1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,240 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 2: Alex Steal here alongside Paul sw We need this Bloomberg 7 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: Intelligence Radio and everybody. We made it to Friday, but 8 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 2: not to disappoint the headlines keep coming that you mish 9 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 2: data coming out as paulishes talking about long term inflation 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 2: expectations hitting a thirty two year high. 11 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 3: You're looking at one. 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: Year inflation expectations jumping a four point nine percent. Joining 13 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 2: us now as Joanshue, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director, 14 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 2: joining us, Joanne, what is behind the rise in inflation expectations? 15 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 4: Very clear? Consumers are really worried about the impact of 16 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 4: these policy changes, particularly these tariffs that are changing on 17 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 4: a daily basis, kind of policy going in circles. Consumers 18 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 4: are really worried this is going to pass through to 19 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 4: the prices that they see, and they're concern this is 20 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 4: going to be something that's going to affect not just 21 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 4: the short term, but the long run as well. 22 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 5: So, Juane, give us a CeNSE here, I mean the 23 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 5: University of Michigan sentiment. The headline number came in at 24 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 5: fifty seven point nine, consensus was sixty three. Prior period 25 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 5: was sixty four point seven. Give us a sense of 26 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 5: how rare is a rate of change like we're seeing 27 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 5: here this month. How rare or how common is that? 28 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 4: So what we saw this month was an eleven percent 29 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 4: drop that in itself may not be notable, but what 30 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 4: is criticals that it follows two other months, two previous 31 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 4: months of pretty strong declines. We're now down twenty two 32 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 4: percent from the very beginning of the year. That is 33 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 4: a pretty long sustained drop and it reverses six months 34 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 4: of increases that we were seeing at the end of 35 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 4: twenty twenty four. So consumers are really concerned that we 36 00:01:55,600 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 4: are headed for a downturn. We saw deteriorating views of 37 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 4: about unemployment, about stock markets, about personal finances. 38 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:04,279 Speaker 3: Across the board. 39 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 4: Consumers are seeing a lot of downside of risks in 40 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 4: the years ahead. 41 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 2: Joanne, Before we let you go, how split is it 42 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: among party lines? 43 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 4: What we saw was a decline and sentiment across Republicans, Independence, 44 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 4: and Democrats. This is not something that's being driven only 45 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 4: by people who are not fans of Trump. Across all 46 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 4: three political groups. We saw declines and sentiment. 47 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 3: All right, Jient, Thanks Lott. 48 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 2: We really appreciate Joannshoue, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. 49 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 2: Director love getting you on on This is so so important. 50 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 51 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Otto 52 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 53 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 54 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 5: Alex Deal and Paul Sweeney we are live with you 55 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 5: here Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio in New York City. We're 56 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 5: also streaming live on youtubeesetever, YouTube dot com and search 57 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Podcast Live and that's where you'll find it. 58 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 6: Is the PGA Tour. 59 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 5: Is it Punt de Vidra Beach, Florida for the Players 60 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 5: Championship this week? A lot of folks call it the 61 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 5: fifth Major. I believe our next guest may also be 62 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 5: in Punt de Vidra and I'm going to put the 63 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 5: two together and assume there's a Morgan Stanley event down there. 64 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 5: Kathy and TWISLM, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management 65 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 5: and joints us here. Kathy, what are the conversations you're 66 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 5: having with your clients over the last couple of months. 67 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 5: I mean two months ago, socker market was all time high. 68 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 5: Everybody's feeling good. A little bit different here today. 69 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 7: Absolutely, the conversations have definitely been more challenging. There's a 70 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 7: lot of anxiety and fear about the markets. But part 71 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 7: of our job is to walk them through it and 72 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 7: talk them through it and also talk about positioning and 73 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 7: maybe taking advantage of some of the market volatility to 74 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 7: reposition what we have in order to get on board 75 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 7: for the next phase of the market. 76 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 3: What is the next phase of the market? 77 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, the. 78 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 7: Next phase of the market is basically trying to think 79 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 7: about who the new winners are, where the new opportunities 80 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 7: will be going forward. Also what type of you know, 81 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 7: whether it's on the equity side, you know, corporations, companies 82 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 7: that we're investing in different cap sizes, you know, large companies, 83 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 7: small companies, and mid companies if they're value or growth. 84 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,840 Speaker 7: We like the mid growth area of the market. We 85 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 7: like the large value area of the market. We like 86 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 7: what we call it que GARB, which is quality growth 87 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 7: at a reasonable price. And we also like we're going 88 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 7: to start bringing in some of the duration a little 89 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 7: bit more based on where we are with the rates. 90 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 5: Kathy's I mean, we've just got that University of Michigan 91 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 5: data came out today and obviously the sentiment much lower 92 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 5: than forecast, inflation expectations much higher than consensus forecasts. Do 93 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 5: you get that sense when you talk to your Morgan 94 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 5: Stanley private wealth clients. 95 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think this is not going to be an 96 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 7: easy year ahead. I think there'll be a lot of 97 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 7: bumps and volatility and a lot of sideways trading. So 98 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 7: it's more about understanding where are managing expectations and looking 99 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 7: just for the opportunities to make those shifts. Clients are 100 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 7: definitely more worried, you know, this year, especially in the 101 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 7: last couple of weeks. I've gotten a lot of phone calls. 102 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 7: We've had a lot of conversations, and we are just 103 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 7: for my clients personally. We're walking them through the process 104 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 7: and the markets and reminding them of all the times 105 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,239 Speaker 7: we've had these kind of downturns and that they're very normal. 106 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 7: It's very normal to have a ten percent you know, 107 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 7: drop in the market every twelve. 108 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,799 Speaker 3: Months, but the whippy headlines are not normal. 109 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 2: So how do you then filter the noise from the reality. 110 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, again, it's it's looking at the metrics and the numbers. 111 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 7: You know, there's two different sides to the equation. There's 112 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 7: the pure quantitative side, the numbers and statistics and our 113 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 7: history and what we can think, you know, sort of 114 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 7: look forward to with knowing those numbers. And then there's 115 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 7: the qualitative side, the emotions and the challenges. So part 116 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 7: of our job is to take the qualitative side out 117 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 7: of it, take the emotions out of this and look 118 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 7: at it purely from where are the opportunities and how 119 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 7: can we keep our clients invested in the markets, Because 120 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 7: if you take your money out, you have the potential 121 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 7: to pay cap gain taxes. You also have the potential 122 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 7: to not know when the right time is to get 123 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 7: back in. So if you're positioned well and you're invested 124 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 7: in the right companies, that will turn around eventually. And 125 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 7: it's a patience game. 126 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 5: How does fixed income fixing fit into the discussions these days? 127 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 5: You're having kathy with your clients because they could sid 128 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 5: it a to your treasure. You can get about four 129 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 5: percent if you want to take creditists, they can get 130 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 5: a little bit more than that, and maybe in an 131 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 5: inviolable market that's not the worst thing. So how do 132 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 5: you talk about fixed income? 133 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 6: Yeah? 134 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 7: Absolutely, So what we do is when we're talking about 135 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 7: fixed income, I've got an allocation for most of my 136 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 7: clients in municipal bonds in their taxable accounts and corporate 137 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 7: bonds in their retirement accounts. And they know that it's 138 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 7: an asset class that is typically non correlated to the 139 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 7: equity market. When we have volatility in the market, this 140 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 7: will be what keeps them up. 141 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 8: You know. 142 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 7: It's like their portfolio up and buffered and a little 143 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 7: bit more on the conservative or safer side. And they're 144 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 7: getting in the same time, tax free income. And if 145 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 7: you're getting yields that are tax free, the taxicquipment meals 146 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 7: are higher than the four percent that you're talking about 147 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 7: with the treasuries. 148 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 2: What about in the corporate credit market. So there's a 149 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 2: lot been made about how equities are reflecting that recession sentiment, 150 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 2: but the high yield market has not been, but we 151 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 2: just started to see kind of spreads widening a little bit. 152 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 3: But investment grade still seems a little protected. 153 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 7: What do you think, Yeah, I've been giving my clients 154 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 7: an investment grade. I think it's just smarter. At this point, 155 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 7: you're not really getting paid the difference that you would 156 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 7: need to get paid to go for the high yields. 157 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 7: And I come from a time when we had a 158 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 7: lot of corporate de folds back in the eighties, so 159 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 7: I am very reminiscent of that, and I want to 160 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 7: stay away from any risk in my client's portfolios. They've 161 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 7: won the game. There's no need to take more risk 162 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 7: in something that's supposed to be a little bit more safer. Conservative. 163 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 5: That said, though, I hear a lot of registered investment advisors, 164 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 5: Kathy that talk about alternative investments as something their clients 165 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 5: really want allocation to it, and it's not just five 166 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 5: or ten percent, it can be twenty thirty percent. What 167 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 5: kind of the discussions you have with your clients about 168 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 5: alternative investments. 169 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, we've been using alternative investment investments in our client's 170 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 7: portfolios as long as it's appropriate for them and they 171 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 7: qualify for it. But it's very interesting because that again 172 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 7: is non correlated. We do expect, for example, on the 173 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 7: credit side, you're talking about fixed income. On the credit side, 174 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 7: in alternatives, you can get higher yields, and some of 175 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 7: those can have some tax advantages to them if they 176 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 7: are involved in sort of you know, read or something 177 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 7: along those lines. So al terms, that are a great 178 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 7: way to get the diversification. Typically, I am looking to 179 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 7: get my clients invested twenty percent on average in alts, 180 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 7: depending on the size of their personal portfolios. And also 181 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 7: we're doing it over time. We're not doing all usually 182 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 7: in like one fell swoop, although now Evergreens, I'm sure 183 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 7: you guys are familiar with the evergreens, where if they 184 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 7: have more liquidity, they're more aligned with an investor's time 185 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,559 Speaker 7: frame and goals, and so you can get more invested 186 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 7: without capital calls that way, which is really a nice 187 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 7: way to get clients invested in this part of the market. 188 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 3: All right, Kathy, thanks a lot. We really appreciated. 189 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 2: Kathy and Whistle, Managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. 190 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 2: Enjoy that weather in Florida. 191 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 192 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 193 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, Listen on demand wherever 194 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 195 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,239 Speaker 2: Okay, let's go back up to the colder weather in Canada. 196 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 2: Jessin Trudeau officially out Markcarney officially in this is a 197 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 2: different change now for the Canadian government. Creates an opening 198 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 2: for that government to reset its relationship with the US 199 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 2: and President Donald Trump. 200 00:09:58,240 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 3: But will it. 201 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 2: Brian Platt, Bloomberg d and Government reporter joins us. Now, Brian, first, 202 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 2: before we get to the inner workings, do we even 203 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 2: know what a Carneie Trump relationship is before Carney took 204 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 2: the helm. 205 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 8: No, we have not had a chance to put this 206 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 8: question to Carne yet. I mean, Mark Carney really has 207 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 8: not done very much media. We're expecting a news conference 208 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 8: this afternoon, and I suspect he will be asked that 209 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 8: very question. So you know, whether they have any pre 210 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 8: existing relationship at all is one of the biggest questions 211 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 8: that I have right now. But I do think in general, 212 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 8: Carney is approaching this as a chance to ideally reset 213 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 8: the relationship that had become very tense and very even 214 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 8: hostile between President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau. 215 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 5: Is there a sense that I mean, seeing this thing 216 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 5: seems to go one of two ways. Either you kind 217 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 5: of accept to a very large extent, the terms that 218 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 5: President Trump is offering as a release to tariff's or 219 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 5: you fight it, as it appears that Canada had been 220 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 5: doing perhaps more aggrestively than than anybody else out there. 221 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 5: Do we have any sense how mister Karney wants to 222 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 5: move that forward. 223 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 8: Well, he has said already he's not taking off Canada's 224 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 8: retaliatory tariffs until the US fully commits to you know, 225 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 8: a free, free and fair trade relationship. So that probably 226 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 8: means until the US lifts all the tariffs that it 227 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,559 Speaker 8: is put on Canada. Because you know, I I was 228 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 8: dealing aluminum just recently, and there were other tariffs in 229 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 8: place from earlier March. So at the moment Carney has 230 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 8: promised to keep Canada's retaliation in place. I will also 231 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 8: say he's constrained by public opinion here. Canadian public opinion 232 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 8: is demanding retaliation and in fact probably wants even harsher retaliation. 233 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 8: So I will be very surprised if Carney softens too 234 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,079 Speaker 8: much on this. But you know, if you can get 235 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 8: into a negotiation here, maybe there's room to adjust how 236 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 8: Canada is responding. 237 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, when I was down and who's in Texas at 238 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 2: Sarah Week, which is in a global energy conference. When 239 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 2: I was speaking off the record, people are like Canadians 240 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 2: are just mad, like full on mad. When we take 241 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 2: a look at the ability of the government in and 242 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 2: of itself to respond, there are many territories that have 243 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 2: free They all have free reign. The provinces can do 244 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 2: what they want. We saw that with Ontario. So what's 245 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 2: the coordination between say Carnee and the individual regions. 246 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 8: To some extent, provinces have free rein I mean this 247 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 8: is a you know, Canada's of federation, just like the 248 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 8: US is where states have certain powers in general on 249 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 8: international trade, it's the federal government and so most of 250 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 8: the tools that you retaliate on our federal tools. The 251 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 8: provinces have certain things that they can control. In Ontario's case, 252 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 8: it was the electricity system. So the province of Ontario 253 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 8: had briefly put in an export tax essentially on its 254 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,439 Speaker 8: electricity trade with the US. But most when you talk 255 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 8: about count tariffs and things like that, that's all in 256 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 8: the federal government. Jurisdiction. The provinces are just looking at 257 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 8: some of the other things they can do. One of 258 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 8: the biggest things we've seen is provinces control their own 259 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 8: liquor distribution systems, and so quite a few provinces have 260 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 8: taken all American made liquor off the shelves until the 261 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 8: US lifts its tariff. So you do see some smaller, 262 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 8: sort of more targeted responses like that from the provincial level. 263 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 5: Brian, can you educate us as to when an election 264 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 5: may happen in Canada? 265 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 8: The most likely scenario is very soon. I think the 266 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 8: end of next week is what I'm looking at, and 267 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 8: that's sort of the conventional wisdom right now. So Mark 268 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 8: Karney will be sworn in today. I believe we've reported 269 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 8: he's about to go on a short europe trip to 270 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 8: France in England, which I will kind of be a 271 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 8: Monday Tuesday thing, I think, And then I suspect by 272 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 8: the end of the week, maybe even on the weekend, 273 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 8: he calls a staff election, and so in that case, 274 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:57,319 Speaker 8: you're looking at an election date of late April or 275 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 8: early May. 276 00:13:58,120 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 5: And what are the polls showing now. 277 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 8: Well, they're changing. It's fascinating. The Conservatives in Canada under 278 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 8: Pierre Pauliev looked like they were cruising to a majority government. 279 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 8: They were up by twenty five points for most of 280 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 8: last year. It's we're now entering a dead heat, I mean, 281 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,479 Speaker 8: and it's essentially because of Donald Trump's threats. Trudeau's resignation 282 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 8: has led to that as well in Carney's ascent to 283 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 8: the leadership. All right, but it's Trump's tariffs. 284 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 5: Yep, very good, Brian, Thank you so much for reporting. 285 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 5: We really appreciated Brian Platt, government reporter Bloomberg News. He's 286 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 5: in Ottawa. Talk about boots on the ground, folks. Get 287 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 5: that fantastic reporting. We'll stay on top of that election 288 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 5: that may come as soon as a week or two. 289 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 290 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 291 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 292 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 293 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 2: One of the headlines today is that Gold broke three 294 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 2: thousand dollars an ounce. 295 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 3: I remember covering Gold when it wasn't even one thousand 296 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 3: dollars and outs. 297 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 2: So this is like for US gold nerds and gold bugs, 298 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: this is like a moment of balloons and stuff, and 299 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: that question becomes like how long can this last? Mike mcloon, 300 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence and your commodity strategist who was also covering 301 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 2: gold before it was even one thousand dollars nouns. Hey, Mike, 302 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 2: if I had told you twenty years ago gold will 303 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 2: be at three thousand, what kind of economy would that 304 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: have represented? 305 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 9: Yeah, it'd be there's significant inflation or severe deflation. I 306 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 9: think the key reason gold's rallying now is because it's 307 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 9: anticipating the deflation, significant potential deflation if US risks as 308 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 9: its most noted stock market continues to can either say 309 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 9: go down or mean revert because it went up so 310 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 9: much the last few years. 311 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 6: I think that's what's happening now. 312 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 9: The gold market's anticipating stock market going down. Okay, that 313 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 9: was been the best place to be along with cryptos 314 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 9: for decades now, along with high bond yields, and now 315 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 9: gold's starting to understand that, oh that rally. 316 00:15:58,440 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 6: Might be over. 317 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 9: And you're seeing that flows ETFs had outflows of four 318 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 9: years in a row, and they're really kicking in this year, 319 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 9: they're up about four percent, which would be the most 320 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 9: since twenty twenty. 321 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 5: And Alice, when I first met Mike years ago, when 322 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 5: we were first talking about him coming to Bloomberg, and 323 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 5: he said, Hey, Mike, put your commodities call, buy gold, 324 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 5: sell everything else. 325 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 6: I mean he's pretty. 326 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 3: Much always been right on that one. Already care at 327 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 3: that point, what's that? 328 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 5: No? 329 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 3: Okay, so that's all maybe already? 330 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 5: Yeah. So hey, Mike, how do you get a senseor 331 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 5: how of gold traders? I'm not sure if people trade 332 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 5: gold or they investing goal, but how did they feel 333 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 5: about valuation? 334 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 8: Like at some point people. 335 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 6: Say, oh, this this stock. 336 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 5: Has just gotten too far ahead of itself. Do we 337 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 5: ever say that about a commodity like gold? 338 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 9: Well I, Paul, I love how you go there, because 339 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 9: we know you're an equity person in valuations in your 340 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 9: brain in commodities. The main lesson you learn commodities is 341 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 9: they go down because they went up. That's why Crudell's 342 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 9: at sixty five. 343 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 6: Dollars a barrow. It went out too much. The big 344 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 6: difference is gold. The big difference is gold. 345 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 9: The key thing is, oftentimes you're trying to find a 346 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 9: cost of production is evaluation. We usually goes to what's happening. 347 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 9: What's different with gold. It's the only commodity that really 348 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 9: goes up over time continuously, partly because the supply can 349 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 9: only crease on average two percent forever, and it's harder 350 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 9: and harder to produce, and it's monetary value. 351 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 6: So that's what's the significance of gold. 352 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 9: Gold is up about sixty five percent since February of 353 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 9: twenty and twenty that's when the announcement between of the 354 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 9: unlimited French rate friendship between President and zeeing President Putin, 355 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 9: and it's continuing now. The key thing it's looking forward 356 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 9: is we're seeing deflationary forces in China potentially kicking over 357 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 9: in this country. 358 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 6: And I'm really worry now. 359 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 9: I don't want gold to stay above three thousand, but 360 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 9: I think it will, particularly because of the reasons I'm 361 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 9: worried about. Is the US stock market having a bit 362 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 9: of a normal correction now ten percents, nothing compared to 363 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 9: what usually happens when you have a major shift, which 364 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 9: we're having a paradigm shift. And what's happening in the US, 365 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,400 Speaker 9: maybe how about twenty or thirty percent in stock market 366 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 9: That means gold continues higher. So I'm worried at these levels, 367 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 9: but I think it's going to continue rally for reasons 368 00:17:58,119 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 9: that are going to hurt most investors unfortunately. 369 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 2: Is it also to do with this idea that maybe 370 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 2: the government could mark to market their gold reserves and 371 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 2: then confiscate gold in order to use that and sort 372 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 2: of ramp up the federal the Fed's balance sheet. 373 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 3: Now many individuals are going to roll their. 374 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 2: Eyes at this and say, oh my god, Alex, seriously, 375 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 2: but no, seriously. Could this also be driving some of 376 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:23,640 Speaker 2: the last minute buyers. 377 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 6: I think that's part of it, Alex. 378 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 9: What we're seeing is a major shift of gold coming 379 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 9: to the US because the disparities and US COMEX traded 380 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 9: gold versus what trades in London. That's usuly indicative of 381 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 9: bull market. That whole scenario, I think is part of it. 382 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 9: Seems kind of odd to me. Whatever you have the 383 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 9: price on the books or not, is it's still US 384 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 9: still has about eight thousand tons of gold. 385 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 6: It's on it the books at forty two. 386 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,440 Speaker 9: Dollars an ounce. Okay, it should be marked the market. 387 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 9: Why not market? I'm just not the accountant, so I 388 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 9: don't really get why that's going to matter for the 389 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 9: price of goal. 390 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 6: It's a global commodity, and I always one thing I've 391 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 6: always enjoyed in. 392 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,120 Speaker 9: The space of gold bugs is a estate it's manipulated 393 00:18:59,200 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 9: like in the US. 394 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 6: Like well, it's a global commodity. 395 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 9: It's kind of hard to manimplate something you can trade 396 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 9: around the world, and people in India and China hoard 397 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 9: it for a good reason historically and particularly Turkey. But 398 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,400 Speaker 9: I look at that is gold has a good reason 399 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 9: to keep going up. And that's particularly because what's just start. 400 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 9: One key fact is at the end of last year 401 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 9: the US stock market captain GDP was about two x. 402 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 9: Now it's going back downward. It's down about six trillion 403 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 9: dollars this year. That's twenty percent of GDP. I mean, 404 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,640 Speaker 9: that's a ten. And what really matters for deflation if 405 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 9: that continues, that's what pressures bond yields lower, pressures the 406 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 9: FED to ease pressure's inflation, and makes gold go higher. 407 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 9: To me, that's the ten that matters in gold. And 408 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 9: then there's all those little nuances in between that you 409 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 9: see in a normal bull. 410 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 6: Market outside of gold. 411 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 5: What looks good to you in your space your commodity space. 412 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 9: Well, what's been oddly looking really good is copper, and 413 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 9: I'm really not on board that trade. Fundamentally, US trade 414 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 9: of copper's bumping up against the highest price ever, which 415 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 9: was forty four in February of twenty twenty two. I 416 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 9: mentioned that month earlier, actually March, and it keeps bumping up, 417 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 9: but it's for the wrong reasons. It's because of that 418 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 9: disparity between the price that trades on the CME, which 419 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 9: is right now about four hours and ninety cents, and 420 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 9: price that trades on the LME in London. It's because 421 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 9: US terraces, but generally means that will be offset, money 422 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 9: will flow, the arbitrage will kick in. It doesn't, so 423 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 9: I look at industrial metals as a whole indication copper 424 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 9: is a bit of a nuance. Industrial metals versus gold 425 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 9: are showing severe global deflationary potential forces gold going up 426 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,400 Speaker 9: and dustrial metals not going up as much. 427 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 6: Copper just doesn't seem like. 428 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 9: It can stay up this level levels too much unless 429 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 9: China really kicks in. And yeah, they're bouncing, but I 430 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 9: don't really see it. With tariff's just starting to accelerate. 431 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 3: Oh, such a good point. 432 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 2: Such a good point if those deflationary forces are going 433 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 2: to drag down copper as well. Mike's super great. I 434 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 2: didn't do a year butt for you. I agree, but 435 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 2: everything you said, all right, Mike, thanks a lot. Mike 436 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 2: Maglow and Boomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist joining us on gold. 437 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 438 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live each 439 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 440 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 441 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 442 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal