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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing out so spect we're saying it's a cash to stop.

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Speaker 1: That's all we see most gamble is when they go

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Speaker 1: to gamble, they go to winning.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine and we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, welcome to the Action Hour podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I'm joined by

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Speaker 1: the One, the Only, the Man, the Viking Man, PA

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. For our NFL recap show. We will discuss

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Speaker 1: what we saw today, which, holy crap, it was a

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Speaker 1: lot of different stuff. This might be the most loaded

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Speaker 1: show and slate that we are going to get done

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Speaker 1: in an hour.

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Speaker 2: I promise you. We'll discuss what we.

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Speaker 1: Saw look ahead brief fleet on Monday Night's game, plus

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Speaker 1: we will get to Brandon's hot reed for next week

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Speaker 1: for Week sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Before we get started.

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Speaker 1: I will give you my one stat of the day,

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Speaker 1: which is always a stat or two because I love

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Speaker 1: you all. The trend of sixty percent of bets or

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Speaker 1: more has continued four to six against the spread this

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Speaker 1: week with Dallas Holy mackerel. This just keeps going fourteen

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Speaker 1: to fifteen weeks below five hundred, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: the high seventy percentage bets lost today as well, one

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Speaker 1: beating the Bengals, et cetera, et cetera. The other fun one,

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Speaker 1: which is just an interesting nugget after the Vikings cover

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Speaker 1: on the road on Sunday Night football this season road

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Speaker 1: teams and home teams both one O eight, one oaight

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Speaker 1: and one even and during Monday Night Football in week fifteen.

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Speaker 1: So markets pretty nice, pretty even, pretty good. Other than that,

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Speaker 1: six teams won this week after trailing by at least

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Speaker 1: ten points, tied for the most in a single week history.

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Speaker 1: We're going to go through most of those, except for

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Speaker 1: the Falcons, who overcame a fourteen point deficit to beat

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Speaker 1: the Bucks on Thursday Night Football. But other than that, BA,

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Speaker 1: what do you got with this ridiculous slate? I don't

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Speaker 1: even mention Phil Rivers, but it's a yeah.

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Speaker 3: I feel like it's even impossible to try to sum

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Speaker 3: up half of what we saw today because there were

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Speaker 3: so many big games. I feel like the big games

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Speaker 3: lived up to what we hope for. Some of the

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Speaker 3: lesser games hit tons of injuries today, just like really big,

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Speaker 3: really crushing injuries, to be honest, especially in the later

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Speaker 3: slate this afternoon. Yeah, just lost to get to obviously,

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Speaker 3: nearly every game some sort of playoff implications, so we're

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Speaker 3: constantly updating the odds and the look aheads and how

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Speaker 3: things are going. So yeah, I don't have a good

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Speaker 3: way to sum it up better than the stats that

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Speaker 3: you gave already. So I'm ready to just get into

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Speaker 3: it and get talk some Vikings Vikings Town. Let's go, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, So the Vikings win the game thirty twenty six

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Speaker 1: cover plus five on the road. Total goes over forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half, which you know, if you've not

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Speaker 1: been under a rock, every Cowboys game seems to go

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Speaker 1: over the total, and it's basically the sum.

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Speaker 2: Of their season.

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Speaker 1: We thought their defense was getting better, but nine, also

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Speaker 1: known as JJ, carved them up tonight. Did a pretty

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Speaker 1: good job rushing and receiving. I think the way to

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Speaker 1: start this game, no Christian Darisaw, which is obviously a

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Speaker 1: big blow and I honestly thought he might play in

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Speaker 1: this one, but we got that news before kickoff. He

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Speaker 1: had the Aubrey fake field goal, which basically turned out.

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Speaker 1: After you do that, you can't kick field goals. He

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Speaker 1: turned into a running back and then couldn't kick crazy

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Speaker 1: stuff tonight. For his misses. You had the Javonte Williams injury,

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Speaker 1: he left, he came back, he left again. Kind of

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Speaker 1: messing with the betting markets in this game. But aside

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Speaker 1: from that, I don't know how much I really learned here.

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Speaker 1: I mean Dallas, same team I've been seeing kind of

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Speaker 1: all season, and Minnesota stepped up to the plate tonight,

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Speaker 1: which I think some people thought they were.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think that we need to stay too

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Speaker 3: long on this game for the podcast because a Vikings fan,

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Speaker 3: obviously a great night, fun to watch the team finally

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Speaker 3: show up. I didn't think I was going to get

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Speaker 3: to bring the jersey back out for the podcast, but

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Speaker 3: one more time for the jersey. I mean, look, I think,

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Speaker 3: to me, not really consequential for the season, but one

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Speaker 3: of the best games JJ McCarthy's played in his career,

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Speaker 3: like for immediately, not a long career, but it's it's

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Speaker 3: looked pretty dark. Like we're seeing quarterback rankings this week

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Speaker 3: and he's coming in at thirty two, behind the dude

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Speaker 3: that hasn't played football for the last five years, Like

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Speaker 3: it's not great, so to go on the road, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Dallas is still Dallas, but a better defense than they

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Speaker 3: had been road environment. Dallas is so good at home.

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Speaker 3: McCarthy wasn't incredible, but he was good. He made the

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Speaker 3: throws I really like too. Kevin O'Connell's consistently letting him

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Speaker 3: rip it right like he's he gets to that third

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Speaker 3: down play and look, the Vikings has nothing to lose.

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Speaker 3: There's nothing like super commendable about that. But we've talked

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Speaker 3: about this with bow Nicks with other guys and we'll

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Speaker 3: get to bow as well. We've talked about like what

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Speaker 3: are you trying to prove by keeping the training wheels on?

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Speaker 3: They're not doing that, Like they're letting McCarthy go out

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Speaker 3: and try to see what he can do. And he

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Speaker 3: looked pretty good tonight. So I think long term big

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Speaker 3: picture as a Vikings fan, a little bit of hope,

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Speaker 3: some excitement classic Vikings of course, to have hope and

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Speaker 3: excitement and ruin the draft pick after the season's like

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Speaker 3: already lost at that point, but you know they get

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Speaker 3: the quarterback hopefully, And so that's the key takeaway here

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Speaker 3: for Dallas. Just disappointing classic Dallas. I guess you have

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Speaker 3: to say too that to kind of get everyone excited,

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Speaker 3: get back into the mix, and then they're effectively out,

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Speaker 3: like they're not officially eliminated, but they're pretty close to

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Speaker 3: don at this point. Six seven and the one, and

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Speaker 3: just a lot of chances along the way. Brandon Aubrey

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Speaker 3: missed the two field goals, very unlike him. We played him,

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Speaker 3: played against him in Fantasy tonight and made it through

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Speaker 3: to the next round. So I was loving it, loving

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Speaker 3: the Aubrey missfield goals. Not a lot else here I

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Speaker 3: think we needed to get to But yeah, I didn't

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Speaker 3: know why they kept this game on Sunday night when

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Speaker 3: there were so many other good options today. I think

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Speaker 3: of all the games we had that could have been

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Speaker 3: the one tonight, and sure enough, it ended up kind

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Speaker 3: of being a dead robbery with two teams that we

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Speaker 3: don't need to care a whole lot about going forward.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Dallas gets the ratings, so we keep them in

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Speaker 1: the spot. But ten and four to the over best

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Speaker 1: in the NFL for Dallas, and the over is forty

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Speaker 1: four and twenty four at home in Dallas since twenty

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Speaker 1: eighteen above five hundred in all eight seasons, so this

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Speaker 1: is every time we were in Dallas. This is kind

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Speaker 1: of what we see, and I think the defense is

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Speaker 1: going to have to get better if they want to

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Speaker 1: change things in coming seasons to make the playoffs and

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Speaker 1: hopefully make that thirty year run to the NFC championship.

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Speaker 2: Change.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's keep rolling here, Green Bay and Denver.

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Speaker 1: Denver wins the game thirty four to twenty six, covers

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Speaker 1: the plus one and a half at home on close,

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Speaker 1: a little bit of steam there at the end, and

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Speaker 1: the total goes over forty two.

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Speaker 2: And a half. I mean, you could talk probably about

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Speaker 2: a million things in this game.

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Speaker 1: I think the best thing to discuss would be the

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Speaker 1: injuries on green Bay side, which is not really what

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Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about, especially a guy holding a

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Speaker 1: lot of green Bay tickets. But from Christian Watson to

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Speaker 1: Micah Parsons to Zach Tom to kway Walker, it all

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Speaker 1: really happened within like a few minutes, you know, a

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Speaker 1: quarter of each other, where it all just seemed to

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Speaker 1: fall apart to me.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I could talk about Bonix, and.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you will as well, about all the great

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Speaker 1: things that happened there. But looking at Green Bay in Chicago,

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Speaker 1: which is short rest Saturday night, that spread was three

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Speaker 1: and a half at its height, now down to one

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Speaker 1: and a half and crashing like a selling stock. So

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Speaker 1: what would you look at here from green Bay and Denver?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it fair to start with Denver, just

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Speaker 3: because this is the game really that we have that

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Speaker 3: I personally have been magging Bonnicks to go have. So

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Speaker 3: I have to start there because he had it. Three

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Speaker 3: hundred yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, no sacks, no receptions,

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Speaker 3: no sacks. That's what Boonick is supposed to do, don't

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Speaker 3: make mistakes, don't screw it up for us. But this

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Speaker 3: was go win the game for us, and he did

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Speaker 3: four touchdowns. He outplayed Jordan Love, a guy that I

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Speaker 3: just bet for MVP a couple of weeks ago. Bnicks

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Speaker 3: outplayed him in this game ninety fifth percentile EPA per

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Speaker 3: play And just in case you're wondering, ten yards depth

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Speaker 3: of target as well. So these are not just okay,

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Speaker 3: we dumped it off and we got some yak and

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Speaker 3: got some big plays. Now this was a real, actual

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Speaker 3: quarterback game. Credit to bo Nicks. I've said plenty of

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Speaker 3: bad about him. This is the game. This is the

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Speaker 3: guy that can win you playoff games, multiple playoff games.

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Speaker 3: And I think the big takeaway for Denver here they

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Speaker 3: are heavy favorites now to be the one seed. This

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Speaker 3: was the perfect weekend for Denver. They get the the

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Speaker 3: Colts get the loss, the Patriots get the loss, so

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Speaker 3: they gain a game. They only really need to go

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Speaker 3: two and one the rest of the way now to

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Speaker 3: clinch the one seed. I think, really big picture NFL,

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Speaker 3: that's the result of the day. That's the story is

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Speaker 3: the AFC probably goes through Denver now two and one,

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Speaker 3: does it? And don't forget they play the Chiefs on

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Speaker 3: Christmas in Kansas City, which was looking I thought like

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Speaker 3: a pretty definite loss for a desperate Chiefs team. We'll

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Speaker 3: get to that, but Broncos will probably be favored in

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Speaker 3: that game now, so huge swing for them. They're home

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Speaker 3: against the Chargers in week eighteen. That might not be

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Speaker 3: anything for the Chargers. The Chargers might already be in

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Speaker 3: the playoffs and arresting the way that the picture is

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Speaker 3: shaping up for them. So just a really really good

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Speaker 3: weekend for Denver, great game for them. Story of the

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Speaker 3: game to me, outside of the individual I'll get to

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Speaker 3: in a second red zone, Denver four to four in

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Speaker 3: the red zone, Green Bay one of four. That's it.

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Speaker 3: That's the game. The stats aren't really that far off.

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Speaker 3: Obviously Bo made the plays and loved it, but just

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Speaker 3: suddenly for field goals in the red zone, that came

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Speaker 3: to be the difference we were on. I was on

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter over we got ten points. We needed eleven

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Speaker 3: or twelve, depending on the number you got bad beat.

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Speaker 3: Micah Parsons injury, which we'll get to, got hurt with

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Speaker 3: like forty seconds left, so they stopped the clock. Otherwise

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Speaker 3: they were just gonna like run it down and get

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Speaker 3: one more play and go to the fourth quarter. Instead,

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Speaker 3: zero's on the clock in the third quarter, we get

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Speaker 3: a touchdown, and otherwise we would have gotten those points

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Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter. So that kind of stunk. Probably,

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Speaker 3: you know, fourth quarter bets. You're gonna live with that sometimes.

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Speaker 3: Parsons manfest stinks. Micah Parsons is so good and so

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Speaker 3: fun to watch, and it looked bad right away. It's

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Speaker 3: one of those non contact we all know as football fans,

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Speaker 3: you don't love the non contact thing. It looks like

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Speaker 3: Torney a Ciel. Honestly, pretty devastating injury for them. There's

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Speaker 3: no ways around it. Remember, how is Micah Parsons Defensive

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Speaker 3: Player of the Year. That obviously is cooked at this point,

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Speaker 3: But I was big on just how much we should

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Speaker 3: believe in green Bay getting Parsons. Remember I had them

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Speaker 3: jump from seventeenth in defense to top ten before the season,

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Speaker 3: and then they've kind of been back and forth. But

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Speaker 3: I now have them dropping just that much as well,

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Speaker 3: because you have to. And that's just Parsons. Christian Watson

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Speaker 3: honestly could be a pretty big miss as well if

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Speaker 3: he's actually out. I know that's probably Ndsu Buias a

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Speaker 3: little bit, but he's been really good. He's been really

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Speaker 3: the go to guy for them with Jordan Love the

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Speaker 3: big downfield threat you mentioned Zach Tom. Their line hasn't

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Speaker 3: been that good this year. I don't think that's a

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Speaker 3: big injury, but Tom's definitely been their best lineman. Avan

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Speaker 3: Williams their run stopper safety. He left with an injury.

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Speaker 3: Just a brutal, brutal day for green Bay. I said Denver,

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Speaker 3: perfect outcome. This is about as bad as it gets

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Speaker 3: for green Bay. I will say a last note, the

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Speaker 3: sky's not totally falling. The Athletics still has the Packers

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Speaker 3: in ninety two percent to make the playoffs, and if

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Speaker 3: they do beat Chicago Saturday, I think they're basically in

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Speaker 3: at that point. Even if green Bay goes one in

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Speaker 3: two to finish, there's still eighty three percent. So green

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Speaker 3: Bay's probably in the playoffs, but division odds they're back

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Speaker 3: below fifty percent. Bears Island just saying, not sure how

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Speaker 3: we got here, but Bears Island might actually be in

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Speaker 3: a play But that said, if the Packers beat the Bears,

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Speaker 3: which they're still favored to do, they go back to

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Speaker 3: over eighty percent in the division. So I think green

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Speaker 3: Bay probably lost the war today, but they can still

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Speaker 3: win some battles before they get there.

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Speaker 2: It's a good way to put it.

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Speaker 1: But Chicago Baltimore in an at Minnesota if Minnesota is

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Speaker 1: still trying.

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Speaker 2: Not the easiest end of the season.

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Speaker 1: But you mentioned Denver's won eleven in a row, They've

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Speaker 1: won twelve straight at home. They are now basically even

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Speaker 1: odds to make the conference championship game. I mean that

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Speaker 1: is where we sit with the Denver Broncos right now,

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Speaker 1: So I mean pretty crazy all together. But to me,

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Speaker 1: I don't think that Saturday game in Chicago's a gimme.

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Speaker 1: I think the short week, I think that is a

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Speaker 1: very very tough game, especially the fact that you just

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Speaker 1: beat them. I kind of lean Chicago in that game.

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Speaker 1: I kind of wish Chicago didn't win by thirty five

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Speaker 1: today basically, but nonetheless, that's the way I take it.

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Speaker 2: But anything else here you have on Green Bay, Denver, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a fun one on Saturday. We'll get

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Speaker 3: to the other Saturday game and the hot read later on,

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Speaker 3: but I will be not watching much of that one

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Speaker 3: and definitely tuning in fully two Packers Bears. Bears played

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Speaker 3: them really well last time. I thought it was a

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Speaker 3: Packers game and the Bears were right there with them.

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Speaker 3: So that's definitely one I'm sure we'll get to on

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Speaker 3: the Thursday preview when we get to our best bets

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Speaker 3: as well.

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Speaker 1: Definitely I will get I will leave you with this

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Speaker 1: last three seasons, teams coming off a road game in

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Speaker 1: Denver six and seventeen against the spread owens against the

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Speaker 1: spread this season since two thousand and three, teams on

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Speaker 1: short rest off Denver in Denver five and fifteen against

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Speaker 1: the spread. Not easy coming off this type of game

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Speaker 1: in Mile High, especially on short rest. So have to

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Speaker 1: see what Green Bay does. But a pivotal, pivotal game

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Speaker 1: on Saturday night. All right, let's keep rolling here, Chargers Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: So Chargers win the game sixteen to thirteen, cover the

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Speaker 1: five and a half on the road total under forty

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Speaker 1: one and a half. I feel like every game we

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Speaker 1: talk about is going to have to talk about injuries

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Speaker 1: right off the top. It's just the type of day

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Speaker 1: this was. And obviously Pat Mahomes hurt torn acl was

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Speaker 1: the news. I mean, listen, there is a ton of

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Speaker 1: different angles to take on this game. On the favorites. Earlier,

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Speaker 1: we talked about this exact same injury. They asked me

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Speaker 1: my opinion on it. I said, listen, Dynasty not over,

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Speaker 1: but I think Dynasty on hold. Like I kind of

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Speaker 1: believe that this offseason they need to add a bunch

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Speaker 1: of pieces. And I don't even think it's any one

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Speaker 1: off s season thing. I think they need to retool

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Speaker 1: both the offensive line, some of the pass catchers, and

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Speaker 1: I mean people are talking about should we call Brady

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Speaker 1: should be Like I just listen right now, I assume

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Speaker 1: Pat Mahomes, if he wanted to, given the situation, could

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Speaker 1: be back. Like what do you think like week four.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if you're pushing him for

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Speaker 1: week one at this point. I think he's talking about

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Speaker 1: different surgical procedures different. This different that what we've seen

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Speaker 1: from Kansas City this year, lost seven games in their

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Speaker 1: first fourteen as our first fifteen as a favorite.

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Speaker 2: Like either way, not pretty.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, what do you make from this game

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Speaker 1: other than the fact that I'll say this, the Chargers

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Speaker 1: were hitting really hard in this game from Worthy to Rice,

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Speaker 1: like they were knocking Casey on the ground. It kind

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Speaker 1: of this is a weird thing to say, kind of

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Speaker 1: felt like the Chargers wanted it more and that just

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Speaker 1: made no sense to me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's hard. Like you said, the dynasty

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Speaker 3: is not over, but this version of the team that's

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Speaker 3: probably he is finally it. We probably finally have to

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Speaker 3: let this version go. And look, that's when a version

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Speaker 3: of a dynasty ms, it doesn't usually like it doesn't

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Speaker 3: go down swinging all as it sometimes goes out with

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Speaker 3: a bit of a whimper. And so I feel like

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Speaker 3: that's a little bit what we saw today some of

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Speaker 3: those injuries, some of those big hits. I kind of

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Speaker 3: thought that those were on Mahomes, like we saw that

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Speaker 3: last week too. He's getting a little desperate and hitting

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Speaker 3: his guys over the middle and setting his guys up.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know, like I in some ways just

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Speaker 3: as a fan of football, and we've had so much

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Speaker 3: Chiefs for so long, and we've all year like they've

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Speaker 3: been in a hole from the beginning. They lost the

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Speaker 3: first game, and they've been trying to toge out of

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Speaker 3: a hole, and we as animalsts, have been trying to

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Speaker 3: figure out what do they have to do to get out.

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Speaker 3: It's over. It's it's literally over. They are out. They're eliminated.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs are out, and they're really out now because

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Speaker 3: Gardner minshew the rest of the way. So look, I

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Speaker 3: have the chief still fourth and my power today, even

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Speaker 3: as they weren't a playoff team, I still had to

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Speaker 3: give them credit game to game as still being one

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Speaker 3: of the better teams in the league. That probably was

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Speaker 3: wrong in hindsight because they can't get these wins week

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Speaker 3: after a week, But it doesn't matter now, like they're

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Speaker 3: clearly not even bottom or top half of the league. Ironically,

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Speaker 3: the defense really looked pretty good the last couple weeks,

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Speaker 3: Like the defense played Chiefs caliber, super Bowl caliber type

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Speaker 3: defense for them and kept them in this game. Chargers look,

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Speaker 3: I guess this has to be a chief segment. But

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Speaker 3: I can't say I was expecting the Chargers to win

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Speaker 3: a six day window beat the both Super Bowl teams

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Speaker 3: Chiefs Eagles by three. I thought they'd lose both of

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Speaker 3: those games. They got both wins. They're probably in the

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Speaker 3: playoffs at this point, but not great to score sixteen points.

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Speaker 3: Herbert on the run at all times get the win,

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Speaker 3: but not the greatest showing for them. With Mahomes into

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Speaker 3: the future, I can't say I'm that worried, Like the

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Speaker 3: ACL in twenty twenty five is not a death sentence

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Speaker 3: like it felt like ten fifteen, twenty years ago. Honestly,

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Speaker 3: I would expect week one at this point until we

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Speaker 3: hear otherwise. I think he'll be ready to go. If

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Speaker 3: it's something more than that, and we'll see. We don't

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Speaker 3: know if it's partial or full. We don't know what

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Speaker 3: sort of operation surgery they'll need to do. I think

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Speaker 3: a little bit of Jason Tatum and the Celtics in

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Speaker 3: the NBA like to me, and look, the Celtics are

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Speaker 3: pretty good right now too, So maybe not the right analogy,

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Speaker 3: but if even if they're ready to go week one.

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Speaker 3: So this is the earliest Patrick Mahomes has been eliminated

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Speaker 3: by six weeks in an NFL season. The earliest he'd

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Speaker 3: been eliminated in any season in his life was the

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Speaker 3: last play of the AC Championship game. That's crazy. There

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Speaker 3: are six weeks of football until that happens. He got

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Speaker 3: eliminated in overtime twice the NFCY Championship Game and made

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. That's it. That's his entire career. We

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Speaker 3: still have three weeks left in three weeks before that,

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Speaker 3: Mahomes doesn't really get the rest. He's gonna have to rehab.

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Speaker 3: Like the Chiefs, should just shut it down. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if Kelsey is retiring, so maybe that complicates it.

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Speaker 3: But if he's not shut it down, Kelsey shut it down.

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Speaker 3: Chris Jones like these guys, like the Celtics, have been

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Speaker 3: playing deep into the season year after year after year,

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Speaker 3: getting all the extra massage playoff mileage on their bodies.

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Speaker 3: This might be finally the reset that they badly have needed.

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Speaker 3: Like they've been the dudes for half a decade, taking

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Speaker 3: everyone's best shot every single week. They get a little

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Speaker 3: rest now, honestly they need it. And maybe you're right,

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Speaker 3: maybe this is a reset. Maybe you kind of know,

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Speaker 3: even if Mahomes goes Week one, we're not getting one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent Mahomes all season. Maybe you make some hard

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Speaker 3: cap decisions. Maybe you kind of pull back a year,

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Speaker 3: one step back, three steps four the next year after that.

