WEBVTT - Scottish Open: Odds, Predictions & One-And-Done Picks | Presented by Underdog Fantasy (Ep. 481) 0:00:01.320 --> 0:00:04.880 Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris 0:00:05.000 --> 0:00:07.720 here with Bau mcbrair. Are you ready for two weeks 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.320 of golf tournaments in the United Kingdom because we have 0:00:10.360 --> 0:00:13.680 the Scottish Open this week, the British Open next week, 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:17.239 and today we'll preview the Scottish Open. We'll also recap 0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:19.279 the John Deere Classic, and at the end of the 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:21.319 show we'll give you our one and done picks for 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.840 the week. The Betting pros PGA Podcast is sponsored by 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:28.800 Underdog Fantasy. Underdog is the place to go for fantasy 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:32.040 football bestball contests, but you might not have known that 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:36.840 Underdog has golf contest too. Visit Underdog Fantasy dot com 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:39.480 or find Underdog in the app store, and don't forget 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:42.680 to register with the promo code BP Golf to claim 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:45.400 your special pick and to get a first time deposit 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:47.559 offer of up to two hundred and fifty dollars in 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.040 bonus cash. More on Underdog and It's golf contest. A 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:55.240 little later, Davis Thompson wins the John Deere Classic bow 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:57.520 and he does it without a lot of drama. The 0:00:57.520 --> 0:01:01.240 twenty five year old Thompson scorched TP deer Ron for 0:01:01.280 --> 0:01:05.319 four days, finishing twenty eight under par. Thompson had rounds 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:08.759 of sixty three, sixty seven, sixty two and sixty four. 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:12.160 He wound up winning by a comfortable four shot margin. 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.360 Bow and I had talked about Thompson last week as 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:19.840 an intriguing betting option. He'd finished top twenty in four 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:22.000 of his previous six starts and was coming off a 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:25.240 tie for second at the Rock and Mortgage Classic. Thompson 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:27.959 had also tied for second at the Myrtle Beach Classic 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:29.960 in May, so he'd shown that he could be a 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:34.120 serious contender, at least in events with lesser fields. Unfortunately, 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:36.600 bo I did not add Thompson to my betting card. 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:39.680 Oh no, sort of kicking myself over what about you? 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:41.319 Did you did you bet him? 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:44.240 I didn't have as much as I should have had 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:46.920 because when we when we published the show, we were 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:51.160 both really on it. One of our listeners, Eric at 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:56.000 E twelve two, did tail us on our based on 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:59.920 what we gave last week, based on Davis Thompson's recent 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:02.840 how he fits with this golf course against this field, 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:05.920 and he came up with a big win. He also 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:10.240 had Michael Thorpyjornsen. I know you had some thor Byjornsen, 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:13.200 thinks to me, and I had all of thor Bjornsen, 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:16.960 who cast top five, top ten on top twenty tickets 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.080 for me, I think, I think Eric did the same thing. 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:25.240 So winners all around except for Fitz who was He 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:27.680 talked about it, but he wasn't all about it. We 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:28.840 need to get on that train. 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:33.120 Well, I did have a top five for thorb Bjornson, 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:35.919 so while I'm not as wealthy as you and Eric, 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:39.000 you know that paid off at sixteen to one, so 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:40.600 it did give me a little bit of a profit 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:43.519 for the week. Thor Bjornson finished in a three way 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.880 tie for second with ct Pan and Luke Clanton. Bo, 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:51.520 you've yeah touted the twenty two year old thor Bjornson 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:54.600 as a rising star and future winner of majors, and 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:57.560 the tie for the second his best finish of his 0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:01.639 brief PGA Tour career. Speaking of young stars, Bo, Luke 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:05.840 Clanton no relation to the Clinton family of the Okay 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:07.359 Corral shootout as far as I. 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:08.600 Know, No, I don't know. 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:12.600 It seems pretty seems pretty coincidental at best. 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:18.360 So young mister Clinton three putted from five feet on 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.080 his final hole at the US Open, blowing a chance 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:25.720 to tie Neil Shipley for Low amateur honors at the 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.800 US Open. But since then, Clanton has finished tenth at 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.760 the Rocket Mortgage Classic and now second at the John Deere. 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.679 He's another young player we're gonna have to watch closely 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:38.480 because he's making some noise. Not much else to talk about, really, 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:42.280 John Deere Classic was indeed the birdie fest we expected 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:42.640 it to be. 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:44.080 The cut line was minus five. 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:47.160 Hayden Springer had an opening round fifty nine and could 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:50.640 only manage to finish tied for seventh. Follow any reflections 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:51.600 on the John Deere. 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.360 It was everything we said. It would be another shout 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.360 out to another guy who helped cash tickets, Chan Kim 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.920 with the top twenty finish, that's a good one for 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:02.520 us to pick. He was one hundred and twenty to 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.800 one outright. But those placement bets on those deeper shots 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:08.680 have been paying all seasons. So pay close attention. And 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:11.720 when we're talking about long shots, it's not necessarily that 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:14.080 we think they're going to win. We just think that 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:17.520 if their odds are so long outright, you're probably getting 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:21.640 really good odds on them performing well in general. Top twenty, 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:24.400 top thirty, top forty bets, you can do made cut 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:28.159 parlays on most of these books. Get with some of 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:30.240 these long shots just to get a piece of them, 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:32.960 can can really turn a profit each week, so it's 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.800 a really good way to build bankroll. And every once 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:38.599 in a while you get one that just hits and 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:41.240 they win. The whole thing like we got with the 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:44.640 Aukshebatia earlier this season, or where we got with Jake 0:04:44.720 --> 0:04:47.360 Knapp earlier in the season, is sometimes the long shots 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:49.680 do win. Most of the time. They're just there so 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:52.360 we don't get skunked every week because sometimes it's really 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:55.360 hard to pick who's going to win. We've been having 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.960 a really good season on the outright market, but it's 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.040 been those base bets at plus four fifty to plus 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:04.760 eight to fifty in your case, plus eleven fifty on 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:08.120 a top five on the rookie, those really add up, 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:10.640 and that you can hit those at a lot higher 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:12.799 clip than picking out rights in the game of golf, 0:05:12.800 --> 0:05:16.920 where honestly we're just playing a game of probability. 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:19.400 Yes sir, And now we cross the Atlantic for the 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:22.599 Scottish Open. We'll get to the preview in just a minute, 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:25.760 but first our friends at Underdog Fantasy are letting you 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.960 make picks on your favorite golfers all season long. Just 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.719 pick higher or lower on selected stats for two to 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:34.480 five golfers and you can win up to twenty times 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:36.680 your money in a single day. You can also make 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:39.400 rivals picks, where you choose, for instance, which of two 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:43.000 golfers will shoot better scoring around golf. Picks can be 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:47.200 combined with stats player stats from other sports too. Go 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.919 sign up an Underdog Fantasy with the promo code BP 0:05:50.200 --> 0:05:52.400 Golf to claim your special pick and to get a 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:54.520 first time deposit offer of up to two hundred and 0:05:54.560 --> 0:05:58.520 fifty dollars in bonus cash. So The Scottish Open will 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:01.560 be played at the Renaissance Club in North Barrick for 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:05.520 a sixth time. Located on the east coast of Scotland 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:08.880 along the North Sea, this event is co sponsored by 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:11.360 the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour, so we're 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.760 getting a field with players from both tours. The Renaissance 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.040 Club is a par seventy that plays two seven and 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:21.279 thirty seven yards, was designed by Tom Doak and opened 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:25.159 in two thousand and eight. It's a link style course, 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:29.360 but the Renaissance Club isn't quite as linxy as Royal Troon, 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:32.880 host of the British Open in two weeks, But after 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:36.280 two weeks of tournaments played on Midwestern parkland courses, the 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:39.680 Renaissance Club will certainly offer a different style of golf. 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.000 The ground in Scotland is. 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.640 Rock hard, as I can attest from a couple of 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:46.720 golf trips there, so players are going to get a 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:49.839 lot of runout on their t shots. On links courses, 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:53.359 you typically won't find bunkers directly in front of the green, 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:56.799 so players have the option to play bump and run 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:59.160 approach shots. Sometimes keeping the ball on the ground is 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:01.960 the way to go on a links course. And we're 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.880 gonna see some creativity around the greens this week. Some 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:09.120 Texas wedges, you know, some bumping runs from you know. 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:09.640 Just off. 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:13.200 The fairways at the Renaissance Club aren't easy to hit, 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:16.720 but the fescue rough isn't all that punishing. What can 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:21.320 be punishing, however, the twenty two fairway bunkers scattered around 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.600 the course. A lot of the greenside bunkers are pot bunkers. 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:27.720 That can be steep and more difficult to navigate than 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:31.400 the green side bunkers and US courses. The greens at 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:34.760 the Renaissance Club are big, and like the greens on 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:38.080 many of the courses in the UK, they're on the slow. 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:40.200 Side, at least by PGA Tour standards. 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:43.560 Let's see the Renaissance Club has three par fives, all 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:47.240 of them reachable, and five par threes. Three of those 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.960 par threes are longer than two hundred yards, and there 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:53.680 are a couple of shorties, one measuring four one and 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:57.520 forty seven yards, one measuring one sixty one. They're four 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:01.600 long par fours measuring or eighty or longer than. The 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:04.920 fifth hole is a short driveable par four, coming in 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:08.840 at just three hundred and thirty eight yards. Rory McElroy 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:12.239 is the defending Scottish Open champion. He finished minus fifteen 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:16.720 last year to edge Robert McIntyre by one shot. Xanders 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:19.840 Schoffley won a windy Scottish Open in twenty twenty two, 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:24.080 finishing one stroke better than Bo McBrier favorite Kurt Kitty Yama. 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:28.480 Minwoe Lee was the Minwu Lee was the champ in 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:32.719 twenty twenty one. He finished minus eighteen and best did 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.600 Thomas Dietrie and Matthew Fitzpatrick in a playoff. Let's see 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.079 in twenty twenty it was Aaron Rye at minus eleven 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.160 he beat Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff, and in twenty 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:46.120 nineteen Burned Weisberger won the first Scottish Open at the 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:51.079 Renaissance Club, finishing twenty two under and beating Benjamin Abart 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:55.880 in a playoff. So the all important weather forecast for 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:59.400 North Barrick, where the wind off the North Sea canreek havoc, 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:01.679 it's not going to be that bad. 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:03.120 Temperatures are expected to. 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:04.000 Be in the upat now. 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.920 We say that now, and it is unpredictable, granted, but 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:11.240 as of now, the forecast calls for temps in the 0:09:11.320 --> 0:09:15.280 upper fifties the first three days, with chances for occasional showers. 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:17.720 You'll get pop up showers in Scotland all the time. 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:21.960 Sunday things should dry out and be a little warmer, 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:25.040 with tempts in the low sixties. The wind is expected 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:28.680 to be ten to fifteen miles an hour on Thursday 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:31.480 and then only five to ten miles per hour the 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:34.480 rest of the tournament. The winds are that benign bow. 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:36.640 I would expect to shoot out with a winning score 0:09:37.120 --> 0:09:42.360 somewhere around minus twenty, but again, weather conditions can be 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:47.199 very unpredictable in Scotland. Bo your ancestry traces back to Scotland, 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:51.480 your thoughts on the Renaissance Club and Scottish golf in general. 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:54.520 Well, without whether it's a very very easy course, these 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:58.280 guys are going to just light it up. I've always 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:02.400 gone back to this old app that a Scottish meteorologist 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:04.800 is just a sheep with a rope tied to its tail, 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:07.840 and that's basically basically what the weather is going to 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:11.120 be like is based on what condition that rope is in, 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.760 and that's it's really you can't predict the weather like 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:18.080 a weather forecast, even I with ACI Weather and Doppler forecasting, 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:22.240 especially on the North Sea side of Scotland, it's impossible. 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:24.360 You have no clue. Nobody has any clue what the 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.200 weather's going to be even in three hours, and so 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:31.719 that's I think that's completely irrelevant. I have to expect 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.160 that there's going to be inclement weather at some point 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.560 this week, especially with wind. I really don't care about 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:39.800 the rain because it's just going to make the course easier. 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:42.520 This course is right for the picking, but if that 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:44.400 wind picks up like it did last year in the 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:48.040 year before where it was predicted to be good weather incoming, 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.319 I mean Rory hit that famous two iron from two 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.920 oh six into the teeth of that wind forty mile 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.880 an hour gus. I believe the forecast set a max 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.160 gust of fifteen miles an hour at the time, and 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:03.440 we did the show last year, so yeah, none of 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:07.120 that forecasting matters. We want to predict who's going to 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:10.120 be able to play, whether play and whether when it's bad, 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.760 not if it's bad. I want to prepare for the 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:15.880 worst and put golfers together that are artists. This is 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.800 a course that requires a lot of care, a lot 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.880 of touch, a lot of finesse, and just creativity. Like 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:23.960 you mentioned it the bump and run game. You can 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:26.240 still get around this place with flop shots that the 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:28.840 wind isn't blowing, but you have to be able to 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:31.920 adapt with the conditions. And that's why we've seen winners 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:35.320 like Rory and Xander and even guys that have competed 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:37.880 here year over year like Thomas Dietrie. All these guys 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.240 are creative ball strikers. They're good when the conditions are good. 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:44.679 They're even better when the conditions are not good. That's 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:47.920 who I'm looking for. This tournament's going to be gonna 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.720 hinge on if there's one or two days of bad weather. 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:52.800 Who's going to rise to the top. 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:56.439 The two iron into the wind that Rory hit last 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:58.800 year so memorable and so heroic that there is no 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:02.560 a plaque on the course honoring that. And I don't 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:05.839 think I mentioned Xander Schoffley's winning score in twenty twenty 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.600 two when the wind was up it was seven under par. 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.040 Yeah, I mean this course was a east. 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:16.079 This course is nasty when it's bad, and it's super 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:16.840 easy when it's not. 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:19.560 If you want a chance to win a free one 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.840 year premium Betting Pro subscription, subscribe to the Betting Pros 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:26.120 YouTube channel right now, comment below on this video and 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:28.280 that's it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:31.200 the channel. So turn on your notifications so you can 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:33.480 be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:37.080 your prize. And speaking of prizes, Betting Pros is giving 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:42.040 away a signed Julio Rodriguez jersey for free, courtesy of 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:46.160 our friends at Pristineauction dot com. Entering the contest is easy. 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:52.200 Go to www Bettingpros dot com slash contest again Www 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:56.360 Bettingpros dot com slash contest and complete the entry form. 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.640 Then download the Betting Pros app, leave a review for 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:03.240 this podcast, or subscribe to our social media channels. More 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:07.000 actions you complete, the more entries you get. Every follow 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:10.560 and review helps and boosts your chances of winning just 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.920 by sharing your feedback on our podcast. The entry deadline 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:19.439 is July thirty first, so go visit www dot bettingpros 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:22.480 dot com slash contest for your chance to win a 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:28.559 signed Julio Rodriguez Mariners Jersey okay bo. So let's get 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:31.240 to the odds for the Scottish Open. All odds courtesy 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:35.240 of DraftKings. As of Monday afternoon, Rory McElroy opens as 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:40.120 the betting favorite at plus eighty plus eight hundred Xanderschoffley 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:44.960 plus eight fifty Colin Morrikawa plus fourteen hundred, Ludwig Oberg 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:49.640 plus sixteen hundred, Tommy Fleetwood plus two thousand, Victor Hovlin 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:53.040 plus twenty two hundred Tom Kim plus twenty eight hundred 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:57.880 Minwu Le plus three thousand, Padeki Matsiama plus thirty five hundred, 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:02.240 Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick plus four thousand, and at 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:07.640 plus forty five hundred, Sung JM, Robert McIntyre, Aaron Raye, 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.720 and we've got Brian Harmon at plus five thousand. Who 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:12.839 do you like from this group? 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.680 Right off the top our defending champion Rory McClory's coming 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.120 in with excellent form. I think the odds are a 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:21.760 little short. They've shrunk to plus seven to fifty on 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.960 by my look right now on Monday afternoon. However, that's 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.800 still fine for a favorite. It's a non Scotty favorite. 0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:31.480 No Scotti Scheffler in this field either. We'll see him 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.960 next week for the Open Championship. But Rory coming into 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:38.120 this field is still going to be top five in 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:41.520 most stat models. He's just on a really good run 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:45.840 of form right now. This course does kind of ben 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:49.440 the need to power players. Distance does have an advantage here, 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.040 and Rory McClory showed that last year where even when 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:56.200 the wind picked up, it even gained his another advantage 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:58.680 because he could cut it through the wind and hit 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.960 it into places where nobody else could get This is 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:05.440 a big advantage for long hitters who also have good 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:09.280 short games. Rory McElroy obviously a great short game, and 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:12.360 that's why he's been on such a run this past 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.720 two months. He's especially he's just on fire. So Rory 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:18.080 mclroy's a great bat. At plus seven fifty or plus 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:20.240 eight hundred, anywhere in that range is fined with me. 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:23.800 And I'm going right to Victor Hovelin because when things 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:27.720 get tough, when things are a little bit inclement, that's 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:31.040 when he vaults to the top of the rankings. One 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.400 of the best ball strikers on planet Earth, especially in wind, 0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:37.280 especially when you have to move the ball around. And 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:41.320 as mediocre as his short game has been, it's better 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:45.720 when the course demands creativity. It's just the straightforward chips. 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.800 It doesn't seem like he gets too much detailed down. 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:51.760 But I think his best form around the greens is 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.720 when he's forced to be creative, and he gets to 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:55.840 do that this week. 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:59.600 Yeah, so I will tease my betting card. I took 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.560 ror early well, it was late Monday afternoon at plus 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:07.040 eight hundred. Earlier in the afternoon he had been plus 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.640 six hundred, a price I didn't like nearly as much, 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.720 so plus seven fifty plus seven to fifty not a 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:15.720 bad price. Still, I think I would have locked that 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:17.640 in as well, but I feel lucky to have gotten 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:21.600 him at plus eight hundred. Yeah, you just wonder like 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.880 he's been dialed in for months. He knows golf in 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:29.880 the UK quite well, the Northern irishman does. We haven't 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.920 seen him since the US Open, and you know the 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.800 tournament he let slip away in painful fashion. How scarred 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:41.000 will he be by that experience? Probably not very. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:43.360 I think he's going to be, if anything, hungry and 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:47.720 pissed off. Yes, if it's me, I'm betting on Rory 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.360 to come back with guns of blazing, going off and 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:55.080 trying to just destroy that golf course, defend his title. 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.520 He's got everything to gain. We've seen him at his 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:01.440 lowest point right now, where he was so close to 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:06.600 winning that major and breaking that long, long drought. He's 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:09.240 got a chip on his shoulder this year, especially with 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.560 defending the Scottish Open and getting a shot at Royal 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:15.440 truon the next week. I think Rory's gonna go scorch 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.160 Dearth this week and next to he's gonna be really 0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:21.840 tough to beat at both places, especially with there's a 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:26.600 distinct European advantage to these next two courses. I mean, 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:31.400 we are on sacred, hollowed grounds for golf, and this 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:35.440 field in particular has seventy five DP World Tour players 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:38.480 and seventy five PGA Tour players. That's the unique mix, 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:42.800 is the conjunction of this two tours building this Scottish 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:46.000 Open field for the first time, it's gonna be unique 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.120 to see the best of both tours. I think there's 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:51.560 a lot of talent in the European field, even if 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.520 they're PGA Tour players. The Europeans have a distinct advantage 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.520 on these types of golf courses because they're not anything 0:17:57.600 --> 0:17:59.560 like what we see over here. We don't have link 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.359 style golf courses in the United States. They might be 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:10.359 link style asterisk parentheses, seek immunity notes. Even even Royal 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:13.399 Barrick or North Barrick is a link style course, but 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:17.200 it's on the ocean, in on the North Sea. It's 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.080 it's definitely as close to links as you're gonna get 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.040 anywhere in the United States, and I just there there's 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.399 nothing like it. So a lot of what I'm going 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.240 to be going over in my slip is going to 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:31.000 be European style players or just guys from Europe who 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:32.280 are used to this kind of golf. 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.560 To your point, I mean the courses in the US 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:39.240 that we call link style course. It's Whistling Straits in Wisconsin, 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:40.560 which I've had the privilege of playing. 0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:41.359 It's a great course. 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.720 It's nothing like Scotland. It just doesn't play like a 0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:45.800 Lynx course. 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.400 That's that's on a great lakes. I mean, it's it's 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:51.520 cool they built the course on the lake in a 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:53.920 similar fashion. But I think the closest you can get 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.000 in the United States would be like Pebble Beach because 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:58.320 it's on the northern part of the ocean, cold water. 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.200 You get some really nasty way other every once in 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:05.320 a while, but it's not anywhere close to at that latitude. 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:08.159 Right now, in Scotland you can play golf at ten pm. 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:12.960 It's it's north enough to where in the summertime it's 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:14.560 not gonna get dark. These guys are not going to 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:17.879 get suspended due to darkness in the next two weeks, 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:21.399 just because golf is everything in Scotland in the summertime 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:25.440 in the squalls. The squalls are always on the horizon. 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:29.120 Yes, sir, let's go over some of the other favorites. 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:32.280 So Xander Schaffley the other player with odds shorter than 0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:35.680 ten to one. Xander's finished inside the top fifteen in 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.600 each of his last five events, and he won here 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:42.720 in twenty twenty two under those harsh conditions, so understandable why. 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:43.679 His odds are so short. 0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:48.240 Colin Marikawa He's also finished top fifteen and five straight events, 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:52.000 but in two previous appearances at the Scottish Open, he's 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:55.480 finished seventy first and missed the cots. It's hard to 0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:59.480 tell whether links golf suits Morikawa or not. B poor 0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:02.439 Scottish Open track record, He's missed the cut in his 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:05.560 last two British Opens. He also won the British Open 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:10.200 in twenty twenty one at Royal Saint George's, So he's 0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:13.960 an interesting case. Do either Xander or Morikawa appeal to 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:14.400 you at all? 0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:18.280 Xander if it gets nasty, Morikawa if it stays calm. 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:20.760 He won the Open and Rose Saint George is in 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:23.920 pretty nice conditions. He's a high ball hitter. He hits 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:27.040 the ball very high trajectory wise, are's the reason why 0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:31.080 Scotti Scheffler hasn't even come close to winning the Open Championship. 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:33.399 It's because he's a high ball hitter. He doesn't flight 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:35.640 the ball down very well. When the wind is up. 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.280 It's gonna be a very important part of that kind 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:40.760 of gulf, and I'm looking for guys that are better 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:43.399 at flying the ball down, better at getting creative on approach, 0:20:43.880 --> 0:20:47.439 better at getting up and down from weird, really weird 0:20:47.480 --> 0:20:50.040 places where it's not there's nothing in front of you, 0:20:50.440 --> 0:20:52.760 but maybe you're in a gorse bush or nearby or 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:54.400 in a pot bunker, and you have to be able 0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:56.399 to get the ball up and down on a green 0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:59.600 that's gigantic. You might be ninety feet away from the 0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:01.720 pin in a pop bunker, and you got to find 0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:03.119 a way to get up and down. And some of 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.399 these guys just aren't equipped for that. Their game is 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:09.600 built for over here, and it's it's just so different. 0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:14.240 So I think I'll go more towards guys who we've 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:17.040 seen do that, like Hideki Matsuyam at thirty five to one. 0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:20.560 He's played out of his mind well this year, especially 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:23.600 in tough conditions, and this course is a lot tougher 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:25.200 than the last three weeks so we've seen on the 0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:28.119