1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 2: Let scambo on the Academy Awards. 3 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: Well, what's up, everybody. 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host, 5 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 3: Chris Raybon, and I am joined once again by my 6 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 3: fellow Academy Award betting expert Collin with Church. You can 7 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 3: find them across all social media at cow hit Church. 8 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 3: Just coming off a great episode one. I mean, this 9 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 3: guy is a complete maniac with this this oscar stuff. 10 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 3: And we got a whole nother episode to get to 11 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 3: all of the bets we're making in the non top 12 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 3: eight categories. So we already did Picture Director, the screenplays, 13 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: and the acting categories. If you want to check that out, 14 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: it's up now. But now we get to the real 15 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 3: fun stuff, the animated shows and the documentaries and the 16 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,559 Speaker 3: costumes and the technical awards that no one knows what's 17 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 3: going on, So it's gonna be a fun show. 18 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: We got a lot of bets for you. Let's get 19 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: into the fun part of the podcast. 20 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 3: Now you get to go off the map with some 21 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 3: of these other categories, and there are some real interesting 22 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 3: markets here. So we each have a bunch of bets 23 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 3: that we've made on a lot of different categories. This year, Colin, 24 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 3: I want to start with best Sound because it's a 25 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 3: niche category. It used to be two, now it's one. 26 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 1: But this is. 27 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 3: One that you don't see very often, so I actually 28 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 3: want your thoughts on it. This is one where the 29 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 3: favorite in the betting market does not match up to 30 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 3: you know, what we're seeing among the gold Derby experts. 31 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 3: Dune minus four hundred in the betty markets, but in 32 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: terms of gold Derby it's less. It's a little bit 33 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 3: less than a fifty fifty shot, and Wicked is plus 34 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 3: six hundred, but it actually leads among gold Derby experts, 35 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 3: not quite a majority, but right there at forty seven percent. 36 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 3: Also has about a third of editor in top twenty 37 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 3: four user support. And the fact that editors in top 38 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 3: twenty four users on gold Derby are a little bit lower 39 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 3: than the experts is actually a good signal because since 40 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, three winners have been backed by fewer than 41 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 3: twenty two percent of editors and top twenty four users 42 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 3: on gold Derby, including the Zone of interest last year, 43 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 3: and that had just eight percent of the editor backing. 44 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 3: So this is one where you know, the experts are 45 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 3: the ones that are the most predictive, and they're they're 46 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 3: they're saying, something's up here. So what are your thoughts here, 47 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 3: because we don't we don't see this too often where 48 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 3: it just the favorites don't line up at all. 49 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 4: I really like this look for you. It wasn't one 50 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 4: that I had written down personally, but I definitely see 51 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 4: the mindset behind it. Ben Zalsmer only has done it 52 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 4: forty point two percent for the record, and has Wicked 53 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 4: as its most likely challenger at twenty three point one 54 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 4: point five percent. 55 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 3: The one that the twenty three point one percent is 56 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 3: what that should be around, uh three to one, little 57 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 3: higher than three to one. 58 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Salsmand's model does that quite a bit, 59 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 4: because I think it boosts up to like thirty to one. 60 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 4: Uh yeah, a little bit too much. You know, like 61 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 4: if if you went if you went by like literal value, 62 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 4: every single like fourth and fifth place film would would 63 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 4: be worth betting on. I'm not saying that's the case here. 64 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 4: But the thing that makes this data a little bit 65 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 4: more complicated is, as you mentioned, this is no longer 66 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 4: a two category award, it's now one. This is only 67 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 4: the fifth year of that, so the data is a 68 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 4: little bit more difficult to parse. I feel like it's 69 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 4: also interesting that Dune is the favorite against literally three 70 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 4: musicals in a sound category uh in Wicked, well a 71 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 4: completely musical musical music based movies in Wicked, a complete 72 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 4: unknown and Amelia Perez. So I completely see your rationale 73 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 4: behind betting on an underdog here. I'm personally staying away 74 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 4: from this Dune. If I recall one this category with 75 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 4: it the first iteration of this film, uh and so. 76 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 2: I I would be shocked, Like, I think that's why 77 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 2: it's overvalued, though, I think that that gets your category no, 78 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 2: and everyone just going back to oreliable Dune. 79 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 3: But like I said, there's been an upset like half 80 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 3: the time since they switched because no one knows what's 81 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 3: going on. So I actually this is my this is 82 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 3: my favorite bet. I think this is the biggest delta 83 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 3: between what's most likely to happen and what the market 84 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: is predicting. I don't think you're going to find a 85 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 3: bigger delta. That's why I wanted to hit on this 86 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 3: category first, Like I this is this, I love this. 87 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: I think you should get a little down, kylein I 88 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 3: think you're gonna be kicking yourself if we. 89 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, I think you've probably talked me into it, 90 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 4: if we're being completely honest, I think that when I 91 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 4: was doing my initial initial research, I probably saw, you know, 92 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 4: data skewed because of the change in the category decently 93 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 4: strong favorite one before let's stay away. But yeah, you've 94 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 4: I mean you've talked me into it one hundred percent, 95 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 4: because especially with that gold Derby data and the fact that, 96 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 4: as you mentioned, maybe the uncertainty is actually a good 97 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 4: thing and a reason to pick an underdog here. So yeah, 98 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 4: I mean I'll join you. I'm on a wicked, wicked 99 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 4: wager here for sure, a wicked wager as they might say. 100 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: Man, I mean again, this is I think this is 101 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 3: the bread and butter of betting, this kind of of market, 102 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 3: you know, if you just try to find the deltas 103 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 3: between what what is most likely to happen and the mark. Again, 104 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 3: the sports books and these markets aren't super sharp, you know. 105 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 3: They they tend, as you've pointed out, Colin, they get 106 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 3: sharper over time, naturally. But that's that also kind of 107 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 3: just mirrors the you know, the momentum and and whatnot. 108 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 3: We've seen quite a bit of a smokes reads. No 109 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 3: one really knows what the heck's going on, and so. 110 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 4: I will say I will say to go along with 111 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 4: your point. If you're gonna bet Wicked in this category, 112 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,039 Speaker 4: you might hop on call She and bet they have 113 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 4: a category on how many oskers will Wicked win? Wicked 114 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 4: favored in two categories, Costume design and Production Design. I believe, 115 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 4: off the top of my head it's got a puncher's 116 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 4: chance and a couple others. If you believe that they're 117 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 4: gonna win this category and they're gonna win the two 118 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 4: that they're favored in three on Call She's trading at 119 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 4: fourteen percent right now, so maybe throw them down there 120 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 4: as well. 121 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great call out because it's I do 122 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 3: think that they like those awards, the Costume and Production, 123 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 3: those visual awards. 124 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: They're they're kind of trending. 125 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 3: Where we probably know who's getting those awards, and for 126 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 3: costume in Production, it seems like Wicked is gonna run away. 127 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 3: And the important thing with Wicked is it is the 128 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 3: Best Picture nominee nominee. So it's not like it's just 129 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 3: you know, coming out of nowhere and all of a sudden, 130 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 3: we're just like it's gonna win and beat and beat 131 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 3: this like established Juggernaut in Sequel in Dune like it's 132 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 3: this is also a Best Picture nominee. So another category 133 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 3: that I think is quite fascinating, and I know you'd 134 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 3: think so as well, So I'll let you talk about 135 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 3: it first, Best Live Action Short. That's right, we are, 136 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 3: We're gonna, We're gonna hit. 137 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: We're better. 138 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 3: It's like we're not every everywhere you go, you see, 139 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 3: like it's like an afterthought with these short film categories. 140 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: Again, I think. 141 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 3: No one knows what the hell is kind of going 142 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 3: on in these but uh, these are a lot of 143 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 3: fun and you can a lot of these you can 144 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 3: watch pretty pretty quickly because they're short. So talk to 145 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 3: me about the market for best Live Action Short. 146 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, So generally I'm just looking for something at plus 147 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 4: money in these markets because these are the these are 148 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 4: the categories with the fewest the least amount of data 149 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 4: points in terms of predictability. And with this one, I 150 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 4: think that, uh, the Man who could Not Remain Silent 151 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 4: is the most logical bet here because it is, first 152 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 4: of all, at least as of the most recent obscribe, 153 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 4: I did, nothing is at minus money correct me. If 154 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 4: I'm wrong, maybe that's changed, Chris. So you're getting good 155 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 4: value here on almost anyone, because I think it's such 156 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 4: a toss up. There are a couple other short categories 157 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 4: where I would go even longer than The Man Who 158 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 4: could Not Remain Silent. But I know that gold Derby. 159 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:33,680 Speaker 4: Experts are pretty heavily on that film, and it's one 160 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 4: the few precursor shows that have short categories. It has 161 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 4: done well there. So while Alien is right up there 162 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 4: with it, all the data, the little amount of data 163 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 4: we have on this point to the Man Who could 164 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 4: Not Remain Silent. But in general, with these short categories, 165 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 4: I think they are the ones where you see a 166 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 4: good amount of upsets. And this is one where the 167 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 4: odds makers are really just throwing their hands up and saying, 168 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 4: we have no fucking idea, So let's let's take a 169 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 4: shot on one of these plus money picks. 170 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, And this is again where I think gold Derby 171 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 3: is very valuable because these are people just like you know, 172 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 3: you know, somebody like myself might be essentially paid to 173 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 3: watch football, and like there are these are the people 174 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 3: paid to watch these films, and about forty five to 175 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 3: sixty five percent of these gold Derby experts think that 176 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 3: the Man who could not Remain Silent will win. It 177 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 3: is the favorite among the experts, and it's the favorite 178 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 3: among the twenty four users who predicted the best out 179 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,719 Speaker 3: of the thousands and thousands on the site last year. 180 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 1: So too. 181 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 3: And it's about a split with with editors, since there's 182 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 3: all there's the smallest number of editors, so we got 183 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: just one editor vote. Flipping could flip the Man who 184 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 3: could Not Remain Silent to a favorite among them as well. 185 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 3: But overall it is above fifty percent, you know, among 186 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 3: all the experts. And yet Alien is the Betty market 187 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 3: a favorite on Caushi at thirty seven percent, whereas a 188 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 3: Man who Cannot Remain Silent is at thirty four percent, 189 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 3: depending on like if you look at k you see 190 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 3: a man who could not Remain Silent is high with 191 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 3: Alien both at plus one point fifty. So this is 192 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 3: another category where you're getting a lot of value, a 193 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 3: lot of delta between you know, what the market things, 194 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 3: and with the people who know and spend the most 195 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 3: time watching these films think. And these are always tough 196 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 3: for me to predict, even after I watch them, So 197 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna get like my two cents or anything 198 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 3: like that. But I will just say that this is 199 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 3: another one where I think there's it is presenting pretty 200 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 3: strong value. Here, A Man who Cannot Remain Silent is 201 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 3: the play Animated short. Another one of these categories where 202 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 3: seems ripe for an upset. We have the caushy odds 203 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 3: at Wander to Wonder is the favorite, but it's it's 204 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 3: at forty eight percent, so it's not even better than 205 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 3: fifty to fifty to win that category. 206 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: But it's minus two fifty on d K. 207 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 3: And if you're talking about a film that you know 208 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 3: one one place as it below fifty to fifty minus 209 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,719 Speaker 3: two fifty, I mean you're that you're talking about, uh, 210 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 3: you know, FoST to seventy percent odds, And that's what's 211 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 3: implied over on draft Kings. And then if you look 212 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 3: at gold Derby, what you see is that again. 213 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: It's not the favorite. 214 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 3: It actually just a thirteen percent of the experts pick it, 215 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 3: where Beautiful Men has forty percent. So I'm gonna row 216 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 3: Beautiful Men as the favorite on gold Derby among the 217 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 3: experts at at five to one. 218 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: On DK, it's uh. 219 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:20,080 Speaker 3: On Cauci, it's at twenty percent. I like those odds, 220 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 3: and I know you like some other long shots as well. 221 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 4: Here yeah, this is again there there's less data points 222 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 4: here beyond gold Derby, which I think is is definitely reliable, 223 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 4: and I support you. You're using them for these picks 224 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 4: for sure. Wander to wonder. I think is A is 225 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 4: understandably a favorite. It won Best Short Subject at the 226 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 4: Annie Awards, had to head against Beautiful Men and In 227 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 4: the Shadow of the Cypress, which is a big data point. 228 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 4: I believe that two thousand and five was the last 229 00:13:54,760 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 4: time those categories didn't correlate. The only thing that gives 230 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 4: me pause with Beautiful Men is that while the Academy's 231 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 4: voting body has grown younger and more diverse over the years, 232 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 4: it is still not as far there as we might like. 233 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 4: And Beautiful Men has some animated nudity in it that 234 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 4: might turn off some a certain segment of voters. Maybe 235 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 4: I'm overplaying that a little bit, but both In the 236 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 4: Shadow of the Cyprus and Yuck are a little bit 237 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 4: more digestible, I think, and that's basically my rationale behind 238 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 4: taking a stab at them. I also kind of think 239 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 4: that in a short category nothing should be forty to 240 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 4: one because of how unpredictable they are. So it's kind 241 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 4: of just like a throw throw some couch, change in 242 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 4: there and see what happens, because upsets are are bound 243 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 4: to happen here. 244 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I was I actually agree with you. I 245 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: wouldn't mind. 246 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 3: I would I think I'm gonna go sprinkle someone, uh 247 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 3: yuck especial no cypress, especially yuck. I think it's actually 248 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 3: got shorter. 249 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, so you moved out of range before we recorded. 250 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 1: Yes, it was. 251 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 3: It was nine to one on DK and it went 252 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 3: to three to one overnight or yesterday we're recording, you know, 253 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 3: the day before. 254 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 4: Were So I don't I do not support a yuck 255 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 4: bet anymore. I would have I would have been nine 256 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 4: to one. But yeah, in the shadow of the cypress, 257 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 4: a tiny sprinkle, that's That's all I'm touching. 258 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: But I will say this, you. 259 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 3: Know, I again, I I don't really think there's any 260 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 3: true like steam or anything. You can't you can't pay 261 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 3: attention to any like weight movement that that that in 262 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 3: these this kind of. 263 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 4: At this point. At this point, it's financially based, that's 264 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 4: all right. 265 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, but like, yeah, there's definitely someone who uh, at 266 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 3: least someone who kind of saw what we saw and said, hey, uh, yucks, 267 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 3: odds are way too long, and so uh you know, 268 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 3: that's that's that's not the worst thing for it to happen, 269 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 3: but it's it's just not great for wander to wonder 270 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 3: unless you know, it's just like, okay, there's too many 271 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 3: like there's too many choices now and these these these 272 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 3: categories are one where I think, you know, not everyone 273 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 3: votes and not everyone necessarily watching all the films, so 274 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 3: they're always there's always gonna be some unpredictability there, but 275 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 3: still a great category. Two bet long shots, and uh, 276 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 3: I just like that again, people are paid to do 277 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 3: this year round, seem to think, uh, you know, more 278 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 3: than any other film. It's gonna beautiful men, and that 279 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 3: is not reflected in the market. And that's all I'm 280 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 3: looking for again at five to one, I just need 281 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 3: to win, you know, one out of every five to 282 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 3: break even. So again I think this is a really 283 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 3: it's a strong play, but so is Cyprus that you know, 284 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 3: it's up to what's five thousand on draft King that 285 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 3: you know, you gotta I had to sprinkle a little 286 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 3: bit on that. Then you kind of covered it in 287 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 3: more than one with more than one outcome in this 288 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 3: very unpredictable market, Let's let's go to Best Animated Feature. 289 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 1: What are you seeing there? 290 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 4: Con Yeah, this is probably my favorite bet of the Oscars. 291 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 4: It was my favorite bet last year was in this category. Coincidentally, 292 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 4: I picked The Boy and the Heron to upset the 293 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 4: Spider Verse sequel in this category, and that played out 294 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 4: in our favor. So I'm going back to the well 295 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 4: at this category, but I'm going with the favorite this 296 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 4: time in a Wild Robot. At minus two fifty, I 297 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 4: think that this is undervalued to the point where I 298 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 4: would probably bet it up to about minus nine hundred. 299 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 4: That's how competent I am in a wild row about 300 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 4: winning this award. Ben Zeusmer's model paints a little bit 301 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 4: of uncertainty here. He has flow up at eighteen point 302 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 4: two percent and Wallace and Grammat at twelve point seven percent. 303 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 4: But the Wild Robot has cleaned up everywhere every precursor award. 304 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 4: It has won, the Annies, the Producer's Guild, the Critics' 305 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 4: Choice Award, the adg It. It's also worth pointing out that, 306 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 4: I mean, obviously people mostly see this as a Wild 307 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 4: Robot against Flow, but Wallason Gramma gets discredited a little 308 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 4: bit by the fact that sequels don't generally perform well 309 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:37,679 Speaker 4: in this category. We have it, we don't have a 310 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,359 Speaker 4: ton of animated feature data. It's only been around since 311 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 4: the nineties, but Wallason Grammat, I think is ruled out, 312 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 4: so you're looking at a Wild Robot versus Flow. Flow 313 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 4: is also nominated for Best International Feature. It's it's a 314 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 4: fascinating film. Actually, if you haven't seen it, it's one 315 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 4: of three films I saw this year that were completely 316 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 4: devoid of dialogue. Along with hundreds of Beavers. It's probably 317 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 4: among my favorite films of the entire year. Also shout 318 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 4: out to hundreds of Beavers. Best film of the year 319 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 4: that was not nominated for any Oscars, maybe alongside Challengers anyway, 320 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 4: a Wild Robot. 321 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: Though. 322 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 4: One of the other strongest data points for me, along 323 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 4: with all of the other precursor shows it has won, 324 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 4: is the fact that it's nominated for two other Oscars, 325 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 4: which isn't very common in the animated category. I mentioned Flow. 326 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 4: It's nominated for International Feature, but it's not nominated in 327 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 4: any technical categories. The Wild Robot in addition to Best 328 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 4: Animated Feature, is nominated for Best Sound and for Best 329 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 4: Original Score. I think that the technical achievements kind of 330 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 4: put it over the top. It's also a film that 331 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 4: almost everyone saw in terms of the voting body. More 332 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 4: people probably saw it than any animated nomine other than 333 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:54,879 Speaker 4: Inside Out two, which is a long shot and not 334 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 4: going to win. So yeah, A wild Robot's my favorite 335 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,360 Speaker 4: bet here. I think minus two to fifty is very 336 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 4: easy juice to swallow, and again I would do it 337 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 4: up much higher than that. 338 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like not my style really in these but 339 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 3: I agree that it is. It is a bit undervalued. 340 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 3: I mean, just looking at Calshi, it's at seventy three percent, 341 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 3: whereas you just look at the gold Derby experts eighty 342 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 3: three percent, the editors ninety percent, and the top twenty 343 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 3: four years seventy eight percent. So regardless of who you're 344 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 3: looking at, and it's it's it's undervalued. It's just that 345 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 3: these these things present themselves because there's not a lot 346 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 3: of people like you that are willing to swallow the juice. 347 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 3: They just look at it and like all right, yeah, next. 348 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: So I do agree. 349 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 3: I think there's a value there and I think it's 350 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be that quote when 351 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 3: they when they tally up the votes. 352 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,199 Speaker 4: I think this makes me feel better too, Chris. We 353 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 4: took a lot of we took a lot of underdogs early, 354 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 4: and now we're giving out you know, minus two fifties 355 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 4: out there. There might be even be more down the road. Uh, 356 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 4: but yeah, I think at the Oscars you're gonna see 357 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 4: a lot of big minus money winners. You've got to 358 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 4: pick some and some are gonna still have value. And 359 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 4: I just think this is a category where there is one. 360 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, absolutely when you that's what at a minimum, 361 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 3: because a lot of these things and uh, people don't 362 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:25,679 Speaker 3: you know, especially if I think you're you're not like 363 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 3: a hardcore gambler or anything like that. 364 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: You're not a DJ, and you're not betting all year round. 365 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 3: Maybe you come around just to bet the Oscars and 366 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 3: a few other things that interest you. It's not necessarily 367 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 3: apparent what some of those big minus numbers mean, right, 368 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 3: so you know, people have you kind of you know, uh, 369 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 3: working out those implied probabilities. It just looks like, oh, 370 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 3: this is something I don't want to bet, you know, 371 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 3: But when you look at it and you say, okay, 372 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 3: it's minus two fifty, but it should actually be closer 373 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 3: to minus five hundred or even minus one thousand. 374 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: That still is value. Value is value. 375 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 3: No matter how you look at it, you still have 376 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 3: the same percentage edge if you're looking at it from 377 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:17,719 Speaker 3: that standpoint. 378 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: You know. 379 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 3: So I have nothing against it, and I think it's 380 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 3: it's just not a sexy bet for a lot of people. 381 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 1: But that's that's how you have to look at it. 382 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 3: You know, value is value, and it happened to be 383 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 3: big favorite, still undervalued in the market. 384 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Best International Feature. 385 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:43,719 Speaker 3: This is one where it is projected to be a 386 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 3: lot closer. I'm still here is a short favorite. 387 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 1: It's not. 388 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 3: It's minus one forty leading the way excuse me on draftings, 389 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 3: and I know this is this one is kind. 390 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 1: Of a tough call for you. 391 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 3: So talk to me about Best International Film, which is 392 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 3: up about sixty one percent on Caushi and then you 393 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 3: got Amelia Perez at thirty eight percent. 394 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 1: So a two film race here. 395 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, any film, any category that Amelia Perez is in 396 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 4: contention for is probably going to be a stay away 397 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 4: from me because we really don't know how the voting 398 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 4: body is going to react to the controversies around this film. 399 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,719 Speaker 4: At the top of this recording, I mentioned how at 400 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:36,479 Speaker 4: the beginning of January, Anora was fourth in Best Picture odds. 401 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,640 Speaker 4: One of the films ahead of it was Amelia Perez. 402 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,639 Speaker 4: It was essentially second behind The Brutalist and betting odds. 403 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 4: That's how far it's fallen. It's still you got nominated 404 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,959 Speaker 4: for Best Picture. It got nominated for more Oscars than 405 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 4: any international film ever, the most this year. And since 406 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 4: then it has completely gone in the tank, to the 407 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 4: point where it was only announced a couple of days 408 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 4: ago that it starred Carla Sophia Gasson is going to 409 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 4: attend the ceremony. She's been skipping most of the shows 410 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 4: in the lead up to the Oscars after some very 411 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 4: bad tweets of hers resurface. And that's not even to 412 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 4: mention the fact that it was already a contentious film 413 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 4: to begin with. The Mexican community has spoken out against 414 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 4: its depiction of Mexicans, the transgender community has spoken out 415 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 4: against it's the depiction of transgender people. It's a very 416 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 4: contentious movie to begin with, and then you add in 417 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 4: the controversy surrounding its star and it's it's like, how 418 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 4: do you even how do you even judge that against 419 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 4: like the voting body, Like, yeah, they voted it into 420 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 4: all these categories and that was before most of this 421 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 4: controversy came up, and now they've got to vote again 422 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 4: and maybe they are turned off by it. So basically 423 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 4: what I have landed on is if I'm still here 424 00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 4: was still the underdog to Amelia Peariz, I would probably 425 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,399 Speaker 4: bet it, but I think that value's gone. There is 426 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 4: a market again, like a couple of these others. Amelia 427 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 4: Perez is definitely gonna win Best Supporting Actress for Zolways Seldonia. 428 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 4: It is very likely almost definitely going to win Best 429 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 4: Original Song. It has two nominated there and depending on 430 00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 4: your sports book, those two films are either first and 431 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 4: second or first and third. On the odds board, so 432 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 4: FanDuel has over under two and a half oscars for 433 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 4: Amelia Perez. The under is plus one twelve. So if 434 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 4: you can't get I'm still here at plus money, you 435 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 4: bet under two and a half at plus one twelve, 436 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 4: then you're essentially betting on I'm Still Here winning that category, 437 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 4: which would lock in Amelia Perez more than likely at 438 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:47,959 Speaker 4: under two and a half oscar wins. 439 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that makes a lot of sense. 440 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 3: I was kind of right there with you, but I 441 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 3: did see some data that you convinced me to take 442 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,919 Speaker 3: the value here. So it is undervalue if you're just 443 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 3: looking at gold Derby, about sixty three percent of experts 444 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 3: and eighty seven percent of top twenty four users, which 445 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 3: are out of all you know, site wide, just the 446 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 3: top twenty four most accurate oscar predictors from last year. 447 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 3: They are backing it. And this is I believe the 448 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 3: only category since we've been tracking gold Derby data again 449 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:36,200 Speaker 3: thirteen years, it's the only category they've never gotten wrong. 450 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 1: They it's the favorite. Wow, their favorite, never lost. 451 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,199 Speaker 3: Now that's it's like the stock market. Past performance not 452 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 3: necessarily predictive of future performance, but the fact that there 453 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 3: is a there is an edge here, just numbers wise, 454 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 3: when you're just looking at the percentages compared to the 455 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 3: odds in the market, and then you're taking into account 456 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 3: that they they just haven't got this wrong yet. And 457 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 3: you know, international feature is it's another one of these 458 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 3: things where you know, you kind of have to know 459 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 3: the industry and and know some films that a lot 460 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,919 Speaker 3: of people betting may not so I trust them. I 461 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 3: do under and and you know, I do understand the 462 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 3: case against Amelia Perez, you know some of some of 463 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 3: the time, I think you want to fade a lot 464 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 3: of the noise, and I think you know, you said, 465 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 3: if I'm Still. 466 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,239 Speaker 1: Here was still an underdog, you would bet it. 467 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 3: I actually also look at it from the standpoint of 468 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 3: I wish Amelia Perez was a longer underdog, because then 469 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 3: I think there would be an opportunity to be contrarian 470 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 3: there and bet on a film that did get a 471 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:54,959 Speaker 3: lot of recognition before this controversy or controversies plural so 472 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 3: to speak. 473 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:57,399 Speaker 1: But that's not the case. 474 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 3: The case is that we're seeing value on Still Here, 475 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take that value. But I do agree, 476 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 3: I think, you know, if the price was right, all right, 477 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 3: there's gonna be uncertainty in this category that that isn't 478 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:12,360 Speaker 3: in some of the others. 479 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: With a million persons. 480 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 3: But it is real, like we've kind of seen this film, 481 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 3: you know, go downhill a little bit, just like I 482 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 3: think there's there's an argument to be made that we're 483 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,360 Speaker 3: kind of seeing it a little with the brutal us 484 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 3: as well. 485 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: So it is it is twenty twenty five. 486 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 3: People are just a lot more aware of this stuff 487 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 3: and whether you agree or disagree that it should affect 488 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 3: your you know, other people's opinions on art and you know, 489 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 3: kind of separating you know, personal views and and things 490 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 3: like that from art. The bottom line is that a 491 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 3: lot of people do and the you know, these voters 492 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 3: aren't exempt to that. So that that's a ton of 493 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 3: my thoughts on this one. So rolling with I'm still here. 494 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 3: I'm seeing some value on it. Film editing another another 495 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 3: one of these categories where it's right around minus one 496 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 3: forty for the favorite. The favorite is Conclave, and this 497 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 3: is one where you do like Conclave. So I know 498 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 3: you're you're not voting it for Best Picture, but you 499 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 3: do like it here In film editing, I do like 500 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 3: Conclave here. My initial inclination on this category was to 501 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 3: stay away because after the LA fires, the Editing Society's 502 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,560 Speaker 3: awards got postponed until after the Academy Awards. We saw 503 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 3: the same thing happened last year with the Writers Guild 504 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,080 Speaker 3: because of the strikes that made the writing category it's 505 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 3: a lot harder to predict and this year the ACE 506 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 3: ety Awards don't actually take place until March fourteenth, so 507 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 3: we don't have that as a data point towards the 508 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 3: best film editing at the Oscars. It's also tricky because 509 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 3: the other pre key cursor awards we could rely on, 510 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 3: such as the CCA the HCA Astras, they went to Challengers. 511 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 3: Challengers has dominated this category. Challengers isn't nominated in this category, 512 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 3: which is absurd. But beside the. 513 00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 4: Point, every film here is, you know, below fifty percent 514 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:16,719 Speaker 4: implied probability, except for Conclave. Cole Curtis has Conclave at 515 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 4: seventy one percent. It wanted the BAF does one of 516 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 4: the few that Challengers didn't win. It's been the favorite 517 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 4: since this market opened. I think this is one where 518 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 4: it is solidly in its favor. I think minus one 519 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 4: forty minus one thirty five minus one forty range is 520 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 4: very good value. I'd probably go up to about minus 521 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 4: two hundred on it, just because I think that while 522 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 4: there is sometimes uncertainty means you don't want to bet it, 523 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 4: sometimes uncertainty means there's value. Generally, if there's uncertainty, that 524 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 4: means the values on the underdog in this case, I 525 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 4: think uncertainty means the books aren't going as heavy on 526 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 4: the favorite as they should be. 527 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think there's some other things that kind of, 528 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 3: you know, if you're really breaking it down. Also point 529 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,280 Speaker 3: to Conclave, which, to be clear, is going up against 530 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 3: Anora as the as the top challenger at plus one 531 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 3: fifty five. You also got The Brutalist at plus seven 532 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 3: fifty and then Amelia Perez and Wicked, So it's kind 533 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 3: of like the Best Picture all over again a little bit. 534 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 1: But I do think that number one. 535 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 3: But what I talked about earlier is interesting is that 536 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 3: you have Baker here also nominated for editing. In addition 537 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:36,680 Speaker 3: to that being that, what is it the favorite in 538 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 3: the director category? Now, I think if you look at 539 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 3: this film objectively and you say, all right, well. 540 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 1: Is it a better film? You know, is it directing 541 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 1: better or is the editing better? I would go directing. 542 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 1: So this is another one where. 543 00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 3: I think other how the voters vote in other categories 544 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 3: could influence could ultimately influence how they end up voting 545 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 3: in this one. So you are kind of dealing with that. 546 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 3: But I just think I think that that Baker wins 547 00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 3: the directing category and that pushes me again to them saying, okay, 548 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,720 Speaker 3: let's let's go with let's go conclave here. The gold 549 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 3: Derby experts and editors do agree there is value from 550 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 3: that standpoint as well. 551 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:35,960 Speaker 1: Compared to the minus one forty. 552 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 3: Odds, it's about sixty percent on Calsey, you have sixty 553 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 3: seven percent of gold Derby experts, you have ninety percent 554 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 3: of the editors backing it to win, and as you mentioned, 555 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 3: they're really just is it much we can glean from 556 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 3: the precursors. But you know, gold Derby has been right 557 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 3: six of the last seven years. And what I think 558 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 3: is generally a pretty challenging category, Like anytime you see 559 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:10,400 Speaker 3: these technical categories, I just think people don't know exactly 560 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 3: what's going on, like even you know, just there's just 561 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:16,760 Speaker 3: a lot of chaos in these categories. 562 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: So could there be an upset put a norm win. 563 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 3: Absolutely, But I think the fact that Baker is the 564 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 3: favorite in directing and get a better even better jobs, 565 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 3: it is impressive, you know, to be nominated in both 566 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 3: these categories, not something that happens like pretty. 567 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 1: Much unheard of, but so it is. It is very cool. 568 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 3: But ultimately, yeah, I think the value is is on Conclave. 569 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:43,960 Speaker 1: All right, I know you got, you got. 570 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 3: You got a couple of other bets that you're you're 571 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 3: looking at. Some of them are are kind of more 572 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 3: longer shots. But production design, we talked about that earlier. 573 00:33:54,960 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 3: You do like Wicked at minus three forty it is 574 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 3: a big favorite, But I do agree here. But talk 575 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 3: to me about a production designer, why you can't see 576 00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 3: any other film upending Wicked, who, by the way, is 577 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 3: going up against No Saratu, The Brutalist, Tom Crave, and 578 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,239 Speaker 3: Dune Part two, all of which are five to one 579 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 3: or longer. 580 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. 581 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:22,880 Speaker 4: I can kind of rapid fire through a couple of 582 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:24,839 Speaker 4: my final bets here because I don't have a ton 583 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,839 Speaker 4: to say on any of them. Production design, I think 584 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 4: is wickeds really strongly both Benz a Osmer and could 585 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 4: Curtis have it north of sixty percent win probability? I 586 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 4: think No Sparatu or The Brutalist could potentially contend. But again, 587 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 4: you see sixty percent minus four hundred, it doesn't really 588 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,000 Speaker 4: make sense. But again with the oscars, we're looking at 589 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 4: it a little bit differently considering so many of I mean. 590 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 3: Have you seen this like if you just look at 591 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,360 Speaker 3: it that film versus the I mean, I think it 592 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 3: just stands out right, like, yeah, it's the obvious, Like 593 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,799 Speaker 3: I'm not even this the this category for me, both 594 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:06,680 Speaker 3: of the production and the costumes for me were just ah, 595 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,680 Speaker 3: the eyes told the whole story, like I didn't even 596 00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 3: need to really jump into the data. And if it 597 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 3: did disagree, I wasn't going to be convinced, like this 598 00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:14,520 Speaker 3: is yeah. 599 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,720 Speaker 4: And I think that the Academy wants to reward Wicked 600 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 4: in some way. It was the biggest movie of twenty 601 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,360 Speaker 4: twenty four. There are reports now that Cynthia Rivo and 602 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,560 Speaker 4: Ariana Grande Arek can actually open the show with some 603 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 4: sort of performance. I think it's going to be probably 604 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,960 Speaker 4: a medley of Wicked film of Wicked songs. Obviously none 605 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 4: of those songs were eligible for Best Original Songs. That 606 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 4: got to get those songs in there somewhere, got I 607 00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 4: have the TV ratings go through the freaking roof when 608 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 4: those two go on stage and sing defying gravity together. 609 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:43,719 Speaker 4: I mean, come on, But production design, costume design are 610 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,759 Speaker 4: the most likely ways that they're going to reward it. 611 00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 4: There's a tiny bit of upset potential there, But I 612 00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 4: do think that considering the amount of categories that no favorite, 613 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,799 Speaker 4: that the favorite has less than fifty percent chance, the 614 00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 4: fact that we're at north of sixty percent for this 615 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 4: makes me extremely confident in it. Best Original Score. I 616 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:07,760 Speaker 4: just talked about how I was going to bet Amelia 617 00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:13,800 Speaker 4: Perez under two and a half wins and I was 618 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:15,920 Speaker 4: going to try to stay away from films where Amelia 619 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,440 Speaker 4: Perez was one of the top contenders. Well, Amelia Perez 620 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 4: isn't one of the top contenders for Best Original Score. 621 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,400 Speaker 4: It's a long shot at sixteen to one, and I 622 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,920 Speaker 4: think that's worth a sprinkle. Like film editing, this is 623 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,839 Speaker 4: a category that's complicated by the Challengers snub. Challengers has 624 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 4: cleaned house in this category across the precursors. I don't 625 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 4: know how the Academy failed to nominate it. It's fucking insane. 626 00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 4: But Amelia Perez won the hmmas, the HGA Astras, which 627 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,800 Speaker 4: has aligned with the Oscars five the last seven years, 628 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,359 Speaker 4: and it won the IP Satellite Awards again. The uncertainty 629 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,759 Speaker 4: here is just how much the controversy around the film 630 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 4: is going to hurt its chances. I think a sprinkle 631 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,840 Speaker 4: of sixteen to one is worth a shot. And the 632 00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,319 Speaker 4: last category that I'll talk about and then I'll let 633 00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 4: you get to yours is Documentary Feature. I mostly just 634 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 4: want to shout out No Other Land, which is a 635 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 4: fucking incredible, deserving favorite. It doesn't have a US distributor, 636 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 4: It never got distribution in the US. It was made 637 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,719 Speaker 4: over several years by a Palestinian Israeli collective documented the 638 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:21,280 Speaker 4: destruction of Masafriata. And the Documentary Feature category is super 639 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 4: complicated by the fact that, like some of these other categories, 640 00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,880 Speaker 4: they don't often nominate. The Academy doesn't often nominate the 641 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,000 Speaker 4: film that wins all the precursor awards, like The Superman 642 00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:35,400 Speaker 4: Christopher Reeve Documentary has one of the PGA, It's one 643 00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 4: at so many other award shows. But the fact that 644 00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,600 Speaker 4: No Other Land might be seen as controversial to some, 645 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,960 Speaker 4: and the fact that it hasn't been seen by that many. 646 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 4: I saw it at the Beautiful Music Box, which I'm 647 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:47,880 Speaker 4: going to shout out again, because it did get some 648 00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:53,040 Speaker 4: independent distribution at a couple of theaters in America. The 649 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 4: fact that there's so much uncertainty over how many people 650 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,959 Speaker 4: saw it, how people reacted to it, makes me feel 651 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,880 Speaker 4: like it's worth sprinkling the other two ten contenders in 652 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:08,960 Speaker 4: this category, which are Porcelain War and Sugarcane. Porcelain War 653 00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,400 Speaker 4: one at the Director's Guild it beat out two other contenders, 654 00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:17,560 Speaker 4: including Sugarcane. So again, I'm not putting a ton of 655 00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,879 Speaker 4: money on either of these films, but I think if 656 00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 4: there is a path to an upset, it would be 657 00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,840 Speaker 4: one of those films. And I don't think, uh no, 658 00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,439 Speaker 4: Other Land is safe enough to be a minus money 659 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,320 Speaker 4: favorite here. That's all I've got. 660 00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I did. 661 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:38,799 Speaker 3: I mean, you're talking about documentaries here, guy, Imagine like 662 00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:43,040 Speaker 3: who knows what's gonna happen here? Like, like imagine watching 663 00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,279 Speaker 3: all these other great films and then just having to 664 00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,480 Speaker 3: sit through a bunch of documentary features. Yeah, I'm a 665 00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,440 Speaker 3: documentary guy. That still doesn't sound like. 666 00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,800 Speaker 4: You're talking to a guy who I My film studies 667 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,760 Speaker 4: minor was a focus on documentary film Like, I studied 668 00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 4: the shit out of that that category, And yeah, it's crazy. 669 00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, And I like, I actually will close it out 670 00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,759 Speaker 3: because I know you've got some fun exotics, So we'll 671 00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:08,640 Speaker 3: close out the categories and then we'll get to your 672 00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,880 Speaker 3: exotics and they'll get out of here. But uh, speaking 673 00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,279 Speaker 3: of documentaries, I do see some value in the documentary 674 00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,879 Speaker 3: short category on I Am Ready Warden. It is at 675 00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:24,200 Speaker 3: forty five percent. On Calshi, it is considered the favorite 676 00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,800 Speaker 3: on gold Derby fifty nine percent of the experts, fifty 677 00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,680 Speaker 3: six percent of the top twenty four years ors. 678 00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,120 Speaker 1: So not a massive value. 679 00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:37,160 Speaker 3: But you're still getting a favorite at plus money on calshi. 680 00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,680 Speaker 3: You know that forty five percent I think should be 681 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,400 Speaker 3: north of fifty percent. So yeah, you gotta get gotta 682 00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:48,399 Speaker 3: finish it up with some documentary bets. I mean, how 683 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,399 Speaker 3: else do she closed the show? But you have some 684 00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,600 Speaker 3: really fun exotics where it's kind of you know, it's 685 00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,440 Speaker 3: not the just betting on who wins the category, but 686 00:39:57,560 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 3: kind of you know, you kind of alluded to some 687 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 3: of them as we went through this. But talk to 688 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:06,560 Speaker 3: me about your your favorite exotic bets for the twenty 689 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:07,600 Speaker 3: twenty five oscars. 690 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:08,920 Speaker 4: Well, you talked to me out of one of them, 691 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,080 Speaker 4: if we're being completely honest, because one of these was 692 00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,719 Speaker 4: that call she done two to win exactly two oscars. 693 00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,160 Speaker 4: That would have been visual effects and sound, but we're 694 00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 4: not going with Doom Part two in the best Sound category. Anymore. 695 00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,640 Speaker 4: And in fact, that correlates with the other exotic I had, 696 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,640 Speaker 4: which was on Wicked to win exactly too. But if 697 00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:30,080 Speaker 4: we're betting Wicked to win best sound, that screws up 698 00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,880 Speaker 4: the other exotic. Anyway, Maybe what we actually are doing 699 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:38,040 Speaker 4: here is we bet on Dooon to win one oscar. 700 00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 4: We bet on Wicked to win three oscars, and those 701 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 4: are gonna that's gonna pay out pretty well at call. 702 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:44,880 Speaker 1: She I don't know if you. 703 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,640 Speaker 3: Okay, let's let's before we before we get here, what 704 00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:49,440 Speaker 3: are we doing? 705 00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:53,160 Speaker 1: What are the what are the odds. 706 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:57,759 Speaker 3: For the uh, the one where we thought where I 707 00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,160 Speaker 3: think Wicked is gonna upset? 708 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,160 Speaker 1: Dude, Like, what are the odds on your exotic? 709 00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:05,719 Speaker 4: Let me find it here? 710 00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:12,799 Speaker 1: Because remember Wicked is like six to one, so we 711 00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 1: could just bet post of these. 712 00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,840 Speaker 4: You know, yeah, hey, you know you're right and guarantee 713 00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:19,840 Speaker 4: guarantee profit exactly. 714 00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,800 Speaker 3: This is this is kind of how Djens approached this. 715 00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,600 Speaker 3: You're not you're not trying to be a predictor. You're 716 00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:26,920 Speaker 3: trying to be a bull if you want to be. 717 00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:28,200 Speaker 1: A prod So. 718 00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,480 Speaker 4: Wicked to win, Wicked to win three oscars, which would 719 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,280 Speaker 4: be the upset heading it's fourteen percent. 720 00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 1: Wicked to win. 721 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:40,160 Speaker 4: Two oscars, which would be chalk is seventy four percent. 722 00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:43,319 Speaker 1: And that's the one you liked. 723 00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,920 Speaker 4: That was the one I liked before you talked me 724 00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:48,240 Speaker 4: into the best sound. 725 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,239 Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, seventy four. But I didn't realize it 726 00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:52,879 Speaker 3: was that high, that's all. When you said exactic, you're 727 00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:54,840 Speaker 3: gonna have like some long shots, right, well, it was. 728 00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:58,120 Speaker 3: It was with some chalk. I mean it was, it was. 729 00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:01,640 Speaker 4: It was. It was sixty eight percent at the time, 730 00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,040 Speaker 4: And it wasn't necessarily when when I said exotic, I 731 00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:08,200 Speaker 4: didn't necessarily mean launch. I meant not who wins the 732 00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:09,240 Speaker 4: category bets. 733 00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:14,160 Speaker 1: I was all excited. I thought you were. I didn't 734 00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:14,400 Speaker 1: even know. 735 00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,239 Speaker 3: But we look at that part of the outline. I 736 00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:19,080 Speaker 3: just saw them. I just saw exotic. Literally, there's the 737 00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:22,680 Speaker 3: word exotic in capital letters, and it's all filled out 738 00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:25,960 Speaker 3: by you on our outline, on our show outline. So 739 00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:28,839 Speaker 3: just assumed it with a bunch of long shots. That's 740 00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:32,920 Speaker 3: totally my fault. Sorry for the false alarm everyone out there. 741 00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:39,239 Speaker 3: We will see ourselves out great great stuff, Colin for 742 00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,680 Speaker 3: everyone out there listening. You can find Colin Witchurch at 743 00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,440 Speaker 3: cow hit church on all social media. 744 00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,880 Speaker 1: I'm at Chris Raybon on X. 745 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:54,400 Speaker 3: We should have download the award winning free Action Network app. 746 00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:58,239 Speaker 3: If you're into betting, you can track expert bets and 747 00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:03,520 Speaker 3: your own bets. Great app, so be sure to download 748 00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:07,000 Speaker 3: that Action Network. We have a discord as well if 749 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:11,839 Speaker 3: you want to check that out, and we'll be on now. 750 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:18,000 Speaker 1: But enjoy the show. Let's get this money all right, 751 00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,479 Speaker 1: You've really made this a night to remember it every way. 752 00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:29,160 Speaker 1: Now let's go party till dawn. Action Network reminds you 753 00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:33,200 Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about 754 00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,120 Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to 755 00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:38,120 Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred gambler