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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you happy? Sunday?

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Speaker 2: Welcome into a new episode of the Daily Juice podcast.

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Speaker 2: My name is Matt Perelt. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 2: across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and

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Speaker 2: we are here every single morning, three and sixty five

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Speaker 2: days a year as we count down to Christmas. I

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Speaker 2: just said something if I could play back, like the

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Speaker 2: outtakes one day, I don't save them, but one day

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Speaker 2: we should just start saving the outtakes, because I just

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Speaker 2: said something to start that was pretty.

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Speaker 1: Pause is the word.

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Speaker 2: We use on my other show, The Bostonian Versus the book,

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Speaker 2: something about the big guy and arriving and using a

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Speaker 2: different word for that. And yeah, I just I said

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Speaker 2: that line on BBB on Friday, and then I said

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Speaker 2: it again here to start the Daily Juice, and I just.

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Speaker 1: Kind of laughed and lost it for a little bit.

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Speaker 2: So well, uh, you know, you can't cry about it,

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Speaker 2: so we might as well laugh about it, because well

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Speaker 2: it was another down one point two one point three day,

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Speaker 2: because a two and three day, uh one in four,

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Speaker 2: two and three, it's the same, you know, to say

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Speaker 2: more one and two, three and four, it's the same.

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Speaker 2: Outcome in terms of being down and unfortunately we are

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Speaker 2: here again.

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Speaker 1: It's the story of the week.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's crazy because I've had weeks where I've

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Speaker 2: had single days where I've lost four units or five

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Speaker 2: units in a single day. This is just like paper

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Speaker 2: cut crap. Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota got hurt. That was

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Speaker 2: a bummer. But the Bears quarterback Jordan Love got hurt,

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Speaker 2: so that washed out Texas A and M couldn't score

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Speaker 2: a touchdown. That was the bet that burned me. Two

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Speaker 2: Lane was the bad bet of the day. Oregon was

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Speaker 2: the easy bet of the day. And the results of

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Speaker 2: the two and three day down one point three units

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Speaker 2: because of Texas A and M and they're losing.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: We will track later once we get to all the

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Speaker 2: future wagers. We will once it gets graded, once there's

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Speaker 2: a champion. We will lose one unit on A and

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Speaker 2: M because I believe in A and M. But we

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Speaker 2: still have Texas Tech, so we still have a angle available.

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Speaker 2: But that if you're a Texas Tech sorry TEXTA A

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Speaker 2: and M fan, everything was right there. You had that

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Speaker 2: that offense at the end of the year, Mike Elkoll,

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Speaker 2: your defense was so good, so good, but your offense

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Speaker 2: and your quarterback just simply could not get it done.

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Speaker 2: Throwing a pick in the end zone with a chance.

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Speaker 2: I mean, run the ball, man, run the ball, run

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Speaker 2: the ball. In it's third down, run the ball. I

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Speaker 2: know there's thirty seconds left. I know you got to

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Speaker 2: worry about having two calls, two play calls, and I

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Speaker 2: get all that, but my goodness.

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Speaker 1: That throw was bad.

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Speaker 2: Good pick by the freshman kid, two interceptions for Miami,

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Speaker 2: but I don't like Miami's chances.

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Speaker 1: I'll just be honest.

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Speaker 2: I think if I'm Ohio State, I'm feeling pretty good

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Speaker 2: about facing Miami and Carson Beck coming up here in

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Speaker 2: a week or so in the quarterfinals of the college

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Speaker 2: football playoffs. But you know, look to two lane and

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Speaker 2: then the back door. That's why I didn't bet JMU

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Speaker 2: that back door typically. I mean, the pros got it.

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Speaker 1: That was big.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that was an insane back door cover game

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Speaker 2: flew over. So we bet the over there team total over.

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Speaker 2: That's why I just bet. You know, Oregon team totally

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Speaker 2: scored fifty one points or whatever they end upon scoring

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Speaker 2: that game, but blowout of JMU. But they you know,

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Speaker 2: Oregon just took the foot off the gas defensively, and

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Speaker 2: jam you just kept trying to score. But Jmu embarrassed.

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Speaker 2: TWU Lane fought hard, embarrassed. Boise last year fought hard, embarrassed.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how going forward we can justify a

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Speaker 2: group of five team being in the playoffs like we've

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Speaker 2: seen it now, Like, I.

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Speaker 1: What are we doing? Like this is not right, This

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Speaker 1: is not sports. Okay.

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Speaker 2: I don't care about lawsuits. I don't care about they

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Speaker 2: deserve it. Give them a chance. Okay, there is no chance.

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Speaker 2: There's just not okay, even with the transfers, there's just

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Speaker 2: no chance. So sorry, like we got to figure out

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Speaker 2: a different way here. Okay, I'm sorry. Group of five,

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Speaker 2: Like once, now that we have a playoff, maybe you

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Speaker 2: go make your own playoff if you're angry about it.

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Speaker 2: But you know, playing in the Big Boy League is

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Speaker 2: no Sorry, it's bad. It's it's really it's embarrassingly bad,

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Speaker 2: to be quite honest.

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Speaker 1: It just doesn't It just doesn't work anyways.

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Speaker 2: Later today New in Eastern Time, it will be Pat

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Speaker 2: Fitzmorris and myself on the Bedding Pros YouTube channel for

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Speaker 2: our live stream four week sixteen of the NFL pat

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Speaker 2: and I did a show on Tuesday. It'll be fun

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Speaker 2: to do a show here on Sunday. As we get

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Speaker 2: role here, three games are already off the board. That

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Speaker 2: means it's a much smaller Sunday slate than normal. But

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Speaker 2: there are some plays and angles that I want to

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Speaker 2: jump in here and make, including a hard rock bet

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Speaker 2: play of the day that we hit last time on

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Speaker 2: Wednesday or Thursday. We hit that, so eight and four

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Speaker 2: for the hard rock bet of the day, so we

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Speaker 2: would do that coming up. So let's begin here with

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Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints, and I think it's interesting to

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Speaker 2: take a look at what's going on here with New

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Speaker 2: Orleans and Tyler Shuck, because this team is a dead

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Speaker 2: under team here at the moment, the total is forty

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 1: It opened up at thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: The first move was to the over, however, that was

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Speaker 2: most likely a headfake. The Saints are ten and four

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Speaker 2: to the under this year. That's tied with the best

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Speaker 2: market in the NFL. The Texans are the other team,

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs as well. The under is cashed in nine

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Speaker 2: of the last ten games for the New Orleans Saints,

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Speaker 2: and since twenty twenty two the Saints. The under is

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Speaker 2: forty one and twenty four. Brady Cook will play quarterback

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Speaker 2: for the New York Jets. And if you're curious about

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Speaker 2: Brady Cook, you should be because he stinks. He's stunk

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Speaker 2: last week, he will stink this week. The Jets fired

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Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator in Steve Wilkes between the last week's

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Speaker 2: game and this week's game because they can't turn the

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Speaker 2: football over. That's good news for Tyler Shuck. That's good

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Speaker 2: news for the Saints defense and maybe the defense for

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Speaker 2: the Jets. A little bit of a dead cat bounce

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Speaker 2: here for the Jets. So I like this with the

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Speaker 2: Jets to play hard on defense and really maybe limit

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Speaker 2: Tyler Shuck even more because this is a guy who

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Speaker 2: has really looked to run the football. Tyler Shuck has

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Speaker 2: the second most rushing yards for a quarterback, just behind

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen over the last three weeks, so he's picking

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Speaker 2: up first downs running the football, and he very well

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Speaker 2: might win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he's played that well here over the last month. The

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Speaker 2: Jets don't force turnovers, just three of them this season,

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Speaker 2: and for that, that's good news for the for the under,

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Speaker 2: in my opinion, were most likely not gonna get a

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Speaker 2: fumber return for a touchdown or a pick return for

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Speaker 2: a touchdown, and that's huge. The Saints beat the Panthers

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Speaker 2: last week, they beat the Bucks two weeks ago. You

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Speaker 2: know they're playing hard. I'm going with the under here.

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Speaker 2: I like the Saints and I like the Saints in

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Speaker 2: a teaser. When I did this show with Pat on Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the line was four, and I bet the Saints minus four.

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Speaker 2: Now they're at six and a half. I can't recommend

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Speaker 2: betting the Saints minus six and a half. I just

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Speaker 2: I can't. But I'm gonna tease it. I'm gonna pull

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Speaker 2: it down from six and a half to a half.

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Speaker 2: So we're gonna go under forty and a half for

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Speaker 2: the game for the Jets and the Saints and the Saints.

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Speaker 2: This is an interesting number in the NFL. Since December,

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Speaker 2: the first seven teams have held their opponents to under

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Speaker 2: two hundred yards passing, which is what the Saints have

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Speaker 2: done over their last four games. Defensively, the next week,

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Speaker 2: those teams that did that are seven and oh straight up,

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Speaker 2: because they're playing great defense. I think the Saints will

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Speaker 2: play great defense here today up against the Jets.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Jets are gonna score.

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Speaker 2: I also don't think that Tyler Shuck's gonna score all

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Speaker 2: that much either. So we're gonna go under forty and

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Speaker 2: a half for the Saints and the Jets, and we're

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Speaker 2: gonna take the Saints, tease it down to half a

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Speaker 2: point and go with the other side with the Carolina

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Speaker 2: Panthers going from plus three as home dogs to plus nine.

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Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield is five and oh straight up against Carolina

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Speaker 2: five and oh.

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Speaker 1: He has played all every team in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Baker has played the only team he is three to

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Speaker 2: oh or better against the Carolina Panthers. This is the

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Speaker 2: team he does not lose to. I'm not sure he's

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Speaker 2: gonna lose to this team. However, Tampa six game ats

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Speaker 2: losing streak. They haven't lost seven games in a row

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Speaker 2: since eighty two eighty three, where they lost eight games

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Speaker 2: in a row against the spread. The Panthers as dogs

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Speaker 2: this year are seven and five straight up. When they

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Speaker 2: are favored, they are zero and two. They do not

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Speaker 2: win when they are favored, but when they are not

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Speaker 2: favored and their dogs they're dangerous and when they're at home,

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Speaker 2: this is a team that's done some damage at home.

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Speaker 2: I'm not so sure the Bucks win this game. Even

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Speaker 2: though I need the Bucks to win this game, I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure sure that's gonna happen. The Bucks under Todd

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Speaker 2: Bowls off of a night game are eleven and five

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Speaker 2: straight up and ten and six against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Okay, great, but at night. This is not night game.

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Speaker 2: But last week at night they are now two to

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Speaker 2: ten straight up after losing to the Falcons. Baker is

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Speaker 2: not healthy, the team is not healthy. I want them

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Speaker 2: to win this game. I'm just not sure they're going to.

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Speaker 2: I think the Panthers my win the game outright, but

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Speaker 2: I think it's a good teaser option. We're gonna go

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Speaker 2: ahead and take it with a low total for the

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Speaker 2: Saints and the Jets and a low total for the

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Speaker 2: Bucks and the Panthers. Giving nine points to the Panthers

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Speaker 2: and teasing it down to a half a point to

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Speaker 2: the Saints. I think is good use of the numbers,

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Speaker 2: and to pay the extra juice to do that. Teaser

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Speaker 2: for the week is gonna be Saints Panthers at minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty five. Let's go to the two plays that

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Speaker 2: you guys probably aren't gonna be jumping up and down about.

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Speaker 2: But let's start with the Jaguars on the road against

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Speaker 2: the Denver Broncos. I know a lot of people like Denver, okay,

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Speaker 2: and I understand it's a really hard place to play. Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's a really difficult, you know, place to go go

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Speaker 2: and win, especially a team from Florida is gonna go

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Speaker 2: two mile high and win or keep it close. The

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Speaker 2: Broncos of one eleven straight, the Jags have won five straight,

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Speaker 2: both straight up and against the spread.

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Speaker 1: By you.

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Speaker 2: By the way, no one's playing better in football right

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Speaker 2: now than the Jacksonville Jaguars. This matchup has only been

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Speaker 2: seen two times since nineteen ninety with teams on this

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Speaker 2: type of losing streak. Teams since nineteen ninety who have

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Speaker 2: won eleven or more games have gone fourteen, thirty six

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Speaker 2: and two against the spread. Now, I'm not saying these

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Speaker 2: trends are automatically blind follows, but I think once the

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Speaker 2: game got over three and got to three and a half,

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Speaker 2: that grabbed my attention and that made me go, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I like the Jacksonville Jaguars here. I like their team

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Speaker 2: total as well. If you want to look at Jaguars

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Speaker 2: different option, look at their team total. Bo Nick's at home,

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Speaker 2: best game as a pro last week. Four touchdown tosses,

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Speaker 2: no picks, three hundred yards, no sacks.

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Speaker 1: He played. Unbelievable. Okay, unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: However, the Jaguars are nineteen and thirteen ATS off a win,

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Speaker 2: and they're ten and four ATS when that win was

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Speaker 2: by more than ten points, which is what they are doing.

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Speaker 1: High total. Good for the Jags.

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Speaker 2: How they play, and the Jaguars defense against the run

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Speaker 2: has been awesome. They're giving up just eighty six yards

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Speaker 2: on the ground per game. That's the best rush defense

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. They're fifth in rush EPA allowed, in

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Speaker 2: second in rush success rate. Look, when you have a defense,

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Speaker 2: it travels. Okay, the Bucks might win this game, but

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Speaker 2: you're giving me the hook. I'm just gonna go ahead

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Speaker 2: and jump on Jags plus three and a half for

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Speaker 2: one point one units, two more plays to go. We're

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Speaker 2: loaded today, hard Rock bet to come. Talk about my Patriots.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be a huge test for the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: They are undefeated on the road. The seven and seven

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Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens are desperate. It correlates with what's going to

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Speaker 2: happen here for the hard rock bet of the day.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens, I think, defensively just are not any good.

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Speaker 2: I think the Patriots are going to move the ball

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Speaker 2: pretty much at will on this defense through the air. Now,

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Speaker 2: it's hard to run on the Ravens, but they give

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Speaker 2: up huge gains, huge plays in the passing game. I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at a bunch of player props for the Patriots receivers.

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Speaker 2: Drake May passing like this is I think where the

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Speaker 2: Patriots throw the football a ton. The pass rush could

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Speaker 2: be a problem, as we know the Ravens like to

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Speaker 2: blitz a lot, but I think the Patriots offensive line

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Speaker 2: should be able to hold up and Drake May should

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Speaker 2: be able to pick up some first downs with his legs.

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Speaker 2: While the running game may not be there, the passing

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Speaker 2: game I think will and that on the other side,

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Speaker 2: with the fact that Mike vrabel is the head coach

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Speaker 2: of the Patriots and Derrick Henry is the running back,

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Speaker 2: I think there's going to be a lot of history

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Speaker 2: and knowledge of Derrick Henry to educate the defense for

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Speaker 2: the Patriots. And it's look, it's one thing to teach

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Speaker 2: the guys to tackle Derrick Henry. Different story to do it.

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Speaker 2: But I like Mike Rabel off losses. I like Mike

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Speaker 2: Vrabel against a player that he knows really, really well,

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Speaker 2: and Mike Vrabel, I think, is able to get his

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Speaker 2: guys refocused. And maybe the Patriots just needed that loss

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Speaker 2: last week. They came out like gangbusters up twenty one

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Speaker 2: nothing and then they blew it. So I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think that that's a huge opportunity. The numbers aren't great

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Speaker 2: if you're a trend better like I am. Patriots ten

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Speaker 2: game winning streak ended last week blowing a twenty one

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Speaker 2: nothing lead. In December or later, after a team breaks

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Speaker 2: a ten game win streak and then they're the dog

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Speaker 2: the next week, those teams are zero and four straight

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Speaker 2: up in ZHO and to four against the spread. Since nineteen ninety,

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Speaker 2: you know that's not great. Underdogs in consecutive games after

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Speaker 2: an eleven and two start to this season, you know,

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Speaker 2: we'll see where we are here in terms of since

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Speaker 2: nineteen ninety, we've only seen two teams to everything be

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Speaker 2: listed as dogs and back to back games when they

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Speaker 2: had a eighty percent win percentage in their fourteenth game

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Speaker 2: or later the twenty twenty four Vikings and the nineteen

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Speaker 2: nine seven Broncos. One lost in the wild card round

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Speaker 2: the Vikings, the other the Broncos won the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: We'll see what Drake may has got here. This is

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Speaker 2: a big show me game for the Patriots. If they

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Speaker 2: can win this game on the road, stay undefeated, bounce back.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna believe in Mike Vrabel. I'm gonna believe in

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Speaker 2: the Ravens defense not being all that great and the

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Speaker 2: fact that the Ravens at home haven't been good. They

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Speaker 2: just haven't been that good. And Mike Vrabel with the

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Speaker 2: Titans or the Patriots has been good at night twelve

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Speaker 2: and nine ats for Mike Vrabel and also having his

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Speaker 2: guys bounce back after losses. He's been really, really good.

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Speaker 2: Twenty four eighteen and three against spread with the Patriots

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Speaker 2: and the Titans following a straight up loss or against

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Speaker 2: the spread loss, I'm taking Patriots plus three and a

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Speaker 2: half for one point one units. That brings us to

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Speaker 2: our hard rock bet of the day. First, let me

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Speaker 2: remind you about our friends at hard Rock Bets. They

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Speaker 2: are the presenting sponsor of the Daily Juice podcast. They

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Speaker 2: page which is up which can really give you a

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Speaker 2: Sometime today and bet on five dollars on any game

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Speaker 2: and if it wins, you'll score one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: bucks in bonus bets plus the winnings that you will

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Speaker 2: get from that bet. Hard Rock Bet has new promos daily,

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Speaker 2: so download the hard Rock Bet app and make your

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Speaker 2: first deposit today. Let's go to the Lions and their

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Speaker 2: game today, laying seven points to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Look,

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Speaker 2: this might push okay, this might be a seven point

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Speaker 2: win for the Lions, but after what the Steelers did

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Speaker 2: last week on Monday Night, they're on the road short week,

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Speaker 2: angry Jared Goff and angry Dan Campbell after their loss.

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Speaker 2: They've been altering win losses, win losses, win losses for

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Speaker 2: pretty much two months now. We know the stat fifteen

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Speaker 2: and oh straight up fourteen and one against the spread

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Speaker 2: after they lose, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. It's just

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Speaker 2: that easy in a lot of ways to bet this.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is good. This game most likely goes over. Mike

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Speaker 2: Tomlin as a six point underdog is six and nineteen

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Speaker 2: straight up three thirteen, eleven and one. Ats as a

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Speaker 2: seven point dog like he is today, three and fifteen

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Speaker 2: straight up, seven to ten and one against the spread.

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers winn he's a seven point dog or more.

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Speaker 2: He's oh, excuse me, oh to six straight up four

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Speaker 2: and two though against the spread. I just think this

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Speaker 2: is a Lions team at home. You can bet the

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Speaker 2: over if you want. The running game might be something

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Speaker 2: to look at for some stats and after what the

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Speaker 2: Lions gave up in the running game, but you know

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Speaker 2: that their defense has been, you know, an issue at

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Speaker 2: times this year.

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Speaker 1: Their secondary has been so banged up.

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Speaker 2: People are throwing on them like crazy, and you might

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Speaker 2: want to think that they'll this do is they're going

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Speaker 2: to be able to move the football coming up here,

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Speaker 2: So maybe the game goes over. Typical game for the Lions.

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Speaker 2: But I'm going to jump in with the Lions. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to lay the seven points hard rock bet of

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Speaker 2: the day Lions minus seven at minus one ten.

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Speaker 1: All right, I'll talk to you guys coming.

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Speaker 2: Up here at Newon Eastern time nine am Pacific time,

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Speaker 2: pet Fitz Morris and I will have you on the

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Speaker 2: Betting Pros YouTube channel for one hour for our live stream,

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Speaker 2: I'll put out more player props and anything else a

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Speaker 2: teaser or to the pops that comes into play, but

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Speaker 2: for official plays for the Daily Juice for Sunday Jaguars

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Speaker 2: plus three, Saints Jets under forty and a half, Saints

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Speaker 2: Panthers teaser Pats plus three and a half on Sunday Night,

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Speaker 2: and the hard rock bet of the day is the

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Speaker 2: Lions minus seven up against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 1: Minus Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 2: You guys can follow Micross all my socials at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice