1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:12,319 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, 6 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. The Bloomberg 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:35,559 Speaker 1: events structure this year is extraordinary. We've got Brad Stone 8 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 1: and Emily Chang with a technology conference which is world class. 9 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: Look for that in the coming weeks. And right now 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 1: this moment in New York, there is Bloomberg Invests. Brian 11 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: moynihan will be speaking from Bank of America, otherworthies, Raydale. 12 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: I believe mister Drucon Miller is going to darken the door. 13 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: That's all fine and well, and there will also be 14 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,959 Speaker 1: tactical discussion around Bloomberg Invests leading that. As Seamas Show, 15 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: our chief global strategist of Principal Asset Management, who joins 16 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: us this morning. I love Seema, how buried in your 17 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 1: note you have We are underweight in some way equity 18 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 1: slightly underweight. You know, you got the adverbs going there. 19 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: How do you do an equity strategy when you see 20 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: what Nvidia is doing? 21 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 2: Now? 22 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 3: Oh well, okay, so within our slight underweight to equities, 23 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 3: we actually have an overweight to large cap. The reason 24 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 3: we have the way overweight to large caps which we 25 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 3: made back in February, was actually a cyclical reason, which 26 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 3: was threefold. One was that you have we believe a 27 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:39,680 Speaker 3: slow downcoming potential recession. We have the towards the end 28 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 3: of the FED hiking cycle. And the third thing is 29 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 3: that large caps typically have a greater international exposure revenue 30 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 3: than you do in your small cap So that was 31 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 3: a reason. And now you've added in the Nvidia. So 32 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 3: actually that is playing out fairly well. But of course 33 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 3: you have to think about your S and P five 34 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 3: hundred target. Could it go back to the September low? Well, 35 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 3: last techer is doing this world. The maths just doesn't 36 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 3: add up. 37 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 2: Master does an add up for the S and P. 38 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 2: Then that's that one hundred. Does the mass add up 39 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: for the US stocks fifty? 40 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 3: That's an interesting one, the U stocks fifty. I mean, 41 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 3: we keep having this conversation with clients about US exceptionalism 42 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 3: about six months ago, Everyone's like, well, look maybe for 43 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 3: the next decade we could have higher inflation. This is 44 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 3: value trade. Therefore, Europe is in the ascendency. And then 45 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: you have this movement back INTOAI. Sorry, and actually the 46 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 3: US is back and that's what everyone is talking about. 47 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 3: And certainly from our perspective, yes, as a cyclical or 48 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 3: as a tactical trade. At the moment, the US is 49 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,679 Speaker 3: not our favorite region. But if you're looking out of 50 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 3: a ten year period, do you want to be focused 51 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 3: on the US or Europe? Well, it's one hundred percent 52 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 3: in US. 53 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 2: Back home, you've just come from London. How are they 54 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 2: thinking about this now? They've been parlering into our VMH 55 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 2: stock was flying data out of China starts to weaken. 56 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 4: Are they abandoning that trade quickly? 57 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 5: Yeah? 58 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,399 Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of disappointment, and I think 59 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:58,679 Speaker 3: they're quickly cutting those positions. And the thing is is 60 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 3: that look at the moment, so many people are positioned 61 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 3: for bearishness in the in the broad market. They've got 62 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 3: a cut wherever makes the most sense, where there isn't 63 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 3: as much confusion, And I think with the China story, 64 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 3: there is a general feeling that this is going to 65 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 3: be very disappointing the second half of the year. It 66 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 3: could still reach slightly the GDP target, but we're not 67 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 3: looking anything like the kind of stimulus measures that we 68 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 3: would have seen in previous cycles. So, yes, the China 69 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 3: trade is coming down, and actually as a result of that, 70 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 3: because of the European exposure to China that is also 71 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 3: coming down as well. 72 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 6: You said that people are looking for ways to express 73 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 6: their bearish views. They're struggling to find the places. What 74 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,119 Speaker 6: other places are you seeing them express their bearish views 75 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 6: at a time when it's dangerous to do so, and 76 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 6: it's unclear the best way to really express that. 77 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 3: Well, if you have if you can do broad asset allocation, 78 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 3: then really the place to be focused is fixed income. 79 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 3: Core fixed income is your best place to show that bearishness. Quality, defensive, 80 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 3: those are the areas probably hig yield is not the 81 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 3: area that you want to be focusing on. You if 82 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 3: you believe that a slow down is cup and then 83 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 3: there's a core part of it, which is still alternatives 84 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 3: that that trade continues to play on fairly well. It 85 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 3: provides really good diversification. I mean, we saw that during 86 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 3: the SVB crisis, the things like infrastructure continue to perform 87 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 3: extremely well. So if you are one of the people 88 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 3: that believes that there is an economic slow downcoming, there 89 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 3: are ways to play this which maybe are not as 90 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 3: controversial as cerny what you see for the equity market, have. 91 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 6: You shifted your view in terms of what you believe 92 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 6: is defensive? And I ask this because we keep hearing 93 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 6: about how Apple and some of the big tech stocks 94 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,359 Speaker 6: have gone from high beta interst rate sensitive sectors to 95 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 6: suddenly the star warts of the market, the engines of growth, 96 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 6: the place that you have to be if you want 97 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 6: to be safe. Are you buying that? 98 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 3: Well, look, the growth trade is typically where you want 99 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 3: to go if you believe that the economic environment is 100 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 3: turning more negative. That has always been the case. Only 101 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 3: all of our models show that same story. The AI 102 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 3: is that additional secular story where there may be well 103 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: be froth, but certainly we bind the idea that technology, 104 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 3: and not just AI, but technology is for the future. 105 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 3: We actually made a very reluctant decision to color tech 106 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 3: exposure last year, in last January in twenty twenty two, 107 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 3: because of the FAED hiking cycle coming up. But we 108 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 3: continue to be the long term believers in tech, which 109 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 3: is why we went in. Plus, the very important cyclical fact. 110 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 2: Is, well the start twenty two that was the right 111 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 2: decision because tech was just brutal. Can I just finish 112 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 2: on the loads of October? Where are you on the 113 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 2: loads of October now? Because we used to go back 114 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,559 Speaker 2: and forth about whether we'd retest those lows they're twenty 115 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 2: points ago, we've had a twenty percent rally off the bottom. 116 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 2: Are we retesting those loas? 117 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 3: I'll be honest, I think this is a really, really difficult 118 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 3: decision to make. So look, the tech story means that 119 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 3: it's unlikely, right you could see a little bit of 120 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 3: a pullback because of the froth in the market. Yes, 121 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 3: But if you don't get that pullback and you get 122 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 3: the momentum story that Julian was talking about yesterday, if 123 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 3: you get that momentum pulling up the rest of the market, 124 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,679 Speaker 3: and actually then you're getting a melt up potential deeper 125 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:55,279 Speaker 3: recession down the line. I do believe if you don't 126 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 3: get a recession sooner, the later it is, the harder 127 00:05:57,920 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 3: it becomes. So you want to get this out the way. 128 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 3: And if that happens, then maybe you get another move up, 129 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 3: but next year it'll be a tougher story. 130 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,359 Speaker 2: Same it good to say in New York. Great to 131 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 2: catch up of principals and management. 132 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 1: Briefing US now. Marilyn Watson with Black Rocketed Global Fundamental 133 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: Fixed Income Strategy, Maryland. The pain in the bond market 134 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: is down seventeen percent on the Bloomberg Total Return Index 135 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:28,119 Speaker 1: and we've come back six or seven percent. We've come back. 136 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 1: Just a simple question, now, what do you presume price up, 137 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: yield down? Do you assume a new leveling or do 138 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: we revisit price down yield up. 139 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, So, as you say, we've seen a huge amount 140 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 7: of holacility in fixing markets. 141 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 5: In particular this year, which has exceeded that. 142 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 7: In the equity market in the markets as well. I 143 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 7: think now that we've seen the resolution of the debt 144 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 7: ceiling negotiations and then seventy around that, we now know 145 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 7: that we're going to have a huge amount of issuance 146 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 7: coming the US treasure We needs to build up the 147 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 7: TJ balance again, so we know we have a lot 148 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 7: of issuance coming there, and that amount of supply obviously 149 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 7: will need to be absorbed by the market. On the 150 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 7: other hand, that is going to also obviously, you know, 151 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 7: train some sort of liquidity from the system as well. 152 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 7: But I think at the moment, you know, when we 153 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 7: talk about f MC rhetoric, when we look at the 154 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 7: data coming through, we saw, you know, in terms of 155 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 7: the jobs data, the name market remains incredibly tight. We 156 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 7: have seen some softening in terms of sentiment obviously, and 157 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 7: you know other data, but you know, consumers continue to spend, 158 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 7: the real estate housing market remains on a pretty solid footing, 159 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 7: and so the economy actually in the US remains on 160 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 7: a very us putting at the moment. And so I think, 161 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 7: you know, coming into next week to say, all eyes 162 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 7: will certainly be on the CPI data. Inflation is still 163 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 7: you know, far above the Fed's target, and so they 164 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 7: may choose to pause or to skip or have you 165 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 7: want to phrase it. But it's certainly not a dunde 166 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 7: that there won't be more hikes to come. But I think, 167 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 7: you know, they need to absorb and continue to look 168 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 7: at the lags in the transmission, you know, the previous 169 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 7: rate hikes. 170 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 1: So take that excuse me, take that MAC review and 171 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: bring it over to a strategy. Do you manage for 172 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: coupon or do you manage for total return? 173 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 7: Well, we try to manage for both. So I think 174 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 7: if you have a very flexible, you know, unconstrained approach 175 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 7: to fixed income, you can have both. And so at 176 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 7: the moment you can have very high quality, decent carry, 177 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 7: which given spreads today, you also do have a decent 178 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 7: amount of buffer. Now you would have to see a 179 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,680 Speaker 7: significant repricing from here to actually see you know, a 180 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 7: further loss in total return. So I think you can 181 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 7: have both. 182 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 8: What we try to do is construct. 183 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 7: Portfolio where you know, we have you know, low volatility, 184 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 7: where we have decent carry, decent liquidity, and we have 185 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 7: a very wide range of different positions as well, so 186 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 7: we can take advantage of relative value positions where we're 187 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 7: stripping out the beta effectively. And you know, in today's 188 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 7: environment where we see a lot more dispersion between individual 189 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 7: bond issuers in between the individual names, it's much easier 190 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 7: as well to capture that relative value. You know, we're 191 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 7: taking advantage of the different valuations between you know, for example, 192 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 7: some names and emergent markets in her yield in investment 193 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 7: grade corporate, So I mean think the bond market today 194 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 7: is a very different beast to the one that was 195 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 7: a year ago, five years ago, and I think the 196 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 7: amount of opportunities out there now are so much larger 197 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 7: that you know, if you can construct a very very 198 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 7: balanced portfolio with a lot of different risk factors, you 199 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 7: can get both the income and the carry, but you 200 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:44,679 Speaker 7: can also help to protect returns. 201 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 6: I can't remember the last time the two massive bond 202 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 6: shops have had such divergent views on where long term 203 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 6: rates are going to go. And I'm thinking of you 204 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 6: Black Rock as well as JP Morgan Asset Management that 205 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 6: see you've got by Michael saying the entire curve is 206 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 6: going to be at three percent or below in the 207 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 6: near term. How do you push back against that, that 208 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 6: feeling that we are not going to go back to 209 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 6: a low rate era and see something that does depart 210 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 6: from the past twenty years. 211 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 7: So I think, first of all, we do think that 212 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 7: inflation it's coming down, but it's going to remain elevated 213 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 7: and at the higher levels than we've seen in previous cycles. 214 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 7: I think, you know, inflation is or it looks like 215 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 7: it's going to be relatively persistent. Secondly, I think the 216 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 7: FED is going to remain higher for longer as well, 217 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 7: And as I say, you know, it may well move more. 218 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 7: We'll see what they do next next week and in 219 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 7: the coming months as well. But given the economic data 220 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 7: we have at the moment, then it's highly likely or 221 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,439 Speaker 7: very possible that the FED could hype again and then 222 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 7: they say, we have this huge amount of issuance you 223 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 7: know that's coming in the market as well. And I 224 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 7: mean on the other side of that, obviously, we do 225 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 7: have a lot of demand from investors who are still 226 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 7: parked in cash or who are parked in money market 227 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:02,319 Speaker 7: funds and you know, somewhat on the sidelines. But I 228 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,199 Speaker 7: think when you look at long term, when you look 229 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 7: at the economy, when you look at growth, and you're 230 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 7: talking about the tech sector before, we're continuing to see 231 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 7: huge amount of investment in that area that's continuing to 232 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 7: drive productivity. So I think there are a huge number 233 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 7: of factors that mean that you know, inflation and rates 234 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 7: will remain higher for longer. 235 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 6: How much higher Where do you see the curve kind 236 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 6: of settling out at. 237 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 5: So it's hard to see. 238 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 7: I mean, we could see a little bit higher sort 239 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 7: of you know, from here over the next few months, 240 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 7: depending on how the economic data comes through, depending on 241 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 7: what we see in terms of the stresses that continue 242 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 7: toble through in the in the banking sector and elsewhere. 243 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 7: I mean, I think there are reasonable levels now if 244 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 7: you look at you know, certainly the fixing market compared 245 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,839 Speaker 7: to the stock market, then you know, I would say 246 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 7: the actually market maybe is overpriced, but I think from 247 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 7: here you could see them. 248 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 5: A little bit higher. 249 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 7: But it really depends on the data that we see 250 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,599 Speaker 7: coming through in terms of inflation, in terms of the 251 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:01,559 Speaker 7: economy over the next few months. 252 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 2: Usually it's the equity people commenting on bonds. Mount and 253 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 2: that was a comment on equities there. It's kind of 254 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 2: interesting to me. I've heard that a couple of times 255 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 2: now in the last twenty four hours. Mounting the bond 256 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 2: investors thrown some shade at equities. 257 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 4: What's that about. 258 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 7: Well, it's been a long time coming, John, I could 259 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 7: say that, I you know, I really think that that 260 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 7: now the bond market has a huge amount of values. 261 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 4: Off Mountain Watson a Blackrock Mountain. Thank you. 262 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: We need a political brief here. She's hugely popular with 263 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: all of you. Thank you so much for supporting Wendy 264 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 1: shil Or Brown University, Director of the tomb And Center 265 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: for American Politics. Give me the history here on how 266 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: people of low polling either party can advance towards the primaries. 267 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: If I see from five thirty eight to fifty four percent, 268 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 1: DeSantis less than half that, and the others are all 269 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: single digit. Is there any history, Professor Schiller, of single 270 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: digity people doing better? 271 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 8: No, no cstantial history. I mean, you remember the expression 272 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 8: the big mo, and we were talking about George Herbert 273 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 8: Walker Bush way back when God about the big mo, 274 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 8: and people perceived other people as more impalatable, and he 275 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 8: ended up getting the nomination in nineteen eighty eight, for example. 276 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 8: So I think that the issue here is the difference 277 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 8: for Donald Trump in August when the first debate comes, 278 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 8: is that everybody on the stage will be attacking him 279 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 8: in this subtle way, but they are going to use 280 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 8: him as the target. That's a new position for him. 281 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 8: He wasn't really the front runner when he first announced. 282 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 8: When we first got to the stage, he emerged as 283 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 8: a star. 284 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 5: But everybody else is trying to make their own case. 285 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 8: Now they have to attack him subtly not to anger 286 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 8: his supporters. 287 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 5: And make a case for themselves. 288 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 8: That's the big problem for the debate for everybody challenging Trump. 289 00:13:59,920 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 8: You do that, well, there's not enough airtime in a 290 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 8: debate with ten people. If that's how my people are 291 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 8: going to be on the stage. 292 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: Professor, you have a definitive textbook, which you know is 293 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 1: great Civics one oh one on America. I told you once, Wendy, 294 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 1: that you needed to rename the textbook follow the money. 295 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: Is that what this is about? I mean, are all 296 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: these people running because of a financial advantage in running? 297 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 5: Well? 298 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 8: That has become a new cottage industry that you know, 299 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 8: with the advent of social media and the way of 300 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 8: making a reputation without the mainstream media, then you have 301 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 8: a way of getting speaking gigs, of raising donations. 302 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 5: I mean, it just changes everything. 303 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 8: But I still think you need the biggest money donors 304 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 8: to make it through the primary season to really launch 305 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 8: a challenge to Trump. 306 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 5: For example, you need Chris Christy. Where's you going to 307 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 5: get the money. There's a couple of people in Jersey that. 308 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 8: Have given a lot of money to the Republican presidential 309 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 8: campaigns in the past. 310 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 5: Are they going to back Christie? Are they going to 311 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 5: back Mike Pence. 312 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 8: I mean, with enough really big money, you can run 313 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 8: enough ads in some states may be that not me, 314 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 8: but not super solid to dent him. But where are 315 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 8: those big money donors going to line up? They haven't 316 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 8: really announced for Trump, but they aren't really lining up. 317 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 5: We saw a little movement towards the Santis, but. 318 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 8: Then they backed off when you had a pretty disastrous 319 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 8: front announcement of was a campaign. 320 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 5: So now where do they go? That will make a. 321 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 8: Difference, exactly as John's saying, between now and August, those 322 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 8: signals are going to be important. 323 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 6: One other signal it's going to be important's whether there's 324 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 6: unification among the different Republican candidates on some key issues 325 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 6: that affect the money that you're following, such as trade. 326 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 6: How much is this sort of a unified view not 327 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 6: only against China but in general in a more sort 328 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 6: of regionalization of trade, a pullback from sort of the 329 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 6: traditional globalization models. 330 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 8: Well, Lisa, this is an amazingly important point because our 331 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 8: primary is just no regional right, and so you still 332 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 8: need the big money to worry about regulation and free 333 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 8: trade and taxes, and that's pretty constant. 334 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 5: That's what they've always worried about. But they also want 335 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 5: stability and certainty. 336 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 8: They don't want chaos, they don't want unpredictability. 337 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 5: And it's funny because it's not funny. 338 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 8: But Trump, you know, presents pretty chaotic future. We don't 339 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 8: know what he's ever going to do in any given moment. 340 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 8: But now DeSantis has proven to be someone who may 341 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 8: not be predictable. 342 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 5: Who may kind of want to jump the shark in 343 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 5: terms of. 344 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 8: Regulating business with his few but Disney, is he really 345 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 8: a reliable investment? And that's what I think businesses are 346 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 8: looking for traditional Republican platform, but it's also coupled with 347 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 8: certainty and competence in terms of smooth government running. 348 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 5: We saw McCarthy sent that signal. 349 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 8: Clearly to Wall Street. I will make sure the trains 350 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 8: run on time and I won't crash the economy. One 351 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 8: big question, very clear signal. 352 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 6: One big question I keep hearing from analysts on Wall 353 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 6: Street is if the rhetoric on both sides of the 354 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 6: aisle is rewarded, if it's inflammatory towards TIA, in particular, 355 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 6: saying that we want to isolate them, we are in 356 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 6: a huge rivalry with them. How are we going to 357 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 6: soften the tensions even as Tony Blinket heads over to Beijing. 358 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 8: Well that's I mean, I think the question is how 359 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 8: much cheology or how much credibility do these Republican candidates 360 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 8: for president have on foreign policy? 361 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 5: You know, Trump made China the enemy, right, you know, 362 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 5: very large tariffs. 363 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 8: And then with COVID, you know, blaming China. 364 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 5: How's he going to walk that back? He's not going 365 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 5: to be able to do that. 366 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 8: And Ron DeSantis, you know, just had a big Asia 367 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 8: trip trying to sell himself as somebody who can negotiate 368 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 8: the world stage. 369 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 5: You know, Mike Pence has a pretty calm demeanor. What's 370 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 5: he going to do? How is he going to sell 371 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 5: himself this way? 372 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 8: And the rest of the candidates don't really have except 373 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 8: for Rinickki Haley have a lot of foreign policy experience. 374 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,360 Speaker 8: So who's got the credibility in the Republican primary on 375 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 8: China and China. 376 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 5: Doesn't even know? 377 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 8: I mean, who do you really look to and say 378 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 8: this person could get elected and we can do business 379 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 8: with them. You know, that's where Biden has been somewhat 380 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 8: measured with China, as you just point out, you know, 381 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 8: Secretary Stata sort of attacking China but not attacking China, 382 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,959 Speaker 8: and that's going to be somewhat calming as a signal, 383 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 8: I think to the business community, Wendy. 384 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 2: This one nine that we haven't mentioned Kevina Youngkin Wheny 385 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 2: does this feeling at the moment from people I speak 386 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 2: to that the worst that governed descentist does, or rather 387 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 2: the fact that he's not improving the more Governor Youngkin 388 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 2: thinks about making a run. How are you thinking about 389 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 2: that one? 390 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,719 Speaker 8: No, I just don't know that he has, you know, 391 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 8: the ability to jump to the national stage with any 392 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 8: force or energy. 393 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 5: He's got a good platform. 394 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 8: He won an election against somebody was well known and 395 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 8: not always well liked, term a call up in Virginia, 396 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 8: so he got kind of lucky with his opposition. 397 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 5: And Virginia is still a swing state. 398 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 8: It's swung more to the right recently, but it's still 399 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 8: a swing state. 400 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 5: Do you really nominate for your nominee. 401 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 8: Somebody who cannot absolutely deliver their own state? You know, 402 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 8: DeSantis will deliver Florida, so al Gore did not deliver Tennessee. 403 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 5: These are things strategic. People worry about. 404 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 8: Money people worry about can he sell himself really to 405 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 8: money people to make a big enough launch. 406 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,640 Speaker 2: Interesting, Wendy just wanted for to get your perspective. Wendy 407 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:57,400 Speaker 2: shall have there of Brown University. 408 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 1: Alberto Garlo of Andromeda Capital, John, I want you to 409 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: take bring in Alberto here, and I want you to 410 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: bring in me in off the detailed discussion I'm an 411 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: off camera yesterday at PIMCO about what the moderate end 412 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 1: and the long ends going to do. And you mentioned 413 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: in the break the term premium. Bring that into the 414 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: shock that we could see priced down in a higher 415 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: long term mul Well. 416 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 2: I think you have to start with the inflation target 417 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 2: of the Federal Reserve, which is two percent, and you 418 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 2: have to make a call on what they're going to tolerate. 419 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 2: Pimco believes they'll tolerate two point something. 420 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 4: Claire has been very visible on the former. 421 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 2: Fed Vice chair, and ultimately they're going to carry on 422 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 2: forecasting a return to two whilst accepting and tolerating two 423 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:40,479 Speaker 2: points something. So something may be even approaching three. And 424 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 2: with that in mind, there is a call on the 425 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 2: long end that you start to price in and rebuild 426 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 2: this so called term premium around the inflation story, and 427 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 2: you end up with a steeper curve, So that's the 428 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,160 Speaker 2: long end yields shifting higher. This is the call right now, 429 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,199 Speaker 2: Alberto from the likes of PIMCO and I think that 430 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 2: you're thinking about a similar thing. 431 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 9: So look, we had five hundred basis points off hikes 432 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 9: and the job market is still pretty solid. So there's 433 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 9: something central bankers are not doing, and that's the long 434 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 9: end of curves. If you think about a large company 435 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 9: in the US, you can fund a three point six 436 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 9: percent roughly plus a spread, and then you can invest 437 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 9: in T bills that's a carry trade. Same for homeowners. 438 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,360 Speaker 9: Ninety eight percent of all owners, according to Goman Sex Research, 439 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 9: has a mortgage that was issued at lower rates. So 440 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 9: if you just hike the short end even to six percent, 441 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 9: that's not really tightening. You're doing half of your job 442 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 9: as the Federal Reserve. So what you really need to 443 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 9: do is to make sure that the long end funding 444 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 9: costs also goes up. That's how you tighten financial conditions, 445 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 9: and so far that hasn't happened. So it's really you know, 446 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 9: if central bankers are serious about what they're doing, there 447 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 9: needs to be some steepening in the in the five 448 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 9: year and ten year point of the curve, and that's 449 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 9: really what's going to hurt financial conditions. That's going to 450 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 9: tighten as prices. But that hasn't happened yet. 451 00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 4: So let's make the policy call. 452 00:20:58,400 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 2: Do you think they need to rethink Q to say, 453 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 2: the kind of maturities they let roll off, maybe even 454 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:03,439 Speaker 2: think about selling. 455 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,719 Speaker 9: So suppose you get to target to pose, you know, 456 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 9: you hike close to high five maybe six percent, and 457 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 9: that inflation remains above two percent. We think it will 458 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 9: be above three at the end of this year in 459 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 9: the US, and what do you do with QT? You know, 460 00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 9: you need to start thinking about QT. You can't just 461 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 9: hike the short term rate, and so you need to 462 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 9: think about balance sheet reduction. There are no targets on that. 463 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 9: Remember the Bank of Indian told briefly about it at 464 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 9: the end of May, and guilds wide and fifty basis 465 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 9: points in a ten year so there's a lot of 466 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 9: sensitivity there. There's a lot of banks but also non 467 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 9: bank financial institutions that are long duration, and we need 468 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,680 Speaker 9: as prices to come down. So we're not going to 469 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 9: have a recession here, but we are in an asset 470 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 9: price recession. The investible world is shrinking. You know, China 471 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 9: potentially is not investible, and so everyone is going into 472 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,880 Speaker 9: fewer assets in the US, like tech or like high 473 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 9: quality credit. Everyone is long high quality credit. You know, 474 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 9: surprise surprises has a very high so we don't like 475 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 9: it in this environment where there's a lot of treasurations 476 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 9: and the long enough curves can steepen. 477 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 5: But there's this issue. 478 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 6: If you do see exactly the scenario that you're talking about, 479 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 6: which is a surprisingly hakish fusual reserve, wouldn't that be 480 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 6: a huge support for the dollar, especially in this non 481 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,400 Speaker 6: recession kind of period where people are consolidating their wagers 482 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 6: on an area of dynamism and growth. 483 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,719 Speaker 9: Look, the paint right now is clearly you know, market's 484 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 9: going up and you know other currency is going up. 485 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 9: But if we have a persistently hokish central bank and 486 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 9: if the long end goes up, and then the consequences 487 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 9: for markets are pretty heavy. I know we're having big 488 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 9: set fourteen now. Credit spreads in CDs in particular record lows, 489 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 9: so you know there's some pockets of value, but you 490 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 9: want to really be careful about that moving the second 491 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,360 Speaker 9: half of the year, where liquidity is going to contract. 492 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 9: There's a lot of treasurations e CBQT and then the 493 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 9: boj exiting you've got control. 494 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 6: How do you play though pain trade? 495 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 9: So essentially it's very important to be able to stay 496 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 9: in the trade. 497 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: Here. 498 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 9: There are some longs that are very interesting with double 499 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 9: digit yields. So you know, obviously rates are higher, but 500 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 9: you can get ten percent plus yields on credit in 501 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 9: some nichues of the market. Some of them are in Europe, 502 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:20,360 Speaker 9: which has been on love. 503 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 4: Give us an example of that double digit yield ware. 504 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 9: So you know, talk about national champion banks in Greece 505 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 9: or Italy. Greece is going to investment grade this year 506 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 9: post elections. So there's very few countries that are going 507 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 9: into the investable universe from being less investible, and Greece 508 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 9: is one of them, from high yield to investment grade. 509 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 2: This is what you're doing, So, I mean, I can 510 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 2: name the names you're thinking about the UNI credits. So 511 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:48,159 Speaker 2: this world, these big banks, national champion banks, Italy, across Europe, 512 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 2: is that what you've been doing. 513 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,959 Speaker 9: It's more popular now, but obviously in March and April, 514 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 9: you know, there was a big opportunity to buy some 515 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 9: of these and so we're keeping them. And then also 516 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 9: so European high yield. You know, we're being a differential 517 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 9: around six months or or maybe longer in the credit 518 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 9: cycle between Europe and US. So the faults are going 519 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 9: to rise, but they're going to say two and a 520 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 9: half to four in Europe, they're probably going to five 521 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 9: in the US. Everyone is long high quality credit. It's 522 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,919 Speaker 9: the easiest call, but spreads a seventy basis points on 523 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 9: investment on investment grade. They don't really pay you. So 524 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 9: you need to write, you need to barble your portfolio, 525 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 9: You need to have some bills if you want and 526 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 9: have some high yield. 527 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 6: Has there ever been a time where you've finished positive 528 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 6: on European banks? And I ask this because you flagged 529 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 6: the joke that was the first thing that an alien 530 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 6: does what he lands on Earth, he destroys the European bank. 531 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 6: So why is it that now you think this time 532 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 6: is different? 533 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,239 Speaker 9: So that's that's basically tells you that people normally are 534 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:47,640 Speaker 9: pretty bearish on you know, on Europe, and we had 535 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 9: peak bearishness in March and April, so that's where I 536 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 9: got excited. Unfortunately, the window was very short. It wasn't 537 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 9: like it wasn't a long lived panic, but there's still 538 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 9: value and look, we do things, something else will break 539 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 9: between now and your end, so we're keeping some powder dry. 540 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 6: How much does China really factor into whether you're going 541 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 6: to be willing to double down on your European vet? 542 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 9: So, look, China has definitely been a drag on EMS. 543 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,959 Speaker 9: There's a lot of stressed credits in EMS, a lot 544 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 9: of countries that have restructured, but unfortunately a lot of 545 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:24,959 Speaker 9: value traps there in Europe. The Chinese did the foreigner 546 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,919 Speaker 9: man is weaker, but domestic spending is really high. There 547 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 9: is no government even in the periphery that has talked 548 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 9: about US thirty as far as I can remember. So 549 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,040 Speaker 9: that's that's very supportive. 550 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: Nice fun talk. How did Napoli do it? I mean 551 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 1: Napoli was not considered. How did Naples in Italy do 552 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: so well this year? 553 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 9: I mean Naples is always a contrarian trade, right, it 554 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 9: took twenty years since Maradona, but okay, we call that. 555 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 1: But Tatanam is a new coach in the last twenty 556 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 1: four hours from Glasgow, Right, they dig from the best 557 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: practices of Napoli. Is that how you pronounce it? Yeah, Napoli. 558 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 1: What is the best practices in Napoli that the loser 559 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: Tots can do that? When was the last time the 560 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 1: Tots won, like eighteen? 561 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 4: I can I can tell you, Yeah, what is the. 562 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: Best practice to make it a surprise next year where 563 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 1: Tottenham does better than good? 564 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 9: I think they've been investing in players that were undervalued, 565 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 9: and you know, it's definitely a team that has less 566 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 9: less capacity, less spending capacity than others. But you know, 567 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 9: so shows you that. 568 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 2: They've got a history of picking up some fantastic players 569 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,160 Speaker 2: and they're sending them on for huge sums of money. 570 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 2: So this song is going to be interesting to see 571 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 2: whether they can hold onto those players. 572 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 4: Really interesting. 573 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 2: Manager is mister Delaarentis, who owns Napoli also I think 574 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 2: in the family. 575 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:42,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, in the family. 576 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 2: They also own Bari, which is the city in Pulia, 577 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 2: tom which is looking to get promoted this year to Sarahas. 578 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 2: So that family's having a great year, fantastic. 579 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: I just it's exciting. I see all these changes, and 580 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 1: Frank it's Greek to me. I like the Greek investment, 581 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 1: great idea, but the idea here I've taught him. Having 582 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 1: a new coach from Glasgow. Is that right? 583 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 4: From Celtic? 584 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 1: From Celtic, it's pronounced from. 585 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 4: Rangis what's he going coming in? 586 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 1: Raise? Hell? 587 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 4: They need to spend money and do something about that squad. 588 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:12,639 Speaker 2: I just got to fit and tell them this is 589 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,880 Speaker 2: going to be a repeat of what we've seen before 590 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 2: time and time again with that club. I better, We've 591 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: got to leave it there. I better Gala Andromeda Capital Management. 592 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: It is a global growth story that's under adjustment. John, 593 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: let's review it now quickly. I usually don't do this, 594 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: but I think it's so important. You've got four five, 595 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 1: six global institutions. I'm going to say, get to go 596 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: open as at the IMF and our team with the 597 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg OECD, who are going to do in a moment 598 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 1: here and BOI, it's been underplayed. The shift out one year, 599 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 1: two years, three years to something. I remember talking to 600 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 1: Larry and about this years ago and the benchmark was 601 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:03,160 Speaker 1: three percent growth is a global recession. I think we're there, yeah, 602 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: and it's been underplayed. OECD readjusting and recalibrating clear Lambardelli 603 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 1: joins us right now, chief economists at OECD in Paris 604 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 1: with their adjustment. Claire, let me just cut to the 605 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 1: chase at the margin. Does OECD confirm the shocking duration 606 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 1: of weakness that IMF modeled a number of months ago. 607 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 10: We have global growth improving over the period that we're 608 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,919 Speaker 10: forecasting today. So we expect global growth to moderate to 609 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,439 Speaker 10: two point seven percent in twenty twenty three and then 610 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 10: edge up slightly to two point nine percent in twenty 611 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 10: twenty four. These are historically low numbers for the global 612 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 10: for the global economy, we've seen higher rates in the past. 613 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 10: So the outlook is certainly without change and without action, 614 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,920 Speaker 10: the outlook would be for global growth to return, but 615 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:54,959 Speaker 10: to be at weak levels. 616 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: Claire, these are shocking numbers. Am I wrong? And for 617 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 1: all of our listeners viewers that three percent growth is 618 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,840 Speaker 1: a global recession. With that sort of three percent view 619 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 1: can always see these say it is a global recession. 620 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 10: It's not a global recession. We're projecting that the global 621 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 10: economy is going to grow at two point seven and 622 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,840 Speaker 10: then two point three percent. That's not a recession, but 623 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 10: it's a lower level of growth than we have seen historically. 624 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 6: Right now, when we look forward at the potential for 625 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 6: fiscal stimulus, you want governments to pull back. 626 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 5: Why so what we saw. 627 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 10: Is fiscal policy played a really important role during the crisis, 628 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 10: and in twenty twenty two, governments extended high levels of 629 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 10: fiscal support and that was necessary to prevent the impact 630 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 10: of the war being greater than it otherwise was. But 631 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 10: now as we're seeing prices, energy prices falling and some 632 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 10: other prices beginning to fall, it's time to target that 633 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 10: fiscal support better so that it's only going to the 634 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 10: vulnerable people who who need it, and it's time to 635 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 10: remove away from the blanket support that was put in 636 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,960 Speaker 10: place in immediate response to the crisis. 637 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 6: People have been predicting a recession for quite a while, 638 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 6: and we're at a time when in the US the 639 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 6: promise of artificial intelligence seems to be upending all of 640 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 6: the persimism and really pushing people into equities. How do 641 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 6: you feature the concept of artificial intelligence the concepts of 642 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 6: some of the technological advancements in your forecast, So as you. 643 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 10: Say, technology is evolving rapidly and the potential upside from 644 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 10: that in terms of productivity gain is potentially very very high. 645 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 10: It's quite at this early stage of understanding what the 646 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 10: impact of things are artificial intelligence can be. There are 647 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 10: some estimates out there at this point quite uncertain, and 648 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 10: so I think we're going to learn a lot over 649 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 10: the coming months and years about the impact of artificial 650 00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,719 Speaker 10: intelligence in terms of feeding it through to the numbers. 651 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 10: There's clearly a high potential upside from artificial intelligence in 652 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 10: terms of productivity and other technological advances, but quite hard 653 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 10: to put a number on that at the moment as 654 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 10: we're learning what it's capable of and also what the 655 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 10: other wider impacts will be on labor markets, on competition. 656 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:03,760 Speaker 1: And they're like bring an incredibly sophisticated British view of 657 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 1: economics which is enjoyed, and I mean they're facetiously. You've 658 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 1: enjoyed horrific inflation and enduring inflation in the United Kingdom. 659 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 1: Now the phrase it's tossed around. Bloomberg News mentions this 660 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 1: and maybe OECD is an inflation plagued recovery. What is 661 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 1: your optimism that the global system can disinflate. 662 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 10: So inflate we project inflation to four quite rapidly this 663 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 10: year and into twenty twenty four as well, from the 664 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 10: high levels that we've seen. Obviously, there is a risk 665 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 10: to that, particularly from core inflation and tight labor markets 666 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 10: in particular, I mean that wages are expected to rise. 667 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 10: That said, there's a lot of potential out there for 668 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 10: the labor market in terms of bringing more people into 669 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 10: the labor market, a lot of opportunity if we bring 670 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 10: more people into the labor market, that will help on 671 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 10: that side. So there's an opportunity to bring more women, 672 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 10: older workers, people with health conditions and disabilities. If you 673 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 10: bring more people into a labor market, that will use 674 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 10: some of those pressures. 675 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 2: Can we just talk about the nature of inflation and 676 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 2: the contribution from those tight labor markets to the headline 677 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,800 Speaker 2: inflation that we witness every single month. Just how important 678 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 2: is that tight labor market to the inflation pressure we're 679 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 2: seeing currently, because there is some debate around that as 680 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 2: to whether the Federal Reserve just still believe in that 681 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 2: dreaded tea word transitory and just wait a little longer. 682 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 10: I mean, obviously the picture differs for different countries, but 683 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 10: tight labor markets are a key part of what is 684 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 10: going on at the moment. They're a key part of 685 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 10: why we're seeing the headline wine. Headline inflation is coming down. 686 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 10: Core inflation is proving to be more persistent and in 687 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,280 Speaker 10: some ways is going up in some countries still, and 688 00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 10: that is mainly driven by tight labor markets and those 689 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 10: what we thought were in transitory inflationary pressures feeding into 690 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,000 Speaker 10: wage pressures, and so saying a little longer. 691 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 2: The latest on the OECD from the chief economists, Claire 692 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 2: Lombardaddy the Cliff. Wonderful to catch up with you. Thanks 693 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:53,200 Speaker 2: for that outlook. 694 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcasts on Apple, Spotify, and 695 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday 696 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,480 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com, the 697 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:10,160 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 698 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm 699 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,240 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and 700 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg