WEBVTT - Week 13 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 67) 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:15.920 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:18.200 Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can 0:00:18.280 --> 0:00:20.720 find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. Ady back with me, 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:23.520 Thank goodness, it's whatever. You want to call him. Co 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:26.000 host whatever. Matt Parral you can find him on Twitter 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:28.880 at Sports Talk Matt Matt. I hope you had a 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:31.600 great Thanksgiving. I apparently we made a couple of people 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:34.440 mad because we weren't able to get together and do 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:37.280 our usual show. But how's our holiday? How you doing? 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:40.040 It? Was great? I'm great. I'm excited for the week. 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:42.080 I'm glad we took the week off. We dodged a 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:45.680 bullet and look, I think we predicted it way back 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:47.559 in the beginning in September when we were kind of 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:49.400 mapping out what weeks we were going to take off. 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:51.559 I think it was always trying to take off the 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:54.240 Thanksgiving Day week and then week seventeen, which is obviously 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:56.560 the worst week to bet in in the NFL. So 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:00.160 I think so far, even though we haven't played as 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:02.520 perfectly as we would have liked, I think as to 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.399 when we took the week off, that was a good 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:06.080 week to pass and say no thank you. 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:08.440 Now, just a couple of things to clarify. Number one, 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:10.720 this one remember you're the other ones, you're in the circa, 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:13.320 you're super condent. This one only goes through week sixteen, 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:15.679 so we have to take another bye by week sixteen, so. 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:17.959 We even week sixteen, I would take off. 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:20.039 Yeah, well, well we'll figure it out. Well, we'll get 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:22.240 through everything. But yes, you are correct, we did in 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.199 fact move up in the standings by taking a bye week, 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:26.560 because that's what it was. And there were the weird 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:28.240 There were a couple of weird things, like the Saints. 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:30.680 Those lines are locked in, right, so the Saints laying 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:32.959 six and a half to the Broncos were locked in 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.440 before you realize that the Broncos are going to be 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:38.520 playing with a a QB. So there were you know, 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:40.240 a game or two that we probably could have gone. 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:42.760 But yeah, it was not a good week for anybody 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:45.759 last week. But let's get into it for this week, 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:50.200 because interesting you like this slate, don't you miss you do? Huh? 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.040 I have seven games that I would bet. 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:54.080 All right, well we'll talk about it. I've got I've 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.160 got a few, but I'm not I'm not feeling it 0:01:57.200 --> 0:01:59.880 like crazy, but we'll get into it my usual recommendations 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:03.360 before we start. Join our discord channel bet Bettingpros dot 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:05.920 com slash Chat totally free. Just come talk about sports 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:09.280 gambling with other people who are also interested in Also 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:12.279 check out our prop bet cheat cheat over at bettingpros 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:17.320 dot com. Slash props compares consensus projections to available props 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:20.240 in the market generally, but also that are in your jurisdiction. 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:22.400 I'm from New Hampshire. The only place second bet is 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:24.800 on DraftKings, so when I go there, it shows me 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:29.560 the available props and the best recommendations for DraftKings props. Third, 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:32.560 if you want more props, you want more bets, tune 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:36.120 in make sure Sunday morning YouTube dot com slash betting 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:39.280 Pros Matt does a livestream eleven am to noon. He 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:41.840 talks about his best plays, we talk about props. I 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.200 always give him a couple of my props before you. 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:46.160 On the night before when I do my projections, and 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:48.760 again that's really what I do. I do projections for 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:51.720 every player for our fantasy purposes and that really helps 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:53.960 with prop bets. And on Saturday Night's late night I 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:55.640 do a big sweep of them. I go through and 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:57.480 then I take a look at the props. I try 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:59.200 to give Matt two or three. I think I'm on 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:00.000 a pretty good streak. 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:02.120 Can you do projections for every player? 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:05.800 I do projections for basically every player. I don't go 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:09.120 crazy with like if I was going to rank somebody 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.560 as the one hundred and fifteenth wide receiver, like, I 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:13.840 have a projection for them, but I'm not willing to 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.160 like go crazy. But yes, I project every player from 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:20.200 every game at Oh, how we roll good roll at 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:22.880 Fantasy Pros, baby, don't. We don't take anything for granted. 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:27.160 That is why I'm the seventeenth most accurate Fantasy ranker 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:29.480 in the nation. That's right, man, I don't know sure. 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:31.600 That's why I'm up till two in the morning on Saturday. 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:33.959 It's redoing my projections. It's all for you people. 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:36.480 I need to get see this is I was talking 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:38.000 to my producer on the on the on my radio 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.040 show today. Yep, you have not been on my radio 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:40.560 show yet. 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:43.480 I know. And it is a big problem in our relationship. 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:44.880 If you know why I'm salty. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:46.920 I need. I need to fix that. So we're gonna 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.320 fix that next week. We're gonna rectify that because I don't. 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:51.680 It was weird. I was going through and so my 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.160 other two partners in the circuit in the West Gate, 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.480 they do weekly appearances. And like my producer was like, 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.400 so why isn't Dan Harris coming on the show. And 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:01.600 I was like, you know what, it's a really good point. 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:04.120 Harris on the show. Right, we'll fix that. 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.560 We will think I haven't noticed that, blah blah, all right, 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:10.080 you will fix that. So look, last week, like I said, 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.160 we did not play in the DraftKings contest. It was 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.160 our planned week off, but we did move up. So 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:18.120 we are basically at I will call it in the 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.200 top forty percent. Now, that's not enough to cash. But 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:22.359 here's the deal. Matt and I are twenty eight and 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.960 twenty seven on the season, so that's fifty point nine 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:28.320 percent that is not going to do it in terms 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:31.520 of actually cashing. But if you look right now, Matt 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:36.039 in the money right now are sixty percent. Now, if 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:38.599 we essentially what we need to really do, we've got 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:41.480 fifteen picks left because we've got four weeks. We are 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:43.960 mandatory one week by so we're going to make three 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.600 more weeks five picks each this will probably be one 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:49.560 of them. We've got to basically blow it out to 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:52.120 finish and to finish in the money. But it's probably 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:56.279 four My guess is uh not? How many? Fourteen and one? 0:04:56.480 --> 0:04:58.800 So we basically can lose probably one game of the 0:04:58.839 --> 0:04:59.320 next three weeks. 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:02.440 We we now go fourteen and one, We're gonna be 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:03.760 over sixty percent, aren't we? 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.760 By I don't I think that equals I think that 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:10.640 equals sixty percent. You out there listening, you check. But 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.320 if we're twenty eight and twenty seven, right, and we 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:18.719 go fourteen and one, and we're what is that forty 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.880 two and twenty eight? Forty two out of sixty, we're 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:25.320 gonna do this right now? This is riveting podcasting. Hold 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:28.040 on forty two out of sixty. 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:29.560 I'm gonna say sixty five percent? 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:33.560 All right, let's well, maybe math's right. All right? Oh wait, 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:37.080 you're right. Maybe I'm crazy. Then you're right, maybe that's 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:37.560 way more. 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:38.640 Yeah, what is it? 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:41.359 This is seventy So maybe I'm just. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.360 Crazy, way over. I mean fourteen, we close fourteen, and 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:47.560 we're going to be up in super content his story? 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:49.360 All right? All right, you know what I think I did? 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:54.239 I think I that's right. Okay, Well I don't know whatever. Okay, 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:54.760 we need to do. 0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:58.240 You the math guy, why I have a model? 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:00.760 Why I have a model. I make sure my spreadsheets 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.159 do it all for me. But yeah, okay, that's my bad. 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.320 Either way, we're gonna go fifteen out of fifteen for 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:08.279 the next pick, so whatever, God. 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:09.960 I think people, I'll say this, if we were to 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:11.960 go fifteen and o the next three weeks, we win 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:12.320 the thing. 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:14.240 I don't know about it. 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:16.479 Let's tell you right now. If we close at fifteen 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:19.360 and oh, okay, we win the thing. We're not going 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:21.880 fifteen and oh we're not, just hypothetically, but we we 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:24.400 win the thing. If we wind up, if we're If 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:27.120 I'm sixteen picks over five hundred, I know. 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:28.800 What I did. I know what I did. I put 0:06:28.839 --> 0:06:31.359 in the wrong number of total picks. That's why I 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:34.080 had it totally confused. It's completely my bad. I don't 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:35.200 know what we need to do, but we need to 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:37.520 do better than we're doing. Yes, so let's get started. 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:41.320 My bad, everybody. I'm better with numbers, I promise. All right, Matt, 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.400 as usual, you start us off, start us off with 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:46.320 the pick. Let's see what we've got what's your number 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:46.880 one pick of the. 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:49.760 Week seven games. I like, let's just start with the 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:52.560 one that I think. I like the number. I like 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:55.240 the number that we're getting. I like the team. I 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:58.080 like the matchup, I like the injury situation, and I 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.800 like the historical numbers against the team. The Rams own 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:05.080 the Cardinals. The Rams are on the road the Ms. 