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Speaker 1: On this episode of Newsworld, the debate about climate change

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Speaker 1: many times fails to mention the reasons we use fossil

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Speaker 1: fuels in the first place. Policies like the Green New

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Speaker 1: Deal really remind us that the wealthier countries can adopt

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Speaker 1: green policies as a fashion trend. But in reality, with

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Speaker 1: the growth and global population, particularly in China and India,

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Speaker 1: it's going to require us to think of new ways

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Speaker 1: to approach our energy needs. We cannot just rely on

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Speaker 1: renewable energy. We also need fossil fuels. In a new book,

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Speaker 1: Fossil Future, Why global human flourishing requires more oil, coal,

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Speaker 1: and natural gas, not less, Alex Epstein reveals the latest

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Speaker 1: data and new insights that will challenge everything you thought

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Speaker 1: you knew about energy consumption, the environment, and climate, and

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Speaker 1: why oil and natural gas are in fact life saving.

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Speaker 1: Here to discuss Fossil Future, I'm really pleased to welcome

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Speaker 1: my guest, Alex Epstein. He is an energy expert, industrial

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Speaker 1: policy fundit and founder of the Center for Industrial Progress,

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Speaker 1: which offers a positive, pro human alternative to the green movement. Alex,

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Speaker 1: thanks for joining me. Thanks for having me, Alex. What

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Speaker 1: was it that led you to decide you'd be a

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Speaker 1: voice on this issue, and that then led you to

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Speaker 1: write your very first book on the moral case for

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels. So people often think, oh, the fossil fuel

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Speaker 1: industry somehow hunted me down and saw me as a

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Speaker 1: prospect and just gave me this gilded lifestyle. And then

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Speaker 1: that's why I did it. So I didn't even know

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Speaker 1: anyone in the fossil fuel industry when I came up

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Speaker 1: with my ideas. But the advantage I had is that

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Speaker 1: I have a philosophy background. I'm particularly interested in environmental philosophy,

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Speaker 1: and I have a pro human environmental philosophy that believes

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Speaker 1: that human impact is good and can actually make the

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Speaker 1: world a much better place for human beings. And I

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Speaker 1: noticed that the thinking about fossil fuels was very hostile

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Speaker 1: to all of our human impact and ignored all the

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Speaker 1: ways in which fossil fuels impacted the world for the better.

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Speaker 1: So they ignored the benefits, and I believe exaggerated the

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Speaker 1: side effects, and so I was really interested in learning

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Speaker 1: about it for myself what the full benefits and side

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Speaker 1: effects were. And then I became crazy. In my previous

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Speaker 1: view pro fossil fuels, and then I felt like, well,

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Speaker 1: I have to tell everyone this. If I think the

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Speaker 1: whole world is wrong, I got it, say it. And

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Speaker 1: then the Moral Case for Fossil Fuels. I happened to

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Speaker 1: write an essay that went viral and a New York

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Speaker 1: agent found me and he said, I think I can

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Speaker 1: get you a book contract for this, and I said,

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Speaker 1: there's no mainstream publisher that will take this. But then

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Speaker 1: we got Penguin Random House and then wrote. Six months,

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Speaker 1: Moral Case for Fossil Fuels was done. And part of

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Speaker 1: the reason I did another one is because it was

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Speaker 1: so effective in six months with the little I knew then,

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Speaker 1: and I thought, well, I know ten times more now,

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Speaker 1: issues more important than ever. So I'm going to spend

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Speaker 1: three years and write the best one imaginable. Well, we

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Speaker 1: should tell people the very first one, The Moral Case

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Speaker 1: for Fossil Fuels, was on the New yorkais best seller list. Yes,

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Speaker 1: so for a guy who is from a standing start

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Speaker 1: developing ideas and communicating them, you clearly are having an impact.

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Speaker 1: And I think your new book on fossil future is

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Speaker 1: going to have a profound impact because you correctly recenter

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Speaker 1: us on the morality of leaving behind hundreds of millions

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Speaker 1: of people in lives of misery, so we can feel

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Speaker 1: good about ourselves a cocktail parties couldn't buy it better myself.

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Speaker 1: There's been a warning of the climate catastrophe for several decades.

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Speaker 1: Are the warnings correct? Is the concern as high as

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Speaker 1: these climate change activists say. What's really interesting about the

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Speaker 1: warnings that you see is there is this prediction that

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Speaker 1: we would have not only global warming, which is true directionally,

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Speaker 1: but that this would be a catastrophe and that millions

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Speaker 1: and sometimes you got up to predictions of a billion

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Speaker 1: people would die. And what's really fascinating. The data set

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Speaker 1: that really changed my thinking on this is that if

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Speaker 1: you look at how many people are dying from climate

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Speaker 1: related disasters, the rate of climate related disaster depths is

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Speaker 1: actually down ninety eight percent in the last century. So

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Speaker 1: we're actually far safer from climate than we used to be.

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Speaker 1: And I attribute a lot of that to fossil fuel.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think of it as we're in a

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Speaker 1: climate crisis. I think of it as we're in a

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Speaker 1: climate renaissance, even though we do impact climate. So, as

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Speaker 1: I understand from your studies since eighteen fifty all of

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Speaker 1: the fossil fueled civilization increase the amount of CO two

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Speaker 1: in the atmosphere from just under zero point zero three

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Speaker 1: percent that's two hundred and eighty parts per million to

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Speaker 1: just over zero point zero four percent, that's four hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty parts per million. And that's such a small

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Speaker 1: increase in a global system that there's apparently no direct

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Speaker 1: correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide. Certainly at that level

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Speaker 1: of change, it's a small percentage of the atmosphere for sure.

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Speaker 1: Said the numbers are right, These are not controversial, point

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Speaker 1: zero three percent to point zero four percent, but you

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Speaker 1: know the change in it is almost a fifty percent change,

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Speaker 1: and it's not a trivial change that you would expect

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Speaker 1: to do nothing. And I do think it has had

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Speaker 1: a warming impact. Now it's true there's not a perfect

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Speaker 1: correlation between them. I think the most important thing is

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Speaker 1: we've had one degree celsius warming about two degrees fahrenheit

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Speaker 1: in the last one hundred and seventy years, and that

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Speaker 1: has correlated with an incredible improvement in life, including an

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Speaker 1: incredible improvement in our safety from climate. And what I

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Speaker 1: think people are ignoring are the benefits of fossil fuels,

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Speaker 1: and then they're catastrophizing this warming as some sort of

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Speaker 1: catastrophe one it's not at all. Well, I explain the

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Speaker 1: positive side of that. What's the positive effect of the

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Speaker 1: last century of warming. Well, there's the effect of the warming,

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Speaker 1: but then there's the energy that we got with the warming.

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Speaker 1: So I think people should think about fossil fuels the

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Speaker 1: way they think of prescription drugs. You weigh the benefits

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Speaker 1: and you weigh the side effects. And what we see

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Speaker 1: today is people tend to only focus on the side

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Speaker 1: effects and then they wildly overstate the side effects. And

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Speaker 1: so first you just have to talk about what are

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Speaker 1: the benefits of fossil fuels, including what they are fundamentally

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Speaker 1: is fossil fuels provide the low cost, reliable energy that

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Speaker 1: enable us to use machines to be productive and prosperous.

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Speaker 1: So you think about modern agriculture, which is in the

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Speaker 1: news now because fuel prices are up and that affects agriculture, Well,

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Speaker 1: that's because modern agriculture totally depends on fossil fuels. It

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Speaker 1: requires fossil fuel machines to do the agriculture, and then

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Speaker 1: fossil fuel derived fertilizer based on natural gas, and yet

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Speaker 1: we're not taught to think of those benefits, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's why we're in a crisis. But the other

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Speaker 1: thing is with climate. Fossil fuels allow us to use

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Speaker 1: all these amazing machines that allow us to master climate

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Speaker 1: and be so safe. So heating machines for when it's cold,

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Speaker 1: cooling machines for when it's hot, irrigation machines for alleviating drought,

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Speaker 1: ships to bring food relief. All these things have taken

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Speaker 1: our naturally dangerous climate and made it unnaturally safe. And

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels should get a lot of the credit, and

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Speaker 1: unfortunately nobody gives it any credit climate wise. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: if I understand your studies, a significant part of the

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Speaker 1: world still has an electricity. There are still a large

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Speaker 1: number of people who are using wood and animal dung

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Speaker 1: to cook and heat their homes. So the rise of

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Speaker 1: what we think of as modern civilization hasn't actually reached everybody.

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Speaker 1: And if you forced to change into much more expensive

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Speaker 1: and exotic green systems, these people are going to continue

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Speaker 1: to suffer for the next hundred years. I mean one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent, right, If you look at just the data.

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Speaker 1: There are only about one point five billion people in

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Speaker 1: the world who use what we would consider a remotely

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Speaker 1: acceptable amount of energy, and they're just to make it concrete,

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Speaker 1: there are three billion people who are using less electricity

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Speaker 1: than one of our refrigerators uses. So that is a

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Speaker 1: real tragedy. Wait, wait, go, let's load on prospectives. That's

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Speaker 1: such an amazing number. There are three billion people whose

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Speaker 1: annual electricity use is less than an American families refrigerator,

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Speaker 1: just the refrigerator exactly. That should put some perspective. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if the green movement it actually cared about

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Speaker 1: human beings, wouldn't they have some concern about those three

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Speaker 1: billion people? Well, I think it's a very big if.

