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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is b JOEYP Joe Pizafia with

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Speaker 1: me of course is the Welsh. And today's show we

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Speaker 1: had a task set upon us, which was trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out the players right now in Major League Baseball

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Speaker 1: for fantasy drafts that the experts quote unquote are really

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Speaker 1: in on. So how do we do that? Right? A

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Speaker 1: lot of people like to call themselves experts, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of people fancy themselves smarter than they are. Welsh

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Speaker 1: and myself sometimes being two of those people. However, I

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Speaker 1: thought a good approach to this show would be to

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Speaker 1: take a look at some of the drafts and some

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Speaker 1: of the ADP going on in the NFBC and compare

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Speaker 1: it to the average, because I'm sure that most people

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Speaker 1: watch these shows are not playing in the big high

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Speaker 1: stakes leagues. They're casual fantasy baseball players. Maybe some of

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Speaker 1: you are playing in NFBC leagues, and that is also

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Speaker 1: an ADP you're aware of already. But I think what

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Speaker 1: you can glean from some of this Welsh is when

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Speaker 1: you see some of the players that are a little

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Speaker 1: bit higher than the average ADP consensus that you get

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Speaker 1: between Yahoo and ESPN and CBS. It is a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a flag going up on a player that hey,

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Speaker 1: maybe you should bump this player up on your rankings,

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Speaker 1: or maybe we could figure out why some of these

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Speaker 1: experts and these people that pay big money to be

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Speaker 1: in some of these fantasy baseball leagues are actually chasing

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Speaker 1: some of this talent. And I know that this is

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Speaker 1: kind of a living, breathing beast too, right, These ADPs

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Speaker 1: are changing every single day, every single weekend is more

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Speaker 1: news breaks. And we also know that NFBC ADP is

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Speaker 1: also a little skewed right catchers, relief pitchers tend to

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Speaker 1: go a little higher because of the format in which

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Speaker 1: those leagues are run. But Wels to me, this seemed

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Speaker 1: like the best way to look at some of the

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Speaker 1: players on the board and maybe just highlights some players

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Speaker 1: that we haven't discussed too much on the show so

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Speaker 1: far in the preseason.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, NFBC is always it's another tool in the tool belt,

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Speaker 2: whether you play or you don't play. NFPC is just

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Speaker 2: one of those tools that you can go in look

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Speaker 2: and you're going to have. Obviously, the high stakes people

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Speaker 2: are going to push certain other players, and it's going

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Speaker 2: to be some strategies and there, you know, I think

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Speaker 2: there's things to pull from it, and there's conversations to

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Speaker 2: be had, and it's an interesting list of some of

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Speaker 2: the guys. There's a couple guys that we have talked

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Speaker 2: about that we've really liked that are going higher in NFBC.

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Speaker 2: There's some players that I think have gotten like almost

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Speaker 2: none to Little Runway as far as just as many

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Speaker 2: conversations as we can have. And yeah, seeing who is

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Speaker 2: going higher in NFBC than the aggregate average ADP we

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Speaker 2: have here at Fantasy pros. It's a good experiment and

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Speaker 2: it definitely is the experts love of some of these guys,

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Speaker 2: and a few of these guys, like I said, we

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Speaker 2: also love as well.

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Speaker 1: All Right, before we get to the names on the

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Speaker 1: list today, don't forget subscribe to the channel. We are

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Speaker 1: so close to thirty thousand subscribers. Well, what are we

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Speaker 1: doing for thirty thousand this year? I don't know what

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Speaker 1: our costumes last year, Marian Luigi the year before we

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Speaker 1: had the the eighties mullets. I don't know. I feel

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Speaker 1: like we haven't discussed this. If you've got ideas, drop

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Speaker 1: them in the comments when you subscribe, because you might

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Speaker 1: win yourself. Our latest giveaway from Trophy s Mack and

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Speaker 1: as the Black Fantasy Baseball Trophy from Trophies Smack, the

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Speaker 1: number one destination for epic fantasy sports hardware. The stunning

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Speaker 1: a nineteen year perpetual base. If you want twenty years,

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Speaker 1: too bad, you don't get it. It's not just a prize,

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Speaker 1: it's a legacy piece. Also, it's available right now for

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Speaker 1: free if you just subscribe to the channel and drop

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Speaker 1: your comments below. What should we do to celebrate the

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Speaker 1: thirty thousand subscribers. So we are just on the doors

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Speaker 1: that we are so close to it right now Welsh,

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Speaker 1: So let's get there and don't forget to ring the

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Speaker 1: bell to it goes dang, so we can let you

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Speaker 1: know if you're the winner of the big giant trophy.

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Speaker 1: And of course you never miss a piece of content

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Speaker 1: on Fantasy pros MLB. This year we've got even more

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Speaker 1: short form videos, even more leading off for you, even

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Speaker 1: more YouTube live streams. We're gonna be on the twitch

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Speaker 1: to live doing leading off every single day. Starting very

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Speaker 1: soon again, that's twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy Pros. That's

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Speaker 1: the place to be to watch leading off live and

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Speaker 1: if you miss it, you can always check it out

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Speaker 1: on demand on YouTube. Let's start with zach Netto. Now,

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Speaker 1: his Fantasy Pros average consensus ADP is thirty three point two.

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Speaker 1: We see it's a little bit higher. It's twenty seven. Now,

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Speaker 1: I know that's not enormously higher, but it is worth noting.

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Speaker 1: And I did a side by side comparison, so I

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Speaker 1: tried to pick up ones that I thought had interesting variance,

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Speaker 1: Welsh and guys that I thought were intriguing to talk about.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the ATC projections for him, twenty

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Speaker 1: seven homers, eighty six runs, seventy five RBI. They're also

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Speaker 1: looking at potentially somewhere around twenty seven stolen bases. So

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Speaker 1: there's projections here saying that you know, you can actually

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Speaker 1: have zach Netto starting to sniff a thirty thirty season,

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Speaker 1: and based off of the trajectory the last couple of years,

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's a difficult thing to buy. I

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Speaker 1: feel like zach Netto gets forgotten a little bit because

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Speaker 1: he's an angel and because there's just not a lot

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Speaker 1: of focus on that squad right now, but Nedo is

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Speaker 1: an incredibly important piece of that lineup, and I feel

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Speaker 1: like in fantasy is still somebody that, despite the fact

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Speaker 1: that he is a top fifty player, he's not somebody

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Speaker 1: that gets discussed a whole lot.

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Speaker 2: Going back to what you said, where you know it's

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Speaker 2: not that far off of a thirty thirty, it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: because he just almost did it last year in one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty eight games. He was twenty six homers,

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Speaker 2: twenty six stolen bases. The year before twenty three homers,

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Speaker 2: thirty stolen bases. He had within zero point ten batting

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Speaker 2: average points between those two years. So I think what

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Speaker 2: that builds up to is drafters are looking and they're

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Speaker 2: seeing just kind of a floor shortstop who's actually still

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Speaker 2: got a lot more runway. You know, if you were

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Speaker 2: to extrapolate that's it's an easy thirty thirty season he

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Speaker 2: had last year. The batting average seems relatively stable. It's

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Speaker 2: really just been about injuries in him being out there

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Speaker 2: for games, and you know he did put up one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty five the year prior, So I think

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Speaker 2: what you're looking at is anytime you can get a

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty guy that represents some type of a floor

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Speaker 2: that's exciting. Something I did on NFBC. You can sort

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Speaker 2: the different time frames. I sorted March first in their

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Speaker 2: Draft Champions, which is like two hundred and fifty plus leagues.

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Speaker 2: He's actually going a little bit lower than this one,

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Speaker 2: also at thirty. But interestingly enough, the high pick, the

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Speaker 2: highest he ever went they'll call the men, is seventeen.

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Speaker 2: So someone was taking him as like almost a first

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Speaker 2: round pick. And I think that that solely comes from

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Speaker 2: you being able to put thirty thirty guys together, and

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Speaker 2: that's just not something you can find in tons of

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Speaker 2: other spots. I'd argue. The only thing with zach Neto is, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, if he's a two point fifty hitter and

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty, there are some other guys that you can

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Speaker 2: take risks that are going quite a bit later that

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Speaker 2: can provide pretty similar like stat frames and pretty similar floors,

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Speaker 2: Like if Trevor Story is going forty or fifty spots lower,

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Speaker 2: if that ends up happening, you know, he could be

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Speaker 2: a twenty twenty to twenty five to twenty five guy.

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Speaker 2: You know, there's quite a few other even non shortstops

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Speaker 2: that kind of represent this. But at the end of

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Speaker 2: the day, some of the high stakes guys are jumping

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Speaker 2: in this market because stolen bases are ultimately super valuable.

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Speaker 2: There's a floor on the batting average, and I think

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Speaker 2: what a lot of people are just sitting and living

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Speaker 2: on with Zach Nedo is that there is still more upside.

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Speaker 2: He's still twenty five years old. You feel like he's

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Speaker 2: still stepping in too, like you know, the big the

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Speaker 2: big season that's going to be for him, and there's

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Speaker 2: a pretty good hitting profile under the table. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I'm massively big on like a top thirty

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Speaker 2: Zach Netta. I'm not against it. I'm not for it.

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Speaker 2: I'm just a little bit indifferent about it. But it's

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Speaker 2: surprising to see that, like in the NFCPC, he's going

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Speaker 2: higher in this spot than he is in any other

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Speaker 2: average because shortstop is also like one of the deepest

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Speaker 2: positions out there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if it was second base, I think it will

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Speaker 1: make more sense. What does a shortstop? He kind of

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Speaker 1: look at it and go it's a little especially you're

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Speaker 1: getting a little bit of a discount you know, Lindor

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Speaker 1: fell a little bit, you know, and only drafts and

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Speaker 1: some other shortstops as well.

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Speaker 2: Lindor going after Netto and yeah, like even though it

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Speaker 2: looks like you said.

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Speaker 1: It seems like he's all right. I mean, Corbyn Carroll

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Speaker 1: had the same surgery. He had a home run yesterday

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Speaker 1: and spring so again, I'm just hopeful that these guys

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Speaker 1: who have the handmade pony SHOs will be okay. The

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Speaker 1: one guy that it's funny. It's like Carol, Lindor, don't worry,

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Speaker 1: everything's fine. Jaxson Holiday shadow room, like you should never

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Speaker 1: see him again. I don't understand that, doll.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a little bit less news about like him

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Speaker 2: being able to be for opening day, like Lindor and

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Speaker 2: Carrol are all but set to.

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Speaker 1: Be there for as a younger guy too, Like, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, young bones as old folks, we're the ones

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Speaker 1: who are supposed to heal very well.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, tell me about it.

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Speaker 1: Unless there's something else with that one that's different than

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Speaker 1: the others that they're not telling us about, which would

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Speaker 1: not be the first time that's happened either.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we're making about Jackson Holiday now, not Netto

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Speaker 2: but I'm all for that. I think there's definite strategy

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Speaker 2: in a position that I don't think is strong that

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Speaker 2: you can take Holiday when because his ADP is like

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Speaker 2: outside the top one fifty and you pair him with

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Speaker 2: a little bit more of a boring guy if you

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Speaker 2: want to go Jorge Polonko if you want, and then.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna stop gap like Kaboierro or somebody like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm saying, stop gap guys until Holiday

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Speaker 2: is there there. You know, second base is kind of eh,

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Speaker 2: so I you know, you want to be careful about it,

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Speaker 2: but I think you can do it. But that also

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Speaker 2: comes to the same I mean, I suppose, like if

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Speaker 2: you can make that argument for a position you don't love,

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Speaker 2: and I can actually make the argument for third base,

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Speaker 2: that you then don't have to start having the argument

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Speaker 2: where you don't draft a Zachnetto because he's in a

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Speaker 2: really deep position. You want to just draft the best players,

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Speaker 2: which I ultimately completely agree with. That's the thing that

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Speaker 2: you want to do. But there's a pretty high cost.

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Speaker 2: It's a surprisingly high cost. It's not surprising when you

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Speaker 2: think of like a thirty thirty guy. It is surprising

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Speaker 2: when you think, I don't know if there's a big

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Speaker 2: ceiling on his batting average, runs and RBIs are a

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Speaker 2: little capped on that team, So it actually is a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a goofy one when you think about it.

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Speaker 2: But if you're looking for twenty five to twenty five plus,

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Speaker 2: Zachnetto's your guy.

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Speaker 1: Ben Rice number two on our list we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk about today. In regular FP average sixty fourth overall ADP,

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Speaker 1: but in NFBC forty seven. Now, of course the catcher

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Speaker 1: eligibility matters a lot, and of course he gets bumped

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Speaker 1: up because he's playing every day. But the other caveat

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Speaker 1: I wanted to mention here about aggression with Ben Rice,

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Speaker 1: which is a player that I liked quite a bit

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Speaker 1: because I had seen him play in person a bunch

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Speaker 1: at Summerset. I reported back to the well, she's like,

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Speaker 1: would you think of Specer Jones? I was like, I'd

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Speaker 1: rather talk about Ben Rice, And that was my exact

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Speaker 1: comment to you in that conversation. But he's also slated

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Speaker 1: to hit clean up in this order, after Judge and

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Speaker 1: Bellinger and in front of Stanton. So I thought that

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Speaker 1: was a very intriguing thing too, because He's in a

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Speaker 1: great spot for runs, great spot for RBI, good ballpark

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Speaker 1: for power. I think people should be paying a little

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Speaker 1: bit more attention to ben Rise. Obviously in two catcher

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Speaker 1: leagues they are, but even in single catcher leagues, the

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Speaker 1: fact that he's playing every day, we just don't get

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Speaker 1: a lot of that anymore.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this one, I mean, this one is

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Speaker 2: like clearly skewed to NFBC catcher stuff. That's the only

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Speaker 2: thing you mentioned at the top. It also kind of

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Speaker 2: the catcher and relief pitcher thing can also end up

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Speaker 2: skewing ADPs slightly because like they're gonna go higher, which

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Speaker 2: is inherently going to move some player. That didn't really

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Speaker 2: happen with netto. But we now start to activate the

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Speaker 2: range where like if a guy is only like, you know,

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Speaker 2: two or three spots off of ADPs, you know NFPC

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Speaker 2: versus where whatever the aggregate is, that might just simply

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Speaker 2: be because you know, the relief pitchers that end up

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Speaker 2: getting pushed up. But ben Ry said, do you think

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Speaker 2: it's a special case. I've said this quite a few times.

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Speaker 2: I think I know you you know this that I agree,

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Speaker 2: Like I'm not into drafting catchers super high in any spot,

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Speaker 2: especially single catchers. But Ben Rice is an anomaly. His

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Speaker 2: hitting profile is absolutely absurd from last year, like that

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Speaker 2: hasn't changed. Fifteen percent barrel, fifty six percent hard hit rate.

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Speaker 2: Those were some of the best numbers in the league.

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Speaker 2: He was able to in under five hundred bats, hit

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Speaker 2: twenty six homers. So if he's going to be the

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Speaker 2: everyday first baseman and he's going to be out there

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Speaker 2: and get five hundred and fifty to six hundred bats,

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Speaker 2: he is, you know, knocking on the thirty home run

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Speaker 2: to thirty five home run door. Whether that's at first

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Speaker 2: base or catcher, it doesn't really matter. So I'm actually

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Speaker 2: I'm down with this. The little problem he has is

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Speaker 2: like there's still a lot of good first basemen there

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Speaker 2: out there. I find it hard if you just take

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Speaker 2: off the catching and you just look at him as

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Speaker 2: a first baseman. Can I take Ben Rice like twenty

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Speaker 2: spots higher than Vinie pass Quentino or ten spots higher

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Speaker 2: than nailor I can't because I think.

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Speaker 1: It's super valuable, and I don't think the point of

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Speaker 1: the show is to say you should do that. My

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Speaker 1: point is, hey, if you get him at sixty it's

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Speaker 1: a value and I think that or there's upside, like

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Speaker 1: you said, if you get him at your corner guy,

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Speaker 1: or if you're in that first base or you miss

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Speaker 1: out on that first base run. I should say because

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Speaker 1: first base is pretty top at you like you're missing

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Speaker 1: on those runs where all the elite guys going around

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Speaker 1: or two and you're kind of looking around. Maybe you

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Speaker 1: do let it push a little bit. Maybe you end

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Speaker 1: up with a Ben Rice and then Michael Bush later

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Speaker 1: on and you're playing with one at the corner spot.

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Speaker 1: I think that the point is, hey, guess what, a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are high on this guy in NFBC.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to take him at forty something. You

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Speaker 1: could take him at sixty something, and it might be

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Speaker 1: a good investment to pay attention to.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would throw out the numbers. I

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Speaker 2: think that's the most important thing for me, the ADP,

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Speaker 2: because I'm not gonna say, like, and he's at sixty,

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Speaker 2: he's a good deal. It's more important to me Naylor

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Speaker 2: and Vinnie Pascentino are off the board. Ben Rice is

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Speaker 2: an absolute target, and I am not afraid to put

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Speaker 2: him as a first baseman at all. If that run

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Speaker 2: does happen, and he gives you that extra flexibility that

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Speaker 2: you can put him at catcher and you could, you know,

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Speaker 2: he could be the best catch first basement on the board,

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Speaker 2: and then you could find a value just like exactly

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Speaker 2: like you said, if you get like a Michael Busch

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Speaker 2: a little bit later, and now you can kind of move.

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Speaker 2: You could put Ben Rice a catcher if you want.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, you definitely NFBC makes it bigger in your

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Speaker 2: face because he is a catcher and they push him higher.

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Speaker 2: But Ben Rice can absolutely be a starting first basement

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Speaker 2: in fantasy if some of those guys are gone, given

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Speaker 2: a ton of extra playing time, and if you just

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Speaker 2: want to have as you would say, like an RPV

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Speaker 2: advantage relative player value advantage at that position, Ben Rice

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Speaker 2: is one of the few players that I do think

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Speaker 2: actually provides that because he is playing every day, and especially.

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Speaker 1: Heads and head to head formats, especially because you're talking

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Speaker 1: about extra at bats every week, more productivity everyone you're

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Speaker 1: talking about. He's going to pay two more games probably

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Speaker 1: every week than a normal catcher, potentially depending on the schedule.

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Speaker 1: Falls Number three on our list. CJ. Abrams is NFBC

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Speaker 1: fifty seven ADP is ten spots higher than the average

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Speaker 1: right now, which is at sixty seven point eight on

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pro. So cj Abrams obviously, you know, a polarizing

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Speaker 1: player for many people. In terms of age, He's just

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Speaker 1: twenty five years old, so still some growth left. Potentially,

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Speaker 1: he's coming off basically back to back twenty thirty seasons.

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Speaker 1: Last year hit in nineteen hver runs on twenty. But

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Speaker 1: we'll give him a pass on that. The batting AVERAGEAMS

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Speaker 1: will be somewhere in the fifty range. Although he did

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Speaker 1: score ninety two runs last year, which is up significantly

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Speaker 1: from the seventy nine year before. He did miss some

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Speaker 1: time in twenty twenty four, So a healthy cj Abrams

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Speaker 1: a focus cj Abrams it seems to be again a

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Speaker 1: power speed combination guy that's a little suppressed in ADP

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Speaker 1: because I think there's some negativity attached to the player.

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Speaker 1: But this is business, not personal. So do you think

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Speaker 1: that cj Abrams is a little too low in the

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Speaker 1: current consens's ADP for his skill set and what he offers,

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Speaker 1: despite the fact that chort Stop, as you mentioned before,

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Speaker 1: is a little deep.

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Speaker 2: I don't I don't think he's too low. But this

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Speaker 2: this connects to the netto thing. And I don't think

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Speaker 2: you can play this game too much where you can go, well,

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna take this player because you can get

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Speaker 2: this play later. And now I'm not gonna take this player,

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Speaker 2: and you keep doing this thing where you're never taking

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Speaker 2: the good guy because you're like, well this guy can

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Speaker 2: blah blah blah. But you can have that argument when

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Speaker 2: you're talking about someone that's in the thirties and the

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Speaker 2: forties and the fifties. That argument, to me starts to

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Speaker 2: die when you're like, well, I want to take this

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Speaker 2: guy at eighty. Overall, it kind of like the Kyle

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Speaker 2: Steuers thing with the rico, Like I don't want to

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Speaker 2: take him because I could take a guy fifty spots later.

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Speaker 2: It's like, we'll take both of them. When you're talking

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Speaker 2: about your second or third round guy, that's a different thing.

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Speaker 2: This is this is like rinse and repeat. I think

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Speaker 2: it's another really high stolen base. You got to understand

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Speaker 2: the value of stolen bases and keeping up with the Joneses.

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Speaker 2: He's a similar batting average profile. You know, he hits

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Speaker 2: around two forty two to fifty he's going to be

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Speaker 2: really good in runs he had ninety two runs last year,

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Speaker 2: really good in stolen bases. Homer's and RBI are okay,

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Speaker 2: Batting average okay, So that's like a five tool player

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Speaker 2: who doesn't really hurt you in any category. What I

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Speaker 2: do think happens with CJ. Abrams is people are just disinterested.

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Speaker 2: He is not exciting, he's not flashy, but he is

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Speaker 2: a guy who every single year can go fifteen to

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Speaker 2: thirty with that two fifty batting average and ninety runs.

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Speaker 2: And I think there is plenty of value for that.

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Speaker 2: But is he going too high? It's the same argument.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk about a short stop that's going

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Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred that can put up similar

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Speaker 2: seasons to both of these guys at a super deep

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Speaker 2: position that unless I think the upside is forty plus

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Speaker 2: stolen bases and I want to go down that route,

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Speaker 2: I don't feel necessarily compelled. I think people in these

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Speaker 2: leagues are compelled because they do not want to fall

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Speaker 2: back on stolen bases, and I think that's what pushes

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Speaker 2: a guy like CJ. Abrams up his hitting profile. It's

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Speaker 2: not super exciting. He doesn't hit the ball hard. He

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Speaker 2: does get the ball in the air and maximizes homers.

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Speaker 2: He obviously had the weird gambling stuff at the end

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Speaker 2: of last year. I am not overtly excited about cj Abrams,

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Speaker 2: but I understand the logic of why he goes in

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Speaker 2: here and why experts might be drafting him a little

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Speaker 2: bit higher. It becomes more about team. I think cj

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Speaker 2: Abrams is exactly the idea of team construction versus I

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Speaker 2: have to have this player. Sometimes you have to have

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Speaker 2: this player because they're so good for your team. I

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Speaker 2: think cj Abrams is like, oh, I need ninety. He

385
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Speaker 2: runs in forty stolen based potential with some homers, and

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Speaker 2: then he fits that mold well.

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Speaker 1: I think if you draft a guy like Pete Alonzo

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Speaker 1: and your a little light on steals, you look around,

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Speaker 1: you go, oh, Cee j Abrams, you know. I think

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Speaker 1: he's a pivot to the slugging first basement in the

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Speaker 1: second third round that you end up with and you're

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Speaker 1: a little light and soul and base to C. J

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Speaker 1: Abrams is a good pivot. Also a good pivot this year. Oh,

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Speaker 1: let me that such a good transition. You got it?

395
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:26,640
Speaker 1: That was so good fan Tracks all with Fantasy sports

396
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 1: right now. If you're looking for a fun in your

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Speaker 1: fantasy baseball league, year round engagement, three hundred and sixty

398
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 1: five days a year. They never closed down like some

399
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Speaker 1: other places. They have automated salaries and contracts and all

400
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,600
Speaker 1: your dynasty league so you can orchestrate them all like

401
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 1: a pro. And of course if you're looking for customization,

402
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 1: there's no better place than fan Tracks. I just recommended

403
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 1: somebody there yesterday. He was asking, Hey, you know, ESPN's

404
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 1: not doing it for me with this league. He was

405
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,200
Speaker 1: saying to me, is my buddy Johnny's like, can I recommendations?

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Speaker 1: We're trying to do some more specific things, and I said, hey,

407
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Speaker 1: try fan Tracks and there you go, and he moved

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Speaker 1: the league over there. So I don't get a commission

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Speaker 1: on that, but that's okay. I just want people to

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00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 1: be happy, and I want you to be happy. So

411
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:05,640
Speaker 1: bring your fantasy Baseball league to fan Tracks for an

412
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,719
Speaker 1: unbeatable user experience. Side up today at fantracks dot com

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00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros. That's fantracks dot com says Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 1: Go ahead. Wesh, what did you want to say? Oh?

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Speaker 2: No, I was just gonna say, despite all the things

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Speaker 2: that we're talking about with cj. Abrams, it is interesting

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Speaker 2: that he is going quite a bit higher in NFBC

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Speaker 2: versus the aggregate ADP when he kind of is an

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Speaker 2: ant player and you start incorporating catchers and relief pitchers.

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Speaker 2: I think this one the signals are a little bit

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Speaker 2: louder that not every player does need to be super exciting.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes you just need to take your wins and CJ

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Speaker 2: Abrams despite some of the whatever deficiencies, like this dude

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Speaker 2: has essentially hit twenty homers and had thirty stolen bases

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Speaker 2: for three straight seasons. So's it sounds to twenty.

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Speaker 1: Thirty player who's turning twenty six. I mean, there could

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Speaker 1: be another gear in here where it's a thirty thirty

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Speaker 1: season and then we look around and go, oh wow,

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Speaker 1: we're thirty forty season potentially next guy. I even shut

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Speaker 1: up about so I said some players we haven't talked about,

431
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 1: we've talked a lot, or at least I have talked

432
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,120
Speaker 1: a lot about Euri Perez. I think the projections are nonsense.

433
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 1: The ATC projections have him for just one hundred and

434
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 1: forty innings and one hundred and sixty strikeouts. I think

435
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 1: he's gonna blow that out of the water. I just do.

436
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 1: And I'm not the only one to fix that, because

437
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 1: Euri Perez is going eighty ninth overall, the FP average

438
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 1: is about ninety five for him, so almost a whole

439
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,159
Speaker 1: round earlier. And I've actually seen some other leagues. I

440
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 1: don't know what the men is on Uri Perez, but

441
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 1: I guarantee you it's much higher. I guarantee you there's

442
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 1: people staking their claim because we have that show the

443
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,680
Speaker 1: other day Fantasy Draft Court. If you missed it, you

444
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,439
Speaker 1: can go check it out where we were talking about

445
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 1: Emi Chihan going as the eightieth picture off the board.

446
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 1: So I'm sure in some leagues Euri Perez is going

447
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 1: way higher than some of that, as he should be.

448
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Perez to be closer in that conversation,

449
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 1: you know, to the Garrett Crochets and Paul Skeins and

450
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,400
Speaker 1: Terry Schoobles in a year or so than I am

451
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 1: him looking at just being an okay picture, Like I

452
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 1: don't think he's okay. I think he's got potential to

453
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 1: be great, and I think you're gonna see that sooner

454
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 1: or later. Sure tomorrow are always going to limit his

455
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 1: win potential. But if you're in a quality start league,

456
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 1: you're in any head to add format. I think being

457
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 1: aggressive on Uri is a good thing. Curious did you

458
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,679
Speaker 1: find that number with his men is? What is it? So?

459
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 2: Again, want to mind you the main NFBC we're talking

460
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,679
Speaker 2: about is the overarching that Joe pold Of of ADP

461
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 2: for NFBC. I put it to March first using their

462
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 2: draft Champions Leagues, and that number is very interesting. First off,

463
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 2: the average is higher at eighty two, so that's like

464
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 2: half of a round higher than what the full thing is.

465
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 1: It's even more than eighty.

466
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,879
Speaker 2: Nine, that is, and a men of fifty nine, So

467
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: going fifty nine overall like that tell you look there, yeah,

468
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 2: and looking here to see if I could give some

469
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 2: like relative versions of that, Like that's as high, ah,

470
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,439
Speaker 2: I mean, that's as high as some significant hitters. That's

471
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 2: almost as high as George Kirby. George Kirby had a

472
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 2: min of forty six. You know, that's in that same

473
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 2: general range. Uri Perez is one of those guys I

474
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 2: did this last year with my like big bet where

475
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 2: I looked you looked at some of the obviously analy

476
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 2: as a player, but then if you look at projections

477
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,919
Speaker 2: and you go, man, these projections love this guy, but

478
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 2: all those innings pitched. And that's how I took advantage

479
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,880
Speaker 2: of Garrett Crochet because I was like, you gotta throw

480
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 2: the innings pitched down. I think the innings pitch projections

481
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 2: are maybe the worst thing that projections do. I think everything,

482
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 2: I think, there's so many other things are in tune,

483
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 2: but projecting the innings are not a great science in that.

484
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: And that won me that And I think you can

485
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 2: play this same thing over here. Now you can ask

486
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: yourself questions like is URI's you know the injury stuff?

487
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 2: Is that something to consider? Is this accounting properly? But

488
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,360
Speaker 2: if it's not accounting properly, one hundred and forty four

489
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 2: innings ATC has him as a twenty seven percent K percentage.

490
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 2: That's ten K per nine. When you see ten K

491
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 2: per nine, that's an elite number with a low walks

492
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 2: and you've got like in the threes era. So now

493
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 2: if you put that over one hundred and seven innings,

494
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 2: you're talking about a guy that's going to be a

495
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 2: top fifteen pitcher. That those K numbers are going to

496
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 2: go well over two hundred, the walk numbers are going

497
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 2: to sustain nicely, then Eury Perez is going to be

498
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 2: in a spot where probably gonna win like thirteen or

499
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: fourteen games. So I'm with you on this one. Like

500
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 2: Uri Perez, a is bigger on nfbc's overarching average than

501
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,479
Speaker 2: our consensus one and as of recent he's gone up

502
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 2: half of a round. This is an absolute signal. Target

503
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,719
Speaker 2: of experts love Euri Perez. Everyone's sneaking him in drafts,

504
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 2: and I agree that you should do the same with

505
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 2: those elite K numbers and a full season in front

506
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 2: of him.

507
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about Trevor Story, who mentioned him

508
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 1: earlier in the show. He's number five on this list.

509
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: The average Fantasy pros ADP is one seventeen. The NFBC

510
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: average is one oh three, So this is one of

511
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 1: the bigger jumps too. We know Trevor Story had a

512
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: great season last year. The batting average was higher than

513
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 1: anybody could have possibly imagine. Maybe the game's played. Also,

514
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: one goold argue was higher than people were anticipating. And

515
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 1: Trevor Story has been a difficult roster guy. The last

516
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: couple of years, there's been a lot of injuries. I

517
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: mean twenty three and twenty four were basically incomplete seasons.

518
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,919
Speaker 1: He played a combination of sixty games about and then

519
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: last year he played one hundred and fifty seven at

520
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 1: twenty five homers, drove in ninety six, were on scored

521
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 1: ninety one, had thirty one seals, hit two sixty three,

522
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,679
Speaker 1: which was the best park he's had since twenty twenty.

523
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 1: In a short season of COVID questions, are we buying

524
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 1: back in it? It seems like the experts are welsh.

525
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: Are you buying back into Trevor Story for twenty twenty six?

526
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean story was kind of my argument. Again,

527
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 2: I don't want to necessarily try to be making arguments

528
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,239
Speaker 2: about the same players we're talking about, But you know,

529
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 2: I think CJ. Abrams is a little bit different. There's

530
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 2: a much higher stolen base marker. But I'll be honest

531
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 2: with you. For me, when I look and I go,

532
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 2: do I need to pay a second round pick for

533
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 2: Zach Netto, who's a twenty five to twenty five maybe

534
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 2: a thirty thirty guy, Or can I go outside the

535
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: top one hundred and take a guy that that on

536
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 2: shorter game projections is around twenty twenty five in Trevor Story.

537
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 2: It's not a perfect one for one, but I think

538
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 2: the offensive environment is good. I think Trevor Story had

539
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 2: that healthy season which you're looking for in every projection

540
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: system says he's at least a twenty twenty guy. The

541
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 2: games played are a little bit of a question. Obviously,

542
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,479
Speaker 2: that's the whole thing. But the bat takes and uses

543
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 2: ATC's game projections and innings pitch, so they're going to

544
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 2: look similar. But you see ATC at twenty and twenty

545
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 2: two homers and stolen bases, the bat X twenty one

546
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: and twenty two had ninety. He had over ninety run

547
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 2: and RBI, and they're projecting him in the seventies. Why

548
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: the batting average, I think is like a slight dip.

549
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 2: But some of that doesn't make sense. I think Trevor

550
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 2: Story is an eighty eighty twenty twenty guy with a

551
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: two fifty average, and that's the baseline for him, and

552
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 2: I think at cost I see why we would want

553
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 2: to target him when you need to make sure you're

554
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 2: keeping up with the Joneses on stolen bases. He is

555
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: like a good, cheaper option on a great offense. And

556
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: I have always been down with doing this. I'm a

557
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 2: guy that will take shortstop and I'll take another shortstop

558
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 2: for my middle infield spot within the top two hundred.

559
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 2: I don't think that's a bad thing to do. In

560
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: this case. You could take Story and you could take CJ. Abrams.

561
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: You could commit the mid round and the Story pick.

562
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 2: That's sixty plus stolen bases, that's close to forty maybe

563
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 2: thirty five homers. I mean, those are two good players

564
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,360
Speaker 2: that lock in together. So yeah, Age, you know, there's

565
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 2: an age thing, there's an injury thing.

566
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 1: But he's getting very prime spot.

567
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 2: He's gonna a prime spot in the lineup. But I

568
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 2: see why he's being targeted because now we're getting into

569
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 2: like good Him and Urian Story are the guys that

570
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: are like anybody could draft.

571
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 1: Now. Yeah, I gotta be honest with you, I'm not

572
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: in on Story. There's too many injuries over the years.

573
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,439
Speaker 1: I just don't want to. I don't want to invest

574
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 1: in the big full season. I know what the big

575
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 1: full season from Trevor Story is. I've seen it before

576
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: in Colorado. I just haven't seen it in a long time,

577
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 1: and I'm just not buying it. I mean, Dansby Swanson

578
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: is like the next guy off the board of that

579
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: position basically, and he's gonna give me twenty two and

580
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: he's gonna be boring. And I also love to forty,

581
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: but I'm just thinking I think I'd rather invest on

582
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: him because it's gonna cause me less fab during the

583
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: year to replace, you know. I just that's my POV.

584
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: And the Cubs are a good offense, a good team too.

585
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: You know, he scored eighty four runs last year, eighty

586
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 1: two the year before eighty. So that that twenty eighty

587
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: eighty guy that you threw out there, that twenty twenty

588
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 1: eighty eighty guy, that's Dansby Swanson with a lot more

589
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: possibility of of or less games missed than Trevor's story.

590
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: That's my take on it, and I'll give everyone can

591
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: disagree on it. That's fine.

592
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I'll give you the injury thing because I

593
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 2: don't want to take that away. But you did do

594
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: the thing that I'm talking about where when we get

595
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 2: to the hundreds and we're like, well, I don't want

596
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 2: to take this guy because I can get the version

597
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,199
Speaker 2: of this guy a little bit later, it's like, well

598
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: take them both big. These are cheaper, it's harder to replace.

599
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 1: I mean, they're no an than it is. Story Well, actually,

600
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 1: now Swanson's a little.

601
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: Spots is going in the one to fifty going you

602
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 2: could take.

603
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 1: A year guy. No, they're back to back in terms

604
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: of overall like shortstop rankings on if the.

605
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 2: Injury is enough to make you go away from a player,

606
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna argue that if you don't want If

607
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 2: you think he played one hundred and fifty seven games

608
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 2: last year, so he has done it. But if you think,

609
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 2: oh that's the one outlier year and injuries, totally fine.

610
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 2: But from a performance standpoint, like there's a lot of

611
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 2: you know, like it's a really good environment. He's going

612
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 2: to be in a prime spot in the lineup. I

613
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 2: just don't kind of vibe with like not taking him

614
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 2: because you can get a ninety percent version a little bit,

615
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 2: I'll just take him.

616
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: I was like Jacob Wilson too late, Like there's a

617
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: bunch of short steps. I like late because if you

618
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 1: don't like batting average so much, well excuse me, you're

619
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: stolen runs. Well, sixteen runs las year in a short season.

620
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 2: I think I think he could. I think he could

621
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 2: have like another step breakout, but he is, Like a

622
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 2: best case scenario is what twenty homers, ten stolen bases,

623
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 2: You'll have a three hundred plus average and eighty eighty.

624
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 2: You know somewhere in that rate that's still really good.

625
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: But that's just a different type of player than then

626
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 2: why some of the industry people, as you're saying, are

627
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 2: targeting Trevor Story. Trevor Story is going more than a

628
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 2: round higher in NFBC versus the aggregate ADP, and that's

629
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: including all the relievers and stuff that are pushing up.

630
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 2: I mean that means that is a target because of

631
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: the stolen bases and probably because of like the relative

632
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 2: five hit profile you've built, the profile of what some

633
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 2: of the NFBC guys you're looking for then looking for

634
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 2: short shortstops are going higher in this platform because they

635
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: want those stolen bases that are attached to some power.

636
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: All right. Number six on the list Lewis Robert Junior,

637
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 1: one twenty consensus ADP, one eleven consensus ADP over an NFBC. Again,

638
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: not massive difference, but difference enough that I think it's

639
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,239
Speaker 1: worth noting you'll get the ATC projections for him. They

640
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: have him as a twenty thirty player. So that's your

641
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: baseline projection right now. For Luis Robert. I've made the

642
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 1: case over and over again. Change the scenery matters. We

643
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: ken't point to Andrew Vaughan on the other day's show

644
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: as well. I think playing for a contract matters. I

645
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: think playing with you know, at some point he's gonna

646
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 1: move up that lineup, I think a little bit. If

647
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 1: he hits and what he does, you've got Lindor Soto

648
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: Bishett hit in front of you, you can move up

649
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: to the four of the five spot. Man, Louis Robert

650
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 1: could be in a great spot. Potentially, I'm going to

651
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 1: be aggressive on Robert or you. Yeah.

652
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: Oh, I've talked about this one a ton. This is

653
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 2: a this is a guy that I'm gonna have some

654
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,479
Speaker 2: shares of because, you know, like some of the players

655
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 2: we've talked about, if you compare Cee j Abrams for

656
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 2: a second, you know, if C. J Abrams is a

657
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: twenty thirty guy, I think Luise Robert in his sleep

658
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 2: is a twenty thirty. He was almost a twenty thirty guy,

659
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 2: and he's stunk last year he didn't have four hundred

660
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 2: at bats. He hit two twenty three, and he had

661
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 2: fourteen homers and thirty three stolen bases with white sox.

662
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 2: Now you're gonna put him in. There's a ton more

663
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 2: lineup projection. I don't also love if he's going to

664
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: be hitting super low, but if he moves up that lineup,

665
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 2: he's locked back in. If we can get back that

666
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 2: two fifty two sixty hitter, I mean three years ago

667
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 2: he had thirty eight homers with twenty stolen bases, he

668
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 2: can be a thirty thirty guy this year. The interesting

669
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 2: thing is the wavering that's happened because the overarching so

670
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not even sure I understand the logic

671
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 2: of this, but the overarching NFBC he was going you

672
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 2: know that number you said, But as of recent he's

673
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: actually in the same caveat that I've talked about before.

674
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 2: He's actually down at one twenty one. So it's right

675
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 2: at overall ADP, but he's got a men pick of

676
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 2: ninety one inside the top one hundred because there's a

677
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: thirty thirty upside there, so there's more risk overall in

678
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 2: the profile. His bat speed is still there, but he

679
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: was within and striking out and pretty mediocre in a

680
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 2: lot of other spots. So a lot of us that

681
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: are in on Luise Robert, we're banking on this new environment,

682
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: this new process, the players around are going to change

683
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 2: his you know, his excitement for the game. We've all

684
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 2: kind of thought there might be like a little bit

685
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 2: of lethargic and maybe he wasn't in love with the

686
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 2: mess that was the White Sox. You're in a winning culture,

687
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: you're on the biggest stage that that's going to reactivate

688
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: the Luis Robert that we've seen before. And if it does,

689
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 2: that's a thirty thirty guy. It's not even in question.

690
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 2: And that worse, it's a twenty thirty. He was such

691
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 2: a stinky version of himself and he still put up

692
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: ridiculous numbers last year. He's got a chance to put

693
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 2: up some absolutely ridiculous ones, and I just think he's

694
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 2: this is worth this is And I wonder if that's

695
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 2: where some of the you know, the drafters are. You know,

696
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 2: you're picking your spots, like where can you take your risks?

697
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: This is a risk.

698
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,239
Speaker 2: I think it's worth taking a thirty thirty, maybe a

699
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 2: forty forty guy that you can take outside the top

700
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 2: one twenty in some spots. This is why I'm targeting

701
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: him because I think as an outfielder three you can

702
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: replace him.

703
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: There's a couple other outfielders too, they're in this mix.

704
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about Andy Pajas one thirty nine

705
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: ADP NFBC won twenty one, Louve Marte, who qualifies a

706
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: third base in most leagues, and outfield one forty one

707
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: average ADP won thirty one an FBC, and then Brenton

708
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: Doyle two ten but in NFBC one fifty six, which

709
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: kind of blew my mind as one of the bigger ones.

710
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: So I was curious. Pajes, Marte, Doyle. These are three

711
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: guys that I know. Paz is a guy I'm drafting

712
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 1: a ton of Marte. I like a lot too because

713
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: of the position flexibility. So I'm in on both of

714
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 1: those guys. Doyle, I don't really have any shares of

715
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: So I'm curious what your thoughts are on these three

716
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: outfielders had Do you rank them in a certain order,

717
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 1: Are you agreeing with the ADP being aggressive? Are you

718
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: somebody rather wait on a Doyle? Or do you like

719
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: Pajus or Marte or any of them for that matter.

720
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: I don't think any of them are like my big

721
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: massive targets. I think there's some risk with Marte, even

722
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 2: maybe some of the like minor league risk that's still

723
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 2: getting floated around. Anti pas seems pretty safe. He doesn't

724
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: have the stolen based upside, but he's the number one

725
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: guy here. I think from this I would actually surprisingly

726
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 2: I think in NFBC, I would think Noelvie Marte would

727
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 2: be going higher because of the stolen base upside. But

728
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: I think there's just risk in his game. Pa Haus

729
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 2: is like the twenty five plus homer guy. Brittain Doyle's

730
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 2: the one that really stands out to me. This is

731
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 2: the one like where I'm learning something of like oh

732
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: the end, I didn't realize industry guys are massive dramatically

733
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: in on him. That's I mean from.

734
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 1: I think it's justin Mason. I want to say Mason.

735
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 1: I had a conversation on Sleeper and the bus is

736
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: out on Doyle, which was really interesting too because obviously

737
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 1: the industry loves him.

738
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: So you yeah, I mean, I'm to be honest with

739
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: that kind of like Jordan Beck, Jordan Beck, I think

740
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 2: is even cheaper, and I think he's kind of like

741
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 2: a twenty twenty upside guy. Last year, Doyle fifteen homers,

742
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 2: eighteen stolen bases, hitting two thirty three, two ten ADP average,

743
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 2: but in NFBC going one fifty six. That is kind

744
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 2: of an eye opener here. I think Colorado just always

745
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 2: gets people excited. Colorado's offensive potential upside for any player.

746
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 2: I'm not sure if there's a projection of like more

747
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 2: stolen base love that's gonna happen. This one's a little

748
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 2: bit baffling because the only hit two thirty three last year,

749
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 2: So I've got to assume this is just like I

750
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 2: need a close to twenty twenty outfielder. It's the best

751
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 2: hitting environment out there. But I'm a little bit indifferent

752
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 2: on him. Like I said, I have some shares of

753
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 2: Jordan Beck, I don't have any of Doyle, but I

754
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 2: do get it. You know, if like you're going to

755
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: take advantage of that environment, Colorado is fantastic.

756
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: I just he.

757
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 2: Doesn't have the bat. He doesn't have like a high

758
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: end batting average or a high in stolen basis of

759
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: something that I can like, you know, live on. So

760
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit curious why he's almost in the

761
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 2: top one fifty for some others.

762
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Doyle as a while, I don't. I don't get

763
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,360
Speaker 1: that aggressiveness. I get it with Marte because a position

764
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,280
Speaker 1: of flexibility and the stolen bases, playing time with Sal Stewart,

765
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 1: all these guys that was gonna work out, It's all

766
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 1: gonna be fascinating to watch. But I still like Marte.

767
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: Position flexibility really matters because the way you can then

768
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 1: set your lineups, the way you can deal with injuries.

769
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 1: It really helps, especially is find a place to play

770
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 1: every day. But Paus is the guy that I continuously

771
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 1: We've done a million drafts and mocks this year. Pius,

772
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: I'm going after a great situation. Cheap Dodgers, you know,

773
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 1: cheap Dodgers. I want to be.

774
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 2: Part of the cheap Dodgers.

775
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: And most of the Dodgers are kind of I mean,

776
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 1: Mookie Betts is cheap by comparison to what he used

777
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 1: to be. Freddie Freeman's cheap. You know. The only expensive

778
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: Dodgers are really Yamamoto and Otani, and rightfully so. But

779
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 1: there's a lot of cheap Dodgers, and I just want

780
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 1: pieces of that offense, Max Munsey, I know, is your

781
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: favorite piece of that offense. There's one more guy we're

782
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: gonna talk about, and it's a catcher. And I know

783
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 1: the big caveat at the beginning of the show was, hey,

784
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: catchers are inflated, but this catcher was even more inflated

785
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: by comparison to some of the other catchers too, which

786
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 1: I thought was fascinating. It's Carter Jensen of the Kansas

787
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 1: City Royals. Now, he came out last year at the

788
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: end of the year, had a little bit of a

789
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 1: nice run. I didn't get to see a lot of

790
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: Carter Jnson last year. I'll be honest. By the time

791
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 1: he made his debut, I was, you know, knee deep

792
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: in football.

793
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: Checked out.

794
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, why not check out? But just you know, when

795
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: a NFL season comes around, it just kind of, you know,

796
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: takes over your life for me anyway, doing what I

797
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: do for a living. But I got to see some

798
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 1: more Carter Jensen this spring. I gotta say I was

799
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,439
Speaker 1: really impressed. And he's basically going right around Basaillo, which

800
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 1: is another player that I really liked to especially if

801
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 1: he's the everyday DH. So I just wanted to bring

802
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 1: this up here too, because we talked a lot of

803
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: young players. We've talked so much about Weather Holt McGonagall

804
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: and nol McLain and all these guys. They're such a

805
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,800
Speaker 1: good class. But Carter Jensen's also a fascinating one. And

806
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: you and I are both really by the Royals this year.

807
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: So talk to me about Carter Jensen what his upside

808
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 1: is in twenty twenty six.

809
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I seen tons of Carter Jensen. He was in

810
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 2: the AFL, the same AFL with with Jack cagleone out here.

811
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: I just see a lot of Royals as well. So

812
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 2: I'm pretty in tuned. And you know, what's a really

813
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: interesting comp So you said, Sami Bisio, I think what

814
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: everybody was hoping and wanting to get out of Kyle

815
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,720
Speaker 2: Teal is something that you can get for Carter Jensen.

816
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 2: And they're actually going next to each other in the

817
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: recent NFBC drafts. Carter Jensen is going above j t Ramuto,

818
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 2: Austin Wells Logan, o'happi seventeenth catcher off the board, So

819
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 2: he's a couple spots lower than Bisio. But I think

820
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 2: it's the offensive upside that people are staring at like

821
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,240
Speaker 2: if they're gonna have I mean, you know, it's getting

822
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 2: rougher for Salve out there. He's going to probably dch

823
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 2: some more days. But Carter Jensen's a guy. I think

824
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,879
Speaker 2: that they could feel comfortable dhing as well as much

825
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 2: as they want. In his small sample size when he

826
00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 2: was up, it was just like, you know, gas completely

827
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 2: hit down a pedal to the medal as they will

828
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: of XBA x lug barrel percentage, hard hit. All of

829
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 2: the sliders were at the highest elite level. So in

830
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,479
Speaker 2: that small sample size, he barreled and hit the crap

831
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 2: out of the ball. So I think that's what a

832
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 2: lot of people are banking on that. If you're going

833
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 2: to get a full season out of Carter Jensen, He's

834
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 2: got potentially twenty home run upside projections ATC's got him

835
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 2: in one hundred games, twelve homers, two forty two. That

836
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 2: is not justifiable in my mind as a catcher that

837
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 2: you would draft or think about drafting in like a

838
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 2: fifteen team starting league. But if we see that uptick,

839
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 2: if we see him get to one hundred and twenty

840
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: games and he's catching a lot more, Carter Jensen legitimately

841
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 2: has twenty home run upside. He showed that in the small,

842
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 2: small sample size, you don't just barrel twenty eight or

843
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 2: twenty percent of the time with a fifty eight percent

844
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 2: hard hit rate out of nowhere. That just doesn't happen.

845
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 2: They brought the ballpark in a little bit, which is

846
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: going to be more beneficial. Carter Jensen could be what

847
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 2: you wanted out of Kyle Teel who's now out for

848
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 2: four to six weeks. So yeah, I think the whole

849
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 2: overall numbers are just skewed because catchers are going higher

850
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 2: because it's a two catcher format in NFBC. But positionally

851
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 2: he is ranked a little bit higher than you're going

852
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 2: to see in a lot of like average leagues out there,

853
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 2: And Carter Jensen could be like a really sneaky, if

854
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 2: not starter, if you play in a fifteen team, if

855
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 2: you're in like a twelve or ten, you keep an

856
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: eye on him if your catcher starts to stink and

857
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 2: he's getting more playing time.

858
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Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, But the story of the

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Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll

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Speaker 1: see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If you love the show,

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Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB