WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - April 18th, 2020 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:06.280 This is Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Hi, I'm 0:00:06.320 --> 0:00:08.760 Jason Kelly and I'm Carol Masser. Welcome to the weekend 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.639 edition of Bloomberg Business Week. Over the next couple of hours, 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:13.440 we're gonna bring you some of the most important and 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.079 informative coronavirus conversations that we had this week on our 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:19.479 daily radio show. And Jason, for many of us, I 0:00:19.520 --> 0:00:22.759 was counting, it's either week four or five or more 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.400 potentially of sheltering in place, meeting, working from home alone 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:29.240 or with our entire family, a disruption of our normal 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:31.680 way of life as we figure out a new normal. 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:35.320 And we saw that playing out politically in the business 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:37.960 world and certainly in the financial markets. Well, and it 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:39.680 does feel like I'm so glad you brought that up, 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.519 because it feels like it is creeping into every conversation 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:46.040 right like the novelty has worn off. Everybody has settled 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.959 into some sort of routine as best they can, and 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:52.400 now the question becomes, where do we go from here? 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:56.840 We pose that question to a lot of different folks, CEOs, investors, 0:00:56.920 --> 0:01:00.760 how they're handling it and maybe what they see around 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:03.160 the corner. As we start to see some glimmer of hopes. 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:04.960 Let's talk about who we talked to. One of the 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:08.000 folks that we talked to was someone who runs a 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:11.479 small business. It's publicly held, but I bet it's very 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:13.520 familiar to a lot of folks in our audience. It's 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:16.840 the Party City. And we talked with the CEO, Brad Weston, 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:20.000 on how his business. I gotta say they are struggling 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:22.920 big time. They're also adapting and trying to reach more 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:24.800 of their consumer base who are used to kind of 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:28.320 going into their stores now online. We also talked with 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:31.959 someone who has a number of different fascinating windows into this. 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:34.919 We're talking about Sue Decker. She's the former president of Yahoo. 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.119 That's probably how you know her name. But she's got 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.480 a newer company. It's called Rafter. They work in the 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:42.360 higher education space. But also keep in mind she's on 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:44.640 the board of Berkshire Hathaway and the board of Costco. 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:46.760 What was great about her, she's at the intersection, as 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.040 you said, of so much as a result of her 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.480 background and her past positions and her current positions. And 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:53.240 she also gave us a little bit of optimism about 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:55.800 the future. So looking forward to uh hearing more of 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.120 what she had to say, also the founder of Tom's Shoes. 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:02.200 This whole one for one never more important than it 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:05.160 is now. First up, though, let's go inside the magazine. 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:07.520 This week, we spoke with Business Week editor Joel Webber 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:11.480 and Bloomberg Market's own Mike Reagan. There's not really a 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.239 textbook definition to say, Okay, this is what a bull 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.160 market or a bear market is. But the sort of 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.520 rule of thumb that everyone uses is obviously, once you 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:23.960 drop from a peak, you're in a bear market. But 0:02:24.440 --> 0:02:26.840 a lot of people think that if a bull market 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:30.679 can then be defined as a gain from that low. 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:33.240 So we have seen that, we've seen the SMP up 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:36.840 more than from it's it's low in more on March. 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.160 The problem is that the worst bear markets in history 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:47.280 are famous for having episodes where the market rebounds significantly 0:02:47.320 --> 0:02:51.280 more than say, it happened during the financial crisis at 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:53.040 the end of two thousand and eight and in the 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:57.280 early two thousand nine, but ultimately the low as yet 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:00.440 to come. Um Historically, if you look how long it 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:04.120 takes for the SMP to find that bottom, to find 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.520 that low point in a bear market, it usually takes 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:11.400 a long time. Something like three hundred and seventy trading 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:15.600 days on average, recording some numbers trunched by my colleague 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:20.359 Cameron Christ. So obviously there's a lot of disparity in that. UM. 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:24.400 Look at say the crash of nineteen nine, the bottom 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:29.520 wasn't uh found until ninety two UM. In the two 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:32.720 thousand and eight nine example, you know, the market peaked 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.160 in two thousand and seven, that the low wasn't found 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:38.680 until two thousand and nine UM. And if you go 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:41.360 all the way back to seven, that was the shortest 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:44.640 time it took to reach a low. It was something 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:48.120 like seventy four trading days. So if you look at 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.240 this episode, that low we reached in March was only 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.600 about twenty three days after the last record in the 0:03:54.720 --> 0:04:00.119 sp So historically it would just be unprecedented to see 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:02.520 that low reached in such a short amount of time. Alright, 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.720 So Joel Weber also with this editor of the magazine, 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:08.520 and we are reminded so often that the markets are 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:12.200 not uh the economy. How did you approach this story? 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:14.880 I think the backdrop for everything for a lot of 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:18.080 people here is obviously the unemployment numbers. But you know, 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:20.599 here in the middle of all this obviously, the markets 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.039 trying to figure out what to make of it, and 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.200 the numbers that Mike um has in this story, you're 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:30.240 just staggering to you know, go from this like highest 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:33.520 high to lowest low and just like a matter of 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:36.680 days really, um. And and I what I see when 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:38.240 I look at it all is the markets trying to 0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:42.400 figure out what it all means. And um, you know, 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:45.120 it really wants it to be over the other thing. 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:47.640 And I think we're seeing that even today. Um, it's 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:50.800 just desperately wanting to like get around the corner. And 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:52.640 I'm not so sure that that, you know. And that's 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:54.200 part of what Mike has in the story is like 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:57.360 I'm not so sure. Um, you know that's gonna be. Um, 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.800 what we what we get to loose through? Because the 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:02.080 other thing that's happening here, obviously is that traders know 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.320 you do not fight the Fed. Yeah, and that's where 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:06.640 you know, as much as I just cited a bunch 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:11.960 of historical precedents, it's very difficult in this current situation 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:14.520 to really go back and compare to anything in history 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:18.240 because it's so unique, it's so unlike anything we've seen 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:21.240 in history. Um. And the response from the Federal Reserve 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:25.000 and the government that quick massive, do whatever it takes. 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:29.960 Response from both the Fed and Congress is is completely 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:33.800 unprecedented in the history of you know, economic cycles that 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:37.279 the markets had to work through before. But when you 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:40.080 have that much support from the Fed, when you know, 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:43.919 sort of suppressing interest rates, buying up all sorts of 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:47.440 assets to keep that liquidity flowing, it's very hard to 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:52.239 put a hundred person faith into those historical precedents because 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:56.320 of this, uh, you know, unprecedented response that we're saying. 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:59.520 But you know that said, there's just a lot of 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.240 bad news. Is that we sought the work through. Um, 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:06.320 it's it's really hard to imagine this market continuing on 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:09.320 this sort of shape recovery that it's in. And that's 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:13.960 Bloomberg markets. Mike Reagan and Business Week editor Joel Weber. 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.760 You know, the markets, they have been a key piece 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:19.880 to all of this, and yet we keep trying to 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:24.920 synthesize or maybe rectify, justify what the markets are doing 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:27.320 versus what we see in the real world. Well, it's 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:29.719 you know, you take a look at what stocks have done, Jason, 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:34.039 they bounced more. Mike writes from that marche Low and 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.839 our conversations even with our market guest, right, is it 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:39.479 a new bull market? Are we still in a bear market? 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.240 We're trying to figure out, Mike says, you know, hold on, everybody, 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.159 be careful about your enthusiasm about the equity markets, because 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:47.160 we have a long way to go to recovery. You're 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.480 listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Coming up, we're going to 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:52.359 catch up with the CEO of Party City. A long 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.599 history he has in the retail business. He compares it 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:59.159 to pass crises and helps us understand what retail may 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:07.880 look like going forward. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:11.800 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly from 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.440 Bloomberg Radio. Today we're bringing you some of the most important, 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:17.440 we hope informative conversations we had this week on our 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:21.280 daily radio show, Bloomberg Business Week. It runs every weekday afternoon, 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.120 all about the coronavirus, of course, and looking around the 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.720 corner maybe to what happens next Carol and of course Jason. 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:29.400 These conversations with leaders in their respective fields, all of 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:31.680 it happening in real time. And Jason one of the 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:33.880 individuals that we caught up with was Brad Weston, the 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:36.320 CEO of Party City. Now keep in mind it's a 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:40.200 small business, but it's publicly held. It's taken a beating 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.440 this year. Certainly it's share price has and so has 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:45.000 its business. And we talked with the CEO about how 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.960 do you reach customers in environment where they're so used 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:51.240 to coming to its stores now they are reaching aggressively online. 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.720 So you know, one of the fun things is about 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:58.480 party City is is our purpose as a brand is 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:01.480 to be in the joy business. And and we create 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:05.040 joy by making it easy to create unforgettable memories. And 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:10.480 we're neque uniquely differentiated really to partner with consumers who 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:15.960 want to create customized and personalized celebrations and parties that 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:21.560 make life milestones and special occasions amazing. And you know, 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.280 we see it as our job to make, uh, make 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.640 party heroes out of everyone, and and lots of ways 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:32.360 that we're doing that as we speak, both from our 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:37.240 stores and our website that we can talk some more about. Yeah, 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:39.920 so let's talk about that. How do you make that shift? 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:41.920 Because I feel, you know, candidly, when I think of 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:45.000 party City, I mostly think of, like, all right, we're 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.000 having a kids party or we're having, you know, a 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.760 big celebration. Let's head on over and you sort of 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:52.080 go nuts in the store, and you know you're having 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:54.840 a good time. And as you say, you're, you know, 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:56.960 like you're in the joy business. If someone showing up 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:59.560 like they're throwing a party, it's fun, it's cool. Um, 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:04.360 how do you ensure both logistically and and I guess 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:08.520 from a field perspective that that you can translate that 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:14.120 into an an online or a non retail type scenario. Yeah, 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.640 great question. Uh, you know, And as a brand, our 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:20.920 goal is to provide the utility to consumers in need 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:25.920 a ways only Party City can really credibly deliver. And 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:28.920 obviously we want to do that without overtly seeking credit 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:35.800 or or appearing opportunistic despite being a part Our goal 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:38.439 throughout this time is to continue to make it easy 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:41.959 to share joyful moments of togetherness. And we believe you 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.520 should never miss a chance to celebrate life's moments, whether 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:48.120 big or small. And and you know we can do 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:52.120 that in in unique ways of of togetherness. There's really 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:55.079 two important ways that Party City is making that possible 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:59.480 for consumers to do just that. One is around our 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:03.840 operation sations we have been fortunate to continue to provide 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:08.840 nationwide delivery as well as introduce curbside pickup in some 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:13.000 of our markets. We're continuing to roll that out UH 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:17.320 and only in markets where local and state governments allow that. 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:20.040 At this point, our goal is to make this service 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:24.400 available in every one of our stores as circumstances permit. 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.280 And then additionally UH markets we're you know, we're trying 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:32.760 to expand to additional markets for curbside pickup and expanded 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:36.240 same day delivery capabilities UH, and more of those will 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:40.840 become available UH next week. Kind of the second is 0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:44.760 our ability to bring unexpected joy to people's lives in 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:47.360 this unique time, and if you go on Party city 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:50.200 dot com you'll find a few ways that we're doing that. 0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:53.240 One is fund program. We have Adventure in a Box. 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.479 So in response to social distancing and in the quarantine 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:02.360 requirements UH parties seeing me, we activated themed adventure and 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:05.920 a box ser Bible Kiss for families, which are a blast. 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:09.480 We really wanted to provide that in a convenient and 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:13.560 safe way to social distancing fatigue that we all know 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:17.520 it's happening, and boredom that is happening. UH. And so 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:21.199 Some of those boxes are things like movie night to 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:27.240 family game Night. We've continued to expand those curated selections 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:31.120 over this past month. We've also added a section called 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.000 Gifts of Joy and they should think about it. Our 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:38.439 family friends, the loved ones who are you know, in 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:42.320 in shelter in place situations, we often think about how 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:45.160 could we put a little joy in their lives, even 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.240 if it isn't a party, right. You know, it's interesting 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:51.360 that you say that because we've had already, um, one 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:54.160 birthday at home, another one coming up, and another one 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:57.360 coming up, so we have really thought about, Okay, what 0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:00.240 are kind of thoughtful gifts first of all of what 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.360 families can do together while we're home, and then also 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:05.840 thought about, you know, silly things, whether it's the balloons 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.400 we can blow up or something. Just because we can't 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:10.079 go out, we can't do a lot of things we 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.200 might normally do. So I do feel like I understand 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.360 where you're coming from. I am curious, Brad though, you 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:21.280 know how much of a business impact have you taken 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.200 as a result of this, because I know we've been 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.280 in and out of your stores, whether it was Halloween 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.760 or a party or something. Um, but obviously we're not 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.360 doing that. I mean, how tricky is it for you? 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:34.679 I mean you're publicly held, I know your stock has 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:36.880 gone below I think a buck which has made the 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:39.560 New York Stock Exchange, you know, reach out to you 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.880 guys in terms of you know, being able to have 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:46.640 your listing on the exchange. UM, just from a business perspective, 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.280 how tricky is it right now? Well? I think you know, 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:56.400 really all all of retail is in an interesting UH situation, 0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:01.280 whether you're open or you're not open, and the challenges 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:04.480 of liquidity and ensuring you that you have the right 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:08.840 levels of cash to support the business in the short 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:12.079 term and the long term is is really the responsibility 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:16.240 of management UH to to navigate it. I also think 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:21.120 as as you think about the overall retail industry, you 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.480 can imagine that the retail industry leaders are eager to 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.760 assist in discussions with government and public health officials on 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:32.840 on how to responsibly run open stores and then reopen 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.960 stores that are closed. I think the retailers who get 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:38.680 a lot of press UH these days and our forefront 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.920 and the conversation that are those deemed essential who are 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.000 open and are you know, are are they're the ones 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.240 being talked about. But as you know, many of the 0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:50.720 nation's large retailers are closed, uh, and there are the 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:54.480 voice has been largely unheard, however, uh, you know, on 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:57.200 BAB with all of them, we're eager to do the 0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:00.199 right thing for consumers at the right time. And as 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.400 we move forward this group of retailers, that group of 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:06.360 retailers that I just mentioned that our clothes will be 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:11.679 focused on reopening in compliance with public health officials, and 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.960 we'll be ready to demonstrate the proper protocols to assist 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:19.200 governors and in local government officials and understanding the state 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:23.040 of alreadiness to encourage the ease of restrictions when they're appropriate. 0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:25.320 And that's broad West in the CEO of Party City, 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:26.960 and I thought what was interesting one of the things 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.120 that he said, Jason, He talked about the responsibility of 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:33.760 management to make sure that you have the financial liquidity 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:36.880 you need at all times. And that's really relevant considering 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.960 all of the stimulus packages and kind of bailout assistance 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:43.320 that a lot of businesses large and small need right 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:45.880 now because of the virus. Absolutely, and you know, on 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:48.000 a lighter note, but an important note, I love the 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:50.280 idea that he said, You know, their business is to 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:52.800 bring people joy and to sort of enable joy, and 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:54.720 I feel like we need a little dose of that 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:57.440 every now and again, maybe more than a little toast 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.240 and maybe more than every eight now and again. You're 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.360 listening to Bloomberg because week coming up. A friend of 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.160 the show, Stephan Seeli, joins us. He's working at Bridge 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:08.760 Park Advisors now used to be working for President Obama 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:15.840 in the US Department of Commerce. This is Bloomberg. You're 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.480 listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.280 Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. We're bringing you some of the 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.280 most important and informative conversations that we had throughout the 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.400 week on our daily radio show. Of course, Oliver Jason 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:30.880 relates back to the virus and all of it happening 0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:33.920 in real time, getting reaction from leaders in all walks 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:35.880 of life. Well and one person I know. We were 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:38.840 both really looking forward to catching up with Stephan Seeley. 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:42.320 He's a managing partner over at Bridge Park Advisor's longtime 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:44.840 fixture on Wall Street. Worked at Bank of America as 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:46.840 a vice chairman for a number of years, but he 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.560 also worked in the government. He was the under Secretary 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:54.120 of Commerce for International Trade under President Obama. Wide ranging Guy, 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.000 wide ranging conversation, Check it out. We have seen a 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:01.880 crisis unfold that has both been catastrophe thick and incredibly fast. 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:07.320 And what I find, um most um interesting about it 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:11.440 is that crisis was in fact self engineered, UH, as 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:15.600 we shut down our economy um to save lots. So 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:20.560 does it make it any worse or any better because 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:24.720 of that? Well, UM, potentially, Carol, it means that the 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:29.240 recovery may be as swift as the decline. As you know, 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:31.240 a lot of the commentators you've had a you know, 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:35.200 UM your show and Bloomberg generally have talked about this 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:39.440 VU and L shaped recovery. UM. But implicit in that 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.680 question is because it was self engineered, is there at 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:48.080 least some visibility to a equally quick recovery. I guess 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.840 it's my view that, UM, that so called V shaped recovery, 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:56.880 at least in the economy may be challenging, um uh, 0:16:57.080 --> 0:16:59.400 which is different than what you might what you might 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:02.840 see in the markets, which make faster. And you know, 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:05.639 last week, I think um, you saw one of the 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.920 strongest weeks in the equity market since Boy Night the 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:12.480 nineteen mid nineteen seventies for a whole host of different reasons. 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.040 But I think the economy is going to be somewhat 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:18.359 slower to rebound. And so Stephan, you're talking to CEOs 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:21.520 all the time. You know, your history on on Wall 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:23.879 Street goes back a long ways advising you know some 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:27.360 of the most influential decision makers out there. What are 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.880 they saying to you? What if you can generalize, because 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.679 obviously you're gonna have a different view depending on what 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:36.840 business you're in, But if you're a CEO, what are 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:40.040 you thinking right now? Well, first of all, Jason Um, 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:43.000 I think there is no playbook. So we've never seen 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:45.960 an economic crisis like this coupled with a health crisis. 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:50.040 So every anybody that thinks they have some clairvoyance here, 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:54.320 I think is UM being somewhat misleading? Um. I think 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:59.000 everybody is very focused on um. When we are going 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:01.399 to be able to term to some level of the 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:04.440 new normal, and is it going to be fast enough 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:07.040 that there's not going to be mass closures of businesses 0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:11.200 and people will have jobs to return to. And if 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.719 it is fast enough, is the consumer going to start 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:17.760 spending again? Because, as you guys know, seventy percent of 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:21.600 the US economy is directly to the consumer, and folks 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:24.679 are going to be very focused on one, UM, what 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:29.160 has this How has this impacted the consumer both financially, 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:33.040 financially but also psychically in terms of their willingness and 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:37.760 interest in spending money. When we talk about reopening the 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:42.199 world and reopening the economy again, if somebody says to well, Stephan, 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:43.720 when do you think we're going to reopen? How do 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:45.760 you think it's going to play out, what do you say? Well, 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:48.400 I'd say a couple of things. One is it's going 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:50.600 to be gradual, so there's not going to be an 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:53.680 on off switch where all of a sudden Marabola dick. Two, 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.199 we're all back at work the next day because we're 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.120 either the federal government of the states have said so, 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:03.640 I think you will see a phased reopening UM, both 0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:07.480 in terms of geographies and in terms of industries. And 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.119 I think the interesting question, UM is, both at the 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:13.240 federal level and at the state level, what sort of 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:18.800 either guidance or um restrictions are going to be placed 0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:21.680 on folks when that reopening happens, Whether it's going to 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:24.679 be wearing masks, whether it's going to be certain social 0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:30.720 distancing UM regulations, whether office office protocols are going to 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:33.399 be different. And you know, we saw that, Carol. You know, 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:35.840 we forget, but we all used to go into airports 0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:38.679 without screening and without security provisions. We all used to 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.879 go into offices in New York City without checking in first. 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:45.000 You know, there may be certain regimes now that are 0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:49.080 just different post COVID nineteen. Stefaniely, I want to ask 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:53.080 you about trade with the virus as a backdrop. I 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:57.639 do wonder how what's going on and what we saw 0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:01.239 with kind of the breakdown of apply chains again as 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.760 a result of the virus coming on top of the 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:06.480 breakdown of supply chains off of the U. S. China 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:10.280 trade war. Is there some lasting impact as a result 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.879 of all of this. I mean, Carol, you're already seeing 0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:18.640 a relatively severe contraction in global trade across virtually all 0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:24.480 regions around the world and across almost every economic sector UM. 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:29.080 And that's obviously because of the damp and economic environment 0:20:29.440 --> 0:20:32.000 that we are you know, seeing now globally. And that's 0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:36.240 Bridge Park Advisors and former Undersecretary of Commerce Stephen Selig 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.040 joining US he tells it like it is, and you 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:40.920 know he's talking to C E O. S, but he's 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:43.359 also talking to people all over the world. He's a 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:45.240 big thinker in a lot of ways. Carol, Well, he's 0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:49.640 another one who understands the intersection of business, trade, markets 0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:51.639 and politics, which is why we love reaching out to 0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:54.040 him because he really brings everything that's going on in 0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:56.840 the world together and comes up with some really interesting 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.720 and smart conclusions. All Right, you're listening to Bloomberg bus Week. 0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:02.159 Coming out, we check in with Sue Decker. She's the 0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:05.480 former president of Yahoo, on the board of Berkshire Hathaway 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:09.080 as well as Costco. She's also got a social networking 0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:12.640 platform that works with colleges talk about in the news. 0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:16.119 It's called Rafter that's coming up next. This is Bloomberg. 0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:24.800 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and 0:21:24.920 --> 0:21:28.080 Jason Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. So today we're bringing you 0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:30.919 some of the most important and we hope informative conversations 0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:34.479 we had throughout the week on our daily Bloomberg Business 0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:37.160 Week radio show. Jason, we had the opportunity to catch 0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:39.560 up with Sue Deck. Are really another person who is 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:42.679 at the intersection of so much. She's former president of Yahoo. 0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:46.880 She's on the boards of Berkshire Hathaway, on Costco, on Vox, 0:21:47.080 --> 0:21:50.360 of Veil Resorts, on so many different companies. But let's 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:52.720 keep in mind she started a new social networking platform. 0:21:52.760 --> 0:21:55.679 It's called Rafter, and it's really tackling some of the 0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:59.119 challenges that are facing higher education. Yes, it's it's in 0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:02.119 a really challenge time in many ways for many people 0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:04.280 all over the world right now, and I think universities 0:22:04.640 --> 0:22:08.119 and students in particular are facing a reality that no 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:11.960 one really anticipated. You have to commend the universities for 0:22:12.160 --> 0:22:15.240 how quickly they were able to get people and students 0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:20.160 home and faculty transition to online learning UH in such 0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:22.560 a short amount of time. But I think it's been 0:22:23.160 --> 0:22:27.280