1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 2: Everybody. It is Friday, June twenty fourth, and this is 3 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 2: your UFC betting preview. It is a great main event 4 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: that we're going to touch on. We have a lot 5 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 2: to get to. 6 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 3: Main event. 7 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 2: Favorite Underdog plays the fight of the night from our 8 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: two analysts coming up favorite props, a DFS Outlook and 9 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: also best bets. Billy Ward, former MMA fighter. He is 10 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 2: our MMA analyst at the Action Network. Also, Sean Zarilla, 11 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 2: one of our senior writers, also does a great job 12 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: following you MMA. So we're looking forward to a great 13 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 2: fight in Vegas this weekend. The main event is highlighted 14 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 2: by armand Zerukian taking on Mattaeus Gamrot. Billy, you have 15 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 2: a play on the main event for us here to 16 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 2: get us started. 17 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 4: The biggest thing that I'm interested in is this one 18 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 4: to end inside the distance. It's more or less a 19 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 4: toss up. I'm looking at minus one twenty now, but 20 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 4: both guys have finishing ability wherever this fight goes. You know, 21 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 4: we can steem getting finishes on the ground. They both 22 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 4: have really strong wrestling backgrounds, but they both throw a 23 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:24,759 Speaker 4: lot of strikes and are doing that at. 24 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: A fairly high level as well. 25 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 4: But the biggest thing is just we haven't seen either 26 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 4: of them go five rounds in the UFC, and I 27 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 4: don't know how often we see main events where it's 28 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 4: the first five round fight for both fighters, and I 29 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 4: just think the chances of one, if not both of 30 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 4: them kind of running out of steam late in the 31 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 4: fight is higher than the markets are giving it credit for. 32 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 4: And you know, to that end, if I was going 33 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 4: to better side, I think i'd go, sorry, you can 34 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 4: in the distance. Inside the distance, I know Sean's on 35 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 4: the opposite side of that. That's not a real strong 36 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 4: take for me, So if anyone's tailing, I'd highly suggest 37 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 4: we listen to Sean's take on that before we pick 38 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 4: a side. But I really do like inside the distance. 39 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: Twenty five minutes is just a long time for these guys. 40 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 4: We haven't seen him do it a lot, and if 41 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 4: they're going to wrestle at the pace they normally do, 42 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 4: that's really really taxing and somebody could run out of 43 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:08,959 Speaker 4: gas here. You know, there's a reason wrestling matches in 44 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 4: the Olympics for six or seven minutes and boxing matches 45 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 4: go thirty five to thirty six, because you know, Russell 46 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 4: just takes a lot more out of you. So if 47 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 4: these guys are going to do that, I don't see 48 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 4: how they make it all twenty. 49 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 2: Five Zarrilla, what's your angle on this lightweight fight? 50 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, so Seruki, and this is his first round fight, 51 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 5: but Gambrot is a KSW veteran former champion, and he 52 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 5: actually has been five rounds on multiple occasions over in 53 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 5: KSW and has proven that he's actually better in twenty 54 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 5: five minute fights as opposed to fifteen minute fights. He 55 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 5: tends to build as a fight goes a little bit 56 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 5: of a slower starter. His one career loss came in 57 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 5: the UFC by split decision against my favorite bet for 58 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 5: last week around Kutatal odds, and it was a close 59 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 5: fight because he is a bit as a close starter, 60 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 5: and he was used to coming off of five round 61 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 5: fights from that Polish promotion and didn't necessarily have the 62 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 5: tempo that he needed for the fifteen minute fight early 63 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 5: on in that fight. So, like Billy said, this should 64 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 5: be a very high paced fight. Tons of wrestling, scrambles, grappling. 65 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 5: When they're on the feet, they should be throwing strikes 66 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 5: at high volume. And I think it's going to be 67 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 5: very close and competitive. You know, this line is actually 68 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 5: kind of crazy to me, given that skill discrepancy between 69 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 5: the two guys. I don't disagree with Serukian being favored. 70 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 5: He had a phenomenally close fight with Islam Makachev that 71 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 5: I'm sure they will rematch down the line, and I 72 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 5: view both of these guys as future title contenders, if 73 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 5: not future champions, so this may be the first of 74 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 5: two or even three fights that we see between these two. 75 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 5: I expect them the rematch for a belt somewhere down 76 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 5: the line. The skills are very close skill for skill, 77 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 5: both fantastic wrestlers. I might even make Gamroth the better striker, 78 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 5: but Serukian has been in there with Makachev, which is 79 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 5: why I think people view him as a more significant 80 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 5: favorite because they haven't seen Gamrot maybe against this high 81 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 5: level competition, but Gamroz has the better UFC wins in 82 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 5: my opinionion Serukian has finishes of late on his record. 83 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 5: I don't necessarily see him as a big finisher though, 84 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 5: and Gamrod has proven extremely durable, very difficult to put away. 85 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 5: I said, his one blemish is a loss by split decision. 86 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 5: If this goes five rounds, Serukian is going to be 87 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 5: the one who's in deep water so the first time, 88 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 5: so the late rounds may actually be to Gamrat's benefit. 89 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 5: That's that Surukin doesn't really strike me as a guy 90 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 5: who's going to struggle to get the cardio for the 91 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 5: full twenty five minutes. He is a big guy, he 92 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 5: tends to muscle a lot of his techniques, but I 93 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 5: think this is going to be a highly highly competitive 94 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 5: fight for twenty five minutes unless one of them finishes 95 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 5: at first. So Gamrod at plus two to forty is 96 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 5: the money line side for me. I ended up playing 97 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,720 Speaker 5: him on the money line because I think the odds 98 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 5: should be closer probably to plus one fifty maybe forty 99 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 5: percent at worst. And I actually did bet the fight 100 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 5: to go to a decision as well, which seems crazy 101 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,359 Speaker 5: given the pace that we expect, and I might be 102 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 5: wrong on that one. But if it does go the 103 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 5: full twenty five and Serrukian sees his hand raised, I 104 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 5: want to basically have a hedge off of my Gamrock position. 105 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 5: So at worst, I'm hoping for a push here and 106 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 5: a Serroukie decision. But I think Gamrot is certainly the 107 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 5: money line side at plus two forty. 108 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 2: Okay, And speaking of underdogs, and Sean maps out he 109 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 2: does this with every sport. You know, he's all about price, 110 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 2: and that's that's an important angle that he mentions there. 111 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 2: It's not just about the actual fighter, but he just 112 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 2: feels the price jumps out. So Sean will we'll keep 113 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 2: it with you and we move to favorite underdogs. You've 114 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 2: got a plus money prop you want to weigh in them? 115 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, Gamaran is my favorite underdog on the cart. And 116 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 5: I have some fighters who I picked around coin flip prices, 117 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 5: you know, pick them prices. But I'm going to go 118 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 5: ahead and give out a plus money prop here on 119 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 5: Siaga Moyst's by decision at plus two forty. It's still 120 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 5: around plus two hundred out there. I projected this line 121 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 5: at plus one forty, so roughly a seven to ten 122 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 5: percent edge depending on the number where you're betting it. 123 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 5: He should take over rounds two and three of this 124 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 5: fight against Christs. Gago's at a pretty high clip. Gago 125 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 5: says about five to seven minutes of Cardio on him. 126 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 5: He's a good wrestler, but by wrestling, he tends to 127 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 5: tire himself out rather quickly. Moyses fights at a lower pace, 128 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 5: doesn't throw a ton of strikes, which is always the 129 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 5: concern because he's not really going to put a stamp 130 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 5: on his fights or pull away to a drastic degree. 131 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 5: But it's a bad matchup for Giagos in my opinion 132 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 5: because Moysis is a very good grappler. Grappling is his 133 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 5: primary skill. I vie him as the better striker two 134 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 5: even though it doesn't put out a ton of volume, 135 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 5: but grappling. 136 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: Is his primary skill. 137 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 5: You saw Isla Makachev struggle to get to dominant positions 138 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 5: against him. Took him four rounds to finish him, which 139 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 5: is longer than it's taken Mikachev to get to dominant 140 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 5: positions against a lot of fighters. So see this going 141 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 5: to decision at a high clip like moiss A, is 142 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 5: a live bet after round one. Don't love his pre 143 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,359 Speaker 5: fight minding line price at a round minus two forty, 144 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 5: but live after round one you should be able to 145 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 5: get a better price, and then rounds two and three 146 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 5: he should win at a much higher clip than he 147 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 5: wins a round one. So moys is by decision plus 148 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 5: two forty. You could also take a look at the 149 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 5: fight to go to a decision at around a pick 150 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 5: um price. 151 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 2: Shot those lines as we encourage across the books to 152 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 2: get a good underdog price. Billy, where did you land? 153 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:07,679 Speaker 4: Speaking of line shopping, this is a really good example 154 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 4: of one where we've seen a lot of movement on 155 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 4: this one. And I'm looking at Vanessa Demopolis. She was 156 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 4: about two thirty plus two forty earlier in the week 157 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 4: and is down to plus one ninety five. Now, just 158 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 4: for anyone who's betting these, I've noticed a trend where 159 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 4: FanDuel seems to be a little bit slower to move 160 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 4: the lines on that when you see other things. So 161 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 4: you know, if you're coming in late to some of 162 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 4: these markets, that would be my first look. But definitely, 163 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 4: you know, shop where you can get it the best number. 164 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 4: But yeah, this is Demopolis's third UFC fight. She's one 165 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 4: in one. She's fighting jin U Fray who's two and two, 166 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 4: you know, very similar, which is why her being such 167 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 4: a big underdog doesn't make a ton of sense to me. 168 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 4: Neither of them have particularly impressive resumes. It's, you know, truthfully, 169 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 4: one of the lower level fights you're going to see, 170 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 4: And I get that Fray is coming off two wins, 171 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 4: but the two people she fought beat are now eight 172 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 4: and eight as a professional and six and five as 173 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 4: a professional. 174 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 3: They're not great wins. 175 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 4: Frey is the only person to lose the UFC fight 176 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 4: to kay Hanson in which she got some and Demopolis 177 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 4: is the Brazilian jury to black Belt. 178 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 3: So I think the case for Frey is. 179 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 4: That Demopolis is going to have a hard time getting 180 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 4: it to the ground, but once she does, she's just 181 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 4: a significantly better grappler. Demopolis is also younger, and she 182 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 4: wasn't even a full time fighter until her last training camp. 183 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 4: So if we're looking at who can be getting better 184 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 4: at this point in her career, a thirty three year 185 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 4: old who just started fighting full time or a thirty 186 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 4: seven year old who's probably in the twilight of her career, 187 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 4: I just see a lot more progression on the Vanessa 188 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 4: Demopolis side, and i'd better down to about plus one 189 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 4: seventy five. It's gotten away from us a little bit here, 190 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 4: but I still think she's a really good value at 191 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 4: one ninety five. 192 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 5: So I just want to comment real quick. I actually 193 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 5: like Demopolis's finished props or inside the distance prop is 194 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 5: plus six hundred, and her submission prop is plus eight hundred. 195 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 5: I think a submission is a very high percentage of 196 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 5: her win probability. The market's telling you it's around forty percent. 197 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 5: I would say it's closer to fifty or sixty percent 198 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 5: of her probability. So Demopolis inside the distance, those juicy 199 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 5: props is where I put my money. Small allocation, but 200 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 5: I think a lot of potential payoff. 201 00:08:58,640 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: Let's go to the fight of the night. 202 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 2: Us Vieira is the is the fight that we're going 203 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 2: to focus on here. In terms of the fight of 204 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 2: the night, it's close. I mean, look, it's a great card. 205 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 2: Six fights on the main card. Again, you can find 206 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 2: all these on ESPN plus very close as of right now. 207 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 2: In the money line, Curtis the favorite at minus one thirty. Billy, 208 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 2: what is your angle on this fight? 209 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a tricky one. I mean, first of all, 210 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 4: it had to be fighter of the night when we 211 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 4: have Chris the Action Man Curtis on the Action Network podcast. 212 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 3: That was just a no brainer. 213 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,080 Speaker 4: But you know what I was really looking at before 214 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 4: the lines came out as Vieia by submission. But the 215 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 4: best you can get that is about plus one eighty 216 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 4: and it's inside the distance line is plus one seventy 217 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 4: at the highest point, so there's no reason to not take, 218 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 4: you know, that little bit of extra equity on him 219 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 4: winning it with strikes on the ground. But you know, 220 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,439 Speaker 4: we're seeing this fight is a huge favorite to get 221 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 4: stopped inside the distance minus seven to fifty or so. 222 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 4: There's been a little bit of line movement in Viea's way, 223 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 4: but I do think he's the better fighter at this 224 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 4: point in his career. 225 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 3: I love Chris Curtis. 226 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 4: I've met him a couple times, like really good. I 227 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 4: think he's a bit overrated, just based on picking up 228 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 4: a couple quick knockouts in his UFC debut, where Viera 229 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 4: is just such a high level grappler where if he 230 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 4: gets ahold of him at all, I think he's going 231 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 4: to dominate on the ground and I wouldn't be shocked 232 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 4: to see Via just pull guard if he really needs 233 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 4: to to turn this into a grappling match. You know, 234 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 4: neither guy has great cardio, So if you're gonna bet 235 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 4: either side of it, I don't know why you don't 236 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 4: just take the inside the distance line. 237 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 3: You know, the odds of it going to a decision. 238 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 3: They're just silly at this point. 239 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,439 Speaker 4: So with me being on Vieira, I'll take the plus 240 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 4: one seventy instead of betting his money line at one 241 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 4: ten or one fifteen and wherever it's at. 242 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 2: Sean Zarulo, are you excited about Chris Curtis being involved 243 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 2: in a fight of the night? 244 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 3: Oh? 245 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 5: Love Chris Curtis. Chris Curtis is a cool dude and 246 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 5: he has a great story. He's fought twice in one 247 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 5: night after an opponent dropped out. He was he has 248 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 5: a story about eating chicken and waffles after the first 249 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 5: loss and they came to him and said, we need 250 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 5: you to fight again because the opponent for the main 251 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 5: event dropped out and he's like, all right, and you 252 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 5: never got to finish that meal. So he's still looking 253 00:10:58,000 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 5: for that chicken and waffle meal. If anybody could figure 254 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 5: it out. I believe it was at the Mohican Sun. Brendan, 255 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 5: I know you've been there a few times, so maybe 256 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 5: you could help out Chris Curtis figure out that delicious 257 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 5: meal that he was looking forward to eating that he 258 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 5: never got to. 259 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 3: But Johnny Rockets maybe, Yeah. 260 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 5: It's very possible. I think Kudolfo Vira should be the 261 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 5: pre fight favorite. I actually think this line should probably 262 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 5: be flipped because I see him winning round one at 263 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 5: a fairly high clip. Vandolpho does not have a good 264 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 5: gas tank, but he is one of the best submission 265 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 5: grapplers in the world, not just an MMA in the world, 266 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 5: multiple time addc C winner at multiple weight classes. Curtis 267 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 5: has been put in dominant positions in the past that 268 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 5: his PFL fights was mounted, so I could definitely see 269 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 5: Hudolfho getting a quick submission here winning in round one. 270 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 5: Maybe his round one props are worth a look considering 271 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 5: the gas tank isn't great, but once Vieira gets extended 272 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 5: a little bit, he falls off of a cliff with 273 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 5: his cardio. He's a huge dude, definitely cuts a lot 274 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 5: to get down to one eighty five, whereas Curtis used 275 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 5: to be a former welterweight and doesn't cut anything to 276 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 5: fight at one A. Savia should be the stronger guy, 277 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 5: should be the bigger guy, and can Curtis stop the takedowns, 278 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 5: That's that's probably what is what is going to determine 279 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 5: this fight. If he can stop the takedowns, keep this 280 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 5: fight on the feet, keep it at range, I'll probably 281 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 5: either find a knockout or win a decision at a 282 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 5: pretty high clip. I'm curious who if I told Billy 283 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 5: if this fight was going to a decision, if you 284 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 5: could bet decision only props, who he would make the favorite, 285 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 5: because I think Curtis would be probably seventy seventy five 286 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 5: percent to win a decision if this goes the full 287 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 5: fifteen minutes. If Vieira is getting to the type of 288 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 5: positions he needs to where he's going to win the fight, 289 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 5: he's probably going to finish it by subvision. But if 290 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,439 Speaker 5: this extends, if this goes the full fifteen minutes, I 291 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 5: think Curtis is a very likely winner on the scorecards, 292 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 5: especially in rounds two and round three. So actually, do 293 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 5: think this line to go to a decision is gotten 294 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 5: out of hand? Like Billy said, the odds say it 295 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 5: should be about sixteen to seventeen percent. I would make 296 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 5: it closer to twenty percent. So plus four hundred to 297 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 5: go to a decision, or it's telling you that it's 298 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 5: I'm telling you that it's plus four hundred to go 299 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 5: to decision. The market is giving you as plus as 300 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 5: high as plus five hundred. So I bet the fight 301 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 5: to go to decision of plus five hundred, just a 302 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 5: quarter unit, and then Chris Curtis to win by a 303 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 5: decision at ten to one, I think is an insane price. 304 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,679 Speaker 5: I would make that number probably closer to plus five hundred. Billy, 305 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,079 Speaker 5: if I was just telling you this was going to 306 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 5: your decision, would you put Curtis around seventy percent? Where 307 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 5: would you like set the percentage? 308 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 3: I don't think that high. 309 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 4: I just think Viera could do enough in the early rounds, 310 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:30,319 Speaker 4: especially in the smaller cage. I don't know how well 311 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 4: Curtis is gonna be able to keep the range. So 312 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 4: is it possible that he dominates round one? Round two 313 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 4: is close? I could see that I could see Viera 314 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 4: getting on top early in round two. So I'd probably 315 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 4: put it sixty ish percent if I had to say, 316 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 4: knowing that it goes to a decision, what it would 317 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 4: be for Curtis. But you know, we can also think 318 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 4: that maybe at this point four or five UFC fights 319 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 4: in his Vieria worked on his cardio. Has he made 320 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 4: it a little bit better? Has he, you know, rethought 321 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 4: his game plan? You'd certainly hope, so I don't want 322 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 4: to bet on that by any stretch, but you'd certainly 323 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 4: hope at this point in this career he's starting to 324 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 4: figure those things out a little bit better. 325 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, he looked a little bit more calculated in his 326 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 5: last fight and pulled off a round three submission which 327 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 5: actually surprised me and definitely showed that he was managing 328 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 5: his gas tank. 329 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 3: A little bit better. 330 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,079 Speaker 5: But I would probably still look at a Curtis Libett 331 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 5: after round one, just given his pensions for you know, 332 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 5: coming back late in fights. But yeah, I think I 333 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 5: think from a pre fight perspective, Viera should probably be 334 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 5: the favorite. 335 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 3: Okay, looking forward to it. 336 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 2: That is slated for later in the night on Saturday, 337 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 2: so that should be fun. Let's go now to the 338 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: prop market. When we look around, Billy, where did you 339 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 2: land on in the prop market? 340 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking at Carlos Oldberg. 341 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 4: Where's taffon Ninchruck Wei to go to a decision at 342 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 4: plus one fifty two and a little bit of a 343 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 4: sprinkle on Nuinchuck Wei to win that decision? 344 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 3: But you know, we've seen both. 345 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 4: Guys get knocked out in recent fights. But Olberg in 346 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 4: particular was just extremely cautious his last time around. I 347 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 4: think if he's going to fight like that, it's just 348 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 4: going to be like a you know, real gentle, We're 349 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 4: just trying to touch each other up jab and straight matched. 350 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 4: These are both guys with real long res and Olberg 351 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 4: usually has the advantage of most of his fights, but 352 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 4: it's even against ninchruck We hear. I also think ninchuck 353 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 4: We has all of the grappling upside. I don't think 354 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 4: he has much, but I think he has all of it. 355 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 4: So if he gets hurt, he's probably likely, especially in 356 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 4: the small cage, to grab a hold of Olberg shove 357 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 4: him against the. 358 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 3: Fence kind of wall install. 359 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 4: So just given the you know, the lack of knockdowns 360 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 4: we've seen out of these guys, Taffan has one in 361 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 4: four UFC fights. Olberg hasn't picked up any. I know 362 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 4: he's a high level kickboxer. I just think with the 363 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 4: little gloves and everything that's going on, he's going to 364 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 4: play it a little cautious, and if he is able 365 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 4: to hurt taff On, Taffan I'll probably grab on and 366 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 4: slow this fight down. So getting that at plus one 367 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 4: fifty two seems like a really good line to me. 368 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 5: So we talked about the main event where I see 369 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 5: two future title challengers or champions of Betaios Gamrat and 370 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 5: Urvin Serukian. And then in the prelims and the undercard, 371 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 5: I see two potential future champions in Shopcott rockmanof at 372 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 5: walter wait and Umar and nurmaga Metov at bantam weight. 373 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 5: I think these guys are both tremendous. Shop cut one 374 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 5: hundred percent finish rate in his career fifteen for fifteen 375 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 5: his odds to win inside distance or minus one thirty five. 376 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 5: I made that line closer to minus one seventy. And 377 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 5: then Nermagametov his odds win inside of the distance or minus 378 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 5: one forty. I made that line closer to minus one ninety. 379 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 5: Nate man s doesn't really like to grapple, and Umer 380 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 5: will definitely force the grappling. Neil Magnia, a very established welterweight. 381 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 5: Tend to bet him, especially at underdog prices, and this 382 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 5: line has maybe gotten a little bit crazy. But both 383 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 5: of these lines are a little bit crazy, and either 384 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 5: guy is going to pay off their price, They're going 385 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 5: to have to finish the fight in order to do it. 386 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 5: So Shavcott and Umar both went inside the distance at 387 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 5: minus one thirty five and minus one forty respectively, compared 388 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 5: to my projected odds. 389 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 3: I think they're both valued. 390 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 2: Move on to the DFS side of things again, there's 391 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 2: a lot to choose from. You get the six fights 392 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 2: on the main card, of course, but there's more to 393 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 2: it than that when you look at the DFS side 394 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 2: of things, looking at the DraftKings contest right now, Billy 395 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 2: and this is Billy's wheelhouse, as we tend to say here, 396 00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 2: and then Sean kind of weighs in afterwards, But what 397 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 2: kind of when it comes to cash games or GPPs, 398 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 2: is there anything that's that's in alignment on both fronts 399 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 2: in terms of how you might want to go constructing 400 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:09,400 Speaker 2: a lineup? 401 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Sean teed me up perfectly here with 402 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 4: his prop best because both Umar and Shovcatt they're the 403 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 4: two most expensive fighters at ninety five and ninety three hundred, 404 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 4: but man, they're really strong in any kind of contest types. 405 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 4: Like the lines have gotten so far, it's really hard 406 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 4: to see either of them losing. 407 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 3: So there's a lot of cash game safety. You know. 408 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 4: Sean just said he likes both of their inside the 409 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 4: distance props, even though those are both at minus odds. 410 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 3: So those are gonna be really hard to avoid in DFS. 411 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are probably going to 412 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 4: try to pick between the two of them and many 413 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 4: of their lineups, So you're gonna be a little bit 414 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,719 Speaker 4: unique just jamming both of them in there, especially if 415 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,679 Speaker 4: you also have Saraki and who's pretty expensive. But obviously 416 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 4: that means we've got to find savings somewhere else. So 417 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 4: you know, we've mentioned Hudolfoviira, he's seventy six hundred. I 418 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 4: like him as a salary saver, just because so much 419 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 4: of his win condition is stoppage, and so much of 420 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 4: that is stoppage early. And you know Gamrock Sean mentioned 421 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 4: him as a underdog that he likes. I think Gamrock 422 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 4: could end up up in the optimal lineup even without 423 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 4: winning the fight. We've seen it a couple times in 424 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 4: five round fights, especially with the kind of activity level 425 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 4: these guys will have, and there's only twelve fights on 426 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 4: the card, which raises the odds of doing that. I 427 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 4: believe it was the Cheeto Vera fight against Rob font 428 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 4: where they both ended up in the optal on an 429 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 4: eleven fight card, so I think that's probably a good 430 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:19,439 Speaker 4: way to get a unique on this card to. 431 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,120 Speaker 3: Play both those guys and GPPs. 432 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 4: And then you know, the other cheap fighter I'm looking 433 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 4: at is Vanessa Demopolis. She's kind of like that Sean 434 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 4: Zilla spot where she's very unlikely to get finished, so 435 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 4: even in a bad, bad loss, she could still put 436 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 4: up enough points to not totally tank a cash game lineup, 437 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 4: and given her grappling and finishing upside, she's not a 438 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 4: bad GPP play either. 439 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 5: Probably going to be pretty easy for me to build 440 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 5: DFS lineups this week. Probably gonna build everything around Umer 441 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 5: and Shopcot and then Gamrot and Demopolis on the lower end. 442 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 5: That leaves me with around eighty five hundred and eighty 443 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,159 Speaker 5: six hundred on average for those finalty spots, so I 444 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 5: could play around with my pick them prices. My best 445 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 5: bet that we'll get to in a minute is sitting 446 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 5: in that eighty five hundred range, So from there I 447 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 5: have a lot of money to work with building around 448 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 5: those four fighters. 449 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 2: Okay, good stuff, Billy, As always, we appreciate it. 450 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 3: That's uh. 451 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 2: It's always helpful too, because when we get folks listening 452 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 2: to the pod. You might not be in a sports 453 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 2: gambling legal state, so folks can get in on dfs 454 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 2: and then get there get their fixed that way. Let's 455 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,360 Speaker 2: go to best bets for this UFC fight night it's 456 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,439 Speaker 2: in Vegas this weekend. Billy will start with you. Then 457 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 2: we go to Zerrilla best bets for the weekend. 458 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking on the prelims where we've got Cody 459 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 4: Durton fighting JP Bias. This line's moved a little bit, 460 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 4: but you can still get Durton that even money over 461 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 4: at MGM, at least at the time of recording. And honestly, 462 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,640 Speaker 4: this is more of a bet of just not thinking 463 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 4: JP Bias is that good. 464 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 3: You know, he's been owned to in the UFC. 465 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,880 Speaker 4: He got knocked out, lost to not all that close 466 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 4: decision to Montel Jackson. 467 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:47,640 Speaker 3: Durdan hasn't been great either. 468 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 4: This is a fairly low level fight, you know, by 469 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 4: flyweight standards. But at least he's picked up a win 470 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 4: over or Key Lang, who who's looked fairly decent elsewhere, 471 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 4: and you know he lost a decision or I believe 472 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 4: it was a draw. Sean, I don't know if you 473 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 4: know about Chris Gutier's versus Durdan topology has it as 474 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:05,199 Speaker 4: a draw, but I don't know if that was an 475 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 4: overturned or an original draw, but regardless, had a close 476 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 4: fight with Chris Gutier's. It has been really good since 477 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 4: you got it, Sean. Yeah, it was a draw, okay, 478 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 4: So I mean that looks really good in retrospect. Losing 479 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 4: by flying triangle choke. It's kind of fluky. I'm not 480 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 4: gonna hold that against him too much. And then he 481 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 4: was sacrificed to Mohammed Nokai when they went over to 482 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 4: London the last time. I think Durden might be a 483 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 4: lot better than his resume suggests. And until we see 484 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 4: JP buys win a fight in the UFC, if I 485 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 4: can get plus money on his opponent, I'm gonna keep 486 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 4: running that out. 487 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 2: Okay, Zirilla, take us home. What do you got for 488 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 2: a best bet for the weekend in Vegas? 489 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 5: Yeah, Jorden got a ten eight round one mostly it's 490 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 5: back control, and then lost the final two rounds there. 491 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 5: That's how that ended up a draw. We even seen a. 492 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 3: Draw in the while. 493 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 5: By the way, in the UFC, my favorite bett Sergei 494 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 5: Murzov minus one forty five against Halle and Piva. Piva 495 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,120 Speaker 5: is a bit overrated considering his win over Calor Phillips 496 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 5: probably should have been score to draw. That should have 497 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 5: been a ten to eight round one for Phillips. He 498 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 5: Pivo was almost dead like three times, and Marezov was 499 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 5: minus two thirty in his last fight against Douglas Silvadan 500 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 5: draj Dsda would put Helly and Piva in. 501 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 3: A body peck. 502 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 5: So Marzov going from a minus two thirty favorite against 503 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 5: a established UFC veteran who is way more skilled to Piva, 504 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 5: who got in off a Contender series, had his a 505 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 5: bit of a wonky UFC run, extremely hittable, easy to 506 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 5: take down. I think this is a much easier fight 507 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 5: for Morozov than his last fight was. He was winning 508 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 5: that last fight too against August de Silva, and instead 509 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 5: of deciding to continually grapple, he got in a brawl 510 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 5: and got caught and got hurt and. 511 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 3: Lost the fight. 512 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 5: If he comes out and just decides to wrestle Piva 513 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 5: here for three rounds, he may look like a minus 514 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 5: nine hundred favor. I don't know if Piva is going 515 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 5: to be able to keep him off of him. He's 516 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 5: an excellent wrestler, should be able to make top position 517 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 5: and if not get a submission. Five attends to give 518 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 5: up his back too, so I can see him getting 519 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 5: choked out. But even if they're striking, Rozov is the 520 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,199 Speaker 5: better striker, more durable, even though he's knockout in his 521 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 5: last fight, so is Paiva against Sean O'Malley. Pive is 522 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,199 Speaker 5: just extremely hitable, a big defensive liability, and then on 523 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 5: top of that he is very limited takedown defense. So 524 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 5: I technically projected this line at minus one sixty six. 525 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 5: I think there's plenty of value at minus one forty five. 526 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 5: But seeing this fight play out, particularly if Morozov tries 527 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 5: to grapple, like I said, he may look like a 528 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 5: ninety percent favor by the end of it. 529 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 2: Okay, gents, very good, appreciate the insight, and of course 530 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 2: you want to follow both Zarillo and Billy on the 531 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 2: Action Network app, but you can get analysis and also 532 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,920 Speaker 2: their data, the picks that they log in the app 533 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 2: that get you set for UFC Fight Night, Zerukian the 534 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 2: Gamrod that is the main event, and then some good 535 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 2: stuff on the on the Fight of the Night with 536 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 2: our man Chris Curtis. That is going to conclude today's episode. 537 00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 2: This UFC Fight Night Betting preview on the app Network 538 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 2: podcast for Billy Ward Shawanzarillo, Brendan Glasheen. We will join 539 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,479 Speaker 2: you again next week. We're here every Friday when there 540 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 2: was a fight on a fight Night on Saturday to 541 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 2: get ready for enjoy the action in Vegas and best 542 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 2: of luck. 543 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 3: We'll join you next time.