1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to the betting pros. It's down to 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: place your bet. So this bet Joey p Joe Pi's 3 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: Apia and this is BP NFL. It's down to look 4 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: ahead to Thursday night football. And wouldn't you know it, 5 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: the Steelers are playing in Cleveland, Scott Bogman's own Pittsburgh Steelers, 6 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 1: coming off a huge victory against as he likes to 7 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: call them, the Ratbirds. And we're gonna break down the 8 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: game for you. Another Indivision game, short week, not a 9 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: lot of travel, some weather all day that looks like 10 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: a lot of rain going on the forecast. We'll talk 11 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 1: about that too, how we feel that might impact up 12 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: of this game. But Scott Bogman, you gotta feel just terrific. 13 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: I know we talked about it a little bit on 14 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 1: Out of Bounds on the FP feed. How good you're 15 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 1: feeling about the Pittsburgh Steelers right now? Defense looks really good, 16 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson getting the job done. I mean, it's kind 17 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: of like the gift that keeps on giving because I 18 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: think as a Steeler fan, you probably had lower expectations 19 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: this year, but now, all of a sudden, I think 20 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: those expectations have been elevated quite a bit. 21 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 2: I mean, if we don't make the playoffs sitting at 22 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 2: eight and two right here, then I will be severely disappointed. 23 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: Right like you start out this well, it does feel 24 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 2: a little bit like the eleven and oh season, right like, 25 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 2: where this team is good, they're probably playing over their head. 26 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 2: But I think people just come to expect that with 27 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: the Tomlin team anymore. Is this team is going to 28 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 2: play over their head. Quarterback issues aren't one hundred percent resolved, 29 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 2: but they're way better. And look, Tomlin was one hundred 30 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: percent correct, and myself and every other Steeler fan was 31 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 2: incorrect in wanting Justin Fields to stick because Russell has 32 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 2: just simply led this offense to more points. So it 33 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 2: is working. 34 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: It is working, and it's working against some good teams too, 35 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: Washington and then obviously the Baltimore Ravens. So we'll see 36 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: if it works against a bad team this week. Before 37 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: we get to the breakdown for Thursday Night Football, don't 38 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: forget join our NFL podcast group again. You could sink 39 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: your picks for free when you download the Betting pros app. 40 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: Well again, you could use the quick pick feature to 41 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: make picks on Betting Pros on the app end. When 42 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: you do, and you're part of our NFL podcast group, 43 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: you can get some cool stuff. So we're getting a 44 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: chance to get weekly prizes and monthly prizes. Elevate your 45 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 1: betting strategies and join the conversation today at betting pros 46 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,839 Speaker 1: dot com slash NFL contest. Again, that's betting Pros dot 47 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: com slash NFL Contest. You don't even have to make 48 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: a bet, you just have to make picks and you 49 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: go in some cool free stuff. So download the apps, 50 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: sink your sportsbooks for free, and go ahead and join 51 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: the contest today. Boggs, let's take a look at the 52 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: tail of the tape for these two teams here. Maybe 53 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: it will resemble a little bit of the Jake Paul 54 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: Mike Tyson fight. Just kind of beat around each other 55 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: a little bit. You know, I don't know if the 56 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 1: Steelers are going to be bowing at the end in 57 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter with a few seconds left. I wouldn't 58 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: put it past Russell Wilson to do something weird. 59 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:43,399 Speaker 2: Like that, though. 60 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: That feels like something he would do. The Pittsburgh Steelers 61 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites, in this one. You're 62 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: getting this at Points Bet at minus one oh five. 63 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 1: Of the best line you're fine right now is ESPN 64 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: bet at plus three and a half at minus one 65 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: oh five for the Cleveland Browns thirty six thirty six 66 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: and a half. That's kind of where you're finding this 67 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: game sitting at most sportsbooks right now. And if you 68 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: like Cleveland Brown's for the upset and I don't, it's 69 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: plus one sixty five. Now here's the only question box. 70 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: Is this a bit of a trap game? After a 71 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: very emotional victory on Sunday? Short week? I know it's 72 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: not a big travel you know. I kept saying all 73 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: week how the Destroit lines don't understand the definition of 74 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:17,519 Speaker 1: trap game. 75 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 3: They just don't. 76 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 1: And once again they just obliterated a lesser opponent at 77 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: home Pittsburgh. Here it feels like an inevitable letdown. But 78 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: at the same time, the Cleveland Browns have been so 79 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: miserable these last few games that I just can't go 80 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: against them this week. 81 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, where do they get trapped? I guess 82 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 2: is my question. That's two questions. 83 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't find it either. 84 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 2: I think that if they do, the phase would be 85 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: Miles Garrett just wrecking everything, right, Like that is the 86 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 2: fear when you play a team like Cleveland with a 87 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 2: player at the level of Miles Garrett, you know, is 88 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 2: that A. He's going to just wreck your game plan 89 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 2: and B he's going to swing helmets at your team. 90 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 2: So you know, these are the things on Thursday night 91 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 2: football that you worry about. 92 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: So it wasn't a Thursday night. 93 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 2: I forgot it was a Thursday night. Yeah, it was 94 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 2: Thursday or Monday, I can't remember. 95 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: It was a primetime game for sure. Yeah, it was 96 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: a prime time game for sure. 97 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, look, uh, the Cleveland look miserable 98 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 2: against the Saints, right, and I know the Rizzler has 99 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 2: the Saints moving up and down the field or whatever, 100 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 2: but they got beat by Taysom Hill. What's George Pickens 101 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 2: gonna do to them? You know, what's Naujing and Warren 102 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 2: gonna do. So you know it's a division game, it's 103 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 2: a heated rivalry. Uh, these teams don't like each other, 104 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 2: so you know there's always something weird that can happen. 105 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 2: But these two teams are heading in opposite directions. In 106 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: my opinion right now. It's the Steelers are ascending and 107 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 2: kind of finding their groove on offense in Cleveland is 108 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 2: clunky right now and moving pieces, and Nick Chubb has 109 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 2: not shown that explosion. Now, this is a big you know, 110 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,039 Speaker 2: micka Fitzpatrick is a guy that hurt Chubb last year, 111 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 2: So this is a big revenge game, I guess you 112 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 2: could say for Nick Chubb. So maybe there's some angle 113 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 2: that they latch onto and they just fight for that thing. 114 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 2: But I don't know, in my opinion, taking my homeriism 115 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,799 Speaker 2: out of it, these two teams are going in opposite 116 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 2: directions right now. 117 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 1: Well, I definitely feel like it. I mean the record 118 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: certainly suggest that too. It's just a matter of is 119 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 1: there a letdown? And that happens sometimes with teams big 120 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: emotional victories. 121 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,359 Speaker 2: That's a college thing. It's not pros. 122 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: It's not it's not And I see it happen in 123 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,719 Speaker 1: the NFL every single year. Now hasn't happened as much 124 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: this year because they've had a very have and have 125 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: not sort of NFL this season. I feel like the 126 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: parody is not quite what it's been in years past, 127 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: and it's large in part due to the inexperience and 128 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: youth of the quarterback positions that you're seeing in a 129 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: lot of spots, or just the flat out terrible quarterback play. 130 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 2: Well, you have every veterans in this game. 131 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 1: Right exactly. So yeah, look, I get that. I'm staying 132 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: away from the game itself. I like some of the props. 133 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: We're gonna get to those in a second. And for 134 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: the props, make sure and just to be clear too, 135 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: you're in on Pittsburgh on the money line, which again 136 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 1: is tough. I'll show you how to make money on 137 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: the money line with Pittsburgh in just a moment here. 138 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: And you're also on the over for this game, correct, Yeah, I. 139 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,119 Speaker 2: Did thirty six and a half. It's not enough points 140 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 2: in the NFL game. So okay, even if there's weather 141 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 2: conditions and stuff like that, Yeah, if we get to 142 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 2: under forty. I mean, even in these conditions, I'm more 143 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 2: concerned about the wind than I am. 144 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: See. Wind is always the problem in that stadium too, 145 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 1: typically King right, So rain is not my problem, it's 146 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:24,119 Speaker 1: the wind. 147 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,159 Speaker 2: But are you gonna doubt Chris Boswell and any conditions 148 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 2: to go out there and nail his field goals? You shouldn't, 149 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: because I doubt Kurt last week. 150 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: I doubt Justin Tucker to make any field goals nowadays. 