Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can
Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady back with me,
Speaker 1: Thank goodness, it's whatever. You want to call him. Co
Speaker 1: host whatever. Matt Parral you can find him on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt Matt. I hope you had a
Speaker 1: great Thanksgiving. I apparently we made a couple of people
Speaker 1: mad because we weren't able to get together and do
Speaker 1: our usual show. But how's our holiday? How you doing?
Speaker 2: It? Was great? I'm great. I'm excited for the week.
Speaker 2: I'm glad we took the week off. We dodged a
Speaker 2: bullet and look, I think we predicted it way back
Speaker 2: in the beginning in September when we were kind of
Speaker 2: mapping out what weeks we were going to take off.
Speaker 2: I think it was always trying to take off the
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving Day week and then week seventeen, which is obviously
Speaker 2: the worst week to bet in in the NFL. So
Speaker 2: I think so far, even though we haven't played as
Speaker 2: perfectly as we would have liked, I think as to
Speaker 2: when we took the week off, that was a good
Speaker 2: week to pass and say no thank you.
Speaker 1: Now, just a couple of things to clarify. Number one,
Speaker 1: this one remember you're the other ones, you're in the circa,
Speaker 1: you're super condent. This one only goes through week sixteen,
Speaker 1: so we have to take another bye by week sixteen, so.
Speaker 2: We even week sixteen, I would take off.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, well we'll figure it out. Well, we'll get
Speaker 1: through everything. But yes, you are correct, we did in
Speaker 1: fact move up in the standings by taking a bye week,
Speaker 1: because that's what it was. And there were the weird
Speaker 1: There were a couple of weird things, like the Saints.
Speaker 1: Those lines are locked in, right, so the Saints laying
Speaker 1: six and a half to the Broncos were locked in
Speaker 1: before you realize that the Broncos are going to be
Speaker 1: playing with a a QB. So there were you know,
Speaker 1: a game or two that we probably could have gone.
Speaker 1: But yeah, it was not a good week for anybody
Speaker 1: last week. But let's get into it for this week,
Speaker 1: because interesting you like this slate, don't you miss you do? Huh?
Speaker 2: I have seven games that I would bet.
Speaker 1: All right, well we'll talk about it. I've got I've
Speaker 1: got a few, but I'm not I'm not feeling it
Speaker 1: like crazy, but we'll get into it my usual recommendations
Speaker 1: before we start. Join our discord channel bet Bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com slash Chat totally free. Just come talk about sports
Speaker 1: gambling with other people who are also interested in Also
Speaker 1: check out our prop bet cheat cheat over at bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com. Slash props compares consensus projections to available props
Speaker 1: in the market generally, but also that are in your jurisdiction.
Speaker 1: I'm from New Hampshire. The only place second bet is
Speaker 1: on DraftKings, so when I go there, it shows me
Speaker 1: the available props and the best recommendations for DraftKings props. Third,
Speaker 1: if you want more props, you want more bets, tune
Speaker 1: in make sure Sunday morning YouTube dot com slash betting
Speaker 1: Pros Matt does a livestream eleven am to noon. He
Speaker 1: talks about his best plays, we talk about props. I
Speaker 1: always give him a couple of my props before you.
Speaker 1: On the night before when I do my projections, and
Speaker 1: again that's really what I do. I do projections for
Speaker 1: every player for our fantasy purposes and that really helps
Speaker 1: with prop bets. And on Saturday Night's late night I
Speaker 1: do a big sweep of them. I go through and
Speaker 1: then I take a look at the props. I try
Speaker 1: to give Matt two or three. I think I'm on
Speaker 1: a pretty good streak.
Speaker 2: Can you do projections for every player?
Speaker 1: I do projections for basically every player. I don't go
Speaker 1: crazy with like if I was going to rank somebody
Speaker 1: as the one hundred and fifteenth wide receiver, like, I
Speaker 1: have a projection for them, but I'm not willing to
Speaker 1: like go crazy. But yes, I project every player from
Speaker 1: every game at Oh, how we roll good roll at
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, baby, don't. We don't take anything for granted.
Speaker 1: That is why I'm the seventeenth most accurate Fantasy ranker
Speaker 1: in the nation. That's right, man, I don't know sure.
Speaker 1: That's why I'm up till two in the morning on Saturday.
Speaker 1: It's redoing my projections. It's all for you people.
Speaker 2: I need to get see this is I was talking
Speaker 2: to my producer on the on the on my radio
Speaker 2: show today. Yep, you have not been on my radio
Speaker 2: show yet.
Speaker 1: I know. And it is a big problem in our relationship.
Speaker 1: If you know why I'm salty.
Speaker 2: I need. I need to fix that. So we're gonna
Speaker 2: fix that next week. We're gonna rectify that because I don't.
Speaker 2: It was weird. I was going through and so my
Speaker 2: other two partners in the circuit in the West Gate,
Speaker 2: they do weekly appearances. And like my producer was like,
Speaker 2: so why isn't Dan Harris coming on the show. And
Speaker 2: I was like, you know what, it's a really good point.
Speaker 2: Harris on the show. Right, we'll fix that.
Speaker 1: We will think I haven't noticed that, blah blah, all right,
Speaker 1: you will fix that. So look, last week, like I said,
Speaker 1: we did not play in the DraftKings contest. It was
Speaker 1: our planned week off, but we did move up. So
Speaker 1: we are basically at I will call it in the
Speaker 1: top forty percent. Now, that's not enough to cash. But
Speaker 1: here's the deal. Matt and I are twenty eight and
Speaker 1: twenty seven on the season, so that's fifty point nine
Speaker 1: percent that is not going to do it in terms
Speaker 1: of actually cashing. But if you look right now, Matt
Speaker 1: in the money right now are sixty percent. Now, if
Speaker 1: we essentially what we need to really do, we've got
Speaker 1: fifteen picks left because we've got four weeks. We are
Speaker 1: mandatory one week by so we're going to make three
Speaker 1: more weeks five picks each this will probably be one
Speaker 1: of them. We've got to basically blow it out to
Speaker 1: finish and to finish in the money. But it's probably
Speaker 1: four My guess is uh not? How many? Fourteen and one?
Speaker 1: So we basically can lose probably one game of the
Speaker 1: next three weeks.
Speaker 2: We we now go fourteen and one, We're gonna be
Speaker 2: over sixty percent, aren't we?
Speaker 1: By I don't I think that equals I think that
Speaker 1: equals sixty percent. You out there listening, you check. But
Speaker 1: if we're twenty eight and twenty seven, right, and we
Speaker 1: go fourteen and one, and we're what is that forty
Speaker 1: two and twenty eight? Forty two out of sixty, we're
Speaker 1: gonna do this right now? This is riveting podcasting. Hold
Speaker 1: on forty two out of sixty.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say sixty five percent?
Speaker 1: All right, let's well, maybe math's right. All right? Oh wait,
Speaker 1: you're right. Maybe I'm crazy. Then you're right, maybe that's
Speaker 1: way more.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what is it?
Speaker 1: This is seventy So maybe I'm just.
Speaker 2: Crazy, way over. I mean fourteen, we close fourteen, and
Speaker 2: we're going to be up in super content his story?
Speaker 1: All right? All right, you know what I think I did?
Speaker 1: I think I that's right. Okay, Well I don't know whatever. Okay,
Speaker 1: we need to do.
Speaker 2: You the math guy, why I have a model?
Speaker 1: Why I have a model. I make sure my spreadsheets
Speaker 1: do it all for me. But yeah, okay, that's my bad.
Speaker 1: Either way, we're gonna go fifteen out of fifteen for
Speaker 1: the next pick, so whatever, God.
Speaker 2: I think people, I'll say this, if we were to
Speaker 2: go fifteen and o the next three weeks, we win
Speaker 2: the thing.
Speaker 1: I don't know about it.
Speaker 2: Let's tell you right now. If we close at fifteen
Speaker 2: and oh, okay, we win the thing. We're not going
Speaker 2: fifteen and oh we're not, just hypothetically, but we we
Speaker 2: win the thing. If we wind up, if we're If
Speaker 2: I'm sixteen picks over five hundred, I know.
Speaker 1: What I did. I know what I did. I put
Speaker 1: in the wrong number of total picks. That's why I
Speaker 1: had it totally confused. It's completely my bad. I don't
Speaker 1: know what we need to do, but we need to
Speaker 1: do better than we're doing. Yes, so let's get started.
Speaker 1: My bad, everybody. I'm better with numbers, I promise. All right, Matt,
Speaker 1: as usual, you start us off, start us off with
Speaker 1: the pick. Let's see what we've got what's your number
Speaker 1: one pick of the.
Speaker 2: Week seven games. I like, let's just start with the
Speaker 2: one that I think. I like the number. I like
Speaker 2: the number that we're getting. I like the team. I
Speaker 2: like the matchup, I like the injury situation, and I
Speaker 2: like the historical numbers against the team. The Rams own
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. The Rams are on the road the Ms.
Speaker 2: The Rams are laying less than a field goal, and
Speaker 2: I know that road favorites last week and the week
Speaker 2: before have been death. Totally understand it. Kyler Murray is
Speaker 2: not healthy. Yeah, the Patriots showed it last week that
Speaker 2: without Kyler Murray that team doesn't do anything. Okay, you
Speaker 2: can have Hopkins all you want, but you've got a
Speaker 2: great dB that can take away Hopkins on this Rams team,
Speaker 2: and you're left with trying to score and run the
Speaker 2: football against Aaron Donald in company. This is a bad
Speaker 2: week for the Cardinals. They're catching the Rams at the
Speaker 2: wrong time. Bounce back spot from the Rams under a
Speaker 2: field goal on the road. I love the Rams last
Speaker 2: two and a half this week.
Speaker 1: Do you worry what if Murray is healthy? Murray was
Speaker 1: not healthy last week. One hundred percent agree. We don't
Speaker 1: know though, whether or not this is an injury that's
Speaker 1: going to linger for the whole season, do we.
Speaker 2: I mean, well, it's a shoulder injury for a dude
Speaker 2: who's pretty frail. Yeah, and he's got a rip thing too, supposedly,
Speaker 2: so it's a couple of things. It's mounting, he's not
Speaker 2: that big, and he's got Aaron Donald to deal with.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So I think it's a bad situation for the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: And historically speaking, the last last year in Week seventeen,
Speaker 2: in Week thirteen, it was thirty one seven and thirty
Speaker 2: one twenty four the wins for the Rams.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes me a little nervous. It's not it's
Speaker 1: not a game that I'm on one way or another,
Speaker 1: but it's a game that I'm What makes me a
Speaker 1: time bit nervous. I agree with you. Murray's shoulder I
Speaker 1: think completely changes. You saw it last week. Of course,
Speaker 1: with the way he played against the Patriots. What makes
Speaker 1: me a little nervous. I mean the Cardinals blitz a lot.
Speaker 1: You know what God does under pressure. This is like
Speaker 1: a must win game for the car What are they
Speaker 1: six and five at this point? It's a must win
Speaker 1: game for the Cardinals. I think the Rams are a
Speaker 1: better team, so under field goal, I completely understand it.
Speaker 2: But it must win for the Rams too, though.
Speaker 1: It's true. Well yeah, I mean.
Speaker 2: If they want to win the division, they've got to
Speaker 2: win this game. I mean, these are games they've got
Speaker 2: to have. And Seattle's got the easiest schedule of all
Speaker 2: the four teams left to go in the division. It's true,
Speaker 2: So it's true they've got I mean, if they want
Speaker 2: to win the division and they want to avoid I mean,
Speaker 2: they're not gonna get the one seed, but if they
Speaker 2: want to avoid, you know, not having it going on
Speaker 2: the road, doesn't it matters this year? Or we're going
Speaker 2: the road, but it's better to play at home than
Speaker 2: on the road. Yeah, you got to win this game.
Speaker 2: Just you have to win this game, all right.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put in the maybe category. I will say
Speaker 1: that sixty four percent of the experts on our bet
Speaker 1: analyzer are on Arizona, and I, you know, just tossing
Speaker 1: the game up in the air, I kind of, you know,
Speaker 1: it was a maybe for me. I don't know, we'll
Speaker 1: see what happens. I could go either way, but I
Speaker 1: did lean Arizona a little bit just because again, I
Speaker 1: thought this would be a game where you know, it's
Speaker 1: a home dog. I know it's it's two and a
Speaker 1: half point, it's not a big deal. But with how
Speaker 1: much they desperately need this game, with how they blitz,
Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna put in the maybe. It's in
Speaker 1: the maybe, So no prom there.
Speaker 2: Ah.
Speaker 1: For my favorite pick, I guess my number one would
Speaker 1: probably be the Pats getting a half a point from
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Now number three, what's that?
Speaker 2: It's my number three?
Speaker 1: So we can we just basically put it in yep,
Speaker 1: all right, So I really what this just comes down
Speaker 1: to is coaching. I mean, I can throw out everything
Speaker 1: else that's going on. I know Newton's a little banged up,
Speaker 1: so on the Andrew report, that's fine. I know the
Speaker 1: Pats kind of. I feel like we haven't gotten a
Speaker 1: great read on the Pats this year, nobody has. Nobody has.
Speaker 1: But what we do have a pretty good readrun probably
Speaker 1: is the Chargers, who at this point just it's just
Speaker 1: you know, the coaching is going to make up for
Speaker 1: whatever happens in this game. They're so we.
Speaker 2: Saw it in the playoffs, right, We've seen it before
Speaker 2: when Anthony Lynn has gone up against Belichick. It's been
Speaker 2: a complete mismatch, and look, they're three and eight. Anthony
Speaker 2: Lynz comments this week about the fact that they're not
Speaker 2: making the playoffs. Have you ever heard a coach say
Speaker 2: that in the middle of the year, Now we're done,
Speaker 2: like not, like, well, we need some help. We got
Speaker 2: to win out, Like they's not mathematically eliminated, Like they
Speaker 2: won every game and they went eight and eight, like
Speaker 2: they would have a chance to get in. Maybe not
Speaker 2: maybe not get in, but they have in the conversation,
Speaker 2: and Anthony lynn'z like, yeah, we suck and we're not
Speaker 2: making the playoffs, Like yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, I legitimately think back to Rex Ryan's first
Speaker 1: year with the Jets where they lost a game that
Speaker 1: they assumed that they would win, and he originally was like, Okay,
Speaker 1: I guess we've been eliminated because he thought mathematically wasn't
Speaker 1: And I was like, oh, no, you can still go
Speaker 1: if you went out including a game against the undefeated Colts,
Speaker 1: and like eight other things happened, and he was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is going to happen. We're going to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: We've got it, and they did, and it was highly
Speaker 1: unlikely that that would happen, but still the sort of
Speaker 1: you you're in it until you're not in it anymore.
Speaker 1: But have you ever seen a game bungled like that
Speaker 1: at the end of the end of the game, with
Speaker 1: what the Chargers did last week? Matt Like, I've ever
Speaker 1: seen that.
Speaker 2: I mean, I've also never seen a coach down ten
Speaker 2: with two seconds left run the kicker onto the field.
Speaker 2: He had the kicker. Somebody had to remind him. And
Speaker 2: this is where I think gambling came in. Somebody got
Speaker 2: into a zer and said, hey, by the way, the
Speaker 2: line's five and a half. Kick it a field goal.
Speaker 2: We don't cover. Oh okay, justin get back out. They're
Speaker 2: wunna play. He was gonna kick a field goal down ten.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean.
Speaker 2: This guy is just yeah. I mean, get rid of
Speaker 2: him immediately if you don't don't want to do it now,
Speaker 2: immediately after the year is over, because that is a
Speaker 2: coveted job. That is an unreal job. With Justin Herbert
Speaker 2: sitting there, speaking of prop bets, if you want to
Speaker 2: talk about passing yards for Herbert, I think he's gonna
Speaker 2: pass all over the Patriots. I think he's gonna have
Speaker 2: a huge game throwing the football. I just I think
Speaker 2: the Patriots are gonna bend, don't break in the red
Speaker 2: zone and they're gonna hold him the field goals. And
Speaker 2: then on the other side, I think the Patriots are
Speaker 2: going to be able to move the ball enough and
Speaker 2: run the ball enough. Eckler coming back is a big
Speaker 2: deal for the Chargers. It scares me. I'm not gonna
Speaker 2: do that. But there are some real ticks and tells
Speaker 2: when it comes to what Herbert does, and I think
Speaker 2: Belichick is gonna take advantage of that. I think Keenan
Speaker 2: Allen will just be swallowed by Stefan Gilmour.
Speaker 1: And I think Gilmore is gonna take Allan though, I
Speaker 1: mean he comes out of the slot. Would be my
Speaker 1: worry about what I.
Speaker 2: Mean, historically speaking, that's what's happened. I mean, I mean,
Speaker 2: I'll give credit to I'll give credit to the NFL
Speaker 2: network for this, but the NFL network has the status
Speaker 2: are when these two guys when they play. Gilmore's been
Speaker 2: on Keenan Allen. I think he's got three catches on
Speaker 2: like fifteen targets.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, So well, you know, I mean, look, you
Speaker 1: know that what the Patriots do on defense is they
Speaker 1: figure out where you want to go, and they manage
Speaker 1: to take that away and they force to go to
Speaker 1: your secondary options. Really in the end, they again, we
Speaker 1: don't we're not we don't know what the number is
Speaker 1: for Herbert, and I love Herbert this week. Of course.
Speaker 1: The only thing that worries me a little bit is
Speaker 1: the fact that you know, the Patriots are you know,
Speaker 1: they have the fewest you know, nobody runs and he
Speaker 1: plays against them because they run the ball so much. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the clock keeps moving and everything like that. But we'll
Speaker 1: get to the prop bets when numbers come out. Of course,
Speaker 1: either way, we both like this game. That's why we
Speaker 1: agree on. Let's go to your next one.
Speaker 2: Number two for me, I am going to take a
Speaker 2: number here just like the Rams miles two and a half.
Speaker 2: That number is three for the West Gates. So you
Speaker 2: get a better number here with the DraftKings. And I
Speaker 2: like the hook here with the Texans against the Colts.
Speaker 1: I can't believe this is the game that you're going to,
Speaker 1: but go ahead. Really, you know, so you like you
Speaker 1: like the Colts, well, I mean here's I don't like
Speaker 1: the hook. I agree, and I saw you posted it.
Speaker 1: I think you retweeted the number in the circle I think,
Speaker 1: and it was three, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's three in the Cirkcuts, three and a half
Speaker 2: in the West Gates, three and a half in the DraftKings.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So I at three I really like And I've
Speaker 1: locked it in at three for Indy actually because here's
Speaker 1: here's the way I'm thinking that you take away Will Fuller.
Speaker 1: I mean, have you seen Deshaun Watson's numbers? When you
Speaker 1: take away Will Fuller is there.
Speaker 2: It's it's big.
Speaker 1: Who are they gonna throw?
Speaker 2: There's a bigger problem. There's a bigger problem.
Speaker 1: Go ahead.
Speaker 2: The Colts defense is overrated and without COVID, with with
Speaker 2: the COVID issues that they've got still with guys being out,
Speaker 2: key guys being out due to COVID. I just these
Speaker 2: games in the AFC South have been shootouts. They've been
Speaker 2: up and down, back and forth. Texans are at home.
Speaker 2: I think it's a three point game, and I think
Speaker 2: it's a hook. I think it's the three and a
Speaker 2: half and take the home dog at three and a half.
Speaker 2: When everyone's gonna be on the Colts, you might by
Speaker 2: the time this game kicks, I expect this to be four,
Speaker 2: maybe even four and a half for him. Really yeah.
Speaker 2: I think everyone's gonna be on the Colts, I think,
Speaker 2: I think, and the Colt money is gonna come pouring
Speaker 2: in and everyone's gonna look at because what you're saying,
Speaker 2: everyone knows the will Fuller storyline. Yeah yeah, and everyone's
Speaker 2: just gonna run with this will Fuller. Without Will full
Speaker 2: they stink all they had problems with, you know, cheating
Speaker 2: and you know, big shock, their strength coach got busted,
Speaker 2: you know, and now and now everyone's getting busted. So
Speaker 2: it's you know, I just I feel like the storyline's
Speaker 2: going all against what's happening. And I just don't trust
Speaker 2: this indie offense right now because of the injuries that
Speaker 2: they've got and the fact that Rivers is banged up. So,
Speaker 2: I mean, we don't know it's ever gonna play for sure.
Speaker 2: We don't even know that's fair.
Speaker 1: I mean, does a toe injury, Yeah, he maybe not,
Speaker 1: but I assume he's gonna be out there. But I mean,
Speaker 1: you can give it to any one of those three
Speaker 1: backs and just let them run all day long. And
Speaker 1: I get that they've got problems on the offensive line
Speaker 1: a little bit. I think Kelly is going to come back.
Speaker 1: He's practicing fully at least, But I mean the Texans
Speaker 1: can't stop and run. Bradley Roby's out as well. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know who's gonna stop Pittman when they do throw it.
Speaker 1: I just don't know how the Texans are going to
Speaker 1: be able to up Indianapolis in this game. And I
Speaker 1: you know, Watson is fantastic. Maybe David Johnson comes back
Speaker 1: in this game. But I mean, Kiki q t as
Speaker 1: your number two wide receiver.
Speaker 2: At Aikins has had a couple of big games. He
Speaker 2: was kind of silent last week, but.
Speaker 1: Two touchdowns last week. That's he said.
Speaker 2: A couple of head a couple of ripped the Patriots.
Speaker 2: I mean, a huge game with the Patriots, and it's
Speaker 2: just Shaun Watson. I mean, maybe it's more Watson running
Speaker 2: the football, him picking up first down. I thought wet him.
Speaker 1: I thought that was our thing.
Speaker 2: I thought, I do hate the Texas. I always, I
Speaker 2: always am wrong with the Texans, except for spots like this,
Speaker 2: because I think the Colts. Everybody thinks this Colts defense
Speaker 2: is it's this world beater defense.
Speaker 1: And I'm like you, I mean, they got there, they
Speaker 1: got the you know, the Roof blown off last game
Speaker 1: against Fighting, so this seems like more of a bounce
Speaker 1: back spot for me, for the Colts and the Texans
Speaker 1: coming off a big win against a putrid Lions team.
Speaker 1: It almost seems like this is a spot to buy
Speaker 1: the Colts, not the Texans.
Speaker 2: And I think and that's why I'm gonna go against
Speaker 2: that theory, because I think everyone's going to be on
Speaker 2: that and everyone's going to pick at the fuller angle.
Speaker 2: So for me, I get three and a half here,
Speaker 2: I get the the hook is a big deal to me.
Speaker 2: And yeah, I like the three and a half.
Speaker 1: I like it less than three and a half. And
Speaker 1: as you said, you think it's gonna keep moving and
Speaker 1: go to four. And I guess I could see that.
Speaker 1: This strikes me as something where if you're right, the
Speaker 1: books will be fine to hold it at where it
Speaker 1: is at three and a half. But regardless, I mean,
Speaker 1: I can't do it, man, I'm on the either side.
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna push. I'm not gonna you know,
Speaker 1: debate it, like to try to be like no, no,
Speaker 1: let's go on the other way. But you know, I
Speaker 1: don't think the Texans. I don't think they can roll
Speaker 1: without Fuller. Man, I've seen it too often with what happens,
Speaker 1: and that was with DeAndre Hopkins. Now you've got just
Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks, who's a talented player. But man, I just
Speaker 1: don't see how they stop the Colts on either side
Speaker 1: without Roby. Roby was like there one guy in their
Speaker 1: secondary they could really sort of maybe take on a
Speaker 1: cornerback even though he hadn't played that well lately.
Speaker 2: Without No why, I don't know, we know why? No?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, right, we know why? Right? Whatever Will Fuller
Speaker 1: was having, I'll, you know, make me up a little
Speaker 1: cocktail that I'll think doubles. But I'm gonna go to
Speaker 1: my next game. I wonder how you feel about this one, Matt,
Speaker 1: because it involves our two teams, and I know it's
Speaker 1: I know it's the hook, but I don't care that
Speaker 1: they're going across town. I don't care that Jacobs hasn't
Speaker 1: pressed seven.
Speaker 2: It's late seven. It's on my list.
Speaker 1: For the Raiders. Yeah, yes, so you're okay Raiders because.
Speaker 2: It's eight and a half in uh, it's eight and
Speaker 2: half in the west Gate.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Raiders point.
Speaker 2: It's a full point. The line's nine already. Yeah, it's
Speaker 2: gonna it's gonna go to ten, and when it gets
Speaker 2: to ten, I'll bet the Jets.
Speaker 1: Sure, Sure, I'm totally fine with that. But right now,
Speaker 1: Raiders lank seven and a half points to the Jets. Now,
Speaker 1: what is that Agalore has a practice with an ankle injury?
Speaker 1: Do we know anything about?
Speaker 2: I mean, when I don't know what, it doesn't matter to me.
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, the only thing that scares me
Speaker 2: is this three all three starting wide altar back to
Speaker 2: the Jets and Sam Darnold.
Speaker 1: They scored three points last week with that exact scenario
Speaker 1: though against the Dolphins. They were all back last week.
Speaker 2: Oh I thought I thought one of them missed last week.
Speaker 1: Now all three were back last week they scored the points.
Speaker 2: Huh okay, y, yeah, I was. I was on the
Speaker 2: Dolphins last week in the circa in my seven look.
Speaker 2: I think at seven and a half, it's it's a
Speaker 2: value play for me. It's the right side, I believe,
Speaker 2: And I think the line's just gonna climb. I think
Speaker 2: they for whatever reason, it's you know, everyone's gonna remember
Speaker 2: what happened last week. The Jets were the team last
Speaker 2: year that the Raiders went across the Country and got
Speaker 2: destroyed in Week twelve, so they've already gotten that out
Speaker 2: of their system, right, And with how angry John Gruden
Speaker 2: was after the loss to the Falcons, I'd be surprised
Speaker 2: if Derek Carr is not coming out and playing really
Speaker 2: well this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was really That's that's the spot where they
Speaker 1: that that's last year's that's this year's version of last
Speaker 1: year's game against the Jets, So that sort of that
Speaker 1: this is a perfect spot for them to be angry
Speaker 1: and bounce back. I don't care if Jacob plays. I
Speaker 1: think DeVante Booker will be more than fine. I think
Speaker 1: the leeble Darren Waller is going to go nuts that
Speaker 1: you know, whether or not aguil or plays. Give me
Speaker 1: Henry Ruggs, give me Hunter Rentro. It's it's not matter.
Speaker 1: And the Jets are abysmal. They're just a terrible football team.
Speaker 1: If you're telling me, I can get them at close
Speaker 1: to a touchdown even with the hook, I don't care.
Speaker 2: So great yea, And the full point of value I
Speaker 2: think matters too. That the West skates at eight and
Speaker 2: a half and we're about seven and a half, so
Speaker 2: we're getting a full point there. So I like that
Speaker 2: a lot. From a value standpoint and an evaluation standpoint,
Speaker 2: Vegas is telling you that this number should be higher.
Speaker 1: Yep, absolutely. Okay, so we've got two two so far.
Speaker 1: That's good. Let's go to your next one.
Speaker 2: All right. I'm going with a play that I've gone
Speaker 2: back and forth with. But our number is different than
Speaker 2: the number in the Westgate here, Kansas City's minus thirteen
Speaker 2: and a half under fourteen. Given what's going on with
Speaker 2: the Denver Broncos, and given the fact that there are
Speaker 2: some real questions right now going on with what the
Speaker 2: Chiefs are looking like. I like the Chiefs miss thirteen
Speaker 2: and a half here to just go and put up
Speaker 2: a big number and kind of quiet down some people
Speaker 2: because they had a chance to just annihilate the Tampa
Speaker 2: Bay Bucks and they took their foot off the gas
Speaker 2: for whatever reason. They've looked bored and uninterested. But I
Speaker 2: don't think Drew Locke it's got much. I don't think
Speaker 2: this defense is going to be able to stop. And
Speaker 2: this is a big rivalry game for the Chiefs at home,
Speaker 2: there'll be some fans there. I just think Kensity destroyed.
Speaker 1: Denver Sunday Nights football, right is it Sunday Night football. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it is right.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the thirteen and a half.
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't hate it, and my guess is we're
Speaker 1: gonna put it in. I worry a little bit about
Speaker 1: the back door cover because they do have a you know,
Speaker 1: Kensady does have a little bit of a history here
Speaker 1: of not not you know, not going full out once.
Speaker 2: Again, it was ever covered in three straight games.
Speaker 1: That what I'm saying.
Speaker 2: So, but I think they're gonna hear that. I think
Speaker 2: that chatter is getting loud and people are saying, can
Speaker 2: you play for you know, four quarters? Can you keep it?
Speaker 2: Can you keep your foot down for all four quarters
Speaker 2: without being bored and disinterested? And look that they only
Speaker 2: had one hundred and one yards in the second half
Speaker 2: of total offense against Tampa. That that shouldn't happened. They
Speaker 2: should have been up by forty in that game.
Speaker 1: As somebody who had the Bucks plus three and a half,
Speaker 1: I was totally fine with it. But yes, I.
Speaker 2: Got it as totally fine. I'd rather be lucky, that's fine, Yeah, fine,
Speaker 2: But a gift from the referees, like.
Speaker 1: I heard, Hey, you know what, by the way, this
Speaker 1: is a good plug Matt for The Daily Jews because
Speaker 1: one of my favorite episodes was this past week where
Speaker 1: you were talking about that game and the Chargers and
Speaker 1: you were breaking that part of it down as well,
Speaker 1: even though I think you won because you had the
Speaker 1: teaser on the train.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I won that bet, But both those bets were
Speaker 2: done because I think that there's some real concerns with
Speaker 2: referees not wanting to be the story. Yeah, and so
Speaker 2: they're they're they're petrified. I'm not saying they're fixing games.
Speaker 2: I'm saying they're scared to be the story, right, And
Speaker 2: so they were afraid that they had just done that
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes pass interference call and that they were going
Speaker 2: to be the story because it was going to be
Speaker 2: a field goal by the Chiefs. And then the game
Speaker 2: is over and the primetime afternoon slot no one's watching
Speaker 2: anymore because the game's over. So they want the drama.
Speaker 2: And the way you get the drama is to keep
Speaker 2: that game within ten points until they threw flag flag flag,
Speaker 2: and they weren't the story anymore. It was the near
Speaker 2: comeback and the Chiefs began the story.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm gonna put that one in pencil my
Speaker 1: guess is that's going. But I'm totally fine with that night.
Speaker 1: You know, from a purely personal standpoint, there are a
Speaker 1: few things I enjoy more generally speaking than betting on Mahomes.
Speaker 1: I haven't done it in a few weeks, so that's
Speaker 1: probably why I feel that way, considering they haven't covered.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that's going to be one that
Speaker 1: we'll put in. I'm fine with that. How do you feel,
Speaker 1: Matt about one of the next ones out. I actually
Speaker 1: kind of went back and forth a little bit on this.
Speaker 1: The spread though it's under a field goal. I realized
Speaker 1: it's a home dog, so you know, you think about that.
Speaker 1: But the Saints minus two and a half against the Falcons,
Speaker 1: I've kind of analyzed this both ways. I don't think
Speaker 1: that Julio Jones is going to play in this one,
Speaker 1: because he practiced on Wednesday limited, then he was out
Speaker 1: today from practice on Thursday, which isn't usually a good sign.
Speaker 1: And if Jones doesn't play, the team just doesn't play well. Now,
Speaker 1: I think you can throw out kind of what happened
Speaker 1: in that first game two weeks ago, because they didn't
Speaker 1: even know whether or not Taysom Hill was going to play,
Speaker 1: and so they didn't know how to prepare necessarily. And
Speaker 1: Atlanta is playing better, their defense is playing better. But
Speaker 1: to take away Julio Jones, you might take away Todd Gurley.
Speaker 1: I don't really know if that matters. I just feel
Speaker 1: like it's going to be tough for them to hang
Speaker 1: with them when when Sean Payton's kind of got the buy,
Speaker 1: you know, in his sights at this point. So I
Speaker 1: would take the Saints laying two and a half on
Speaker 1: the road against Falcons.
Speaker 2: It's on my list, and I was talked into it
Speaker 2: by Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus because I was
Speaker 2: gonna I was on the Falcons till you know.
Speaker 1: I was so funny, man, I was on the Falcons
Speaker 1: originally too. Yea, that's so funny that you got I.
Speaker 2: Was on the Falcons. And then I had a long
Speaker 2: talk with Eric Giger on my radio show about it,
Speaker 2: and he basically broke it down like this, And I
Speaker 2: think it's a fair way of saying it if you
Speaker 2: go and watch the first half of the game, because
Speaker 2: I was on the over for that game, and it's
Speaker 2: only the second time in the last twenty years where
Speaker 2: one team scored forty three points and the under actually hit.
Speaker 2: So I had forty three points from the Falcons in
Speaker 2: a total of fifty four and a half and I
Speaker 2: missed that bet. That's how bad I have been gambling
Speaker 2: over the last seven days. That type of once in
Speaker 2: a blue moon twice in twenty years type of freak
Speaker 2: show game happens when I'm on the over in forty
Speaker 2: three points on one side scores and the Raiders do nothing.
Speaker 2: If you look at the four to three points, it
Speaker 2: was all done basically in the last third of the
Speaker 2: game through turnovers and mistakes by the Raiders. So three
Speaker 2: and outs and four turnovers for the Raiders and a
Speaker 2: pick six and whatnot. You have to get that again
Speaker 2: if you're gonna back the Falcons because their offense did
Speaker 2: not do very much.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: So going into this game against the Saints, it's like, Okay,
Speaker 2: how big of a drop off is Taysom Hill to
Speaker 2: this year's version of Drew Brees, not the historic Drew Brees,
Speaker 2: this year's version of Drew Brees, And up to this point,
Speaker 2: I haven't seen that big of a drop off with
Speaker 2: their offense. Different guys are getting the football, but their
Speaker 2: offense as a productive as being able to produce, has
Speaker 2: not had that mediocre you know'll fall off the table.
Speaker 2: Taysom Hill can't play the position that people thought was
Speaker 2: gonna happen. Here, I'm laying less than a field goal
Speaker 2: and I got the Saints defense and Matt Ryan without
Speaker 2: Julio Jones. Yeah, Sat.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's a little weird because I
Speaker 1: don't feel like I have a good sense of how
Speaker 1: to analyze Hill yet this last game against the Broncos
Speaker 1: was you can throw that entirely, Yeah right there, touchdown,
Speaker 1: and it was this game is over, so that that's
Speaker 1: really all it was. I'd like to see camarrogant more involved.
Speaker 1: I mean, he had barely involved in the past game,
Speaker 1: in all the past couple of games. But I think
Speaker 1: when he needs to, when he needs to go beyond
Speaker 1: just the you know, running quarterback that he's been doing
Speaker 1: so effectively. I think he completed eighteen of twenty three
Speaker 1: in that first game against the Lane. Anyway, he can
Speaker 1: throw the ball, he can throw the ball to Michael Thomas.
Speaker 1: So it just, you know, it's funny because oriusually I
Speaker 1: was also on Atlanta, but the more I kind of
Speaker 1: dug into it, especially again with the pessimistic reports here
Speaker 1: about Jones and maybe Girly. I would rather just take
Speaker 1: you know, a team the same if anything like, I'm
Speaker 1: happy to rely on the Saints defense. It's been playing
Speaker 1: well and I think they're gonna have a good game here,
Speaker 1: So okay, I'll put that one in. Then that's good.
Speaker 1: We're on the same side. Go ahead, you got any
Speaker 1: more that you like?
Speaker 2: One more and it's I'm fading myself because I want
Speaker 2: to take this team because I have been profitable with
Speaker 2: this team. I led this team a lot. It was
Speaker 2: my team of the year coming into the season. But
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the five and a half with the
Speaker 2: Browns against the Titans.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: And I think this is a low scoring I think
Speaker 2: this is a fast moving game. You're talking about both
Speaker 2: teams that are just gonna line up and run the football,
Speaker 2: and it's Chubb versus h Henry. And I think it's
Speaker 2: a three point win for the Titans. It opened up
Speaker 2: a three and a half. It's been bet up to
Speaker 2: five and a half now to six at some books,
Speaker 2: and it's climbing. I just think at five and a
Speaker 2: half and six, I just think you take the points
Speaker 2: here and take the dog and look for a twenty
Speaker 2: four to twenty win for the Titans.
Speaker 1: Interesting. So I actually this is I don't have a
Speaker 1: lean whatsoever on this game, Like I really don't. I
Speaker 1: don't know how to feel. I knew we weren't going
Speaker 1: to be talking. I frankly, I thought we just weren't
Speaker 1: going to be talking much about this game because it
Speaker 1: was a five and a half. So I knew you
Speaker 1: couldn't take the Titans, because I know you hate doing
Speaker 1: that with any favorite laying five and a half. But
Speaker 1: I didn't think that you'd go against the Titans, especially
Speaker 1: not how they live there. I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know how good the Browns are. This is
Speaker 1: really free, right, don't they They don't.
Speaker 2: They don't need to be good here. They just keep
Speaker 2: the game close. I don't even win the game. But
Speaker 2: I think if it's three, I'm all over the Titans
Speaker 2: three and a half, I might even take the Titans.
Speaker 2: But at five and a half, I just think it's
Speaker 2: a numbers play for me more than anything, because everything
Speaker 2: is screaming the Titans at five and a half, and
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be one of the more popular
Speaker 2: plays of the week. Is gonna be on the Titans.
Speaker 2: So I'm just I'm fading that feeling. I'm fading that
Speaker 2: momentum because I think the Browns have the ability to
Speaker 2: run the football and keep it close and keep the
Speaker 2: football away. And yeah, the Browns do have a negative
Speaker 2: point differential of twenty one points. Yeah, and the Titans
Speaker 2: on the other side, the Titans are plus thirty nine.
Speaker 2: But I just think that the Browns are giving up
Speaker 2: two hundred and eighty six points a game. That's not horrific. Great,
Speaker 2: but it's not horrific. They're scoring two sixty five, But
Speaker 2: I mean they're five and one in home, that three
Speaker 2: and two on the road. Are they overrated at eight
Speaker 2: and three? Of course they're overrated at eight eight and three.
Speaker 2: They're not gonna win this game, but I think they
Speaker 2: can make enough plays given the fact that I think
Speaker 2: both teams are gonna run the ball a lot, that
Speaker 2: I think there's a chance the game is close.
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, I don't hate it. I want to put
Speaker 1: it on the potential list for sure, because you kind
Speaker 1: of talking me into it. You're kind of talking me
Speaker 1: into it. I like where your head is at, and
Speaker 1: I think it does make a lot of sense. There's
Speaker 1: going to be so much running in this game, yeah,
Speaker 1: that it's just going to be ridiculous. I don't you know.
Speaker 1: I hate relying on Mayfield just because I watching him
Speaker 1: miss some of those throws in the end zone just
Speaker 1: pisses me off. But I will say that I think
Speaker 1: the it's probably going to be a field goal game
Speaker 1: does make sense, especially you know. I also kind of
Speaker 1: like a little bit selling the Titans after that ginormous
Speaker 1: win last week. I feel like they could come down there,
Speaker 1: So I'll put it on the maybe list. I like it,
Speaker 1: all right? Do you have any that was it? Right?
Speaker 2: That was your last seven? Yep?
Speaker 1: All right, So now I don't have any others really
Speaker 1: that I was. I was leaning towards one way or
Speaker 1: the other. So let's talk through a couple of other games.
Speaker 1: Let's see maybe if by talking it through we like
Speaker 1: any of them. Let's start, and this is I'm surprised, Matt.
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that one of the games that you are
Speaker 1: not taking is the forty nine ers getting one and
Speaker 1: a half against the Bills. I thought you would love
Speaker 1: to fade the Bills in this spot.
Speaker 2: I can't hear I can't touch the forty nine ers.
Speaker 2: I just I what are they?
Speaker 1: I don't know, why, don't know, I don't.
Speaker 2: Certain weeks they rise up and it's like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 2: they actually can run the football, and in other weeks
Speaker 2: they can't tie their shoes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so like I I have those start back now,
Speaker 1: so you know which is big? Yep, that defense. Obviously
Speaker 1: they got Sherman back, so they got a little healthier
Speaker 1: at the defense. Now. I don't really I don't want
Speaker 1: this game, Matt, but if there were a side, I
Speaker 1: would take the forty nine ers. It's on Monday night
Speaker 1: football and now they're not home. I don't really know
Speaker 1: when they're not. That matters, right, they're playing in Arizona.
Speaker 2: I have no idea what that means. I mean, how
Speaker 2: do you? I mean, I think that actually is a
Speaker 2: good thing for San Francisco to kind of get out
Speaker 2: of there and just be you know, it's it's just
Speaker 2: play the game, that's it. And I think the first
Speaker 2: game of the two is probably better than the second
Speaker 2: game because just reading the reports that you know, the
Speaker 2: players aren't allowed to be around each other except for
Speaker 2: they can't communicate except for zoom. Yeah, so like I
Speaker 2: guess Kyle Shanahan said to the team that please let
Speaker 2: him know if any players are having mental problems and
Speaker 2: they're breaking down, which I don't think happens in the
Speaker 2: first week, but could happen in the second week. So
Speaker 2: I may be more concerned about next home game than
Speaker 2: this home game. But I mean, it's the Bills on
Speaker 2: the road. It's the Bills with Josh Allen, who throws
Speaker 2: picks the number. To me, you would think this number
Speaker 2: is higher, Okay, you would think so. I think the
Speaker 2: books right there are laying the groundwork for a bit
Speaker 2: of a trap, and I think everyone comes in on
Speaker 2: Buffalo heavy and then watch San Francis go win the
Speaker 2: game out.
Speaker 1: Right, right, That's kind of how I thought. I thought,
Speaker 1: that's possible to be a game where this is this
Speaker 1: the number of the number set at begging people to
Speaker 1: bet Buffalo.
Speaker 2: In my mind, I mean, maybe it is, but I
Speaker 2: mean I just to go ahead and take Nick Mullens
Speaker 2: and say Nick Mollins is gonna I mean what I
Speaker 2: am not.
Speaker 1: I'm not pounding the table for this game. I will
Speaker 1: say though, that I be on the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: if we want to go on away like if you
Speaker 1: came in and said the Bills, which of course I
Speaker 1: knew you wouldn't, I would be like, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Speaker 1: Not I don't. I don't feel good about that, but
Speaker 1: I do lean the forty nine ers for basically the
Speaker 1: reasons we're discussing. But yeah, too many variables. Okay, how
Speaker 1: about the Bears who are laying three and a half
Speaker 1: against the Lions in Chicago.
Speaker 2: I can't even like, like, what do you do with
Speaker 2: this game?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: So the Lions fire Matt Patricia. I mean, sometimes teams
Speaker 2: rebound and playing, Sometimes teams rally right when they.
Speaker 1: I think that usually generally speaking, their support for the
Speaker 1: notion that teams play better the first game.
Speaker 2: Yeah than after a coach. Yeah, so maybe it's you know,
Speaker 2: hooray ding dong the Wicked, which is dead. Okay, maybe
Speaker 2: that works right, And maybe there's this like win one
Speaker 2: for the Gipper thing. But I mean the Lions are
Speaker 2: trash yeah, okay, there, their roster is trash aside from
Speaker 2: just the team being coached, like trash, their rosters. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and the Bears. You want me to pick the baar?
Speaker 2: I mean, like I'm gonna back the Bears to do anything. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I can't even.
Speaker 1: Like, no, I would, I will be honest that I
Speaker 1: would probably be okay to back the Bears if it
Speaker 1: were three or less. Not when you're over three. Because
Speaker 1: the Bears, I think are going to be able to
Speaker 1: do really to whatever they you know, whatever the high
Speaker 1: end of their limitations are on offense, I think they're
Speaker 1: going to be hit. They're going to be able to
Speaker 1: hit the high end. I think Montgomery is gonna be
Speaker 1: able to run all day long. I think Alan Robinson
Speaker 1: is going to be in for a big day. And
Speaker 1: for Matthew Stafford. There's not gonna be any Kenny Galladay
Speaker 1: in this game. I guess DeAndre Swift is gonna play.
Speaker 1: There was all the weird stuff this morning about how
Speaker 1: it sounded like maybe it's not out of the concussion protocol.
Speaker 1: Now it says he is, but he didn't practice with
Speaker 1: an illness. Who knows. They don't have the playmakers. I
Speaker 1: think Chicago wins this game. So if I could get
Speaker 1: it at a field goal or less, I probably would
Speaker 1: like that. I don't like it though, overfield goal at
Speaker 1: three and a half.
Speaker 2: The line is three right now, but not for us.
Speaker 1: Correct the line is three right now the consensus line.
Speaker 1: If you go to betting pros dot com you can
Speaker 1: see it. And I do have I do have it
Speaker 1: at three. I have placed a wager, not not the
Speaker 1: larg winder, but I placed the wager at the Bears three.
Speaker 1: I don't like it a three and a half. That
Speaker 1: gets me a little nervous, and I'm certainly not back
Speaker 1: in the lines under any circumstances. Eagles getting eight and
Speaker 1: a half against the Packers in Green Bay.
Speaker 2: So I have Dave Sheapin, who's a longtime book maker
Speaker 2: who's been on The Daily Juice a couple of times.
Speaker 2: He's great, and he's on my show all the time.
Speaker 2: So him and I went back and forth this morning
Speaker 2: on this game. Because this is given the last two weeks,
Speaker 2: I would not I wouldn't take one of our valuable
Speaker 2: five picks and use this. But this might be worth
Speaker 2: the money play for me because everyone is going to
Speaker 2: be on Green Bay yep. The world will be on
Speaker 2: Green Bay, yep. The number is going to go to
Speaker 2: ten yep. And I'm gonna take the Eagles yep. I
Speaker 2: mean it's eight and a half for us, right, it's
Speaker 2: eight and a half for us. So I thought about it.
Speaker 2: I mean, I really did.
Speaker 1: And if you had come in here, if you would
Speaker 1: come in here and said I want the Eagles eight
Speaker 1: and a half, that would be in the contest match.
Speaker 1: That's where I'm at it.
Speaker 2: I'm we eat a fourth, So I'm not a poster.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm telling you, I'm gonna bet this game,
Speaker 2: and I'm going to bet the Eagles. And and Dave's
Speaker 2: Dave thinks something saying He's like, this.
Speaker 1: Is really this strikes me as a game that he
Speaker 1: thinks that nuts.
Speaker 2: He thinks I'm crazy to go ahead to go against
Speaker 2: Rogers in green.
Speaker 1: Bay like that that's fair.
Speaker 2: And he thinks, like, what are you doing going up
Speaker 2: against the Green Bay Packers? And you know, given the
Speaker 2: fact that Philly can't stop anybody. But I just think
Speaker 2: that this is an Eagles team. I don't like Doug
Speaker 2: Peterson at all. I don't like Carson Wentz at all.
Speaker 2: But you're going to a part of the country where
Speaker 2: Carson Wentz played football college football, and you're going into
Speaker 2: an environment where he needs to go and do something
Speaker 2: to justify his job. And if he takes Green Bay
Speaker 2: to the wire and they lose by a field goal.
Speaker 2: So what I just I think Philly's in the game
Speaker 2: and eight and a half, it is prime for a beat, right,
Speaker 2: prime for a backdoor.
Speaker 1: And you know that, you know the Eagles, you know
Speaker 1: Wentz right exact. Now, that's that's pretty extenuating circumstances. But yes,
Speaker 1: I agree with that. And really, the way I look
Speaker 1: at this game is that the Eagles defense is not terrible.
Speaker 1: I mean, they can stop the run at the very least,
Speaker 1: and the Packers can't stop the run. And why I
Speaker 1: realized that Seattle has a better run defense in pass defense,
Speaker 1: although they did, I mean, their defense as a whole
Speaker 1: is getting better right now. But the idea that Peterson
Speaker 1: came out and it was first and five to start
Speaker 1: that game after the penalty, and he threw three straight
Speaker 1: times absolutely mind boggling. I think there's got to be
Speaker 1: a realization that, like, look, I get that, you know,
Speaker 1: we want to fix Carson Wentz, but maybe the way
Speaker 1: you fix Carson Wentz is to establish a running game
Speaker 1: a little bit with Miles Sanders and everything like that.
Speaker 1: So I do think they're gonna run run the ball
Speaker 1: a ton here against you saw what Montgomery did last week.
Speaker 1: I think They're gonna run the ball a ton in
Speaker 1: this game. It's going to rain the clock, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be able to keep it close, keep Rogers off the field.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I don't mind Philadelphia here. I mean again,
Speaker 1: this is sort of the same thing. And be like,
Speaker 1: am I really ready to back a team like the
Speaker 1: Bears or the Lions or you like? But if you
Speaker 1: would come and been like, yeah, I'm gonna put on
Speaker 1: the maybe list and when we get to the final ones,
Speaker 1: we'll talk about it, I guess. But gross Bengals getting
Speaker 1: eleven and a half from the Dolphins in Miami.
Speaker 2: Can't do it with a backup quarterback on the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just kidding. What if it was to it, by
Speaker 1: the way, would it matter? Uh, because it might be
Speaker 1: too you know, he's gonna tell us Sunday morning.
Speaker 2: Yeah that's the report right now. No, I just I'm
Speaker 2: looking at Cincy more than I am Miami.
Speaker 1: That's what you're saying.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that concerned about Cincinnati scoring, Like everybody's loving this
Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins defense, and I just I just don't know
Speaker 2: what the since the offense does. Yeah, it concerns me
Speaker 2: that all of a sudden that they may get you know,
Speaker 2: they may actually be able to put up a number
Speaker 2: or two. So what do we do if they do that?
Speaker 2: If since he's scoring and they keep it and then
Speaker 2: they lose by ten, lose. So it's just it's too
Speaker 2: big of a number for this Dolphins team.
Speaker 1: And oh, I'm not taking the Dolphins, Matt, That's not.
Speaker 2: What I'm saying. The Bengals.
Speaker 1: I'm not taking either side just there. I'm not fanning
Speaker 1: this game or going anywhere near it. But I do
Speaker 1: think if there were a side to take, certainly, if
Speaker 1: TU have played, I'd prefer the Bengals at eleven and
Speaker 1: a half. But I don't know. Eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: It's so many points, Matt. I realized that they looked
Speaker 1: abysmal last week, and they got a special team's touchdown,
Speaker 1: so that was one of the reasons why they kept
Speaker 1: to close, but still eleven and a half points against
Speaker 1: the team that really you know, you know, if the
Speaker 1: Jets could have scored a touchdown last week, they cover
Speaker 1: that ripe a spread, right, So, but I don't want
Speaker 1: to go near it. But that's just where I'm If
Speaker 1: I had to pick a side, I'd go with the Bengals,
Speaker 1: particularly if to a starts. How about the Jaguars plus
Speaker 1: nine and a half against the Vikings in Minnesota.
Speaker 2: So who's playing quarterback for the Jets?
Speaker 1: For the Jaguars, yeah, do we know? Yeah, it's Glennon
Speaker 1: for sure. For sure, he's been named the starter.
Speaker 2: What is going on with Minshew? Oh?
Speaker 1: Nothing. The coach is just the worst coach in the world.
Speaker 1: He's back being healthy, he's clear to start right here starting.
Speaker 2: Why isn't Minshew playing in this game.
Speaker 1: Because the coach is terrible? I don't I don't have
Speaker 1: an answer for you. Because they they they wound up
Speaker 1: losing by two to Cleveland, and maybe he thinks he
Speaker 1: wants to save his job by he thinks that gives
Speaker 1: him a better chance to win. I don't know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's just it's terrible that uncertainty is large to
Speaker 2: me because what if what if Minshew gets put in
Speaker 2: like the in the first quarter, things don't go well,
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden he comes off the bench
Speaker 2: and he starts slinging it, and then all of a
Speaker 2: sudden Jacksonville was live again, And it's like, uh, oh, So,
Speaker 2: I mean I would I would lean to the Jags
Speaker 2: if I had to take a side. I would take Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: But I mean I don't like Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: You know this, I do, and I know we like
Speaker 1: to fade Kirk. This is exactly what now, I don't
Speaker 1: want this game. Just to be clear, I do have
Speaker 1: them at ten and a half. They's spreading our contests
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I have the Jaguars at ten
Speaker 1: and a half because this is the fade Kirk Cousin spot. Yes,
Speaker 1: this is the like quintessential fade Kirk Cousin spot. Now
Speaker 1: it's the Jaguars like an historically bad team that I'm
Speaker 1: not like, Yeah, let's go get him nine and a half.
Speaker 1: That's great, right, But if you're giving me, especially over ten,
Speaker 1: I am taking that. So my advice if you're listening,
Speaker 1: if you can get it over ten and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I do think the Jaguars are gonna hang here because
Speaker 1: the Vikings secondary is terrible. So the Jaguars, they still
Speaker 1: put up points last week. Hopefully they get Chark back.
Speaker 1: James Robinson is a stud. He's gonna get his so
Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to keep it close a
Speaker 1: little bit here. So yeah, I like him in ten
Speaker 1: and a half. But below ten single digits. I'm just no,
Speaker 1: there are other games I'd rather go with. How about
Speaker 1: the Giants plus ten and a half against the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: Until we know about Danny Dimes and what he's doing,
Speaker 2: I mean, do we know about him yet?
Speaker 1: So I think the expectation is he's going to miss
Speaker 1: the game, but he is upping in practice and he's
Speaker 1: going to travel with the team, so it's possible. But
Speaker 1: I think the expectation is Cole McCoy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if he was playing, I take the ten and
Speaker 2: a half, But without knowing what's going on with Dan,
Speaker 2: I can't. I can't back either thought of here because yeah,
Speaker 2: Sales at home and I like Seattle, but I think
Speaker 2: their defense is still not that great and I know
Speaker 2: that New York defense might get victimized me and everyone's
Speaker 2: getting victimized right now by the passing attack for the
Speaker 2: Sales Seattles. So I would like to take the ten
Speaker 2: and a half points if we had Daniel Jones, but
Speaker 2: since we don't know about it, it's a no play.
Speaker 1: And even if he plays, I'm not going to feel
Speaker 1: comfortable that he's going to make it through that game
Speaker 1: right now because he's it would be dicey for him
Speaker 1: to play, So I agree with you. I would rather
Speaker 1: just stay away if we If he was coming in
Speaker 1: and fully healthy and this was the line, I'd take
Speaker 1: it and not worry about it. I mean, Seattle always
Speaker 1: plays one score games. That's just kind of what they
Speaker 1: do with Colt McCoy and the rest of the night.
Speaker 1: I don't really feel comfortable about that. Yeah, how about
Speaker 1: Washington last two games here Washington plus eight and a
Speaker 1: half against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: If I was going to bet this and take this game, Okay,
Speaker 2: if you were to stay on a table and tell
Speaker 2: me you wanted Washington, I'd go along with it. Yep,
Speaker 2: that's how I would take Washington. I think Washington's defense
Speaker 2: is really underrated. People aren't and I think, look, the
Speaker 2: the Ravens gave a blueprint for Washington to go ahead
Speaker 2: and copy. And sure you can't script drop passes. I
Speaker 2: understand that, kid, but but I mean, I I think
Speaker 2: there's something to be said there about having having this
Speaker 2: quick turnaround and having your whole world be thrown up
Speaker 2: in the air. Playing now, you know, five o'clock Eastern
Speaker 2: time start on Monday, after playing on Wednesday, and you know,
Speaker 2: Tomlin's really angry, but like, you know, there's not much
Speaker 2: he can do because you can't meet the guys go
Speaker 2: run hills or something. I mean, like, you know, he
Speaker 2: can't do much in the middle of the year with
Speaker 2: all this, all the pandemic problems. Pouncy, we got to
Speaker 2: see if Pouncy's if he has if Pouncy has COVID,
Speaker 2: he's out for this game. He's not playing correct. So
Speaker 2: I mean, you're without your your your your signa caller,
Speaker 2: and you got you know, Chase Young in that defensive
Speaker 2: line and without your center. Oh, big Ben has not
Speaker 2: been moving around all that. Well, you're talking about one
Speaker 2: of the better defensive lines in the entire NFL getting
Speaker 2: after a statue back there at quarterback.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: So if if I was gonna play, if you told
Speaker 2: me you wanted Washington, I would not fight you on this.
Speaker 1: That's actually exactly how I feel. This was one of
Speaker 1: the games where I was like, all right, if Matt
Speaker 1: comes in and says, you know, Dan like this game
Speaker 1: feeling it, I'd be like, all right, yeah, I'll put
Speaker 1: it in. That's fine. And again they lost Bud Dupree.
Speaker 1: That that's you know, huge. Yeah, it's big, so I
Speaker 1: don't mind it necessarily. I do feel like the Steelers.
Speaker 2: Are I like I like Washington more than Philly. Okay, Okay,
Speaker 2: we'll talk about teams getting eight and a half points
Speaker 2: on the road. I like Washington more than I like Philly.
Speaker 1: All right, so I'm gonna cross off the Philly regardless
Speaker 1: when we go through our finals and we and we
Speaker 1: talk about what we want. But that's fine. I'm okay
Speaker 1: with that last one. Ravens laying eight and a half
Speaker 1: to the Cowboys in Baltimore.
Speaker 2: This is another one, Okay, So you're gonna get Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson back in this game. It's a Tuesday, Tuesday night game.
Speaker 2: Like what Tuesday night?
Speaker 1: You say this?
Speaker 2: So we have Tuesday night football. We have a Ravens
Speaker 2: team that couldn't do anything offensively, But I don't know
Speaker 2: what Dallas does. Put it this way, I think I
Speaker 2: think Jackson comes back and has a huge game, running
Speaker 2: the ball all over Dallas. I just don't know. I
Speaker 2: don't know what Dallas looks like like. The reason I
Speaker 2: want to take Baltimore here, but I'm scared to listen
Speaker 2: to you to delay this type of number here. Just
Speaker 2: because I don't. I mean, it's what seven and a half?
Speaker 1: It is eight and a half in the cons Oh gosh,
Speaker 1: it's seven and a half right now. If you go
Speaker 1: out there and you're trying to bet it, it's at
Speaker 1: seven and a half right now, it's at eight and
Speaker 1: a half in the contest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just too many points right now for me.
Speaker 2: I mean it was seven seven, okay, but eight and
Speaker 2: a half screams back door or something screwy happening. Raven's
Speaker 2: making a mistake. Yeah, they're six and five. That was
Speaker 2: their season yesterday, So I mean, losing that was brutal
Speaker 2: they have.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you throw out that they couldn't
Speaker 1: do anything offensively. They didn't have Dobbins, like obviously the
Speaker 1: biggest one is they didn't have Jackson. Then they they
Speaker 1: lost RG three, you know, in the other game, not
Speaker 1: that he could really do anything anyway.
Speaker 2: Didn't mcsorly start.
Speaker 1: I you know, I don't know with the way he
Speaker 1: looked in that game, I know, I mean I think
Speaker 1: what they basically thought is, look, it's gonna be RG
Speaker 1: three running the exact same offense that Lamar Jackson can run.
Speaker 1: Not as well, but he runs the exact style of
Speaker 1: offense that we run, and so that's what you want
Speaker 1: to you don't want to, you know, say, like.
Speaker 2: My point was, isn't that what Pittsburgh prepped for? Yeah,
Speaker 2: and they prepared for that offense. So why throw a
Speaker 2: curve ball at him and throw out and throw mcsorly
Speaker 2: or at least like throw a package or two together
Speaker 2: and have McSorley out there throwing the football because he
Speaker 2: looked way better, yeah, throwing the football than RG three did.
Speaker 1: It's pretty crazy what RG three is now, right, Like
Speaker 1: how amazing he was when he came out of college
Speaker 1: and that I was explaining it to my son, my
Speaker 1: second year old, and just trying to He was like
Speaker 1: that guy's not very good, dad, And I'm like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I know, but there was a time where he was
Speaker 1: like amazing, could totally take over. Yeah for me. Look,
Speaker 1: they've got so many question marks, especially as we're looking
Speaker 1: at it now, and we probably won't know by Tuesday even.
Speaker 1: I mean, they've got injuries all up, you know, the
Speaker 1: offensive problems, but also injury. I mean I think I
Speaker 1: didn't I wasn't paying that close attention to that game
Speaker 1: by the end, because good it was unwatchable almost, but yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, I think, uh, maybe it wasn't a Humphrey
Speaker 1: but Jimmy Smith left.
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, and I thought something too all like every
Speaker 2: big name player with the name.
Speaker 1: So it's just a game where I look, do I
Speaker 1: think if you were like you have to choose a side,
Speaker 1: I would take the Ravens at eight and a half
Speaker 1: because I think they're they're gonna have a bounce back
Speaker 1: spot eventually, and I just don't think Dallas is very good,
Speaker 1: but not for this contest. Okay, So that's every game.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the three that we have definitely
Speaker 1: agreed on. And there's a four four the Chiefs Is
Speaker 1: that the fourth? Yeah, yeah, that's fine. Okay, I'll put
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in. That's fine. The Chiefs were sort of like,
Speaker 1: I'm penciling it in, but I'm not petting it in. Pats,
Speaker 1: I guess it's getting a half point from the Chargers.
Speaker 2: They're really they're getting a half a point?
Speaker 1: Did I You know, I always mix it up half
Speaker 1: the time.
Speaker 2: I think they're laying half a point?
Speaker 1: Are they laying half a point? I think check check
Speaker 1: our check my messages to you. While I while I
Speaker 1: did this. Hold on, I'll look at it right here.
Speaker 1: The Pats are getting half a point. I'm right, Whatts
Speaker 1: are getting half a point in our contest?
Speaker 2: They are?
Speaker 1: Yes, I am infallible. I make mistakes on well.
Speaker 2: The Patters are now minus one and a half, so yeah,
Speaker 2: getting two points of that.
Speaker 1: This was a This was a everybody's gonna take the
Speaker 1: patris and they should. I don't care if it's going
Speaker 1: to be a public play because I'm just to give
Speaker 1: me the coaching edge. I'll take the coaching edge, and
Speaker 1: I'll go home with my winnings. Pats getting half a
Speaker 1: point from the Chargers, the Raiders laying seven and a
Speaker 1: half points to the Jets, the Saints minus two and
Speaker 1: a half points the Falcons, the Chiefs laying thirteen and
Speaker 1: a half to the Broncos. So we've got one more.
Speaker 2: We need a dog, Yeah, we need a dog.
Speaker 1: You need a dog, Okay, So the dogs that we
Speaker 1: are considering are well, the other guys we're considering were
Speaker 1: the Rams laying two and a half against the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: which I I don't love completely. So we've got we've
Speaker 1: got two dogs. Then to choose from the brown and
Speaker 1: I'm okay to do this one because I think you
Speaker 1: like this one a little bit. The Brown's getting five
Speaker 1: and a half from the Titans, or it looks like
Speaker 1: Washington getting eight and a half from the Steelers.
Speaker 2: You're gonna have to break that tight because I like
Speaker 2: them both the same. I like them both the same.
Speaker 1: Do you really like the both of the same, because
Speaker 1: it sounded like you liked the Browns a little more.
Speaker 2: They are. They're on my list of number five. But
Speaker 2: remember why I'm picking. I'm picking because I'm fading myself
Speaker 2: on that right because i want to take the Titans.
Speaker 2: Like I've had to, like slap my hand because it's
Speaker 2: five and a half and I hate that number in contests.
Speaker 2: I want to take the Titans, but everything is screaming Titans,
Speaker 2: and that means we have to take the Browns, or
Speaker 2: at least I do, because I've been This is just
Speaker 2: the public's going to be riding this saying Baker stinks,
Speaker 2: the Cleveland Browns are overrated. Titans just annihilated the Colts,
Speaker 2: so it's gonna be a big public play. So I'm
Speaker 2: going the other way and I'm taking the Browns. The
Speaker 2: under the radar play will be Washington against Pittsburgh because
Speaker 2: I think it's either Pittsburgh or no play for most people.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, And it's it's interesting because this is unfortunate.
Speaker 1: Part of it's like it's like buying high on Washington
Speaker 1: because the big Thanksgiving performance, and I really don't want
Speaker 1: to do that. But their defense is legitimate, absolutely legitimate.
Speaker 1: And given the fact that the Steelers are having troubles
Speaker 1: stopping the run after they've lost Devin Bush, oh man,
Speaker 1: this is close. Okay, So this is one and I
Speaker 1: know we don't like to do the mat but we
Speaker 1: we gotta let these marinate a little bit.
Speaker 2: So well, sure, I'm with I'm with swapping out this week.
Speaker 2: It's getting late in the year. I mean that there
Speaker 2: are things, especially on a Monday night COVID situation, if
Speaker 2: there are big issues with Cleveland or Tennessee for COVID,
Speaker 2: we can swept to a Monday night Washington. We have
Speaker 2: the extra day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, So for now, for right now, our unofficial pick,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be Washington. And the reason really is the
Speaker 1: fact that I could see a scenario where the Titans
Speaker 1: just completely blow the roof off, you know, Henry runs
Speaker 1: for two giant, you know, monster runs aj Brown breaks
Speaker 1: a seventy our touchdown early on, and the Browns are
Speaker 1: down fourteen to nothing, and suddenly they're like, oh no,
Speaker 1: we can't run this.
Speaker 2: My brain is saying that. I'm telling you no, my
Speaker 2: brain is saying Titan's big. And I'm fighting myself because
Speaker 2: this feels too easy. And when whenever that happens, I
Speaker 2: always want to check myself and take the other side.
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, I think, uh, well, let's let's put in
Speaker 1: Washington for now as our fifth pick and and a half.
Speaker 1: And this is a good mix, a good mix of
Speaker 1: you know, we're we're mostly favorites, but it's it's a
Speaker 1: pretty good mix. And I don't think we're going to
Speaker 1: be too public in all these plays, but we'll see, we'll.
Speaker 2: See we're going to be public. Dude.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right. As I was looking at it, I
Speaker 1: was like.
Speaker 2: Chief like the Chiefs, We're going you want to go real?
Speaker 2: We did just go take Philadelphia, take Washington, take the
Speaker 2: take the chance. And the books.
Speaker 1: The books had a huge week last week, right, last
Speaker 1: two weeks. Yeah, so they're due for correct a mini correction,
Speaker 1: right is correct correction? Okay, anyway, look, you guys know
Speaker 1: what we do. We I will I will put them
Speaker 1: on Twitter what our final picks are when we make them,
Speaker 1: which is usually Saturday night. I don't worry about anybody
Speaker 1: following us or whatever for the if they're in the contest.
Speaker 1: So I'll put that up. Then we'll talk about you know, Matt,
Speaker 1: we'll talk about our picks on YouTube dot com slash
Speaker 1: Betting Pros on the live stream Sunday morning eleven am
Speaker 1: to noon. But this is good, and we've got some
Speaker 1: options here if we decide that we don't like. But again,
Speaker 1: this is the time of the year. You're right, Matt,
Speaker 1: Like nobody could have predicted what happened that the Broncos
Speaker 1: we're gonna be playing without a quarterback. Like there can
Speaker 1: be developments of course at this time of the year
Speaker 1: with COVID, But for now, you feel okay with this, Matt? Yes,
Speaker 1: all right, very good, So do I all right, So
Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for today's Betting Pros. NFL podcast
Speaker 1: will be back next week. Of course, check out The
Speaker 1: Daily Juice, Matt's great podcast, and again Betting Pros dot Com,
Speaker 1: YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros, where you can check
Speaker 1: out Matt's live stream on Sunday morning from eleven am
Speaker 1: to noon. Until then, we will talk to you next week,
Speaker 1: same time, same time,