Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Since Donald Trump won the election, a prominent feeling among
Speaker 2: CEOs is excitement for what it means for the US economy.
Speaker 2: According to a recent survey, two thirds of US business
Speaker 2: executives say they're confident about the economic outlook for the
Speaker 2: year ahead. Several CEOs have been offered plumb Cabinet positions,
Speaker 2: and many of Trump's nominees are expected to back policies
Speaker 2: that are viewed as a win for the business community,
Speaker 2: like cutting back on financial regulations and cutting taxes. But
Speaker 2: it's what these execs don't know that may give them
Speaker 2: some pause. They're hanging on every little hint of what
Speaker 2: the incoming administration might actually do.
Speaker 1: With Trump winning and an all Republican Congress, there's less
Speaker 1: anxiety about the outcome on tax but the bigger concern
Speaker 1: may end up being in our t raid and international
Speaker 1: economic relations.
Speaker 2: That's Josh Bolton. He was White House Chief of Staff
Speaker 2: to George W. Bush, and now he serves as the
Speaker 2: head of a lobbying group called the Business Roundtable, so
Speaker 2: he represents the policy interests of CEOs at leading US companies.
Speaker 2: He regularly talks to people like Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan,
Speaker 2: and those types of conversations give him a window into
Speaker 2: what matters most to these executives. Bloomberg Nancy Cook told
Speaker 2: me advocating for businesses as a block is a bit
Speaker 2: harder in the Trump White House.
Speaker 3: So much of his relationship with people is based on
Speaker 3: his personal relationship, and so his relationship with Tim Cook
Speaker 3: of Apple may be different than his relationship with the
Speaker 3: CEO of Walmart.
Speaker 2: As Trump's second term approaches and his campaign promises turn
Speaker 2: into policies, Bolton and the CEOs he represents are considering
Speaker 2: how they can lobby for what they want from the
Speaker 2: White House and whether the new Trump administration will listen
Speaker 2: Today on the show, how top business leaders in the
Speaker 2: US are preparing for another Trump term. What issues are
Speaker 2: America's business leaders lobbying for, and how could Trump's unique
Speaker 2: approach to negotiating change the way they come to the table.
Speaker 2: From Bloomberg's Washington Bureau, This is the Big Take DC
Speaker 2: podcast from Bloomberg Goose, I'm Saleamosen. The Business Roundtable is
Speaker 2: a lobbying group that represents the interests of more than
Speaker 2: two hundred top American companies from Chipotle, to Delta Airlines
Speaker 2: and Amazon. According to Open Secrets, the group spent over
Speaker 2: fifteen million dollars lobbying in twenty twenty four, making it
Speaker 2: the tenth biggest lobbying group in the country. Generally, groups
Speaker 2: like BRT will spend that money according members of Congress
Speaker 2: and government agencies to back the policies they support, but
Speaker 2: their job is a bit trickier under Trump.
Speaker 3: I think BRT still tries to be a very influential
Speaker 3: player with every White House, but I think Trump likes
Speaker 3: to deal with c on like a one to one basis,
Speaker 3: rather than as much being swayed by groups like you know, BRT,
Speaker 3: or the Chamber of Commerce or any of these individual
Speaker 3: business groups which in the past have been like the
Speaker 3: most powerful lobbyist in Washington.
Speaker 2: Nancy says these groups had a wall during the Biden
Speaker 2: administration too, for a different reason. There weren't many people
Speaker 2: in President Joe Biden's inner circle who business leaders felt
Speaker 2: they could call.
Speaker 3: President Biden really shunned a lot of CEOs and really
Speaker 3: sort of took his sense of what was happening in
Speaker 3: the labor market much more from labor leaders rather than
Speaker 3: Wall Street or CEOs.
Speaker 2: So We're going to see a shift from the Biden
Speaker 2: administration not having deep ties with business to the Trump
Speaker 2: administration where there are more inroads.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's going to be a ton more in roads.
Speaker 3: I mean, as long as all these people get confirmed
Speaker 3: by the Senate, which is a huge If there would
Speaker 3: be Howard lutneka Commerce, you know, he comes from Canter Fitzgerald,
Speaker 3: he's the CEO there and comes from Wall Street. Scott
Speaker 3: Besson at Treasury also, I think, you know, has a
Speaker 3: lot of Wall Street credibility. We're going to see Kevin
Speaker 3: Hassett and the NEEC people know who he is. He's
Speaker 3: been around Washington for a long time, and so I
Speaker 3: think the business community is going to feel like they
Speaker 3: have sort of more people to reach out to.
Speaker 2: Josh Bolton has already had some success in gaining Trump's
Speaker 2: ear for BRT members.
Speaker 1: Earlier this year, President Trump came to the Business round
Speaker 1: Table in June. We invited President Biden as well, but
Speaker 1: he was overseas.
Speaker 2: At the time. Bolton and the other CEOs were eager
Speaker 2: to talk to Trump about his plan to maintain the
Speaker 2: sweeping tax cuts from twenty seventeen, especially the one that
Speaker 2: dropped the corporate tax rate from thirty five to twenty
Speaker 2: one percent. While that rate doesn't technically expire, lawmakers are
Speaker 2: reopening the entire package to negotiation. Since revenue will be
Speaker 2: needed to offset the large cuts Trump is proposing, Bolton
Speaker 2: wants to ensure the cuts that most impact businesses remain
Speaker 2: in place. He told reporters in June that the group
Speaker 2: was prepared to spend eight figures on lobbying in part
Speaker 2: to protect their tax interests. When Trump came to be
Speaker 2: ort's headquarters later that week, he addressed this policy head on.
Speaker 1: When President Trump was asked, will you defend the twenty
Speaker 1: one percent rate, he said no, And there was a
Speaker 1: kind of a gasp from the crowd, and he said,
Speaker 1: I like round numbers, and twenty is a round number,
Speaker 1: not twenty one. He said, maybe even fifteen. So he
Speaker 1: gave a teaser to the crowd at the business roundtable
Speaker 1: that maybe he would seek an even lower corporate rate.
Speaker 2: And that wasn't the first time Trump brought up the
Speaker 2: idea of a fifteen percent rate.
Speaker 3: You have to remember Trump in twenty seventeen actually wanted
Speaker 3: the corporate rate to be fifteen percent. He also wanted
Speaker 3: to call the twenty seventeen tax built, cut, cut cut,
Speaker 3: but was overruled by some advisors. So I think that
Speaker 3: he would love to get it as low as possible.
Speaker 3: But you know, if you lower it to fifteen percent,
Speaker 3: then you can't do some of these other things. Trump
Speaker 3: has promised, no tax on tips, no taxes on overtime.
Speaker 3: There are a bunch of personal income taxes that are
Speaker 3: expiring next year. I think that originally, you know, there
Speaker 3: was a lot of jubilation from the business community. Oh,
Speaker 3: the Republicans, you know, are going to control everything. We'll
Speaker 3: be able to do tax cuts. But the fact of
Speaker 3: the matter is there's a lot of priorities on the
Speaker 3: table now, and at the end of the day, I
Speaker 3: think even Republican lawmakers are not going to want the
Speaker 3: tax bill to, you know, be so expensive that it
Speaker 3: blows a huge pole in the tofesite, so they will
Speaker 3: have to prioritize.
Speaker 2: Bolton told me he recognizes the need to get the
Speaker 2: federal deficit under control, but he believes keeping corporate taxes
Speaker 2: low should remain a priority, and he's optimistic about the
Speaker 2: president electx general position on that.
Speaker 1: He laid out his whole agenda, but he did it
Speaker 1: in a way that gave it a definite pro business
Speaker 1: tilt on taxes and regulation, two sets of issues that
Speaker 1: our members care a great deal about and did not
Speaker 1: dwell very much on the portions of his agenda that
Speaker 1: have caused our members some concern, that is to trade
Speaker 1: in tariffs, trade and tariffs.
Speaker 2: Trump's proposals in these areas don't have the same widespread
Speaker 2: popularity among business leaders after the break, how Trump's latest
Speaker 2: tariff plans have CEOs preparing. When it comes to taxes,
Speaker 2: the business community is expecting to see some wins from
Speaker 2: a Trump presidency, but Bloomberg's Nancy Cook says the picture
Speaker 2: gets more complicated with tariffs.
Speaker 3: Because no one knows exactly what Trump will do.
Speaker 2: Trump's latest threat is an additional ten percent tariff on
Speaker 2: top of existing tariffs on China.
Speaker 3: So he has talked about putting tariffs anywhere from sixty
Speaker 3: to one hundred percent on China. He has indicated that
Speaker 3: he will go after the European Union much more with tariff.
Speaker 3: I interviewed him in June and for an hour and
Speaker 3: a half I was with him at mar Lago and
Speaker 3: asked him a bunch of questions about these idea of tariffs, like,
Speaker 3: how serious are you? I think that he likes to
Speaker 3: talk about them like a great revenue raiser, a great
Speaker 3: way to raise money for the federal government and potentially
Speaker 3: even replace some of the income tax. But I do
Speaker 3: think some of the people around him, like the potential
Speaker 3: incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, feel like the tariffs are
Speaker 3: a little bit more of a negotiating tool rather than
Speaker 3: something that he is definitively going to put on. And
Speaker 3: so what I will be watching for is how both
Speaker 3: business groups like BRT but also just world leaders start
Speaker 3: lobbying Trump to try to dial back these tariffs, or
Speaker 3: at least the threats of them.
Speaker 2: I asked Josh Bolton how BRT is thinking about this.
Speaker 1: I think everybody has to take what the president says
Speaker 1: quite seriously. I mean, we know from experience in his
Speaker 1: first term sometimes it's bluster to create a good negotiating position,
Speaker 1: but often he really means it and he has a
Speaker 1: tendency to follow through. With respect to the recent threats
Speaker 1: that President Trump has put out about tariffs, the ones
Speaker 1: on Canada and Mexico, to me, those feel like negotiating positions.
Speaker 1: President Trump has a laudable goal of trying to tighten
Speaker 1: up the border, both with respect to drugs and those
Speaker 1: who are trying to come across illegally. The question is
Speaker 1: what's the best way to go about that. The threat
Speaker 1: of tariffs may help bring Canada and Mexico to the table.
Speaker 1: Our hope would be that the President is able to
Speaker 1: bring them to the table and get satisfactory resolution on
Speaker 1: those issues without having to resort to tariffs, which are
Speaker 1: very damaging to the US economy.
Speaker 2: The impact of these tariffs will hit different businesses and
Speaker 2: sectors differently. Those that rely heavily on importing raw materials
Speaker 2: could see much higher production costs.
Speaker 1: Companies like that will have been planning for many months
Speaker 1: considering a diversification of their supply chains, but a lot
Speaker 1: of the impact of this would likely be unavoidable if,
Speaker 1: in fact, large tariffs are imposed on a large number
Speaker 1: of goods coming into the United States.
Speaker 2: Trump has always paid close attention to what business leaders
Speaker 2: and markets think of his policies and his presidency, so
Speaker 2: I asked Nancy, if these groups are so worried about tariffs,
Speaker 2: is there anything that business community could do to sway him.
Speaker 3: They're likely to have less influence there than they do
Speaker 3: on taxes. Trump loves tariffs, you know, He's called tariff
Speaker 3: like the most beautiful word. I feel like he actually
Speaker 3: does believe in them, and so I think companies will
Speaker 3: certainly be able to lobby him and create direct appeals
Speaker 3: to him, but I feel like they're going to have
Speaker 3: a tougher time moving him off of the idea of
Speaker 3: tariffs broadly than taxes.
Speaker 2: The thing is to get through to Trump, the business
Speaker 2: community will need to do more than just traditional lobbying.
Speaker 3: Having seen Trump's presidency the first time, I think a
Speaker 3: lot of these CEOs know now that rather than sort
Speaker 3: of coming in at the last minute and making donations
Speaker 3: or having an army of lobbyists, lobbying Trump really works
Speaker 3: best if the CEO reaches out directly to Trump.
Speaker 2: And that approach to lobbying raises a question. If Trump
Speaker 2: does follow through with his proposals, will he do so
Speaker 2: uniformly across the board or will he try to get
Speaker 2: something in return from individual CEOs.
Speaker 3: What would be so interesting to watch is what individual
Speaker 3: meetings with him and different CEOs does to the tariffs.
Speaker 3: So when I was down at mar Lago interviewing him,
Speaker 3: in June. He told a story about Tim Cook, the
Speaker 3: CEO of Apple, and Trump was threatening some sort of
Speaker 3: tariffs or something that would have impacted some part of
Speaker 3: their supply chain, and Tim Cook called Trump directly. He
Speaker 3: came to the White House and met with Trump, you know,
Speaker 3: for a good amount of time. Trump, I think felt
Speaker 3: excited about that. I mean so excited that he told
Speaker 3: me this few years later in Florida, and I think
Speaker 3: Trump felt very wooed by Tim Cook, and so he
Speaker 3: backed off whatever sort of tariffs was going to affect Apple.
Speaker 3: And so I think there's a lot of lessons in
Speaker 3: there for how CEOs are going to try to deal
Speaker 3: with Trump. It's going to be one on one. It's
Speaker 3: going to be a personal outreach. It's going to become
Speaker 3: wherever Trump is, be it mar A Lago or the
Speaker 3: White House, and I think that that's where a lot
Speaker 3: of these people will try to cut deals.
Speaker 2: With Trump's inauguration just over a month away, one thing
Speaker 2: is certain, the global lobbying effort has already begun.
Speaker 3: We already saw the Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau head down
Speaker 3: to mar A Lago for dinner, which was really sort
Speaker 3: of lobbying about the tariffs. Trump is going to France
Speaker 3: this weekend to view the new Notre Dame Cathedral, which
Speaker 3: was renovated. I assume tariffs will come up on that
Speaker 3: trip as well.
Speaker 2: It's not just world leaders concerned about the impact of
Speaker 2: new tariffs. CEOs, like many economists, are worried about how
Speaker 2: quickly the US can ramp up its own manufacturing and
Speaker 2: the impact on American can.
Speaker 1: It's unlikely will ever be in a situation where everything
Speaker 1: can be in the United States. We can't turn back
Speaker 1: the clock one hundred years to when countries operate. It's
Speaker 1: very much as a closed environment. We're in a very integrated,
Speaker 1: globally competitive environment, and if the United States attempts to
Speaker 1: put up walls to the free flow of commerce into
Speaker 1: and out of this economy, we will find ourselves falling
Speaker 1: way behind our international competitors.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to The Big Take DC podcast from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. I'm Salia Moosen. This episode was produced by
Speaker 2: Julia Press. It was mixed by Alex Sugia and fact
Speaker 2: checked by Audreyanatapia. It was edited by Aaron Edwards, Wendy Benjaminson,
Speaker 2: and Senior producer Naomi Shaven. Wendy and Elizabeth Ponso provide
Speaker 2: editorial direction. Nicole Beemsterborer is our executive producer. Stage Bauman
Speaker 2: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please follow and review The
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