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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday Week seventeen episode. We'll break down the entire

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Speaker 1: slate of NFL games. We will also discuss our exec

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Speaker 1: decision our Simon says start to narrow down the options

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Speaker 1: for our faves by faves to put into the Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football fickhom contest. We

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Speaker 1: went three and two this past week. We are live

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Speaker 1: from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always

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Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre My BFF

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Speaker 1: Professional Better, Simon Hunter Ello. Soyman, Mary, Mary, Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing, brother?

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Speaker 1: It's a weird days the day before Christmas. We're doing

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Speaker 1: the show early. Obviously it's Christmas Eve, so people aren't

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Speaker 1: going to be around potentially in the afternoon. I feel

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Speaker 1: like my whole day is working at like an hour

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Speaker 1: later then it really should. Right now, I'm feeling like

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Speaker 1: we're working but we're not. But I'm doing everything I

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Speaker 1: do on a workday. You know that feeling.

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Speaker 2: A little bit, but not really just because of what

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Speaker 2: my job is.

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Speaker 3: Like, I've been working since Sunday night to get all

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Speaker 3: this done for listen today, so it's like it's another

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Speaker 3: day of work. But as soon as we get done here,

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of looking forward to like Christmas a little bit.

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Speaker 3: So I'm still not full in Christmas, even getting your present.

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Speaker 3: I forgot to get you a present because I'm so

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Speaker 3: locked in Chad, But yeah, I I honestly, it's it's

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Speaker 3: just another week of work. The weirdest part is just

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Speaker 3: what we're about to talk about, these these Wednesday games,

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Speaker 3: truly is throwing me off, like I can't believe tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's, it's it's And my wife already bought

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Speaker 1: tickets for a movie, and I kind of forgot about

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Speaker 1: the Christmas and now I'm going, she's going, my kid

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Speaker 1: is going. I've got myself wrapped in a pretzel of

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Speaker 1: conflicting emotions right now. So we had the Cowboys on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night to go three and two. Matt Mitchell slacked

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Speaker 1: something brilliant in response, which was it felt like the

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Speaker 1: first normal I put that in quotes home Underdog game

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Speaker 1: in one hundred years like, I agree. It felt like

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Speaker 1: a game that we used to bet automatically last year

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Speaker 1: that we would win automatically. Last year, it never felt

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Speaker 1: like we weren't going to cover. And that was even

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Speaker 1: though like they were without Dak Prescott, without Zach Martin,

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Speaker 1: without DeMarcus Laws, without Trayvon Diggs, without Eric Kendricks. I

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Speaker 1: wasn't doing Gambler's math until like the middle of the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and I was trying to think, Okay, are

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Speaker 1: they going to score fourteen points cover this four and

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Speaker 1: a half point spread? Like my confidence should have been

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Speaker 1: completely unwarranted because they were outgained. They had ten fearer

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Speaker 1: first downs, But sometimes simon, the spot and the number

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Speaker 1: matter more than the players on the field, isn't that right?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: And it was also a game where it felt like

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys were just playing really hard, Like there's sometimes

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Speaker 3: you make bets on teams and you can just tell

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Speaker 3: some guys aren't going one hundred percent. That game like

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Speaker 3: legitimately felt like a team that was playing angry and

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Speaker 3: had something to prove to people on that primetime game,

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Speaker 3: like they're.

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Speaker 2: Hitting hard offensively.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I like you just said I know that

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Speaker 3: Baker and the Bucks outgained their offense, but the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: offense played much better than the Bucks offense.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Cooper Rush had a great game.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, that that was classic thing of that number

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Speaker 3: was never really in doubt, especially towards the end there

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Speaker 3: where just like even if it even was at nine,

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Speaker 3: it was like, okay, even if they scored two touchdowns, here,

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Speaker 3: me and chat are still okay, we'll still cover this number,

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Speaker 3: hopefully because there'll be some wacky field goal in there.

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Speaker 3: But then you know it, dig it a little tight

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Speaker 3: there at the end where we just we've had it

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Speaker 3: before where the team gets a fluke touchdown at the

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Speaker 3: very end and we don't cover them, or but uh yeah,

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Speaker 3: on a week that was once again all about the favorites,

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Speaker 3: our three wins came on three dogs.

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Speaker 1: Amazing, So favorites have gone I want to update this

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Speaker 1: because it's been such a strange year. Favorites have gone

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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy and seventy straight up this year

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Speaker 1: seventy one percent. The most profitable season for straight up

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Speaker 1: favorites since twenty thirteen. It's also the least profitable season

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Speaker 1: for underdogs on the money line since two thousand and five.

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Speaker 1: We're talking almost twenty years. Teams getting more than sixty

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Speaker 1: percent of spread bets have gone fifty six percent against

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Speaker 1: the spread this year. That is a rarity. Here's the

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Speaker 1: biggest one. Home Underdogs are just forty three percent against

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Speaker 1: the spread, which would be the third least profitable season

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Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety. Here's the good news. Here's the good news.

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Speaker 1: There was a little bit of correction in the market.

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Speaker 1: Favorites only went three and four straight up in week sixteen,

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Speaker 1: after seven or zero and week fifteen and fourteen and

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Speaker 1: one between week thirteen and fifteen. Since week five, the

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Speaker 1: favorites win percentage of seventy five percent would be the

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Speaker 1: second best win percentage on the money line from week

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Speaker 1: five on since nineteen ninety in the highest in twenty years.

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Speaker 1: The win percentage for against the spread also the highest

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and five. So I don't know if

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Speaker 1: we reached the peak of the market. That's kind of

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Speaker 1: what I'm hoping, because on Sunday afternoon and evening, underdogs

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Speaker 1: went four and one. The only favorite that won was

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Speaker 1: the Raiders, who started as underdogs, and three of those

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Speaker 1: teams that covered see Miami and Dallas. We're home underdogs.

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Speaker 1: So let's hope we've reached the bottom of this favorite

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Speaker 1: driven market. Let's hope this long national nightmare assignment is

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Speaker 1: over seven underdogs at home. This week we're going to

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Speaker 1: run through it. As a reminder. The Favorite podcast is

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six ' five and now new

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign

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Speaker 1: up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a

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Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply if you are listening to this podcast. This

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Speaker 1: is my be the most important thing we say today.

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Speaker 1: I'm not even kidding, absolutely crucial. Lean in to your phones,

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Speaker 1: your radio dials, whatever it is. If you participate in

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Speaker 1: the Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must

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Speaker 1: be in by one pm on Saturday, not Sunday. Saturday

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Speaker 1: one pm deadline for the Favorites contest picks for all

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Speaker 1: five picks, not Sunday. We're including the Saturday games in

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Speaker 1: the contest this week, but if we do that, you

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Speaker 1: must make your picks by one pm on Saturday. Get

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Speaker 1: those in by Saturday one pm, not Sunday. For week seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Good luck. I'm trying to be very clear, explicit. Get

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Speaker 1: those picks in Saturday one pm. All right. Wednesday, First

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Speaker 1: Christmas game Kansas City at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's a three point

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Speaker 1: dog at home. For two weeks we have bet the

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Speaker 1: Steelers is under dogs classic Tomlin rob Ross spots and loss.

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Speaker 1: He can cover with Doc Hodges at quarterback, but not

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Speaker 1: without George Pickens, and we do expect George Pickens to

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Speaker 1: be back. Numbers move from two and a half to

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Speaker 1: three to public move because the public is on the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: but the money is on the Steelers. Simon, you don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily disagree with the pros here.

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Speaker 2: My kids want to have a good Christmas.

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Speaker 3: I do what I don't the Pittsburgh number to me,

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Speaker 3: as it moves enough. That's my issue with the number.

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Speaker 3: Like I think the value is still in the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, there's still a bunch of books out there,

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Speaker 3: especially I don't know about up in Connecticut here in

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Speaker 3: Jersey that have actually gone back to two and a

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Speaker 3: half because of what you just said. The professionals are

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Speaker 3: hitting the three when it gets there on Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, this this to me is a.

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Speaker 3: Game where I wanted to be on Pittsburgh, but the

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Speaker 3: number didn't move enough for me. If this was three

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Speaker 3: and a half, I would honestly be way more tempted

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Speaker 3: to take Pittsburgh just because of that. And what we

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Speaker 3: talk about the time when it's my homes and three

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Speaker 3: or less, you tend to want to back mahomes in

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Speaker 3: this exact spot in this number.

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Speaker 2: So the matchup on.

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Speaker 3: The field, it all feels like it's good for Kansas City,

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Speaker 3: Like the secondary is just so banged up for Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: You know, Joey Porter, I missed this. You know that

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Speaker 3: that's a big deal. We talked last week or I

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Speaker 3: should say yesterday, but the Ravens just as soon as

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Speaker 3: he went out of that game, they kept attacking whoever

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Speaker 3: came in for him. Right that young corner that you know, yeah,

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Speaker 3: played all right, but you could clearly see that he

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Speaker 3: was like a fish out of the water.

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Speaker 2: And I know that.

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Speaker 3: You know, the coaches can try to work with them

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Speaker 3: on what five days before their next game, but it's

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Speaker 3: like not enough time to really get this guy, you know,

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Speaker 3: into this defense, to kind of figure out a game

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Speaker 3: plan to kind of hide him or maybe give him

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Speaker 3: safety help. Whatever they're going to do, I know Andy

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Speaker 3: Reid and patri Mahomes are going to attack that. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: this is a Pittsburgh team that we loved. I think

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Speaker 3: they started the year of five and I was a dog.

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Speaker 3: Like we talked about, we had been betting them, and

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Speaker 3: they've dropped two straight here and this feel like another

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Speaker 3: just bad spot for this team. And we talked coming

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Speaker 3: to the season that this was going to be an

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Speaker 3: insane run for this Pittsburgh team, Like they had eleven

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Speaker 3: days of just pure hell. You know, any team having

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Speaker 3: to face the Eagles Ravens and the Chiefs let alone

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Speaker 3: eleven and eleven days.

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Speaker 2: Just being put in a horrible spot by the NFL.

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Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh was.

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Speaker 3: A type of team that this felt like this season

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Speaker 3: coming in, you know, we all had doubts, we all

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Speaker 3: had questions, and it really came down to the quarterback position,

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Speaker 3: and obviously we were wrong on it. Russell Wilson came

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Speaker 3: in and played amazing, But that feels like to me

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Speaker 3: that it's worn out a little bit these last couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks, Like he's been inconsistent. He's been turning the

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Speaker 3: ball over, not something that he was doing when they

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Speaker 3: were on such a great run. So you know, not

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Speaker 3: that he's turned back into a pumpkin Russell Wilson, but

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Speaker 3: it's also like he was not what we saw in

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Speaker 3: that Cincinnati game. If you go back and watch that

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati tape, that looked like Russell Wilson from twenty thirteen

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Speaker 3: to twenty fourteen, just perfect throws, deep downfield, smart read

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Speaker 3: every time. Now he's spending it's a bunch of real

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Speaker 3: defenses and he's been struggling these last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 3: and I think the same is gonna happen here with Spags,

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Speaker 3: you'd have pickens Is back playing at eighty percent.

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Speaker 2: I know that's upgrade for them.

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Speaker 3: That's that's really helpful, but I don't think it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a difference maker.

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Speaker 2: They need to beat this Chief's team.

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Speaker 3: So if you can get to two and a half,

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Speaker 3: like again, there's plenty of them out there, I'd grab

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Speaker 3: it now on the Sheefs team. I can just see

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Speaker 3: this being three by kickoff.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's such an interesting spot. My Homes twenty

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Speaker 1: six nine and one as a dog or a favorite

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Speaker 1: of three or less. So even if even if you

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Speaker 1: get the three, you're still leaning into the advantage of

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Speaker 1: betting on the Homes. The flip side is that Mike

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Speaker 1: Tomlin is just as good as a dog at home

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Speaker 1: in this spot.

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Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

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Speaker 2: can make what are you guys quit today?

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Speaker 1: To me, that's either like balancing it out and then

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Speaker 1: you're really thinking about who's the better team here, and

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Speaker 1: would you rather bet on Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson?

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Speaker 1: Would you rather bet on Patrick Mahomes who we started

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Speaker 1: to see Hollywood Brown get incorporated into the office we're

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Speaker 1: seeing in the offense. We're seeing them use Xavier Worthy

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Speaker 1: in different spots in different ways, some of the pressure

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Speaker 1: being taken off him because of Hollywood Brown. Like, I

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Speaker 1: think this team is getting better offensively. What's interesting, we've

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Speaker 1: seen the past two weeks that they covered as favorites

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Speaker 1: of more than three, which they never do, and they've

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Speaker 1: done it in really interesting ways. And they've been scoring

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Speaker 1: more points. Especially that Texans game, I thought they were great.

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Speaker 1: So I kind of feel the same way you do.

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Speaker 1: You know the Chiefs this if this game has more

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Speaker 1: points than expected, which I think it's going to go

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Speaker 1: over the forty three, it's trend how at forty three

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Speaker 1: and a half. I like the Chief's ability to execute

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Speaker 1: more than I like the Steelers right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And we talked about how like again we were

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Speaker 3: just a week early on that Chargers Again, we knew

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Speaker 3: that it was gonna go the other way for the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: They had at one point they hadn't cover in seven

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Speaker 3: or eight straight games, which was the longest of Andy

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Speaker 3: Reid's career as a coach, and it was like the

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Speaker 3: bad luck and the little breaks just aren't going their way.

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Speaker 3: Yet they're still winning because there's such a great team

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Speaker 3: with Mahomes and we joked about it. It's like no

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Speaker 3: team in my lifetime, I can tell you I will

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Speaker 3: ever remember it that came off two stage super Bowls,

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Speaker 3: has the one seed as a thirteen to one record

256
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Speaker 3: or fourteen to one now and so many people just

257
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Speaker 3: being like, ah, they're not that good though. It's just

258
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Speaker 3: an insane society we live in right now. So, yeah,

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Speaker 3: the disrespect had gone too far, and you know, the

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Speaker 3: it's not shocking that, like you just said, the professionals

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Speaker 3: are coming out on the Pittsburgh team because of the

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Speaker 3: history and the right. If it's three, I totally got

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Speaker 3: there coming from right, that feels like that's the mark.

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Speaker 3: They don't want to let it get past the three

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Speaker 3: of the professionals. But two and a half, I don't

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Speaker 3: know how you can now take the chiefs of that number.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'm trying to put this into a pretty package

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Speaker 1: to help myself rationalize it. It feels like at two

269
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Speaker 1: and a half you're betting on the player, and at

270
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Speaker 1: three you're betting on the magic and mysticism of the

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Speaker 1: Steelers coach, you know what I mean. Yeah, there's nothing

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Speaker 1: about the Steelers on the field. That makes you feel

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Speaker 1: like they could win that get they could cover that game.

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Speaker 1: It's only about Tomlin putting his team in the position

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Speaker 1: to do it. That's a lot to bank on Mike

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Speaker 1: Tomlin when his quarterback isn't as effective as he was

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year. Baltimore at Houston, Houston's a five

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Speaker 1: and a half point dog right now. Massive, massive move

279
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Speaker 1: overnight on this game. Some weird big moves in the

280
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Speaker 1: last twenty four hours on all these games are a

281
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Speaker 1: punch of these games. Baltimore went from four to five

282
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Speaker 1: and a half as a favorite. Seems to be professional money.

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Speaker 1: Sixty four percent of the tickets on the Texans but

284
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Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the money on Baltimore. I got

285
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Speaker 1: a lot of thoughts on this, but what is up

286
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Speaker 1: with that?

287
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Speaker 2: And like.

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Speaker 1: I've been looking for a reason to bet the Texans

289
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Speaker 1: and I feel like I just got it in the number.

290
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Speaker 2: Yeah, especially because it's a short week.

291
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Speaker 3: We know historical Lamar is not done great on short weeks,

292
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Speaker 3: especially on the road. And the movement to me, Chad

293
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Speaker 3: is just protecting against the number, right. It's I think

294
00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,080
Speaker 3: the books realize that they might not attack their in

295
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Speaker 3: enough of the Tank Dell injury to that Houston offense

296
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Speaker 3: and how important he's been to CJ.

297
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Speaker 2: And like not not.

298
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Speaker 3: Only is his best friend, but it's a guy that

299
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Speaker 3: he looks for in big spots because Nico Collins has

300
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Speaker 3: become the guy that just gets the doubles, like he's

301
00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,480
Speaker 3: always getting the double teams downfield now, and that clears

302
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Speaker 3: out a lot of what Tank dels to do. But

303
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Speaker 3: I'm with you, like I I already liked Houston in

304
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Speaker 3: this spot. Like again, it was a short week. You

305
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Speaker 3: want to fail them more in a short week, And

306
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Speaker 3: I just knew the public was going to come in

307
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Speaker 3: so heavy on the Ravens after that. I mean, just

308
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Speaker 3: a dominant win against the Pittsburgh team that he struggled

309
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Speaker 3: against in his career. You know, on the flip side, Houston,

310
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Speaker 3: like you just said, they got rolled a little bit

311
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Speaker 3: against the Chiefs, but you know that's a little bit

312
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Speaker 3: of the Chief's luck and magic, right the Chiefs, Mahomes

313
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Speaker 3: got basically strip sacked Houston walked in for a touchdown. Instead,

314
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Speaker 3: they said it was a forward pass as Arbum was

315
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Speaker 3: moving forward and they gave Mahomes fifteen yards and Mahomes.

316
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Speaker 3: Just as soon as you gave him that little bit

317
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Speaker 3: of a lifeline, he drove the field and score a touchdown,

318
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Speaker 3: just basically put the game away. So this is a

319
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Speaker 3: Houston team that you know, I get the doubt, like

320
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Speaker 3: I am having doubt myself because of their injuries chat

321
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Speaker 3: And that's why it's like, I'm not rushing about this.

322
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Speaker 3: Obviously I like it at five and a half, But

323
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Speaker 3: why does this not get the six six and a

324
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Speaker 3: half by kickoff? Like we already know everyone in the

325
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 3: world is going to come in, especially if the Chiefs

326
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Speaker 3: still under two and a half.

327
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Speaker 2: People don't care about want teasers.

328
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Speaker 3: They're going to tease through zero, get the Chiefs up

329
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Speaker 3: to three and a half half, and then take this

330
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Speaker 3: Ravens team down to a pick Like that, to me

331
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Speaker 3: is going to be the Sunday move for most public betters,

332
00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,120
Speaker 3: which I don't think is a bad decision, Like, yeah, Evan,

333
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,520
Speaker 3: tell us you want to bet these favorites in these

334
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:13,920
Speaker 3: kind of type of really short week spots, especially ones

335
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,439
Speaker 3: that you know all these teams are going through the

336
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 3: same thing. Well, you know, three games in eleven days,

337
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,159
Speaker 3: Like that's that's a big deal. It's tends to favorite

338
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,480
Speaker 3: the better teams and these matchups, and you know, we

339
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,800
Speaker 3: can both agree the Ravens are clearly a better team

340
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 3: than Houston right now because of health and the injuries

341
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:30,400
Speaker 3: that Houston's have had.

342
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Speaker 2: So I'm on Houston with you. I'm in no rush.

343
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 2: I'll wait for the six.

344
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 3: If you didn't listen to our show convinced me, I'll

345
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 3: give it out even I should go make a click

346
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,080
Speaker 3: on the link. But I liked Houston first half too,

347
00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:43,240
Speaker 3: because it is three and a half.

348
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 2: C J.

349
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,840
Speaker 3: Straw twelve and three against the spread this season in

350
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,160
Speaker 3: the first half spread, So that's that's a nice little

351
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 3: gift they're given to us, that hook, because most books

352
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 3: are still sitting on two and a half and just

353
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,960
Speaker 3: getting tons of first half money on the Ravens. And

354
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,439
Speaker 3: to me, they're overlooking that this is a short week,

355
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 3: they're on the road, this Ravens team, and how dominant

356
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 3: this Houston team has been in the first half.

357
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:12,480
Speaker 1: Wong teasers, you know, for Tracy in Wisconsin, for all

358
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 1: you SmartLess fans, it's basically teasing. You take a two

359
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 1: team teaser and you tease the number. That six point

360
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,920
Speaker 1: teaser threw a key number of three or seven. So

361
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 1: that's what Simon is talking about with the Wong teaser.

362
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 1: Baltimore's pass defense has been improving. They move Kyle Hamilton

363
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 1: from sort of moving him around, keeping him in the box,

364
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 1: basically keeping him in the defensive backfield because their backfield

365
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:47,160
Speaker 1: has had so many problems, whether it was Eddie Jackson

366
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,159
Speaker 1: or Marcus Williams or a lot of signings that haven't

367
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:56,199
Speaker 1: worked out. I think they're finally figuring that out. The

368
00:18:56,240 --> 00:19:00,960
Speaker 1: biggest issues not just tanked Dell the Texans, Mason did

369
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,640
Speaker 1: not practice, Jimmy Ward, who would have replace Jeff Peatrie

370
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 1: in the defensive backfield. Now both of them are out,

371
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 1: their secondary is even thinner. The one thing I keep

372
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 1: coming back to Lamar is a favor of three or

373
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:19,880
Speaker 1: more forty six percent. So we just had the same

374
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 1: thing with the Cowboys, right, A team at home, a favorite,

375
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,919
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries, hot team on the other side,

376
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 1: hot quarterback. We're going to be on the Texans.

377
00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 2: Sur Yeah, it's just all about the number though, right.

378
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 3: I just feel like we don't need a rush to

379
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:40,919
Speaker 3: grab it because while we just not keep going up.

380
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 1: Let's just wait, let's be patient. Seattle of Chicago three

381
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 1: and a half Thursday night game, Bears three and a

382
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 1: half point dogs on the road. I feel like I

383
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,240
Speaker 1: got Seattle in the exact right spot last week against Minnesota,

384
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 1: and I feel like if they were playing anyone else

385
00:19:57,800 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 1: except the Bears and they were three and a half

386
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 1: point favorit it's on the road, I would one fade them.

387
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 1: But the Bears have yet to be able to execute

388
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 1: in the first half since Thomas Brown became the head coach.

389
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 1: I think they'll have a couple of good drives in

390
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,400
Speaker 1: the second half. They're going to give Better's hope. Inevitably,

391
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 1: they're going to give up a game covering drive to

392
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 1: snuff out any dreams. Do you have any thoughts on

393
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 1: this game?

394
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know you covered Seattle last week, but ninety

395
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 3: percent of betters who just wait till last minute, they

396
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 3: wait till Sunday to bet, they did not.

397
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: I mean that number was to listeners should listen to

398
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 1: the show because we were giving an out at three

399
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:37,920
Speaker 1: and a half on Tuesday.

400
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,919
Speaker 3: We were I'm just saying in general, like, I know

401
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 3: you're count that as a win, but it's it's not.

402
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 2: For the most part. Right, that was a bat of

403
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 2: the books.

404
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: The books thought they had a good a good trap

405
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 3: there for Minnesota and Seattle, and they were looking pretty smart.

406
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 3: Seattle was up four a couple of minutes to go,

407
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,360
Speaker 3: and once again, like this, the insanity that is Sam

408
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 3: Darnold somehow drove the field while getting a shit kicked

409
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 3: out of them and threw just an insane pass for

410
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 3: that comeback touchdown.

411
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 2: So I wanted to be on.

412
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,679
Speaker 3: The Bears, you know, short week, the Seattle team traveling.

413
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,399
Speaker 3: But Chad just said it.

414
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: How does anyone in their right mind back in this

415
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 2: Bears team? What are you backing? Like, what do you I.

416
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 3: Guess you could be like, well, this is a short week,

417
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 3: Seattle's traveling. You know, the Bears have played better at home, YadA, YadA, YadA.

418
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,160
Speaker 3: I don't know what they're looking at here, even even

419
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 3: breaking down the matchups, like this is a good match

420
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 3: up for the Seattle front four against this this this

421
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,880
Speaker 3: Bears front. Like they got injuries to the offensive.

422
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 1: Lineat Braxton Jones done and like they weren't even playing

423
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: that well left tackling. Now the only guy who was

424
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: decent is out. Yeah, that's it.

425
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 3: It's and Caleb, I mean, you know, we joked that

426
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 3: this season we thought he was in set records. He

427
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 3: set the sack record, right, So it's not great for

428
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 3: him either where he already has issues hold on to

429
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 3: the ball too long, and now he's gonna be down

430
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 3: more linemen fit against a D line that can get

431
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 3: after it. And you know this is a number where

432
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,239
Speaker 3: they're trying to suck us in there. They're giving us

433
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 3: the hook on a three and a half and they say, come,

434
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 3: come take this because this is a backdoor opportunity for

435
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 3: the Chicago team. But I don't know, this feels like

436
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 3: the type of game we've seen it, like these last

437
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 3: couple of weeks with the Seattle team that you know

438
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 3: they have not a couple weeks all season. They've struggled

439
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 3: against good teams, but they really do beat up on

440
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 3: bad teams like that is seems like that's their strength

441
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 3: this season. So yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go Chalk's

442
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 3: side the heavy public. So I'll take Seattle minus three

443
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 3: and a half.

444
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: Wow, you'd actually take Seattle for me? It would just

445
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 1: be a pass.

446
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: I mean you can pass it. I would.

447
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,679
Speaker 3: I'm just giving out because I'm already betting it, like

448
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 3: I already bet them first half as well, Seattle minus

449
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 3: two and a half. So I'm just in on this

450
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 3: where I know I'm.

451
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 2: Gonna bet it.

452
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 3: Brother, it's Thursday night, it's a standalone game. I just

453
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 3: I won't be able to help myself. So yeah, I'm

454
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 3: just getting out of it now. I'll be on Seattle obviously.

455
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,640
Speaker 3: I'm like Chad though, like my biggest bet by far

456
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 3: of these three games as Chiefs minus two and a half,

457
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 3: and it's not close, like very very small bets on

458
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 3: Houston and Seattle. Just testing the water, putting my toe in.

459
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 3: I'm all in on the Chiefs. I think that is

460
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 3: a really good number. I'm hitting that one hard, So yeah,

461
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 3: I get your hesitation with this one. It's doesn't feel great,

462
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 3: but it's just all about playing the number.

463
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 1: Contest recap Week sixteen first place winner dry Biz dry

464
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: Biz win five, and Zer got within two of the

465
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,719
Speaker 1: tie breaker. He's taken home one thousand dollars. As always,

466
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has selected the Producer's Cup Award to the

467
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

468
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 2: Have you about the loads and loser?

469
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: He's a Louise about. He still keeps on try.

470
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup going to Jackson West fifty four,

471
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: who went on to five and missed the tiebreaker by

472
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 1: nearly three hundred yards. Nice job, Jackson West. Email our

473
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: producer at podcast at actionnetwork dot com to claim the prize. Reminder,

474
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 1: once again, I don't want to have to say it

475
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 1: again and again and again. I want you guys to listen.

476
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 1: I want you to write it down. I want you

477
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,479
Speaker 1: to be ready. The cutoff to make your picks this

478
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 1: week is Saturday at one pm Eastern, not Sunday. This week,

479
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 1: the Saturday Games are in the contest. Everybody must submit

480
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: their picks by one pm on Saturday. At the very

481
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: top of our leader board, two entries have fifty seven

482
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 1: total points. Ten folks have fifty two or more. It'll

483
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 1: be an absolute dog bite to the finish line and

484
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 1: our forty thousand dollars first place prize. It will be

485
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: crushing if some of these entries do not submit because

486
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: they do not keep up with the podcast and are

487
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: not aware that you have to submit by one pm

488
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: on Saturday. And guess who's not going to be sympathetic

489
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 1: when they get the emails about this. Matt Mitchell You've

490
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,719
Speaker 1: never met anybody who's less sympathetic when people have been

491
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: warned about doing something the right way than Matt Mitchell,

492
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: an absolute officious bastard.

493
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 2: Do you think it would kill you to say good

494
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 2: job Matt?

495
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, this next game, it's I got a

496
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: niche about it. LA Chargers at New England Patriots. Another

497
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 1: big move overnight, this one in the direction of the

498
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: Patriots from five to four. I love the Chargers here.

499
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 1: This doesn't make any sense to me. I love the

500
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 1: Chargers at five, I love them even more at four.

501
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 1: Why is this line moving?

502
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, when it's sticky at lines of the week. I

503
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 3: had this model out at six and a half, so

504
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 3: I'm with you that. I initially was like, oh, this

505
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 3: is a great Chargers spot.

506
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 2: But what is going on here, Chad?

507
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 3: The professionals are taking a stand in start of the

508
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 3: sports books because it's all the money right now. All

509
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: the tickets are on the Chargers, and you just talked

510
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: about it. It's dropped now. Some books have moved to

511
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 3: two points. They've moved it from six all the way

512
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 3: down to four. That's crazy and that's key numbers. It's

513
00:25:58,520 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 3: moving through right now.

514
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 2: So maybe we're missing something we should be on the

515
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: Patriots chat. That's all I'm thinking here.

516
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: It's like the books are trying to tell us here

517
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: that this Charter's team that we all perceive is being

518
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 3: really good, and we talked about it, like we've had

519
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 3: questions about them because of the injuries they've had these

520
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 3: last couple of weeks.

521
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 2: Maybe we're over eight them. What you like, what do

522
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 2: you think that like? That's what the books are telling

523
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 2: us here.

524
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: That the books to me are saying. They're saying Drake

525
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: may is a very accurate passer against a secondary and

526
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: a back seven that may be in trouble and has

527
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 1: been decreasingly effective over the past six, seven, eight weeks.

528
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: But I'm looking at this as overvaluing the Patriots because

529
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: they got out to an early lead and then they

530
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: scored seven garbage points at the end of the game

531
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 1: against a Bills team that played horribly. Justin Herbert to me,

532
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 1: is going to destroy way this secondary, like he is

533
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: so accurate if he is not pressured and the chart

534
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: and the Patriots cannot get pressure. This is a coaching mismatch.

535
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 1: This is a low number. It makes no sense to me.

536
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 1: This is going to be my executive decision. No, yeah,

537
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 1: why why.

538
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 2: Because we don't. We need more time on this one.

539
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 3: Do you know, justin Herbert the Oregon Boys numbers in

540
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 3: the fucking freezing cold. I mean, there's just there's something

541
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 3: going on here, Chad. It's literally just won on Thursday

542
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 3: night and he put up thirty four points against Denver,

543
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 3: like he's coming off arguably his best game of the

544
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 3: year in a primetime game, and the public is absolutely hammered.

545
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 2: Yes, I agree with you.

546
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 3: The books have been terrible this year, like they've hung

547
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 3: some horrible This makes no sense, Like it makes no sense.

548
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: This was one of four games I had pegged as

549
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 1: a an executive decision.

550
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 2: Well, don't do this one. Let me protect you. There's

551
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 2: just something too fishing.

552
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 3: I need time on it because I'm with you, like

553
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 3: my model, I personally liked this spot for basically what

554
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 3: everything you just said, Like New England, how are they

555
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,959
Speaker 3: not inflated coming off that game against the Bills.

556
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 2: But we talked about it that felt like that was

557
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: more about the Bills having that game than it was then.

558
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 3: But no, look, there's just something totally off, effishly about

559
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: this game, and I just maybe again because it's a one.

560
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 2: O'clock game or whatever.

561
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 3: It's going to be one o'clock game East Coast in

562
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 3: the cold. Like I'm just trying to look for narratives

563
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 3: about why they've moved this so much, because, like we

564
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 3: just talked about this, this Patriots team is bad, Like

565
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 3: Herbert should have a day against this team.

566
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: It makes no sense. I'm in no sense. I have

567
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: to choose an executive decision by the end of the show.

568
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: And I appreciate you trying to protect me, and I

569
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: want to honor that because you have more access to

570
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: information than I do in certain areas, and so if

571
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: you're uncomfortable with it, but I went all in because

572
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: you said, what are we missing here? Because you agree

573
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 1: and your number has it, and your number like it's

574
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: not wrong that.

575
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 3: Off it isn't. But I'm just the guys. I know

576
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 3: who we're hitting this Patriots side. I just know that,

577
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 3: like they're not just doing it to do it, like

578
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 3: they're actually they know something that we're missing here. And

579
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 3: I like that's why I want to get more time

580
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 3: to talk to them and throughout why because you know,

581
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 3: not that I don't know why they're doing I kind

582
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 3: of have an idea for it. I'm just very skeptical

583
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 3: where I just know that this is going to be

584
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 3: ninety percent of the bets, ninety percent of tickets, every

585
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 3: every teaser, every part, like all this stuff, all the

586
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 3: Saturday games, we already seen it. All these favorites are

587
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 3: just being met up like crazy right now for this

588
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: Saturday matchup. So it's just if this was a year

589
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 3: of a normal year of us doing well on dogs,

590
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 3: this would have to be a big spot for me

591
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 3: to back the Patriots. Like this lines up in a

592
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 3: lot of ways to like this Patriots team. But just

593
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 3: because the favorites I have done so well, I'm not

594
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 3: throwing it out saying we can't bet this and put

595
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,479
Speaker 3: in our contest. It's just I'm being hesitant right now

596
00:29:58,480 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 3: because it's like this number does.

597
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: Not What do you think the story is? Is it

598
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 1: information or is it something different?

599
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 3: I think it's information, And I also just think that

600
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: it's like there's something we're missing because it just feels

601
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 3: so easy. Like we just talked about this, this is

602
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 3: a legit good team that's charging they're a legit good

603
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 3: playoff team playing against a bad New England team that

604
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: wants to lose, like they don't want to keep winning

605
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: to move their draft stock, and it felt like that

606
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 3: was New England's everything game again, I don't want to

607
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 3: keep wasting more time on this one. But it's like,

608
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 3: I'm just I don't want to make I don't want

609
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 3: to let you make an executive because that I was

610
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 3: kicking myself out letting you make the Bills it last week,

611
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 3: but I was just like, I felt like that was

612
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 3: at a character for us in this show, and I

613
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 3: feel the same here with this one, where it's like

614
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 3: we're always on the other side of this one, but

615
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 3: this year is just we're trying to be more into

616
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 3: favorites and we've just been picking the wrong one.

617
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 2: I feel like this is the wrong favorite.

618
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: To back Listen, you don't let me do anything. I'm

619
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: my own man. I'm a man, I'm a contest.

620
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 2: You're clear your own man. I mean you put him in.

621
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: The Chargers played in New England last year at one

622
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: o'clock game. They won six nothing. But yeah, these favorites

623
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: are fucking us up. And of course last week we

624
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 1: wanted to pick a favorite for the contest. We went

625
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: all in on the Bills because why not go all

626
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 1: in on the best player in football who's having a

627
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: magical year, and the team always blows out in for

628
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 1: your competition at home in bad weather, and of course

629
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 1: against the worst team in the NFL, they can't cover.

630
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: So but everybody else does the Packers do, the Lions do,

631
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: the Bengals do, the Falcons do? We picked the one.

632
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 1: I was watching that Packers game last night and that's

633
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: what I was thinking of, Like, are you fucking kidding me?

634
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: We picked the one massive cover, that massive favorite that

635
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 1: couldn't cover. Simon, here we are as in olden days,

636
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:04,720
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652
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,479
Speaker 1: dressed to my son, delivered to my house. I have

653
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 1: no idea if he bought it on his own. If

654
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: it's a gift for me, I don't want to open it.

655
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: It's for my kid who's in Philly in college. He's

656
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: on his way home. I'm letting it lie, but I'm

657
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: very excited to see what it is. If I bought myself,

658
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 1: Tommy John threw him, or if he bought it for himself,

659
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 1: it's a mystery. Can't wait. I bet Matt Mitchell didn't

660
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: think I was going to sing those first two lines

661
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 1: for that ad. I know he likes to test me

662
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. Denver at Cincinnati. You lean Cincinnati in

663
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: our initial read on Sunday night. It's moving in that direction.

664
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: Some places are three and a half. The game opened

665
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: at three. I'm not sure what's driving this tickets are

666
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. Money is heavy on Denver. This felt

667
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 1: a little trappy to me, like Joe Burrow on a street.

668
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: The Broncos just lost in an ugly way in prime time,

669
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 1: So I'm not loving the Bengals here. Are you still committed?

670
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 1: You pop committed to the Bengals?

671
00:33:58,840 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd still taking it.

672
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 3: And it is all about just the scenario that we

673
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: know that's about to play out here that they need

674
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 3: to win this game Cincinnati Denver does not. Denver can

675
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 3: lose this game and then play against Carson Wentz and

676
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: the Chiefs the following week, the pretty much decide their

677
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 3: playoff fee.

678
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 2: They don't need this game. So that's that's one right

679
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 2: there that jumps out to me.

680
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 3: And the fact that you know, I already have a

681
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 3: little bit of not just reserve about how bo Nicks

682
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 3: is going to do in this exact scenario, but this

683
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 3: just feels like another game.

684
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 2: But just Joe Burrow won't.

685
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 3: Lose, like that he's gonna somehow will his team, and

686
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 3: that you know they'll win out but they're not gonna

687
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 3: make the playoffs regardless, just because what we just talked about,

688
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: like it's lined up perfectly for this Denver team. That

689
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 3: if the Chiefs do win on Pittsburgh, this is a

690
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 3: game that's gonna really decide what I'm gonna do with

691
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 3: this one. Like if they win against Pittsburgh. Not that

692
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna rest players, right, they don't need

693
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: arrest players. Denver is a young team. Everyone's gonna play.

694
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 3: I just don't know if the mental motivation is gonna

695
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 3: be there that I would have been. If the Chiefs

696
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 3: do lose to Pittsburgh and now they know that the

697
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 3: Chiefs are gonna be playing in the final week, that's

698
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: going to kind of change their game plan here. So Cincinnati,

699
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 3: like you're right, Chad, that defense getting three and a

700
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 3: half against anybody that's not the Cleveland Browns can't trust it.

701
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: You cannot trust that Cincinnati team. So that that to

702
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 2: me is the key.

703
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 3: There's it won't be me and you're me in our

704
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 3: contest because we already know we're never gonna get the

705
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 3: two and a half. This is going up to three

706
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 3: and a half, so that means it'll be three and

707
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 3: a half our contest. I'd much rather if I had

708
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 3: to make a play, I'd much rather take Denver at

709
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 3: plus three and a half come Saturday. But as you

710
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 3: sit here right now with no info about what's gonna

711
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 3: happen that Chiefs game, I've just bet the Bengals number

712
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 3: at minus three just because we just talked about the movement.

713
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 2: I thought it was it'd go up on.

714
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 3: The Bengal side because of what we've already talked about

715
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 3: that this Denver team, they just they might not end

716
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 3: up meeting this game and they might just take it

717
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 3: into Week eighteen. But yeah, another line that you know,

718
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 3: you just said the money is coming in heavy on

719
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 3: the Denver side, But it's to me it's going to

720
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 3: be in a huge public play the Cincinnati team comes Saturday.

721
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't make any sense to me, honestly, Like

722
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 1: Denver's pass rush can be just as effective as Cleveland's

723
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: which was in Burrows Grill all day on Sunday, sacked

724
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 1: them four times. Also, it's why he looks so good.

725
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 1: He was scrambling his way into miracles. Like the play

726
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 1: that everyone's talking about where he's throwing it while you know,

727
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: diving that only happens because he literally had to do

728
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 1: pirouettes to get out of a sack and out of

729
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 1: the pocket. Denver is just as effective rushing the passer,

730
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: if not more effective, than Cleveland, and they have better

731
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:45,720
Speaker 1: offensive strategy and better offensive coaching and better offensive players

732
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 1: and a better quarterback. Cleveland like almost covered that game, right,

733
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 1: dtr just happens to be terrible, but they were in

734
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:58,479
Speaker 1: position to cover that game multiple times. So I don't

735
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on Denver recovering. I just have

736
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 1: a stronger opinion that the Bengals are a bit inflated.

737
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's gonna make it because, like

738
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,760
Speaker 1: you said, we got to decide by one o'clock on Saturday,

739
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 1: and we won't know enough about how Denver is going

740
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 1: to be approaching the game based on the Chiefs. I

741
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: like your logic there, all right, Arizona at the Los

742
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams. This is another one that's been moving. We

743
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: flattened it on Sunday night.

744
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 2: It was that was really you.

745
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 3: That was a great call by you said you looked

746
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 3: it at four, then you liked it at five, and

747
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: now it's.

748
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 2: Up to six.

749
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 1: Yeah. I liked it pre show. To be honest, it

750
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 1: moved from I think four and a half to five

751
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: to five and a half by the time we were

752
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 1: off the show. I didn't get it until five and

753
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 1: a half, so you can see that in the app

754
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: it's at six. As my partner in the contest and

755
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 1: on this show. How do you feel about me leaning

756
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 1: into the rams as an executive decision?

757
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 2: I mean, you can do it.

758
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 3: I mean if the number, the number mood have to

759
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:58,800
Speaker 3: scared you off, if you don't think you're getting a

760
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 3: bad number, I don't know.

761
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 1: It's like, it's really why I don't want to do it,

762
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: because I feel like we've lost all the value and

763
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: six is sort of where it's supposed to be. It's

764
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: actually headed a six and a half. Yeah, you look

765
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: at the Jews. So I really wanted to make this

766
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 1: my exec decision. I was hoping it would stay below six.

767
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: I think we might get five and a half in

768
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 1: the contest.

769
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: That'd be nice because I think the movement too.

770
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 3: We talked about like Connor being hurt, that's a big

771
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 3: deal for the Areason team, Like he's been so special

772
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 3: for that offense, you know, as much praise as we

773
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 3: like to get the Kyler and what he's done this season.

774
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 3: Thank you Kyleer for getting us over the win total overall.

775
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 3: He struggled especially against good teams this season.

776
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 2: And you know, as.

777
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 3: Much shock there is about this Rams team getting to

778
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 3: this point, like you know, they had an another year

779
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 3: where they started out the gate really slow, and then

780
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 3: as the year went along, they just got keep getting better.

781
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 3: You can see the Sam scenario here, Like we know

782
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 3: that they basically got away with one these last two games,

783
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 3: like that that game against the forty nine ers that

784
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 3: they got incredibly lucky, and the same thing happened with

785
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 3: the Jets. This this usually is a snare where they

786
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 3: don't get lucky and they just they like legit legitimately

787
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 3: win this game and just beat the hell out of

788
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 3: this Cardinals team, because this is another game where you

789
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 3: know Cardinals guests. Could they come in and play spoiler? Sure,

790
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 3: I just don't know if they had that type of attitude,

791
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 3: Like I don't know about you.

792
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: But like now, I don't think they do. I don't,

793
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: I don't, I don't at all.

794
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: And I just think that Carolina game literally took the

795
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,760
Speaker 3: wind out of their sales, like totally crushed that team.

796
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,399
Speaker 3: I mean you I read a really interesting piece about

797
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 3: just no one spoke the flight home from Carolina, Like

798
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 3: that was the quietest flight and shatter.

799
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 2: I got Chris Long.

800
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 3: He talks all the time about those are the best

801
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 3: moments of your life, flying home a long flight after

802
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 3: a big win and literally the worst thing you can

803
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: experience in your lifetime after a really bad loss, knocked

804
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 3: at the playoffs to a Carolina team that at the

805
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 3: time only had three wins, Like that was brutal for them,

806
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 3: and now they're supposed to bounce back from it on

807
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,959
Speaker 3: a short week against the Rams. I just I can't

808
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: see it. So it's like, I like, I like the Rams.

809
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 3: I'm with you, though. The fear is that you know,

810
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 3: neither of us be shocked if this does laying on

811
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 3: six just because it has moved now from four all

812
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 3: way up. But you know, I still like it, Like

813
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 3: I'm getting sucked in right now. But it's like it's

814
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 3: it's six. I could easily see this gain into seven,

815
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 3: just because the Rams do feel like a better team

816
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 3: and we have a letdown for this Cardinals team.

817
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:32,879
Speaker 1: It's going to six and a half for sure. What's

818
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 1: so funny is you know I make a lot of

819
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: notes in our script before we do the show, as

820
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 1: I do my research on Mondays and Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

821
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:52,720
Speaker 1: You just used two lines that are exact from the script.

822
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,319
Speaker 1: The more I talk to more I researched this game,

823
00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: I still liked it. Right the Rams running against the Cards,

824
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 1: bottom test ten rush defense, bottom three in tackling. And

825
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: you just said something really important that I said as well.

826
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 1: So now we're both saying it. Only you said it first.

827
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: I wrote it first. They got away with one. They

828
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 1: got away with one against the Jets. That was a

829
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: trap game. It's why we like the Jets in that game.

830
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 1: If the Jets were any more competent, they would have

831
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: won that game. Now they come home knowing they cannot

832
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,799
Speaker 1: let off the gas if they want to eliminate any

833
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: playoff drama, if James Connor is injured, if he's not

834
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 1: playing like it just seems like such a good spot

835
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: for this rush game to dominate. And then I noticed

836
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: this action has its own version of Spotify wrapped. You know,

837
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: in the action app, you can go in you look

838
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,760
Speaker 1: at your profile and it gives you your biggest wins

839
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 1: and losses. Most units won are lost on an individual

840
00:41:56,160 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: team for the year. My most units won on an

841
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: individual team, the Los Angeles Rams.

842
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 2: How about that.

843
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 1: How about that I already loved it before I knew

844
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: that I'm going to come back to it. Since you

845
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion about exec decisions, and honestly, I

846
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: like I was so off on the Bills. I would

847
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 1: like some input, as I say, feedback as a gift,

848
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 1: so I might just make my decision at the end.

849
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 1: Maybe we do it together. New York Jets at Buffalo.

850
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 1: I don't want to spend too much time in this.

851
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 1: It opened to ten, it's now at nine and a half.

852
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:32,760
Speaker 1: Maybe this is the week we should have been betting

853
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 1: the Bills this big home face against the division foe.

854
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 3: It could be it's another line that you know asks, Yeah,

855
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 3: I do like the Jets. It just feels like a

856
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 3: huge number that, like we just said, as bad as

857
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 3: they have looked. You know, maybe I'm just a sucker

858
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 3: for Aaron Rodgers, but it's just that's an insane number

859
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 3: for a Bills team that their defense just you know,

860
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 3: have so many reason they just can't get stops like

861
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 3: they made Drake May look like an All Pro for

862
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 3: their first quarter, like every guy who's hitting just felt

863
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 3: like they were wide open when he wanted them to

864
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 3: be so I get it. Chat we've been burned by

865
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 3: the Jets. I don't want to deal with it. I'm

866
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 3: with you. Let's pass on it.

867
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers made a funny joke on McAfee, saying that,

868
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 1: you know, if he gets released by a teenager, it

869
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,840
Speaker 1: would be the first time, and after twenty years, there's

870
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,479
Speaker 1: always room for something new, making a joke about whatdy

871
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: Johnson's kids having an influence on the team and being

872
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 1: the ones who release him after the season Las Vegas

873
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 1: at New Orleans before the Saints game yesterday. There's a

874
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: big pro joe split on this game, with the public

875
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 1: back in the Saints, the pros back and the Raiders.

876
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: You've liked the Raiders in certain spots this year. I

877
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:52,240
Speaker 1: would lean Raiders here just because I think they're slightly better.

878
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 1: But that was before last night, and now I'd kind

879
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: of like to wait to see how the line moves

880
00:43:57,920 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: and if there's any value on the Saints.

881
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was shocked.

882
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 3: I thought we were gonna wake up today and this

883
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,839
Speaker 3: line would be, you know, Saints plus three plus two.

884
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm shocked that it's not like I So I'm

885
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 1: just waiting for the public to weigh in and back

886
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:12,839
Speaker 1: the Raiders, or maybe they just hate the Raiders so much.

887
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 1: Nothing's going to change here.

888
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, but last night was very like every

889
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: everything that could have gone wrong for the Saints did.

890
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 3: Like, I mean, they had two turnovers when they got

891
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 3: the other side of the field towards the Green Bay

892
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 3: and and yeah, like I think they started the game

893
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 3: what down fourteen nothing because it's just basically Lafleur was

894
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 3: going from fourth downs like he just was not playing

895
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 3: with his food in that game. He was basically going

896
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 3: for the knockout punch in that first quarter. So yeah,

897
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 3: it's it's very tempting to take that Raiders team just

898
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 3: because you know, as bad as the Jags have been,

899
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 3: the Raiders looked like a complete team in that game.

900
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 3: Like O'Connell looked comfortable and he was pushing the ball downfield.

901
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 3: And we've talked about these injuries with the Saints, like

902
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 3: they just their whole offense is just gone. Where On

903
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 3: the flip side, this Raiders team, they still have arguably

904
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:05,760
Speaker 3: the best, one of the best tight ends on football

905
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:07,799
Speaker 3: and Rock Bowers and he can make big plays and

906
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 3: big moments for them, and that's been the key for

907
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:12,959
Speaker 3: them these last couple of weeks. This Raiders team, So yeah,

908
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,919
Speaker 3: it's a game I don't mind avoiding. I'm so glad

909
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 3: we're able to bet some of these Saturday games as

910
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 3: well in our contests, because I initially thought, oh my god,

911
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 3: we're either gonna have to have Tennessee or the Saints

912
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 3: in our contest, and hopefully we can avoid both those

913
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 3: teams and then we probably know we should take one

914
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 3: of them. It's it's very tempting, but it's just I'm

915
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 3: not in a rush. Like I just said, this is

916
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,919
Speaker 3: another game. I can see the number flipping just because

917
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 3: the public coming in so heavy on this Raiders team.

918
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 1: Well, the good news is I really love the Titans,

919
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: so we can talk about that, you know, But this

920
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 1: is this does feel like the exact spot to back

921
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: the Saints, right, and I bet every trend when we

922
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 1: look at it on Thursday. I'll leave this in so

923
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:54,919
Speaker 1: we can talk about it on Thursday. Evan will tell us,

924
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 1: probably in his column that comes out this week, that

925
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:00,319
Speaker 1: you back the team that just got blown out out

926
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,720
Speaker 1: in prime time by thirty four points when they're going home.

927
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 1: And so we're if this was another year and we

928
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 1: weren't a little bit gun shy, we'd be hammering the Saints.

929
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 1: We wouldn't even think about it. But at this the

930
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 1: end of the year, we have won fifteen more games

931
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 1: than we have and we want to be so worried

932
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 1: about every single game and playing so tight, right, Indy

933
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 1: at the New York Giants, Giants plus eight to move

934
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: from seven and a half to eight. I know Drew

935
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 1: Locke had an MRI and a shoulder on Monday. Maybe

936
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: too early to know who's playing quarterback. Does it even matter?

937
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: If we were playing a pick every game game, I

938
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: guess I'd go with the Colts, but.

939
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 3: Ugh, same, I go Colts. I don't get why this

940
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 3: line is not ten. This is another bizarre line they've

941
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 3: hung where it's like this Giants team have totally given

942
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 3: up on the season. They're just sitting guys at this

943
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 3: point that like, if you're a little banged up, right,

944
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 3: you're not coming back to play at this point for

945
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 3: the Giants. And yeah, even last week they're in that

946
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 3: game and then it just all fell apart like a

947
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 3: house of cards. And it really comes down to do

948
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 3: you have a quarterback that can make a throw on

949
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 3: third and six? And right now, the Giants do not

950
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 3: seem like to have one. We're on the flip side

951
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 3: as much as we like to shit on Anthony Richardson,

952
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 3: you know, as the season gones along, they've they've figured

953
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,479
Speaker 3: out the perfect medium for him is if he's throwing

954
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 3: the ball one than twenty times, they're probably gonna lose

955
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 3: that game. Like that's They don't want him to be

956
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 3: dropping back throwing it a ton. They want him to

957
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 3: be doing the Reid option, either running it downfield, taking

958
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 3: taking on linebackers, or handed to Jonathan Taylor on these huge,

959
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 3: gaping open holes. Just because these guys are having to

960
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,879
Speaker 3: account for Anthony Richardson, right these linebackers can't just suck

961
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 3: into the middle. They always have to kind of lean

962
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 3: towards the outside because he is happy to pull it

963
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 3: down and take it outside. And if he gets one

964
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 3: on one with a cornerback, he's gonna.

965
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 2: Win that battle. Every time.

966
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 3: He's always gonna be going forward, he's going against the

967
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 3: undersized cornerback.

968
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a cold team that figured it

969
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 2: out too late.

970
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 3: They would have been a really fun run here at

971
00:47:57,920 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 3: the end here, like the challenging Houston that would have

972
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:00,359
Speaker 3: been a.

973
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 2: Really fun race.

974
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 3: But a team that clearly has not given up, they

975
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 3: can still make the playoffs. We expect them to role

976
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 3: here against the Giants, team that just has given up

977
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:08,360
Speaker 3: on the season.

978
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: Do we want to consider the Colts as probably seven

979
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,239
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites in the contest.

980
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 2: I don't hate it. I mean I don't hate it.

981
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 2: Like you just said, if it's Tim.

982
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 3: Boyle, well why wouldn't we?

983
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 2: I mean, what are they what are they going to

984
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 2: do if it's Tim Boyle?

985
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it. Like if we're picking every game,

986
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 1: then that's the side I would be on. Yeah, Carolina

987
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay is an eight point favorite.

988
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 1: This is an interesting number to me. So they played

989
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 1: in week thirteen and Tampa Bay was a six and

990
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 1: a half point favorite. The game went to OT. They

991
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 1: played in Week four thirteen in Carolina, Tampa was a

992
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorite on the road went

993
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 1: to ot. The Bucks only won that game because Truba

994
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 1: Hubbard fumbled in field goal range. So a month later,

995
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 1: the line is in Tampa Bay, the game isn't tap

996
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 1: of data, the line is only eight. So there's two

997
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 1: things here. Some respect being given to the Panthers for

998
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: how they've played, which means that bookmakers' ratings, I don't know,

999
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 1: wise guys ratings on this Panthers team have changed a

1000
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 1: little bit. Also reflects I think the new world order

1001
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:24,439
Speaker 1: of the NFL or home field advantage is not as much.

1002
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: What is your rating on this game?

1003
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 2: This line makes me feel a sucker? Am I sucker?

1004
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 2: For a love and Carolina?

1005
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 1: Here?

1006
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 2: What is this number?

1007
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 1: This was also on my list for executive decision. I

1008
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 1: don't get it.

1009
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 3: I really do not get this one. I know that

1010
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,839
Speaker 3: the Bucks they beat up on bad teams this year,

1011
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 3: and I get that maybe the books are saying we're

1012
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 3: overrating this Carolina team too much, but or maybe I'll

1013
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 3: let down after an overtime win, right, But it's like,

1014
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 3: come on, what is this number?

1015
00:49:59,520 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 2: This is?

1016
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 3: There's way too much respect for a Bucks team and

1017
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 3: too much disrespect for this Panthers team. Like this number

1018
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 3: at six six and a half makes more sense to

1019
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 3: me than the fact that's cross the key number we

1020
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 3: talk all the time of seven, seven and a half

1021
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 3: and eight, Like you're getting this at plus eight right now?

1022
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 1: It makes no sense. So this was also on my

1023
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 1: list for executive decision.

1024
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:23,399
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

1025
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 1: Are you av your honest text acute number?

1026
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 2: Executive decision? Love it like this is a game.

1027
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 3: I threw right away into a teaser, like you can

1028
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,360
Speaker 3: get this up till fourteen right now, which is just

1029
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 3: insane for this Panthers team. But I honestly thought about

1030
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 3: making the Simon says, just because I can't. I cannot

1031
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:43,439
Speaker 3: see this number not coming down like I see.

1032
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 1: I came to my senses. I made it an exec

1033
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 1: decision because I haven't completely abandoned all of our principles,

1034
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 1: you know what I mean?

1035
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1036
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 1: Who did you?

1037
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 3: And we do have to dig down this one because,

1038
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 3: like we saw it last week, I know some groups

1039
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 3: that not that they don't not that they don't think

1040
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 3: this Carolina team is good, but they think they're overrated

1041
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 3: a little bit.

1042
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 2: Like they came in heavy on the Cardinals Sunday morning.

1043
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,400
Speaker 3: We saw that number go from four and a half

1044
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 3: to five to five and a half to a lot

1045
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,879
Speaker 3: of books were at six by kickoff, which blew my mind.

1046
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie me and Chatter are going through

1047
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 3: our picks. I'm like, what are we missing here? Are

1048
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 3: we missing something on this Carolina Arizona game. No, they

1049
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 3: went outright, that was a good read. So another week

1050
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 3: of I guess this Carolina team's just being disrespected and

1051
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:34,160
Speaker 3: the books are just saying, like, you know, not that

1052
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 3: it happened in that Dallas game, but it kind of did. Right,

1053
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 3: Like if bright Shung has a bad game and he's

1054
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 3: uncomfortable the whole game, this Carolina team will never cover

1055
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 3: a win, right, their defense is just so bad. He

1056
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 3: has to be the reason they keep it close. So

1057
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 3: he's been so good to us, Like he's just been

1058
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 3: so good to us covering. Like other than that Dallas game,

1059
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 3: which again me and you avoided. We did not bet

1060
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 3: that game. We stayed away from because we just knew that,

1061
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 3: you know, once they became favorites on Carolina, Like, Okay,

1062
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 3: it's moved too much. This is not that this is

1063
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 3: an eight point dog against a Bucks team that I

1064
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 3: know they're desperate because right now they're not leaving their

1065
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 3: division anymore. But it's like, I just don't think they're

1066
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 3: good enough to be favored by eight points, especially against

1067
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 3: the Carolina team that is very competitive and the first

1068
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 3: time they played should have beat them out right.

1069
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 1: Who did you tease this game with?

1070
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 2: Uh? I did? I did the Ravens.

1071
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: You did the Ravens, so you teased it over I did.

1072
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did through zero, so I have a Ravens

1073
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 2: plus two. But like I just I was just basically just.

1074
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 3: Throw it in there because I was worried this number

1075
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:40,879
Speaker 3: is gonna go it was gonna move too fast. But yeah,

1076
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 3: it's if you're looking for like Saturday teasers. Obviously, you

1077
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 3: know there's plenty of games this week. But like we

1078
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:53,320
Speaker 3: just talked about that Colts game, if I would have

1079
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 3: thought more clearly, I easily would have paired the Colts

1080
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 3: with this right, get the Colts down to two, that

1081
00:52:59,080 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 3: would have been the play.

1082
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 1: I like that too. Making a note, the trend is

1083
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 1: to back the Panthers here. We talked about this last week.

1084
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,080
Speaker 1: But these teams with a winning percentage of between fifty

1085
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:13,439
Speaker 1: and fifty nine percent, so they're good ish, which means

1086
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 1: late in the year they're fighting for a playoff spot.

1087
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,359
Speaker 1: They haven't proven it, they've gotten lucky, they've made some

1088
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 1: good calls. When they're facing a team in week sixteen,

1089
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 1: seventeen or eighteen below five hundred, the good team is

1090
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 1: only thirty eight percent against the spread in the past

1091
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 1: twenty years. Since twenty twenty two, they are ten nineteen

1092
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,760
Speaker 1: and one. This trend was one in one last week.

1093
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 1: Worked with Carolina and Arizona, did not with the Rams

1094
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 1: and Jets, but it totally should have Carolina exec decision.

1095
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 1: Love it, Milman, great call. You never wavered, you didn't

1096
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 1: need any help. You were spot on. But that's how

1097
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 1: we do it. Here in the Favorites, BFF Power Forever. Simon,

1098
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1099
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Speaker 1: name the best ticketing app in the United Sime States?

1100
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1101
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time. I have

1102
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:11,760
Speaker 1: been trying to preach to everybody the importance of experiences

1103
00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:15,359
Speaker 1: over the holidays with your loved ones. Everyone knows how

1104
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 1: much I love the experience of going to a game

1105
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 1: with my kid. It's one of our favorite things to do.

1106
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:24,959
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1109
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:35,759
Speaker 1: Longtime listeners know about my buddy Matt, who lives with

1110
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 1: his family outside San Francisco. This is like my best

1111
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1112
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:44,360
Speaker 1: State in the second half of the Buckeyes trouncing at

1113
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 1: Tennessee in the College Football playof Matt bought tickets to

1114
00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:51,239
Speaker 1: the Ohio State Oregon game at the Rose Bowl for

1115
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:53,440
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1116
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 1: other day he tells me this. I asked him how

1117
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 1: he bought the tickets. He said to me, not even joking,

1118
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 1: He says, I use Game Time. It's easily the best

1119
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:08,440
Speaker 1: experience of any of the apps. Because Matt is like

1120
00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 1: a brother to me. He is like everyone else in

1121
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 1: my family. He does not listen to this show. I

1122
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:18,279
Speaker 1: can promise you when he said that, he was not

1123
00:55:18,400 --> 00:55:23,480
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1124
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1125
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:28,959
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1126
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,120
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1127
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 1: less than thirty five bucks right now. Going to stores.

1128
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:37,720
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00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:54,879
Speaker 1: twenty dollars off. Download game Time today. What time is it?

1135
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 1: Game time? What are we gonna do about this? Tennessee

1136
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:03,440
Speaker 1: game open to two and a half Jacksonville two and

1137
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:06,919
Speaker 1: a half point favorite over the Titans. It's down to one,

1138
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:11,279
Speaker 1: so it's moving in the Titans direction. Like, even when

1139
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this at one, it doesn't make sense.

1140
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 1: The Titans are bad, clearly look horrible against the Cults,

1141
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 1: is why the line was at two and a half.

1142
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 1: But their defense is serviceable. I mean, the Jags are terrible,

1143
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 1: bottom ten or bottom three in every category from the

1144
00:56:25,239 --> 00:56:28,800
Speaker 1: superficial to the advanced mac Jones. Even when Brian Thomas

1145
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 1: Junior is open for a wide open touchdown, he's under

1146
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 1: throwing them. Like, the Jags are such a bad team.

1147
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 1: I want to bet the Titans here. They're now two

1148
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:43,479
Speaker 1: and thirteen against the spread. That is a record. It's

1149
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 1: gotta regress. Walk me off a ledge here? Can we

1150
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:49,399
Speaker 1: not bet the Titans? Make me not do it?

1151
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 3: I would finally after many weeks of fighting, I would

1152
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 3: finally give it him. Bet the Titans here, just because

1153
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 3: the first time they played, they would have rolled if

1154
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 3: Mason Off was their quarterback. That was really all about

1155
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 3: Will Levis is why they lost the first time I played.

1156
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember that game.

1157
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:07,680
Speaker 3: They're basically up six nothing in the entire game, and

1158
00:57:07,719 --> 00:57:10,759
Speaker 3: then the fourth quarter they give up field goal. I

1159
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 3: think Will Loves had a terrible turnover, and they give

1160
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:14,399
Speaker 3: up a touchdown to Mac Jones and to lose ten

1161
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 3: to six.

1162
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 2: So, like we've talked about, this is history.

1163
00:57:19,640 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 3: This team is now are they two and thirteen seven

1164
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 3: or two and twelve against the spread.

1165
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 1: It's like you're not even listening to me. I just

1166
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:27,720
Speaker 1: said it.

1167
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 2: It's like I'm reading my notes. I can't believe it.

1168
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:35,160
Speaker 3: Like even even you're trying to say their defense is

1169
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 3: not that bad after they gave up thirty seven to

1170
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 3: Sinci then thirty eight to the Colts in back to

1171
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 3: back weeks.

1172
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:42,880
Speaker 2: It's probably one of my favorite things on this show.

1173
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 1: It's, oh, God, give me a fucking break.

1174
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 2: Tennessee's defense is not that bad. It's just a whole

1175
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:48,400
Speaker 2: lot of.

1176
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 1: In context, in context, you know, they're like, they're middle

1177
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 1: of the road. They're ranked fifteenth in just about every category.

1178
00:57:58,480 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 1: You know, I did.

1179
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 3: That's just because of the division they play, and they

1180
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 3: have that rank. They're probably a bottom twenty. I mean,

1181
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:07,200
Speaker 3: they are horror Bill. You know, everything just about the

1182
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 3: same team is bad. It's scary because are we bet

1183
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 3: on a team that's simply given up Chad and like

1184
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 3: on the season. I know they had dogging and they

1185
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 3: fought hard last week to come back, but they're just

1186
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 3: such a bad team. But we both know this is

1187
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:22,760
Speaker 3: the spot we have to bet Tennessee. We're supposed to

1188
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 3: bet them here, We're supposed to take the number. Obviously,

1189
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 3: we're pissed we're not getting two and a half, like

1190
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 3: that would have been an auto play in the contest.

1191
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 3: But still is a plus one plus one and a

1192
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 3: half dog. I'll take it. But yeah, it's it's it's bad.

1193
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 1: This is just such a bad team, bad team, bad team.

1194
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 1: You know what we've won in the past betting bad

1195
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:47,360
Speaker 1: teams as dogs. We did it this past week.

1196
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 2: I made a good living betting bad teams.

1197
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, all right, Well it's on the list. Dallas

1198
00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 1: at PHILADELPA it's on the list, and we're gonna get

1199
00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 1: our picks in by one o'clock on Saturday, Dallas at Philadelphia.

1200
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 1: So listen. I want to get your take on this. This,

1201
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:04,040
Speaker 1: This is important, This is why people listen to this show.

1202
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 1: Dallas was at seven and a half on Sunday night

1203
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,919
Speaker 1: and we were betting Dallas. It actually got to eight.

1204
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 1: I bet it at eight. We were betting Dallas as

1205
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 1: a hedge against Jalen Hurts not playing. All of a

1206
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 1: sudden a Monday afternoon, it jumped to ten and a half,

1207
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:25,480
Speaker 1: came back down to nine and a half, and now

1208
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 1: at nine. Dude, what is going on with this line?

1209
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 1: I haven't seen any news about Jalen Hurts, like I

1210
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:35,080
Speaker 1: have been refreshing. I've been trying to see on Twitter

1211
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 1: wherever people are looking. I cannot find any information that

1212
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:41,880
Speaker 1: guarantees or commits or confirms that he's playing.

1213
00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sadly this.

1214
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 3: I don't think we're going to know till Friday or Saturday.

1215
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 3: And the holidays obviously doesn't help because I'm sure we're

1216
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 3: not gonna get any role leaked information on Christmas.

1217
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:57,080
Speaker 1: Arvicefty never rests, that's dude, never rests.

1218
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:00,040
Speaker 3: But like I said to you, clearly someone knows some

1219
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 3: because they've come in so heavy on this Eagles side.

1220
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:06,320
Speaker 3: And at one point, yeah, this number was ten, ten

1221
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:07,920
Speaker 3: and a half at a couple of books, which was

1222
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:12,400
Speaker 3: pretty shocking to see, just because I mean, say what

1223
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 3: you want about the Cowboys, but they played hard last

1224
01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 3: week in Cooper Rush. Since he stepped in, he's looked

1225
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:20,880
Speaker 3: like a good quarterback. Now you gave me some fow

1226
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 3: that I didn't know that he's basically the only team

1227
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 3: he struggles against is this Eagles team. Like in his career,

1228
01:00:26,120 --> 01:00:27,640
Speaker 3: it seems like they're the type of team that's given

1229
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 3: him problems. Now you factor in the fact that the

1230
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 3: Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss and their defense

1231
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 3: really struggled like they're at the end of the day.

1232
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, they had five takeaways, but they're the reason.

1233
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:40,920
Speaker 2: They lost that game. Like it's it.

1234
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:43,240
Speaker 3: I guess Devonte Smith dropping the ball is an ideal,

1235
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 3: but give up that many points to a rookie quarterback,

1236
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:49,560
Speaker 3: especially one that's given a ton of turnovers, it's a

1237
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:51,480
Speaker 3: really bad look. And this is a huge bounced back

1238
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 3: spot for the Eagles. My fear here is just that

1239
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 3: the number is just too inflated for that to happen.

1240
01:00:56,640 --> 01:01:00,800
Speaker 3: Like the opening of the back is always gonna be

1241
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 3: there with Cooper Rush. Yeah, Like this Eagles is not

1242
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 3: a team that just blows teams out.

1243
01:01:04,000 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 2: I know that.

1244
01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 3: You can look at the schedule like, well, they beat

1245
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:08,920
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh by double digits. When you talked Dad nas me

1246
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 3: about that one, it was like Pittsburgh was basical going

1247
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 3: to cover that game no matter what, and then they

1248
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 3: had a really bad Najia Harris fumble that kind of

1249
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 3: flipped that whole game. So you're basically gonna need a

1250
01:01:18,680 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 3: little bit of luck here if you're back in this

1251
01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:20,919
Speaker 3: Eagles team.

1252
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 2: But you know, we both talked about it off air

1253
01:01:23,320 --> 01:01:24,480
Speaker 2: like this does.

1254
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 3: Seem like a bounce back spot where the Eagles just

1255
01:01:26,280 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 3: absolutely crush this Cowboys team. If Jalen hurts his back

1256
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 3: and they use next week as of any bye week, right,

1257
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:33,840
Speaker 3: they need this to lock up the two seed, to

1258
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 3: lock up the division, then they can take Week eighteen

1259
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 3: off everyone that everyone's gonna know that. On the flip side,

1260
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 3: Cowboys had a bunch of injuries in that game against

1261
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 3: the Buccaneers.

1262
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that.

1263
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 3: Felt like such a hard game like that was just

1264
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 3: so such a hard ending game. It's not a short week,

1265
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 3: right because that was something that game. But still they're

1266
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:53,920
Speaker 3: gonna have to travel across country that that to me

1267
01:01:54,040 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 3: is another problematic spot for this Cowboys team. So yeah,

1268
01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,439
Speaker 3: I'm really interested to see what the Hurts news is. Again,

1269
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:02,160
Speaker 3: not rushing to bet it, but this is under ten.

1270
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 2: Chat. Maybe me and you have a conversation. I'll put

1271
01:02:04,120 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 2: egos in our contest.

1272
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:08,640
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's right. I got the I got

1273
01:02:08,640 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 1: the Cowboys at eight, and I'm kind of just hoping

1274
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:13,280
Speaker 1: to buy back on the Eagles. I just want to

1275
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 1: see where we land. To be honest, I'm just making

1276
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 1: a note. I want to wait on Hurts. Okay, Miami

1277
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 1: and Cleveland. We really wanted to love the Dolphins on

1278
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:28,240
Speaker 1: Sunday night when it was six, we hesitated because it

1279
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 1: too is challenges on the road in cold weather. The

1280
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 1: initial move was down to five and a half, but

1281
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 1: then it got bet up to six and a half

1282
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 1: by late Monday. I don't really have a strong opinion here.

1283
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins defense is better than it gets

1284
01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:46,320
Speaker 1: credit for, and it's also possible like they may only

1285
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 1: need a touchdown a score to cover this number against

1286
01:02:51,440 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns offense. But do you have an opinion

1287
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 1: on this?

1288
01:02:57,520 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Browns. Honestly, I would make it,

1289
01:02:59,200 --> 01:03:01,440
Speaker 3: Simon says if I knew who the quarterback was. I

1290
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:03,360
Speaker 3: had no idea who the quarterback is of Cleveland. And

1291
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:06,640
Speaker 3: just like Chad, I'm like trying as best I can

1292
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 3: to for who the hell is gonna be, you know,

1293
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 3: hitting up resources, and none of it's really coming back

1294
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:13,320
Speaker 3: the info I won, Like, I just want to be Jamis,

1295
01:03:13,320 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 3: to be honest, I know that he's he screws in

1296
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:18,480
Speaker 3: a couple of spots this year, but it's like this

1297
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:21,160
Speaker 3: is the perfect Jamis matchup for him.

1298
01:03:21,560 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 1: You know.

1299
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:24,800
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this number though,

1300
01:03:24,800 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 2: but it's six and a half. I'm betting Cleveland. I

1301
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:29,240
Speaker 2: love Cleveland here.

1302
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:30,920
Speaker 3: And it really is all about to do with Miami

1303
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:34,200
Speaker 3: and what we talk all the time chat just they're

1304
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:37,120
Speaker 3: a different team when they leave Miami, like to at home,

1305
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:40,960
Speaker 3: he does what he just did last week, right, He's dynamic.

1306
01:03:41,040 --> 01:03:43,200
Speaker 3: Like offensively, they can move the ball, they can score

1307
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 3: a lot of points. The running game, the past game,

1308
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 3: all of it hits differently at home in that weather.

1309
01:03:49,000 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 2: This is like I.

1310
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 3: Already I already feel I'm gonna wake up to Lake

1311
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:55,240
Speaker 3: effect wind and snow in Cleveland, and then they're gonna

1312
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:57,720
Speaker 3: show to a all wrapped up trying to act like

1313
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:01,840
Speaker 3: he's not freezing cold. And yeah, it's just a bad

1314
01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:03,880
Speaker 3: It feels like a bad spot for Miami, and that

1315
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 3: a great spot for Cleveland. Is still one more win

1316
01:04:06,720 --> 01:04:09,160
Speaker 3: before the end of their season, so yeah, again not

1317
01:04:09,280 --> 01:04:11,160
Speaker 3: making it. Simon says, there's one more game. I really

1318
01:04:11,200 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 3: like more, but plus six and a half. If you

1319
01:04:14,240 --> 01:04:16,120
Speaker 3: like me and you like Cleveland, I'd grabbed that now

1320
01:04:16,160 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 3: before we find out even who the quarterback is for Cleveland.

1321
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:24,000
Speaker 1: By the way, good call the weather on Sunday in Cleveland.

1322
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 1: It's supposed to be pretty warm. It could be in

1323
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:29,800
Speaker 1: the fifties on game time. It's going to be in

1324
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 1: the forties. But it is supposed to be rainy, so

1325
01:04:34,040 --> 01:04:35,560
Speaker 1: it's not going to be very cold, but it will

1326
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 1: be rainy at least as of today. How does that

1327
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 1: make you feel if it's not going to be cold

1328
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:42,200
Speaker 1: but it's rainy.

1329
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 2: It's just something I'll keep my eye on.

1330
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:45,959
Speaker 3: Again, it's not again I'm rushing out the beck because

1331
01:04:45,960 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 3: I have no idea the quarterback is. But that was

1332
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:51,520
Speaker 3: just my first initial thought. It was just like, man,

1333
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:54,000
Speaker 3: I can't believe too is getting minus six and a

1334
01:04:54,040 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 3: half on the road in Cleveland.

1335
01:04:55,760 --> 01:04:59,720
Speaker 1: In late December, green Bay at Minnesota.

1336
01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:02,440
Speaker 2: So I.

1337
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:07,000
Speaker 1: Watched this, I said the other day, We've talked about

1338
01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:08,640
Speaker 1: this on Sunday night, and I was kind of leaning

1339
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 1: green Bay. Yeah, And I was trying to and you

1340
01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,040
Speaker 1: ask me why, and I've been trying to figure out why.

1341
01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:17,440
Speaker 1: And then I watched the Packers last night, and I

1342
01:05:17,480 --> 01:05:19,720
Speaker 1: realize why I like them so much more than Minnesota.

1343
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:22,600
Speaker 1: It's not a coaching edge. I do think I take

1344
01:05:22,680 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 1: Lafloor over O'Connell in an alley brawl, I think, you know,

1345
01:05:27,280 --> 01:05:31,000
Speaker 1: but I think it's about Josh Jacobs first and Jordan

1346
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 1: Love second. I think the Packers' primary strategy is be physical,

1347
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:41,720
Speaker 1: run the ball, don't make mistakes, and Minnesota's truly dynamic

1348
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 1: and explosive. I don't think they have the kind of

1349
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:49,360
Speaker 1: personnel for that offensive game. And I think every week

1350
01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 1: where living on the edge with Sam Darnold and those

1351
01:05:54,760 --> 01:05:59,400
Speaker 1: outs that he's throwing and someone jumping in front of

1352
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 1: those he's got magical receivers who are making great catches

1353
01:06:02,960 --> 01:06:09,920
Speaker 1: deep down the field, like like Green Bay Packers second

1354
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 1: most units won this year, and my action wrapped. I

1355
01:06:15,200 --> 01:06:18,120
Speaker 1: feel like on Sunday you liked Minnesota and we're trying

1356
01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:20,960
Speaker 1: to talk me off green Bay, so I feel like

1357
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:22,280
Speaker 1: you might think differently here.

1358
01:06:23,080 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm still in Minnesota just because of what they've

1359
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 3: done in one score games this year, and this is

1360
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:30,440
Speaker 3: clearly under a field goal. Now it's under one and

1361
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 3: a half, and now it's just minus won a lot

1362
01:06:32,320 --> 01:06:36,080
Speaker 3: of books for Minnesota, and I think it's warranted. Like

1363
01:06:36,120 --> 01:06:38,840
Speaker 3: you just said, green Bay look like the more complete team.

1364
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:40,640
Speaker 3: Even coming to the season, we all thought of them

1365
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:43,120
Speaker 3: as a more complete team. I mean, I can't tell

1366
01:06:43,160 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 3: me how many future bets this Viking team are going

1367
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:47,440
Speaker 3: to ruin if they get the two seater or the

1368
01:06:47,520 --> 01:06:49,160
Speaker 3: one seat in this division, because so many people were

1369
01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:52,600
Speaker 3: either hammering Green Bay or hammering Detroit to win this division.

1370
01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:54,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a.

1371
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:56,440
Speaker 3: Game that's going to decide a lot of money in

1372
01:06:56,480 --> 01:06:59,400
Speaker 3: the future market. And you know, earlier in the year

1373
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:02,840
Speaker 3: we took Green Bay against Minnesota, I believe they were

1374
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:05,520
Speaker 3: minus two and a half or whatever it was at

1375
01:07:05,560 --> 01:07:09,920
Speaker 3: home against his Vikings team, and we basically got got

1376
01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:11,680
Speaker 3: it was Jordan Love came back off his injury. I

1377
01:07:11,680 --> 01:07:13,520
Speaker 3: think he threw two or three picks in the game,

1378
01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:15,680
Speaker 3: just did not look right and that you know, it

1379
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 3: took him a lot to get right. But it also

1380
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:22,240
Speaker 3: speaks to just this team in Minnesota that if it's close, Chad,

1381
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:25,240
Speaker 3: they win. I mean they I've say, lost that Detroit game,

1382
01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:29,200
Speaker 3: you know, thirty one to twenty nine, I believe, which

1383
01:07:29,280 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 3: was a crazy close game, came down the last possession.

1384
01:07:32,720 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 3: We all know the story, and then they got blown

1385
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:36,960
Speaker 3: out by their Rams. They lost thirty to twenty the

1386
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:40,160
Speaker 3: following week. Since then they have not lost, right, So

1387
01:07:40,240 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 3: obviously they're a team that just like the Eagles were

1388
01:07:42,880 --> 01:07:44,920
Speaker 3: due for a loss, just like Detroit was eventually due

1389
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 3: for a loss, Vikings are clearly due for a loss.

1390
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:50,520
Speaker 3: But they've just had this one score magic that it

1391
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 3: just keeps bouncing their way. Like I mean, you know

1392
01:07:54,240 --> 01:07:56,440
Speaker 3: that that Bears game. The Bears probably should have stole

1393
01:07:56,520 --> 01:07:58,200
Speaker 3: that game on one and over time they had the

1394
01:07:58,200 --> 01:08:02,160
Speaker 3: opportunity to do it. You know, Sam Donald drives whatever

1395
01:08:02,200 --> 01:08:05,480
Speaker 3: that was seventy yards downfield from his own like five

1396
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:07,480
Speaker 3: or ten to get them in field goal range, and

1397
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:10,560
Speaker 3: he just time and time again stepped up Arizona another

1398
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,200
Speaker 3: game that should have lost at home, he came back

1399
01:08:13,240 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 3: in that fourth quarter, Sam Donald, and beat Arizona twenty

1400
01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:18,760
Speaker 3: three to twenty two. So that's my hesitation, brother. It's

1401
01:08:18,800 --> 01:08:21,960
Speaker 3: just like, I agree everything you've said, green Bay. I

1402
01:08:22,000 --> 01:08:24,320
Speaker 3: have them grated higher, I have them power rated higher.

1403
01:08:24,360 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 3: I have them as a favorite in this game. So again,

1404
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:29,000
Speaker 3: the number right now is better towards green Bay.

1405
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:30,160
Speaker 2: I just don't think.

1406
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:34,759
Speaker 3: I don't think the computers can comprehend what this Viking

1407
01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:36,439
Speaker 3: team is, which is just a team that if you

1408
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:39,719
Speaker 3: give them the smallest inch of life. If Sam Donald

1409
01:08:39,720 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 3: has the ball now with two minutes to go and

1410
01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:43,559
Speaker 3: he just needs a field goal to take the lead,

1411
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:46,879
Speaker 3: it's crazy to say, but I have to have confidence

1412
01:08:46,880 --> 01:08:48,160
Speaker 3: now that he's gonna do it because he's done it

1413
01:08:48,200 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 3: so many times this season. He just keeps having these

1414
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:53,240
Speaker 3: game winning drives at the end of the game. So yeah,

1415
01:08:53,320 --> 01:08:55,519
Speaker 3: laws of averages, chat and everything you just said is

1416
01:08:55,560 --> 01:08:57,920
Speaker 3: so true about green Bay. But I just can't get there.

1417
01:08:57,920 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 3: I'm just I can't believe I'm saying this. Regular season,

1418
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:03,160
Speaker 3: I'm scared of the Vikings. But yeah, as an Eagles fan,

1419
01:09:03,640 --> 01:09:05,639
Speaker 3: I am praying that I get to play the Minnesota

1420
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:06,679
Speaker 3: Vikings in the playoffs.

1421
01:09:07,920 --> 01:09:10,479
Speaker 1: I am fascinated by our logic here. It feels so

1422
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:16,960
Speaker 1: sort of the antithesis, right, like play the number, play

1423
01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:19,439
Speaker 1: the team that you think is better. This is a

1424
01:09:19,800 --> 01:09:27,080
Speaker 1: counting on something ethereal and unquantifiable over playing the basic

1425
01:09:27,160 --> 01:09:28,400
Speaker 1: math that is in front of us.

1426
01:09:28,720 --> 01:09:30,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely a game. I'm throwing the math other

1427
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:33,360
Speaker 3: on just because it's what the Vikings are doing. Does

1428
01:09:33,479 --> 01:09:36,320
Speaker 3: makes no sense. We've never like we just talked about,

1429
01:09:36,360 --> 01:09:38,080
Speaker 3: like the list he's on with the quarterbacks who have

1430
01:09:38,120 --> 01:09:41,360
Speaker 3: won whatever was thirteen games or first year with their team.

1431
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 3: It's McNair and Peyton Manning, Like these are two Hall

1432
01:09:44,800 --> 01:09:48,519
Speaker 3: of Fame MVP quarterbacks, and now it's Sam Darnold. It's

1433
01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:51,400
Speaker 3: just it's crazy what he's done this season. Him and

1434
01:09:51,479 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 3: Kevin O'Connell.

1435
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:53,960
Speaker 2: It's just an incredible, incredible run they're on.

1436
01:09:54,439 --> 01:09:56,280
Speaker 1: We have to we might have to make Minnesota Green

1437
01:09:56,320 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 1: Bay Scoot Roulette Atlanta at Washington. Washington is now a

1438
01:10:01,000 --> 01:10:03,920
Speaker 1: four point favorite. This one has come down a bit

1439
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:08,240
Speaker 1: since Sunday, I don't actually mind, like I think i'd

1440
01:10:08,280 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 1: want to bet Washington. So I'm glad the numbers coming down.

1441
01:10:12,360 --> 01:10:17,160
Speaker 2: Simon says, take Atlanta Falcons. When Simon says do it,

1442
01:10:17,560 --> 01:10:19,040
Speaker 2: we do what say?

1443
01:10:19,880 --> 01:10:20,200
Speaker 1: Wow?

1444
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:23,400
Speaker 3: The world Yeah, I'm in it broke down. I went

1445
01:10:23,439 --> 01:10:25,240
Speaker 3: back watching the Pennix tape and.

1446
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:28,080
Speaker 1: He was great.

1447
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:33,360
Speaker 3: Yes it is night Day from him Mkirk Cousins. The

1448
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:35,800
Speaker 3: way that offense can run now, the fact that these

1449
01:10:35,840 --> 01:10:38,240
Speaker 3: safeties can't come down, like it's going to open up

1450
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:40,840
Speaker 3: so much for Robinson. And we just saw it.

1451
01:10:40,920 --> 01:10:44,160
Speaker 2: This Washington defense, Chad, they're not that good like.

1452
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:46,960
Speaker 3: They were whatever they did early in the year, the

1453
01:10:46,960 --> 01:10:50,479
Speaker 3: schemes they ran, it's been figured out for the most part, right,

1454
01:10:50,479 --> 01:10:52,800
Speaker 3: we've kind of seen down this tail end here. I

1455
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:55,439
Speaker 3: mean even your guy Killer Williams tore them up for

1456
01:10:55,479 --> 01:10:57,599
Speaker 3: the most part, like he had those two big drives

1457
01:10:57,920 --> 01:10:59,479
Speaker 3: at the end of the game. Because of the games

1458
01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:02,599
Speaker 3: go along, it seems like Washington's defense just isn't as

1459
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:06,080
Speaker 3: good as you know, we all thought they were early

1460
01:11:06,160 --> 01:11:07,639
Speaker 3: in the year, just because during the year they were

1461
01:11:07,680 --> 01:11:09,840
Speaker 3: really good, Like dan Quinn had those guys playing at

1462
01:11:09,840 --> 01:11:13,920
Speaker 3: a really high level. You know, they basically almost just

1463
01:11:13,960 --> 01:11:16,120
Speaker 3: gave up a back door to Spencer Rattler. Like, after

1464
01:11:16,160 --> 01:11:18,920
Speaker 3: watching that Saints game last night, it was like, I

1465
01:11:18,920 --> 01:11:20,480
Speaker 3: can't believe he almost just upset.

1466
01:11:20,240 --> 01:11:21,880
Speaker 2: And beat them.

1467
01:11:22,040 --> 01:11:25,679
Speaker 3: You know, got smoked by Dallas a couple of weeks

1468
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:28,800
Speaker 3: ago in Cooper Rush. It's just I don't think they're

1469
01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:30,639
Speaker 3: a good enough defense to be catching more than three

1470
01:11:30,680 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 3: points against an offense that can't move the ball in

1471
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:35,479
Speaker 3: a team that's leading their division right now in Atlanta. Now,

1472
01:11:36,280 --> 01:11:38,360
Speaker 3: we talked about it Sunday night, Like my hesitation was,

1473
01:11:38,439 --> 01:11:40,559
Speaker 3: this is Michael Pennock's second start. Now he's gonna be

1474
01:11:40,600 --> 01:11:43,040
Speaker 3: on the road in a primetime game. That's a lot

1475
01:11:43,240 --> 01:11:45,439
Speaker 3: to put on a rookie shoulder in this exact spot.

1476
01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:48,280
Speaker 3: But he seems like a cool dude that's like, doesn't

1477
01:11:48,280 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 3: get phased by this. I was watching another interview of him,

1478
01:11:51,240 --> 01:11:54,280
Speaker 3: uh from what he played at Washington, I believe, and

1479
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:56,920
Speaker 3: it was basically him in the college playoffs talking and like,

1480
01:11:57,800 --> 01:11:59,800
Speaker 3: you know, just the fact that they'd never been there before,

1481
01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:01,439
Speaker 3: in the pressures here feeling and it just seems so

1482
01:12:01,479 --> 01:12:03,479
Speaker 3: cool colmic collective, and I was just like, he's got

1483
01:12:03,520 --> 01:12:05,320
Speaker 3: a little bit that Joe Burrow to him that like,

1484
01:12:05,600 --> 01:12:07,320
Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like he's gonna get flustered by this

1485
01:12:07,360 --> 01:12:09,400
Speaker 3: big moment, and that he's ready to meet this moment.

1486
01:12:09,720 --> 01:12:11,679
Speaker 2: And going back and watch.

1487
01:12:11,560 --> 01:12:13,280
Speaker 3: The tape, I couldn't believe how good he was and

1488
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:16,200
Speaker 3: command he was in the pocket. I mean, obviously that

1489
01:12:16,280 --> 01:12:18,439
Speaker 3: one pick Kyle Pitts kind of left him out there

1490
01:12:18,439 --> 01:12:20,360
Speaker 3: to dry. He had like a Kyle pits Ba's got

1491
01:12:20,360 --> 01:12:21,559
Speaker 3: a bad juggle at the.

1492
01:12:24,080 --> 01:12:24,160
Speaker 2: No.

1493
01:12:24,560 --> 01:12:28,160
Speaker 3: Right And you know Pro Football Focus had him graded

1494
01:12:28,200 --> 01:12:30,960
Speaker 3: really high last week after that performance, So it's like

1495
01:12:31,400 --> 01:12:33,800
Speaker 3: the numbers back it up. He backs up the eye test.

1496
01:12:34,520 --> 01:12:37,559
Speaker 3: It's really all about the letdown from this Washington team

1497
01:12:37,560 --> 01:12:42,080
Speaker 3: like that, that win they just had, How do you

1498
01:12:42,080 --> 01:12:44,760
Speaker 3: not come down from it the following week like that?

1499
01:12:44,760 --> 01:12:46,760
Speaker 3: That to me was just so insane, that comeback win

1500
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:49,720
Speaker 3: against the Eagles where they definitely got away with him

1501
01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:52,240
Speaker 3: there and no Wilch. They have won that with five turnovers.

1502
01:12:52,240 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 3: Like the only team that we've done that is Detroit, right.

1503
01:12:55,840 --> 01:12:57,800
Speaker 3: Detroit did that against Houston earlier in the year with

1504
01:12:57,800 --> 01:12:59,960
Speaker 3: a late, late second field goal to steal.

1505
01:13:00,280 --> 01:13:03,160
Speaker 2: So I'm pissed the numbers moved down so much.

1506
01:13:03,160 --> 01:13:04,439
Speaker 3: I was really hoping this four and a half for

1507
01:13:04,520 --> 01:13:06,920
Speaker 3: Simon says, but I still like the four just because

1508
01:13:06,960 --> 01:13:09,360
Speaker 3: I see the same thing last week. I thought Washington

1509
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:11,240
Speaker 3: was going to get down to three against Philly. I

1510
01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:13,040
Speaker 3: think the same thing with Atlanta. I think Atlanta's gonna

1511
01:13:13,040 --> 01:13:15,679
Speaker 3: get down to three three and a half in this matchup.

1512
01:13:15,720 --> 01:13:18,680
Speaker 3: So grab the four while you can't get that key number.

1513
01:13:18,920 --> 01:13:21,720
Speaker 1: You know you call Caleb boydme is my guy and

1514
01:13:22,000 --> 01:13:24,240
Speaker 1: I love him dearly and I want him to be

1515
01:13:24,360 --> 01:13:28,240
Speaker 1: brilliant and I think she will be one day. Michael

1516
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:33,840
Speaker 1: Pennix is also my guy because Michael Pennix was brilliant

1517
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:37,759
Speaker 1: at my alma mater, Indiana University. Yeah, during the COVID

1518
01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:41,680
Speaker 1: years and if not for the injuries, and then I

1519
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:44,599
Speaker 1: became an Avid Avid fan when he was at Washington.

1520
01:13:45,000 --> 01:13:47,360
Speaker 1: I love watching the guy throw, like I you know,

1521
01:13:47,360 --> 01:13:50,679
Speaker 1: I watched a lot of that Atlanta Giants game mainly

1522
01:13:50,720 --> 01:13:53,760
Speaker 1: because I wanted to watch Michael Pennix because I think

1523
01:13:53,800 --> 01:13:57,280
Speaker 1: he's so good throwing the ball. He's so accurate, he's

1524
01:13:57,280 --> 01:14:00,760
Speaker 1: so comfortable, he's so smooth. I agree with your take

1525
01:14:00,840 --> 01:14:04,280
Speaker 1: on his presence, and I do think you look you

1526
01:14:04,320 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 1: play in big games in college, and he's old. He's

1527
01:14:09,360 --> 01:14:12,519
Speaker 1: not a twenty year old kid like Anthony Richardson coming

1528
01:14:12,520 --> 01:14:16,600
Speaker 1: in who's an athletic freak but hasn't had the exposure

1529
01:14:16,640 --> 01:14:20,799
Speaker 1: to high pressure situations. He's played in massive games. Obviously,

1530
01:14:20,840 --> 01:14:23,200
Speaker 1: the NFL prime time, late in the season, playoffs online

1531
01:14:23,280 --> 01:14:27,559
Speaker 1: is different. But when you're twenty two to twenty three

1532
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:31,240
Speaker 1: and you're leading your team to an undefeated season or

1533
01:14:31,320 --> 01:14:33,760
Speaker 1: near undefeated season, and then you're playing in Michigan for

1534
01:14:33,760 --> 01:14:36,920
Speaker 1: a national title or you've got to beat Oregon twice

1535
01:14:37,040 --> 01:14:38,960
Speaker 1: to get into the national title game and get in

1536
01:14:39,000 --> 01:14:43,439
Speaker 1: the playoffs, Like if you're at Indiana and you're playing

1537
01:14:43,439 --> 01:14:48,160
Speaker 1: at Northwestern, that's scary. So I'm kidding about the last

1538
01:14:48,160 --> 01:14:52,439
Speaker 1: one signment. Okay, so he's played in spots and he's

1539
01:14:52,479 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 1: old already. All these guys, they're so freaking old.

1540
01:14:55,240 --> 01:14:57,880
Speaker 3: So, and not to punch down the other sports, but this,

1541
01:14:58,000 --> 01:15:00,840
Speaker 3: this game, to me, sums up why the NFL's king

1542
01:15:01,000 --> 01:15:04,200
Speaker 3: and just the best sport by far that it doesn't

1543
01:15:04,200 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 3: need to do anything to self promote because of this

1544
01:15:06,160 --> 01:15:09,080
Speaker 3: exact game of you have a rookie quarterback and Jane

1545
01:15:09,160 --> 01:15:13,000
Speaker 3: Daniels now, you know, bringing this Washington team back from

1546
01:15:13,000 --> 01:15:15,400
Speaker 3: hell to them thinking they're gonna have fifteen years of

1547
01:15:15,400 --> 01:15:18,040
Speaker 3: greatness playing against an Atlanta team, that same thing. They've

1548
01:15:18,080 --> 01:15:21,400
Speaker 3: been looking for a quarterback for their lifetime. Now these

1549
01:15:21,400 --> 01:15:23,559
Speaker 3: both these guys are on a Sunday night primetime game,

1550
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:26,320
Speaker 3: two rookies, and they're both deciding their playoff fate.

1551
01:15:26,400 --> 01:15:27,559
Speaker 2: It's like the.

1552
01:15:27,640 --> 01:15:30,840
Speaker 3: MLB, the NHL. Yeah, they literally can never even dream

1553
01:15:30,920 --> 01:15:33,120
Speaker 3: up this exact scenario. So it's just to me as

1554
01:15:33,160 --> 01:15:35,280
Speaker 3: a fan of just football, it's like this is the best,

1555
01:15:35,320 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 3: Like these two young guys trying to save these two franchises.

1556
01:15:38,400 --> 01:15:40,800
Speaker 3: I've just been sputtering these last couple of years. I

1557
01:15:40,840 --> 01:15:42,240
Speaker 3: just love this matchup so much.

1558
01:15:43,640 --> 01:15:45,559
Speaker 1: I'm with you, man, you know what You've turned me around.

1559
01:15:45,640 --> 01:15:47,879
Speaker 1: I didn't have a strong opinion. I leaned Washington.

1560
01:15:47,880 --> 01:15:49,719
Speaker 3: I got we were coming from Washington, though, just because

1561
01:15:49,720 --> 01:15:51,799
Speaker 3: it is Pennix on the road as a rookie like this.

1562
01:15:51,720 --> 01:15:56,840
Speaker 1: Is, I'm all in Penix, Penix, Penix, Detroit and San

1563
01:15:56,880 --> 01:16:00,760
Speaker 1: Francisco plus three and a half the Niners in the

1564
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:08,400
Speaker 1: action wrapped my third most units won after the Rams

1565
01:16:08,400 --> 01:16:15,480
Speaker 1: and the Packers Detroit Lions. Most units lost San Francisco

1566
01:16:15,960 --> 01:16:21,479
Speaker 1: forty nine consistently overvalued them this past season and this

1567
01:16:21,560 --> 01:16:23,200
Speaker 1: past year of twenty twenty four.

1568
01:16:23,400 --> 01:16:25,000
Speaker 3: I said that might just been from the playoff run

1569
01:16:25,000 --> 01:16:26,960
Speaker 3: where you just kept backing them and they lost every

1570
01:16:27,000 --> 01:16:29,160
Speaker 3: week and then luckily you got off on the Super Bowl.

1571
01:16:29,160 --> 01:16:32,280
Speaker 1: Though I did. I did. I'm looking for reasons to

1572
01:16:32,320 --> 01:16:38,360
Speaker 1: not date Detroit and I'm not sure I can find any.

1573
01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:44,000
Speaker 3: This is another game that comes down to playoff seating,

1574
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:47,920
Speaker 3: right if Minnesota loses to green Bay, Because remember we

1575
01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 3: were like, what the fuck is this line? I can't

1576
01:16:50,040 --> 01:16:52,360
Speaker 3: believe this line, still can not believe this line. It

1577
01:16:52,439 --> 01:16:56,960
Speaker 3: is bizarre, but this line is still like I don't

1578
01:16:57,000 --> 01:17:00,240
Speaker 3: care if the trade has injuries like this.

1579
01:17:00,120 --> 01:17:02,040
Speaker 2: Forty Nitiers team just can't move the ball and score.

1580
01:17:02,080 --> 01:17:04,080
Speaker 2: They can't finish drives. It's been a probable.

1581
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:07,080
Speaker 1: Well, their offensive line is terrible there, running backs are

1582
01:17:07,120 --> 01:17:09,000
Speaker 1: not very good right now, they're down.

1583
01:17:08,880 --> 01:17:11,240
Speaker 2: Or fourth back. Yeah yeah.

1584
01:17:11,280 --> 01:17:14,479
Speaker 3: So this line to me is just the books hedging

1585
01:17:14,560 --> 01:17:17,560
Speaker 3: that what we just talked about, Minnesota can lose to

1586
01:17:17,680 --> 01:17:19,960
Speaker 3: green Bay and then I think it makes it so

1587
01:17:20,000 --> 01:17:22,680
Speaker 3: that this that game doesn't matter next week because it's

1588
01:17:22,720 --> 01:17:27,719
Speaker 3: just I don't really understand this line at all, Detroit, don't.

1589
01:17:27,960 --> 01:17:30,160
Speaker 3: I mean, if if the Vikings lose and they win

1590
01:17:30,200 --> 01:17:32,479
Speaker 3: this game, Detroit is not does not just lock up

1591
01:17:32,520 --> 01:17:34,439
Speaker 3: them to be the one seed. Again, I don't really

1592
01:17:34,439 --> 01:17:35,960
Speaker 3: know the whole playoff seeding how it works.

1593
01:17:36,040 --> 01:17:40,840
Speaker 1: I think it. I think so. Wait no, because they'd

1594
01:17:40,840 --> 01:17:46,240
Speaker 1: have to win one more game because they've lost two games.

1595
01:17:46,280 --> 01:17:48,559
Speaker 1: The Eagles have lost three games, the Vikings will have

1596
01:17:48,600 --> 01:17:51,639
Speaker 1: lost three games, so they have to win at least

1597
01:17:51,680 --> 01:17:57,360
Speaker 1: one more game to win the tiebreakers against those teams.

1598
01:17:57,360 --> 01:17:58,759
Speaker 1: But then they'd still have to beat Detroit.

1599
01:17:58,800 --> 01:18:00,479
Speaker 2: The only time break of that matters is Vikings.

1600
01:18:00,479 --> 01:18:09,120
Speaker 1: That's if Minnesota loses, then it's done, because Minnesota will

1601
01:18:09,120 --> 01:18:12,360
Speaker 1: have lost four games. They only have lost two games.

1602
01:18:13,000 --> 01:18:16,320
Speaker 1: If they still have to win one more because.

1603
01:18:16,640 --> 01:18:20,919
Speaker 3: Minnesota, Minnesota is only at two losses.

1604
01:18:22,800 --> 01:18:24,040
Speaker 1: Okay, that's what I mean.

1605
01:18:24,200 --> 01:18:26,880
Speaker 3: So, like, I don't know what the books are doing

1606
01:18:26,960 --> 01:18:30,920
Speaker 3: this line. I wanted to put my life savings right

1607
01:18:30,960 --> 01:18:33,000
Speaker 3: now on this Detroit team because that's what it just

1608
01:18:33,040 --> 01:18:35,360
Speaker 3: feels like. They're going to kill this team and destroy them,

1609
01:18:35,360 --> 01:18:38,040
Speaker 3: and it's a bad number. But the books are trying

1610
01:18:38,040 --> 01:18:39,560
Speaker 3: to tell us something here, making this three and a

1611
01:18:39,600 --> 01:18:43,760
Speaker 3: half another primetime game. I don't know if they're just

1612
01:18:43,800 --> 01:18:45,519
Speaker 3: giving away money here, but it feels like that, like

1613
01:18:45,560 --> 01:18:48,720
Speaker 3: this number team should be six. It's three and a

1614
01:18:48,760 --> 01:18:51,080
Speaker 3: half tons of value right now on this Detroit side.

1615
01:18:51,120 --> 01:18:52,920
Speaker 3: But like we just said, I have to look more

1616
01:18:52,920 --> 01:18:55,120
Speaker 3: into the playoff whole scheduling if this game matters to

1617
01:18:55,200 --> 01:18:57,760
Speaker 3: Detroit or if it's just like, well, this game doesn't

1618
01:18:57,800 --> 01:19:00,000
Speaker 3: even matter. We just need to beat Minnesota next week.

1619
01:19:00,080 --> 01:19:02,800
Speaker 3: That's the game that matters. This game is irrelevant whether

1620
01:19:02,920 --> 01:19:06,759
Speaker 3: Minnesota wins or loses. So very interesting that this number

1621
01:19:06,760 --> 01:19:10,639
Speaker 3: is three and a half. Just you know, if if

1622
01:19:11,200 --> 01:19:14,360
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers were semi healthy, I would make

1623
01:19:14,360 --> 01:19:17,320
Speaker 3: this three. And if they had McCaffrey this season and

1624
01:19:18,000 --> 01:19:20,599
Speaker 3: you know, they weren't so terribly banged up, this would

1625
01:19:20,680 --> 01:19:22,840
Speaker 3: make more sense. But this is a team that's had

1626
01:19:22,840 --> 01:19:24,800
Speaker 3: a year from hell. We've talked about this forts team.

1627
01:19:24,800 --> 01:19:28,000
Speaker 3: Everything that's gone wrong has gone wrong, and party's regressed

1628
01:19:28,000 --> 01:19:30,840
Speaker 3: in a bunch of different ways. And you know there's

1629
01:19:30,880 --> 01:19:33,960
Speaker 3: just this even that game against Miami, like they're in

1630
01:19:33,960 --> 01:19:36,320
Speaker 3: that game and they just fall apart in that second half,

1631
01:19:36,320 --> 01:19:39,120
Speaker 3: and that's been their m all season, like them. Giving

1632
01:19:39,200 --> 01:19:42,280
Speaker 3: up that walk off rushing touchdown to Miami has just

1633
01:19:42,320 --> 01:19:44,920
Speaker 3: been what's plagued them all season. They've just been terrible

1634
01:19:44,920 --> 01:19:48,439
Speaker 3: closing games out. So yeah, this this line. I circled

1635
01:19:48,479 --> 01:19:51,000
Speaker 3: this one and I circled that Chargers game of the

1636
01:19:51,000 --> 01:19:52,519
Speaker 3: two fishiest lines of the week.

1637
01:19:54,000 --> 01:19:59,599
Speaker 1: All right, I like that. We're bookending it Chargers and

1638
01:19:59,680 --> 01:20:05,519
Speaker 1: Lion week of fishiness. It's a holiday season. You know

1639
01:20:05,640 --> 01:20:09,080
Speaker 1: what is that? Seven fishes? Is that a big Christmas thing?

1640
01:20:09,560 --> 01:20:11,439
Speaker 2: I'm doing some fish off tonight, going to my Italian

1641
01:20:11,439 --> 01:20:12,200
Speaker 2: cousin's party.

1642
01:20:13,479 --> 01:20:14,519
Speaker 1: What do you think you're going to get?

1643
01:20:15,520 --> 01:20:16,560
Speaker 2: What kind of fish?

1644
01:20:17,000 --> 01:20:18,800
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1645
01:20:18,840 --> 01:20:20,559
Speaker 2: I don't know. I always go for the cod though,

1646
01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:22,920
Speaker 2: I'm a cod guy. Go for cod.

1647
01:20:23,040 --> 01:20:26,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, fantastic. I know it from The Bear. One of

1648
01:20:26,200 --> 01:20:28,200
Speaker 1: the best episodes of The Bear ever is this seven

1649
01:20:28,280 --> 01:20:31,360
Speaker 1: Fishes episode? All right, Well, we got a pretty good

1650
01:20:31,360 --> 01:20:33,679
Speaker 1: list to look at on Thursday. Will be back on Thursday.

1651
01:20:33,680 --> 01:20:35,960
Speaker 1: We want to make sure everyone has a very happy

1652
01:20:36,200 --> 01:20:40,559
Speaker 1: and healthy Christmas. Reminder, if you are participating in the

1653
01:20:40,600 --> 01:20:43,880
Speaker 1: Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must be

1654
01:20:43,960 --> 01:20:48,280
Speaker 1: in by one pm on Saturday, not Sunday. All Saturday

1655
01:20:48,320 --> 01:20:51,800
Speaker 1: games or in the contest. Everybody must make picks by

1656
01:20:51,840 --> 01:20:54,920
Speaker 1: one pm on Saturday, whether you are picking Saturday games

1657
01:20:55,000 --> 01:20:58,720
Speaker 1: or not. The new deadline is Saturday for this week,

1658
01:20:58,760 --> 01:21:00,800
Speaker 1: so we can get the Saturday game and give people

1659
01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:03,920
Speaker 1: more options Saturday one pm. As a reminder, in the

1660
01:21:03,960 --> 01:21:06,800
Speaker 1: Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five and

1661
01:21:06,880 --> 01:21:09,200
Speaker 1: now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred

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1666
01:21:18,800 --> 01:21:21,120
Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

1667
01:21:21,520 --> 01:21:23,920
Speaker 1: Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary at Bet three six five.

1668
01:21:24,120 --> 01:21:27,080
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado,

1669
01:21:27,160 --> 01:21:31,679
Speaker 1: or Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

1670
01:21:31,800 --> 01:21:34,680
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1671
01:21:34,680 --> 01:21:36,720
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

1672
01:21:36,760 --> 01:21:40,360
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply we'll be back. Like I

1673
01:21:40,400 --> 01:21:44,160
Speaker 1: said on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page, eleven

1674
01:21:44,200 --> 01:21:47,800
Speaker 1: am Eastern will narrow it down with our best bets

1675
01:21:47,800 --> 01:21:51,440
Speaker 1: for week seventeen. We'll get more answers on the fishiness

1676
01:21:51,479 --> 01:21:55,240
Speaker 1: of the chargers and the lions, so much more. Download

1677
01:21:55,320 --> 01:21:58,560
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1679
01:22:01,000 --> 01:22:10,080
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1680
01:22:10,160 --> 01:22:14,240
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

1681
01:22:14,320 --> 01:22:17,479
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

1682
01:22:17,520 --> 01:22:19,719
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred gambler