151 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: And I'm just saying, man, and is it not the 152 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: first game this has happened for him? 153 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 2: But sorry, I still love Justin Tucker because. 154 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: There you go. But there you go, You guys, go 155 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:45,599 Speaker 1: back away. 156 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 2: It's even longer than he was long. 157 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: That's true. Well luckily otherwise he would have been left back. 158 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of the props. Remember, go to 159 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat sheet over on Betting Pros to 160 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,239 Speaker 1: make sure you're finding the best props for every single game. 161 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: We take the the fantasy projections, and we take the 162 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,679 Speaker 1: over unders. We show you the best overs, the best unders, 163 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: and then the best place is to bet them. So 164 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: go to betting pros dot com slash props to check 165 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: that out today. And Boggs, let's check out some of 166 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 1: yours too. Let's start with Russell Wilson. The numbers twenty 167 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 1: six and a half pass attempts. We're going over or under. 168 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go over on this one. And it's 169 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: because every single start Russell Wilson has had, he's gone 170 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 2: over this pass attempts total, and opponents are averaging twenty 171 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 2: eight point seven attempts per game versus Cleveland in the 172 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:33,679 Speaker 2: last month, it's really been you know, car had twenty 173 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 2: seven last week in a stomping of Cleveland. They didn't 174 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 2: need to bass the ball that much. Herbert had twenty seven, 175 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 2: Lamar had thirty eight. You know, so Burrow had twenty five, 176 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 2: but that was when they were having some injuries at 177 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 2: the wide receiver spot and kind of finding their rhythms. 178 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 2: So Russell has passed this constantly. Opponents against Cleveland have 179 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 2: passed this constantly. I know there's some rain, but again, 180 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 2: unless the wind is crazy all night, which it might be, 181 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 2: it is the mistake by the lake, right, so it 182 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: is that there is a possibility for that. But unless 183 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,239 Speaker 2: the wind is crazy all night, I just I think 184 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 2: Russell is going to be able to pass. I think 185 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 2: he will pass. And you know this defense is gettable. 186 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 2: They showed that last well. 187 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: Well, the secondary especially, there's so much miscommunication. There's so 188 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: many times where you watch these games with Cleveland where 189 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: guys are just wide open. You saw it with MVS, 190 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: you saw it the week before. It just like it 191 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: just happens to them. The next one. Here is a 192 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: really curious number it's only fifty six and a half 193 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: for George Pickens and the receiving yards. And I'm trying 194 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: to wonder why Vegas is baiting me so easily for 195 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: this one, because he's gone over this four straight weeks. 196 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: It was at seventy and a half of the last 197 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: game and I bet it and I'd smashed. You know, 198 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 1: he went to eighty nine, so that was an easy one. 199 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: So this is so low it almost feels like kind 200 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 1: of offensive in a way. So what's happening here? Because 201 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: whenever I see something that's really fishy number like this 202 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: is this is you know, we're going from seventy and 203 00:08:58,080 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: a half to fifty six and a half. And I 204 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: know we're going from the Ravens to the Browns, but 205 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: to the Brown secondary playing all that much better? 206 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 2: Not really, No, the overall secondary isn't but Denzel Ward 207 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 2: is very good, and I think that is that is 208 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 2: the reason that this number is kind of low. Plus 209 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 2: the weather, as you mentioned before, could make this a 210 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 2: little bit. But we know George Pickens picks these up 211 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 2: in chunks. You know, he is a a dot guy. 212 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 2: He is exactly this is why he fits with Russell 213 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: Wilson so well is because Russell throws the rainbow ball, 214 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 2: and a fifty to fifty ball to Pickens is at 215 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 2: eighty twenty ball to him, really honestly so and they 216 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 2: have hit their stride in the starts with russ One 217 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 2: hundred and eleven, seventy four, ninety one eighty nine have 218 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: been George Pickens numbers. So I guess maybe like there's 219 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 2: a bunch of factors that could contribute to this going under. 220 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 2: I understand that the weather, maybe Pittsburgh just blows out Cleveland. 221 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 2: They don't need to put the ball up right, that 222 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 2: that could be a thing. I just as you said, 223 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 2: the spread is three and a half. It's not like 224 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 2: it's seven, it's not ten. It's Pittsburgh drags you into 225 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 2: the mud and beats you up. That that's what they do. 226 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,079 Speaker 1: And on top of which, now you're seeing that number 227 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: even lower in some other spots. By the way, because 228 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 1: I'm looking right now and must have updated this morning 229 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 1: because we put the show together last night, and looking 230 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: this morning too, that fifty six and a half right now, 231 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: I'm finding a Let me see if I could pull 232 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 1: this up here just a. 233 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 2: Second, it was fifty five and a half last night 234 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 2: on DK when I looked, so it went up one yard. 235 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 1: It is changing. It's weird because there's some there fifty 236 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,599 Speaker 1: five and a half on one end of the spectrum 237 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: and then all the way on like ESPN BET it's 238 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half. So it's very curious that 239 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 1: it's such a wide spec. Usually you see it within 240 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: like a yard maybe two, three or four. Like, that's 241 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 1: very odd to see that. 242 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 2: So again I'm guessing I'm gussing mainly as the weather report, 243 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,839 Speaker 2: but I mean, why do we believe these weather reports? 244 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 1: Well, but this is what you're spending for. Like you 245 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: look at bed MGM, You're like, fifty five and a half. Boom, 246 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 1: let's take it and then hope for the best there. 247 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: I mean, this is is pretty easy, you know. 248 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that the Yeah, the weather reports that 249 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 2: I've seen specifically, you know, because I have to look 250 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 2: at a bunch for college, have been just awful at 251 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 2: predicting the weather. I mean, I'm like, oh, look rain 252 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 2: in this game. No rain, none. 253 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: Look, you know we're recording this, you know, on Wednesday, 254 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 1: so obviously you know, if you see something change in 255 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 1: the patterns, change your patterns accordingly, I mean, that's what 256 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: we're trying to do here. Let's talk about Jerry Judy 257 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: because the pattern seems to be changing with him too. 258 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: You're looking at the receptions number here and the number 259 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: is three and a half. Now he has gone over 260 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 1: this in the last three games here six excuse me, 261 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 1: five in week eight, in Week nine seven, and then 262 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: in week eleven six. So this seems like another smash 263 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: potentially again you know, circumstances being what they are, but 264 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: I assume this is also an over for you. 265 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely an over for me. Thirty targets in 266 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 2: three games with Winston as the starter for Jerry Judy, 267 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 2: seven and six receptions in those games. As you mentioned, 268 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 2: the spread suggests that they're going to be down late 269 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 2: and trying to play comeback. And we saw him get 270 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 2: the big hitter last week, so I think that he 271 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 2: is just becoming more involved. And Jamis Winston in his 272 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 2: starts and it's taking over is averaging forty four point 273 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 2: three pass attempts. So you know, Cedric Tillman, Eli Moore 274 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 2: and Joe Ku and Judy, you have a lot of 275 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 2: targets to throw the ball to. But I think they'll 276 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 2: move Judy around enough. As long as you know Joey 277 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 2: Porter Jr. Who just came off an amazing game, is 278 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 2: not on him the whole game. I think he can 279 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 2: get the four catches. 280 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:40,319 Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to the next one here. I 281 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: know you like the longest receptions. Let's talk about Cindric Tillman. 282 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 1: The numbers nineteen and a half and you like the 283 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: over at minus one ten. 284 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, forty targets in the last four games, and he's 285 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 2: hit this in three of those last four games, twenty five, 286 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:57,439 Speaker 2: thirty eight, seventeen, twenty two. And Pittsburgh gives up long receptions. 287 00:12:57,520 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 2: We saw even last week in the win, they gave 288 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 2: up forty two and twenty three and twenty two to 289 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 2: three different players. And they gave up longer than this 290 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: to McLaurin and McCaffrey, logging in this to Slayton and 291 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 2: THEO Johnson, longer than this to Hall and Wilson. So 292 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 2: the Steelers when they do give up this is the bend, 293 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 2: but don't break. When they do break, they give up 294 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 2: huge receptions. And Cedric Tilman is your ADOC guy for Cleveland. 295 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 2: He's going to be the guy that is there to 296 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 2: stretch the field. They're going to take a couple shots 297 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 2: at him, and all he has to do is come 298 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 2: down with one. So I think he can do that. 299 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 2: And I've hit this like two weeks in a row, 300 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 2: so I'm liking it. 301 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the defensive side, because if 302 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: you don't pick a defensive prop when the Pittsburgh Steelers 303 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: are playing like, that's just misery. So we can't have 304 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 1: a show like that. So Boggs Thursday, NFL Ball, Pittsburgh Steelers. 305 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: I assume we're going on the Steelers side. What do 306 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: you have? 307 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 2: Herbig? Let's get a herbig sack. This one. Shout out 308 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 2: to our boy Pat Fitzmorris, this Wisconsin guy, he loves 309 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 2: it when I talk about herbig. 310 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 3: Here. 311 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 2: He does eighty two percent snapshare last week with Alex. 312 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 2: Heis it down. The extra chips and blocks are gonna 313 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 2: be rolled towards TJ. Watt. 314 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 1: We know that. 315 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 2: And the Browns are giving up four point six sacks 316 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 2: per game most of the NFL. That has dropped since 317 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 2: Winston took over to three point seven, but that would 318 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 2: make them the second worst in the NFL. So the 319 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 2: offensive line is still bad in Cleveland is the point. 320 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 2: Herbig has missed four games with injury, but he came 321 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 2: back a couple of weeks ago. He still has the 322 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 2: seventh highest pass rush grade according to PFF. He's players 323 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 2: that are just ahead of him, Hutchinson, Garrett Solomon, Hendrickson 324 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 2: Parsons and Watt just below him, Greg Russo, Nick Bosa, 325 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 2: Josh Allen, Alex high Smith, Keon White and Jared Verse, 326 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 2: who are all having fantastic years. So I think if 327 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 2: Herbig was, you know, playing for a different team and 328 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 2: he didn't have this injury, we would be talking about 329 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 2: him a lot more. And right now, the prop is 330 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 2: plus one seventy five for a quarter of a sack, 331 00:14:57,720 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 2: So even if he's just on the back end of 332 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 2: it TJ. Watsak and they give them credit for half, 333 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 2: you get this. So this is my favorite bet of 334 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 2: this game is because it's plus money and that offensive 335 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 2: line is bad in Cleveland, and they're throwing the ball 336 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: forty four times a game, maybe less because of the weather, 337 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 2: but I still forty. 338 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: Of them to the other team, So that makes it 339 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: really difficult. Let's get to the same game parlay for 340 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: Thursday night football. Keeping this one simple I'm taking the 341 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers on the money line again. I don't want 342 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: to muck around with the overs and unders or the 343 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: points with this one. Just in division game, short week, 344 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: whether variables, I don't like varyballs. I think the Steelers 345 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: win no matter what. If they don't, then what was 346 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: all of that for on Sunday? 347 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 2: Damn it. 348 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 1: So give me the Pittsburgh Steelers and give me George 349 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: Pickens to score a touchdown. You put those two things together, 350 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: you're gonna get almost three to one plus two to 351 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: ninety seven is the number that I got on it 352 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: over on FanDuel. So go check that out. And if 353 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: you want to play around with the same game parlays, 354 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: you could do it on the Betting pros app too. 355 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: With the same Game parlay builder, you can combine multiple 356 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 1: bets with a single NFL game. You can leverage the inside. 357 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: It's like correlated bet recommendations, EV ratings cover probability. You 358 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: can use the prop betchy sheet. Use all the tools 359 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: and put together your favorite same game parlay and perfect 360 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: your betting strategies by analyzing our overall correlation grades and 361 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: projections and stay ahead following the latest sgp's placed by 362 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: fellow betters. So start building winning parlays today at bettingpros 363 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: dot com, slash parlay or on the Betting Pros app today. 364 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: All right, let's get after here. Start with the touchdown 365 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 1: calls because we've got the same one. But I found 366 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: a better number than you, d ha. 367 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going George Pickens plus one ninety five. And 368 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 2: look this is big plus money and you found it 369 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 2: better because George Pickens only has two touchdowns. He does, 370 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 2: so he does. They get down to the goal line. 371 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 2: They like to give the Baldonagi right, so they also 372 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 2: don't get to the goal line very often. Six field 373 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 2: goals to beat Baltimore last week, so they did throw that. 374 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: I mean, Donahu Washington just needs to jump. I don't 375 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 2: know if you saw that pick rush through in the 376 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 2: back of the end zone against Baltimore. But like Donahud 377 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 2: Washington standing there, flat footage. Just go up and get it. 378 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 2: You're six eight or whatever you are. Just I mean, 379 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 2: even if you slide a whole credit card underneath you 380 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 2: when you jump, give yourself a little bit, stick your 381 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 2: arms up. Come on, man. So I agree, but yeah, 382 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 2: I Pickens. 383 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: I think it is that regular play. 384 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: That's where I think your lights are on. 385 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 1: Yeah, and there were some moments too where you know 386 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 1: it's like, you know, not in bounds, you know, catching 387 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:23,200 Speaker 1: balls in the ends. Like there's been moments here with 388 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: the Steelers and Pickens where it's a lot of almosts two. 389 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: So that total been if you do the expected touchdown total, 390 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: we'll go call up Andrew Rickson to get that number. 391 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: I guarantee you it's probably much higher than two. You know, 392 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: it's probably more like five or six. So I'm gonna 393 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 1: go get this George Pickens number at plus two thirty. 394 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 1: That's where I found it. So again, this is why 395 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: I use the app, baby more than two to one. 396 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: Let's go put it together with the Steelers on the 397 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: money line and hopefully that's a very nice Thursday forever, buddy. 398 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 1: So go out there, have some fun, and just as 399 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: a quick shout out to from next week with the holidays, 400 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: just so you all know, we've got not one, not two, 401 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: but three Thursday night games or Thursday games, I should say, 402 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: because it's Thanksgivings, So we're gonna have Thursday. That's right 403 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 1: day afternoon night. You know, night came very soon for 404 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 1: the Cowboys, that's for sure in twenty twenty four, but 405 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 1: we're gonna be having a special for all of that, 406 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 1: so we're gonna be breaking those games down for you 407 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,119 Speaker 1: early next week, so you're prepared to make sure that 408 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: you have something to do while you're sitting around after 409 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: you eat all your Thanksgiving feast and you're betting on 410 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: a bunch of football games and also by Friday game too, 411 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: So we got a lot of standalone action for you 412 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 1: next week. So stay on top of the YouTube channel 413 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: again Betting Pros. Subscribe to the channel ring the Belts 414 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 1: that goes ding. We love having you here with us, 415 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 1: and also of course the podcast feed wherever you get 416 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,639 Speaker 1: your podcasts, so that'll do it for us. But the 417 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Scott Bogman. I'm 418 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,640 Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Enjoy Thursday night, 419 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: and hopefully Bogman Steelers don't lose because that will make 420 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: him very grouchy. We go very grouch. 421 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 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