1 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: Hi everyone, this is Lee Clasgow and we're Talking Transports. 2 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to Bloomberg Intelligence Talking Transports podcast. I'm your host, 3 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 1: Lee Clasgal, Senior Freight Transportation Logistics sandal Us at Bloomberg Intelligence, 4 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's end house research arm of almost five hundred analysts 5 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: and strategists around the world. A quick public service announcement 6 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: before we dive in. Your support is instrumental to keep 7 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: bringing great guests and conversations to you, our listeners, and 8 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: we need your support. So please, if you enjoy this podcast, 9 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: share it, like it, and leave it comment. Also, if 10 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: you get ideas, feedback or just want to talk transports, 11 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: I'm always happy to connect. You can find me on 12 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal, on LinkedIn, or on Twitter at Logistics Lee. 13 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: Today's episode is a bonus episode taken from a panel 14 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: I moderated during a shipping event Bloomberg hosted on September sixteenth, 15 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: in conjunction with London International Ship Week. The panel consisted 16 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: of equity research analysts Frederick Didwatt from Friendly Securities and 17 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: Christopher Bartski from Arctic Securities. You will hear us discuss 18 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 1: the state and outlook for the liner, tanker and dryboat markets, 19 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: as well as their favorite names within the space. Hope 20 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: you enjoyed these conversations as much as I did. 21 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: All right, good afternoon, Thanks for sticking around. This is 22 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 2: the equity analyst panel. You may not know, but I'm 23 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 2: Lee Clascow, Bloomberg Intelligence senior transportation logistics analysts. In to 24 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 2: my left we have Frederick Dibwad excuse me, an equity 25 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 2: research analyst at Friendly Securities, and then to his left 26 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 2: is Christopher bart Ski, an equity analyst at Arctic Security. 27 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 3: So thank you very much for joining us, gentlemen. 28 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: We talked about a lot of different sub segments within 29 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 2: the shipping markets, whether it's dryball, tankers, liners, from an 30 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 2: equity analysts standpoint, Frederick, once you start off, what is 31 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 2: the kind of the state of the industry from your perspective? 32 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 4: You know, since you know, since the start of the year, 33 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 4: we had some headwinds on the entire most of the 34 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 4: shipping segments, but then we have Liberation Day and performance 35 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 4: on the shipping equity so that has been to be honest, 36 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 4: very there has been stellar since the Liberation Day and 37 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 4: forefronted by tankers have been really good. Containers have performed well, 38 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 4: drivable cast perform well, and the same can be sailable 39 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 4: but for the LPG guys as well. So I think 40 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 4: the state in the market is very good. Obviously, we 41 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 4: have a big order book in a lot of the segments, 42 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 4: which over time may pressure the supply demand balance, but overall, 43 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 4: I think shipping segment looks looks pretty good. 44 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 2: Christopher, what are you looking at when when you're for 45 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 2: your outlook, you know which sub segment is better positioned 46 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 2: relative to the others. 47 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 5: If we do just do an easy approach to start with, 48 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 5: I think one should look at the supplies side of 49 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 5: the equation. So order book is the easiest both to 50 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 5: start looking at, and then you have drible cat eleven 51 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 5: percent or the book the fleet trade show tankers at 52 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,959 Speaker 5: fifteen percent, and then we have had quite massive ordering 53 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 5: among other sub segments. 54 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 6: So I mean LNG and the. 55 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 5: Order book there is forty five percent, car carriers mid thirties. 56 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 5: Then you have the VLGCS is around thirty percent, and 57 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 5: then containers which is now at thirty percent. Again, so 58 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 5: if you just look at where we're going to have 59 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 5: maybe struggles with over capacity over the coming years, I'm 60 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 5: guessing it will not be on the tankers and dribal style, 61 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 5: but the odor segments I'm a bit more skeptical about. 62 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 2: In howbould you, fred do you have a differing opinion 63 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: or mostly in line? 64 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know it's it's mostly in line, I think, 65 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 4: you know, looking at space car carriers and containers, the 66 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 4: order book is is massive. Containers are they just continue 67 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 4: ordering vessels? Order book is actually the highest that it 68 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 4: has ever been in TU terms. Twenty twenty eight would 69 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 4: be the highest ever t US delivered. And you know, 70 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 4: echo most what Christophers say. And from a supply side 71 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 4: point of view, it definitely looks it looks very very 72 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 4: enticing on the bulker and the tanker side. 73 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 2: And so, Frederick, what are your some of your favorite 74 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 2: ideas right now in terms of stock ideas that you're 75 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:31,559 Speaker 2: talking to your clients about. 76 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, so I talk a lot of tankers. I 77 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 4: took a lot of bulkers. You can start with the 78 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 4: tanker side. Obviously, the VLCC trade is what's looking the 79 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 4: best at the moment. On the tanker side, you're the 80 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 4: top of the hierarchy. That's the last remaining piece of 81 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 4: the puzzle that hasn't really fired up on all cylinders 82 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 4: yet and now you're finally seeing it with a lot 83 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: of opeic plus controversals finally hitting the markets. We have 84 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,799 Speaker 4: personality hitting them hitting the market. Then you are actually 85 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 4: at that at the seasonal slump. But field zer rates 86 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 4: are actually closing in one hundred thousand dollars a day 87 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 4: now and with more volumes the outlook of more volume 88 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,359 Speaker 4: coming in the next couple of months, I think, you know, 89 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 4: the risky world is pretty good, and geopolitically as well, 90 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 4: you potentially have the you know, with say, for instance, 91 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 4: if Russia exports less soil, that would or may push 92 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 4: volumes over to the vlccs from the from the serious 93 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 4: and affrom acxsis. So I think you know, from our 94 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 4: top idea point of view, that's the vl ccs you 95 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:36,559 Speaker 4: want to own in the tanker space at the moment. 96 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 3: Can you name names. 97 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 4: The front line dhd okayis. I think all those names 98 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 4: are are really attractive. And yeah, even after the recent 99 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 4: share rallies and share pricess dividends is really really compelling. 100 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 4: Still you know what you know, if you say the 101 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,679 Speaker 4: rates stay in the mid sixties, you get fifteen percent 102 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 4: divident across the board. 103 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 6: So I think that's pretty good. 104 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 3: And how about you, what are your favorite names in 105 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 3: the space. 106 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 6: Like the VS as well. 107 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 5: But what I'm where I maybe differ a bit from 108 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 5: Frelic is that I believe that product rates will sort of. 109 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 6: Benefit from a strong crude market. 110 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 5: So what is typical the trade now among many is 111 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 5: that you go long crude and then you're maybe short product. 112 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 5: But if you look at the product order book, it's 113 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 5: nineteen percent and crude is twelve. But the l R 114 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 5: twos that's just basically an apromax with coating. So if 115 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 5: those vessels end up in the crew trade, then you're 116 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,799 Speaker 5: suddenly left with the product order book to fleet ratio 117 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 5: of eleven percent, and that's suddenly not that demanding. And 118 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 5: the older sort of best idea we have is CMBT. 119 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 5: It's fifty book exposure, it's thirty percent tank or exposure. 120 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 5: It's an mv net asset value of four billion trading 121 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 5: at the thirty percent discount, So you get sort of 122 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 5: a lot of or quite decent entry points. I mean, 123 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 5: if you look at the crude names now, they're trading 124 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 5: at twenty percent premium, and then you also get a 125 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 5: lot of bank for the book through sixty seven percent NETALTV. 126 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 5: What many of these listed names have spent a lot 127 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 5: of time doing with years is not paying dividends. They 128 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 5: have reduced steps. I mean, you talk to Robot previously 129 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 5: hiss net cash in December, so that is sort of 130 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 5: good from playing the cycle from a long term perspective. 131 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 5: But if you're a shareholder or investor that can go 132 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 5: in and out so in a day of too, then 133 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 5: you could ease little lot of see the usoil of 134 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 5: having quite a lot of leverage, and that's what you're 135 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 5: getting in CMBT. 136 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 2: You guys both you know, spend a lot of your 137 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 2: time talking to the buyside and perspective investors, investors that 138 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 2: are interested in shipping. Is it more institutional long money? 139 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 2: Is it hedge funds who likes to invest in shipping 140 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 2: from an equity standpoint? 141 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that, you know, following the shipping booll 142 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 4: cycle you have now for the past four or five years, 143 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 4: the investor base have increased. So we talked to all 144 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 4: different topic clients without to family officers, institutions, hedge funds. 145 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 4: I think everyone is interested in shipping, and especially now 146 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 4: with the geopolitical backdrop with trade, with tariffs, with everything 147 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 4: that's going on, Shipping is in the middle of everything, 148 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 4: and slide change in tariffs impacts could impact several chipping segments. 149 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 5: Right, So I think interest is really really high and Christopher, 150 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 5: do you have a interest? Is good but also sort 151 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 5: of echoing what you were saying earlier, Hammers, for some funds, 152 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 5: the market cap is sort of it's still too small, 153 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 5: still too little liquidity. So I think sort of interest 154 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 5: would increase. Also further if with sort of further m 155 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 5: and a activity we're seeing potentially Halffney on torn now 156 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 5: that would create the five point five billion dollar market 157 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 5: cap tanker company. So I think these type of events 158 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 5: would be good for the industry and interest. 159 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 6: Right. 160 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 2: So, you know, from my vantage point, shipping is a 161 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 2: pretty commoditized industry for the most part. So when you're 162 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: trying to evaluate stocks within a sub segment that you like, 163 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 2: how do different do you differentiate the stocks? 164 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 3: Start with Efrederick. 165 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, So first of all, you you know, what is 166 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 4: your view on the market, right, that's the basis of everything. 167 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 4: And if you like the market, we usually differentiate the 168 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 4: stocks between you know, the fleet profile, that's one thing. 169 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 4: Age of the fleet, that's another factor. Do they have 170 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 4: a big SPS cycle coming up for instance, that can 171 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 4: you know, increase capex and reduce learning the temporarily. But 172 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 4: I think the most important thing that we have seen 173 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 4: during the past years in shipping is that it's cyclical 174 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 4: by nature, and as an investor, you want your money 175 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 4: back while the times are good, So high paying dividend 176 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 4: stocks is usually rewarded by higher evaluation. 177 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 3: In Christopher, do. 178 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 2: You how do you kind of evaluate names within a 179 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 2: sub segment. 180 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 5: I think it's the same approach, and what we have 181 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 5: seen in recent years is that companies that have a 182 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:55,839 Speaker 5: high distribution policy pay a lot of the EPs and dividends. 183 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 5: They tend to trade at premium. You see that now 184 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 5: in the tanker space. But that could also create a 185 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 5: bit of interesting situations like staying at least in our space, 186 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 5: that's the most discounted name and they have the youngest fleet. 187 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 6: They are now net cash in at. 188 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 5: Least on our figures in Q one and with no 189 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:29,439 Speaker 5: material cappex apart from special surveys. That should be a 190 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:33,439 Speaker 5: catalyst for an update the distribution polls. 191 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 2: Here and you know we heard from the credit panel Earlier, 192 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 2: they were more focused on the liner market within your coverage. 193 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 2: You know, how do you view the container and liner 194 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 2: market from an equity standpoint, Christopher, if you want to 195 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 2: lead off. 196 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 5: I think it's a bit difficult with the container market 197 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:59,719 Speaker 5: now because the liners they seem to sort of this 198 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 5: agree with all the analysts sort of market experts out there, 199 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 5: because they are. 200 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 6: In the market and shortering. 201 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 5: Tonnage at sort of all time high levels and box 202 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 5: rates are falling month by month. So there's a huge 203 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:22,839 Speaker 5: disconnect now between what the liners are willing to pay 204 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 5: and what they are getting paid. 205 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 6: Basically, so. 206 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 5: I have a cell recommendation on the liner company I cover, 207 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 5: but hold on the tonnage provider. And that's basically because 208 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 5: I see a lot of earnings risk on the liners. 209 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 6: But for the tonnage providers, they are I mean they're. 210 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 5: Trading more or less at the discounted value of the 211 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 5: EBITA backlog plus scrap. I mean, I mean there's a 212 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 5: lot of optionality value there and I don't see sort 213 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 5: of any real risk there either. 214 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, we're are some of the talentge providers. 215 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,719 Speaker 5: I mean in or slow, it's NPC container ships that's 216 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 5: most relevant. 217 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 4: Y gotcha, Yeah, I can just echo what you say 218 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 4: on the liner side. You are now the the European 219 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 4: contract renegotiation period is approaching quickly. You have seen raids 220 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 4: coming down. I think there's a there's an obvious risk 221 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 4: to estimate in heading into next year. And if you 222 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 4: look at the name like like MRSK for instance, like 223 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 4: this year is training at three point five times ev 224 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 4: t bitar might sound cheap, but if you just extract, 225 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 4: do some calculations on what are the rates now, what 226 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 4: would you likely recontract those rates app for into next year? 227 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 4: And on our estimates you do go from a nine 228 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 4: billion libitar this year to five billion next year and 229 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 4: then that's seven times dbitar. Right, So I'm just like Christopher, 230 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 4: I have a Cellar recommendation, and I believe I believe 231 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:53,679 Speaker 4: MURSK is actually screening as a very good short at 232 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 4: the moment due to that because it's screening cheap today 233 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 4: and they have the buyback program which creates a bit 234 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 4: but over time, I think gravity. 235 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 6: Will work on the stock. Is a good point. 236 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 5: I think many investors get lost in the ed e 237 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 5: bit tum multiples there. But if you look at price 238 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 5: to earnings we're at like around fifteen times or current 239 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 5: air So I don't find that really really attractive at 240 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 5: least given backdrop. 241 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 3: And you do you either of you have sales and 242 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 3: anything else that you under your under your coverage. 243 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 4: I have a Sealon car carriers, so that's more of 244 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 4: the same. Actually, you have this huge order book I 245 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 4: think now just about thirty percent. You will see high 246 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 4: fleet growth this year, next year and twenty twenty seven. 247 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 4: You have seen export of cars basically flattening out in Korea, Japan, Germany. 248 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 4: You still have growth in China, but you have seen 249 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 4: several countries, with the Mexico being the most recentable one, 250 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 4: increasing their tariffs on Chinese bold cars. And I think 251 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 4: part of the reason why that Chinese exports have been 252 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 4: growing much more on the relative compared to Japan, Korea 253 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 4: and germanists due to the fact that they have most 254 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 4: likely seen what's coming on the tariffs. You know, Mexico 255 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 4: is one of the single biggest importers of Chinese cars, 256 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 4: mostly ice cars actually not evs. But so I think 257 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 4: that you know, with those tariffs now coming into the plane, 258 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 4: the next couple of couple of months and quarters you 259 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 4: will see Chinese exports coming down as well because you 260 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 4: don't have the sales growth on the car side globally 261 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 4: to support as continued high growth of exports. So I 262 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 4: think the Chinese have actually just been stopping up inventories 263 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 4: across several big countries in the world and within the terraffs. 264 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 2: In the tariffs the US arrets, have they impacted that 265 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 2: industry as well. 266 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's not on the Chinese side. The US 267 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 4: practically doesn't import Chinese cars, but it's obvious impact on 268 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 4: Japanese Koreen and the German cars. So I think that 269 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 4: if you look at the backlog of the of the 270 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 4: companies we cover, Hook and the Valenius, you have a 271 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 4: sale on sell on both of them. It's just you 272 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 4: have a contract backlog with the fixed price per vehicle 273 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 4: that you transport, but the volume is variable. So that's 274 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 4: our take that we relead the volume will be lower, 275 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 4: so you don't get one hundred percent utilization of your contract. 276 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 4: And that's where we differ from from most of the consensus. 277 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 4: But as the consensus is actually a whole recommendation now 278 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 4: across that across that segments. 279 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 3: Okay and Christopher within your coverage. 280 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 2: I guess the more protectionist policies coming out of the US, 281 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 2: what companies have been impacted the most, and in which 282 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 2: are you feel an't going to feel the brand going forward? 283 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 2: In terms of tariffs, Yeah, teriffs. 284 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 5: It's obviously containers, which is most directly are most directly exposed. 285 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 5: But could see an interesting situation I had with the 286 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 5: USDRS which are soon coming into place, could easily create 287 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 5: a tier one tier two market. And I mean at 288 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 5: first it looked really bad for shipping, but then it 289 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 5: has been a lot of exemptions and sort of US 290 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 5: understood that there needs to be a lot of exemptions 291 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 5: because they are suddenly net exporkers of molecules, so it 292 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 5: wouldn't make sense to sort of impose a lot of 293 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 5: tariffs on the commodities that they are selling. But that 294 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 5: is an uncertainty ahead on how that's going to play out. 295 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,239 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you're actually starting to see that now, 296 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,360 Speaker 4: especially on the VGC side. See the spread between raised 297 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 4: and East and West are actually widened lately because the 298 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 4: Chinese operates owned and operated Tonaea balaced into the Middle East. 299 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 5: So it's there are fifty blgcs that are owned by 300 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 5: Chinese sentities and they will end up getting these port fits. 301 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 5: So and that represents two and a half percent of 302 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 5: the BLGC fits. 303 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 6: So naturally you will get. 304 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 5: I mean, over time, these two markets correlate very well, 305 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 5: and we'll probably do so. But you will probably get 306 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 5: some pockets from time to time where Middle East loadings 307 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 5: are at quite a discount to us. 308 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,479 Speaker 2: So I can't talk shipping without talking about emissions. So 309 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 2: you know, in your coverage universe, how do you think 310 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 2: the road to you know, twenty fifty zero emissions is 311 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 2: going to be met from your vantage point? 312 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 3: If Frederick, if you want to start us off at that. 313 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, it's a different, difficult question. But I 314 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 4: think that you will see several You will need to 315 00:18:55,680 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 4: have a wide cooperation between several institutions. Basically you will 316 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 4: need to get new serial mission fuels into the fleet, 317 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 4: but you also need to have bunkering and availability of that. 318 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 4: And if you take ammonia as an example, the energy 319 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 4: density of an ammonia molecules are much much lower than 320 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 4: bunkering oil. So if you just bunker up with ammonia 321 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 4: you can you can't sail as long as you can 322 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 4: with with with the regular bunkering, right, so you need 323 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 4: to have newer hubs, for example at the Cape or 324 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 4: a Namibia in Africa to serve that as a middle 325 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 4: middle bunkering vantage point, which you don't have today. But 326 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 4: I think that's part of it, and still is someone 327 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 4: uncertain dias on what fuel is going to be be 328 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 4: the future. 329 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 3: Fool Christopher, do you do you have any thoughts on that? 330 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,919 Speaker 2: And also just you know, as a follow up, do 331 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 2: you think those goals are attainable? 332 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 5: It doesn't seem like it. And the first thing or 333 00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 5: the big boat upcoming is m a PC and let's 334 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 5: see what outcome there is. But it's difficult, right because 335 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 5: sixty two percent of all vessels being built now are 336 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 5: Chinese and energy seems like a decent solution at least 337 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 5: in sort of medium term. But if you opt for 338 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 5: LERG bunkering or dual fool engines, let's say on the 339 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 5: LCC with where many of the loadings are actually out 340 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 5: of the US, then if you're have a Chinese tonnachers 341 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 5: only being taxed with three million dollars per port visit 342 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 5: just to bunker. So I think there's a lot of 343 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:55,360 Speaker 5: uncertainty around this and I mean you can just look 344 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 5: at the listed owners. Very few there to do anything 345 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 5: now because there's so much much Johnston. 346 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 4: To Ye and vessels should operate for twenty twenty five years, right, 347 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 4: and twenty five years from a twenty fifty. 348 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 5: So and our clients they care about next twelve months. 349 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 5: So it's not something I spent a lot of time 350 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 5: on really. 351 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 2: So twenty twenty five is almost done. Looking into twenty 352 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 2: twenty six. You know, Christopher, what are you most optimistic 353 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 2: about as it relates to shipping in your universe? 354 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 5: It's triable and tankers. I think we went through sort 355 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 5: of supply the mountain there. But it's also important to 356 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 5: sort of talk about the age profile of especially the 357 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 5: tanker fleet, which just extremely unique. The average age of 358 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 5: the fleet is fourteen years. It's the highest since two thousand. 359 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 5: If you just look at the number of vessels that 360 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 5: are above twenty years of age, we're at twenty percent 361 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 5: now and just factoring in the order book through twenty 362 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 5: twenty eight, you're about one thirds of the fleet will 363 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,880 Speaker 5: be basically ready to scrap. So there's a massive renewal 364 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 5: potential and that should provide a lot of downside production 365 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 5: and that goes also for Drybalk. 366 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 3: And Frederick. 367 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 2: Do you have anything to add on that in terms 368 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 2: of what you're optimistic about in twenty twenty six. 369 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there's several reasons to be optimistic, especially 370 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 4: on Drybalk. You see several factors in that we follow 371 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 4: use that usually leads the drybook markets that have turned 372 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 4: positive for next year, especially the credit growth in China. 373 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 4: They have actually had a very It's a massive stimulus 374 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 4: if you just exclude a trillion of dollars that was 375 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 4: stimulated in the European and American economies during COVID. If 376 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 4: exclude that, the stimulus in China most recently is pretty 377 00:22:56,040 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 4: pretty meaningful. Another factor is that has been hurting the 378 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 4: drybook market a bit is that you had an inventory. 379 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:05,640 Speaker 6: Joining cycle of iron ore in China. 380 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 4: You see some signs now that that the iron or 381 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 4: consumption is coming up in ports have also naturally also 382 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 4: come up. As a results, inventories are flattening out and 383 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 4: on an absolutely, on an absolute and relative basis, the 384 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 4: inventory levels of iron ore is actually low in China 385 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,959 Speaker 4: compared to other commodities, so I think there's a lot 386 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 4: of room to build inventories there in the next year, 387 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 4: especially considering that the dollar as weekend and the iron 388 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 4: ore price is flatish so far this year, so it's 389 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 4: cheaper to buy in iron or now than before. And 390 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 4: another facet of that is is the the global GDP 391 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 4: growth it's been hiked by IMF for next year. That 392 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,120 Speaker 4: is highly correlated naturally with with dry book and grab 393 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 4: book trade. And you have the joker on the side 394 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 4: being Simon dou the West African mining project in Guinea, 395 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 4: which I think when it comes online and when it 396 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 4: wraps up, it will sock up a lot of tom miles. 397 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 4: It will go at the cost of some tom iron 398 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 4: ore in other ports, but it's mostly tote mild positive regardless. 399 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 4: So then you have a situation where you don't really 400 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:22,199 Speaker 4: need that big govern the mangals to get meaningful tom mindoth. 401 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 4: So so we are, you know, seeing several reasons to 402 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 4: be positive. And I echo what you said about CMB. 403 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 4: It's a very good drybook exposure, pristine drybook fleet, especially 404 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 4: on the bigger sizes. And apart from that, we you know, 405 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 4: I think Starbuck is a good name. It some very 406 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 4: liquid liquid name to trade, good dividend policy, share barback policy, 407 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 4: and then of course humane airshipping we think is perfectly 408 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 4: positioned to take advantage of this. 409 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 2: And then on the flip side, Frederick, you can start 410 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 2: off like, so, what's going to be the biggest challenge 411 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 2: in your view in twenty twenty six per shipping? 412 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 4: I think the biggest channel is obviously geopolitical situations. You 413 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,640 Speaker 4: have the Red Sea that has been beneficial on tom 414 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 4: miles for several segments. Doesn't seem like that will resolve 415 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 4: in time soon, but it's a big, big risk. And 416 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:16,760 Speaker 4: another risk is, especially for tankers, would so happened in 417 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 4: at the end of last year when rate's disappointed seasonally 418 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 4: basically due to the arbitrush between the West coming down, 419 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,880 Speaker 4: and if something happens that hurts at arbitrash, you get 420 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,880 Speaker 4: lower toll miles on the tanker side. 421 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 2: In Christopher, what do you see the biggest risk for 422 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six for shipping? 423 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 5: Obviously China is ski here, they're massive importal on all segments. 424 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 6: But I mean. 425 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 5: The biggest risk is recession that will hurt all shipping segments. 426 00:25:54,200 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 5: But as is a downside protection here, especially on the 427 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 5: drive ball side, is that if you look at this 428 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 5: Cimonde project it's sixty five percent fee content on the 429 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 5: iron ore. If you look at domestic production of iron 430 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 5: ore in China, you can sort of estimate that the 431 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 5: fee content is around sixty percent, So it makes sense 432 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 5: for them to import rather than produce domestically. So I 433 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 5: think Driverball could look good even if sort of you 434 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 5: don't get a lot of stimulus in China. 435 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,879 Speaker 2: And are either of you surprise is not more consolidating 436 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 2: going on because you both mentioned like market cap is 437 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 2: an issue for you know, some investors when they're looking 438 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 2: at shipping, and you know, I'm sure that executives are 439 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:47,959 Speaker 2: very shipping companies are well aware of that. So are 440 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 2: you surprised they're not, you know, looking to consolidate. 441 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 5: I mean, we have seen a big emergery this year 442 00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 5: with CMBT and gold Nose. We're now seeing potentially half 443 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:09,200 Speaker 5: they on TORM. We did see Starbucks by an eagle, 444 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 5: so it's not like we're not seeing consolidation. So but 445 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 5: at it depends a sort of when the price is worth, 446 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,159 Speaker 5: owners are willing to. 447 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,399 Speaker 6: To sort of to maybe lower their exposure. 448 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 5: We could see further consolidation, but there's a lot of 449 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 5: ship owners behind these companies, and that's making this M 450 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 5: and A activity a bit difficult from time to time 451 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 5: because you could always say what the company is worth 452 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 5: on a steel basis, and that's not that easy on 453 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:46,640 Speaker 5: other type of companies. 454 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 4: That yeah, I think, especially in dry book is I 455 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 4: think more The opposite is is room for for more companies. 456 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,920 Speaker 4: I think you should have some IPOs actually on the 457 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,159 Speaker 4: dry box side, continuing the backdrop and considering you know 458 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 4: that you have room for another big company. 459 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,679 Speaker 2: All right, so we're wrapping up, and it's funny hear 460 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 2: each year's best idea and the upside on that idea. 461 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 2: So christerpher if you want to start us off. 462 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,959 Speaker 5: So we can go for staying now we have target 463 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 5: seventy seven dollars per share. I think it will be 464 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 5: a big trigger with them reaching net cash in Q one, 465 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 5: paying models Stivedan now but lagging Peers a lot trading 466 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 5: at thirty percent discount two pairs in the space. So 467 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 5: so I think that will be an interesting play over 468 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 5: the coming six months. 469 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 4: All right, Frederick, I would have to go with him 470 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 4: alea huge operation and financial leverage on the cap rids 471 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 4: for next year. So I think, you know, even on 472 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 4: today's rates, you're yealing fifteen to sixteen percent and realized, 473 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 4: which so you don't even need to move to get 474 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 4: the decent return. So if rig really move on, things 475 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 4: really take off. Next there you have a pretty compelling 476 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 4: ecity story. 477 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 1: All right, I want to thank Frederick and Christopher for 478 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 1: their time and insights. I also want to thank you 479 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: for tuning in. If you liked the episode, please subscribe 480 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 1: and leave a review. We've lined up a number of 481 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: great guests for the podcast, so please check back to 482 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 1: hear conversations with C suite executives, shippers, regulators, and decision 483 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: makers within the freight markets. Also, if you want to 484 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 1: learn more about the freight transportation markets, check out our 485 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 1: work on the Bloomberg terminal at big and on social media. 486 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 1: This is Lee Glasgal signing off and thanks for talking 487 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: transports with me. Talk to you next week.