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Speaker 1: The volume. All right, Jason timp and I are just

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Speaker 1: about ready to talk about the Lakers. Before we start

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Speaker 1: with Jason, I want to grab your smartphone. Download the

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Speaker 1: is guaranteed. All right, welcome in. We're gonna have Chad

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Speaker 1: Millman Sharper Square you know him from the CCO Action Network.

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Speaker 1: All odds provided by DraftKings. So I spent Wednesday night,

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Speaker 1: flew in, flew back for the volume party and the

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Speaker 1: overriding theme. Now this is from just advertisers and friends,

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Speaker 1: media colleagues. A couple of players was that why don't

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Speaker 1: they hold all the Super Bowls in Las Vegas? For

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Speaker 1: years and years this was a big stigma. Remember years

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Speaker 1: ago Tony Romo wanted to do some fantasy football league

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Speaker 1: in the NFL wouldn't allow it. It was always ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Vegas has legalized gambling, but told the NBA warned them

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Speaker 1: about Tim donaghy. They don't want a stigma around gambling.

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Speaker 1: It's the it's the gambling sports gambling mecca of the

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Speaker 1: United States. So there's been a lot of gambling controversies.

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Speaker 1: Very few have been in Las Vegas. They're on the

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Speaker 1: alert for scammers. So finally they put hockey in there.

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Speaker 1: And now football it's all crushing and there's no problem

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Speaker 1: with the Raiders. Players make so much money. Now I

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Speaker 1: worry more about collegiate players and that stuff, and officials

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Speaker 1: and that stuff, and even you know, that's why I

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Speaker 1: always felt the NFL should, you know, make officials full

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Speaker 1: time employees, because it holds them to a higher level

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Speaker 1: of accountability. Not that they don't feel accountable, but you know,

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Speaker 1: it's the difference between being in a company and being

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Speaker 1: a consultant. There's a different responsibility, a different level, and

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Speaker 1: I think you always have to have your eye out

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Speaker 1: for stuff. We saw the college football player at LSU.

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Speaker 1: College kids, they're trying to make ends, meet their stars

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Speaker 1: in college pre nil, I always felt there was probably

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Speaker 1: a player too on every roster that was taking a

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Speaker 1: more than a ham sandwich in a twenty. But you

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Speaker 1: just don't know, and so you can't speculate in individual

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Speaker 1: players or teams. But I think Vegas and Miami are perfect.

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Speaker 1: Phoenix nothing against it, but you've got Scottsdale over there,

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Speaker 1: Glendale over there, Downtown Phoenix. They cut it into threes.

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Speaker 1: Miami's got perfect weather. New Orleans is fine. Although New Orleans.

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Speaker 1: To spend a week in New Orleans, you kind of

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Speaker 1: run out of things to do besides drink and eat.

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Speaker 1: And I think Las Vegas, I mean, you can golf,

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Speaker 1: The golf is stunning, you can gamble, you can shop.

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Speaker 1: I mean if you wanted to a couple of days

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Speaker 1: go to Los Angeles, It's a forty minute flight. So

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Speaker 1: I think Vegas is a perfect spot. I think the

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Speaker 1: stigma would legalized gambling was always silly. I mean, there

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Speaker 1: are those of us that I've been talking about gambling

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Speaker 1: on the air my entire career. There's no stigma. Every

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Speaker 1: guy I know gambles. I gamble everybody I know, and

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Speaker 1: I gamble responsibly. I think ninety nine percent of people

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Speaker 1: do Do people eat responsibly? Do they always drink responsibly?

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Speaker 1: Do they always drive responsibly? There's always going to be

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Speaker 1: people that are irresponsible, But I think Vegas works, and

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Speaker 1: especially having a covered stadium. You know, Dallas can get

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Speaker 1: really cold in the winter, and Miami does not rain,

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Speaker 1: but it doesn't get terribly cold. So if you know

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Speaker 1: this idea that you have to mix it up around

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Speaker 1: the country, no, you don't. We hold Marty Gron one place.

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Speaker 1: You know, Rock and Eve in one place. A lot

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Speaker 1: of Hollywood Awards are in one place. You have to

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Speaker 1: move everything. You don't have to. Super Bowl would be

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Speaker 1: two three places. I'd be totally okay with it. And

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Speaker 1: I just think from the people I talked to I

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Speaker 1: talked to about four former players, about three current players,

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Speaker 1: members of the media, advertisers, and everybody said, this is

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Speaker 1: the hotel capital of North America. There's great restaurants everywhere.

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Speaker 1: There's multiple things to do. I remember going to a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl in Jacksonville where they literally had one hotel.

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Speaker 1: They had to bring in cruise ships and they ended

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Speaker 1: up with Super Bowl. I never bought into this. Well,

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Speaker 1: you got to share the super Bowl. I don't want

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Speaker 1: it in Kansas City. It's too cold in February. Let's

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Speaker 1: put the best players in the world under a dome

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Speaker 1: in cold weather or in warm weather. Don't let the

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Speaker 1: weather dictate the outcome. The weather bad weather, Ows's always

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Speaker 1: punishes the greater quarterbacks, you know. I mean it's like you,

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Speaker 1: you don't want to reduce the effectiveness of Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: or Tom Brady in their prime. It's December. Games happen,

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Speaker 1: but if you can avoid it with a neutral field game,

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Speaker 1: you don't schedule potential blizzards. Let's bring in Chad Millman's

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Speaker 1: CEO Action Network, all as provided by DraftKings. I actually

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Speaker 1: think this is an intriguing Super Bowl. So the Niners

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Speaker 1: last time here were a stacked defensive roster limitations offensively, now,

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Speaker 1: they're historically gifted a top five running back ever, CMC,

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Speaker 1: top left tackle five ever, a top ten tight end ever.

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Speaker 1: De bow is one of the top multi usage players

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Speaker 1: I can ever remember. I mean, they win seventy percent

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Speaker 1: of the games with him, forty seven percent without him.

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Speaker 1: And then you have Brandon Ayuk, who has really surged

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Speaker 1: this year to become an elite top seven to eight

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Speaker 1: wide receiver. In fact, the weakness you would say is, well,

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Speaker 1: the quarterback doesn't throw a great deep ball. Quarterback's not

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Speaker 1: great if the weather's bad. But I think Kansas City's

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Speaker 1: defense really great defenses. We think of them Ray Lewis.

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Speaker 1: We can name the players you know, Bosa Butck Kiss

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Speaker 1: or Richard Dent. You can name great players from great defenses.

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Speaker 1: Right Kansas City, You're like, well, I like Chris Jones,

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Speaker 1: best corners in the league, incredibly active wide receivers, multiple paths.

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Speaker 1: They had nine more sacks than the Niners, twenty six

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Speaker 1: more pressures. I think this is an all time classic

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Speaker 1: gifted offense and one of the most undervalued defenses I

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Speaker 1: can ever remember. So I like the under forty seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. I think there's gonna be yards and

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Speaker 1: explosion plays, but not a lot of touchdowns. What do

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Speaker 1: you think.

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Speaker 2: I think you've hit on all of the things that

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Speaker 2: make this such an interesting game to analyze for betters.

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Speaker 2: Take this game, put it in week five, Make the

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Speaker 2: Niners two point favorites.

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Speaker 3: No one. No one's betting and being like, yeah, it

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Speaker 3: seems about right. I don't really see an edge.

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Speaker 2: But because it's the Super Bowl, people feel like they

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Speaker 2: need to figure out what side they want to be on,

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Speaker 2: and they are ignoring the total. I will tell you

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Speaker 2: right now. Professional betters have been coming in on the

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Speaker 2: under in this game for ten days at this point,

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Speaker 2: and it's really interesting. The over up until about forty

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Speaker 2: eight hours ago was getting fifty seven, fifty eight to

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Speaker 2: fifty nine percent of the tickets, meaning that's what the

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Speaker 2: squares the public are doing, and the under was getting

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Speaker 2: about sixty percent of the money. That's professional betters. In

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Speaker 2: the last forty eight hours, the under is now also

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Speaker 2: getting the majority of the tickets, and the under is

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Speaker 2: getting the majority of the money. So I do think

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Speaker 2: you'll see this number go down a little bit. I

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Speaker 2: bet the under I will probably end up being heavier

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Speaker 2: on the under than I will on the side.

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Speaker 1: I like Kansas City plus two, the Mahomes factor and

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Speaker 1: Andy Reid with extra time. But I do think think

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Speaker 1: there's something that's fairly obvious is that in five of

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Speaker 1: eight quarters in the playoffs, and I judge that against

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Speaker 1: average defenses Detroit Green Bay at home, Rock Purty was

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Speaker 1: incredibly pedestrian. Mahomes at Buffalo at Baltimore minus twenty seven

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Speaker 1: degrees didn't have a bad quarter. I can't wrap my

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Speaker 1: brain around Brock pretty struggling against significantly less talented defenses

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Speaker 1: at home. He'll be nervous. Kyle Shanahan may be tight.

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Speaker 1: Given the history this defense is they allowed seventeen points

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Speaker 1: a game in a league that has pivoted in a

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Speaker 1: conference with all the best quarterbacks in the league that's

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Speaker 1: pivoted offense. And if you go look at who the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs faced, it was a it was GoF, it was

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, it was Jalen Hurts, it was Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: regular and post. They never allowed over thirty points, did

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Speaker 1: three times, and they mostly faced Sam Howells, Gino, Drew Lock.

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Speaker 1: Like I think the gap in defense, you just know

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Speaker 1: some of the Niner players. I don't think it's a

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Speaker 1: great defense, do you no?

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Speaker 2: And I think you're hitting the nail on the head.

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Speaker 2: And why I like the Chiefs at plus two. I

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Speaker 2: actually bet them at plus two and a half. And

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Speaker 2: this opened ten days ago. This Chiefs defense, you just

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Speaker 2: mentioned some things they did during the regular season, second

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Speaker 2: lowest scoring defense in the NFL, just behind by fractions

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Speaker 2: of a point the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs against

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Speaker 2: three of the most vaunted, high powered offensives through the

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Speaker 2: entire season to un road the Bills, the Ravens allowed

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Speaker 2: an average of four points per game in the second half.

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Speaker 2: And I think the real incredible. It's incredible, and I

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Speaker 2: think the real key to this game. And it's also

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Speaker 2: why people like the under Andy Reid this season has

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Speaker 2: played more conservative lead in the second half. He is

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Speaker 2: not because not on purpose, but the offensive game plan

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Speaker 2: has been slower. I believe they both want to go slow.

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Speaker 2: I believe both of these teams believe in their kickers.

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Speaker 2: At least the Chiefs really do. Kyle Shannon is not

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Speaker 2: the kind of guy to go forward and fourth down.

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Speaker 2: You are less likely to do it when you're facing

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes when you believe in your defense, like I

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Speaker 2: think the Niners do. I think the key to this

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Speaker 2: game really is going to be how the defensive coordinators

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Speaker 2: adjust in the second half and if the Chiefs get

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Speaker 2: out to a lead, how is that going to spook

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Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan. How is that going to spook Rock Purty.

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Speaker 2: We've seen it all offseason. The best quarterbacks in the

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Speaker 2: game make bad decisions when they fall behind. Against Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: he is a complete model wrecker. You cannot account for

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Speaker 2: that in any of the handicapping, And a lot of

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Speaker 2: the conversations this week about handicapping this game have been

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Speaker 2: about how do you account for recency bias with what

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs have been doing? And how do you account

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Speaker 2: for what the Niners have done all season long? And

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Speaker 2: I think that you have to consider is recency bias

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Speaker 2: something that is a better indication of how the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: have gotten better, how Andy Reid has changed his game

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Speaker 2: plan and to bringing full circle, how Steve Spagnola has

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Speaker 2: made adjustments in the second half of every game this season,

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Speaker 2: but especially in the last six weeks of this season.

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Speaker 2: I think that'll be the key. We've seen it in

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Speaker 2: every playoff game this year. And by the way, we

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Speaker 2: didn't see Steve Wilkes do that. The Lions lost that

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Speaker 2: game because the Lions made bad plays, not because the

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Speaker 2: Niners all of a sudden. We're playing so much better defensively,

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Speaker 2: and I think you've got a zone heavy scheme on

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Speaker 2: defense against Patrick Mahomes, whose receivers don't have very big

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Speaker 2: average depths of target. You're sending yours thought to get

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Speaker 2: sort of dink and dined until the Chiefs are scoring,

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Speaker 2: and then you're.

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Speaker 1: Bout Mahomes, and Mahomes has become more comfortable with that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this season it's exactly you know. I would say Andy

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Speaker 1: Reid and Steve Spagnola are the best coaching due in

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Speaker 1: the league. I do think Demiko Ryans and Bobby Slow

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Speaker 1: for Houston are the best young coaching combination in the league.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think Steve Wilkes. I think he's been

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Speaker 1: a downgrade from Demiko Ryans. They're not as good as

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Speaker 1: in the red zone. They're pass rush, they don't generate

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Speaker 1: the pass rush outside of Bosa. So I think what

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Speaker 1: we're looking at is and I think you hit on something.

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Speaker 1: There's two whammys that work in Kansas City's favorite. Mahomes

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Speaker 1: screws with everybody's head. You tend to call a more

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Speaker 1: aggressive game because of Mahomes. Nobody's calling wacky plays because

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Speaker 1: it brought pretty maybe the opposite. Secondly, Kyle's lost games

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Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl he had won. Does Andy Reid

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Speaker 1: get into his head? Does it get into his head?

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Speaker 1: I asked Drew Brees that today. I said, you know,

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Speaker 1: you go to the Super Bowl. You didn't have this litany.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Niners have been great for thirty years.

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Speaker 1: Mostly they haven't won since ninety four. This team has

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Speaker 1: been great for six years. Right, that shit gets tight, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: I can say whatever you want. This is going to

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Speaker 1: be a loose Kansas City team with the best head

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Speaker 1: coach and DC duo in the league, playing with confidence,

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Speaker 1: an underdog. I think if it's close laid, I think

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Speaker 1: all the intangibles go to Kansas City.

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Speaker 2: I've got a cowherd take on this. Patrick Mahomes isn't

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Speaker 2: playing just to win this title. He's playing for legacy.

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Speaker 2: And Patrick Mahomes is such a gifted player. We're talking

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Speaker 2: about people who we're talking about a guy who is

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Speaker 2: at the top of his craft potentially beyond Tom Brady,

247
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Speaker 2: and the path he will be on if he wins

248
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Speaker 2: this game is far beyond the accomplishments of just one season.

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Speaker 2: And I think he's a game wrecker, as we said,

250
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Speaker 2: because he can think beyond that and he will not

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Speaker 2: shrink in the moment. And I think to your point

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Speaker 2: about Shanahan, to your point about brock Party, and I

253
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Speaker 2: don't think this is necessarily specific to them, but in

254
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Speaker 2: this case it will be. Then Mahomes makes you do

255
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Speaker 2: things you wouldn't normally do. And if you've got the

256
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Speaker 2: monkey on your back because you haven't been able to

257
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Speaker 2: close the deal in the Super Bowl and you're going

258
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Speaker 2: against Patrick Mahomes, Let's remember Patrick Mahomes lost the Super

259
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Speaker 2: Bowl against the Bucks because he had no healthy offensive

260
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Speaker 2: pack line none. Like all of these things, you get

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Speaker 2: clarity looking back in history. So I do think that

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Speaker 2: the context of Mahomes playing for legacy and being driven

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Speaker 2: enough to know that's what he's playing for beyond this season,

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Speaker 2: I think that's an X factor.

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Speaker 1: So one of the pri don't do a ton of props,

266
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Speaker 1: but brock Purty over under two hundred and forty seven

267
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Speaker 1: passing yards, so Brandon Ayuku is sensational, but you're talking

268
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Speaker 1: about Sneed's an elite corner that when he guards you.

269
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Speaker 1: The quarterback has sixty five passer rating in a fifty

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Speaker 1: two percent completion rate. You can put Snead McDuffie's also excellent.

271
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Speaker 1: So I don't think they'll beat the Chiefs over the top.

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Speaker 1: They could dink and dunk, but I'm Kyle Shanahan. There's

273
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Speaker 1: a fairly obvious way to map this game out. I

274
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Speaker 1: want to see mahomes as little as possible, a lot

275
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Speaker 1: of Debo, a lot of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo in

276
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Speaker 1: some running sets, which we know we can do, but

277
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Speaker 1: it felt like he did more of that pre content

278
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Speaker 1: pre contract than both. I don't have the data to

279
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Speaker 1: support that. But the way to win this game for

280
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Speaker 1: them is I'm not putting it on brock pretty shoulders

281
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Speaker 1: and we're not going to get cheap yards over the top.

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Speaker 1: This is a Deebo Christian McCaffrey game. Secondly, is that

283
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Speaker 1: San Francisco and I can't figure it out because nobody's

284
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Speaker 1: tied to their play sheet, and more than Kyle Shanahan,

285
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Speaker 1: they've not been a great first quarter team in the

286
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:03,240
Speaker 1: playoffs out played him. Detroit out played him. So it's like,

287
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 1: you're not going to get major yards early. They're gonna

288
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Speaker 1: be fairly cautious, I would think with Brock pretty early

289
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Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl right like, they're not going explosion plays.

290
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,040
Speaker 1: You're not going to get cheap crap over the top

291
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Speaker 1: because the Chiefs pass rush is excellent and their corners are,

292
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Speaker 1: in my opinion, the best young corners in the game.

293
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Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised to forty seven's a lot of yards

294
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,120
Speaker 1: when you have Christian McCaffrey. That's all against the Chiefs defense.

295
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 1: Baltimore was reluctant to run. They could have. You know,

296
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,960
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards first run was fifteen yards, his second carry

297
00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 1: was in the second half. They could have run, So

298
00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,760
Speaker 1: that number to me seems high.

299
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 2: Well, look, Colin, I had Gus Edwards over forty and

300
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards, and when he ran, so did

301
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,760
Speaker 2: I for fifteen yards on that first play. I'm like,

302
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 2: I'm golden, Like I'm watching in the action app and

303
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,240
Speaker 2: I see like his percentage chance of covering that was

304
00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,080
Speaker 2: like eighty percent, and then it was seventy, and then

305
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 2: it was sixty and then it was fifty and all

306
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,720
Speaker 2: of a sudden, he ran one more time the entire game.

307
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 2: And that, by the way, is indicative of how coaches

308
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,720
Speaker 2: and players change their game plan and change their style

309
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 2: when you're playing Patrick Mahomes, I think the Niners. I'm

310
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,639
Speaker 2: not trying to avoid your question. I don't have a

311
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 2: strong opinion on Perdy. I would probably lean to the under.

312
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 2: I think it's lined about right. I don't see a

313
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,639
Speaker 2: huge edge in Brock Purdy in his passing yardage. I

314
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:33,720
Speaker 2: think I do see Deebo Samuel over his receiving yardage

315
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 2: as a bonus because I think he's going to line

316
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 2: up in the slot. And I think that's a little

317
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:39,840
Speaker 2: bit of an advantage because you're not having to go

318
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 2: against really good corners against the Chiefs, and you're going

319
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 2: against smaller linebackers, and so if they are going to

320
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 2: find some success, that could be where it is.

321
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Speaker 3: And I also agree with you.

322
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Speaker 2: Look, if the Niners are winning this game, they're doing

323
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 2: it on the ground, thrashing a mediocre Chief's Brolin defense.

324
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 2: I won't say terrible Chiefs run defense, it's mediocre. It's

325
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:06,119
Speaker 2: a mediocre defense. So I think the advantage here is

326
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 2: to run McCaffrey and run Deebo Samuel. Do what I say,

327
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 2: you're betting over the McCaffrey yardage. I don't think so,

328
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 2: because I do think that the Chiefs know they'd almost

329
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,919
Speaker 2: rather put the ball in brock Perty's hands than let

330
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,440
Speaker 2: McCaffrey beat him, because he is so talented. So those

331
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 2: are a couple of tricky props I think to bet.

332
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 2: I will tell you one bet that I love that

333
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:30,920
Speaker 2: I think is underpriced right now.

334
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,240
Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey. First rush over.

335
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,880
Speaker 2: Three and a half yards happens sixty to sixty five

336
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 2: percent at the time, and then the circumstances, and then

337
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 2: the percentage increases with circumstances like we are looking at

338
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 2: this week with the defense that isn't quite as good

339
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,760
Speaker 2: as what the Niners were always facing. So if you're

340
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,159
Speaker 2: looking for sort of a sneaky fun prop, that'll be

341
00:18:55,240 --> 00:19:00,719
Speaker 2: over quickly. They're right away if you're gonna in that one.

342
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:01,679
Speaker 2: But that's one that I like.

343
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm going to defend the Chiefs run

344
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:09,159
Speaker 1: defense a little, not overwhelmingly, but you don't play catch

345
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 1: up with the Chiefs like you used to, So people

346
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 1: simply run more against Kansas City. In previous years, the

347
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:19,640
Speaker 1: Chiefs defense was viewed who they don't allow many rushing yards. Cauz,

348
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:24,359
Speaker 1: you're aus trailing. This Chief team has been trailing, so

349
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,160
Speaker 1: people aren't getting into shootouts. And when you don't get

350
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:30,959
Speaker 1: into shootouts with Mahomes, you find comfort in running and

351
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 1: eating the clock because Mahomes is in your head. So

352
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 1: people are much more willing to run against Kansas City.

353
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,239
Speaker 1: I don't think their run defense is bad. They're too

354
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 1: athletic a linebacker for it to be bad. They really

355
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: have good, twitchy linebackers. Yeah, but this defense has the

356
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: best corners, an excellent pass rush, so people attack the

357
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,640
Speaker 1: run game more, and I think, again, I don't think

358
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 1: it's a great run defense. It's not Baltimore, but I

359
00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:01,640
Speaker 1: think it's a little overc gust how poor it is

360
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,640
Speaker 1: based on if you knew you didn't have to get

361
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 1: into a shootout with Mahomes, you'd want to run the

362
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 1: damn clock, so we'd get two less possessions. So people

363
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 1: go into a week and say we're going to commit

364
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,680
Speaker 1: to the run. Well, if you commit to the run,

365
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:17,160
Speaker 1: you run the ball more, and you run the ball

366
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,880
Speaker 1: with more success. So I think people have gone into

367
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 1: games with Kansas City thinking, hey, we got to be

368
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 1: good situationally in the red zone because when we get chances,

369
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 1: we got to score touchdown not field goals. That was forever,

370
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 1: that's been the mantra with Kansas City. You got to

371
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 1: get touchdowns, not field goals. Teams go for it and

372
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: fourth down you don't really have to with this team.

373
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 1: I bring the ball. So I think the defense for

374
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,120
Speaker 1: Kansas City is excellent against the pass. I think it's

375
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 1: okay against the run.

376
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 2: Good enough, good right, And I think that to bring

377
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 2: a full circle, that plays into why we like the

378
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 2: under and the game script that we're expecting is going

379
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 2: to be that both teams play some kind of ball

380
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,880
Speaker 2: control offense, which is really what they've been doing all year.

381
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 3: Right.

382
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:05,639
Speaker 2: These have not been explosive from a Niners perspective, not

383
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 2: I mean a Chiefs perspective, not an explosive offense, and

384
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: the Niners, while they can be explosive, are more than

385
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 2: likely recognizing that their ability to win this game is

386
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 2: going to be dependent on their ability to run the ball.

387
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 2: So as long as they can be committed to that,

388
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 2: I like our chances on the under. Do I think

389
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 2: do I think either side is a lock?

390
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 3: Not really.

391
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,880
Speaker 2: I will say one thing you want to consider when

392
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,439
Speaker 2: teams win the Super Bowl, they tend to win by

393
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 2: a field goal or more so, if you really like

394
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. Another fun alternative bet to make Chiefs minus

395
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 2: two and a half at plus one thirty one thirty

396
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: five because you're getting better odds, and if you think

397
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 2: it's going to be a close game and the Chiefs

398
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: are going to win, might have will take the Chiefs

399
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 2: that minus two and a half, which is the limit

400
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 2: of where you want to be. I'm sort of taking

401
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: an at line here and getting a little bit of

402
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 2: extra juice.

403
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 1: Chad Milman been great. My three teamer is Chiefs plus

404
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: two under and Brock under two hundred and forty seven

405
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,719
Speaker 1: passing yards. Give me a three teamer very quickly.

406
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 2: I will take Chiefs plus two. I will take the under,

407
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 2: and I will take Deebo Samuel over fifty eight and

408
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 2: a half receiving yards.

409
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 1: I think you're right on that. You know, the air

410
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: thing with him, bubble screens, he gets cheap yards. He

411
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,880
Speaker 1: gets those, he turns four into nine like three times

412
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 1: a game. You get a lot of cheap stuff.

413
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 3: Ri Trent Williams out in front of him, best a

414
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 3: lineman in football.

415
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: Come on, nothing cheap about that living room boy.

416
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 3: That is dude, I am in a listen. You'll appreciate this.

417
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 2: And we didn't, you know, we saw each other last

418
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 2: night at the Amazing Volume party that thing dude three

419
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 2: years ago, four years ago in La I was like,

420
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 2: you know, one hundred and fifty people in a backyard

421
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 2: by the pool last night. I don't even know how

422
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,119
Speaker 2: many people were at this place last night, but it

423
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: was massive and full of star power. And I was

424
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 2: like telling somebody that you know and you can appreciate this.

425
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 2: I first started coming out to Vegas to write my

426
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 2: book The Odds, about these guys who've been on sports

427
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 2: for a living.

428
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, interplay between bookmakers and betters.

429
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, twenty five years ago, right, and you know, some

430
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: of the guys that I was profiling, like Boston Red

431
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 2: and the guys at the Stardust were the book makers

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00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 2: that I profiled. One of the guys that I profiled

433
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 2: is now the CEO at the Mirage Hotel.

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Speaker 3: So I came in. It's Joe loopo Oh, I know

435
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 3: the name.

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00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And so Joe Lupo is now the CEO

437
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 2: at the Mirage Hotel, and so I came into town,

438
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 2: and like he sets me up in a room that

439
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 2: is so freaking big. I've got a bathroom on one

440
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: side of the room and an equally large bathroom on

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00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 2: the other side of the room. And I've got a

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00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: grand marble foyer. I've got a sweep that is so

443
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: high roller. When I go to check in, the question

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00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: is what kind of line of credit would you like?

445
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 2: It's not like, do you need a line of credit,

446
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 2: It's automatically assumed I need a line of credit. When

447
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 2: I walked in, I was sitting there checking in. A

448
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 2: guy walked in behind me. He's on his phone saying

449
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 2: to a guy I don't know who he's talking to her.

450
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 2: He's like, listen, I'm gonna need another one hundred grand

451
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 2: on the line of credit. I'm already down one hundred grand.

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00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 2: I haven't even checked in. It'll be fine, don't worry

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00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 2: about it. I started with two fifty. Let's put another

454
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 2: one hundred grand in there breaks out a way of cash,

455
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 2: Like it's a different game here, just a different game.

456
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 3: But no, it's like, but you.

457
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: Were here, you started your career here, like the fact

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00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 2: that the Super Bowl is here, that there's professional hockey here,

459
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 2: that they're talking about baseball here, even though sports betting

460
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: is not as big a thing here if you look

461
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 2: at the numbers, that is like kind of irrelevant as

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00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:57,719
Speaker 2: a sports betting market.

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00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 3: It's annoying, but it's a major league sportstown.

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00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 2: Now.

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00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll give you a ninety second sports story. I

466
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 1: arrive in Las Vegas. I drive in. I drive in,

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00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,959
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna meet my boss out of college at

468
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: the circus Circus. I get there about an hour early,

469
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: drive in, driving as fast as I can at my

470
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 1: AMC pacer. I arrive and my mom's checking on me,

471
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: like every six hours. How am I doing. I get

472
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 1: to the circus circus. I put a quarter in a slot.

473
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: I went seventy five dollars first pull. I went to

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00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 1: a phone. I called my mom. I said, Mom, love

475
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: this town. Don't send money and at I never ever

476
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: in seven years pulled another handle at one. Yeah, my

477
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 1: first pull, seventy five bucks, never one again ever.

478
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: No, it's so funny. I checked when I was checking

479
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 3: in yesterday.

480
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 2: I was in this room, like this super VIP room

481
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 2: where you go to check in, and they needed like

482
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes to finish cleaning up my massive suite, and

483
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 2: so I had a little bit of work to do.

484
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 2: I pulled on my computer and I was responding to

485
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 2: a slack from the CFO of our company, and I'm like,

486
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 2: all right, let me just do this and I'll finish

487
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 2: this in ten minutes. And he goes, what are you doing.

488
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 2: I'm like, well, my room's not ready yet. He goes,

489
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 2: your room's not ready and you're responding to me instead

490
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 2: of going to gamble right now. I'm like, guy, I

491
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 2: got to pace myself. I'm not losing all my money

492
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 2: in the first fifteen minutes I'm here. I want to

493
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 2: leave up. I'm going to be very disciplined about this.

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00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 2: You don't get rich taking money out of your pockets. Colin,

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Speaker 2: That's what I say.

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Speaker 1: Chad Melman, CCO Action Network. I got to go pick

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Speaker 1: up my wife at the airport, my beautiful wife.

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Speaker 3: You're talking about it. So yeah, the volume.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,

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00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: take a moment rate and review