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Speaker 1: I'm Soger and Jenny. Welcome to Breaking Points. Every week

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Speaker 1: we have four shows for all of you, bringing you

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Speaker 1: the most important stories in the country, especially those that

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Speaker 1: the mainstream media won't touch. So if you want to

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Speaker 1: support what we are up to here, we have a

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Speaker 1: special discount for all of you this month at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com. With that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Krystal? Indeed, we do lots of

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Speaker 1: interesting stories this morning. Of course, we have all the

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Speaker 1: latest from balloon gate. The latest response is the back

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Speaker 1: and forth what Trump is saying now, all kinds of

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Speaker 1: stuff to get into there, even in a UFO tie in. Yes,

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Speaker 1: so we had to. We've got it all for you.

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Speaker 1: Also a new twenty twenty four pole that boy, oh boy,

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Speaker 1: does it look bad for Joe Biden. Looks bad for

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Speaker 1: him with regards to the Democratic base, looks bad for

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Speaker 1: him with regards the general election. He's even losing to

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Speaker 1: Trump now, so we'll give you all of those details.

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Speaker 1: We also have on the Republican side of the equation,

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Speaker 1: the Coke Network looking to jump in behind one candidate

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Speaker 1: that could, of course, reshape that race dramatically. We also

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Speaker 1: have other news from the Democratic primary. They are already

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Speaker 1: aggressively trying to rig it to make sure that Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden does become the nominee. And as you guys may know,

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Speaker 1: we were on the One and Only Joe Rogan podcast

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Speaker 1: last week. Yes, a lot of fun, very always very

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Speaker 1: intense experience, but we have a few of those highlights

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Speaker 1: for you this morning. Here we go. Before we get

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Speaker 1: to any of that, though, Tomorrow is the State of

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Speaker 1: the Union address and we will be covering it here

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Speaker 1: live for you. Our friends Kyle Marshall will both join

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Speaker 1: us as well. Are we getting Ryan and Emily and

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Speaker 1: I don't know, we'll see. We're starting it all out, guys,

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Speaker 1: but that is going to start at eight pm tomorrow night,

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Speaker 1: so make sure you join us here for all of

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Speaker 1: the covers that you are looking for. That's right, we

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Speaker 1: all live stream here on the channel. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be a hell of a lot of fun. We'll watch

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Speaker 1: it all together and then we'll break it out down

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Speaker 1: for you afterwards. So pre and postgame analysis for all

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Speaker 1: of you who are out there. But let's start with

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Speaker 1: balloon Gates so we won't bore you all with the

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Speaker 1: old news now at this point, although we do got

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Speaker 1: to watch it just for amusement's sake. Let's put it

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Speaker 1: up there on the screen. Where's the balloon. It's floating

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Speaker 1: over American territorial waters off of the coast of the Carolinas,

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Speaker 1: popped right there by a fighter pilot, an air to

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Speaker 1: air kill, the first in quite a long time in

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Speaker 1: the history of the US Air Force. So congratulations to

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Speaker 1: that pilot. I know that's a big one in the

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Speaker 1: annals of the US Air Force. However, there has been

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Speaker 1: opened up a lot of questions about this balloon. I'm

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Speaker 1: doing a monologue today about our own use of balloons,

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Speaker 1: balloons used through history. Balloons are awesome, so it's glad

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Speaker 1: to talk about it. But it raises the question of, well,

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Speaker 1: how many times has this happened before? Because, of course,

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Speaker 1: there's been a major partisan break that's come out many

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Speaker 1: Republicans accusing the Biden administration of being soft on China

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Speaker 1: for not shooting down the balloon after its initial detection

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Speaker 1: over the Aleutian Islands. But then secondary questions being asked stuff, well, hey,

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Speaker 1: hold on a second, how many times has this actually

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Speaker 1: happened before. Let's put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: Lucas Thomlinson. He's the Pentagon correspondent for Fox News, So

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Speaker 1: Republicans should at least you know, if you want to

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Speaker 1: doubt somebody, this is a Fox News reporter just saying that,

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Speaker 1: putting it out there. He says a Chinese spy balloon

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Speaker 1: crashed into the Pacific off the coast of Hawaii four

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Speaker 1: months ago. US officials say Fox News has also learned

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Speaker 1: at least one Chinese spy balloon flew over portions of

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Speaker 1: Texas and Florida during the Trump administration. So that is

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Speaker 1: an especially important detail because basically all through the weekend

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Speaker 1: before those revelations came out, Republicans were smashing Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: for being soft on China. We have little bit of

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Speaker 1: a taste of some GOP officials exactly talking about that.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. This entire episode telegraphed weakness to

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Speaker 1: she and the Chinese government. And to illustrate why, I

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Speaker 1: would just ask one hypothetical question. Imagine how this would

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Speaker 1: have played out if nobody had to get any pictures

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Speaker 1: of the balloon, if nobody in Montana had looked up

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Speaker 1: and noticed this giant balloon. If it wasn't in the news.

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Speaker 1: We know that when the Biden administration knew about the balloon,

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Speaker 1: they said nothing, They did nothing, They didn't shoot it down,

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Speaker 1: And at the end of the day, I think the

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Speaker 1: only reason they shot it down is because it made

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Speaker 1: it into the news and they felt forced to as

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Speaker 1: a matter of politics rather than national security. That the

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Speaker 1: Pentagon says that they know of the Chinese doing this

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Speaker 1: at least four other times previously, once at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the Biden administration, three times during the Trump administration.

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Speaker 1: It seems to be you're saying, oh, you're saying no,

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Speaker 1: that's not true. But in any case, is the no,

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Speaker 1: it's the different things, Okay, Well, the difference is this,

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Speaker 1: are we aware Have we seen the Chinese fly these

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Speaker 1: balloons in the past. Yes, I think there's even Twitter

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Speaker 1: pictures of it flying at one point off the coast

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Speaker 1: of the US down south somewhere. That the existence of

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Speaker 1: the balloons is not a mystery to people in that field.

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Speaker 1: What we've never seen what is unprecedented, and whoever the

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Speaker 1: source was at the Department of Defense would have to

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Speaker 1: anowledge that what is unprecedented is a balloon flight that

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Speaker 1: entered over Idaho and flow over Montana over all these

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Speaker 1: sensitive military installations, air Force baces, ICBM fields right across

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Speaker 1: the middle of the country. That has never happened before.

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Speaker 1: That is unprecedented. That it flew bri over some part

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Speaker 1: of the US or kind of in the US, that's

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Speaker 1: one thing. But what we saw this week some precedented,

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Speaker 1: and that's why everyone's reacting the way they're reacting. We've

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Speaker 1: never seen this, so this is no comparison to anything

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Speaker 1: that may have happened up to this point. So lots

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Speaker 1: of jockeying in the press. Would Trump has shot it down?

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Speaker 1: You know, Trump would have shot it down, although some

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Speaker 1: may have flown over at this point. Okay, here's what

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Speaker 1: we can say. It does seem based on what Marco

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Speaker 1: Rubio said. You should remember he's one of the members

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Speaker 1: on the Intelligence Committee. He's been very involved in the

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Speaker 1: UFO report. He is accepting as fact that a balloon

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Speaker 1: did overfly the United States at least once during the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration. That's opening up all this discussion. Well, would

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Speaker 1: Trump have shot it down? And honestly, I just wish

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Speaker 1: we would take a step back and be like, well, yeah, wait,

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Speaker 1: how many times has this happened before? That's actually a

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Speaker 1: pretty valid question. And to be fair, the intelligence officials

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Speaker 1: who were in charge during the Trump administration, they say

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Speaker 1: it is totally not true that the balloon did fly,

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Speaker 1: although you know, many people who are privy to the

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Speaker 1: current intelligence are saying it is. So. We have some

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Speaker 1: clips of them saying that this was the DNI. Ratcliffe,

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Speaker 1: the Director of National Intelligence under the Trump for a

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Speaker 1: portion he says that he never learned about this balloon

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Speaker 1: flight while he was in the administration. Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 1: The Department of Defense is claiming that there were three

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Speaker 1: balloons Chinese spy balloons that entered the United Space airspace

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Speaker 1: during the Trump administration and that they were not shot

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Speaker 1: down and they were not disclosed. Can you please tell

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Speaker 1: us the truth and if that's true, well, it's not true.

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Speaker 1: I can refute it. Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper

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Speaker 1: refuted it. Yesterday, a sec former Secretary of State and

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Speaker 1: CIA director Mike Pompeo has refuted it. Who's lying, Crystal,

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Speaker 1: I really don't know. I mean, we got a lot

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Speaker 1: of untrustworthy characters. We got all the Trump intelligence and

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Speaker 1: then he also got the pentagon. I mean, it's not

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Speaker 1: like you necessarily want to take those people at their

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Speaker 1: word and Trump himself. Let's put this up there on

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Speaker 1: the screen for the I guess the final word from

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Speaker 1: the man, he says eight quote never happened and it

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Speaker 1: is fake disinformation. So did the balloon fly over the

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Speaker 1: United States or not. It remains a mystery as to

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Speaker 1: whether that is true, but it is of course opening

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Speaker 1: up all sorts of partisan charges. I personally just found

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Speaker 1: that very amusing that people. I think Fox and Friends

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Speaker 1: did a panel where they said that Biden wasn't going

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Speaker 1: to shoot down the balloon the morning that the balloon

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Speaker 1: was actually shot down because of the Hunter Biden laptop, right,

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Speaker 1: And I was like, well, that's a that's that's that's

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Speaker 1: certainly you take. Let's go with that. And then of

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Speaker 1: course hours later had to be shot down the crow

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Speaker 1: when he actually get shut shoot down the blue I mean, okay, So,

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Speaker 1: first of all, there is some reporting this morning that

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Speaker 1: tries to square the circle between like balloons probably overflew

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Speaker 1: the US from the Chinese during the Trump administration and

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Speaker 1: we didn't know about it. And Trump officials are insisting like, no,

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Speaker 1: this didn't happen, which is that it did happen, but

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Speaker 1: they didn't become aware of it during the trap. Yeah. See,

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Speaker 1: I still have so many questions about this, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: another thing that I will say is I just despise

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Speaker 1: whether it was under the Obama administration, whether it was

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Speaker 1: under the Trump administration, or now what Republicans are saying.

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Speaker 1: I hate this like weakness discourse when it comes to

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Speaker 1: foreign policy, which is so squishy, it's so meaningless. It's just,

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Speaker 1: you know, foreign powers are not pursuing their aims, Like

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Speaker 1: China is not deciding whether or not to invade Taiwan

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Speaker 1: based on what the hell we did with the stupid balloon. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's number one. So that whole discourse really really irritates me.

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Speaker 1: Irritates me, you know when it was under Trump and

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Speaker 1: there was all this discourse about his weakness with regards

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Speaker 1: to Russia and Vladimir Putinen, et cetera. So that's one piece.

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Speaker 1: Another question I still have is like was this intentional

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Speaker 1: from the Chinese because there is huge and significant, I

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Speaker 1: think diplomatic you know, fallout over this. Blincoln was scheduled

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Speaker 1: for a sort of long overdue business trip. This is

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Speaker 1: this trip was kind of designed it. They didn't have

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Speaker 1: any big deliverables or goals on this trip, but one

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Speaker 1: of the goals was actually to try to have lines

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Speaker 1: of communication so that if you had some sort of

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Speaker 1: like domestic mishap or some sort of like weird international

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Speaker 1: diplomatic crisis as the one that is unfolding right now,

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Speaker 1: that it could be more easily diffused. The loss of

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Speaker 1: that trip is actually a real loss. So you're going, okay,

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Speaker 1: Was this intentional on the part of the Chinese? Did

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Speaker 1: they mean to float something over Montana that people could

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Speaker 1: visibly see with their eyes? Was this incompetence? Was this

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Speaker 1: hawkish hardliners in the Chinese government trying to undermine the trip?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's still a lot of quiet.

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Speaker 1: They say this was a weather balloon that went off course.

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Speaker 1: You can make it read into that what you will,

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Speaker 1: But I think there's a lot of questions here over

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Speaker 1: whether this was like an intentional provocation from the Chinese

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Speaker 1: or whether this was just a dumb mishap. Well, it's

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Speaker 1: one of those things where now actually all of that matters,

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Speaker 1: and it's actually on the Biden administration to tell us

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Speaker 1: as much as possible, because if you're going to cause

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Speaker 1: a major diplomatic conflagration over this, then you at least

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Speaker 1: owe us what the intent certainly was. Now here's what

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Speaker 1: we know. The balloon was spotted over Montana, over one

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Speaker 1: of the three bases in the United States where we

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Speaker 1: keep intercontinental ballistic missiles. Little teas from my monologue. I

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Speaker 1: actually learned this for research, which is that we also

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Speaker 1: are investing heavily in spy balloons. Many other nations are

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Speaker 1: as well. They're able to remain static over the target.

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Speaker 1: And actually our balloon program is specifically designed around hypersonic missiles.

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Speaker 1: So I know that the United States is currently developing

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Speaker 1: hypersonic missiles in response to hypersonic missile development with China

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Speaker 1: and Russia. So it's possible that they are trying to

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Speaker 1: use balloons for the exact same reason, and that case

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Speaker 1: it certainly would be pretty provocative. On the other hand, look,

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Speaker 1: it's very possible that they've done this a couple of

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Speaker 1: times before. Many nations have spy balloons that are floating

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Speaker 1: around the world, mostly the great power nations, and how

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Speaker 1: many Maybe we just learned about it because in this

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Speaker 1: particular case, it was spotted by a commercial jetliner. So

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Speaker 1: it was like, hey, what is that? Well, people in

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Speaker 1: Montana can see it with their naked eyes, right right,

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Speaker 1: So I mean that again, if that's intentional, this is

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Speaker 1: some gall right ahead of important diplomatic visit that you know,

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Speaker 1: they'd been long in preparations for the piece of information.

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Speaker 1: That makes me feel like this was more probably some

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Speaker 1: incompetence or dumb mishap, or somebody trying to subvert this trip.

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Speaker 1: The more hawkish elements is the fact that when the

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Speaker 1: existence of the balloon was first report, the first thing

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Speaker 1: they did was deny it. But then once they acknowledged

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Speaker 1: it and you know, spun their story about oh it's

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Speaker 1: a weather balloon and fear enough of course whatever, it

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Speaker 1: was notable to me that they apologized, and that indicated

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Speaker 1: I mean, if I was leaning in one direction, that

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Speaker 1: sort of indicated to me that, all right, they didn't

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Speaker 1: really this went awry. This was not the way that

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Speaker 1: they wanted things to go. Now. I'm not saying that

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Speaker 1: it wasn't a spy balloon. It obviously was. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying that they didn't intend to float it over Montana,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. But I don't think that they perhaps meant

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Speaker 1: for it to be this blatant and this obvious, because look,

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Speaker 1: the one thing Ted Cruz said here that I do

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Speaker 1: actually agree with is this does all come down to politics,

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Speaker 1: and it does all come down to optics, because it's

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Speaker 1: no mystery that China spying on us and we're spying

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Speaker 1: on them. We know that they have these spy satellites

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Speaker 1: that are probably able to gather just as much data

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Speaker 1: as as freaking balloon was. The problem is when it's

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Speaker 1: so in your faith that it prompts an entire nation

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Speaker 1: to focus on it and say, okay, guys, what are

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Speaker 1: you doing about this? And what is this? Ultimately, well,

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Speaker 1: it is a motive. I mean, can we not help

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Speaker 1: but say, look, I don't know why there's a difference

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Speaker 1: there just is between a spot a satellite that's up

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Speaker 1: in international space and one that's literally sixty thousand feet

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Speaker 1: up barely in the stratosphere right over an ICBM site

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Speaker 1: that's overflying America. I mean, if you think back to

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Speaker 1: the spot Nick moment and what that feeling was like

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Speaker 1: for a lot of Americans, I think it comes down

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Speaker 1: to a fundamental nation of security and especially the fact

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Speaker 1: that it is our country. On whether though it was

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Speaker 1: intentional or not, I don't know, because actually I was

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Speaker 1: thinking back to the nineteen sixty U two incident. So

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Speaker 1: if we get back to that, when Francis Scurity Powers

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Speaker 1: was shot down over the Soviet Union, he actually was

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Speaker 1: shot down at seventy thousand feet, what did we say.

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Speaker 1: We're like, oh, it is a routine geographic mission, geological

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Speaker 1: survey that went off course into the Soviet Union. But

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Speaker 1: it was unmanned. There was nobody on it because I

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Speaker 1: thought it was dead, and then he was alive and

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Speaker 1: it was like, yeah it was. It was a spy flight,

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Speaker 1: and then we had to the whole bridge of spies

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Speaker 1: things to eventually get back Yes, Eyes and krush Jev.

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Speaker 1: It actually sets some bad relations going into the Cuban

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Speaker 1: missile crisis a year later, okay, so or a couple

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Speaker 1: of years later. So the point is is that sometimes

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Speaker 1: these are routine military missions, and then what happens on

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Speaker 1: routine military missions, stuff goes wrong. As to whether it

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Speaker 1: was drifting off course, the more of research into this,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe it for a second. So I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you why Crystal our own balloons and as I understand

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Speaker 1: over the high text by balloons that now exists in

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Speaker 1: the twenty first century. They have a high rate of maneuverability.

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Speaker 1: They actually have software on board that incorporates wind patterns

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Speaker 1: so that they're able to determine their course and all that.

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Speaker 1: The idea that it was blown off course is ludicrous.

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Speaker 1: It has actual like, it has the ability to maneuver

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Speaker 1: and its own engine on board the balloon itself. So

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Speaker 1: let me ask you this, since you've gone deeper into

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Speaker 1: the spy balloon, the history and anals and current capabilities

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Speaker 1: that I have, what about the alta Because what strikes

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Speaker 1: me as so brazen about this is that random people

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Speaker 1: standing on the ground in Montana could see this thing

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Speaker 1: like would it normally be at such a high altitude

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Speaker 1: that you wouldn't be able to So that's the part

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Speaker 1: that to me, I'm like, maybe that was unintentional, because

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Speaker 1: I do think that if they had done a better

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Speaker 1: job sort of like covering their ass and like they

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Speaker 1: did in the Trump administration flying the balloons, but nobody

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Speaker 1: really notices whatever, you wouldn't have this whole diplomatic fault.

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Speaker 1: A lot of it is determinative weather. But again, our

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Speaker 1: own balloons fly at the exact same altitude. Our balloons

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Speaker 1: fly at sixty to ninety thousand feet. This balloon was

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Speaker 1: reportedly detected right at sixty thousand feet, which you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're taking photos, probably better to be lower so

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Speaker 1: you can get as high resolution as possible. A lot

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Speaker 1: of the visibility from the naked eye, that more has

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Speaker 1: to do with weather conditions on the particular day from

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Speaker 1: what I understand, especially also if you consider even if

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Speaker 1: it wasn't visible from the naked eye from the ground,

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Speaker 1: which it was in some cases this time, commercial jetliner

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Speaker 1: is a whole other one. And that's where my question

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Speaker 1: and to everybody who operates these balloons, which is, you

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Speaker 1: know commercial airline are flies at what thirty five thousand,

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Speaker 1: forty thousand feet? It's only twenty thousand feet away from

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Speaker 1: this balloon, like obviously they're going to be able to see,

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Speaker 1: and visibility up there is totally different than visibility from

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Speaker 1: the ground. I know aviators are probably rolling their eyes

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Speaker 1: at me. I'm sorry. You know, it's based on my

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Speaker 1: limited research from what I can tell, But the idea

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Speaker 1: or that it was brazen to fly at sixty thousand

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Speaker 1: from what I can tell that's actually a normal altitude

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Speaker 1: for a spy balloon. So really I think they got

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Speaker 1: caught and that's it's really just like the U two

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Speaker 1: incident where it was a routine mission. Part of the

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Speaker 1: reason why they probably didn't think it was brazen is

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Speaker 1: they're like, hey, we do it all the time. Who

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Speaker 1: knows how many balloons? Also, this is what we're about

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Speaker 1: to get to, how these are just the ones that

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Speaker 1: we know about how many flew over that we have

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Speaker 1: no idea because something I take away and have taken

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Speaker 1: away from a lot of my UFO research and reading

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Speaker 1: as not only that but also on missile technology, the

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Speaker 1: idea that we have a perfect clue of what's happening

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Speaker 1: outside of commercial space. It's just completely not true. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Like it's an It's as much as we like the

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Speaker 1: idea of technology, you know, it's a big country and

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of Arab sky up there. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I guess that to me is maybe the most likely

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Speaker 1: explanation is like they do these things all the time,

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Speaker 1: and so they didn't think to, you know, to break

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Speaker 1: up the routine, given that we had this visit with

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Speaker 1: Blincoln coming. They just kept doing the thing. That they

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Speaker 1: normally do. It just so happens this time for whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: it was so obvious that they got caught. That's the

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Speaker 1: best I can figure out with here. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think there's a couple other pieces to comment on. Number One,

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Speaker 1: you know, within the Biden administration, there is kind of

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Speaker 1: a tug of war between various factions in terms of

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Speaker 1: how they want to approach China, a more collaborative approach.

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Speaker 1: You know, this diplomatic mission from Blincoln sort of reflective

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Speaker 1: of that desire to work together, especially on issues like

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Speaker 1: the climate crisis. Is there are others who are more hawkish,

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Speaker 1: and you know, this sort of like strengthens their hand

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Speaker 1: within the administration. That's one thing to say and then

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Speaker 1: the other thing to say here, which frankly I think

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Speaker 1: is unfortunate, is I mean, this is Cold War two

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Speaker 1: point zero. It has the exact same vibes of some

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Speaker 1: you know, a spy mission gone off course, major diplomatic

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Speaker 1: blow up, potential, you know, long term fallout, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: And I think it's a real sign of the times

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Speaker 1: that we're living in. It's possible. I'm a little bit

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Speaker 1: more hopeful stuff like this happens. You know I've talked

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Speaker 1: here about for the April two thousand and one hen

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Speaker 1: Island incident where a US Navy spy plane actually collided

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Speaker 1: with the Chinese plane in the middle of the air.

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Speaker 1: The Navy blames the Chinese, the Chinese blame US. I

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Speaker 1: don't know what happened anyway, the plane itself was forced

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Speaker 1: it down che on Chinese airspace. It caused a big,

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Speaker 1: major diplomatic incident. But you know, people got over it.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, well this is back in what two thousands,

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Speaker 1: that was two thousand and one has actually happed right

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Speaker 1: before nine to eleven. It caused a huge crisis with China.

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Speaker 1: The pilots, they wanted him to apologize. We were like, no,

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Speaker 1: they're not going to apologize because you're a pilot is

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Speaker 1: the one who our guide guide It was all time

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Speaker 1: in terms of Chinese development and our relationship fees of it. Look, also,

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Speaker 1: this is a choice on them, like if they want

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Speaker 1: to make this into a whole thing about the look,

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Speaker 1: you know that they would shoot down one of ours

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Speaker 1: if they detected it and it became a domestic incident too, Like,

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Speaker 1: don't get all higher holier than that. The whole point

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Speaker 1: is with these things, as they found out with Hinan

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Speaker 1: Island why they were buzzing our aircraft. It's like, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you can see it and if you

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Speaker 1: can detect it, you're going to be aggressive towards it

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Speaker 1: whenever it's your airspace. So I don't want to hear it.

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Speaker 1: I guess, I guess the best hope, as you're pointing out,

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Speaker 1: is that everybody is sort of like acting out their

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Speaker 1: part of what they feel like they need to do

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Speaker 1: to appease their own domestic populace. Right the Biden administration,

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Speaker 1: ultimately they bring this thing down, you know, over the Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: they're able to collect whatever they're able to collect and

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Speaker 1: sort of, you know, posture their way they have to

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Speaker 1: for the mess pot We're tough and we're not going

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Speaker 1: to let this happen, et cetera, et cetera. And the

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Speaker 1: Chinese put out their statement sort of Bellico statement, like

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Speaker 1: being upset about the fact that we shot it down,

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Speaker 1: but us. The hope is that everybody behind the scenes

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Speaker 1: kind of knows this is the part they have to

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Speaker 1: play and they don't really have another joy. And the

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00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 1: real test is when the visit happens, how does that

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00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 1: visit go, are they going to snub Anthony Blincoln like

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Speaker 1: they snub President Obama in two thousand and eight. Are

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Speaker 1: we going to have engagement or are we going to

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00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,719
Speaker 1: have a stuff that actually matters? Probably even more so,

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Speaker 1: although of course, you know, we can't deny that this

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Speaker 1: isn't going to play a part. Yeah, it's a lot. This,

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Speaker 1: the uh circumventing of this, the undermining of this particular

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Speaker 1: visit is a loss. Hopefully they're able to get it

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Speaker 1: rescheduled a not too distant future. Absolutely, Okay, let's go

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Speaker 1: to the next one here and let's put this up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen. So we had to have a

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Speaker 1: little UFO tie in, and a lot of my UFO

416
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Speaker 1: friends were talking quite a bit about this, which is

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Speaker 1: that the previous UFO report actually specifically pointed to foreign

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Speaker 1: powers who are aerial spying, and specifically the possibility of

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Speaker 1: Chinese and Russian balloons which had previously entered the United States. However,

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Speaker 1: I do want to kind of break this down and

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Speaker 1: talk a little bit about it because some people were saying, actually,

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Speaker 1: this vindicates the fact that all these UFO incidents are

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Speaker 1: really just Chinese spy balloons or Russian spy balloons or

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00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 1: you know, spy aircraft or drones or whatever of some kind.

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Speaker 1: First of all, many of the incidents that have occurred

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Speaker 1: and happened on camera are ones which don't appear to

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Speaker 1: have nearly the same let's just say propulsion as a

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Speaker 1: normal balloon, not necessarily propulsion known to humankind. That also, though,

429
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 1: what many people were talking about is they were pointing

430
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 1: to the fact that when they know that it's a

431
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:32,479
Speaker 1: Chinese balloon, very they can say when they know it's Chinese,

432
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,119
Speaker 1: compared to when they pretend that it's something else, it

433
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 1: gets wall to wall coverage, it gets a statement of condemnation,

434
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 1: the cancelation of the visits, and a clear identification, where

435
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: in the past what they have pointed to is they're like, well,

436
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 1: maybe it's Chinese or maybe it's Russian. Well, clearly, what

437
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,679
Speaker 1: do we learn from this balloon. It has Chinese letters

438
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 1: on the side, so you know it's at sixty thousand feet,

439
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 1: So clearly, if it's a Chinese balloon, it's not that

440
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 1: hard to figure out that it's a Chinese balloon. I'm

441
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 1: gonna presume the same Russia, and probably the same with

442
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 1: American spy balloon. So kind of the UFO takeaway that

443
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 1: my friend Jeremy Corbel highlighted was that if you think

444
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: about what it's like when an actual spy balloon overflies

445
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 1: the United States and our ability to clearly and almost

446
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: immediately identify it, if they were able to do that

447
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 1: in the past with respect to hundreds now of UFO incidents,

448
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,199
Speaker 1: they would because it's actually not that hard to attribute

449
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 1: whether these things are or not. And I think the

450
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 1: second part to this is, and this gets to what

451
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: I alluded to earlier, I think one of the only

452
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 1: reasons that we even know about the last couple of

453
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 1: balloons is because of a lot of interest in the

454
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 1: UFO phenomenon UAPs, and because the whole push for transparency was, hey, guys,

455
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 1: we have all this data, but nobody's analyzing it. Nobody's

456
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 1: really looking on at what's going on up there. There's

457
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: a lot of pilots over the years who have reported

458
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 1: sketchy things going on. Most of the time they were

459
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 1: encouraged to just sit down and to not talk about it.

460
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 1: And so one of the reasons why we're able to say, oh,

461
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 1: one crash four months ago, or it happened during the

462
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 1: Trump administration, well, two thousand seventeen is when this whole

463
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: thing even broke open. That's whenever we were even trying

464
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 1: to start paying attention to this guys. And actually part

465
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 1: of the push for the whole transparency was you don't

466
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 1: know what else you're gonna find up there. Yeah, that's

467
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: what a lot Marco Rubio and other UFO transparency figures

468
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: who've been pushing for it. Their whole case has been

469
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: this is a matter of national security, as we just

470
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: found out. I really do believe, and I look, I

471
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of evidence, as just a hunch

472
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 1: based on what I've read on this and everything. I

473
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 1: think if this happens in twenty fifteen, this thing flies

474
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 1: over and we have no idea, I really do, it's

475
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: possible not, but I think I think not, just because

476
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 1: people on the ground in Montana were like, what the

477
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 1: hell is this? And there was the ground stop at

478
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,239
Speaker 1: the airport in Montana, But who knows. I mean, you

479
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: have the numbers here. Since twenty twenty one, the Pentagon

480
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 1: has examined three hundred and sixty six incidents that were

481
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 1: initially unexplained and said one hundred and sixty three were balloons.