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Speaker 1: And one thing that's disturbed me is, like, here's a

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Speaker 1: question to ask listeners. What has gotten more concern in

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Speaker 1: the news and moral concern in the last twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Has it been three billion people with virtually no energy,

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Speaker 1: which is a guaranteed poverty life sentence, or is it

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Speaker 1: polar bears moving from one piece of ice to another.

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Speaker 1: The polar bears get much more concern, and they're actually

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Speaker 1: growing in population. But even the idea that we're disturbing

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Speaker 1: the habitat at all is considered more important than three

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Speaker 1: billion people, which is my basic thesiss we're thinking about

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Speaker 1: this issue in an anti human way, and then I

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Speaker 1: think that's one example of it. I mean, a third

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Speaker 1: of the human population is in two countries China and India. Yes,

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Speaker 1: and it seems to me both of those governments have

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Speaker 1: made the decision that the prosperity and health of their

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Speaker 1: population is more important than pleasing teenagers from Scandinavia. That's true,

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Speaker 1: and part of the broader data here is that fossil

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Speaker 1: fuels are eighty percent of the world's energy. This is

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Speaker 1: despite a century of competition, and they're growing fast, particularly

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Speaker 1: as you indicate it in the parts of the world

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Speaker 1: that most value low cost, reliable energy. So when people say, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: the green stuff is better, well, why is China using

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Speaker 1: coal to produce green energy and yet its eighty four

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Speaker 1: percent fossil fueled themselves? Do they not know the truth

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Speaker 1: about energy? But American academics do. It's like, it's clear

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Speaker 1: that for most purposes fossil fuels are still the cheapest option,

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Speaker 1: which is why they're growing well. And in that sense,

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Speaker 1: so many pointed out that if you accepted fossil fuels

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Speaker 1: as a solution, and you, for example, we're to replace

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Speaker 1: the Chinese coal burning plants and Indian coal burning plants

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Speaker 1: with natural gas facilities, you actually have the largest plausible

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Speaker 1: decrease in carbon loading of the atmosphere of any strategy

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Speaker 1: you're going to be able to implement the next fifty years.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot out of truth to that, but there's

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Speaker 1: a reason why those places use coal. Coal has a

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Speaker 1: lot of advantages over natural gas globally in terms of price.

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Speaker 1: It's much easier to transport because it's not a gas.

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Speaker 1: Now you can liquefy gas. But it is true that

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Speaker 1: in terms of what has actually lowered emissions most so far,

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Speaker 1: it's the proliferation of natural gas. It's particularly ridiculous that

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Speaker 1: we see these global restrictions on natural gas. I mean, basically,

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Speaker 1: when we invented modern fracking, this amazing technology, Europe's first

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Speaker 1: move was basically to ban it in every country. I

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Speaker 1: actually let an effort called drill here, Drill now pay less.

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Speaker 1: I like it. I wrote a book called gas Ling

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Speaker 1: a two fifty a gallon, which Obama attacked, which was

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Speaker 1: kind of interesting. To the President United States take on

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Speaker 1: a book like that and said it's impossible, it could

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Speaker 1: never occur, And of course under Trump it did occur.

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Speaker 1: And fracking, and my mind, fracking was the great breakthrough

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Speaker 1: that's suddenly I think it expanded. This is off the

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Speaker 1: top of my head, but I think it expanded North

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Speaker 1: Dakota's oil reserves from eight hundred million barrels to twenty

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Speaker 1: four billion, just a development of the fracking capabilities. You have,

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Speaker 1: for example, in the Marcello Shale in western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio,

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Speaker 1: and West Virginia, you have about four hundred years supply

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Speaker 1: of natural gas. In addition, there's now been the development

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Speaker 1: of modular small nuclear power plants, and if you combine

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Speaker 1: natural gas with small nuclear power plants, you achieve far

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Speaker 1: greater breakthroughs then the green industries will ever develop. And

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Speaker 1: I'd like to get your reaction. Why is it so

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Speaker 1: hard to get folks who are fanatically committed against fossil fuels,

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Speaker 1: Why is it so hard to get them to talk

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Speaker 1: factually about what's going on? Well, so, I think there

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Speaker 1: aren't that many people who are incredibly fanatical. I mean,

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Speaker 1: my main concern is the general public who've bought into this,

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Speaker 1: and I think the fanatics, if you're going to call

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Speaker 1: them that, have put forward two false narratives. So one

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Speaker 1: is that our use of fossil fuels is causing climate catastrophe,

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Speaker 1: whereas I'm saying it impacts climate that's different than catastrophe.

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Speaker 1: Were actually safer from climate than ever. And the other

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Speaker 1: thing is that so called renewables, particularly solar wind, can

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Speaker 1: rapidly replace fossil fuels. And this has been a really

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Speaker 1: persistent narrative. You've seen corporate America push at say, hey,

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Speaker 1: we can get to net zero by twenty fifty. You

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Speaker 1: have companies lying, like Apple, lying and saying we're one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent renewable. We can talk about the accounting fraud

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Speaker 1: involved in that, and so the public is led to think, hey,

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels have catastrophic side effects and they have no

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Speaker 1: real benefits because they're easy to replace. And so a

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Speaker 1: lot of what I do in Fossil Future is I

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Speaker 1: debunk the hundreds of myths around both of these basic myths.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's really necessary because once the public

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Speaker 1: sees fossil fuels don't have these catastrophic side effects, and

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Speaker 1: they have amazing benefits and using them more will benefit

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Speaker 1: billions of people. I think a lot of people will

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Speaker 1: come on board when companies that are very high tech

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Speaker 1: claim that they're going to somehow be zero impact on

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Speaker 1: the carbon side. Isn't that in part because they don't

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Speaker 1: count electricity. They usually only count electricity way it works.

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Speaker 1: And you do not only have companies claiming they're going

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Speaker 1: to do this in the future, you have them claiming

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Speaker 1: this now. So you look at Apple's website, Google's website,

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Speaker 1: they say they're one hundred percent renewable now, which you

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Speaker 1: would ask, how is that possible, because there's no grid

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Speaker 1: in the world that's one hundred percent Leaving aside. Iceland

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Speaker 1: would be the one exception. They use a lot of oil.

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Speaker 1: So Iceland has geothermal, which we could talk about, which

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Speaker 1: you can't do like that in most places. But you

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Speaker 1: take Apple. They're in North Carolina, which has a lot

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Speaker 1: of nuclear and a lot of fossil fuel electricity, and

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Speaker 1: they say they're hundred percent renewable. So what they do

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Speaker 1: is they just pay the grid to give them credit

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Speaker 1: for everyone else's solar and wind and give everyone else

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Speaker 1: the blame for their coal, natural gas and nuclear It's

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Speaker 1: really that simple how that scam works. When the President

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Speaker 1: and others say that the long term solution is going

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Speaker 1: to be electric cars, and I'm not against electric cars,

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Speaker 1: but it sangs to me most people who advocate electric

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Speaker 1: cars as an energy solution have no notion how much

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Speaker 1: you're going to have to invest in electricity production and

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Speaker 1: in a much bigger, more robust grid. And I have

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Speaker 1: a hunch that this summer we're going to see some

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Speaker 1: rolling brownouts because the systems simply won't be able to

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Speaker 1: sustain both expanded use of electricity and air conditioning in

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Speaker 1: the middle of July and August. I think it's a

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Speaker 1: huge concern. I'm also not against evs. I'm four evs

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Speaker 1: if and when they're cost effective. But if you have

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Speaker 1: more evs, you have to have a much more robust grid.

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Speaker 1: As you said, and if you look at all the trends,

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Speaker 1: the trends are to incorporate as much unreliable solar and

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Speaker 1: wind as possible and to shut down as many reliable

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Speaker 1: power plants as possible, which is why we're getting national

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Speaker 1: warnings of blackouts this summer. I wrote out this on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at alex Epstein, I called electricity emergency. I really

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Speaker 1: do think we have an electricity emergency, and yet instead

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Speaker 1: of solving that, we're making it worse and then adding

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Speaker 1: more electric cars, which are giant consumers of electricity. I

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Speaker 1: hadn't thought of it the way you just said, which

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Speaker 1: is a very helpful. In fact, I think I'll do

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Speaker 1: a newsletter about it, the concept of an electricity emergency.

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Speaker 1: Have you run across people who are working that issue

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Speaker 1: in a serious way, because I know that in California

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Speaker 1: a number of other places, they simply haven't been willing

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Speaker 1: to invest in the kind of robustnists they're going to

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Speaker 1: need for the volume of electric demand they're going to have.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of really bad incentives right now on

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Speaker 1: the grid unfortunately. So one thing is, in addition to

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Speaker 1: subsidies and mandates, we have this crazy policy where you

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Speaker 1: pay the same price for unreliable electricity as reliable electricity.

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Speaker 1: This occurs in Texas. I live in California. It occurs there.

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Speaker 1: This is a huge problem, and unfortunately, if you look

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Speaker 1: at the plans of the different regional grids, the dominant

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Speaker 1: thing you see when ask how are you going to

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Speaker 1: get your reliable electricity? They say we're going to import it,

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Speaker 1: but everyone can't import it. So even California a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago in twenty twenty, we were overly dependent

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Speaker 1: on imports and we got hosed when there was a

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Speaker 1: heatwave and our neighbors needed their reliable electricity. But now

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Speaker 1: everyone has these plans to use more unreliable solar and wind,

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Speaker 1: and they want to hit these targets. They want to

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Speaker 1: use less fossil fuel, so they just say, we're going

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Speaker 1: to get it from our neighbors, but obviously not everyone

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Speaker 1: can do that, which is part of why we have

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Speaker 1: this electricity emergency. I just didn't newsletter on the Marcella

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Speaker 1: shale because Governor Wolfe in Harrisburg signed an executive order

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Speaker 1: joining Pennsylvania to the Northeastern greenhouse Gas Conscium And the

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Speaker 1: way the rest of the Northeast has been dealing with

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Speaker 1: their energy need is they've been importing it from Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: which is the fourth largest producer of energy in the

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Speaker 1: United States. And so now wolf wants to apply to

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Speaker 1: Pennsylvania what it hasn't worked in the other states, which

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Speaker 1: means in theory, Pennsylvania will also have to start thinking

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Speaker 1: about importing energy, which will turn out I think to

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Speaker 1: be impossible. To me. The inability to walk through a

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Speaker 1: logic chain is one of the most difficult parts of

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Speaker 1: the current system. And I don't know whether it's because

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Speaker 1: the news media can't think beyond thirty and sixty seconds,

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Speaker 1: or because somewhere between MTV and TikTok we got into

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Speaker 1: such short time horizons. It's very hard to get people

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Speaker 1: to think in an extended way. But as you pointed out,

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Speaker 1: and close than I did a movie called We Have

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Speaker 1: the Power, and part of the movie was at a

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Speaker 1: huge wind farm in Texas, which, by the way, the

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Speaker 1: last time when it really froze, the wind farm couldn't

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Speaker 1: work and they had to really deal with that because

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Speaker 1: it couldn't generate the electricity to keep the turbans moving

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Speaker 1: because they all froze. And you just look at this stuff.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I used to teach environmental studies many many

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Speaker 1: years ago. I thought I taught in the second Earth Day.

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Speaker 1: But I'm for solar power, I'm for wind power, and

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Speaker 1: for tidal power. But the truth is it is collectively

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Speaker 1: it seems to me a drop in the bucket. And

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Speaker 1: I'd be curious what percent of the world's energy do

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Speaker 1: you think plausibly is going to come from those kind

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Speaker 1: of green fuels. I think it depends on how much

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Speaker 1: we want to suffer. So right now it's three percent

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Speaker 1: solar and wind, and you have a lot of problems.

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Speaker 1: You know, you have higher adoption rates in Europe, and

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Speaker 1: look what's happening there. So the issue with solar and

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Speaker 1: wind today is they're overwhelmingly parasitical sources of energy, so

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Speaker 1: they don't replace the reliable capacity they add to it.

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Speaker 1: So if you think about, say what happened in California,

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Speaker 1: You know, we added all of this solar and wind,

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Speaker 1: but the solar and wind can still go near zero

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Speaker 1: at any time, So we really need one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: of the reliable infrastructure. And then when we tried to

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Speaker 1: shut it down, so we shut down Santaofre nuclear plant,

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Speaker 1: we shut down some natural gas plants. You're playing this

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Speaker 1: game of reliability chicken where you're hoping for enough sun

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Speaker 1: and enough wind and you hope it doesn't get too hot,

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Speaker 1: you hope it doesn't get too cold. So you can

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Speaker 1: incorporate a lot of solar and wind if you're willing

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Speaker 1: to have one hundred percent backup, But that costs a

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Speaker 1: lot of money, so people try to cut costs, which

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Speaker 1: leads to the reliability issues. So I think the way

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Speaker 1: it should work is you should only be able to

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Speaker 1: sell reliable electricity to the grid. Then if people think

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Speaker 1: they can do efficient things with or wind and gas,

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Speaker 1: they can make their own black box that has to

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Speaker 1: deliver reliable electricity. I'm totally in favor of using sword

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Speaker 1: wind if they're cost effective, but not at the rest

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Speaker 1: of our expense. In places like Germany and Denmark, where

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Speaker 1: they've really invested, they have three to four times the

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Speaker 1: electricity price the United States. Yes, there's one estimate I

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Speaker 1: think from the state government office that signing the executive

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Speaker 1: order the governor will maybe driving up electricity prices in

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Speaker 1: Pennsylvania by a factor of four because they're going to

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Speaker 1: now have to pay the kind of prices they're paying

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Speaker 1: in New York and New England. But so far we've

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Speaker 1: been very fortunate and that our natural gas prices and

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Speaker 1: our electricity prices have actually been a competitive advantage against

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Speaker 1: places like Germany and Denmark. Isn't it likely that as

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Speaker 1: we go more and more towards these kind of solutions

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Speaker 1: that prices are going to rise. I mean, prices have

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Speaker 1: been rising. And it's notable that in an era where

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Speaker 1: natural gas prices declined precipitously and natural gas became more

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Speaker 1: dominant on the grid, you didn't see declines in prices

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Speaker 1: in the US, which meant that there are other factors

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Speaker 1: driving up prices, namely all of this additional wasteful, unreliable

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Speaker 1: solar and wind. But it was hidden by the natural

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Speaker 1: gas being so cheap. But yeah, now we're seeing it

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Speaker 1: go up in price, and we're seeing price hikes in

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Speaker 1: different places. The other thing that's happening is the green

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Speaker 1: movement isn't just mandating solar and wind. It's using that

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Speaker 1: as a pretext for restricting fossil fuels. So look at

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Speaker 1: what Biden did, right, he said, oh, we're going to

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Speaker 1: have this amazing green world. But what did he do

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Speaker 1: in practice? He shut down Keystone pipeline, He banned drilling,

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Speaker 1: He threatened the industry, he said, I guarantee you we

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Speaker 1: will end fossil fuel. So the real negative impact is

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Speaker 1: making fossil fuels more expensive. So you have to pay

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Speaker 1: for all this wasteful green energy, but then you have

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Speaker 1: to pay much more for the fossil fuels, since you've

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Speaker 1: restricted investment, you've restricted production, and you've restricted transportation. And

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Speaker 1: while we're doing this, one of the claims of people

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Speaker 1: who want a green world is that China is rapidly

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Speaker 1: converting the solar and wind because obviously China and India

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Speaker 1: are the two great users of electricity and for the future.

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Speaker 1: I mean, isn't that just plain not true? Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: not true. The China is over eighty percent fossible, I

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Speaker 1: think about eighty four percent last time I looked at

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Speaker 1: the data. There's this question of why is China dominate

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Speaker 1: the solar and wind market, And a lot of that

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Speaker 1: is they use a lot of cheap coal, so the

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Speaker 1: electricity is over sixty percent coal, which is a competitive advantage.

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Speaker 1: In addition, they use slave labor. In addition, they have

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Speaker 1: low environmental standards. It's this crazy situation where we're told

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Speaker 1: that China is converting to green, whereas actually China is

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Speaker 1: using coal to convert us to green, and they control

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Speaker 1: the entire supply chain of green so, for example, the

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Speaker 1: major producers of solar panels. I think, in a sense,

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Speaker 1: the more we become dependent on China for our electricity production,

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Speaker 1: the less reliable. Strategically, our electricity production will become yes,

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Speaker 1: so it's less reliable because the materials themselves, this form

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Speaker 1: of electricity is less reliable. But yeah, China controls, particularly

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Speaker 1: the processing of raw materials, so they control a lot

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Speaker 1: of the mining, but it's mainly turning the mind materials

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Speaker 1: into usable components. They can cut that off. If you

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Speaker 1: think Russia has control over Germany, which they do, nothing

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Speaker 1: can compare to what China has. I talk about this

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Speaker 1: in chapter eleven of Fossil Future. This was one of

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Speaker 1: my big motivations to write a new and much better

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Speaker 1: and more current book on fossil fuels, which is I

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Speaker 1: think the US and Europe I call it unilateral disempowerment.

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Speaker 1: We are disempowering ourselves while China is trying to become

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Speaker 1: the world's leading superpower using fossil fuels. This is really

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Speaker 1: scary and it needs to be revealed. When I was Speaker,

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Speaker 1: we sent a congressional delegation to Kyoto, which was the

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Speaker 1: first big gathering on this topic, leading ultimately the Paras Accords.

432
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 1: The Kyoto agreement was so bad that when it was

433
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 1: sent to the Senate, not a single senator, not even

434
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 1: John Carey voted for it because it allowed China and

435
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 1: India to continue to dramatically increase the carbon loading of

436
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 1: the atmosphere while forcing the United States basically into a

437
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: set of rules that were worse than either Europe or

438
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 1: China and India. And I think you still see that

439
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 1: because the whole process, with the Paris Accord, we have

440
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: this nice convenient delay for India and China which allows

441
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 1: them to continue to have a less and less expensive

442
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 1: energy economy while the rest of US are ramping up

443
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,680
Speaker 1: our cost. I mean, is that a reasonably accurate understanding?

444
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: It is, And I think it's an important aspect the

445
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: way I think of it, as I think this is

446
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: an immoral agreement for everyone. Really, I don't think you

447
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 1: can talk about rapidly eliminating CO two emissions when fossil

448
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: fuels are totally crucial and where the energy they provide

449
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 1: is needed by billions more people. So congratulations to China

450
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 1: and India for not accepting these ridiculous restrictions, and shame

451
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 1: on the US for signing a treaty and not calling

452
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: a treaty and not putting it in front of the Senate.

453
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 1: This is ridiculous that Obama did this and that Biden

454
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 1: renewed it. This is, if anything is a treaty, something

455
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: that totally transforms our economy for the worst needs to

456
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: be ratified by the Senate. One of the things which

457
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: is puzzling about all this is that it seems to

458
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:12,159
Speaker 1: me nuclear power is the most promising of the so

459
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 1: called green technologies, if by green you mean not putting

460
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: carbon into the atmosphere, And with the development of the

461
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: very safe small module or nuclear systems, why is it

462
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: so hard to get people who claim to be concerned

463
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: about carbon to not understand that a very large part

464
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 1: of our future has to involve nuclear power. I regard

465
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 1: the concern with carbon as phony, and I think the

466
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: evidence is in part the hostility toward nuclear, but also

467
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: the hostility toward hydro and the hostility toward mining, which

468
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 1: is totally crucial for solar and wind, which require much

469
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: more mining than everything else for a whole bunch of reasons,

470
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: and so I think of it as the real driving

471
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: force in our energy thinking is unfortunately, the idea that

472
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 1: human impact on nature is evil and should be stopped,

473
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 1: And so I regard the opposition to CO two as

474
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 1: just a subset of the opposition to all human impact.

475
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 1: And so with nuclear what you see is the advocates,

476
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: the leaders. What they think is they think it's wrong

477
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 1: for us to split the atom that's changing nature in

478
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 1: a new way. And they think it's wrong for us

479
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 1: to create waste, not because it's a big danger, but

480
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: because it's going to last a long time. And they

481
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: think that human beings creating something that lasts a long

482
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: time is immoral. So I do think of this as

483
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,679
Speaker 1: a primitive anti human religion that's driving a lot of

484
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: this stuff. So I remember when I was in graduate school,

485
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: there was a faction that believed in Gaya as the

486
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 1: Earth mother. There you go, and we couldn't do anything

487
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 1: to offend Gaya. But isn't that the modern climate catastrophe movement.

488
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 1: It puts the climate as a friendly force, even though

489
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: climate is one of the leading killers in human history,

490
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 1: and then it says, you know, we break the climate.

491
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: I call this the delicate nurture assumption. You know that

492
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: nature exists in a delicate nurturing balance and human impact

493
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: can only ruin it. This is just a false, primitive

494
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 1: belief that modern humans have no business believing. But it

495
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: shapes climate. We think all we can do with climate

496
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 1: is ruined something perfect, versus what we actually do is

497
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: we master it, and we're far better off climate wise

498
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: than we've ever been. I'm just finishing a terrific book

499
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: on the rise of mammals in the Age of Mammals,

500
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: and it goes through a series of catastrophic events. One

501
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: of which is very famous is the asteroid that hit

502
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 1: around the UK, A ten penans almost certainly wiped out

503
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 1: the dinosaurs. But there've been a whole series of catastrophic

504
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 1: events that do involve climate change, but they are mostly

505
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,919
Speaker 1: caused by gigantic volcanoes which operate for hundreds and hundreds

506
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: of years and which put, for example, sulfuric acid into

507
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: the atmosphere, so it kills things in the ocean. And

508
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: you look at those things and you think, now that's

509
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,719
Speaker 1: climate change did really age is profoundly the whole planet.

510
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: Nothing we're doing is comparable to any of those events.

511
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,959
Speaker 1: And yet if you listen to the alarmist, they pretend

512
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 1: this is a new and stunningly different kind of future. Well,

513
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 1: in particular, what's notable I think I point this out

514
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 1: in chapter nine is if you look at extinction events,

515
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: like a lot of it involves blocking out light, being cold,

516
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: things like that. What do we do with CO two

517
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 1: emissions is they make the earth warmer and greener. That

518
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: does not cause mass extinction, and they make it particularly warmer.

519
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: This is not known, but I talk about it in

520
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 1: chapter nine. This is mainstream science. They make it warmer

521
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 1: in colder regions, and we still have far more people

522
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: dying of cold than of heat. So again, I think

523
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 1: the issue is people are taught that human impact is bad,

524
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: it's immoral, and it's going to lead nature to destroy us.

525
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: My background is philosophy. This is just a false anti

526
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 1: human environmental philosophy that human impact is evil and inevitably

527
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 1: self destructive. Yet it's misshaping our whole thinking about energy.

528
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 1: I mean, if you started with the concept, I'm afraid

529
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: this summer we're going to see very substantial human pain

530
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 1: as the side effects of the Russian Ukrainian War lead

531
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 1: to both the collapse in terms of wheat exports and

532
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 1: a collapse in terms of fertilizer exports. Cluster was the

533
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 1: ambassador of the Vatican. We were very close to the

534
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: people who run the World Food Organization. They think you

535
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: could easily see somewhere between ten and two hundred million

536
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 1: people die this year, that it could be a catastrophe

537
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: on a scale the dwarfs, World War one or World

538
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: War two. And it's as though the world sleepwalking because

539
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: the poorest of the poor just don't get covered. It's astonishing.

540
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: And so we talk about the concerns of the richest

541
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: of the rich, and we think that's the focus of morality.

542
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 1: This point I keep making about, we're ignoring the benefits

543
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: of fossil fuels. So one example I talk about in

544
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: chapter one that really bothers me is that if you

545
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: look at one of our leading experts on this issue,

546
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: Michael Man, a climate scientist and activist. He has a

547
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: whole book on fossil fuels and climates called the Madhouse Effect,

548
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 1: and he talks about agriculture, but he only talks about

549
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: negative side effects of warming on agriculture. But he doesn't

550
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: talk about the benefits of fossil fuels to agriculture, even

551
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: though modern agriculture totally depends on fossil field machinery and

552
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: fossil field fertilizer. And because people like Michael Mann are

553
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: not telling us about the benefits, we don't think about them,

554
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: and we make these terrible decisions. And as you're saying,

555
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: the biggest victims are the poorest people who can't afford

556
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 1: food and can't get it when there's a fertilizer crisis.

557
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: And so we really need a new set of leaders

558
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: who are thinking about what I call the full context,

559
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 1: who are looking at the benefits and side effects and

560
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: not just saying, oh, let's look at the negatives. And ultimately,

561
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: I think they're doing that because they don't really value

562
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: human life. They think human life is bad because it

563
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: impacts nature, and they want to see less of it.

564
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,959
Speaker 1: I'm often reminded of Tom Wolfe's extraordinary series of essays

565
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: that included Radical Chic and the idea of all these

566
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: extraordinarily wealthy New Yorkers who got together in a pious

567
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 1: interest in the poor while being served by immigrants who

568
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 1: made up the staff for the cocktail party, and they

569
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 1: had no notion of people outside their own class. The

570
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: Ivy League morality extends to you as long as you

571
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: also went to the Ivy League. But then you have

572
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: to worry less and less as they get further away

573
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: from you. Meanwhile, you have in China and India governments

574
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: which are not trapped into this bizarre model, and as

575
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: I understand it, in both China and India, the use

576
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: of coal and oil has actually increased by at least

577
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: five yeah, over the last four or five decades. Definitely,

578
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: the anti fossil field movement is not really concerned with energy. Again,

579
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: their hostile to nuclear, they're hostile to hydro, they're hostile

580
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: to mining. It's really about eliminating human impact on Earth.

581
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: There's just a pretense that they care about CO two

582
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: because that's something that scares people. And there's a pretense

583
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: that hey, they really want a lot of energy from

584
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: solar and wind as that will inspire people and make

585
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: it think it's okay for us to get rid of

586
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: fossil fuels. But in reality, neither of these things hold water.

587
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 1: And it's really just an anti energy movement. So if

588
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: you could wave a magic one, what should the United

589
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: States climate policy look like? I think our energy policy

590
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 1: I talk about this in chapter ten, which is about

591
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: energy freedom. I think it should be a pure energy

592
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 1: freedom policy. I don't think you need a separate climate policy.

593
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: So if you liberate all forms of energy, including what

594
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: I call decriminalizing nuclear, which is a big part of

595
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 1: what I think the platform should be. If you decriminalize nuclear,

596
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 1: you liberate its potential, and it will eventually become cost

597
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: competitive and I think ultimately cost superior to fossil fuels.

598
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: You'll also liberate natural gas, which we're really good at producing,

599
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: will produce more of that for ourselves in the world,

600
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: So those will drive down what you can call emissions intensity.

601
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: Then we'll have a lot more energy, will be prosperous,

602
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: will export things. But I don't think the world should

603
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: be focused on reducing CO two emissions right now. I

604
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 1: don't think that's moral given the alternatives. I think we

605
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: need to be focused on ending human empowerment to billions

606
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: of people. And then the way you deal with emission's

607
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: long term insofar as you want to, is you liberate

608
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: the most cost effective alternatives. That's also the only practical thing.

609
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 1: China and India, are they going to use expensive alternatives?

610
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: Absolutely not. So the only way to get everyone using

611
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: lower carbon energy is to innovate to the point where

612
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 1: it's cost effective at scale. Well, I wish every policymaker

613
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: would read your new book, Fossil Future, Why Global human

614
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: flourishing requires more oil, coal and natural guests, not less.

615
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: And I really do think, as your earlier book was entitled,

616
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: there is a moral case for fossil fuels, and the

617
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: moral case starts with the number of poor people around

618
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: the planet whose lives are going to be somewhere between

619
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 1: hurt and destroyed if we follow an anti energy policy.

620
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: So I think what you're doing, Alex is very important

621
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: and is a major contribution to re establishing a serious

622
00:32:55,560 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: dialogue about our obligation to people everywhere in our obligation

623
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: and decreating a morally sound energy policy. Thanks so much, Nut,

624
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest Alex Upstein. You can get

625
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: a link to buy his book Fossil Future on our

626
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: showpage at newtsworld dot com. News World is produced by

627
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Garnsey Slump,

628
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: our producer is Rebecca Howe, and our researcher is Rachel Peterson.

629
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley.

630
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingwish three sixty. If

631
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple

632
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 1: Podcast and both rate us with five stars and give

633
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about.

634
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of news World consign up for my

635
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: three free weekly columns at gingwish three sixty dot com

636
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld