1 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 1: Hi everyone, and welcome to Bloomberg Intelligence Talking Transports Podcast. 2 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Lee Klascas, senior freight transportation logistics Analysts 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg's in house research arm. Before diving 4 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: in a little public service announcement, your support is instrumental 5 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: in keeping us to be able to bring great guests 6 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: onto the podcast, like the one we're going to have today. 7 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: If you haven't already, please do take a moment to 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 1: follow rate and share the Talking Transport Podcast. We appreciate 9 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: your support. With that out of the way, I'm very 10 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: excited to have Bob Costello, the Chief Economist and Senior 11 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: Vice President for the American Trucking Associations or the ATA, 12 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: which is a national trade association for the trucking industry. 13 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 1: As chief Economists, he manages all of ata's collection, analysis, 14 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: and dissemination of trucking economic information. He's been with the 15 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: ATA for over twenty five years. Bob also heads up 16 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: the ata's International Trade and Security Policy Department. In this capacity, 17 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:06,559 Speaker 1: he works on issues related to US MCA, tariffs, customs. 18 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 2: And security. 19 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty two, Bob was appointed by the Secretary 20 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: of Commerce to serve on the Advisory Committee on Supply 21 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: Chain Competitiveness. He is on the board of the Directors 22 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 1: for the Border Trade Alliance. Bob is also a member 23 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,279 Speaker 1: of the National Association for Business Economics and a member 24 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: of the Industrial Economics Group over at Harvard University. He 25 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: has a master's degree from the University of Northern Iowa 26 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: and a bachelor's of Art from Winona State University. Thanks 27 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: for joining us on the podcast, Bob. 28 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 2: How you doing, Lee, It's great to be here. I 29 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 2: always enjoy catching up with you and looking forward to 30 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 2: to the discussion. 31 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, trucking obviously always top of mind for me, 32 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: but investors right now it's really topical. We had JB. 33 00:01:55,920 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: Hunt report earnings last night. We had Knights Swift this 34 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: morning kind of lower their expectations. 35 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 2: Could you just. 36 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: Talk about what is going on in the trucking market 37 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: right now? 38 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 2: Well, we continue to be in what I would consider 39 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 2: a recession in the truck freight market. It's been stubbornly long. 40 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: You know, it depends on the metric you look at, 41 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 2: and I'm sure we'll get into some of that later, 42 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: but you know, starting what about a year ago, we 43 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 2: started to see freight really fall off and it's been 44 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 2: painfully long process at this at this point and you know, 45 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: and we can probably talk about the broader macroeconomy and 46 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 2: why I think all that is happening, but it's it's 47 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 2: you know, I'll be honest with you. You know, it's 48 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:55,239 Speaker 2: been a longer down market than I would have thought, 49 00:02:55,440 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 2: mainly because of supply side issues. Right, yes, depends demand soft. 50 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: It's been soft. It's it's not good. But at the 51 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: end of the day, we have too many trucks chasing 52 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 2: too little freight. And until you get that supply side 53 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 2: sort of coming closer to equilibrium, I think it's gonna 54 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 2: be a tough freight market. And we can we can 55 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: certainly talk about some of the supply side issues and 56 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 2: so forth, but that's in a nutshell. I think it's 57 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: been going on for the last year or so. Right. 58 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: I love talking to you, Bob, because you know, I 59 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 1: think we've known each other for over twenty years, even 60 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: back during my my cell side days. You know, the 61 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: ATA touches trucking like no other organization, you know. Just 62 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: so before we get further into the conversation, can you 63 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: talk about with the ATA and the companies that you 64 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: represent Yeah. 65 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 2: So we are by far the largest trade association here 66 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 2: in Washington, d C. Representing the trucking industry, and our 67 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: primary members are the fleets themselves, right, and a lot 68 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: of you know four higher truckload less than truckload, you know, 69 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 2: obviously it's it's most of the very large carriers in 70 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 2: both of those segments, but we have a lot, we have, 71 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 2: you know, hundreds and thousands really of medium and smaller 72 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 2: trucking companies, so we do have the gamut. And of 73 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 2: course then beyond the fleets themselves, we've got this all 74 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 2: the industry or many of the industry suppliers to the industry, 75 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: from the large OEMs truck and trailer OEMs, to you know, 76 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 2: insurance companies and tire companies, and anybody that wants to 77 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 2: sell a good or a service to a trucking fleet 78 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 2: is generally many of them are members of ATA as well. 79 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 2: But again, our primary member are those four high are 80 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,160 Speaker 2: those motor carriers, i should say, and we represent them 81 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 2: to the regulatory agencies. Capitol Hill. We have a Capitol 82 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 2: Hill office. I'm sitting in our main headquarters only really 83 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 2: a stone throw from the Capitol, but we also have 84 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 2: a Capitol Hill office and then the courts when needed, 85 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 2: and of course you know unfortunately that sometimes that's needed. 86 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: Right, And I would also mention you know, ATA usually 87 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 1: not usually they have an annual conference in October. Yeah, 88 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 1: which is which which for anyone that's interested in trucking, 89 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 1: ramping up networking, it's it's probably one of the musta 90 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: tends on my list every year when it comes to 91 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 1: going to a trucking related conference. 92 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're excited this year. We will be in Nashville 93 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 2: actually in October. 94 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 1: Cool, looking forward to it. So let's talk transport since 95 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: that's the name of the podcast. You know, you mentioned 96 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: the supply side. Can you talk more about, you know, 97 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: how we got to this moment in time where there 98 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: is too many truckers or trucks chasing too much freight, 99 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: were too little freight? 100 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 2: Sorry you and I, As you said, you know, we've 101 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 2: known each other for twenty plus years. I've been doing 102 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 2: this for going on twenty seven years. I can't hardly 103 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,599 Speaker 2: believe that. And every cycle is different, right, and this 104 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,679 Speaker 2: cycle has been very unique. And in order to fully 105 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 2: understand this cycle, you really have to go back to 106 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 2: the first quarter of twenty twenty when the pandemic started, right, 107 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 2: And when that happened, you know, I remember trucking companies 108 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: and members coming to me and go, what the heck's 109 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 2: going to happen? And I'm like, I don't know. We've 110 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 2: had a pandemic, a global pandemic and one hundred years, right. 111 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 2: But but you know, here's the interesting thing. Twenty two 112 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 2: million people lost their jobs essentially overnight. But the fast 113 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 2: majority of people were working. But what couldn't they do. 114 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 2: They couldn't travel, they couldn't go to sporting events, they 115 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 2: couldn't go to the movies, they couldn't go to concerts 116 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 2: and name it. And so we had to look for 117 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 2: other outlets of our spending. And what did we do. 118 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 2: We all just started buying stuff. And we see this unbelievable, 119 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 2: really unprecedented surge in truck freight activity. Right, the goods 120 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: side of the economy boomed while the services side of 121 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 2: the economy did not. And that was great in the 122 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 2: second half of twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, and really 123 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: even early into twenty twenty two, or maybe the first 124 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 2: half of twenty twenty two. And then things start to 125 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 2: slow down. We start to get you know, the pandemic 126 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 2: gets better, and by twenty twenty three, households were like, hey, 127 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 2: I've bought a bunch of stuff, right, and I fixed 128 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 2: up the house and I did all this work. I 129 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 2: bought a new dishwasher and a new refrigerator and all 130 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 2: sorts of stuff. But what I really want to do 131 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 2: is I want to go out that and I want 132 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 2: to travel. I want to go to sporting events. I 133 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 2: want to go to the Taylor Swift and Beyonce concerts. 134 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 2: I want to do and and and we see this, 135 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 2: just like we saw this unbelievable shift to the good 136 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 2: side of the economy, the reverse happens and that, and 137 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 2: we're still sort of in that cycle. You know. We 138 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 2: went from I travel a ton, We went from fairly 139 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 2: empty planes to completely full planes. And while all of 140 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 2: those those experiences require truck freight movements, they are a 141 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 2: lot less truck intensive than when we buy a good. 142 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 2: And so during the boom time, what do we had, 143 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 2: We had trucking companies come into existence. Now a lot 144 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 2: of those, by the way, we're simply owner operators, leaving 145 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 2: the least on company and going into the spot market 146 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 2: on their own. So I do think it was artificially inflated. 147 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 2: But the fact of the matter is some truck it was, 148 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 2: and it was, you know. The good thing. I think 149 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 2: one of the limitations was it was hard to expand 150 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 2: as a trucking company because you couldn't get the trucks 151 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 2: you wanted. But at the end of the day, the 152 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 2: trucking industry, and in particular in the spot market, made 153 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 2: an incredible amount of money. And so what I think 154 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 2: happened is, and we have data on this, by the way, 155 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 2: Lee And and what happened was we followed a single 156 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 2: truck through the spot market starting and during at the 157 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: beginning of the pandemic, and we believe, based on data 158 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 2: from ACTRE, based on spot market data and so forth, 159 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 2: we believed that a single truck could have amassed roughly 160 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: one hundred thousand dollars in sort of cumulative savings during 161 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 2: the peak. Okay, and that's if they were disciplined, and 162 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 2: not everybody was disciplined. In fact, many of them went 163 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 2: out and bought that really expensive used equipment. I think 164 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 2: many of those folks are on the way out or 165 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 2: are already out. And this, by the way, our analysis 166 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 2: doesn't even include any COVID PPP money they might have received. 167 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 2: But here's the interesting thing, freak out so bad rates 168 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 2: went down so much. We are data shows that in 169 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 2: February January, really but mostly in February. I haven't done 170 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 2: the March data yet, they finally ran out of money. 171 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 2: So that's where we are. I'm of the belief that 172 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 2: while it is taking a lot longer, and by the way, 173 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 2: I take no pleasure in this is people's jobs or livelihoods, 174 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 2: their businesses. I feel really bad for them right those 175 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 2: that are going out of business. But the fact of 176 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 2: the matter is we have to have get back to 177 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 2: equilibrium or close to it. And so I do think 178 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 2: that you are starting to see capacity leave now the 179 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 2: part of it. And you know, this league data around 180 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 2: this is so difficult, right. I mean, we look at 181 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 2: FMCSA's you know, data on whether it's the licensing insurance 182 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 2: data or whether it's the registration data, there's there, you know, listen, 183 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 2: and I will say, I don't want to I don't 184 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 2: want to dump on FMCSA. I think they're really starting 185 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 2: to try to clean that data up and there they've 186 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 2: got plans to do that and so forth. But the 187 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 2: fact of the matter is there's tons of duplicates in there, 188 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 2: There's there's all sorts of stuff. So I think that 189 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 2: data is really hard to work with. But if you 190 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 2: piece it all together, we went from a situation way 191 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 2: too much supply for all those reasons I mentioned too, 192 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:33,079 Speaker 2: I think we're going to start to see some improvement this. 193 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: Year, right, and just for the listeners out there, So, 194 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: most of the publicly traded trucking companies, they operate primarily 195 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 1: int and the contractual market, not you know, anywhere between 196 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: five to twenty percent or maybe even twenty five percent 197 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: in the spot market, depending on you know, how good 198 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: the spot market is. You know, most of the players 199 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 1: in the spot market are small owner operators that are 200 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: pretty much using an app to line freight. And whether 201 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:05,200 Speaker 1: that's or load board like a dat or a truck 202 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: stop or an uber freight app or even you know, 203 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: some of the larger trucking companies, like like JB Hunt, 204 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: they have their own platforms called a JB Hunt three sixty. 205 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: It's an app where people can where truckers can can 206 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: find freight. So the advent of technology has probably increased 207 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: the ease at which individuals can enter the truckload market. 208 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 1: So you know, you mentioned the fact that the spot 209 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: market there's too much capacity there. Higher cost operators are 210 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: leaving the market. Do you have any sense when we 211 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: are going to get to equally rhym because spot rates 212 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: have been bouncing around the bottom for a while, you know, 213 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: to be frank, you know, we thought things would be 214 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 1: a little better by now. You know, our crystal ball 215 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 1: is cracked and foggy, so I guess it's not working 216 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 1: very well today. Did you have any have any sense, 217 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: you know, given your work, and when you think things 218 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: are going to turn around. The spot market and and 219 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: therefore the contractual market spot market ten is a leading 220 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: indicator for the contractional market. 221 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,319 Speaker 2: Mainly listen, in order to get to that point, two 222 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 2: things have to happen, right. We have to have reduction 223 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 2: and supply, that's really the big one. But we also 224 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 2: need to see a little bit of improvement in demand. 225 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 2: And I think if you look at that, we're starting 226 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 2: to see, you know, isms improve We're starting to see 227 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 2: the consumer continues to hang in there, and I do 228 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 2: believe we're getting sort of now. Twenty twenty four is 229 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 2: going to be the normalization of freight again. I mean, 230 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: just really we haven't seen a normal freight market in 231 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 2: what four years, So if we can sort of get 232 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 2: back to that normal freight market, you know, I would 233 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 2: suspect this summer going into the fall is when you're 234 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: going to start to see things really improve if demand 235 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 2: picks up a little stronger than anticipated. Maybe a little 236 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 2: sooner than that, but you know, I think that's probably 237 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 2: when we can expect here in the next quarter, maybe 238 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 2: two quarters, things should start to normalize and really again. 239 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 2: And I keep saying to the trucking companies, don't expect 240 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 2: a boom, right, We're just talking about getting back to 241 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 2: normal where freight rates pick up a little bit because 242 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 2: they were so depressed. And of course we know what's 243 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 2: happened with costs. I mean, and as you follow all 244 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 2: the publicly traded folks, they've talked about that, and costs 245 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 2: are up significantly, yes, for the economy as a whole, 246 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 2: but certainly with trucking companies there's no doubt about that. 247 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 2: So that would be sort of my guest's best estimate 248 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 2: at this point when you look at all. 249 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: The data, right, and you know, it's it's interesting, you know, 250 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: the weakness in the spot market. It's definitely bleeding into 251 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: the contractual market. A couple of public companies have been 252 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: out recently with some uh you know, I guess more 253 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: data points on the bid season being a lot more competitive. 254 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: You know, a lot of these larger trucking companies, they're 255 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: I guess they're more or less the adults of the 256 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: room where they're a little more they have the wherewithal 257 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: and the financial flexibility to be a little more disciplined 258 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: when it comes with rates. So you're seeing them walking 259 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: away from business. That doesn't make sense. 260 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 2: You know. JB Hunt reporter earnings. 261 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: Last night that were twenty percent below expectations, and night 262 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: Swift just lowered their expectations for the first quarter for 263 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: eleven to twelve cents in EPs, which is down from 264 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: thirty seven to forty one cents and well below where 265 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: consensus is which is thirty cents. So you know, it's 266 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: it's very much a tough environment for the trucking industry 267 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: and the spot market really needs to turn again for 268 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: for better contractual market. And you mentioned earlier the ism, 269 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: you know, for the listeners out there, you know, we 270 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: look at the ISM because it's it's a really lead 271 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: leading indicator for the less than truckload market or the 272 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: LTL market, just because of the fact that it's really 273 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: tied to the industrial manufacturing economy, which is the dominant 274 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: freight that tends to go through most most lt L 275 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 1: UH networks. So, you know, you talked a little bit 276 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: about your your outlook, Bob, What's what's the I guess 277 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: the biggest risk to your outlook because it seems like 278 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: you're an economist by trade. I'm assuming you're in the 279 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: back the camp of a soft landing and no recession. 280 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: So is that the biggest risk to you know, your outlook? 281 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 2: Let me before I get to that, let me let 282 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 2: me can I can I say something about something you say? 283 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 2: I agree with everything you just said. I think you 284 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 2: know one thing that the the supply chain and shippers 285 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 2: need to be careful of is that they cut too 286 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 2: close to the bone. And you know it's not unprecedented, 287 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 2: right if you go back to their early two thousands, 288 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 2: we had an artificially high freight market like we did 289 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 2: this time in late nineteen nineties because of the Hit 290 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 2: two case scare, and then the bottom falls out and 291 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 2: shippers just boom boom down, down down, And I get it, 292 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 2: like you know, listen, I if it's the pendulum swings 293 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 2: to your favor, you're gonna do everything you can. But 294 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 2: we saw a very bad freight market, and then when 295 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 2: the two thousand and one recession hit, there were thousand 296 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 2: we had better data back then, by the way, on 297 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 2: a number of trucking failures and so forth, thousands of 298 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 2: trucking companies went out of business and it just swung 299 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 2: hard the other way. And I think that's, you know, 300 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 2: while it is not the same, there are some similarities 301 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 2: to that freight market that shippers need to be careful 302 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 2: of this time. And I think that's that's kind of interesting. 303 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 2: So the risk to the to the outlook right now, 304 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 2: I've got you know, we've been above normal GDP growth 305 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 2: and we're going to go to below normal. But I 306 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 2: will say, as a forecaster, I think the risk at 307 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 2: this moment is actually not to the downside. I think 308 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,399 Speaker 2: it's to the upside. I think that there is the 309 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 2: possibility that this economy is more resilient than many think. Now. 310 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 2: I mean, I just yesterday I got a really good 311 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 2: question via email from one of my members that said, 312 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 2: you know, has there ever been a trucking freight recession 313 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 2: when not a macro recession. And what I would tell everybody, 314 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 2: you know, I hear in lee. You probably hear this 315 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 2: all the time, right, Oh, trucking is a great indicator 316 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,199 Speaker 2: and a great leading indicator of the broader economy. And 317 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 2: I try to squell that. I keep telling everybody that 318 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 2: is not true. What is true is we are a 319 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 2: great sort of you know, a great reflection of the 320 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 2: goods economy. But the goods economy is what thirty percent 321 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 2: of the total economy. We're a service's economy. You don't 322 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 2: put services and trailers. So I think, what what can 323 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 2: happen here? Is so perhaps the economy is more resilient 324 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 2: than we think. But even if it's not, I still 325 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 2: been telling my members, if we can just get this 326 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 2: normalization back to okay, not buying a whole bunch of goods, 327 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 2: but buying the normal amount of goods versus a depressed 328 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,719 Speaker 2: level of goods throughout the economy, things can feel a 329 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 2: lot better in trucking. Not only not to mention you know, 330 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,360 Speaker 2: I do think there is some improvement going on in 331 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 2: terms of of inventory levels, especially at say, general merchandise stores. 332 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 2: Not all all inventories have been you know, normalized from 333 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 2: high levels. We went from very low levels in twenty 334 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 2: twenty and early twenty twenty one to bloated levels in 335 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three. But I do 336 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 2: think there's been some improvement there. So if you start 337 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 2: looking at sort of the areas at drive truck freight, 338 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 2: you know, I'm talking about consumption of goods, I'm talking 339 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 2: about inventory levels. I'm talking about construction activity and manufacturing activity. 340 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 2: You know, I think we're probably close to the bottom. 341 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,120 Speaker 2: And that's where I was saying earlier. You know, if 342 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:24,920 Speaker 2: we can just get a little bit of improvement out 343 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 2: of demand, that will also help make the truck freight 344 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 2: market feel better and perform better as we go further 345 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 2: into this year. Gotcha. 346 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 1: So you know when we talked about trucking that it 347 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,159 Speaker 1: encompasses a lot of different things. Are there different like 348 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: equipment types, whether it's drive in refrigerated flatbed or LTL 349 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: versus TL or expedited that are doing better than others 350 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: from your vantage point? 351 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, So let's start with the big ones here, and 352 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 2: I'm really talking about just so everybody knows, I'm talking 353 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 2: about four hire and really, as we talked about earlier. 354 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 2: My members, while they do a little bit of spot market, 355 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 2: they do I mean the vast majority. I mean they 356 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 2: do a little bit of spot market essentially for back 357 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 2: hauled can I can? I? 358 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: I just want to interject, So, just for the listeners 359 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: out there, trucking is either four hired or private fleet. 360 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 1: A private fleet would be like if you see a 361 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: Walmart truck driven by a Walmart employee, that's a private fleet. 362 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 1: Everything else is for hired. So these are companies that 363 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 1: people hire as the name it tells you to do 364 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: to take a load for them. So I just wanted 365 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: to clarify that for those that aren't too familiar with 366 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:39,360 Speaker 1: the trucking industry. 367 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,239 Speaker 2: So I apologize for the interruption, no problem. I use 368 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 2: a lot of jargon, so interrupt away. So so my members, 369 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 2: you know, do a little bit of spot market. But 370 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 2: I'm really talking now. What I'm about to talk about 371 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 2: is the contract freight market. Right, So let's talk about 372 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 2: truckload overall. And I like to look at the number 373 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 2: of loads out there, and in contract truck loads fell 374 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 2: you know, two and a half to three percent roughly 375 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:09,360 Speaker 2: last year early this year down closer to four percent 376 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 2: on the truckload side. But if we go to LTL, 377 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 2: woo much worse. Right, shipments down almost eight percent last year, 378 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:23,919 Speaker 2: tonnage down over ten percent last year, and even early 379 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 2: this year and the first you know, I don't have 380 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,640 Speaker 2: the March data yet, but down you know, roughly the 381 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,880 Speaker 2: same early this year year over year. And and why 382 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 2: did that happen? Right? One part of it is that 383 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 2: the LTL industry and acted more like the spot market 384 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. In early twenty 385 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 2: twenty two, because these shippers that couldn't get their contract 386 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 2: truckload heeers to haul the freight when during the boom 387 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,399 Speaker 2: time not only dumped a bunch of freight into the 388 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 2: spot market, but they all also went to ltls, even 389 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 2: though it costs a ton more money to do that, 390 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 2: to say I just desperately need this to get moved, 391 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 2: Please help me out. And they did it. But once 392 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 2: that extra freight and went away, and then beyond that, 393 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 2: once the freight market really started this offten, they weren't 394 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 2: going to do that anymore. The shippers were going, I'm 395 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 2: going back to those truckload carriers because I don't have 396 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 2: all that extra freight and so they got maybe benefited 397 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 2: a little bit. Ltls benefited a little bit on the upside, 398 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 2: but they've been hit harder than truckloads. So right off 399 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 2: the bat, truckload nobody's good, but truckload isn't as bad 400 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 2: ass LTL. And then within the truckload market, we can 401 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 2: look at different trailer types, as you said, different equipment types. 402 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 2: You know, irregular route truckload has been pretty soft last year, 403 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 2: falling you know, three percent, but a year to date 404 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 2: this year is down closer to seven percent, but even dedicated. 405 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 2: So so just so your your listeners know, you know 406 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 2: a lot of shippers will come to the four higher 407 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 2: truckload carriers and go, hey, listen, will you, you know, 408 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,679 Speaker 2: run x amount of trucks or you tell me how 409 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 2: many trucks it takes to it to move all this 410 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,640 Speaker 2: freight for me, And and they literally dedicate these these 411 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 2: trucks to them in the simplest way of thinking about 412 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 2: and sometimes they even co brand. So you know, think 413 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 2: about this. When you get moved to the airline industry, 414 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 2: it's easier to think about. You know, you might get 415 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 2: on a small regional jet and it says, I don't 416 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 2: know United Airlines, but it's really SkyWest operating that right, 417 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 2: and everything looks well. We have trucking companies that do 418 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 2: exactly that. You know, it might say, you know, I 419 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 2: don't know one example, it comes my Whole Foods, right, 420 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,919 Speaker 2: but it's really rule on transportation out of Des Moines 421 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 2: and so so think about this. So that's what we're 422 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 2: talking about. And dedicated. Dedicated was very strong during the 423 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,679 Speaker 2: during the pandemic because again they were there, shippers were 424 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 2: trying to ge move. But that's even falling now and 425 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 2: is down so far this year, down eight percent year 426 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 2: over year. Temperature controlled has been is down, not down 427 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 2: nearly as bad, we'll call it one to two percent. 428 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 2: Through last year. Flatbed funny enough, Housing starts was terrible, 429 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 2: but non residential construction think infrastructure and even some building 430 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,639 Speaker 2: of factories, whether that's semiconductors and so forth. So flatbed 431 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 2: was very bifurcated, right. The residential side was terrible, but 432 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 2: the non res was up and up a lot. But 433 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 2: year to date so far this year we're down about 434 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 2: two percent year over year, and tank truck is fairly flat. 435 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 2: That's a very diverse. I do a study for that 436 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 2: on the tank truck industry. Every year there's a lot 437 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 2: of different commodities being hauled in tank trucks, and so 438 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,120 Speaker 2: far this year that one's doing a little bit better 439 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 2: than most. So again, it's it's a huge economy, it's 440 00:25:55,880 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 2: a huge industry, and it is nothing operates the same. 441 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 2: But I think you're pretty consistently seeing recessions across most 442 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 2: sectors at this point, right And I. 443 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 1: Think it's interesting on the LTL market. You know, while 444 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 1: demand overall is down, the individual trucking companies that play 445 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: in that space aren't doing as poorly. Because Yellow, which 446 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: was one of the largest LTL carriers, went out of 447 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 1: business last July. And then you have further consolidation like 448 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: at night Swift that's trying to build a national network 449 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: through acquisitions, and that's keeping pricing extremely rational. And so 450 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: not only do they did did the industry win call 451 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,640 Speaker 1: it six to eight percent market share from when Yellow failed, 452 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 1: they're also able to keep pricing much better, so their 453 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 1: financials are not as dire as you when you look 454 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 1: at a truckload carriers financials. They have better margins. It's 455 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 1: been a little more resilient, But. 456 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 2: That's an excellent point Lee because again and just so 457 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 2: folks know, and the truckload side, you literally have one 458 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 2: hundreds over one hundred thousand carriers competing with each other, 459 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 2: and it's much either there's larger. You know. What I 460 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 2: always say is what the top twenty five largest truckload 461 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 2: carriers have a combined market share of less than ten 462 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 2: percent in the industry. That is not the case in 463 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 2: the in the LTL market, it's much more consolidated. 464 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,440 Speaker 1: Right, it's around seventy three, seventy four percent I. 465 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 2: Think for top ten or something like that. 466 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: So, you know, I want to talk about the Baltimore 467 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 1: Bridge collapse real quick because we don't really have that 468 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 1: much time. Have you seen any impact to trucking or 469 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: the broader economy or is this more of a kind 470 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 1: of a regional economic issue. 471 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,920 Speaker 2: Well, I think it's it's listen, had that happened when 472 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 2: freight was going crazy, that probably would have been a 473 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 2: bigger problem. We have seen it in terms of trucks 474 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 2: can go to the to you know, get around that. 475 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 2: It's not as easy, of course, just to clear out 476 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 2: that port. You know, Philly's getting some benefit from it, 477 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:11,199 Speaker 2: Norfolk's getting some benefit from it. So yeah, we are 478 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 2: seeing a little bit of an impact, and certainly those 479 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 2: drayage companies that only really operate in Baltimore. Oh boy, 480 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 2: that's tough, like that's a tough place to be. But 481 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 2: luckily we are seeing some re routing. They are moving 482 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 2: the bridge and so forth. So the sooner we can 483 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 2: get that port reopened, the better. 484 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: So, you know, trucking has a couple controversial topics. One 485 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 1: of them is driver availability or driver shortage. I'm in 486 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 1: the camp where, you know, I think that even though 487 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,560 Speaker 1: we have slack capacity, you know, given the turnover and trucking, 488 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 1: it's always a hard thing to staff. You know, where 489 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 1: do you sit when people talk about truck trucker drive 490 00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:01,959 Speaker 1: truck driver availability? Do you think there's structural issues that 491 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,959 Speaker 1: the industry are going to face once things improve on 492 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: a demand and supply basis. 493 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 2: Absolutely, I you know, and this is not I was 494 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 2: just in overseas. I was in I was in Geneva, Switzerland, 495 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 2: meeting with the International Road Transport Union, which is actually 496 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 2: more of a it's not a labor union, it's a 497 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 2: it's a it's more of an association and and and 498 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 2: meeting with folks from the International Labor organization, the UN 499 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 2: This this this driver issue is not unique to the 500 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 2: United States. It is you know, it is global, from 501 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 2: Europe to Asia, to South America and here in North America. 502 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 2: So this idea, I mean you think about and and 503 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 2: rightfully so that the the you know, we're very strict 504 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: on driving records, the ability to pass a drug test, 505 00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 2: all this sort of stuff, not to mention the li lifestyle, 506 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,040 Speaker 2: and and and while females make up what forty seven 507 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 2: forty eight percent of the workforce, are only eight percent 508 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 2: of the US truck driver workforce. By the way, that's 509 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 2: one of the best in the world, if not the 510 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 2: best in the world. So Europe's much lower. I think 511 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 2: Europe's like got four or five percent our female drivers 512 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 2: of their work driving workforce or females. So so but 513 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 2: but listen, it is it is at ebbs and flows. 514 00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 2: It goes up and down the driver availability, you know. 515 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 2: And I hear over and over from fleets. It's because 516 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 2: it's really equality. As you I hear over and over, 517 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 2: I get applications, I just cannot hire the vast majority 518 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 2: of them, even in today's market. So and we want that, 519 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 2: we want trucking companies to be select. We don't just 520 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 2: want anybody out there driving those trucks. So yes, I am, 521 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 2: as you can see, getting a little fired up because 522 00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 2: I just don't understand how some folks can can can 523 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 2: think that there's just not an issue structural issue with 524 00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 2: the labor market in the in the trucking space. And 525 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 2: I would encourage those people to go to trucking companies 526 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 2: and see this. But but anyways, it's not as bad 527 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:18,080 Speaker 2: right now, you know, full you know obviously, but to 528 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 2: your point ly, if things start to improve, and hopefully 529 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 2: they will, that I would expect that driver market to 530 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 2: tighten up. Yeah. 531 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 1: And it's it's interesting because like a turnover in the 532 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 1: truckloak market you know, can be well over one hundred percent. 533 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 1: So it has gotten better though, right it's gotten better. 534 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: But people get their CDL and you know, they don't 535 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: realize how taxing and demanding the job is. And then 536 00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: you know, three months in they're like, this isn't for me. 537 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 1: I'm going to go try to do something else. And 538 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 1: then you also have you know, experienced drivers. They might 539 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 1: be driving for a company for a couple of years 540 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 1: and then maybe they don't like the dispatcher what they 541 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:58,400 Speaker 1: did they can just go find a job down the 542 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 1: road at another trucking company, because you know, it's it's 543 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 1: pretty easy for you know, a well experienced trucker to 544 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: find find a new home. So you know, that kind 545 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 1: of contributes to that high turnover rate as well. 546 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 2: Absolutely, I caught the free Agency of trucking and in 547 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 2: twenty two thousand and five is the high for the industry. 548 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 2: Average in truck low was one hundred and thirty. Last 549 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 2: year it was I'm going off the top of my 550 00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 2: head here, high seventies. So it has gotten better. They 551 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 2: are spending a lot more effort on driver retention and 552 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 2: that'll say, and that saves money, but still relative to 553 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 2: most other industries, that's still pretty high. 554 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 1: Do you guys have stats on like the average age, 555 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 1: average pay for trucker. 556 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're actually collecting some data on that now or 557 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 2: doing a big driver compensation study and so forth. But 558 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 2: the average age is in you know, in much of 559 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 2: the industry is in the mid forties. And that's because 560 00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 2: so just so your listeners know, you know, you have 561 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 2: to be twenty one years old to haul interstate freight. 562 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 2: So what happens is somebody doesn't go to college or 563 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,479 Speaker 2: doesn't go to the military out of high school. They 564 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,640 Speaker 2: can't drive interstate freight so and cross state lines, so 565 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 2: they go off and they do something else. And so 566 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 2: if you go to a truck driver training school, which 567 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 2: I do, you know every year you go to that, 568 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,800 Speaker 2: the average age of a person getting trained is over thirty. 569 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 2: So then that increases the total average age. And in 570 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,360 Speaker 2: some sectors like LTL, you're well over fifty years old 571 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,719 Speaker 2: for the average age of truck drivers, which means we've 572 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 2: got a lot of retirements come in our way in 573 00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 2: the future. 574 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I went to an XBO trucking school, and I 575 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 1: would say the average age in that classroom was probably 576 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:43,880 Speaker 1: over forty. Somehow I talked them into letting me drive 577 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 1: a truck around the yard, and I didn't didn't do well. 578 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 1: I killed a lot of cones, traffic cones. It's very 579 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 1: tough to back up a two pup trailer. It was 580 00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 1: very hard. It's probably one of the hardest things that 581 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 1: I've ever tried to do anyway. So you know, so 582 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 1: some might say, well, you know, there's something called autonomous 583 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 1: trucking that's gonna that's gonna really help the driver issues 584 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:16,680 Speaker 1: long term Where does the ATA stand on autonomous trucking? 585 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 1: I saw the Kentucky governor, you know, vetoed a driverless 586 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 1: vehicle bill recently in that state. Where does the ATA 587 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:29,000 Speaker 1: stand on autonomous trucking? And how viable do you think 588 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:30,880 Speaker 1: it's going to be for the industry. 589 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 2: So where we stand is this is a it's it's real, 590 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,439 Speaker 2: it's coming. I think the hype got maybe a little 591 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:47,879 Speaker 2: ahead of itself. But what it is not okay anytime soon, right, 592 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:53,040 Speaker 2: is driver replace And we think it could be good 593 00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 2: for the drivers. We think it could be good for 594 00:34:55,640 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 2: safety if at some point here, you know, I I 595 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 2: get my my tractor onto the highway and attractor me 596 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 2: attracted trailer. I get my truck onto the highway and 597 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 2: I can push some sort of autopilot button. I'm still 598 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 2: sitting there. I'm observing. I'm getting ready to take over 599 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:21,839 Speaker 2: should the technology not perform as expected. But maybe that's 600 00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 2: a little easier on me as a driver. Now, maybe 601 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 2: that's good. I think that's good for safety. But but 602 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,440 Speaker 2: you know, listen, airplanes have been pretty autonomous for a while, 603 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 2: and even though the traffic up at thirty thousand feet 604 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 2: is well separated, you know, that they still you always 605 00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 2: still have two pilots sitting there. I can't imagine we 606 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,040 Speaker 2: want a scenario where you're going sixty two sixty three 607 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,440 Speaker 2: miles an hour down the highway with a lot of 608 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 2: traffic not separated by much, and you don't want somebody 609 00:35:55,160 --> 00:36:00,160 Speaker 2: sitting there, and at least for the time being, and 610 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 2: also then I think eventually down the road again we 611 00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 2: are not I'm not putting the technology. I think it's great. 612 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,719 Speaker 2: I just don't want people to worry that. Okay, now 613 00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 2: there's not gonna you know, we're gonna get rid of 614 00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,880 Speaker 2: all these drivers. I just don't see that happening. And 615 00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,799 Speaker 2: we don't. Again I deal with stuff globally. We don't 616 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,760 Speaker 2: see that globally happening. But one of the things you mentioned, 617 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:23,120 Speaker 2: you know, uh, sort of a veto of a bill, 618 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,839 Speaker 2: and I'm not going to get into that. But one 619 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,000 Speaker 2: thing we need so that we can properly test all 620 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,359 Speaker 2: this with drivers and so forth, is we can't have 621 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:36,520 Speaker 2: a patchwork of regulations state by state in the US. 622 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 2: We need a federal guidance on this on what does 623 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 2: autonomous vehicle technical you know, abilities or what you can 624 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 2: do with it, especially for a trucking industry. That's so interstate. 625 00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 2: We need a federal framework for this and uh and 626 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 2: I think that's important as we go into the future. 627 00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 1: Right, all right, So, so on on the regular aspect, 628 00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:06,800 Speaker 1: there's new EPA emission standards that are headed for twenty 629 00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 1: twenty seven. Can you talk about what that means for 630 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 1: the industry. 631 00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, So there's you know, a lot of things going 632 00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,400 Speaker 2: on in this space, whether it's California, whether that's the 633 00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 2: EPA stuff. And we have this new rule that is 634 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:27,280 Speaker 2: coming down that is going to require zero emission vehicles 635 00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 2: at the heavy duty market starting in really twenty well 636 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,759 Speaker 2: it depends on what you're looking at, but could be 637 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:42,080 Speaker 2: as early as as twenty seven, twenty eight. And I think, 638 00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 2: you know, listen, this this stuff is going to all happen. 639 00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,400 Speaker 2: It's how do we get there? And I think what 640 00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:57,400 Speaker 2: sometimes happens is regulators get fixated on a specific technology 641 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,080 Speaker 2: instead of saying to the industry, Okay, here's the target, 642 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,319 Speaker 2: now go achieve it, right, And that's really what they're doing, 643 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:09,480 Speaker 2: is they're pigeonholing manufacturers. For example, Lee, I think you 644 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:14,080 Speaker 2: could you would be surprised what is achievable in terms 645 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:19,359 Speaker 2: of emissions if we simply replace the pre twenty ten 646 00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,360 Speaker 2: modeled trucks right like over like roughly what I think 647 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,439 Speaker 2: the data I saw was roughly fifty percent of all 648 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:31,439 Speaker 2: trucks on the road are pre twenty eleven trucks, And 649 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 2: on a truck to truck basis, if you replaced one 650 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 2: of those older trucks with a new one, you can 651 00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,560 Speaker 2: reduce emissions by eighty percent on a truck to truck basis. 652 00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:45,600 Speaker 2: And one of the you know, difficulties of doing that is, 653 00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:47,880 Speaker 2: you know, a new truck today costs what one hundred 654 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,239 Speaker 2: and eighty thousand, Well, we have this twelve and a 655 00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:54,880 Speaker 2: half percent, this twelve and a half percent federal excise 656 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:58,239 Speaker 2: tax that goes all the way back to World War One. 657 00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,400 Speaker 2: And if you got rid of that, which is you 658 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,319 Speaker 2: know roughly what over twenty thousand at that rate twelve 659 00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,040 Speaker 2: and a half percent, it's over twenty thousand dollars. And 660 00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,279 Speaker 2: that's on after the dealer or the manufacturer says, okay, Lee, 661 00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,200 Speaker 2: here's how much this truck's going to cost you. And 662 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,440 Speaker 2: then after that you pay your sales tax and you 663 00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 2: pay this twelve and a half percent FT. So if 664 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 2: you got rid of that fet I think that would 665 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,880 Speaker 2: go a long way of saying, let's take the current 666 00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,719 Speaker 2: diesel trucks that are a lot better than the old ones, 667 00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,279 Speaker 2: and we could replace a lot of those. So one 668 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:34,000 Speaker 2: thing I don't like is pigeonholing of specific technology onto 669 00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 2: to the fleets. Now, we may still use have electric 670 00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,239 Speaker 2: vehicles and so forth, and that's great if that's what 671 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,319 Speaker 2: the manufacturers feel like they need to get there and 672 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,000 Speaker 2: so forth, and we could you know, I don't know. 673 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,080 Speaker 2: We can talk about a little bit morebout electric electric 674 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,520 Speaker 2: trucks if you want, But in terms of this this 675 00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:55,239 Speaker 2: federal this EPA Greenhouse Gas Emission Standard for heavy duty 676 00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 2: Vehicles Phase three that recently got picked, we think it's 677 00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,960 Speaker 2: going to be very very difficult, if not impossible, to 678 00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,600 Speaker 2: achieve some of these targets. And we would rather see 679 00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:05,919 Speaker 2: a little bit more flexibility. 680 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 1: Okay, I'll bite. Let's talk about electric trucks. You know, 681 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 1: I know that for most of your members it's probably 682 00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,359 Speaker 1: not a viable option right now. 683 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:19,360 Speaker 2: So is that true? Yeah? I mean I think listen, 684 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 2: I think the manufacturers are spending a lot of R 685 00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:25,360 Speaker 2: and D on this. I was just recently in in Europe, 686 00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,360 Speaker 2: and part of that trip I was I was talking 687 00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 2: to manufacturers and visiting them and their their plants around 688 00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 2: electric trucks. They're doing some pretty cool stuff, right, I mean, 689 00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:39,680 Speaker 2: I've seen the trucks get manufactured, I've seen the batteries 690 00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,839 Speaker 2: being put in and and so forth, and I think 691 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:48,000 Speaker 2: in that regard they're making a lot of progress. You know, 692 00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,440 Speaker 2: I've had a member recently tell me here in the 693 00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:56,080 Speaker 2: US tell me that he has a couple of trucks, 694 00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,720 Speaker 2: electric trucks that they're using, and the trucks are actually 695 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,080 Speaker 2: given to them by a manufacturer. I don't know what manufacturer, 696 00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,840 Speaker 2: but you know, any new car, vehicle, truck, whatever, the 697 00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,000 Speaker 2: early renditions of it can be plagued with some problems. 698 00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,880 Speaker 2: And I think that is happening. They'll improve that. I'm 699 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,279 Speaker 2: not worried about that in the long run. But it 700 00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:19,680 Speaker 2: was interesting that this fleet said, despite being me being 701 00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,359 Speaker 2: given the trucks, I can't make any money with them 702 00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,280 Speaker 2: because they take so long to charge up and so forth. 703 00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,840 Speaker 2: And that gets to my point. Manufacturers are going to 704 00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:33,120 Speaker 2: make a lot of progress in battery technology, in making 705 00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,120 Speaker 2: these trucks better. Heck, I had one manufacturer in Europe, 706 00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:39,720 Speaker 2: tell me this idea of cold weather killing the battery, 707 00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,400 Speaker 2: this no longer true. We figured that out. We know 708 00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,680 Speaker 2: how to warm the battery so that that doesn't happen. 709 00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,839 Speaker 2: And we've been testing them in your way up north 710 00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:51,360 Speaker 2: in Norway and we figured it out. That's all great. 711 00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:55,160 Speaker 2: What is going to be the biggest impediment to all 712 00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,960 Speaker 2: of this in Europe, but even much more so in 713 00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:04,080 Speaker 2: the US is infrastructure. I mean we in order to 714 00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,520 Speaker 2: get in order to make this electric charts viable in 715 00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,520 Speaker 2: the US, you have to have the mega chargers. I 716 00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,680 Speaker 2: think we have. I think don't quote me on this, 717 00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,560 Speaker 2: but I think I was told by our folks here 718 00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,160 Speaker 2: we have about three of them. Okay, we need hundreds, 719 00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,839 Speaker 2: if not thousands of them, right, because what that would 720 00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,200 Speaker 2: allow you to do is pull this truck in. Let's 721 00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,840 Speaker 2: say the driver takes his his or her thirty minute 722 00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,600 Speaker 2: rest break. You plug in and you can go from 723 00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,759 Speaker 2: twenty percent and with the mega chargers, okay, you can 724 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,080 Speaker 2: go from twenty percent charge to eighty percent charge in 725 00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,719 Speaker 2: thirty minutes. There you go, right, We're we are far 726 00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,040 Speaker 2: from there, and we had there was a recent study 727 00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:44,560 Speaker 2: that showed it's going to take upwards of a trillion 728 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:49,480 Speaker 2: dollars to make that investment. So my point here is 729 00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,320 Speaker 2: getting back to what we were talking about a little earlier. 730 00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:55,520 Speaker 2: Is okay, maybe longer term, Okay, not twenty seven, twenty 731 00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,840 Speaker 2: eight or even twenty twenty nine. Longer term, maybe this 732 00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,560 Speaker 2: all works and we have the time to make these 733 00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,560 Speaker 2: investments in infrastructure if that's where we need to go. 734 00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,080 Speaker 2: But if you want to really reduce carbon, there's ways 735 00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:13,040 Speaker 2: to do it now that don't involve BEVs, battery electric 736 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,719 Speaker 2: vehicles and so forth. And just give the industry a 737 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,400 Speaker 2: little bit of flexibility and to get there and instead 738 00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,440 Speaker 2: set the emission targets rather than a specific pigeonhole them 739 00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:23,839 Speaker 2: and a specific technology. 740 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:28,719 Speaker 1: So I got an important question. Do truckers still hunk 741 00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,120 Speaker 1: their horns using that string? Because you know, I have 742 00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,719 Speaker 1: had my kids do that outside the window and we 743 00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,600 Speaker 1: just don't get any responses. When I was a kid, 744 00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,319 Speaker 1: we used to get hunked out all the time. 745 00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember that. I you know, you know, that's 746 00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,080 Speaker 2: a good question. I get it. I jump in a 747 00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,080 Speaker 2: bunch of trucks. I don't think there must be a 748 00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,439 Speaker 2: button now. I don't think they've actually pulled the horse. 749 00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:50,279 Speaker 1: So have you, like you know, so you've been with 750 00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:52,960 Speaker 1: the ATA for I think he said twenty seven years. 751 00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,760 Speaker 1: So is there a book about trucking that you read, 752 00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:00,359 Speaker 1: whether it's fiction or nonfiction, that you know, really things 753 00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,400 Speaker 1: to home for you about the industry that you've been 754 00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:04,319 Speaker 1: a part of for so long. 755 00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:09,719 Speaker 2: That's a good question. I don't know the code of 756 00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:14,640 Speaker 2: federal regulations. I don't think anyone's gonna want to do that. 757 00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:20,600 Speaker 2: My gosh, No, I you know, probably you know, I 758 00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,160 Speaker 2: don't know, Lee, not not necessarily. I've been doing this 759 00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:26,359 Speaker 2: a long time. What I really love to do, though, 760 00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,479 Speaker 2: is you know, you know me, I travel a ton 761 00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:32,319 Speaker 2: and and you can read stuff, and I read data 762 00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,840 Speaker 2: and I get all sorts of data, and it's all important. 763 00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,560 Speaker 2: I love going out and visiting with the folks, seeing 764 00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:42,720 Speaker 2: their operations, talking to drivers. Heck, I've gone on runs 765 00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,799 Speaker 2: on you know, helped way back in the day, helped 766 00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,520 Speaker 2: unload trucks. To me, that's sort of my real life 767 00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,840 Speaker 2: Beige book. If you will, I get out there and 768 00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:53,640 Speaker 2: do that stuff, and I think it's really important. 769 00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,239 Speaker 1: All right, Great, I think we're gonna have to wrap 770 00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:57,640 Speaker 1: it up there, Bob, I could talk to you for 771 00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,480 Speaker 1: hours about this sort of stuff. I have like gazillion 772 00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,959 Speaker 1: questions I didn't have the time to ask. So maybe 773 00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,120 Speaker 1: you can come back on the podcast soon and we 774 00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:06,360 Speaker 1: can continue the conversation. 775 00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,000 Speaker 2: That sounds great, all right, Well, I want. 776 00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:10,960 Speaker 1: To thank everyone for tuning in. If you liked the episode, 777 00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,960 Speaker 1: please subscribe and leave a review. We've lined up a 778 00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,520 Speaker 1: great number of guests for the podcast. You can check 779 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:20,640 Speaker 1: back to hear conversations with C suite executives, shippers, regulators, 780 00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,600 Speaker 1: and decision makers within the freight markets. Also, if you 781 00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,680 Speaker 1: have an idea for a future episode, please hit me 782 00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,240 Speaker 1: up on the Bloomberg terminal or on Twitter at Logistics Lee. 783 00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:29,560 Speaker 2: Thanks. 784 00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,160 Speaker 1: Everyone'd be safe out there.