482
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 1: So not anywhere closed to all of those, and they

483
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: say a handful of those involved events surveillance balloons, but

484
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 1: none of them were conducting persistent reconnaissance of the US

485
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 1: militi Harry Basis. They also say, though that a lot

486
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 1: of times if the US government immediately identifies this as

487
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: a spy balloon, well of course that's not included in

488
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: the Unidentified Aerial phenomenon tracking, So it does this report

489
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: does raise a lot of questions of like, Okay, we're

490
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: learning about like this incident now and maybe like three

491
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 1: max incidents during the Trump administration, but this report suggests

492
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: that there was a lot more going on than even

493
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 1: what is being reported at this point. Happened during the

494
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: Trump administration and happened now. They also say that of

495
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 1: the one hundred and seventy one reports that were not

496
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: attributed to balloon's, drones or airborne trash some quote, appear

497
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: to have demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities and

498
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: require further analysis. To your point, Soccer, of like when

499
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 1: it's a balloon, they can tell it's a freaking balloon.

500
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 1: It's not that hard for them to be able to

501
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: figure it out. Maybe someone who's untrained initially is like,

502
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,479
Speaker 1: what the hell is that? Right, but then once they

503
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: actually do the research, it was not particularly difficult for

504
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: them to figure out it was a weather balloon, is

505
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 1: spy balloon? Whatever. There you go. So there's the UFO

506
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: Ale had to get that in. Yeah, all right, guys,

507
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 1: we have some new polling here that is fairly devastating

508
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 1: for Joe Biden and for the Democrats. Let's go ahead

509
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen. This is from

510
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: the Washington Post in ABC News. You have now, in

511
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: a theoretical general election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden,

512
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: something almost no one actually wants. Donald Trump now beating

513
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,959
Speaker 1: Joe Biden by three points. Now, that is within the

514
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: margin of error, but a significant move towards Trump. Five

515
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 1: point swing towards Trump since just September. The numbers among

516
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: independents are particularly bad. There you have Trump over Biden

517
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: by nine points. The DC wisdom, conventional wisdom after the

518
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: midterm election was that Trump is extremely weak. Biden has

519
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 1: really strengthened his hand. He outperformed expectations. Yes, Republicans took

520
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 1: the House, but Democrats were able to not only hold

521
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: onto the Senate, but actually pick up the seat. This

522
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: defied recent history. So he is in a great position

523
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: to get re elected. This poll, among others, says otherwise.

524
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 1: And Trump even with January sixth, fake electors and investigations

525
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: into his business, going back to investigations in the stormy

526
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 1: Daniels again and the whole classified documents scandal, which of

527
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 1: course now Biden having some similar problems as kind of

528
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: muddy the waters on. Still, you cannot write this man off.

529
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: If there's one thing we have learned over the years,

530
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 1: is that you just cannot write off Donald Trump and Biden.

531
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 1: In spite of that conventional wisdom saying that he is

532
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: in a much stronger position, he actually is in a

533
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: weaker position according to this pole and according to some

534
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 1: other numbers, than he was before the general election. There

535
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: are some other numbers in here too soccer that are

536
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: just damning. So I mentioned that basically no one wants

537
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 1: the Trump Biden rematch, even though we look very likely

538
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: to head to the Trump Biden rematch, though a lot

539
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 1: of things could happen between now and then. You've got

540
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: only fewer than two in ten who are enthusiastic about Trump.

541
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: That's seventeen percent of the overall electorate. Just seven percent

542
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: of the overall electorate enthusiastic about Biden. If you drill

543
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: down to just the Democratic Party, Okay, Democrats, who almost

544
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 1: all say they would did vote for him, will vote

545
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: for him whatever. You know, what percent are enthusiastic about

546
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. Sixteen percent of Democrats are like, let's go

547
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. This is incredible weakness from the incoming president. Yeah,

548
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 1: it's a tough one to read, because what do you

549
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: take away from this? Most Republicans don't want Trump, most

550
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: Democrats don't want Biden. Most people will vote for both

551
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 1: of those candidates if they're nominated, and majority of people

552
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: say they would actually be pretty dissatisfied or angry if

553
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: Biden were reelected, and a lot of the same people

554
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: say the exact same thing about Trump. This is as

555
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: clear of a broken political system as you can possibly get.

556
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: There's hours of discussions that we could have about this,

557
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 1: about the move to party primaries, about what different types

558
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: of elections and all that look like. But let's all

559
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 1: be real that ain't any gonna happen in the next

560
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: two years. This is what we got. Most likely, it

561
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: is the result that we have, and you know, I

562
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 1: just can't help but look at the nine point margin

563
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 1: that Trump has with independence and say, you better be worried.

564
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 1: What did we point to in the GOP? In the

565
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 1: GOP performance in November, Sure, it was skinny in the House,

566
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: didn't work out in the Senate. They still won the

567
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: popular vote. Guys, that doesn't happen all that often. In fact,

568
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 1: the last time that the Republicans had won the popular vote,

569
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,120
Speaker 1: I believe, was like two thousand and four. And then,

570
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 1: even if you think about a presidential election, four remains

571
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 1: the only popular vote election that a Republican president has

572
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: had since the year two thousand and that's the last

573
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 1: twenty three years. We'll see how exactly it goes in

574
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. So what does this mean? I would

575
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: look at this, and again I just come back to

576
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 1: I don't know why this apparently is a controversial point.

577
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 1: Don't underestimate the guy who got elected the president and

578
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: almost run reelection. Yeah, Like, why is that such a

579
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 1: Everybody's like, oh, old Donnie, he's got what do we

580
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: always say? Look, he was dead to rights, indicted, gun

581
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: to his head, he was done. And then the Biden

582
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: classified documents say happen. You can never underestimate this man,

583
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 1: not even in terms of his own doing, but in

584
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: the way circumstances always come about and make things a

585
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 1: lot more nuanced and complicated than before. So I look

586
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: at that and remember this. Look. It's also hard because

587
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: the polls were so significantly off in the Republican direction

588
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, But if you were to look

589
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: at a statistical average of Trump's appearance on the ballot,

590
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: it would tell you that in general he overperforms rather

591
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: than underformed. Yes, maybe stop the steel changes that, as

592
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: we saw in twenty twenty two, certainly could maybe lower

593
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: inflation and better jobs numbers for Joe Biden to a

594
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: year or and a half or so from now. Maybe

595
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: that changes it. I have, you know, maybe a war

596
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: in Ukraine ans. We have no clue as to what

597
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: the major factors are as things stand right now. I

598
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: just take away, don't underestimate Trump. It is anybody's ballgame. Yeah,

599
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: I think that's what you have to look at this,

600
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean, there's only so much we can

601
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: read into polls at this point because we did sort

602
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: of have this consistent rule of thumb up until these

603
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: midterm elections of like, yeah, they tend to lean more

604
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 1: Democratic than what the actual reality is. We had a

605
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 1: reversal of that in the midterms. One theory you could

606
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: put forward, though, I mean, Donald Trump was not on

607
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: the ballot technically in twenty twenty two, and his core base,

608
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: even if you look at how he's doing within the

609
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: Republican primary, continues to be with non college educated, white

610
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: working class voters. And there is one polling theory that

611
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: those are exactly the people who tend to be reflected

612
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: the least in the polling data. Now is that's still

613
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: the case. I just really literally don't know at this point.

614
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: But if you wanted to write out a theory of

615
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 1: why Trump may be stronger than what the poll numbers reflect,

616
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: I think that's where you would start. Just digging into

617
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: these numbers. Little go and put this next piece up

618
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: on the screen. This the Washington Post right up. They

619
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 1: It was kind of funny what they chose to highlight,

620
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: but anyway, their headline as few Americans are excited about

621
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: a Biden Trump rematch post ABC poll fines, and they

622
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: dig into exactly how Biden is doing which with which

623
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 1: demographics in the Democratic Party, and they say he's weakest

624
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents who are under forty

625
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: years old, So he's weakest with young Democrats, sixty nine

626
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: percent of whom say the party should nominate someone else.

627
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: Black Democrats just narrowly prefer nominating Biden forty seven percent

628
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,479
Speaker 1: over someone else forty one percent, which, you know, this

629
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: continues to be one of his stronger constituencies. But even

630
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 1: with this group that is supposed to be the core

631
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: of his base, they're kind of split fairly close to

632
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty about whether they want this dude again,

633
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: And sixty four percent of white Democrats want someone other

634
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: than Biden. The point I really want to underscore here, Sager,

635
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: is that the disenchantment with Biden on the Democratic base

636
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 1: goes much further than just progressives, who of course have

637
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: never been particularly excite about or enthusiastic about abiden presidency.

638
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: It goes much further than just young Democrats, who again

639
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 1: have been his some of his biggest critics and were

640
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: certainly deeply skeptical of him during the Democratic primary in

641
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: twenty twenty. This is across the board, a lot of

642
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: normy Lib Democrats of all races, ages, demographic groups, etc.

643
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: Who I think have this instinct of like, you know,

644
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: they don't hate the guy, but they're like, I just

645
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: you're going to be old. Yeah, I don't know if

646
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: you're up to it. I think that's the bottom line. Like,

647
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: I don't know if you're going to be the guy

648
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: to beat Trump. I don't know if you're really capable

649
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: of handling this thing for another four years. And oh,

650
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: by the way, we've seen your vice president Kamala Harris,

651
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: and we don't have a lot of confidence in her

652
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: ability either to win or to be able to effectively

653
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: govern if you don't end up making it through the

654
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: next term. Absolutely right, Okay, So this has all led

655
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,479
Speaker 1: to an interesting moment from our Secretary of Transportation, the

656
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: one and only Mayor Pete Budajeg, who was pressed on

657
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: some of these numbers and how the Democratic base is

658
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: feeling about Joe Biden. He got a little testy about

659
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: some of this. Let's take a listen soon. Do you

660
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: expect the president to announce he's running for reelection? That's

661
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: out of my lane and above my pay grade. At

662
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: the same time, what I know is that whether we're

663
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: ting you want him to run, do you want him

664
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: to run again. I mean, you saw our poll gave

665
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: the large number of Democrats say they don't want him

666
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: to run again. He is an absolutely historically successful president,

667
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: and I want to see that continue again. I do

668
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: want him to run again. When I'm appearing in this capacity,

669
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: I can't talk campaigns and elections, but let me say this,

670
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: I'm incredibly proud to be part of this team that

671
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: he has built. So little testing, you're really selling it there,

672
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: absolutely historic president. I mean no secret that this dude

673
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: wants to make another run. So you know what he

674
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: would like to see is either I mean, I don't

675
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: think he really cares whether Biden wins again or whether

676
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 1: he loses, because ultimately he's setting himself up to run

677
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight. One side drama with Pete is

678
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 1: the fact that, no secret, he struggled with voters of

679
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: color throughout the Democratic primary. So the rearranging of the

680
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: Democratic primary stations we're going to get to in a

681
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: little bit, putting South Carolina first, it's actually really bad

682
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: for Pete to tennis. I mean, he did well in Iowa,

683
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: he did well in New Hampshire. That lineup for him

684
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: last time around was kind of the best possible scenario

685
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: for him to be able to get off the ground.

686
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: Putting South Carolina first is kind of devastating to his

687
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: chances for the future, no question. Actually think I've been

688
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: thinking about that a lot. Just I think that this

689
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: really rigs things in an establishment direction for all time

690
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: to come. For the Democratic primary, if you consider Bernie

691
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 1: Sanders and his major over performances in Iowa and in

692
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, he never did particularly well in South Carolina,

693
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: although he probably did better than if he had gone

694
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: up first Obama. There's very little evidence to show that

695
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 1: Obama ever would have won the Democratic nomination if they

696
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 1: had started in South Carolina and he hadn't proven that

697
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: he could win in Iowa and at least comes second

698
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. Even if I go back to Bill Clinton,

699
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton very likely would not have one in the

700
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two Democratic primary. So this basically makes it

701
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,959
Speaker 1: whoever the establishment rubber stamps, they're almost certainly going to win. Yeah,

702
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: I mean certainly. And we'll get to more of that

703
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: and the dynamics there in a little bit. But you know,

704
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: Pete's comments to me are reflective of the fact that

705
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: before the midterm election, you had some wavering among even

706
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 1: Democratic elected officials. We played a bunch of them here,

707
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: of even people like Jerry Nadler, who's like longtime senior

708
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: House Democrat, as establishment as they come, expressing reservations. You

709
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 1: had people out and out saying that they thought they

710
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 1: should go with a different candidate. That was a pretty

711
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 1: wild break in terms of an incumbent president and the

712
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 1: amount of elected Democratic officials you had who either wouldn't

713
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 1: say or actually went out there and were like, let's

714
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: go in another direction. The midterm election results have clearly

715
00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: shored up Biden's support among Democratic elected officials and Democratic

716
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 1: Party elites, no doubt about it. But they did nothing

717
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 1: for him with the base. They did nothing for him

718
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 1: with the general electorate. So you now have this kind

719
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: of disconnect where no one is going to challenge Biden

720
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 1: in terms of establish elected Democratic officials. There were some

721
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 1: that were kind of sniffing around a little bit before

722
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 1: the midterms. I don't think they were ever going to

723
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: actually jump in against him. Now that is completely closed off.

724
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 1: They have completely closed ranks, and yet you still have vast,

725
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: vast disaffection both within the Democratic base and with the

726
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 1: nation at large. So he's heading into this should be

727
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: some of the strongest times for him. You know, after

728
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: he did defy history with his midterm results, this should

729
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: be you know, he got a few things accomplished in

730
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: the first two years. He should have about the strongest

731
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 1: hand that he could play. And this is what it

732
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 1: ultimately looks like. Approval rating hasn't budged. Losing to Donald

733
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: Trump after all of this, it's really pathetic. Oh, certainly Trump,

734
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 1: he's not going down without a fight, and he's basically

735
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 1: reverting right back to the twenty sixteen playbook. Let's move

736
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 1: on to the next one here, and let's put this

737
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. Trump will not commit to

738
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: backing the GOP nominee in twenty twenty four. This was

739
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 1: from an interview that he gave with radio host Hugh Hewitt.

740
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: He said, Hugh Hewitt ask him, will you support whoever

741
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 1: wins the party's nomination? Trump announced, he said, quote it

742
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: would depend. It would have to depend on who the

743
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: nominee was. Now, obviously it's not an unprecedented situation. I

744
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: would say for mister Trump, it really is more of

745
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 1: a return to probably one of the most iconic moments

746
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 1: of the twenty sixteen presidential primary, which it couldn't help

747
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 1: remind me of. Let's take a listen and relive that.

748
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: Is there anyone on stage and can I see Hans

749
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: who is unwilling tonight to pledge your support to the

750
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 1: eventual nominee of the Republican Party and pledge to not

751
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: run an independent campaign against that person. We're looking for

752
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: you to raise your hand, now, raise your hand now

753
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: if you won't make that pledge tonight, mister Trump, So

754
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 1: I cannot say I have to respect the person that

755
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 1: if it's not me, the person that wins. If I

756
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 1: do win, and I'm leading bike quite a bit, that's

757
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: what I want to do. I can totally make that pledge.

758
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 1: If I'm the nominee, I will pledge I will not

759
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: run as an independent. But and I am discussing it

760
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 1: with everybody, but I'm talking about a lot of leverage.

761
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 1: We want to win, and we will win, but I

762
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: want to win as the Republican. I want to run

763
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 1: as the Republican nominee. God, I feel like that was

764
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 1: literally yesterday. I know, iconic. If you bake it into

765
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: the overall GOP primary and what that's all going to

766
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: look like. We haven't even been on the air since

767
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: this happened. But allegedly Nikki Haley is supposedly going to

768
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: announce that she's going to run against Trump on February fifteenth.

769
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,879
Speaker 1: We'll see. I think she's a born loser candidate. We'll

770
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: see how that exactly works out for her. But the

771
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: real threat is going to be Rohn DeSantis, of course,

772
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 1: which you've been covering a lot. And even if DeSantis

773
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: is not firing at Trump, Trump is just absolutely unloading

774
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 1: on him any chance that he gets. Let's put this

775
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. This is my personal favorite.

776
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 1: Also from the Hugh Hewett interview, he said that DeSantis

777
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: had tears in his eyes as he begged for an endorsement. Quote,

778
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 1: he was dead, he was leaving the race. He came

779
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,760
Speaker 1: over and he begged me, begged me for an endorsement.

780
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: He said, if you endorse me, I'll win. There were

781
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: tears coming down from his eyes. And here's the thing

782
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: I say, Trump is not wrong. DeSantis was down in

783
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 1: the GOP presidential primary. As I think I've told this

784
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 1: story many times, but I interviewed Trump the day after

785
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 1: the midterm elections in twenty and eighteen or maybe like

786
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 1: two days after something like that, and he all he

787
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: wanted to talk about was DeSantis. He's like, look at

788
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 1: this guy. He's like, he's nothing without me. He was

789
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,760
Speaker 1: down by this, he was up by thirty one points

790
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: when Trump endorses him, because it's all about Trump, and

791
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: you know, that is kind of a potent attack that

792
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 1: he has Againsttis. DeSantis continues to deflect. Old friend Henry

793
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: Rodgers asked him a question about this over at the

794
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,399
Speaker 1: press conference down in Florida, and DeSantis was like, look,

795
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 1: you know, I'm getting firing from all sides and people

796
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 1: are criticizing, but enough with the politics. We're all just

797
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 1: move on and ultimately that's up to the voters. And

798
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 1: he talks about again his resounding win in the state

799
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 1: of Florida, which is also going to be a very

800
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: potent feather in his cap but Ron, the sanctimonious attacks

801
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: and all of that on Trump's truth have continued and

802
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: continue up until this day, all throughout this even when

803
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: the man hasn't even announced he's running with Nikki Haley.

804
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: He also talked about her, essentially branding her as disloyal.

805
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: He was like, she said that she wouldn't run against

806
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: me again. I don't think that this woman has a

807
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 1: chance in hell. But good luck, I guess enjoy the

808
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 1: one day of good press that you're going to get

809
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: if he made some similar comments about Mike Pence, about

810
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: how he made Mike and he does nothing before him, etc. So,

811
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 1: I mean, this is definitely Trump getting back into fighting

812
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 1: form here, no doubt about it. The comments about him

813
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 1: being unwilling to commit to backing the nominee in twenty

814
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,799
Speaker 1: twenty four, the gopnum me in twenty twenty four, there's

815
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 1: a few things to say about. I mean, first of all,

816
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 1: what a bind Republicans are in, because clearly the establishment

817
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: of the party and a lot of other folks you know,

818
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: in the party are ready to move on for Trump.

819
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: They see Ron DeSantis as a better electoral prospect, you know,

820
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 1: they see him as just sort of like easier to

821
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 1: deal with altogether, and so they would love to move

822
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: on to Ron DeSantis or someone else. But you've got

823
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: this threat out there. Of There was a poll that

824
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 1: was done by Bulwark, which is like an anti Trump

825
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:35,280
Speaker 1: news website. They asked, okay, if you had Trump running

826
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,919
Speaker 1: as a third party and the Republican nominee, who would

827
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 1: you back? Twenty eight percent of Republican voters say they

828
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 1: would back Trump if he ran as an independent. I mean,

829
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 1: that's automatically handing the election to Democrats. So in a way,

830
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: even though they feel like, okay, if you just had

831
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 1: DeSantis versus Biden or whoever the Democratic nominee is, that

832
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 1: would be a stronger hand to play, it may actually

833
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: end up being for them a much worse electoral prospect,

834
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 1: especially because even if Trump doesn't mount an independent bid,

835
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: I just cannot imagine him bending the knee going around

836
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 1: campaigning for Ronda Santis saying this is my guy, or

837
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 1: we should get behind him. He won a Farren square

838
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 1: and you know he's the better man, and let's all

839
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: get after it to beat the dev I just I

840
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 1: cannot see that ultimately happening. So this is kind of

841
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 1: a disaster waiting to happen ultimately for the Republicans. And

842
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 1: why does that matter? Because in a GOP primary, for example,

843
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,800
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp I believe he won his primary like sixty

844
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: thirty or something like that. Well, that matters whenever it's

845
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 1: head to head, and then you eventually become the nominee.

846
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 1: But in a general election, if you get people to

847
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 1: not if you get let's say, one third of people

848
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 1: not to vote for you, well, if one third of

849
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: Republicans don't vote, we all know forget how that works.

850
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush, till his dying day, believed that

851
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 1: Ross Perot is the one who cost him the election

852
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: by splitting the vote people forget. I think Bill Clinton

853
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: only won like forty three percent of the popular vote

854
00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 1: whenever he was elected the president, but because of the

855
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: way electoral college and Ross Perro on the ballot in

856
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 1: many of these states. HW maintained for a long time

857
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: that it was Ross Proe's fault. I think it was

858
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush's fault for not appealing to those people.

859
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: But hey, the point is is that when you have

860
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: a third party candidate on the ballot, of course it

861
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 1: can screw things up. You know. The Gore people always

862
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: blamed Ralph Nader as if it's his fault that Gorgram

863
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 1: a bad campaign for me more than Merrier, I guess

864
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 1: whenever it comes at the end of the day, it's

865
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: just about winning people's votes over But it shows the

866
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 1: danger that Trump could pose to a hypothetical DeSantis candidacy.

867
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 1: In the event that a Bruise DeSantis does actually emerge

868
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: victorious from the primary, we'll see. At the same time,

869
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: let's put this up there on the screen. This is

870
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: a major piece of political news. This is about the

871
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,399
Speaker 1: Coke Network, kind of a name that we haven't talked

872
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,479
Speaker 1: about with GOP politics for some time. But we should

873
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: not forget these people are multi billionaires. They remain some

874
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: of the biggest spenders in the entire Republican Party. They

875
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:56,360
Speaker 1: are Libertarians. They were essentially overthrown by the Trump apparatus

876
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: while Trump was in power, but they are not just

877
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: going down without a fight, and they are saying that

878
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 1: they are willing to throw money and weight behind a

879
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 1: single Republican candidate in the twenty twenty four presidential primary.

880
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 1: But they have refused to name Donald Trump as that

881
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 1: potential candidate, so we don't exactly know what this means.

882
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 1: It very likely, in my estimation, is a bid to

883
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,400
Speaker 1: show DeSantis that he has the money if he wants

884
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 1: to run. And because it's not just about Coke, it's

885
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,280
Speaker 1: we've got Ken Griffin as well, who I've talked about,

886
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 1: the Citadel billionaire. Some people remember from GameStop fame. I

887
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 1: think he's worth like thirty billion. He's already said he's

888
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 1: like I would pack DeSantis. Last time around that we

889
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 1: did a segment about DeSantis, we talked about Miriam Adelson.

890
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 1: I believe she has some forty or fifty billion to

891
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: play with the Cokes Is, you know, one hundred billion

892
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,879
Speaker 1: dollar slush fund. So I think that this is one

893
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: of those signals to somebody who would be much more

894
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: friendly to more economic libertarianism even than Trump, even though

895
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 1: Trump was really only doing it in rhetoric. The Cookes

896
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 1: love a DeSantis type figure. Remember there are also the

897
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 1: people who funded me much of the initial Tea party

898
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 1: wave back in twenty ten. So I think that this

899
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: is a big signal to Dessandis. They're like, hey, money's there, Yeah,

900
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 1: you want to do it. You're going to have an

901
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 1: unlimited pocketbook. Money is not going to be the issue

902
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,240
Speaker 1: for Ron DeSantis. Yeah, of course, even you know, without

903
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: the Coke network, he's got a number of billionaires lined up.

904
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 1: I think there are a lot of Republicans who are

905
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 1: you well positioned to donate to him, well positioned to

906
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 1: raise money for him, who would back his candidacy, So

907
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: that is not going to be the issue. I mean,

908
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 1: they have not come out and said it would be DeSantis.

909
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 1: I do think that that is the most likely direction

910
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,720
Speaker 1: that they would ultimately go in. But it's worth mentioning

911
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: that there are some deep ties between other potential Republican

912
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 1: contenders and the Coke Network, especially former Vice President Mike Pence. Yes,

913
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 1: his former chief of staff and longtime aid Mark Short,

914
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 1: who we interviewed number of times over when we were

915
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: at Rising. He once oversaw the entire entire political operation

916
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,320
Speaker 1: over at the Coke Network. So you have sort of

917
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 1: deep tie ins there and you could see like an

918
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 1: ideological affinity there as well. You'll have some times with

919
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 1: Mike Pompeio Nikki Haley. But I agree with you it

920
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 1: is most likely that they would get behind Ron DeSantis.

921
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 1: And this isn't just about the presidential election. They also

922
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 1: are signaling they want to play more heavily in terms

923
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: of Republican primaries to try to reclaim the entirety of

924
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 1: the Republican Party and make sure that they're back under

925
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,240
Speaker 1: their thumb in the more consistent way that they ultimately

926
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 1: used to be and go all right, So we were

927
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 1: mentioning before a lot going on on the Democratic side

928
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, Biden is weaker than he

929
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 1: should be with the general electorate, but also extraordinary weak,

930
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 1: extraordinary weakness with the Democratic base, and they want to

931
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:45,240
Speaker 1: try to short circuit any potential challenge to Joe Biden

932
00:45:45,320 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 1: in a Democratic primary. So they are basically sort of like,

933
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: you know, it used to be a scandal when the

934
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 1: DNC would like rig primaries in favor of like Hillary Clinton,

935
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 1: for example. Now it's just all out in the open, apparently,

936
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 1: so a goad and put this up on the screen.

937
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 1: On Saturday, they past a new primary calendar. They're making

938
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 1: South Carolina first, and they are booting Iowa entirely. Now,

939
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 1: in fairness, I have to say, after the way that

940
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,760
Speaker 1: Iowa caucaes went last time, you can hardly really fault

941
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 1: them for moving Iowa out of the front of the line.

942
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 1: But what you're going to have now is the party's

943
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 1: vote on Saturday replaces Iowa caucuses as the first of

944
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 1: the nation with South Carolina, a state they sate with

945
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 1: significantly more black voters, one that saved Biden's twenty twenty

946
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: presidential campaign. That's what it's really about. It really doesn't

947
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 1: have anything to do with the demographics. Would then be

948
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: followed by New Hampshire and Nevada one week later, and

949
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 1: then by primaries in Georgia and Michigan. So the big

950
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 1: winners here South Carolina, obviously, Georgia and Michigan. These are

951
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:49,320
Speaker 1: three states that Joe Biden feels confident about that he

952
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 1: sort of takes for granted. You will recall he did

953
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 1: abysmally in both Iowa and in New Hampshire. I mean

954
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 1: place so poor. I think he got what fifth in

955
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 1: New Hampshire he placed, so he didn't even stay through

956
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 1: election night. He just went ahead and flew onto South Carolina,

957
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:08,720
Speaker 1: which then is the state that completely resuscitates him. However,

958
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 1: there is a lot of backlash to this move from

959
00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 1: certainly party officials in Iowa, but especially officials in New Hampshire.

960
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 1: Now New Hampshire has a Republican governor, and this becomes

961
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 1: relevant because they actually have a state law that says

962
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,399
Speaker 1: their primary is supposed to be the first in the nation.

963
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: So they're saying, hey, we can't just get rid of

964
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 1: the state law. We're going to move forward. And also,

965
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 1: by the way, all of the party officials there, like

966
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party apparatus there. Their entire national relevance and

967
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 1: power comes from being the first in the nation. So

968
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 1: this is like an existential threat. Now, what the DNC

969
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 1: is saying is they're going to face penalties if they

970
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 1: disobeyed the party. They might ban candidates from campaigning in

971
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 1: the state, they might have them lose delegates. But this

972
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 1: is a real sort of intra party fight that is

973
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 1: brewing here, and people in New Hampshire are furious about

974
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 1: the attempt to sideline them. And also soccer, as you

975
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: were referencing earlier, this really remakes the Democratic primary and

976
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: what type of candidates are likely to be successful. This

977
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: means that if you are a big money national candidate,

978
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 1: you are going to have with the establishment stamp of approval,

979
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 1: you're going to have a much better chance. Iowa New

980
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 1: Hampshire were about grossroots politics. They were about being able

981
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 1: to come in with a tiny amount of money, be

982
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: able to do shoe leather and go around all the

983
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:36,439
Speaker 1: local Democratic Party affairs and meet people and win them

984
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 1: over face to face. If you don't have Iowa going first,

985
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 1: you don't have Barack Obama. This means that they are

986
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 1: getting rid of that sort of retail politics dynamic in

987
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party almost completely. Oh absolutely, well. I mean

988
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 1: I'm of two minds of it. On the one hand,

989
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 1: should two incredibly white states really be the goal, you know,

990
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: the making grounds for in a party base which has

991
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,840
Speaker 1: a lot of black voters. That's the argument for South Carolina,

992
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: a lot of Hispanic voters as well, increasingly is getting split,

993
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of union participation. And then, of course,

994
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 1: one of the reasons we have a bunch of BS

995
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:17,280
Speaker 1: ethanol standards in this country is specifically because I biow

996
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 1: up our like obesity politics. He yeah, exactly, like not

997
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 1: much like high frutose corn syrup Americans are pumped into

998
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 1: just because of the Iowa caucuses. So maybe we can

999
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 1: fix that. That'd be a fun thing. On the other hand,

1000
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 1: I mean, look, in terms of the South Carolina, there

1001
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 1: was a good argument in that case, if anything, for

1002
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 1: making Nevada the first one me I think Michigan. I

1003
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 1: think Michigan would have been a great first in the nation,

1004
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 1: white working class voters. It's got a large population of

1005
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: people of color for the Democrats, it's got an actual

1006
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 1: swing status in twenty sixteen, and if anything, like the

1007
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 1: point of the primary is to prove that you can

1008
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: do the job or that you can win the election.

1009
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 1: So that's where I would have put the actual votes.

1010
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 1: But I understand exactly why they did it this way.

1011
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,399
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, I think your point about the base

1012
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party and wanting to have states that

1013
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 1: are reflect to that base, I think that is completely reasonable.

1014
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 1: But let's be clear, that's not well I'm doing this.

1015
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: They are doing this entirely because these are the states

1016
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 1: where Joe Venn did well, and that's where they want

1017
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 1: to ultimately start. If your real concern was about having

1018
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:20,719
Speaker 1: a demographic diversity, Nevada would be a much better choice

1019
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 1: because you do have a more even more diverse electorate

1020
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 1: in Nevada. Then you could maintain because much of the

1021
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 1: population is sort of centered in and around Clark County,

1022
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,560
Speaker 1: so you maintain that ability to have that sort of

1023
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 1: retail politics, the ability of a grassroots cannon to be

1024
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: able to catch fire somewhere and then go on across

1025
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,919
Speaker 1: the nation. If that was really what you were concerned about,

1026
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 1: there was a much better case to be made for Nevada.

1027
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: Now I agree with you. Listen, Iowa, they blew it.

1028
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 1: They've blown it like a number of times at this point.

1029
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 1: And also, Democrats don't win in Iowa anymore. That's true.

1030
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 1: Iowa used to be a critical swing state. Barack Obama

1031
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:55,799
Speaker 1: won it. It is not a swing state anymore. It

1032
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 1: is a red state. And you know, Democrats might be

1033
00:50:58,000 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 1: able to win it back, but they showed no interest

1034
00:50:59,880 --> 00:51:04,320
Speaker 1: in doing that ultimately. So New Hampshire, on the other hand,

1035
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: you know the fact that you are and people in

1036
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 1: New Hampshire are taking this very personally. I'll show you

1037
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 1: a sot in a minute that reflects exactly that New

1038
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,120
Speaker 1: Hampshire is a swing state. New Hampshire's a state that

1039
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 1: Donald Trump came close to winning. So the fact that

1040
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 1: you are snubbing them so brazenly and so publicly that

1041
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:30,360
Speaker 1: could actually endanger your general election chances in this state.

1042
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 1: You are certainly not doing yourself any favors with the

1043
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 1: electorate there. Let's just say, And as I referenced before,

1044
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 1: New Hampshire Democrats are furious. They have two Democratic senators,

1045
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 1: one of whom in particular is very you know, sort

1046
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 1: of high up and senior and whatever. They have been

1047
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 1: furious and sort of snubbing the White House over their

1048
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 1: decision to demote New Hampshire, and Jake Tapper played a

1049
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:00,920
Speaker 1: video of the former New Hampshire House Speaker, who was

1050
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 1: a Biden delegate last time around, who says he's looking

1051
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: for another candidate. Let's take a listen. One of Biden's

1052
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 1: delegates from twenty twenty, Steve shirt Left, talking about this

1053
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 1: new proposal. I'll look for another candidate before I'd support

1054
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: Joe Biden if you should go so far as to

1055
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: take away the first of the nation primary. He says

1056
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:25,280
Speaker 1: he will look for another candidate before he supports Joe Biden.

1057
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 1: This is not just any DNC delegate either, the former

1058
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 1: New Hampshire House speaker. You don't think this guy carries

1059
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 1: a lot of weight in the state. He certainly does.

1060
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 1: So you had the former the chair of the New

1061
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:42,439
Speaker 1: Hampshire Democrats saying that this could open up a lane

1062
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 1: for an insurgent candidate, candidate who camps out in New

1063
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 1: Hampshire and takes advantage of this split and this snub ultimately,

1064
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 1: so this is really a big deal in terms of

1065
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 1: how they run these primaries and caucuses going forward. Yeah, yeah, absolutely,

1066
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's a game changer. That's why we're

1067
00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 1: covering it so much. And I don't think it's just

1068
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,760
Speaker 1: relevant to this This is relevant for all time to come,

1069
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 1: like for Kamala in twenty twenty eight, if it ever

1070
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:08,359
Speaker 1: comes to that. For Buddha j Edge, this is a

1071
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 1: massive blow to any future that he has. But he

1072
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 1: can't say anything because he'll get called racist, which I love.

1073
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 1: And if you look at the past, things turn out

1074
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 1: very differently. I think Hillary Clinton becomes president in two

1075
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:22,439
Speaker 1: thousand and eight if South Carolina is first, they had

1076
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 1: a nobody remembers his history. But Obama did not win

1077
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:29,239
Speaker 1: in South Carolina until he could prove essentially that he

1078
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 1: could win in Iowa and in New Hampshire. Many many

1079
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 1: such cases going back, I think, all the way to

1080
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 1: the nineteen seventies. So it's a big problem for the future.

1081
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 1: At the same time, I like change. I like the

1082
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 1: fact that we're shaking things up so we can get

1083
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 1: rid of some of these stupid shibbolts that we have

1084
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 1: in politics. I actually think there should also be some

1085
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 1: more West Coast representation. Part of the reason why I'm

1086
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 1: in favor of Nevada. You know, like more than half

1087
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 1: the country also lives there and they don't even get

1088
00:53:55,640 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: represent what representation until Super Tuesday. That's not right. Yeah,

1089
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 1: I mean the Democrats like Latino voters are sort of

1090
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 1: the new swing voters. Democrats really want to bring them

1091
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 1: into their can like think about how to appeal to

1092
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:09,920
Speaker 1: them whatever. I mean. That's why Bernie Sanders was able

1093
00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 1: to do so well in the Nevada caucuses is because

1094
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: they really spent a lot of time and effort and

1095
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 1: money boots on the ground trying to appeal to that electorate.

1096
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, I just let's just make it clear all

1097
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 1: of their stuff about oh the demographics and we want

1098
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 1: to diverse it. What I know, this is the power play,

1099
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 1: pure and simple. That's one hundred percent what it's about.

1100
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 1: Very true. All right, let's talk about Joe Rogan. We

1101
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 1: were on the Joe Rogan Experience. We had a fantastic time.

1102
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:36,760
Speaker 1: I think it was it three hours in some minutes. Yeah, wow,

1103
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 1: it really does experience. It's intense, but it also goes

1104
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:41,879
Speaker 1: by it. It was fun. It was a lot of fun,

1105
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 1: for sure. We really enjoyed it. We put together a

1106
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 1: little bit of a highlight reel for everybody. As we

1107
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:48,480
Speaker 1: reminded everybody on our podcast. We got a special discount

1108
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 1: going on right now for new JRI listeners. I know

1109
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 1: a lot of people found us through Joe Rogan so

1110
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 1: Breaking Points dot com. We got ten percent off right

1111
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,319
Speaker 1: now on our yearly subscription if we like what we're

1112
00:54:57,320 --> 00:54:59,279
Speaker 1: all about. But with that, here's little highlight reel we

1113
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 1: put together from our appearance, all the stuff that we loved.

1114
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. We did this video. It is

1115
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 1: like the problems of boys and men with an author

1116
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 1: Richard Reeves, who's actually fantastic. He wrote a great book

1117
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 1: on this. You have a great cone, super actually viral,

1118
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:13,839
Speaker 1: and he talks a lot. He's like, look, I understand.

1119
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 1: He's like, I'm not an anti feminist. He's like, what

1120
00:55:16,040 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 1: we are talking about, though, is in the last two

1121
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 1: decades we've had a crisis amongst young men. And something

1122
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,360
Speaker 1: we talk about on the show is what Chrystal's getting

1123
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 1: out with the decline of the American dream, like the

1124
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 1: idea that you were going to do better than your parents,

1125
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 1: and that's just not really true anymore. Depend even if

1126
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 1: you went to school and you have a shit ton

1127
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:35,520
Speaker 1: of student debt, even if you're working class. In terms

1128
00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: of wage growth, upward mobility. People who are graduating from

1129
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:43,240
Speaker 1: high school how are having who are men and working class,

1130
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 1: having much more trouble actually finding a mate. So there's

1131
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 1: a big college imbalance right now where a lot of

1132
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 1: men are dropping out of college. They no longer feel accepted,

1133
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 1: and you're reaching almost sixty forty splits of women and

1134
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 1: men in college especially who are graduating a lot of

1135
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: women who have college degrees. Don't you want to date

1136
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 1: somebody who doesn't have a college degree, And so there's

1137
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 1: this big imbalance in the dating market. And then also

1138
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 1: amongst single men, you see a big decline in lifetime wages.

1139
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 1: But what really makes me really sad is the drug

1140
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:17,439
Speaker 1: overdose numbers. And they die much earlier, They're much less

1141
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 1: likely to exercise, much less likely to fulfill a more

1142
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 1: like a stronger life. And that's what gets to the

1143
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 1: charlatanism of like being able to buy into the charlatan

1144
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 1: signing up for some MLN scheme that you might see online,

1145
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: buying crypto and by the way, you're looking at a

1146
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:35,120
Speaker 1: crypto victim, I lost five thousand dollars on Block five.

1147
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 1: Got fucked out that there's a lot of men that

1148
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:43,240
Speaker 1: feel by their very existence, that they're bad. Yeah. Yeah,

1149
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 1: it's a big thought of toxic masculinity and the things

1150
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 1: that they're attracted to. They think they've been told or stupid,

1151
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 1: or you know, that they're evil or you know. There's

1152
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 1: a thing about being a man in this world today

1153
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:00,760
Speaker 1: that I think we have to look at all human

1154
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 1: beings is just human beings, and you don't you can't

1155
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:06,439
Speaker 1: help that you were born a man, and you can't

1156
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: help the things that you enjoy, like if you enjoy

1157
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 1: going to football games, you enjoy getting loud with your friends.

1158
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 1: This idea of toxic masculinity, it's like, yeah, there's toxic

1159
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 1: aspects of men, and that's real. That's a reality of

1160
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:23,160
Speaker 1: being a male human being. If you look at a

1161
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: history of war, it's all started by men. Men did

1162
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 1: all of it. Men do all the raping. I had

1163
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 1: this guy on the podcast once. It was hilarious. He goes, actually,

1164
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: you know, statistically speaking, men get raped more than women

1165
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 1: do it. I go, yeah, by other men, You fucking idiot.

1166
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 1: I go, it's not packs of cheerleaders rape and football players.

1167
00:57:43,320 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 1: The fuck is wrong with you. The problem is men.

1168
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 1: That's the problem with manosphere, is that there's grifters in

1169
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 1: the manosphere that aren't actual real men. And by real men,

1170
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:57,360
Speaker 1: I mean they don't have resolve. They like if you

1171
00:57:57,400 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 1: took them on a hike, they would get tired, they

1172
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 1: would sit down, you would have to leave them behind.

1173
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:06,439
Speaker 1: They're not The word tough is a word, but it's

1174
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 1: like like, oh, you're tove No. Mental toughness is fucking important.

1175
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 1: It's a really important quality of life, and it's been

1176
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:16,720
Speaker 1: diminished to this thing that's like a part of toxic

1177
00:58:16,880 --> 00:58:20,320
Speaker 1: masculinity ideology. Well, and this is where you know, the

1178
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 1: andrew Tates of the world come in and they like

1179
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 1: perform this just like caricaturist, ridiculous masculine, whatever they're doing.

1180
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:31,280
Speaker 1: And then also maybe as a sex trafficker. We'll find out,

1181
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens there. But it again speaks to

1182
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 1: the fact there used to be a really clear sort

1183
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 1: of cultural narrative, right or wrong about what it was

1184
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 1: to be a man, and at the core of that

1185
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 1: was being a provider. Right for women, it was like,

1186
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 1: you know, it's other things, being like a mother and

1187
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 1: a nurture and like the way you look for men,

1188
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 1: it's like about the wallet, right, the pocket book. And

1189
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 1: then so I think when we've had an assault on

1190
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 1: the middle class, on the working class, where it becomes

1191
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 1: so much harder to be able to fulfill that cultural

1192
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 1: narrative of what it is supposed to be to be

1193
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:09,200
Speaker 1: a man, I think that's been this is a woman.

1194
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 1: But you know, from my external perspective, I think that's

1195
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 1: been really really devastating. Look, at the end of the day,

1196
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 1: systems can change if enough people actually want to do

1197
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 1: something about it. We've talked a lot about the stock

1198
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 1: market ban. I think that's actually probably step one. If

1199
00:59:22,400 --> 00:59:24,600
Speaker 1: we get to the point where we can just ban

1200
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 1: members of Congress from trading stocks, the institutional trust, I

1201
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 1: think that we could all then have within the system,

1202
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 1: just at a baseline level, it would help a lot.

1203
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:35,560
Speaker 1: It would help a lot to be able to get that.

1204
00:59:35,640 --> 00:59:38,919
Speaker 1: But of course Nancy Pelosi is the speaker. She first

1205
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 1: she says, what was we live in a free market economy.

1206
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 1: We're allowed to participate. Watch that locked off the stage

1207
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: pretty good. That was wild when she just walked off

1208
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 1: the stage. That is wild. I mean she's not the

1209
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 1: only one, though, I mean there's some of it's a

1210
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 1: completely bipartisan Is you yeah, and a lot of these

1211
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 1: guys and you know, they'll claim they're like, look, I

1212
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 1: don't have any inside information. I'm like, look, motherfucker, you're guilted.

1213
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:09,960
Speaker 1: Like you got to prove you know, honestly, I mean

1214
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:14,240
Speaker 1: weather listen they do, and like, obviously they're not geniuses

1215
01:00:14,520 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 1: and they're all like beating the market and beating people

1216
01:00:17,240 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 1: who are expert at this and what are the sorrows?

1217
01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 1: And Warren Buffett are not as good as Paul Pelosi.

1218
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:25,200
Speaker 1: Oh wow, he's better. He's better at trading. He's just

1219
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 1: amazing just to do it right before the anti trust

1220
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:30,800
Speaker 1: suit was filed, it sold like three million dollars. And

1221
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 1: once again, you're just never going to convince me that

1222
01:00:32,640 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 1: you didn't know about that. Like you're just not going, yeah,

1223
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 1: but you knew. Okay, let's theoretically say, all right, we

1224
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,400
Speaker 1: believe it, like they didn't use their inside information. It

1225
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 1: almost doesn't matter. It doesn't because ultimately the bottom line

1226
01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 1: is people fucking think that you use your information and

1227
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,560
Speaker 1: you know, are benefiting from it. And by the way,

1228
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 1: when you look overall, like you could look at any

1229
01:00:53,000 --> 01:00:56,080
Speaker 1: individual trade and be like, oh maybe maybe not, who knows.

1230
01:00:56,320 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 1: But when you look at the numbers overall and you're like,

1231
01:00:58,840 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 1: all you motherfuckers are beating the market. No fucking how

1232
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:09,720
Speaker 1: unusual the actual speculation, the actual the trade sales trades. Yeah,

1233
01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 1: they fucking knows. He knows something and they're not doing

1234
01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 1: anything about it. Unusual whales. Shout out to him. He's

1235
01:01:15,360 --> 01:01:17,040
Speaker 1: really one of the guys who sparked this whole movement

1236
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: because he was an unusual whale. He's like an anonymous

1237
01:01:19,840 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 1: Twitter account, and he's one of the first people who

1238
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 1: actually published Journalist. He published the first trading and this

1239
01:01:25,480 --> 01:01:28,440
Speaker 1: was like twenty twenty one, whenever, maybe twenty twenty. Actually

1240
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 1: we're some of the first people who actually picked it

1241
01:01:30,600 --> 01:01:33,000
Speaker 1: up originally about the congressional trading numbers, and we went

1242
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 1: through the exact scentate. He loops it all together as

1243
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 1: an institution and the way that it was able to

1244
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 1: beat the market consistently year after year after and this

1245
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 1: is all publicly available data. Shout out to him. Yeah, great, dude, Yeah,

1246
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 1: definitely give him a follow. He's really he does really

1247
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 1: good work and you can actually see it all right

1248
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 1: there the full Trading Report on Politicians in twenty twenty two,

1249
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 1: and again totally bipartisan. Debbie Wasserman, Schaals, Patrick Fallen, Susi Lee,

1250
01:01:55,840 --> 01:01:58,400
Speaker 1: David Joyce, Gary Peters all look at the blue and

1251
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:01,040
Speaker 1: the red there all within graph and you can even

1252
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 1: see like, look, it's uh, it's everybody like from all

1253
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 1: across the board. People who are supposedly against the system,

1254
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:09,960
Speaker 1: people who are totally within the system. And that's what

1255
01:02:10,040 --> 01:02:13,360
Speaker 1: makes it so disgusting. We have gotten to ban this,

1256
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 1: like with nineteen point eight percent, what does that mean?

1257
01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 1: Well that she was down down percent. Well, and that's

1258
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 1: the other thing with Paul Pelosi. The guy's extraordinarily leveraged,

1259
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:24,720
Speaker 1: Like he's always trading options. He's not even just buying

1260
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 1: and selling individual stocks. He's making much larger bets on

1261
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 1: these things. I mean, he's got one hundred million dollars

1262
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 1: and access to shit you and I don't have. But

1263
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,640
Speaker 1: Debbie Wasserman Schultz at the top, she's gonna do it

1264
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:41,440
Speaker 1: fifty one percent on a year over year in twenty

1265
01:02:41,440 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 1: twenty two. Crazy. I mean, if you compare that to

1266
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:45,720
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred, actually be curious, or

1267
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:47,880
Speaker 1: with the twenty twenty two s and yeah, there you go,

1268
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:50,720
Speaker 1: So eight S and P five hundred is down eighteen percent.

1269
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:53,680
Speaker 1: Look at every single one of these individual members who

1270
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 1: are able to have portfolios which are beating the total market.

1271
01:02:57,120 --> 01:03:08,960
Speaker 1: It's outrage. She's actually forget exactly, that's my partisan one

1272
01:03:09,000 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 1: hundred percent. Well, this is and this is like a

1273
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 1: story of like hope. And it's very depressing because there

1274
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 1: was a whole grassroots movement to be like bipartisan. You know,

1275
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 1: the Republicans were pissed off about Pelosi and Democrats were

1276
01:03:26,000 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 1: pissed off about the Republicans. Like everybody's like, all right,

1277
01:03:28,360 --> 01:03:31,120
Speaker 1: this is fucked up. Right, any thinking person who cares

1278
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 1: about the country be like, this is fucked up. Why

1279
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:36,560
Speaker 1: are we doing this? And so then because there's this

1280
01:03:36,680 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 1: organic movement, you see actually some people in the mainstream

1281
01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 1: press start to cover it. There was actually a reporter

1282
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 1: at Insider. They started digging into the details of these

1283
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 1: trades and compiling reports. That leads to that when you're

1284
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:51,320
Speaker 1: talking about Nancy Pelosi at that press conference, that leads

1285
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 1: to her actually getting asked a question about it, and

1286
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 1: wasn't it incredibly revealing her response in that moment that

1287
01:03:58,200 --> 01:04:00,560
Speaker 1: leads to a backlash. Kevin McCarthy, if he sees an

1288
01:04:00,560 --> 01:04:03,480
Speaker 1: opportunity with Republicans about to take it. He starts possu like, oh,

1289
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:05,840
Speaker 1: Republicans take the house. We're going to do the stock band.

1290
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 1: Of course they haven't said shit about that since then,

1291
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 1: Pelosi actually feels some pressure like, all right, we're going

1292
01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:12,600
Speaker 1: to do We're going to try a thing, and they

1293
01:04:12,640 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 1: sort of like poison pill. That's to make sure it

1294
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:17,280
Speaker 1: doesn't happen too. And that's where the you know, it's

1295
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 1: a mixed bag because you're like, all right, we got

1296
01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 1: it on the menu. There was a lot of pressure.

1297
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:24,240
Speaker 1: Politicians heard it. They had to do something, but then

1298
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:27,920
Speaker 1: both parties again found ways to just completely you know,

1299
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 1: let the issue slide and not actually have to change anything.

1300
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 1: That is an independent media story though, because that's one

1301
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:34,800
Speaker 1: of those where that guy published it, we started talking

1302
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:36,160
Speaker 1: this is not just us, This is a lot of people,

1303
01:04:36,200 --> 01:04:38,200
Speaker 1: Dave Portnoy. There's a lot of other people out there

1304
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:40,200
Speaker 1: who've talked about it. A lot of independent media people

1305
01:04:40,280 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 1: like you have also brought it up that kind of

1306
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:44,920
Speaker 1: put it in the cultural pop culture conversation. You got

1307
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 1: TikTokers out there doing Pelosi trades like they have huge

1308
01:04:48,080 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 1: accounts where Gen z and millennials are totally bought into

1309
01:04:51,560 --> 01:04:54,560
Speaker 1: how corrupt the system is. That floats upward with the

1310
01:04:54,560 --> 01:04:58,480
Speaker 1: outrage insider picks it up. And President Biden actually originally

1311
01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:00,240
Speaker 1: had a line in the State of the Union just

1312
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 1: last year where he was going to endorse a congressional

1313
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:05,120
Speaker 1: stock breeding ban. The line was pulled at the very

1314
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 1: last minute. Of all the things. You know, you listen

1315
01:05:08,160 --> 01:05:10,120
Speaker 1: to those State of thing, it's like a laundry list.

1316
01:05:10,360 --> 01:05:12,240
Speaker 1: Check it check in the box on every fucking thing,

1317
01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:15,480
Speaker 1: twenty five checkboxes and that's the line. That's the line

1318
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 1: that gets pulled. It's amazing, right, and whose request? I

1319
01:05:17,880 --> 01:05:20,800
Speaker 1: don't think people understand that cable is a fake business model.

1320
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:23,080
Speaker 1: So for example, we talk a lot about the failing ratings.

1321
01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:26,240
Speaker 1: The key demo numbers on all three of these channels

1322
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:29,000
Speaker 1: is a joke. I always like to say, like Chris

1323
01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 1: and I would be starving in a ditch if any

1324
01:05:31,000 --> 01:05:32,680
Speaker 1: of these if we were getting the same numbers as

1325
01:05:32,720 --> 01:05:36,080
Speaker 1: these people. So how do they survive? It's because they're

1326
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 1: part of something called the cable bundle. And so like

1327
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:42,520
Speaker 1: when you buy cable, like Cox Communications or whatever, they

1328
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:46,400
Speaker 1: pay a Comcast, for example, they pay CNN and MSNBC

1329
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:48,720
Speaker 1: and Fox to be a part of the bundle. The

1330
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 1: vast majority of the profit of these cable channels comes

1331
01:05:51,920 --> 01:05:55,120
Speaker 1: from the bundle. So CNN made a billion in profit

1332
01:05:55,600 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 1: just last year, all propped up by the bundle because

1333
01:05:59,600 --> 01:06:01,440
Speaker 1: they're going to paid just to exist. I mean, can

1334
01:06:01,440 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 1: you imagine if we were getting paid to exist, not

1335
01:06:03,880 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 1: based upon our actual numbers like you make, you can

1336
01:06:07,240 --> 01:06:09,960
Speaker 1: actually reach less people and make more money. And so

1337
01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:12,640
Speaker 1: it's all part of this fake system. But I mean

1338
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:15,600
Speaker 1: the benefit is is that with the rise of independent media,

1339
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 1: more and more advertisers are waking up. The less eyeballs,

1340
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:20,520
Speaker 1: the less of an incentive for the bundle to actually

1341
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:22,280
Speaker 1: pay them to be a part of it. And that's

1342
01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:24,920
Speaker 1: why I was actually really excited by Amazon striking that

1343
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 1: deal with the NFL, because I'm like, yes, get the

1344
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:30,640
Speaker 1: rights away from these people, because that is what props

1345
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:33,480
Speaker 1: up all kinds of bullshit that we don't have like

1346
01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:36,920
Speaker 1: a small d democratic input with our eyeballs on CNN

1347
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 1: or any of these places. They can exist just find

1348
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:42,600
Speaker 1: without us, like to really kill them. We have to

1349
01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 1: get away from live news on TV. That's that's the

1350
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:48,040
Speaker 1: number one thing still propping them up today. Yeah. Yeah,

1351
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:50,320
Speaker 1: it's kind of a zombie business model. But I will

1352
01:06:50,320 --> 01:06:54,439
Speaker 1: tell you, I mean, I have a lot of optimism

1353
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 1: certainly about what we're doing, about the response to what

1354
01:06:57,560 --> 01:07:01,680
Speaker 1: we're doing about the independent media eCos system. But you

1355
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:04,320
Speaker 1: and I were talking the other day, Joe about I

1356
01:07:04,360 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 1: do think it's a dangerous moment for people. And one

1357
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:11,120
Speaker 1: thing we've been covering a lot on the show is

1358
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:16,120
Speaker 1: you have a kind of breakdown in previous national stories

1359
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:19,000
Speaker 1: and narratives, and people are very like story driven. You know,

1360
01:07:19,080 --> 01:07:21,440
Speaker 1: you have a breakdown. And I'm not a religious person,

1361
01:07:21,480 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 1: so this is like not my bag, but you have

1362
01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 1: a breakdown in religion. So some of the stories that

1363
01:07:25,240 --> 01:07:27,120
Speaker 1: have kind of like held the country together and that

1364
01:07:27,200 --> 01:07:29,920
Speaker 1: people helped use to make sense of their life, or

1365
01:07:29,960 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 1: even the story about the American Dream, a lot of

1366
01:07:33,240 --> 01:07:35,840
Speaker 1: these things are kind of breaking down. Now that's a

1367
01:07:35,880 --> 01:07:39,919
Speaker 1: good thing because it creates a possibility for a new,

1368
01:07:40,120 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 1: more beneficial story. But in the meantime, it is just

1369
01:07:44,520 --> 01:07:49,000
Speaker 1: a like heyday for con artists and Charlatan's and you know,

1370
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 1: people who are willing to sell a narrative to you know,

1371
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:55,960
Speaker 1: a lot of folks who feel kind of lost, kind

1372
01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:59,200
Speaker 1: of a drift and don't like existing in that chaos.

1373
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:01,760
Speaker 1: So it's like, you know, whether they're being scammed by

1374
01:08:01,840 --> 01:08:06,600
Speaker 1: like SBF or this like Congressman George Santos like made

1375
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 1: up every aspect of his life with him. I just

1376
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:13,880
Speaker 1: find him a disgrace. So there you go. Oh god,

1377
01:08:13,920 --> 01:08:17,840
Speaker 1: it really I hate listening. I actually listened back through

1378
01:08:18,080 --> 01:08:20,400
Speaker 1: the entire three three hours of yourself. Even when you're

1379
01:08:20,400 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 1: listening in three and a half speed is not altogether pleasant.

1380
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:25,240
Speaker 1: Though it was very pleasant to be there with you

1381
01:08:25,320 --> 01:08:27,280
Speaker 1: and with Joe. I thought, you know it was. It

1382
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:28,960
Speaker 1: was just a lot, a lot of fun to be

1383
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:31,960
Speaker 1: with Rogan, and the fun of Rogan is on one

1384
01:08:32,040 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 1: moment you're talking about Ukraine and the next you're talking

1385
01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:38,559
Speaker 1: about bears and bear hunting in your jersey. So yes, indeed,

1386
01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:41,120
Speaker 1: I mean this was this was our third time going on.

1387
01:08:41,760 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 1: First time. I was nervous as hell. Yeah, and it

1388
01:08:44,160 --> 01:08:47,280
Speaker 1: was also it was a very fraught moment and it

1389
01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:50,280
Speaker 1: was public life. It was like George Floyd was there

1390
01:08:50,320 --> 01:08:52,320
Speaker 1: were right that was in La at that point. There

1391
01:08:52,360 --> 01:08:54,080
Speaker 1: were like riots going on right there. So that was

1392
01:08:54,160 --> 01:08:57,400
Speaker 1: like very intense experience. Last time it was right after

1393
01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:59,400
Speaker 1: we had launched, so it was in the milieu of

1394
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:02,280
Speaker 1: like launch, yeah, which was also very sort of like

1395
01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:04,040
Speaker 1: nerve wracking. We didn't know how it was all going

1396
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:06,000
Speaker 1: to go. At that point, I was looking good, but

1397
01:09:06,080 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 1: we were still sort of like in the like really

1398
01:09:08,520 --> 01:09:11,639
Speaker 1: building up phase. This time, being that it's our third

1399
01:09:11,640 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 1: time and we spend more time with him, it felt

1400
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:17,000
Speaker 1: a little bit more relaxed and conversational and like we

1401
01:09:17,040 --> 01:09:20,040
Speaker 1: could just kind of let the conversation flow. So was

1402
01:09:20,080 --> 01:09:22,200
Speaker 1: really excited about some of the topics that we got

1403
01:09:22,200 --> 01:09:24,080
Speaker 1: to get into. Things that we cover a lot here

1404
01:09:24,120 --> 01:09:26,000
Speaker 1: on the show. The scam economy is something I'm talking

1405
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:29,439
Speaker 1: about in my monologue today. Chat GPT, the freaking Chinese balloon,

1406
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:34,719
Speaker 1: Ukraine media of course, So it was really really grateful

1407
01:09:34,800 --> 01:09:36,919
Speaker 1: to have the opportunity to raise some of those subjects

1408
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:38,760
Speaker 1: on a show. Definitely, So if you guys enjoyed it,

1409
01:09:38,800 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 1: as we said, we got the discount going on, but

1410
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:44,720
Speaker 1: we'll leave you with that, all right, Sager, are you

1411
01:09:44,760 --> 01:09:46,599
Speaker 1: looking at as everyone here knows, there's nothing I love

1412
01:09:46,640 --> 01:09:48,320
Speaker 1: more than a good history lesson. So when I saw

1413
01:09:48,360 --> 01:09:50,599
Speaker 1: the Chinese balloon, I could not help but get excited,

1414
01:09:50,840 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 1: but always had a weird fascination with large balloons, and

1415
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:56,479
Speaker 1: they're used by mankind over the years. Might be the

1416
01:09:56,520 --> 01:09:58,800
Speaker 1: only guy said that the Hindenburg blew up and killed

1417
01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:01,960
Speaker 1: the chances of balloon t Who gets nostalgic of how

1418
01:10:01,960 --> 01:10:04,719
Speaker 1: awesome it looked in Indiana Jones. So with that said,

1419
01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:06,240
Speaker 1: I thought it would be fun to take a trip

1420
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:08,519
Speaker 1: down memory lane and look at how balloons have been

1421
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 1: used in war and for spying throughout history. Before the air.

1422
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:14,760
Speaker 1: Before the aeroplane became ubiquitous in war, the balloon was

1423
01:10:14,760 --> 01:10:17,760
Speaker 1: the go to for aerial surveillance. Surveillance from the air

1424
01:10:17,840 --> 01:10:20,960
Speaker 1: is obviously useful for understanding position of enemy forces without

1425
01:10:20,960 --> 01:10:23,120
Speaker 1: having to send ground forces to determine where they are.

1426
01:10:23,320 --> 01:10:25,320
Speaker 1: Doesn't take a genius to figure it out. It's the

1427
01:10:25,360 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 1: technology that has always been the limiting factor. The French

1428
01:10:28,160 --> 01:10:30,920
Speaker 1: were the leaders in balloon technology and with aviation in

1429
01:10:30,920 --> 01:10:33,519
Speaker 1: general in the late eighteen hundreds and early nineteen hundreds,

1430
01:10:33,640 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 1: so it's not surprise they were actually the first to

1431
01:10:35,400 --> 01:10:38,439
Speaker 1: use balloons in war. The first recorded use of a

1432
01:10:38,479 --> 01:10:42,080
Speaker 1: balloon took place in seventeen ninety four by French forces

1433
01:10:42,120 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 1: in the Battle against Austria. Balloon was considered critical to

1434
01:10:46,360 --> 01:10:48,839
Speaker 1: French victory in the battle, and it was so important

1435
01:10:49,000 --> 01:10:51,839
Speaker 1: it led to the establishment of a French military department,

1436
01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:55,920
Speaker 1: which roughly translates to a company of aeronauts. The original

1437
01:10:55,960 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 1: balloon itself was tethered to the ground with ropes and

1438
01:10:58,400 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 1: cables and quote unicate with the ground with flag signals

1439
01:11:02,479 --> 01:11:05,880
Speaker 1: or by placing written messages in sandbags fitted with rings

1440
01:11:05,920 --> 01:11:08,559
Speaker 1: that would be slid down the cables. The first use

1441
01:11:08,600 --> 01:11:11,639
Speaker 1: reportedly stunned the French because it allowed them to see

1442
01:11:11,680 --> 01:11:14,040
Speaker 1: a distance of eighteen miles through the use of a

1443
01:11:14,080 --> 01:11:16,559
Speaker 1: telescope and let them get a clearer picture of the

1444
01:11:16,560 --> 01:11:19,559
Speaker 1: battlefield before the attack. In fact, one of the commanding

1445
01:11:19,600 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 1: generals at the Battle of Fleurs stayed in the air

1446
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:24,639
Speaker 1: for the entire battle and directed it with messages sent

1447
01:11:24,720 --> 01:11:27,679
Speaker 1: down from the balloon for ten hours. The balloon also

1448
01:11:27,720 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 1: had a significant moral effect on the Austrian enemy, who

1449
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:33,000
Speaker 1: quote feared the balloon and looked upon it as an

1450
01:11:33,000 --> 01:11:36,439
Speaker 1: agent of the devil. Allied to the French Republic. The

1451
01:11:36,479 --> 01:11:39,719
Speaker 1: balloon was then quickly noticed as a critical tool in warfare.

1452
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:42,559
Speaker 1: It appeared next in major conflagration here in the United

1453
01:11:42,560 --> 01:11:45,280
Speaker 1: States the American Civil War. It saw the next major

1454
01:11:45,400 --> 01:11:48,519
Speaker 1: organized deployment of recon balloons by the Union Army after

1455
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:52,240
Speaker 1: a balloon technician personally convinced President Lincoln of their utility.

1456
01:11:52,560 --> 01:11:55,080
Speaker 1: Seven balloons in total were deployed by the Union during

1457
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:57,400
Speaker 1: the war. None were ever shot down, though the general

1458
01:11:57,479 --> 01:11:59,720
Speaker 1: utility was questioned by eighteen sixty three. They were more

1459
01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:03,280
Speaker 1: nice novelty than a critical military necessity. They didn't really

1460
01:12:03,439 --> 01:12:06,679
Speaker 1: explode on the scene again until World War One, when

1461
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:10,280
Speaker 1: the great European powers were all fascinated by big developments

1462
01:12:10,320 --> 01:12:13,040
Speaker 1: in man flight. Balloons by this point were able to

1463
01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:15,559
Speaker 1: reach some three to six thousand feet and were much

1464
01:12:15,560 --> 01:12:18,400
Speaker 1: more useful at being able to spot enemy artillery positions,

1465
01:12:18,520 --> 01:12:20,880
Speaker 1: and in fact, what's reminiscent of today, some of the

1466
01:12:20,920 --> 01:12:24,240
Speaker 1: first use of planes were actually used to shoot down

1467
01:12:24,560 --> 01:12:28,280
Speaker 1: enemy balloons. Balloon operator was considered a very dangerous job

1468
01:12:28,439 --> 01:12:30,439
Speaker 1: because enemy fire was able to reach them and they

1469
01:12:30,439 --> 01:12:32,880
Speaker 1: were equipped with parachutes. But it was World War Two

1470
01:12:32,880 --> 01:12:35,960
Speaker 1: where things got really interesting. In one of those sins

1471
01:12:35,960 --> 01:12:39,280
Speaker 1: forgotten but extraordinary moments, the only people to die in

1472
01:12:39,320 --> 01:12:42,960
Speaker 1: the continental United States during the Second World War was

1473
01:12:43,040 --> 01:12:46,679
Speaker 1: from an attack were six citizens of Oregon on a picnic,

1474
01:12:46,720 --> 01:12:51,479
Speaker 1: including some children, who encountered a Japanese balloon laden with bombs.

1475
01:12:51,800 --> 01:12:55,559
Speaker 1: The Japanese sent up nearly nine thousand balloons to drift

1476
01:12:55,560 --> 01:12:57,679
Speaker 1: over the US in the hopes that they would cause

1477
01:12:57,760 --> 01:13:02,240
Speaker 1: mass panic and casualties. They were largely unsuccessful, luckily, so

1478
01:13:02,280 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 1: you might think that was the last of balloons, but

1479
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:07,040
Speaker 1: actually they have been used by great powers since then

1480
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:10,960
Speaker 1: in all conflicts, including by the US in Iraq and Afghanistan.

1481
01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:14,000
Speaker 1: In fact, in Afghanistan they became such a potent symbol

1482
01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:16,920
Speaker 1: of American oppression by villagers who found the idea of

1483
01:13:16,960 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 1: constantly being spied on very obtrusive. So you might ask

1484
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:23,200
Speaker 1: why even use a balloon in the age of satellites,

1485
01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:25,400
Speaker 1: While the US Air Force put out a paper in

1486
01:13:25,439 --> 01:13:28,639
Speaker 1: two thousand and nine that described why balloons are still used.

1487
01:13:28,800 --> 01:13:30,960
Speaker 1: They can stay above a target for much longer than

1488
01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:34,240
Speaker 1: a satellite. They're easier to retrieve orders of magnitude, cheaper

1489
01:13:34,280 --> 01:13:37,520
Speaker 1: to launch, they can scan more territory from a lower altitude.

1490
01:13:37,640 --> 01:13:40,799
Speaker 1: In fact, balloons are seen as so critical even today

1491
01:13:41,040 --> 01:13:43,400
Speaker 1: that the US Air Force just a few months ago

1492
01:13:43,720 --> 01:13:47,080
Speaker 1: established a new program to use them against China and Russia.

1493
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:49,400
Speaker 1: The new program, which is known as cold Star or

1494
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:53,400
Speaker 1: the Covert Long dwell Stratospheric Architecture Program, is similar to

1495
01:13:53,439 --> 01:13:56,760
Speaker 1: the Chinese one. It deploys stratospheric balloons between sixty and

1496
01:13:56,840 --> 01:14:00,240
Speaker 1: ninety thousand feet for global surveillance. In twenty twenty five three,

1497
01:14:00,280 --> 01:14:02,640
Speaker 1: we are scheduled to spend some thirty million dollars on

1498
01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:05,519
Speaker 1: balloon technology. Balloons are seen as one of the first

1499
01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:08,800
Speaker 1: lines of defense against hypersonic missiles, which move in an

1500
01:14:08,800 --> 01:14:11,920
Speaker 1: irregular manner and have posed a nightmare to missile defense

1501
01:14:11,960 --> 01:14:15,040
Speaker 1: planning capabilities, So this actually gives us an insight into

1502
01:14:15,040 --> 01:14:17,640
Speaker 1: the Chinese spy balloon. Many have asked, why is this

1503
01:14:17,680 --> 01:14:19,639
Speaker 1: balloon being used in the first place In the age

1504
01:14:19,640 --> 01:14:22,559
Speaker 1: of spy satellites. It especially makes sense that the Chinese

1505
01:14:22,600 --> 01:14:25,599
Speaker 1: balloon was deployed over one of those three US bases

1506
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:29,320
Speaker 1: which house intercontinental ballistic missile programs, and in a time

1507
01:14:29,360 --> 01:14:31,840
Speaker 1: when we are looking to compete with Russia and China

1508
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:35,240
Speaker 1: in the development of hypersonic missiles. In fact, my biggest

1509
01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:37,799
Speaker 1: takeaway in research for this piece is that the balloon

1510
01:14:37,920 --> 01:14:41,280
Speaker 1: isn't nearly as crazy or as rudimentary as our first

1511
01:14:41,320 --> 01:14:44,880
Speaker 1: initial impression may be, my bigger takeaway is a joyful one.

1512
01:14:45,040 --> 01:14:47,160
Speaker 1: For all the advances that we have made a society,

1513
01:14:47,439 --> 01:14:51,400
Speaker 1: sometimes the simplest technology is the best and the most reliable.

1514
01:14:51,680 --> 01:14:54,519
Speaker 1: Nothing better than putting gas in a balloon and going up.

1515
01:14:54,720 --> 01:14:57,679
Speaker 1: Maybe my dreams of balloon travel are not dead after all.

1516
01:14:58,360 --> 01:15:01,320
Speaker 1: So pretty crazy And if you want to hear my

1517
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:05,000
Speaker 1: reaction to Sagres's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at

1518
01:15:05,000 --> 01:15:11,320
Speaker 1: breakingpoints dot com. What are you taking a look at? Well? Guys.

1519
01:15:11,320 --> 01:15:13,840
Speaker 1: About two weeks ago, a short seller known for exposing

1520
01:15:13,880 --> 01:15:17,400
Speaker 1: corporate fraud dropped this little cryptic message on Twitter quote

1521
01:15:17,560 --> 01:15:20,240
Speaker 1: soon we will release a report on what we strongly

1522
01:15:20,240 --> 01:15:24,080
Speaker 1: suspect to be the largest corporate fraud in history. And

1523
01:15:24,280 --> 01:15:27,280
Speaker 1: they did kind of deliver. Hindenburg Research Funding ERGS talking

1524
01:15:27,280 --> 01:15:29,880
Speaker 1: about the balloons posted a one hundred page detailed report

1525
01:15:30,080 --> 01:15:32,760
Speaker 1: along with a lengthy Twitter thread claiming that one of

1526
01:15:32,800 --> 01:15:35,400
Speaker 1: the richest men on the entire planet was actually a

1527
01:15:35,439 --> 01:15:38,679
Speaker 1: massive fraud, using a network of shell companies to manipulate

1528
01:15:38,720 --> 01:15:41,800
Speaker 1: the valuation of his corporate Empire stock and to falsify

1529
01:15:41,960 --> 01:15:45,040
Speaker 1: his balance sheets. The fallout has been swift, and it

1530
01:15:45,120 --> 01:15:49,759
Speaker 1: has been dramatic, erasing one hundred billion dollars in corporate

1531
01:15:49,840 --> 01:15:52,000
Speaker 1: value in just a matter of days and shaking the

1532
01:15:52,040 --> 01:15:55,120
Speaker 1: economy of an entire nation. All right, so here are

1533
01:15:55,240 --> 01:15:58,639
Speaker 1: the details. Gata Montani is not only the richest man

1534
01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:01,320
Speaker 1: in India but in all of Asia. His rise was

1535
01:16:01,360 --> 01:16:04,320
Speaker 1: intertwined with the rise of Prime Minister Modi. Both hailed

1536
01:16:04,360 --> 01:16:07,599
Speaker 1: from the Indian state of Gujrat. Donni guaranteed Mody's longtime

1537
01:16:07,640 --> 01:16:10,400
Speaker 1: loyalty when he broke from the Indian business community consensus

1538
01:16:10,600 --> 01:16:13,599
Speaker 1: and defended Mody over the deadly anti Muslim rise which

1539
01:16:13,640 --> 01:16:16,880
Speaker 1: unfolded under Mody's watch. As he rose to power, a

1540
01:16:17,000 --> 01:16:21,000
Speaker 1: Donnie also rose to vast wealth, with enterprises deeply intertwined

1541
01:16:21,040 --> 01:16:24,360
Speaker 1: with and critical to the Indian state. Now today A

1542
01:16:24,400 --> 01:16:28,200
Speaker 1: Donnie's empire spans coal, green energy, ports, airports, and a

1543
01:16:28,240 --> 01:16:32,280
Speaker 1: whole lot more. He is, in large part the industrialists

1544
01:16:32,320 --> 01:16:35,759
Speaker 1: building the nation state that Mody envisions. The state backs

1545
01:16:35,840 --> 01:16:38,280
Speaker 1: him and he backs the state. Now this has led

1546
01:16:38,280 --> 01:16:40,920
Speaker 1: to the accumulation of vast wealth on the scale of

1547
01:16:41,000 --> 01:16:44,800
Speaker 1: household name titans, people like Bezos, Musk and Gates. But

1548
01:16:45,240 --> 01:16:48,919
Speaker 1: according to Hindenburg Research, this fantastic journey to world dominance

1549
01:16:48,960 --> 01:16:52,320
Speaker 1: is being propped up by fakery and outright fraud. Essentially,

1550
01:16:52,360 --> 01:16:54,719
Speaker 1: they claimed that a Donnie used dozens of shell companies,

1551
01:16:54,720 --> 01:16:57,679
Speaker 1: most in the notorious tax haven of Mauritius, to pump

1552
01:16:57,760 --> 01:17:00,920
Speaker 1: up their stock price and launder their balance sheets, inflating

1553
01:17:00,960 --> 01:17:03,720
Speaker 1: asset prices so that their financial health would appear much

1554
01:17:03,760 --> 01:17:06,919
Speaker 1: better than it actually is. Many of these shell companies

1555
01:17:07,120 --> 01:17:11,000
Speaker 1: seemingly only business was holding a Donnie stock. As one

1556
01:17:11,040 --> 01:17:13,960
Speaker 1: former shell company employee put it, quote, I think this

1557
01:17:14,280 --> 01:17:17,120
Speaker 1: stock is definitely held by the Adanni Group because nobody

1558
01:17:17,120 --> 01:17:19,439
Speaker 1: else would want to buy it. As any investor, why

1559
01:17:19,439 --> 01:17:21,880
Speaker 1: would you invest with the Adanni group? You know the

1560
01:17:21,880 --> 01:17:24,599
Speaker 1: stock is inflated and they cannot be trusted and looking

1561
01:17:24,600 --> 01:17:27,200
Speaker 1: at the business, it is a house of cards. It's

1562
01:17:27,200 --> 01:17:29,599
Speaker 1: all fueled on debt, and if the Modi government goes

1563
01:17:29,600 --> 01:17:32,679
Speaker 1: out of power, maybe the whole thing comes crashing down.

1564
01:17:33,280 --> 01:17:36,679
Speaker 1: This phony picture of financial health and inflated stock prices

1565
01:17:36,760 --> 01:17:40,840
Speaker 1: allowed a Donnie to borrow vast amounts of money, loading

1566
01:17:40,920 --> 01:17:44,120
Speaker 1: all of their companies up with debt and further imperiling

1567
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:47,640
Speaker 1: their financial health, but also enabling them to pursue some

1568
01:17:47,680 --> 01:17:51,360
Speaker 1: of those big infrastructure projects to build up the Indian economy.

1569
01:17:51,760 --> 01:17:55,160
Speaker 1: Hindenberg's report reveals not only details of those alleged crimes,

1570
01:17:55,240 --> 01:17:57,960
Speaker 1: but also of the cover up. The shell businesses were

1571
01:17:58,000 --> 01:18:01,480
Speaker 1: set up with phony websites describing businessinesses that are nonsensical.

1572
01:18:01,640 --> 01:18:04,640
Speaker 1: They use stock photos. Many of them had no employees.

1573
01:18:04,840 --> 01:18:08,320
Speaker 1: The Adotting corporate empire is closely controlled by family members,

1574
01:18:08,320 --> 01:18:10,080
Speaker 1: which of course would be a good way to keep

1575
01:18:10,120 --> 01:18:14,200
Speaker 1: prying outside eyes from raising objections to potential fraud. Financial

1576
01:18:14,200 --> 01:18:17,600
Speaker 1: officers of the conglomerate come and go in rapid succession.

1577
01:18:18,000 --> 01:18:21,479
Speaker 1: Hindenberg also documents a series of sketchy characters with prior

1578
01:18:21,600 --> 01:18:25,000
Speaker 1: history of stock manipulation and fraud who are involved in

1579
01:18:25,040 --> 01:18:29,320
Speaker 1: this whole enterprise, and the outside auditors who would be

1580
01:18:29,360 --> 01:18:32,960
Speaker 1: responsible for revealing these schemes are wildly inexperienced and appear

1581
01:18:33,240 --> 01:18:37,200
Speaker 1: wholly unable to actually audit complex enterprises. So there you go,

1582
01:18:37,680 --> 01:18:41,000
Speaker 1: a global empire intertwined with the Indian state, pumped up

1583
01:18:41,040 --> 01:18:43,960
Speaker 1: by fake stock prices, balance sheet manipulation, and allowed to

1584
01:18:43,960 --> 01:18:46,840
Speaker 1: get away with it due to their symbiotic relationship with

1585
01:18:46,960 --> 01:18:50,280
Speaker 1: the Indian government. Hindenberg itself has a pretty good track

1586
01:18:50,320 --> 01:18:53,320
Speaker 1: record of exposing real fraud. For example, they exposed lies

1587
01:18:53,320 --> 01:18:56,240
Speaker 1: at electric truckmaker Nicola, which eventually led to the CEO

1588
01:18:56,360 --> 01:18:59,040
Speaker 1: of that company being found guilty of fraud. But as

1589
01:18:59,080 --> 01:19:00,960
Speaker 1: we weigh the merit of these allegations, it's of course

1590
01:19:01,000 --> 01:19:04,120
Speaker 1: important and keep in mind Hindenberg is ultimately a short seller.

1591
01:19:04,160 --> 01:19:07,320
Speaker 1: Their entire business model does rely on leveling allegations of

1592
01:19:07,320 --> 01:19:09,839
Speaker 1: fraud and then profiting off of the resulting stock decline

1593
01:19:09,920 --> 01:19:12,400
Speaker 1: in value. So although they do have a very good

1594
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:14,880
Speaker 1: track record, they are also not a disinterested party. Just

1595
01:19:14,920 --> 01:19:17,200
Speaker 1: want to put that out there. As for a Donnie,

1596
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:20,360
Speaker 1: in their response, they leaned heavily into Indian nationalism. They

1597
01:19:20,360 --> 01:19:23,599
Speaker 1: claimed Hindenberg's research was an attack on the Indian state itself,

1598
01:19:23,880 --> 01:19:26,679
Speaker 1: but they actually answered few of the substantive questions which

1599
01:19:26,720 --> 01:19:30,519
Speaker 1: were raised. They do, though fully deny any wrongdoing. The

1600
01:19:30,560 --> 01:19:34,080
Speaker 1: fallout for this report has been truly astonishing. A Dotting

1601
01:19:34,120 --> 01:19:36,599
Speaker 1: Company's plummeted in the stock market. They lost one hundred

1602
01:19:36,600 --> 01:19:39,519
Speaker 1: billion dollars in value in a single week. A Donnie's

1603
01:19:39,520 --> 01:19:43,080
Speaker 1: fortune has similarly collapses, estimated to have lost half his

1604
01:19:43,240 --> 01:19:45,880
Speaker 1: net worth since the report's release. It's been such a

1605
01:19:45,880 --> 01:19:48,680
Speaker 1: catastrophe that he actually had to abruptly pull a two

1606
01:19:48,720 --> 01:19:51,040
Speaker 1: point five billion dollar stock sale, saying it would not

1607
01:19:51,120 --> 01:19:54,280
Speaker 1: be morally correct to go through with it at this time.

1608
01:19:54,760 --> 01:19:57,200
Speaker 1: The collapse in the company's stock price meant that any

1609
01:19:57,240 --> 01:20:00,360
Speaker 1: investor in the new stock sale would be immediately signing

1610
01:20:00,479 --> 01:20:03,840
Speaker 1: up for a big loss. Economist Adam Two's recently spoke

1611
01:20:03,920 --> 01:20:06,120
Speaker 1: about the likely fallout in India and how this is

1612
01:20:06,160 --> 01:20:08,960
Speaker 1: all being interpreted by the domestic audience. Here's what he

1613
01:20:09,000 --> 01:20:11,880
Speaker 1: had to say. There's really an element of culture clash here.

1614
01:20:12,040 --> 01:20:16,600
Speaker 1: I mean, there aren't many players in the Indian financial

1615
01:20:16,680 --> 01:20:20,040
Speaker 1: markets who imagine that the value of the Adani Group

1616
01:20:20,400 --> 01:20:24,920
Speaker 1: is determined in a conventionally free and fair way, because

1617
01:20:24,920 --> 01:20:27,400
Speaker 1: people aren't naive about the way in which India's political

1618
01:20:27,439 --> 01:20:32,080
Speaker 1: economy operates. And the sophisticated rationale for what's going on

1619
01:20:32,160 --> 01:20:37,880
Speaker 1: in India is that Indian financial investors know that it

1620
01:20:37,960 --> 01:20:41,519
Speaker 1: is indeed the impunity if you like the ability of

1621
01:20:41,560 --> 01:20:45,240
Speaker 1: the Adani Group too if necessary, you know, produce rather

1622
01:20:45,360 --> 01:20:49,000
Speaker 1: high valuations of its assets to sustain large amounts of credit.

1623
01:20:49,680 --> 01:20:51,880
Speaker 1: That is part of their business plan. And with the

1624
01:20:51,920 --> 01:20:54,360
Speaker 1: backing that they enjoy in political circles. They are not

1625
01:20:54,479 --> 01:20:57,720
Speaker 1: just too big to fail, but essentially essentially identified with

1626
01:20:57,800 --> 01:20:59,920
Speaker 1: the Modi I project. So long as that is hedgemon

1627
01:21:00,520 --> 01:21:04,000
Speaker 1: in Indian politics, these businesses cannot fail. So there is

1628
01:21:04,040 --> 01:21:06,400
Speaker 1: in fact very little risks that you won't get paid back.

1629
01:21:06,960 --> 01:21:10,439
Speaker 1: And there is some prospect and in fact no prospect

1630
01:21:10,479 --> 01:21:14,120
Speaker 1: any other way, of this major infrastructure in India actually

1631
01:21:14,160 --> 01:21:17,240
Speaker 1: getting built because they are the last resort, if you like,

1632
01:21:17,280 --> 01:21:21,679
Speaker 1: of the Indian state machine. And to that extent, no harm,

1633
01:21:21,720 --> 01:21:23,720
Speaker 1: no foul. Look to his point, it'd be one thing

1634
01:21:23,760 --> 01:21:26,080
Speaker 1: if this was just an India only story, state aligned

1635
01:21:26,200 --> 01:21:29,040
Speaker 1: enterprise propped up by state affiliated capital and state subsidies.

1636
01:21:29,040 --> 01:21:31,599
Speaker 1: It's basically a tale as old as time. But while

1637
01:21:31,640 --> 01:21:34,599
Speaker 1: the reverberations will be felt most acutely in India, no doubt,

1638
01:21:34,800 --> 01:21:39,000
Speaker 1: we're talking about sophisticated global investors in titanic banks or

1639
01:21:39,080 --> 01:21:42,200
Speaker 1: snookered by the fake stock prices and rigged balance sheets

1640
01:21:42,280 --> 01:21:46,240
Speaker 1: allegedly who forked over gigantic loans to fund this conglomerate

1641
01:21:46,280 --> 01:21:49,160
Speaker 1: based on alleged fraud, which taken together, as Haandenburg quotes,

1642
01:21:49,200 --> 01:21:52,839
Speaker 1: it would amount to the largest corporate con in history,

1643
01:21:53,280 --> 01:21:57,560
Speaker 1: City Group, credit, Swees, Barclays, and more, all scrambling to

1644
01:21:57,600 --> 01:22:00,920
Speaker 1: figure out what their exposure is on this whole house

1645
01:22:01,040 --> 01:22:03,960
Speaker 1: of cards. Yet another illustration of how easy it is,

1646
01:22:04,000 --> 01:22:06,160
Speaker 1: apparently to rig the game, pull the wool over the

1647
01:22:06,160 --> 01:22:09,880
Speaker 1: eyes of the supposedly most brilliant, sophisticated people in the world,

1648
01:22:10,160 --> 01:22:14,400
Speaker 1: the scam economy with a massive global reach. And you

1649
01:22:14,439 --> 01:22:17,679
Speaker 1: know it's funny because he's not a household name here. Yeah,

1650
01:22:17,720 --> 01:22:20,000
Speaker 1: oh there, you made this point. And if you want

1651
01:22:20,000 --> 01:22:22,920
Speaker 1: to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium

1652
01:22:22,920 --> 01:22:28,840
Speaker 1: subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, guys, thanks

1653
01:22:28,880 --> 01:22:31,559
Speaker 1: for sticking with us. It's a fun show to be back. Reminder,

1654
01:22:31,600 --> 01:22:33,479
Speaker 1: we got the State of the Union live stream tomorrow

1655
01:22:33,520 --> 01:22:35,479
Speaker 1: starting at eight pm. We'll have great coverage for you

1656
01:22:35,560 --> 01:22:38,439
Speaker 1: before and after the State of the Union. Welcome to

1657
01:22:38,520 --> 01:22:40,559
Speaker 1: our new JRI listeners and all of you. We really

1658
01:22:40,600 --> 01:22:43,080
Speaker 1: appreciate some of your support and it's going to be

1659
01:22:43,080 --> 01:22:44,800
Speaker 1: a fun ride as we go into the twenty twenty

1660
01:22:44,840 --> 01:22:47,479
Speaker 1: four election. But with that, we'll see you all tomorrow Tomorrow.

1661
01:22:47,479 --> 01:22:50,400
Speaker 1: We guys, see you tomorrow evening eight pm. It's going

1662
01:22:50,479 --> 01:22:59,640
Speaker 1: to be fun,