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:06.919 The Rams are laying less than a field goal, and 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.040 I know that road favorites last week and the week 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:12.520 before have been death. Totally understand it. Kyler Murray is 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.360 not healthy. Yeah, the Patriots showed it last week that 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:18.360 without Kyler Murray that team doesn't do anything. Okay, you 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:21.440 can have Hopkins all you want, but you've got a 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:24.760 great dB that can take away Hopkins on this Rams team, 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:28.040 and you're left with trying to score and run the 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:31.480 football against Aaron Donald in company. This is a bad 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:33.680 week for the Cardinals. They're catching the Rams at the 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.880 wrong time. Bounce back spot from the Rams under a 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:39.720 field goal on the road. I love the Rams last 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:40.640 two and a half this week. 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:44.240 Do you worry what if Murray is healthy? Murray was 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.400 not healthy last week. One hundred percent agree. We don't 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:49.320 know though, whether or not this is an injury that's 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:50.920 going to linger for the whole season, do we. 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:53.120 I mean, well, it's a shoulder injury for a dude 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.920 who's pretty frail. Yeah, and he's got a rip thing too, supposedly, 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:59.040 so it's a couple of things. It's mounting, he's not 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:01.040 that big, and he's got Aaron Donald to deal with. 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:01.600 Yeah. 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:05.240 So I think it's a bad situation for the Cardinals. 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:08.840 And historically speaking, the last last year in Week seventeen, 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.960 in Week thirteen, it was thirty one seven and thirty 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:13.880 one twenty four the wins for the Rams. 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:16.640 Yeah, it makes me a little nervous. It's not it's 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:18.520 not a game that I'm on one way or another, 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:20.880 but it's a game that I'm What makes me a 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:23.560 time bit nervous. I agree with you. Murray's shoulder I 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.880 think completely changes. You saw it last week. Of course, 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.320 with the way he played against the Patriots. What makes 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:31.640 me a little nervous. I mean the Cardinals blitz a lot. 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:35.160 You know what God does under pressure. This is like 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:36.880 a must win game for the car What are they 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.320 six and five at this point? It's a must win 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:41.199 game for the Cardinals. I think the Rams are a 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.400 better team, so under field goal, I completely understand it. 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:46.400 But it must win for the Rams too, though. 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:49.160 It's true. Well yeah, I mean. 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:50.480 If they want to win the division, they've got to 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:52.360 win this game. I mean, these are games they've got 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:54.679 to have. And Seattle's got the easiest schedule of all 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:56.840 the four teams left to go in the division. It's true, 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.480 So it's true they've got I mean, if they want 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.240 to win the division and they want to avoid I mean, 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:02.959 they're not gonna get the one seed, but if they 0:09:02.960 --> 0:09:04.880 want to avoid, you know, not having it going on 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:06.839 the road, doesn't it matters this year? Or we're going 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:08.240 the road, but it's better to play at home than 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:10.280 on the road. Yeah, you got to win this game. 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:11.800 Just you have to win this game, all right. 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:13.640 I'm gonna put in the maybe category. I will say 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:17.640 that sixty four percent of the experts on our bet 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:22.120 analyzer are on Arizona, and I, you know, just tossing 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.120 the game up in the air, I kind of, you know, 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:26.040 it was a maybe for me. I don't know, we'll 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:28.560 see what happens. I could go either way, but I 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:30.880 did lean Arizona a little bit just because again, I 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:33.800 thought this would be a game where you know, it's 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:36.120 a home dog. I know it's it's two and a 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.800 half point, it's not a big deal. But with how 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:42.920 much they desperately need this game, with how they blitz, 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:44.920 all right, we're gonna put in the maybe. It's in 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:46.360 the maybe, So no prom there. 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:47.280 Ah. 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:51.360 For my favorite pick, I guess my number one would 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:56.199 probably be the Pats getting a half a point from 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:58.560 the Chargers. Now number three, what's that? 0:09:58.800 --> 0:09:59.680 It's my number three? 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.320 So we can we just basically put it in yep, 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:05.400 all right, So I really what this just comes down 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:08.960 to is coaching. I mean, I can throw out everything 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.040 else that's going on. I know Newton's a little banged up, 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:13.400 so on the Andrew report, that's fine. I know the 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:15.720 Pats kind of. I feel like we haven't gotten a 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:19.400 great read on the Pats this year, nobody has. Nobody has. 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:21.840 But what we do have a pretty good readrun probably 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.920 is the Chargers, who at this point just it's just 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:27.560 you know, the coaching is going to make up for 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.079 whatever happens in this game. They're so we. 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:32.440 Saw it in the playoffs, right, We've seen it before 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:34.480 when Anthony Lynn has gone up against Belichick. It's been 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:38.200 a complete mismatch, and look, they're three and eight. Anthony 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:40.280 Lynz comments this week about the fact that they're not 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:42.400 making the playoffs. Have you ever heard a coach say 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.559 that in the middle of the year, Now we're done, 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.000 like not, like, well, we need some help. We got 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.880 to win out, Like they's not mathematically eliminated, Like they 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.520 won every game and they went eight and eight, like 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:54.320 they would have a chance to get in. Maybe not 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:57.040 maybe not get in, but they have in the conversation, 0:10:57.360 --> 0:10:59.760 and Anthony lynn'z like, yeah, we suck and we're not 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:01.079 making the playoffs, Like yeah. 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:04.400 I mean, I legitimately think back to Rex Ryan's first 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.880 year with the Jets where they lost a game that 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:11.000 they assumed that they would win, and he originally was like, Okay, 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:13.280 I guess we've been eliminated because he thought mathematically wasn't 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.600 And I was like, oh, no, you can still go 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.440 if you went out including a game against the undefeated Colts, 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:21.200 and like eight other things happened, and he was like, yeah, 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:23.160 this is going to happen. We're going to make the playoffs. 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.360 We've got it, and they did, and it was highly 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:29.240 unlikely that that would happen, but still the sort of 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:31.880 you you're in it until you're not in it anymore. 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:34.959 But have you ever seen a game bungled like that 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:36.720 at the end of the end of the game, with 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:39.880 what the Chargers did last week? Matt Like, I've ever 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:40.280 seen that. 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:43.160 I mean, I've also never seen a coach down ten 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:47.920 with two seconds left run the kicker onto the field. 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:51.840 He had the kicker. Somebody had to remind him. And 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.400 this is where I think gambling came in. Somebody got 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:56.360 into a zer and said, hey, by the way, the 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:58.960 line's five and a half. Kick it a field goal. 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:01.760 We don't cover. Oh okay, justin get back out. They're 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:05.199 wunna play. He was gonna kick a field goal down ten. 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:06.800 Yeah, I mean. 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:10.559 This guy is just yeah. I mean, get rid of 0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:13.120 him immediately if you don't don't want to do it now, 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:16.160 immediately after the year is over, because that is a 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:19.480 coveted job. That is an unreal job. With Justin Herbert 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.240 sitting there, speaking of prop bets, if you want to 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:25.520 talk about passing yards for Herbert, I think he's gonna 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:27.280 pass all over the Patriots. I think he's gonna have 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:29.560 a huge game throwing the football. I just I think 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.520 the Patriots are gonna bend, don't break in the red 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:34.120 zone and they're gonna hold him the field goals. And 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.240 then on the other side, I think the Patriots are 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:37.960 going to be able to move the ball enough and 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:39.800 run the ball enough. Eckler coming back is a big 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:41.520 deal for the Chargers. It scares me. I'm not gonna 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.320 do that. But there are some real ticks and tells 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:46.679 when it comes to what Herbert does, and I think 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:49.199 Belichick is gonna take advantage of that. I think Keenan 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.760 Allen will just be swallowed by Stefan Gilmour. 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:53.760 And I think Gilmore is gonna take Allan though, I 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:55.599 mean he comes out of the slot. Would be my 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:56.439 worry about what I. 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:59.000 Mean, historically speaking, that's what's happened. I mean, I mean, 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:01.560 I'll give credit to I'll give credit to the NFL 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:03.760 network for this, but the NFL network has the status 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:06.000 are when these two guys when they play. Gilmore's been 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:08.480 on Keenan Allen. I think he's got three catches on 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:10.280 like fifteen targets. 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.120 Right, Yeah, So well, you know, I mean, look, you 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:14.520 know that what the Patriots do on defense is they 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:16.400 figure out where you want to go, and they manage 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:17.720 to take that away and they force to go to 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:21.640 your secondary options. Really in the end, they again, we 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:23.880 don't we're not we don't know what the number is 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.520 for Herbert, and I love Herbert this week. Of course. 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:28.920 The only thing that worries me a little bit is 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.280 the fact that you know, the Patriots are you know, 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.599 they have the fewest you know, nobody runs and he 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:35.640 plays against them because they run the ball so much. Yeah, 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.440 the clock keeps moving and everything like that. But we'll 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.360 get to the prop bets when numbers come out. Of course, 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:41.440 either way, we both like this game. That's why we 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:42.839 agree on. Let's go to your next one. 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.720 Number two for me, I am going to take a 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.480 number here just like the Rams miles two and a half. 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.480 That number is three for the West Gates. So you 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.800 get a better number here with the DraftKings. And I 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.200 like the hook here with the Texans against the Colts. 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.440 I can't believe this is the game that you're going to, 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.640 but go ahead. Really, you know, so you like you 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.199 like the Colts, well, I mean here's I don't like 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:06.240 the hook. I agree, and I saw you posted it. 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:08.760 I think you retweeted the number in the circle I think, 0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:09.880 and it was three, right. 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:12.240 Yeah, it's three in the Cirkcuts, three and a half 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.119 in the West Gates, three and a half in the DraftKings. 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:17.240 Yeah. So I at three I really like And I've 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.760 locked it in at three for Indy actually because here's 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.480 here's the way I'm thinking that you take away Will Fuller. 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.960 I mean, have you seen Deshaun Watson's numbers? When you 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:28.000 take away Will Fuller is there. 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:28.560 It's it's big. 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:30.440 Who are they gonna throw? 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:32.400 There's a bigger problem. There's a bigger problem. 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:32.840 Go ahead. 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:37.480 The Colts defense is overrated and without COVID, with with 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.280 the COVID issues that they've got still with guys being out, 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:44.160 key guys being out due to COVID. I just these 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.920 games in the AFC South have been shootouts. They've been 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.200 up and down, back and forth. Texans are at home. 0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:52.240 I think it's a three point game, and I think 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:53.920 it's a hook. I think it's the three and a 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:55.840 half and take the home dog at three and a half. 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:57.960 When everyone's gonna be on the Colts, you might by 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:00.640 the time this game kicks, I expect this to be four, 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:03.080 maybe even four and a half for him. Really yeah. 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:04.520 I think everyone's gonna be on the Colts, I think, 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:06.560 I think, and the Colt money is gonna come pouring 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.480 in and everyone's gonna look at because what you're saying, 0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:11.880 everyone knows the will Fuller storyline. Yeah yeah, and everyone's 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:13.680 just gonna run with this will Fuller. Without Will full 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.480 they stink all they had problems with, you know, cheating 0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:18.880 and you know, big shock, their strength coach got busted, 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.240 you know, and now and now everyone's getting busted. So 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.800 it's you know, I just I feel like the storyline's 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.520 going all against what's happening. And I just don't trust 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.120 this indie offense right now because of the injuries that 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.800 they've got and the fact that Rivers is banged up. So, 0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:34.160 I mean, we don't know it's ever gonna play for sure. 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:35.240 We don't even know that's fair. 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:37.760 I mean, does a toe injury, Yeah, he maybe not, 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:39.880 but I assume he's gonna be out there. But I mean, 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.200 you can give it to any one of those three 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.000 backs and just let them run all day long. And 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:47.200 I get that they've got problems on the offensive line 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:48.640 a little bit. I think Kelly is going to come back. 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:51.480 He's practicing fully at least, But I mean the Texans 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.680 can't stop and run. Bradley Roby's out as well. I mean, 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:57.680 you know who's gonna stop Pittman when they do throw it. 0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:59.400 I just don't know how the Texans are going to 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.880 be able to up Indianapolis in this game. And I 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:07.560 you know, Watson is fantastic. Maybe David Johnson comes back 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.960 in this game. But I mean, Kiki q t as 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:12.720 your number two wide receiver. 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:14.920 At Aikins has had a couple of big games. He 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:16.160 was kind of silent last week, but. 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:19.240 Two touchdowns last week. That's he said. 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.520 A couple of head a couple of ripped the Patriots. 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:23.240 I mean, a huge game with the Patriots, and it's 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:25.760 just Shaun Watson. I mean, maybe it's more Watson running 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.240 the football, him picking up first down. I thought wet him. 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:29.680 I thought that was our thing. 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:31.920 I thought, I do hate the Texas. I always, I 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.600 always am wrong with the Texans, except for spots like this, 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.200 because I think the Colts. Everybody thinks this Colts defense 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:38.760 is it's this world beater defense. 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.000 And I'm like you, I mean, they got there, they 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:43.160 got the you know, the Roof blown off last game 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:45.600 against Fighting, so this seems like more of a bounce 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:47.960 back spot for me, for the Colts and the Texans 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:50.760 coming off a big win against a putrid Lions team. 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:52.680 It almost seems like this is a spot to buy 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:54.080 the Colts, not the Texans. 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.200