Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
Speaker 1: here with Bau mcbrair. Are you ready for two weeks
Speaker 1: of golf tournaments in the United Kingdom because we have
Speaker 1: the Scottish Open this week, the British Open next week,
Speaker 1: and today we'll preview the Scottish Open. We'll also recap
Speaker 1: the John Deere Classic, and at the end of the
Speaker 1: show we'll give you our one and done picks for
Speaker 1: the week. The Betting pros PGA Podcast is sponsored by
Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy. Underdog is the place to go for fantasy
Speaker 1: football bestball contests, but you might not have known that
Speaker 1: Underdog has golf contest too. Visit Underdog Fantasy dot com
Speaker 1: or find Underdog in the app store, and don't forget
Speaker 1: to register with the promo code BP Golf to claim
Speaker 1: your special pick and to get a first time deposit
Speaker 1: offer of up to two hundred and fifty dollars in
Speaker 1: bonus cash. More on Underdog and It's golf contest. A
Speaker 1: little later, Davis Thompson wins the John Deere Classic bow
Speaker 1: and he does it without a lot of drama. The
Speaker 1: twenty five year old Thompson scorched TP deer Ron for
Speaker 1: four days, finishing twenty eight under par. Thompson had rounds
Speaker 1: of sixty three, sixty seven, sixty two and sixty four.
Speaker 1: He wound up winning by a comfortable four shot margin.
Speaker 1: Bow and I had talked about Thompson last week as
Speaker 1: an intriguing betting option. He'd finished top twenty in four
Speaker 1: of his previous six starts and was coming off a
Speaker 1: tie for second at the Rock and Mortgage Classic. Thompson
Speaker 1: had also tied for second at the Myrtle Beach Classic
Speaker 1: in May, so he'd shown that he could be a
Speaker 1: serious contender, at least in events with lesser fields. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: bo I did not add Thompson to my betting card.
Speaker 1: Oh no, sort of kicking myself over what about you?
Speaker 1: Did you did you bet him?
Speaker 2: I didn't have as much as I should have had
Speaker 2: because when we when we published the show, we were
Speaker 2: both really on it. One of our listeners, Eric at
Speaker 2: E twelve two, did tail us on our based on
Speaker 2: what we gave last week, based on Davis Thompson's recent
Speaker 2: how he fits with this golf course against this field,
Speaker 2: and he came up with a big win. He also
Speaker 2: had Michael Thorpyjornsen. I know you had some thor Byjornsen,
Speaker 2: thinks to me, and I had all of thor Bjornsen,
Speaker 2: who cast top five, top ten on top twenty tickets
Speaker 2: for me, I think, I think Eric did the same thing.
Speaker 2: So winners all around except for Fitz who was He
Speaker 2: talked about it, but he wasn't all about it. We
Speaker 2: need to get on that train.
Speaker 1: Well, I did have a top five for thorb Bjornson,
Speaker 1: so while I'm not as wealthy as you and Eric,
Speaker 1: you know that paid off at sixteen to one, so
Speaker 1: it did give me a little bit of a profit
Speaker 1: for the week. Thor Bjornson finished in a three way
Speaker 1: tie for second with ct Pan and Luke Clanton. Bo,
Speaker 1: you've yeah touted the twenty two year old thor Bjornson
Speaker 1: as a rising star and future winner of majors, and
Speaker 1: the tie for the second his best finish of his
Speaker 1: brief PGA Tour career. Speaking of young stars, Bo, Luke
Speaker 1: Clanton no relation to the Clinton family of the Okay
Speaker 1: Corral shootout as far as I.
Speaker 3: Know, No, I don't know.
Speaker 2: It seems pretty seems pretty coincidental at best.
Speaker 1: So young mister Clinton three putted from five feet on
Speaker 1: his final hole at the US Open, blowing a chance
Speaker 1: to tie Neil Shipley for Low amateur honors at the
Speaker 1: US Open. But since then, Clanton has finished tenth at
Speaker 1: the Rocket Mortgage Classic and now second at the John Deere.
Speaker 1: He's another young player we're gonna have to watch closely
Speaker 1: because he's making some noise. Not much else to talk about, really,
Speaker 1: John Deere Classic was indeed the birdie fest we expected
Speaker 1: it to be.
Speaker 3: The cut line was minus five.
Speaker 1: Hayden Springer had an opening round fifty nine and could
Speaker 1: only manage to finish tied for seventh. Follow any reflections
Speaker 1: on the John Deere.
Speaker 2: It was everything we said. It would be another shout
Speaker 2: out to another guy who helped cash tickets, Chan Kim
Speaker 2: with the top twenty finish, that's a good one for
Speaker 2: us to pick. He was one hundred and twenty to
Speaker 2: one outright. But those placement bets on those deeper shots
Speaker 2: have been paying all seasons. So pay close attention. And
Speaker 2: when we're talking about long shots, it's not necessarily that
Speaker 2: we think they're going to win. We just think that
Speaker 2: if their odds are so long outright, you're probably getting
Speaker 2: really good odds on them performing well in general. Top twenty,
Speaker 2: top thirty, top forty bets, you can do made cut
Speaker 2: parlays on most of these books. Get with some of
Speaker 2: these long shots just to get a piece of them,
Speaker 2: can can really turn a profit each week, so it's
Speaker 2: a really good way to build bankroll. And every once
Speaker 2: in a while you get one that just hits and
Speaker 2: they win. The whole thing like we got with the
Speaker 2: Aukshebatia earlier this season, or where we got with Jake
Speaker 2: Knapp earlier in the season, is sometimes the long shots
Speaker 2: do win. Most of the time. They're just there so
Speaker 2: we don't get skunked every week because sometimes it's really
Speaker 2: hard to pick who's going to win. We've been having
Speaker 2: a really good season on the outright market, but it's
Speaker 2: been those base bets at plus four fifty to plus
Speaker 2: eight to fifty in your case, plus eleven fifty on
Speaker 2: a top five on the rookie, those really add up,
Speaker 2: and that you can hit those at a lot higher
Speaker 2: clip than picking out rights in the game of golf,
Speaker 2: where honestly we're just playing a game of probability.
Speaker 1: Yes sir, And now we cross the Atlantic for the
Speaker 1: Scottish Open. We'll get to the preview in just a minute,
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Speaker 1: first time deposit offer of up to two hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus cash. So The Scottish Open will
Speaker 1: be played at the Renaissance Club in North Barrick for
Speaker 1: a sixth time. Located on the east coast of Scotland
Speaker 1: along the North Sea, this event is co sponsored by
Speaker 1: the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour, so we're
Speaker 1: getting a field with players from both tours. The Renaissance
Speaker 1: Club is a par seventy that plays two seven and
Speaker 1: thirty seven yards, was designed by Tom Doak and opened
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight. It's a link style course,
Speaker 1: but the Renaissance Club isn't quite as linxy as Royal Troon,
Speaker 1: host of the British Open in two weeks, But after
Speaker 1: two weeks of tournaments played on Midwestern parkland courses, the
Speaker 1: Renaissance Club will certainly offer a different style of golf.
Speaker 3: The ground in Scotland is.
Speaker 1: Rock hard, as I can attest from a couple of
Speaker 1: golf trips there, so players are going to get a
Speaker 1: lot of runout on their t shots. On links courses,
Speaker 1: you typically won't find bunkers directly in front of the green,
Speaker 1: so players have the option to play bump and run
Speaker 1: approach shots. Sometimes keeping the ball on the ground is
Speaker 1: the way to go on a links course. And we're
Speaker 1: gonna see some creativity around the greens this week. Some
Speaker 1: Texas wedges, you know, some bumping runs from you know.
Speaker 3: Just off.
Speaker 1: The fairways at the Renaissance Club aren't easy to hit,
Speaker 1: but the fescue rough isn't all that punishing. What can
Speaker 1: be punishing, however, the twenty two fairway bunkers scattered around
Speaker 1: the course. A lot of the greenside bunkers are pot bunkers.
Speaker 1: That can be steep and more difficult to navigate than
Speaker 1: the green side bunkers and US courses. The greens at
Speaker 1: the Renaissance Club are big, and like the greens on
Speaker 1: many of the courses in the UK, they're on the slow.
Speaker 3: Side, at least by PGA Tour standards.
Speaker 1: Let's see the Renaissance Club has three par fives, all
Speaker 1: of them reachable, and five par threes. Three of those
Speaker 1: par threes are longer than two hundred yards, and there
Speaker 1: are a couple of shorties, one measuring four one and
Speaker 1: forty seven yards, one measuring one sixty one. They're four
Speaker 1: long par fours measuring or eighty or longer than. The
Speaker 1: fifth hole is a short driveable par four, coming in
Speaker 1: at just three hundred and thirty eight yards. Rory McElroy
Speaker 1: is the defending Scottish Open champion. He finished minus fifteen
Speaker 1: last year to edge Robert McIntyre by one shot. Xanders
Speaker 1: Schoffley won a windy Scottish Open in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: finishing one stroke better than Bo McBrier favorite Kurt Kitty Yama.
Speaker 1: Minwoe Lee was the Minwu Lee was the champ in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. He finished minus eighteen and best did
Speaker 1: Thomas Dietrie and Matthew Fitzpatrick in a playoff. Let's see
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty it was Aaron Rye at minus eleven
Speaker 1: he beat Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff, and in twenty
Speaker 1: nineteen Burned Weisberger won the first Scottish Open at the
Speaker 1: Renaissance Club, finishing twenty two under and beating Benjamin Abart
Speaker 1: in a playoff. So the all important weather forecast for
Speaker 1: North Barrick, where the wind off the North Sea canreek havoc,
Speaker 1: it's not going to be that bad.
Speaker 3: Temperatures are expected to.
Speaker 2: Be in the upat now.
Speaker 1: We say that now, and it is unpredictable, granted, but
Speaker 1: as of now, the forecast calls for temps in the
Speaker 1: upper fifties the first three days, with chances for occasional showers.
Speaker 1: You'll get pop up showers in Scotland all the time.
Speaker 1: Sunday things should dry out and be a little warmer,
Speaker 1: with tempts in the low sixties. The wind is expected
Speaker 1: to be ten to fifteen miles an hour on Thursday
Speaker 1: and then only five to ten miles per hour the
Speaker 1: rest of the tournament. The winds are that benign bow.
Speaker 1: I would expect to shoot out with a winning score
Speaker 1: somewhere around minus twenty, but again, weather conditions can be
Speaker 1: very unpredictable in Scotland. Bo your ancestry traces back to Scotland,
Speaker 1: your thoughts on the Renaissance Club and Scottish golf in general.
Speaker 2: Well, without whether it's a very very easy course, these
Speaker 2: guys are going to just light it up. I've always
Speaker 2: gone back to this old app that a Scottish meteorologist
Speaker 2: is just a sheep with a rope tied to its tail,
Speaker 2: and that's basically basically what the weather is going to
Speaker 2: be like is based on what condition that rope is in,
Speaker 2: and that's it's really you can't predict the weather like
Speaker 2: a weather forecast, even I with ACI Weather and Doppler forecasting,
Speaker 2: especially on the North Sea side of Scotland, it's impossible.
Speaker 2: You have no clue. Nobody has any clue what the
Speaker 2: weather's going to be even in three hours, and so
Speaker 2: that's I think that's completely irrelevant. I have to expect
Speaker 2: that there's going to be inclement weather at some point
Speaker 2: this week, especially with wind. I really don't care about
Speaker 2: the rain because it's just going to make the course easier.
Speaker 2: This course is right for the picking, but if that
Speaker 2: wind picks up like it did last year in the
Speaker 2: year before where it was predicted to be good weather incoming,
Speaker 2: I mean Rory hit that famous two iron from two
Speaker 2: oh six into the teeth of that wind forty mile
Speaker 2: an hour gus. I believe the forecast set a max
Speaker 2: gust of fifteen miles an hour at the time, and
Speaker 2: we did the show last year, so yeah, none of
Speaker 2: that forecasting matters. We want to predict who's going to
Speaker 2: be able to play, whether play and whether when it's bad,
Speaker 2: not if it's bad. I want to prepare for the
Speaker 2: worst and put golfers together that are artists. This is
Speaker 2: a course that requires a lot of care, a lot
Speaker 2: of touch, a lot of finesse, and just creativity. Like
Speaker 2: you mentioned it the bump and run game. You can
Speaker 2: still get around this place with flop shots that the
Speaker 2: wind isn't blowing, but you have to be able to
Speaker 2: adapt with the conditions. And that's why we've seen winners
Speaker 2: like Rory and Xander and even guys that have competed
Speaker 2: here year over year like Thomas Dietrie. All these guys
Speaker 2: are creative ball strikers. They're good when the conditions are good.
Speaker 2: They're even better when the conditions are not good. That's
Speaker 2: who I'm looking for. This tournament's going to be gonna
Speaker 2: hinge on if there's one or two days of bad weather.
Speaker 2: Who's going to rise to the top.
Speaker 1: The two iron into the wind that Rory hit last
Speaker 1: year so memorable and so heroic that there is no
Speaker 1: a plaque on the course honoring that. And I don't
Speaker 1: think I mentioned Xander Schoffley's winning score in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two when the wind was up it was seven under par.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this course was a east.
Speaker 2: This course is nasty when it's bad, and it's super
Speaker 2: easy when it's not.
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Speaker 1: to the odds for the Scottish Open. All odds courtesy
Speaker 1: of DraftKings. As of Monday afternoon, Rory McElroy opens as
Speaker 1: the betting favorite at plus eighty plus eight hundred Xanderschoffley
Speaker 1: plus eight fifty Colin Morrikawa plus fourteen hundred, Ludwig Oberg
Speaker 1: plus sixteen hundred, Tommy Fleetwood plus two thousand, Victor Hovlin
Speaker 1: plus twenty two hundred Tom Kim plus twenty eight hundred
Speaker 1: Minwu Le plus three thousand, Padeki Matsiama plus thirty five hundred,
Speaker 1: Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick plus four thousand, and at
Speaker 1: plus forty five hundred, Sung JM, Robert McIntyre, Aaron Raye,
Speaker 1: and we've got Brian Harmon at plus five thousand. Who
Speaker 1: do you like from this group?
Speaker 2: Right off the top our defending champion Rory McClory's coming
Speaker 2: in with excellent form. I think the odds are a
Speaker 2: little short. They've shrunk to plus seven to fifty on
Speaker 2: by my look right now on Monday afternoon. However, that's
Speaker 2: still fine for a favorite. It's a non Scotty favorite.
Speaker 2: No Scotti Scheffler in this field either. We'll see him
Speaker 2: next week for the Open Championship. But Rory coming into
Speaker 2: this field is still going to be top five in
Speaker 2: most stat models. He's just on a really good run
Speaker 2: of form right now. This course does kind of ben
Speaker 2: the need to power players. Distance does have an advantage here,
Speaker 2: and Rory McClory showed that last year where even when
Speaker 2: the wind picked up, it even gained his another advantage
Speaker 2: because he could cut it through the wind and hit
Speaker 2: it into places where nobody else could get This is
Speaker 2: a big advantage for long hitters who also have good
Speaker 2: short games. Rory McElroy obviously a great short game, and
Speaker 2: that's why he's been on such a run this past
Speaker 2: two months. He's especially he's just on fire. So Rory
Speaker 2: mclroy's a great bat. At plus seven fifty or plus
Speaker 2: eight hundred, anywhere in that range is fined with me.
Speaker 2: And I'm going right to Victor Hovelin because when things
Speaker 2: get tough, when things are a little bit inclement, that's
Speaker 2: when he vaults to the top of the rankings. One
Speaker 2: of the best ball strikers on planet Earth, especially in wind,
Speaker 2: especially when you have to move the ball around. And
Speaker 2: as mediocre as his short game has been, it's better
Speaker 2: when the course demands creativity. It's just the straightforward chips.
Speaker 2: It doesn't seem like he gets too much detailed down.
Speaker 2: But I think his best form around the greens is
Speaker 2: when he's forced to be creative, and he gets to
Speaker 2: do that this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I will tease my betting card. I took
Speaker 1: ror early well, it was late Monday afternoon at plus
Speaker 1: eight hundred. Earlier in the afternoon he had been plus
Speaker 1: six hundred, a price I didn't like nearly as much,
Speaker 1: so plus seven fifty plus seven to fifty not a
Speaker 1: bad price. Still, I think I would have locked that
Speaker 1: in as well, but I feel lucky to have gotten
Speaker 1: him at plus eight hundred. Yeah, you just wonder like
Speaker 1: he's been dialed in for months. He knows golf in
Speaker 1: the UK quite well, the Northern irishman does. We haven't
Speaker 1: seen him since the US Open, and you know the
Speaker 1: tournament he let slip away in painful fashion. How scarred
Speaker 1: will he be by that experience? Probably not very.
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be, if anything, hungry and
Speaker 2: pissed off. Yes, if it's me, I'm betting on Rory
Speaker 2: to come back with guns of blazing, going off and
Speaker 2: trying to just destroy that golf course, defend his title.
Speaker 2: He's got everything to gain. We've seen him at his
Speaker 2: lowest point right now, where he was so close to
Speaker 2: winning that major and breaking that long, long drought. He's
Speaker 2: got a chip on his shoulder this year, especially with
Speaker 2: defending the Scottish Open and getting a shot at Royal
Speaker 2: truon the next week. I think Rory's gonna go scorch
Speaker 2: Dearth this week and next to he's gonna be really
Speaker 2: tough to beat at both places, especially with there's a
Speaker 2: distinct European advantage to these next two courses. I mean,
Speaker 2: we are on sacred, hollowed grounds for golf, and this
Speaker 2: field in particular has seventy five DP World Tour players
Speaker 2: and seventy five PGA Tour players. That's the unique mix,
Speaker 2: is the conjunction of this two tours building this Scottish
Speaker 2: Open field for the first time, it's gonna be unique
Speaker 2: to see the best of both tours. I think there's
Speaker 2: a lot of talent in the European field, even if
Speaker 2: they're PGA Tour players. The Europeans have a distinct advantage
Speaker 2: on these types of golf courses because they're not anything
Speaker 2: like what we see over here. We don't have link
Speaker 2: style golf courses in the United States. They might be
Speaker 2: link style asterisk parentheses, seek immunity notes. Even even Royal
Speaker 2: Barrick or North Barrick is a link style course, but
Speaker 2: it's on the ocean, in on the North Sea. It's
Speaker 2: it's definitely as close to links as you're gonna get
Speaker 2: anywhere in the United States, and I just there there's
Speaker 2: nothing like it. So a lot of what I'm going
Speaker 2: to be going over in my slip is going to
Speaker 2: be European style players or just guys from Europe who
Speaker 2: are used to this kind of golf.
Speaker 1: To your point, I mean the courses in the US
Speaker 1: that we call link style course. It's Whistling Straits in Wisconsin,
Speaker 1: which I've had the privilege of playing.
Speaker 3: It's a great course.
Speaker 1: It's nothing like Scotland. It just doesn't play like a
Speaker 1: Lynx course.
Speaker 2: That's that's on a great lakes. I mean, it's it's
Speaker 2: cool they built the course on the lake in a
Speaker 2: similar fashion. But I think the closest you can get
Speaker 2: in the United States would be like Pebble Beach because
Speaker 2: it's on the northern part of the ocean, cold water.
Speaker 2: You get some really nasty way other every once in
Speaker 2: a while, but it's not anywhere close to at that latitude.
Speaker 2: Right now, in Scotland you can play golf at ten pm.
Speaker 2: It's it's north enough to where in the summertime it's
Speaker 2: not gonna get dark. These guys are not going to
Speaker 2: get suspended due to darkness in the next two weeks,
Speaker 2: just because golf is everything in Scotland in the summertime
Speaker 2: in the squalls. The squalls are always on the horizon.
Speaker 1: Yes, sir, let's go over some of the other favorites.
Speaker 1: So Xander Schaffley the other player with odds shorter than
Speaker 1: ten to one. Xander's finished inside the top fifteen in
Speaker 1: each of his last five events, and he won here
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two under those harsh conditions, so understandable why.
Speaker 3: His odds are so short.
Speaker 1: Colin Marikawa He's also finished top fifteen and five straight events,
Speaker 1: but in two previous appearances at the Scottish Open, he's
Speaker 1: finished seventy first and missed the cots. It's hard to
Speaker 1: tell whether links golf suits Morikawa or not. B poor
Speaker 1: Scottish Open track record, He's missed the cut in his
Speaker 1: last two British Opens. He also won the British Open
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one at Royal Saint George's, So he's
Speaker 1: an interesting case. Do either Xander or Morikawa appeal to
Speaker 1: you at all?
Speaker 2: Xander if it gets nasty, Morikawa if it stays calm.
Speaker 2: He won the Open and Rose Saint George is in
Speaker 2: pretty nice conditions. He's a high ball hitter. He hits
Speaker 2: the ball very high trajectory wise, are's the reason why
Speaker 2: Scotti Scheffler hasn't even come close to winning the Open Championship.
Speaker 2: It's because he's a high ball hitter. He doesn't flight
Speaker 2: the ball down very well. When the wind is up.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a very important part of that kind
Speaker 2: of gulf, and I'm looking for guys that are better
Speaker 2: at flying the ball down, better at getting creative on approach,
Speaker 2: better at getting up and down from weird, really weird
Speaker 2: places where it's not there's nothing in front of you,
Speaker 2: but maybe you're in a gorse bush or nearby or
Speaker 2: in a pot bunker, and you have to be able
Speaker 2: to get the ball up and down on a green
Speaker 2: that's gigantic. You might be ninety feet away from the
Speaker 2: pin in a pop bunker, and you got to find
Speaker 2: a way to get up and down. And some of
Speaker 2: these guys just aren't equipped for that. Their game is
Speaker 2: built for over here, and it's it's just so different.
Speaker 2: So I think I'll go more towards guys who we've
Speaker 2: seen do that, like Hideki Matsuyam at thirty five to one.
Speaker 2: He's played out of his mind well this year, especially
Speaker 2: in tough conditions, and this course is a lot tougher
Speaker 2: than the last three weeks so we've seen on the
Speaker 2: PGA Tour. Even if the conditions are benign, you're not
Speaker 2: gonna see a birdie fest, even if the weather's temperate.
Speaker 2: I do also like Matt Fitzpatrick. It's thirty five one, yeah,
Speaker 2: but if things get a little tougher, like if the
Speaker 2: weather changes, then I'm gonna expect guys like him to
Speaker 2: rise to the occasion grind it out. He comes in
Speaker 2: third in my model when I filter for wind. That
Speaker 2: that really raised my eyebrows on him. Thirty five to
Speaker 2: one on a guy that good at those odds, I'll
Speaker 2: take it.
Speaker 1: I've got a weird vibe about the big oberg Oh,
Speaker 1: like this could be a good week for you missed
Speaker 1: the Cot last year in his debut at the Renaissance Club.
Speaker 1: You know, does he have the experience to give him
Speaker 1: the sort of creativity he might need this week?
Speaker 3: Is that your concern, I am.
Speaker 2: My concern is his style is he's a high ball hitter,
Speaker 2: likes he hits the ball really high, and that's it.
Speaker 2: It plays a big part when greens are fast and
Speaker 2: you need to be able to tuck it into certain spots.
Speaker 2: Like here, you just have to hit it close. You
Speaker 2: have to be able to hit it close whether the
Speaker 2: wind is up or not. And I don't know that
Speaker 2: he can do that. I don't. I don't like his
Speaker 2: style with this type of golf understood.
Speaker 1: Yet it was the weather forecast that's sort of emboldened
Speaker 1: me to take him. But as you said, the weather forecast,
Speaker 1: how much stake should we be putting in that? Maybe
Speaker 1: I'm putting a little too much into it by taking Olberg.
Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood has finished top twenty six in six straight
Speaker 1: events over the last two months, but he has no
Speaker 1: top tens in that time. But he does have a
Speaker 1: strong record at the Renaissance Club. His finishes in his
Speaker 1: last four appearance here second, twenty sixth, fourth, sixth, Minwu
Speaker 1: Lee tied for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two
Speaker 1: weeks ago. One here in twenty twenty one, when conditions
Speaker 1: were pretty benign.
Speaker 3: Let's see.
Speaker 1: Tom Kim has finished third and sixth in his two
Speaker 1: prior Scottish Open appearances. Lost a playoff to Scottie Scheffler
Speaker 1: at the Travelers three weeks ago, although he then missed
Speaker 1: the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Aaron Raye something
Speaker 1: you liked enough to take in our one and done
Speaker 1: bow last week one here in twenty twenty, and has
Speaker 1: been in fine form lately. Second at the Rock and Mortgage,
Speaker 1: seventh at the John Deere. Let's see he sung j
Speaker 1: M four top tens in his last seven events, plus
Speaker 1: a twelfth last week at the John Deere. However, he
Speaker 1: has missed the cut at the Scottish Open in each
Speaker 1: of the last two years. And one more guy I'll
Speaker 1: mention Robert McIntyre finished second here last year in his
Speaker 1: two other top twenties at the Renaissance Club, and he's
Speaker 1: a scott obviously, but he's had a wild season. Man
Speaker 1: won the Canadian Open, finished top ten at the PGA
Speaker 1: bod McIntyre has also missed the cut in six of
Speaker 1: his last twelve tour events. So do any of those
Speaker 1: guys appeal to you or not?
Speaker 3: Really?
Speaker 2: Not really? Maybe minwe Lee at fifty five or thirty
Speaker 2: to one right now, I think that's too short for him.
Speaker 2: He's had such a terrible season on approach that his
Speaker 2: win and top five finished the last couple of years
Speaker 2: at this golf course. I don't really put stock in
Speaker 2: it because he was playing better golf at those times.
Speaker 2: This is very much what have you done for me
Speaker 2: lately type of golf course where if you come in
Speaker 2: and you have the right mindset and you're also playing
Speaker 2: good golf, you can take this thing down. Minw Lee
Speaker 2: played well last week, but he kind of fizzled out
Speaker 2: at the end. His approach game has been so bad
Speaker 2: that I really don't feel great about it. He's going
Speaker 2: to have to score a lot better on par four's,
Speaker 2: and he's gonna have to avoid Bowie's a lot better
Speaker 2: than he has been. He's way down in my model,
Speaker 2: so is Tom Kim. Tommy Fleetwood always rates out well.
Speaker 2: He should do well, but if you're if you keeping
Speaker 2: score at home. He has never won a PGA Tour event.
Speaker 2: He has never won anything. He hasn't won anything in
Speaker 2: the last three years, other than being part of the
Speaker 2: Ryder Cup for Europe, which was a landslide. But yeah,
Speaker 2: unfortunately for Tommy Fleetwood, unless you're betting him to make
Speaker 2: the top ten, you're not going to make any money
Speaker 2: because Tommy Fleetwood doesn't win.
Speaker 3: That's true.
Speaker 1: Let's look at mid range plays at plus fifty five
Speaker 1: hundred are Wyndham Clark Davis, Thompson, Corey Connors and ben On.
Speaker 1: And let's see at plus six thousand, we've got Sepstraka,
Speaker 1: Christian Bazudin, Howes, sahiit Degala and Max Homa. Jordan Speith
Speaker 1: is plus sixty five hundred. Thomas Detree and Adam Scott
Speaker 1: are plus seven thousand, Ryan Fox and Eric van Royan
Speaker 1: are plus seventy five hundred, and at plus eight thousand
Speaker 1: are Tom mckibbon, Tom Hogue, Seewu Kim and Alex Norin.
Speaker 1: How about the mid range options ball.
Speaker 2: This is more my speed. Ben On has the distance advantage.
Speaker 2: His putting has been a lot better this season. I
Speaker 2: think ben On's got a really nice number at fifty
Speaker 2: five to one. His power is going to be an
Speaker 2: advantage here. Same goes for Ryan Fox. Ryan Fox is
Speaker 2: a bomber and a half. He annihilates par four's that's
Speaker 2: going to come into play a lot on this golf
Speaker 2: course where the par fours are tricky. You have a
Speaker 2: vast array of them. And so I did take a
Speaker 2: really broad stroke on strokes gain par four and he
Speaker 2: rated thirteenth in this entire field. So Ryan Fox is
Speaker 2: very high on my list. Deetree has a great track record.
Speaker 2: He's a horse for this course if I've ever seen one.
Speaker 2: The Belgian obviously European. He's played well in tough conditions.
Speaker 2: He's played well in European golf course conditions. I think
Speaker 2: that's he's in really good form right now to pay
Speaker 2: off at seven to one. So those two guys are
Speaker 2: kind of my favorites in that range.
Speaker 1: So On was third here last year, and the last
Speaker 1: time we saw mister On he was missing the cut
Speaker 1: at the US Open and then withdrawing from the Travelers.
Speaker 1: But he did record back to back top fives at
Speaker 1: the Byron Nelson and the Wells Fargo two months ago.
Speaker 1: Dtree second here in twenty twenty one, tenth in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, five for five, making the cut at the
Speaker 1: Renaissance Club.
Speaker 3: And you know, the Belgian hasn't really.
Speaker 1: Made much noise lately, but he does have three top
Speaker 1: fives this season.
Speaker 3: Let's see Max Homa.
Speaker 1: It's had kind of an up and down year, but
Speaker 1: he's shown some aptitude at the Renaissance Club, finishing sixteenth
Speaker 1: and twelfth in two previous appearances. And Tom mckibbon is
Speaker 1: someone American fans might not be familiar with. He is
Speaker 1: a twenty one year old rising star from Northern Ireland
Speaker 1: who has finished top ten and four of his last
Speaker 1: six DP World Tour events. He was second at the
Speaker 1: Italian Open a couple of weeks ago. What about long
Speaker 1: anyone with odds of ninety to one or longer who interested?
Speaker 2: Number two in my entire model is Danny McCarthy. It
Speaker 2: comes in handy that he's a great approach player, he's
Speaker 2: a great putter, He avoids bogies like crazy. He plays
Speaker 2: very well in wind. That's that's right at the very
Speaker 2: top of my of my whole board, and going back
Speaker 2: to Dorcal Kurt Kittyama, he's played well here over the years.
Speaker 2: You know why, because it's dry and windy here all
Speaker 2: the damn time. So yeah, I think that he just
Speaker 2: feels at home, especially when the wind picks up. He's
Speaker 2: he's well equipped to his stingers all day. I'm pretty
Speaker 2: sure we kind of as soon as we learn to
Speaker 2: swing a club, we're hitting stingers off the tee just
Speaker 2: to get it under the wind. So I think that if,
Speaker 2: especially if the conditions worsen, you're going to see players
Speaker 2: like Kurt Kittyama rise because they are so adept at
Speaker 2: grinding out pars and making making birdies on holes where
Speaker 2: nobody else is. He's he's that kind of player where
Speaker 2: he buckles down and get and makes makes u and
Speaker 2: holes out when it's tough. I really like that, especially
Speaker 2: at his odds. I think he's at one hundred and
Speaker 2: ten to one right now. That's a that's a really
Speaker 2: nice number for a guy of his caliber. That's that's
Speaker 2: pretty much in that range where I go. Justin Rose
Speaker 2: is another guy that when the conditions get tougher, another
Speaker 2: English golfer who's played these kinds of golf courses his
Speaker 2: entire life. He's ninth in my model, and I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go all the way down, all the way down, and
Speaker 2: we're gonna you're gonna laugh this. This is a good one.
Speaker 2: We're gonna go to Antoine Rosner. Antoine Rosner is four
Speaker 2: hundred to one, and he's very high on my list.
Speaker 2: The Frenchman. I believe he's a he's that kind of guy.
Speaker 2: It's just this this kind of golf course brings out
Speaker 2: some wild ones. I have a couple of other deep
Speaker 2: shots and I'm kind of hesitant to throughout there because
Speaker 2: my model is a little bit shaky at the moment.
Speaker 2: But one of them is Vincent Norman. I believe he's
Speaker 2: a Swede two ours. He's a bomb and gouge type
Speaker 2: of guy. So if the conditions are good, I can
Speaker 2: see guys like Vincent Norman rise to the top. If
Speaker 2: they're not good, you're gonna see guys like a Rosner,
Speaker 2: the crafty, bump and run guys. They're just ball strikers,
Speaker 2: they're creative, they're the artists.
Speaker 3: I was considering a different Frenchman, Bo, Matthew Pavan. It
Speaker 3: seems like ninety to one, just seems like a value there.
Speaker 3: Finished twelfth here in twenty twenty one and was in
Speaker 3: the Hunted the US Open obviously last month, finishing fifth.
Speaker 3: And I'll mention one more European Ewan Ferguson is a
Speaker 3: twenty eight year old scott who obviously has some experience
Speaker 3: with Scottish golf. He was twelfth here a year ago
Speaker 3: and coming off a win at the BMW Invitational Open
Speaker 3: last week. All right, Bo, what do you have on
Speaker 3: your betting card as of this moment?
Speaker 2: All right, so I do have some Rory McIlroy at
Speaker 2: plus seven fifty, Victor Hovelin at twenty two to one,
Speaker 2: Hideki Matsuyama at thirty five, and we're going all the
Speaker 2: way down to I did throw in some Jordan Speith.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of shaky on it because he's played so badly,
Speaker 2: but I think that Jordan Speed, for some reason in
Speaker 2: my head, is gonna pull it around. Danny McCarthy at
Speaker 2: ninety to one, Kirk Kittayama on ten to one, Justin
Speaker 2: Rose at one hundred and fifty to one, and then
Speaker 2: we're gonna we're just gonna throw it out over while
Speaker 2: five dollars with Antoine Rosner.
Speaker 1: Well, we're both going hard this week. I've got Rory
Speaker 1: at plus eight hundred. I did go with Olberg at
Speaker 1: plus sixteen hundred, and I went with Tom Kim here
Speaker 1: kind of making me regret it.
Speaker 3: I feel like I.
Speaker 1: Should have put that money I've been on instead. But
Speaker 1: I've got Tom Kim at plus twenty eight hundred. I
Speaker 1: do have Thomas Deetree at plus seven thousand and top
Speaker 1: five at plus fourteen hundred. I bet Tom mckibbon a
Speaker 1: little something at eighty to one and a top five
Speaker 1: at fourteen to one. I've got Pavon to win outright
Speaker 1: ninety to one, and I've got you and Ferguson at
Speaker 1: one hundred and ten to one with a top five
Speaker 1: kicker at twenty to one. Now, before we get to
Speaker 1: our one and done picks, if you're playing in a
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Speaker 1: Now for the one and done picks. Last week, Bo
Speaker 1: took Aaron Raye, who finished tied for seventh, good for
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty two thousand, four hundred dollars. I
Speaker 1: took Sepstraca, who tied for sixty first, good for seventeen
Speaker 1: thy two hundred. I'm not sure I could buy a
Speaker 1: decent used car for that. The money Scepstraca earned me
Speaker 1: last week.
Speaker 3: Now much so Bo.
Speaker 1: Extends his lead. He's at about eleven point seven million
Speaker 1: for the season. I'm about four million back at seven
Speaker 1: point seven million. You are up first this week, Bo,
Speaker 1: Who you got?
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm in cruise control at this point,
Speaker 2: because I mean, the Tour Championship could throw me off
Speaker 2: at the end of the season. But I do feel
Speaker 2: confident that I got this thing. As long as I
Speaker 2: can keep my head on my shoulders, I'm going to
Speaker 2: play it relatively safe with Matt Fitzpatrick this week.
Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick, Oh, and what am I gonna do here?
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Oberg.
Speaker 1: Him I have, and I'm not sure if this is
Speaker 1: the right spot to pull him out. I guess I'm
Speaker 1: counting on that He's mild weather forecast.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's talented enough for sure. I just don't know
Speaker 2: about the fit.
Speaker 3: And that's gonna do it.
Speaker 1: For this week's show, thanks again to our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy.
Speaker 1: Sign up for Underdog with the promo code BP Golf
Speaker 1: to claim your special pick and to get a first
Speaker 1: time to posit offer of up to two hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus cash, and please come join Bo
Speaker 1: and I again next week when we'll be previewing the
Speaker 1: final major of the season, the British Open at Royal Troon.
Speaker 3: Until then, so long everyone.
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