WEBVTT - 4/22/25: Worst April Since Great Depression, China Warns World On US, Hegseth Meltdown, Fired Antiwar Official Speaks Out 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:01.599 Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here. 0:00:01.680 --> 0:00:05.200 Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:07.840 and we are so excited about what that means for 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:08.720 the future of the show. 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:10.719 This is the only place where you can find honest 0:00:10.760 --> 0:00:13.280 perspectives from the left and the right that simply does 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:14.680 not exist anywhere else. 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:17.080 So if that is something that's important to you, please 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.599 go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.880 you'll access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.600 all put together for you every morning in your inbox. 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:27.560 We need your help to build the future of independent 0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:29.920 news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:33.360 dot com. 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.680 Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:39.120 for everybody today. Do we live for the pound or no? 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:42.159 All right, we live people live for the pound. There 0:00:42.240 --> 0:00:43.320 we go. I still get to say it. 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:44.640 We're fermenting a coup today. 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:48.280 Yeah, we're frementing a coup here at Breaking Points. Emily 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:50.559 is in for Crystal, who will be back tomorrow and 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:53.519 on Thursday, so don't worry about that. But Emily, the 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:55.520 people have cried out for an Emily and Saga show 0:00:55.520 --> 0:00:58.960 for a while. According to our records, it has been 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:01.280 two years since. 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:02.720 The last Embly and Saga show. 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:04.840 What a gift to everyone in the audience. 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:06.920 Yeah, so the it is. It is a great gift 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:08.119 that we do so people. 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:12.520 People can't accuse us here of not of not giving 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.200 in to our audience demands. Right, So the people demanded it, 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:17.280 and the people are getting it by plebiscite. 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:17.920 So there you go. 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:20.000 I think that's last time we did. By the way, 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:21.399 there was a brick wall behind us. 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:22.560 Yes there was. Yeah, that's right. 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:24.760 That was before the new set and everything's. Oh yeah, 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:26.080 look you can see how far we come. 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:26.840 That's all right. 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:28.440 What the hell are we covering today? This is the 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:30.479 toughest part of the job setting all this up. 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:31.720 Tariffs. All right, tariffs. 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:34.520 We're gonna talk about Tariff's the a worst April for 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:38.120 the Dow Jones since the Great Depression. Uh, not exactly 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:40.640 a great headline there for the administration. We're going to 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:42.959 talk about some of the movements in the stock market, 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:47.200 big dumpy yesterday of major stock indusses, as well as 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:50.600 some major movements by China warning other countries not to 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.280 team up with the United States. We're going to continue 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:55.920 the coverage of Pete Hegseeth saga. 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:58.240 There is just insanity going on. 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.560 Pete Hagsath knifing his own own staff in the back 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:03.480 who recently were fired. 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:03.960 From the Pentagon. 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:06.960 We also have one of those former staffers, Stan Caldwell, 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.040 speaking out on the Tucker Carlson Show, really giving us 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.920 some insight into the knife fights that are happening in 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:14.720 the administration over war with Iran. 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:16.160 We're going to talk about Kirsty Nome. 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:20.120 She apparently got her purse stolen despite having been surrounded 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:21.360 by Secret Service agents. 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:23.320 She had three thousand dollars in cash on her. 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.440 Just some very weird stuff that's going on, and obviously 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:28.799 also an insight into one of the top law enforcement 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:31.480 officers in the United States. This is a topic I 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:34.560 selected specifically because Emily is here with me. We're going 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:38.959 to talk about the Trump administration's efforts to boost birth 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:43.400 rates here in the United States, focused specifically on motherhood 0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:47.120 tax breaks for new moms, medals for mothers that have 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:49.520 more than several children. So we're going to break some 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:51.320 of that down. We're going to talk about that fight 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:54.440 with Harvard between the Trump administration and Harvard, a major 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:58.520 escalating legal battle between the two it stems from that 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.919 quote anti semitism fight, but it's actually become much bigger 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:03.880 than that. And then we're very excited to be joined 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.440 by Fire, the president of Fire, who is going to 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:11.120 break down some of the free speech attacks from by. 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:12.239 The Trump administration. 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:16.880 Fire Emily probably the single best organization that's been consistent 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:20.040 and principled on these matters over the years. Really, we 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.320 always look to them for guidance. They've spoken up on 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:26.000 very unpopular issues, popular issues they don't care literally at Also, 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:27.480 we're excited to speak with them. 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:29.919 And then also, I guess people are also getting their wish. 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:34.120 Here in AMA with Emily and I for our premium subscribers, 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:36.800 So don't forget. You can support us at Breakingpoints dot com. 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.720 You can participate in these live amas and more, and 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.640 also see Emily every Friday on the Emily Show or 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:43.320 on the Friday Show. 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:45.480 Sorry, I guess we could call it. We should should 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:45.680 we call? 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:46.520 Yeah? 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:47.320 Yeah? 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:47.760 I like it. 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:49.560 I like it all right, don't forget. 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.680 If you can't support us right now and all of 0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:55.480 the new expansions that we're doing here, it's totally fine. 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:57.800 Just make sure that you like and subscribe to this 0:03:57.880 --> 0:03:59.960 video and if you're listening to us on a podcast, 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:02.400 just go ahead, give us a five star review and 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.120 send the episode to a friend. That is the single 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:06.640 best thing that you can do for us. You can 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.400 even pick your favorite episode, Emily. You know what's fascinating 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:13.120 in our podcast downloads is that there are hundreds of 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.040 thousands of people who listen to these like at the end. 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:18.559 Of the week, like like they don't listen to them daily. 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:22.400 There we have a huge spike and Fridays and Saturdays. 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:24.320 I don't get I'll be honest, I don't get it, 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:25.680 but I guess it kind of makes sense. 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:27.240 It's like cats up on the news. 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:29.000 In any particular episode. 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:31.600 Like yeah, like a Monday episode will boom on like 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:32.040 a Friday. 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:34.200 I'm like, I just I don't get it. 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:37.159 YouTube is much more like regular, you know, like after 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:38.840 forty eight hours or so, like most of the people 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:40.760 have watched something, are gonna watch it. There are a 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:44.200 few evergreen topics, but yeah, these podcast listeners, man, I've 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:45.240 been trying to understand these. 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.800 People for four years. I'll never get it. But it's okay, 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:49.960 that's very interesting. Yeah, we love you anyway. 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:51.200 So if you're listening to this. 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:52.279 Four days from now. 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:54.800 If you're listening to this four or five days from now, 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:56.440 go ahead and follow your instructions. 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.880 All right, let's get to the tariff. So massive sell 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:00.320 off in. 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:04.200 The stock market yesterday, not one particular thing that seems 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:06.840 to have set things off, but just still real signs 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:10.440 of danger. Here's CNBC right around the close. Let's take 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:10.880 a listen. 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:12.039 Look at the markets. 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:14.120 Which are very unwelcome on this Monday afternoon. The Dow 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:16.919 is down twelve hundred and seventy points right now, so 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.599 we're at session lows and if we close here, it 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:22.520 will be the eleventh thousand point drop in the Dow's history, 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:25.200 and it's the fourth this month. Now, the SMP broad market, 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:27.599 here's what you need to know, down three percent and 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.680 down sixteen percent from the fifty two week high. We're 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:34.320 about two hundred points above the intry day low of forty. 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:35.520 Nine ten on April eighth. 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:37.960 Keep these in mind as people look for a retest, 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.440 and is that an entry point. The Nasdaq is the 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:42.440 worst of the major averages, led lower. 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:43.440 By Nvidia and Tesla. 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:46.719 Tesla down seven percent ahead of its earnings tomorrow, and 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.120 of course, check the yield on the tenure because unlike 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.120 many most previous stock sell offs, where you at least 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.280 get some cushion here, Nope, not getting it today four forty. 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.679 This time, treasuries are being sold as investors sell stocks 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:01.120 as well, Dollars down, yields are higher. 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:03.880 Yeah, and actually the yield is spiked even more since then. 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:05.160 We're going to get to that in a little bit. 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:06.960 But let's go ahead and put this up there on 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.560 the screen that Dow is currently headed for the worst 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:13.279 April since nineteen thirty two as investors are sending no 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:17.640 confidence signals. Quote few think the administration's negotiation with trade 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:20.679 partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain. 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:23.640 And Emily, that really seems to be a big thing 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:27.280 that was donned on the market yesterday and a lot 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.360 of these investors is the fact that the Japanese talks 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:32.919 went so badly and that the Japanese Prime minister and 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:37.040 their team left Washington with no deal. And then, honestly, 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:40.039 the worst signal was not just them leaving, it was 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:43.560 the Japanese Prime minister going to Parliament and declaring, we 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:46.880 will not concede to all of the demands of the 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.320 United States. They are actively counter signaling the Trump administration 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:53.720 at home and by the way, too great popularity. Actually, 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.719 the Japanese people not very happy about the way that 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:59.760 they have been treated throughout this process. There's been ongoing 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:02.880 to time there with China and with South Korea something. 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:07.320 You know, Trump historically has made three countries which absolutely 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:09.840 hate each other's guts to at least move in some 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.560 solid direction as a result of the tariffs. And so 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:16.240 I think as this begins to dawn on the investors 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:19.240 and on the market, they're seeing that Japan, which was 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:21.520 supposed to be the check mark, like that was supposed 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:24.240 to be the easiest one to be done, and they're like, holy, 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:27.200 we have seventy more of these trade deals that are 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.160 supposed to happen in ninety days. They're like, this is 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:32.000 just not going to happen, Like this is not reality. 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.040 And then no signal yet from the Trump administration around 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:37.320 any sort of cave. The more that starts to set in, 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.400 I mean, you know, everybody celebrated that stock market bump 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:43.120 after the ninety day pause. We are just a few 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:46.600 maybe two three percent or something like that away from 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.360 being right back to where we started even before the 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:52.400 ninety day pause where they initially wanted the bonds. Obviously 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:54.160 we'll get to in a little bit, but this is 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:55.080 this is not a good sign. 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:57.160 Yeah, I mean, this is maybe the worst sign because 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:02.000 there's a counterfactual here. Trump actually is signing and inking 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:05.120 all of these like really good deals, and that sounds 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:08.320 a little bit ridiculous. But it's possible, right that he 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.600 could be coming away from this with actually some significant 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:15.960 progress in these negotiations with Japan, with places like Vietnam. 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:20.600 It's entirely within the realm of possibility, but it's also 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:24.320 the predicate for his entire strategy. The strategy hinges on 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:27.760 being able to seal these deals, to seal them quickly, 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:31.040 and to get good ones. And again, I think it's, 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:34.199 you know, more likely than not. It's always been more 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:37.520 likely than not that wouldn't happen, but it was always 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:38.079 a possibility. 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:39.720 It was always a possibility. 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:43.360 What's interesting too, is Charles Gasparino over a Fox Business 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:47.160 just said today quote about ten days ago, Scott Besson 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.160 was telling Wall Street executives that he was making progress 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:53.520 cutting trade deals with India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:56.680 some of the largest trading partners quote, then nothing happened 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:59.240 in the market's tank. So there's been a combination of 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:02.320 a couple of facts. It's not only the lack of 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:05.520 trade deals. There's also been Trump's escalating attacks on the 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:08.480 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. And look, I mean, I 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:11.600 don't think Trump is empirically incorrect that we do need 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:14.160 a rate cut, but it's really more about the signal 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:17.400 that he himself would take like some of unitary executive 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:20.679 power over the central Bank, which would mean that there 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:24.520 would be an escalating fight and most importantly uncertainty. So 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:26.880 it's not the fact that investors don't want a rate cut. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.640 They would be absolutely happy to do so, as we've 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:31.920 already seen the European Central Bank is cut rates. There's 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:34.079 been numerous other countries that have done so as well. 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:35.960 The dollar right now, by the way, is a disaster. 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.640 The dollar is down, to believe, almost every currency except 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.480 for the Turkish lira all time highs, or not all 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:45.680 time highs, but near all time highs, with the euro, 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:49.640 the Japanese yen, and a few other currencies which traditionally 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.160 actually were quite down. This is very difficult because even 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.840 without tariffs that means that these foreign goods are going 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:58.200 to be more expensive for United States investors and importers 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:01.040 that are able to afford this. That is not to 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.560 even mention, you know, the other stuff that's happening right 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:05.880 now in the markets. Let's put a two please up 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.319 on the screen, because this really actually underscores a lot 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:10.400 of what I'm talking about here about the dollar weakness. 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:15.360 Quote Trump trade offensive threatens America's financial primacy, and the 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:18.800 rising volatility in the dollar weakness is raising fears for 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:23.560 a financial realignment away from US shores. And so this 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.880 is the big fear right now, the move away from 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:31.679 the United States dollar as a reserve currency. Traditionally, as 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:34.320 they were talking about on CNBC, you see bond deals 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:37.000 start to go down, which obviously has major pressure in 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:39.880 terms of interest rates the Federal reserve, but we don't 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:41.760 see that. And so really what we're seeing is both 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:45.040 a fleeing from US markets and from the US dollar. 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:48.679 And so when you have massive uncertainty on those two things, 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.640 as well as this massive pressure in the bond markets, 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:56.680 you basically have financial uncertainty and pressure at all levels. 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.280 At the consumer level, at the equities level, at the 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:01.559 bond level, and now at a currency level. 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:03.960 In fact, I was just reading today that one of 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:08.600 the largest foreign exchange of traders, like of currencies, has 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:11.520 been margin called and has the heart basically halt like 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:14.839 all trading. And so there's you know, I mean, look, 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:16.040 I'm not shedding. 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.960 Tears here for four X traders. It's like oh boo hoo. 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:22.760 But it's a signal obviously that the uncertainty and the 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:27.920 like basically shocked to the overall dollar is causing fundamental 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:30.880 questions to be asked across the world. And I think 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:34.520 it always just returns to why. It's like, if that's 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:38.120 a result of a war, if it's that's the result 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.480 of you know, outside pressure, if that's a result of 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:44.320 a hyper intentional policy for d dollarization across the world 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:48.960 to make US goods more competitive for genuinely good trade deals, 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:50.720 a lot of people be fine with it, you know. 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:54.480 But the point is that within this vacuum of chaos 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:57.560 where there seems to be no policy agenda, everything is 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.560 basically at the whims of whether Peter Navarro is on 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:02.840 the right building in the White House complex or not. 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:05.560 That's when everybody is just like, yeah, I'm done, you know, 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:08.360 I'm hording cash if you're lucky enough to have some 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.600 taken out debt, or if you're a company, I'm buying 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:15.000 nothing for the next ninety days. And you know the 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.280 freight drop that's coming from China. It just still has 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.960 not set in for people because you're not ready for 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:25.040 like the price increase at Costco. You're not ready to 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.280 go there and to see stuff that you normally would 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:29.360 that's just not on the shelf. It takes a couple 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:31.720 of months to see that happen. I mean, don't forget. 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:35.680 The peak of inflation in the COVID era was twenty 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.679 twenty two. Even though twenty twenty one was marked by 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:41.800 all of those increases, it was really after the invasion 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:45.000 of Russia where we saw massive shock to the financial system, 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.320 massive shock to the energy market, and basically a year 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.920 of unchecked inflation that the government allowed to basically just happen, 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:54.480 where all of those things culminated where people were like, 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:57.760 I am done with Joe Biden, and you know, I'm 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.520 really done with the overall US economy, and they really 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.360 never forgave him for that, and I think that they're 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:03.040 really on track. 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:04.600 You know, you know this as well, as I do. 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:06.760 But a lot of people in the White House right now, specifically, 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:08.760 are looking back to nineteen eighty one and they say, 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.600 Ronald Reagan weathered a temporary recession. The short term pain 0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:16.439 paid off for him. He was able to muster the 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.559 he was able to mobilize voters and have a very 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:24.360 successful return to the presidency. This is very different from 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:26.800 that in a couple of different ways. But just one 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:30.280 important way that you alluded to. It's not about price. 0:13:30.520 --> 0:13:32.720 This is not just about price increases. This is about 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:36.640 the availability of goods. This is about scarcity. This is 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.959 about things changing. This is about the shelves changing, not 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.120 just the prices going up. And I think to your point, 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:45.920 not only has that not stunk in for consumers, I 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.400 don't think that that has sunk in for the administration. 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:53.520 And the uncertainty as leverage was always again, if this 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:56.120 deal were to if this entire strategy were to play 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:58.840 out successfully, that had to be very temporary. Yeah, because 0:13:58.880 --> 0:13:59.840 it was good leverage. 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.240 But let's talk about the nineteen eighty one recession, because 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.000 that's a very important point. But why did Reagan get 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.719 forgiven for the nineteen eighty one recession? Because it was 0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:13.120 a hangover a vulgar monetary policy, and thus people forgave 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.520 Reagan because they didn't think it was his fault. And also, 0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:18.440 Reagan was a really good politician at the height of 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.280 his literally probably at the height of his rhetorical powers 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:23.320 in nineteen eighty one, where he's like, oh, you know, 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:27.320 the happy optimism, the jelly beans and all that, and 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:28.720 he's like, look, you know, He's like, we're going to 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.680 get through this together. He was an excellent communicator, and 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.480 he was actually able to use that recession to eventually 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.040 push a lot of major legislation. Now we can debate 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:38.800 the effects in all of that, but that was a 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.640 hyper competent in my opinion, team, regardless of whether you 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:43.680 think that what they did was good or not. But 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:48.480 most importantly, they were able to blame Carter and Vulgar 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:51.600 for much of what transpired from eighty one and in 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.720 eighty two. The Trump administration does not have that luxury already. 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.640 America is like Biden, who They're like, who is that? 0:14:58.880 --> 0:14:59.560 And what we were talking about? 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:03.160 They're also asking the public to significantly renegotiate its relationship 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:04.040 with consumer goods. 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:07.000 Yes, and not just I would say beyond consumer goods. 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:09.200 I would say, they're asking them to renegotiate like the 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:12.240 very terms of which they understood their economic life, and 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:16.479 like that is again you know, you don't there's America 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:19.240 if we look back, like they're really only going to 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.440 tolerate that in a time of war, like and even 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:24.040 then people are gonna get pissed. 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:25.400 Which is also where Igan was successful. 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:26.800 Yeah, that's true, because it's the cool we had. 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:28.560 The Cold War a very good point and I was 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.120 reading I think there was a during World War Two 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.920 there was like a national speed limit of like thirty 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:35.760 five miles per hour to serve get people. 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:37.320 I hated it. 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:39.560 But they were able to tolerate it because they're like, Okay, 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:41.000 you know, we're in the middle of a war. But 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.480 basically like the moment that I think the Japanese surrendered, 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:46.840 they're like, yeah, we're driving fifty miles an hour now, okay, 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:49.800 like the shit's over, Like where's my goods? I need 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.800 some I need some serious return for four years of 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:56.280 lack of food and of driving super slow, even though 0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:58.520 we didn't even have any highways or anything back in 0:15:58.520 --> 0:15:58.880 that time. 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:00.320 So you know, America's always kind I'm. 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:01.800 In that way you're full of fun facts. 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:03.520 It's always fun times, you know. 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:04.080 Over here. 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:08.280 All right, let's go to the next one, shall we. 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:12.160 This is about the bond markets. So to resurrect the 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.440 Joe Wisenthal term, the bond market is the real deep 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:18.080 state A three please. And what you're watching there is 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:21.960 that the long term bond yields are absolutely blowing out 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:25.120 right now. And so look, obviously these things are variable, 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.600 but as of this morning, we saw a four point 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:31.520 nine you know, yield on bonds, which is like on 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.440 the thirty year bond at four point nine. The Again, 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:38.200 let's let's remember why this is important, which is that 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:42.760 this means that debt servicing, interest rates and all of 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:46.960 that are going to be more expensive for the government. 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.880 It also means that there is a either sell off 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:54.400 or lack of demand for the United States dollar and 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.960 for our bond. The very credibility of the United States 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:02.080 financial system and of the United States, Like I don't 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.560 even really know how to describe it because it is 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:08.280 so consequential. Remember it's the bond market that was took 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:12.200 down Liz Trusts as the Prime minister. But it's important 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.439 just to remember that when you see that happening. It 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:19.240 is a direct contradiction of the stated goal of the 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.080 Trump administration because one of the ways a Secretary Pston 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.120 was giving people a lot of cope is he was like, yeah, 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.040 the equities markets they go up, they go down, etc. 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:30.520 But the bond market, if we're able to do that, 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:33.679 because traditionally that's usually what happens during a downturn, well 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.280 that will be overall more beneficial to US consumers, to 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:40.160 our financial system, for the US Treasury. But instead they've 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:44.080 had the exact opposite, which definitely indicates foreign basically fleeing 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:46.760 of the dollar and of lack of confidence in overall 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:48.359 US markets. So that's what a lot of US are 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:48.760 looking at. 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:49.760 Again, uncertainty. 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:53.720 And I think fluctuations we see yesterday were because of 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:55.960 the I mean, I would argue that a lot of 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:58.639 it was a reaction to the tripling down of the 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:01.520 attacks on Powell, just because it creates certain. 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:03.600 Of course, I mean, and that's I was talking with 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:05.960 some people yesterday, go why yes, because you know we 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:08.159 saw it like a three something percent drop in the 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:09.720 S and P five hundred and there was I mean, 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:11.879