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Speaker 3: This is not the end of the dynasty. Like Mahomes

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Speaker 3: has a decade still and he's gonna be fine. I'm

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Speaker 3: not worried zero percent long term about him, but could

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Speaker 3: impact next year. I think yes, in the way that

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Speaker 3: like the Celtics did, they kind of let some guys go,

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Speaker 3: They made some financial decisions, and look, they're still doing

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Speaker 3: pretty well too, And the Chiefs are pretty well run

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Speaker 3: a franchise and Mahomes ain't going anywhere, so I think

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Speaker 3: they'll be fine. It's done now, we don't really they're

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys. We don't need to talk with the Chiefs anymore.

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Speaker 3: It's a very weird sentiment.

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Speaker 1: The thing that really got me obviously, watching the end

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Speaker 1: of the game, and probably very minis skul in terms

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Speaker 1: of the bigger impact than the next year and everything

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Speaker 1: that matters a Kainsas City. But Minshew really shouldn't have

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Speaker 1: thrown that interception, and they really had a chance to

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Speaker 1: like kick the field goal and kind of figure out

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Speaker 1: what the heck happens. I will say this that line

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Speaker 1: they're in Tennessee next week. The look ahead or the

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Speaker 1: line was ten and a half, down to four and

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Speaker 1: a half, now down to three and a half. Have

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Speaker 1: no idea what Kansas City's even going to bring to

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Speaker 1: the table next week. And I would be shocked to

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Speaker 1: see Travis Kelcey catching his last passes in the NFL

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Speaker 1: from Gardner Minshew doesn't really feel like it's either your

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Speaker 1: coming back and do whatever the heck you want or like,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like that doesn't feel right.

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Speaker 1: So I think he's got a lot to think about

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Speaker 1: in terms of that, and I think Kansas City should

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Speaker 1: probably look to get another tight end, Like I think

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Speaker 1: Kelsey's super important to consistency, to experience to like in

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Speaker 1: big Like if you noticed at the end of that game,

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Speaker 1: when Kansas City absolutely needed Kelsey was catching balls, the

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Speaker 1: ball was going to him in key spots because they

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Speaker 1: trust him, and I think.

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Speaker 2: That is great.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to Kyle Pitts isn't the right answer,

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Speaker 1: but someone like that in that spot that they can be.

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Speaker 2: He could be the workload.

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Speaker 1: He can get all the work and then when it

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Speaker 1: counts third down, big games, December, whatever, Travis is still there.

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Speaker 1: I think something that is doable or you know, something

433
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 1: that is possible for them. So that's the way I

434
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 1: look at it. But Chris Jones falling apart, like everyone

435
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: just needs to shut down and kind of move on.

436
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: I had mentioned that the Chiefs have lost seven games

437
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: is a favorite this year, tied for the most for

438
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: a team first fourteen games since nineteen ninety mahomes twenty

439
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 1: five and I'm sorry, thirty five and five versus the

440
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,639
Speaker 1: AFC West entering this year now one in three. This

441
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 1: was just a completely different thing from Kansas City. Also,

442
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 1: look at it like this case was one in seven

443
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 1: against the spread versus teams above five hundred this year

444
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 1: four and zero versus teams below five hundred. That was

445
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: just the season they had. So moving on, I'll give

446
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 1: you these stats and you're gonna hear them everywhere. First,

447
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: playoffs since nineteen ninety eight without Brady Manning or Mahomes.

448
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: Now we've got our first AFC title game without Mahomes

449
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: or Brady since twenty ten. All the stats are gonna

450
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: come out there, and they're all just the new era

451
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 1: of the NFL. And honestly, I think for this playoffs,

452
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a bad thing. So that's the

453
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: way I look at it. But anything else with charges Chiefs.

454
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned the late Minshew interception. I agree, inexplicable,

455
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 3: you can't do it. But guess what on the drive

456
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 3: right before that, the other quarterback through an interception just

457
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 3: as inexplicable at the one yard line, already in field

458
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 3: goal range. That was Mahomes. That's been the chief season.

459
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 3: Mahomes wasn't good enough, and he didn't get the help

460
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 3: he certainly needs the help. Our producer David says, get

461
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 3: David and Joku in here. Certainly they got to get

462
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 3: somebody that can be on the same page. Like Kelsey is.

463
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 3: Physically it is shot at this point, but it's just

464
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 3: the way that they know exactly what each other are doing.

465
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 3: And like Mahomes doesn't have trust in his receivers and

466
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 3: we saw that a lot throughout this season. Big drops

467
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 3: again today where she writes big drops again, but he

468
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: wasn't good enough either, Like it's it's everything. You don't

469
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: get eliminated as Super Bowl favorites three weeks with ready

470
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 3: to go the line injuries like the fourth tackle got

471
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 3: hurt today, Like it's everything, it's all over the place.

472
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 3: The other last note, I had you mentioned the Titans

473
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 3: game next week. Weirdly, all this Chiefs nonsense might have

474
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 3: a pretty big impact on the draft. The Titans and

475
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 3: the Raiders still play the Chiefs and suddenly might accidentally

476
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 3: win those games, and that could really change, Like the

477
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,239
Speaker 3: Chiefs might accidentally lose a game to the Raiders and

478
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 3: accidentally not have the number one quarterback beyond the Raiders,

479
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 3: like a year for down the line like in the AFC.

480
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 3: Weirdly we talk about all the good quarterbacks are in

481
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 3: the AFC, right, Well, if the Titans and Raiders accidentally

482
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,439
Speaker 3: beat the Chiefs and drop down the race, maybe this

483
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 3: kind of weirdly pushes some quarterbacks over to the NFC

484
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 3: and then resets the draft order a little bit. So

485
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 3: only I'm coming up with draft order response to Chiefs

486
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,959
Speaker 3: Mahomes News, but I think it's in place, so I'm

487
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: gonna keep an eye on here.

488
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: I don't know.

489
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 1: I don't know if the Raiders can even beat Ohio

490
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,199
Speaker 1: State or Indiana right now, but we're going I have

491
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: to see how that came.

492
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 3: But you can bet number one draft picks so we

493
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 3: can make this actionable. Maybe look for an NFC team

494
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 3: and a number one peck. Maybe it's the Giants. Maybe

495
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 3: they'll finally come through.

496
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: Giants Raiders in a few weeks. Can't wait for that one.

497
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 1: Bill's Patriots.

498
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 2: Oh boy.

499
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: Buffalo wins the game thirty five thirty one, cover minus

500
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: two and a half on the road, total over forty

501
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I'll just start with this. I

502
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: want your thoughts on it, and then we can go

503
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 1: into a little bit more. But it seems like New

504
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: England fans didn't love some of the referee calls in

505
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 1: this game. I don't know if you are up on

506
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: some of those discussions, but have you seen any of

507
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: those comments.

508
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 3: I'll be honest, I didn't see a lot of thatch

509
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 3: fill me in a little bit.

510
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just to the fact that I think

511
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: a lot of the calls that were made in this

512
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: game in favor of Josh. Josh kind of pleeing to

513
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: the refs allowed Buffalo to get back in the game

514
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 1: in a few areas. They're pretty pissed off. There's a

515
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 1: lot of social media stuff going on. To me, this

516
00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: was just what you scripted out, like, this is what

517
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: we've seen week to week from both.

518
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 2: Of these teams.

519
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: The only thing I'll say is this from a positive

520
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: standpoint from New England, I really did like their run

521
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: game this week, and that was one thing I think

522
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: I was very questionable about going forward, and usually hard

523
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 1: to win in December, January and hopefully February if you don't.

524
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: Have a run game. Stevenson looked good.

525
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: Henderson had some big runs and even some big runs

526
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: that honestly should have been probably knocked down in behind

527
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage. So I did like what I

528
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: saw from New England's run game, and that's probably one

529
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: of the positives out of this. I mean, you look

530
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: at the box score, you know some things went off

531
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 1: in terms of the penalties you had to turn over,

532
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 1: like Buffalo just didn't do that stuff which led to

533
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: the comeback.

534
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 2: But Buffalo's three and.

535
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 1: Eleven first half ats worst mark in the NFL Patriots

536
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: eleven and three best mark in the NFL. Josh has

537
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: lost seven straight first half ats against the Patriots. This

538
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: is just something that happens all the time. The thing

539
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 1: was is all the tweets that went out that were

540
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 1: like the Patriots are the best and all this stuff,

541
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 1: you probably should have waited five minutes into the third

542
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 1: quarter to at least see one Buffalo drive to be like,

543
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: oh they punted, Yeah, this one's over. But they scored

544
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: their first four drives out of the second half, and

545
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 1: they didn't score on that fifth drive because I honestly

546
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 1: didn't want it. They ran three times and punted because

547
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:21,439
Speaker 1: they wanted the pin New England.

548
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 2: So I don't know.

549
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: This was a I've never seen a game a more

550
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: tail of two halfs, and that's kind of what we

551
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: got here.

552
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, we had the script. This was a really big

553
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 3: hit for us off the best best Patriots first half,

554
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 3: Bill's second half. We played them together, We played Pat's

555
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 3: first half, Bill's full time. We got everything. That one

556
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 3: was plus four ninety A really good outcome for US.

557
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: I gotta say I was not hoping for Patriots twenty one.

558
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 3: Nothing that was not the same I wanted. I was like,

559
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 3: you can slow down now, we're good on the first half.

560
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,400
Speaker 3: Bet let the Bills back in. You mentioned the four

561
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 3: touchdowns for Buffalo out of the halftime. They did get

562
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 3: one just for the half, and I think like got

563
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 3: a little bit like close the gap a little bit

564
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 3: got them going. So Travion Henderson two huge runs in

565
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 3: this game. I'm trying to look here, what is a

566
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: sixty five yarder in the second half on a one

567
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 3: play drive and then a fifty two yarder in the

568
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 3: first half. Only twelve rushes thirty four yards outside of that,

569
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 3: so though those count, but that's not a great line.

570
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 2: That's what he brings to the table.

571
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 3: It's true he is now. I see at DraftKings Trevian

572
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 3: Henderson is the new offensive Rookie of the Year favorite

573
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 3: right now. I don't know if I'm there on that.

574
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: That feels reactionary to this game. I don't know that

575
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 3: that's for me. I still feel like Ted McMillan third

576
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 3: in the odds seems a little bit more likely to me.

577
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 3: I know it didn't do a lot today, but yeah,

578
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 3: the Patriots run game was good, but they didn't stick

579
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 3: with it, like this is what's happening in these Bills games.

580
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 3: That's what happened with the Bengals game to the Patriots

581
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 3: end up five point four yards of play even excluding

582
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 3: those two long runs, but they didn't stick with the

583
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 3: run game. They were successful in the run game, but

584
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 3: they passed the ball like twice as much. Drake may

585
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 3: finishes with negative EPA on passes against a beatable pass defense.

586
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 3: I think this probably cost an MVP. The market right

587
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 3: now agrees with that. That stafford is like minus three

588
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 3: hundred and a clear favorite. Now. They were fifty nine

589
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 3: percent success rate running the football, one hundredth percent dial

590
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 3: by EPA per play running the football against a D

591
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,239
Speaker 3: team that we know you should run on. But they

592
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:34,239
Speaker 3: didn't stick with it. Only twenty two runs, way too

593
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: many passes, and their MVP candidate did not come through today.

594
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 3: Josh Allen did enough. James Cook ran the ball. Buffalo

595
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: committed to running the football and actually did the thing,

596
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 3: And I feel like that was kind of the swing

597
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: the second half. Buffalo played the way it wanted to

598
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 3: and got away from an early the Patriots in the

599
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 3: second half. Outside of that sixty five year touchdown run,

600
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 3: which is kind of a broken play, right he went

601
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 3: to the and like swooped all the way background to

602
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 3: the left and got into space. Other than that play,

603
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 3: they ran seventeen plays in the second half for fifteen yards,

604
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 3: less than a yard per play the entire half other

605
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 3: than the one long touchdown. So, man, I don't know,

606
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 3: Sean McDermott, what do you do? And we thought the

607
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 3: defense was cooked. I'm getting texts at halftime the Bills

608
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: can't stop a nosebleed. They're never going to stop them

609
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 3: this game, and then they completely shut it down outside

610
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 3: of one broken run. So I'm not so too worried

611
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 3: about the Patriots. You split with the Bills, that's fine,

612
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 3: But these are the only two games we really have

613
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 3: as measuring sticks for this team. So if the Patriots

614
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: came into the day as the MVP possibly favorite and

615
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 3: as the one seed possibly favorite, okay, well this has

616
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 3: to be a different version of that team. Like we

617
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 3: know the Bills are not the best team in the

618
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 3: league this year. If you're playing them basically even then

619
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 3: we have to lower our opinion of you. It's weird

620
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: world we're in now, but that's kind of where we're at.

621
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 3: On this team. Big picture, Patriots will still win the division.

622
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: Like this is one. I said this a few weeks

623
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 3: ago about Eagles and Cowboys. I think after the big

624
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 3: same sort of comeback I said, a big picture doesn't

625
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 3: really matter all that much. The Patriots still clinch the division.

626
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 3: If they beat the Jets and the Dolphins, which they

627
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 3: probably should, they should be fine. The Bills are still

628
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 3: going to be the five or the six seed. I

629
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 3: don't think much really changes out of this. I do

630
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 3: think that it may have cost Drake May the MVP.

631
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to have more moments left. Right.

632
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 3: They have an easy schedule, but nobody cares. We don't

633
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: really care what you're doing against the Jets and week eighteen,

634
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 3: congrats on doing that. It's Stafford's to lose. Now on

635
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 3: a Thursday, he might lose it against Seattle. I think

636
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 3: as long as if the Rams win that game, I

637
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 3: think that that's probably it for MVP. But yeah, a

638
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 3: really fun game, probably the most fun back and forth

639
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 3: game of the day, and the big comeback and a

640
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 3: day of a lot of comebacks. But yeah, it it

641
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 3: to me. The Patriots have been a team that I

642
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 3: have not gotten anywhere near power rating on them to

643
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 3: a top top of the league team, and that's sort

644
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 3: of what it felt like we saw today. I don't

645
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 3: even know if this is a top ten team necessarily.

646
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 3: I think they're good. I just don't think they're great,

647
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 3: and we saw some flaws come far to that.

648
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: I'm only going to push you back on one thing.

649
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: Both Stafford and May in primetime next week, so I

650
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: feel like they both do have like an opportunity to pick,

651
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: so there is that there is something there potentially, like

652
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: if he lights up the Ravens, Like, I don't know

653
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: there's options there. I will just say this, Josh Allen's

654
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: down to five to one, Like I feel like they

655
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: want to pick Josh Allen and just can't at this

656
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: point because Matthew Stafford is just playing so much better.

657
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens in Seattle on Thursday night.

658
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 1: But it is interesting and you've got both candidates kind

659
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: of playing in primetime in their opportun unities to show

660
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: the world maybe one more time before New England goes

661
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 1: ahead and faces the Jets and Dolphins and we just

662
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 1: don't see him again to the playoffs. The one thing

663
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: I'll say is this before I'm ready to roll on.

664
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 1: Patriots led twenty one to nothing blue, the lead they

665
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 1: had won seventy one straight up twenty one plus last

666
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: loss in twenty eleven. I mean, this was one that

667
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 1: I think Vrabel's gonna have to have a few early

668
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 1: meetings this week and try to just eliminate this game.

669
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: This doesn't happen. Let's move forward. Let's talk about Baltimore

670
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 1: because you're hoping this one doesn't stick. You get your

671
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 1: first real game since the Buffalo win that really is

672
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: like your staple game, the game he got to show

673
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: up for. And you blow a twenty one point lead.

674
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: It's a difficult one that you that you don't want

675
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 1: to leave around. Maybe I don't know, maybe you've burned

676
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 1: the playbooks, you do some sort of like stupid thing

677
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 1: that another coach has done to try to like bury

678
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: what's going on here.

679
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 2: But that's the way I look at it.

680
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: Also, this is a kind of an underrated stat that

681
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 1: honestly says a little bit.

682
00:33:58,520 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: I was surprised by this.

683
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: Flows five and oh against the spread versus teams above

684
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: five hundred, Like they've done a really decent job at

685
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 1: beating who they need to be so with that. It's

686
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: hard to fight what I see when the stats tell

687
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: me otherwise.

688
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree five and oh against teams about five hundred,

689
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 3: so it speaks for itself.

690
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 2: Hard to beat it.

691
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna add MVP odds right now at

692
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 3: DraftKings just so you hear them all together. Stafford the

693
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 3: clear leader minus three hundred seventy five percent implied Drake

694
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 3: Bay plus four to twenty five, Josh Allen plus five

695
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 3: point fifty. That's wild and too me, Like, I'm not

696
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 3: putting Josh Allen nearly even oposit Drake May after one

697
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 3: really big swing in this game, Like I can't get there.

698
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 3: But I think it's because that basically the MVP market's

699
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 3: telling us that's it. Because I have to add in

700
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 3: the fourth favor right now at DraftKings is Bowe knicks

701
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 3: at seventy five to one for MVP reaction here anybody

702
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 3: I think that's that a little bit. But to me,

703
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 3: that just tells me we're down to really three options.

704
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 3: We don't really really want to give it to anybody,

705
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 3: like we're not really finding anyone running away with it.

706
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 3: But that's why I think if the Rams go to

707
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 3: Seattle and get the win Thursday night. I think that

708
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 3: effectively locks in the one seed and all realistic outcomes

709
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 3: with the Packers loss. Adding on to that, and I

710
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 3: think I don't think Stafford wound has to be that good.

711
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 3: I think they just have to win the game, lock

712
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 3: up the one seed. The Broncos are not going to

713
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 3: have an MVP, sorry to all the Bonex truthers, Like

714
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 3: I've said enough things about him on this podcast tonight,

715
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 3: but we can stop before MVP. I don't see it

716
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,399
Speaker 3: with Josh Allen, Like voters don't want to go back

717
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 3: to back on MVPs anyways, Traditionally, they don't necessarily do that.

718
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 3: And people didn't necessarily love that he was the winner

719
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 3: last year, and so to give it on a worse

720
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 3: season now to a worst team with the worst record,

721
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 3: I have a hard time seeing that. Like, I don't know.

722
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 3: The Patriots would have to lose the division, so they'd

723
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 3: have to really collapse, and the Bills would have to

724
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 3: really win out the Rams have to collapse. We would

725
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 3: just have to be nothing left standing, Like it's either

726
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 3: Alan or Box. I guess. I guess we'll give it

727
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 3: to Josh Hellen. That's what we're looking at there, but yeah,

728
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 3: it was. It was a fun game. It's a game

729
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 3: that we might get again later like this to me

730
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 3: could be a good second round playoff game, and the

731
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 3: AFC certainly is looking open and maybe we'll see, you know,

732
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: we'll see both these teams, probably at least on the

733
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 3: second weekend.

734
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: All right. Speaking of the MVP favorite, Lions Rams Rams

735
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 2: win the game forty one thirty four cover minus five

736
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 2: and a half at home on the closed total over

737
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 2: fifty four and a half. I don't want to call

738
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 2: it a career achievement award, but it kind of is,

739
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 2: plus the fact he deserves it.

740
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: Like it's a career achievement award on one side, but

741
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: it's also if that didn't matter, he would still be

742
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 1: the MVP favorite at this point, so both things working together.

743
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 1: Kind of difficult to see how Stafford would blow this

744
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: award at this point. So I kind of believe it's his.

745
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 1: But I think the biggest storyline again Jesus with this

746
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: game would be DeVonta Adams. Like short week, he's probably

747
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 1: not playing in Seattle, that would be a guess of mine.

748
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 2: I mean, who knows.

749
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: I don't think we've heard exactly where we are with

750
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: the injury, but based off the hamstring, based off how.

751
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 2: It looked, that's the assumption.

752
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: So if it's just Pooka out there and Stafford does

753
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: this thing even more impressive. If they lose the game

754
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 1: by seven to eight ten points and he doesn't play well,

755
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 1: I think you'll the voters would kind of forget that

756
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 1: Devonte didn't play. I think it's just a part of

757
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: the resume. So I think it's a bit of a

758
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 1: tough spot. But to me, probably the best thing I

759
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 1: can take out of this game from the Rams side, unfortunately,

760
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 1: would be the Devonte injury.

761
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 2: On the other side, I mean, they did a great

762
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 2: job coming back in this game.

763
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 1: I mean they were Detroit led twenty four to fourteen

764
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 1: near the end of the first quarter. You turn around

765
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 1: in middle of the fourth quarter, it's forty one twenty

766
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,240
Speaker 1: seven Rams to twenty seven three run in the middle

767
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: of this game that Detroit just seemed completely out of whack.

768
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: And that's with amanrof first half going eleven targets, nine receptions,

769
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty seven yards and two touchdowns and

770
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: the Lions end up not covering the game almost it

771
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,240
Speaker 1: seems unfathomable.

772
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm gonna take a little bit more

773
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 3: than you did about the Rams. They put up a

774
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,959
Speaker 3: ninety ninth percentile success rate in this game. They were

775
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 3: downright dominant, sixty percent success to thirty six percent. That

776
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 3: is a huge, huge margin. When we see those grasps

777
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 3: of did we deserve to win? The Rams should have

778
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 3: won by a lot more than what they did. Their

779
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 3: offense just continues to do crazy things and defensively, look,

780
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 3: they got lit up in the passing game. I thought

781
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 3: I picked Detroit in this game to stay close and

782
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 3: possibly be able to win. I thought physicality in the

783
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 3: run game would be the calling card. We know how

784
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 3: good Montgomery and Gibbs are together. Twenty runs, seventy yards,

785
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 3: one touchdown between the two guys. That is a win

786
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 3: every day of the week for the Rams defense. So

787
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:07,320
Speaker 3: their run defense held up. Their offense is so good

788
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 3: to me and my like a matrix ranking rosters and teams.

789
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 3: The Rams lap the field offensively like I have them.

790
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 3: Just the offense alone is worth about two and a

791
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: half points of the spread, more than any other offense

792
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,439
Speaker 3: in the league, just on offense, and then they're still

793
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 3: pretty good at defense, and that's from number two compared

794
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 3: to all the rest of the teams. Like, put it

795
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 3: this way, I have the Lions as a top five

796
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 3: team in the NFL right now, and the Rams just

797
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 3: beat them by twenty four percent success rate. One of

798
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 3: every four plays they ran was successful that Detroits wasn't.

799
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 3: Like this score line doesn't really show that. But we

800
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 3: keep looking for who is the top team in the NFL.

801
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 3: This is a sort of beatdown statistically that shows who

802
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 3: the answer is if you're doing that to a possible

803
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 3: top five team, which, by the way, the Lions might

804
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 3: be tough five, but they might be our next Chiefs

805
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 3: if they're not careful. They're back out of the playoffs now.

806
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 3: They're the eighth seed now, and they probably are looking

807
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 3: hoping Green Bay slips like that might be the best

808
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 3: shot right now for them to get in because there's

809
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 3: just not a lot of space over in the NFC.

810
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 3: They're down to about a quarter of the about twenty

811
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 3: five percent chance to make the playoffs now. They play Pittsburgh,

812
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 3: at Minnesota, at Chicago. Those are winnable games. I'm gonna

813
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 3: certainly like Detroit in those games, at least straight up

814
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 3: they're ninety five percent playoffs if they win out, so

815
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 3: if they can just win those games, they'll probably be okay.

816
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 3: But we've been saying that about the Chiefs for a

817
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 3: few weeks now, and I'm starting to get that feeling

818
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 3: a little bit here. I agree with you on DeVante.

819
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 3: I don't think he plays this week, and I'm gonna

820
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 3: go a step further. They sound optimistic. You don't play.

821
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,240
Speaker 3: He was already on a hamstring injury, he was already

822
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 3: not necessarily practicing because of it. This is a second

823
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 3: injury to hamstring for a week receiver. I think he

824
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 3: has a very low shot to play Thursday. Just my

825
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 3: personal opinion, not a doctor. I think we might not

826
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 3: see DeVonta Adams until the playoffs because if he doesn't

827
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 3: play Thursday, I don't know if they really need him

828
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 3: after that. Like I think, you just want to get

829
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 3: him healthy, and they got bigger things to worry about

830
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 3: than a few regular season games. If they win Thursday,

831
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 3: they're probably the one seed. They don't really need him

832
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 3: after that. If they lose, they probably aren't the one seed,

833
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 3: and they just want to get healthy for a playoff run.

834
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 3: I think we might not see Devonte again. I was

835
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:38,720
Speaker 3: looking at touchdown reception, like touchdown receiving market, because he's ahead.

836
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,720
Speaker 3: He's at fourteen, I think, but Almand's up to eleven.

837
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 3: We got a trade McBride ticket. He's at ten after

838
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 3: a couple today. It's possible. We only have three games left,

839
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: but I don't think we see DeVante Thursday or anytime

840
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 3: soon personally.

841
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 1: I mean, you can definitely tie and get and get

842
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 1: some like some of that muneying off that, So that's

843
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,359
Speaker 1: definitely possible. I think that's the right goal. I mean,

844
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 1: Detroit home next week against Pittsburgh will be on short rest.

845
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: Detroit right now is a touchdown favorite in that game,

846
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 1: and of course you have the famous Detroit off a

847
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: loss where they've now won fifteen in a row, fourteen

848
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 1: and one against the spread. That's the crazy one to me.

849
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 1: Detroit has now alternated wins and losses in their last

850
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: ten games, ten games, winning out right after each loss.

851
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 1: I mean, they just there is literally zero consistency in

852
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 1: what Detroit is putting together right now. And again Pittsburgh

853
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: at Minnesota on Christmas, Merry Christmas for that one, and

854
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 1: then I think their hope is that that Chicago game

855
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 1: at the end of the year doesn't mean anything for Chicago.

856
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: Like I think they want Chicago to win the division

857
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: at this point, I think it'd be easier because I

858
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: think you want that game to just not matter to them.

859
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 2: That because I think going.

860
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 1: To Chicago, where say Chicago needs to beat Detroit for

861
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: whatever reason to win the division at that point, I

862
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: think isn't ideal for them because again, in that eighth spot,

863
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: they're going to need every win. And who knows what

864
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's gonna look like next week, and we just saw

865
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: what Minnesota could look like. So a little bit of

866
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 1: a tough one to me there, but difficult. Also we

867
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: said this about the Patriots, but since it started twenty

868
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 1: twenty four, Detroit's twenty one in zero straight up when

869
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 1: leading by ten plus obviously losing today's game. Their last

870
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: such loss was the playoff game against the forty nine ers.

871
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: So definitely not memories that they're looking for. But to me,

872
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: that's that's what I got here. That's Rams and allons.

873
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's Rams. They're Seahawks. Next, let's go to the

874
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 3: Seahawks game aka the philip Rivers return.

875
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 2: All right, Seattle wins the game eighteen sixteen.

876
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 1: Indy covers the plus twelve and a half on close

877
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 1: on the road total goes under forty.

878
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:46,280
Speaker 2: One and a half.

879
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 1: I mean Indie leads thirteen three and a half Seattle

880
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 1: one of six on third down in the first half,

881
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 1: eighty total yards. Colts have nine more minutes possession in

882
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 1: the first half, fourteen more plays. It was literally exactly

883
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: how Shane Stiken probably would have wanted to write it up.

884
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:06,240
Speaker 2: Is exactly how it happened.

885
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 1: And I think going down the stretch even got Rivers

886
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 1: out there two minute drive trailing in the game, ready

887
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,720
Speaker 1: to roll, ready to do his thing. So I think

888
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 1: Indy couldn't have asked for a better opportunity to try

889
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: to steal one, and unfortunately a bunch of long field

890
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: goals and a bunch of things happened that just you

891
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,359
Speaker 1: missed it by a few inches. Now, if you want

892
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: to look at Philip Rivers and then I'll also to

893
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: you eighteen to twenty seven, one hundred and twenty yards,

894
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 1: but a Mira Abdula at Indian receiving yards end receptions,

895
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: Rivers was two of eight passing ten plus yards downfield.

896
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:46,399
Speaker 1: He was his a dot today was five point three.

897
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we have a realistic expectation for

898
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: what Philip Rivers is. He's not going to make too

899
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 1: many mistakes. He's going to make the smart play. He's

900
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: going to what I and this might be the most

901
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 1: important thing. He's going to motivate the cold. The Colts

902
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:05,439
Speaker 1: as a whole team felt lively today. They felt all

903
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 1: and especially the defense, like they as a team felt

904
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 1: like we're gonna do this. I don't know if it

905
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 1: disappears because they stayed in the game, they played really well.

906
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 1: Maybe they should have won the game. Now next week

907
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 1: they're like five and a half six point dogs on

908
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 1: Monday Night football against the forty nine ers, which is

909
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 1: going to be an absolute utter spectacle. But that's how

910
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: I felt today. I felt Indy was extremely motivated.

911
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it seem like we're getting Cinderella story. Groupie sixty

912
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:40,280
Speaker 3: yard field goal career long gives them a one point

913
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 3: lead under a minute left, but alas Seattle, right back

914
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:45,959
Speaker 3: down the field they get the field goal. Six field

915
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 3: goals for Seattle. To me, big picture, the Colts are

916
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 3: probably not in the big picture that much anymore. For

917
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 3: being very fair. Yeah, Seattle, this is a pretty worrying

918
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: result for Seattle's offense. Don't forget the Colts are missing

919
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 3: I think probably they're three best defenders. They're missing both corners,

920
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 3: and they're missing their star defensive tackle. This is not

921
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 3: a good defense anymore. It wasn't a great defense anyway.

922
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 3: But Seattle's offense, I've already kind of had my like

923
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 3: I had this game circleed a couple of weeks ago

924
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 3: before the Daniel Jones thing, as these might be the

925
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 3: two teams from early in the season, both coming down

926
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 3: to earth. How do we fade both of them? And

927
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 3: Seattle gets the win but nowhere close to covering like

928
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 3: never ever had a shot to cover the fourteen in

929
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 3: this game or whatever. It closed as Seale's offense slowly

930
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 3: trending down. And I don't have a pick yet on

931
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 3: Thursday night, but I would certainly take the Rams if

932
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 3: I had to, because we saw Darnold look really bad

933
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 3: in the last game against the Rams, and I think

934
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 3: he hasn't really looked great since then, to be honest.

935
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,479
Speaker 3: In the offense, the run game was not good again

936
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 3: today That's been the case with them. Defense great defense

937
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 3: was awesome. The Colts had two hundred and fifteen yards

938
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 3: under four yards of play, thirty eight percent success rate.

939
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 3: Defense just I think Seattle clearly deserved the win. They

940
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 3: are lucky that they got there with all the field goals. Rivers, Yeah,

941
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:12,439
Speaker 3: not terrible considering the defense. Considering the spot, I thought

942
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 3: a lot of loft on his balls, not a lot

943
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 3: of zip there, so kind of you know, similar we saw,

944
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:20,879
Speaker 3: I mean honestly with him five years ago, but Drew

945
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 3: Brees other guys like that late in the career. I'm

946
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 3: curious what that will look like now that that's on tape, Like,

947
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 3: how do teams respond to there. I do think we'll

948
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 3: get to the Monday Night preview for this one for

949
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 3: tomorrow soon next week's Monday Night preview. I'll tell you

950
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 3: right now, I'm very tempted by the Colts because I've

951
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 3: been ragging on the forty nine ers defense for all

952
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 3: season that they don't have a lot of talent there.

953
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 3: That is a very different task in the Seahawks defense,

954
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 3: And if the Colts have some belief, I think Rivers

955
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 3: can throw on the Niners and actually do some stuff

956
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,760
Speaker 3: and maybe give one more shot at Cinderella. Right now,

957
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 3: Colts are ten percent to make the playoffs. They go

958
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:07,240
Speaker 3: Niners Jaguars, then on short rest at Houston to close. Yikes,

959
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 3: that's not great. Both likely this was the end, this

960
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 3: was the shot, This was the game you steal and

961
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 3: get back into the mix. They had it, they stole it,

962
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 3: they gave it back. They're ninety eight percent if they

963
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 3: went out, but they're not winning out with rivers and

964
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 3: all those injuries in that schedule. This was probably it

965
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 3: unless this maybe not. Maybe we get one more Cinderella

966
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 3: next Monday night. We'll preview that one next week.

967
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:39,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, honestly can't wait for that one. Indies playoff odds

968
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 1: went from plus two to fifty to about eight to

969
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 1: one with the loss, and I think that probably says

970
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 1: it all. All right, let's keep rolling here. New Orleans

971
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 1: beats Carolina twenty seventeen covers plus two and a half

972
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: at home, total under forty one and a half. It

973
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 1: was just and this is probably the more unusual way

974
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 1: Carolina could have lost this game. A fast start, a

975
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 1: good first half, really just great. Three points in three

976
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 1: of their first four drives, two touchdowns. I mean, when

977
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 1: Carolina starts fast, I almost believe they're gonna win the game,

978
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 1: because it's usually that's the issue and they're coming from

979
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: behind and they just don't get there, and then the

980
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,399
Speaker 1: complete opposite happens, I mean points on those first three

981
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 1: or four drives and then turnover on downs, punt punt fumble,

982
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,319
Speaker 1: and then the game is over. You just basically kind

983
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 1: of handed this one to Shuck in the Saints. It

984
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 1: was just an absolute terrible collapse, and the entire season

985
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 1: is still in front of him, like this game kind

986
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: of means nothing. It just basically says, Okay, those two

987
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: Tampa games still super important. But for the Tampa Bay

988
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 1: Buccaneers to lose to the Falcons and for the Panthers

989
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 1: to lose to the Saints, I just want to blow

990
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 1: this goddamn division into the space, into space.

991
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 2: This is I couldn't be just more frust.

992
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's honestly good for gambling, because I

993
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 1: did have some money on the Saints and the Falcons,

994
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 1: and I feel like that's you just take dogs and

995
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:01,319
Speaker 1: go from there. Since Tampa Bay's favorite against Carolina next week.

996
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:06,760
Speaker 1: But absolutely ridiculous. And again the stat the craziest stat

997
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 1: and sometimes it just has to end. But Panthers still

998
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 1: haven't won or covered as a favorite in a game

999
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 1: since September of twenty twenty.

1000
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 2: One, four full years ago.

1001
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:19,040
Speaker 1: Now coming in on five, they've lost twelve straight in

1002
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 1: that spot. Just absolutely crazy. And here's and Bryce Bryce

1003
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 1: Young now owen nine straight up after the one PM window,

1004
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 1: when he's got more eyes on him. We haven't seen

1005
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 1: him win a game.

1006
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, this division is hilarious. The Saints are now three

1007
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 3: and two in the division. Somehow, the Saints sweep the Panthers.

1008
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 3: Just just what in the world to make of the division?

1009
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 3: Fred Kellen Moore, Tyler Shuck. They call the quarterback draw

1010
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 3: with nine seconds on the clock, just trying to pick

1011
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 3: up a few more yards for the field goal, and

1012
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 3: Shuck gets absolutely demolished, and so they get the fifteen

1013
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 3: yard penn on the out of it. Charlie Smith, we

1014
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 3: did get our Cinderella story. The Irish kicker, who they

1015
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 3: just signed a couple of weeks ago, comes in and

1016
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,279
Speaker 3: hits the forty seven yarder for the win. I think

1017
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 3: Tyler Shuck probably has won the job for next year.

1018
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 3: They've got a couple of big wins here, and look

1019
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 3: those wins are knocking them out of position to get

1020
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 3: the quarterback they're trying to get. That's what happens when

1021
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 3: you're the quarterback and you win the games, you literally

1022
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,280
Speaker 3: win your job because they don't have the pick anymore.

1023
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 3: I look, the Saints were way better on the on

1024
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,399
Speaker 3: the game, fifty two percent success rate to thirty seven.

1025
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 3: Like that is a clearly better team for New Orleans.

1026
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:30,799
Speaker 3: And I disagree that this isn't meaningful division loss for

1027
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 3: the Panthers, Like this changed everything. They were Win this

1028
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 3: game and then you can win either Buccaneers game Week seventeen.

1029
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 3: In between didn't matter for either team. Just beat the

1030
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 3: box one in two chances and the Panthers were home free.

1031
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 3: They blew it. You saw the look on Bryce Young's face.

1032
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:51,720
Speaker 3: You saw the looks on their coaches, like they can't

1033
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 3: believe that they had this one. Carolina now goes Tampa, Seattle, Tampa.

1034
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:00,760
Speaker 3: They gotta sweep the Buccaneers. Now not win one of them.

1035
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 3: The Bucks are immediately back to seventy six percent to

1036
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 3: the playoffs. They go ninety five percent by winning either

1037
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 3: Carolina game. I think it's over. I think this is

1038
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 3: it for Carolina. I think the dream was alive for

1039
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 3: three days. Three days the Panthers had and they couldn't

1040
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 3: even get one win over the Saints. This is an

1041
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 3: absolute failure by them, and they were right there, they

1042
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 3: had this handed to them and they just said, no, thanks,

1043
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:30,919
Speaker 3: you take it back Tampa Bay. So for all the

1044
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:34,760
Speaker 3: disaster of Thursday night, it just all doesn't matter for Tampa.

1045
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 3: But it does matter for Carolina. I think they're absolutely

1046
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 3: cooked at this point.

1047
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair because the Bucks can lose to Carolina

1048
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:41,959
Speaker 2: this coming.

1049
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:43,920
Speaker 1: We could still win the division if they win in

1050
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 1: Week eighteen and the Bucks beat Miami or the Panthers

1051
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 1: lose to Seattle and the Falcons lose one game, So

1052
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: options there. But you're right, the percentages do kind of

1053
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 1: tell the story. All right, Let's keep rolling here one

1054
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 1: more before we get to just the scores. Ravens Bengal.

1055
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: Ravens won the game twenty four to nothing, twenty four

1056
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:06,280
Speaker 1: to nothing, covering minus three on the road, under fifty

1057
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:09,720
Speaker 1: one and a half. I mean, I think the funniest

1058
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:11,319
Speaker 1: way to kind of look at this, because I think

1059
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: the Borough stuff is a little sad, especially the last

1060
00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: two games. He's got four picks, like he looks very dejected. Obviously,

1061
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 1: the Bengals are eliminated. But the story add of Cincinnati

1062
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 1: was that they didn't clear the snow off of the

1063
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 1: seats for the fans for the really the coldest game

1064
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 1: in Bengals home stadium history, and then went out and

1065
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 1: got shut out in a division game, so basically ruining

1066
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 1: any opportunity for the fans that have any type of

1067
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:41,759
Speaker 1: great atmosphere all over the field. It just felt like

1068
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 1: one of the more dejected. Honestly, I'm not a fan

1069
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:48,719
Speaker 1: of Zach Taylor, never have been, but this is this

1070
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 1: is getting a little ridiculous, like something has to give

1071
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 1: for the Bengals in Cincinnati. But the whole story here

1072
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 1: is just a sad bunch. That's the really way I

1073
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 1: looked at it. From t Higgins not playing in the

1074
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 1: game to Chase being frustrated and still ending up with

1075
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 1: like one hundred and thirty yards, it just it was

1076
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 1: a mess all over the place.

1077
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, we've said a lot of terrible

1078
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 3: things about NFC South. I think the AFC North deserves

1079
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 3: pretty much the same credit. For this particular season, the

1080
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,960
Speaker 3: Bengals were terrible offensively. Joe Burrow not good enough, The

1081
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 3: numbers are not good, in this game, I think the

1082
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,960
Speaker 3: Ravens were even that great, but it's how do you

1083
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,760
Speaker 3: be not that great and win a shutout game against

1084
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 3: an offense as talented as Cincinnati's. Even without t Higgins.

1085
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 3: The Ravens only ran forty plays in this game. Now,

1086
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 3: they averaged about eight yards of play, but they barely

1087
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:44,520
Speaker 3: even have the ball, and it was still kind of competitive,

1088
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 3: Like it was still seventeen to nothing early fourth quarter,

1089
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 3: like that's not close, but we've seen teams blow that lead.

1090
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 3: And then Burrow throws another pick six. Pretty cool, Like

1091
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 3: you get the interception and he immediately looked to hand

1092
00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 3: it off to the guy to streak down the sideline,

1093
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 3: so at least got cool play out of it. It's

1094
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 3: a bummer though, that that's the cool play we're looking

1095
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 3: for in Ravens and Bengals. That's the play in a

1096
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,400
Speaker 3: game with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. That's kind of

1097
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:13,759
Speaker 3: the state of where these teams are at. I think

1098
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 3: Ravens basically now are back to fifty to fifty for

1099
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 3: playoffs if Miami wins tomorrow. Otherwise it's thirty five percent

1100
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:24,319
Speaker 3: of Pittsburgh wins. More or less. This is the game

1101
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:27,400
Speaker 3: they needed to get a division game, and it looks

1102
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:30,759
Speaker 3: very likely to me that Steelers Ravens Week eighteen is

1103
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 3: just going to be a playoff game. Just just schedule

1104
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:36,800
Speaker 3: that in for a Saturday or Sunday night. We're getting

1105
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,919
Speaker 3: it as a standalone. One of them gets a home game,

1106
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 3: and we're gonna have to like see who earns it

1107
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 3: on that one. Nothing else matters a whole lot in between.

1108
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 3: I'm done with Zach Taylor. I'm done with the Bengals.

1109
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:50,840
Speaker 3: I don't know how you possibly run this back again,

1110
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 3: but it's the Bengals, so they probably just will. And

1111
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 3: the Bengals play I think the Dolphins next week. Of

1112
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 3: like the two teams that are not definitely out but

1113
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 3: are definitely out in the AFC, it's just gonna be

1114
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 3: so Bengals to go out and have Burrow put up

1115
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,239
Speaker 3: like five touchdowns and be like, Ah, the Bengals, the

1116
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 3: team nobody wants to face down the stretcher in the playoffs. Well,

1117
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,799
Speaker 3: guess what nobody ever has to because they're never in

1118
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 3: the playoffs. I'm so sick of this team.

1119
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, Miami, Arizona and Cleveland, so they won't even be

1120
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 2: ruining dreams because all those teams dreams are kind of

1121
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:23,800
Speaker 2: toasted anyway.

1122
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 1: Are now sixteen and oh straight up in weeks fifteen

1123
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:30,160
Speaker 1: through eighteen, and they play the Patriots next week on

1124
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football. So that's gonna be a fun one,

1125
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:36,239
Speaker 1: all right. Let's roll through some scores. Washington beats the

1126
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 1: Giants twenty nine to twenty one cover plus two and

1127
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 1: a half on the road, total over forty five and

1128
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 1: a half since the beginning of the twenty twenty three season.

1129
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 1: This was the third time the Giants have been listed

1130
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 1: his favorites there now zero and three against the spread

1131
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 1: in those games, just absolutely crappy. And the other thing,

1132
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 1: which will Raiders shut out this week? Bengals shut out

1133
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 1: this week? Well, Commanders were shut out last week and

1134
00:56:57,560 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 1: they did the job. Teams who get shut out pretty

1135
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 1: damn good. Thirty five and seventeen ats in their next game.

1136
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:05,880
Speaker 1: Five and zero this season, So we will see what

1137
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 1: the Raiders and Bengals look like next week. You can't

1138
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 1: wait for that. Also, Jackson dark concussions. I read online

1139
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:17,840
Speaker 1: he's been evaluated for cushion now five times and he only.

1140
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 2: Has two wins and four covers. Can have more concussion

1141
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 2: valuations than wins. That is not how you go.

1142
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: Forward as the franchise quarterback of the Giants, So that

1143
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:29,120
Speaker 1: needs to change, all right.

1144
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 2: Jaguars beat the Jets forty eight to twenty.

1145
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 1: They cover minus thirteen and a half at home total

1146
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 1: over forty and a half. This was the biggest favorite

1147
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville since two thousand and seven with David Gerard

1148
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 1: and Trevor Lawrence played the game of his life. Forty

1149
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 1: eight points, five touchdown passes, no picks, three hundred and

1150
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: thirty yards. You'll let Jacksonville in rushing and he literally

1151
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 1: did it all and the more impressive stats of the

1152
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 1: season continuing to this one where Jacksonville hasn't allowed a

1153
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 1: running back to go for seven five plus yards all season. Now,

1154
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 1: the Jets did rush a lot, but it was a

1155
00:58:04,200 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 1: lot of different players, not one player. All right, let's

1156
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 1: keep going here. Houston beats the Cardinals forty to twenty

1157
00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:13,520
Speaker 1: is ten and a half point favorites at home total

1158
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:14,439
Speaker 1: over forty two.

1159
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 2: And a half.

1160
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: This was also Stroud's biggest game as a favorite. He

1161
00:58:18,120 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 1: threw three touchdowns. He was twenty two to twenty nine,

1162
00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 1: looked really, really good. Houston has now won six straight,

1163
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 1: covered four straight, and they're home against the Raiders next week.

1164
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 1: That looks like a fourteen and a half fifteen point

1165
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:33,440
Speaker 1: spread with a total of thirty seven and a half.

1166
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 1: God have mercy on the raiders soul. Jacoby Brissett one

1167
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,880
Speaker 1: in five first fats, last six starts. Arizona just starting

1168
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 1: way too slow to get these games. Chicago beats the

1169
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 1: Browns thirty one to three as a seven and a

1170
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 1: half point home favorite, total under thirty eight and a half.

1171
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:56,920
Speaker 1: This is the game Chicago always loses, and they didn't

1172
00:58:56,960 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 1: lose it, and that is extremely important to acknowledge, especially

1173
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 1: to the fact they lost Romadunze like six minutes before

1174
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 1: lock and kickoff, which caught everybody off guard and scrambling,

1175
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 1: which was definitely a story right before the games. And

1176
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 1: to me, this is the most important. This is the

1177
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 1: game they always lose, because since twenty nineteen, Chicago was

1178
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 1: one eight to one ats in their last ten after

1179
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 1: facing the Packers. They never win this game, and here

1180
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: they are and they won it, which is really really important.

1181
00:59:26,080 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett now one sack away from tying the single

1182
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:32,479
Speaker 1: season record, which he could do against Josh Allen next week,

1183
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 1: which is just all fun, all right. Philly beats the

1184
00:59:36,160 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 1: Raiders thirty one to nothing. They cover minds twelve and

1185
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:42,440
Speaker 1: a half at home, total goes under thirty seven. The

1186
00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 1: Raiders there shout out for the second time this season,

1187
00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:47,720
Speaker 1: the first team to do that since the two thousand Browns.

1188
00:59:48,160 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 1: The Raiders have lost eight straight and they're at the

1189
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:55,120
Speaker 1: Texans next week. Absolutely perfect. This was the Eagles get

1190
00:59:55,160 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 1: right game, which is most times people play the Raiders

1191
00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 1: this season. Hurts now thirty one and five straight up

1192
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 1: as a home favorite, and finally San Francisco wins thirty

1193
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 1: seven to twenty four, barely covering the twelve and a

1194
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 1: half point spread total over forty four and a half.

1195
01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 1: Gamblers love themselves. Kyle Shanahan, who runs the cover play

1196
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:21,240
Speaker 1: up ten after blowing a pretty big lead to win

1197
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:24,560
Speaker 1: by thirteen and cover by a half point. With the

1198
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 1: lost Tennessee has now lost eleven consecutive games, both straight

1199
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 1: up and against the spread. After a straight up win,

1200
01:00:31,320 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 1: just can't string those things together. And honestly, San Francisco

1201
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: maybe the quietest and four I've ever seen, thirty six

1202
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 1: point four percent strength of victory only Chicago with a

1203
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 1: lower number in the top nine teams in the NFC.

1204
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:48,200
Speaker 1: I was dead wrong about the forty nine ers, and

1205
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:50,360
Speaker 1: I will look to fade them as we go forward.

1206
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 2: God rest my soul as well.

1207
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:55,720
Speaker 1: San Francisco on Monday Night Football facing Rivers next week.

1208
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 2: That is going to be a fun one, all right.

1209
01:00:57,760 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 1: Now, before we get to Monday Night Football, if you'd

1210
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:03,000
Speaker 1: like to tell some of these bets we are about

1211
01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 1: to discuss, find the clicks up link in the podcast

1212
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:08,919
Speaker 1: in video description, or visit actionework dot com slash bet now.

1213
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:10,960
Speaker 1: You can also look in the live YouTube chat if

1214
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 1: you're still hanging out with us, or even better, sign

1215
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 1: up for Action Pro. Action Pro usuals get real time

1216
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 1: alerts as soon as experts like Stuckey, Brandon Anderson, Chris

1217
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 1: Raybon track picks.

1218
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 2: In the app.

1219
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:23,919
Speaker 1: You'll also get real time money percentages to see where

1220
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 1: the smart money is flowing, and access to our NFL

1221
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 1: player prop projections powered by Sean Kerner.

1222
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 2: And I'll add one thing.

1223
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 1: The coolest thing about the prop tool it's out live

1224
01:01:32,680 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 1: props as well, So if you're sweating during games and

1225
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 1: want some action, all that stuff updates really really cool stuff.

1226
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 1: Just go to Action Howork dot com slash pro to

1227
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,480
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1228
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:47,720
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1229
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:52,439
Speaker 1: twenty twenty dollars off Action hour dot Com slash Pro.

1230
01:01:52,720 --> 01:02:04,680
Speaker 1: All right, Monday Night football, Dolphins Steelers.

1231
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I took the under on the hot red.

1232
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 3: It was forty four and a half. We're down to

1233
01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:12,680
Speaker 3: forty two and a half. I'm probably not investing under

1234
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:15,240
Speaker 3: now if I haven't yet. We got the line move

1235
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:17,800
Speaker 3: right on that one and got a lot of injuries

1236
01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 3: for the Steelers. TJ. Watt is out, kind of a

1237
01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 3: messy situation, but like their entire defensive front is in question,

1238
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:28,440
Speaker 3: their whole defensive line is questionable and uncertain for this game.

1239
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 3: I think that's the story here because Miami has been

1240
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,480
Speaker 3: running the snot out of the football lately. Like this

1241
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:37,520
Speaker 3: is such a fun nerd run game to watch ivon

1242
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:40,280
Speaker 3: Achan and everything else happening. They are one of the

1243
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 3: run heaviest teams in the league. Now, this is not

1244
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:45,720
Speaker 3: the Mike McDaniel Dolphins that you remember. And Pittsburgh is

1245
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 3: bottom five EPA per play against the run, especially bad

1246
01:02:49,040 --> 01:02:52,160
Speaker 3: outside runs where Miami's really good. So I think this

1247
01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 3: is a big eighth Chan game. He had some injuries

1248
01:02:55,640 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 3: in the during the week, but looks good now. Miami

1249
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:04,200
Speaker 3: not great of blitzing, but Pittsburgh's blitz is kind of

1250
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 3: compromised here, and I think, man, I'm just gonna run

1251
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 3: at the blitz and run past them. A Chan ended

1252
01:03:09,800 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 3: up leaving last game injured, but his last three healthy games,

1253
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:15,760
Speaker 3: here's the line. Twenty two for one hundred and seventy four,

1254
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 3: twenty one for one to twenty twenty two for one

1255
01:03:19,080 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty four. That's big carries. That is lead

1256
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 3: belcow back in big production. You score a touchdown nine

1257
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 3: of thirteen games this season. I'm gonna take some eight

1258
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 3: Chan yardage here. I think he's gonna have a big game.

1259
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 3: Steelers run defense is missing those dudes up front. They've

1260
01:03:35,080 --> 01:03:37,920
Speaker 3: allowed ninety yards to a running back one for the

1261
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 3: last five games. So I'm gonna play the ninety plus

1262
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 3: one forty five. I'm starting to write at the alt

1263
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 3: and then I'm gonna go one twenty. Remember he's done

1264
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:48,360
Speaker 3: that his last three healthy games. That's at plus five

1265
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 3: to twenty five at DraftKings and in case we get

1266
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 3: another huge game from him, one hundred and fifty yards

1267
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 3: for Chan eighteen to one at the top of the escalator.

1268
01:03:56,600 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 3: And then you know how I love my long shot

1269
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 3: tight ends. This is a tight ends game. Both defenses

1270
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:05,800
Speaker 3: bottom five tight ends in points allowed to fantasy. So

1271
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 3: who is it, Well, it's not dere Noel Washington. He's hurt.

1272
01:04:08,920 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 3: He's kind of become the guy for Pittsburgh is at

1273
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:14,680
Speaker 3: John new Smith. It's a revenge game for him. He's

1274
01:04:14,720 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 3: not really playing a lot. Guess what, it's none of

1275
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 3: those guys. Give me Greg Dulcicic over seventeen and a

1276
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 3: half receiving yards. So Miami basically adds him midseason. Since

1277
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 3: Week nine, he's playing about half of the snaps. He's

1278
01:04:29,120 --> 01:04:32,160
Speaker 3: at eighteen yards or more every game in that stretch.

1279
01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:34,840
Speaker 3: That's all we need. Eighteen will get us home. He's

1280
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:38,080
Speaker 3: averaging thirty one yards a game and he has gone

1281
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 3: forty yards are higher in two of those five games.

1282
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:44,400
Speaker 3: So forty yards at four to one as a little

1283
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:46,640
Speaker 3: bit of an escalator as well, and let's see if

1284
01:04:46,640 --> 01:04:48,160
Speaker 3: we can figure out I don't even know what jersey

1285
01:04:48,240 --> 01:04:51,160
Speaker 3: number he is I'll tell you this. When I looked

1286
01:04:51,200 --> 01:04:54,240
Speaker 3: up Greg Dulciic to research this one, just go look

1287
01:04:54,280 --> 01:04:56,880
Speaker 3: at this picture. Nobody's ever looked more like a tight

1288
01:04:57,000 --> 01:05:00,520
Speaker 3: end than Greg Dulcaic. So let's get another tight Ends

1289
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:02,520
Speaker 3: day on a Monday and celebrate and get our guys

1290
01:05:02,560 --> 01:05:03,160
Speaker 3: some yards.

1291
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 1: If you want to try to find Greg Dolcich on

1292
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:08,240
Speaker 1: the field, just a guy that doesn't look like Darren Waller,

1293
01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:10,240
Speaker 1: they look very different. You should be able to tell

1294
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 1: them apart very easily. I like those angles.

1295
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:15,200
Speaker 2: I like it.

1296
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:18,520
Speaker 1: I was honestly too scared to take Miami, so if

1297
01:05:18,560 --> 01:05:21,080
Speaker 1: I would have bet the side in this game, it

1298
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:24,280
Speaker 1: would have been Miami plus three. Dating back to nineteen

1299
01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 1: ninety two, the Steelers are twenty two and one straight

1300
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 1: up at home on Monday night football, absolutely dominating the spot.

1301
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 1: And the funny one the one they lost twenty twenty

1302
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 1: against the Commanders, so they're twenty two and oho straight

1303
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 1: up at home with fans. So that's the one that's

1304
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:40,840
Speaker 1: the fun angle. I like the other one, which kind

1305
01:05:40,840 --> 01:05:43,840
Speaker 1: of goes into my bed here. The weather nineteen degrees

1306
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:47,200
Speaker 1: win shouldn't be an issue, but that doesn't bode well

1307
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 1: for Miami. They've lost twelve straight games outright in under

1308
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 1: forty degree temperatures. Two has been terrible. Under forty degrees.

1309
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:57,080
Speaker 1: He's zero to five one in four ats. He's been

1310
01:05:57,120 --> 01:05:59,800
Speaker 1: losing those games by nineteen point two points per game.

1311
01:06:00,120 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 2: In my opinion, throw that crap out the window.

1312
01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:05,760
Speaker 1: You know, could they lose maybe, But I think the

1313
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:08,960
Speaker 1: handicap is better here. I would take Miami if I

1314
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 1: had to pick, I really wanted to take either Ali Gordon.

1315
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 1: Mostly I was gonna take Ali Gordon, but I'm worried

1316
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:19,320
Speaker 1: about Jalen Wright. Like I feel like one of those

1317
01:06:19,320 --> 01:06:21,840
Speaker 1: guys is going to score a touchdown. Right sitting at

1318
01:06:21,920 --> 01:06:24,520
Speaker 1: nine to one range, Gordon sitting at like seven to

1319
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 1: one range. Just bet them both. I think they're fine

1320
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:30,240
Speaker 1: the bet I will take. I like Theelin to score

1321
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:33,480
Speaker 1: a touchdown. He's getting more work with Rogers. He's like

1322
01:06:33,600 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 1: eight to one range. So to me, this is a

1323
01:06:35,800 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 1: bit of a long shot game, Like I don't have

1324
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:40,400
Speaker 1: a lot of angles I love.

1325
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 2: So I'll go with theeling.

1326
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 1: But Right and Gordon are a little intriguing to me

1327
01:06:44,560 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 1: because I kind of like Miami. But I think we're

1328
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: on the same page. You liked a Chen, you like Dulcic.

1329
01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 1: I'm finding Miami angles, so even if Pittsburgh's trailing, I'm

1330
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:54,320
Speaker 1: down with theling.

1331
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would lean Dolphins plus three or longer if

1332
01:06:58,040 --> 01:07:00,560
Speaker 3: it ends up getting back there. The other stat to add,

1333
01:07:01,160 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 3: we mentioned this, I think in the last one after

1334
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:06,880
Speaker 3: beating the Ravens, Mike tomlins six and twelve ats. So

1335
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:10,840
Speaker 3: after the Ravens game, if they lose to the Ravens,

1336
01:07:10,880 --> 01:07:12,920
Speaker 3: you want about the Steelers. If they beat the Ravens,

1337
01:07:12,960 --> 01:07:15,440
Speaker 3: you want to bade the Steelers. So I agree. I

1338
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:18,000
Speaker 3: think the cold weather thing is a lot about who

1339
01:07:18,000 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 3: they've played in those games. And look, Aaron Rodgers doesn't

1340
01:07:21,120 --> 01:07:23,600
Speaker 3: want to be cold or get hit by guys anymore

1341
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:26,120
Speaker 3: than anyone else does in this game. So I think

1342
01:07:26,120 --> 01:07:30,040
Speaker 3: Miami's run game, the Nerd run game, is actually built

1343
01:07:30,040 --> 01:07:31,880
Speaker 3: for the cold and may be ready to go do

1344
01:07:31,960 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 3: some damage in this one. So I definitely don't hate

1345
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:37,360
Speaker 3: a Miami plus three. I'd support a Miami money lane

1346
01:07:37,400 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 3: pick as well.

1347
01:07:38,560 --> 01:07:40,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, take the ball added to his hands, let him

1348
01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:42,560
Speaker 1: do what needs to be done to win the game.

1349
01:07:42,600 --> 01:07:44,800
Speaker 1: And that's why I like the running back touchdowns. Again,

1350
01:07:45,000 --> 01:07:46,360
Speaker 1: if you want to tell some of these Monday night

1351
01:07:46,400 --> 01:07:48,160
Speaker 1: football bets. Make sure to look for the quicks up

1352
01:07:48,240 --> 01:07:51,600
Speaker 1: link in the podcast and video description, or go to

1353
01:07:51,600 --> 01:07:55,520
Speaker 1: actionework dot com slash bet now ALBA, Hot read Me,

1354
01:07:55,800 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 1: Hot Wrap Boy, His Rights ho Real Train.

1355
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:09,960
Speaker 3: All right, we're going for two totals, same line, same number,

1356
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:12,600
Speaker 3: but one under and one over. So let's start Saturday

1357
01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 3: Eagles at the Commanders under forty five and a half.

1358
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:18,840
Speaker 3: Eagles unders, I think are the new Texans unders. Just

1359
01:08:18,920 --> 01:08:21,799
Speaker 3: keep betting Eagles unders. I don't know why you wouldn't.

1360
01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:24,799
Speaker 3: Since the bye week. Here are the totals for Eagles games.

1361
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 3: This is total points both teams seventeen, twenty five, woh,

1362
01:08:30,000 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 3: forty five, thirty nine, forty one, and thirty one. Today,

1363
01:08:33,920 --> 01:08:36,439
Speaker 3: every one of those games is under this number. What

1364
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 3: else do you need to know? The Eagles are averaging

1365
01:08:38,560 --> 01:08:42,200
Speaker 3: under nineteen points a game in that stretch, totals thirty

1366
01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:45,320
Speaker 3: three points per game. We got forty five and a half. Here,

1367
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:47,280
Speaker 3: Eagles are nine to five to the under. In the season.

1368
01:08:47,680 --> 01:08:50,800
Speaker 3: We didn't say much about that game because the Raiders

1369
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:53,599
Speaker 3: didn't show up on offense at all. The Raiders ran

1370
01:08:54,160 --> 01:08:58,639
Speaker 3: forty two plays for seventy five yards. That's it. Seventy

1371
01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:01,040
Speaker 3: five yards is what the Eagles defense held them today

1372
01:09:01,120 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 3: under two yards of play first percent TEL success rate. Look,

1373
01:09:05,200 --> 01:09:07,640
Speaker 3: the Raiders are terrible. The Commanders aren't that bad, but

1374
01:09:07,680 --> 01:09:09,880
Speaker 3: they're not that good either. They were on like a

1375
01:09:09,920 --> 01:09:14,120
Speaker 3: bajillion game losing streak and TEL beating the bajillionaire losing

1376
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:17,439
Speaker 3: streak Giants today. Their offense is not great, their defense

1377
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:20,519
Speaker 3: is not great. I do think in a weird way,

1378
01:09:21,040 --> 01:09:23,960
Speaker 3: Washington does a pretty good special teams advantage that might

1379
01:09:24,040 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 3: help a little bit on an under here, because I

1380
01:09:26,320 --> 01:09:29,760
Speaker 3: think it buries the Eagles offense back down the field

1381
01:09:29,800 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 3: a little bit with the special teams play there. So

1382
01:09:32,240 --> 01:09:35,720
Speaker 3: I don't mind that Mariota scored forty one in his

1383
01:09:35,760 --> 01:09:39,000
Speaker 3: first start against the Raiders, twenty two points a game

1384
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:41,640
Speaker 3: since then, so not too afraid of him. And a

1385
01:09:41,680 --> 01:09:44,280
Speaker 3: couple of those late season division trends from week fourteen

1386
01:09:44,360 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 3: forward in outdoor conditions fifty eight percent of the under,

1387
01:09:48,280 --> 01:09:50,360
Speaker 3: and then a total from forty three to forty seven.

1388
01:09:50,439 --> 01:09:52,439
Speaker 3: This one right in the middle, fifty six percent of

1389
01:09:52,520 --> 01:09:55,719
Speaker 3: the under already slipping. A lot of books have forty

1390
01:09:55,760 --> 01:09:57,640
Speaker 3: four and a half. There's one forty five and a

1391
01:09:57,640 --> 01:10:00,240
Speaker 3: half out there, forty four on down, that's when we

1392
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:02,599
Speaker 3: really hit a key number range. So I'm gonna grab

1393
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:05,240
Speaker 3: the under on Saturday. If we got to watch it,

1394
01:10:05,479 --> 01:10:07,599
Speaker 3: we may as well watch nothing and make some money

1395
01:10:07,600 --> 01:10:10,280
Speaker 3: off of it. That's just keep betting Eagles unders until

1396
01:10:10,280 --> 01:10:11,320
Speaker 3: they give us a reason not to.

1397
01:10:12,240 --> 01:10:14,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the five o'clock game too, so you you know,

1398
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:16,880
Speaker 1: you can do whatever you want to do. Don't watch

1399
01:10:17,200 --> 01:10:20,400
Speaker 1: watch late. You come into the game. It's twenty seventeen

1400
01:10:20,520 --> 01:10:23,280
Speaker 1: and SI, you know, cash your bets. What else you got?

1401
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, the other one, this one doesn't matter unless you

1402
01:10:26,400 --> 01:10:28,439
Speaker 3: want to make some money off of it. Both teams

1403
01:10:28,520 --> 01:10:30,479
Speaker 3: I think eliminated. I'm not sure if the Falcons are

1404
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:33,920
Speaker 3: completely eliminated in the NFC set, but give me Falcons

1405
01:10:34,000 --> 01:10:37,280
Speaker 3: Cardinals over forty five and a half are We're over.

1406
01:10:37,439 --> 01:10:39,679
Speaker 3: I don't take a lot of overs. I do over

1407
01:10:39,800 --> 01:10:43,240
Speaker 3: props under his totals. I just think this number is outdated.

1408
01:10:43,280 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 3: I think it's based on the season long teams. But

1409
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:48,200
Speaker 3: both of these teams are a lot different now, especially

1410
01:10:48,600 --> 01:10:51,920
Speaker 3: the Cardinals. They're playing fastest paced in the league with

1411
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:55,640
Speaker 3: Jacobe Brissette with the highest password over expected, so we

1412
01:10:55,680 --> 01:10:59,679
Speaker 3: are getting points points points. Brisset on the season seven

1413
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:02,719
Speaker 3: and two to the over most profitable quarterback in the NFL.

1414
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:06,360
Speaker 3: Seven of his nine starts have seen fifty points or

1415
01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 3: more average total fifty five points a game, almost double

1416
01:11:10,280 --> 01:11:13,320
Speaker 3: digits above the line that we are seeing here. I

1417
01:11:13,360 --> 01:11:17,639
Speaker 3: think both defenses Atlanta and Arizona have seen better days.

1418
01:11:17,680 --> 01:11:20,599
Speaker 3: They were kind of surprise good units earlier in the season.

1419
01:11:20,920 --> 01:11:24,479
Speaker 3: They're fading back to average and below. Atlanta's pass defense

1420
01:11:24,520 --> 01:11:29,080
Speaker 3: in particular, has fallen. That's not great against Brissette. Michael Wilson,

1421
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:32,439
Speaker 3: Trey McBride another monster game today. He should be good again.

1422
01:11:32,920 --> 01:11:36,680
Speaker 3: And then Cardinals defense has just been trash lately. If

1423
01:11:36,680 --> 01:11:39,639
Speaker 3: they're just getting housed by teams, I think Atlanta should

1424
01:11:39,680 --> 01:11:41,960
Speaker 3: have been able to run on them. I just don't

1425
01:11:42,000 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 3: see a lot of stops in this one, and neither

1426
01:11:44,160 --> 01:11:46,280
Speaker 3: team really even cares at this point. So to me,

1427
01:11:46,760 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 3: why not just go out and put on a show

1428
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:51,760
Speaker 3: for the fans and get some points. Gannon homeovers have

1429
01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:54,439
Speaker 3: always been a thing as a head coach, eighteen and

1430
01:11:54,560 --> 01:11:57,960
Speaker 3: six to the over as a home coach seventy five percent.

1431
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:00,840
Speaker 3: This number was forty five this morn mornings. Forty five

1432
01:12:00,880 --> 01:12:03,559
Speaker 3: and a half here, forty six and a half some books,

1433
01:12:03,840 --> 01:12:07,000
Speaker 3: forty seven is the most important key number for totals.

1434
01:12:07,240 --> 01:12:09,639
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna grab the over here and then probably

1435
01:12:09,760 --> 01:12:11,600
Speaker 3: do nothing else with this game and just hope we

1436
01:12:11,680 --> 01:12:13,040
Speaker 3: cash it and move on on Sunday.

1437
01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:15,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, bet this as soon as you can. I see

1438
01:12:15,400 --> 01:12:17,160
Speaker 1: it kind of rising as well. Forty five and a

1439
01:12:17,200 --> 01:12:19,920
Speaker 1: half up to forty six in some places, So get

1440
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:21,840
Speaker 1: in while you can, all right, that'll do it. Here

1441
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:24,679
Speaker 1: on the Action Hour podcast for our NFL Week fifteen

1442
01:12:24,720 --> 01:12:27,960
Speaker 1: recap episode presented by DraftKings, give us a like on

1443
01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:30,559
Speaker 1: the YouTube video before you take off. We really appreciate it.

1444
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:33,000
Speaker 1: If you haven't yet, check out our new AI quick

1445
01:12:33,000 --> 01:12:36,560
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01:12:36,600 --> 01:12:38,960
Speaker 1: grab whatever bets you're looking for and it'll create a

1447
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1448
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:43,720
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1449
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:44,719
Speaker 2: Super simple.

1450
01:12:44,760 --> 01:12:47,760
Speaker 1: We will be back for Action Island before Monday Night's

1451
01:12:47,760 --> 01:12:50,639
Speaker 1: game right here on Action Networks YouTube page, as well

1452
01:12:50,760 --> 01:12:53,840
Speaker 1: as more NFL best bets from Brandon, the six Pack

1453
01:12:53,880 --> 01:12:58,200
Speaker 1: from Raybon and new Father Stucky, Anytime Touchdowns and more.

1454
01:12:58,439 --> 01:13:01,760
Speaker 1: On the podcast feed next week for the holidays and

1455
01:13:02,280 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 1: New Year's and as we get to the playoffs. Thank

1456
01:13:05,080 --> 01:13:08,000
Speaker 1: you for listening, Good luck with all your bets. Three

1457
01:13:08,040 --> 01:13:26,160
Speaker 1: weeks to go. Everybody cherish it well it's here. Action

1458
01:13:26,320 --> 01:13:30,759
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1459
01:13:30,800 --> 01:13:33,759
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

1460
01:13:33,840 --> 01:13:36,400
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler