1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 2: Welcome to the day Break Gasia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. 3 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 2: We begin in China where French President Emmanuel Macron met 4 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 2: earlier with Chinese President Chi Jinping. Now this meeting took 5 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 2: place as Paris is trying to rebalance its economic ties 6 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 2: with Beijing. Here is Bloomberg China correspondent minmin Low. 7 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 3: Just judging from the tone coming out of these state 8 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 3: media commentaries so far, it's been heavily covered in China 9 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 3: presidency calling the meeting candid and constructive and fruitful. There 10 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:45,959 Speaker 3: has been a range of cooperative agreements signed covering areas 11 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 3: like natural resources, like agriculture, food, education, investments. I think 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 3: the key focus for Macron is really to deepen trade 13 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 3: and investment ties, where he called for more Chinese investment, 14 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 3: saying that needs to be a clearer framework framework to 15 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 3: attract Chinese investments. He also warned against supply chain disruption, 16 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 3: and that was likely a reference to China's disruption of 17 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 3: the rare of access for European countries, although some of 18 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 3: those restrictions had been lifted, but it spooked many European 19 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 3: partners about over reliance on China. He also urged China 20 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 3: to extend its domestic consumption, saying that the one of 21 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 3: the worst ways to deal with the trading balance is 22 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 3: to start a trade war. And I think a key 23 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 3: focus for him is to correct the trading balance, given 24 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 3: that Franz still has about fifteen billion dollars in goods 25 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,199 Speaker 3: trade deficit in twenty twenty four. 26 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 2: That was Bloomberg China correspondent min Min Low. Now today 27 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 2: across the Asia Pacific equity markets are somewhat mixed. A 28 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 2: key question looming is on FED policy, not just the 29 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 2: high probability of a rate cut next week, but the 30 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 2: Fed's outlook for next year. And that's where we begin 31 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 2: our conversation with Charu Chanaana Chief Investment just at Saxo. 32 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 2: She spoke with Bloomberg TV host April Hong and Paul Allen. 33 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 4: Talk to us about why you saying maybe next year 34 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 4: will be even better for risk and Asia in particular. 35 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 5: Absolutely. 36 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,519 Speaker 6: Okay, so let's take the broader picture. First, it does 37 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 6: seem like we're getting that rate cut from the Fed, 38 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 6: and then going into next year if at all, you know, 39 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 6: the probability seems to be getting higher for and hast 40 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 6: led fed and that does mean that we could get 41 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 6: some more rate cuts going into next year. I mean, 42 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 6: of course, the market's already looking at three rate cuts 43 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 6: for next year. I've seen predictions of about one hundred 44 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 6: basis points of rate cuts as well. It's about three 45 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 6: to four rate cuts next day looks very very likely. 46 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 6: And on top of that, of course, the tech volatility 47 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 6: has gone out, but that has not really kind of 48 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 6: questioned the kind of k pix that has been going 49 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 6: on in this AI theme. Right, if that continues, especially 50 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 6: from the big hyperscalers that do have the ability to 51 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,119 Speaker 6: in some ways fund it as well, I do think, 52 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 6: of course the dispersion would continue and the broadening of 53 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 6: the AI team would continue in the US. But overall, 54 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 6: both of these macro dynamics are extremely positive for Asia 55 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 6: because if we do get that continued AIKPEX, the hardware 56 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 6: backbone off that AI cycle really rests in Asia, and 57 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 6: we've seen that theme play out in Taiwan and Korea. 58 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 5: I think it could spread out to some of the other. 59 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 6: Names as well, beyond the big names that have already 60 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 6: rallied quite strongly this year. Japan has been a huge 61 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 6: participation in Asia, and as I think with the volatility 62 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 6: in tech, as investors look to kind of shift away 63 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 6: from hype to the real fundamentals, I think the real 64 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 6: fundamentals are in Asia. When the US hyperscalers continue to 65 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 6: spend with really little insights into where they monetize it, 66 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 6: I think that spending continues to benefit Asia who do 67 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 6: continue to get strong order books on the back of 68 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 6: that spending. And then you club that with FED rate 69 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 6: cuts a softer dollar. Potentially all of those are very positive. 70 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 4: For ratio on the FED rate cuts you say three 71 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 4: or four n year. How much does that matter whether 72 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 4: we see this first half or second half? And to 73 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 4: what extent is it realistic to expect very dubbish fed 74 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 4: under potentially a fair chair hazard. Yes, given he's one man, 75 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 4: there are other people on the board. 76 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 6: Right exactly, and I think we will start to get 77 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 6: a reflection of that within this month as well as 78 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 6: to how divided the FED boat is getting. We've already 79 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 6: got some meetings we've seen that division play out, but 80 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 6: certainly I think this December meeting is even more important 81 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 6: because we still have a kind of a data blackout. 82 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 6: Even though the government shutdown is over, we haven't had 83 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 6: the most recent data for the FED to really judge where. 84 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 5: Things are going. 85 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:55,239 Speaker 6: We've had obviously some political influence playing a part as well, 86 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 6: So the division is certainly getting much more starker within 87 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 6: the FED, and that will be a theme going into 88 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 6: next year as well. But I think within the first 89 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 6: half of the year, even if we do not substantially 90 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,119 Speaker 6: get those rate cuts, certainly depending on where the labor 91 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 6: market is going, I think there is a chance that 92 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 6: we might get another one at the end of the 93 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 6: first quarter if the trend in the labor market sustains 94 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 6: to point towards more weakness. But I think the market 95 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 6: obviously reacts a little bit faster than the actual rate 96 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 6: cut itself, so I think that potential expectations of rate 97 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 6: cuts would also continue to support the markets. 98 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 7: Charie, do you see dollar weakness becoming a major theme 99 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 7: in twenty twenty six as we see divergence between major 100 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 7: central banks, particularly the FED, And how's that informing your 101 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 7: investment strategy? 102 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 6: It certainly seems like I mean, we've obviously seen a 103 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 6: lot of the dollar weakness this year as well, but 104 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 6: going into next year, I think it will be a 105 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 6: dual story of both yes, the FED rate cuts, but 106 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 6: also with those federates cuts, I think the fiscal situation 107 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 6: in the US will also continue to play a big part. 108 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 6: I think we might see, you know, this pivot towards 109 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 6: a much more fiscal spending, which could raise concerns for 110 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 6: the long end in the US, and that obviously again 111 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 6: points towards you know, the weaker dollar. We've seen global 112 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 6: central banks trying to obviously diversify their reserves as well 113 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 6: move away from the US dollar. So it does not 114 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 6: still spell the end of the US dollar to me, 115 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 6: because we know that you know, eighty eight percent of 116 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 6: FX transactions one side is still the US dollar even 117 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:39,840 Speaker 6: within trade. I mean, of course we've got a little 118 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 6: bit more relevance for the Chinese renmen we in this region, 119 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 6: but I think globally again, US dollar continues to dominate 120 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 6: in a very significant manner, which is very difficult to 121 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 6: overtake by any other, you know, single currency, or even 122 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 6: for by goal for that matter. 123 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 5: So I think the dominance really stays. 124 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 6: But at the margin, these fiscal concerns also continue to 125 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 6: be a negative for the US all the next year. 126 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 5: In addition to of course the FED rate cuts. 127 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 7: Well, I know you say that while we're waiting on 128 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 7: these right cuts, while we're potentially waiting out and AI 129 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 7: polls as well, you like to look for assets that 130 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 7: pay you well during times of waiting. So can you 131 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:21,679 Speaker 7: give us some ideas in that regard? 132 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 6: Absolutely, I think with the yields you know going down 133 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 6: as well, especially on the short end, I think it 134 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 6: is really important for investors who have parked cash, you know, 135 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 6: I think to understand that one your heels are going down. 136 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 6: Plus two, I think we're also still in an environment 137 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 6: of sticky inflation, so that also continues to erode the 138 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 6: purchasing power for cash. So I think obviously it is 139 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 6: very important to understand where you can get some of 140 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 6: those better yields if you are an income seeking investor particularly, 141 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 6: and in that case, I think it is next year 142 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 6: could be a story where we see a lot of 143 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 6: these dividend plays, you know, like reads for example, you 144 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 6: know an income other income plays very much and focus 145 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 6: given of course, because of the volatility in EA, you 146 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 6: want a little bit of a defensive balance in your portfolios. 147 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 6: Because of high concentration of techniques even in indices, you 148 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 6: want to balance your portfolios with something more defensive, but 149 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 6: also because you know, there are income seeking investors who 150 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:22,679 Speaker 6: want to continue to generate steady income. 151 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 5: Also just quickly if you can. 152 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 4: When it comes to currencies, what are you saying China 153 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 4: is thinking about guiding the vermintya because it seems to 154 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 4: make sense that it would be stronger. And then how 155 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 4: does that square with what India is thinking when it 156 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 4: comes to the currency. 157 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 6: Yes, two very divergent parts there. Avivial certainly, I think. 158 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 6: So when we talk about China all year, we've seen 159 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 6: that intent from China that they do not mind a 160 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 6: stronger Chinese you man now right, it is a signal 161 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 6: for them of a stronger economy as well. 162 00:08:58,320 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 5: And given that. 163 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 6: You know, they do want to kind of, you know, 164 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 6: be structurally stronger, strategically independent from the global economy, I 165 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 6: think it was very important for them to continue to 166 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 6: show that strength. But of course the pace of appreciation 167 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 6: in the Chinese yuan has I think obviously given I 168 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 6: mean we got that signal yesterday that that's not something 169 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 6: they're comfortable with. So my sense is here that they 170 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 6: might slow down the pace of appreciation, but they're not going. 171 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 5: To potentially reverse it at this point. 172 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 6: Whereas when you talk about India, obviously it has been 173 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 6: you know, the Indian rupee has been extremely weak, and 174 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 6: that also comes from I would say a policy stance 175 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 6: or an intent to kind of be a bigger player 176 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 6: in the global export or the global trade arena. I 177 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 6: think the weaker rupee could help them there, and that 178 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 6: might be the intention behind it. But again I would 179 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 6: say that they might slow down the pace of the 180 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 6: fall of the rupee, but I don't potentially see them 181 00:09:58,760 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 6: reversing that trend. 182 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 4: Okay, talking about trend reversals, the yen obviously this year 183 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 4: has been coming under a lot of pressure. 184 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 5: What is twenty twenty six it is going to look like? 185 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 4: I think part of the outrageous predictions that ZA actually 186 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 4: has is yes, whate hundred to the dollar. 187 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,479 Speaker 6: Yes, but just to put it right now in outrageous 188 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 6: predictions are not our baseline predictions. 189 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:19,719 Speaker 5: It's just something fun we. 190 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 6: Like to do to obviously, you know, encourage some level 191 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 6: of debate. But also I think there is a clear 192 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 6: intent to try to look at some of the blind 193 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 6: spots in your portfolios. You know, certainly this is not 194 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 6: our BAUS case, and it's not like we are telling 195 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 6: our clients that you should premire for a dollar yen 196 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 6: going two hundred. But what we've come up with, like 197 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 6: as a set of ten predictions, which talk about the 198 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 6: risks that investors might have ignored. So we take the 199 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:45,959 Speaker 6: trends that are on ready in place, and we take 200 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 6: them one or two steps further to really. 201 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 5: Spark that thinking. 202 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 6: You know, what if I'm exposed to this kind of 203 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 6: a risk in my portfolio, or what if I'm missing 204 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 6: this kind. 205 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 5: Of an opportunity in my portfolio. 206 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 6: So, talking particularly about dollar yen, that is not a 207 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 6: trend reversal. For sure, that has been a t and 208 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 6: that's ongoing for some time. Right, we're still very close 209 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 6: to these record low levels, despite the fact that we 210 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 6: are expecting now the market is expecting now the boj 211 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,959 Speaker 6: to high crates later this month, and that goes to 212 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 6: say a lot of things. One of course, that the 213 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 6: interest rate differential for Japanese bonds, which are obviously the 214 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 6: yields are rising but still so low that the interest 215 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 6: rate differential to the rest of the world are quite high, 216 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 6: and I think that continues to pressure the end. But 217 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 6: also the fiscal situation again very much what we talked 218 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 6: about for the US as well. Now we do have 219 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 6: an intent to be you know, fiscally more accommodative, even 220 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 6: more accommodative, i should say, in Japan, and that kind 221 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 6: of raises, you know, some concerns when you have two 222 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 6: thirty percent of you know, GDP debt, So I think 223 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 6: that kind of does raise some concerns. Again, it's not 224 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 6: something that will immediately come to them, because a lot 225 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 6: of debt is held by the BOJ itself in Japan, 226 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 6: but I think it's something that continues to concern investors. 227 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:02,199 Speaker 6: And of course the carry trade itself remains quite attractive still. 228 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 6: But things really start to turn if we see FED 229 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 6: cutting aggressively next. Yeah, I don't think the buj's small 230 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 6: steps of rate hikes could really reverse the situation rapidly. 231 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 6: But if the FED really triggers like those hundred basis 232 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 6: points of rate cut and a very dabbash policy, we 233 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 6: could see dollar yet moving lower in that. 234 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 2: That's Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, speaking with 235 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV host April Hong and Paul Allen here on 236 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. 237 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,959 Speaker 2: I'm Doug Chrisner. Today, a bipartisan group of US senators 238 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 2: introduced a bill to block in Video from selling its 239 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 2: h two hundred and Blackwell chips to China. 240 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 3: Now. 241 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 2: The bill intends to codify existing US restrictions on exports 242 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 2: of advanced semiconductors to the Chinese market. It will also 243 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:02,479 Speaker 2: halt export lice, instance, for sales of chips to adversaries 244 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 2: for at least thirty months. Here is Gene Monster. He 245 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 2: is co founder and managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management. 246 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 8: If we don't sell those self some form of chips 247 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:14,719 Speaker 8: to China, they'll just go and create their own and 248 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 8: we can benefit in the near term of having them 249 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 8: dependent on our platform. If you think of like Nvidia, 250 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 8: for example, it's. 251 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:22,079 Speaker 3: Not just the chip. 252 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 8: They have a Kuda development platform, and so getting their 253 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 8: developers based on that does give the US some form 254 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 8: of leverage in terms of how the technology rolls out 255 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 8: in the years to come. 256 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 2: Today's shares in Nvidia were a little changed in the 257 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: US session. Overall, the equity market state side struggle to 258 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 2: gain any traction in front of next week's FED decision. 259 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 2: Let's take a closer look with James Thorn. He is 260 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 2: chief market strategist at Wellington Altist Private Wealth. He joins 261 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 2: us from Toronto. Jim, thanks for being here. I think 262 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 2: it's fair to say that markets right now are largely 263 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 2: betting on the FED cutting interest rates next week by 264 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 2: twenty five bay points. But it's fair to point out 265 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 2: that policymakers have rarely been so divided if we focus 266 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 2: on the weakness in the labor market. Are you expecting 267 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 2: a cut? 268 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: Yes, I am. I think the larger question is, you 269 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: know what is what economists would say is what's the 270 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 1: terminal rate or where does the FED stop cutting? Is 271 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: it going to be a two seventy five? Is it 272 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: going to be a three twenty five? But one thing 273 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 1: we know as investors is that you know in twenty 274 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: twenty six liquidity is coming into the market, which should 275 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: be good for risk assets. 276 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 2: So as we know, some members of the FED have 277 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 2: highlighted the risk of sticky inflation. On Wednesday. Just the 278 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 2: other day, we learned from the ISM that prices of 279 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 2: services and materials on an annual basis are holding in 280 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 2: at around three percent, and some of the other inflation 281 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 2: readings that we have seen recently show inflation still above 282 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 2: the fed's two percent target. I'm wondering if that's a 283 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 2: concern for. 284 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: You, you know, because I look at first, I recognize 285 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: that shelter is one of the driving components of CPI 286 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: and PCE, and we know that's lagged. And if we 287 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: put market based indicators into both of those variables, there 288 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: is no inflation problem. And then you know, service inflation 289 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: has always been sticky since I've been in the business 290 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: for thirty years, so you know, you know, what the 291 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: FED can do in terms of its monetary policy is 292 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: really affect the business the interst rate sensitive sectors of 293 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: the economy, and I agree with Secretary Present that, you know, 294 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: the interesst rate sensitive sector and the economy is in 295 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 1: a recession, specifically housing, and so they need to. 296 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 2: Cut There's also been some debate as to whether or 297 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 2: not lower interest rates can have a meaningful impact on 298 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 2: improving the labor market. Maybe we need to consider some 299 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 2: of the other forces that have contributed to a restructuring 300 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 2: and I'm thinking of AI in particular. Perhaps the labor 301 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 2: market is not as sensitive to changes in rate policy 302 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 2: as it once was. 303 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: That's a fair point, and you know, in these recoveries 304 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: where you know, technology recovery driven recoveries, labor lags. And 305 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: I think there is some conversations or some indication coming 306 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: under the FED that they indicate that the real risk 307 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: is in the labor market and we need to give 308 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 1: support to the interest rate sensitive sector and wait to 309 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: see if President Trump's supply side policies kick in and 310 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: all that investment that is supposedly coming in because of terrorists, 311 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: and if that happens. The interesting thing about it is 312 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 1: that we're not going to go back to you know, 313 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: secular stagnation and deflation. And the FED can be right 314 00:16:55,640 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: in basically saying that the neutral rate is somewhere around 315 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:04,120 Speaker 1: two seventy five to three percent. But if they tightened 316 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: too much, as and they contracted the balance sheet too much, 317 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: as happened after the Second World War, you could get 318 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: a real gross scare in debt and deflation really come back. 319 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: And once you get those expectations going the other way, 320 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,479 Speaker 1: it's really hard to put the genie back in the bottle. 321 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 2: So I'm speaking to you from Toronto. Maybe we can 322 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 2: talk a little bit about the trade relationship between the 323 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 2: US and Canada. Today, President Trump signaled the US could 324 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 2: withdraw entirely from the us MCA and renegotiate large parts 325 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 2: of that trade accord with both Canada and Mexico sometime 326 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 2: next year. Jim, I'm wondering from your point of view, 327 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 2: does the USMCA need to be restructured. 328 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, it has to be restructured, yes, And you know, 329 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 1: let's be honest the you know, and this is how 330 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: I frame it is that, you know, irrespective of President Trump, 331 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,719 Speaker 1: because interest payments on debt in the United States are 332 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 1: greater than military expenditures, we have to or the Americans 333 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: have to adjust. So let's realize that and figure out 334 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: what we're going to do. And so when you think 335 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 1: about it, what Canada has to do is they have 336 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: to basically start exporting their one you know, competitive advantage, right, 337 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 1: which is natural resources. And so those areas of the 338 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: economy that were protected under the USMCA, for example, autos. Really, 339 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 1: you know, we have to be honest with ourselves and 340 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: to say that Canada doesn't really have a competitive advantage there, right, 341 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 1: I mean in Ontario where I live in Toronto, right 342 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 1: with Premier Doug Ford, I'm sorry, you know, electricity prices 343 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: in Ontario are too high. So you know, Canada has 344 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: needs to do the structural adjustment, just like the United States. 345 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: So I think we have to be honest and see 346 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: how is Canada in the United States going to create 347 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 1: a relationship where they both can be stronger. And I 348 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 1: really think that Prime Minister Carney and President Trump in 349 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 1: his cabinet understand that. So to me, it's not as 350 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 1: as scary as some people would bring up. 351 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 2: You mentioned natural resources, and in Canada, I think of 352 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 2: the energy complex being a big part of that story. 353 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 2: So when we consider the hunger that we have now 354 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 2: for power, in particular to drive some of these AI 355 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 2: data centers, this seems to represent a big opportunity for Canada. 356 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 2: The question is whether there will be cooperation. 357 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: Yes, and I think the only thing that needs has 358 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 1: to happen is it takes time. Right Canada has you know, 359 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: I lived in the States for twenty five years. Canada 360 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: has neglected its core competency, which is now to resources. 361 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 1: So you just don't open a mine, just don't build 362 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 1: a pipeline, You just don't build a nuclear reactor. You know, Doug, 363 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: Back in the fifties and sixties, Canada was a world 364 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: leader in nuclear power. And nuclear technology. So it just 365 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: takes time. And yes, so and I agree with Prime 366 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: Minister Carneia on this. You know, pipelines are boring because 367 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: really what Canada needs to do is stop exporting its 368 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: natural resources and start processing it and using those natural 369 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: resources to create a diversified economy, which would mean AI 370 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,880 Speaker 1: and I think that's the next step. So we need time. 371 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 1: But at the same point in time, Look, I mean 372 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: and Canada and the United States, it's we're family. We fight, 373 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: but at the same point in time, we will grow 374 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: together in this new environment. And Canada can really help 375 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: by bringing resources and critical materials and energy and natural 376 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 1: resource to the forefront. So I am very constructive on 377 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: what's going forward. And you know, as Prime Minister Carney 378 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,880 Speaker 1: said it, the Council and Foreign Relations we have to adjust. 379 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: We're dealing with the reckoning and so but that takes time. 380 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 1: But you know, if you understand that there's lots of 381 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: opportunities all over the place to take advantage of that. 382 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,679 Speaker 2: What about the processing of rare earth minerals. This is 383 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,120 Speaker 2: an industry that China really dominates. And can you imagine 384 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 2: a world where Canada steps up and begins developing a 385 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:36,479 Speaker 2: more robust infrastructure for processing rare earths. 386 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: Yes, when you think about the problem that Canadians have 387 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 1: had in the past, it's been that they do not 388 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:51,199 Speaker 1: want to process natural resources because of the pollution. And 389 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 1: I really think that Canada really needs to have an 390 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 1: honest conversation with themselves. You know, let's talk about the 391 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: tanker ban on the on the west coast of uh Canada. 392 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: Yet you know, tankers flow freely on the east coast. 393 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: Think about all the pipelines that we've had. So I 394 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,199 Speaker 1: think what's happened is we've had a decade of what 395 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: I would call virtue ce doing that has really cost 396 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: Canada standard of living. And so we're in the early 397 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 1: phases of shifting. And what I would say to you 398 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: is is Mark Kearney is a very smart man. He 399 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,919 Speaker 1: is a you know, a world class central banker. But 400 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 1: don't forget he you know, cut his teeth in the 401 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,919 Speaker 1: private sector with Goldman Sachs and and later on in Brookfield. 402 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: So he understands it. But it's you know, it's one 403 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 1: thing for you and I to talk about it, but 404 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 1: he's got to play the political battlefield up in Canada 405 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,920 Speaker 1: to get everything going and he only has a minority 406 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 1: government right now, so I think he he has a 407 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 1: handle on what's happening, but he's got to move a 408 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: lot of the chess pieces and so it's going to 409 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: take time. But power is going to go south. You know, 410 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: we're going to have a few industries that are going 411 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: to get hard because they were protected by USMCA. But 412 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: when you have an economy that is resource rich, you know, 413 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: in the long run, we're going to be okay. So 414 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 1: Canada has what the world wants. We've just got to 415 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 1: get our act together and start getting it to the 416 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 1: world market and moving forward with long duration infrastructure projects 417 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: and saying to the world's the global capital markets, you know, 418 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 1: we're open for business and the rules aren't going to change. 419 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 2: So we've talked a little bit about the relationship between 420 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 2: Canada and the US, and we're well aware of the 421 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 2: tension between China and the US. So I'm wondering whether 422 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 2: you see opportunities for Canada to strengthen its relationship with China. 423 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 1: I think the two countries will co exis, but I 424 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,120 Speaker 1: don't think there will be significant strengthening. I think the 425 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: Teutonic plates that are happening right now is negotiations between 426 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 1: President Trump and mister Putin and also mister she I 427 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: really think that the powers to be are going to 428 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: come to some agreement, a peace dividend, as you will say, 429 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 1: I will call it, so that we can get a 430 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: period of time where we can all grow out of 431 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:38,359 Speaker 1: this debt mess that we're in. So no, but I 432 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:43,719 Speaker 1: would honest, but I want to say, look, if you know, 433 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 1: with Premier Smith and Alberta, we build the pipeline to 434 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 1: the West coast and we ship you know, oil to 435 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 1: China or to Asia. I think there is going to 436 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: be a global trading relationship, but I don't think it's 437 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,199 Speaker 1: going to be anything more than that. 438 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,680 Speaker 2: Okay, Chim, well leave it there. Always a pleasure, Thank 439 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 2: you so very much. James Thorn is the chief market 440 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 2: Strategist at Wellington Altis Private Wealth. Joining from Toronto, Canada. 441 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 2: Here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening to 442 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 2: today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, 443 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,959 Speaker 2: we look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics 444 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 2: in the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify, 445 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. 446 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves 447 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 2: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Risner, 448 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg