WEBVTT - Robert Cahaly - The Buck Sexton Show

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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<v Speaker 1>you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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<v Speaker 1>wherever you get your podcasts. Everybody, Welcome to the Buck

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<v Speaker 1>Sexton Show. You know, people talk a lot about what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on with the presidential election already, the primaries are underway,

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna have voting in about six months. What does

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<v Speaker 1>the data tell us and what are we gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>learning in the weeks and months ahead. Robert Kahaley is

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<v Speaker 1>with us now. He is the CEO of the Trafalgar Group,

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<v Speaker 1>polling and marketing group gurus if you will, in the

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<v Speaker 1>realm of poling marketing. Robert, thanks for joining.

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<v Speaker 2>Good to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>So tell me, if you would, what what are we

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<v Speaker 1>seeing right now that is significant? Other than on the

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<v Speaker 1>Republican side, Trump has an enormous lead. Is that very

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<v Speaker 1>different from other periods in the summertime? If we look

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<v Speaker 1>at previous primaries where somebody was way ahead, and then

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<v Speaker 1>you know, with this in the context, have we seen

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<v Speaker 1>anything like this before? How How much is this sort

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<v Speaker 1>of determinative at this point?

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<v Speaker 2>One thing I can say for certain is no, we've

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<v Speaker 2>never seen any of this before. There's not a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of certainly his business, but that this is unique certainly

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<v Speaker 2>one of them. Uh yeah, we've seen people have leads

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<v Speaker 2>not usually this big, not usually over fifty percent on

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<v Speaker 2>nationwide compared to all the other candidates, So that that's

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<v Speaker 2>very historic, and that's just not something we're used to.

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<v Speaker 2>What I think is what we're seeing more. It's more

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<v Speaker 2>interesting now is kind of the reshuffling in the in

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<v Speaker 2>the bottom of the pack, you know where for a

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<v Speaker 2>long time we've had Trump at the top and then

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<v Speaker 2>Desianus our back and then it's just been kind of

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<v Speaker 2>a jumble. And what what we've seen recently is the

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<v Speaker 2>emergence of Vivekraswami and Tim Scott. They seem to be

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<v Speaker 2>kind of jumping ahead of a lot of the others,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, especially some like Haylu started early and

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<v Speaker 2>kind of taking some of the steam away from them.

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<v Speaker 1>Do we have some senses to what did the field

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<v Speaker 1>look like on the Republican side in the summer of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty sixteen. I mean, I know, I'm kind of putting

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<v Speaker 1>you on the spot, but you do polls for a living.

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<v Speaker 1>How does this look compared.

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<v Speaker 2>To that by the summer of twenty sixteen from.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Summer of twenty fifteen, go.

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<v Speaker 2>Ahead, I knew you're gonna make it hard. Yeah, Trump

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<v Speaker 2>was leading in a plurality in a lot of places,

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<v Speaker 2>and there was this thought that that can't be real

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<v Speaker 2>and that it's just a matter of time. So so

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<v Speaker 2>many of these others just figured, hey, when the others

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<v Speaker 2>get out, you know, it'll it'll kind of go away.

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<v Speaker 2>But yeah, he definitely was leading. If you remember, he

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<v Speaker 2>was center stage on most of the debates that happened

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<v Speaker 2>in summer of twenty fifteen and the fall of twenty fifteen.

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<v Speaker 2>He was almost always at the top, usually with a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit more than the third But that's it. So

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<v Speaker 2>it wasn't this type of lead and that it wasn't

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<v Speaker 2>there wasn't such a hard line. And again at that time,

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<v Speaker 2>some of the most conservative voters were still for Crews

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<v Speaker 2>because they didn't Trump. They didn't trust Trump to be conservative.

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<v Speaker 2>And so some of Trump's most ardent supporters now in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty fifteen, where some of twenty fifteen were some of

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<v Speaker 2>the people who were most saying, we can't trust them,

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<v Speaker 2>this guy's not conservative. And in many ways you prove

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<v Speaker 2>those people wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>code or call eight hundred seventy nine to two three two

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<v Speaker 1>six ' nine. Now have you have you been able

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<v Speaker 1>to look at polls and run some numbers on DeSantis

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<v Speaker 1>was doing pretty well in the beginning of this year,

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<v Speaker 1>right the start of twenty twenty three, he had closed

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the gap. And then he announced and

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<v Speaker 1>then the numbers started going in the in the other direction.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe they were going the other direction before then. I'd

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<v Speaker 1>have to go back and look and check. But are

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<v Speaker 1>you able to get a sense from from polling as

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<v Speaker 1>to what happened?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, the Santis campaign is kind of a

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<v Speaker 2>lot like that college football team that everybody talks about.

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<v Speaker 2>Main they had a great recruiting class, they're going to

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<v Speaker 2>be awesome, and they're you know, pretty ran to the

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<v Speaker 2>number three in the country of the first and the

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<v Speaker 2>first game of the season comes in, like whoa, Well,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe aren't they aren't so good? And what Trump Trump

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<v Speaker 2>had If Dessantus had gotten in versus Trump right in

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<v Speaker 2>late January early February, before the indictments and stuff started

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<v Speaker 2>to happen, this will be a much more competitive race.

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<v Speaker 2>But once that started to happen, and those people are

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<v Speaker 2>still kind of up for grabs because there's still question

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<v Speaker 2>as to whether the Santas was really going to get

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<v Speaker 2>in and how long it was taken to why it

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<v Speaker 2>was taking so long. Trump kind of took those people

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<v Speaker 2>that were in between them that could have gone either way.

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<v Speaker 2>And the more of the indictments came in, the more

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<v Speaker 2>Trump was center stage. I mean, publicity is like it's

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<v Speaker 2>to Trump like oxygen to a fire. The more publicity

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<v Speaker 2>he gets, the stronger he gets. And it doesn't matter

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<v Speaker 2>whether it's you know, essentially being in an oj oj

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<v Speaker 2>style covered car ride to turn himself in or whatever,

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<v Speaker 2>it is that publicity help him. And that more than anything,

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<v Speaker 2>more than any misstep on DeSantis's part or his campaigns,

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<v Speaker 2>it was the publicity for Trump that gave Trump this advantage.

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<v Speaker 1>Now what are we seeing at this point? What are

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<v Speaker 1>you seeing in terms of the polls when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the critical swing states in a matchup between Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and Biden.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we've we've looked, we've looked at quite a few

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<v Speaker 2>of these and we and we've looked at Biden versus Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>and we've looked at at de Santis versus Trump, and

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<v Speaker 2>what we have found is that media has done such

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<v Speaker 2>a good job of demonizing DeSantis that there is no

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<v Speaker 2>appreciable difference, and in most cases, Trump has a slight edge.

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<v Speaker 2>What we do find in these swing states for the

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<v Speaker 2>most part, whereas abortion was it was a big issue

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<v Speaker 2>that kind of pushed its way into twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 2>and most of the states it's kind of settled. And

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<v Speaker 2>the situation where if you really want abortion to be

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<v Speaker 2>legal in your state, it is, and if you really

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<v Speaker 2>wanted some more restrictions, they got passed. And so this idea,

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<v Speaker 2>the fear of what would happen and the result of

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<v Speaker 2>getting rid of Row versus Wade, has now been overcome

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<v Speaker 2>by the reality that it didn't change your life very much,

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<v Speaker 2>depending upon which state you lived in. So you take

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<v Speaker 2>that kind of big, big draw off the table, and

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<v Speaker 2>then then we moved back to you know, kitchen table issues.

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<v Speaker 2>Biden is dismal. We look at national security. People are afraid,

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<v Speaker 2>they're afraid of China and Russia getting together, and Trump

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<v Speaker 2>or Desantus has a little bit of an edge there,

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<v Speaker 2>and then you you have this this dynamic of people

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<v Speaker 2>that look at what's been happening and and they see

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<v Speaker 2>that when they're when they're really scared, and that we

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<v Speaker 2>asked them the question of do you think Ukraine would

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<v Speaker 2>have been invaded by Russia if Trump was still president

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<v Speaker 2>and in every swing state the answera is no. So

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<v Speaker 2>this is idea that you know he you might not

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<v Speaker 2>like a lot about him, but there's no question he's

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<v Speaker 2>a strong leader. And right now, you know there's a vacuum,

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<v Speaker 2>and when there's a vacuum for power and America doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>post in post drink worldwide, we see what happens.

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<v Speaker 1>And what about the RFK junior support in some of

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<v Speaker 1>the polling on the Democrat side, what can you tell

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<v Speaker 1>us about what the numbers indicate there?

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<v Speaker 2>You know, RFK Jr. Is an absolutely outstanding, very entertaining character.

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<v Speaker 2>The problem is his position owned vaccines, and his positions

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<v Speaker 2>own so many things that make the medical establishment so

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<v Speaker 2>crazy also make the Democrat establishment so crazy. Is virtually impossible.

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<v Speaker 2>I would say that he can get above maybe twenty

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<v Speaker 2>seven twenty eight with the Democrat primary, because I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>you've probably got ten percent. The Democrats still wear a

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<v Speaker 2>mask every day. So he's just not going to permeate

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<v Speaker 2>with that issue being so salient and so much a

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<v Speaker 2>part of his identity, He's going to hit a hard wall.

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<v Speaker 1>What is in you know, I want to ask you this,

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<v Speaker 1>if you can come back, I have to have a

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<v Speaker 1>word from a sponsor here, But I want you to

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<v Speaker 1>think about this. Robert will come back and have you

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<v Speaker 1>answer it in just a moment. The most interesting poll

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<v Speaker 1>that you've run this year in terms of surprising results

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<v Speaker 1>or you thought important results other than the political stuff

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<v Speaker 1>we've talked about right if there's anything you've run that

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<v Speaker 1>you want to bring to the attention of the people

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<v Speaker 1>listening and watching right now. But first off, Biden administration

0:09:48.737 --> 0:09:51.257
<v Speaker 1>is hell bent on spending money. They don't have you

0:09:51.297 --> 0:09:53.417
<v Speaker 1>see it in this latest attempt to print money to

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<v Speaker 1>pay off college loans without congressional approval. What are the

0:09:56.897 --> 0:09:59.977
<v Speaker 1>unintended consequences of spending like this? The most likely is

0:10:00.017 --> 0:10:03.217
<v Speaker 1>continued inflation and a dollar that's substantially less in our

0:10:03.257 --> 0:10:06.817
<v Speaker 1>near future. For some people, it's time to really think

0:10:06.817 --> 0:10:09.977
<v Speaker 1>about this one. Purchasing and owning gold, it's a curren

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<v Speaker 1>see that increases in value over time. And gold is good,

0:10:14.737 --> 0:10:19.137
<v Speaker 1>it's solid, it's a rare commodity. It has long term value.

0:10:19.337 --> 0:10:21.017
<v Speaker 1>When you purchase gold with some of the money you've

0:10:21.057 --> 0:10:23.017
<v Speaker 1>saved or place in your retirement savings, you're in a

0:10:23.057 --> 0:10:25.737
<v Speaker 1>better financial shape over the long run. It's that simple

0:10:26.017 --> 0:10:28.777
<v Speaker 1>diversify today. Call the Oxford Gold Group. That's who I

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<v Speaker 1>trust with my gold purchases, and I've been building up

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<v Speaker 1>a gold reserve of my own over the years. I

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<v Speaker 1>always go with the Oxford Gold Group. It's the only

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<v Speaker 1>people have ever bought gold from. It's who I use,

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<v Speaker 1>It's who I trust. Eight three three four three zero

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<v Speaker 1>buck that's eight three three four three zero b u

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<v Speaker 1>c k. Or go to Oxford Goldgroup dot com slash

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<v Speaker 1>buck that's Oxford Goldgroup dot com slash b u c k. Okay, Robert,

0:10:56.937 --> 0:10:58.577
<v Speaker 1>just give me, give me an example of something you

0:10:58.697 --> 0:11:01.977
<v Speaker 1>pulled recently that you just thought was just fascinating in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of what you what you found.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, in the wake of the what was happening with

0:11:08.737 --> 0:11:11.697
<v Speaker 2>by the Light and what was happening with Target, we

0:11:11.737 --> 0:11:13.657
<v Speaker 2>went out to the field and just asked people, have

0:11:14.337 --> 0:11:18.097
<v Speaker 2>you ever participated in any type of a boycott? And

0:11:18.097 --> 0:11:20.897
<v Speaker 2>we gave an answer of yes, I've participated in a

0:11:20.897 --> 0:11:24.017
<v Speaker 2>boycott based on a based on a company or organization

0:11:24.137 --> 0:11:27.697
<v Speaker 2>being too conservative, uh to you know, to old fashioned whatever.

0:11:28.017 --> 0:11:32.097
<v Speaker 2>Or I participated in a boycott based on a company

0:11:32.417 --> 0:11:36.337
<v Speaker 2>or organization being too much to the left to progress it,

0:11:37.217 --> 0:11:40.657
<v Speaker 2>and you know, I've seen surves like this before. For

0:11:40.697 --> 0:11:43.537
<v Speaker 2>the first time, the number of people who said they

0:11:43.577 --> 0:11:47.737
<v Speaker 2>participated in a conservative boycott was about ten points higher

0:11:47.777 --> 0:11:52.577
<v Speaker 2>than a progressive boycott. And that is just that's earth shattering.

0:11:52.617 --> 0:11:56.377
<v Speaker 2>That's never happened before. There've never had a time in

0:11:56.417 --> 0:12:00.377
<v Speaker 2>the past where conservatives were letting the strength of you know,

0:12:01.017 --> 0:12:06.097
<v Speaker 2>of their financial power and their consumerism actually affect what

0:12:06.137 --> 0:12:08.817
<v Speaker 2>they spend and what they do. And we're seeing the result.

0:12:08.857 --> 0:12:11.937
<v Speaker 2>We saw how quickly Target started to suffer. We saw

0:12:11.977 --> 0:12:15.057
<v Speaker 2>how we saw what's been happening to bud Light. I mean,

0:12:15.537 --> 0:12:17.817
<v Speaker 2>you can even see a downturn after some of the

0:12:17.897 --> 0:12:19.497
<v Speaker 2>things that were said about Chick fil A. I mean,

0:12:19.537 --> 0:12:22.657
<v Speaker 2>it just it was there. And so that to me

0:12:22.857 --> 0:12:26.977
<v Speaker 2>was very, very shocking. And you know, probably a good

0:12:27.017 --> 0:12:31.577
<v Speaker 2>side that when both sides are activists and companies have

0:12:31.617 --> 0:12:34.217
<v Speaker 2>every reason to just stay out of politics, when only

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<v Speaker 2>one side is going to make a fuss, then it

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<v Speaker 2>makes sense for a business to err on the side

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<v Speaker 2>of doing things that doesn't upset the group that will

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<v Speaker 2>raise raise a fit. So it actually helps to probably

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<v Speaker 2>keep business out of so much of this stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Kahley of the Trafalgar Group appreciate you being with

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<v Speaker 1>us or the Trafalgargroup. Dot org is the website. Go

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<v Speaker 1>check out their latest polls there. I'll be seeing it also,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure on Twitter and other places. Robert, thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>showing your expertise. Good to have you on.

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely I will go watch that video. You got me

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<v Speaker 2>fired up, now go check it out. Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Cheers