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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan

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Speaker 1: Harris and you can find me on Twitter at Dan

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Speaker 1: Harris Adi. It's time to break down some of our

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Speaker 1: favorite and our least favorite bets for the Week five

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Speaker 1: NFL Slate, and with me to talk about it all

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Speaker 1: is Greg Smith, co founder of two qbs dot com,

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Speaker 1: writer and podcaster for four for four dot com, one

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Speaker 1: of the most accurate sports betters in the Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: Com Accuracy Challenge, and most notably the man who narrowly

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Speaker 1: lost to me in the semi finals of the Scott

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Speaker 1: Fishbowl last season. You can find him on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Greg Sauce. It is about time we got to talk, Greg.

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Speaker 1: How the heck are YEA?

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Speaker 2: I'm doing all right? Man. That's some sick rubbins you

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Speaker 2: just got on the I mean fishball beating. It gave me.

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Speaker 2: But I was I was in it, man, I was

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Speaker 2: in there for for a long time. I'm proud I

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Speaker 2: made it as far as I did, but man, you

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Speaker 2: came so close to winning it all.

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate that I did. I definitely do not

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Speaker 1: lose sleep over the fact that had I just started

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Speaker 1: to see Anderson, I would have been the champion for

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Speaker 1: the scott Fish Bowl eight. I'm definitely not bitter about

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Speaker 1: it at all. But we had a lot of fun

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Speaker 1: doing that, and you know, I know you're in it

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Speaker 1: again this year. Hopefully things will turn out just a

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Speaker 1: smidge better for both of us. So look, for a

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Speaker 1: while there, I checked it out. You were, I believe,

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Speaker 1: leading the accuracy competition in our Betting pros dot com chowns.

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Speaker 1: Was that right or you were one or two right before?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I came out real hot in the first three weeks.

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Speaker 2: I was definitely number one in percentage of correct picks,

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Speaker 2: and I was just a little bit behind after week

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Speaker 2: three in terms of units one I I was just

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Speaker 2: barely behind somebody else. And forgive me for forgetting that

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Speaker 2: person's name. I would say, look it up on bettingpros

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Speaker 2: dot com. But yeah, I had a really good run

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Speaker 2: for the first three weeks, and then week four, the

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Speaker 2: great equalizer came crashing back down to earth. That's just

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Speaker 2: kind of how it goes sometimes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you and me and a lot of betters out there.

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Speaker 1: Week four was a real tough one and full disclosure,

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Speaker 1: because we had been on a pretty good run here

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Speaker 1: on this podcast, I certainly got a few wrong last week.

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Speaker 1: I was wrong on both the Pats laying seven to

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Speaker 1: the Bills, which by the way, was perhaps the most

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Speaker 1: annoying game I've ever seen because the Pats had about

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Speaker 1: fifty chances to cover but just couldn't get those extra

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Speaker 1: two points. I was also wrong in the Cardinals getting

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Speaker 1: six from the Seahawks, as well as my Marlon Mack

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Speaker 1: prop bet. Now I did hit on the Panthers Texans

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Speaker 1: coming in under forty seven and a half, so not

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Speaker 1: a complete wipeout, and our guest jj Epersina had a

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Speaker 1: pretty nice weekend, actually nailing three of his four bets.

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Speaker 1: So let's both go for the clean sweeper. Are you

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Speaker 1: good with that? Greg?

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Speaker 2: Sounds good to me. Let's do it all right.

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Speaker 1: As always, We're gonna get started here with pick six,

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Speaker 1: where both Greg and I are going to give three

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Speaker 1: of our favorite bets for this weekend, either against the

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Speaker 1: spread or on the over under. And as always, I

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Speaker 1: will note at the outset that we're recording this shortly

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Speaker 1: before the Thursday night game between the Rams and the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: so we will not be making any picks on that game,

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Speaker 1: But if you want to see how I or Greg

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Speaker 1: picked that game, you can go to Bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: That's gonna show you how I and every betting expert

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Speaker 1: who makes picks on the site made their picks for

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Speaker 1: every game. We're also going to be using the bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com consensus odds and making our picks. Those are

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Speaker 1: the aggrig at odds that you'll find available in the market.

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Speaker 1: All right, Greg, start us off. What's your first pick here?

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Speaker 2: So I'm taking Baltimore minus three at Pittsburgh. The Steelers

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Speaker 2: are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football,

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Speaker 2: and they have an average point differential of minus three

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Speaker 2: point zero through four weeks. And meanwhile, Baltimore has an

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Speaker 2: average point differential of plus eight point eight points. So

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Speaker 2: even if home field is worth three points, that should

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Speaker 2: still put the Ravens as bigger favorites. In my mind,

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Speaker 2: I expected a larger spread here. It actually started at

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Speaker 2: three point five. It's been bet down to three. I

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Speaker 2: liked it at three and a half. I like it

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Speaker 2: even more at three. So I'm really into this line,

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Speaker 2: this pick. If you want to go deeper on kind

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Speaker 2: of the efficiency metrics for these two teams. I like

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Speaker 2: to use DVA from football outsiders, and it's all more

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Speaker 2: good news for Baltimore. The Ravens ranked fifth in total DVA,

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Speaker 2: the Steelers ranked twenty fourth. The Ravens have the third

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Speaker 2: best offense, sixth in passing efficiency, and first in rushing efficiency.

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Speaker 2: The Steelers ranked nineteenth in defense, nineteenth against the past,

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Speaker 2: twentieth against the run, and in the running game, there

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Speaker 2: is a huge mismatch in the trenches. Pittsburgh D line

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Speaker 2: ranks twenty eighth in adjusted line yards. Baltimore's O line

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Speaker 2: ranks second. So either the Steelers are going to get

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Speaker 2: run over by mark Ingram and Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 2: or the Steelers are going to have to sell out

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Speaker 2: against the run and risk getting burned by Marcus Brown

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Speaker 2: and the rest of the receivers in that receiving core

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Speaker 2: for Baltimore. And on that note, I know we're going

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Speaker 2: to get to player props later, but I like taking

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Speaker 2: Marquise Brown to top one hundred receiving yards at plus

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Speaker 2: two thirty five on points bet. I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: make that my official player prop for this podcast. I'll

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Speaker 2: save that one for later, because I do think there

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Speaker 2: is some risk that the running game goes hand for

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Speaker 2: Baltimore and they just might not need to pass that

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Speaker 2: much either way, I just don't trust Mason Rudolph to

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Speaker 2: keep up on the other side of the ball. So

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Speaker 2: I love the Ravens minus three.

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Speaker 1: Well, first of all, I appreciate you not completely ruining

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Speaker 1: the way I like to structure this show by giving

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Speaker 1: away your top prop. But that is nice that you

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Speaker 1: added on a bonus. There a couple things here. I

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Speaker 1: first of all, I agree with you. When I look

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Speaker 1: at the line generally, it just it screams to me Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised because I'm looking at our consensus breakdown.

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Speaker 1: Fifty seven percent of experts are going here with Pittsburgh. Now,

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Speaker 1: some of them got in probably when it was closer

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Speaker 1: to four, because the consensus has moved a bit. But

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised by that. The one thing

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Speaker 1: that makes me a little hesitant about this, and I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering whether or not this factor's into at all. Team.

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Speaker 1: I know they have, you know, new offenses. I know

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Speaker 1: Roethlisberger's not there, and Lamar Jackson's obviously new, and so

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Speaker 1: everything's a little different. Every time these teams play, it's

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Speaker 1: basically a close game. Half their games, you know, over

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Speaker 1: the last several seasons, basically are decided by three points exactly.

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Speaker 1: So does that type of history factor in it all

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Speaker 1: or do you just throw it out because it's an

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Speaker 1: entirely new sort of set of circumstances here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, new teams, and most importantly, it's a new quarterback

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Speaker 2: for Pittsburgh. Like all those other games are played with

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Speaker 2: Ben Roethlisberger, this one's played with Mason Rudolph. That's a

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Speaker 2: huge deal. Like that's a major downgrade, especially if you've

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Speaker 2: been watching mesro Rudolph over the past few weeks. He's

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Speaker 2: looked serviceable. He's a game manager type so far, but

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Speaker 2: has he looked good no way. Has he been able

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Speaker 2: to push the ball down the field, not at all.

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Speaker 2: I don't trust him in this matchup whatsoever against a

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Speaker 2: good coach, a good team in Baltimore, and I just

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Speaker 2: think they're gonna get run off the fie. Now, if the

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Speaker 2: line was four or five points, I'd be a little

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Speaker 2: bit more hesitant. But if all Baltimore has to do

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Speaker 2: is win, by field goal. I think that's very easily doable.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised that the line is here.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'll be honest. Again, that gives me a

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Speaker 1: little bit of pause, just because again it's a divisional game.

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Speaker 1: They're always a little bit scary, and the fact that

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Speaker 1: the teams know each other well, even though the offenses

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Speaker 1: are different in different quarterbacks. Of course, really, for me,

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh didn't look that good. I know, they ran all

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Speaker 1: over since Cincinnati. I mean, first of all, any Andy

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Speaker 1: Dalton led team in primetime is basically a guarantee to collapse.

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Speaker 1: But you know, the Bengals really aren't good, and it

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Speaker 1: was very gimmicky to me, right, I mean, it was

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Speaker 1: a lot of wildcat a lot of short passes. I

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Speaker 1: just do not see them being able to replicate that

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Speaker 1: again against Baltimore. So I don't think I've made my

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Speaker 1: official pick on the site yet. I certainly lean that way.

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Speaker 1: It gave me a little bit of pause because of

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Speaker 1: the fact that the teams know each other so well.

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Speaker 1: They're almost always within three points. They're certainly almost legitimately

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Speaker 1: every time basically within one score. But certainly, if I

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Speaker 1: lean one way, I'm inclined to agree with you there.

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Speaker 1: I agree on Baltimore laying three my first bet. Now,

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Speaker 1: if you listen to the Monday show where we give

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Speaker 1: our initial reactions to the lines, then you'll probably know

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Speaker 1: that I'm going to be taking the Vikings laying five

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Speaker 1: to the Giants. Now, there are a couple of things here.

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Speaker 1: The bettingpros dot Com expert consensus rankers are pretty much

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Speaker 1: split down the middle of this game. They slightly lean

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Speaker 1: towards Minnesota. It's fifty four percent to fifty six percent.

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Speaker 2: Well, we've also got.

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Speaker 1: A thing where we show you how the most accurate rankers,

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Speaker 1: the top twenty percent, and that's both Greg and me,

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Speaker 1: we're both in there. That's seventy seven percent are taking

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Speaker 1: the Giants, which makes me a little scared. So bear

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Speaker 1: that in mind when I say that this is my

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Speaker 1: favorite spread on the slate. Now, I'm having trouble personally

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Speaker 1: seeing a scenario where this is not a get right

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Speaker 1: game for Minnesota. They are coming off this horrible, embarrassing

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Speaker 1: loss to the Bears, and now they have losses to

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Speaker 1: both the Bears and the Packers. They certainly cannot afford

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Speaker 1: to lose a game like this. They've obviously struggled with

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Speaker 1: their passing game. You've got Adam Theln calling out the

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Speaker 1: entire game plan. By the way, you should play Adam

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Speaker 1: Feelin and all your dear lineups this week, to be clear.

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Speaker 1: But you've got Stefan Diggs basically begging the team to

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Speaker 1: trade him. You've got Kirk Cousins apologizing for his terrible play,

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Speaker 1: but putting that aside, Cousins is not a terrible quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's had several terrible matchups, but we know

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Speaker 1: that he's competent. And although the Vikings offensive line is

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Speaker 1: not great, the Giants have absolutely no pass rush. They're

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Speaker 1: twenty fifth in the league against the pass, and they

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Speaker 1: really struggle against play action. Genorrah Jenkins is fine, but

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Speaker 1: you can't draw conclusions from the way they played against

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Speaker 1: the Redskins. Now the Vikings, in addition to I think

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Speaker 1: finally here opening up the passing game, they of course

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Speaker 1: still have the dominant running game with Dalvin Cook and

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Speaker 1: the Giants, who don't have a great run defense anyway,

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Speaker 1: just lost Ryan Connelly, one of their linebackers, to a

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Speaker 1: torn acl baby Alec Oltletree comes back, but I don't

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Speaker 1: think he'd play a full complement of stats anyway. So

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Speaker 1: this strikes me as a game in which the Vikings

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Speaker 1: offense is gonna look really strong and basically establish themselves.

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Speaker 1: And on the other side, I think Daniel Jones probably

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Speaker 1: looked better than his end line against the Redskins, but

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Speaker 1: he obviously came back to Earth. There's still know Saquon Barkley.

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Speaker 1: I don't care about all this nonsense about how they're

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Speaker 1: not ruling him out yet if they play him there insane.

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Speaker 1: Wayne Goalman is serviceable, but he's not gonna win the

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Speaker 1: game for them. I get Golden Tate is coming back

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Speaker 1: and that helps, but he's been away from the team

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Speaker 1: for about a month, and the Vikings defense is excellent.

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Speaker 1: They're seventh in the league in points in yordage allowed

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Speaker 1: ever since. Griffin is playing great, Hunter is playing great,

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Speaker 1: and Mike Zimmer knows Pat Shermer from his time with

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Speaker 1: the Vikings. So I have this awful feeling as I

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Speaker 1: look and I see how the most accurate experts are

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Speaker 1: going on, and because I love this bet so much,

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Speaker 1: I have this awful feeling that there's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: ton of like sharp action that comes in late on

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Speaker 1: Sunday or something like that, because the bets overall here,

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Speaker 1: the money and the number of bets generally are favoring

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Speaker 1: the Vikings. But I really don't care. To me, I'm

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Speaker 1: taking the Vikings laying five, and I feel pretty good

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Speaker 1: about it. I don't know how you feel.

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Speaker 2: Now, I'm with you on that. I love the point

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Speaker 2: you brought up about how they're not giving up that

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Speaker 2: many points. Their point differential is five point three points

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Speaker 2: per game. New York is at negative two and a

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Speaker 2: half points, so right there you can kind of see

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Speaker 2: where that's spread comes from, right to some extent, sure,

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Speaker 2: especially factoring in three points for home field. And that's

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Speaker 2: my biggest concern here is that you're taking the Vikings

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Speaker 2: on the road. But hopefully that means that they are

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Speaker 2: going to have to pass a little bit more. They're

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Speaker 2: not just going to be able to lean on that

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Speaker 2: running game like they normally would. And along those lines,

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Speaker 2: I think this is one of those squeaky wheel gets

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Speaker 2: the grease sorts of scenarios with Adam Deelan and Stefan Diggs.

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Speaker 2: Like I do think they are going to make an

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Speaker 2: effort to pass a little bit more and this is

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Speaker 2: the perfect match to do it. Like you said, the

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Speaker 2: Giants have been pretty bad against the pass, and I

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Speaker 2: think this is a get right game for the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: I really like this call.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly how I feel. And I get the

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Speaker 1: road thing. Of course they're in New York. But I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: I realize they've played so much better at home than

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Speaker 1: on the road. But on the road they've placed that

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Speaker 1: They've faced the Packers and the Bears. I mean that

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Speaker 1: those are two very very strong defenses, you know, especially

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Speaker 1: the Packers against the pass, So you know I'm going

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Speaker 1: to give them a little bit of a pass for that.

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Speaker 1: I just think this is I mean, as much as

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Speaker 1: they seem like they might be in disarray, they just

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Speaker 1: strike me as a much much better team. And as

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Speaker 1: much as I like Daniel Jones and like what I've

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Speaker 1: seen from him, I'm not really buying that he's sort

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Speaker 1: of going to be this guy who's going to transform

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Speaker 1: this team. I think the Vikings win here, and I

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Speaker 1: think they win big, So I'll take that. Who's your

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Speaker 1: second pick?

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Speaker 2: So I'm taking the Titans minus two and a half

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Speaker 2: against Buffalo. The Titans are at home average point differential

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Speaker 2: for Tennessee is seven point three points and it's three

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Speaker 2: point three points for Buffalo. So it should come as

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Speaker 2: no surprise that after the line opened at Titans minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half, it got bet up to Titans

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Speaker 2: minus three. Either way, like, I still like the Titans

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Speaker 2: at minus three. If Josh Allen doesn't clear concussion protocol,

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Speaker 2: the Bills are going to start Matt Barkley in this game.

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Speaker 2: But even if all and play still have a tough

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Speaker 2: time against Santassee's defense, they're super balanced against the run.

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Speaker 2: They rank thirteenth in DVA and fifth in adjusted lineyards

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Speaker 2: against the pass. The Titans ranked twelfth and DVA and

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Speaker 2: eighth then adjusted sack rate. Buffalo's defense ranks better in

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Speaker 2: overall DVOA, ranking fourth in the NFL, but that's mostly

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Speaker 2: due to how excellent their pass defense has been. Their

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Speaker 2: rank third, and pass defense dv away the Bills do.

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Speaker 2: But the Bills have been much worse against the run,

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Speaker 2: where they're ranked twenty fifth in the DVA. So I

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Speaker 2: think you got to look for Derek Henry and Dean

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Speaker 2: Lewis to do some damage in this contest. All in all,

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Speaker 2: I just think these two teams are really close, but

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Speaker 2: the Titans are slightly better, and they're playing at home,

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Speaker 2: and Buffalo's quarterback is questionable. So give me Tennessee at

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Speaker 2: minus two and a half or minus three.

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Speaker 1: Out of curiosity. How would you feel about the fact

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Speaker 1: if Allan is ruled out and Barkley plays, Because again,

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Speaker 1: we know Matt Barkley from his career. He did look,

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Speaker 1: you know, decent when he filled in there against the

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Speaker 1: Pats and Allen as sort of. He's able to make

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Speaker 1: plays with his legs. He's incredibly inaccurate. I mean he

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Speaker 1: throws more than an interception per game. Does it significantly

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Speaker 1: like strengthen your bet if you find out Parkley? Because

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say I agree with you. I like

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Speaker 1: Tennessee here laying three points. It doesn't really matter to me.

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Speaker 1: But I don't feel like it would make a huge

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Speaker 1: difference to me necessarily if it were Matt Barkley versus

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen. I don't know if you agree with that.

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Speaker 2: No, I don't think it would either. I mean, it

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Speaker 2: makes some difference, but ultimately these are two sketchy quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: and I would rather than be facing Barkley just because

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Speaker 2: he hasn't had all the preseason and practice in real

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Speaker 2: game reps for the first few weeks of the season.

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Speaker 2: Think that matters, and in general, Tennessee just has a

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Speaker 2: way of looking all offenses look really bad, Like look

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Speaker 2: what they did to Matt Ryan and the Falcons last

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Speaker 2: year or last week. That was one of the few

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Speaker 2: games I got right in Week four. So maybe I'm,

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Speaker 2: you know, chasing the points here a little bit with

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Speaker 2: the Titans because Buffalo's defense is good. Like That's what

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Speaker 2: gives me some pause here, is that maybe they just

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Speaker 2: keep it close through their defense. It doesn't matter how

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Speaker 2: bad their quarterback play is, because it's not like, you know,

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Speaker 2: Marcus Mariota is a world beater either. My main concern

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Speaker 2: here is whether or not the Mariota will kind of

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Speaker 2: shoot himself in the foot in this game against a

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Speaker 2: real defense, because last week he wasn't playing that in

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Speaker 2: the Falcons. But I like the Titans defense, I like

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Speaker 2: their running game, and I think that those two aspects

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Speaker 2: of their team line up really well against Buffalo this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, certainly. If there is a weakness to

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Speaker 1: the Buffalo defense, and again it is really strong, I

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Speaker 1: completely undersold it last week when the Pats were going

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Speaker 1: in there, and I you know, the way they performed

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Speaker 1: was really, really, you know, surprising to me, although probably

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Speaker 1: shouldn't have been. But in the end, if you are

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Speaker 1: going to attack them, it is probably on the ground.

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Speaker 1: And again, just to make it clear, the betters, at

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Speaker 1: least on bettingpros dot com, the consensus are with you

335
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Speaker 1: fifty eight percent taking Tennessee here, and of the most

336
00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,839
Speaker 1: accurate the top twenty percent, eighty three percent are taking

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Speaker 1: the Titans. So that is the way that I am

338
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Speaker 1: leaning as well. So I like that pick. I think

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Speaker 1: it's good. I don't have any concerns even if Josh

340
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Speaker 1: Allen plays. So my next pick is that I'm gonna

341
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Speaker 1: go a little over under here, and I'm going to

342
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Speaker 1: go the Broncos and Chargers over forty four and a half. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think this might be the first over that I've

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Speaker 1: picked on this show. Greg, So you are basically here

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Speaker 1: for history. Well, all right, let's do it every time.

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Speaker 1: Every time you come in the show, I will pick

347
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Speaker 1: an over. That's my promise to you if you come back.

348
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Speaker 1: Both offenses here have been surprisingly competent, and surprisingly that's

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Speaker 1: really for the Broncos. Okay, the Chargers, they sort of

350
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,560
Speaker 1: are what they are, other than on the road against

351
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,760
Speaker 1: the Lions, have been better defensively, frankly than I think

352
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Speaker 1: people myself included expected. They've been able to put up points.

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Speaker 1: They're third in the league in passing yards per game,

354
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Speaker 1: fifth and totally yards per game. They'll get Melvin Gordon

355
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Speaker 1: back here. Mike Williams looks like he'll be good to go.

356
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Speaker 1: I know it was limited and pres this today, but

357
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Speaker 1: he does look like he's trending in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: There's little reason to think that they'll struggle to move

359
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:07,120
Speaker 1: the ball against Denver. Everyone knows that the Broncos didn't

360
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,600
Speaker 1: have a sack until last week against the Jaguars. Now

361
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Speaker 1: Bradley Chubb is out for the season. It's skewed a

362
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Speaker 1: bit by the fact that Fournette, you know, had that

363
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,600
Speaker 1: huge game last week. But Denver is thirtieth against the

364
00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 1: run and Chris Harris, Mayshadow, Keenan Allen. That's certainly something

365
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,840
Speaker 1: to consider, But I just don't see anything from the

366
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Speaker 1: Broncos to suggest that their defense is going to be

367
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Speaker 1: able to hold the Chargers in check here. Now, the

368
00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 1: Broncos on the other side of the ball have a

369
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Speaker 1: kind of surprisingly competent offense. I mean, Joe Flacco has

370
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 1: actually fitting kind of well with the system. He's on

371
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 1: pace for forty three hundred and four passing yards, just

372
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,600
Speaker 1: a shy off his career best. And remember they've played

373
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Speaker 1: the Bears and the Packers, two very strong defenses. Again,

374
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Speaker 1: as I said earlier, the Packers, particularly against the pass.

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Speaker 1: Emmanuel Sanders has made a miraculous recovery from last year's injury.

376
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton is very underrated. They have two solid running

377
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 1: backs in Lindsay and Freeman, and the Chargers, as usual,

378
00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 1: are dealing with a ton of injuries on both sides

379
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Speaker 1: of the ball, especially on defense. They're about middle of

380
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 1: the road in defense despite playing a lot of struggling offenses.

381
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Speaker 1: It looks like Melvin Ingram might miss this game, further

382
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 1: weakening that defense. So I expect both teams here to

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00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,640
Speaker 1: be able to top twenty points. So I admit I'm

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Speaker 1: slightly nervous at taking an over when it involves the Broncos,

385
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Speaker 1: But here I think that both teams are going to

386
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Speaker 1: be able to move the ball on the opposing defenses,

387
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Speaker 1: So I'm fine with laying some money on over forty

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Speaker 1: four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, soe. My biggest concern with this over is the

390
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Speaker 2: risk of just getting games scripted out of it, because

391
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Speaker 2: we've seen how easily teams have been able to run

392
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Speaker 2: on the Broncos, and if the Chargers have been paying attention,

393
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 2: they would maybe try to lean into that trend and

394
00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 2: just pound Melvin Gordon, pound Austin Eckler into the ground

395
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 2: here and just slow the game down, you know, win

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Speaker 2: small and not drive the score up. That would be

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Speaker 2: my primary concern here. Do you have any worries about

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Speaker 2: that sort of outcome?

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Speaker 1: Sure, but I mean, look at what the Jaguars did

400
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 1: last week with Leonard Fournette and that game, I think

401
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,440
Speaker 1: total fifty when it was end. I mean, I agree

402
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Speaker 1: that I certainly think that they could do it. But

403
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Speaker 1: I think the difference is I think I think that

404
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 1: the Broncos are able to score, you know, and I

405
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,960
Speaker 1: think that they're desperate. Not that that really matters because

406
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,920
Speaker 1: they're not a great team. Although they easily could have

407
00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,360
Speaker 1: three wins at this point, they they've let a few

408
00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:15,879
Speaker 1: games get away. So even if the Chargers lean on

409
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Speaker 1: the run here heavily and again I don't expect Melvin

410
00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 1: Gordon to just come out here and get twenty five

411
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,639
Speaker 1: carries or anything like that. I'm right, I mean, you know,

412
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 1: in the end, that's what it is. And Eckler, you know,

413
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 1: is great, but he's not a guy who you can

414
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:27,919
Speaker 1: pound into the ground right there. He's much more out

415
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,200
Speaker 1: of the passing game. I think that, you know, they'll

416
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,120
Speaker 1: take their shots enough, but what it really comes down

417
00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,119
Speaker 1: to is, even if they lean on the run, I

418
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,400
Speaker 1: expect the Broncos to be able to put up points here.

419
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,600
Speaker 1: So I don't see this as a Chargers are up

420
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 1: seventeen to nothing and they're just gonna run and slow

421
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,600
Speaker 1: the ball that I think that they the Broncos are

422
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 1: going to be able to put up points here. So

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Speaker 1: I'm okay forty four and a half. I admit completely.

424
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Speaker 1: I have minor concerns here, especially because the Broncos, and

425
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Speaker 1: I don't like, you know, the Broncos basically are going

426
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Speaker 1: to have to put up twenty points to be able

427
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Speaker 1: to make this work. But I think they can and

428
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Speaker 1: I think, you know, again, they've also played some tough defenses.

429
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,159
Speaker 1: They've played the Packers, they played the Bear, so the

430
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,919
Speaker 1: fact that Joe Flacco is performing as he is and

431
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 1: the offense is gelling as much as it is, I

432
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,159
Speaker 1: think is sort of a testament to the fact that

433
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 1: they probably actually have a pretty decent offense, and I

434
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,440
Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to move the ball here.

435
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. The thing I like about this bet is that

436
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,679
Speaker 2: it kind of plays against public perception, which is a

437
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,200
Speaker 2: big part I think of sports betting is you kind

438
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,160
Speaker 2: of have to fade the public for the most part,

439
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 2: and people are going to look at the Broncos versus

440
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 2: the Chargers and they're going to think back to not

441
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 2: just last week and the week before that, but even

442
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 2: last season, and there's this residual effect of these teams

443
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 2: are good defensive teams, and oh, I want to take

444
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 2: the under on this over under. But I like the

445
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,000
Speaker 2: case that you've laid out, Like you look at the

446
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 2: offense for Denver, they've been surprisingly good, they ranked twelfth

447
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,959
Speaker 2: and DVA, and the passing defense for the Chargers has

448
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 2: been surprisingly bad, the thirtieth in DVA. So I see

449
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 2: the blueprint for what you're going for. Like I said,

450
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 2: my main concern is that considering how banged up the

451
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,919
Speaker 2: Chargers receivers are and the fact that they've just got

452
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 2: Melvin Gordon back makes me think that they might just

453
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 2: try to slow the game down, run fewer plays, and

454
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,160
Speaker 2: just just go with a run heavy approach. But yeah,

455
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:06,399
Speaker 2: if the Broncos can score, am.

456
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 1: I not mat Yeah, And it's a good point you

457
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 1: bring up when you're fading the public, because that's a

458
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 1: winning strategy in the long term, and here it kind

459
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 1: of plays right into that. I'm looking at the splits.

460
00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:19,880
Speaker 1: It's roughly fifty to fifty slightly more on the under

461
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 1: here on the number of bets, but the total money

462
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 1: bet is about three to one in favor of the over.

463
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 1: So I think that that shows you that most likely

464
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,400
Speaker 1: the sharper betters are going with the over, and they're

465
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 1: going against the public, and that's usually a winning scenario.

466
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:35,160
Speaker 1: So for that reason, I feel pretty good there about

467
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: going with over forty four and a half. Let's get

468
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 1: to your third one here, what do you got for me?

469
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 2: Okay, this team has burned me continuously through the season,

470
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 2: but I'm taking the Cardinals plus three at Cincinnati.

471
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 1: Wow.

472
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 2: These teams rank thirtieth and thirty first in total dvaway

473
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,920
Speaker 2: and if you look at the Dave Numbers, the Dave

474
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,679
Speaker 2: Numbers at Football Outsiders, which wait their presets and projections,

475
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 2: they rank twenty ninth and thirty first, and we're splitting

476
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 2: hairs when it comes to teams that are that close.

477
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 2: But in both cases, Arizona ranked higher than Cincinnati. So

478
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 2: while we have to take a grit assault for the

479
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 2: slim margins between these two teams, the Cardinals are a

480
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 2: better team analytically. They also have a better point differential

481
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 2: than the Bengals by about three points, So how come

482
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 2: the Cards are three point underdogs. Ultimately, this matchup just

483
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 2: appears to be a true test of that home field

484
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 2: advantage being worth three point scenario right. But as close

485
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 2: as this these two teams are in overall efficiency, there

486
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,439
Speaker 2: are certain angles where I feel like Arizona has a

487
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 2: distinct advantage. Specifically with their rushing offense. The Cardinals ranked

488
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 2: fifth and rushing offense DVA, while the Bengals ranked twenty

489
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 2: second in rushing defense dvaway and as bad as the

490
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 2: Arizona O line has been in pass protection, where they're

491
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 2: twenty eighth in adjusted sacrate, they've been really solid in

492
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 2: the running game with an adjusted lineyards mark ranking eleventh

493
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,560
Speaker 2: best in the NFL. And for comparison, you look at

494
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 2: the other side of the line matchup there, the Bengals

495
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,959
Speaker 2: D line ranks twenty second in adjusted lineyards. So you

496
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 2: add it all up, and the Cardinals should be able

497
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 2: to run the ball. And that's probably the biggest concern

498
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,959
Speaker 2: I have with someone who might try to tuck themselves

499
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 2: into the over on this game of forty seven points

500
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 2: based upon the project pace of these two teams. Like like,

501
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 2: don't get me wrong, I think the over is probably

502
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 2: still a better bet than the under based on those

503
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,440
Speaker 2: projected pay stats, But I don't know. We haven't seen

504
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 2: these teams play with a big lead yet, and so

505
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 2: if Arizona gets up big or if Cincinnati gets up big,

506
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 2: does that that pace that we're expecting come crashing down.

507
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 2: But in general, Arizona is by far the fastest team.

508
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 2: Cincinnati ranks tenth in seconds per play, And when the

509
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 2: score differential is plus or minus six points, you know

510
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: that is a one possession game. So I'm not going

511
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 2: to pick the over with high confidence. There's just too

512
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,479
Speaker 2: much risk of a run heavy approach from Arizona kind

513
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 2: of sucking the life out of the ball like we

514
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: just talked about with the Chargers, especially now that the

515
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 2: Bengals are missing John Brown to injury. So while I

516
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 2: do like the over in this matchup, I'm much more

517
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 2: inclined just to tap the underdog who probably shouldn't be

518
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 2: an underdog. So I'm gonna take the points. I'm gonna

519
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 2: take Arizona. I think that they should be able to

520
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 2: cover this, if not win it out right.

521
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, the consensus is with the sixty three percent favorite

522
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 1: Arizona and seventy three percent of the top twenty percent

523
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: most accurate experts also favorite Arizona. I think we can

524
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 1: put this one. I think, honestly, with all of your

525
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: picks every they all fall into the same bucket for

526
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: how I feel about them, which is when I make

527
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 1: my picks on the site, I'm going to go with

528
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 1: them because that is the way I lean. I don't

529
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: feel quite as strong about it, just because I feel

530
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 1: like I've been backing Arizona, you know, especially last week

531
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: against the Seahawks and they look terrible. I actually think,

532
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: you know, you brought up the injury to John Ross,

533
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: and I think that actually is a big deal. If

534
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: just because it strikes me as Zach Taylor's system kind

535
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 1: of needs someone to really stretch the field there to

536
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 1: open things up, right. I mean, even though Ross doesn't

537
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,159
Speaker 1: get that many targets and he's really just kind of

538
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: a big play guy, or he had been so far,

539
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: you know, you don't have aj Green yet. So without

540
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 1: that field stretcher right there, I actually think that that's

541
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: going to have a pretty big impact on the way

542
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: the Bengals are able to run their offense. And again,

543
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 1: they're coming off the short week. They looked absolutely terrible.

544
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 1: Their offensive line is dreadful, and again it's too bad defensive.

545
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: So I agree with you know, probably lean towards the overall.

546
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 1: I know that's not your pick anyway, but I do

547
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 1: think that Cincinnati might have a little more trouble. You know,

548
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: I know they couldn't move the ball at all last

549
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: week against the Steelers, but I think they might have

550
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 1: sort of surprising trouble putting up points here against an

551
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 1: admittedly bad defense. So I certainly lean towards Arizona with you.

552
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: I'm not going crazy over it just because man, Arizona,

553
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: it's they're just not a great football team, especially right

554
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 1: now with Peterson still out, and you know their injuries

555
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: to their cornerbacks and their offensive line as well. But

556
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 1: if they lean on the run here a little more,

557
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 1: which is what you think they're going to wind up doing,

558
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 1: I certainly think that that leans towards Arizona getting three points.

559
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on here. My last one is

560
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: I am taking another over under here, but I'm going

561
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: back to my favorite, which is under, and I'm going

562
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 1: to take the Cowboys and the Packers to come in

563
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 1: under forty six and a half. Now, my reasoning here

564
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: is not rocket science. Just take a giant step back.

565
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 1: Think about the game from like an average football fans

566
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: point of view. If you are the Packers defense, you

567
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 1: probably want to do what you can to keep Dak

568
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 1: Prescott on the sideline as much as possible. And if

569
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: you're the Cowboys, you want to do the same with

570
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. And if you're the Cowboys, you're in luck

571
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 1: because even though the Packers have an outstanding pass defense,

572
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 1: as I've mentioned three times already, they have a pretty

573
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: leaky run defense. And that sounds like a whole lot

574
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: of Ezekiel Elliott to me, with long, methodical drives. And

575
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 1: you add to that the fact that Tyron Smith is

576
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 1: going to miss this game, and I think the Cowboys

577
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 1: are going to have major struggles moving the ball through

578
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: the air, and the Packers are off a mini BI

579
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 1: and Dallas is on a bit of a short week now.

580
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 1: I ornarily I would say, okay, well, let the Packers

581
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:40,479
Speaker 1: are probably going to be able to move the ball

582
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 1: pretty well put up some points. But again, you've got

583
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 1: DeVante Adams almost certainly missing this game. Geronimo Allison, Marcus

584
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: Valdez scantling, Jimmy Graham. You saw how frustrated Aaron Rodgers

585
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 1: was without Adams there at the end of the game.

586
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 1: You still have Aaron Jones, of course, but Dallas overall

587
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: has a pretty solid defense, and the Packers, for whatever reason,

588
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 1: they just stop playing in the side and a half.

589
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how many points I want

590
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: to say, it's like ten points or fewer that they

591
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: put up in the second half all season long. So

592
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: this game strikes me as a close game, relatively low scoring.

593
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: The total has come down since that look aheadline. I

594
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: think it might have been forty seven and a half

595
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: at some point, but for now, I will take the

596
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: under on forty six and a half. And this one

597
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 1: strikes me as something where it's going to be much

598
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: closer to, like, you know, mid between thirty five and

599
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 1: forty as both teams try to kind of control the

600
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: ball well.

601
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: And this is another classic case where you're fading the public.

602
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 2: The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys are two

603
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: of the most traditional public teams. They have some of

604
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: the biggest fan bases out there. People love to bet

605
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 2: on them, and people love to bet the over. People

606
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: love to root for more points, not fewer points. And

607
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 2: with that in mind, it does not surprise me that

608
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 2: the books are inflating maybe the over under by a

609
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 2: point or two to account for that. And so I

610
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 2: love this call. I think in general, Aaron Rodgers is

611
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: a little bit more washed than some people might want

612
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 2: to admit. I'm not saying he's bad. I'm just saying

613
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 2: he's not the quarterback he once used to be. And

614
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 2: you see that reflected in their offensive numbers. They rank

615
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 2: sixteenth and dvs. Thirteenth and passing offense DV away. He

616
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 2: is not an elite passer anymore. And if they're missing

617
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 2: Demante Adams, like you said, this could be kind of

618
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 2: a rude awakening for them against a pretty solid Cowboys defense.

619
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 2: And above all that point you made about Ezekiel Elliott

620
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 2: going crazy against this Green Bay running defense, that's a

621
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 2: great one. The Packers rank twenty seventh in rushing defense

622
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 2: DVA thirty first in adjusted lineyards along the defensive line.

623
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, I totally agree this is a great call.

624
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 2: It might be the best bet that we've thrown out

625
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 2: here all game or all day because it is one

626
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 2: that really kind of clashes against that public team perception.

627
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again it is going against the way the

628
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: game is being bet. It's about fifty to fifty split

629
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 1: on the over under here in the number of bets,

630
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: but the money coming in is about sixty five percent

631
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 1: in favor of the under. So that's another game where

632
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: you know the sharper betters are probably hitting the under.

633
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: And again you called it right. I mean, this is

634
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: a game and when book bankers set the lines, they

635
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: think about which way the public is going to go,

636
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 1: of course, because they want the money to basically even

637
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: out on both sides. So it is something where I

638
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: think this line is set intentionally. It has come down,

639
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: as I've said, but not enough for me to be

640
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:04,719
Speaker 1: scared off.

641
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: It.

642
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: I feel pretty comfortable at it, even at forty six

643
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: and a half. All right, let us recap. You have

644
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: the Ravens over the Steelers giving three, the Titans laying

645
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 1: three to the Bills, and the Cardinals getting three from

646
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 1: the Bengals. I got that right, correct, All right, good,

647
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 1: I've got the Vikings laying five to the Giants, the

648
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 1: Charters and the Broncos to go over forty four and

649
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: a half, and the Cowboys and the Packers to come

650
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: in under forty six and a half. Now, before we

651
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor

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663
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00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,160
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682
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,120
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00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,720
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684
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00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: gambling problem, called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Greg,

686
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: let's move on to it's a trap where we list

687
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: the line that we are avoiding start us off.

688
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, so there are a couple of directions. I wasn't.

689
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 2: There are a lot of lines I'm avoiding basically every week.

690
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 2: I think that's a key takeaway here. But I'm going

691
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 2: to go with Cleveland at San Francisco minus three and

692
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: a half. I just don't think we know who these

693
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: teams really are yet. We've seen the Browns show some

694
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 2: science that they're getting on track, and while I did

695
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 2: expect the forty nine ers to make a bit of

696
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: a leap this season, the way they've done it, mostly

697
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 2: with defense, has caught me off guard. So I don't

698
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 2: have a good feel for either of these teams just yet.

699
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 2: I think it's going to take me a couple more weeks.

700
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: But more than anything else, I just hate the number.

701
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: If it was a flat minus three, I'd feel much

702
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 2: safer laying the wood with San Francisco, especially as they

703
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 2: come off their by but that extra half point, while

704
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 2: it might not seem like much, is enough to scare

705
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 2: me off. I just have no idea what to do

706
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 2: with this game. What do you think about Browns at niners?

707
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 1: One hundred percent?

708
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 2: There's it.

709
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: First of all, that you bring up a good point,

710
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: which is there's a huge difference between three and three

711
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, that's that's a very big difference.

712
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: It's off the key number for me, no idea, And

713
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 1: that's the thing. I mean last week I felt pretty

714
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: comfortable with the Ravens laying a pretty big number to

715
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 1: the Browns because everything I had seen from the Browns

716
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: made me essentially think that they're in complete disarray. Well,

717
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 1: they looked great last week, and I realized there was

718
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: an unexpected injury on the defensive side of the ball

719
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 1: for Baltimore, but they looked so much better than I

720
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: could remember them looking. And there's no reason for them

721
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: to be playing just so disjointed as they had been

722
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 1: all season long. So I can see them coming back

723
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: on the other side the forty nine ers. It's this

724
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: is just very unexpected at this point, and I haven't

725
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: really gotten a good sense of that. And again to

726
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: your exact point. And you know, I don't think there

727
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: could be any greater endorsement of the fact that you

728
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 1: want to avoid this bet is that when you look

729
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: at the consensus breakdown, it's fifty three percent to forty

730
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: seven percent, so it's split roughly down the middle. And

731
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: if you look at the top twenty percent of most

732
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: accurate experts, it's exactly fifty to fifty. I think that

733
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: it basically says it all. It's because there is no

734
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: smart lean on this one whatsoever. I have absolutely no

735
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: feel for it. I'll be honest. I ask our guests

736
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: to send me their picks in advance, just so I

737
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: can make sure that I don't accidentally jump on them beforehand.

738
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,959
Speaker 1: This was definitely going to be my bet to avoid.

739
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 1: I told Greg, you could do whatever you want, it

740
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 1: would be fine. This one hundred percent would have been

741
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: my bet to avoid because I have zero feel for it.

742
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: So I hate you for stealing it, but I do

743
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: think that it's a great pick, so I agree one

744
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 1: hundred percent. For me, I'm going to go with my

745
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 1: second bet to avoid. And again you pointed it correctly.

746
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: There are a lot of bets that we could be

747
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: talking about each and every week, and especially this week,

748
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: I'm avoiding the Texans laying five to the Falcons. First

749
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 1: of all, that's basically what I kind of expected to

750
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: see from the point spread. But I think both these

751
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: teams are a little desperate for a win here, and

752
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 1: I kind of expect this to be a shootout. The

753
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: Falcons defense is pretty banged up. We know they lost

754
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: Kean O'Neil. Deshaun Watson has been playing poorly. There is

755
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: going to be a lot of DeAndre Hopkins in this

756
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: game and a lot of points from Houston. But I

757
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: also think there's going to be a ton of points

758
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: from the Falcons here. And I realized they have not

759
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: played well. They have issues with their offensive line, but

760
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: I think they know they have to get Julio Jones

761
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: and Calvin Ridley more involved than last week. I think

762
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: they can easily have success against the Houston secondary. And

763
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 1: even if Houston wins like I expect, and even if

764
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: they can jump out to a laite, I can completely

765
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: see this last second cover for the Falcons.

766
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 2: YEP.

767
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: In this type of game, it's just two teams that

768
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: have really underperformed. In my mind, it's hard to know

769
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: what to expect from them, and I think both teams

770
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: are going to try to use this as a get

771
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: right game. So when I looked at this and I

772
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: could not get a feel for it, So I'm completely

773
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 1: staying away from this.

774
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of the games that I wrote

775
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 2: up in my rankings article at two qbs dot com

776
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 2: this week, and the specific conceit was that this game

777
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: could go either way. Like you said, we don't really know,

778
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 2: you know, are the Falcons truly as bad as they've

779
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: looked so far? I mean, it seems like they are.

780
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 2: But I think we have to be aware of recency

781
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 2: bias because the Titans last week. They have a way

782
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: of making other teams look bad, like we talked about earlier,

783
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 2: and Houston's pass defense is such a mess, Like they

784
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: have so many injuries in that secondary that even if

785
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 2: Houston is cruising that backdoor cover from Matt Ryan, Julio Jones,

786
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley in company, like that's definitely in play. I expected,

787
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: you know, Houston minus three, Houston minus four, So Houston

788
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: minus five or five and a half that that really

789
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 2: is scary to me. If anything, I would take Atlanta here,

790
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: But I agree in general, it's probably just to stay away.

791
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: The five is kind of what I thought it would be.

792
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 1: As I said, it's a big number, but again this

793
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: is right. You completely see the back door cover that

794
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 1: that's exactly what this would be.

795
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 2: It would be be.

796
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel pretty good. I think it's going to

797
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 1: go and then but the risk of the back door

798
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: cover is just screaming at you from this. So for me,

799
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: I'm totally going to stay away. So you've got your

800
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 1: avoiding the Browns at the forty nine ers with the

801
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 1: forty nine ers laying three and a half, and I

802
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 1: am avoiding the Falcons at the Texans where the Texans

803
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: are laying five. All right, go.

804
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 2: Ahead, can I I hate to interrupt the show and

805
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,719
Speaker 2: steer this in another direction, but can I throw one

806
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: more game at you just to get your temperature on,

807
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: because this is another one I've been struggling with one

808
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 2: hundred percent Tampa Bay at New Orleans. The line opened

809
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 2: is high, I think is five and a half points.

810
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 2: It's now it's all the way down to three points

811
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: with New Orleans is the favorite. So all the value

812
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: that might have been on Tampa Bay has been bet away.

813
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: And this is another one where another matchup where I

814
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 2: feel like it's hard to pin down exactly how good

815
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 2: these teams are. What do you think about this one,

816
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: because this is one that I really struggled with.

817
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: If it's at three right now, is that we're saying

818
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: that because this is all the way down that low?

819
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 2: Yes, let me see it.

820
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, all right. I hadn't looked at it

821
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 1: yet today because last I saw it was at three

822
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: and a half. And again I saw it earlier in

823
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 1: the week when it was high. No, not at three,

824
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 1: not not anywhere close to to three. I really liked

825
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: it when it was closer to five. And I liked

826
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: it for the Bucks because I.

827
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 2: You and everyone else apparently right I got.

828
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 1: I mean I guarant they got hammered. That the books

829
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 1: must have gotten completely hammered. I mean, in the end,

830
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 1: the Saints look they kudos to the coaching staff and

831
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,879
Speaker 1: Sean Payton. They're winning games relying on their defense. Teddy

832
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 1: Bridgewater looks terrible. I mean, he really just does not

833
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: look good. And although you can attack the Bucks through

834
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: the air, I don't really have faith that Bridgewater is

835
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 1: going to do it. So I don't expect the Saints

836
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: to be putting up a ton of points here in

837
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,479
Speaker 1: this game, and the bucks, you know, they're a little

838
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: jekyl and I get, but you know you can see

839
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 1: what that offense can do even against the strong defense.

840
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: So if you were giving me five points, I was

841
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 1: all over it. At three, I don't like it. If anything,

842
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 1: I think i'd risk it and take the bucks on

843
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 1: the money line and go for it that way, because

844
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,479
Speaker 1: I could see them winning out right. But I don't

845
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 1: think I have any interest in it going three. I actually, honestly,

846
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: I did not even realize that it had gone down

847
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: that low. So certainly that low three and a half,

848
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 1: I'm a little intrigued where it was, but still probably

849
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 1: staying away when it was more a four, four and

850
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: a half, even five at some places, I was all

851
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: over it, all right, real quick, Before we get to

852
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: our next segment, I do want to remind everyone about

853
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: our contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara

854
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: helmet courtesy of our good friends over at Pristine Auction.

855
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 1: You've got a couple more weeks here to enter, so

856
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 1: go ahead and do so. Just leave a review for

857
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 1: the show on iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot

858
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com, and

859
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: if you entered last month's contest you are already in,

860
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: so no worries there. All right, Greg, it is time

861
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 1: for Top Prop, where we list our top player proper

862
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: for the weekend. Now, you mentioned Marquise Brown. Is that right?

863
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 1: That that was one of the ones you like but

864
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: not your top prop?

865
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 2: Is that right? Yeah? I considered that one, and that

866
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 2: one might be safer than the one I'm gonna go with,

867
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 2: but yeah, I've got a different one, all right, go

868
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: for it. So my top prop is Kyler Murray to

869
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 2: go over three hundred passing yards at plus three point fifty.

870
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 2: This pick ties directly into my earlier pick of Arizona,

871
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,959
Speaker 2: and you know that lean towards the over the pace

872
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: of this game should be very up tempo. According to

873
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 2: Football Outsiders, the Cardinals rank first in situation neutral pace,

874
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,879
Speaker 2: the Bengals ranked twelfth, and overall, the Cards rank first

875
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 2: and seconds per play while the Bengals ranked seventh, So

876
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: that's in all situations. Murray himself his eclipsed three hundred

877
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 2: passing yards twice this season, already against Baltimore and against Detroit,

878
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 2: although that did have some help from overtime. Against the Panthers,

879
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 2: he only got to one hundred and seventy one yards,

880
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: but Carolina's defense is one of the best in the league.

881
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 2: And against the Seahawks, Kyler made it to two hundred

882
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 2: and forty one yards, but Seattle plays with one of

883
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 2: the slowest paces in the league, so it kind of

884
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 2: makes sense that the Cardinals got slowed down in that

885
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 2: he wasn't able to throw quite as much. Now, Kyler

886
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 2: Murray gets to face an up tempo team with a

887
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 2: bad defense like the Bengals are really bad, and the

888
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 2: Cardinals play with that for anatic pace themselves, So I

889
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 2: think it makes sense to project a lot of yards

890
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: a lot of scoring in this game. As I alluded

891
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: to earlier when discussing the game, you know the line

892
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 2: and the total. There is some risk of a run

893
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 2: heavy approach with Arizona with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds,

894
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 2: And on top of that, we do have yet to

895
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 2: see either of these teams play with a lead off

896
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 2: greater than seven points, so we don't really have any

897
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 2: munication of what their paces might be if they can

898
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: establish some sort of points cushion. So I guess if

899
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 2: you want to play it more conservative, you can scale

900
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 2: back the upside and get Kyler Murray to hit two

901
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:38,959
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty passing yards at plus one oh six.

902
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 2: So that's kind of a backup if you're not quite

903
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 2: as greedy as I am. But I'd rather take the

904
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 2: shot at the bigger payout with three three hundred or

905
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 2: more passing yards at plus three fifty.

906
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the odds there, I mean plus three

907
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 1: fifty because they are going to be able to move

908
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 1: the ball pretty much at will. I mean, you see,

909
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: you know, Christian Kirk being out might affect it a

910
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: little bit because I think he's already been rolled out

911
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 1: for the game. But the Bengals are They're so terrible

912
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 1: at tackling. I wrote off the game against the forty

913
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 1: nine ers where they could not tackle anyone, because they

914
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 1: looked halfway decent against the Seahawks in Week one, but man,

915
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,240
Speaker 1: they are just I mean, you can take a short,

916
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 1: you know, screen pass, or you can take a slant

917
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:17,959
Speaker 1: and you can just take it to the house because

918
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 1: I can't tackle anybody. I was going to ask you,

919
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: but you brought it up and you got ahead of it.

920
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: Is that you did say that you expected this to

921
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: be probably focused a little bit more on the run

922
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: ideally for the Cardinals. But at plus three fifty, I mean,

923
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: those are great odds in the game where Murray, who

924
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 1: has put up you know, big passing numbers already at

925
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: some point this season, can get there again. So I

926
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 1: do like to pick, particularly with the odds, and I

927
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: like going a little boulder, you know, and then the

928
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 1: two fifty because you know, plus three fifty that's a

929
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 1: nice little pay day if you can hit it well.

930
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 2: And as much as we might look at the matchup

931
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 2: and say, oh, they should be running the ball more,

932
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 2: we know that that's not the Arizona philosophy, right. Kingsbury

933
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: wants to be chucking it all the time. He wants

934
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: to run four wide, five wide, and when he gets

935
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 2: to face is a team as bad as the Bengals,

936
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 2: he actually will have the opportunity to do that without

937
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 2: you know, even if he does like forgo that good

938
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 2: rushing matchup, so he can still rush at times and

939
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 2: exploit that. But I think if anything, he might just

940
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 2: do that to set up more passing, because we know

941
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 2: that's what he really wants to be doing.

942
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, he makes no secrets about it, so I

943
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 1: like it, especially with the gian ods that you're getting.

944
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to go a little more conservative, but it

945
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: does tie into one of my other picks, or rather

946
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 1: non pick, and I am taking DeAndre Hopkins to go

947
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: over eighty six and a half yards at minus one fourteen.

948
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 1: If DeAndre Hopkins does not go over eighty six and

949
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: a half yards, I am going to do one of

950
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: next week shows with a British accent the entire way. Okay,

951
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 1: he has surpassed that number in just one of four

952
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 1: games this year, but it's about to be two. I

953
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 1: don't know which one of Desmond Trufont or Isaiah Oliver

954
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: is going to be on Hopkins for most of the day,

955
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 1: but it's not going to matter. As I said, I

956
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 1: think the Texans are going to put up a ton

957
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 1: of points here. I think Hopkins is going to have

958
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 1: a big role in it. And at minus one fourteen,

959
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 1: I mean, that's really not that much deuce to have

960
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: to lay. So I feel pretty confident. I realize I

961
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: know one out of the four games, but this is

962
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 1: a game both him and Julio Jones I think are

963
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 1: gonna have huge games. I expect both teams to put

964
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: up a ton of points here so if he doesn't

965
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 1: go over eighty. So this is the prop. I'm gonna

966
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: be honest, This is the prop since we started this

967
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 1: that I feel most confident in. So I'm calling it

968
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: British accent. If it doesn't hit, I'm ready to do

969
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: it on one of the next two shows.

970
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 2: Are you with me? I love it. I think this

971
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 2: is going to be one of those shootout type matchups,

972
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 2: and especially considering that Atlanta's secondary Hopkins should be able

973
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 2: to get his They're going to try to get him going.

974
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 2: The main concern I might have is that if Atlanta,

975
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,280
Speaker 2: knowing that they have such a bad pass defense, focuses

976
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 2: a ton of attention on Hopkins, maybe Will Fuller and

977
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 2: Kiki qt are the two who do most of the damage.

978
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 2: But we've seen teams try to, you know, rein in

979
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 2: Hopkins in the past. It's just not that easy to do,

980
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 2: even with you know, occasional double coverage. So I like it.

981
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: I think I might have even gone bolder, like looked

982
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,360
Speaker 2: at the props for one hundred yards or what, but

983
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 2: maybe the payoffs just wasn't quite there. I'm not sure

984
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: exactly what you were looking at. But I like it.

985
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 2: Eighty six yards seems like a gimme.

986
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree that. You know, especially Kenny Stills

987
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:11,359
Speaker 1: is probably gonna be out for this game, so that's

988
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 1: one fear weapon you could have the defenses focusing in

989
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: on Hopkins. I expect Will Fuller to have the game too.

990
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 1: But the thing is just not with Trufont and Oliver Like,

991
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 1: it's not gonna matter to me. You can give them

992
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: safety help. I don't think it's gonna matter with Hopkins

993
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: in this game. I think this is a game. You know,

994
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,919
Speaker 1: it's not quite Adam feelin But there's rumblings here about

995
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: the fact that Hopkins hasn't gotten any production and that

996
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 1: he needs to and again, you know he could have

997
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 1: in the past. Watson has just missed him a couple

998
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 1: of times, him and Fuller last week, as he explained

999
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: that in that great clip with that reporter. But in

1000
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: the end, I think this is gonna be a Mantras game.

1001
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 1: I would I would probably lay it on a Will

1002
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,439
Speaker 1: Fuller prop too, because I think both guys are gonna

1003
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: have a big one. So you will go with Kyler Murray,

1004
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 1: who I hope you're right by the way, because I

1005
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 1: do have a lot of stocking him in fantasy. I'm

1006
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,399
Speaker 1: just going to throw that out there to go over

1007
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 1: three hundred passing yards at plus three fifty, I'm going

1008
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 1: to take DeAndre Hopkins over eighty six and a half

1009
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 1: receiving yards at minus one fourteen. Well, that's going to

1010
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 1: do it for today's show. Thanks for joining me.

1011
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 2: Greg.

1012
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 1: Remind everyone where they can find more of you in

1013
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: your work.

1014
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. You can find me podcasting over at four

1015
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 2: for four weekly. I do a recap and waiver recommendation

1016
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 2: show early in the week for fantasy football, and then

1017
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 2: on that same feed the most Accurate podcast. You're also

1018
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: going to get episodes from John Paulson and Anthony Stalter,

1019
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 2: and if you're familiar with Fantasy pros, Pulson is one

1020
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 2: of the most accurate guys year after years, So definitely

1021
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: want to check out our podcast feed over there. You

1022
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 2: can find my weekly rankings for fantasy football over at

1023
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 2: two qbs dot com and then those articles. I try

1024
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: to work in a pick or two every week. I

1025
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 2: do a gameplbotics spreadsheet. You'll see me tweet out every

1026
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 2: once in a while. All these DVOA numbers, all these

1027
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 2: point differential numbers, that stuff that I'm pulling directly from

1028
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 2: the spreadsheet. It's publicly available data from football outsiders. I

1029
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 2: color code the spreadsheets so that you can kind of

1030
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 2: see how the teams match up against each other. I

1031
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 2: started making it for myself way back in the day

1032
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 2: just as a tool to use week to week when

1033
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 2: I'm figuring out which I want to use in fantasy,

1034
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: which games I want to bet, and I decided, Hey,

1035
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 2: might as well just put this out there for everybody

1036
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 2: to use. So check that out and otherwise follow me

1037
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Gregsauce.

1038
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, you do awesome work. I really want to make

1039
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: sure everybody goes and checks it out because you know,

1040
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: I've been following you sort of. You know, this is

1041
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 1: the first time you and I have ever actually talked,

1042
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 1: but I've been following your work for a while, so

1043
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 1: it was really great to have you on I hope

1044
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: we can talk again this season.

1045
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks Sam, good luck with the Scott.

1046
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: Fishbol Thanks a lot. I want to remind everyone about

1047
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 1: bet MGM, where you can place your first wager of

1048
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 1: up to five hundred dollars risk free, and don't forget

1049
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 1: to leave us a review on iTunes or Stitcher and

1050
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 1: send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros

1051
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 1: dot com to be entered into our Alvin Kamara signed

1052
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this week, and

1053
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 1: my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early lines

1054
00:43:45,120 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 1: next week, so