1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:10,479 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: DABA Acurate podcast, available every morning on Apples, Spotify or 3 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the twenty sixth of March 4 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: in London and Caroline Hepka coming up today. Exclusive reporting 5 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg uncovers evidence that Elon Musk's Starlink terminals are 6 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: falling into the wrong hands. Traders bet that the Bank 7 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: of England will start cutting interest rates before its appeers 8 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:37,200 Speaker 1: as inflationary risks ease and Bailey goes dubvish plus. Donald 9 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: Trump's wealth has risen by four billion dollars and it 10 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 1: happened on the same day his business empire was supposed 11 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: to be in peril like never before. We have the details. 12 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: Let's start with a round op of our top stories. 13 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News investigation is uncovered multiple examples of Starlink terminals 14 00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: being traded and activated illegally in the likes of Russia, Yemen, 15 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: and Venezuela. Our exclusive reporting has found that these satellite 16 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: links are being activated in territories where the US company 17 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: has no agreement to operate. Bloomberg's senior editor, Alan Crawford 18 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: has been tracing the sales of Starlink terminals. 19 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 2: There are many countries around the world where there's no 20 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 2: licensing agreement between the government and Starlink, and the trouble 21 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 2: is that people are turning to the black market to 22 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 2: obtain Starlink devices in away. 23 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: The work of Alan Crawford and colleagues or across Bloomberg 24 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 1: has raised questions about the company's control of a system 25 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: with clear national security dimensions. SpaceX has not responded to 26 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's requests for comment on the investigation. Now, trade is 27 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: are betting that the Bank of England could beat its 28 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: European and US peers to interest rate cuts. Money markets 29 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: have raised wages on easing at its next monetary policy decision, 30 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: putting the probability of cut in the UK at twenty percent. 31 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's James Orcock has more. 32 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 3: Britain was supposed to be lagging behind in the rate 33 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 3: cut in race, but these words from Bank of England 34 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 3: Governor Andrew Bailey as made markets reevaluates. 35 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, we don't have to actually get inflation all the 36 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 4: way back to target sustainably to cut rights, for instance. 37 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 4: What we have to do is be convinced that it 38 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 4: is going to go there. We should act ahead of 39 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 4: time in that sense, because we have to be forward looking. 40 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: He also told the FT rate cuts were in play 41 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 3: at future meetings. That shift in tone has markets repositioning 42 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 3: the odds of a quarter point rate cuts in May 43 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 3: and now double that of the FED or the ECB. 44 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 3: It's a big shift, with the BOE having overtaken the 45 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 3: other two during the course of this year. In London, 46 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 3: James Orcock Bloomberg Radio. 47 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: The US and UK are accusing state backed Chinese hackers 48 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: of cyber attacks spanning years and stealing the data of 49 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: some forty million British voters. American officials charged seven Chinese 50 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: nationals with attacks on politicians and companies that Washington and 51 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: allies have linked to present Sijingping's government. Former UK National 52 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: security advisor Mark Lyle Grant says that formerly accusing China 53 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: is an important step. 54 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 5: The fact they're now calling out China rather than saying 55 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 5: we don't know where it's from, or just raising it 56 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 5: with the Chinese ambassador privately, I think is a sign 57 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 5: of a greater willingness to use intelligence to prevent hostile 58 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 5: activity against the UK. 59 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: So Mark Laya Grant speaking there. Both the US and 60 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: UK have announced sanctions against two Chinese individuals and a 61 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: firm in wu Han. China Prime Minister Vishisunak says that 62 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: the attacks present an epoch defining challenge. Boeing's CEO of 63 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: four years, Dave Calhoun, is stepping down. According to those 64 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: familiar with the matter, his departure was spurred by the 65 00:03:55,080 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: CEO at the manufacturer's three largest US customers pressuring board 66 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: members to control its safety crisis. Bloomberg's Guy Johnson says 67 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: Calhoun's successor will face a number of challenges. 68 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 6: The real question now is who could ultimately replace him. 69 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 6: He will be there until the end of the year, 70 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 6: in some ways as a lame duck CEO. The name 71 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 6: that is being floated Larry Culp from GE. But our 72 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:25,039 Speaker 6: understanding is that maybe Larry Culp doesn't want the job. 73 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 6: Why would he want such a tricky job at such 74 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 6: a tricky time, particularly after he has just fixed GE 75 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 6: and put it back into a much better place. 76 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: That was Bloomberg Anca Guy Johnson Berring chairman Larry Kellner 77 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 1: will not stand for re election, and Stan Deal, who 78 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 1: heads the company's commercial airplane division, is departing immediately Now. 79 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: Adam Newman has reportedly made an offer to buy the 80 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: bankrupt company we Work More from Bloomberg's Doug Krisner. 81 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 7: Newman as We Work's former CEO. He's also a company 82 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 7: co found Five years ago. Newman was ousted by the board, 83 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 7: and he's been trying to regain control ever since. The 84 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 7: Wall Street Journal says Newman recently submitted an offer to 85 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 7: buy the company for more than five hundred million dollars. 86 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 7: It wasn't immediately clear how Newman would finance the acquisition. 87 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 7: The journal says Newman's lawyer sent a letter to Wei 88 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 7: Works Advisors last month saying he was joining with Dan 89 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 7: Loebe's hedge fund, Third Point and other investors in exploring 90 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 7: a bid. I'm Doug Prisner, Bloomberg Radio. 91 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: Monday was also a big day for Donald Trump. His 92 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: fortune hit a record six and a half billion US dollars, 93 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,239 Speaker 1: and a bond payment of more than five hundred billion 94 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: dollars was cut by more than half. The former president's 95 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,479 Speaker 1: social media company, Trump Media and Technology Group, wrapped up 96 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: to twenty nine month long merger process, so that increased 97 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: Trump's net worth by more than four billion dollars, adding 98 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:56,039 Speaker 1: Trump to the ranks of Bloomberg's Billionaires Index for the 99 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,799 Speaker 1: very first time. At the same time, a state appeals 100 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: gave him a lifeline. He was facing a deadline to 101 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: post a bond of more than five hundred million dollars 102 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: in a New York fraud lawsuit. The court slashed the 103 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: sum to one hundred and seventy five million dollars and 104 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: amount that Trump said he'll cover. The net resulted that 105 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: for the first time ever, Donald Trump has joined the 106 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 1: ranks of the world's wealthiest five hundred people on Bloomberg's 107 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: Billionaires Index. So those are some of our top stories 108 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: then for you this morning. Now in a moment, we're 109 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: going to bring you more on the misuse of Elon 110 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,840 Speaker 1: Musk's Starlink delivering broadband internet to countries that have no 111 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: agreement to operate it. But first I saw this on 112 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal, And of course I'm always interested in property. 113 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: Property in London may have become more affordable in the 114 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: past five years, but homes in England are still eye 115 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: wateringly expensive if you compare them to earnings, which Bloomberg's 116 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: Tom Reas and Andrew Atkinson have done for us. I've 117 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: been looking at the OERNS data and they have found 118 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 1: that London homes still costs all almost twelve times earnings. 119 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: London may have been the worst performing region in England 120 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 1: for house prices in twenty twenty three, but it still 121 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: doesn't stop it being immensely difficult. Kensington and Chelsea in 122 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: West London have the least affordable homes. The median price 123 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: paid for home in just that little neighborhood thirty four 124 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: times average annual earnings. So that story on London property 125 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal for you this morning. Now let's 126 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: get more on Bloomberg's exclusive reporting that to smuggled kits 127 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: from Elon Musk's Starlink are falling into the wrong hands. 128 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: These satellite links are being activated in territories where the 129 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: company has no agreement to operate, places like Russia, Yemen 130 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: and Venezuela. It is the subject of today's Big Take. 131 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: Joining me now to discuss it is our global business 132 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: reporter Bruce Einhorn. Bruce, good morning. I suppose the first 133 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: question is how are these unapproved groups and countries actually 134 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: getting hold of these units. 135 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 8: Starlink has over about fifty five hundred I think even 136 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 8: more satellites circling the Earth. If you get a dish 137 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 8: which you can buy in some location where perhaps it 138 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 8: is available, then you can get your dish back into 139 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 8: your country where it's not authorized, you can access the signal. 140 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 8: There are some countries in the world, the UK, other 141 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 8: countries in Europe, the United States, Japan where starlink has 142 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 8: a license, But there are many other places in Africa 143 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 8: and Asia, Latin America, where Middle East, where the governments 144 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 8: have not authorized this, so technically it is illegal to 145 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 8: use starlink in those places. 146 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,679 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I mean that these countries, some of them 147 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: at least have in common the fact that they're at war. 148 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 1: How big an issue is this whole idea of using 149 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: these kits illegally, of smuggling these kits and why do 150 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 1: they want the units so much these places? 151 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 8: Well, it is very good system. So the appeal of 152 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:07,079 Speaker 8: starlink is that you're independent of the cellular network, you're 153 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 8: independent of the landline. You can access the Internet via 154 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 8: these lower orbit satellites and have high speed access to 155 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 8: the Internet, and so it is something that appeals to 156 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 8: people in all sorts of places, whether it's in a 157 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 8: war zone, say in occupied Ukraine, where the Ukrainian government 158 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 8: has said that Russians have been using it, something that 159 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 8: Starlink says is not something they've authorized at all, or 160 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 8: in other places like Yemen, like Sudan where the infrastructure 161 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 8: is just not very good and so suddenly if you've 162 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 8: got a starlink terminal, you're independent of that. 163 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, your head and shoulders above everybody else. But 164 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: surely they can be tracked. Can't they just be turned 165 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: off remotely? 166 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 8: That is a question of just what is the ability 167 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:05,559 Speaker 8: of SpaceX to turn these off? And SpaceX has said that, 168 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 8: uh that for instance, if there's use by Russian forces 169 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 8: that that is not something that they authorize, SpaceX has 170 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 8: taken action. 171 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 4: Uh. 172 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 8: In some cases, The question is just how much are 173 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 8: they aware of what's going on, because it is something 174 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 8: that keeping an eye on all the the unauthorized use 175 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,439 Speaker 8: is a high task. 176 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 7: Yeah. 177 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 1: Absolutely so. Then how are starlink and elon Musk responding? 178 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: Have they responded to these findings this report? 179 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 6: We are. 180 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 8: They did respond in earlier this year when there were 181 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 8: the reports out of out of Ukraine about Russian use. 182 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 8: Elon Musk and SpaceX did come and then saying that 183 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 8: this is not something that they approve of as far 184 00:10:54,000 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 8: as use of it in places like uh yeah, in Sudan, 185 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 8: or even in places like South Africa must birthplace where 186 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 8: the government has not authorized it, but yet there is 187 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,319 Speaker 8: a thriving black market. It's unclear what the company's position 188 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 8: is on whether they're obliged to do anything more. 189 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 7: Yeah. 190 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 1: Absolutely, Bruce, Thank you so much for being with us 191 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: and for your reporting. Bruce Einhorn's peace, along with his colleagues, 192 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 1: is on the Blouemig terminal this morning. Elon Musk's Starling 193 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,439 Speaker 1: terminals are falling into the wrong hands. The effectiveness is 194 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: a communication tool makes the satellite internet service a target 195 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: for a growing trade on the black market. Really fascinating, Bruce. 196 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: Thanks for being with us, and I know that you'll 197 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: keep us up to date with any response that we 198 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,679 Speaker 1: do get, perhaps from Starlink or from Elon Musk or 199 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: any of the others that we've reported about. Right I's sot. 200 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: My attention then also to the UK and trade is 201 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: betting on the Bank of England could be the first 202 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: major central bank to cut interest rates this year. That's 203 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: a big shift, isn't it from many a few months 204 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: ago where mates in the UK were expected to stay 205 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: high for longer than in the US and in Europe. 206 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: Garfield Reynolds, our lead for our Asia Markets live coverage, 207 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: joins us now. Garfield, very good morning to you, thanks 208 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: for being on radio. Is this more to do than 209 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: with the weakness of the UK economy than with the 210 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: Bank of England managing to beat back inflation? 211 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 9: Well, I mean there's a bit of both, and certainly 212 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 9: one of the paths to taming inflation is to hurt 213 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 9: the economy. That's, for example, the attitude taken by New 214 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 9: Zealand's central bank governor, who's been quite happy to see 215 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 9: a recession, well at least willing to see a recession 216 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 9: in order to try and tame inflation. So you know, 217 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 9: the Gooe is looking at the potential to cut rates 218 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 9: sooner than a lot of people, possibly you're including inside 219 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 9: the bank. After all, it was only the last meeting 220 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 9: when we had a couple of the Hawks stop voting 221 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 9: for rate hikes. So it has been a rapid evolution, 222 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 9: and that's because inflation in the UK k has continued 223 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,079 Speaker 9: to slow down in a way that it hasn't quite 224 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 9: done especially in the US, so they don't face as 225 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 9: many concerns about lingering inflation. 226 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, although the banking has been concerned about the second 227 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: round effects, are these now being seen as less of 228 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: an issue by traders? I mean, why are trade is 229 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:21,439 Speaker 1: sort of shifting now? 230 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,679 Speaker 9: Well, I think because one of the big things was 231 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 9: the words we had from Governor Bailey earlier in the 232 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 9: program when he was talking about how we don't need 233 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 9: to get back to the target before we actually cut 234 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 9: rates if we have confident we're going to get there. 235 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 9: So that's more open to rate cuts than Chairman Powell 236 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 9: has sounded, even than Christine Legarde has sounded, And in particular, 237 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 9: I was looking Bloomberg Economics and others have been saying 238 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 9: they expect the UK inflation rate to be back at 239 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 9: or under the target by about June, and then before 240 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 9: that was when they were thinking that rate cuts would come. 241 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 9: But if you say you think that inflation will be 242 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 9: where it needs to be by June or roundabout or 243 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 9: maybe very early in the second half, and Governor Bailey 244 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 9: is saying we could cut before we get there, well 245 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 9: then you know that does bring in the odds for 246 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 9: a May cut, even which would definitely be before anybody 247 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 9: else looks likely moving. 248 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: Okay, speaking of which I mean the Fed is June 249 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: still the base case. I mean, Friday is going to 250 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: be awkward. We get both a PC but also jo 251 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: and Powell is speaking on Friday even though markets are closed. 252 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 9: Yeah, the market's being closed, you know, could make for 253 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 9: an exciting open to next week once we get going. 254 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 9: But it's also the data has been jumping around a bit, 255 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 9: you know, in the US, but the Fed has been 256 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 9: emphasizing that they still see the path to softer inflation intact, 257 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 9: and in particular to some extent, I think they've proved themselves, 258 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 9: perhaps against too much of a reaction by the latest 259 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 9: dot plots. They stuck with seventy five basis points for 260 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 9: this year. They kept their inflation forecasts recently contained, but 261 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 9: they also lifted their growth forecasts, So they're kind of 262 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 9: forecasting a Goldilock's outcome of okay inflation, okay growth, even 263 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 9: if they cut interest rates three times this year. With 264 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 9: that being the case, you need to see some pretty 265 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 9: extraordinary shifts in the data, and you need to see 266 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 9: more than just two or three data points. You probably 267 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 9: need to see four or five. So with that again, 268 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 9: people are girding themselves for this could be really rock markets. 269 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 9: The FED has done their absolute best to set things 270 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 9: up so that markets cannot be rocked. 271 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 10: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 272 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 10: stories making news from London to Wall Streets and beyond. 273 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify, 274 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 275 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 10: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio, 276 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 10: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 277 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 278 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 279 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and. 280 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 10: I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all 281 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 10: the news you need to start your day right here 282 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 10: on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe