:25,360
Speaker 1: you've been trying to.

604
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 2: Been trying to tell people, you've been trying to.

605
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: Squash the bruge a long time.

606
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, but long time.

607
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 4: They keep by the way, you guys. Do you guys

608
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 4: know who's managing.

609
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: Bruises right now?

610
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 4: Scottie Parker Harker is managing Bruies right now after getting

611
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:42,719
Speaker 4: fired from Bournemouth after Ergen klop assassinated him.

612
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 2: I don't see it at all.

613
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 4: I don't see with his Bruises team, even if you

614
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 4: look at the results coming out of the World Cup.

615
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 4: I understand the overperforming Champions League. I yelled that until

616
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 4: I was blue in the face, and it finally came

617
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 4: to fruition against enough bellow Portuguese side Porta, who pounded

618
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 4: them for nothing on the road. They've won one match

619
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 4: since since the World Cup break, one match in the

620
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 4: Belgian Pro League. They have a plus point three to

621
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 4: five expect to gold differential in the thirteenth most difficult

622
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 4: league in Europe. While Benefica, I understand they just lost

623
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 4: Enzo Fernandez and Anthony's gonna tell you he's their best

624
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 4: ball progressor and they're gonna lose that without him in

625
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 4: the middle of the pitch. But they're still at around

626
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 4: a plus two expect a goal differential per ninety minutes

627
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,239
Speaker 4: in the sixth most difficult league in Europe, and all

628
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 4: by the way they took care of business against lesser

629
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 4: competition in the Champions League in the group stage.

630
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 2: I do not see it.

631
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 4: I mean, even if you look at this Benefica attack,

632
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 4: they've only gotten better since the transfer window. They brought

633
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 4: in Guiatest from Wolves on loan. They still have Neris,

634
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 4: they have Gonzalos. Ramos scored a hat trick in the

635
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 4: World Cup. This team is unbelievable. This team is awesome.

636
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 4: They've been close to one and a half goals better

637
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 4: in a better league than Bruges, but yet they're only

638
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 4: minus one ten on the money line. What no, give

639
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 4: me Benefica minus one ten.

640
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 2: This is an all.

641
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: Great, great spot for Benefica, who's also been in great

642
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 4: form since Endo Fernandez has left. So they still have

643
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 4: gile Mario, who was a very capable central midfielder. So

644
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 4: let's not sit here and act like just because they

645
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 4: lost Enzo Fernandez, who has only been there for half

646
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 4: a season, that this team that has loads and loads

647
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 4: of talent is going to suddenly fall off in the midfield.

648
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 4: I don't see it at all. Oh, by the way,

649
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 4: and Andre Scott Olson and Judekua Judequa if that's how

650
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 4: you pronounce it, I apologize, are both questionable to play

651
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 4: in this match. Scott Olson their best midfielder and Judequo

652
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 4: was basically one of their best forward in this Champions

653
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 4: League run. So Benefica minus one ten. I do not

654
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 4: see it with this bruised team. They stink and they've

655
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 4: showed that all season long. But somehow Anthony's going to

656
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 4: buy into them.

657
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:42,479
Speaker 3: That's a Barsha legend.

658
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 2: Fair, Yeah, that's true.

659
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: You know, Look, I think we can look at like

660
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 3: the sample of games in the Champions League, and we

661
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 3: can say, like, oh, they're not actually a good team,

662
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 3: but like, let's consider what wins generally in these Champions

663
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 3: League situations. He's knockout tournaments. We've seen it before. You

664
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 3: don't need to have dominant underlying numbers in one match.

665
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 3: You need to have a system that is effective, a

666
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: good transitionability midfielders. They have a really young team. They

667
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 3: press effectively, like Bruges is the kind of underdog that

668
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 3: I want to get behind. And I understand that their

669
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: annoine numbers in Belgium have been bad, but it becomes

670
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: different in a Champions League vironment. Let's go back to

671
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 3: what they actually did in the Champions League, because yes,

672
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 3: they absolutely rode Menula, who was god mode in the

673
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 3: group stage, Like you can't deny that. But like, okay,

674
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 3: they played Porto twice. They didn't just play them once.

675
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 3: They played them twice. The first meeting, they waxed them

676
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: like there was some defensive areas, but stop again, but

677
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: two and a half over two and a half expected goals.

678
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 3: They sat deep, let them have the ball transition effectively. Yeah,

679
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 3: there was some defensive mistakes in there. But again four

680
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 3: no win on the road in Porto BJA only counts

681
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 3: the four no win uh that Porto got. They got three.

682
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 3: They in Bruges they played and their good home field.

683
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: They played Leverkusen twice, Levicusen mid table, you know German

684
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 3: team who's underperformed this season but hasn't been like they still.

685
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 3: You know, you could make the case that they're a

686
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: decent team. I won't later, but played Levercusin twice, held

687
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 3: them under one expected goal in both meetings, like this

688
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 3: is not a team who's just like a total SIV.

689
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 3: The only game where they got truly pounded was at

690
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 3: Lette in the second match, when yes they were very

691
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 3: very fortunate Minielee was standing on his head, but they

692
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 3: were eleven guys behind the ball defending for the point

693
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 3: because all they needed to advance was a point, and

694
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 3: the game never got out of a game state where

695
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 3: they had to do anything more or even attack, because

696
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: they had just beaten at Letti by the way at

697
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 3: home two weeks before. Now at Letti was minus one

698
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 3: fifteen at Bruges in the Champions League. And you know

699
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 3: BJ made the same case and he said, brush is

700
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: still bad. We've been saying Bruges is terrible all the time.

701
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 3: Maybe they'll be terrible on Wednesday, but catching a half

702
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: goal at home, I am very intrigued by this. This

703
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 3: midfield Noah Long one of one of the up and

704
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 3: coming guys you're gonna hear about in the future. I

705
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 3: would like it if Yuklo would play, say eight goals

706
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 3: and forrests. This year has been good, but we don't

707
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 3: know yet on that. But yeah, I will be on

708
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 3: Bruges plus a half. I'll go ahead to head with

709
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 3: bj We'll go, we'll go to battle. This kind of

710
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 3: reminds me the IAX situation from last year, where like

711
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 3: IX trucked everybody in the group stage. We're like, yes,

712
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 3: IXIX acts, but the market got a little inflated on them,

713
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: and I think that's a little bit of the case here. Like, yes,

714
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 3: Benfica is better than Club Bruises, but are they good

715
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 3: enough to be laying, you know, minus one fifteen on

716
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 3: the road at Bruges in the first leg of a

717
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,479
Speaker 3: matchup they don't need to win, I don't think so.

718
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me Bruges plus a half. We'll disagree.

719
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna fly in the face of of Benfica, who

720
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 3: look like impressive, very good, but yes, losing Endzo I

721
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 3: think does matter in this kind of matchup, especially when

722
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 3: you're playing a team wh wants to run in transition

723
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 3: and has the pieces to do it. Buchan and especially

724
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 3: like they have really fun transition attacking pieces, and that's

725
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 3: how they ripped apart ed LETTI ripped apart Porto with

726
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 3: some you know a little bit like pressing traps, spring spring,

727
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 3: a mistake, big chance, big chants. They're not gonna take

728
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 3: twenty shots. If they get eight and they score, I

729
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 3: think they're in good shape.

730
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: All right, let's quickly talk about the Europa League. There

731
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: is a clear headliner. Barcelona minus won forty three at

732
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,919
Speaker 1: home hosting Manchester United plus three twenty the draws plus

733
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: three twenty BARSA minus one seventy five against two advance

734
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 1: against United plus one twenty five.

735
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 2: The Red Devils are.

736
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: I think what the market is telling us here is

737
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: something pretty interesting, which is United is they're rolling right

738
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: like this team is. It's unrealistic to expect them to

739
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: win the Premier League, but they're in the kind of

740
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 1: title race like when you're gonna see the graphic on

741
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: Peacock and NBC Sports ars there's gonna be Arsenal in

742
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 1: city and they're gonna show United they're close enough to

743
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: be on the fringe, and they've been rolling since October

744
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: and yet Barcelona's minus won seventy five to advance past them.

745
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 1: That tells you a couple of things. Perhaps United isn't

746
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: as good as they're giving credit for by the masses,

747
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: and the second thing is or maybe Barcelona's just that

748
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 1: good is both Barcelona? Are they one of the best

749
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 1: teams in the world right now? Looks like it. I

750
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: really don't have anything here at BJ I'll flip it

751
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 1: to you. I feel like you've been looking at your

752
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 1: chops for the spot for a while.

753
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, definitely, I'm taking Barcelona minus one forty Barcelona,

754
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,280
Speaker 4: I mean before the city and I'll put on three

755
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 4: point what nine expected goals against Aston Villa today. Barcelona

756
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 4: had taken over the top spot in Euro's top five

757
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 4: leagues and expected gold to financial per ninety minutes. And

758
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 4: they are absolutely rolling right now. They're unbeaten out of

759
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 4: the World Cup break. They've won seven to the last

760
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 4: nine matches.

761
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: And listen, this is another.

762
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 4: Situation where very similar to I kind of see this

763
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 4: as you know how United played against both City and

764
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 4: against Arsenal. Where United it's gonna sit deep, they're gonna

765
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 4: play a low block. But the same the trap that

766
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 4: Shavi's not gonna fall into, which is the pet the

767
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 4: trap that Pep fell into, was that United did such

768
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 4: a good job at closing off the middle of the

769
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 4: pitch because their low block is very effective and it

770
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 4: is very good. What Barcelona's been doing is they've been

771
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 4: built holding out in a four to four shape, so

772
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 4: essentially they are creating a lot more whip with Rafina

773
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:11,360
Speaker 4: Pedrie Gavi and creating more space for Lewandowski in the middle.

774
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 4: So I think they're gonna be able to attack United

775
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 4: in wide areas because whereas United weakest at their fullbacks

776
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 4: who don't defend as well as other places on the pitch. Obviously,

777
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 4: Casamira will be back for this match, which is very

778
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 4: very big, especially given the last two matches against the Leeds.

779
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 4: Obviously they did not deserve to beat Leeds today on Sunday,

780
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 4: not at all. I mean, leads upgrade than one point

781
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 4: eight two point nine, and I think this is just

782
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 4: a really really good Barcelona spot and guess what. The

783
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 4: matches are starting to stack up for Manchester United. Now

784
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 4: we're going on three weeks where they've been playing two

785
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 4: to three matches per week now and now you have

786
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 4: to go on the road to Barcelona in the midweek

787
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 4: after coming off back to back matches against Leeds.

788
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't see it. I have Barcelona projected

789
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 2: at minus two seventeen.

790
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 4: I truly believe that this Barcelona team right now, the

791
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 4: way they're playing, are the best team in the world.

792
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 2: And I think it's going to be very, very.

793
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 4: Difficult for United if they couldn't really keep Arsenal out. Obviously,

794
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 4: Casimiro wasn't there for that match, and even the match

795
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 4: against City City tilted the field on them.

796
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 2: I get it.

797
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 4: They didn't create a lot of expected goals and they

798
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 4: didn't play a lot through the middle, but if they

799
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 4: played the ball, you saw it. Anytime that City wanted

800
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 4: to play the ball out wide, there were just acres

801
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 4: and acres of space, and if you want to give

802
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 4: Rafina and other guys that had much space, good luck.

803
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 2: So I like Barcelona minus one forty.

804
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 1: Anthony got I think here.

805
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna play Barsa, but in a different way.

806
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 3: I'm going to play too advance. If you shop around

807
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 3: you could find minus one forty forty five out there.

808
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: I like that a lot. Now here's the thing. This

809
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 3: is not like the Champions League were they're gonna have

810
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 3: a month in between matches. This is this Thursday and

811
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: next Thursday. So they're going to Manchester next week. You

812
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 3: mentioned the match pile up. It is a problem. Ted

813
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:54,399
Speaker 3: Hawk is not rotated really at all. He played some

814
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 3: really interesting lineup decisions, you know, second leg against nodding

815
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 3: him at home, like playing his best players. Fac didn't

816
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 3: really rotate. Then had the midweek match. Consecutive matches against

817
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 3: Leeds which are very physical, very high tempo matches. United

818
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 3: did not play that well in this match at all.

819
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 3: I thought, you know, for eighty minutes Leads was clearly

820
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 3: the better team. They took ten penalty box shots to three.

821
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 3: I think it was in the end not a competitive match,

822
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 3: but they did have the finishing and then they you know,

823
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 3: the subs changed the game. You know, Lissandra coming in

824
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 3: does make United a lot better. But they will play

825
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 3: the second leg next Thursday in Manchester, three days before

826
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 3: a cup final, so you know it is expected that

827
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 3: United will have one eye on that. Now. I don't

828
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 3: know what ten Hog will do. He may not rotate

829
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 3: at all. It may depend on how the first leg goes.

830
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 3: But I think it's interesting for United, who's in a

831
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 3: solid position in the top four and has a chance

832
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 3: at the trophy on Sunday first under ten Hog, to

833
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 3: then go all out in the second leg. Here Now,

834
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 3: we'll talk about this match again next week, like the

835
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 3: return fixture. I don't really trust Barcelona still like to.

836
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 3: I think they're a little bit over in in this matchup,

837
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 3: but I do like them next week at United. So

838
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna take the minus one forty forty five

839
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: on to advance.

840
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, and let's not forget like United has been playing

841
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 4: much better at Old Trafford than they have away from home,

842
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 4: Like not even counting today, they were still in a

843
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 4: negative expected gold the French away from home Barsa. They're

844
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 4: at plus one point eight expected gold of French all

845
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 4: at Camp New and La Liga this season. So and like,

846
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 4: I get it if you go back to the Champions

847
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 4: League that they got pounded by Bayern Munich like at home,

848
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 4: but Manchester United it's not Bayern Munich. So yeah, this

849
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 4: is a great, great Barcelona spot who will be without

850
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 4: boost guts. But again, since Barcelona basically bought what ten

851
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 4: eleven guys in the summer transfer window, they.

852
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,959
Speaker 2: Have plenty of death to get through this type of match.

853
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 2: Pile up.

854
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's real quick thirty seconds each another Europa

855
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 1: League bet? You want to throw out their BJ Yeah,

856
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 1: let's go.

857
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,479
Speaker 4: Rama dron O bet minus one twenty on the road

858
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 4: against Salsburg.

859
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:57,720
Speaker 2: We've all now, if you're.

860
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 4: Just on this podcast, you haven't heard of say it.

861
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 4: We have all bet Rama three to one to win

862
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,799
Speaker 4: the Europa League. That is a wonder goal grouper. So

863
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 4: if you haven't bet it, bet it right now. But

864
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 4: I don't think there's any reason that Roma should be

865
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 4: a pick him in this match. So we've already talked about.

866
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 2: How great Jose Mourinho's team is.

867
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 4: There at a plus one point zero six expected gold

868
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 4: differential per ninety minutes, just out created Leche one point

869
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 4: seven to point three over the weekend, but you're then

870
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 4: one to one. What makes them so good is teams

871
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 4: just cannot get in their penalty area. Like Jose is

872
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 4: not providing much resistance, but their final third entry to

873
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:30,280
Speaker 4: box entry conversion rate allowed is only around nineteen percent,

874
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 4: which is on par with basically the best in all

875
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 4: of Europe. And they're only allowing point seven to two

876
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 4: non penaltygue expected goals per match. And it's been a

877
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,439
Speaker 4: while since we've obviously talked Champions League or Europa League,

878
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 4: but Brummel was awesome in the Europa League. Like they

879
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 4: had a plus eight point five expected goal differential in

880
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 4: the group stage. They were very unlucky to finish the

881
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: second behind.

882
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,919
Speaker 2: Real Bettis and Salzburg. Listen.

883
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 4: They had good performances against a cy Milan and Chilly

884
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 4: in the Champions League, but the Austrian Bundesliga just returned

885
00:40:56,840 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 4: on the February eleventh, so they've only played one match

886
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 4: now and now they got to go host Roma, who's

887
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 4: been one of the best teams in Syria. Ah And honestly,

888
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 4: Salzburg hasn't been that dominant in the Austrian Bundesliga as

889
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:13,760
Speaker 4: they have been in years past. They're at a plus

890
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 4: zero point eighty three expected gol differential per ninety minutes,

891
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 4: when the past two years they've been above plus one

892
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,919
Speaker 4: point one. So I think this is a great spot

893
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 4: here for Romo, who I've projected at minus one seventeens,

894
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:25,760
Speaker 4: so give me them Jowno bet at minus one twenty.

895
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, that came in just under thirty seconds, Anthony, we're

896
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 1: waiting a half.

897
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 3: Here, Monico plus a half at Leverkusen. These two teams

898
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 3: are pretty much even for me, and Leverkusen has pretty

899
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: middling numbers in the Bundesliga, like they've been an average

900
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 3: German team this year. Monica, meanwhile, has really turned up

901
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:45,919
Speaker 3: the juice in the last couple of weeks, a couple

902
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 3: of months even and has just a much better inform attack.

903
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 3: Flourya and Verts coming back for Leverkusen will make them better.

904
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 3: But I still think this is close to a coin flip.

905
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 3: So I take the plus a half on Monico first.

906
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 1: Leg, and as we just said, get those Roma Europa

907
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 1: League bets in. And also I would advise you to

908
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 1: pick a long shot in the Champions League as well, whether.

909
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 2: It's our other group.

910
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 1: For me, yeah, Teripig one of those.

911
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna bet Enter before before they play Portal.

912
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:17,439
Speaker 3: I like their matchup with Porto two.

913
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 1: I do buy them, and with that leave you alone

914
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: to enjoy this upcoming week Champions League and of course

915
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 1: City and Arsenal a title six pointer. Will see you

916
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 1: again Thursday morning for a regular scheduled Premier League preview

917
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 1: for Anthony Dubundo for b J Cuneham Michael Leebuff. Thanks

918
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 1: again to our sponsors PET three six five, Best of

919
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 1: luck with all your bets this week.

920
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

921
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

922
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler