1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: The volume The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by 2 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any 4 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan Fan 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: Duel more ways to win. Hi, everybody, welcome in to 6 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: the volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast off to a great start, 7 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: made some news with the Troy Aikman podcast. Had my 8 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 1: friend Maverick Carter who runs all of Lebronze businesses. So 9 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: my guest today is Chad Millman. He is the chief 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: content officer or the Action Network. So in September of 11 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: twenty thirteen, I started the show called Colins New Football Show. 12 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: We taught college in pro football and my only regular 13 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: guest was Chad and he is now joining us on 14 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: the podcast to day now. It was canceled after two years. 15 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: So Chad, first question, was it all my fault or 16 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: just some of it? I don't think it was primarily 17 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: even your fault. I blame a lack of imagination. I 18 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: blame the basement studio. I blame the viewers. You're not watching, 19 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: you know, they're always a good out. Yeah, it's like 20 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 1: We couldn't have been more perfect. It was the viewers. 21 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: So I lean on you all the time. We talk 22 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: off the air all the time, and so I want 23 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: your at the Action Network. I want your perspective on this. 24 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: So it feels like to me in sports gambling, we're 25 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,559 Speaker 1: in top of the second ending. Ten years from now, 26 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: what's it going to look like in your opinion? Ten 27 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: years from now, we will be five years past nearly 28 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: every single state legalizing sports betting, because right now there's 29 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: more than twenty states that have legalized sports betting. There 30 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: are nine states that have legalized sports betting where you 31 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: can bet online from wherever you are, and that's where 32 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: the money is. That's the gold, right, That's why New 33 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: Jersey had six billion dollars in sports betting handle. That 34 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: means the total amount bet in twenty twenty, which was 35 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: one point five billion more than Nevada, which is a 36 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: mature market that's been around for forty five years. New 37 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: Jersey has been doing it for two years. But New 38 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: Jersey lets you bet from wherever you are in the state. Right, 39 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: that's what most states are going to do. There's about 40 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 1: another dozen states or so that could legalize in the 41 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: next twelve months, and so ten years from now, we're 42 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 1: going to see a market that is still on the 43 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: incline because you're only going to be tapping into people 44 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 1: from the very beginning of conversation. Like think about what 45 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: Nevada was able to do. Just as one state with 46 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: brick in mortar casinos right used to live there, you 47 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: know how much bigger the market got. There are going 48 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 1: to be more and more people coming into the betting 49 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: market who right now they're learning what sports betting is, 50 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: or they're sports fans, or they're fifteen now, and in 51 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: ten years it will be twenty five. Right. So like 52 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: once you are expanding the market, the addressable market of 53 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: what's going to be available is only going to get better. 54 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: At the Action Network, you have made it a mission 55 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: to educate the audience. And I think sometimes people would 56 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: be surprised that the primary betters now in Europe they're 57 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: way ahead of us, but the primary betters in this 58 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: country are probably, I want to guess here, are betting 59 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: twenty five bucks a game. Twenty bucks a game. Yeah. 60 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: I've never considered myself as sharp. I never will be. 61 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: I think because of talking to people like you, I'm 62 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: sharper than I was ten years ago, So to talk 63 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: about not just the vision of what you're doing, but 64 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: the average person listening to us knows you and me. 65 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: But there I don't find myself particularly sophisticated. I bet futures, 66 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: I bet games, I'll bet an occasional prop I'm not 67 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: a guy betting at half. I'm not betting against myself. 68 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: You know, I'm not one of those guys. Where are 69 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: we at in terms of the consumers? I don't like 70 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: talking over the head of the consumer. I hate when 71 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: media talks to media and people feel like they're it's 72 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: not inclusive. What is the average sports better in America today? 73 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: I would say that it's a really interesting framing that 74 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: you're asking it this way, because if you had said 75 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: two years ago, three years ago, when Action Network started, 76 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: we were a content and product company that was catering 77 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: to the high end user people who knew how to bet, 78 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: people who want it to get inside information, based on 79 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 1: the proprietary data we have, based on the tools we have, 80 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 1: based on experts we have who know how to analyze 81 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: games and really understand how to find edges. I'd say 82 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: over the last twelve months, as the audience has become 83 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: much more, much less sophisticated about betting and is learning 84 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: about what it is. We're speaking to a much bigger 85 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: group that is like, Okay, if you want to bet 86 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: on the bucks this weekend, here's how you want to 87 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: think about it. Here's how you do it. Literally, how 88 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 1: do you make a bet? We are explaining that to people. 89 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: We are trying, as you said, to educate the consumer. 90 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: We are trying to explain here's what it means to 91 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 1: bet at plus three, Here's what it means to bet 92 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: at plus three and a half if the line is moving. 93 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: Those are complicated things, and they're intimidating things, and oftentimes 94 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:53,039 Speaker 1: the way I describe sort of our content and the 95 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: talent that we have, they are the people if you 96 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: walked up to them in a bar and you ask 97 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: them about sports betting in the most accessible, friendly way, 98 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: they would tell you everything you need to know without 99 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: any judgment. Like you would feel like, oh, this is 100 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: not a person who's going to make fun of me 101 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: because they know sports betting and I don't. Oftentimes, like 102 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 1: when you're trying to learn anything, that feels like it's 103 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: lived in the shadows. That's the feeling that you get, 104 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: and we're trying to break that down. By the way, 105 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: you and I were both at ESPN. You ran the 106 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: magazine and ESPN dot com. I yelled at people on 107 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: the radio. So you had a much more important role 108 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 1: in terms of a fundamental shaping of the content. I 109 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:36,239 Speaker 1: left because I was bored and uninspired. You left because 110 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: of opportunity. I always knew you would leave. We had conversations, like, 111 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: I know it was new, there was going to be 112 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: a moment, What was the epiphany? What was the moment 113 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: for you to leave? It's so it's a few things. 114 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 1: One like a I had always loved sports betting, as 115 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: you know, and as we've talked about, I had written 116 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: a book about guys who bet on sports in Las 117 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 1: Vegas twenty years ago, and it got me into the space, 118 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: and I was never a huge better Like I love 119 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 1: the math, I love the psychology of the language. I 120 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: love the narrative and the characters. And when I was 121 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: at ESPN sort of rising up through the executive ranks, 122 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: I was always forward facing and betting and doing columns 123 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: and doing stuff with you and podcasts whatever, And then 124 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: I wanted to start something that was sort of a 125 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: its own vertical. So we started something called Chalk and 126 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: I hired people to do that. And I just felt like, 127 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: betting is where it's going, yeah, and I want to 128 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: get there faster. And I felt like I was ahead 129 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: of the curve as far as what other people were thinking. 130 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 1: And I truly believe this is twenty seventeen, that it 131 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: would be legalized within three to four years. And I 132 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: was in my mid forties and had a really cushy 133 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: job and was wondering, is this it? Like? Am I 134 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: just going to keep doing this? And then the folks 135 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: at the Churning Group, who funded and launched the Action Network, 136 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: approached me and said, hey, we're thinking about doing this, 137 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: and what they described was everything that I wanted to do, right. 138 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: It was the exact thing that I was excited to do, 139 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: And so I took a shot. I thought to myself, 140 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: and you know, I spoke to my wife and we 141 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: thought about, like, all right, what our finances and do 142 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: we have enough safe for college and all those kinds 143 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: of things, and I'm like, if I'm going to take 144 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: a shot, it's going to be this subject with these people. 145 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: By the way, Chad Millman's wife, the first time I 146 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: met her, I said, she looks like my wife. She's 147 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: a redhead, and I was honestly, I asked, my wife, 148 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: do you have any relatives like historically West Hartford. I 149 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: don't really understand this. Dad's wife looks like you. So 150 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: let's get to the bets. Brady as a dog, He's 151 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 1: been a dog in the Super Bowl twice, but as 152 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: a general rule, I think I could put my head 153 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:56,719 Speaker 1: down on a pillow at night and feel pretty good. 154 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: Brady is a dog in a big game. I loved 155 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: Green Bay against Tampa, you know, ten days ago. I 156 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: loved it. It's the most shocking playoff game so far. 157 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 1: Your thoughts about Brady is a dog in a Super 158 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: Bowl and Brady is a dog in a big game? 159 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: Do you ever want to bet against Tom Brady? Like 160 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: you just it's it's hard to break this one down. 161 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 1: I will tell you that from a strictly from a 162 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: point spread perspective. And this is a lot of how 163 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: you know, you and I talk about these things. You 164 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: talk about it like emotionally, and you think about what's 165 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: in front of you, and I'm thinking, okay, where is 166 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: the edge, even the most minute edge from a point 167 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 1: spread perspective, there's not an edge in this game anymore. 168 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: The game opened it three and a half. The Chiefs 169 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: were three and a half point favorites. Immediately, the wise guys, 170 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: the professional betters, they bet it down from three and 171 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: a half to three. So they took the Buccaneers right, 172 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,559 Speaker 1: So the line settled at three. That's a number that 173 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: it's going to be very hard to get bookmakers to 174 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: move off of. They're not going to want to move 175 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: off of that, so there's no real edge. What I 176 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: would do, and I do think I liked the Bucks 177 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: in this game, but what I would do, I bet 178 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: the Bucks just to win outright, bet the Bucks on 179 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: the money line. Because what happened, what has happened is 180 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 1: the past twelve Super Bowls since two thousand and nine. 181 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: Two thousand nine was the last time a favorite in 182 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl did not cover the spread and what 183 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: I mean by and won the game. So Pittsburgh won 184 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: the game twenty seven twenty three against the Cardinals. They 185 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: were seven point favorites every Super Bowl since then. If 186 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: a favorite one, they covered, If an underdog was in 187 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: the game at the end of the game, they won. 188 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: So the point spread from an underdog perspective did not 189 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: make a difference. It's either the underdog one outright or 190 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 1: the favorites covered. So if you like Tampa Bay in 191 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: this game, but don't think there's an edge, bet on 192 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay to win the game. Kansas City was a 193 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 1: lousy cover team for the last two months. Then the 194 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 1: playoffs started and I think they're four and one. Now 195 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 1: they're last. You know they're now they're covering. They were 196 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: also a terrible red zone offensive team at the end 197 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: of the year. Then they got into the playoffs and 198 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: I saw some number today where they were getting touchdowns 199 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: eighty percent of the time, and it's like, yep, I 200 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: have theorized on the air. They're the first NBA dynasty 201 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: to ever play in the NFL. They're very much Kevin 202 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: Durant clan staff where they lack urgency because the offense 203 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 1: is so easy, and the first year they want it 204 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: Kevin Durant, those guys they just blew through people. By 205 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: the second year they were going to six games in 206 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: the second round of the playoffs. That when not when 207 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: you're led by defense, when you're led by offense and 208 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: points come easy. It's hard to instill urgency among those 209 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: kind of teams, the Warriors, the Chiefs, I look at 210 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: them now, and in fact, the overunders it's high by 211 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 1: historic standards. In fact, the overunder what is the overunder 212 00:11:54,640 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: right now? Fifty six fifty five and a half. Fend 213 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: at fifty seven and a half, which was the highest ever. 214 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: It was highest by half a point over the Patriots 215 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: and the Falcons. I tend to maybe you told me this, 216 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: I tend to bet unders. Yep. My takeaway is I 217 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: think it's going to be a game play between the twenties. 218 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: I think the two units with the highest percentage of 219 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: great players are wide receiver and defensive linemen. For both teams. 220 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be I think both quarterbacks are 221 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 1: going to be really uncomfortable for a majority of the game. 222 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: I just think, I think you can't run on You 223 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: can't run on Tampa with Videvilla, you can't. The six 224 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: games he played that people average sixty yards rushing. Green 225 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: Bay couldn't run. And green Bay has three Pro Bowl 226 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: offensive linemen, two played. David Bactieri didn't. So my takeaway 227 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: is it's a bunch of football inside the twenties. That's 228 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: my perception of it, I would bet the under. Do 229 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,439 Speaker 1: you believe this morning at fifty five and a half 230 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: there's a side to take. I don't think at fifty 231 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: five and a half there is. But here's a bet 232 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: that I would take that speaks exactly to what you're 233 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: talking about, that takes the total out of it where 234 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: I don't think there's an edge total sacks in the 235 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: game four and a half. I would take the over 236 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: because it speaks to what you're talking about, which is 237 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: there are a lot of great skill positions on the 238 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball, and the Chiefs do not 239 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: have a good defense, right, But Chris Jones is probably 240 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: one of the best defensive lineman in football, according a 241 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus, the second hardest defensive lineman to block 242 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: last season. Right. So you've got a very good pass 243 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: rushing defensive lineman. You've got a quarterback in Tom Brady 244 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: who we know is not mobile and is now running 245 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 1: an offense that does not have a ton of check 246 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,599 Speaker 1: down plays, right like they are an offense that is 247 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 1: built to go downfield. He needs a lot of time 248 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 1: to get rid of the ball. So you've got an 249 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: immobile quarterback with an offense that goes downfield and he 250 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: needs time to get rid of the ball. On the 251 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: other side of the ball, you've got Chick Mahomes, who, 252 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 1: while he is a good scrambler in the second half 253 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 1: of the year, was not scrambling very often even before 254 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: he was injured. He's got turf toe. He will be 255 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: nimble in the pocket, but he will not be scrambling 256 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,719 Speaker 1: all that often. So now you're talking about a guy 257 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: who's injured going against what you just noticed, what you 258 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: just said, a defensive line in the Bucks that is 259 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: going to stop the run. So he is going to 260 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: be dropping back often right and he's doing it without 261 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: Mitchell Schwartz at right tackle and without Eric Fisher at 262 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: left tackle. So to me, this feels like a good 263 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: opportunity to bet the over total four and a half 264 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: sex Chad Millman, Chief content Officer, Action Network. So the 265 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: Brady's passing yards and Mahomes passing yards I'm reading this verbatim, 266 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: are kind of low. The over under for the game 267 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: is high, but the over under for Mahomes and Brading 268 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: passing yards is fairly low. Mahomes three twenty nine ninety six. 269 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: So Vegas is predicting a less explosive game. Does that 270 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: feel right to you? Both of them feel spot on. 271 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: In fact, you know, all of our analysis, all of 272 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: our experts, they're sort of not finding much advantage in 273 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: either of their passing yards. Wow, okay, so I'm gonna 274 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: throw you know. It's it's really interesting. I said this, 275 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: This is why I would probably I don't feel I 276 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: don't have great conviction on this, but this is And 277 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: tell me I'm talking now, I sound like a fan. 278 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: So there's two things that Kansas City has done during 279 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: the playoffs that kind of blow my mind. If Patrick 280 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: Mahomes left was seven and a half minutes to go 281 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: in the third quarter and they beat Cleveland, a hot 282 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: team and a good team, I don't believe there's another team. 283 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: I think if Tom Brady goes seven and a half 284 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 1: minutes third quarter, they don't beat Washington. Forget green Bay. 285 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: They're not beating green Bay with that, They're not beating Washington. 286 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: I don't think Buffalo beats the Colts if Josh Allen 287 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: leaves seven and a half minutes to go in the 288 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: third quarter. So that's the first thing with the Chiefs, 289 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: the fact that their quarterback was hobble in the first 290 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 1: half left, was seven and a half to go in 291 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: the third and they beat Cleveland. It's a little bit 292 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: of a wow. They're really good. I don't think anybody else. 293 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: My second thing is Buffalo was the hottest team in 294 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: the league the last eight to ten weeks. They outscored 295 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: them at one point thirty eight to six. Buffalo, outside 296 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: of a hail Mary, had mostly dismantled very quality teams 297 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: like Miami, and that leads me to believe that they 298 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: don't play with great urgency. Tampa may have a deeper 299 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: roster of good players, but they're so explosive. I just 300 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: the way they played Buffalo, I thought to myself, they're 301 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: really Tampa's really not capable of beating Buffalo and school 302 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: going on a thirty eight six run and my over 303 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: valuing things that happen in those games. Am I becoming 304 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: a fan or what I'm saying. Do you ever look 305 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: at it and think, good God, this team is they 306 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 1: dismantle quality teams without quality people the homes leaving a game. Well, 307 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: I'd hate to break it to you, Colin, but you're 308 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 1: thinking like a better And what I mean by that 309 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 1: is this is how they break down games. Right. They 310 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: don't look at the final score. They look at how 311 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: did that final score happen? What's real? What are the 312 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: signals in the noise of that final score. And there's 313 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: a lot of transitive property that goes on when you're 314 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 1: thinking about betting, right, Like this team did X against 315 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: this team, that team did X against that team. All right, 316 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 1: so this team is better than this team because of 317 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,439 Speaker 1: what they did, regardless of what the final score was. 318 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 1: So you're thinking exactly like a better or would think like, 319 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: look at the performance of what Kansas City did against 320 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: really hot teams the challenge I would put in front 321 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 1: of you. And this is why I don't think a 322 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: lot of betters are finding sort of a massive edge 323 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: and why professional betters aren't piling in on Kansas City 324 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: right now. A lot of people felt like Buffalo was 325 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 1: overrated during that hot streak and they were not buying 326 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: in to Buffalo. So the fact that they did what 327 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: they did to Buffalo in the playoffs is not giving 328 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: them that much credit, right And Patrick Mahomes against Cleveland, 329 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 1: like even if he was hobbled, still is better than anybody. 330 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: I do give them credit for, Like what they did 331 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 1: in the last twenty minutes of that game and the 332 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 1: way their defense played and the way Chad Henny like 333 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: got that fourth down conversion. But that's the only thing 334 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 1: that I think you can look at and say, Okay, 335 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: that was truly impressive. And like they've already gotten the 336 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: credit for being the best team in the NFL. They're 337 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: in the super Bowl and their favorite. So the Buffalo 338 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: thing is the one thing that I think trips up 339 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: your logic. I think Kansas City this year is better 340 00:18:55,600 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 1: than Kansas City last year. What do the numbers say? Yeah, 341 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 1: like the numbers would ass a record. Yes, Like Patrick 342 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: Mahomes played all year, he is an MVP candidate. The 343 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: defense is not anywhere close to is good like the 344 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 1: defense last year. You know, Toron Matthew as a backstop 345 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 1: is amazing. But their their defense last year was significantly 346 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 1: better against the past, significantly better against the run, but overall, 347 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: like they were pressuring the ball, they were pressuring the 348 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: quarterback more. This year they aren't. I got Chris Jones 349 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 1: and everything else is kind of a kind of a fail. 350 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 1: So like, collectively they're not better. But because Patrick Mahomes 351 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: played and because they won fourteen straight, you know, they 352 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: won fourteen games this year. People think they're better. I 353 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 1: would take the defense from last year and the offense 354 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: from this year, and that would be a much better team. 355 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: I don't I don't necessarily buy that they're a much 356 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 1: better team than they were last year. Hey, I'm gonna 357 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: take him minute to give a shout out to FANDUL 358 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,439 Speaker 1: sports Play. They found a perfect way for everybody to 359 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 1: get in on the action this Sunday, I'm talking about 360 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 1: Big Game Bingo. 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You can win 375 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: your share of one hundred thousand dollars in prizes and 376 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 1: it's absolutely free to play only on the fan Duel 377 00:20:53,560 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 1: sports book app. The Andy reid Off of buy stat 378 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 1: is insane. He's off a bye. Is that being baked 379 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: into the line, Totally being baked into the line. Bookmakers 380 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:16,919 Speaker 1: expect betters to bet on the Chiefs, and that is 381 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: one factor. Like if it was Week seven and Andy 382 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: Andy Reido was coming off a bye and you normally 383 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: the Chiefs would be favored by seven points at home 384 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,920 Speaker 1: over say the Browns, then like they might be eight 385 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: point favorites or nine point favorites because of the bye 386 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: factor and because they know, like regular betting fans love 387 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: the Andy Reidoff a bye stat and so they're going 388 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: to pile in on the Chiefs and the Super Bowl. 389 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 1: The volume of money coming in is so high that 390 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: that's sort of all baked in. Like Andy Reidoff, a 391 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 1: bye is something that handicappers will think about, but the 392 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 1: betters who are just net new to betting are not 393 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,399 Speaker 1: going to be thinking about that at all. So the 394 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 1: wise guys if I said to you, there's one prop 395 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: the wise guys are on over under, wise guys are 396 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: on game, wise guys are on what are the wise 397 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: guys on? Game over under? And a prop that you 398 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: think you know you talked about earlier. The sacks was 399 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: a pretty sharp one. I got all three for you, 400 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: number one, But there is one thing I want to 401 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about because I saw 402 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: you do this other day and I had said the 403 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,640 Speaker 1: same thing in a meeting and people shot me down. 404 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: I want Andy Reid to win as many Super Bowls 405 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: as possible because I want him to be credited as 406 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: being a better coach than Bill Belichick. Well, we know 407 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 1: eight years without Brady six losing one non playoff, so 408 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 1: we can talk about the genius of Belichick. But there's 409 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 1: an ego component that hurts Bill in recent years. The 410 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:57,120 Speaker 1: more power he has, he tells all his scouts in January, thanks, 411 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:01,400 Speaker 1: I'll take the draft from here. It has arguably hurt him. 412 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: They don't have a pro bowler skill person since Gronk. 413 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: They don't have enough good players. Andy Reid doesn't have 414 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 1: that ego. He's more the mentor. In the end, Andy 415 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 1: re lets Brett Veach do it, and it is a 416 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: conveyor belt of great offensive personnel. So this goes back 417 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: to the Popovitch thing. The older Duncan got the less 418 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,160 Speaker 1: of a coach. Popovich was because the more power he had. 419 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 1: And so the reason New England worked and San Antonio 420 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 1: worked is because the system. Brady and Duncan bought into 421 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 1: the system. Duncan leaves the system, kawhis like this bullshit, 422 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: I don't like this system, and suddenly they're irrelevant. So 423 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: neither Popovich, Popovich and Belichick. And in the moment, this 424 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 1: is very human. They didn't quite understand the value of 425 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 1: having a player that wasn't in the money, was it? 426 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: I mean both took pay cuts. They were so respected 427 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: by their peers that they followed along. I mean Duncan 428 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: and Brady bought into the system. It's nonsense. There is 429 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 1: no real system. They're good coaches who had transformative players. 430 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 1: Andy Reid doesn't have a system. He wins with everybody, 431 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: and to me, that's a greater skill. I'm with you one. 432 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,399 Speaker 1: I think we need to keep that train going, all right, 433 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: enough stalling from me here is where the wise guys 434 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 1: were It's not always like black and white. The wise 435 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 1: guys were all over Tampa at plus three and a half. 436 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: That line is no longer available. It is now at 437 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 1: Kansas City minus three. At Tampa plus three, there is 438 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,640 Speaker 1: no value. So you're not going to find a wise 439 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 1: guy who's saying I like one side or the other. 440 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,679 Speaker 1: So my advice, if you feel strongly about the Bucks, 441 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: take the Bucks on the money line. I will not 442 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:58,040 Speaker 1: be a strong player in the sides market. I if 443 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 1: I had to choose, I would say I would take 444 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: the box at plus three in the total. Again, it 445 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: opened a fifty seven and a half. I like the 446 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 1: under at fifty seven and a half. It's now a 447 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: fifty five and a half. I'm going to correlate this. 448 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: I'm not trying to get out of it, but I'm 449 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 1: going to correlate this to the prop. There is a 450 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 1: prop out there over one and a half field goals 451 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:24,199 Speaker 1: in the first half. I believe this game will start slow. 452 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: Historically Super Bowls start very very slow, especially by steat 453 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,239 Speaker 1: especially Brady Right. So there is a stat like in 454 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl since ninety nine, the average score in 455 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: the first quarter is six point four points as the 456 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 1: game goes on. That is below the average. The average 457 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 1: for most NFL games is eight points scored in the 458 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 1: first quarter. So now it's at six point four. Over 459 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: the course of the game, it goes up. It's eleven 460 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: points in the second quarter. I'm sorry, it's thirteen points 461 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: in the second quarter, eleven points in the third quarter, 462 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: seventeen points the fourth quarter. So this is where it 463 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 1: gets interesting, right, if you are in a state where 464 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: it allows legal betting, you will be able to live 465 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: bet the game. If the game is low scoring in 466 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: the first quarter, the points bread the total will move down. 467 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 1: It's at fifty five and a half, it will get 468 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 1: lower if it gets to a number like fifty one, 469 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 1: which is considered a key number. A lot of games 470 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 1: land on fifty one. If it gets to fifty one, 471 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: that's when you want to bet the over. So for me, 472 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 1: I'm going to be looking for opportunities to live bet 473 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: this game. He's the chief content officer of the Action Network. 474 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 1: By the way, those listening this new company I have. 475 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: I want to tell everybody our social media at the volume, 476 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: sports on Twitter, at the volume, sports on Instagram, rate review, 477 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: hit the subscribe button wherever you want want to listen 478 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:59,919 Speaker 1: to our podcast. So now it's interesting. I was very 479 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 1: five hundred this year betting. I was awful in September, 480 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 1: there was no preseason, rookies had no impact. I thought, 481 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 1: I just I was guessing in September. I bet much 482 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 1: better in post Thanksgiving in terms of because I feel 483 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 1: like it was a hard year for betters and it 484 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 1: was a difficult year. COVID changed everything. No preseason did. 485 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: Even for a guy like you, a sharp at the 486 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 1: Action Network. Did you find it to be a little 487 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 1: trying this year? I did. I found I didn't trust 488 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: myself as not as much. I found I was more 489 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 1: swayed by recent performance and what my eyes showed me 490 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: on the field, and I was much more emotional, all 491 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 1: things that I don't like to be as a better 492 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 1: or in real life. And what happened was I stopped 493 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 1: thinking about like I look for advantages. I like teams 494 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 1: that are home underdogs. I like teams that are getting 495 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: that that are going against the majority of the betting. 496 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 1: Right in every game there's one team that usually gets 497 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: a majority of the bets. I usually like to go 498 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,919 Speaker 1: on the opposite side of that. And because of COVID 499 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: because it took a while to sort of understand who 500 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: the teams were and how they were performing. Like I 501 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: had a hard time trusting the numbers that I was seeing, 502 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: and so it definitely like it took a while to 503 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,359 Speaker 1: cycle up and trust what I was seeing. Yeah, No, 504 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: I do think I think it was tough. I think 505 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:33,399 Speaker 1: it was tough for me. It was the hardest year 506 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: I've ever had, And I think if it was hard 507 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 1: for you, then it's hard for the public. So I 508 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 1: don't want people to get discouraged. Betting football is fun, 509 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: Betting sports is fun, but this was a hard year. 510 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: I mean, let's be honest, really good rookies, like we're 511 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 1: just not a factor. Early in the year, they just 512 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 1: weren't that. You know. I was talking to Stefon Diggs 513 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: and he's like, it was until week you know, three 514 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 1: or four when I was like, you know, Josh and 515 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: I Josh Allen, I'd like, trust each other. It's just 516 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: it's the reality. You don't get those four warm up games. 517 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: You're practicing against each other, the DBS know the offense. 518 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 1: So I think it was a hard year for fans, 519 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,480 Speaker 1: and I think we're through the toughest part of it. 520 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,320 Speaker 1: So what else do I have, your Milman, Well, look, 521 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: the Bucks are the perfect example of that, right, Like, 522 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 1: look at what Tom Brady did and look at how 523 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 1: they evolved, and like there was a point in time 524 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 1: where Tom Brady had to say to Bruce Arian's, look, 525 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,520 Speaker 1: there aren't enough checkdown plays in the offense for me, 526 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: Like I cannot get rid of the ball fast enough. 527 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: The roots down field are taking too long to get open, 528 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 1: and it's putting me and jeopardy. It's putting the offensive jeopardy. 529 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 1: So they put more checkdowns into the offense, which is 530 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 1: why so many wise guys like Leonard Fournette over three 531 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 1: and a half receptions, right, because they changed the offense 532 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: a little bit. But also once they were able to 533 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 1: do that, in this last six weeks of the season, 534 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 1: the Bucks offense moving downfield got much better. And like 535 00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 1: that was not happening in the first part of the year, 536 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 1: but that might have happened earlier in the year if 537 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 1: they had had a full training camp, if they had 538 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 1: had in person OTAs, if they had been able to 539 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 1: be in meeting rooms together. All that is impacting it. Well, 540 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 1: Chad Millman, who I've known for a long time, and 541 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 1: Love is the sharpest guy I know in this space, 542 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 1: and it's it's great to see you. And he regularly 543 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: will just drive up to a window and give them 544 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of dollars. He is of all the whales, 545 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 1: you know, because you got a Chicago background, and guys 546 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 1: get whacked in that town. That's like a serious better 547 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 1: guys get whacked right of And I often ask you, 548 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 1: like when we used to do the Football Show, I'd say, 549 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 1: you'd have a guy named Sal and Sal there's never 550 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 1: been a Sal who doesn't bet a lot of money. 551 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:46,960 Speaker 1: I don't care if it's on the street corner or 552 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 1: it's a window. So of all your biggest players that 553 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:57,720 Speaker 1: you know and your history of your life, do they 554 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,720 Speaker 1: like legalize gambling? Is it a I mean seriously, now 555 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,520 Speaker 1: they were betting anyway, a schmuck like me, I love it, 556 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 1: But they were betting forever anyway. How do the real 557 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: whales think about guys like me joining the club? They well, ay, 558 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: if guys like you join the club, guys like me 559 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,080 Speaker 1: join the club, it actually gives them more of an 560 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 1: advantage because the more suckers there are, bigger opportunity, the 561 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 1: bigger opportunity there is for them number one, number two, Like, 562 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 1: it actually gives them more opportunity to move to different places. 563 00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 1: Do you know how many guys I know from New 564 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 1: Jersey who moved to Vegas because it was easier to 565 00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:45,040 Speaker 1: be a professional better in Vegas right than anywhere else 566 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 1: because there were so many outs right, so many places 567 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: to bet. It was so much easier to move cash, 568 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 1: like from one place to another. It's hard to do 569 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 1: it if you're trying to do it online, betting it 570 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 1: off short books. You don't know how you're going to 571 00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 1: get your money out. Like, the legal markets make it 572 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 1: better for everybody. So now a lot of the betters 573 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: I know who were living in Vegas, they can move 574 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: back home to Jersey. They can go get a house 575 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 1: in Aspen and live in Colorado. They can move back 576 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: to Chicago like they do. It's it's it's like the 577 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: pandemic world where all of a sudden, everybody is moving 578 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,480 Speaker 1: wherever they want to move because you don't have to 579 00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 1: be tethered to a specific location. Now they have a 580 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 1: lot more options of where they can do their job. 581 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 1: All right, the Action Network, check it out. You got 582 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 1: anything you want to sell me, anything you want to 583 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 1: tell the audience. Here go check out the Action Network 584 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 1: Action network dot Com. Download the free app. It's award 585 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 1: winning and you get a lot of great information about 586 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,479 Speaker 1: what to bet this weekend for the Super Bowl. It's 587 00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: award winning, voted best sports Betting App by the Fantasy 588 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 1: Sports Gaming Association in twenty nineteen, which is the last 589 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 1: year that they awarded anything. So we didn't do it 590 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. Award winning, award winning. I haven't won 591 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 1: an award. H Most likely to succeed in high school 592 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 1: is not an award. So I'm trying to think of one. Well, listen, clearly, 593 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 1: whether you're winning or not, it's crushing your confidence. It's 594 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 1: thanks just I'm not working out. I think I've ever 595 00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,360 Speaker 1: won one of those things. All right, Milman, great seeing 596 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 1: anybody love your work, folks, The Action Network none better. 597 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: Thanks man, all right, brother taught you the volume