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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Everybody, Welcome to the Buck

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Speaker 1: Sexton Show. You know, people talk a lot about what's

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Speaker 1: going on with the presidential election already, the primaries are underway,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have voting in about six months. What does

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Speaker 1: the data tell us and what are we gonna be

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Speaker 1: learning in the weeks and months ahead. Robert Kahaley is

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Speaker 1: with us now. He is the CEO of the Trafalgar Group,

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Speaker 1: polling and marketing group gurus if you will, in the

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Speaker 1: realm of poling marketing. Robert, thanks for joining.

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Speaker 2: Good to be here.

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Speaker 1: So tell me, if you would, what what are we

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Speaker 1: seeing right now that is significant? Other than on the

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Speaker 1: Republican side, Trump has an enormous lead. Is that very

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Speaker 1: different from other periods in the summertime? If we look

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Speaker 1: at previous primaries where somebody was way ahead, and then

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Speaker 1: you know, with this in the context, have we seen

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Speaker 1: anything like this before? How How much is this sort

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Speaker 1: of determinative at this point?

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Speaker 2: One thing I can say for certain is no, we've

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Speaker 2: never seen any of this before. There's not a lot

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Speaker 2: of certainly his business, but that this is unique certainly

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Speaker 2: one of them. Uh yeah, we've seen people have leads

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Speaker 2: not usually this big, not usually over fifty percent on

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Speaker 2: nationwide compared to all the other candidates, So that that's

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Speaker 2: very historic, and that's just not something we're used to.

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Speaker 2: What I think is what we're seeing more. It's more

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Speaker 2: interesting now is kind of the reshuffling in the in

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Speaker 2: the bottom of the pack, you know where for a

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Speaker 2: long time we've had Trump at the top and then

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Speaker 2: Desianus our back and then it's just been kind of

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Speaker 2: a jumble. And what what we've seen recently is the

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Speaker 2: emergence of Vivekraswami and Tim Scott. They seem to be

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Speaker 2: kind of jumping ahead of a lot of the others,

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Speaker 2: and you know, especially some like Haylu started early and

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Speaker 2: kind of taking some of the steam away from them.

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Speaker 1: Do we have some senses to what did the field

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Speaker 1: look like on the Republican side in the summer of

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. I mean, I know, I'm kind of putting

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Speaker 1: you on the spot, but you do polls for a living.

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Speaker 1: How does this look compared.

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Speaker 2: To that by the summer of twenty sixteen from.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Summer of twenty fifteen, go.

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Speaker 2: Ahead, I knew you're gonna make it hard. Yeah, Trump

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Speaker 2: was leading in a plurality in a lot of places,

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Speaker 2: and there was this thought that that can't be real

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Speaker 2: and that it's just a matter of time. So so

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Speaker 2: many of these others just figured, hey, when the others

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Speaker 2: get out, you know, it'll it'll kind of go away.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, he definitely was leading. If you remember, he

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Speaker 2: was center stage on most of the debates that happened

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Speaker 2: in summer of twenty fifteen and the fall of twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 2: He was almost always at the top, usually with a

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Speaker 2: little bit more than the third But that's it. So

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Speaker 2: it wasn't this type of lead and that it wasn't

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Speaker 2: there wasn't such a hard line. And again at that time,

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Speaker 2: some of the most conservative voters were still for Crews

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Speaker 2: because they didn't Trump. They didn't trust Trump to be conservative.

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Speaker 2: And so some of Trump's most ardent supporters now in

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Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, where some of twenty fifteen were some of

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Speaker 2: the people who were most saying, we can't trust them,

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Speaker 2: this guy's not conservative. And in many ways you prove

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Speaker 2: those people wrong.

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Speaker 1: six ' nine. Now have you have you been able

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Speaker 1: to look at polls and run some numbers on DeSantis

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Speaker 1: was doing pretty well in the beginning of this year,

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Speaker 1: right the start of twenty twenty three, he had closed

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Speaker 1: a lot of the gap. And then he announced and

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Speaker 1: then the numbers started going in the in the other direction.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they were going the other direction before then. I'd

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Speaker 1: have to go back and look and check. But are

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Speaker 1: you able to get a sense from from polling as

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Speaker 1: to what happened?

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, the Santis campaign is kind of a

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Speaker 2: lot like that college football team that everybody talks about.

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Speaker 2: Main they had a great recruiting class, they're going to

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Speaker 2: be awesome, and they're you know, pretty ran to the

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Speaker 2: number three in the country of the first and the

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Speaker 2: first game of the season comes in, like whoa, Well,

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Speaker 2: maybe aren't they aren't so good? And what Trump Trump

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Speaker 2: had If Dessantus had gotten in versus Trump right in

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Speaker 2: late January early February, before the indictments and stuff started

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Speaker 2: to happen, this will be a much more competitive race.

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Speaker 2: But once that started to happen, and those people are

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Speaker 2: still kind of up for grabs because there's still question

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Speaker 2: as to whether the Santas was really going to get

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Speaker 2: in and how long it was taken to why it

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Speaker 2: was taking so long. Trump kind of took those people

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Speaker 2: that were in between them that could have gone either way.

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Speaker 2: And the more of the indictments came in, the more

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Speaker 2: Trump was center stage. I mean, publicity is like it's

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Speaker 2: to Trump like oxygen to a fire. The more publicity

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Speaker 2: he gets, the stronger he gets. And it doesn't matter

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Speaker 2: whether it's you know, essentially being in an oj oj

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Speaker 2: style covered car ride to turn himself in or whatever,

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Speaker 2: it is that publicity help him. And that more than anything,

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Speaker 2: more than any misstep on DeSantis's part or his campaigns,

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Speaker 2: it was the publicity for Trump that gave Trump this advantage.

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Speaker 1: Now what are we seeing at this point? What are

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Speaker 1: you seeing in terms of the polls when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the critical swing states in a matchup between Trump

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Speaker 1: and Biden.

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Speaker 2: Well, we've we've looked, we've looked at quite a few

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Speaker 2: of these and we and we've looked at Biden versus Trump,

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Speaker 2: and we've looked at at de Santis versus Trump, and

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Speaker 2: what we have found is that media has done such

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Speaker 2: a good job of demonizing DeSantis that there is no

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Speaker 2: appreciable difference, and in most cases, Trump has a slight edge.

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Speaker 2: What we do find in these swing states for the

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Speaker 2: most part, whereas abortion was it was a big issue

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Speaker 2: that kind of pushed its way into twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: and most of the states it's kind of settled. And

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Speaker 2: the situation where if you really want abortion to be

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Speaker 2: legal in your state, it is, and if you really

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Speaker 2: wanted some more restrictions, they got passed. And so this idea,

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Speaker 2: the fear of what would happen and the result of

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Speaker 2: getting rid of Row versus Wade, has now been overcome

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Speaker 2: by the reality that it didn't change your life very much,

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Speaker 2: depending upon which state you lived in. So you take

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Speaker 2: that kind of big, big draw off the table, and

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Speaker 2: then then we moved back to you know, kitchen table issues.

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Speaker 2: Biden is dismal. We look at national security. People are afraid,

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Speaker 2: they're afraid of China and Russia getting together, and Trump

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Speaker 2: or Desantus has a little bit of an edge there,

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Speaker 2: and then you you have this this dynamic of people

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Speaker 2: that look at what's been happening and and they see

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Speaker 2: that when they're when they're really scared, and that we

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Speaker 2: asked them the question of do you think Ukraine would

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Speaker 2: have been invaded by Russia if Trump was still president

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Speaker 2: and in every swing state the answera is no. So

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Speaker 2: this is idea that you know he you might not

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Speaker 2: like a lot about him, but there's no question he's

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Speaker 2: a strong leader. And right now, you know there's a vacuum,

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Speaker 2: and when there's a vacuum for power and America doesn't

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Speaker 2: post in post drink worldwide, we see what happens.

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Speaker 1: And what about the RFK junior support in some of

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Speaker 1: the polling on the Democrat side, what can you tell

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Speaker 1: us about what the numbers indicate there?

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Speaker 2: You know, RFK Jr. Is an absolutely outstanding, very entertaining character.

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Speaker 2: The problem is his position owned vaccines, and his positions

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Speaker 2: own so many things that make the medical establishment so

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Speaker 2: crazy also make the Democrat establishment so crazy. Is virtually impossible.

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Speaker 2: I would say that he can get above maybe twenty

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Speaker 2: seven twenty eight with the Democrat primary, because I mean,

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Speaker 2: you've probably got ten percent. The Democrats still wear a

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Speaker 2: mask every day. So he's just not going to permeate

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Speaker 2: with that issue being so salient and so much a

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Speaker 2: part of his identity, He's going to hit a hard wall.

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Speaker 1: What is in you know, I want to ask you this,

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Speaker 1: if you can come back, I have to have a

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Speaker 1: word from a sponsor here, But I want you to

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Speaker 1: think about this. Robert will come back and have you

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Speaker 1: answer it in just a moment. The most interesting poll

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Speaker 1: that you've run this year in terms of surprising results

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Speaker 1: or you thought important results other than the political stuff

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Speaker 1: we've talked about right if there's anything you've run that

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Speaker 1: you want to bring to the attention of the people

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Speaker 1: listening and watching right now. But first off, Biden administration

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Speaker 1: is hell bent on spending money. They don't have you

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Speaker 1: see it in this latest attempt to print money to

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Speaker 1: pay off college loans without congressional approval. What are the

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Speaker 1: unintended consequences of spending like this? The most likely is

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Speaker 1: continued inflation and a dollar that's substantially less in our

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Speaker 1: near future. For some people, it's time to really think

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Speaker 1: about this one. Purchasing and owning gold, it's a curren

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Speaker 1: see that increases in value over time. And gold is good,

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Speaker 1: it's solid, it's a rare commodity. It has long term value.

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Speaker 1: When you purchase gold with some of the money you've

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Speaker 1: saved or place in your retirement savings, you're in a

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Speaker 1: better financial shape over the long run. It's that simple

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Speaker 1: diversify today. Call the Oxford Gold Group. That's who I

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Speaker 1: trust with my gold purchases, and I've been building up

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Speaker 1: a gold reserve of my own over the years. I

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Speaker 1: always go with the Oxford Gold Group. It's the only

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Speaker 1: people have ever bought gold from. It's who I use,

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Speaker 1: It's who I trust. Eight three three four three zero

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Speaker 1: buck that's eight three three four three zero b u

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Speaker 1: c k. Or go to Oxford Goldgroup dot com slash

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Speaker 1: buck that's Oxford Goldgroup dot com slash b u c k. Okay, Robert,

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Speaker 1: just give me, give me an example of something you

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Speaker 1: pulled recently that you just thought was just fascinating in

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Speaker 1: terms of what you what you found.

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Speaker 2: Well, in the wake of the what was happening with

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Speaker 2: by the Light and what was happening with Target, we

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Speaker 2: went out to the field and just asked people, have

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Speaker 2: you ever participated in any type of a boycott? And

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Speaker 2: we gave an answer of yes, I've participated in a

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Speaker 2: boycott based on a based on a company or organization

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Speaker 2: being too conservative, uh to you know, to old fashioned whatever.

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Speaker 2: Or I participated in a boycott based on a company

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Speaker 2: or organization being too much to the left to progress it,

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Speaker 2: and you know, I've seen surves like this before. For

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Speaker 2: the first time, the number of people who said they

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Speaker 2: participated in a conservative boycott was about ten points higher

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Speaker 2: than a progressive boycott. And that is just that's earth shattering.

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Speaker 2: That's never happened before. There've never had a time in

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Speaker 2: the past where conservatives were letting the strength of you know,

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Speaker 2: of their financial power and their consumerism actually affect what

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Speaker 2: they spend and what they do. And we're seeing the result.

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Speaker 2: We saw how quickly Target started to suffer. We saw

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Speaker 2: how we saw what's been happening to bud Light. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you can even see a downturn after some of the

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Speaker 2: things that were said about Chick fil A. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it just it was there. And so that to me

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Speaker 2: was very, very shocking. And you know, probably a good

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Speaker 2: side that when both sides are activists and companies have

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Speaker 2: every reason to just stay out of politics, when only

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Speaker 2: one side is going to make a fuss, then it

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Speaker 2: makes sense for a business to err on the side

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Speaker 2: of doing things that doesn't upset the group that will

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Speaker 2: raise raise a fit. So it actually helps to probably

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Speaker 2: keep business out of so much of this stuff.

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Speaker 1: Robert Kahley of the Trafalgar Group appreciate you being with

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Speaker 1: us or the Trafalgargroup. Dot org is the website. Go

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Speaker 1: check out their latest polls there. I'll be seeing it also,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure on Twitter and other places. Robert, thanks for

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Speaker 1: showing your expertise. Good to have you on.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely I will go watch that video. You got me

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Speaker 2: fired up, now go check it out. Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Cheers