Speaker 1: Hey everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan
Speaker 1: Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris Adi. It's time to break down some of our
Speaker 1: favorite and our least favorite bets for the Week five
Speaker 1: NFL Slate, and with me to talk about it all
Speaker 1: is Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs dot com,
Speaker 1: writer and podcaster for four for four dot com, one
Speaker 1: of the most accurate sports betters in the Bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: Com Accuracy Challenge, and most notably the man who narrowly
Speaker 1: lost to me in the semi finals of the Scott
Speaker 1: Fishbowl last season. You can find him on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Greg Sauce. It is about time we got to talk, Greg.
Speaker 1: How the heck are YEA?
Speaker 2: I'm doing all right? Man. That's some sick rubbins you
Speaker 2: just got on the I mean fishball beating. It gave me.
Speaker 2: But I was I was in it, man, I was
Speaker 2: in there for for a long time. I'm proud I
Speaker 2: made it as far as I did, but man, you
Speaker 2: came so close to winning it all.
Speaker 1: I really appreciate that I did. I definitely do not
Speaker 1: lose sleep over the fact that had I just started
Speaker 1: to see Anderson, I would have been the champion for
Speaker 1: the scott Fish Bowl eight. I'm definitely not bitter about
Speaker 1: it at all. But we had a lot of fun
Speaker 1: doing that, and you know, I know you're in it
Speaker 1: again this year. Hopefully things will turn out just a
Speaker 1: smidge better for both of us. So look, for a
Speaker 1: while there, I checked it out. You were, I believe,
Speaker 1: leading the accuracy competition in our Betting pros dot com chowns.
Speaker 1: Was that right or you were one or two right before?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I came out real hot in the first three weeks.
Speaker 2: I was definitely number one in percentage of correct picks,
Speaker 2: and I was just a little bit behind after week
Speaker 2: three in terms of units one I I was just
Speaker 2: barely behind somebody else. And forgive me for forgetting that
Speaker 2: person's name. I would say, look it up on bettingpros
Speaker 2: dot com. But yeah, I had a really good run
Speaker 2: for the first three weeks, and then week four, the
Speaker 2: great equalizer came crashing back down to earth. That's just
Speaker 2: kind of how it goes sometimes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you and me and a lot of betters out there.
Speaker 1: Week four was a real tough one and full disclosure,
Speaker 1: because we had been on a pretty good run here
Speaker 1: on this podcast, I certainly got a few wrong last week.
Speaker 1: I was wrong on both the Pats laying seven to
Speaker 1: the Bills, which by the way, was perhaps the most
Speaker 1: annoying game I've ever seen because the Pats had about
Speaker 1: fifty chances to cover but just couldn't get those extra
Speaker 1: two points. I was also wrong in the Cardinals getting
Speaker 1: six from the Seahawks, as well as my Marlon Mack
Speaker 1: prop bet. Now I did hit on the Panthers Texans
Speaker 1: coming in under forty seven and a half, so not
Speaker 1: a complete wipeout, and our guest jj Epersina had a
Speaker 1: pretty nice weekend, actually nailing three of his four bets.
Speaker 1: So let's both go for the clean sweeper. Are you
Speaker 1: good with that? Greg?
Speaker 2: Sounds good to me. Let's do it all right.
Speaker 1: As always, We're gonna get started here with pick six,
Speaker 1: where both Greg and I are going to give three
Speaker 1: of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the
Speaker 1: spread or on the over under. And as always, I
Speaker 1: will note at the outset that we're recording this shortly
Speaker 1: before the Thursday night game between the Rams and the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: so we will not be making any picks on that game,
Speaker 1: But if you want to see how I or Greg
Speaker 1: picked that game, you can go to Bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: That's gonna show you how I and every betting expert
Speaker 1: who makes picks on the site made their picks for
Speaker 1: every game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are
Speaker 1: the aggrig at odds that you'll find available in the market.
Speaker 1: All right, Greg, start us off. What's your first pick here?
Speaker 2: So I'm taking Baltimore minus three at Pittsburgh. The Steelers
Speaker 2: are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football,
Speaker 2: and they have an average point differential of minus three
Speaker 2: point zero through four weeks. And meanwhile, Baltimore has an
Speaker 2: average point differential of plus eight point eight points. So
Speaker 2: even if home field is worth three points, that should
Speaker 2: still put the Ravens as bigger favorites. In my mind,
Speaker 2: I expected a larger spread here. It actually started at
Speaker 2: three point five. It's been bet down to three. I
Speaker 2: liked it at three and a half. I like it
Speaker 2: even more at three. So I'm really into this line,
Speaker 2: this pick. If you want to go deeper on kind
Speaker 2: of the efficiency metrics for these two teams. I like
Speaker 2: to use DVA from football outsiders, and it's all more
Speaker 2: good news for Baltimore. The Ravens ranked fifth in total DVA,
Speaker 2: the Steelers ranked twenty fourth. The Ravens have the third
Speaker 2: best offense, sixth in passing efficiency, and first in rushing efficiency.
Speaker 2: The Steelers ranked nineteenth in defense, nineteenth against the past,
Speaker 2: twentieth against the run, and in the running game, there
Speaker 2: is a huge mismatch in the trenches. Pittsburgh D line
Speaker 2: ranks twenty eighth in adjusted line yards. Baltimore's O line
Speaker 2: ranks second. So either the Steelers are going to get
Speaker 2: run over by mark Ingram and Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 2: or the Steelers are going to have to sell out
Speaker 2: against the run and risk getting burned by Marcus Brown
Speaker 2: and the rest of the receivers in that receiving core
Speaker 2: for Baltimore. And on that note, I know we're going
Speaker 2: to get to player props later, but I like taking
Speaker 2: Marquise Brown to top one hundred receiving yards at plus
Speaker 2: two thirty five on points bet. I'm not going to
Speaker 2: make that my official player prop for this podcast. I'll
Speaker 2: save that one for later, because I do think there
Speaker 2: is some risk that the running game goes hand for
Speaker 2: Baltimore and they just might not need to pass that
Speaker 2: much either way, I just don't trust Mason Rudolph to
Speaker 2: keep up on the other side of the ball. So
Speaker 2: I love the Ravens minus three.
Speaker 1: Well, first of all, I appreciate you not completely ruining
Speaker 1: the way I like to structure this show by giving
Speaker 1: away your top prop. But that is nice that you
Speaker 1: added on a bonus. There a couple things here. I
Speaker 1: first of all, I agree with you. When I look
Speaker 1: at the line generally, it just it screams to me Baltimore.
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised because I'm looking at our consensus breakdown.
Speaker 1: Fifty seven percent of experts are going here with Pittsburgh. Now,
Speaker 1: some of them got in probably when it was closer
Speaker 1: to four, because the consensus has moved a bit. But
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised by that. The one thing
Speaker 1: that makes me a little hesitant about this, and I'm
Speaker 1: wondering whether or not this factor's into at all. Team.
Speaker 1: I know they have, you know, new offenses. I know
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger's not there, and Lamar Jackson's obviously new, and so
Speaker 1: everything's a little different. Every time these teams play, it's
Speaker 1: basically a close game. Half their games, you know, over
Speaker 1: the last several seasons, basically are decided by three points exactly.
Speaker 1: So does that type of history factor in it all
Speaker 1: or do you just throw it out because it's an
Speaker 1: entirely new sort of set of circumstances here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, new teams, and most importantly, it's a new quarterback
Speaker 2: for Pittsburgh. Like all those other games are played with
Speaker 2: Ben Roethlisberger, this one's played with Mason Rudolph. That's a
Speaker 2: huge deal. Like that's a major downgrade, especially if you've
Speaker 2: been watching mesro Rudolph over the past few weeks. He's
Speaker 2: looked serviceable. He's a game manager type so far, but
Speaker 2: has he looked good no way. Has he been able
Speaker 2: to push the ball down the field, not at all.
Speaker 2: I don't trust him in this matchup whatsoever against a
Speaker 2: good coach, a good team in Baltimore, and I just
Speaker 2: think they're gonna get run off the fie. Now, if the
Speaker 2: line was four or five points, I'd be a little
Speaker 2: bit more hesitant. But if all Baltimore has to do
Speaker 2: is win, by field goal. I think that's very easily doable.
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised that the line is here.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll be honest. Again, that gives me a
Speaker 1: little bit of pause, just because again it's a divisional game.
Speaker 1: They're always a little bit scary, and the fact that
Speaker 1: the teams know each other well, even though the offenses
Speaker 1: are different in different quarterbacks. Of course, really, for me,
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh didn't look that good. I know, they ran all
Speaker 1: over since Cincinnati. I mean, first of all, any Andy
Speaker 1: Dalton led team in primetime is basically a guarantee to collapse.
Speaker 1: But you know, the Bengals really aren't good, and it
Speaker 1: was very gimmicky to me, right, I mean, it was
Speaker 1: a lot of wildcat a lot of short passes. I
Speaker 1: just do not see them being able to replicate that
Speaker 1: again against Baltimore. So I don't think I've made my
Speaker 1: official pick on the site yet. I certainly lean that way.
Speaker 1: It gave me a little bit of pause because of
Speaker 1: the fact that the teams know each other so well.
Speaker 1: They're almost always within three points. They're certainly almost legitimately
Speaker 1: every time basically within one score. But certainly, if I
Speaker 1: lean one way, I'm inclined to agree with you there.
Speaker 1: I agree on Baltimore laying three my first bet. Now,
Speaker 1: if you listen to the Monday show where we give
Speaker 1: our initial reactions to the lines, then you'll probably know
Speaker 1: that I'm going to be taking the Vikings laying five
Speaker 1: to the Giants. Now, there are a couple of things here.
Speaker 1: The bettingpros dot Com expert consensus rankers are pretty much
Speaker 1: split down the middle of this game. They slightly lean
Speaker 1: towards Minnesota. It's fifty four percent to fifty six percent.
Speaker 2: Well, we've also got.
Speaker 1: A thing where we show you how the most accurate rankers,
Speaker 1: the top twenty percent, and that's both Greg and me,
Speaker 1: we're both in there. That's seventy seven percent are taking
Speaker 1: the Giants, which makes me a little scared. So bear
Speaker 1: that in mind when I say that this is my
Speaker 1: favorite spread on the slate. Now, I'm having trouble personally
Speaker 1: seeing a scenario where this is not a get right
Speaker 1: game for Minnesota. They are coming off this horrible, embarrassing
Speaker 1: loss to the Bears, and now they have losses to
Speaker 1: both the Bears and the Packers. They certainly cannot afford
Speaker 1: to lose a game like this. They've obviously struggled with
Speaker 1: their passing game. You've got Adam Theln calling out the
Speaker 1: entire game plan. By the way, you should play Adam
Speaker 1: Feelin and all your dear lineups this week, to be clear.
Speaker 1: But you've got Stefan Diggs basically begging the team to
Speaker 1: trade him. You've got Kirk Cousins apologizing for his terrible play,
Speaker 1: but putting that aside, Cousins is not a terrible quarterback.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's had several terrible matchups, but we know
Speaker 1: that he's competent. And although the Vikings offensive line is
Speaker 1: not great, the Giants have absolutely no pass rush. They're
Speaker 1: twenty fifth in the league against the pass, and they
Speaker 1: really struggle against play action. Genorrah Jenkins is fine, but
Speaker 1: you can't draw conclusions from the way they played against
Speaker 1: the Redskins. Now the Vikings, in addition to I think
Speaker 1: finally here opening up the passing game, they of course
Speaker 1: still have the dominant running game with Dalvin Cook and
Speaker 1: the Giants, who don't have a great run defense anyway,
Speaker 1: just lost Ryan Connelly, one of their linebackers, to a
Speaker 1: torn acl baby Alec Oltletree comes back, but I don't
Speaker 1: think he'd play a full complement of stats anyway. So
Speaker 1: this strikes me as a game in which the Vikings
Speaker 1: offense is gonna look really strong and basically establish themselves.
Speaker 1: And on the other side, I think Daniel Jones probably
Speaker 1: looked better than his end line against the Redskins, but
Speaker 1: he obviously came back to Earth. There's still know Saquon Barkley.
Speaker 1: I don't care about all this nonsense about how they're
Speaker 1: not ruling him out yet if they play him there insane.
Speaker 1: Wayne Goalman is serviceable, but he's not gonna win the
Speaker 1: game for them. I get Golden Tate is coming back
Speaker 1: and that helps, but he's been away from the team
Speaker 1: for about a month, and the Vikings defense is excellent.
Speaker 1: They're seventh in the league in points in yordage allowed
Speaker 1: ever since. Griffin is playing great, Hunter is playing great,
Speaker 1: and Mike Zimmer knows Pat Shermer from his time with
Speaker 1: the Vikings. So I have this awful feeling as I
Speaker 1: look and I see how the most accurate experts are
Speaker 1: going on, and because I love this bet so much,
Speaker 1: I have this awful feeling that there's gonna be a
Speaker 1: ton of like sharp action that comes in late on
Speaker 1: Sunday or something like that, because the bets overall here,
Speaker 1: the money and the number of bets generally are favoring
Speaker 1: the Vikings. But I really don't care. To me, I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Vikings laying five, and I feel pretty good
Speaker 1: about it. I don't know how you feel.
Speaker 2: Now, I'm with you on that. I love the point
Speaker 2: you brought up about how they're not giving up that
Speaker 2: many points. Their point differential is five point three points
Speaker 2: per game. New York is at negative two and a
Speaker 2: half points, so right there you can kind of see
Speaker 2: where that's spread comes from, right to some extent, sure,
Speaker 2: especially factoring in three points for home field. And that's
Speaker 2: my biggest concern here is that you're taking the Vikings
Speaker 2: on the road. But hopefully that means that they are
Speaker 2: going to have to pass a little bit more. They're
Speaker 2: not just going to be able to lean on that
Speaker 2: running game like they normally would. And along those lines,
Speaker 2: I think this is one of those squeaky wheel gets
Speaker 2: the grease sorts of scenarios with Adam Deelan and Stefan Diggs.
Speaker 2: Like I do think they are going to make an
Speaker 2: effort to pass a little bit more and this is
Speaker 2: the perfect match to do it. Like you said, the
Speaker 2: Giants have been pretty bad against the pass, and I
Speaker 2: think this is a get right game for the Vikings.
Speaker 2: I really like this call.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly how I feel. And I get the
Speaker 1: road thing. Of course they're in New York. But I mean, look,
Speaker 1: I realize they've played so much better at home than
Speaker 1: on the road. But on the road they've placed that
Speaker 1: They've faced the Packers and the Bears. I mean that
Speaker 1: those are two very very strong defenses, you know, especially
Speaker 1: the Packers against the pass, So you know I'm going
Speaker 1: to give them a little bit of a pass for that.
Speaker 1: I just think this is I mean, as much as
Speaker 1: they seem like they might be in disarray, they just
Speaker 1: strike me as a much much better team. And as
Speaker 1: much as I like Daniel Jones and like what I've
Speaker 1: seen from him, I'm not really buying that he's sort
Speaker 1: of going to be this guy who's going to transform
Speaker 1: this team. I think the Vikings win here, and I
Speaker 1: think they win big, So I'll take that. Who's your
Speaker 1: second pick?
Speaker 2: So I'm taking the Titans minus two and a half
Speaker 2: against Buffalo. The Titans are at home average point differential
Speaker 2: for Tennessee is seven point three points and it's three
Speaker 2: point three points for Buffalo. So it should come as
Speaker 2: no surprise that after the line opened at Titans minus
Speaker 2: two and a half, it got bet up to Titans
Speaker 2: minus three. Either way, like, I still like the Titans
Speaker 2: at minus three. If Josh Allen doesn't clear concussion protocol,
Speaker 2: the Bills are going to start Matt Barkley in this game.
Speaker 2: But even if all and play still have a tough
Speaker 2: time against Santassee's defense, they're super balanced against the run.
Speaker 2: They rank thirteenth in DVA and fifth in adjusted lineyards
Speaker 2: against the pass. The Titans ranked twelfth and DVA and
Speaker 2: eighth then adjusted sack rate. Buffalo's defense ranks better in
Speaker 2: overall DVOA, ranking fourth in the NFL, but that's mostly
Speaker 2: due to how excellent their pass defense has been. Their
Speaker 2: rank third, and pass defense dv away the Bills do.
Speaker 2: But the Bills have been much worse against the run,
Speaker 2: where they're ranked twenty fifth in the DVA. So I
Speaker 2: think you got to look for Derek Henry and Dean
Speaker 2: Lewis to do some damage in this contest. All in all,
Speaker 2: I just think these two teams are really close, but
Speaker 2: the Titans are slightly better, and they're playing at home,
Speaker 2: and Buffalo's quarterback is questionable. So give me Tennessee at
Speaker 2: minus two and a half or minus three.
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity. How would you feel about the fact
Speaker 1: if Allan is ruled out and Barkley plays, Because again,
Speaker 1: we know Matt Barkley from his career. He did look,
Speaker 1: you know, decent when he filled in there against the
Speaker 1: Pats and Allen as sort of. He's able to make
Speaker 1: plays with his legs. He's incredibly inaccurate. I mean he
Speaker 1: throws more than an interception per game. Does it significantly
Speaker 1: like strengthen your bet if you find out Parkley? Because
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say I agree with you. I like
Speaker 1: Tennessee here laying three points. It doesn't really matter to me.
Speaker 1: But I don't feel like it would make a huge
Speaker 1: difference to me necessarily if it were Matt Barkley versus
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. I don't know if you agree with that.
Speaker 2: No, I don't think it would either. I mean, it
Speaker 2: makes some difference, but ultimately these are two sketchy quarterbacks,
Speaker 2: and I would rather than be facing Barkley just because
Speaker 2: he hasn't had all the preseason and practice in real
Speaker 2: game reps for the first few weeks of the season.
Speaker 2: Think that matters, and in general, Tennessee just has a
Speaker 2: way of looking all offenses look really bad, Like look
Speaker 2: what they did to Matt Ryan and the Falcons last
Speaker 2: year or last week. That was one of the few
Speaker 2: games I got right in Week four. So maybe I'm,
Speaker 2: you know, chasing the points here a little bit with
Speaker 2: the Titans because Buffalo's defense is good. Like That's what
Speaker 2: gives me some pause here, is that maybe they just
Speaker 2: keep it close through their defense. It doesn't matter how
Speaker 2: bad their quarterback play is, because it's not like, you know,
Speaker 2: Marcus Mariota is a world beater either. My main concern
Speaker 2: here is whether or not the Mariota will kind of
Speaker 2: shoot himself in the foot in this game against a
Speaker 2: real defense, because last week he wasn't playing that in
Speaker 2: the Falcons. But I like the Titans defense, I like
Speaker 2: their running game, and I think that those two aspects
Speaker 2: of their team line up really well against Buffalo this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, certainly. If there is a weakness to
Speaker 1: the Buffalo defense, and again it is really strong, I
Speaker 1: completely undersold it last week when the Pats were going
Speaker 1: in there, and I you know, the way they performed
Speaker 1: was really, really, you know, surprising to me, although probably
Speaker 1: shouldn't have been. But in the end, if you are
Speaker 1: going to attack them, it is probably on the ground.
Speaker 1: And again, just to make it clear, the betters, at
Speaker 1: least on bettingpros dot com, the consensus are with you
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent taking Tennessee here, and of the most
Speaker 1: accurate the top twenty percent, eighty three percent are taking
Speaker 1: the Titans. So that is the way that I am
Speaker 1: leaning as well. So I like that pick. I think
Speaker 1: it's good. I don't have any concerns even if Josh
Speaker 1: Allen plays. So my next pick is that I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go a little over under here, and I'm going to
Speaker 1: go the Broncos and Chargers over forty four and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: I think this might be the first over that I've
Speaker 1: picked on this show. Greg, So you are basically here
Speaker 1: for history. Well, all right, let's do it every time.
Speaker 1: Every time you come in the show, I will pick
Speaker 1: an over. That's my promise to you if you come back.
Speaker 1: Both offenses here have been surprisingly competent, and surprisingly that's
Speaker 1: really for the Broncos. Okay, the Chargers, they sort of
Speaker 1: are what they are, other than on the road against
Speaker 1: the Lions, have been better defensively, frankly than I think
Speaker 1: people myself included expected. They've been able to put up points.
Speaker 1: They're third in the league in passing yards per game,
Speaker 1: fifth and totally yards per game. They'll get Melvin Gordon
Speaker 1: back here. Mike Williams looks like he'll be good to go.
Speaker 1: I know it was limited and pres this today, but
Speaker 1: he does look like he's trending in the right direction.
Speaker 1: There's little reason to think that they'll struggle to move
Speaker 1: the ball against Denver. Everyone knows that the Broncos didn't
Speaker 1: have a sack until last week against the Jaguars. Now
Speaker 1: Bradley Chubb is out for the season. It's skewed a
Speaker 1: bit by the fact that Fournette, you know, had that
Speaker 1: huge game last week. But Denver is thirtieth against the
Speaker 1: run and Chris Harris, Mayshadow, Keenan Allen. That's certainly something
Speaker 1: to consider, But I just don't see anything from the
Speaker 1: Broncos to suggest that their defense is going to be
Speaker 1: able to hold the Chargers in check here. Now, the
Speaker 1: Broncos on the other side of the ball have a
Speaker 1: kind of surprisingly competent offense. I mean, Joe Flacco has
Speaker 1: actually fitting kind of well with the system. He's on
Speaker 1: pace for forty three hundred and four passing yards, just
Speaker 1: a shy off his career best. And remember they've played
Speaker 1: the Bears and the Packers, two very strong defenses. Again,
Speaker 1: as I said earlier, the Packers, particularly against the pass.
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Sanders has made a miraculous recovery from last year's injury.
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton is very underrated. They have two solid running
Speaker 1: backs in Lindsay and Freeman, and the Chargers, as usual,
Speaker 1: are dealing with a ton of injuries on both sides
Speaker 1: of the ball, especially on defense. They're about middle of
Speaker 1: the road in defense despite playing a lot of struggling offenses.
Speaker 1: It looks like Melvin Ingram might miss this game, further
Speaker 1: weakening that defense. So I expect both teams here to
Speaker 1: be able to top twenty points. So I admit I'm
Speaker 1: slightly nervous at taking an over when it involves the Broncos,
Speaker 1: But here I think that both teams are going to
Speaker 1: be able to move the ball on the opposing defenses,
Speaker 1: So I'm fine with laying some money on over forty
Speaker 1: four and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, soe. My biggest concern with this over is the
Speaker 2: risk of just getting games scripted out of it, because
Speaker 2: we've seen how easily teams have been able to run
Speaker 2: on the Broncos, and if the Chargers have been paying attention,
Speaker 2: they would maybe try to lean into that trend and
Speaker 2: just pound Melvin Gordon, pound Austin Eckler into the ground
Speaker 2: here and just slow the game down, you know, win
Speaker 2: small and not drive the score up. That would be
Speaker 2: my primary concern here. Do you have any worries about
Speaker 2: that sort of outcome?
Speaker 1: Sure, but I mean, look at what the Jaguars did
Speaker 1: last week with Leonard Fournette and that game, I think
Speaker 1: total fifty when it was end. I mean, I agree
Speaker 1: that I certainly think that they could do it. But
Speaker 1: I think the difference is I think I think that
Speaker 1: the Broncos are able to score, you know, and I
Speaker 1: think that they're desperate. Not that that really matters because
Speaker 1: they're not a great team. Although they easily could have
Speaker 1: three wins at this point, they they've let a few
Speaker 1: games get away. So even if the Chargers lean on
Speaker 1: the run here heavily and again I don't expect Melvin
Speaker 1: Gordon to just come out here and get twenty five
Speaker 1: carries or anything like that. I'm right, I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: in the end, that's what it is. And Eckler, you know,
Speaker 1: is great, but he's not a guy who you can
Speaker 1: pound into the ground right there. He's much more out
Speaker 1: of the passing game. I think that, you know, they'll
Speaker 1: take their shots enough, but what it really comes down
Speaker 1: to is, even if they lean on the run, I
Speaker 1: expect the Broncos to be able to put up points here.
Speaker 1: So I don't see this as a Chargers are up
Speaker 1: seventeen to nothing and they're just gonna run and slow
Speaker 1: the ball that I think that they the Broncos are
Speaker 1: going to be able to put up points here. So
Speaker 1: I'm okay forty four and a half. I admit completely.
Speaker 1: I have minor concerns here, especially because the Broncos, and
Speaker 1: I don't like, you know, the Broncos basically are going
Speaker 1: to have to put up twenty points to be able
Speaker 1: to make this work. But I think they can and
Speaker 1: I think, you know, again, they've also played some tough defenses.
Speaker 1: They've played the Packers, they played the Bear, so the
Speaker 1: fact that Joe Flacco is performing as he is and
Speaker 1: the offense is gelling as much as it is, I
Speaker 1: think is sort of a testament to the fact that
Speaker 1: they probably actually have a pretty decent offense, and I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to move the ball here.
Speaker 2: Yeah. The thing I like about this bet is that
Speaker 2: it kind of plays against public perception, which is a
Speaker 2: big part I think of sports betting is you kind
Speaker 2: of have to fade the public for the most part,
Speaker 2: and people are going to look at the Broncos versus
Speaker 2: the Chargers and they're going to think back to not
Speaker 2: just last week and the week before that, but even
Speaker 2: last season, and there's this residual effect of these teams
Speaker 2: are good defensive teams, and oh, I want to take
Speaker 2: the under on this over under. But I like the
Speaker 2: case that you've laid out, Like you look at the
Speaker 2: offense for Denver, they've been surprisingly good, they ranked twelfth
Speaker 2: and DVA, and the passing defense for the Chargers has
Speaker 2: been surprisingly bad, the thirtieth in DVA. So I see
Speaker 2: the blueprint for what you're going for. Like I said,
Speaker 2: my main concern is that considering how banged up the
Speaker 2: Chargers receivers are and the fact that they've just got
Speaker 2: Melvin Gordon back makes me think that they might just
Speaker 2: try to slow the game down, run fewer plays, and
Speaker 2: just just go with a run heavy approach. But yeah,
Speaker 2: if the Broncos can score, am.
Speaker 1: I not mat Yeah, And it's a good point you
Speaker 1: bring up when you're fading the public, because that's a
Speaker 1: winning strategy in the long term, and here it kind
Speaker 1: of plays right into that. I'm looking at the splits.
Speaker 1: It's roughly fifty to fifty slightly more on the under
Speaker 1: here on the number of bets, but the total money
Speaker 1: bet is about three to one in favor of the over.
Speaker 1: So I think that that shows you that most likely
Speaker 1: the sharper betters are going with the over, and they're
Speaker 1: going against the public, and that's usually a winning scenario.
Speaker 1: So for that reason, I feel pretty good there about
Speaker 1: going with over forty four and a half. Let's get
Speaker 1: to your third one here, what do you got for me?
Speaker 2: Okay, this team has burned me continuously through the season,
Speaker 2: but I'm taking the Cardinals plus three at Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: These teams rank thirtieth and thirty first in total dvaway
Speaker 2: and if you look at the Dave Numbers, the Dave
Speaker 2: Numbers at Football Outsiders, which wait their presets and projections,
Speaker 2: they rank twenty ninth and thirty first, and we're splitting
Speaker 2: hairs when it comes to teams that are that close.
Speaker 2: But in both cases, Arizona ranked higher than Cincinnati. So
Speaker 2: while we have to take a grit assault for the
Speaker 2: slim margins between these two teams, the Cardinals are a
Speaker 2: better team analytically. They also have a better point differential
Speaker 2: than the Bengals by about three points, So how come
Speaker 2: the Cards are three point underdogs. Ultimately, this matchup just
Speaker 2: appears to be a true test of that home field
Speaker 2: advantage being worth three point scenario right. But as close
Speaker 2: as this these two teams are in overall efficiency, there
Speaker 2: are certain angles where I feel like Arizona has a
Speaker 2: distinct advantage. Specifically with their rushing offense. The Cardinals ranked
Speaker 2: fifth and rushing offense DVA, while the Bengals ranked twenty
Speaker 2: second in rushing defense dvaway and as bad as the
Speaker 2: Arizona O line has been in pass protection, where they're
Speaker 2: twenty eighth in adjusted sacrate, they've been really solid in
Speaker 2: the running game with an adjusted lineyards mark ranking eleventh
Speaker 2: best in the NFL. And for comparison, you look at
Speaker 2: the other side of the line matchup there, the Bengals
Speaker 2: D line ranks twenty second in adjusted lineyards. So you
Speaker 2: add it all up, and the Cardinals should be able
Speaker 2: to run the ball. And that's probably the biggest concern
Speaker 2: I have with someone who might try to tuck themselves
Speaker 2: into the over on this game of forty seven points
Speaker 2: based upon the project pace of these two teams. Like like,
Speaker 2: don't get me wrong, I think the over is probably
Speaker 2: still a better bet than the under based on those
Speaker 2: projected pay stats, But I don't know. We haven't seen
Speaker 2: these teams play with a big lead yet, and so
Speaker 2: if Arizona gets up big or if Cincinnati gets up big,
Speaker 2: does that that pace that we're expecting come crashing down.
Speaker 2: But in general, Arizona is by far the fastest team.
Speaker 2: Cincinnati ranks tenth in seconds per play, And when the
Speaker 2: score differential is plus or minus six points, you know
Speaker 2: that is a one possession game. So I'm not going
Speaker 2: to pick the over with high confidence. There's just too
Speaker 2: much risk of a run heavy approach from Arizona kind
Speaker 2: of sucking the life out of the ball like we
Speaker 2: just talked about with the Chargers, especially now that the
Speaker 2: Bengals are missing John Brown to injury. So while I
Speaker 2: do like the over in this matchup, I'm much more
Speaker 2: inclined just to tap the underdog who probably shouldn't be
Speaker 2: an underdog. So I'm gonna take the points. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: take Arizona. I think that they should be able to
Speaker 2: cover this, if not win it out right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the consensus is with the sixty three percent favorite
Speaker 1: Arizona and seventy three percent of the top twenty percent
Speaker 1: most accurate experts also favorite Arizona. I think we can
Speaker 1: put this one. I think, honestly, with all of your
Speaker 1: picks every they all fall into the same bucket for
Speaker 1: how I feel about them, which is when I make
Speaker 1: my picks on the site, I'm going to go with
Speaker 1: them because that is the way I lean. I don't
Speaker 1: feel quite as strong about it, just because I feel
Speaker 1: like I've been backing Arizona, you know, especially last week
Speaker 1: against the Seahawks and they look terrible. I actually think,
Speaker 1: you know, you brought up the injury to John Ross,
Speaker 1: and I think that actually is a big deal. If
Speaker 1: just because it strikes me as Zach Taylor's system kind
Speaker 1: of needs someone to really stretch the field there to
Speaker 1: open things up, right. I mean, even though Ross doesn't
Speaker 1: get that many targets and he's really just kind of
Speaker 1: a big play guy, or he had been so far,
Speaker 1: you know, you don't have aj Green yet. So without
Speaker 1: that field stretcher right there, I actually think that that's
Speaker 1: going to have a pretty big impact on the way
Speaker 1: the Bengals are able to run their offense. And again,
Speaker 1: they're coming off the short week. They looked absolutely terrible.
Speaker 1: Their offensive line is dreadful, and again it's too bad defensive.
Speaker 1: So I agree with you know, probably lean towards the overall.
Speaker 1: I know that's not your pick anyway, but I do
Speaker 1: think that Cincinnati might have a little more trouble. You know,
Speaker 1: I know they couldn't move the ball at all last
Speaker 1: week against the Steelers, but I think they might have
Speaker 1: sort of surprising trouble putting up points here against an
Speaker 1: admittedly bad defense. So I certainly lean towards Arizona with you.
Speaker 1: I'm not going crazy over it just because man, Arizona,
Speaker 1: it's they're just not a great football team, especially right
Speaker 1: now with Peterson still out, and you know their injuries
Speaker 1: to their cornerbacks and their offensive line as well. But
Speaker 1: if they lean on the run here a little more,
Speaker 1: which is what you think they're going to wind up doing,
Speaker 1: I certainly think that that leans towards Arizona getting three points.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on here. My last one is
Speaker 1: I am taking another over under here, but I'm going
Speaker 1: back to my favorite, which is under, and I'm going
Speaker 1: to take the Cowboys and the Packers to come in
Speaker 1: under forty six and a half. Now, my reasoning here
Speaker 1: is not rocket science. Just take a giant step back.
Speaker 1: Think about the game from like an average football fans
Speaker 1: point of view. If you are the Packers defense, you
Speaker 1: probably want to do what you can to keep Dak
Speaker 1: Prescott on the sideline as much as possible. And if
Speaker 1: you're the Cowboys, you want to do the same with
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. And if you're the Cowboys, you're in luck
Speaker 1: because even though the Packers have an outstanding pass defense,
Speaker 1: as I've mentioned three times already, they have a pretty
Speaker 1: leaky run defense. And that sounds like a whole lot
Speaker 1: of Ezekiel Elliott to me, with long, methodical drives. And
Speaker 1: you add to that the fact that Tyron Smith is
Speaker 1: going to miss this game, and I think the Cowboys
Speaker 1: are going to have major struggles moving the ball through
Speaker 1: the air, and the Packers are off a mini BI
Speaker 1: and Dallas is on a bit of a short week now.
Speaker 1: I ornarily I would say, okay, well, let the Packers
Speaker 1: are probably going to be able to move the ball
Speaker 1: pretty well put up some points. But again, you've got
Speaker 1: DeVante Adams almost certainly missing this game. Geronimo Allison, Marcus
Speaker 1: Valdez scantling, Jimmy Graham. You saw how frustrated Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: was without Adams there at the end of the game.
Speaker 1: You still have Aaron Jones, of course, but Dallas overall
Speaker 1: has a pretty solid defense, and the Packers, for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: they just stop playing in the side and a half.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how many points I want
Speaker 1: to say, it's like ten points or fewer that they
Speaker 1: put up in the second half all season long. So
Speaker 1: this game strikes me as a close game, relatively low scoring.
Speaker 1: The total has come down since that look aheadline. I
Speaker 1: think it might have been forty seven and a half
Speaker 1: at some point, but for now, I will take the
Speaker 1: under on forty six and a half. And this one
Speaker 1: strikes me as something where it's going to be much
Speaker 1: closer to, like, you know, mid between thirty five and
Speaker 1: forty as both teams try to kind of control the
Speaker 1: ball well.
Speaker 2: And this is another classic case where you're fading the public.
Speaker 2: The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys are two
Speaker 2: of the most traditional public teams. They have some of
Speaker 2: the biggest fan bases out there. People love to bet
Speaker 2: on them, and people love to bet the over. People
Speaker 2: love to root for more points, not fewer points. And
Speaker 2: with that in mind, it does not surprise me that
Speaker 2: the books are inflating maybe the over under by a
Speaker 2: point or two to account for that. And so I
Speaker 2: love this call. I think in general, Aaron Rodgers is
Speaker 2: a little bit more washed than some people might want
Speaker 2: to admit. I'm not saying he's bad. I'm just saying
Speaker 2: he's not the quarterback he once used to be. And
Speaker 2: you see that reflected in their offensive numbers. They rank
Speaker 2: sixteenth and dvs. Thirteenth and passing offense DV away. He
Speaker 2: is not an elite passer anymore. And if they're missing
Speaker 2: Demante Adams, like you said, this could be kind of
Speaker 2: a rude awakening for them against a pretty solid Cowboys defense.
Speaker 2: And above all that point you made about Ezekiel Elliott
Speaker 2: going crazy against this Green Bay running defense, that's a
Speaker 2: great one. The Packers rank twenty seventh in rushing defense
Speaker 2: DVA thirty first in adjusted lineyards along the defensive line.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I totally agree this is a great call.
Speaker 2: It might be the best bet that we've thrown out
Speaker 2: here all game or all day because it is one
Speaker 2: that really kind of clashes against that public team perception.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again it is going against the way the
Speaker 1: game is being bet. It's about fifty to fifty split
Speaker 1: on the over under here in the number of bets,
Speaker 1: but the money coming in is about sixty five percent
Speaker 1: in favor of the under. So that's another game where
Speaker 1: you know the sharper betters are probably hitting the under.
Speaker 1: And again you called it right. I mean, this is
Speaker 1: a game and when book bankers set the lines, they
Speaker 1: think about which way the public is going to go,
Speaker 1: of course, because they want the money to basically even
Speaker 1: out on both sides. So it is something where I
Speaker 1: think this line is set intentionally. It has come down,
Speaker 1: as I've said, but not enough for me to be
Speaker 1: scared off.
Speaker 2: It.
Speaker 1: I feel pretty comfortable at it, even at forty six
Speaker 1: and a half. All right, let us recap. You have
Speaker 1: the Ravens over the Steelers giving three, the Titans laying
Speaker 1: three to the Bills, and the Cardinals getting three from
Speaker 1: the Bengals. I got that right, correct, All right, good,
Speaker 1: I've got the Vikings laying five to the Giants, the
Speaker 1: Charters and the Broncos to go over forty four and
Speaker 1: a half, and the Cowboys and the Packers to come
Speaker 1: in under forty six and a half. Now, before we
Speaker 1: move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor
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Speaker 1: let's move on to it's a trap where we list
Speaker 1: the line that we are avoiding start us off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so there are a couple of directions. I wasn't.
Speaker 2: There are a lot of lines I'm avoiding basically every week.
Speaker 2: I think that's a key takeaway here. But I'm going
Speaker 2: to go with Cleveland at San Francisco minus three and
Speaker 2: a half. I just don't think we know who these
Speaker 2: teams really are yet. We've seen the Browns show some
Speaker 2: science that they're getting on track, and while I did
Speaker 2: expect the forty nine ers to make a bit of
Speaker 2: a leap this season, the way they've done it, mostly
Speaker 2: with defense, has caught me off guard. So I don't
Speaker 2: have a good feel for either of these teams just yet.
Speaker 2: I think it's going to take me a couple more weeks.
Speaker 2: But more than anything else, I just hate the number.
Speaker 2: If it was a flat minus three, I'd feel much
Speaker 2: safer laying the wood with San Francisco, especially as they
Speaker 2: come off their by but that extra half point, while
Speaker 2: it might not seem like much, is enough to scare
Speaker 2: me off. I just have no idea what to do
Speaker 2: with this game. What do you think about Browns at niners?
Speaker 1: One hundred percent?
Speaker 2: There's it.
Speaker 1: First of all, that you bring up a good point,
Speaker 1: which is there's a huge difference between three and three
Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, that's that's a very big difference.
Speaker 1: It's off the key number for me, no idea, And
Speaker 1: that's the thing. I mean last week I felt pretty
Speaker 1: comfortable with the Ravens laying a pretty big number to
Speaker 1: the Browns because everything I had seen from the Browns
Speaker 1: made me essentially think that they're in complete disarray. Well,
Speaker 1: they looked great last week, and I realized there was
Speaker 1: an unexpected injury on the defensive side of the ball
Speaker 1: for Baltimore, but they looked so much better than I
Speaker 1: could remember them looking. And there's no reason for them
Speaker 1: to be playing just so disjointed as they had been
Speaker 1: all season long. So I can see them coming back
Speaker 1: on the other side the forty nine ers. It's this
Speaker 1: is just very unexpected at this point, and I haven't
Speaker 1: really gotten a good sense of that. And again to
Speaker 1: your exact point. And you know, I don't think there
Speaker 1: could be any greater endorsement of the fact that you
Speaker 1: want to avoid this bet is that when you look
Speaker 1: at the consensus breakdown, it's fifty three percent to forty
Speaker 1: seven percent, so it's split roughly down the middle. And
Speaker 1: if you look at the top twenty percent of most
Speaker 1: accurate experts, it's exactly fifty to fifty. I think that
Speaker 1: it basically says it all. It's because there is no
Speaker 1: smart lean on this one whatsoever. I have absolutely no
Speaker 1: feel for it. I'll be honest. I ask our guests
Speaker 1: to send me their picks in advance, just so I
Speaker 1: can make sure that I don't accidentally jump on them beforehand.
Speaker 1: This was definitely going to be my bet to avoid.
Speaker 1: I told Greg, you could do whatever you want, it
Speaker 1: would be fine. This one hundred percent would have been
Speaker 1: my bet to avoid because I have zero feel for it.
Speaker 1: So I hate you for stealing it, but I do
Speaker 1: think that it's a great pick, so I agree one
Speaker 1: hundred percent. For me, I'm going to go with my
Speaker 1: second bet to avoid. And again you pointed it correctly.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of bets that we could be
Speaker 1: talking about each and every week, and especially this week,
Speaker 1: I'm avoiding the Texans laying five to the Falcons. First
Speaker 1: of all, that's basically what I kind of expected to
Speaker 1: see from the point spread. But I think both these
Speaker 1: teams are a little desperate for a win here, and
Speaker 1: I kind of expect this to be a shootout. The
Speaker 1: Falcons defense is pretty banged up. We know they lost
Speaker 1: Kean O'Neil. Deshaun Watson has been playing poorly. There is
Speaker 1: going to be a lot of DeAndre Hopkins in this
Speaker 1: game and a lot of points from Houston. But I
Speaker 1: also think there's going to be a ton of points
Speaker 1: from the Falcons here. And I realized they have not
Speaker 1: played well. They have issues with their offensive line, but
Speaker 1: I think they know they have to get Julio Jones
Speaker 1: and Calvin Ridley more involved than last week. I think
Speaker 1: they can easily have success against the Houston secondary. And
Speaker 1: even if Houston wins like I expect, and even if
Speaker 1: they can jump out to a laite, I can completely
Speaker 1: see this last second cover for the Falcons.
Speaker 2: YEP.
Speaker 1: In this type of game, it's just two teams that
Speaker 1: have really underperformed. In my mind, it's hard to know
Speaker 1: what to expect from them, and I think both teams
Speaker 1: are going to try to use this as a get
Speaker 1: right game. So when I looked at this and I
Speaker 1: could not get a feel for it, So I'm completely
Speaker 1: staying away from this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of the games that I wrote
Speaker 2: up in my rankings article at two qbs dot com
Speaker 2: this week, and the specific conceit was that this game
Speaker 2: could go either way. Like you said, we don't really know,
Speaker 2: you know, are the Falcons truly as bad as they've
Speaker 2: looked so far? I mean, it seems like they are.
Speaker 2: But I think we have to be aware of recency
Speaker 2: bias because the Titans last week. They have a way
Speaker 2: of making other teams look bad, like we talked about earlier,
Speaker 2: and Houston's pass defense is such a mess, Like they
Speaker 2: have so many injuries in that secondary that even if
Speaker 2: Houston is cruising that backdoor cover from Matt Ryan, Julio Jones,
Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley in company, like that's definitely in play. I expected,
Speaker 2: you know, Houston minus three, Houston minus four, So Houston
Speaker 2: minus five or five and a half that that really
Speaker 2: is scary to me. If anything, I would take Atlanta here,
Speaker 2: But I agree in general, it's probably just to stay away.
Speaker 1: The five is kind of what I thought it would be.
Speaker 1: As I said, it's a big number, but again this
Speaker 1: is right. You completely see the back door cover that
Speaker 1: that's exactly what this would be.
Speaker 2: It would be be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel pretty good. I think it's going to
Speaker 1: go and then but the risk of the back door
Speaker 1: cover is just screaming at you from this. So for me,
Speaker 1: I'm totally going to stay away. So you've got your
Speaker 1: avoiding the Browns at the forty nine ers with the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers laying three and a half, and I
Speaker 1: am avoiding the Falcons at the Texans where the Texans
Speaker 1: are laying five. All right, go.
Speaker 2: Ahead, can I I hate to interrupt the show and
Speaker 2: steer this in another direction, but can I throw one
Speaker 2: more game at you just to get your temperature on,
Speaker 2: because this is another one I've been struggling with one
Speaker 2: hundred percent Tampa Bay at New Orleans. The line opened
Speaker 2: is high, I think is five and a half points.
Speaker 2: It's now it's all the way down to three points
Speaker 2: with New Orleans is the favorite. So all the value
Speaker 2: that might have been on Tampa Bay has been bet away.
Speaker 2: And this is another one where another matchup where I
Speaker 2: feel like it's hard to pin down exactly how good
Speaker 2: these teams are. What do you think about this one,
Speaker 2: because this is one that I really struggled with.
Speaker 1: If it's at three right now, is that we're saying
Speaker 1: that because this is all the way down that low?
Speaker 2: Yes, let me see it.
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, all right. I hadn't looked at it
Speaker 1: yet today because last I saw it was at three
Speaker 1: and a half. And again I saw it earlier in
Speaker 1: the week when it was high. No, not at three,
Speaker 1: not not anywhere close to to three. I really liked
Speaker 1: it when it was closer to five. And I liked
Speaker 1: it for the Bucks because I.
Speaker 2: You and everyone else apparently right I got.
Speaker 1: I mean I guarant they got hammered. That the books
Speaker 1: must have gotten completely hammered. I mean, in the end,
Speaker 1: the Saints look they kudos to the coaching staff and
Speaker 1: Sean Payton. They're winning games relying on their defense. Teddy
Speaker 1: Bridgewater looks terrible. I mean, he really just does not
Speaker 1: look good. And although you can attack the Bucks through
Speaker 1: the air, I don't really have faith that Bridgewater is
Speaker 1: going to do it. So I don't expect the Saints
Speaker 1: to be putting up a ton of points here in
Speaker 1: this game, and the bucks, you know, they're a little
Speaker 1: jekyl and I get, but you know you can see
Speaker 1: what that offense can do even against the strong defense.
Speaker 1: So if you were giving me five points, I was
Speaker 1: all over it. At three, I don't like it. If anything,
Speaker 1: I think i'd risk it and take the bucks on
Speaker 1: the money line and go for it that way, because
Speaker 1: I could see them winning out right. But I don't
Speaker 1: think I have any interest in it going three. I actually, honestly,
Speaker 1: I did not even realize that it had gone down
Speaker 1: that low. So certainly that low three and a half,
Speaker 1: I'm a little intrigued where it was, but still probably
Speaker 1: staying away when it was more a four, four and
Speaker 1: a half, even five at some places, I was all
Speaker 1: over it, all right, real quick, Before we get to
Speaker 1: our next segment, I do want to remind everyone about
Speaker 1: our contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara
Speaker 1: helmet courtesy of our good friends over at Pristine Auction.
Speaker 1: You've got a couple more weeks here to enter, so
Speaker 1: go ahead and do so. Just leave a review for
Speaker 1: the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot
Speaker 1: of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com, and
Speaker 1: if you entered last month's contest you are already in,
Speaker 1: so no worries there. All right, Greg, it is time
Speaker 1: for Top Prop, where we list our top player proper
Speaker 1: for the weekend. Now, you mentioned Marquise Brown. Is that right?
Speaker 1: That that was one of the ones you like but
Speaker 1: not your top prop?
Speaker 2: Is that right? Yeah? I considered that one, and that
Speaker 2: one might be safer than the one I'm gonna go with,
Speaker 2: but yeah, I've got a different one, all right, go
Speaker 2: for it. So my top prop is Kyler Murray to
Speaker 2: go over three hundred passing yards at plus three point fifty.
Speaker 2: This pick ties directly into my earlier pick of Arizona,
Speaker 2: and you know that lean towards the over the pace
Speaker 2: of this game should be very up tempo. According to
Speaker 2: Football Outsiders, the Cardinals rank first in situation neutral pace,
Speaker 2: the Bengals ranked twelfth, and overall, the Cards rank first
Speaker 2: and seconds per play while the Bengals ranked seventh, So
Speaker 2: that's in all situations. Murray himself his eclipsed three hundred
Speaker 2: passing yards twice this season, already against Baltimore and against Detroit,
Speaker 2: although that did have some help from overtime. Against the Panthers,
Speaker 2: he only got to one hundred and seventy one yards,
Speaker 2: but Carolina's defense is one of the best in the league.
Speaker 2: And against the Seahawks, Kyler made it to two hundred
Speaker 2: and forty one yards, but Seattle plays with one of
Speaker 2: the slowest paces in the league, so it kind of
Speaker 2: makes sense that the Cardinals got slowed down in that
Speaker 2: he wasn't able to throw quite as much. Now, Kyler
Speaker 2: Murray gets to face an up tempo team with a
Speaker 2: bad defense like the Bengals are really bad, and the
Speaker 2: Cardinals play with that for anatic pace themselves, So I
Speaker 2: think it makes sense to project a lot of yards
Speaker 2: a lot of scoring in this game. As I alluded
Speaker 2: to earlier when discussing the game, you know the line
Speaker 2: and the total. There is some risk of a run
Speaker 2: heavy approach with Arizona with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds,
Speaker 2: And on top of that, we do have yet to
Speaker 2: see either of these teams play with a lead off
Speaker 2: greater than seven points, so we don't really have any
Speaker 2: munication of what their paces might be if they can
Speaker 2: establish some sort of points cushion. So I guess if
Speaker 2: you want to play it more conservative, you can scale
Speaker 2: back the upside and get Kyler Murray to hit two
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty passing yards at plus one oh six.
Speaker 2: So that's kind of a backup if you're not quite
Speaker 2: as greedy as I am. But I'd rather take the
Speaker 2: shot at the bigger payout with three three hundred or
Speaker 2: more passing yards at plus three fifty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the odds there, I mean plus three
Speaker 1: fifty because they are going to be able to move
Speaker 1: the ball pretty much at will. I mean, you see,
Speaker 1: you know, Christian Kirk being out might affect it a
Speaker 1: little bit because I think he's already been rolled out
Speaker 1: for the game. But the Bengals are They're so terrible
Speaker 1: at tackling. I wrote off the game against the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers where they could not tackle anyone, because they
Speaker 1: looked halfway decent against the Seahawks in Week one, but man,
Speaker 1: they are just I mean, you can take a short,
Speaker 1: you know, screen pass, or you can take a slant
Speaker 1: and you can just take it to the house because
Speaker 1: I can't tackle anybody. I was going to ask you,
Speaker 1: but you brought it up and you got ahead of it.
Speaker 1: Is that you did say that you expected this to
Speaker 1: be probably focused a little bit more on the run
Speaker 1: ideally for the Cardinals. But at plus three fifty, I mean,
Speaker 1: those are great odds in the game where Murray, who
Speaker 1: has put up you know, big passing numbers already at
Speaker 1: some point this season, can get there again. So I
Speaker 1: do like to pick, particularly with the odds, and I
Speaker 1: like going a little boulder, you know, and then the
Speaker 1: two fifty because you know, plus three fifty that's a
Speaker 1: nice little pay day if you can hit it well.
Speaker 2: And as much as we might look at the matchup
Speaker 2: and say, oh, they should be running the ball more,
Speaker 2: we know that that's not the Arizona philosophy, right. Kingsbury
Speaker 2: wants to be chucking it all the time. He wants
Speaker 2: to run four wide, five wide, and when he gets
Speaker 2: to face is a team as bad as the Bengals,
Speaker 2: he actually will have the opportunity to do that without
Speaker 2: you know, even if he does like forgo that good
Speaker 2: rushing matchup, so he can still rush at times and
Speaker 2: exploit that. But I think if anything, he might just
Speaker 2: do that to set up more passing, because we know
Speaker 2: that's what he really wants to be doing.
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, he makes no secrets about it, so I
Speaker 1: like it, especially with the gian ods that you're getting.
Speaker 1: I'm going to go a little more conservative, but it
Speaker 1: does tie into one of my other picks, or rather
Speaker 1: non pick, and I am taking DeAndre Hopkins to go
Speaker 1: over eighty six and a half yards at minus one fourteen.
Speaker 1: If DeAndre Hopkins does not go over eighty six and
Speaker 1: a half yards, I am going to do one of
Speaker 1: next week shows with a British accent the entire way. Okay,
Speaker 1: he has surpassed that number in just one of four
Speaker 1: games this year, but it's about to be two. I
Speaker 1: don't know which one of Desmond Trufont or Isaiah Oliver
Speaker 1: is going to be on Hopkins for most of the day,
Speaker 1: but it's not going to matter. As I said, I
Speaker 1: think the Texans are going to put up a ton
Speaker 1: of points here. I think Hopkins is going to have
Speaker 1: a big role in it. And at minus one fourteen,
Speaker 1: I mean, that's really not that much deuce to have
Speaker 1: to lay. So I feel pretty confident. I realize I
Speaker 1: know one out of the four games, but this is
Speaker 1: a game both him and Julio Jones I think are
Speaker 1: gonna have huge games. I expect both teams to put
Speaker 1: up a ton of points here so if he doesn't
Speaker 1: go over eighty. So this is the prop. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be honest, This is the prop since we started this
Speaker 1: that I feel most confident in. So I'm calling it
Speaker 1: British accent. If it doesn't hit, I'm ready to do
Speaker 1: it on one of the next two shows.
Speaker 2: Are you with me? I love it. I think this
Speaker 2: is going to be one of those shootout type matchups,
Speaker 2: and especially considering that Atlanta's secondary Hopkins should be able
Speaker 2: to get his They're going to try to get him going.
Speaker 2: The main concern I might have is that if Atlanta,
Speaker 2: knowing that they have such a bad pass defense, focuses
Speaker 2: a ton of attention on Hopkins, maybe Will Fuller and
Speaker 2: Kiki qt are the two who do most of the damage.
Speaker 2: But we've seen teams try to, you know, rein in
Speaker 2: Hopkins in the past. It's just not that easy to do,
Speaker 2: even with you know, occasional double coverage. So I like it.
Speaker 2: I think I might have even gone bolder, like looked
Speaker 2: at the props for one hundred yards or what, but
Speaker 2: maybe the payoffs just wasn't quite there. I'm not sure
Speaker 2: exactly what you were looking at. But I like it.
Speaker 2: Eighty six yards seems like a gimme.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree that. You know, especially Kenny Stills
Speaker 1: is probably gonna be out for this game, so that's
Speaker 1: one fear weapon you could have the defenses focusing in
Speaker 1: on Hopkins. I expect Will Fuller to have the game too.
Speaker 1: But the thing is just not with Trufont and Oliver Like,
Speaker 1: it's not gonna matter to me. You can give them
Speaker 1: safety help. I don't think it's gonna matter with Hopkins
Speaker 1: in this game. I think this is a game. You know,
Speaker 1: it's not quite Adam feelin But there's rumblings here about
Speaker 1: the fact that Hopkins hasn't gotten any production and that
Speaker 1: he needs to and again, you know he could have
Speaker 1: in the past. Watson has just missed him a couple
Speaker 1: of times, him and Fuller last week, as he explained
Speaker 1: that in that great clip with that reporter. But in
Speaker 1: the end, I think this is gonna be a Mantras game.
Speaker 1: I would I would probably lay it on a Will
Speaker 1: Fuller prop too, because I think both guys are gonna
Speaker 1: have a big one. So you will go with Kyler Murray,
Speaker 1: who I hope you're right by the way, because I
Speaker 1: do have a lot of stocking him in fantasy. I'm
Speaker 1: just going to throw that out there to go over
Speaker 1: three hundred passing yards at plus three fifty, I'm going
Speaker 1: to take DeAndre Hopkins over eighty six and a half
Speaker 1: receiving yards at minus one fourteen. Well, that's going to
Speaker 1: do it for today's show. Thanks for joining me.
Speaker 2: Greg.
Speaker 1: Remind everyone where they can find more of you in
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. You can find me podcasting over at four
Speaker 2: for four weekly. I do a recap and waiver recommendation
Speaker 2: show early in the week for fantasy football, and then
Speaker 2: on that same feed the most Accurate podcast. You're also
Speaker 2: going to get episodes from John Paulson and Anthony Stalter,
Speaker 2: and if you're familiar with Fantasy pros, Pulson is one
Speaker 2: of the most accurate guys year after years, So definitely
Speaker 2: want to check out our podcast feed over there. You
Speaker 2: can find my weekly rankings for fantasy football over at
Speaker 2: two qbs dot com and then those articles. I try
Speaker 2: to work in a pick or two every week. I
Speaker 2: do a gameplbotics spreadsheet. You'll see me tweet out every
Speaker 2: once in a while. All these DVOA numbers, all these
Speaker 2: point differential numbers, that stuff that I'm pulling directly from
Speaker 2: the spreadsheet. It's publicly available data from football outsiders. I
Speaker 2: color code the spreadsheets so that you can kind of
Speaker 2: see how the teams match up against each other. I
Speaker 2: started making it for myself way back in the day
Speaker 2: just as a tool to use week to week when
Speaker 2: I'm figuring out which I want to use in fantasy,
Speaker 2: which games I want to bet, and I decided, Hey,
Speaker 2: might as well just put this out there for everybody
Speaker 2: to use. So check that out and otherwise follow me
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Gregsauce.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you do awesome work. I really want to make
Speaker 1: sure everybody goes and checks it out because you know,
Speaker 1: I've been following you sort of. You know, this is
Speaker 1: the first time you and I have ever actually talked,
Speaker 1: but I've been following your work for a while, so
Speaker 1: it was really great to have you on I hope
Speaker 1: we can talk again this season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks Sam, good luck with the Scott.
Speaker 1: Fishbol Thanks a lot. I want to remind everyone about
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Speaker 1: my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early lines
Speaker 1: next week, so