WEBVTT - Trial Over Trump Targeting Pro-Palestinian Student Activists

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Law with June Grosso from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Columbia graduate student and pro Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil has

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<v Speaker 2>become a symbol of the Trump administrations cracked down on

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<v Speaker 2>international students at several American universities. Khalil was the first

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<v Speaker 2>target of Trump's effort to deport non citizen students with

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<v Speaker 2>pro Palestinian or anti Israeli views. He spent one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and four days in federal immigration detention before being released

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<v Speaker 2>last month.

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<v Speaker 3>They tried to portray me as a violent person. They

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<v Speaker 3>tried to portray me as a terrorist, as some lunatic,

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<v Speaker 3>but not presenting any evidence, not presenting any shred of

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<v Speaker 3>credibility to their claims.

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<v Speaker 2>Until this week, legal proceedings have focused on the detentions

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<v Speaker 2>of individual students, but now a federal judge in Boston

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<v Speaker 2>is holding the first trial challenging the Trump administration's policy

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<v Speaker 2>of revoking visas, arresting, detaining, and deporting non citizen students

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<v Speaker 2>and faculty who engage in pro Palestinian advocacy. Groups representing

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<v Speaker 2>university professors say the policy is chilling free speech on

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<v Speaker 2>campuses in violation of the First Amendment, but lawyers for

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<v Speaker 2>the government argue that no such policy exists. My guest

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<v Speaker 2>is immigration law expertly on Fresco, a partner at Holland

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<v Speaker 2>and Knight Leah, and there have been lots of orders

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<v Speaker 2>by judges over these arrests of non citizen students, but

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<v Speaker 2>this is the first trial. Explain how we got to

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<v Speaker 2>this point.

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<v Speaker 4>The Trump administration has been trying to crack down on

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<v Speaker 4>what it believes is excessive protests on university campuses by

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<v Speaker 4>foreign students. And it thinks that there are some number

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<v Speaker 4>of students that are coming to the United States that

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<v Speaker 4>are not coming for legitimate academic reasons, but are instead

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<v Speaker 4>coming to rabl rouse or cause trouble or otherwise create

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<v Speaker 4>anti Semitic activities in schools. And so what it's been

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<v Speaker 4>doing is it's been revoking visas, and it's been revoking

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<v Speaker 4>them in a number of matters. It's been actually either

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<v Speaker 4>just saying to students they can't re enter if they leave.

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<v Speaker 4>Sometimes it's been actually terminating them from the student visa database,

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<v Speaker 4>and in other times for people who are actually lawful

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<v Speaker 4>permanent residents, it's actually revoked their lawful permanent residence status,

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<v Speaker 4>and all under a provision in the Immigration Code which

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<v Speaker 4>says that the Secretary of State can revoke either lawful

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<v Speaker 4>permanent residency or a student visa, either one any immigration

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<v Speaker 4>status that's not citizenship. The Secretary of State can revoke

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<v Speaker 4>that status if the Secretary of State believes that doing

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<v Speaker 4>so is necessary because the foreign national is acting contrary

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<v Speaker 4>to the interests of the foreign policy of the United States,

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<v Speaker 4>And so in other cases involving specific individuals like Mahmoud

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<v Speaker 4>Khalil or other individuals, the judges have just taken these

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<v Speaker 4>claims at face value and said, Okay, I'm going to

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<v Speaker 4>rule on the legality of the question of whether what

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<v Speaker 4>Secretary of Rubio is doing violates the First Amendment or not.

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<v Speaker 4>And that statute is unconstitutional either on its face or

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<v Speaker 4>in the way it's being applied, such that these foreign

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<v Speaker 4>students are not being allowed to express themselves under the

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<v Speaker 4>First Amendment. But in this case, this particular judge, who's

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<v Speaker 4>known for basically not taking any claims at face value,

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<v Speaker 4>has decided that he would actually bring this to a trial.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's the main issue in the trial.

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<v Speaker 4>So what he's having a trial on is whether the

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<v Speaker 4>Secretary of State Marco Rubio is actually revoking these visas

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<v Speaker 4>in good faith because he's concerned about the foreign policy

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<v Speaker 4>of the United States, or whether it's being done as

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<v Speaker 4>a pretext to violate the First Amendment rights of these

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<v Speaker 4>foreign national students. Now, the problem is, there are a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of precursor issues in this case, like whether this

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<v Speaker 4>judge even has jurisdiction to be doing any of this,

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<v Speaker 4>whether this should be done in a removal process, whether

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<v Speaker 4>this statute doesn't even permit any judicial review of any kind.

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<v Speaker 4>And so the judge is sort of skipping all of

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<v Speaker 4>those steps, and it is saying, yes, I have jurisdiction, I

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<v Speaker 4>can review all of this, and it is just basically trying

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<v Speaker 4>to get to the end of the book first and

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<v Speaker 4>say I'm going to actually just get to the merits

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<v Speaker 4>of this. What is the administration doing? Is it illegal?

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<v Speaker 4>And then leading to the courts all of these questions

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<v Speaker 4>later the threshold questions about whether he even had jurisdiction

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<v Speaker 4>to do any of this in the first place, where

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<v Speaker 4>these cases are supposed to be brought, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>So Leon, the judge said that the trial's likely to

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<v Speaker 2>center on the question of whether non citizens lawfully present

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<v Speaker 2>in the country have the same free speech rights as citizen.

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<v Speaker 2>Is there case law on that?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, there actually is case law on that, and that

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<v Speaker 4>case law is pretty bad. There's a case called Haresiatis

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<v Speaker 4>versus Shaughnessy from the nineteen fifties, and it dealt with

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<v Speaker 4>actual lawful permanent residents of the United States, so not

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<v Speaker 4>non immigrant visa holders like student visa or visitor visa holders.

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<v Speaker 4>These were actual lawful permanent residents. And many of them

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<v Speaker 4>in that case had US citizens spouses and US citizen children.

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<v Speaker 4>Some had US citizen grandchildren. And the issue was there

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<v Speaker 4>was a statute that said not just current communists, but

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<v Speaker 4>even former members of the Communist Party could be deported

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<v Speaker 4>if they were just identified for deportation. And this was

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<v Speaker 4>in the height of the Cold War, and these folks argued,

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<v Speaker 4>wait a second, I'm not even in the Communist Party anymore.

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<v Speaker 4>I've renounced my affiliation with the Communist Party. And they

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<v Speaker 4>said the courts shouldn't be able to deport me, because

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<v Speaker 4>even if I was a Communist, what differ what it

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<v Speaker 4>make if I wasn't actually violently seeking to overthrow the government,

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<v Speaker 4>if I was just some sort of communists who just

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<v Speaker 4>was an economic person not trying to overthrow the government.

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<v Speaker 4>Why would I be deported for my First Amendment values?

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<v Speaker 4>And that court in nineteen fifty two said no, in

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<v Speaker 4>these statutes involving non citizens, the First Amendment does not

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<v Speaker 4>overcome the security concerns, the legitimate security concerns of the government,

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<v Speaker 4>even if the person is a lawful, permanent residence. So

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<v Speaker 4>if the Supreme Court actually upholds that doctrine here again

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<v Speaker 4>in twenty twenty five or twenty twenty six, whenever it

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<v Speaker 4>gets this case, then it will remain the same, which

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<v Speaker 4>is that when you're not a citizen of the United States,

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<v Speaker 4>your First Amendment right are not superior to the rights

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<v Speaker 4>of the government to be able to deport you for

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<v Speaker 4>conduct that they feel is deportable conduct. We shall see,

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<v Speaker 4>and the judge.

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<v Speaker 2>Is also going to consider whether the Secretary of State

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<v Speaker 2>is revoking these visas in good faith.

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<v Speaker 4>The other issue that they're trying to get at in

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<v Speaker 4>this trial is, yes, first, what First Amendment rights do

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<v Speaker 4>the non citizens have? But then number two, the judge

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<v Speaker 4>may say, well, fine, that's all fined in dandy. But

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<v Speaker 4>if the adjudications here are pretextual and I can find

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<v Speaker 4>that they're completely pretextual, meaning there actually is no threat

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<v Speaker 4>to foreign policy of any kind. I can still halt

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<v Speaker 4>these deportations because fine, maybe the statute does allow a

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<v Speaker 4>deportation when there's conduct that's a threat to the US

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<v Speaker 4>foreign policy. So, for instance, the number one version of

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<v Speaker 4>this would be that sub dictator gets a visitor visa

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<v Speaker 4>and comes to the United States, and nobody likes that

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<v Speaker 4>this dictator is being given safe haven to visit the

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<v Speaker 4>United States, So that would be the number one version

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<v Speaker 4>of this. But at the end of the day, that

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<v Speaker 4>might also be something that's not subject to judicial review.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's what the Court of Appeals, the District Court,

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<v Speaker 4>and the Supreme Court are going to need to decide,

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<v Speaker 4>is is this issue about whether the Secretary of State

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<v Speaker 4>is actually acting in good faith in a particular case

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<v Speaker 4>something that a judge actually can review in the first place.

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<v Speaker 4>And none of this is settled law, none of this

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<v Speaker 4>is established. All of this is being made up at

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<v Speaker 4>the beginning now as issues of first impression. I think

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<v Speaker 4>this judge is going to say he has jurisdiction, which

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<v Speaker 4>is why he's going through a trial. But we're going

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<v Speaker 4>to have to see where the First Circuit ultimately goes

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<v Speaker 4>down on this, and also where the Supreme Court actually

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<v Speaker 4>says at the end of the day, what actually happens.

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<v Speaker 4>What is the procedure that needs to be followed when

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<v Speaker 4>the Secretary of State decides that someone is acting contrary

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<v Speaker 4>to the foreign policy interests of the United States. Can

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<v Speaker 4>it be challenged in the district court? Does it have

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<v Speaker 4>to be challenged in the administrative removal proceeding? And then,

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<v Speaker 4>depending on which court, what is the nature of the challenge.

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<v Speaker 4>Can you actually prove this is pretextual or does the

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<v Speaker 4>administration get enough deference that you really can't even challenge

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<v Speaker 4>it at all? And so those are going to be

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<v Speaker 4>the questions we're going to be deciding in the next

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<v Speaker 4>year or so.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's move from the First Circuit to the Fifth Circuit,

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<v Speaker 2>the most conservative circuit in the country, and it upheld

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<v Speaker 2>an injunction that that stops a Texas anti immigration law

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<v Speaker 2>from being enforced in a victory for immigrants rights. Is

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<v Speaker 2>that a surprise coming from the Fifth Circuit?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it is a surprise.

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<v Speaker 4>In the center was a two to one decision, with

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<v Speaker 4>one of the Republican judges taking the side that the

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<v Speaker 4>statute from Texas was unconstitutional. If you recall what happened

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<v Speaker 4>in this This was during the Biden administration when the

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<v Speaker 4>State of Texas was saying that there was an inundation

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<v Speaker 4>of people coming into the United States. The Biden administration

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<v Speaker 4>didn't want to do anything about it, so it needed

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<v Speaker 4>to act, and the State of Texas passed the law

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<v Speaker 4>basically saying we can do three things that have never

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<v Speaker 4>been done before. Number One, we can actually deport people

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<v Speaker 4>ourselves to the border of Texas and Mexico. Maybe we

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<v Speaker 4>can't bring them into Mexico, but what we can do

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<v Speaker 4>is take them to the US side of the actual

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<v Speaker 4>physical border. And what we can say to them is

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<v Speaker 4>if you try to come back into the interior, if

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<v Speaker 4>you don't actually then take the next step yourself and

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<v Speaker 4>go into Mexico, then we're going to prosecute you for

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<v Speaker 4>a crime. And if we do it a second time,

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<v Speaker 4>it'll be an even worse crime. And so from that perspective,

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<v Speaker 4>the question was is that violate federal law. There was

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<v Speaker 4>a district court injunction that said that yes, this violate

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<v Speaker 4>federal law under the Arizona versus the United States case

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<v Speaker 4>that came during the Omama administration in twenty twelve. That

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<v Speaker 4>was the Arizona Law, where Arizona said, We're going to

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<v Speaker 4>basically take matters into our own hands and enforce immigration

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<v Speaker 4>law and ask people for their papers, and if they're

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<v Speaker 4>not here legally, we will arrest them and prosecute them

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<v Speaker 4>for a misdemeanor. That was rule to be unconstitutional. So

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<v Speaker 4>this is further than that. And in a two to

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<v Speaker 4>one decision, the Court of Appeals upheld in a permanent

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<v Speaker 4>way the stay that it had issued that had prevented

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<v Speaker 4>this Texas Statute from going into effect in the first place. Now,

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<v Speaker 4>what's interesting about this is the factual backdrop, and we're

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<v Speaker 4>going to be talking about factual backdrops a lot today,

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<v Speaker 4>but the sexual backdrop of this case is completely different

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<v Speaker 4>now than it was back when the Biden administration was

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<v Speaker 4>in office and there were these concerns about the amount

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<v Speaker 4>of people streaming in to the state of Texas. Now

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<v Speaker 4>pretty much everyone would admit I would think that there

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<v Speaker 4>are anybody streaming into the state of Texas anymore. That

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<v Speaker 4>this traffic has stopped in its entirety. And so the

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<v Speaker 4>question is, what is this emergency that Texas is claiming

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<v Speaker 4>is necessary now in order to have a law like this,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think that's going to be its biggest problem

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<v Speaker 4>if it tries to move forward to the Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 4>coming up next.

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<v Speaker 2>A judge blocks the administration from denying all asylum claims

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<v Speaker 2>at the southern border. You're listening to Bloomberg. A DC

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<v Speaker 2>federal judge has barred the Trump administration from expelling asylum seekers,

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<v Speaker 2>saying President Trump overstepped his legal and constitutional authority. Judge

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<v Speaker 2>Randolph Mass said portions of Trump's January twentieth executive order

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<v Speaker 2>violate the Immigration and Nationality Act and the US constitutions

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<v Speaker 2>separation of powers. The US Constitution can't be read to

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<v Speaker 2>grant the President or his delegees authority to adopt an

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<v Speaker 2>alternative immigration system which supplants the statutes that Congress has enacted.

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<v Speaker 2>I've been talking to immigration attorney Leon Fresco of Holland

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<v Speaker 2>and Knight. Has the Trump administration been denying asylum claims?

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<v Speaker 4>Correct? What has happened since the Trump administration has taken

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<v Speaker 4>power in January of twenty twenty five is they tightened

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<v Speaker 4>a regulation that was already being challenged through the Biden administration.

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<v Speaker 4>What the Biden administration was saying was you can't come

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<v Speaker 4>across the border illegal and ask for asylum. You have

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<v Speaker 4>to make an appointment using the CBP one app and

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<v Speaker 4>go to a port of entry and ask for asylum

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<v Speaker 4>at the port of entry. But if you try to

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<v Speaker 4>go in between the ports of entry, you are not

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<v Speaker 4>going to be allowed asylum. You're going to be pushed

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<v Speaker 4>back into Mexico because you're going to be banned. So

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<v Speaker 4>that was a provision that the Biden administration has. When

0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.640
<v Speaker 4>Trump comes into power, he then says, not only will

0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.360
<v Speaker 4>you be pushed back, not only will there be this band,

0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:31.439
<v Speaker 4>but there's not going to be a legal way to

0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.960
<v Speaker 4>come into the port of entries. We're closing the CDP

0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.120
<v Speaker 4>one app, We're closing the parole programs that allow you

0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.040
<v Speaker 4>to apply to come in legally. And so there's no

0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:44.040
<v Speaker 4>way in period. There's no asylum, there's no requesting it

0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.120
<v Speaker 4>at the ports of entry, there's no requesting paroles, nothing,

0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:50.720
<v Speaker 4>there's no way to ask for refugee status. If you're

0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.640
<v Speaker 4>just basically trying to arrive to the United States to

0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 4>ask for a refugee status aka asylum, there's no way

0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 4>to do that. And so when that happened. There literally

0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:02.880
<v Speaker 4>is a provision in the law that you can challenge

0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:06.679
<v Speaker 4>that in the District Court for the District of Columbia,

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 4>and that's what people did. They first challenged the Biden administration.

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.560
<v Speaker 4>That case never got to a decision, so it got

0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:17.400
<v Speaker 4>converted into a challenge to the Trump administration's policies. And

0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 4>now after a lot of excessive briefing back and forth,

0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:25.760
<v Speaker 4>because the Supreme Court had issued doctrines earlier in the

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:30.320
<v Speaker 4>Biden administration saying you can't get preliminary injunctive relief like this.

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:33.560
<v Speaker 4>You can only basically get summary judgment, and then that

0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 4>has to go all the way up to the Supreme

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:39.600
<v Speaker 4>Court before something like this can be stopped. So they

0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 4>were saying that district courts and circuit courts, on their

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:47.480
<v Speaker 4>various statutory regimes, don't have the jurisdiction to enjoin these

0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:52.120
<v Speaker 4>kinds of asylum programs. They can only enter a final

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.080
<v Speaker 4>judgment saying that they think it's illegal, and then that

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:56.840
<v Speaker 4>has to work its way up to the Supreme Court,

0:14:56.880 --> 0:14:59.600
<v Speaker 4>who then has to decide whether it's illegal or not.

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.920
<v Speaker 4>So that's what's happened here. A district judge from the

0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:06.200
<v Speaker 4>District of Columbia has said this is illegal. You have

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.440
<v Speaker 4>to provide some way for people who are outside of

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 4>the United States who when they arrive at the United

0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.840
<v Speaker 4>States are able to apply for asylum. You can't just

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 4>have a wholesale ban on people applying for asylum. And

0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.360
<v Speaker 4>that that's what's basically happened here, and so that the

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:26.480
<v Speaker 4>executive orders and regulations that have been issued by the

0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 4>Trump administration banning asylum are declared illegal. Now that declaration

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:35.440
<v Speaker 4>won't go into effects again unless and until the Supreme

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.640
<v Speaker 4>Court allows it to go into effect. But nevertheless, if

0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:41.160
<v Speaker 4>the Supreme Court agrees that there has to be some

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:45.600
<v Speaker 4>way for people to apply for asylum, then the numbers

0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:48.920
<v Speaker 4>will eventually change from the zero numbers that we have now.

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.440
<v Speaker 4>I mean they may not change immediately because there will

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 4>be this game of sort of you know, touching the

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.200
<v Speaker 4>stove and seeing what happens when you touch the stove, etc.

0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 4>But once people touch the stove enough to see that no,

0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:03.400
<v Speaker 4>the government does indeed have to let them in and

0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:06.280
<v Speaker 4>then let them apply for asylum, then you will see

0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:07.480
<v Speaker 4>people doing this again.

0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 2>I mean, asylum is a pretty basic concept in this

0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:13.840
<v Speaker 2>country through our history. What do you think the Supreme

0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:16.120
<v Speaker 2>Court will do well.

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 4>It's difficult because if you're actually going to look at this,

0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:22.600
<v Speaker 4>and I always try to use the either AI judge

0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 4>or the robot judge, or the judge that has no

0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:28.400
<v Speaker 4>political sentiment of any kind, it's hard to read the

0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:32.840
<v Speaker 4>statutory framework which says that regardless of how you enter

0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:35.960
<v Speaker 4>the United States, if you're in the territory of the

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 4>United States, you're permitted to apply for asylum, which is

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.480
<v Speaker 4>what the statute literally says, and then say, well, there's

0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:45.480
<v Speaker 4>no way to apply for the asylum because what's happening

0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:49.800
<v Speaker 4>is the administration is using a second statute which says

0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:55.840
<v Speaker 4>that they can pick places or reasons, discretionary reasons why

0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:59.040
<v Speaker 4>people cannot get asylums. So, for instance, let's say there's

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:02.000
<v Speaker 4>some new AI crime that nobody thought of when they

0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 4>read the statute. They can say, anybody who's committed this

0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:09.439
<v Speaker 4>AI crime can't get asylum. Okay, fine, nobody thought of

0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:12.200
<v Speaker 4>that when there was a statute, fair enough, But people

0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:16.119
<v Speaker 4>did think of the fact that if you came illegally

0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 4>you could apply for asylum, because that's literally what it

0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.120
<v Speaker 4>says in the statute. So can that be a reason?

0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:25.320
<v Speaker 4>Is that really a permissible reason that you can use

0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:29.080
<v Speaker 4>your discretion for to not allow people to get asylum,

0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:32.840
<v Speaker 4>because that's literally one that's covered in the statute. It's

0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:35.440
<v Speaker 4>not like AI where it would be a brand new

0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:37.920
<v Speaker 4>thing nobody thought about, which was the whole point of

0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:42.760
<v Speaker 4>Congress giving this authority to add new discretionary reasons why

0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:46.960
<v Speaker 4>somebody couldn't get asylum. This is one that was already contemplated.

0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 4>So I do think if you have a disinterested, non political,

0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:56.000
<v Speaker 4>computerized judge, it would seem to me that that judge

0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:58.480
<v Speaker 4>would say, yeah, there has to be some way you

0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:01.440
<v Speaker 4>can apply for asylum if you enter the United States.

0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:03.720
<v Speaker 4>But we're going to see what the Supreme Court does.

0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 4>Because the Supreme Court may just say I get all that,

0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:08.919
<v Speaker 4>and that's fine and dandy, but I don't want to

0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 4>return to the state of affairs in the Biden administration

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.000
<v Speaker 4>where there were hundreds of thousands of people coming each

0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:20.399
<v Speaker 4>month across the border, and so they may just say

0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:24.359
<v Speaker 4>too bad. We'll really just have to see where the

0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:26.840
<v Speaker 4>Supreme Court will go down. As I sit here now,

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.800
<v Speaker 4>I cannot make a good faith prediction because of other

0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:32.160
<v Speaker 4>cases we'll talk about in a second, where I would

0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:34.119
<v Speaker 4>never have guessed the Supreme Court would have ruled the

0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.439
<v Speaker 4>way it did. And I think the Supreme Court is

0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:41.520
<v Speaker 4>just tired of interventions that don't allow the Trump administration

0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.480
<v Speaker 4>to enforce immigration laws. And so they may just say, look,

0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:47.960
<v Speaker 4>if the Congress wants to do something, that's great, But

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.080
<v Speaker 4>if the Congress isn't going to do anything, we're not

0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:54.480
<v Speaker 4>going to recap the president's ability to enforce immigration law.

0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean on the emergency docket. The Supreme Court

0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:03.959
<v Speaker 2>has basically given Trump everything he asks for regarding immigration,

0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:10.040
<v Speaker 2>including last Friday where they said he can deport people

0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 2>to third countries.

0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 4>Correct. So in this case, here's what happened. You had

0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.920
<v Speaker 4>eight individuals from all over the world, the notorious sort

0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:22.040
<v Speaker 4>of countries. We can't deport people to Cuba, Allos, Cambodia,

0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 4>et cetera. And so what the Trump administration is basically

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.919
<v Speaker 4>trying to accomplish as it's basically saying, look, I think

0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:33.560
<v Speaker 4>these countries are acting in a pretextual manner not allowing

0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:36.520
<v Speaker 4>us to deport their citizens back to their countries. If

0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:40.359
<v Speaker 4>we actually make things onerous enough and difficult enough, they'll

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:44.920
<v Speaker 4>eventually start taking their people back. Whether it's directly or

0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:49.400
<v Speaker 4>if we deport them to very strange places, then those

0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 4>individuals will starve to death unless those countries accept them back.

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.199
<v Speaker 4>So they will eventually give them a travel permit to

0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.560
<v Speaker 4>go back to Cambodia or Loos or Cuba or something,

0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:01.359
<v Speaker 4>because they're that's just going to let people start to

0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:04.639
<v Speaker 4>death in the middle of some strange country. So it

0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:07.720
<v Speaker 4>tried to test out this theory in South Sudan. It

0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:11.480
<v Speaker 4>tried to deport people from Cuba and Laos and Cambodia

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:14.520
<v Speaker 4>and other places, eight people to South Sudan. But in

0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:17.359
<v Speaker 4>the process of trying to do that, it didn't allow

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.679
<v Speaker 4>these individuals to raise a claim that they would be

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.760
<v Speaker 4>subject to torture if they were deported to South Sudan.

0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:26.760
<v Speaker 4>And so there was a district judge who said stop that,

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:30.640
<v Speaker 4>you can't continue this process. And the problem was by

0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:34.359
<v Speaker 4>the time that order was entered, the individuals were already

0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:37.200
<v Speaker 4>in Djibouti. And I think this is another issue of

0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:40.520
<v Speaker 4>bad facts make bad laws, because now there was eight

0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:44.399
<v Speaker 4>people in Djibouti where the US basically was stuck. What

0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:46.760
<v Speaker 4>was it supposed to do with these people? You know,

0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:49.320
<v Speaker 4>do you do trials for whether they're going to be

0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:52.440
<v Speaker 4>torture or not. Who are these Americans having to take

0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:55.560
<v Speaker 4>care of these people in Djibouti? You know they can't

0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:58.159
<v Speaker 4>go home now. It was a big mess, and so

0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:01.000
<v Speaker 4>I think the Supreme Court was worried about just this

0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 4>logistical nightmare of having at least a month or two

0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.760
<v Speaker 4>or maybe more of hearings and trials for these eight

0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:11.200
<v Speaker 4>individuals to may claims about whether they would face torture

0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:14.679
<v Speaker 4>in South Sudan, and so basically threw its hands up

0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:17.040
<v Speaker 4>and said, you know what, we're done with this. Allow

0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:20.000
<v Speaker 4>these people to be sent to South Sudan. But in

0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:24.000
<v Speaker 4>the meantime, that's created a president now where the Trump

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:27.960
<v Speaker 4>administration will be able to send anybody to South Sudan

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.080
<v Speaker 4>or Libya or any other country it wants to. You

0:21:31.160 --> 0:21:33.399
<v Speaker 4>won't have an opportunity to be able to raise a

0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:36.159
<v Speaker 4>claim that you would be tortured in that country. You

0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:38.880
<v Speaker 4>can only raise a claim that you will be tortured

0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:42.560
<v Speaker 4>in your country a citizenship. But they'll say, fine, okay,

0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 4>so you'll be tortured in your country a citizenship, whatever

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.960
<v Speaker 4>that may be. But who cares, We're now going to

0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:52.480
<v Speaker 4>send you to Libya or South Sudan or some other country,

0:21:52.880 --> 0:21:55.840
<v Speaker 4>and so I did not expect the Supreme Court to

0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:59.280
<v Speaker 4>not allow for some due process to be able to

0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 4>make these claims. But that is where we are, and

0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:05.040
<v Speaker 4>so at the moment, unless the Supreme Court comes back

0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:07.680
<v Speaker 4>and revisits this later, which by the way, it has

0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:10.600
<v Speaker 4>done in other issues. There were some times during the

0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:14.440
<v Speaker 4>Biden administration where it lets certain things go into effect

0:22:14.920 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 4>that then it later said, this makes no sense, why

0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:20.880
<v Speaker 4>did that happen, and then it actually enjoined them. And

0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:24.160
<v Speaker 4>so this could and maybe even probably would happen later

0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:27.760
<v Speaker 4>moving on in the future, especially depending on if the

0:22:27.880 --> 0:22:31.280
<v Speaker 4>news starts getting really stark and people start actually dying,

0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:34.080
<v Speaker 4>you know, if they get deported to certain places, then

0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:37.400
<v Speaker 4>the facts may get bad enough that the Court does

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:40.800
<v Speaker 4>revisit this, and maybe more quickly than not. But at

0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:43.680
<v Speaker 4>the moment, the current state of affairs is the Trump

0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:48.000
<v Speaker 4>administration can deport any foreign national to any country it

0:22:48.119 --> 0:22:51.240
<v Speaker 4>wants to, as long as it's not their country of

0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:54.400
<v Speaker 4>citizenship where they fear persecution or torture.

0:22:55.160 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 2>So in the past month, the Trump administration has ramped

0:22:58.680 --> 0:23:03.159
<v Speaker 2>up raids on home holmes, workplaces, courthouses, some more than

0:23:03.160 --> 0:23:06.360
<v Speaker 2>one hundred and fifty lawsuits across the US have been

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 2>filed alleging that federal agents are using excessive force and

0:23:11.000 --> 0:23:16.680
<v Speaker 2>warrantless arrests while engaging in illegal racial profiling to target

0:23:16.800 --> 0:23:20.200
<v Speaker 2>non white people. I see why they're suing. Do these

0:23:20.240 --> 0:23:21.560
<v Speaker 2>suits have a chance.

0:23:21.920 --> 0:23:26.080
<v Speaker 4>Well, the problem is these are very fact intensive suits

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:29.159
<v Speaker 4>that don't really lend themselves to class action. What they

0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:32.400
<v Speaker 4>lend themselves really, if you're looking at this again from

0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:37.439
<v Speaker 4>the dispassionate computerized judge, issue is, in a specific case,

0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:42.320
<v Speaker 4>was a specific person apprehended by ICE because of an

0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:46.399
<v Speaker 4>enforcement action that violated the need to go get a warrant. So,

0:23:46.520 --> 0:23:50.800
<v Speaker 4>for instance, as an example, suppose that ICE was in

0:23:50.840 --> 0:23:54.520
<v Speaker 4>an apartment building and had a warrant to get one person,

0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:57.960
<v Speaker 4>Joe Smith at apartment one oh one, and then ICE

0:23:58.000 --> 0:24:01.359
<v Speaker 4>just started knocking on all the doors. Than anytime someone

0:24:01.440 --> 0:24:05.320
<v Speaker 4>opened a door who look you of a certain ethnic group,

0:24:05.359 --> 0:24:08.480
<v Speaker 4>that I just apprehended that person and been asked questions later,

0:24:09.200 --> 0:24:12.680
<v Speaker 4>that would be a situation where that person's apprehension would

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:15.600
<v Speaker 4>violate the Fourth Amendment. And then they could say, within

0:24:15.640 --> 0:24:18.680
<v Speaker 4>the context of their removal proceedings, you need to dismiss

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:22.240
<v Speaker 4>my removal proceedings because they started on the basis of

0:24:22.320 --> 0:24:26.880
<v Speaker 4>this violation of my Fourth Amendment right, So that would

0:24:26.960 --> 0:24:30.199
<v Speaker 4>be the way to handle that. As a class, it

0:24:30.280 --> 0:24:34.720
<v Speaker 4>becomes more complicated because there unfortunately does need to be

0:24:35.040 --> 0:24:37.720
<v Speaker 4>This is sort of one of the oddest debates. And

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:40.320
<v Speaker 4>this debate I saw it a lot when I was

0:24:40.359 --> 0:24:43.119
<v Speaker 4>a staffer in the Congress, and I'd have this debate

0:24:43.160 --> 0:24:46.600
<v Speaker 4>with many of my fellow Democratic colleagues. I'd say, look,

0:24:46.640 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 4>the whole point of these alienage statutes, whether you like

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:52.239
<v Speaker 4>it or not, is there does need to be a

0:24:52.240 --> 0:24:55.879
<v Speaker 4>certain racial profiling component to it, because the whole point

0:24:55.960 --> 0:24:58.399
<v Speaker 4>is we need to profile are you a citizen or

0:24:58.400 --> 0:25:01.639
<v Speaker 4>are you not? And so we need to get to

0:25:01.680 --> 0:25:03.440
<v Speaker 4>the bottom of that, and so we do need to

0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:07.200
<v Speaker 4>treat people differently on this. This isn't like another law

0:25:07.600 --> 0:25:10.360
<v Speaker 4>where you know it's burglary and that we don't care

0:25:10.400 --> 0:25:13.679
<v Speaker 4>about the human being who's doing the burglary. We just

0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:16.280
<v Speaker 4>ask are you in the house? We find, we arrestue.

0:25:16.440 --> 0:25:18.199
<v Speaker 4>If you're not in the house, you're not the burglar.

0:25:18.320 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 4>We don't arrestue. Okay, those are easy, but the whole

0:25:21.720 --> 0:25:26.400
<v Speaker 4>purpose of these crimes. Unfortunately is these are status based crimes.

0:25:26.480 --> 0:25:30.040
<v Speaker 4>This is not like other crimes. So you do have

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:34.520
<v Speaker 4>to treat certain people differently just based on their status.

0:25:34.960 --> 0:25:37.959
<v Speaker 4>And so because of that, this becomes very complicated because

0:25:38.400 --> 0:25:42.280
<v Speaker 4>the government does have to arrest people on the basis

0:25:42.320 --> 0:25:45.440
<v Speaker 4>of these sort of immutable factors which are their status.

0:25:45.840 --> 0:25:50.440
<v Speaker 4>And so that's why I don't think as these cases

0:25:50.520 --> 0:25:53.320
<v Speaker 4>percolate up the courts. They may be successful at the

0:25:53.320 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 4>beginning in certain individual district courts, but as these cases

0:25:57.320 --> 0:26:00.480
<v Speaker 4>percolate up the courts, I think that the Supreme which

0:26:00.480 --> 0:26:04.400
<v Speaker 4>has been very very adverse to any kind of facial

0:26:04.520 --> 0:26:07.960
<v Speaker 4>challenges of any kind and has always really been trying

0:26:08.000 --> 0:26:12.000
<v Speaker 4>to push litigants towards these as applied challenges in their

0:26:12.040 --> 0:26:16.920
<v Speaker 4>particular case, especially in this type of framework, is really

0:26:16.960 --> 0:26:20.479
<v Speaker 4>going to say to individuals, look, if I did something

0:26:20.560 --> 0:26:24.280
<v Speaker 4>to you in your particular case, challenge it either within

0:26:24.320 --> 0:26:27.720
<v Speaker 4>the context of your removal proceeding, or sue them. You know,

0:26:27.800 --> 0:26:30.320
<v Speaker 4>let's say you're a US citizen and you got placed

0:26:30.320 --> 0:26:33.120
<v Speaker 4>in nice custody for ten days, to them and say

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:35.639
<v Speaker 4>why was I placed a nice custody for ten days?

0:26:36.040 --> 0:26:38.680
<v Speaker 4>And you know, get civil damages or something like that.

0:26:39.119 --> 0:26:43.480
<v Speaker 4>But to actually have injunctive relief that sort of creates

0:26:43.600 --> 0:26:47.120
<v Speaker 4>new procedures that ICE has to follow. I don't think

0:26:47.160 --> 0:26:48.960
<v Speaker 4>that the Supreme Court is going to allow that to

0:26:49.160 --> 0:26:50.000
<v Speaker 4>be put in place.

0:26:50.200 --> 0:26:53.920
<v Speaker 2>Class actions are not easy. Thanks so much, Leon. That's

0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 2>Leon Fresco of Hound and Knight. Coming up. Who wins

0:26:57.600 --> 0:27:01.960
<v Speaker 2>Who loses? In Trump's Tax Bill? This is Bloomberg and

0:27:02.119 --> 0:27:06.560
<v Speaker 2>nearly nine hundred pages. President Trump's new tax bill is

0:27:06.600 --> 0:27:10.440
<v Speaker 2>a sprawling collection of tax breaks, spending cuts, and other

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:15.800
<v Speaker 2>Republican priorities, including new money for national defense and deportations.

0:27:16.119 --> 0:27:19.359
<v Speaker 2>So who wins and who loses? My guest is an

0:27:19.440 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 2>expert in tax law, Alex Raskolnikov, a professor at Columbia

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:27.040
<v Speaker 2>Law School. Alex, what are your biggest takeaways from the bill?

0:27:27.440 --> 0:27:32.919
<v Speaker 1>Well, the two biggest takeaways is one, it's enormously expensive,

0:27:33.400 --> 0:27:37.000
<v Speaker 1>and it just drings the moment of reckoning much closer.

0:27:37.320 --> 0:27:41.320
<v Speaker 1>It's going to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars,

0:27:41.680 --> 0:27:44.480
<v Speaker 1>and sooner or later the bond market is going to

0:27:44.520 --> 0:27:47.199
<v Speaker 1>make us pay. That's in terms of revenue and then

0:27:47.240 --> 0:27:52.000
<v Speaker 1>in terms of distribution. It is basically an extension of

0:27:52.160 --> 0:27:56.560
<v Speaker 1>twenty seventeen bill, which favored the better off, and this

0:27:56.640 --> 0:28:00.320
<v Speaker 1>one favors the better off even more because of the

0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:04.640
<v Speaker 1>pretty harsh measures having to do with health care and

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:08.320
<v Speaker 1>food stems at the bottom of the distribution, So it's

0:28:08.359 --> 0:28:09.240
<v Speaker 1>pretty regressive.

0:28:09.600 --> 0:28:14.080
<v Speaker 2>The Congressional Budget Office projected the bill would increase federal

0:28:14.119 --> 0:28:19.360
<v Speaker 2>deficits by nearly three point three trillion, But Senate Republicans

0:28:19.359 --> 0:28:23.119
<v Speaker 2>are proposing a different strategy of figuring that out.

0:28:23.760 --> 0:28:27.720
<v Speaker 1>Yes, okay, it's easier to understand with spending than with taxes.

0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:31.120
<v Speaker 1>So I'll just give you an example of what Democrats

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:34.160
<v Speaker 1>may do next time they're in power. So let's say

0:28:34.880 --> 0:28:38.240
<v Speaker 1>they want to help people who are struggling economically, and

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:42.160
<v Speaker 1>they decide to enact the program that's going to guarantee

0:28:42.440 --> 0:28:46.560
<v Speaker 1>every American an annual income of let's say forty thousand

0:28:46.640 --> 0:28:50.160
<v Speaker 1>dollars a year. Okay, so if you make twenty, you're

0:28:50.160 --> 0:28:52.200
<v Speaker 1>going to get extra twenty, and if you make ten,

0:28:52.240 --> 0:28:54.800
<v Speaker 1>you're going to get extra thirty. And if you make nothing,

0:28:54.840 --> 0:28:57.840
<v Speaker 1>you get forty thousand a year. So, you know, not lavish,

0:28:57.880 --> 0:29:00.960
<v Speaker 1>but pretty good. Obviously, it's going to cost enormous amount

0:29:01.040 --> 0:29:04.360
<v Speaker 1>of money, right, so the Democrats are going to say, oh,

0:29:04.480 --> 0:29:08.160
<v Speaker 1>but we're going to enact this program only for one month.

0:29:08.480 --> 0:29:12.480
<v Speaker 1>So they pass a law that enacts is unbelievably generous

0:29:12.520 --> 0:29:15.960
<v Speaker 1>program for one month, and a week later they convene again.

0:29:16.120 --> 0:29:19.920
<v Speaker 1>Congress convenes again and say, well, we're now going to

0:29:20.080 --> 0:29:23.920
<v Speaker 1>extend this program permanently. How much is going to cost?

0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:27.280
<v Speaker 1>And so what Republicans are saying now equivalent to what

0:29:27.440 --> 0:29:29.920
<v Speaker 1>Democrats are going to say, then it's going to cost nothing.

0:29:30.280 --> 0:29:33.280
<v Speaker 1>It's going to cost nothing because there's already a forty

0:29:33.360 --> 0:29:37.160
<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars payment. And so we're just continuing with what

0:29:37.280 --> 0:29:41.320
<v Speaker 1>Republicans call current policy. It's not the law. The law

0:29:41.440 --> 0:29:44.400
<v Speaker 1>is that the program expires, but the policy is that

0:29:44.440 --> 0:29:47.760
<v Speaker 1>the program is active now, and so it costs nothing.

0:29:47.800 --> 0:29:51.160
<v Speaker 1>To extend something forever that costs enormous amount of money.

0:29:51.240 --> 0:29:52.160
<v Speaker 1>So that's the trick.

0:29:52.720 --> 0:29:56.640
<v Speaker 2>It's quite a trick. You mentioned the Medicaid and snap

0:29:57.040 --> 0:30:00.480
<v Speaker 2>how many people are going to be out of health insurance.

0:30:01.080 --> 0:30:05.080
<v Speaker 1>So here too, they're varying forecasts, and of course Democrats

0:30:05.120 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 1>are saying more in Republicans are saying less. So I

0:30:07.640 --> 0:30:11.640
<v Speaker 1>think a pretty reasonable forecast is about ten million people

0:30:11.800 --> 0:30:15.200
<v Speaker 1>will lose insurance, will lose Medicaid. The big reason is

0:30:15.240 --> 0:30:18.120
<v Speaker 1>there's going to be work requirements, and so people who

0:30:18.160 --> 0:30:20.880
<v Speaker 1>can't meet them will lose coverage. Half of the ten

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:23.600
<v Speaker 1>million roughly these are all estimates, but half of the

0:30:23.640 --> 0:30:27.200
<v Speaker 1>ten million is estimated to lose medicaid because they will

0:30:27.200 --> 0:30:30.680
<v Speaker 1>not comply with work requirements because you know, it's like

0:30:30.960 --> 0:30:33.320
<v Speaker 1>they may not have access to the internet, or they

0:30:33.360 --> 0:30:36.600
<v Speaker 1>may not just understand how to feel forms, or they

0:30:36.640 --> 0:30:38.880
<v Speaker 1>may not know that they need to feal forms. So

0:30:38.960 --> 0:30:42.360
<v Speaker 1>these people would not comply with requirements even though they

0:30:42.520 --> 0:30:45.400
<v Speaker 1>could comply, they just won't feel the right form in

0:30:45.440 --> 0:30:49.800
<v Speaker 1>the right place. Now you're talking about low income population

0:30:50.720 --> 0:30:54.640
<v Speaker 1>with you know, hard lives and a lot of worries about,

0:30:54.720 --> 0:30:57.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, where the food is going to come from tomorrow.

0:30:57.800 --> 0:31:01.160
<v Speaker 1>So it's not unreasonable to say that some people will

0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:04.160
<v Speaker 1>just not do what they should do and could in

0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:07.760
<v Speaker 1>principle do. But it's an estimate. But under any estimate,

0:31:08.320 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 1>any estimate, I think it's safe to say that millions

0:31:11.160 --> 0:31:14.120
<v Speaker 1>of people are going to lose medicale And what about.

0:31:13.840 --> 0:31:18.840
<v Speaker 2>The claim that you know, the very very rich billionaires, etc.

0:31:19.240 --> 0:31:21.280
<v Speaker 2>Are going to benefit from the bill?

0:31:21.600 --> 0:31:24.280
<v Speaker 1>They're definitely going to benefit from the bill. I don't

0:31:24.360 --> 0:31:27.640
<v Speaker 1>understand where the claims are coming on the Democratic side,

0:31:27.680 --> 0:31:30.120
<v Speaker 1>but there's the greatest beneficiary or that this is the

0:31:30.200 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 1>bill that's like the biggest giveaway to billionaires. Official scoring

0:31:34.840 --> 0:31:40.520
<v Speaker 1>from the government does not show distributional consequences above two

0:31:40.560 --> 0:31:43.880
<v Speaker 1>million a year of income, so we're not definitely talking

0:31:43.880 --> 0:31:46.280
<v Speaker 1>about billionaires, and you know, these people are going to

0:31:46.280 --> 0:31:49.360
<v Speaker 1>be better off. The bill is fairly regressive, but it's

0:31:49.440 --> 0:31:53.880
<v Speaker 1>not specific to billionaires. When I'm thinking about what specific

0:31:54.000 --> 0:31:59.840
<v Speaker 1>provisions in the bill can disproportionately benefit billionaires, I don't

0:31:59.840 --> 0:32:04.240
<v Speaker 1>think them. So there are definitely provisions that benefit millionaires

0:32:04.280 --> 0:32:08.720
<v Speaker 1>and multimillionaires and billionaires, but in terms of the impact

0:32:08.760 --> 0:32:11.320
<v Speaker 1>in terms of how it's going to feel compared to

0:32:11.360 --> 0:32:14.760
<v Speaker 1>the taxes they pay. Now, it's going to be millionaires

0:32:15.000 --> 0:32:18.360
<v Speaker 1>and people making you know, somewhere from two to five

0:32:18.440 --> 0:32:21.040
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand a year who are going to really feel

0:32:21.080 --> 0:32:24.200
<v Speaker 1>the biggest difference in terms of comparing to what they're paying.

0:32:24.240 --> 0:32:27.640
<v Speaker 2>Now, what about the salt taxes? I mean they raise

0:32:27.720 --> 0:32:29.000
<v Speaker 2>those just for a time.

0:32:29.480 --> 0:32:32.120
<v Speaker 1>That's why I said that, you know, it's millionaires and

0:32:32.280 --> 0:32:34.959
<v Speaker 1>people making two to hundred thousands a year, so two

0:32:35.040 --> 0:32:37.520
<v Speaker 1>to five hundred thousand a year reference was about soul,

0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:44.080
<v Speaker 1>So it's a pretty noticeable change. It's temporary, but noticeable

0:32:44.440 --> 0:32:50.280
<v Speaker 1>extra allowance of a deduction that will be felt by

0:32:50.320 --> 0:32:53.280
<v Speaker 1>people making about that amount, like two to five hundred

0:32:53.320 --> 0:32:56.720
<v Speaker 1>thousand something like that. So, of course, state taxes vary

0:32:56.800 --> 0:32:59.040
<v Speaker 1>by state and the thresholds vary by state, so it's

0:32:59.040 --> 0:33:01.880
<v Speaker 1>hard to be prec but roughly, like you know, the

0:33:01.960 --> 0:33:05.520
<v Speaker 1>affluent people who are not rich probably but doing well.

0:33:05.640 --> 0:33:10.880
<v Speaker 1>Now you said it's temporary, Yeah, it's temporary. The entire

0:33:11.240 --> 0:33:16.960
<v Speaker 1>personal income tax side of twenty seventeen reform was temporary

0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:20.320
<v Speaker 1>and guess what, it just became permanent. So this is

0:33:20.360 --> 0:33:24.040
<v Speaker 1>the thing both parties tried to do. Democrats tried to

0:33:24.080 --> 0:33:27.280
<v Speaker 1>do it with build back better you know, if something

0:33:27.360 --> 0:33:32.160
<v Speaker 1>is expensive. They passed these changes in law that's temporary

0:33:32.280 --> 0:33:37.040
<v Speaker 1>changes fully hoping and planning to make them permanent, because

0:33:37.600 --> 0:33:40.800
<v Speaker 1>not making them permanent, you could argue, is a tax increase.

0:33:41.240 --> 0:33:43.600
<v Speaker 2>And what about some of the promises that Trump made,

0:33:43.760 --> 0:33:45.640
<v Speaker 2>like no tax on tips.

0:33:46.000 --> 0:33:49.200
<v Speaker 1>Yes, it's also temporary, but it's enacted. There will be

0:33:49.240 --> 0:33:51.520
<v Speaker 1>no tax on tips. How much money is going to

0:33:51.600 --> 0:33:55.960
<v Speaker 1>save is a question. You need to remember that about

0:33:56.120 --> 0:34:01.680
<v Speaker 1>forty percent of taxpayers they know federal income tax, and

0:34:01.720 --> 0:34:04.040
<v Speaker 1>that's what we're talking about here, we're talking about changes

0:34:04.080 --> 0:34:07.200
<v Speaker 1>in federal income tax law. So about forty percent being

0:34:07.440 --> 0:34:10.640
<v Speaker 1>no federal income tax at all, and so no tax

0:34:10.680 --> 0:34:14.040
<v Speaker 1>on tips means nothing to them. Then of course it

0:34:14.120 --> 0:34:18.120
<v Speaker 1>won't surprise you that the compliance rate on reporting kIPS

0:34:18.280 --> 0:34:20.920
<v Speaker 1>is not super high. So some people who are not

0:34:21.080 --> 0:34:23.680
<v Speaker 1>reporting any kIPS even though they get them, you know,

0:34:23.880 --> 0:34:25.600
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't matter for them that there's going to be

0:34:25.600 --> 0:34:27.600
<v Speaker 1>no tax on chips. But for some people it will

0:34:28.040 --> 0:34:30.480
<v Speaker 1>and it feels good, you know, if you're getting kIPS.

0:34:30.600 --> 0:34:32.799
<v Speaker 1>But there's like this new rule that you don't have

0:34:32.840 --> 0:34:36.160
<v Speaker 1>to pay tax. It's also temporary. So just like this

0:34:36.440 --> 0:34:39.880
<v Speaker 1>state in local tax xtra reduction is going to expire,

0:34:40.440 --> 0:34:42.440
<v Speaker 1>I think by the end of twenty eight and then

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:45.080
<v Speaker 1>those see it's going to be the same game again

0:34:45.120 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 1>and again that not extending, it will be a tax increase.

0:34:48.360 --> 0:34:52.600
<v Speaker 2>And what about no taxes on Social Security? That didn't happen,

0:34:52.640 --> 0:34:52.920
<v Speaker 2>did it?

0:34:53.440 --> 0:34:56.760
<v Speaker 1>No, that did not happen. I'll tell you something happened.

0:34:57.239 --> 0:35:02.040
<v Speaker 1>But whatever happened definitely is not no tax on Social Security.

0:35:02.160 --> 0:35:07.240
<v Speaker 1>What happened is that seniors get an extra deduction six thousand,

0:35:07.680 --> 0:35:12.319
<v Speaker 1>double for married couples. Extra deduction. Now, what does it

0:35:12.400 --> 0:35:14.920
<v Speaker 1>mean in terms of Social Security? And seniors are people

0:35:14.960 --> 0:35:17.960
<v Speaker 1>who get Social Security most of them, So a lot

0:35:18.000 --> 0:35:21.839
<v Speaker 1>of people who already get Social Security now are part

0:35:21.880 --> 0:35:24.880
<v Speaker 1>of that forty percent that don't owe any federal income taxes.

0:35:25.000 --> 0:35:29.000
<v Speaker 1>So a deduction is useless if you don't owe any tax.

0:35:29.239 --> 0:35:32.360
<v Speaker 1>For some people who do pay some taxes, this deduction

0:35:33.000 --> 0:35:38.520
<v Speaker 1>will possibly reduce or possibly eliminate the tax, so for

0:35:38.560 --> 0:35:42.000
<v Speaker 1>them it's going to be a valuable deduction. But it's

0:35:42.040 --> 0:35:45.879
<v Speaker 1>not specifically tied to Social Security income. And for some

0:35:45.960 --> 0:35:48.760
<v Speaker 1>people who paid a lot of money into the system

0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:52.480
<v Speaker 1>and received pretty or maybe have some other sources of income,

0:35:52.920 --> 0:35:56.319
<v Speaker 1>they will take a deduction of extra six thousand and

0:35:56.600 --> 0:35:59.320
<v Speaker 1>will still low tax. So there's no rule that says

0:35:59.360 --> 0:36:01.200
<v Speaker 1>social secure the income is not subject.

0:36:01.560 --> 0:36:05.440
<v Speaker 2>I've been hearing from people who have heavy student loan debt,

0:36:05.800 --> 0:36:10.879
<v Speaker 2>usually medical school or graduate school debt, complaining about what

0:36:10.960 --> 0:36:13.560
<v Speaker 2>this bill does, what have they changed there?

0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:18.640
<v Speaker 1>So they definitely may changes to long repaining programs. They're complicated,

0:36:19.040 --> 0:36:21.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean it depends on what kind of loans these are,

0:36:21.920 --> 0:36:24.440
<v Speaker 1>It depends on the kinds of jobs people do, and

0:36:24.480 --> 0:36:27.399
<v Speaker 1>it also depends on how much money people learned. These

0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:34.560
<v Speaker 1>changes affect people whose loan payments were reduced because their

0:36:35.160 --> 0:36:39.120
<v Speaker 1>incomes were sufficiently low. So doctors are not the first

0:36:39.120 --> 0:36:41.279
<v Speaker 1>people who come to mind when you think about this,

0:36:41.640 --> 0:36:45.000
<v Speaker 1>But for people whose incomes are fairly low, you know,

0:36:45.560 --> 0:36:49.920
<v Speaker 1>for some of them, loan repayments under the old program

0:36:50.120 --> 0:36:53.399
<v Speaker 1>were just eliminated basically as long as the income is law,

0:36:53.600 --> 0:36:57.040
<v Speaker 1>and that has gone away, so as I understand that

0:36:57.040 --> 0:37:00.759
<v Speaker 1>there will be either many fewer or no people who

0:37:00.880 --> 0:37:04.759
<v Speaker 1>owe student loan payments who will be allowed to pay

0:37:04.800 --> 0:37:07.520
<v Speaker 1>nothing at all. But I think the minimum payment from

0:37:07.520 --> 0:37:10.600
<v Speaker 1>what I've seen, is something like ten dollars a month,

0:37:10.840 --> 0:37:14.880
<v Speaker 1>So it's more of an instrument for the government like

0:37:14.960 --> 0:37:20.040
<v Speaker 1>to know who owes something than a real payment. Ten dollars,

0:37:20.080 --> 0:37:23.320
<v Speaker 1>I think is a pretty phenomenal amount. That's one big

0:37:23.400 --> 0:37:26.320
<v Speaker 1>change in student loan repayment. I'm sure there are others,

0:37:26.360 --> 0:37:28.400
<v Speaker 1>but these are complex programs.

0:37:28.600 --> 0:37:30.280
<v Speaker 2>Is it still a boon to businesses?

0:37:30.760 --> 0:37:36.520
<v Speaker 1>So yes, there are new deductions very favorable basically allowing

0:37:36.560 --> 0:37:40.800
<v Speaker 1>businesses to subtract what they pay on equipment, and also

0:37:40.840 --> 0:37:43.000
<v Speaker 1>on R and B. You know, if a business buy

0:37:43.080 --> 0:37:46.200
<v Speaker 1>the machine that's going to last ten years or twenty years,

0:37:46.840 --> 0:37:52.239
<v Speaker 1>the economic depreciation lasts for twenty years. The value of

0:37:52.280 --> 0:37:55.759
<v Speaker 1>the machine gradually declines with where and care. But these

0:37:55.800 --> 0:38:02.040
<v Speaker 1>provisions allow subtraction immediately of whatever is spent the equipment

0:38:02.080 --> 0:38:05.480
<v Speaker 1>and also on R and B. The argument where this

0:38:05.600 --> 0:38:11.320
<v Speaker 1>is not terrible is that it's supposed to be promoting

0:38:11.440 --> 0:38:16.320
<v Speaker 1>economic growth. Right, so if businesses can invest in equipment

0:38:16.440 --> 0:38:20.279
<v Speaker 1>and this and that long lived asset and take deductions

0:38:20.360 --> 0:38:24.000
<v Speaker 1>right away, it makes it more profitable for the business

0:38:24.080 --> 0:38:27.839
<v Speaker 1>to do so, so they will do the investment, they

0:38:27.880 --> 0:38:30.160
<v Speaker 1>will invest in research and so on. So that's the

0:38:30.239 --> 0:38:36.120
<v Speaker 1>standard economic rationale for allowing this generous deduction. It's basically

0:38:36.120 --> 0:38:40.960
<v Speaker 1>a subsidy. It's not reflecting economic deterioration. The counter argument

0:38:41.400 --> 0:38:45.600
<v Speaker 1>is that this is a subsidy for equipment like long

0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:50.480
<v Speaker 1>lasting equipment, and long lasting equipment these days is robots,

0:38:50.680 --> 0:38:54.279
<v Speaker 1>and so this is a tax incentive. And you know,

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:58.480
<v Speaker 1>the machines are replacing people increasingly, so maybe it's not

0:38:58.600 --> 0:39:02.640
<v Speaker 1>a good idea to facilitate them. And further replacements of

0:39:02.680 --> 0:39:05.880
<v Speaker 1>people by machine. So that's sort of a more recent

0:39:06.040 --> 0:39:10.400
<v Speaker 1>concern that this bill does not address and intact makes

0:39:10.640 --> 0:39:12.280
<v Speaker 1>more serious.

0:39:12.160 --> 0:39:15.359
<v Speaker 2>The rise of AI. Can't get away from it. There

0:39:15.360 --> 0:39:18.120
<v Speaker 2>were a lot of promises made with the last tax

0:39:18.160 --> 0:39:22.399
<v Speaker 2>bill passed during Trump's first administration. What was the real

0:39:22.440 --> 0:39:23.640
<v Speaker 2>effect of the last bill?

0:39:23.880 --> 0:39:27.959
<v Speaker 1>There was nothing like, nothing like what Republicans were saying

0:39:27.960 --> 0:39:33.040
<v Speaker 1>in twenty seventeen. There was some economic growth in nominal terms,

0:39:33.040 --> 0:39:35.839
<v Speaker 1>meaning if you just look at dollars that was attributed

0:39:35.880 --> 0:39:38.719
<v Speaker 1>to the exchanges, and I think if you look at

0:39:38.760 --> 0:39:42.640
<v Speaker 1>the growth of the economy as percentage of growth domestic product,

0:39:42.719 --> 0:39:45.880
<v Speaker 1>they basically was not. So again, you know, there are

0:39:46.000 --> 0:39:50.359
<v Speaker 1>many ways to do this estimates and democratic economists and

0:39:50.480 --> 0:39:56.279
<v Speaker 1>Republican economists again come out with predictable differences. But it

0:39:56.400 --> 0:39:59.920
<v Speaker 1>was pretty clear then, I mean, there was really no significant,

0:40:00.160 --> 0:40:03.319
<v Speaker 1>serious doubts that the growth effects are not going to

0:40:03.320 --> 0:40:06.360
<v Speaker 1>be large, and they weren't, and so it's going to

0:40:06.360 --> 0:40:09.360
<v Speaker 1>be the same this time. Well, of course this comes

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<v Speaker 1>on top of massive threat of tariffs that are really

0:40:13.400 --> 0:40:16.880
<v Speaker 1>bad for growth. So you know, like this is hardly

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<v Speaker 1>a Congress and the president for super focused on economic growth.

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<v Speaker 2>And that may be an understatement, we'll see. Thanks so

0:40:23.719 --> 0:40:24.440
<v Speaker 2>much for joining me.

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<v Speaker 4>Alex.

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<v Speaker 2>That's Professor Alex Raskolnikov of Columbia Law School. And that's

0:40:29.440 --> 0:40:32.040
<v Speaker 2>it for this edition of The Bloomberg Law Show. Remember

0:40:32.080 --> 0:40:34.160
<v Speaker 2>you can always get the latest legal news on our

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Law Podcast. You can find them on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

0:40:38.520 --> 0:40:43.560
<v Speaker 2>and at www dot bloomberg dot com slash podcast Slash Law,

0:40:43.960 --> 0:40:46.560
<v Speaker 2>and remember to tune into The Bloomberg Law Show every

0:40:46.600 --> 0:40:50.520
<v Speaker 2>weeknight at ten pm Wall Street Time. I'm Junie Grosso

0:40:50.640 --> 0:40:52.239
<v Speaker 2>and you're listening to Bloomberg